The MENA '48 Archives

February 19, 2012

Problematic but re Egypt and over reaction

Judith Miller is a gullible git, but this arty in her new ghetto (newsmax, well deserved) Egypt on the Brink: An Exclusive Look at the Hunted Men Who Brought Growth and Reform does touch on some legit issues (between channeling indirect Mubarek regim apologia) re the liberal reformers. Perhaps not what she meant but it reflects on who liberal (economic) reform was contaminated by cronyism and thus deeply compromised. She does not grapple with that honestly, sadly.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 08, 2012

Egypt-US relations further downhill: military delegation cancels Washington visit.

As this has interesting regional implications, some thoughts on the FT arty Egypt-US meetings cancelled amid trial row and on the recent Gallup polling on Egypt and US assistance

From FT
 

An Egyptian army delegation visiting Washington abruptly cancelled meetings with senior American lawmakers on Monday as US government officials warned the country’s $1.5bn aid package was in jeopardy.

Senators Carl Levin and John McCain, the Democratic chairman and ranking Republican on the US Senate armed services committee, were among a number of congressional leaders scheduled to meet the Egyptian military representatives in the coming week.
 
But the delegation was recalled home after 19 US citizens, including Sam LaHood, the son of the US transportation secretary, were referred by the Egyptian authorities for criminal trial on charges of operating civil society groups without permission and receiving unauthorised foreign funding.

I'm actually fairly surprised that Egypt has decided to play hard ball on this.  They seem to truly feel that USA won't dare suspend aide, however, I don't know the US administration will be able to hold back the political backlash:
 

Cairo’s decision to try US citizens has put in doubt $1.5bn of US aid after a warning from Hillary Clinton, secretary of state, at the weekend. “We will have to closely review these matters as it comes [to the] time for us to certify whether or not any of these funds from our government can be made available under these circumstances,” she said.

The Obama administration repeated its warning on Monday. “We have underscored how serious a problem these actions are. We have said clearly that these actions could have consequences for our relationship, including regarding our assistance programs,” said Jay Carney, White House spokesman.

It's worth noting the amounts, Econ aide at USD 250 mln is enormous. Serious American allies don't receive such levels. A questionable one....

Under the budget approved by Congress for this year, Egypt is to receive $1.3bn in military aid and $250m in economic aid. However, allocation of the military aid requires the secretary of state to certify that Egypt is supporting the transition to a civilian government, including holding fair elections and ensuring freedom of speech.

And for the political climate in USA, this looks quite problematic to support:

Opposition to aid for Egypt continues to grow. On Friday, Patrick Leahy, the Democratic senator who chairs the subcommittee on foreign aid, said: “We want to send a clear message to the Egyptian military that the days of blank cheques are over.”

More than 40 members of Congress signed a letter sent to both the Obama administration and the Egyptian military council warning that it would be difficult to maintain aid in “the absence of a quick and satisfactory resolution to this issue”.

On this last observation below, (which I suppose suggests that just before aide is cut the trials will be suspended (but not dismissed) or some similar bit of theatre, the Gallup polling rather suggest that they are playing to a willing audience. Of course, it does raise substantial questions about the US-Egyptian relationship, given a political system that has positively nurtured paranoia re outsiders, including supposed allies.
 

Rabab al-Mahdi, an Egyptian political analyst, said the ruling generals appeared to be involved in a game of brinkmanship with the US but that it was unlikely they would allow the aid to be cut. She said that for the moment they seemed to be playing to nationalist sentiments in a country deeply suspicious of US intentions in the region. ...“I think what we are seeing is part of a populist campaign on the part of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in which they take extreme positions against the US and foreign powers. It feeds into the propaganda [they have been spreading] about foreign plots to destroy Egypt.”

The IHT / NYT arty on this subject  In Egypt, a History of Distrust of U.S.-Aided Groups - NYTimes.com

A useful reminder that the process was launched under the deposed President, again highlighting the very problematic fundamentals of that regime, happy to accept a nearly USD 2 bln bribe, but at the same time played a double game.

Two groups were targets of an Egyptian investigation into their role in supporting opposition to President Hosni Mubarak before he fell from power last February. “Data was collected about the activities of the American Embassy through the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute,” Mr. Mubarak’s former intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, said in a deposition.

...

That being said, I do agree with these observations:

But Paul J. Sullivan, a Middle East expert at Georgetown University who has long studied the Egyptian military, cautioned against interpreting the criminal charges as a result merely of high-level machinations. He said Egyptians of all affiliations are wary of undue influence from the United States, which they view as having propped up the Mubarak regime for many years.

“I understand the purpose of the N.D.I. and I.R.I.,” Dr. Sullivan said of the Democratic and Republican institutes. “But this is a newly freed state and a very brittle and emotional environment. It’s not the best environment for them to work. How would we react if a foreign country came here to teach us how to conduct elections?”

Many Egyptians appear to share the military-led government’s suspicions of American motives. “Eighty percent of the people think this is America’s work,” said Sherif Mohamed, 33, surveying metal fragments, garbage fires and dusty tear gas residue left on his block from five days of battles between protesters and security forces in Cairo.

“America does not like Islam,” he said, echoing a common sentiment here.

In recent days, several members of the newly elected Egyptian Parliament have said they look forward to the results of the investigation, asserting that it was wrong for the United States to violate Egyptian laws barring foreign financing of nonprofits.

Emphasis added. Given USA mainstreet popular paranioa about all things foreign (and the lunatic conspiracy theories that seem to have wide credit in the populist right like NAFTA highway, etc), one can hardly disagree.

However, turning to the Gallup note re Most Egyptians Oppose U.S. Economic Aid beyond the headline that ~70% of Egyptians oppose US assistance to Egypt, economic or political, the non-headline result that there is openness to international assistance via WB or IMF rather suggests a specific problematic relationship that the US would be better served from stepping back from:

LOS ANGELES -- About 7 in 10 Egyptians surveyed by Gallup in December 2011 oppose U.S. economic aid to Egypt, and a similar percentage opposes the U.S. sending direct aid to civil society groups. This rebuke of U.S. financial support may be a challenge for Egypt's newly elected parliament and its future president as the government attempts to bolster the nation's financial stability.
....

Egyptians are much more willing to receive aid from international institutions, with 50% favoring this type of help. Egypt's military and political leaders initally rejected an offer of support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but later changed their minds. Last month, Masood Ahmed, Director for the Middle East and Central Asia Department for the IMF, was in Egypt to discuss a potential $3.2 billion IMF loan to Egypt. Egyptian leaders' ability to attract foreign aid and investment will be important to collecting the capital needed to move the nation's economy forward.
...

Egytians are nearly as likely to favor aid from Arab governments as they are to oppose help from the U.S. Almost 7 in 10 favor aid from Arab governments.This may in part reflect high-profile announcements by several of the country's Arab neighbors about their involvement in projects to help rebuild Egypt's economy.

...

However, some Egyptian politicians have begun to voice concerns about collecting on their neighbors' promises. Fayza Abouelnaga, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation in Egypt, recently noted that her country had received only $500 million of the $3.7 billion promised by Saudi Arabia and $500 million of the $1.5 billion pledged by Qatar. Further, she said the United Arab Emirates has paid none of its promised $3 billion. Abouelnaga estimated in December that Egypt's foreign debt reached $34.4 billion, representing 15% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

Well, Gulf state promises should always be subject to an enormous discount rate. Like 50% plus. Even on their private investment front, they have an El Dorado image, but actual investments in real terms lags badly.
 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:00 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 07, 2012

Most Eguptians oppose US Econ Aid

Such is the news, perhaps non American aide is less dimly viewed.Most Egyptians Oppose U.S. Economic Aid

About 7 in 10 Egyptians surveyed by Gallup in December 2011 oppose U.S. economic aid to Egypt, and a similar percentage opposes the U.S. sending direct aid to civil society groups. This rebuke of U.S. financial support may be a challenge for Egypt's newly elected parliament and its future president as the government attempts to bolster the nation's financial stability.

Given the history USA has in Egypt, this is not a surprise. 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 06, 2012

End American (and other) Aid to Egypt

Noted this via the Arabist, frankly Steve Cook is spot on: From the Potomac to the Euphrates » Egypt and the United States: It’s Not You, It’s Me

I say we oblige Aboul Naga and wind down the aid program—including military assistance—as soon as practical. It’s hard to run against the “foreign hand” if there is no foreign hand. In addition to undermining Aboul Naga’s claims (and hopefully weakening her) bringing an end to the aid program and shutting down the USAID mission has multiple political benfits. First, Washington will no longer be in the unseemly position of providing taxpayer largesse—however small in the grand scheme of things—to a government that resents the United States and clearly does not share its values. Second, it will provide an opportunity for a much-needed change in military-to-military relations in which the United States merely pays for the services it needs like expedited transit through the Suez Canal. Third, it is consistent with this moment of empowerment and dignity for Egyptians many of whom do not want U.S. assistance either because they believe it actually stands in the way of a democratic transition or accept Aboul Naga’s argument along with those who couldn’t care less about U.S. assistance because it doesn’t touch their lives. Finally, it will free up funds for the United States to help others who actually might want Washington’s help, perhaps the Tunisians, Moroccans, or some sub-Saharan African countries would be grateful for development assistance.

This goes for others aide as well (UK, Germany).

Assistance spent on Tunisia, Morocco, the Sahel, would make rather more sense. Egypt, well, would do well to go through a "cure."
 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:13 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Econ model for democracy survival

While the author's scepticism re the utility of the modelling is well advised, the two main countries chances as modelled sound right: Economic Growth and the Survival of New Democracies « Dart-Throwing Chimp

I’ll wrap this post up by going back to where we started, namely, the Middle East after the “Arab awakening.” Even though GDP growth doesn’t contribute much to it, the model’s overall performance isn’t bad. After looking at those ROC curves, I wondered what the model would say about the prospects for the survival of new democracies in three Arab countries on the cusp of new tries at democracy: Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Of the three, only Tunisia would already qualify as democratic by my definition, but Egypt and Libya are both in the midst of transitions from authoritarian rule that could put them over the threshold soon. So I took the IMF’s latest projections of their growth rates and plugged them into the model, along with recent data on their levels of economic development and my best guess as to whether or not they would qualify as acutely polarized according to the data set I used for that indicator. Here’s what came back as estimates of the probability that each of those new democracies would make it to their sixth birthday, assuming that, of the three, only Tunisia would not qualify as acutely polarized:

Tunisia: 82%
Egypt: 48%

Egypt is quite screwed.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 03, 2012

American politics, non-existence of Arab Xians

Worth a read, came across by accident

Speaking with Palestinian-American Republican Who Confronted GOP at Debate | Politics | Religion Dispatches

Extract

They also demonstrated their ignorance of a crucial part of the world. The Middle East isn’t exclusively Muslim; Hassan, for example, points out that he and his “massive family” are part of “a vast Palestinian community… in North Florida, nearly all of them Greek Orthodox or Catholic.”

But Hassan gets the anti-Muslim bigotry, especially because it comes back to haunt him (he, an Arab Christian American, is tarred with Islamist Hamas). For those in the GOP who might be reading this, allow me to tell you: The percentage of Christians among the Palestinian population is about the same as the percentage of African Americans in the U.S.A.

For a party so concerned with America’s Christian identity, Romney and Gingrich’s dismissal of the Palestinians is part of their broader disinterest in the Muslim world, and its diversities and differences. Namely, most Muslims aren’t Arabs, and most Arab Americans are Christians. You read that correctly.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Egyptian Tourism, not getting better PR

Egypt just is not getting any breaks - nor creating any. Besides the football riots, we have kidnappings and violence in the Sinia and in Sharm El Sheikh and St. Catherine's area.

Gunmen Kidnap 2 Americans, Egyptian In Sinai Peninsula | Fox News
Now this is probably just your old-school Yemani type kidnapping, but along with other events, I can not see Egypt recovering its badly needed tourism revenues.

"Egyptian officials have informed us that two tourists of American citizenship have been kidnapped in Sinai," an embassy spokesperson said. "We are currently working to confirm that. In the meantime we are working with Egyptian authorities to do as much as possible to ensure the tourists' safety."

The tourists were among a group traveling between St. Catherine's Monastery, at the foot of Mount Sinai, and the Red Sea resort of Sharm El Sheikh, NBC News reported.

Bedouin sources told AFP the kidnappers were demanding the release of relatives held in Egyptian jails. South Sinai security chiefs, in coordination with Bedouin elders, were in talks with the kidnappers to secure the release of the hostages.

A military plane was deployed to the area as a search operation started, Egyptian state TV said.

The kidnapping took place just days after Bedouins in north Sinai briefly seized 25 Chinese workers to demand the release of Islamist relatives detained over bombings in the peninsula between 2004 and 2006.

A French tourist was killed during a shooting in Sharm el Sheikh last weekend, raising concerns over security in the popular resort area.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 02, 2012

Illustrative of Egypt's developing political culture, Death to the Marsha

As horrid as the football match disaster was, this just does not speak well : Calls to Execute Egypt's Military Ruler Echo on Cairo's Streets - NYTimes.com

According to an eyewitness account posted online, one of the team’s star players, Mohammed Abu Trika, joined the fans in chanting for Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who leads the military council that still rules Egypt, to be put to death. Modifying the popular revolutionary chant, “The People Demand the Fall of the Regime,” the protesters shouted, “The People Demand the Execution of the Marshal.”

But fifty odd years of conspiracy thinking...

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Egyptian Fantasies, American NeoCon dreams

I spotted this intriguingly deluded and/or dishonest read of the Egyptian revolution and American policy via, if I recall, Andrew Sullivan. Although I haven't any particular faith in the Egyptian revolution, this eval is simply daft.

Eric Trager: Happy Birthday To Egypt’s Doomed Revolution | The New Republic

Exactly one year ago today, I stood in front of the Lawyers Syndicate in downtown Cairo and watched as a few thousand protesters suddenly streamed into the area from the north, overwhelmed Egypt’s notoriously violent riot police, and pushed onward towards Tahrir Square. That mile-long march, which culminated with the protesters bursting through a human chain of officers and seizing the Square, was the most inspiring thing that I’ve ever witnessed, and it remains so. Long presumed to be politically passive, ordinary Egyptians bravely amassed with one simple demand: That decades of dictatorship had to end. When Hosni Mubarak resigned eighteen tumultuous days later, the Arab Spring had bloomed.

Ahem, that would have been when Ben Ali left... but leaving aside Egypto-centricism,

Or so we wanted to believe. The reality of the past twelve months, however, has undone whatever high hopes one might have held. Egypt is now headed for radical theocratic, rather than liberal democratic, rule. And a befuddled Obama administration has failed to do anything to stop the coming disaster.

This is simply daft.

First, one had to be deluded if last January one thought Egypt was heading towards liberal democratic rule. And to advance the argument, either stupid, deluded or simply dishonest.

Of course currently it is far from the case they're headed towards "radical theocratic" rule - it rather looks more like the same old Neo-Mamlouk rule with a bit of a Brotherhood façade. And the Brotherhood isn't radical theocrats, nor even radical religious. Nour party is, but they're far from allies at this stage.

As for the swipe at the Obama administration... That is in

IT IS TEMPTING to believe that things might have turned out differently had Washington worked harder to bolster the young revolutionaries who seemingly exemplified America’s own liberal values when they took to the streets last January.

Sure, if one is inclined to wishful thinking and hasn't the slightest fucking clue as to Egyptian society and political structures after decades of Mubarek dictatorship.

These brave activists, after all, had won America’s hearts to the tune of an 82-percent approval rating at the height of the revolt, and their photogenic faces carried the promise of a more democratic, friendly Egypt.

Uhhh. right.

But the activists were never who we hoped they were. Far from being liberal, their ranks were largely comprised of Nasserists, revolutionary socialists, and Muslim Brotherhood youths—an alliance of convenience for opposing Mubarak and, later, for denouncing the U.S.

Well, surprising that, denouncing the USA, after USA poured billions and billions into supporting the very regime they were toppling.

As for the idea of liberalism in the revolution... What a peculiar fantasy.

Thus, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Egypt in March 2011, a group of leading activists refused to meet with her. They also turned out to be intolerant conspiracy theorists: When classically Cairoesque rumors that a “Jewish Masonic” ceremony was to be held at the pyramids on November 11, the April 6th Youth Movement’s Democratic Front declared that this non-existent event should be prohibited. “We are committed to the achievements of the revolution, which emphasized freedom,” they said in a statement. “But freedom is not absolute freedom, and … it is constrained by the regulations and beliefs of the Egyptian people, who do not accept that these celebrations be protected in the wake of the revolution.”

Oh how very surprising.... Egyptian political culture was not magically transformed by people bopping around Tahrir Square. Stunning insight.

Not that the revolutionaries were the horse to bet on anyway.

As opposed to who to bet on?

Their continued reliance on street protests following Mubarak’s ouster angered the wider Egyptian public, which desperately wanted a return to normalcy. In late October—only one day before the registration deadline—they finally formed an electoral coalition, the Revolution Continues Alliance (RCA), to compete in parliamentary elections, but it was too late. The RCA won merely 2.35 percent of the parliamentary seats, and will play a minimal role in shaping Egypt’s political future. Meanwhile, Islamist parties captured nearly 70 percent of the vote by tapping into the Egyptian public’s religious sentiments and using their well-established social services networks to turn out supporters.

Again, very stunning that after decades of Mubarek regime actively working to stunt any and all political activity outside of the Neo Mamlouk system, the youth didn't get it right. Who could have possibly predicted such a thing. Oh just about anyone, that's right.

Well, that's how revolutions work.

The Obama administration, however, had already pegged its hopes on the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which took power after Mubarak’s resignation with Washington’s approval—and reasonably so. After all, the military’s historic relations with Washington and its widespread support among the Egyptian public seemed to make it the ideal partner for shepherding Egypt toward a stable, democratic future.

