RSS
Tunisia Revolution Archives
February 06, 2012
Econ model for democracy survival
While the author's scepticism re the utility of the modelling is well advised, the two main countries chances as modelled sound right: Economic Growth and the Survival of New Democracies « Dart-Throwing Chimp
I’ll wrap this post up by going back to where we started, namely, the Middle East after the “Arab awakening.” Even though GDP growth doesn’t contribute much to it, the model’s overall performance isn’t bad. After looking at those ROC curves, I wondered what the model would say about the prospects for the survival of new democracies in three Arab countries on the cusp of new tries at democracy: Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Of the three, only Tunisia would already qualify as democratic by my definition, but Egypt and Libya are both in the midst of transitions from authoritarian rule that could put them over the threshold soon. So I took the IMF’s latest projections of their growth rates and plugged them into the model, along with recent data on their levels of economic development and my best guess as to whether or not they would qualify as acutely polarized according to the data set I used for that indicator. Here’s what came back as estimates of the probability that each of those new democracies would make it to their sixth birthday, assuming that, of the three, only Tunisia would not qualify as acutely polarized:
Tunisia: 82%
Egypt: 48%
Egypt is quite screwed.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 02, 2011
Washington Post tells Arab Spring to "Just Do It" with the Elections
Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post, basing herself on initial elections in post communist Poland apparently working to move democracy forward despite flaws, says that the lack of fully functional electoral procedures shouldn't delay getting people as a whole into the process of participation. Otherwise the old regimes' allies and like-minded in the state will reassert themselves or start a new despotism afresh.
Continue reading "Washington Post tells Arab Spring to "Just Do It" with the Elections"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 10, 2011
October Date Set for Tunisian Elections
It looks like it's official. Tunisian constitutional assembly ("Constituent Assembly") elections will be held in October, back from the initial July set date. October 23 to be exact.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
May 26, 2011
Tunsia, sideways: July, October - depends. (Electoral com vs gov)
The Tunisian elections situation is unfortunately not clarifying. Yesterday it was on, today it is to be delayed. The Independent Electoral Commission (who seem to be serious people) declaring that elections must imperatively be delayed to October. Their arguments are rational (the issue of large numbers of voters without proper identity cards, not on electoral lists - didn't really matter before one should think - are real and solid ones). What is worrisome is the lack of clear authority - the electoral commission taking the position it is their call (and why not). The Government withholding comment.
Frankly, October makes more sense, it's painfully clear that the elections apparatus is not going to be really ready in time (we're almost in June) and a fiasco of a first election I think is more damaging than a 3 month delay - so long as the delay is a one-off event.
The Canadian Press: Tunisie: la commission électorale décide le report des élections
Tunisie: la commission électorale décide le report des élections
De The Associated Press
TUNISIA, Tunisia — La Commission électorale indépendante persiste et signe: l'élection de l'Assemblée constituante, initialement prévue en Tunisie le 24 juillet, doit être reportée au 16 octobre.
Lors d'une conférence de presse jeudi après-midi, son président Kamel Jendoubi a justifié cette "décision" par des exigences de calendrier, sur la base des textes réglementaires régissant l'opération électorale.
Mardi, le gouvernement avait recommandé le maintien de la date initiale, malgré une première proposition de la commission favorable au report.
M. Jendoubi a longuement exposé devant les journalistes les délais nécessaires pour chaque étape de l'organisation du vote, depuis l'établissement des listes électorales jusqu'au dépôt des candidatures en passant par l'enregistrement des électeurs.
"Ce n'est pas de gaieté de coeur que nous avons décidé le report, mais le maintien de la date du 24 juillet aurait été beaucoup plus grave", a estimé Larbi Chouikha, membre de la commission, officiellement appelée "haute instance indépendante chargée de la préparation et de la supervision des élections".
Pour ce journaliste et universitaire, la commission avait pour souci de se conformer aux standards internationaux pour cette élection appelée à être "la première réellement libre, honnête et démocratique dans l'histoire de la Tunisie".
Il a, dans ce contexte, relevé de "nombreuses insuffisances et lacunes" techniques et logistiques que la commission se doit d'aplanir. Il a noté en particulier que quelque trois millions de citoyens ne figurent pas sur les listes électorales et des centaines de milliers d'autres ne disposent pas de cartes d'identité nationale ou détiennent des cartes anciennes non valides.
