Egypt Mamlouk Coup Archives

February 19, 2012

Problematic but re Egypt and over reaction

Judith Miller is a gullible git, but this arty in her new ghetto (newsmax, well deserved) Egypt on the Brink: An Exclusive Look at the Hunted Men Who Brought Growth and Reform does touch on some legit issues (between channeling indirect Mubarek regim apologia) re the liberal reformers. Perhaps not what she meant but it reflects on who liberal (economic) reform was contaminated by cronyism and thus deeply compromised. She does not grapple with that honestly, sadly.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 08, 2012

Egypt-US relations further downhill: military delegation cancels Washington visit.

As this has interesting regional implications, some thoughts on the FT arty Egypt-US meetings cancelled amid trial row and on the recent Gallup polling on Egypt and US assistance

From FT
 

An Egyptian army delegation visiting Washington abruptly cancelled meetings with senior American lawmakers on Monday as US government officials warned the country’s $1.5bn aid package was in jeopardy.

Senators Carl Levin and John McCain, the Democratic chairman and ranking Republican on the US Senate armed services committee, were among a number of congressional leaders scheduled to meet the Egyptian military representatives in the coming week.
 
But the delegation was recalled home after 19 US citizens, including Sam LaHood, the son of the US transportation secretary, were referred by the Egyptian authorities for criminal trial on charges of operating civil society groups without permission and receiving unauthorised foreign funding.

I'm actually fairly surprised that Egypt has decided to play hard ball on this.  They seem to truly feel that USA won't dare suspend aide, however, I don't know the US administration will be able to hold back the political backlash:
 

Cairo’s decision to try US citizens has put in doubt $1.5bn of US aid after a warning from Hillary Clinton, secretary of state, at the weekend. “We will have to closely review these matters as it comes [to the] time for us to certify whether or not any of these funds from our government can be made available under these circumstances,” she said.

The Obama administration repeated its warning on Monday. “We have underscored how serious a problem these actions are. We have said clearly that these actions could have consequences for our relationship, including regarding our assistance programs,” said Jay Carney, White House spokesman.

It's worth noting the amounts, Econ aide at USD 250 mln is enormous. Serious American allies don't receive such levels. A questionable one....

Under the budget approved by Congress for this year, Egypt is to receive $1.3bn in military aid and $250m in economic aid. However, allocation of the military aid requires the secretary of state to certify that Egypt is supporting the transition to a civilian government, including holding fair elections and ensuring freedom of speech.

And for the political climate in USA, this looks quite problematic to support:

Opposition to aid for Egypt continues to grow. On Friday, Patrick Leahy, the Democratic senator who chairs the subcommittee on foreign aid, said: “We want to send a clear message to the Egyptian military that the days of blank cheques are over.”

More than 40 members of Congress signed a letter sent to both the Obama administration and the Egyptian military council warning that it would be difficult to maintain aid in “the absence of a quick and satisfactory resolution to this issue”.

On this last observation below, (which I suppose suggests that just before aide is cut the trials will be suspended (but not dismissed) or some similar bit of theatre, the Gallup polling rather suggest that they are playing to a willing audience. Of course, it does raise substantial questions about the US-Egyptian relationship, given a political system that has positively nurtured paranoia re outsiders, including supposed allies.
 

Rabab al-Mahdi, an Egyptian political analyst, said the ruling generals appeared to be involved in a game of brinkmanship with the US but that it was unlikely they would allow the aid to be cut. She said that for the moment they seemed to be playing to nationalist sentiments in a country deeply suspicious of US intentions in the region. ...“I think what we are seeing is part of a populist campaign on the part of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in which they take extreme positions against the US and foreign powers. It feeds into the propaganda [they have been spreading] about foreign plots to destroy Egypt.”