Ideal partner?

What other choices were there?

Our dear writer has already highlighted the youth groups of non-Islamist cast were disorganised and inexperienced - and not terribly well-disposed to USA (although he glosses over the reasons). And it's clear his feelings on the Islamists....

So apparently the American administration was to invent some magical partners in Egypt.

But there were early signs that the SCAF was far more concerned about stability than it was interested in democracy. Last spring, as sectarian violence rose considerably, the military hesitated to interfere in domestic strife for fear of inciting a backlash.

Big surprise, SCAF not interested in democracy. I doubt anyone in the American administration, in private, was particularly surprised by this.

...

Then, when a sluggish transition towards civilian rule catalyzed new Tahrir Square protests in the autumn, the military unleashed an unprecedented crackdown, entirely abdicating whatever democratic credentials it could once lay claim to. Between October and December, the military killed at least 80 demonstrators and wounded hundreds, deploying armored military vehicles, snipers, and weapons-grade teargas again its own people, and manipulating the state-run media to incite civilians to take up arms against protesters. Meanwhile, the SCAF subjected at least 12,000 Egyptians to military trials and, in late December, stormed the offices of seventeen pro-democratic NGOs, many of which are U.S.-funded.

True.

As the SCAF’s repressive rule has undermined its legitimacy both within Egypt and abroad, the Obama administration has looked increasingly to the Muslim Brotherhood as a potential partner. Thus, administration’s policy of “limited contacts” with the Muslim Brotherhood, which it announced in June, expanded to diplomatic meetings with the organization in October, and Deputy Secretary of State William Burns met with the Brotherhood’s political leaders in January. The Brotherhood, the thinking goes, won a 47 percent plurality in the recent parliamentary elections, and Washington’s interests are hardly served by having hostile relations with Egypt’s legitimately elected leaders. This argument, however, is only half right: While Washington should maintain open lines of communication with the Brotherhood, it should have no illusions about the Brotherhood’s willingness to act as a partner on key American interests.

Emphasis added.

And why is it expected, after decades of American backed dictatorship, any Egyptian party coming out of the Revolution is particularly "partnering" on key American interests (whatever they are in this author's active imagination). What there is to criticize in the American approach right now escapes as the Brotherhood is clealry a popular power. Our dear author doesn't like them, but elections have consequences.

In this vein, the Brotherhood’s leaders have said repeatedly that the organization intends to put the Camp David Accords to a referendum—a strategy that it apparently believes will enable it to sink Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel while escaping the blame.

Ah Israeli interests.

Of course this rendition of the Brotherhood's position is rather tendentious, as the majority of declarations by the Brotherhood have in fact indicated they're not inclined to

Brotherhood leaders have additionally called for banning bikinis, beach bathing, and alcohol despite the fact that these are essential elements to Egypt’s tourism industry, which comprises roughly ten percent of Egypt’s stagnating economy.

Again, tendentious.

Some have, only to be rebuked.

The organization also supports new legislation that would limit foreign funding of NGOs, thereby undercutting Washington’s ability to aid pro-democratic organizations.

Oh what a surprise, after decades of Americans supporting a dictatorship and engaging in faux democracy promo, why post revolution they're less than keen on Americans funding NGOs... Odd given American sensitivities about anything foreign funded in USA.

(I'll leave aside again the factualness of the claim - here I haven't noted the Brotherhood promoting this in specific, but perhaps I did miss that).

Finally, and perhaps most consequentially, the Brotherhood intends to establish the sharia as the principal source of Egyptian legislation and criminalize criticism of Islamic law, thereby rendering Christians and secularists unequal citizens.

Again, exaggerated and tendentious.
...

Perhaps the administration is betting that recently reported negotiations between the SCAF and Muslim Brotherhood will yield an agreement that satisfies both parties and, at the very least, promotes domestic tranquility. If so, it would be a telling indicator of where things stand: a year after the ebullience of Tahrir, an alliance between military autocrats and radical theocrats is viewed, sadly, as a best-case scenario.

Islamists are not per se theocrats, although he does love the scare language

But I would say that on the very days of Tahrir, the best case scenario was always this.

Eric Trager is the Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 02, 2011

Washington Post tells Arab Spring to "Just Do It" with the Elections

Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post, basing herself on initial elections in post communist Poland apparently working to move democracy forward despite flaws, says that the lack of fully functional electoral procedures shouldn't delay getting people as a whole into the process of participation. Otherwise the old regimes' allies and like-minded in the state will reassert themselves or start a new despotism afresh.

Continue reading "Washington Post tells Arab Spring to "Just Do It" with the Elections"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 10, 2011

October Date Set for Tunisian Elections

It looks like it's official. Tunisian constitutional assembly ("Constituent Assembly") elections will be held in October, back from the initial July set date. October 23 to be exact.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 26, 2011

Tunsia, sideways: July, October - depends. (Electoral com vs gov)

The Tunisian elections situation is unfortunately not clarifying. Yesterday it was on, today it is to be delayed. The Independent Electoral Commission (who seem to be serious people) declaring that elections must imperatively be delayed to October. Their arguments are rational (the issue of large numbers of voters without proper identity cards, not on electoral lists - didn't really matter before one should think - are real and solid ones). What is worrisome is the lack of clear authority - the electoral commission taking the position it is their call (and why not). The Government withholding comment.

Frankly, October makes more sense, it's painfully clear that the elections apparatus is not going to be really ready in time (we're almost in June) and a fiasco of a first election I think is more damaging than a 3 month delay - so long as the delay is a one-off event.

The Canadian Press: Tunisie: la commission électorale décide le report des élections

Tunisie: la commission électorale décide le report des élections

De The Associated Press 

TUNISIA, Tunisia — La Commission électorale indépendante persiste et signe: l'élection de l'Assemblée constituante, initialement prévue en Tunisie le 24 juillet, doit être reportée au 16 octobre.

Lors d'une conférence de presse jeudi après-midi, son président Kamel Jendoubi a justifié cette "décision" par des exigences de calendrier, sur la base des textes réglementaires régissant l'opération électorale.

Mardi, le gouvernement avait recommandé le maintien de la date initiale, malgré une première proposition de la commission favorable au report.

M. Jendoubi a longuement exposé devant les journalistes les délais nécessaires pour chaque étape de l'organisation du vote, depuis l'établissement des listes électorales jusqu'au dépôt des candidatures en passant par l'enregistrement des électeurs.

"Ce n'est pas de gaieté de coeur que nous avons décidé le report, mais le maintien de la date du 24 juillet aurait été beaucoup plus grave", a estimé Larbi Chouikha, membre de la commission, officiellement appelée "haute instance indépendante chargée de la préparation et de la supervision des élections".

Pour ce journaliste et universitaire, la commission avait pour souci de se conformer aux standards internationaux pour cette élection appelée à être "la première réellement libre, honnête et démocratique dans l'histoire de la Tunisie".

Il a, dans ce contexte, relevé de "nombreuses insuffisances et lacunes" techniques et logistiques que la commission se doit d'aplanir. Il a noté en particulier que quelque trois millions de citoyens ne figurent pas sur les listes électorales et des centaines de milliers d'autres ne disposent pas de cartes d'identité nationale ou détiennent des cartes anciennes non valides.

MM. Jendoubi et Chouikha ont éludé la question de savoir si la décision de la commission était définitive et irrévocable et si elle pouvait être remise en cause par le président de la République Fouad Mébazzaa et le gouvernement.

Interrogé sur ce point par l'Associated Press, le porte-parole du conseil des ministres Taïeb Baccouche s'est abstenu de tout commentaire. "La question sera examinée en conseil des ministres mardi prochain", a-t-il seulement indiqué.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 24, 2011

Tunisian election delay, October isn't a coup or

Sunday's demarche to delay the elections, noted here Tunisians split on call to delay free elections - The National is not a bad thing, given what I am seeing on preparation on the ground.

Not just an issue of the Islamist party being the only one with its act together, but it seems clear to me that in real terms, a few more months of organisation time is in fact needed (electoral lists, all kinds of organisational fundamentals). October is not deadly. Rather the push for July, opposition should push for benchmarks that October sticks.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:12 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

May 22, 2011

Obama Speech (bis): It's the Israel game

Well, I must say I misread that speech, I thought it was a somewhat banal (as I listened to it, in translation queerly enough), boring speech of no consequence. However, Obama Challenges Israel to Make Hard Choices Needed for Peace indicates in fact it was an interesting long-game gambit re the Israel-Palestine issue, wrapped up in the Arab 48 package.

Obama Challenges Israel to Make Hard Choices Needed for Peace
 
WASHINGTON — President Obama, speaking on Sunday to the nation’s foremost pro-Israel lobbying group, repeated his call for Palestinian statehood based on Israel’s pre-1967 borders adjusted for land swaps, issuing a challenge to the Israeli government to “make the hard choices that are necessary to protect a Jewish and democratic state for which so many generations have sacrificed.”

In his remarks to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the president, while offering praise for the relationship with Israel, did not walk back from his speech on Thursday, which had infuriated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. Rather, the president took indirect aim at Mr. Netanyahu, first by repeating what the Israeli prime minister so objected to — the phrase pre-1967 borders — and then by challenging those whom he said had “misrepresented” his position.

“Let me repeat what I actually said on Thursday,” Mr. Obama said in firm tones at one point, “not what I was reported to have said.”

“I said that the United States believes that negotiations should result in two states, with permanent Palestinian borders with Israel, Jordan, and Egypt, and permanent Israeli borders with Palestine. The borders of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, so that secure and recognized borders are established for both states.”

The president emphasized the “mutually agreed swaps,” then went into an elaboration of what he believes that means. Mr. Netanyahu, in his critique of Mr. Obama’s remarks, had ignored the “mutually agreed swaps” part of the president’s proposal.

“Since my position has been misrepresented several times, let me reaffirm what “1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps” means,” Mr. Obama said. “By definition, it means that the parties themselves — Israelis and Palestinians — will negotiate a border that is different than the one that existed on June 4, 1967. It is a well known formula to all who have worked on this issue for a generation. It allows the parties themselves to account for the changes that have taken place over the last 44 years.”

I have to say, he has real balls if he continues this. But doubtless backing down is worse than not now.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:09 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

May 15, 2011

The GCC Monarchies Demarche (Jordan and... Morocco???)

Catching up on this piece of strange news, FT reported that the GCC had extended invite to Morocco and Jordan to join the GCC...

The Gulf Co-operation Council could be turning itself into the club of Arab monarchies as it considers bringing Jordan and Morocco into its fold, a move that would strengthen the political and economic capacity of the two countries’ leaders to fend off any popular challenge.

In a surprise announcement late on Tuesday, the GCC, which joins six oil-producing Gulf Arab states, said it was considering a request by Morocco and Jordan to join the bloc, even though the two poorer countries have little in common with existing members.

Following a GCC summit in Riyadh, Abdullatif al-Zayani, the secretary-general, said foreign ministers would be holding talks with the two non-Gulf countries to complete the procedures required for membership. It is not yet clear if membership will be granted or in what form.

The GCC was formed in 1981 in the wake of the Iranian revolution as an alliance of oil-producing monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.

This is, quite frankly, nonsensical. There is perhaps some vague Association logic with Jordan. But ... Morocco???

FT.com in its follow up only raises more questions in the later case 

Now, after decades of canny diplomacy and shifting loyalties, Jordan is finally preparing to enter what many in the country see as the safest harbour in the entire Middle East: the Gulf Co-operation Council, the alliance formed by the conservative, oil-drenched monarchies along the Persian Gulf.

According to analysts, the move would answer an old dilemma: “Since the collapse of Iraq [in 2003], Jordan has been very much left out in the cold. This move means that Jordan would become part of a collective – economically, politically and strategically,” said Nawaf Tell, the director of the Jordanian Center for Strategic Studies and a former diplomat.

Jordan was invited to the join the Gulf Co-operation Council only this week, along with Morocco. But while Moroccan commentators reacted with surprise to the announcement, saying they were unaware the country had applied in the first place, the response in Jordan was one of unconcealed delight.

At least Jordan has some direct cultural and geographic touch on GCC. Politically, however, I do not see this as being all that genuinely helpful to the Hashemite Monarchy, nor economically. The deep logic really escapes, although in some ways it is a better fit than Yemen.

The Moroccan side is just in the realm of bizarre, however, and I am actually stunned that the Palace pursued such a demarche (did they?)

In Morocco, analysts agree that closer association with the Gulf oil producers will bring economic advantages. But they also point out that the proposal has no geographical logic and appears to be politically driven.

“We were all very surprised by this,” said Nadia Lamlili, editor-in-chief of Economie et Entreprises magazine in Casablanca. “I’m not sure it has really been thought through,” she added.

Morocco has historically been part of the regional Arab Maghreb Union, which includes Algeria, Tunisia and Libya but has never made much progress towards economic integration, hampered especially by long-standing political problems between Morocco and Algeria.

A Moroccan source close to the palace emphasised on Thursday the historical association between Morocco and Gulf monarchies and said the GCC invitation should be seen in a long-term, strategic perspective, but not as preparing the way for an alliance among monarchies.

Well, actually I doubt such an association even brings any economic advantages, given the inability of the Gulf investors to really get their heads around the fact that Maghreb works differently than the Gulf or Machreq.

Going to have to talk to my palace friends to see what the take is - I wonder if on GCC got out ahead of where Morocco really is, given the upcoming constitutional reforms, etc.

For once I sympathise with otherwise somewhat annoying and tedious 20 February Movement.

Morocco’s February 20 Movement, which has been pushing for political reform, was sceptical. Osama El Khalifi, one of the movement’s founders, said the proposal looked like an attempt “to build a coalition against countries that have succeeded in making a change”.

That assessment is shared by many Jordanians. “The reading many people here have is that this is the [Arab] kingdoms trying to stand together against the Arab spring and the Arab revolution,” the Amman-based western envoy said.

Politically I don't think this is really helpful at all for the monarchy in Morocco.

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Recessions & Stability: Tunisia, Egypt

No surprise that  Recession fears for Egypt and Tunisia (FT) are looming, given the ongoing instability.

Mr Abed [of IFI] was optimistic about the prospects of Egypt financing its current account deficit. He said that Gulf countries were likely to provide a package of measures including grants, long-term loans and deposits into the Egyptian central bank with development banks and the International Monetary Fund likely to bridge any remaining gap.

However, I have deep scepticism that the Gulf States are going to genuinely come up with much money.  Egypt, perhaps, but not Tunisia.  

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May 10, 2011

Tremors in Tunisia?

Curfews, demonstrations, crackdowns, dismissals of key figures, speculation on a coup, etc. in the birthplace of the Arab Spring, and it's not even summer yet. But maybe it's just the ups and downs of seasonal growth.

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May 02, 2011

Libyan reactions on Al Jazeera, re Ben Laden

Interesting street interviews in Ben Ghazi by Al Jazeera, just watching. Generally quite positive, several tying Ben Laden style to Gadhdhafi, or shrugging off to make statements ..

Western allies seem to have a good bit of decent goodwill in Eastern Libya, even among a few who seemed rather Salafi...

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May 01, 2011

Continued violations of Tunisian border (Tunisia puts army on alert for frontier)

Fairly worrisome although remains limited: Libye : La Tunisie sur un pied d'alerte à la frontière libyenne | International | Radio-Canada.ca

La Tunisie sur un pied d'alerte à la frontière libyenne
Un agent tunisien fouille une voiture avec un chien au poste-frontière de Dehiba, le 25 avril.

En Libye, de nouveaux affrontements entre les forces kadhafistes et les rebelles ont éclaté dimanche à la frontière tunisienne, près de la ville de Warzin.

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April 30, 2011

Moussa "Anti Israeli demagogue"

This rather strikes me as a sad indication of the extreme Israel centric lens through which US commentators, that the focus of this Anti Amr Moussa article is on his Israel stance, Moussa: The Anti-Israel Demagogue Who Will Likely Be Egypt’s Next President | The New Republic rather than on his rudderless demagorery (of which the Israel baiting is least remarkable). Rather more damning as to his political instincts is this re Libya, which actually more or less ran counter to popular feeling:

The Obama administration got a taste of Moussa’s anti-Western populism as it tried to build international support for intervening in Libya. Although the Arab League initially voted to back the no-fly zone on March 12, Moussa lambasted the attacks on Qaddafi’s forces a week later, telling Egypt’s state-run Middle East News Agency, “What we want is the protection of civilians and not the shelling of more civilians.” And though Moussa issued yet another reversal two days later—this time restating the Arab League’s support for action against Qaddafi—his inelegant 360 should be a reminder that he has made his bones bucking the West. So while the fall of Mubarak raises hopes that Egypt will enjoy a post-authoritarian future, the prominence of Moussa threatens to revive Egypt’s anti-Western, Nasser-era past. And, most alarmingly, this is apparently what many Egyptians want.

As for the last item, well after Mubarek's bankrupt slavishness (and double-talk on a popular Egyptian level, not as if the Mubarek regime actually promoted at an educational / advocacy level pro Western orientations, rather the contrary), it is absolutely no surprise that many Egyptians harken back to the Nasser era and the perception of independence. That I think is not in itself problematic. Indeed, rather it could be healthy. Now, if it also means a roll-back of liberalisation, that is not good. However, as one sees with Tunisia, liberalisation done at the service of an oligarchy that corruptly eliminates competition tends to give a bad name to liberalisation.

The real indictment of Amr Moussa is his shiftless opportunism and consistent bad judgment.

