Political Development Archives

March 06, 2012

Salafi Lawmaker forced to resign over nosejob (and false claim...)

Amusing as this is, the story of the Egyptian Lawmaker Resigns After Lying About Nose Job - NYTimes.com from the Nour party is slightly indicative of something. When they were utterly excluded from power, these guys got an air of saintliness in part from never really being held up to scrutiny. I rather think that is how this idiot thought he could get away with this (that is getting some nose work but claiming he got beaten up by thugs). It will be vastly harder for the Salafistes etc. to keep up their image now that they are in the limelight.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 06, 2012

End American (and other) Aid to Egypt

Noted this via the Arabist, frankly Steve Cook is spot on: From the Potomac to the Euphrates » Egypt and the United States: It’s Not You, It’s Me

I say we oblige Aboul Naga and wind down the aid program—including military assistance—as soon as practical. It’s hard to run against the “foreign hand” if there is no foreign hand. In addition to undermining Aboul Naga’s claims (and hopefully weakening her) bringing an end to the aid program and shutting down the USAID mission has multiple political benfits. First, Washington will no longer be in the unseemly position of providing taxpayer largesse—however small in the grand scheme of things—to a government that resents the United States and clearly does not share its values. Second, it will provide an opportunity for a much-needed change in military-to-military relations in which the United States merely pays for the services it needs like expedited transit through the Suez Canal. Third, it is consistent with this moment of empowerment and dignity for Egyptians many of whom do not want U.S. assistance either because they believe it actually stands in the way of a democratic transition or accept Aboul Naga’s argument along with those who couldn’t care less about U.S. assistance because it doesn’t touch their lives. Finally, it will free up funds for the United States to help others who actually might want Washington’s help, perhaps the Tunisians, Moroccans, or some sub-Saharan African countries would be grateful for development assistance.

This goes for others aide as well (UK, Germany).

Assistance spent on Tunisia, Morocco, the Sahel, would make rather more sense. Egypt, well, would do well to go through a "cure."
 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:13 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Econ model for democracy survival

While the author's scepticism re the utility of the modelling is well advised, the two main countries chances as modelled sound right: Economic Growth and the Survival of New Democracies « Dart-Throwing Chimp

I’ll wrap this post up by going back to where we started, namely, the Middle East after the “Arab awakening.” Even though GDP growth doesn’t contribute much to it, the model’s overall performance isn’t bad. After looking at those ROC curves, I wondered what the model would say about the prospects for the survival of new democracies in three Arab countries on the cusp of new tries at democracy: Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Of the three, only Tunisia would already qualify as democratic by my definition, but Egypt and Libya are both in the midst of transitions from authoritarian rule that could put them over the threshold soon. So I took the IMF’s latest projections of their growth rates and plugged them into the model, along with recent data on their levels of economic development and my best guess as to whether or not they would qualify as acutely polarized according to the data set I used for that indicator. Here’s what came back as estimates of the probability that each of those new democracies would make it to their sixth birthday, assuming that, of the three, only Tunisia would not qualify as acutely polarized:

Tunisia: 82%
Egypt: 48%

Egypt is quite screwed.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 02, 2011

Washington Post tells Arab Spring to "Just Do It" with the Elections

Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post, basing herself on initial elections in post communist Poland apparently working to move democracy forward despite flaws, says that the lack of fully functional electoral procedures shouldn't delay getting people as a whole into the process of participation. Otherwise the old regimes' allies and like-minded in the state will reassert themselves or start a new despotism afresh.

Continue reading "Washington Post tells Arab Spring to "Just Do It" with the Elections"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 10, 2011

October Date Set for Tunisian Elections

It looks like it's official. Tunisian constitutional assembly ("Constituent Assembly") elections will be held in October, back from the initial July set date. October 23 to be exact.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 10, 2011

Tremors in Tunisia?

Curfews, demonstrations, crackdowns, dismissals of key figures, speculation on a coup, etc. in the birthplace of the Arab Spring, and it's not even summer yet. But maybe it's just the ups and downs of seasonal growth.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:29 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

April 20, 2011

Carnegie + W Bank on NA and EU: True, False, Nuanced, Well-known?

Soliciting the experts regardng these summary statements via Carnegie and World Bank, below. Basic fact, nuanced, fundamentally off? I go with #1, but just confirming.

Continue reading "Carnegie + W Bank on NA and EU: True, False, Nuanced, Well-known?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 22, 2011

Non binaries: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War?

The NY Times poses this burning question: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War? - NYTimes.com Well, it's not an either or, now is it?

A bit unfair perhaps, but I find the answer to their question:

Is the battle for Libya the clash of a brutal dictator against a democratic opposition, or is it fundamentally a tribal civil war?

To be "Yes."

Or more shortly, it is clearly not just a tribal civil war, although it could evolve in that direction, but neither is the opposition abstract democrats. They oppose Qadhdhafi (an eminently sensible position regardless of one's politics). After that....

“It is a very important question that is terribly near impossible to answer,” said Paul Sullivan, a political scientist at Georgetown University who has studied Libya. “It could be a very big surprise when Qaddafi leaves and we find out who we are really dealing with.”

Well, I shouldn't think it is a surprise as such. One is dealing with a chaotic melange of people who hate Qadhdhafi, which as reflected in even the wider Arab public's response, is "pretty much anyone of any political flavour, excepting only those people directly supported and/or related to him."

Of course saying he only has mercenaries, as I have noted in passing on several occasions, is a wee bit too simple. His support is more fundamentally of a tribal logic.

Returning to the opposition, there are clearly some nasty people there, ex-regime figures who are not particularly wonderful folks, Islamists of a quasi-Takfiri inclination, etc.

I'd hazard the opinion that there are precious few liberal democratic types in Libya, so expecting a Liberal Democratic Revolution is the height of idiocy.

Nevertheless, insofar as Qadhdhafi unleashed hell in response to the demonstrations, and the Eggs of Stability are already broken, one has to move forward with that reality (this in contrast with the Iraq situation, where Bush ibn Bush willfully and with precious little understanding, started breaking eggs - an active choice).

