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Libya Civil War Archives
March 07, 2012
Bad Libyan Developments
My cautious optimism in the area of Libya was a bit damaged of late, the reporting on this yesterday out of the Maghreb was somewhat more discouraging than this: Eastern Libya Demands Measure of Autonomy
Although one can make a nuanced argument for Federalism as a good choice for Libya, intellectualising the situation doesn't hide the underlying reality of what is driving this, local particularisms that are armed and not learned in the ways of compromise (thanks to the Guide to be sure).
If the National Council does not get rather more wise, Libya may well go to Civil War Phase II. A few weeks ago I would have given this only a 15% chance. I'll double that now, given what I am hearing.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:34 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 25, 2012
Libyan situ commentary, Americans thinking Berbers were Pro Qadhdhafi...
Reproducing a comment I made on a pretension to an analysis of the Libyan situation (via Sullivan):
The author, who seems to suffer from the typical "small wars" military/security commentator disease of superficial half understanding, advances some fairly questionable observations (although I wouldn't disagree with the thesis that the Libyan experience does not encourage an intervention in Syria - in fact I agree).
A Preliminary Evaluation of the U.S. Intervention in Libya » Gunpowder & Lead
We’re just over a year past the beginning of the uprisings in Libya that ultimately produced (along with, of course, NATO’s intervention) Muammar Qaddafi’s ouster. And there are now increasing calls for some form of military intervention in Syria. As such, this seems like an important time to evaluate the aftermath of NATO’s intervention in Libya, and how it intersects with American interests.
Essentially, there is a dearth of information publicly available about the state of affairs in Libya, but we nonetheless know a number of facts unambiguously:
Unfortunately the facts advanced are not facts.
The TNC has yet to establish its authority within Tripoli. However well-meaning its endeavors may be, they are not being executed or enforced outside a very small geographic area.
The overwhelming majority of the country is ruled by local militias under commanders with no accountability or common code of conduct.
True enough.
Several towns (including Zintan, Misrata, and Benghazi) are dominated by local warlords who have power equal to, or greater than, the capital. Indeed, the emergence of a western council in the Nafusa Mountains that directly opposes the TNC is a testament to its weakness.
More Zintan and Mistrata, Benghazi is in fact Benghazi is the 'national' government's power base.
Qaddafi loyalists (more tribal than ideological in nature) have successfully retaken Bani Walid, and have not been displaced.
Well, to call the Bani Walid incident an issue of Qadhdhafi "loyalists" is bootstrapping. It is, as noted in parentheses, a tribal issue.
The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group is well established in parts of Tripoli and Derna. Its rise is directly correlated to attacks against Sufi shrines, and the movement of foreign volunteers going to fight in Syria.
Not unexpected.
There has been a rash of ongoing retaliatory ethnic and tribal fighting against communities perceived to be pro-Qaddafi, most notably Tuaregs, Berbers, and black Africans.
As I note below this just shows a complete lack of knowledge of Libya. Calling the Berbers a community "perceived to be pro-Qaddafi" is pure nonsense.
The influx of weaponry and returning Tuareg mercenaries after Qaddafi’s fall has helped to destabilize a not-inconsiderable part of Mali. Violent incidents occurring in Algeria, Niger, and Tunisia have also been traced back to Libya.
Well, yes. But the cat was out of the bag well before hand, and in evaluating the situation it is dishonest to cite incidents in Tunisia (post-Revolution rather rare) and glossing over the pre-Revolution, Qadhdhafi backed incidents.
The destabilised part of Mali, the vast desert expanse where the Tuareq live is "not -inconsiderable" however it is also virtually unpopulated Sahara. Nor has it been particularly stable pre-Libyan revolution. AQIM and the Tuareq on-and-off again rebellions / banditism are issues that pre-existed the Libyan revolution and hardly can be blamed on it. An outflow of Taureq mercenaries post-Libyan revolution was always going to happen.
The incidents that I am aware of re Algeria are all quite marginal, and trivial relative to Algeria's ongoing and pre-existing security problem.
My comment was:
I am afraid it is very hard to take seriously an analysis that contains the phrase “There has been a rash of ongoing retaliatory ethnic and tribal fighting against communities perceived to be pro-Qaddafi, most notably Tuaregs, Berbers, and black Africans.”
The Berbers (who are the same people as the warlords of the Nafusa Mountains – the appellation itself is one preferred by the Berber speaking community), are most certainly not perceived as pro-Qadhdhafi. Quite the contrary, they are well known as among the most antti-Qadhdhafi communities in Libya. To write the above rather highlights a lack of knowledge about Libya.
The Tuareq (themselves, of course, linguistically Berber, but distant from the settled Berberophone communities) are another matter, having long served as mercenaries for Qadhdhafi – particularly the Taureq from Mali, for reasons particularly their own.
The Black African attacks, however, are nothing new. Populist violence against Black Africans has long been a feature of Libyan society, and was rarely punished with any real severity. Resentment againts The Guide pissing away billions on his African dreams and old racism in Libyan society, not a Libyan revolution, are the reasons.
This is, overall, a silly, superficial analysis.
For the issue of no interests, the primary interest was not having a counter-revolutionary Qadhdhafi – after the inevitable massacres in Benghazi – destabilising Tunisia and Egypt. Already before his own revolution started, in Tunisia there were credible signs of Qadhdhafi funding the Benalistes, issues that not-at-all-coincidentally evaporated once Qadhdhafi had his hands full on home territory.
As for Good Will in the Arab Street for the Americans, no magic wands exist, but in the Maghreb where I operate as an investor and have for a decade, this gets positive comment.
In all, a rather dishonest or stupid evaluation.
I would add to this comment that the underlying point that Libya does not encourage the idea that intervening in Syria. One need not, however, indulge in factual misrepresentations (or just plain ignorance) to make that point.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:20 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
May 15, 2011
Libya & The Berber Mountain Resistance
Following up on this note back in February, on the Libyan Berbers Revolt, it is not surprising that the Berbers in the mountains are holding out, despite getting - it would appear - almost zero outside assistance (unlike the apparently generally incompetent fighters from Benghazi, or the competent and rather more interesting Misrata group):
New York Times has a fine graphic on Libyan Rebels in the Western Mountains well worth a look. Were I a NATO planner, I would be very interested in getting material to the Mountains to open up a hard to crack south-western front and bump up the pressure and paranoia in Tripoli. Of course I have a soft spot for the Chleuh.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
May 02, 2011
Libyan reactions on Al Jazeera, re Ben Laden
Interesting street interviews in Ben Ghazi by Al Jazeera, just watching. Generally quite positive, several tying Ben Laden style to Gadhdhafi, or shrugging off to make statements ..
Western allies seem to have a good bit of decent goodwill in Eastern Libya, even among a few who seemed rather Salafi...
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 30, 2011
Moussa "Anti Israeli demagogue"
This rather strikes me as a sad indication of the extreme Israel centric lens through which US commentators, that the focus of this Anti Amr Moussa article is on his Israel stance, Moussa: The Anti-Israel Demagogue Who Will Likely Be Egypt’s Next President | The New Republic rather than on his rudderless demagorery (of which the Israel baiting is least remarkable). Rather more damning as to his political instincts is this re Libya, which actually more or less ran counter to popular feeling:
The Obama administration got a taste of Moussa’s anti-Western populism as it tried to build international support for intervening in Libya. Although the Arab League initially voted to back the no-fly zone on March 12, Moussa lambasted the attacks on Qaddafi’s forces a week later, telling Egypt’s state-run Middle East News Agency, “What we want is the protection of civilians and not the shelling of more civilians.” And though Moussa issued yet another reversal two days later—this time restating the Arab League’s support for action against Qaddafi—his inelegant 360 should be a reminder that he has made his bones bucking the West. So while the fall of Mubarak raises hopes that Egypt will enjoy a post-authoritarian future, the prominence of Moussa threatens to revive Egypt’s anti-Western, Nasser-era past. And, most alarmingly, this is apparently what many Egyptians want.
As for the last item, well after Mubarek's bankrupt slavishness (and double-talk on a popular Egyptian level, not as if the Mubarek regime actually promoted at an educational / advocacy level pro Western orientations, rather the contrary), it is absolutely no surprise that many Egyptians harken back to the Nasser era and the perception of independence. That I think is not in itself problematic. Indeed, rather it could be healthy. Now, if it also means a roll-back of liberalisation, that is not good. However, as one sees with Tunisia, liberalisation done at the service of an oligarchy that corruptly eliminates competition tends to give a bad name to liberalisation.
The real indictment of Amr Moussa is his shiftless opportunism and consistent bad judgment.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:35 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
April 29, 2011
Tunisian spillover: Qadhdhafi forces cross frontier
This has some unpleasant implications for spillover, as Pro-Gaddafi forces clash with Tunisian military | Energy & Oil | Reuters
By Zoubeir Souissi
DEHIBA, Tunisia, April 29 (Reuters) - Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi crossed into neighbouring Tunisia and fought a gun battle with Tunisian troops in a frontier town on Friday as Libya's conflict spilled beyond its borders.
Pro-Gaddafi forces fired shells into the town of Dehiba, damaging buildings and injuring at least one resident, and a group of them drove into the town in a truck, local people and a Reuters photographer in the town said.
The Libyan government troops were pursuing anti-Gaddafi rebels from the restive Western Mountains region of Libya who fled into Tunisia in the past few days after Gaddafi forces overran the border post the rebels had earlier seized.
"There were lots of clashes in the town this morning. Lots of gunshots. The Tunisian military clashed with Gaddafi's forces ... Some of Gaddafi's people were killed," said Reuters photographer Zoubeir Souissi from the town.