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April 29, 2011

Tunisian spillover: Qadhdhafi forces cross frontier

This has some unpleasant implications for spillover, as Pro-Gaddafi forces clash with Tunisian military | Energy & Oil | Reuters

 

By Zoubeir Souissi

DEHIBA, Tunisia, April 29 (Reuters) - Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi crossed into neighbouring Tunisia and fought a gun battle with Tunisian troops in a frontier town on Friday as Libya's conflict spilled beyond its borders.

Pro-Gaddafi forces fired shells into the town of Dehiba, damaging buildings and injuring at least one resident, and a group of them drove into the town in a truck, local people and a Reuters photographer in the town said.

The Libyan government troops were pursuing anti-Gaddafi rebels from the restive Western Mountains region of Libya who fled into Tunisia in the past few days after Gaddafi forces overran the border post the rebels had earlier seized.

"There were lots of clashes in the town this morning. Lots of gunshots. The Tunisian military clashed with Gaddafi's forces ... Some of Gaddafi's people were killed," said Reuters photographer Zoubeir Souissi from the town.

"There are a lot of Gaddafi's people who were injured. They are in the hospital in Dehiba," he said.

Two residents also told Reuters that shells had fallen on the town from pro-Gaddafi positions across the border in Libya.

"Rounds from the bombardment are falling on houses.... A Tunisian woman was injured," one of the residents, called Ali, told Reuters by telephone.

...
 

"Given the gravity of what has happened... the Tunisian authorities have informed the Libyans of their extreme indignation and demand measures to put an immediate stop to these violations," a statement from the foreign ministry said.

Friday's clashes marked the first time that Libyan government ground forces had crossed the border and entered a Tunisian town.

... Tunisia toppled its own veteran leader, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, in a revolution earlier this year and many people there are sympathetic to the rebels fighting Gaddafi's forces. (Additional reporting by Tarek Amara and Matthew Tostevin in Tunis and Hamid Ould Ahmed in Algiers; Writing by Christian Lowe; Editing by Matthew Tostevin)

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April 28, 2011

Al Qaeda in Maghreb, Morocco, etc

It was odd timing, sad and odd, that I was thinking of reacting to a paragraph in NYT yesterday and this happens, Bomb attack in Morocco tourist cafe kills 14 | Reuters  and I note from this article that AQIM threat seems oddly spot on:

Security experts said the attack was in line with Islamist militants' previous attempts -- most of them disrupted by security services -- to undermine Morocco's rulers by targeting the tourism industry.

"The majority of plots are detected in their early stages because Moroccan authorities retain a very effective network of informants right down to street level," said Anna Murison of Exclusive Analysis, a consultancy.

"However, the regular recurrence of plots .... mean it is likely that a few will slip through the net," she said.

Last week, men claiming to be Moroccan members of al Qaeda's north African wing appeared in a video posted on YouTube threatening to attack Moroccan interests.

A masked speaker, who identified himself as Abu Abdulrahman, said the planned attacks were to avenge the detention of Islamists by Moroccan authorities.

In this context, Moroccan King Opens Door for Change - NYTimes.com

“I preached in that mosque but I never met any of these people in private, and I had certainly no knowledge about their plans,” said Mr. Fizazi, 63.

Now, he said, he counsels moderation and has accepted democratic practices like elections that he once spurned.

But he wants the king to do more. He and four others recently released, plus five still interned prisoners, have joined human rights advocates in demanding a fresh inquiry into the May 2003 bombing and subsequent interrogations and jailings, as well as investigation of three top officials, two of them close advisers to the king.

I was already reacting yesterday with great scepticism....

E

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Influence fantasies

I am always somewhat amused and puzzled when I read things like, Fatah-Hamas Deal Complicates U.S. Aid to Palestinians  :

The agreement, reached after secret talks brokered by Egypt, caught the Obama administration, like many others, by surprise. At a minimum it complicates the administration’s faltering hopes to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. It also casts doubt on American efforts in recent years to build up the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank, led by Fatah, as the legitimate leader of the Palestinians.

 It's amusing that the one even would think this is possible....

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Syrian silences

The reporting here, U.N. Security Council Rebuffs Push to Criticize Syria - NYTimes.com is more than slightly wrong-headed:

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR
Published: April 27, 2011

UNITED NATIONS — An attempt by the United States and its European allies to condemn Syria in the United Nations Security Council was rebuffed on Wednesday, as the willingness to intervene in the region — strong enough to lead to military action against Libya under similar circumstances just weeks ago — appeared to evaporate.

Emphasis added. No, it did not evaporate, it merely was tied to Libyan specificities, notably the fact that Qadhdhafi has few to no friends (and mostly paid supporters). The Assad regime has always been rather more clever and savvy than The Guide. Not an amazing benchmark one must admit, but a real difference. There was never any general willingness to intervene, in Libya it was always and continues to be a case of Qadhdhafi having left himself zero sympathy.

Of course additionally we should recall that the Assad regime, other than re Lebanon (which Syrian nationalists of all stripes have a hard time accepting as a real independent entity), behaves itself in re neighbours, and has for a while now.

On the flip side, Qadhdhafi neither behaves himself well, nor showed any signs of refraining (e.g. Tunisia) from mucking around to up-end results he did not like (the democratic revolutions, such as they are).
 

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Marrakech Bombing & Moroccan exceptions

It is a sad bit of ... coincidence, timing, that this occured AFP: Maroc: un attentat en plein Marrakech fait 14 morts (Fr: Marrakech bombing, 14 dead) as I was about to blog about the somewhat sympathetic article the Salafist opposition got in the NYT yesterday.

Reports now indicating that contra initial thinking this afternoon, it was indeed a terror attack:

Un autre source officielle, un haut responsable du ministère de l'Intérieur a confirmé le bilan de 14 morts et l'origine criminelle de l'explosion, ajoutant qu'une enquête avait été ouverte "pour déterminer les circonstances de cette explosion". Ce responsable avait dans un premier temps évoqué une cause "accidentelle", selon les premiers éléments dont il disposait.

Oddly,

The NYT ary: Moroccan King Opens Door for Change

“Nothing would be worse and more dangerous” than freed Salafi jihadists “without jobs and perspective, because then they might fall back to what they preached before,” a European intelligence official said on condition of anonymity. “Fizazi used to inspire young men to take actions against any countries which participated in the wars in Afghanistan or Iraq.”

I have serious doubts that most of those arrested - despite the complaints voiced in the article - in the aftermath of 2003 were in fact innocent. 

The timing of this, however, is nothing short of bizarre - although in the past weeks the Moroccan protests died down and seemed to be more and more limited to the political extremes, hard Left and Salafist extreme. But who besides the Al Qaeda fil Maghreb sympathisers would believe that a bombing now is going to advance their cause?

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April 18, 2011

NYT: Utter bollocks on US role in Arab uprisings

On the road at present, I ran into this article last week, in which the NYT makes the claim that U.S.-Financed Groups Had Supporting Role in Arab Uprisings something that I think is complete and utter bollocks. First, American democracy activist groups, financed by US Gov, have not been allowed in Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab '48 for literally decades. It is thus bizarre to go looking for American parentages to a phenomena that was and is entirely domestic. The article itself focuses on Egypt and Bahrain and an individual in Yemen... And to my read given what I have seen on the ground is a bunch of special pleading / spin by the "development community" to claim credit where little is due. I suppose in Egypt some tangential credit might be granted, but there seems little evidence of this:

But as American officials and others look back at the uprisings of the Arab Spring, they are seeing that the United States’ democracy-building campaigns played a bigger role in fomenting protests than was previously known, with key leaders of the movements having been trained by the Americans in campaigning, organizing through new media tools and monitoring elections.

Again, as the Tunisians took the lead, but did not "benefit" as such from this kind of American "assistance" I am quite dubious that training by Americans in campaigning, organizing or the like has any substantive impact. Of course Key Leaders is a fine weasel phrase that could be given almost any meaning.

I'd rather say the real article is more about how people like this:

“We didn’t fund them to start protests, but we did help support their development of skills and networking,” said Stephen McInerney, executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, a Washington-based advocacy and research group. “That training did play a role in what ultimately happened, but it was their revolution. We didn’t start it.”

Are trying to obtain post-facto credit for things that they in fact had fuck all to do with.
 
As for the article's emphasis on the various governments being sensitive to and  in fact hostile to American funding of political groups, well.... what bloody government on the planet including the US of A looks kindly on outside governments giving funding to political groups? Certainly not the US government, nor any W. European governments I can think of. I mean really it is pretty bloody simple.

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March 29, 2011

Observation from Tunisians re Libya

Briefly, heard the opinion from Tunisians, from cab drivers to bankers, that they were glad the French, British and Americans are supporting the rebellion because "If Qadhdhafi can, he will take his vengeance on us, for we set off this [changes] and he hates it."  Meanwhile the to and fro continue. Recent events rather indicate that until the Rebellion begins to create some disciplined forces, gains are illusionary.

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March 28, 2011

Libyan Progress, Syrian questions.

The quick turnaround may stifle some overdone gloom and doom, (Libya and Arab unrest – live blog | World news | guardian.co.uk) although of course just as gloom and doom was overdone, it would be

• Libyan rebels have pushed west towards Gaddafi's home city of Sirte. The revolutionary forces seized towns along Libya's coastal road towards the town after government forces fled western air strikes. A Libyan rebel spokesman said Sirte had been captured by the rebels on Monday morning, but this hasn't been independently verified.

• Rebel forces have taken a number of government-held oil towns including Brega, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad in the rapid push west along 150 miles of Libya's coastal road towards Sirte. There have been rumours that the outskirts of Gaddafi's home city have been mined.

Meanwhile, it is hard to make out what may occur in Syria. On one hand it would be excellent if the Baathist regime in Syria was shown the door, it's decades of incompetence really are enough. On the other hand, the region hardly needs yet another country to descend into chaos. Much fun this may present to the Polisci types that love whanking over such developments, for business this level of uncertainty, just not helpful. I hope that Assad el Ibn is clever and modern enough to somehow work a transition. The Baath party is rubbish, but the Alaouite minority could be in for some rough times if a revolution occurs.

On Lounsbury front, I am on a major bizdev mission for travel for several weeks, so posting may be irregular (if anyone ever finds me a ref to a bberry app that is compatible with this blog software, I may be willing to bribe them).

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Libyan Progress, Syrian questions.

The quick turnaround may stifle some overdone gloom and doom, (Libya and Arab unrest – live blog | World news | guardian.co.uk) although of course just as gloom and doom was overdone, it would be

• Libyan rebels have pushed west towards Gaddafi's home city of Sirte. The revolutionary forces seized towns along Libya's coastal road towards the town after government forces fled western air strikes. A Libyan rebel spokesman said Sirte had been captured by the rebels on Monday morning, but this hasn't been independently verified.

• Rebel forces have taken a number of government-held oil towns including Brega, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad in the rapid push west along 150 miles of Libya's coastal road towards Sirte. There have been rumours that the outskirts of Gaddafi's home city have been mined.

Meanwhile, it is hard to make out what may occur in Syria. On one hand it would be excellent if the Baathist regime in Syria was shown the door, it's decades of incompetence really are enough. On the other hand, the region hardly needs yet another country to descend into chaos. Much fun this may present to the Polisci types that love whanking over such developments, for business this level of uncertainty, just not helpful. I hope that Assad el Ibn is clever and modern enough to somehow work a transition. The Baath party is rubbish, but the Alaouite minority could be in for some rough times if a revolution occurs.

On Lounsbury front, I am on a major bizdev mission for travel for several weeks, so posting may be irregular (if anyone ever finds me a ref to a bberry app that is compatible with this blog software, I may be willing to bribe them).

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March 24, 2011

A wee oversight: sanctions cut rebels cash, access to arms

Now, one would have hoped that this would have been worked out, given past experience (from Libya crisis: live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk):

4.32pm: In his update to MPs, William Hague said Libya's National Oil Corporation would be subject to sanctions (12.46pm). The tightening of the economic noose on Gaddafi means the regime has been cut off from oil revenues. But economic sanctions will also hit the opposition, points out Samuel Ciszuk, a Middle East energy analyst with the IHS consultancy.

The state-owned NOC subsidiary, the Arabian Gulf Oil Co. (AGOCO), the upstream, midstream and downstream infrastructure of which the opposition largely controls, has been named as a sanctioned entity, making any near-time efforts to sell crude through the eastern oil port of Marsa El-Harigh for now, rather impossible. For the opposition movement, which cannot fall back on rumoured large gold reserves, this poses a significant immediate problem.

Additionally by all accounts they are also fully subject to the arms embargo. Well that's really very very precious. The Guide already has the stocks he likely needs, so sanctions are a bit of high-mindedness without much effect, and he's by all accounts got major cash reserves on hand. So, the main effect of sanctions in the near term would appear to be to hobble the Rebellion. Brilliant.

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Libya: American hand wringing, the Iraq Complex

I saw this on Kevin Drum's blog, Libya's Thousand-Man Rebellion | Mother Jones and left comment, reacting to:

A thousand men? If that's true, then there's virtually no chance of Qaddafi losing this war. For this and other reasons, Adam Garfinkle believes it's almost a certainty that the French and British will have to send in ground troops if they're genuinely committed to expelling Qaddafi, and this in turn could spell trouble for us:

So what happens if the French and British try but do not succeed in a reasonably expeditious way? What happens is about as obvious as it gets: not Suez happens. The Americans come and save the day, as they demurred from doing in October 1956. The French and British know in their heart of hearts that we cannot let them fail miserably at this, or that’s what they suppose. I suppose they’re right.

What this means is that the President may before very long be forced to make the most excruciating decision of his life: to send American soldiers into harm’s way to save the Western alliance—even from an operation that is not explicitly a NATO mission!—in a contingency that has no strategic rationale to begin with; or not, leaving the alliance in ruins and Qaddafi bursting with plans to exact revenge.

What's worse, even if Garfinkle is being unduly pessimistic and we manage to oust Qaddafi successfully, we still don't seem to have any idea whether the rebellious tribes are really any better for Libya or for us than the tribes currently aligned with Qaddafi. Helluva war we have going here.

Emphasis added.

My comment is quoted below as well, but I would preface it by two further remarks. First, Qadhdhafi already as early as the first declarations that he "had to go" by the West (before intervention, in the early days of the protests that mutated into rebellion), was already bursting with plans to exact revenge. Indeed, as my Tunisian colleague can confirm, there were credible reports that he had already begun to fuck with Tunisia by funding / supporting agentes provocateurs from the old regime, and saw Tunisia and Egypt as Western plots. I further note that one has to be extraordinarily ignorant to propose that there is an equivalence between the Rebellion and The Guide.

Regardless, as I lay out in my comment, the Libyan Eggs of Stability were already broken by the time Sarko forced intervention, pissing and moaning as if the choice was about some form of stability or intervention (as was the case in Iraq) is sheer idiocy. This without even counting the negative influence of the image of the West moaning about Qadhdhafi as he massacred the opposition, leaving the inevitable insurgency in the hands of the 'Told you so' Takfiris.

It is fine to argue against intervention, but advance alternatives to actual reality, do not piously pretend that Humpty Dumpty had not in fact fallen.... My comment then:

Continue reading "Libya: American hand wringing, the Iraq Complex"

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Useful thoughts on intervention: realism, not pessimism re Libya

This note in The Best Defense | FOREIGN POLICY is very useful and adult, given the hyperventilating "ohmygod we're in Iraq part II or Somalia"going on (and perhaps also useful also to the dismissive types that think that putting Western troops in is a great next step):

Everybody's going all wobbly over Libya, except those who never liked the idea in the first place. Tom's advice: Calm down. We have done what we set out to do in Libya. We kicked the door down, and with radars and SAM sites degraded, have made it possible for lesser air forces to patrol the skies over Qaddafi.

We should now say, OK, we have created the conditions, time for you all to have the courage of your convictions. The goal now for the United States, I think, is a negative one: To not be conducting a no-fly zone over Libya 5 years or even 5 months from now. If the French and Italians want to park the good ships Charles de Gaulle and Garibaldi off the Libyan coast, good. And if the Arab states want to maintain an air cap over Benghazi, fine. Step right up, fellas.

As for the American military, let's knock off the muttering in the ranks about clear goals and exit strategies. Fellas, you need to understand this is not a football game but a soccer match. For the last 10 years, our generals have talked about the need to become adaptable, to live with ambiguity. Well, this is it

Illustrative of the challenges, from yesterday's Libya crisis: live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

10.30am: Time magazine has a good piece on the difficulties - understandable enough - the rebels in Benghazi have in cobbling together an effective alternative government and fighting force at the same time.

"The big problem here is that most of the revolutionary guys don't trust the military people because a lot of military guys were with Gaddafi from the start," says Najla Elmangoush, a criminal-law professor at Benghazi's Garyounis University and an activist at council headquarters. "We welcomed them when they joined," she adds. "But people are concerned that maybe they'll try anytime to change sides." The regime is trying to encourage that fear, spreading false rumors last weekend that rebel commander Younis had returned to the regime's camp.

Emphasis added: very obviously this is something that the Guide has promoted from the get go (the distrust among parties) and something that is not easy to solve. On the other hand, Western advisors on the ground may be helpful in (i) hammering some sense into the activist types with their fuzzy beliefs, and (ii) helping act as a spine stiffening to discourage disintegration / side switching.

Also worthy of attention, this report
In Tripoli, Airstrike Damage and a More Outspoken Population - NYTimes.com which I note by the fact that officers in Tripoli were willing to hint at ... support to the Coalition airstrikes, is very indicative that while not entirely mercenary (as some would have it, lapping up the Rebellion propaganda) it is fragile. 

But Capt. Abdul Baset Ali, a Libyan naval officer, said no one had been injured or killed because the Libyan government had expected the attack and evacuated.

“Nobody was here because we knew this place may be targeted, so we went far away,” he said. Asked what the future holds for Libya, he said: “Nobody knows. We hope it will be good.”