The behavior of the fledgling rebel government in Benghazi so far offers few clues to the rebels’ true nature.

Errr, no. It offers lots of clues. First of which, they're not a unitary movement, second of which they don't have a "True Nature" in a unitary sense, and that this chaotic mix can go in a lot of different directions - probably bad directions but certainly bad directions if there is no countervailing influence.

Further to that, I find this sort of writing just strange (although after typing that I stopped to think, well, the Journo needs to convey that the heroic image of the freedom fighter and the credence given by many to the claims out of the Rebellion, needs, ahem, some nauncing):

Like the Qaddafi government, the operation around the rebel council is rife with family ties. And like the chiefs of the Libyan state news media, the rebels feel no loyalty to the truth in shaping their propaganda, claiming nonexistent battlefield victories, asserting they were still fighting in a key city days after it fell to Qaddafi forces, and making vastly inflated claims of his barbaric behavior.

Marhaben il Libya, bled al Jamahiriyah.

Let's just say that nothing about Libyan political culture over the past 50 years has built anything like objectivity into public discourse (if I may engage in moderate understatement).

As to the notes on violence, this is in fact a good thing to highlight:

In the neighborhoods of the capital that have staged major peaceful protests against Colonel Qaddafi, many have volunteered — speaking on the condition of anonymity — that their demonstrations were nonviolent mainly because they could not obtain weapons fast enough.

Even one religious leader associated with Sufism — a traditionally pacifist sect something like the Islamic equivalent of the Quakers — lamented his own tribe’s lack of guns for the fight.

That stands in sharp contrast to Libya’s neighbors, Tunisia and Egypt. In Egypt, in particular, the young leaders of the revolution were so seized with an ethic of nonviolence that in the middle of winning a battle of thrown stones against a loyalist mob, two young protesters said they believed they had lost, simply because they had resorted to violence.

Emphasis added.
Sufism is not a pacifist sect like the Quakers. It's not even a "sect" - it is an approach to worship, like Charismatics in Christianity.

I have no idea why Westerners can't get it fucking right re Sufism. It appears that pacifist quasi Quaker stuff sold by Indian Swamis in the 1960s can't be removed from English speaking consciousness.

Aside from that, the contrast with Tunisia and Egypt is correct: Egypt and Tunisia are relatively modernized societies, Tunisia more than Egypt, and

Of course expecting Non Violence to be a preferred methodology (this reminds me of Andrew Sullivan's idiocy a few days ago on this subject) in the face of The Guide, who rather obviously has few compunctions about violence, is more than a bit precious.

Continue reading "Non binaries: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:53 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

March 20, 2011

And Morocco, the quasi exception

As reported by RFI, The '20 Feb' movement is supposed to hold large demos for more change in Morocco today, w/o license.
 
Pushing ahead despite the Royal announcement of constitutional reforms. Overall, I don't see the Moroccan protest movement having the depth or breadth of support of either Egypt or Tunisia. In talking to people - middle class colleagues and friends - I heard a degree of scepticism with numbers giving credit to the position of the Government (as disseminated informally) that the Movement is being manipulated by " The Ikhouan" and indicating Moroccans should wait to see what the actual proposals on constitutional reform look like (although everyone seems agreed the PM has to go).  The manipulation line seems a bit much, although there isn't a doubt that the Moroccan salafist movement makes up a good part of the organized protest party, along the hard left.

I have rather a lot of work, but perhaps I can wander out and look around if I get tired of labouring through the weekend. My room isn't far from the major protest.

In any case, Morocco is lucky that the present king moved on relatively substantial (for the region) reform. Had he not broken in a very public and fairly substantial way with his father's practices, Morocco would have exploded. As it is, the 20 Feb movement has some utility in concentrating the minds of the Palace in Rabat on not listening to the arguments that it's time for a pause. The Royal system, if it undertakes a reasonable degree of democratisation as promised, such as boosting the parties and an elected PM, has a decent chance to come out of 2011 smelling like roses. But decent chance is not fait accompli.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 10, 2011

Royal Moroccan Reforms

I actually caught this on the Sats last night. Have to say M6 looked unhealthy, but a decent enough speech all in all, one does come to appreciate his relative brevity and focus after the blowhard performances of the Ben Ali, Mubarek and the like. It's also a nice reflexion on focus (it isn't a Royal habit to be making lots of speeches, saves it up for when it counts)

Some thoughts: First, from my POV, proof is in the implementation pudding, but at least the high-level declarations re constitutional change in implementing an elected rather than royally appointed PM seem helpful. A selection of items from the wires
Moroccan king pledges reforms as neighbors battle uprisings - CNN.com

The Moroccan king has pledged sweeping constitutional reforms as neighboring nations face violent uprisings demanding more democracy.

In a rare television appearance on Wednesday, King Mohamed VI said the reforms would include a prime minister elected from the party that wins the most seats in parliament.

The prime minister will "be the head of an effective executive branch, who is fully responsible for government, civil service and the implementation of the government's agenda," the king said.

Reforms will also promote human rights and gender equality, and improve the economic, social and cultural aspects, according to the king.

He highlighted seven key elements of his constitutional amendments. They include expanded collective and individual freedoms, an elevated judiciary, a stronger emphasis on democracy and a parliament drawn from free and fair elections.

It's worth noting that M6 had promised (and in fact followed through) to appoint the last PM on the basis of the elections. Unfortun. that person turned out to be a total dud (even allowing for the limited margin of maneuver he had).

Judicial independence, if effective, would be a very useful development. The free and fair elections, I am rather more doubtful on, but one has to start working on political culture some time, so...

In any case, Morocco is relatively ahead of the curve as compared with the Neighbourhood.