"There are a lot of Gaddafi's people who were injured. They are in the hospital in Dehiba," he said.
Two residents also told Reuters that shells had fallen on the town from pro-Gaddafi positions across the border in Libya.
"Rounds from the bombardment are falling on houses.... A Tunisian woman was injured," one of the residents, called Ali, told Reuters by telephone.
...
"Given the gravity of what has happened... the Tunisian authorities have informed the Libyans of their extreme indignation and demand measures to put an immediate stop to these violations," a statement from the foreign ministry said.
Friday's clashes marked the first time that Libyan government ground forces had crossed the border and entered a Tunisian town.
... Tunisia toppled its own veteran leader, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, in a revolution earlier this year and many people there are sympathetic to the rebels fighting Gaddafi's forces. (Additional reporting by Tarek Amara and Matthew Tostevin in Tunis and Hamid Ould Ahmed in Algiers; Writing by Christian Lowe; Editing by Matthew Tostevin)
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:23 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
April 28, 2011
Syrian silences
The reporting here, U.N. Security Council Rebuffs Push to Criticize Syria - NYTimes.com is more than slightly wrong-headed:
By NEIL MacFARQUHAREmphasis added. No, it did not evaporate, it merely was tied to Libyan specificities, notably the fact that Qadhdhafi has few to no friends (and mostly paid supporters). The Assad regime has always been rather more clever and savvy than The Guide. Not an amazing benchmark one must admit, but a real difference. There was never any general willingness to intervene, in Libya it was always and continues to be a case of Qadhdhafi having left himself zero sympathy.
Published: April 27, 2011
UNITED NATIONS — An attempt by the United States and its European allies to condemn Syria in the United Nations Security Council was rebuffed on Wednesday, as the willingness to intervene in the region — strong enough to lead to military action against Libya under similar circumstances just weeks ago — appeared to evaporate.
Of course additionally we should recall that the Assad regime, other than re Lebanon (which Syrian nationalists of all stripes have a hard time accepting as a real independent entity), behaves itself in re neighbours, and has for a while now.
On the flip side, Qadhdhafi neither behaves himself well, nor showed any signs of refraining (e.g. Tunisia) from mucking around to up-end results he did not like (the democratic revolutions, such as they are).
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 01, 2011
Cease Fire Offers; FM Pulls a Rudolf Hess
What's a Guide to do? (Cease-fire offer sounds like something with no incentive for Qadhdhafi. And what's up with Musa Kusa showing up and chillin' in Britain of a sudden? Hasn't that happened before? For those who don't know, Musa Kusa was foreign minister for Libya and not a Greco-Arabic dish.)
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 29, 2011
Observation from Tunisians re Libya
Briefly, heard the opinion from Tunisians, from cab drivers to bankers, that they were glad the French, British and Americans are supporting the rebellion because "If Qadhdhafi can, he will take his vengeance on us, for we set off this [changes] and he hates it." Meanwhile the to and fro continue. Recent events rather indicate that until the Rebellion begins to create some disciplined forces, gains are illusionary.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 28, 2011
Libyan Progress, Syrian questions.
The quick turnaround may stifle some overdone gloom and doom, (Libya and Arab unrest – live blog | World news | guardian.co.uk) although of course just as gloom and doom was overdone, it would be
• Libyan rebels have pushed west towards Gaddafi's home city of Sirte. The revolutionary forces seized towns along Libya's coastal road towards the town after government forces fled western air strikes. A Libyan rebel spokesman said Sirte had been captured by the rebels on Monday morning, but this hasn't been independently verified.Meanwhile, it is hard to make out what may occur in Syria. On one hand it would be excellent if the Baathist regime in Syria was shown the door, it's decades of incompetence really are enough. On the other hand, the region hardly needs yet another country to descend into chaos. Much fun this may present to the Polisci types that love whanking over such developments, for business this level of uncertainty, just not helpful. I hope that Assad el Ibn is clever and modern enough to somehow work a transition. The Baath party is rubbish, but the Alaouite minority could be in for some rough times if a revolution occurs.
• Rebel forces have taken a number of government-held oil towns including Brega, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad in the rapid push west along 150 miles of Libya's coastal road towards Sirte. There have been rumours that the outskirts of Gaddafi's home city have been mined.
On Lounsbury front, I am on a major bizdev mission for travel for several weeks, so posting may be irregular (if anyone ever finds me a ref to a bberry app that is compatible with this blog software, I may be willing to bribe them).
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:48 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Libyan Progress, Syrian questions.
The quick turnaround may stifle some overdone gloom and doom, (Libya and Arab unrest – live blog | World news | guardian.co.uk) although of course just as gloom and doom was overdone, it would be
• Libyan rebels have pushed west towards Gaddafi's home city of Sirte. The revolutionary forces seized towns along Libya's coastal road towards the town after government forces fled western air strikes. A Libyan rebel spokesman said Sirte had been captured by the rebels on Monday morning, but this hasn't been independently verified.Meanwhile, it is hard to make out what may occur in Syria. On one hand it would be excellent if the Baathist regime in Syria was shown the door, it's decades of incompetence really are enough. On the other hand, the region hardly needs yet another country to descend into chaos. Much fun this may present to the Polisci types that love whanking over such developments, for business this level of uncertainty, just not helpful. I hope that Assad el Ibn is clever and modern enough to somehow work a transition. The Baath party is rubbish, but the Alaouite minority could be in for some rough times if a revolution occurs.
• Rebel forces have taken a number of government-held oil towns including Brega, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad in the rapid push west along 150 miles of Libya's coastal road towards Sirte. There have been rumours that the outskirts of Gaddafi's home city have been mined.
On Lounsbury front, I am on a major bizdev mission for travel for several weeks, so posting may be irregular (if anyone ever finds me a ref to a bberry app that is compatible with this blog software, I may be willing to bribe them).
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 24, 2011
A wee oversight: sanctions cut rebels cash, access to arms
Now, one would have hoped that this would have been worked out, given past experience (from Libya crisis: live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk):
4.32pm: In his update to MPs, William Hague said Libya's National Oil Corporation would be subject to sanctions (12.46pm). The tightening of the economic noose on Gaddafi means the regime has been cut off from oil revenues. But economic sanctions will also hit the opposition, points out Samuel Ciszuk, a Middle East energy analyst with the IHS consultancy.Additionally by all accounts they are also fully subject to the arms embargo. Well that's really very very precious. The Guide already has the stocks he likely needs, so sanctions are a bit of high-mindedness without much effect, and he's by all accounts got major cash reserves on hand. So, the main effect of sanctions in the near term would appear to be to hobble the Rebellion. Brilliant.
The state-owned NOC subsidiary, the Arabian Gulf Oil Co. (AGOCO), the upstream, midstream and downstream infrastructure of which the opposition largely controls, has been named as a sanctioned entity, making any near-time efforts to sell crude through the eastern oil port of Marsa El-Harigh for now, rather impossible. For the opposition movement, which cannot fall back on rumoured large gold reserves, this poses a significant immediate problem.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:50 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Libya: American hand wringing, the Iraq Complex
I saw this on Kevin Drum's blog, Libya's Thousand-Man Rebellion | Mother Jones and left comment, reacting to:
A thousand men? If that's true, then there's virtually no chance of Qaddafi losing this war. For this and other reasons, Adam Garfinkle believes it's almost a certainty that the French and British will have to send in ground troops if they're genuinely committed to expelling Qaddafi, and this in turn could spell trouble for us:
Emphasis added.So what happens if the French and British try but do not succeed in a reasonably expeditious way? What happens is about as obvious as it gets: not Suez happens. The Americans come and save the day, as they demurred from doing in October 1956. The French and British know in their heart of hearts that we cannot let them fail miserably at this, or that’s what they suppose. I suppose they’re right.
What this means is that the President may before very long be forced to make the most excruciating decision of his life: to send American soldiers into harm’s way to save the Western alliance—even from an operation that is not explicitly a NATO mission!—in a contingency that has no strategic rationale to begin with; or not, leaving the alliance in ruins and Qaddafi bursting with plans to exact revenge.
What's worse, even if Garfinkle is being unduly pessimistic and we manage to oust Qaddafi successfully, we still don't seem to have any idea whether the rebellious tribes are really any better for Libya or for us than the tribes currently aligned with Qaddafi. Helluva war we have going here.
My comment is quoted below as well, but I would preface it by two further remarks. First, Qadhdhafi already as early as the first declarations that he "had to go" by the West (before intervention, in the early days of the protests that mutated into rebellion), was already bursting with plans to exact revenge. Indeed, as my Tunisian colleague can confirm, there were credible reports that he had already begun to fuck with Tunisia by funding / supporting agentes provocateurs from the old regime, and saw Tunisia and Egypt as Western plots. I further note that one has to be extraordinarily ignorant to propose that there is an equivalence between the Rebellion and The Guide.
Regardless, as I lay out in my comment, the Libyan Eggs of Stability were already broken by the time Sarko forced intervention, pissing and moaning as if the choice was about some form of stability or intervention (as was the case in Iraq) is sheer idiocy. This without even counting the negative influence of the image of the West moaning about Qadhdhafi as he massacred the opposition, leaving the inevitable insurgency in the hands of the 'Told you so' Takfiris.