The IHT / NYT arty on this subject  In Egypt, a History of Distrust of U.S.-Aided Groups - NYTimes.com

A useful reminder that the process was launched under the deposed President, again highlighting the very problematic fundamentals of that regime, happy to accept a nearly USD 2 bln bribe, but at the same time played a double game.

Two groups were targets of an Egyptian investigation into their role in supporting opposition to President Hosni Mubarak before he fell from power last February. “Data was collected about the activities of the American Embassy through the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute,” Mr. Mubarak’s former intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, said in a deposition.

...

That being said, I do agree with these observations:

But Paul J. Sullivan, a Middle East expert at Georgetown University who has long studied the Egyptian military, cautioned against interpreting the criminal charges as a result merely of high-level machinations. He said Egyptians of all affiliations are wary of undue influence from the United States, which they view as having propped up the Mubarak regime for many years.

“I understand the purpose of the N.D.I. and I.R.I.,” Dr. Sullivan said of the Democratic and Republican institutes. “But this is a newly freed state and a very brittle and emotional environment. It’s not the best environment for them to work. How would we react if a foreign country came here to teach us how to conduct elections?”

Many Egyptians appear to share the military-led government’s suspicions of American motives. “Eighty percent of the people think this is America’s work,” said Sherif Mohamed, 33, surveying metal fragments, garbage fires and dusty tear gas residue left on his block from five days of battles between protesters and security forces in Cairo.

“America does not like Islam,” he said, echoing a common sentiment here.

In recent days, several members of the newly elected Egyptian Parliament have said they look forward to the results of the investigation, asserting that it was wrong for the United States to violate Egyptian laws barring foreign financing of nonprofits.

Emphasis added. Given USA mainstreet popular paranioa about all things foreign (and the lunatic conspiracy theories that seem to have wide credit in the populist right like NAFTA highway, etc), one can hardly disagree.

However, turning to the Gallup note re Most Egyptians Oppose U.S. Economic Aid beyond the headline that ~70% of Egyptians oppose US assistance to Egypt, economic or political, the non-headline result that there is openness to international assistance via WB or IMF rather suggests a specific problematic relationship that the US would be better served from stepping back from:

LOS ANGELES -- About 7 in 10 Egyptians surveyed by Gallup in December 2011 oppose U.S. economic aid to Egypt, and a similar percentage opposes the U.S. sending direct aid to civil society groups. This rebuke of U.S. financial support may be a challenge for Egypt's newly elected parliament and its future president as the government attempts to bolster the nation's financial stability.
....

Egyptians are much more willing to receive aid from international institutions, with 50% favoring this type of help. Egypt's military and political leaders initally rejected an offer of support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but later changed their minds. Last month, Masood Ahmed, Director for the Middle East and Central Asia Department for the IMF, was in Egypt to discuss a potential $3.2 billion IMF loan to Egypt. Egyptian leaders' ability to attract foreign aid and investment will be important to collecting the capital needed to move the nation's economy forward.
...

Egytians are nearly as likely to favor aid from Arab governments as they are to oppose help from the U.S. Almost 7 in 10 favor aid from Arab governments.This may in part reflect high-profile announcements by several of the country's Arab neighbors about their involvement in projects to help rebuild Egypt's economy.

...

However, some Egyptian politicians have begun to voice concerns about collecting on their neighbors' promises. Fayza Abouelnaga, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation in Egypt, recently noted that her country had received only $500 million of the $3.7 billion promised by Saudi Arabia and $500 million of the $1.5 billion pledged by Qatar. Further, she said the United Arab Emirates has paid none of its promised $3 billion. Abouelnaga estimated in December that Egypt's foreign debt reached $34.4 billion, representing 15% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

Well, Gulf state promises should always be subject to an enormous discount rate. Like 50% plus. Even on their private investment front, they have an El Dorado image, but actual investments in real terms lags badly.
 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:00 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 07, 2012

Most Eguptians oppose US Econ Aid

Such is the news, perhaps non American aide is less dimly viewed.Most Egyptians Oppose U.S. Economic Aid

About 7 in 10 Egyptians surveyed by Gallup in December 2011 oppose U.S. economic aid to Egypt, and a similar percentage opposes the U.S. sending direct aid to civil society groups. This rebuke of U.S. financial support may be a challenge for Egypt's newly elected parliament and its future president as the government attempts to bolster the nation's financial stability.