Continue reading "Royal Moroccan Reforms"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:52 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 04, 2011

Egypt & Sectarian Violence: The Deep Security State

First, Kudos to Reason for picking this up, since it is otherwise being ignored. The Muslim extremist narrative is a fun and simple one. It gets nastier, however. Knowing Egypt, I give much credence to the accusations that - vaguely similar to apparently well-founded accusations in Algeria that a portion [not all, a portion, 25%? More? Less No one will ever know] of 'religious' violence is linked to manipulation of the security state:

Was the Mubarak Regime Complicit in Egypt's Sectarian Violence? - Hit & Run : Reason Magazine

The last year of the Hosni Mubarak regime was, according to The New York Times, "the bloodiest year in four decades of sectarian tensions in Egypt." Bookended by two attacks on Coptic churches in a country with a sizeable Christian minority, the year of bloodshed reinforced the idea that only a strongman could prevent Islamic fundamentalism from overrunning the Arab world's largest country.

But shortly before the Egyptian military moved against the Mubarak regime, Al Arabiya television reported allegations that the Egyptian government, not content with fighting actual Islamists, may have invented some of its own enemies. An official government probe is looking into reports that the New Year's Eve church bombing in Alexandria, initially blamed on Al-Qaeda, might actually have been perpetrated by the Egyptian government, with the intention of gaining sympathy and support from the West. The Saudi-backed TV station—founded as a moderate alternative to Al Jazeera, and host to Barack Obama's first formal interview as president in January 2009—also reported that British diplomats believe Egyptian Interior Minister Habib el-Adly had a whole department dedicated to these sorts of operations:

Emphasis added.

First, on the Italics emphasis: Founded as a moderate alternative!!?!? Reason write lapped up propaganda here. Rather founded out of Saudi annoyance at Jazeera criticism of themselves.

Second, the Interior Ministry accusation I can credit - of course that does not mean that all religious violence, discrimination against Copts and the like is due to Interior. Rather it suggests Interior probably exploited a real problem for its own agenda. I have long viewed, however, such violence and tension in Egypt as a symptom rather than a fundamental. Diminishing space, economic opportunity and a critical sense of desperation and fighitng over crumbs are the fundamental drivers.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:08 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 02, 2011

Corvée noire: Guide's 'Mercenaries'

This is not surprising behaviour from The Guide

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1627: The BBC's Hausa service has spoken to Niger nationals fleeing Libya. They said there are widespread reports of people from sub-saharan Africa being arrested.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1632: Disturbingly, the Niger nationals said those people arrested are being made to choose between joining Col Gaddafi's army or being killed.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1537: People from Niger who have fled Libya tell BBC Hausa that there have been widespread arrests of sub-Saharan Africans. They say they are being forced to either join Col Gaddafi's forces or be killed.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Libya, cautionary notes re Qaddafi 'irrationality'

This note from NY Times is quite good (and sums up similar evals I have been seeing): Even a Weakened Qaddafi May Be Hard to Dislodge - NYTimes.com

Although it is fun to call The Guide a mad man and mock his sanity, it's important not to miss the signs that for all his flamboyance and eccentricity, he is neither stupid nor per se delusional (i.e. à la Hitler moving imaginary units as reported re his behaviour behind closed doors). Talking up things grandiosely in public should not be confused with private, behind doors behaviour:

But Colonel Qaddafi retains significant strength, Mr. Joshi said. He is thought to still control the air force, though some elements have defected. And while there have been clashes in Tripoli, with sniper and small-arms fire in areas of the capital, “it is not a war zone and not a city in rebellion,” he said.

While the colonel is thought to be delusional, he and his commanders have proved capable so far of using their forces with some care, Mr. Joshi said. “There have been no large massacres, air power is being used in a calculated way and he is launching probing attacks” while “making constant efforts in the suburbs of Tripoli to check small gestures of dissent.”

The struggle in Libya “could go on a long time,” Mr. Joshi said. “Tripoli is not a bunker. And this is not the decision-making of a man totally out of touch with reality.”

Emphasis added.
I have certainly already given my estimation to the people who pay me very good money for such that planning should be for months of fighting, i.e. no quick reprise of economic (business) activity.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:17 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

On Transitions, an Asian reflexion

A very interesting note, Lessons for the Mideast from Asia's Revolutions - Council on Foreign Relations that has some interesting points of reflection:

Continue reading "On Transitions, an Asian reflexion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 01, 2011

Is Egypt's military turning against the revolution

An extremely silly question.

Is Egypt's Military Turning Against the Revolution? - Eric Trager - International - The Atlantic

Is Egypt's Military Turning Against the Revolution?

Of course not. They were never with it. 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 28, 2011

Libyan Berbers Revolt

Not in any way surprising, given Qadhdhafi's repression of Berbers: Libya's Berbers join the revolution in fight to reclaim ancient identity | World news | The Guardian

Libya's Berbers join the revolution in fight to reclaim ancient identity

Mountain tribes in the west, also called Amazigh, unite with opposition after decades of Gaddafi repressing their identity

Qadhdhafi's senseless repression of Berbers always has puzzled me, however. 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:00 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

February 27, 2011

Guide Libyan Mercenaries Profile

A very useful and insightful article from The Telegraph, it confirms Qadhdhafi did in fact bring in mercenaries from Chad, although given the story told by a young one, it is reasonable to presume there were bait & switch going on:

African mercenaries in Libya nervously await their fate - Telegraph

African mercenaries in Libya nervously await their fate
Mercenaries captured in Libya are facing an uncertain future, writes Nick Meo in Al-Bayda.

Nevertheless, as the article notes there are elements still out there, the return to stability after The Guide is killed - that seems certain - is a far from certain thing.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:45 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Tunisian PM resigns, more protest deaths

While I am not per se favourable to Ghannouchi, I am worried by

Police Break Up Demonstrations in Tunis | Africa | English

Tunisia's interim Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi has announced his resignation, saying he hopes it will "help his successor work to solve the country's problems." The resignation was announced as police clashed with protesters, a day after three people were killed in anti-government protests.

While the desire to "cleanse" the government of anyone associated with Ben Ali is an understandable one, it is not - as Iraq showed - necessarily a good one in the short term. The technocrats with a mastery of issues, etc. are needed to help transition things, and further if all the people associated with Ben Ali are unceremoniously excluded, the options of destabilisation begins to look better for them.