It is fine to argue against intervention, but advance alternatives to actual reality, do not piously pretend that Humpty Dumpty had not in fact fallen.... My comment then:
Continue reading "Libya: American hand wringing, the Iraq Complex"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Useful thoughts on intervention: realism, not pessimism re Libya
This note in The Best Defense | FOREIGN POLICY is very useful and adult, given the hyperventilating "ohmygod we're in Iraq part II or Somalia"going on (and perhaps also useful also to the dismissive types that think that putting Western troops in is a great next step):
Everybody's going all wobbly over Libya, except those who never liked the idea in the first place. Tom's advice: Calm down. We have done what we set out to do in Libya. We kicked the door down, and with radars and SAM sites degraded, have made it possible for lesser air forces to patrol the skies over Qaddafi.
We should now say, OK, we have created the conditions, time for you all to have the courage of your convictions. The goal now for the United States, I think, is a negative one: To not be conducting a no-fly zone over Libya 5 years or even 5 months from now. If the French and Italians want to park the good ships Charles de Gaulle and Garibaldi off the Libyan coast, good. And if the Arab states want to maintain an air cap over Benghazi, fine. Step right up, fellas.
As for the American military, let's knock off the muttering in the ranks about clear goals and exit strategies. Fellas, you need to understand this is not a football game but a soccer match. For the last 10 years, our generals have talked about the need to become adaptable, to live with ambiguity. Well, this is it
Illustrative of the challenges, from yesterday's Libya crisis: live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
10.30am: Time magazine has a good piece on the difficulties - understandable enough - the rebels in Benghazi have in cobbling together an effective alternative government and fighting force at the same time.Emphasis added: very obviously this is something that the Guide has promoted from the get go (the distrust among parties) and something that is not easy to solve. On the other hand, Western advisors on the ground may be helpful in (i) hammering some sense into the activist types with their fuzzy beliefs, and (ii) helping act as a spine stiffening to discourage disintegration / side switching.
"The big problem here is that most of the revolutionary guys don't trust the military people because a lot of military guys were with Gaddafi from the start," says Najla Elmangoush, a criminal-law professor at Benghazi's Garyounis University and an activist at council headquarters. "We welcomed them when they joined," she adds. "But people are concerned that maybe they'll try anytime to change sides." The regime is trying to encourage that fear, spreading false rumors last weekend that rebel commander Younis had returned to the regime's camp.
Also worthy of attention, this report
In Tripoli, Airstrike Damage and a More Outspoken Population - NYTimes.com which I note by the fact that officers in Tripoli were willing to hint at ... support to the Coalition airstrikes, is very indicative that while not entirely mercenary (as some would have it, lapping up the Rebellion propaganda) it is fragile.
But Capt. Abdul Baset Ali, a Libyan naval officer, said no one had been injured or killed because the Libyan government had expected the attack and evacuated.Emphasis added.
“Nobody was here because we knew this place may be targeted, so we went far away,” he said. Asked what the future holds for Libya, he said: “Nobody knows. We hope it will be good.”
One military officer, asking for anonymity so he could speak openly, said that he respected the Western goal of establishing a no-fly zone to protect Libyan civilians, but that the broad scope of the attacks risked creating a backlash. “This is not the way to shift out Qaddafi,” he said.
Though the airstrikes do not appear to have led to any new uprising against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi here, there was evidence that they had had a significant psychological impact. On an organized stroll through the old city with Qaddafi government minders, several Tripoli residents approached foreign journalists to offer their disdain or impatience with the Qaddafi government. Sometimes they spoke within just a few yards of a government representative.
Offered the bromide that it was a beautiful country, one man replied in perfect English, “It will be after we change the system.”
This is all the more reason to not engage either in magical thinking about the nature or capacity of the Rebellion, or in undue pessimism. A dash of realism and thus an ability to address the Rebellion's weaknesses (CLANDESTINLY forGov's sake I hope the governments suck up the negative press and keep things on the down low) can make this happen. In any case, one has to be equally realistic about the actual menu of choices, which do actually include Libya just slipping peacefully back into slumber under the chaos of the permanent revolution. Those eggs are broken.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 22, 2011
Non binaries: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War?
The NY Times poses this burning question: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War? - NYTimes.com Well, it's not an either or, now is it?
A bit unfair perhaps, but I find the answer to their question:
Is the battle for Libya the clash of a brutal dictator against a democratic opposition, or is it fundamentally a tribal civil war?To be "Yes."
Or more shortly, it is clearly not just a tribal civil war, although it could evolve in that direction, but neither is the opposition abstract democrats. They oppose Qadhdhafi (an eminently sensible position regardless of one's politics). After that....
“It is a very important question that is terribly near impossible to answer,” said Paul Sullivan, a political scientist at Georgetown University who has studied Libya. “It could be a very big surprise when Qaddafi leaves and we find out who we are really dealing with.”Well, I shouldn't think it is a surprise as such. One is dealing with a chaotic melange of people who hate Qadhdhafi, which as reflected in even the wider Arab public's response, is "pretty much anyone of any political flavour, excepting only those people directly supported and/or related to him."
Of course saying he only has mercenaries, as I have noted in passing on several occasions, is a wee bit too simple. His support is more fundamentally of a tribal logic.
Returning to the opposition, there are clearly some nasty people there, ex-regime figures who are not particularly wonderful folks, Islamists of a quasi-Takfiri inclination, etc.
I'd hazard the opinion that there are precious few liberal democratic types in Libya, so expecting a Liberal Democratic Revolution is the height of idiocy.
Nevertheless, insofar as Qadhdhafi unleashed hell in response to the demonstrations, and the Eggs of Stability are already broken, one has to move forward with that reality (this in contrast with the Iraq situation, where Bush ibn Bush willfully and with precious little understanding, started breaking eggs - an active choice).
The behavior of the fledgling rebel government in Benghazi so far offers few clues to the rebels’ true nature.Errr, no. It offers lots of clues. First of which, they're not a unitary movement, second of which they don't have a "True Nature" in a unitary sense, and that this chaotic mix can go in a lot of different directions - probably bad directions but certainly bad directions if there is no countervailing influence.
Further to that, I find this sort of writing just strange (although after typing that I stopped to think, well, the Journo needs to convey that the heroic image of the freedom fighter and the credence given by many to the claims out of the Rebellion, needs, ahem, some nauncing):
Like the Qaddafi government, the operation around the rebel council is rife with family ties. And like the chiefs of the Libyan state news media, the rebels feel no loyalty to the truth in shaping their propaganda, claiming nonexistent battlefield victories, asserting they were still fighting in a key city days after it fell to Qaddafi forces, and making vastly inflated claims of his barbaric behavior.Marhaben il Libya, bled al Jamahiriyah.
Let's just say that nothing about Libyan political culture over the past 50 years has built anything like objectivity into public discourse (if I may engage in moderate understatement).
As to the notes on violence, this is in fact a good thing to highlight:
In the neighborhoods of the capital that have staged major peaceful protests against Colonel Qaddafi, many have volunteered — speaking on the condition of anonymity — that their demonstrations were nonviolent mainly because they could not obtain weapons fast enough.Emphasis added.
Even one religious leader associated with Sufism — a traditionally pacifist sect something like the Islamic equivalent of the Quakers — lamented his own tribe’s lack of guns for the fight.
That stands in sharp contrast to Libya’s neighbors, Tunisia and Egypt. In Egypt, in particular, the young leaders of the revolution were so seized with an ethic of nonviolence that in the middle of winning a battle of thrown stones against a loyalist mob, two young protesters said they believed they had lost, simply because they had resorted to violence.
Sufism is not a pacifist sect like the Quakers. It's not even a "sect" - it is an approach to worship, like Charismatics in Christianity.
I have no idea why Westerners can't get it fucking right re Sufism. It appears that pacifist quasi Quaker stuff sold by Indian Swamis in the 1960s can't be removed from English speaking consciousness.
Aside from that, the contrast with Tunisia and Egypt is correct: Egypt and Tunisia are relatively modernized societies, Tunisia more than Egypt, and
Of course expecting Non Violence to be a preferred methodology (this reminds me of Andrew Sullivan's idiocy a few days ago on this subject) in the face of The Guide, who rather obviously has few compunctions about violence, is more than a bit precious.
Continue reading "Non binaries: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War?"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:53 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
March 21, 2011
Libya Reactions in region
Illustrative to BBC News's note from this AM
1120: So far criticism of the Libya operation in the region has been surprisingly muted, the BBC's Jonathan Head reports from Cairo. He adds: "Even Arab countries like Syria, which are known to be unhappy about international intervention, have said little. Those, like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, who offered to join the coalition, say they are still on board. Even more striking is the absence of anti-western demonstrations in Arab cities. Deep-rooted suspicion of the West has been eclipsed by public sympathy for the Libyan opposition, and abhorrence of Col Gaddafi. In any case, many Arab countries are too distracted by their own political upheavals to devote much attention to events in Libya.
1918: Another Algerian man, Amine, told Focus on Africa: "What do I think of Gadaffi? He's a tyrant. A madman. A criminal. We've known that for a long time. I think it's good that they are bombing now, but it should have been done a long time ago."
1912: The BBC's Focus on Africa has been hearing the reactions from Algeria to the foreign intervention in Libya. Abdelahmed said Algerians were "concerned about our Libyan brothers" and hope the violence ends soon. "If the UN bombing is to stop the violence that's being carried out by Gaddafi against the Libyan people, then that is a good thing."
Uneasiness, but Qadhdhafi built himself a deep well of negative capital.
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March 20, 2011
Clever very clever, the Guide: ceasefire for Civilian march from Tripoli to Benghazi....