MM. Jendoubi et Chouikha ont éludé la question de savoir si la décision de la commission était définitive et irrévocable et si elle pouvait être remise en cause par le président de la République Fouad Mébazzaa et le gouvernement.
Interrogé sur ce point par l'Associated Press, le porte-parole du conseil des ministres Taïeb Baccouche s'est abstenu de tout commentaire. "La question sera examinée en conseil des ministres mardi prochain", a-t-il seulement indiqué.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
May 24, 2011
Tunisian election delay, October isn't a coup or
Sunday's demarche to delay the elections, noted here Tunisians split on call to delay free elections - The National is not a bad thing, given what I am seeing on preparation on the ground.
Not just an issue of the Islamist party being the only one with its act together, but it seems clear to me that in real terms, a few more months of organisation time is in fact needed (electoral lists, all kinds of organisational fundamentals). October is not deadly. Rather the push for July, opposition should push for benchmarks that October sticks.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:12 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
May 10, 2011
Tremors in Tunisia?
Curfews, demonstrations, crackdowns, dismissals of key figures, speculation on a coup, etc. in the birthplace of the Arab Spring, and it's not even summer yet. But maybe it's just the ups and downs of seasonal growth.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:29 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
April 25, 2011
As the Arab Spring Rolls, China Invades Carthage
China's deputy Commerce Minister Fu Ziying visits Tunisia, talking tourism and appliance manufacture investment.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 20, 2011
Carnegie + W Bank on NA and EU: True, False, Nuanced, Well-known?
Soliciting the experts regardng these summary statements via Carnegie and World Bank, below. Basic fact, nuanced, fundamentally off? I go with #1, but just confirming.
Continue reading "Carnegie + W Bank on NA and EU: True, False, Nuanced, Well-known?"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 01, 2011
The Economist Assesses Post-Revolution Tunisia
Via Gulf News, the Economist appraises the Punic wares. (UPDATE: Tunisian Finance Ministry predicts little or no growth in 2011.)
Continue reading "The Economist Assesses Post-Revolution Tunisia"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 02, 2011
Returning to Tunisia, and continued resignations
As my differing evaluations of Tunisia and Egypt have been questioned in comments, some further Tunisia reflexions. First, it is my judgement that the Tunisian events were fundamentally more "real" than Egypt - in Egypt the Army has long been the power behind the throne and is intimately involved in the operations of the Mubarek system and the economy. This was not at all the case in Tunisia. Quite the contrary. In Egypt, the military moving Mubarek out of the way was the same power changing masks. In Tunisia, the army is, to an extent, a wild card actor. Second, whereas in Egypt I see basically same system just changing its mask, in Tunisia, I see a groping towards something new - from the get go, The Tunisian interim Gov had real opposition members in it, whose places have gradually expanded. That has been a good thing, however it is my judgement now that the protesting parties are trending towards "maximalism" to a destabilising extent. Not every RCD & Ben Ali collaborator was a bad fellow, and at this time, it is as - perhaps more - important to focus on preparations for elections, rather than pushing for changing faces on what is in fact an interim government that must be changed in mere months anyway. Pushing for more face changes takes energy away from badly needed other activites - inside the Gov and outside the Gov.
Now, more resignations and illustration of my concerns, 4 senior government figures in 4 days:
Continue reading "Returning to Tunisia, and continued resignations"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:27 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
February 28, 2011
Tunisia, more resignations
Well, I hope this will calm spirits. Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
2.20pm - Tunisia: The Tunisian industry and technology minister has resigned from the government, according to the official TAP news agency.Unike Shaheen I don't think Ghannouchi was per se a bad fellow to be there, but damaged goods is damaged goods. If this allows movement forward, fine. But I worry that the hot-headed instant results oriented people will continue to push, at the expense of building more durable efforts, politics. In any case, in light of the events in Egypt, and especially in Libya, the Ghannouchi types come off looking comparatively good re mature politics.
Mohamed Afif Chelbi was one of only two remaining ministers who served in the cabinet under the ousted president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. His exit comes in the wake of yesterday's resignation of the prime minister, Mohamed Ghannouchi, who held the same post under Ben Ali.