One military officer, asking for anonymity so he could speak openly, said that he respected the Western goal of establishing a no-fly zone to protect Libyan civilians, but that the broad scope of the attacks risked creating a backlash. “This is not the way to shift out Qaddafi,” he said.

Though the airstrikes do not appear to have led to any new uprising against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi here, there was evidence that they had had a significant psychological impact. On an organized stroll through the old city with Qaddafi government minders, several Tripoli residents approached foreign journalists to offer their disdain or impatience with the Qaddafi government. Sometimes they spoke within just a few yards of a government representative.

Offered the bromide that it was a beautiful country, one man replied in perfect English, “It will be after we change the system.”

Emphasis added.

This is all the more reason to not engage either in magical thinking about the nature or capacity of the Rebellion, or in undue pessimism. A dash of realism and thus an ability to address the Rebellion's weaknesses (CLANDESTINLY forGov's sake I hope the governments suck up the negative press and keep things on the down low) can make this happen. In any case, one has to be equally realistic about the actual menu of choices, which do actually include Libya just slipping peacefully back into slumber under the chaos of the permanent revolution. Those eggs are broken.

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March 22, 2011

Non binaries: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War?

The NY Times poses this burning question: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War? - NYTimes.com Well, it's not an either or, now is it?

A bit unfair perhaps, but I find the answer to their question:

Is the battle for Libya the clash of a brutal dictator against a democratic opposition, or is it fundamentally a tribal civil war?

To be "Yes."

Or more shortly, it is clearly not just a tribal civil war, although it could evolve in that direction, but neither is the opposition abstract democrats. They oppose Qadhdhafi (an eminently sensible position regardless of one's politics). After that....

“It is a very important question that is terribly near impossible to answer,” said Paul Sullivan, a political scientist at Georgetown University who has studied Libya. “It could be a very big surprise when Qaddafi leaves and we find out who we are really dealing with.”

Well, I shouldn't think it is a surprise as such. One is dealing with a chaotic melange of people who hate Qadhdhafi, which as reflected in even the wider Arab public's response, is "pretty much anyone of any political flavour, excepting only those people directly supported and/or related to him."

Of course saying he only has mercenaries, as I have noted in passing on several occasions, is a wee bit too simple. His support is more fundamentally of a tribal logic.

Returning to the opposition, there are clearly some nasty people there, ex-regime figures who are not particularly wonderful folks, Islamists of a quasi-Takfiri inclination, etc.

I'd hazard the opinion that there are precious few liberal democratic types in Libya, so expecting a Liberal Democratic Revolution is the height of idiocy.

Nevertheless, insofar as Qadhdhafi unleashed hell in response to the demonstrations, and the Eggs of Stability are already broken, one has to move forward with that reality (this in contrast with the Iraq situation, where Bush ibn Bush willfully and with precious little understanding, started breaking eggs - an active choice).

The behavior of the fledgling rebel government in Benghazi so far offers few clues to the rebels’ true nature.

Errr, no. It offers lots of clues. First of which, they're not a unitary movement, second of which they don't have a "True Nature" in a unitary sense, and that this chaotic mix can go in a lot of different directions - probably bad directions but certainly bad directions if there is no countervailing influence.

Further to that, I find this sort of writing just strange (although after typing that I stopped to think, well, the Journo needs to convey that the heroic image of the freedom fighter and the credence given by many to the claims out of the Rebellion, needs, ahem, some nauncing):

Like the Qaddafi government, the operation around the rebel council is rife with family ties. And like the chiefs of the Libyan state news media, the rebels feel no loyalty to the truth in shaping their propaganda, claiming nonexistent battlefield victories, asserting they were still fighting in a key city days after it fell to Qaddafi forces, and making vastly inflated claims of his barbaric behavior.

Marhaben il Libya, bled al Jamahiriyah.

Let's just say that nothing about Libyan political culture over the past 50 years has built anything like objectivity into public discourse (if I may engage in moderate understatement).

As to the notes on violence, this is in fact a good thing to highlight:

In the neighborhoods of the capital that have staged major peaceful protests against Colonel Qaddafi, many have volunteered — speaking on the condition of anonymity — that their demonstrations were nonviolent mainly because they could not obtain weapons fast enough.

Even one religious leader associated with Sufism — a traditionally pacifist sect something like the Islamic equivalent of the Quakers — lamented his own tribe’s lack of guns for the fight.

That stands in sharp contrast to Libya’s neighbors, Tunisia and Egypt. In Egypt, in particular, the young leaders of the revolution were so seized with an ethic of nonviolence that in the middle of winning a battle of thrown stones against a loyalist mob, two young protesters said they believed they had lost, simply because they had resorted to violence.

Emphasis added.
Sufism is not a pacifist sect like the Quakers. It's not even a "sect" - it is an approach to worship, like Charismatics in Christianity.

I have no idea why Westerners can't get it fucking right re Sufism. It appears that pacifist quasi Quaker stuff sold by Indian Swamis in the 1960s can't be removed from English speaking consciousness.

Aside from that, the contrast with Tunisia and Egypt is correct: Egypt and Tunisia are relatively modernized societies, Tunisia more than Egypt, and

Of course expecting Non Violence to be a preferred methodology (this reminds me of Andrew Sullivan's idiocy a few days ago on this subject) in the face of The Guide, who rather obviously has few compunctions about violence, is more than a bit precious.

Continue reading "Non binaries: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War?"

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March 21, 2011

Yemen Civil War

Well, this is most unpleasant, Yemen showdown looms as army loyalties divide | World news | The Guardian

Yemen showdown looms as army loyalties divide

Defence minister vows to stand by president after 12 senior military commanders defect from regime

I was just watching this on Al Jazeerah. At first I thought he was announcing a coup.

"According to what I'm feeling, and according to the feelings of my partner commanders and soldiers … I announce our support and our peaceful backing to the youth revolution," Ali Mohsen said via a video statement released before noon.

Minutes after Ali Mohsen's defection, tanks belonging to the republican guards, an elite force led by the president's son Ahmed Ali, rolled into the streets of Sana'a, setting the stage for a standoff between defectors and loyalists.

Well, Yemen has fought civil wars before. 

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March 20, 2011

Clever very clever, the Guide: ceasefire for Civilian march from Tripoli to Benghazi....

Now this is a very clever move indeed (BBC News - Live: Libya crisis):

1901: The ceasefire was being ordered after taking into account the civilian deaths, and the destruction of civilian and military buildings, the Libyan government spokesman told reporters. He said all citizens were urged to participate in a peaceful march from Tripoli to Benghazi.

 Get some cameras on apparent civilians, broadcast, one has cover for movements... And a means to get Amr Moussa saying flagrantly hypocritical shite on TV. 

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The Fragile Arab support (Arab League condemns air strikes)

Keeping in mind my note (which referenced Don't exaggerate Arab support for Libya No Fly Zone | Marc Lynch), on cue, Amr Musa (who's a loathsome toad who blows in the wind..., but regardless) criticizes Western strikes on Libya

"What has happened in Libya differs from the goal of imposing a no-fly zone and what we want is the protection of civilians and not bombing other civilians," Arab League secretary general Amr Mussa told reporters.

On March 12, the Arab League urged the United Nations to impose a no-fly zone on Libya and said Moammar Gadhafi’s regime had "lost legitimacy" as it sought to snuff out a rebellion designed to oust him from power.

This is a bit of theatre on the part of Musa, but on the other hand should not be discounted as pure theatre. 

Further thoughts below:

Continue reading "The Fragile Arab support (Arab League condemns air strikes)"

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And Morocco, the quasi exception

As reported by RFI, The '20 Feb' movement is supposed to hold large demos for more change in Morocco today, w/o license.
 
Pushing ahead despite the Royal announcement of constitutional reforms. Overall, I don't see the Moroccan protest movement having the depth or breadth of support of either Egypt or Tunisia. In talking to people - middle class colleagues and friends - I heard a degree of scepticism with numbers giving credit to the position of the Government (as disseminated informally) that the Movement is being manipulated by " The Ikhouan" and indicating Moroccans should wait to see what the actual proposals on constitutional reform look like (although everyone seems agreed the PM has to go).  The manipulation line seems a bit much, although there isn't a doubt that the Moroccan salafist movement makes up a good part of the organized protest party, along the hard left.

I have rather a lot of work, but perhaps I can wander out and look around if I get tired of labouring through the weekend. My room isn't far from the major protest.

In any case, Morocco is lucky that the present king moved on relatively substantial (for the region) reform. Had he not broken in a very public and fairly substantial way with his father's practices, Morocco would have exploded. As it is, the 20 Feb movement has some utility in concentrating the minds of the Palace in Rabat on not listening to the arguments that it's time for a pause. The Royal system, if it undertakes a reasonable degree of democratisation as promised, such as boosting the parties and an elected PM, has a decent chance to come out of 2011 smelling like roses. But decent chance is not fait accompli.

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March 19, 2011

Libya Intervention Nuances

As a close to the evening, some nuances. Listneing to BBC I heard an American Lt. General - missed the name - engage in that very American military analysis of others characters, saying he did not expect Qadhdhafi to stick after more pressure, that he lacked the "good moral centre" and that he would "remove himself from Libya"... Queer analysis, that's what people seem to have been writing since this started. I can't say I had a sense from the US military types interviewed they really have gotten beyond a terribly colonial view of Arabs. I rather predict his predictions that this will be over in days, weeks "not months" will not prove out.

But regardless, in conversations with various MENA colleagues of mine, a nuance about support for this intervention. Now that there are actual planes in the air, a contradictory reaction has emerged in the conversations, the Qadhdhafi anti-colonial rhetoric echoes a bit. I think Mark Lynch is right - very right - to warn that in-region (and probably in-Libya) support for the intervention is thin and fragile.

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France over Benghazi.

Well, the French seem to have already put their money on the table, as Libya live blog (guardian.co.uk) reports French aircraft already patroling over Benghazi.
I hope the rebels don't accidentally soot at one.

4.35pm: I've just spoken to my colleague Chris McGreal in Benghazi where rebel forces have pushed back Gaddafi's forces from the city after intense fighting in which scores of civilians and fighters were killed.
...

He says there is a real wariness among the rebels that Gaddafi's forces were able to penetrate the city's defences and take over areas of what has been the main rebel stronghold in Libya since the uprising began.

Many residents also feel let down by the West because it delayed taking military action after the UN resolution was passed. They believe they will not be safe until Gaddafi is deposed or dead.

4.15pm: Here's a summary of events this afternoon

•Military action has begun against Libya, with French jets seen in the skies over Benghazi. Six Danish F-16s have arrived at the US air base at Sigonella, Sicily on Saturday and will be ready for operation Sunday. Canada has committed six CF-18 jets,and Canadian aircraft landed at the Prestwick Airport south-west of Glasgow, Scotland to refuel.

It's begun. The Benghazi residents shouldn't feel let down, in fact they're damned lucky people are betting on them. Now they have to get their acts together.

BBC: BBC News - Live: Libya crisis

1748: French aircraft have destroyed four Libyan tanks in air strikes to the south-west of Benghazi, Al-Jazeera television has reported.

This may stop Benghazi, but.... unless the rebels get organized, the Guide can always swing around and outflank (or enter into city and allow confusion to give them cover - both sides same equip...)

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Fighting in Benghazi (Guide's super special 'cease fire')

First, on the SATs it appears foreign embassies are being seized in Tripoli if the banderole is right.

Second, someone in comments naively asked about the cease fire, As the Guardian Libya live blog (guardian.co.uk) it had as much content as I thought. That is none:

12.25pm: This video shows the rebels' only fighter jet being downed over the Libyan city of Benghazi on Saturday, [video shows actual hit on fighter] and shelling of the rebel-held Misurata by Gaddafi's forces, despite the announcement of a ceasefire.

12.10pm: Al Jazeera TV has broadcast images of rebel tanks in the streets of Benghazi waving the flag of the revolution after Gaddafi forces pulled back.

The news channel earlier reported that the cease fire announced by Gaddafi's regime was never mentioned on national television and appears to have only been aimed at the international media and governments.

A closer up video shown on France 24 makes me thing it was a Mig 29, but that video was after the missile hit so bit hard to tell. However, on the Guardian blog they write that it was possibly a mirage.

"Rebels telling us they think the plane shot down was a rebel plane - fog of war. we only saw one. No-one able to ID it. Consensus was that it wasn't a mig - possibly a mirage."

Very clearly Qadhdhafi is going for broke (and why not? If I were him I would).

Benghazi seems to be holding against a full-out mixed-forces assault. 

Odd that he went for Benghazi, I would have thought Tobruk to cut supply lines (although perhaps as we speak) but perhaps the logistics were not there.

Further sinister developments, from the Guardian Libya live blog

12.04pm: The pro-Gaddafi state-run Jana news agency has reported that crowds of Libyans are converging on targets which France is expected to attack. This raises concern that Gaddafi could use civilians as human shields around military targets

However, very interesting re Paris emergency summit(Libya live blog) 

11.50am: Morocco, Qatar, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates are the Arab nations attending the emergency summit on Libya in Paris, AFP reports.

I wonder what the Moroccan position will be. There are still numbers of citizens in Morocco, but on the other hand I have it on good authority that the King and his close advisors absolutely loathe Qadhdhafi (not only for W. Sahara "ingerance" but also for personal insults and sleights, not all of which have been public - The Guide clearly has had a complex about 'the old families')

Otherwise, I close with this amusing denial:

• Loud explosions have been heard in the opposition stronghold, with those on the ground saying government forces have been shelling the rebels. Rebels said they had been forced to pull back as Libyan jets bombed the road to Benghazi airport and the city's outskirts.

• In response the Libyan regime has denied any involvement, saying its entire air force has been grounded and it is respecting its self-imposed ceasefire.

Qadhdhafi is of course not merely stupidly lying, he is playing a good game of sowing chaos and doubt, which are his best cards.

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Open Thread for comment on Syria, Bahrain etc

I have major work to do, the explosion of the region may be amusing to people far away, but me, it is a huge toothache. I note that the Arab Sats are carrying video from Syria on Friday suggesting now Syria was started the same road as Egypt, Yemen, etc., including major demos in cities considering regime strongholds. This is indeed the MENA 1848...

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March 18, 2011

Now this is just odd (Bahrain tears down Pearl Roundabout monument)

Bahrain Tears Down Monument (NYTimes.com)

Bahrain tore down the monument at the center of the Pearl Roundabout, the focal point and symbolic heart of weeks of pro-democracy protests in the Gulf island kingdom.

Errrr. That thing's been there for years, what's the point of tearing it down now? It's been "violated" ?

The Al Khalifa are a right goofy bunch.

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Guide's countermove: Well-played so far

Apparently someone in Guidedom is reading the fine print of the Security Council "much more than No Fly" resolution, and realized that just about any assertion of force by the Qadhdhafoids could invite a full scale external counterattack and arming of the Benghazi countergovernment of Libya. Calling a ceasefire may neutralize that immediate threat while holding a superior position.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:25 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

Text of Security Council Resolution on Libya: License to Kill the Qadhdhafi Regime?

Louns ETA: [Moving this up as it deserves review and reflexion]
Marty McFly fled armed Libyans in Back to the Future but in this time period and real world a martial no-fly zone -- or something far larger, even an authorization to aerially and materially assist in a war to unseat Qadhdhafi -- has been declared by the UN Security Council (SC 1973). Text of resolution follows below some initial commentary.

Continue reading "Text of Security Council Resolution on Libya: License to Kill the Qadhdhafi Regime?"

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Sullivan bis: Delerium & Fantasy re Libya & impact "Arab 48"

ETA: The LibGov has declared a ceasefire (via the ForMin), but I rather suspect this is a delaying action and not real on the ground (reports seem to indicate that indeed combat continues). Probable intention is to have a pause (likely needed in the East to bring up logistics), use rebels ongoing pushback as excuse to resume.

Really should combine, but off to meeting, so   Andrew Sullivan

That seems to me to be a minimal requirement for such a drastic and risky action. The Congress must have a debate and vote on this. It's hard to express how disappointed I am not just by the administration's decision but by the president's refusal even to explain a third war to the American people. And he's now off to Brazil ...? Is he kidding?

This from a fellow who full-throatedly backed the Iraq war. Insofar as I can tell the US has merely voted support for the UN resolution (and never mind how comical it would be to bring the Congress to debate in the closing hours of Benghazi over the theatre of the No Fly). Really, Sullivan is over compensating for his idiocy over the Iraq war, with deeper stupidity about the No Fly.

The most important part of the UN vote last night was no the actual No Fly (although France resuming its old war with Qadhdhafi has an interesting side to it), but the effect of stiffening the spines of the Rebellion. Morale effect. And worth an effort.

Unless of course Sullivan and the others can advance a scenario where Libya reconquered by Qadhdhafi, but awash in weapons 'liberated' from Government depots and filled with embittered rebels does not turn into a Chechnya or an Algeria c. 1993 (except next to Tunisia and Egypt, themselves struggling to establish stability) with the rebels turning to the hard-core Takfiri Jihad wing as their point of reference....

Continue reading "Sullivan bis: Delerium & Fantasy re Libya & impact "Arab 48""

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March 16, 2011

Egypt Off the Old Block: Army Torture Alleged

Assuming this account to be true or substantially so, it appears that the military core of the regime either is, or has elements that are, pushing back hard after the removal of Fearless Leader.

Continue reading "Egypt Off the Old Block: Army Torture Alleged"

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March 15, 2011

Saudi soldier shot (Bahrain)

This is worrisome. More than Yemen, due to Shia angle and due to proximity to major producing fields "Libya and Middle East unrest - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

• Bahrain has declared a state of emergency. A Saudi soldier has been shot by a protester in Bahrain. A 1,000-strong force from Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council arrived in Bahrain yesterday.