Now this is a very clever move indeed (BBC News - Live: Libya crisis):
1901: The ceasefire was being ordered after taking into account the civilian deaths, and the destruction of civilian and military buildings, the Libyan government spokesman told reporters. He said all citizens were urged to participate in a peaceful march from Tripoli to Benghazi.Get some cameras on apparent civilians, broadcast, one has cover for movements... And a means to get Amr Moussa saying flagrantly hypocritical shite on TV.
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The Fragile Arab support (Arab League condemns air strikes)
Keeping in mind my note (which referenced Don't exaggerate Arab support for Libya No Fly Zone | Marc Lynch), on cue, Amr Musa (who's a loathsome toad who blows in the wind..., but regardless) criticizes Western strikes on Libya
"What has happened in Libya differs from the goal of imposing a no-fly zone and what we want is the protection of civilians and not bombing other civilians," Arab League secretary general Amr Mussa told reporters.This is a bit of theatre on the part of Musa, but on the other hand should not be discounted as pure theatre.
On March 12, the Arab League urged the United Nations to impose a no-fly zone on Libya and said Moammar Gadhafi’s regime had "lost legitimacy" as it sought to snuff out a rebellion designed to oust him from power.
Further thoughts below:
Continue reading "The Fragile Arab support (Arab League condemns air strikes)"
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March 19, 2011
Libya Intervention Nuances
As a close to the evening, some nuances. Listneing to BBC I heard an American Lt. General - missed the name - engage in that very American military analysis of others characters, saying he did not expect Qadhdhafi to stick after more pressure, that he lacked the "good moral centre" and that he would "remove himself from Libya"... Queer analysis, that's what people seem to have been writing since this started. I can't say I had a sense from the US military types interviewed they really have gotten beyond a terribly colonial view of Arabs. I rather predict his predictions that this will be over in days, weeks "not months" will not prove out.
But regardless, in conversations with various MENA colleagues of mine, a nuance about support for this intervention. Now that there are actual planes in the air, a contradictory reaction has emerged in the conversations, the Qadhdhafi anti-colonial rhetoric echoes a bit. I think Mark Lynch is right - very right - to warn that in-region (and probably in-Libya) support for the intervention is thin and fragile.
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France over Benghazi.
Well, the French seem to have already put their money on the table, as Libya live blog (guardian.co.uk) reports French aircraft already patroling over Benghazi.
I hope the rebels don't accidentally soot at one.
4.35pm: I've just spoken to my colleague Chris McGreal in Benghazi where rebel forces have pushed back Gaddafi's forces from the city after intense fighting in which scores of civilians and fighters were killed.
...
He says there is a real wariness among the rebels that Gaddafi's forces were able to penetrate the city's defences and take over areas of what has been the main rebel stronghold in Libya since the uprising began.
Many residents also feel let down by the West because it delayed taking military action after the UN resolution was passed. They believe they will not be safe until Gaddafi is deposed or dead.
4.15pm: Here's a summary of events this afternoon
•Military action has begun against Libya, with French jets seen in the skies over Benghazi. Six Danish F-16s have arrived at the US air base at Sigonella, Sicily on Saturday and will be ready for operation Sunday. Canada has committed six CF-18 jets,and Canadian aircraft landed at the Prestwick Airport south-west of Glasgow, Scotland to refuel.
It's begun. The Benghazi residents shouldn't feel let down, in fact they're damned lucky people are betting on them. Now they have to get their acts together.
BBC: BBC News - Live: Libya crisis
1748: French aircraft have destroyed four Libyan tanks in air strikes to the south-west of Benghazi, Al-Jazeera television has reported.This may stop Benghazi, but.... unless the rebels get organized, the Guide can always swing around and outflank (or enter into city and allow confusion to give them cover - both sides same equip...)
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Fighting in Benghazi (Guide's super special 'cease fire')
First, on the SATs it appears foreign embassies are being seized in Tripoli if the banderole is right.
Second, someone in comments naively asked about the cease fire, As the Guardian Libya live blog (guardian.co.uk) it had as much content as I thought. That is none:
12.25pm: This video shows the rebels' only fighter jet being downed over the Libyan city of Benghazi on Saturday, [video shows actual hit on fighter] and shelling of the rebel-held Misurata by Gaddafi's forces, despite the announcement of a ceasefire.
12.10pm: Al Jazeera TV has broadcast images of rebel tanks in the streets of Benghazi waving the flag of the revolution after Gaddafi forces pulled back.
The news channel earlier reported that the cease fire announced by Gaddafi's regime was never mentioned on national television and appears to have only been aimed at the international media and governments.
A closer up video shown on France 24 makes me thing it was a Mig 29, but that video was after the missile hit so bit hard to tell. However, on the Guardian blog they write that it was possibly a mirage.
"Rebels telling us they think the plane shot down was a rebel plane - fog of war. we only saw one. No-one able to ID it. Consensus was that it wasn't a mig - possibly a mirage."Very clearly Qadhdhafi is going for broke (and why not? If I were him I would).
Benghazi seems to be holding against a full-out mixed-forces assault.
Odd that he went for Benghazi, I would have thought Tobruk to cut supply lines (although perhaps as we speak) but perhaps the logistics were not there.
Further sinister developments, from the Guardian Libya live blog
12.04pm: The pro-Gaddafi state-run Jana news agency has reported that crowds of Libyans are converging on targets which France is expected to attack. This raises concern that Gaddafi could use civilians as human shields around military targetsHowever, very interesting re Paris emergency summit(Libya live blog)
11.50am: Morocco, Qatar, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates are the Arab nations attending the emergency summit on Libya in Paris, AFP reports.I wonder what the Moroccan position will be. There are still numbers of citizens in Morocco, but on the other hand I have it on good authority that the King and his close advisors absolutely loathe Qadhdhafi (not only for W. Sahara "ingerance" but also for personal insults and sleights, not all of which have been public - The Guide clearly has had a complex about 'the old families')
Otherwise, I close with this amusing denial:
• Loud explosions have been heard in the opposition stronghold, with those on the ground saying government forces have been shelling the rebels. Rebels said they had been forced to pull back as Libyan jets bombed the road to Benghazi airport and the city's outskirts.
• In response the Libyan regime has denied any involvement, saying its entire air force has been grounded and it is respecting its self-imposed ceasefire.
Qadhdhafi is of course not merely stupidly lying, he is playing a good game of sowing chaos and doubt, which are his best cards.
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March 18, 2011
Text of Security Council Resolution on Libya: License to Kill the Qadhdhafi Regime?
Louns ETA: [Moving this up as it deserves review and reflexion]
Marty McFly fled armed Libyans in Back to the Future but in this time period and real world a martial no-fly zone -- or something far larger, even an authorization to aerially and materially assist in a war to unseat Qadhdhafi -- has been declared by the UN Security Council (SC 1973). Text of resolution follows below some initial commentary.
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Sullivan bis: Delerium & Fantasy re Libya & impact "Arab 48"
ETA: The LibGov has declared a ceasefire (via the ForMin), but I rather suspect this is a delaying action and not real on the ground (reports seem to indicate that indeed combat continues). Probable intention is to have a pause (likely needed in the East to bring up logistics), use rebels ongoing pushback as excuse to resume.
Really should combine, but off to meeting, so Andrew Sullivan
That seems to me to be a minimal requirement for such a drastic and risky action. The Congress must have a debate and vote on this. It's hard to express how disappointed I am not just by the administration's decision but by the president's refusal even to explain a third war to the American people. And he's now off to Brazil ...? Is he kidding?
This from a fellow who full-throatedly backed the Iraq war. Insofar as I can tell the US has merely voted support for the UN resolution (and never mind how comical it would be to bring the Congress to debate in the closing hours of Benghazi over the theatre of the No Fly). Really, Sullivan is over compensating for his idiocy over the Iraq war, with deeper stupidity about the No Fly.
The most important part of the UN vote last night was no the actual No Fly (although France resuming its old war with Qadhdhafi has an interesting side to it), but the effect of stiffening the spines of the Rebellion. Morale effect. And worth an effort.
Unless of course Sullivan and the others can advance a scenario where Libya reconquered by Qadhdhafi, but awash in weapons 'liberated' from Government depots and filled with embittered rebels does not turn into a Chechnya or an Algeria c. 1993 (except next to Tunisia and Egypt, themselves struggling to establish stability) with the rebels turning to the hard-core Takfiri Jihad wing as their point of reference....
Continue reading "Sullivan bis: Delerium & Fantasy re Libya & impact "Arab 48""
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Oh the precious nonviolence of the Arab 48 ruined
I enjoy reading Andrew Sulivan even though he's an excitable fool, but this comment is really an idiotic piece of preciousness (The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan)
In endorsing the rebels, have we not forgotten the nonviolence that was the core mainspring of the Arab 1848 and legitimized much more divisive means of regime change?Yeah, mate, seems as if Qadhdhafi forgot as well. "Legitimized" - what the fuck does that even bloody mean in the context of Libya? Had the protests started out with an aim to civil war, this comment might have some twisted relevance (as per the Bahraini demos which have featured Death to the Khalifa from early on...), but in the context of Qadhdhafi...? I do recall it was he who opened fire first.
The other reasons to hesitation are more valid.
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March 15, 2011
Mourning Libya
Insofar as the Libyan rebellion is right and truly fucked, having lost Ajdabiya in a rout, (Qaddafi Forces Seize Another Rebel Stronghold - NYTimes.com) time for tears...
The grim news from Ajdabiya was met with anger, anguish and tears by rebel leaders in Benghazi. On Tuesday afternoon, many of them privately acknowledged that an attack on the seat of rebel power was inevitable, if not imminent, and they again pleaded for Western intervention.Rather than wailing for outside help, they had better start organizing something. No Fly is going to do fuck all for them, even were it launched tomorrow. In fact so far they're showing that it's not probably worth the effort. Time to mourn the Rebellion. I hope there is a part II. I for one am not going to work on any Libyan contract (although per The Guide Today, only Merkel's fellow Germans are welcome).