Given the history USA has in Egypt, this is not a surprise. 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 06, 2012

End American (and other) Aid to Egypt

Noted this via the Arabist, frankly Steve Cook is spot on: From the Potomac to the Euphrates » Egypt and the United States: It’s Not You, It’s Me

I say we oblige Aboul Naga and wind down the aid program—including military assistance—as soon as practical. It’s hard to run against the “foreign hand” if there is no foreign hand. In addition to undermining Aboul Naga’s claims (and hopefully weakening her) bringing an end to the aid program and shutting down the USAID mission has multiple political benfits. First, Washington will no longer be in the unseemly position of providing taxpayer largesse—however small in the grand scheme of things—to a government that resents the United States and clearly does not share its values. Second, it will provide an opportunity for a much-needed change in military-to-military relations in which the United States merely pays for the services it needs like expedited transit through the Suez Canal. Third, it is consistent with this moment of empowerment and dignity for Egyptians many of whom do not want U.S. assistance either because they believe it actually stands in the way of a democratic transition or accept Aboul Naga’s argument along with those who couldn’t care less about U.S. assistance because it doesn’t touch their lives. Finally, it will free up funds for the United States to help others who actually might want Washington’s help, perhaps the Tunisians, Moroccans, or some sub-Saharan African countries would be grateful for development assistance.

This goes for others aide as well (UK, Germany).

Assistance spent on Tunisia, Morocco, the Sahel, would make rather more sense. Egypt, well, would do well to go through a "cure."
 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:13 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Econ model for democracy survival

While the author's scepticism re the utility of the modelling is well advised, the two main countries chances as modelled sound right: Economic Growth and the Survival of New Democracies « Dart-Throwing Chimp

I’ll wrap this post up by going back to where we started, namely, the Middle East after the “Arab awakening.” Even though GDP growth doesn’t contribute much to it, the model’s overall performance isn’t bad. After looking at those ROC curves, I wondered what the model would say about the prospects for the survival of new democracies in three Arab countries on the cusp of new tries at democracy: Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Of the three, only Tunisia would already qualify as democratic by my definition, but Egypt and Libya are both in the midst of transitions from authoritarian rule that could put them over the threshold soon. So I took the IMF’s latest projections of their growth rates and plugged them into the model, along with recent data on their levels of economic development and my best guess as to whether or not they would qualify as acutely polarized according to the data set I used for that indicator. Here’s what came back as estimates of the probability that each of those new democracies would make it to their sixth birthday, assuming that, of the three, only Tunisia would not qualify as acutely polarized:

Tunisia: 82%
Egypt: 48%

Egypt is quite screwed.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 04, 2012

Released tourist, but

And indeed it did turn out as predicted. Nevertheless not going to help Egypt come back in tourism. Kidnapped US tourists released - FT.com

Kidnapped US tourists released

By Heba Saleh in Cairo

Two American tourists were released hours after they and their Egyptian guide were kidnapped in the tourist hub of south Sinai, one of the few places still receiving visitors despite the political turmoil raging elsewhere in the country.

Bedouin sources quoted by Reuters news agency said the kidnappers agreed to free the tourists in exchange for four fellow tribesmen held by police.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:23 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 03, 2012

Egyptian Tourism, not getting better PR

Egypt just is not getting any breaks - nor creating any. Besides the football riots, we have kidnappings and violence in the Sinia and in Sharm El Sheikh and St. Catherine's area.

Gunmen Kidnap 2 Americans, Egyptian In Sinai Peninsula | Fox News
Now this is probably just your old-school Yemani type kidnapping, but along with other events, I can not see Egypt recovering its badly needed tourism revenues.