Ghannouchi quit after renewed violent demonstrations in the country by protesters angry about ties of members of the post-revolution government to the old regime.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
February 27, 2011
Tunisian PM resigns, more protest deaths
While I am not per se favourable to Ghannouchi, I am worried by
Police Break Up Demonstrations in Tunis | Africa | English
Tunisia's interim Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi has announced his resignation, saying he hopes it will "help his successor work to solve the country's problems." The resignation was announced as police clashed with protesters, a day after three people were killed in anti-government protests.
While the desire to "cleanse" the government of anyone associated with Ben Ali is an understandable one, it is not - as Iraq showed - necessarily a good one in the short term. The technocrats with a mastery of issues, etc. are needed to help transition things, and further if all the people associated with Ben Ali are unceremoniously excluded, the options of destabilisation begins to look better for them.
Most of the issues Tunisia faces are ones needing long-term effort, removing faces is not going to create jobs, solve corruption nor allow policy stability to get the economy restarted. NOR will it allow the opposition to build proper political networks.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:56 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 25, 2011
Tunisia, Don't forget Tunisia.
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
Don't Forget Tunisia
25 Feb 2011 05:19 pm
J. Scott Carpenter says it is "going to need help from the international community - and a lot of it":
If Tunisia doesn't succeed, no other country in the region can. Tunisia's 10 million inhabitants do not suffer the ethnic and sectarian divisions that bedevil many of their neighbors. Tunisians are well educated and largely middle class -- 80 percent own their own homes. Nearly all Tunisians practice the same form of moderate Islam. The populace looks to Europe for its economic and political inspiration. The cry Tunisians made famous around the world during their revolution, "Dégage!" (Get out!), is tellingly in French, not Arabic.
The underlying article is good, but the emphasized parts are annoying. Just because someone speaks French or English well doesn't mean moderation. Tedious condensation that (doubtless the writer, a former State person, was a francophone). Same re "moderate Islam" - I understand why it has to be said in these articles but really it gets tiresome.
Let me suggest an alternative, "the ordinary, non-extremist Islam of most of the Islamic world..." - excepting the seriously retarded places, (AfPak, Gulf).
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:12 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 17, 2011
Ben Ali in Coma
Well he did indeed take that hard:
BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa
1613: News of Tunisia's ex-leader Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali - French news agency AFP quotes a source saying he is "in a coma".As an aside, I believe I suggested somewhere that Ben Ali genuinely saw himself as a real modernizer.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:24 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
February 08, 2011
Tunisia Appeal for Aid
A smart appeal, although I suspect the US, instead of investing in the country where it has the greatest liklihood of effect (and where it chose the side of Angels), will continue to pour billions down the Egyptian rat hole.
FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Tunisia appeals for aid to protect democracy
Tunisia’s interim prime minister, Mohammed Ghannouchi, has appealed for international funding to “protect the Tunisian experiment”, insisting that the cost “would be really very modest compared with what is at stake”.
He told The Financial Times in an interview there was no guarantee that the transition to democracy after the toppling of Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali as president last month would go smoothly. The popular uprising inspired protest campaigns across the Arab world, most notably in Egypt.
“There are forces that would like to take it back to square one,” he said. “All the people who have things they can reproach themselves for, who profited from the old system, are going to do all they can to hinder this democratic process.”
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Tunisia, the profile of faux econ liberalism
Now, the arty below I strongly suggest taking Gulfies complains about bureaucracy with a large grain of salt. Maghreb bureaucracies do follow the finest French traditions of inflexibility, but on the flip side my experience with Gulfies is that they expect all rules etc to be open to personal negotiation (e.g. adding on floors at a whim on approved building plans, etc.). There is a happy medium that neither side has achieved. In many respects I prefer the Maghreb side as at least there are genuine institutions, rather than generalised personal fiat.
FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Tunisia left with an investment mirage
Tunisia was always heralded, by itself and others, as a magnet for Gulf investment. But just as the political unrest of the past month has given the lie to its political stability, another mirage is the country’s image as a prime investment destination, Gulf investors say.
They complain of a combination of grinding bureaucracy, corrupt demands and interference from the family of the former president Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali. The impact of the global financial crisis added a further burden to many landmark foreign investments.
“Gulf businessmen found out that corruption in Tunisia wasn’t the corruption they were used to,” says one Tunisian banker. “You pay to get in, but you don’t get a service in return.”