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Libyan rebellion on its back feet
It would appear that if they cannot hold (Libya Live Blog - March 15 | Al Jazeera Blogs) Ajdabiya, the Rebellion is in deep trouble, if not on its death bed, make No fly and other talk rather academic:
3:12pm
Libya and Middle East unrest - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
Al Jazeera has learned that Gadaffi forces have reached the western gate of Ajdabiya
• Gaddafi forces have retaken the town of Brega and are shelling Ajdarbia, 90 miles from Benghazi. Rebel forces plan to make a stand there, the last major obstacle to Gaddafi before Benghazi.This is a pity as if there is one person in MENA that there is consensus on getting rid of, including local consensus, it's the Guide, as the FT ( "Gulf provides wrong kind of support for Bahrain") in talking about Bahrain, slyly notes:
...
• Libyan government troops have captured Zwara, the last rebel-held city west of Tripoli to fall back under government control.
• G8 foreign ministers are expected to omit any mention of a no-fly zone in their draft communique in Paris. The West German foreign minister said the west should not get sucked into a war in north Africa,
It is an irony, of course, that some of the leaders who are facing the wrath of their own people should be clamouring for the demise of a fellow ruler – except that he happens to be Col Gaddafi, loathed by virtually all his peers and brutally crushing a rebellion. In fact, getting rid of the colonel is probably one of the very few things most Arab states agree on.Quite, indeed one of the few things most Arabs period agree on.
On intervention, my change of spirit is in many ways summed up in this New Yorker article, “Where is America?” hits on:
The rebels have lost ground because they have not learned how to hold it. At the front lines at Ras Lanuf and Brega, they didn’t dig trenches, and so when jets came to bomb them they panicked and ran. Last Friday, I was with them as they abandoned what had been their new fallback front line, in front of the refinery east of Ras Lanuf (having lost the town itself the day before) under withering barrages of rocket fire. That night, I slept in Brega; when I ventured back, the next day, to see if there was anything left of the front line, I found just fifteen or twenty battlewagons at a checkpoint in the desert fifty miles east, near El Aquela. A few more technical vehicles with guns showed up from Brega to reinforce the line; a few were beyond, “probing “ the desert, according to an officer I talked to—one of the very few soldiers I had spotted anywhere near the front lines in recent days.
Suddenly, the sky filled with the approaching roar of a diving jet fighter, which swooped in and, as we scrambled next to a car, dropped a bomb about a hundred feet from where we were. Once again, as we had seen so many times in the previous days, everyone fled—because there was no cover, and nowhere to hide. At Brega, there was a kind of reassembly of men, but they were few, and there were, again, no fortifications, no trenches, and precious few guns. The next morning, Brega, too, was abandoned amid similar scenes, as Qaddafi’s forces, coming onwards, heralded their intention to advance with long-range rocket fire and more aerial bombardment.
....
In truth, even if a no-fly zone is imposed now, it might not be enough to stop Qaddafi’s advance. Its real value, as far as I have been able to ascertain, would be the symbolic importance, the morale boost it would give the fighters, to allow them to feel that they are not entirely alone in the world. It might even buy them enough time to rally more volunteers to stand and fight, rather than retreat, in the face of Qaddafi’s advancing ground forces—or at least to dig some trenches. If Libya’s revolutionaries are truly abandoned, however, anything is possible. An ideological incoherence seethes in these young people—trying to be brave, terrified and nonetheless going forward, and being blown to pieces—which could be exploited if their revolutionary euphoria turns to bitter resentment.
Emphasis added.
I had thought No FLy rather pointless as the Qadhdhafi planes have been technically almost entirely useless per most reporting. However, I had also thought there was more of a spine of trained Army among the Rebels. The pure psychological impact of the airplanes is clearly more useful to Qadhdhafi than their actual effectiveness. That the Rebels are just a kind of "flash mob" rather than an actual force renders them fundamentally ineffective. In reading the reminder that the Rebel commander is the former Interior Minister, one has to wonder if he is not deliberately letting the mob get bloodied to create the basis for takeover - if not too late.
As to the last item, revolutionary euphoria, more than failure, failure without any real gesture of support from the West - ex-France - seems to me to carry the profound danger of ceding the terrain of opposition to Al Qaeda fil Maghreb. Without some signs of real support, the only credible actors may end up the Takfiri Jihad movement. That is in no one's interest. Better support and failure than no support and failure. The Germans are being incredibly myopic. (But then German policy under Merkel seems to be largely characterised by myopia).
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Good that Chavez, Ortega & Castro give moral support
Yes indeed, must be Yanqui imperialist dogs behind all this, depsite the absence of any such signs: Libya Live Blog - March 15 | Al Jazeera Blogs
The Associate Press reports that Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, Cuba's Fidel Castro and Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega have been foremost in opposing US and NATO military involvement.Latin American hard left, good to see they're as brain dead and bankrupt as always.
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March 14, 2011
The Full Q. Rebound, & Support
Although I have been a sceptic of No Fly, I have to say time is coming to abandon that. The Guide is increasingly getting more effective use out of his airforce it appears (perhaps the pilots beginning to think that he's going to last after all) and the Rebellion is in real danger now, as this note from the guardian.co.uk show, although the caveats as to real impact remain.
11.26am: The issue of a no-fly zone is all the more pressing given that Gaddafi's air force is continuing to raid rebel positions. According to rebel groups, war planes attacked weapons stores today near the eastern city of Ajdabiya.I've come to the conclusion that it is better to try and fail than not to try, as the impact on the Western image chez the Libyans - and the potential gains for the Jihadis - is large (negative and positive respectively).
France and the UK are seen as the main proponents of a no-fly zone within the G8 group of major industrialised nations, which also comprises the US, Russia, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada. Russia, one of the big players if a proposal is to be put before the UN security council, apparently remains to be convinced. The country's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said this morning that he wanted more information about how such a zone would work. Russia would "closely study" any proposal put before the security council, he added.
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March 12, 2011
Arab League backs Libya no fly
Fruits of Qadhdhafi gratuitously if amusingly insulting the other members over the years, I would say. I can't put it down to actual moral outrage: Arab League backs no-fly zone in Libya - CNN.com
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March 11, 2011
No Fly & the Full Qadhdhafi
ETA prefix:
This could be the opening needed for support to the Rebellion, let us hope that Arab League shows more spine than it has ever before in its existence (helped along by the fact that none of them have ever liked the Guide):Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
3.59pm: 3.57pm: The Arab League is apparently set to back a no-fly zone over Libya, according to Reuters, who quote the Hungarian foreign minister, Janos Martonyi."The most important thing is that the Arab League agrees with [it]," he said.
"The expectation is that they will support [the] no-fly zone under some conditions."
First, it rather appears that Qadhdhafi has launched a fullish military campaign now:
Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
2.59pm: More details and colour from Reuters:There is a real chance Qadhdhafi can entirely reverse his losses in the west, not clear to me regarding the East, fundamentally more hostile to him as it is. Nevertheless, as my earlier notes indicated, the Rebellion must rapidly get more organised and serious or they are in deep trouble. This may also make them more open to foreign support, but unless they are more organised, foreign support isn't going to do much (although there is probably a synergestic relationship between potential for foreign support and getting organised, as else a reverse of the abandoning of the regime is as likely to emerge as not).
The sound of explosions and small arms fire came from Ras Lanuf on Friday as government troops landed from the sea backed by tanks and air power fought to recapture the oil port town.
A large column of black smoke billowed from storage tanks at an oil installation, television pictures showed, after what Arab channels said was a series of government air strikes.
2.56pm: An update on the fighting in Ras Lanuf. A look at this map helps put things in context
(AP) The rebels appeared to have a tenacious hold around the oil facilities at Ras Lanuf, taking refuge among the towering storage containers of crude oil and gas. Government forces stopped directing their fire at those positions, apparently to avoid blowing up the facility's infrastructure, according to fighters.
Instead, the pro-Gaddafi troops, positioned in Ras Lanuf's residential about 10 miles (16 kilometers) east of the oil port across a barren desert no man's land, were raining rockets and shelling along the main coastal highway, targeting rebel vehicles trying to reinforce and bring supplies to the port, said Mohammed Gherani, a rebel fighter.
The bodies of at least three opposition fighters killed in the shelling were brought to rebel-held Brega, a larger oil port to the west, bringing the toll from two days of battles at Ras Lanouf to at least nine.
It's worth highlighting the disorganisation:Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
2.05pm: AP offers a fascinating profile of the rebels fighting for Ras Lanuf and hoping to work their way to Tripoli:Romantic gallantry, but leaderless 'flash-mob,' cell-phone organised cluelessness with AKs in the face of a real army is going to go down in bloody failure. It is not possible to help this mob unless they get themselves organised, and fast.
"The front-line force … is surprisingly small. Not counting supporters who bolster them in the towns along their path, it is estimated at 1,500 at most Libyans from all walks of life, from students and coffee-shop owners to businessmen who picked up whatever weapons they could and joined the fight. No one seems to know their full size, and they could be picking up new members all the time …
"The rebel force is a leaderless collection of volunteers, operating in an evolving collaboration with soldiers who deserted various units over the past month and are still be trying to organise themselves. It's not clear who, if anyone is giving orders …
"The volunteer militiamen largely have been acting and reacting as a pack to government assaults, launching initiatives wherever they can. They ride around in dozens of pick-up trucks, some with machine guns and anti-aircraft guns strapped to the back. Some rebels have weapons, while others seem hardly able to operate a gun …
"Many of the fighters come from Benghazi, the main city in the rebel-controlled eastern half of the country. They are united by hatred for Gaddafi and a burning desire to overthrow him and establish a state under the rule of law."