Most of the issues Tunisia faces are ones needing long-term effort, removing faces is not going to create jobs, solve corruption nor allow policy stability to get the economy restarted. NOR will it allow the opposition to build proper political networks.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:56 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 26, 2011

Africans & Libya, Mercenaries

An interesting comment to highlight

Live Blog - Libya Feb 26 | Al Jazeera Blogs

7:05pm

AJE correspondent reports that anti-government protesters have attacked black Africans in Libya, taking them for mercenaries.

Seidou Boubaker Jallou and his friend, both from Mali, fled for their lives by night to the Tunisian border. They said the roads out of the West are still in the hands of those loyal to Gaddafi. Jallou says:

The situation is very dangerous - every day there are more than a hundred who die - every day - every day there are shootings - the most dangerous situation is for foreigners like us - and also us black people - Because Gaddafi brought soldiers from Chad from Niger - they are black and they are killing Arabs.

Certainly if you're a Chadian exile from the Libyan-Chad wars days, and you're fighting for The Guide, you probably are going to stick it, since otherwise you're toast (and not welcome at home either).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Tunisia, Protesting Disease

Libya in crisis – live coverage | World news | guardian.co.uk

I'm growing concerned that the Tunisian case can go seriously sideways. I fail to see how bringing down Ghannouchi helps. Now is the time to monitor and to prepare. Changing faces in an interim regime does not solve much. Organising proper parties, political networks. Change forced by demonstration is only a good thing as a very extraordinary measure.

Three people have been killed in clashes between Tunisian security forces and youths rioting in central Tunis, an interior ministry official told Reuters.

The official, who declined to be named, said another 12 had been injured in the clashes, which he said occurred after a riot orchestrated by loyalists of ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. He said about 100 people had been arrested.

"Those who were arrested have admitted they were pushed by former Ben Ali officials," he said. "Others said they were paid to do it."

A Reuters witness had earlier seen Tunisian soldiers fire into the air and use tear gas in an effort to disperse dozens of youths, many carrying sticks, who were breaking shop windows near Tunis's Barcelona Station

The claims of Ben Ali agents provocateurs can't be dismissed out of hand, but is a bit pat.

More from French sources, which give more detail and suggest perhaps by timing and behaviour that the agent provacteur thesis is not unfounded - but could as well suggest that the slum hooligan profile exploiting the situation:

Continue reading "Tunisia, Protesting Disease"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:24 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

February 25, 2011

Tunisia, Don't forget Tunisia.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Don't Forget Tunisia
25 Feb 2011 05:19 pm

J. Scott Carpenter says it is "going to need help from the international community - and a lot of it":

If Tunisia doesn't succeed, no other country in the region can. Tunisia's 10 million inhabitants do not suffer the ethnic and sectarian divisions that bedevil many of their neighbors. Tunisians are well educated and largely middle class -- 80 percent own their own homes. Nearly all Tunisians practice the same form of moderate Islam. The populace looks to Europe for its economic and political inspiration. The cry Tunisians made famous around the world during their revolution, "Dégage!" (Get out!), is tellingly in French, not Arabic.

The underlying article is good, but the emphasized parts are annoying. Just because someone speaks French or English well doesn't mean moderation. Tedious condensation that (doubtless the writer, a former State person, was a francophone). Same re "moderate Islam" - I understand why it has to be said in these articles but really it gets tiresome.

Let me suggest an alternative, "the ordinary, non-extremist Islam of most of the Islamic world..." - excepting the seriously retarded places, (AfPak, Gulf).

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:12 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Egypt: Surprise Surprise, plus ça change...

As the French saying goes, "plus ça change..."

Gaddafi defiant amid Libya turmoil – live | World news | guardian.co.uk

9pm GMT: The Guardian's Jack Shenker reports from Cairo on another massive demonstration there and increased unease at the country's military rulers:

Jack Shenker

After a major rally in Tahrir Square to mark the one-month anniversary of the 25 January protests that launched Egypt's revolution, several hundred demonstrators are now camping outside parliament in an effort to force out Ahmed Shafiq, an old member of the Mubarak-era cabinet who has improbably clung on to the post of prime minister in the aftermath of Mubarak's departure.

General public frustration towards the remnants of the Mubarak regime - and the ruling Supreme Military Council's apparent unwillingness to remove them - is beginning to crystallise, and Shafiq is the most visible target.

Earlier this evening there were clashes outside the parliament building between protesters and the army, and stories of activists being tortured at the hands of military police are circulating.

Although many have been suspicious of the armed forces' intentions from the moment Mubarak stepped down, today marks a real escalation in the strength of public sentiment against the way Egypt's "transition period" is being handled by the generals, whom many want to see pushed aside in favour of a civilian cabinet.

"The army is acting with the same unaccountable violence against civilians as the police force did," warned one activist on Twitter.

Emphasis added.
It is dawning on the protesters / opposition that the departure of Mubarek was more a sleight of hand by the system than an actual change.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:21 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

MENA Unrest: Moroccan Fruits

Taking our eyes off of the carnage in Libya and what I believe to be the beginnings of a civil war there, a quick note on Morocco. The local press reported this a.m. rumours that the current prime minister and his government are likely to be booted. There are rumours flying around about what will happen. I heard from a very good friend of mine with Palace connections, direct ones, that the decision is already made, the Abbas El Fassi government is toast. The only question is who in the ministries are getting replaced and who are not.

Continue reading "MENA Unrest: Moroccan Fruits"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 23, 2011

Jamahiri-ism Blowback:

An interesting hypothesis re The Guide's popular committees habit actually having some blowback for him in providing institutions for popular revolt - the real kind.

Blog - The Arabist

Reports from liberated east Libyan cities suggest an impressive level of organization on the part of the populace, with most basic urban functions up and running. One wonders if Qaddafi's ideosyncratic jamahiriyan ideology, roping people into participating in rubber-stamp "Basic People's Congresses" to create a facade of direct democracy, has in fact formed the provided the institutional template for a countrywide insurrection against him.

Intriguing propo, not sure if it will stand up, but interesting. 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:54 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 21, 2011

Et on Morocco

The violence that broke out in the Moroccan demonstrations seems to me to be connected with two things.