"Egyptian officials have informed us that two tourists of American citizenship have been kidnapped in Sinai," an embassy spokesperson said. "We are currently working to confirm that. In the meantime we are working with Egyptian authorities to do as much as possible to ensure the tourists' safety."

The tourists were among a group traveling between St. Catherine's Monastery, at the foot of Mount Sinai, and the Red Sea resort of Sharm El Sheikh, NBC News reported.

Bedouin sources told AFP the kidnappers were demanding the release of relatives held in Egyptian jails. South Sinai security chiefs, in coordination with Bedouin elders, were in talks with the kidnappers to secure the release of the hostages.

A military plane was deployed to the area as a search operation started, Egyptian state TV said.

The kidnapping took place just days after Bedouins in north Sinai briefly seized 25 Chinese workers to demand the release of Islamist relatives detained over bombings in the peninsula between 2004 and 2006.

A French tourist was killed during a shooting in Sharm el Sheikh last weekend, raising concerns over security in the popular resort area.

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July 02, 2011

Washington Post tells Arab Spring to "Just Do It" with the Elections

Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post, basing herself on initial elections in post communist Poland apparently working to move democracy forward despite flaws, says that the lack of fully functional electoral procedures shouldn't delay getting people as a whole into the process of participation. Otherwise the old regimes' allies and like-minded in the state will reassert themselves or start a new despotism afresh.

Continue reading "Washington Post tells Arab Spring to "Just Do It" with the Elections"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 30, 2011

Moussa "Anti Israeli demagogue"

This rather strikes me as a sad indication of the extreme Israel centric lens through which US commentators, that the focus of this Anti Amr Moussa article is on his Israel stance, Moussa: The Anti-Israel Demagogue Who Will Likely Be Egypt’s Next President | The New Republic rather than on his rudderless demagorery (of which the Israel baiting is least remarkable). Rather more damning as to his political instincts is this re Libya, which actually more or less ran counter to popular feeling:

The Obama administration got a taste of Moussa’s anti-Western populism as it tried to build international support for intervening in Libya. Although the Arab League initially voted to back the no-fly zone on March 12, Moussa lambasted the attacks on Qaddafi’s forces a week later, telling Egypt’s state-run Middle East News Agency, “What we want is the protection of civilians and not the shelling of more civilians.” And though Moussa issued yet another reversal two days later—this time restating the Arab League’s support for action against Qaddafi—his inelegant 360 should be a reminder that he has made his bones bucking the West. So while the fall of Mubarak raises hopes that Egypt will enjoy a post-authoritarian future, the prominence of Moussa threatens to revive Egypt’s anti-Western, Nasser-era past. And, most alarmingly, this is apparently what many Egyptians want.

As for the last item, well after Mubarek's bankrupt slavishness (and double-talk on a popular Egyptian level, not as if the Mubarek regime actually promoted at an educational / advocacy level pro Western orientations, rather the contrary), it is absolutely no surprise that many Egyptians harken back to the Nasser era and the perception of independence. That I think is not in itself problematic. Indeed, rather it could be healthy. Now, if it also means a roll-back of liberalisation, that is not good. However, as one sees with Tunisia, liberalisation done at the service of an oligarchy that corruptly eliminates competition tends to give a bad name to liberalisation.

The real indictment of Amr Moussa is his shiftless opportunism and consistent bad judgment.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:35 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

April 20, 2011

Carnegie + W Bank on NA and EU: True, False, Nuanced, Well-known?

Soliciting the experts regardng these summary statements via Carnegie and World Bank, below. Basic fact, nuanced, fundamentally off? I go with #1, but just confirming.

Continue reading "Carnegie + W Bank on NA and EU: True, False, Nuanced, Well-known?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 10, 2011

Pressing One's Mamlouk: Round Two for Egypt?