(Edited to add additional item from Fareed Zakaria's The Libyan Conundrum - TIME
Continue reading "No Fly & the Full Qadhdhafi"
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Libya, the French impact
First, as my Aqoul collegues know, I have long been more of a fan of Sarko than most people watching the Francophone world, and Libya uprising, this Guardian note re EU annoyance | guardian.co.uk doesn't change my mind:
11.50am: Nicolas Sarkozy appears to have upset many of his fellow European leaders with his decision to give a Libyan opposition group diplomatic recognition before the EU met today.Frankly the Dutch comment is stupid. Profoundly stupid. Actually Sarkos gambit is a far better solution than yet another week of mumbling on the part of the Brussocrats about pointless and useless sanctions against The Guide and patting themselves on the back about the Strong Language used to reprimand the Guide. As if the Clan Qadhdhafi gave a flying fuck. France merely had the balls to roll the dice. And it is a risky roll of the dice, but frankly at least drives clarity.
"I find it a crazy move by France," Dutch Premier Mark Rutte said as he arrived for the meeting in Brussels. "To jump ahead and say 'I will recognise a transitional government,' in the face of any diplomatic practice, is not the solution for Libya."
Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker argued "it is good for Europeans to decide their measures in the meeting, and not the day before."
And David Cameron said: "It's important that the countries of Europe show political will, show ambition and show unity in being clear that Colonel Gadhafi must go."
And we see Rebellion opinion turning re outside help as the population begins to realize having God on their side doesn''t help versus T-72s.
Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
12.12pm: More from Chris McGreal, who's at a huge demo in Benghazi, where "thousands upon thousands" of opposition supporters have turned out. The crowds are waving pre-Gaddafi Libyan flags — and, significantly, French tricolores.
Chris reports that rebel leaders are now calling not only for the creation of a no-fly zone, but also for air strikes to stop Gaddafi's attacks on cities such as Ras Lanuf. Political pressure, they say, is no longer enough.
Political pressure was never enough. I'd think it should have been obvious from the get go, given Qadhdhafi''s track record. Which is why I was calling Civil War as far back as the first week. The only thing that was going to stop Qadhdhafi from going the Full Qadhdhafi was if his entire security apparat collapsed. It came close, but he pulled it out.
Now, if they don''t start fielding some serious anti-tank material and training their people on using it well, they''re toast.
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March 10, 2011
Franco British demarche for intervention
This may actually lead somewhere, and given the signs that the Rebellion could be in for serious reversals, comes at a good moment, as the anti-intervention feelings in the Rebellion will likely be seriously cooled.
From guardian.co.uk
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March 03, 2011
On No fly & modest proposals
A good call for a second think on the easy thinking about No Fly Six considerations for discussing the imposition of a Libyan no-fly zone - By Tom Ricks | The Best Defense
6. No, the Iraqi no-fly zones are not a good precedent to cite. I actually went out and looked at the operation of the northern no-fly zone in October of 2000. I came away thinking that one reason that no American aircraft were shot down in the Iraqi no-fly zones was because Saddam Hussein really did not want to-that is, he did not want to provoke America. The anti-aircraft shots that were taken were wide on purpose. A better parallel might be Serbia, which (aided by a smart Hungarian national who now is a baker) managed to down an F-117 stealth fighter aircraft in March 1999 with an SA-3 anti-aircraft missile.
Very evidently, contra Sadaam, The Guide has nothing to lose in using everything in his AA arsenal against any aircraf interdicting his movements.
A rather better solution would be to buy Russian (or better Ukranian sourced) anti-aircraft man portable missiles, and clandestinely support the Benghazi based opposition. Done properly it has all the potential of plausible deniability, keeps things in Libyan hands to prevent any Rally Round the Flag effect for The Guide, and cheap man portable SAMs would rather quickly put a dent in the use of aircraft against the opposition.
Of course there is a problem of potential leakage to terrorists.
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March 02, 2011
Libya, Burning Libya encore
First, a useful note from BBC BBC News - Libya: Who is propping up Gaddafi?
Subtitled,
Col Muammar Gaddafi's regime is showing signs of fighting back.Showing signs... an understatement. But useful overview of his side actors.
Economist Clauswitz blog has very useful notes,
Continue reading "Libya, Burning Libya encore"
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Corvée noire: Guide's 'Mercenaries'
This is not surprising behaviour from The Guide
BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa
1627: The BBC's Hausa service has spoken to Niger nationals fleeing Libya. They said there are widespread reports of people from sub-saharan Africa being arrested.BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa
1632: Disturbingly, the Niger nationals said those people arrested are being made to choose between joining Col Gaddafi's army or being killed.BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa
1537: People from Niger who have fled Libya tell BBC Hausa that there have been widespread arrests of sub-Saharan Africans. They say they are being forced to either join Col Gaddafi's forces or be killed.
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Libya, cautionary notes re Qaddafi 'irrationality'
This note from NY Times is quite good (and sums up similar evals I have been seeing): Even a Weakened Qaddafi May Be Hard to Dislodge - NYTimes.com
Although it is fun to call The Guide a mad man and mock his sanity, it's important not to miss the signs that for all his flamboyance and eccentricity, he is neither stupid nor per se delusional (i.e. à la Hitler moving imaginary units as reported re his behaviour behind closed doors). Talking up things grandiosely in public should not be confused with private, behind doors behaviour:
But Colonel Qaddafi retains significant strength, Mr. Joshi said. He is thought to still control the air force, though some elements have defected. And while there have been clashes in Tripoli, with sniper and small-arms fire in areas of the capital, “it is not a war zone and not a city in rebellion,” he said.Emphasis added.
While the colonel is thought to be delusional, he and his commanders have proved capable so far of using their forces with some care, Mr. Joshi said. “There have been no large massacres, air power is being used in a calculated way and he is launching probing attacks” while “making constant efforts in the suburbs of Tripoli to check small gestures of dissent.”
The struggle in Libya “could go on a long time,” Mr. Joshi said. “Tripoli is not a bunker. And this is not the decision-making of a man totally out of touch with reality.”
I have certainly already given my estimation to the people who pay me very good money for such that planning should be for months of fighting, i.e. no quick reprise of economic (business) activity.
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February 28, 2011
Libyan Berbers Revolt
Not in any way surprising, given Qadhdhafi's repression of Berbers: Libya's Berbers join the revolution in fight to reclaim ancient identity | World news | The Guardian
Libya's Berbers join the revolution in fight to reclaim ancient identityQadhdhafi's senseless repression of Berbers always has puzzled me, however.
Mountain tribes in the west, also called Amazigh, unite with opposition after decades of Gaddafi repressing their identity
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February 27, 2011
Guide Libyan Mercenaries Profile
A very useful and insightful article from The Telegraph, it confirms Qadhdhafi did in fact bring in mercenaries from Chad, although given the story told by a young one, it is reasonable to presume there were bait & switch going on:
African mercenaries in Libya nervously await their fate - Telegraph
African mercenaries in Libya nervously await their fateNevertheless, as the article notes there are elements still out there, the return to stability after The Guide is killed - that seems certain - is a far from certain thing.
Mercenaries captured in Libya are facing an uncertain future, writes Nick Meo in Al-Bayda.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:45 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 26, 2011
Africans & Libya, Mercenaries
An interesting comment to highlight
Live Blog - Libya Feb 26 | Al Jazeera Blogs
7:05pm
AJE correspondent reports that anti-government protesters have attacked black Africans in Libya, taking them for mercenaries.
Seidou Boubaker Jallou and his friend, both from Mali, fled for their lives by night to the Tunisian border. They said the roads out of the West are still in the hands of those loyal to Gaddafi. Jallou says:
The situation is very dangerous - every day there are more than a hundred who die - every day - every day there are shootings - the most dangerous situation is for foreigners like us - and also us black people - Because Gaddafi brought soldiers from Chad from Niger - they are black and they are killing Arabs.
Certainly if you're a Chadian exile from the Libyan-Chad wars days, and you're fighting for The Guide, you probably are going to stick it, since otherwise you're toast (and not welcome at home either).
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 25, 2011
More Libya, burning Libya
Further items on Libya:
Live Blog - Libya Feb 25 | Al Jazeera Blogs
6: 25pm Serbia denied media reports on Friday that its pilots or ground crews had been involved in Libyan air force bombing missions against protesters, adding that it was suspending all its arms exports to the country. The Serbian Defence Ministry were responding to reports in Arab and Maltese media that Serb mercenary pilots took part in bombing runs against protesters in the Libyancities of Tripoli and Benghazi.Kha, well the Serbs have a well-deserved reputation in this area, I doubt the Serb defence ministry would even know...
Further, re The Guide
Libya in turmoil - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
5.22pm: The BBC's John Simpson has interviewed the former Libyan interior minister Abdul Fattah Younis al-Abidi, who resigned on Tuesday and went over to the opposition. In an extract of the interview, which has just been broadcast, he called on Gaddafi to resign. Simpson added that the former minister told him that Gaddafi was "probably insane" and thought that he would last more than a few days. Simpson reporter the former minister as predicting Gaddafi would not commit suicide, but would instead go down fighting, which would be a "form of suicide".I am convinced that there is still significant time in front of us for Qadhdhafi, unless someone inside assassinates him, to fight. Tripoli is likely to be a last stand (if he is not preparing a Desert War, which perhaps he could pull off as a guerilla).