First, copy-catism among some of the "Youth"(teenagers) who've been watching this stuff on TV and it sees fun.
Second, Endemic hooliganism among the Bidonville (slums) youth, who are always dangerous as the full-out deployment of police and military every time there is a major football match indicates.

Morocco riots leave five dead | World news | guardian.co.uk

Protest organisers condemned the rioting and looting that followed the demonstrations, blaming it on thugs and football hooligans returning from matches.

While the mostly middle-class pro-democracy protesters had pledged to remain peaceful, there were warnings before the marches that the real tinderbox in Morocco lay in the poverty-stricken outer suburbs of the cities, where many of Sunday's rioters are thought to live.

...

Interior minister Taeib Cherqaoui said 128 people had been injured on Sunday, mostly police officers. A further 120 people were detained. He said "troublemakers" had vandalised dozens of public buildings, shops and banks.

Tangier, Larache, Marrakech, Sefrou, Tetouan and Guelmim suffered the worst violence, with a total of 33 public buildings being attacked or set on fire.

Cherqaoui said the demonstrations themselves had been peaceful, calling them an example of "the healthy practise of the freedom of expression".

It is no surprise the main violence is in these particularly disfavoured cities (ex Marrakech which is not disfavoured, but which has become insanely expensive and oulad el bled - the locals - feel marginalised / squeezed out by chichi Euros buying properties, etc)., The Moroccan government seems to be taking a very smart and adult line on this.

There is need for reform to political process and addressing equality of opportunity (attacking Oligarchism) in the near term, but I don't see Morocco as a tinderbox. Hopefully the Gov will use this as an excuse to reactivate lagging political and economic liberalization.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Libya, the descent

The information out of Libya is chaotic, unreliable and disturbing. What can only be concluded is that the Guide's regime is hanging on by the slimmest threads, but that the Qadhdhafi clan know that, and they know that if they go, they personally will likely die unpleasantly. So their solution: unleash hell.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1556: Two Libyan fighter jets have landed unexpectedly in Malta, witnesses say. The Mirage jets were seen landing at Malta's international airport on Monday afternoon. The Maltese foreign ministry said it was trying to establish why the planes had landed.

Dozens reported killed in Tripoli unrest | Top News | Reuters

In signs of disagreement inside Libya's ruling elite, the justice minister resigned in protest at the "excessive use of violence" against protesters.

Libya's ambassador to India told the BBC he was resigning in protest at the violent crackdown

It said security forces were looting banks and other government institutions in Tripoli, and protesters had broken into several police stations and wrecked them.

A Reuters reporter in Tripoli said residents were stocking up on essential goods, apparently in anticipation of new clashes after nightfall. There were long queues at food shops and long lines of cars at fuel stations.

Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam Gaddafi appeared on national television in an attempt both to threaten and to calm people, saying the army would enforce security at any price to put down one of the bloodiest revolts to convulse the Arab world.

"We will keep fighting until the last man standing, even to the last woman standing," he said on Sunday.

In the eastern city of Benghazi, protesters appeared to be largely in control after forcing troops and police to retreat to a compound. Government buildings were set ablaze and ransacked.

"Youths with weapons are in charge of the city. There are no security forces anywhere," University of Benghazi professor Hanaa Elgallal told Al Jazeera International television.

Salahuddin Abdullah, a self-described protest organiser, said: "In Benghazi there is celebration and euphoria ... The city is no longer under military control. It is completely under demonstrators' control."

There were reports that soldiers who refused to fire on civilians were executed by commanding officers in Benghazi.

Après moi, le deluge.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:22 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 20, 2011

Libya: Dancing by The Grave (but whose end game?)

Only 48 hours ago if someone had asked me could the Guide fall I would have said, "not bloody likely." Now I am not sure at all.

Live Blog - Libya | Al Jazeera Blogs

12:11 am: Libya's ambassador to China, Hussein Sadiq al Musrati, has just resigned on air with Al Jazeera Arabic. He called on the army to intervene, and has called all diplomatic staff to resign.

He made claims about a gunfight between Gaddafi's sons and also claimed that Gaddafi may have left Libya. Al Jazeera has no confirmation of these claims.

11:25 pm Online reports claim remaining pro-Gaddafi militia in Benghazi, around the Elfedeel Bu Omar compound, "are being butchered by angry mobs". It is impossible to verify the claims, though Al Jazeera has spoken with several people in the city who say protesters control the city, as security forces flee to the airport.

However, I believe that Qadhdhafi and the people close to his system are going to have every reason in the world to fight savagely for their position as I don't think a negotiated solution or a light resolution is possible given they went the Full Qadhdhafi.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Libya, The Revolt of the East & The Guide takes the Chinese option

The Libyan situation rather smells like civil war, and that between regions.

Middle East protests - LIVE | News | guardian.co.uk

10.30am Libya:
This news report from Al-Jazeera shows chaotic scenes in Libya's north-eastern city of Benghazi. Anti-government protesters appear to have set fire to a security building and there are pictures of some making off with weapons - including an artillery round

12.01pm Libya:

Associated Press is reporting that the death toll is Benghazi may be much higher than the estimate from Human Rights Watch (which they had called "conservative").

A doctor in the Libyan city of Benghazi says his hospital has seen the bodies of at least 200 protesters killed by Moammar Gadhafi's forces over the last few days. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he fears reprisal.
Witnesses told AP that a mixture of special commandos, foreign mercenaries and Gadhafi loyalists went after demonstrators on Saturday with knives, assault rifles and heavy-caliber weapons.

Continue reading "Libya, The Revolt of the East & The Guide takes the Chinese option"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:42 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 18, 2011

Bahrain's Monarchy is flagrantly stupid

First, the bloody repression they launched seems to me to have been mostly unnecessary and just plain idiocy - unless they are willing to go the full Qadhdhafi. Of course doing so would fuck their aspirations as a banking and commerce centre right into a cocked hat.