It appears the street protesters in Cairo are raising the ante and raising the anti-: anti-Tantawi and anti-post-Mubarak ruling council, that is. (I do suspect that the military government's focus on prosecuting Mubarak & Co. is an attempt to assuage the middle that they are on a path of reform and that the protesters are impatient troublemakers.) A three-way long term struggle appears underway, the Military Honchos versus The Young Revolutionary Liberalish Folks versus the Islamists with alliances shifting daily depending on the issue. Not a good thing that the army is threatening removal of demonstrators with "firmness and force" since, with apologies for being glib though I mean it with quite serious gravity, that is the literal recipe of rape.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 04, 2011

Egypt & Sectarian Violence: The Deep Security State

First, Kudos to Reason for picking this up, since it is otherwise being ignored. The Muslim extremist narrative is a fun and simple one. It gets nastier, however. Knowing Egypt, I give much credence to the accusations that - vaguely similar to apparently well-founded accusations in Algeria that a portion [not all, a portion, 25%? More? Less No one will ever know] of 'religious' violence is linked to manipulation of the security state:

Was the Mubarak Regime Complicit in Egypt's Sectarian Violence? - Hit & Run : Reason Magazine

The last year of the Hosni Mubarak regime was, according to The New York Times, "the bloodiest year in four decades of sectarian tensions in Egypt." Bookended by two attacks on Coptic churches in a country with a sizeable Christian minority, the year of bloodshed reinforced the idea that only a strongman could prevent Islamic fundamentalism from overrunning the Arab world's largest country.

But shortly before the Egyptian military moved against the Mubarak regime, Al Arabiya television reported allegations that the Egyptian government, not content with fighting actual Islamists, may have invented some of its own enemies. An official government probe is looking into reports that the New Year's Eve church bombing in Alexandria, initially blamed on Al-Qaeda, might actually have been perpetrated by the Egyptian government, with the intention of gaining sympathy and support from the West. The Saudi-backed TV station—founded as a moderate alternative to Al Jazeera, and host to Barack Obama's first formal interview as president in January 2009—also reported that British diplomats believe Egyptian Interior Minister Habib el-Adly had a whole department dedicated to these sorts of operations:

Emphasis added.

First, on the Italics emphasis: Founded as a moderate alternative!!?!? Reason write lapped up propaganda here. Rather founded out of Saudi annoyance at Jazeera criticism of themselves.

Second, the Interior Ministry accusation I can credit - of course that does not mean that all religious violence, discrimination against Copts and the like is due to Interior. Rather it suggests Interior probably exploited a real problem for its own agenda. I have long viewed, however, such violence and tension in Egypt as a symptom rather than a fundamental. Diminishing space, economic opportunity and a critical sense of desperation and fighitng over crumbs are the fundamental drivers.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:08 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 24, 2011

Revolution and Cultural Revival

This interesting note from our friend Nisrine Malek is worth reading (and less depressing the watching Libya go to hell.

Egypt has returned from the cultural backwaters | Nesrine Malik | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

Egypt has returned from the cultural backwaters

Once the dominant force in Arab culture, post-revolutionary Egypt now has the chance to return to this role

I think there is an opportunity, it is certainly true that despite what the American Gov agents are always telling me, Egypt ceased to be a though leader in the Arab world ... well more or less since Sadat.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:19 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 17, 2011

Sleazy Self-Promotion and the Lara Logan Incident

Although not directly spotlighting this issue, the apparent "wilding" attack on journalist Lara Logan amidst the Tahrir Square celebrations brings to mind my own thematically related essay from a few years back, which I sleazily and opportunistically link here.