....
5.18pm: In a sign of the worsening situation in Tripoli the US is considering closing its embassy in the capital amid violence between Gaddifi supporters and anti-government protesters, a US official has told Reuters.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the move was being considered but no decision had been made.
Continue reading "More Libya, burning Libya"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:40 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
To lighten the moment: Qadhdhafi Joke (Ar w Trans)
A joke making the rounds by email:
يحكى أن القذافي زار مدارس المغرب ذات مرة في عهد الحسن الثاني ووجد المعلمين يلاحظون في دفاتر تلامذتهم ب"حسن" و"مستحسن" و"حسن جدا" فأمر معلميه لما عاد إلى ليبيا أن يكتبوا للتلاميذ "مستقذف" "قذافي" و"قذافي جدا
English:
It's said that Qadhdhafi visited a Moroccan school in the time of [King] Hassan II and found "Very Good" [Ar: Hassan Jidun], "Commendable" [Mustehassen] and "Good"[Hassan] [all act. Mor. school grades] that teachers noted in the workbooks of the students. So when he returned to Libya, he ordered his teachers to use the grades "Very Qadhafi" [Q. jidun], "Established / Mustaqadhif" and "Qadhafi"(joke resides in Hassan II's name].
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:16 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
February 24, 2011
Chadian Mercenaries Report (Figaro, Fr)
Figaro cites a Chadian claim that Chad gov sent mercenaries to support The Guide. It also indicates that mercenaries were also sourced from Dar Fur, from the rebel Zaghawa.
Le Figaro - International : La garde tchadienne au secours du colonel Kadhafi
COMMENT HERE
N'Djamena aurait envoyé des troupes pour soutenir le «guide» libyen, qui recruterait également des groupes armés soudanais.
Le Tchad aurait envoyé des soldats au secours du colonel Kadhafi. C'est ce qu'affirme le site Tchadactuel, habituellement bien renseigné grâce à des sources proches du palais présidentiel de N'Djamena. Selon ce site, le président Idriss Déby lui-même aurait ordonné ce déploiement. Des habitants de Benghazi confirment l'arrivée de ces troupes.
D'après d'autres sources, des Tchadiens vivant sur place seraient également recrutés par les autorités de leur pays. Le chiffre de plus de mille militaires a été avancé, sans pouvoir être vérifié.Le Soudan, ajoute Tchadactuel, aurait également été sollicité mais aurait refusé. Le Tchad faciliterait en revanche le passage des Soudanais désireux d'aller se battre en Libye. Le JEM (Mouvement pour la justice et l'égalité), le plus armé des groupes rebelles du Darfour, fournirait aussi des hommes. La longue frontière entre le Tchad et la province rebelle de l'ouest du Soudan facilite les choses, tout comme la présence des deux côtés de cette frontière de membres de l'ethnie Zaghawa, celle du président tchadien.
Défection importante dans les forces spéciales
Comme toujours en Libye, l'argent du pétrole pourrait alimenter cette aide militaire. Avec le risque de déclencher des représailles contre les travailleurs tchadiens installés en Libye, et déjà mal vus par la population. Les militaires venus du Tchad pourraient être arrivés en Libye par le sud, franchissant une région montagneuse habitée de part et d'autre par l'ethnie Toubou, qui a dans les années 1990 mené une véritable guerre contre le gouvernement tchadien. Leur réaction est une inconnue.
Emphasis added.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:57 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Flight of the Qadhdhafis
Not quite flight of the aviator.
Live Blog - Libya Feb 24 | Al Jazeera Blogs
10:52am Lebanese aythorites confirm they refused to allow a Libyan plane to land in Beirut yesterday - because its pilot would not identify its passengers. Online reports suggest the passengers included the wife of one of Gaddafi's sons.
combined with the Malta reports of turning away one or more unscheduled Libyan flights, I think we can see his sons probably don't share his Crazy Old Bedouin inclination to fight to the death. It probably would be preferable for Lebanon and Malta, etc. to allow them in, as that might result in a break and flight of Qadhdhafi supporters. Turning them around only reinforces the fight to the last man mentality.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:21 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
February 23, 2011
SubSah Afr Expats in Libya A useful point of reflexion
An item I believe is being potentially neglected in thinking about Gaddafi's reservoir of enforcers / sowers of civil war is the SSAf population in Libya, and the Black Libyans.
BBC News - Libya: Who is propping up Gaddafi?
Col Gaddafi has long fostered close relations with African countries, having turned his back on the Arab world some time ago, and there are an estimated 500,000 African expatriates in Libya out of a total population of six million.To put this in context, we need to think about the history of anti-Black progroms in Libya
The number of those serving as pro-Gaddafi mercenaries is thought to be quite small but their loyalty to his regime is said to be unquestioned and there are reports of extra flights being laid on to bring in more in recent days.
Continue reading "SubSah Afr Expats in Libya A useful point of reflexion"
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Civil War bis
Underscoring that this is unlikely to end quickly or nicely, this report
Libya on the brink as Gaddafi promises showdown - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
1.07pm: My colleague Ghaith Abdul-Ahad has just been on the phone from the Tunisia-Libya border. He says there are hundreds of people coming through, mainly Tunisians. Some have been harassed and some beaten up by Libyans who blame them for stirring up trouble. They are scared.The item re Tunisians strongly suggests that Qadhdhafi's line about foreign agitators, Tunisians, Moroccans, Egyptians, etc. being behind violence has a real audience. I believe the thesis of a civil war is very credible. The East is solidly Anti, but the West...
At least one of the towns on the roads between Tripoli and the border is in the hands of anti-Gaddafi rebels. Checkpoints are manned by the Libyan army and pro-Gaddafi rebels.
On the Libyan side the border is manned by plain-clothes police who are "very, very, very loyal to Gaddafi, and very aggressive," Ghaith says.
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The Libyan Mirage Defection: Maltese First account
Very interesting note from Malta's English newspaper
INDEPENDENT online
.... Meanwhile, AFM sources have told this newspaper that the jets, ... broke out of formation when their squadron was ordered to attack Libyan civilians. ..
While it is not yet known whether the two Colonels were in command of the mission and whether they encouraged their fellow pilots to make for Malta, it has been established that the two aircraft peeled off and dove for the deck. They flew below 500 feet to avoid detection while in Libyan airspace – presumably both out of fear of surface-to-air missiles being launched from Libya and also to lose the rest of the squadron. It is understood that the flight, which takes about 40-45 minutes on a commercial jet liner, took only six to nine minutes in the Mirages, as afterburners were engaged. In pilot talk, as one source put it, they “bunted, dove for the deck, hit the afterburners and screamed towards Malta”.
There are two accounts of how the aircraft made contact. Some sources say they requested emergency landing clearance as they were out of fuel (Malta is obliged to acquisce), while others said that the planes landed in formation and only announced their arrival when they set down on the tarmac on the commercial runway.
The newspaper also notes that the flight time is scary for Malta as a reminder of how close they are to Libya should more serious trouble breaks out.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Notes of Caution re Qadhdhafi support (& civil war)
A useful note from Leila Fadel in the Washington post regarding the mixed bag in Libya.
In Libya, increasingly divergent views of Gaddafi
In Libya, increasingly divergent views of Gaddafi
By Leila Fadel
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; A01
TOBRUK, LIBYA - On Libya's northeastern border, there are no visa procedures and no passport-control officers. There's just a gaggle of armed young men - defected soldiers and police officers - waving people through.
"Welcome to the new Libya," reads a graffiti tag at the crossing.
The young men eagerly displayed cellphone videos that they said depicted government mercenaries shooting down women, children and men. They told of rapes, looting and killings over the past week, as demonstrators have risen up in open revolt and the government of Moammar Gaddafi has cracked down hard.
"Our leader is a tyrant, and he'll kill us all in cold blood," said Hassan el-Modeer, a British-educated engineer. "The world needs to intervene as soon as possible."
Opposition supporters described this area to visitors as the "liberated eastern region of Libya," and anti-government sentiment runs high here.
But it is also clear that deep divisions remain. Even in this coastal town, more than 900 miles from Libya's capital and in an area that has slipped well beyond the government's control, some still support Gaddafi, who has ruled this country for 41 years
Further in the article is noted signs of ongoing support - no reason to believe not genuine - of the Guide. It is easy to get caught up in the moving video and emails, etc., from Libya and underestimate the potential of 'counter-revolutionary' blowback from people with various reasons to support The Guide.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:19 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
The incoherence of Arab Left commentary: West Damned if it does, damned if it doesn't
Typical of Angry Arab, this comment:
The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب
Obama and Hillary still don't want Qadhdhafi to surrender power: they fear the impact on oil field, just as they feared the impact in Egypt on the lousy peace treaty.
Where he gets this from escapes, as the Americans are clearly not friends of The Guide by any rational stretch of the imagination. Evidently, if the American government is not making sloppy posturing statements like himself, that means they're for something. It escapes, apparently, that it is not the role of diplomacy to make angry, loose commentary (in public). Not that American condemnations, or anyone else's is going to have any effect on The Guide at all. It would be pure self-indulgence. Which is fine for bloggers, but incompetent idiocy for governments.
Of course this same line of commentary, when the Americans do say something, then wrings its hands about Western interference in Arab affaires. In fact the Obama administration is doing the Arabs a favour by staying out of the way, and giving the protesters the space not to be foreign stooges, but themselves.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:39 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Jamahiri-ism Blowback:
An interesting hypothesis re The Guide's popular committees habit actually having some blowback for him in providing institutions for popular revolt - the real kind.