I have had quite enough interesting events.  

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March 14, 2011

The Full Q. Rebound, & Support

Although I have been a sceptic of No Fly, I have to say time is coming to abandon that. The Guide is increasingly getting more effective use out of his airforce it appears (perhaps the pilots beginning to think that he's going to last after all) and the Rebellion is in real danger now, as this note from the  guardian.co.uk show, although the caveats as to real impact remain.

11.26am: The issue of a no-fly zone is all the more pressing given that Gaddafi's air force is continuing to raid rebel positions. According to rebel groups, war planes attacked weapons stores today near the eastern city of Ajdabiya.

France and the UK are seen as the main proponents of a no-fly zone within the G8 group of major industrialised nations, which also comprises the US, Russia, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada. Russia, one of the big players if a proposal is to be put before the UN security council, apparently remains to be convinced. The country's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said this morning that he wanted more information about how such a zone would work. Russia would "closely study" any proposal put before the security council, he added.

I've come to the conclusion that it is better to try and fail than not to try, as the impact on the Western image chez the Libyans - and the potential gains for the Jihadis - is large (negative and positive respectively).

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Oh bloody hell: 1000 Saudi troops to Bahrain

This is not going to do nice things to oil pricing, not nice things at all: Libya and Middle East uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

2.22pm: More on Bahrain. This just in from Reuters:

About 1,000 Saudi soldiers entered Bahrain early on Monday to protect government facilities following recent unrest by the country's Shia Muslim majority, a Saudi official source said.
"About 1,000 Saudi soldiers have entered Bahrain early on Monday morning through the causeway to Bahrain," the source told Reuters. "They are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) force that would guard the government installations".

Nor does Bahrain's "moderate future"  look bright. Perhaps Qatar would like to build a brand spanking new naval city?

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March 11, 2011

No Fly & the Full Qadhdhafi

ETA prefix:
This could be the opening needed for support to the Rebellion, let us hope that Arab League shows more spine than it has ever before in its existence (helped along by the fact that none of them have ever liked the Guide):Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

3.59pm: 3.57pm: The Arab League is apparently set to back a no-fly zone over Libya, according to Reuters, who quote the Hungarian foreign minister, Janos Martonyi.

"The most important thing is that the Arab League agrees with [it]," he said.
"The expectation is that they will support [the] no-fly zone under some conditions."

First, it rather appears that Qadhdhafi has launched a fullish military campaign now:

Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

2.59pm: More details and colour from Reuters:

The sound of explosions and small arms fire came from Ras Lanuf on Friday as government troops landed from the sea backed by tanks and air power fought to recapture the oil port town.
A large column of black smoke billowed from storage tanks at an oil installation, television pictures showed, after what Arab channels said was a series of government air strikes.

2.56pm: An update on the fighting in Ras Lanuf. A look at this map helps put things in context

(AP) The rebels appeared to have a tenacious hold around the oil facilities at Ras Lanuf, taking refuge among the towering storage containers of crude oil and gas. Government forces stopped directing their fire at those positions, apparently to avoid blowing up the facility's infrastructure, according to fighters.
Instead, the pro-Gaddafi troops, positioned in Ras Lanuf's residential about 10 miles (16 kilometers) east of the oil port across a barren desert no man's land, were raining rockets and shelling along the main coastal highway, targeting rebel vehicles trying to reinforce and bring supplies to the port, said Mohammed Gherani, a rebel fighter.
The bodies of at least three opposition fighters killed in the shelling were brought to rebel-held Brega, a larger oil port to the west, bringing the toll from two days of battles at Ras Lanouf to at least nine.

There is a real chance Qadhdhafi can entirely reverse his losses in the west, not clear to me regarding the East, fundamentally more hostile to him as it is. Nevertheless, as my earlier notes indicated, the Rebellion must rapidly get more organised and serious or they are in deep trouble. This may also make them more open to foreign support, but unless they are more organised, foreign support isn't going to do much (although there is probably a synergestic relationship between potential for foreign support and getting organised, as else a reverse of the abandoning of the regime is as likely to emerge as not).

It's worth highlighting the disorganisation:Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

2.05pm: AP offers a fascinating profile of the rebels fighting for Ras Lanuf and hoping to work their way to Tripoli:

"The front-line force … is surprisingly small. Not counting supporters who bolster them in the towns along their path, it is estimated at 1,500 at most Libyans from all walks of life, from students and coffee-shop owners to businessmen who picked up whatever weapons they could and joined the fight. No one seems to know their full size, and they could be picking up new members all the time …

"The rebel force is a leaderless collection of volunteers, operating in an evolving collaboration with soldiers who deserted various units over the past month and are still be trying to organise themselves. It's not clear who, if anyone is giving orders …

"The volunteer militiamen largely have been acting and reacting as a pack to government assaults, launching initiatives wherever they can. They ride around in dozens of pick-up trucks, some with machine guns and anti-aircraft guns strapped to the back. Some rebels have weapons, while others seem hardly able to operate a gun …

"Many of the fighters come from Benghazi, the main city in the rebel-controlled eastern half of the country. They are united by hatred for Gaddafi and a burning desire to overthrow him and establish a state under the rule of law."

Romantic gallantry, but leaderless 'flash-mob,' cell-phone organised cluelessness with AKs in the face of a real army is going to go down in bloody failure. It is not possible to help this mob unless they get themselves organised, and fast.

(Edited to add additional item from Fareed Zakaria's The Libyan Conundrum - TIME

Continue reading "No Fly & the Full Qadhdhafi"

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March 10, 2011

Franco British demarche for intervention

This may actually lead somewhere, and given the signs that the Rebellion could be in for serious reversals, comes at a good moment, as the anti-intervention feelings in the Rebellion will likely be seriously cooled.

From guardian.co.uk

Continue reading "Franco British demarche for intervention"

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Royal Moroccan Reforms

I actually caught this on the Sats last night. Have to say M6 looked unhealthy, but a decent enough speech all in all, one does come to appreciate his relative brevity and focus after the blowhard performances of the Ben Ali, Mubarek and the like. It's also a nice reflexion on focus (it isn't a Royal habit to be making lots of speeches, saves it up for when it counts)

Some thoughts: First, from my POV, proof is in the implementation pudding, but at least the high-level declarations re constitutional change in implementing an elected rather than royally appointed PM seem helpful. A selection of items from the wires
Moroccan king pledges reforms as neighbors battle uprisings - CNN.com

The Moroccan king has pledged sweeping constitutional reforms as neighboring nations face violent uprisings demanding more democracy.

In a rare television appearance on Wednesday, King Mohamed VI said the reforms would include a prime minister elected from the party that wins the most seats in parliament.

The prime minister will "be the head of an effective executive branch, who is fully responsible for government, civil service and the implementation of the government's agenda," the king said.

Reforms will also promote human rights and gender equality, and improve the economic, social and cultural aspects, according to the king.

He highlighted seven key elements of his constitutional amendments. They include expanded collective and individual freedoms, an elevated judiciary, a stronger emphasis on democracy and a parliament drawn from free and fair elections.

It's worth noting that M6 had promised (and in fact followed through) to appoint the last PM on the basis of the elections. Unfortun. that person turned out to be a total dud (even allowing for the limited margin of maneuver he had).

Judicial independence, if effective, would be a very useful development. The free and fair elections, I am rather more doubtful on, but one has to start working on political culture some time, so...

In any case, Morocco is relatively ahead of the curve as compared with the Neighbourhood.

Continue reading "Royal Moroccan Reforms"

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French recog of Benghazi Nat Council as legit gov

France gets out ahead, and recognises the National Council as the legit Gov: Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

10.12am: France has just become the first major European power to recognise the Libyan national council in Benghazi as the legitimate representative of Libyan people.

France is to open an embassy in Benghazi and will allow the Libyan embassy in Paris to reopen.

This will be welcomed by the Libyan council, which has been pushing for such recognition.

This is riskier than it looks as it is not by far a sure thing this council will come out on top, either internally to the rebels (although if they prevail, more likely) or vis-a-vis The Guide.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:33 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

March 09, 2011

Returning to the African connexion

Some notes highlighting the relevance of my earlier obs in re Libyan racism (although not unfounded in re paranoia re mercenaries) & worries.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1246: UNHCR says that a team at the Egypt border on Monday interviewed a group of Sudanese who arrived from eastern Libya who said that armed Libyans were going door to door, forcing sub-Saharan Africans to leave. In one instance a 12-year-old Sudanese girl was said to have been raped. They reported that many people had their documents confiscated or destroyed. The agency says it heard similar accounts from a group of Chadians who fled Benghazi, al-Bayda and Brega in the past few days.

 

 

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March 05, 2011

"Trusting someone is the first step to being defeated": Egyptians storm security HQs

Person's account of storming of state security offices in Alexandria. BBC tells of similar activity in Cairo. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12657464

Continue reading ""Trusting someone is the first step to being defeated": Egyptians storm security HQs"

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March 04, 2011

Egypt & Sectarian Violence: The Deep Security State

First, Kudos to Reason for picking this up, since it is otherwise being ignored. The Muslim extremist narrative is a fun and simple one. It gets nastier, however. Knowing Egypt, I give much credence to the accusations that - vaguely similar to apparently well-founded accusations in Algeria that a portion [not all, a portion, 25%? More? Less No one will ever know] of 'religious' violence is linked to manipulation of the security state:

Was the Mubarak Regime Complicit in Egypt's Sectarian Violence? - Hit & Run : Reason Magazine

The last year of the Hosni Mubarak regime was, according to The New York Times, "the bloodiest year in four decades of sectarian tensions in Egypt." Bookended by two attacks on Coptic churches in a country with a sizeable Christian minority, the year of bloodshed reinforced the idea that only a strongman could prevent Islamic fundamentalism from overrunning the Arab world's largest country.

But shortly before the Egyptian military moved against the Mubarak regime, Al Arabiya television reported allegations that the Egyptian government, not content with fighting actual Islamists, may have invented some of its own enemies. An official government probe is looking into reports that the New Year's Eve church bombing in Alexandria, initially blamed on Al-Qaeda, might actually have been perpetrated by the Egyptian government, with the intention of gaining sympathy and support from the West. The Saudi-backed TV station—founded as a moderate alternative to Al Jazeera, and host to Barack Obama's first formal interview as president in January 2009—also reported that British diplomats believe Egyptian Interior Minister Habib el-Adly had a whole department dedicated to these sorts of operations:

Emphasis added.

First, on the Italics emphasis: Founded as a moderate alternative!!?!? Reason write lapped up propaganda here. Rather founded out of Saudi annoyance at Jazeera criticism of themselves.

Second, the Interior Ministry accusation I can credit - of course that does not mean that all religious violence, discrimination against Copts and the like is due to Interior. Rather it suggests Interior probably exploited a real problem for its own agenda. I have long viewed, however, such violence and tension in Egypt as a symptom rather than a fundamental. Diminishing space, economic opportunity and a critical sense of desperation and fighitng over crumbs are the fundamental drivers.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:08 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 03, 2011

On No fly & modest proposals

A good call for a second think on the easy thinking about No Fly Six considerations for discussing the imposition of a Libyan no-fly zone - By Tom Ricks | The Best Defense

6. No, the Iraqi no-fly zones are not a good precedent to cite. I actually went out and looked at the operation of the northern no-fly zone in October of 2000. I came away thinking that one reason that no American aircraft were shot down in the Iraqi no-fly zones was because Saddam Hussein really did not want to-that is, he did not want to provoke America. The anti-aircraft shots that were taken were wide on purpose. A better parallel might be Serbia, which (aided by a smart Hungarian national who now is a baker) managed to down an F-117 stealth fighter aircraft in March 1999 with an SA-3 anti-aircraft missile.

Very evidently, contra Sadaam, The Guide has nothing to lose in using everything in his AA arsenal against any aircraf interdicting his movements.

A rather better solution would be to buy Russian (or better Ukranian sourced) anti-aircraft man portable missiles, and clandestinely support the Benghazi based opposition. Done properly it has all the potential of plausible deniability, keeps things in Libyan hands to prevent any Rally Round the Flag effect for The Guide, and cheap man portable SAMs would rather quickly put a dent in the use of aircraft against the opposition.

Of course there is a problem of potential leakage to terrorists.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:15 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

With Dutch In Dutch, It Takes on A New Color

This is where the whiny lefties have a point. On the report of captured Dutch Marines in Libya, an AOL contributor writes: "This is the first known case of Gadhafi's fighters capturing and holding foreigners during the recent unrest in Libya."

Continue reading "With Dutch In Dutch, It Takes on A New Color"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:36 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Tunisia & the deep security state

An interesting article and point of reflexion for Tunisia, and the ongonig problems there. I continue to disagree with Shaheen re Ghannouchi, I think the problems are at another level, an operational level. This article hints at deeper level, and underscores my sense that changing the top faces is not the proper response.

FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Tense Tunisia strives for stability

But the credibility of this process is in danger of being undermined by unrest that some observers say is being organised, and funded, by members of Mr Ben Ali’s security forces, possibly acting for those with financial interests at risk. Despite the replacement of many departmental heads in the interior ministry, the politicians have failed to gain full control of the security services.

Mr Ghannouchi had been prime minister since 1999, remaining in office even after the uprising. Despite his attempts to reinvent himself as a convert to the revolution, and his reputation as someone who had not personally enriched himself, his association with Mr Ben Ali’s government had become a sticking point for demonstrators on the streets. ....

.... In two incidents last weekend, Hana Trabelsi and Sofiane Chourabi, two blogger journalists, were assaulted by plainclothes policemen while covering protests in Tunis. Such attacks on journalists, a fact of life under the previous regime, had been thought a thing of the past.

Security service personnel are still warning ministers against visiting the provinces, complains one senior politician, speaking off the record. “They say they can’t guarantee ministers’ security there. But if we went there, it would be they who would organise some aggression against us.”

The last comment is at once chilling and probably true.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:07 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

March 02, 2011

Dating software for revolutionary consquences

Should this be confirmed, it is very bloody clever: Dating Site Is the New Hotspot for Libyan Protest | Danger Room | Wired.com

Continue reading "Dating software for revolutionary consquences"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Libyan African migrants, between a rock and the Guide

UPDATE 2-Tragedy in Libyan desert as poor migrants flee | News by Country | Reuters

Continue reading "Libyan African migrants, between a rock and the Guide"

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Libya, Burning Libya encore

First, a useful note from BBC BBC News - Libya: Who is propping up Gaddafi?
Subtitled,

Col Muammar Gaddafi's regime is showing signs of fighting back.

Showing signs... an understatement. But useful overview of his side actors.

Economist Clauswitz blog has very useful notes,

Continue reading "Libya, Burning Libya encore"

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Corvée noire: Guide's 'Mercenaries'

This is not surprising behaviour from The Guide

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1627: The BBC's Hausa service has spoken to Niger nationals fleeing Libya. They said there are widespread reports of people from sub-saharan Africa being arrested.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1632: Disturbingly, the Niger nationals said those people arrested are being made to choose between joining Col Gaddafi's army or being killed.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1537: People from Niger who have fled Libya tell BBC Hausa that there have been widespread arrests of sub-Saharan Africans. They say they are being forced to either join Col Gaddafi's forces or be killed.

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Libya, cautionary notes re Qaddafi 'irrationality'

This note from NY Times is quite good (and sums up similar evals I have been seeing): Even a Weakened Qaddafi May Be Hard to Dislodge - NYTimes.com

Although it is fun to call The Guide a mad man and mock his sanity, it's important not to miss the signs that for all his flamboyance and eccentricity, he is neither stupid nor per se delusional (i.e. à la Hitler moving imaginary units as reported re his behaviour behind closed doors). Talking up things grandiosely in public should not be confused with private, behind doors behaviour:

But Colonel Qaddafi retains significant strength, Mr. Joshi said. He is thought to still control the air force, though some elements have defected. And while there have been clashes in Tripoli, with sniper and small-arms fire in areas of the capital, “it is not a war zone and not a city in rebellion,” he said.

While the colonel is thought to be delusional, he and his commanders have proved capable so far of using their forces with some care, Mr. Joshi said. “There have been no large massacres, air power is being used in a calculated way and he is launching probing attacks” while “making constant efforts in the suburbs of Tripoli to check small gestures of dissent.”

The struggle in Libya “could go on a long time,” Mr. Joshi said. “Tripoli is not a bunker. And this is not the decision-making of a man totally out of touch with reality.”

Emphasis added.
I have certainly already given my estimation to the people who pay me very good money for such that planning should be for months of fighting, i.e. no quick reprise of economic (business) activity.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:17 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Returning to Tunisia, and continued resignations

As my differing evaluations of Tunisia and Egypt have been questioned in comments, some further Tunisia reflexions. First, it is my judgement that the Tunisian events were fundamentally more "real" than Egypt - in Egypt the Army has long been the power behind the throne and is intimately involved in the operations of the Mubarek system and the economy. This was not at all the case in Tunisia. Quite the contrary. In Egypt, the military moving Mubarek out of the way was the same power changing masks. In Tunisia, the army is, to an extent, a wild card actor. Second, whereas in Egypt I see basically same system just changing its mask, in Tunisia, I see a groping towards something new - from the get go, The Tunisian interim Gov had real opposition members in it, whose places have gradually expanded. That has been a good thing, however it is my judgement now that the protesting parties are trending towards "maximalism" to a destabilising extent. Not every RCD & Ben Ali collaborator was a bad fellow, and at this time, it is as - perhaps more - important to focus on preparations for elections, rather than pushing for changing faces on what is in fact an interim government that must be changed in mere months anyway. Pushing for more face changes takes energy away from badly needed other activites - inside the Gov and outside the Gov.