This note from BBC on Nicholas Kristof is quite on:
BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1023: Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times tells the BBC World Service that he has heard Bahrain's royal family is unhappy with his reporting: "I've heard that through the PR firms that they hire. There is apparently a campaign to get me fired - I don't really know how they're going to proceed with that. Most remarkably, one member of the royal family tweeted that I am supplying weapons to outlaws and that I have ties to Hezbollah. To me this was a reflection of the completely delusional world in which the government lives. The government does not want reporters here... This is a wealthy country, it's cosmopolitan, it's well-educated, it's a banking centre. And then they have this thuggish behaviour, with police sent in firing on people, crowds. It is astonishing and it breaks your heart."

Presuming Kristof is correctly reporting the Royal Tweets (to be taken with a grain of salt, as of course a Tweet I am not sure is confirmable as to source, etc), that is indeed delusional. It does seem in keeping with the style of response. But the response really makes no sense given Bahrain's aspirations.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:05 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

February 17, 2011

Libya: The Guide & The Expected Return (Iron Fist)

There is not much surprise in this report:FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Libya crushes ‘day of anger’ efforts

Libya crushes ‘day of anger’ efforts Libyan security forces arrested activists and clashed with protesters on Thursday as Muammar Gaddafi’s regime cracked down on efforts to organise a “day of anger” on the back of uprisings that forced the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents from office.

Activists and human rights officials said protesters and security forces clashed in Benghazi, the oil-rich nation’s second city, and Al-Bayda, the scene of violence the previous night.

Tripoli, the capital of the oil-rich nation, appeared calm as several hundred supporters of Mr Gaddafi, who has ruled Libya since 1969, held a demonstration in the centre of the city.

“There were clearly attempts to demonstrate in Benghazi and al-Bayda since this morning and there have been arrests since last night,” said Heba Morayef, North Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch. “What we have seen in the last couple of days is a crackdown on peaceful protestors though arrests, beatings, tear gas, and in Al-Bayda, live fire.”

Doubtless The Guide can suppress opposition through flagrant violence, although probably damaging his long-run transition stability (Saif?) and possibly seeing his new western friends (mmmm I resemble that remark) scared off.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 11, 2011

The Supreme Council & Communique No. X:

Interesting observations from Brian Whitaker:

Mubarak teases Egypt as his regime fragments | Brian Whitaker | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

There is also the mysterious business of the ominously titled "Communique Number One" from the supreme council of the armed forces saying that the military has begun taking "necessary measures to protect the nation" and "support the legitimate demands of the people".

What exactly does that mean, and how does it relate to Mubarak's non-resignation speech? Indeed, why did Mubarak need to make a speech at all if he is not resigning?

According to reports, the supreme council has met only three times in its history: in 1967 and 1973 (when the country was at war) – and on Thursday. Thursday's meeting was held without its chairman, Mubarak, and apparently the meeting was adjourned without formally concluding. A second communique has failed to clarify the army's position.

I remain convinced that the Mamlouks are simply manoeuvring.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 08, 2011

Is Yemen better suited for politcal reform than Egypt or Tunisia

Ahem.... A serious article. I guess it all depends on what one thinks of political reform.

Is Yemen Better Suited for Reform Than Egypt or Tunisia? - Joshua Foust - International - The Atlantic

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Social Media v Older Islamist Revolutions: Discuss

Propositions. Discuss. Refute, modify, or support premises or conclusion: Dictators in largely Muslim countries have evoked Islamist-oriented rebellions/dissent in part because they repressed all forums of public gathering except the mosque (exception Enver Hoxha: he took out the mosque). Nowadays, a new form of gathering space has emerged via the internet, social media, etc. This was not repressed in part because the repressive apparatus didn't understand it (older generation) and also they saw it more as a pressure escape valve. Now the users of such media are far less likely to be the traditional types that were lured to Islamism and thus the outbreaks of today are biased towards cosmopolitans with a preference for the concept of a liberal forum of ideas and social pluralism. Discuss.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 06, 2011

The Revolution, So Far

Burgeoning political science academic with an urban planning/space expertise* blogger Colorless Revolution gives colorful reflections from on the scene -- and more recently away from the scene -- of the Egyptian uprising. In entries from over several days, he discusses where it may go and not go, and what it may need to do. The whole series is worth reading in full, but some excerpts (not necessarily in chronological order) are below. (The questions appearing above each section are our own captions, not his). Side irrelevant pondering: are urban planners just a bunch of Squares?

* Corrected from earlier misidentification as a full-fledged urban planner.

Continue reading "The Revolution, So Far"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 04, 2011

Best Quote So Far -- From Egypt's new PM

Originally from CNN:

[Egyptian Prime Minister] Ahmed Shafiq, . . . appealed to his compatriots, especially Egypt's youth, to show patience . . . "It has great meaning not to hurt each other*, [or] hurt our reputation," he said. "Do they want what happened in Tunisia to happen here?"

Meanwhile, my proposed ten day rule of street revolutions faces the big test.

Continue reading "Best Quote So Far -- From Egypt's new PM"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:34 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 03, 2011

Retrospective on the Progression of Riots in Tunisia

The way riots spread from rural Tunisia to urban Tunisia was through rural exodus and timing coincidence. The details about what occured when exactly vary according to versions - but they generally involve repression during a market day. The most likely version is that Bouazizi's immolation, or his relatives' angry reaction against the administration, would have happened then.

That is, when his relatives started throwing rocks at the police station and/or the governorate and/or the town hall buildings, police reacted with their usual violence, and that further angered the people in the market. Snowball effect to nearby towns and then to the usual unrestive interior and southern Tunisia. Center-coastal (the usual source of the ruling and economic elite) and North (center of power with Tunis) joined only later, when the relatives of interior and southern Tunisians who moved to the capital for economic reasons reacted. They started rioting against the police because of the repression going on in their villages, building up from a few incidents in some working class neighbourhoods of Tunis to a widespread movement.

Continue reading "Retrospective on the Progression of Riots in Tunisia"

Posted by Shaheen at 12:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Harper's Interpretation of Canadian Immigration Law

1) Said Jaziri, professional idiot, cromanion imam, lawful permanent resident, Canadian family, risking torture under the Ben Ali regime. Deported.

2) Belhassen Trabelsi, psychopath, godfather at the top of a totalitarian state, searched by Interpol, came to Canada one week ago. Difficult to deport.