Continue reading "Sleazy Self-Promotion and the Lara Logan Incident"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 15, 2011

Egypt: The Council of Wise Men

A...Council...of...Wise...Men? 3 comments. 1: WTF? 2: Like, WTF? 3: Really, now, what the f--- is up with that? On another note - probably G# or thereabouts -- I seriously do think that this Council of Wise Men (WTF?) is the closest thing to the USA party-line going on around there (not the simplistics of "puppets" but there is an alignment going on). So, no, o ye puppet spotters, to play your game, it's not the military, not the politically deceased Mubarak, but the correct answer is probably that merry band of sagacious male folks. And, by the way, a Council of Wise Men, like WTF?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:12 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

February 13, 2011

Military Coup? You say that like it's a bad thing

In consideration of points raised by colleagues and commentators here and elsewhere, who note that Generalissimo Mubarak was almost certainly squeezed out as President in Egypt. In essence, that departure does seem to have proceeded from a military coup or some couplike squeezure(?) of sorts. This fact was telegraphed implicitly in Communiques from the Super-Duper Army Honcho Roundtable. Further, since the transition did not involve the prescribed order of succession and power transfers the constitution demands, it appears that an extraconstitutional coup was also effected. That said: I am really having a hard time finding too much of a problem with all that.

Continue reading "Military Coup? You say that like it's a bad thing"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:21 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

February 11, 2011

The Mamlouk Coup: Mubarek Out, Long Live...

BBC News - Egypt crisis: President Hosni Mubarak resigns as leader

Wee wrinkle, the Gov is now the Military.

Constitution breached

Mubarek seems to me to be out because every time he opened his bloody mouth, it made things worse. The military evidently decided the was taking the ship down..

As noted here

But the army takeover looks very much like a military coup, our correspondent adds.

The constitution has been breached, he says, because officially it should be the speaker of parliament who takes over, not the army leadership.

Celebrations are normal, but I wouldn't do so myself quite as yet.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:15 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Walk Like a Tunisian

Looks like Mubarak blinked. NOW's the time to ask: what next? Have away.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:21 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

The Supreme Council & Communique No. X:

Interesting observations from Brian Whitaker:

Mubarak teases Egypt as his regime fragments | Brian Whitaker | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

There is also the mysterious business of the ominously titled "Communique Number One" from the supreme council of the armed forces saying that the military has begun taking "necessary measures to protect the nation" and "support the legitimate demands of the people".

What exactly does that mean, and how does it relate to Mubarak's non-resignation speech? Indeed, why did Mubarak need to make a speech at all if he is not resigning?

According to reports, the supreme council has met only three times in its history: in 1967 and 1973 (when the country was at war) – and on Thursday. Thursday's meeting was held without its chairman, Mubarak, and apparently the meeting was adjourned without formally concluding. A second communique has failed to clarify the army's position.

I remain convinced that the Mamlouks are simply manoeuvring.

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February 10, 2011

Egyptian Regime: Not Anyone's Puppet

One idea that is slowly fading from all sides in the Egypt drama -- for the most part -- is the simplistic notion or assertion that the Egyptian regime has been some sort of puppet for the USA. It is quite true that the US has great leverage – money, “good offices”, and weaponry supplies do talk – but the Mubarak government and its actions have their own genesis, as does the revolt. The regime will fall or endure as what it is: an Egyptian phenomenon. As to the bilateral relationship with the USA, America has been Egypt's client in the business sense of the term, not the other way around.

Continue reading "Egyptian Regime: Not Anyone's Puppet"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:55 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 09, 2011

Egypt Funding Machine bis

The financing of the government is also in play, as the issue of deposits with State banks comes to the fore.

FT.com / Emerging Markets - Egypt faces bleak outlook on debt

Egypt’s debt markets, particularly its local currency denominated bonds and bills, will find support from liquid local banks. However, these banks are not entirely uncritical buyers of Egyptian debt and could see their ability to finance the government deficit weaken if depositors continue to withdraw money.

The central bank was forced to cut the planned treasury bill sale this week to E£13bn ($2.9bn), and increase the price it paid to local banks that picked up almost all of the issue.