Now, more resignations and illustration of my concerns, 4 senior government figures in 4 days:

Continue reading "Returning to Tunisia, and continued resignations"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:27 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

On Transitions, an Asian reflexion

A very interesting note, Lessons for the Mideast from Asia's Revolutions - Council on Foreign Relations that has some interesting points of reflection:

Continue reading "On Transitions, an Asian reflexion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 01, 2011

Is Egypt's military turning against the revolution

An extremely silly question.

Is Egypt's Military Turning Against the Revolution? - Eric Trager - International - The Atlantic

Is Egypt's Military Turning Against the Revolution?

Of course not. They were never with it. 

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February 28, 2011

Libyan Berbers Revolt

Not in any way surprising, given Qadhdhafi's repression of Berbers: Libya's Berbers join the revolution in fight to reclaim ancient identity | World news | The Guardian

Libya's Berbers join the revolution in fight to reclaim ancient identity

Mountain tribes in the west, also called Amazigh, unite with opposition after decades of Gaddafi repressing their identity

Qadhdhafi's senseless repression of Berbers always has puzzled me, however. 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:00 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

Tunisia, more resignations

Well, I hope this will calm spirits. Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

2.20pm - Tunisia: The Tunisian industry and technology minister has resigned from the government, according to the official TAP news agency.
Mohamed Afif Chelbi was one of only two remaining ministers who served in the cabinet under the ousted president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. His exit comes in the wake of yesterday's resignation of the prime minister, Mohamed Ghannouchi, who held the same post under Ben Ali.
Ghannouchi quit after renewed violent demonstrations in the country by protesters angry about ties of members of the post-revolution government to the old regime.

Unike Shaheen I don't think Ghannouchi was per se a bad fellow to be there, but damaged goods is damaged goods. If this allows movement forward, fine. But I worry that the hot-headed instant results oriented people will continue to push, at the expense of building more durable efforts, politics. In any case, in light of the events in Egypt, and especially in Libya, the Ghannouchi types come off looking comparatively good re mature politics.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 27, 2011

French FM resigns over Tunisia

This was long overdue, she was really flagrantly incompetent in handling the crises in Maghreb:
Pressure mounts on Gaddafi - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

5.04pm: The French foreign minister, Michele Alliot-Marie, has resigned after mishandling the crisis in Tunisia. "I ask you to accept my resignation," Alliot-Marie wrote in the letter, a copy of which was seen by Reuters. President Nicolas Sarkozy, due to make a televised address later today, is expected to replace her with the defence minister, Alain Juppe, a veteran conservative who served as prime minister and foreign minister in the 1990s.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Guide Libyan Mercenaries Profile

A very useful and insightful article from The Telegraph, it confirms Qadhdhafi did in fact bring in mercenaries from Chad, although given the story told by a young one, it is reasonable to presume there were bait & switch going on:

African mercenaries in Libya nervously await their fate - Telegraph

African mercenaries in Libya nervously await their fate
Mercenaries captured in Libya are facing an uncertain future, writes Nick Meo in Al-Bayda.

Nevertheless, as the article notes there are elements still out there, the return to stability after The Guide is killed - that seems certain - is a far from certain thing.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:45 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Tunisian PM resigns, more protest deaths

While I am not per se favourable to Ghannouchi, I am worried by

Police Break Up Demonstrations in Tunis | Africa | English

Tunisia's interim Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi has announced his resignation, saying he hopes it will "help his successor work to solve the country's problems." The resignation was announced as police clashed with protesters, a day after three people were killed in anti-government protests.

While the desire to "cleanse" the government of anyone associated with Ben Ali is an understandable one, it is not - as Iraq showed - necessarily a good one in the short term. The technocrats with a mastery of issues, etc. are needed to help transition things, and further if all the people associated with Ben Ali are unceremoniously excluded, the options of destabilisation begins to look better for them.

Most of the issues Tunisia faces are ones needing long-term effort, removing faces is not going to create jobs, solve corruption nor allow policy stability to get the economy restarted. NOR will it allow the opposition to build proper political networks.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:56 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 26, 2011

Africans & Libya, Mercenaries

An interesting comment to highlight

Live Blog - Libya Feb 26 | Al Jazeera Blogs

7:05pm

AJE correspondent reports that anti-government protesters have attacked black Africans in Libya, taking them for mercenaries.

Seidou Boubaker Jallou and his friend, both from Mali, fled for their lives by night to the Tunisian border. They said the roads out of the West are still in the hands of those loyal to Gaddafi. Jallou says:

The situation is very dangerous - every day there are more than a hundred who die - every day - every day there are shootings - the most dangerous situation is for foreigners like us - and also us black people - Because Gaddafi brought soldiers from Chad from Niger - they are black and they are killing Arabs.

Certainly if you're a Chadian exile from the Libyan-Chad wars days, and you're fighting for The Guide, you probably are going to stick it, since otherwise you're toast (and not welcome at home either).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Tunisia, Protesting Disease

Libya in crisis – live coverage | World news | guardian.co.uk

I'm growing concerned that the Tunisian case can go seriously sideways. I fail to see how bringing down Ghannouchi helps. Now is the time to monitor and to prepare. Changing faces in an interim regime does not solve much. Organising proper parties, political networks. Change forced by demonstration is only a good thing as a very extraordinary measure.

Three people have been killed in clashes between Tunisian security forces and youths rioting in central Tunis, an interior ministry official told Reuters.

The official, who declined to be named, said another 12 had been injured in the clashes, which he said occurred after a riot orchestrated by loyalists of ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. He said about 100 people had been arrested.

"Those who were arrested have admitted they were pushed by former Ben Ali officials," he said. "Others said they were paid to do it."

A Reuters witness had earlier seen Tunisian soldiers fire into the air and use tear gas in an effort to disperse dozens of youths, many carrying sticks, who were breaking shop windows near Tunis's Barcelona Station

The claims of Ben Ali agents provocateurs can't be dismissed out of hand, but is a bit pat.

More from French sources, which give more detail and suggest perhaps by timing and behaviour that the agent provacteur thesis is not unfounded - but could as well suggest that the slum hooligan profile exploiting the situation:

Continue reading "Tunisia, Protesting Disease"

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February 25, 2011

Tunisia, Don't forget Tunisia.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Don't Forget Tunisia
25 Feb 2011 05:19 pm

J. Scott Carpenter says it is "going to need help from the international community - and a lot of it":

If Tunisia doesn't succeed, no other country in the region can. Tunisia's 10 million inhabitants do not suffer the ethnic and sectarian divisions that bedevil many of their neighbors. Tunisians are well educated and largely middle class -- 80 percent own their own homes. Nearly all Tunisians practice the same form of moderate Islam. The populace looks to Europe for its economic and political inspiration. The cry Tunisians made famous around the world during their revolution, "Dégage!" (Get out!), is tellingly in French, not Arabic.

The underlying article is good, but the emphasized parts are annoying. Just because someone speaks French or English well doesn't mean moderation. Tedious condensation that (doubtless the writer, a former State person, was a francophone). Same re "moderate Islam" - I understand why it has to be said in these articles but really it gets tiresome.

Let me suggest an alternative, "the ordinary, non-extremist Islam of most of the Islamic world..." - excepting the seriously retarded places, (AfPak, Gulf).

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:12 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Egypt: Surprise Surprise, plus ça change...

As the French saying goes, "plus ça change..."

Gaddafi defiant amid Libya turmoil – live | World news | guardian.co.uk

9pm GMT: The Guardian's Jack Shenker reports from Cairo on another massive demonstration there and increased unease at the country's military rulers:

Jack Shenker

After a major rally in Tahrir Square to mark the one-month anniversary of the 25 January protests that launched Egypt's revolution, several hundred demonstrators are now camping outside parliament in an effort to force out Ahmed Shafiq, an old member of the Mubarak-era cabinet who has improbably clung on to the post of prime minister in the aftermath of Mubarak's departure.

General public frustration towards the remnants of the Mubarak regime - and the ruling Supreme Military Council's apparent unwillingness to remove them - is beginning to crystallise, and Shafiq is the most visible target.

Earlier this evening there were clashes outside the parliament building between protesters and the army, and stories of activists being tortured at the hands of military police are circulating.

Although many have been suspicious of the armed forces' intentions from the moment Mubarak stepped down, today marks a real escalation in the strength of public sentiment against the way Egypt's "transition period" is being handled by the generals, whom many want to see pushed aside in favour of a civilian cabinet.

"The army is acting with the same unaccountable violence against civilians as the police force did," warned one activist on Twitter.

Emphasis added.
It is dawning on the protesters / opposition that the departure of Mubarek was more a sleight of hand by the system than an actual change.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:21 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

More Libya, burning Libya

Further items on Libya:
Live Blog - Libya Feb 25 | Al Jazeera Blogs

6: 25pm Serbia denied media reports on Friday that its pilots or ground crews had been involved in Libyan air force bombing missions against protesters, adding that it was suspending all its arms exports to the country. The Serbian Defence Ministry were responding to reports in Arab and Maltese media that Serb mercenary pilots took part in bombing runs against protesters in the Libyancities of Tripoli and Benghazi.

Kha, well the Serbs have a well-deserved reputation in this area, I doubt the Serb defence ministry would even know...

Further, re The Guide

Libya in turmoil - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

5.22pm: The BBC's John Simpson has interviewed the former Libyan interior minister Abdul Fattah Younis al-Abidi, who resigned on Tuesday and went over to the opposition. In an extract of the interview, which has just been broadcast, he called on Gaddafi to resign. Simpson added that the former minister told him that Gaddafi was "probably insane" and thought that he would last more than a few days. Simpson reporter the former minister as predicting Gaddafi would not commit suicide, but would instead go down fighting, which would be a "form of suicide".

....

5.18pm: In a sign of the worsening situation in Tripoli the US is considering closing its embassy in the capital amid violence between Gaddifi supporters and anti-government protesters, a US official has told Reuters.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the move was being considered but no decision had been made.

I am convinced that there is still significant time in front of us for Qadhdhafi, unless someone inside assassinates him, to fight. Tripoli is likely to be a last stand (if he is not preparing a Desert War, which perhaps he could pull off as a guerilla).

Continue reading "More Libya, burning Libya"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:40 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

MENA Unrest: Moroccan Fruits

Taking our eyes off of the carnage in Libya and what I believe to be the beginnings of a civil war there, a quick note on Morocco. The local press reported this a.m. rumours that the current prime minister and his government are likely to be booted. There are rumours flying around about what will happen. I heard from a very good friend of mine with Palace connections, direct ones, that the decision is already made, the Abbas El Fassi government is toast. The only question is who in the ministries are getting replaced and who are not.

Continue reading "MENA Unrest: Moroccan Fruits"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

To lighten the moment: Qadhdhafi Joke (Ar w Trans)

A joke making the rounds by email:
يحكى أن القذافي زار مدارس المغرب ذات مرة في عهد الحسن الثاني ووجد المعلمين يلاحظون في دفاتر تلامذتهم ب"حسن" و"مستحسن" و"حسن جدا" فأمر معلميه لما عاد إلى ليبيا أن يكتبوا للتلاميذ "مستقذف" "قذافي" و"قذافي جدا‬

English:
It's said that Qadhdhafi visited a Moroccan school in the time of [King] Hassan II and found "Very Good" [Ar: Hassan Jidun], "Commendable" [Mustehassen] and "Good"[Hassan] [all act. Mor. school grades] that teachers noted in the workbooks of the students. So when he returned to Libya, he ordered his teachers to use the grades "Very Qadhafi" [Q. jidun], "Established / Mustaqadhif" and "Qadhafi"(joke resides in Hassan II's name].

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:16 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 24, 2011

Chadian Mercenaries Report (Figaro, Fr)

Figaro cites a Chadian claim that Chad gov sent mercenaries to support The Guide. It also indicates that mercenaries were also sourced from Dar Fur, from the rebel Zaghawa.
 
Le Figaro - International : La garde tchadienne au secours du colonel Kadhafi

COMMENT HERE

N'Djamena aurait envoyé des troupes pour soutenir le «guide» libyen, qui recruterait également des groupes armés soudanais.

Le Tchad aurait envoyé des soldats au secours du colonel Kadhafi. C'est ce qu'affirme le site Tchadactuel, habituellement bien renseigné grâce à des sources proches du palais présidentiel de N'Djamena. Selon ce site, le président Idriss Déby lui-même aurait ordonné ce déploiement. Des habitants de Benghazi confirment l'arrivée de ces troupes.

D'après d'autres sources, des Tchadiens vivant sur place seraient également recrutés par les autorités de leur pays. Le chiffre de plus de mille militaires a été avancé, sans pouvoir être vérifié.Le Soudan, ajoute Tchadactuel, aurait également été sollicité mais aurait refusé. Le Tchad faciliterait en revanche le passage des Soudanais désireux d'aller se battre en Libye. Le JEM (Mouvement pour la justice et l'égalité), le plus armé des groupes rebelles du Darfour, fournirait aussi des hommes. La longue frontière entre le Tchad et la province rebelle de l'ouest du Soudan facilite les choses, tout comme la présence des deux côtés de cette frontière de membres de l'ethnie Zaghawa, celle du président tchadien.

Défection importante dans les forces spéciales

Comme toujours en Libye, l'argent du pétrole pourrait alimenter cette aide militaire. Avec le risque de déclencher des représailles contre les travailleurs tchadiens installés en Libye, et déjà mal vus par la population. Les militaires venus du Tchad pourraient être arrivés en Libye par le sud, franchissant une région montagneuse habitée de part et d'autre par l'ethnie Toubou, qui a dans les années 1990 mené une véritable guerre contre le gouvernement tchadien. Leur réaction est une inconnue.

Emphasis added.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:57 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Revolution and Cultural Revival

This interesting note from our friend Nisrine Malek is worth reading (and less depressing the watching Libya go to hell.

Egypt has returned from the cultural backwaters | Nesrine Malik | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

Egypt has returned from the cultural backwaters

Once the dominant force in Arab culture, post-revolutionary Egypt now has the chance to return to this role

I think there is an opportunity, it is certainly true that despite what the American Gov agents are always telling me, Egypt ceased to be a though leader in the Arab world ... well more or less since Sadat.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:19 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Flight of the Qadhdhafis

Not quite flight of the aviator.

Live Blog - Libya Feb 24 | Al Jazeera Blogs

10:52am Lebanese aythorites confirm they refused to allow a Libyan plane to land in Beirut yesterday - because its pilot would not identify its passengers. Online reports suggest the passengers included the wife of one of Gaddafi's sons.

combined with the Malta reports of turning away one or more unscheduled Libyan flights, I think we can see his sons probably don't share his Crazy Old Bedouin inclination to fight to the death. It probably would be preferable for Lebanon and Malta, etc. to allow them in, as that might result in a break and flight of Qadhdhafi supporters. Turning them around only reinforces the fight to the last man mentality.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:21 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 23, 2011

SubSah Afr Expats in Libya A useful point of reflexion

An item I believe is being potentially neglected in thinking about Gaddafi's reservoir of enforcers / sowers of civil war is the SSAf population in Libya, and the Black Libyans.

BBC News - Libya: Who is propping up Gaddafi?

Col Gaddafi has long fostered close relations with African countries, having turned his back on the Arab world some time ago, and there are an estimated 500,000 African expatriates in Libya out of a total population of six million.

The number of those serving as pro-Gaddafi mercenaries is thought to be quite small but their loyalty to his regime is said to be unquestioned and there are reports of extra flights being laid on to bring in more in recent days.

To put this in context, we need to think about the history of anti-Black progroms in Libya

Continue reading "SubSah Afr Expats in Libya A useful point of reflexion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Civil War bis

Underscoring that this is unlikely to end quickly or nicely, this report
Libya on the brink as Gaddafi promises showdown - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

1.07pm: My colleague Ghaith Abdul-Ahad has just been on the phone from the Tunisia-Libya border. He says there are hundreds of people coming through, mainly Tunisians. Some have been harassed and some beaten up by Libyans who blame them for stirring up trouble. They are scared.

At least one of the towns on the roads between Tripoli and the border is in the hands of anti-Gaddafi rebels. Checkpoints are manned by the Libyan army and pro-Gaddafi rebels.

On the Libyan side the border is manned by plain-clothes police who are "very, very, very loyal to Gaddafi, and very aggressive," Ghaith says.

The item re Tunisians strongly suggests that Qadhdhafi's line about foreign agitators, Tunisians, Moroccans, Egyptians, etc. being behind violence has a real audience. I believe the thesis of a civil war is very credible. The East is solidly Anti, but the West...

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The Libyan Mirage Defection: Maltese First account

Very interesting note from Malta's English newspaper

INDEPENDENT online

.... Meanwhile, AFM sources have told this newspaper that the jets, ... broke out of formation when their squadron was ordered to attack Libyan civilians. ..

While it is not yet known whether the two Colonels were in command of the mission and whether they encouraged their fellow pilots to make for Malta, it has been established that the two aircraft peeled off and dove for the deck. They flew below 500 feet to avoid detection while in Libyan airspace – presumably both out of fear of surface-to-air missiles being launched from Libya and also to lose the rest of the squadron. It is understood that the flight, which takes about 40-45 minutes on a commercial jet liner, took only six to nine minutes in the Mirages, as afterburners were engaged. In pilot talk, as one source put it, they “bunted, dove for the deck, hit the afterburners and screamed towards Malta”.

There are two accounts of how the aircraft made contact. Some sources say they requested emergency landing clearance as they were out of fuel (Malta is obliged to acquisce), while others said that the planes landed in formation and only announced their arrival when they set down on the tarmac on the commercial runway.