Posted by Shaheen at 11:26 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?

A very short answer, only in the delusional imaginations of certain Americans.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?
08 Feb 2011 05:19 pm

by Conor Friedersdorf

Above Mickey Kaus surmises yes, and Bob Wright forcefully insists no. On this one, I agree with Bob, and I've never understood why seeing the United States military invade a country and establish a democracy would inspire revolutions elsewhere. It was never ignorance of democracy's existence that was stopping other Arab populations from rising up – and it isn't as if "get invaded by America" was a viable strategy or a desired thing elsewhere.

 

 

Continue reading "Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:21 AM | Comments (0)

February 02, 2011

The Shame of Tuesday: Cairo & The Grave

I entitled my thread at Giraffe Boards The Mubarek Denouement: Egypt dances past the grave thinking I was being wryly amusing.

That turns out not to have been the case. As I started reflecting in that thread, I have been suspecting for several days now - based not only on following the news but things I have heard from friends in region who ... well have a reason to know such information that Mubarek had sworn not do as Ben Ali.

Today's events, after some hope on Tuesday that something could move, showed that Mubarek & Co. believe that they can bluster their way through this, and that their analysis of Ben Ali - he was cowardly, his nerve cracked - is driving them to drive Egypt towards the abyss.

Repeating from the Thread's last post.

Emphasis added.

Returning to my sceptical analysis of weeks back, I do feel I was right in that the Mubarek system has deeper roots than Ben Ali, and there are more people with more to lose if he goes. That opens the door to the Chinese option, although that US$1bn might slightly counteract.

A comment in the same vein by Richard Spencer of the Telegraph:

What I fear here is that Mubarek et al are generating a situation where neither they nor the moderate protesters come out whole, and that in fact he is preparing the ground for an extreme end of the Ikhouan.

This in contrast with Ben Ali, as my wife said, we are just now appreciating what he spared Tunisia.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 01, 2011

Americans Smarter Than Canadians About Egypt?

I know that among you sophisticated international typesCanadians, among others, are supposed to be smarter than Us Dumbo ‘mericans. But this comment in an AP story on foreigners evacuating Egypt makes me wonder. I’ve deleted the individual’s name because I am not singling him out personally, especially as there are apparently 34 other Maple Leaferssimilarly, um, unperceptive. But is this an example of how out of touch expert resident expats are about Egypt?

"We did not see the protests coming. All of us have been surprised," said . . . the deputy head of the Canadian International School in Cairo, who left Egypt along with 34 of his colleagues

Continue reading "Americans Smarter Than Canadians About Egypt?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:50 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

January 30, 2011

Rached Ghannouchi Returns to Tunisia (with rant on Anti-Islamist Panic)

Exiled Ennahda party leader Rached Ghannouchi was received by enthusiastic crowd when his plane landed. Given that he is somewhat of an Islamist, apparenlty his presence doesn't count as a step towards True Democracy, in the proposals of Robert Satloff, who wants the US to sponsor a new wave of Arab democratic government which would, apparently, not allow any non-secular or at least Islamist party to participate. In other words, the same thing all over again, a Ben Ali, only with multiple parties. Rant below, on anti-Islamist Panic.

Continue reading "Rached Ghannouchi Returns to Tunisia (with rant on Anti-Islamist Panic)"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

A Ten Day Rule for Revolutions?

Ten Days That Shook The World was American Communist John Reed’s account of the street politics of ten days in 1917 when the relatively liberal regime of the newly Tsar-poor Russia, led by Alexander Kerensky, was overthrown by the Bolshevik Leninist nightmare. (Not all revolutions are good.) But could there be a certain magic number to ten days in determining a regime change from street action? See below.

Continue reading "A Ten Day Rule for Revolutions?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:21 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 29, 2011

Late notes on Tunisia

One of the interesting signs of maturity in this revolution was the self-organizing of neighbourhood watches to protect against the ex-Republican Guards turned looting psychopathic militias.

Continue reading "Late notes on Tunisia"

Posted by Shaheen at 03:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Error 404 -- Far East of Suez

Concern about fallout from Egypt's public uprising spreads far.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 06, 2010

Class Demographics Explain Better MENA/Muslim Integration in USA?

The Washington Times, not normally a spurting fountain of Muslim-friendly coverage, praises the relatively successful integration of Muslim immigrants in America when compared to that of Europe. (The newsstory mostly concentrates on inter-faith dialogue, but the broader implication of better relative integration (e.g. “melting pot”) in America comes through loud and clear.) While I do enjoy a nice dose of American exceptionalism, and I do think it may apply here in some ways, let me nevertheless throw out a less nationalistic hypothesis on relative integration levels. I am too lazy and busy to find and crunch the appropriate numbers and surveys to confirm or refute it, but here it is: Could some of the relatively better Muslim/MENA integration in America be simply due to the fact that Muslim immigrants there have tended towards the educated professional and middle class, rather than being a large class of laborers as may be the case in lots of Europe?

Continue reading "Class Demographics Explain Better MENA/Muslim Integration in USA?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:20 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

March 27, 2010

Ongoing Social Vents: Yemen Child Marriage, Saudi Poetess Scolds Muftis, etc.

Molestation Contestation: Yemen Battles Over Child Marriage Laws.

Muftis Get Rapped: Poetess Socks It to the Jeddah Valley PTA. "I have seen evil in the eyes of fatwas. . . barbaric, angry and blind, wearing death as a robe cinched with a belt".

Non-Mideast Non-Muslims Riot Over Non-Danish Video Images. But, but, but,only Muslims get violent when imagery of their sacred founder gets offensive, right? Others never do that, at least these days, right? Occasionally elsewhere too though, theatrical performances can also unite a few Muslims and Christians (see last paragraph) in shared death-threat issuance. This must be what is meant by the unifying power of art. . . .