“On one hand you have a liquid local banking sector as an anchor but, on the other, you have a deterioration of Egypt’s credit profile,” says Mr Kolbe. “A lot depends on what happens on the political side but we expect the market to remain volatile and spreads to remain elevated at this stage.”

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 08, 2011

Egypt Sells Most of Treasury Debt Offered as Yields Climb to Two-Year High

Well that worked, but...:

Egypt Sells Most of Treasury Debt Offered as Yields Climb to Two-Year High - Bloomberg

Egypt raised most of the 15 billion Egyptian pounds ($2.5 billion) it sought at a debt auction as local banks stepped in to provide financing in the wake of protests aimed at ending President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule.

The government sold a total 13 billion pounds of bills, paying yields of 10.97 percent on 91-day notes, the highest rate in two years and up 147 basis points, or 1.47 percentage point, from the previous sale on Jan. 27. The yield is down from 14 percent in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse in September 2008.

“We were expecting yields to be higher but government banks especially National Bank of Egypt helped stabilize the market,” Khalil El Bawab, the head of fixed-income at Cairo- based EFG-Hermes Asset Management, said in a telephone interview. National Bank of Egypt Chairman Tarek Amer said that the bank will continue to buy government t-bills

Emphasis added
One part of the Gov stepped in to buy the other part's issuance.

Of course that is less liquidity for the private sector, but since Egyptian public banks do tied lending....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Egypt: the Mamlouk Market

An analysis from Daily Dish that 'gets the game' of what I have been calling on Giraffe, The Waiting Game:

The "Manufactured Safety" Of Egypt's Army - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

The basic facts: 1) The military profits handsomely from the current power structure. 2) Mubarak's unpopularity threatens to bring down the govenment and therefore put the military's spoils in jeopardy. 3) The military can't make Mubarak leave yet - otherwise power would transfer out of the military's hands. 4) The military can't crack down on the protesters because that would cause an internal rift - some members of the army would likely refuse to fire - which would risk mutiny. 5) For Egypt's veep, Omar Suleiman, to assume power he needs to either change the constitution or wait until the next election and rig the vote in his favor.

The private hostility and the public neutrality of the army makes sense if the military elite's main goal is to maintain its access to the treasury. The army is not neutral - it's tactical.

Quite.

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February 07, 2011

Neither Free Market nor Lbieral, Egypt

An Item I must return to as it is my speciality

Resentment Finds a Target In Ahmed Ezz - NYTimes.com

On paper, the changes transformed an almost entirely state-controlled economic system to a predominantly free-market one. In practice, though, a form of crony capitalism emerged, according to Egyptian and foreign experts. State-controlled banks acted as kingmakers, extending loans to families who supported the government but denying credit to viable businesspeople who lacked the right political pedigree.

This is in effect part of the problem of that kind of regime. The usual Left academic critique is that " IMF diktat"  (a phrase that one can only use if one has actually no experience with IMF and their limp-wristed ways with such regimes) forces 'neo-liberal'  economics down the throats of countries like Egypt. Quite the contrary, Egypt came to these reforms on the bankruptcy of their state-driven model, with all the crony-ism and gross and massive inefficiencies that State models everywhere have shown. They adopted part of the IMF & WB advice re privatisation for greater efficiency, but only part. They did not adopt free market reforms as such. Unfortunately, privatisations were merely transfers from nominal state ownership with monopoly control to regime-cronies with monopoly control (as well as Military related control). More efficient than the state, yes, but not overall better for the population. Pseudo free market without a reasonably free press to critique regime and cronies, and without a reasonably free financial system (the Egyptian system remains massively state dominated, which as this note correctly indicates, doesn't mean more ' social' direction, it means more ability for rent extraction), you get this Frankenstein system.