The newspaper also notes that the flight time is scary for Malta as a reminder of how close they are to Libya should more serious trouble breaks out.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Notes of Caution re Qadhdhafi support (& civil war)

A useful note from Leila Fadel in the Washington post regarding the mixed bag in Libya.

In Libya, increasingly divergent views of Gaddafi

In Libya, increasingly divergent views of Gaddafi

By Leila Fadel
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; A01

TOBRUK, LIBYA - On Libya's northeastern border, there are no visa procedures and no passport-control officers. There's just a gaggle of armed young men - defected soldiers and police officers - waving people through.

"Welcome to the new Libya," reads a graffiti tag at the crossing.

The young men eagerly displayed cellphone videos that they said depicted government mercenaries shooting down women, children and men. They told of rapes, looting and killings over the past week, as demonstrators have risen up in open revolt and the government of Moammar Gaddafi has cracked down hard.

"Our leader is a tyrant, and he'll kill us all in cold blood," said Hassan el-Modeer, a British-educated engineer. "The world needs to intervene as soon as possible."

Opposition supporters described this area to visitors as the "liberated eastern region of Libya," and anti-government sentiment runs high here.

But it is also clear that deep divisions remain. Even in this coastal town, more than 900 miles from Libya's capital and in an area that has slipped well beyond the government's control, some still support Gaddafi, who has ruled this country for 41 years

Further in the article is noted signs of ongoing support - no reason to believe not genuine - of the Guide. It is easy to get caught up in the moving video and emails, etc., from Libya and underestimate the potential of 'counter-revolutionary' blowback from people with various reasons to support The Guide.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:19 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

The incoherence of Arab Left commentary: West Damned if it does, damned if it doesn't

Typical of Angry Arab, this comment:

The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب

Obama and Hillary still don't want Qadhdhafi to surrender power: they fear the impact on oil field, just as they feared the impact in Egypt on the lousy peace treaty.

Where he gets this from escapes, as the Americans are clearly not friends of The Guide by any rational stretch of the imagination. Evidently, if the American government is not making sloppy posturing statements like himself, that means they're for something. It escapes, apparently, that it is not the role of diplomacy to make angry, loose commentary (in public). Not that American condemnations, or anyone else's is going to have any effect on The Guide at all. It would be pure self-indulgence. Which is fine for bloggers, but incompetent idiocy for governments.

Of course this same line of commentary, when the Americans do say something, then wrings its hands about Western interference in Arab affaires. In fact the Obama administration is doing the Arabs a favour by staying out of the way, and giving the protesters the space not to be foreign stooges, but themselves.

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Jamahiri-ism Blowback:

An interesting hypothesis re The Guide's popular committees habit actually having some blowback for him in providing institutions for popular revolt - the real kind.

Blog - The Arabist

Reports from liberated east Libyan cities suggest an impressive level of organization on the part of the populace, with most basic urban functions up and running. One wonders if Qaddafi's ideosyncratic jamahiriyan ideology, roping people into participating in rubber-stamp "Basic People's Congresses" to create a facade of direct democracy, has in fact formed the provided the institutional template for a countrywide insurrection against him.

Intriguing propo, not sure if it will stand up, but interesting. 

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February 22, 2011

Updated Open Thread on Region Rumbles

Idle note: UN chief Ban-ki Moon reports: "As I said extensively to Colonel [Muammar] Gaddafi this morning over the phone, I urged him that human rights and freedom of assembly and freedom of speech must be fully protected. " After all this, he's still just a colonel?! Anyway, new open thread on developments.

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Foreign Intervention, Maybe, Maybe Not: Reservations on Marc Lynch's Call For Libya Help

Marc Lynch, aka Abu Aardvark, calls for sorta kinda foreign NATOidal interventionish actiony-like things in Libya, which he compares to Rwanda and others. I sorta kinda both agree and disagree, what with being near ideologically non-interventiony, but kind of ambivalently sympathetic and ok with loopholes to sort of allow it, but maybe not really. Hope that's muddy enough for you.

Continue reading "Foreign Intervention, Maybe, Maybe Not: Reservations on Marc Lynch's Call For Libya Help"

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February 21, 2011

Et on Morocco

The violence that broke out in the Moroccan demonstrations seems to me to be connected with two things.

First, copy-catism among some of the "Youth"(teenagers) who've been watching this stuff on TV and it sees fun.
Second, Endemic hooliganism among the Bidonville (slums) youth, who are always dangerous as the full-out deployment of police and military every time there is a major football match indicates.

Morocco riots leave five dead | World news | guardian.co.uk

Protest organisers condemned the rioting and looting that followed the demonstrations, blaming it on thugs and football hooligans returning from matches.

While the mostly middle-class pro-democracy protesters had pledged to remain peaceful, there were warnings before the marches that the real tinderbox in Morocco lay in the poverty-stricken outer suburbs of the cities, where many of Sunday's rioters are thought to live.

...

Interior minister Taeib Cherqaoui said 128 people had been injured on Sunday, mostly police officers. A further 120 people were detained. He said "troublemakers" had vandalised dozens of public buildings, shops and banks.

Tangier, Larache, Marrakech, Sefrou, Tetouan and Guelmim suffered the worst violence, with a total of 33 public buildings being attacked or set on fire.

Cherqaoui said the demonstrations themselves had been peaceful, calling them an example of "the healthy practise of the freedom of expression".

It is no surprise the main violence is in these particularly disfavoured cities (ex Marrakech which is not disfavoured, but which has become insanely expensive and oulad el bled - the locals - feel marginalised / squeezed out by chichi Euros buying properties, etc)., The Moroccan government seems to be taking a very smart and adult line on this.

There is need for reform to political process and addressing equality of opportunity (attacking Oligarchism) in the near term, but I don't see Morocco as a tinderbox. Hopefully the Gov will use this as an excuse to reactivate lagging political and economic liberalization.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Libya, the descent

The information out of Libya is chaotic, unreliable and disturbing. What can only be concluded is that the Guide's regime is hanging on by the slimmest threads, but that the Qadhdhafi clan know that, and they know that if they go, they personally will likely die unpleasantly. So their solution: unleash hell.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1556: Two Libyan fighter jets have landed unexpectedly in Malta, witnesses say. The Mirage jets were seen landing at Malta's international airport on Monday afternoon. The Maltese foreign ministry said it was trying to establish why the planes had landed.

Dozens reported killed in Tripoli unrest | Top News | Reuters

In signs of disagreement inside Libya's ruling elite, the justice minister resigned in protest at the "excessive use of violence" against protesters.

Libya's ambassador to India told the BBC he was resigning in protest at the violent crackdown

It said security forces were looting banks and other government institutions in Tripoli, and protesters had broken into several police stations and wrecked them.

A Reuters reporter in Tripoli said residents were stocking up on essential goods, apparently in anticipation of new clashes after nightfall. There were long queues at food shops and long lines of cars at fuel stations.

Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam Gaddafi appeared on national television in an attempt both to threaten and to calm people, saying the army would enforce security at any price to put down one of the bloodiest revolts to convulse the Arab world.

"We will keep fighting until the last man standing, even to the last woman standing," he said on Sunday.

In the eastern city of Benghazi, protesters appeared to be largely in control after forcing troops and police to retreat to a compound. Government buildings were set ablaze and ransacked.

"Youths with weapons are in charge of the city. There are no security forces anywhere," University of Benghazi professor Hanaa Elgallal told Al Jazeera International television.

Salahuddin Abdullah, a self-described protest organiser, said: "In Benghazi there is celebration and euphoria ... The city is no longer under military control. It is completely under demonstrators' control."

There were reports that soldiers who refused to fire on civilians were executed by commanding officers in Benghazi.

Après moi, le deluge.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:22 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 20, 2011

Libya: Dancing by The Grave (but whose end game?)

Only 48 hours ago if someone had asked me could the Guide fall I would have said, "not bloody likely." Now I am not sure at all.

Live Blog - Libya | Al Jazeera Blogs

12:11 am: Libya's ambassador to China, Hussein Sadiq al Musrati, has just resigned on air with Al Jazeera Arabic. He called on the army to intervene, and has called all diplomatic staff to resign.

He made claims about a gunfight between Gaddafi's sons and also claimed that Gaddafi may have left Libya. Al Jazeera has no confirmation of these claims.

11:25 pm Online reports claim remaining pro-Gaddafi militia in Benghazi, around the Elfedeel Bu Omar compound, "are being butchered by angry mobs". It is impossible to verify the claims, though Al Jazeera has spoken with several people in the city who say protesters control the city, as security forces flee to the airport.

However, I believe that Qadhdhafi and the people close to his system are going to have every reason in the world to fight savagely for their position as I don't think a negotiated solution or a light resolution is possible given they went the Full Qadhdhafi.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Libya, The Revolt of the East & The Guide takes the Chinese option

The Libyan situation rather smells like civil war, and that between regions.

Middle East protests - LIVE | News | guardian.co.uk

10.30am Libya:
This news report from Al-Jazeera shows chaotic scenes in Libya's north-eastern city of Benghazi. Anti-government protesters appear to have set fire to a security building and there are pictures of some making off with weapons - including an artillery round

12.01pm Libya:

Associated Press is reporting that the death toll is Benghazi may be much higher than the estimate from Human Rights Watch (which they had called "conservative").

A doctor in the Libyan city of Benghazi says his hospital has seen the bodies of at least 200 protesters killed by Moammar Gadhafi's forces over the last few days. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he fears reprisal.
Witnesses told AP that a mixture of special commandos, foreign mercenaries and Gadhafi loyalists went after demonstrators on Saturday with knives, assault rifles and heavy-caliber weapons.

Continue reading "Libya, The Revolt of the East & The Guide takes the Chinese option"

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February 19, 2011

Background: The Regional Power Blocs & The Current Upheavals

Oversimplified, and like Caesar’s Gaul, there are three regional power centers in MENA, and they fall roughly – but not entirely -- along the lines of dominant religious identity.

Continue reading "Background: The Regional Power Blocs & The Current Upheavals"

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February 18, 2011

Open Thread: Region All A-Twitter

Details coming in from all over (see our Mr. L's posts below); comments with or on news are welcome. A Sunni future ahead for Bahrein; will it all turn to Shiite? A new Khalifa fate? The Guide led away? Security counsel unheeded in the UN veto? Mob grab in the Maghreb? Tahrir view mirrored?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:42 PM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

Libya, yes indeed, the Whole Qadhdhafi

Some blood curdling news out of Libya

Violence in Bahrain and Libya: live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

9.13pm GMT - Libya:

Protesters are "committing suicide" according to the chilling statement from the Revolutionary Committees – an integral part of Gaddafi's regime – published on the Azzahf al-Akhdar website:

The response of the people and the Revolutionary Forces to any adventure by these small groups will be sharp and violent.

The power of the people, the Jamahiriya, the Revolution and the leader are all red lines, and anyone who tries to cross or approach them will be committing suicide and playing with fire.

9pm GMT - Libya:

The Guardian's Ian Black and Owen Bowcott report on the day's chaos in Libya:

Diplomats reported the use of heavy weapons in Benghazi, Libya's second city, and "a rapidly deteriorating situation" in the latest Arab country to be hit by serious unrest.

Amid a near-total official news blackout, fragmentary information and a ban on journalists entering Libya, there was a blizzard of rumours and claims about killings by mercenaries and defections by members of the security forces.

In one highly significant development, prisoners were reported to have escaped en masse from al-Jadida jail in the capital, Tripoli, which has so far been calm.

Yes, I think my BD is right out.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:59 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Bahrain's Monarchy is flagrantly stupid

First, the bloody repression they launched seems to me to have been mostly unnecessary and just plain idiocy - unless they are willing to go the full Qadhdhafi. Of course doing so would fuck their aspirations as a banking and commerce centre right into a cocked hat.

This note from BBC on Nicholas Kristof is quite on:
BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1023: Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times tells the BBC World Service that he has heard Bahrain's royal family is unhappy with his reporting: "I've heard that through the PR firms that they hire. There is apparently a campaign to get me fired - I don't really know how they're going to proceed with that. Most remarkably, one member of the royal family tweeted that I am supplying weapons to outlaws and that I have ties to Hezbollah. To me this was a reflection of the completely delusional world in which the government lives. The government does not want reporters here... This is a wealthy country, it's cosmopolitan, it's well-educated, it's a banking centre. And then they have this thuggish behaviour, with police sent in firing on people, crowds. It is astonishing and it breaks your heart."

Presuming Kristof is correctly reporting the Royal Tweets (to be taken with a grain of salt, as of course a Tweet I am not sure is confirmable as to source, etc), that is indeed delusional. It does seem in keeping with the style of response. But the response really makes no sense given Bahrain's aspirations.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:05 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

February 17, 2011

The Guide: tear gas? Real permo revolutions use Helo Gunships

This, if confirmed, is going to put a real crimp in the Guide's path to respectability.

Libya protests: Colonel Muammar Gaddafi turns helicopter gunships on own people - Telegraph

Libya protests: Colonel Muammar Gaddafi turns helicopter gunships on own people
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's regime turned helicopter gunships and snipers on protesters killing up to 19 people yesterday as rare anti-government demonstrations were last night reported to have reached Tripoli, the capital.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:58 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Libya: The Guide & The Expected Return (Iron Fist)

There is not much surprise in this report:FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Libya crushes ‘day of anger’ efforts

Libya crushes ‘day of anger’ efforts Libyan security forces arrested activists and clashed with protesters on Thursday as Muammar Gaddafi’s regime cracked down on efforts to organise a “day of anger” on the back of uprisings that forced the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents from office.

Activists and human rights officials said protesters and security forces clashed in Benghazi, the oil-rich nation’s second city, and Al-Bayda, the scene of violence the previous night.

Tripoli, the capital of the oil-rich nation, appeared calm as several hundred supporters of Mr Gaddafi, who has ruled Libya since 1969, held a demonstration in the centre of the city.

“There were clearly attempts to demonstrate in Benghazi and al-Bayda since this morning and there have been arrests since last night,” said Heba Morayef, North Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch. “What we have seen in the last couple of days is a crackdown on peaceful protestors though arrests, beatings, tear gas, and in Al-Bayda, live fire.”

Doubtless The Guide can suppress opposition through flagrant violence, although probably damaging his long-run transition stability (Saif?) and possibly seeing his new western friends (mmmm I resemble that remark) scared off.

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Sleazy Self-Promotion and the Lara Logan Incident

Although not directly spotlighting this issue, the apparent "wilding" attack on journalist Lara Logan amidst the Tahrir Square celebrations brings to mind my own thematically related essay from a few years back, which I sleazily and opportunistically link here.

Continue reading "Sleazy Self-Promotion and the Lara Logan Incident"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Ben Ali in Coma

Well he did indeed take that hard:
BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1613: News of Tunisia's ex-leader Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali - French news agency AFP quotes a source saying he is "in a coma".

As an aside, I believe I suggested somewhere that Ben Ali genuinely saw himself as a real modernizer.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:24 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Bahrain Protests Crushed: This perhaps isn't going to help with the financial centre aspirations

Bahrain is one of the countries in the region I have very little direct experience with, so I shall limit myself
BBC News - Bahrain protests banned as military tightens grip

There were columns of tanks and armoured personnel carriers moving through the city this morning. The area around Pearl Square, which was the home of the protesters up until 12 to 15 hours ago, is now ringfenced by the security forces.

Barbed wire has been erected; there are vehicle checkpoints and roadblocks around the city, traffic is being controlled, and the authorities have said all protests have been banned.

It was a very different scene at the hospital: one of passion, chaos, mourning - and anger. Hundreds of people were gathered outside as the ambulances turned up. Crowds rushed forward; doctors were angry because they said ambulances had been prevented from attending to those people who had been injured when the police attacked them.

This kind of crack down is likely to see ongoing violence and... well I bet the Khalifas just chose dynasty over national aspirations as a financial centre.

It does rather suggest that this really is the Arab 1848. I had my doubts.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:21 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

February 15, 2011

Egypt: The Council of Wise Men

A...Council...of...Wise...Men? 3 comments. 1: WTF? 2: Like, WTF? 3: Really, now, what the f--- is up with that? On another note - probably G# or thereabouts -- I seriously do think that this Council of Wise Men (WTF?) is the closest thing to the USA party-line going on around there (not the simplistics of "puppets" but there is an alignment going on). So, no, o ye puppet spotters, to play your game, it's not the military, not the politically deceased Mubarak, but the correct answer is probably that merry band of sagacious male folks. And, by the way, a Council of Wise Men, like WTF?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:12 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

Iran: Islamming the Opposition

Recent reports of unrest in Iran contain this ominous news: "Opposition supporters revived a tactic from the unrest, shouting 'Allahu Akbar', or God is Great, from rooftops and balconies into the early hours Monday in a sign of defiance toward Iran's leadership." Oh my gosh! Holy crapoli! Oh, no! Does this mean if these folks win, we might face . . . an Islamist Iran? No democracy for you! (Sorry, couldn't resist.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:55 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 13, 2011

Military Coup? You say that like it's a bad thing

In consideration of points raised by colleagues and commentators here and elsewhere, who note that Generalissimo Mubarak was almost certainly squeezed out as President in Egypt. In essence, that departure does seem to have proceeded from a military coup or some couplike squeezure(?) of sorts. This fact was telegraphed implicitly in Communiques from the Super-Duper Army Honcho Roundtable. Further, since the transition did not involve the prescribed order of succession and power transfers the constitution demands, it appears that an extraconstitutional coup was also effected. That said: I am really having a hard time finding too much of a problem with all that.

Continue reading "Military Coup? You say that like it's a bad thing"

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February 11, 2011

The Mamlouk Coup: Mubarek Out, Long Live...

BBC News - Egypt crisis: President Hosni Mubarak resigns as leader

Wee wrinkle, the Gov is now the Military.