Blog - The Arabist
Reports from liberated east Libyan cities suggest an impressive level of organization on the part of the populace, with most basic urban functions up and running. One wonders if Qaddafi's ideosyncratic jamahiriyan ideology, roping people into participating in rubber-stamp "Basic People's Congresses" to create a facade of direct democracy, has in fact formed the provided the institutional template for a countrywide insurrection against him.Intriguing propo, not sure if it will stand up, but interesting.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:54 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 22, 2011
Foreign Intervention, Maybe, Maybe Not: Reservations on Marc Lynch's Call For Libya Help
Marc Lynch, aka Abu Aardvark, calls for sorta kinda foreign NATOidal interventionish actiony-like things in Libya, which he compares to Rwanda and others. I sorta kinda both agree and disagree, what with being near ideologically non-interventiony, but kind of ambivalently sympathetic and ok with loopholes to sort of allow it, but maybe not really. Hope that's muddy enough for you.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:10 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
February 21, 2011
Civil War.
This seems to be it. Full out military repression including full use of air force.
Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
5.19pm: Reuters has filed a story corroborating our report on the Libyan armed forces attacking parts of Tripoli (see 5.07pm). The news agency reported that military aircraft attacked crowds of anti-government protesters in the Libyan capital Tripoli on Monday, according to al-Jazeera:
A Libyan man, Soula al-Balaazi, who said he was an opposition activist, told the network by telephone that Libyan air force war planes had bombed "some locations in Tripoli".
He said he was talking from a suburb of Tripoli.
No independent verification of the report was immediately available.
An analyst for London-based consultancy Control Risks said the use of military aircraft on his own people indicated the end was approaching for Muammar Gaddafi.
"These really seem to be last, desperate acts. If you're bombing your own capital, it's really hard to see how you can survive," said Julien Barnes-Dacey, Control Risks' Middle East analyst.
"But I think Gaddafi is going to put up a fight. I think the rumours of him fleeing to Venezuela are going to prove wide of the mark. In Libya more than any other country in the region, there is the prospect of serious violence and outright conflict."
I agree re the idea of flying to Venezuela.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:43 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Libya, the descent
The information out of Libya is chaotic, unreliable and disturbing. What can only be concluded is that the Guide's regime is hanging on by the slimmest threads, but that the Qadhdhafi clan know that, and they know that if they go, they personally will likely die unpleasantly. So their solution: unleash hell.
BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa
1556: Two Libyan fighter jets have landed unexpectedly in Malta, witnesses say. The Mirage jets were seen landing at Malta's international airport on Monday afternoon. The Maltese foreign ministry said it was trying to establish why the planes had landed.
Dozens reported killed in Tripoli unrest | Top News | Reuters
In signs of disagreement inside Libya's ruling elite, the justice minister resigned in protest at the "excessive use of violence" against protesters.
Libya's ambassador to India told the BBC he was resigning in protest at the violent crackdown
It said security forces were looting banks and other government institutions in Tripoli, and protesters had broken into several police stations and wrecked them.
A Reuters reporter in Tripoli said residents were stocking up on essential goods, apparently in anticipation of new clashes after nightfall. There were long queues at food shops and long lines of cars at fuel stations.
Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam Gaddafi appeared on national television in an attempt both to threaten and to calm people, saying the army would enforce security at any price to put down one of the bloodiest revolts to convulse the Arab world.
"We will keep fighting until the last man standing, even to the last woman standing," he said on Sunday.
In the eastern city of Benghazi, protesters appeared to be largely in control after forcing troops and police to retreat to a compound. Government buildings were set ablaze and ransacked.
"Youths with weapons are in charge of the city. There are no security forces anywhere," University of Benghazi professor Hanaa Elgallal told Al Jazeera International television.
Salahuddin Abdullah, a self-described protest organiser, said: "In Benghazi there is celebration and euphoria ... The city is no longer under military control. It is completely under demonstrators' control."
There were reports that soldiers who refused to fire on civilians were executed by commanding officers in Benghazi.
Après moi, le deluge.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:22 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 20, 2011
Libya: Dancing by The Grave (but whose end game?)
Only 48 hours ago if someone had asked me could the Guide fall I would have said, "not bloody likely." Now I am not sure at all.
Live Blog - Libya | Al Jazeera Blogs
12:11 am: Libya's ambassador to China, Hussein Sadiq al Musrati, has just resigned on air with Al Jazeera Arabic. He called on the army to intervene, and has called all diplomatic staff to resign.
He made claims about a gunfight between Gaddafi's sons and also claimed that Gaddafi may have left Libya. Al Jazeera has no confirmation of these claims.
11:25 pm Online reports claim remaining pro-Gaddafi militia in Benghazi, around the Elfedeel Bu Omar compound, "are being butchered by angry mobs". It is impossible to verify the claims, though Al Jazeera has spoken with several people in the city who say protesters control the city, as security forces flee to the airport.
However, I believe that Qadhdhafi and the people close to his system are going to have every reason in the world to fight savagely for their position as I don't think a negotiated solution or a light resolution is possible given they went the Full Qadhdhafi.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Libya, The Revolt of the East & The Guide takes the Chinese option
The Libyan situation rather smells like civil war, and that between regions.
Middle East protests - LIVE | News | guardian.co.uk
10.30am Libya:12.01pm Libya:
This news report from Al-Jazeera shows chaotic scenes in Libya's north-eastern city of Benghazi. Anti-government protesters appear to have set fire to a security building and there are pictures of some making off with weapons - including an artillery round
Associated Press is reporting that the death toll is Benghazi may be much higher than the estimate from Human Rights Watch (which they had called "conservative").A doctor in the Libyan city of Benghazi says his hospital has seen the bodies of at least 200 protesters killed by Moammar Gadhafi's forces over the last few days. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he fears reprisal.
Witnesses told AP that a mixture of special commandos, foreign mercenaries and Gadhafi loyalists went after demonstrators on Saturday with knives, assault rifles and heavy-caliber weapons.
Continue reading "Libya, The Revolt of the East & The Guide takes the Chinese option"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:42 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 18, 2011
Libya: Official admits Bayda withdrawal
I find this significant:
Libyan protesters assert control - Telegraph
Libyan officials said that the security forces had been withdrawn from al-Bayda city centre to avoid further loss of life, but were now laying siege to the town as an uprising turned into outright conflict.Emphasis added.
Demonstrators in contact through social media with Libyan exiles claimed they also controlled parts of Libya's second city, Benghazi, and, in one unconfirmed report, had managed to prevent government planes bringing reinforcements landing at the airport.
If they are admitting this, I rather suspect the situation is worse than admitted.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Libya, yes indeed, the Whole Qadhdhafi
Some blood curdling news out of Libya
Violence in Bahrain and Libya: live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
9.13pm GMT - Libya:
Protesters are "committing suicide" according to the chilling statement from the Revolutionary Committees – an integral part of Gaddafi's regime – published on the Azzahf al-Akhdar website:
The response of the people and the Revolutionary Forces to any adventure by these small groups will be sharp and violent.
The power of the people, the Jamahiriya, the Revolution and the leader are all red lines, and anyone who tries to cross or approach them will be committing suicide and playing with fire.
9pm GMT - Libya:
The Guardian's Ian Black and Owen Bowcott report on the day's chaos in Libya:
Diplomats reported the use of heavy weapons in Benghazi, Libya's second city, and "a rapidly deteriorating situation" in the latest Arab country to be hit by serious unrest.
Amid a near-total official news blackout, fragmentary information and a ban on journalists entering Libya, there was a blizzard of rumours and claims about killings by mercenaries and defections by members of the security forces.
In one highly significant development, prisoners were reported to have escaped en masse from al-Jadida jail in the capital, Tripoli, which has so far been calm.
Yes, I think my BD is right out.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:59 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 17, 2011
The Guide: tear gas? Real permo revolutions use Helo Gunships
This, if confirmed, is going to put a real crimp in the Guide's path to respectability.
Libya protests: Colonel Muammar Gaddafi turns helicopter gunships on own people - Telegraph
Libya protests: Colonel Muammar Gaddafi turns helicopter gunships on own people
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's regime turned helicopter gunships and snipers on protesters killing up to 19 people yesterday as rare anti-government demonstrations were last night reported to have reached Tripoli, the capital.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:58 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Libya: The Guide & The Expected Return (Iron Fist)
There is not much surprise in this report:FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Libya crushes ‘day of anger’ efforts
Libya crushes ‘day of anger’ efforts Libyan security forces arrested activists and clashed with protesters on Thursday as Muammar Gaddafi’s regime cracked down on efforts to organise a “day of anger” on the back of uprisings that forced the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents from office.Activists and human rights officials said protesters and security forces clashed in Benghazi, the oil-rich nation’s second city, and Al-Bayda, the scene of violence the previous night.
Tripoli, the capital of the oil-rich nation, appeared calm as several hundred supporters of Mr Gaddafi, who has ruled Libya since 1969, held a demonstration in the centre of the city.
“There were clearly attempts to demonstrate in Benghazi and al-Bayda since this morning and there have been arrests since last night,” said Heba Morayef, North Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch. “What we have seen in the last couple of days is a crackdown on peaceful protestors though arrests, beatings, tear gas, and in Al-Bayda, live fire.”
Doubtless The Guide can suppress opposition through flagrant violence, although probably damaging his long-run transition stability (Saif?) and possibly seeing his new western friends (mmmm I resemble that remark) scared off.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