Of course people hate this system, it combines the worst features of both systems.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 04, 2011

Best Quote So Far -- From Egypt's new PM

Originally from CNN:

[Egyptian Prime Minister] Ahmed Shafiq, . . . appealed to his compatriots, especially Egypt's youth, to show patience . . . "It has great meaning not to hurt each other*, [or] hurt our reputation," he said. "Do they want what happened in Tunisia to happen here?"

Meanwhile, my proposed ten day rule of street revolutions faces the big test.

Continue reading "Best Quote So Far -- From Egypt's new PM"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:34 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 03, 2011

Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?

A very short answer, only in the delusional imaginations of certain Americans.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?
08 Feb 2011 05:19 pm

by Conor Friedersdorf

Above Mickey Kaus surmises yes, and Bob Wright forcefully insists no. On this one, I agree with Bob, and I've never understood why seeing the United States military invade a country and establish a democracy would inspire revolutions elsewhere. It was never ignorance of democracy's existence that was stopping other Arab populations from rising up – and it isn't as if "get invaded by America" was a viable strategy or a desired thing elsewhere.

 

 

Continue reading "Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:21 AM | Comments (0)

The Mubarek Gamble: The Counter-Rev.

A smart analysis,

Egypt protests: Mubarak shows his dark side | Simon Tisdall | Comment is free | The Guardian

Mubarak's speech to the nation on Tuesday night was widely misinterpreted. The president was, by turns, angry, defiant and unrepentant. He offered no apologies, proposed no new initiatives, gave no promise that his son Gamal would not succeed him, and instead lectured Egyptians on the importance of order and stability (which he alone could assure).

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February 02, 2011

Game over, Egyptian democracy lost

A useful article. I suspect accurate.

Game Over: The Chance For Democracy In Egypt Is Lost | The Middle East Channel

Game over: The chance for democracy in Egypt is lost
Posted By Robert Springborg Wednesday, February 2, 2011 - 4:23 PM Share

While much of American media has termed the events unfolding in Egypt today as "clashes between pro-government and opposition groups," this is not in fact what's happening on the street. The so-called "pro-government" forces are actually Mubarak's cleverly orchestrated goon squads dressed up as pro-Mubarak demonstrators to attack the protesters in Midan Tahrir, with the Army appearing to be a neutral force. The opposition, largely cognizant of the dirty game being played against it, nevertheless has had little choice but to call for protection against the regime's thugs by the regime itself, i.e., the military. And so Mubarak begins to show us just how clever and experienced he truly is. The game is, thus, more or less over.

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Mubarek Regime Strategy

An item worth reading to understand regime strategy

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Double Edged Influence

Abu Muqawwama has an obs re US Military influence & Egyptian officer corp

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The Shame of Tuesday: Cairo & The Grave

I entitled my thread at Giraffe Boards The Mubarek Denouement: Egypt dances past the grave thinking I was being wryly amusing.

That turns out not to have been the case. As I started reflecting in that thread, I have been suspecting for several days now - based not only on following the news but things I have heard from friends in region who ... well have a reason to know such information that Mubarek had sworn not do as Ben Ali.

Today's events, after some hope on Tuesday that something could move, showed that Mubarek & Co. believe that they can bluster their way through this, and that their analysis of Ben Ali - he was cowardly, his nerve cracked - is driving them to drive Egypt towards the abyss.

Repeating from the Thread's last post.

Emphasis added.

Returning to my sceptical analysis of weeks back, I do feel I was right in that the Mubarek system has deeper roots than Ben Ali, and there are more people with more to lose if he goes. That opens the door to the Chinese option, although that US$1bn might slightly counteract.

A comment in the same vein by Richard Spencer of the Telegraph:

What I fear here is that Mubarek et al are generating a situation where neither they nor the moderate protesters come out whole, and that in fact he is preparing the ground for an extreme end of the Ikhouan.

This in contrast with Ben Ali, as my wife said, we are just now appreciating what he spared Tunisia.

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January 29, 2011

Error 404 -- Far East of Suez

Concern about fallout from Egypt's public uprising spreads far.

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