Constitution breached

Mubarek seems to me to be out because every time he opened his bloody mouth, it made things worse. The military evidently decided the was taking the ship down..

As noted here

But the army takeover looks very much like a military coup, our correspondent adds.

The constitution has been breached, he says, because officially it should be the speaker of parliament who takes over, not the army leadership.

Celebrations are normal, but I wouldn't do so myself quite as yet.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:15 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Walk Like a Tunisian

Looks like Mubarak blinked. NOW's the time to ask: what next? Have away.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:21 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

The Supreme Council & Communique No. X:

Interesting observations from Brian Whitaker:

Mubarak teases Egypt as his regime fragments | Brian Whitaker | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

There is also the mysterious business of the ominously titled "Communique Number One" from the supreme council of the armed forces saying that the military has begun taking "necessary measures to protect the nation" and "support the legitimate demands of the people".

What exactly does that mean, and how does it relate to Mubarak's non-resignation speech? Indeed, why did Mubarak need to make a speech at all if he is not resigning?

According to reports, the supreme council has met only three times in its history: in 1967 and 1973 (when the country was at war) – and on Thursday. Thursday's meeting was held without its chairman, Mubarak, and apparently the meeting was adjourned without formally concluding. A second communique has failed to clarify the army's position.

I remain convinced that the Mamlouks are simply manoeuvring.

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February 10, 2011

Egyptian Regime: Not Anyone's Puppet

One idea that is slowly fading from all sides in the Egypt drama -- for the most part -- is the simplistic notion or assertion that the Egyptian regime has been some sort of puppet for the USA. It is quite true that the US has great leverage – money, “good offices”, and weaponry supplies do talk – but the Mubarak government and its actions have their own genesis, as does the revolt. The regime will fall or endure as what it is: an Egyptian phenomenon. As to the bilateral relationship with the USA, America has been Egypt's client in the business sense of the term, not the other way around.

Continue reading "Egyptian Regime: Not Anyone's Puppet"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:55 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 09, 2011

Egypt Funding Machine bis

The financing of the government is also in play, as the issue of deposits with State banks comes to the fore.

FT.com / Emerging Markets - Egypt faces bleak outlook on debt

Egypt’s debt markets, particularly its local currency denominated bonds and bills, will find support from liquid local banks. However, these banks are not entirely uncritical buyers of Egyptian debt and could see their ability to finance the government deficit weaken if depositors continue to withdraw money.

The central bank was forced to cut the planned treasury bill sale this week to E£13bn ($2.9bn), and increase the price it paid to local banks that picked up almost all of the issue.

“On one hand you have a liquid local banking sector as an anchor but, on the other, you have a deterioration of Egypt’s credit profile,” says Mr Kolbe. “A lot depends on what happens on the political side but we expect the market to remain volatile and spreads to remain elevated at this stage.”

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 08, 2011

Egypt Sells Most of Treasury Debt Offered as Yields Climb to Two-Year High

Well that worked, but...:

Egypt Sells Most of Treasury Debt Offered as Yields Climb to Two-Year High - Bloomberg

Egypt raised most of the 15 billion Egyptian pounds ($2.5 billion) it sought at a debt auction as local banks stepped in to provide financing in the wake of protests aimed at ending President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule.

The government sold a total 13 billion pounds of bills, paying yields of 10.97 percent on 91-day notes, the highest rate in two years and up 147 basis points, or 1.47 percentage point, from the previous sale on Jan. 27. The yield is down from 14 percent in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse in September 2008.

“We were expecting yields to be higher but government banks especially National Bank of Egypt helped stabilize the market,” Khalil El Bawab, the head of fixed-income at Cairo- based EFG-Hermes Asset Management, said in a telephone interview. National Bank of Egypt Chairman Tarek Amer said that the bank will continue to buy government t-bills

Emphasis added
One part of the Gov stepped in to buy the other part's issuance.

Of course that is less liquidity for the private sector, but since Egyptian public banks do tied lending....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Egypt: the Mamlouk Market

An analysis from Daily Dish that 'gets the game' of what I have been calling on Giraffe, The Waiting Game:

The "Manufactured Safety" Of Egypt's Army - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

The basic facts: 1) The military profits handsomely from the current power structure. 2) Mubarak's unpopularity threatens to bring down the govenment and therefore put the military's spoils in jeopardy. 3) The military can't make Mubarak leave yet - otherwise power would transfer out of the military's hands. 4) The military can't crack down on the protesters because that would cause an internal rift - some members of the army would likely refuse to fire - which would risk mutiny. 5) For Egypt's veep, Omar Suleiman, to assume power he needs to either change the constitution or wait until the next election and rig the vote in his favor.

The private hostility and the public neutrality of the army makes sense if the military elite's main goal is to maintain its access to the treasury. The army is not neutral - it's tactical.

Quite.

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Is Yemen better suited for politcal reform than Egypt or Tunisia

Ahem.... A serious article. I guess it all depends on what one thinks of political reform.

Is Yemen Better Suited for Reform Than Egypt or Tunisia? - Joshua Foust - International - The Atlantic

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Social Media v Older Islamist Revolutions: Discuss

Propositions. Discuss. Refute, modify, or support premises or conclusion: Dictators in largely Muslim countries have evoked Islamist-oriented rebellions/dissent in part because they repressed all forums of public gathering except the mosque (exception Enver Hoxha: he took out the mosque). Nowadays, a new form of gathering space has emerged via the internet, social media, etc. This was not repressed in part because the repressive apparatus didn't understand it (older generation) and also they saw it more as a pressure escape valve. Now the users of such media are far less likely to be the traditional types that were lured to Islamism and thus the outbreaks of today are biased towards cosmopolitans with a preference for the concept of a liberal forum of ideas and social pluralism. Discuss.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Tunisia Appeal for Aid

A smart appeal, although I suspect the US, instead of investing in the country where it has the greatest liklihood of effect (and where it chose the side of Angels), will continue to pour billions down the Egyptian rat hole.

FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Tunisia appeals for aid to protect democracy

Tunisia’s interim prime minister, Mohammed Ghannouchi, has appealed for international funding to “protect the Tunisian experiment”, insisting that the cost “would be really very modest compared with what is at stake”.

He told The Financial Times in an interview there was no guarantee that the transition to democracy after the toppling of Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali as president last month would go smoothly. The popular uprising inspired protest campaigns across the Arab world, most notably in Egypt.
 
“There are forces that would like to take it back to square one,” he said. “All the people who have things they can reproach themselves for, who profited from the old system, are going to do all they can to hinder this democratic process.”

 

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Tunisia, the profile of faux econ liberalism

Now, the arty below I strongly suggest taking Gulfies complains about bureaucracy with a large grain of salt. Maghreb bureaucracies do follow the finest French traditions of inflexibility, but on the flip side my experience with Gulfies is that they expect all rules etc to be open to personal negotiation (e.g. adding on floors at a whim on approved building plans, etc.). There is a happy medium that neither side has achieved. In many respects I prefer the Maghreb side as at least there are genuine institutions, rather than generalised personal fiat. 

FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Tunisia left with an investment mirage

Tunisia was always heralded, by itself and others, as a magnet for Gulf investment. But just as the political unrest of the past month has given the lie to its political stability, another mirage is the country’s image as a prime investment destination, Gulf investors say.

They complain of a combination of grinding bureaucracy, corrupt demands and interference from the family of the former president Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali. The impact of the global financial crisis added a further burden to many landmark foreign investments.

“Gulf businessmen found out that corruption in Tunisia wasn’t the corruption they were used to,” says one Tunisian banker. “You pay to get in, but you don’t get a service in return.”

Statistics suggest that the UAE is the largest investor in Tunisia, with more than $30bn of foreign direct investment.

Yet Gulf businesses may have promised grandiose plans but in reality have only mobilised a much smaller amount of capital. While Tunis Sports City is the most advanced UAE project in the country, Bukhatir is still only believed to have invested a tiny fraction of the $5bn cost.

“Bukhatir has been deeply committed to the development and remains focused towards Tunisia’s long-term growth prospects,” the company said in a statement.

Gulf investors say most deals, even those that went through government agencies and ministries, eventually ended up with some sort of financial demands from the broader family of Ben Ali, from bribes to finalise the transfer of land to fully fledged joint ventures.

Emphasis added.

The item re The Family is important. By all accounts I have from professional partners in Tunisia, the Trabelsis (mostly but not only) got quite rapacious in the past decade and it only escalated in the past 5 years as a sense of impunity grew. Raises questions I may add, parenthetically, about Transparency Int'l indices.

The other item here is the Vapour Ware effect of Gulfie investments, particularly Dubai / UAE investors who have not given up on their 'minimal direct capital, maximum effort to flip on speculation'  - the speculation and flipping strategy being why they're so keen on the big announcements effect. A leveraged strategy they're still trying even now.  That's in contrast with the Kuwaitis who tend to eschew that, and actually put in the hard capital and get something done before crowing about it.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:54 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

February 07, 2011

Neither Free Market nor Lbieral, Egypt

An Item I must return to as it is my speciality

Resentment Finds a Target In Ahmed Ezz - NYTimes.com

On paper, the changes transformed an almost entirely state-controlled economic system to a predominantly free-market one. In practice, though, a form of crony capitalism emerged, according to Egyptian and foreign experts. State-controlled banks acted as kingmakers, extending loans to families who supported the government but denying credit to viable businesspeople who lacked the right political pedigree.

This is in effect part of the problem of that kind of regime. The usual Left academic critique is that " IMF diktat"  (a phrase that one can only use if one has actually no experience with IMF and their limp-wristed ways with such regimes) forces 'neo-liberal'  economics down the throats of countries like Egypt. Quite the contrary, Egypt came to these reforms on the bankruptcy of their state-driven model, with all the crony-ism and gross and massive inefficiencies that State models everywhere have shown. They adopted part of the IMF & WB advice re privatisation for greater efficiency, but only part. They did not adopt free market reforms as such. Unfortunately, privatisations were merely transfers from nominal state ownership with monopoly control to regime-cronies with monopoly control (as well as Military related control). More efficient than the state, yes, but not overall better for the population. Pseudo free market without a reasonably free press to critique regime and cronies, and without a reasonably free financial system (the Egyptian system remains massively state dominated, which as this note correctly indicates, doesn't mean more ' social' direction, it means more ability for rent extraction), you get this Frankenstein system.

Of course people hate this system, it combines the worst features of both systems.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 06, 2011

The Revolution, So Far

Burgeoning political science academic with an urban planning/space expertise* blogger Colorless Revolution gives colorful reflections from on the scene -- and more recently away from the scene -- of the Egyptian uprising. In entries from over several days, he discusses where it may go and not go, and what it may need to do. The whole series is worth reading in full, but some excerpts (not necessarily in chronological order) are below. (The questions appearing above each section are our own captions, not his). Side irrelevant pondering: are urban planners just a bunch of Squares?

* Corrected from earlier misidentification as a full-fledged urban planner.

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February 04, 2011

Best Quote So Far -- From Egypt's new PM

Originally from CNN:

[Egyptian Prime Minister] Ahmed Shafiq, . . . appealed to his compatriots, especially Egypt's youth, to show patience . . . "It has great meaning not to hurt each other*, [or] hurt our reputation," he said. "Do they want what happened in Tunisia to happen here?"

Meanwhile, my proposed ten day rule of street revolutions faces the big test.

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February 03, 2011

Retrospective on the Progression of Riots in Tunisia

The way riots spread from rural Tunisia to urban Tunisia was through rural exodus and timing coincidence. The details about what occured when exactly vary according to versions - but they generally involve repression during a market day. The most likely version is that Bouazizi's immolation, or his relatives' angry reaction against the administration, would have happened then.

That is, when his relatives started throwing rocks at the police station and/or the governorate and/or the town hall buildings, police reacted with their usual violence, and that further angered the people in the market. Snowball effect to nearby towns and then to the usual unrestive interior and southern Tunisia. Center-coastal (the usual source of the ruling and economic elite) and North (center of power with Tunis) joined only later, when the relatives of interior and southern Tunisians who moved to the capital for economic reasons reacted. They started rioting against the police because of the repression going on in their villages, building up from a few incidents in some working class neighbourhoods of Tunis to a widespread movement.

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Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?

A very short answer, only in the delusional imaginations of certain Americans.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?
08 Feb 2011 05:19 pm

by Conor Friedersdorf

Above Mickey Kaus surmises yes, and Bob Wright forcefully insists no. On this one, I agree with Bob, and I've never understood why seeing the United States military invade a country and establish a democracy would inspire revolutions elsewhere. It was never ignorance of democracy's existence that was stopping other Arab populations from rising up – and it isn't as if "get invaded by America" was a viable strategy or a desired thing elsewhere.

 

 

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:21 AM | Comments (0)

The Mubarek Gamble: The Counter-Rev.

A smart analysis,

Egypt protests: Mubarak shows his dark side | Simon Tisdall | Comment is free | The Guardian

Mubarak's speech to the nation on Tuesday night was widely misinterpreted. The president was, by turns, angry, defiant and unrepentant. He offered no apologies, proposed no new initiatives, gave no promise that his son Gamal would not succeed him, and instead lectured Egyptians on the importance of order and stability (which he alone could assure).

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February 02, 2011

Game over, Egyptian democracy lost

A useful article. I suspect accurate.

Game Over: The Chance For Democracy In Egypt Is Lost | The Middle East Channel

Game over: The chance for democracy in Egypt is lost
Posted By Robert Springborg Wednesday, February 2, 2011 - 4:23 PM Share

While much of American media has termed the events unfolding in Egypt today as "clashes between pro-government and opposition groups," this is not in fact what's happening on the street. The so-called "pro-government" forces are actually Mubarak's cleverly orchestrated goon squads dressed up as pro-Mubarak demonstrators to attack the protesters in Midan Tahrir, with the Army appearing to be a neutral force. The opposition, largely cognizant of the dirty game being played against it, nevertheless has had little choice but to call for protection against the regime's thugs by the regime itself, i.e., the military. And so Mubarak begins to show us just how clever and experienced he truly is. The game is, thus, more or less over.

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Mubarek Regime Strategy

An item worth reading to understand regime strategy

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Double Edged Influence

Abu Muqawwama has an obs re US Military influence & Egyptian officer corp

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The Shame of Tuesday: Cairo & The Grave

I entitled my thread at Giraffe Boards The Mubarek Denouement: Egypt dances past the grave thinking I was being wryly amusing.

That turns out not to have been the case. As I started reflecting in that thread, I have been suspecting for several days now - based not only on following the news but things I have heard from friends in region who ... well have a reason to know such information that Mubarek had sworn not do as Ben Ali.

Today's events, after some hope on Tuesday that something could move, showed that Mubarek & Co. believe that they can bluster their way through this, and that their analysis of Ben Ali - he was cowardly, his nerve cracked - is driving them to drive Egypt towards the abyss.

Repeating from the Thread's last post.

Emphasis added.

Returning to my sceptical analysis of weeks back, I do feel I was right in that the Mubarek system has deeper roots than Ben Ali, and there are more people with more to lose if he goes. That opens the door to the Chinese option, although that US$1bn might slightly counteract.

A comment in the same vein by Richard Spencer of the Telegraph:

What I fear here is that Mubarek et al are generating a situation where neither they nor the moderate protesters come out whole, and that in fact he is preparing the ground for an extreme end of the Ikhouan.

This in contrast with Ben Ali, as my wife said, we are just now appreciating what he spared Tunisia.

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February 01, 2011

Americans Smarter Than Canadians About Egypt?

I know that among you sophisticated international typesCanadians, among others, are supposed to be smarter than Us Dumbo ‘mericans. But this comment in an AP story on foreigners evacuating Egypt makes me wonder. I’ve deleted the individual’s name because I am not singling him out personally, especially as there are apparently 34 other Maple Leaferssimilarly, um, unperceptive. But is this an example of how out of touch expert resident expats are about Egypt?

"We did not see the protests coming. All of us have been surprised," said . . . the deputy head of the Canadian International School in Cairo, who left Egypt along with 34 of his colleagues

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January 30, 2011

Rached Ghannouchi Returns to Tunisia (with rant on Anti-Islamist Panic)

Exiled Ennahda party leader Rached Ghannouchi was received by enthusiastic crowd when his plane landed. Given that he is somewhat of an Islamist, apparenlty his presence doesn't count as a step towards True Democracy, in the proposals of Robert Satloff, who wants the US to sponsor a new wave of Arab democratic government which would, apparently, not allow any non-secular or at least Islamist party to participate. In other words, the same thing all over again, a Ben Ali, only with multiple parties. Rant below, on anti-Islamist Panic.

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A Ten Day Rule for Revolutions?

Ten Days That Shook The World was American Communist John Reed’s account of the street politics of ten days in 1917 when the relatively liberal regime of the newly Tsar-poor Russia, led by Alexander Kerensky, was overthrown by the Bolshevik Leninist nightmare. (Not all revolutions are good.) But could there be a certain magic number to ten days in determining a regime change from street action? See below.

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January 29, 2011

Late notes on Tunisia

One of the interesting signs of maturity in this revolution was the self-organizing of neighbourhood watches to protect against the ex-Republican Guards turned looting psychopathic militias.

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We're Back: Whole New MENA Universe Open Thread

Our members have been distracted, and we went a bit supine, but we have been in the loop for latest developments, which we at Aqoul were not surprised at, though the timing, like such things, could never be precise. Anyway, as our esteemed members chime in with entries, do have at the latest developments in comments below. And if your comment is the usual sh*t-in-pants "what if these uprisings all turn Islamist like Iran?" Just type in "Cliche concern A" as your comment and save on bandwidth.

Bonus: Nice call out on Christopher Hitchens idiocy.

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Error 404 -- Far East of Suez

Concern about fallout from Egypt's public uprising spreads far.

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