Statistics suggest that the UAE is the largest investor in Tunisia, with more than $30bn of foreign direct investment.
Yet Gulf businesses may have promised grandiose plans but in reality have only mobilised a much smaller amount of capital. While Tunis Sports City is the most advanced UAE project in the country, Bukhatir is still only believed to have invested a tiny fraction of the $5bn cost.
“Bukhatir has been deeply committed to the development and remains focused towards Tunisia’s long-term growth prospects,” the company said in a statement.
Gulf investors say most deals, even those that went through government agencies and ministries, eventually ended up with some sort of financial demands from the broader family of Ben Ali, from bribes to finalise the transfer of land to fully fledged joint ventures.
Emphasis added.
The item re The Family is important. By all accounts I have from professional partners in Tunisia, the Trabelsis (mostly but not only) got quite rapacious in the past decade and it only escalated in the past 5 years as a sense of impunity grew. Raises questions I may add, parenthetically, about Transparency Int'l indices.
The other item here is the Vapour Ware effect of Gulfie investments, particularly Dubai / UAE investors who have not given up on their 'minimal direct capital, maximum effort to flip on speculation' - the speculation and flipping strategy being why they're so keen on the big announcements effect. A leveraged strategy they're still trying even now. That's in contrast with the Kuwaitis who tend to eschew that, and actually put in the hard capital and get something done before crowing about it.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:54 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
February 03, 2011
Retrospective on the Progression of Riots in Tunisia
The way riots spread from rural Tunisia to urban Tunisia was through rural exodus and timing coincidence. The details about what occured when exactly vary according to versions - but they generally involve repression during a market day. The most likely version is that Bouazizi's immolation, or his relatives' angry reaction against the administration, would have happened then.
That is, when his relatives started throwing rocks at the police station and/or the governorate and/or the town hall buildings, police reacted with their usual violence, and that further angered the people in the market. Snowball effect to nearby towns and then to the usual unrestive interior and southern Tunisia. Center-coastal (the usual source of the ruling and economic elite) and North (center of power with Tunis) joined only later, when the relatives of interior and southern Tunisians who moved to the capital for economic reasons reacted. They started rioting against the police because of the repression going on in their villages, building up from a few incidents in some working class neighbourhoods of Tunis to a widespread movement.
Continue reading "Retrospective on the Progression of Riots in Tunisia"
Posted by Shaheen at 12:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Harper's Interpretation of Canadian Immigration Law
1) Said Jaziri, professional idiot, cromanion imam, lawful permanent resident, Canadian family, risking torture under the Ben Ali regime. Deported.
2) Belhassen Trabelsi, psychopath, godfather at the top of a totalitarian state, searched by Interpol, came to Canada one week ago. Difficult to deport.
Posted by Shaheen at 11:26 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?
A very short answer, only in the delusional imaginations of certain Americans.
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?
08 Feb 2011 05:19 pm
by Conor Friedersdorf
Above Mickey Kaus surmises yes, and Bob Wright forcefully insists no. On this one, I agree with Bob, and I've never understood why seeing the United States military invade a country and establish a democracy would inspire revolutions elsewhere. It was never ignorance of democracy's existence that was stopping other Arab populations from rising up – and it isn't as if "get invaded by America" was a viable strategy or a desired thing elsewhere.
Continue reading "Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:21 AM | Comments (0)
January 30, 2011
Rached Ghannouchi Returns to Tunisia (with rant on Anti-Islamist Panic)
Exiled Ennahda party leader Rached Ghannouchi was received by enthusiastic crowd when his plane landed. Given that he is somewhat of an Islamist, apparenlty his presence doesn't count as a step towards True Democracy, in the proposals of Robert Satloff, who wants the US to sponsor a new wave of Arab democratic government which would, apparently, not allow any non-secular or at least Islamist party to participate. In other words, the same thing all over again, a Ben Ali, only with multiple parties. Rant below, on anti-Islamist Panic.
Continue reading "Rached Ghannouchi Returns to Tunisia (with rant on Anti-Islamist Panic)"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
January 29, 2011
Late notes on Tunisia
One of the interesting signs of maturity in this revolution was the self-organizing of neighbourhood watches to protect against the ex-Republican Guards turned looting psychopathic militias.
Continue reading "Late notes on Tunisia"
Posted by Shaheen at 03:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