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 23, 2010

Explaining the Day to Day Mechanism of Popular Anti-Coptic Bigotry in Egypt

Blogger Nadia Elawady relates the ordinary day to day practices of shunning and mythologizing that nurture anti-Coptic prejudice among Egypt's Muslims. " I remember befriending Mariam . . . Quickly my [fellow] Muslim friends explained I could not befriend her. She’s Christian, I was told. So what, I asked. In Egypt, it’s not all right, was the answer. By the end of that same year I had heard my Muslim friends say it was yucky to drink out of a cup a Copt had drank from; they explained that the way to identify a Copt was by their odd smell and their oily hair. . . " One can infer from her post that such things are increasing and are pervasive among the more educated classes.

Continue reading "Explaining the Day to Day Mechanism of Popular Anti-Coptic Bigotry in Egypt"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:34 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 16, 2010

Guy Fakes Salafism in Yemen & Spills the Hummus on the Goings-On (Real and Imputed)

Not exactly a Black Like Me story, but an American a-religious white guy writer sham-converts (or reverts, if one can do that shamically) to a salafi Islam in Yemen to study the natives and non-natives there, including Americans who go over there for Islamic or Arabic education. One was the guy who shot up the Arkansas military base. Aqoulite Shaheen takes down some of the odder generalizations and assumptions of the sham-converter down below in the comments. (A modern tip of the whig to commenter Antiquated Tory for the link at Global Post.)

Continue reading "Guy Fakes Salafism in Yemen & Spills the Hummus on the Goings-On (Real and Imputed)"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:12 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

December 18, 2009

Yglesias on Friedman

I cite this comment in full. It is precisely my feeling. With "friends" like Friedman one hardly needs enemies: Matthew Yglesias » Friedman’s Civil War

Friedman’s Civil War

I think I lack the words to adequately express how morally outrageous Tom Friedman’s call for a Muslim civil war is. But we can at least focus a bit on how factually inaccurate it is.

A couple of days ago, a suicide bombing in Pakistan killed 27. In July, militants hit a Pakistani hotel killing eleven. On December 8 12 were killed in Multan. That same day 100 Iraqis were killed in car bombs. Back in 2006 and 2007 there was regular fighting between Hamas and Fatah in which hundred were killed. And of course there’s ongoing violence in Iraq, in Yemen, in Sudan, and in many other Muslim countries.

Any normal person would conclude the obvious—Muslim-majority countries are suffering from an excess of civil wars most of which have some element of religious overtones. There’s quite a lot of violence and fighting. And it’s bad. People get maimed and killed. Children are turned into orphans. Hospitals and schools and productive infrastructure are destroyed. And while moral culpability for bad acts always adheres primarily to the bad actor, the fact of the matter is that the dominant theme of US foreign policy since 9/11 has been to intensify and exacerbate these conflicts, leading to vast quantities of death, destruction, and displacement.

Of course Friedman, the all knowing moustache, is not a normal person.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 15, 2009

Can't Haq It: Saudi-Israeli Collaboration To Stop Invader Bots

CAPTCHA, those squiggly letters on website and various user-i.d. portals you have to figure out and type in order to access something cybernetic and which ensures you are not a "bot" made out of silicon yourself, has been hacked. To the rescue now is a team so diverse, some have to kill each other if called into belligerent military service. But using 3-D animation and soon presenting in the land of anime, they may yet save us from the diminishing security of having to puzzle out a green angel-hair pasta version of "quetzlcoatl" and then type it in when we forget a password on gmail.

[R]esearchers at Tel Aviv University - part of an international team - have developed a "synthesis technique" to overcome the "bots" by generating images of animated 3-D objects that are detectable by humans but difficult for an automatic algorithm to recognize. The team . . . included colleagues at King Abdullah University in Saudi Arabia, The University of Delhi in India and researchers in Taiwan.... Their findings are being presented this week ... in Yokohama, Japan

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 07, 2009

Egypt's "Reform" experiment... El Baradie & the Mubarek Clan

A sour bit of news to consider re Egypt, but I have to say I am amused by one item re the state press savaging poor El Baradie:
FT.com  Egypt’s media warn ElBaradei off politics 

... the former Egyptian diplomat has now become the target of ferocious attacks in the state press after his name was put forward as a potentially credible candidate for the next presidential poll in 2011.

Worse, Mr ElBaradei first appeared to respond positively to the suggestion. He issued a statement last week saying he would run for president if the constitution was changed to allow all Egyptians to compete and if the election was conducted by a truly independent commission, supervised by international monitors.

Osama Saraya, the editor-in-chief of Al Ahram, the main government newspaper, accused Mr ElBaradei of “bearing a grudge towards his country”, and said he represented foreign interests “opposed to the Egyptian reform experiment”

Emphasis added.
Egyptian reform experiment.... That's pretty funny.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 06, 2009

Morocco hosts wounded Guinean coup leader

A minor if interesting item, FT.com - Wounded Guinea leader flies to Morocco relative to Morocco and Africa.

Wounded Guinea leader flies to Morocco

Guinea’s military ruler left the country for medical treatment on Friday after being shot and wounded by a member of his own presidential guard, officials said.

What is if interest here is a small highlight of Morocco's West African connexions and ambitions, and from the business point of view, where actual current attention flows.

I frequently note, the "guys back east" in the Mashreq (using that to cover everyone from Egypt over) love to count in the Maghreb in their population and GDP pitches for "Arab World" investment, but the economic and cultural reality is that the exchanges are minimal, and little investment flows "West" to the Maghreb. Lack of genuine synergies. The real axis for the Maghreb is North to Europe and South to SS Africa,
especially West Africa where historical and religious ties combine with
a shared colonial heritage and better real economic synergies. (A word of caution then to those reading PPMs back east showing a grand geographic scope of investment...)

I do wonder if Morocco will get close to Camara (who desperately needs to be deposed as he's shown himself to be an ugly loon), or whether they will adopt a more neutral attitude.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 23, 2009

The Color of Monkey: Egyptians Draw A Bead On Haifa

Guardian (UK) angel Nesrine Malik tells of lyrics by an Egyptian writer, sung by sultry songstress Haifa Wehbe, that refer to a child pining for his "Nubian monkey". The term, supposedly referring to a toy, is apparently tied in with long-standing negative color-race attitudes among lighter-skinned Egyptians and other Arabs towards the swath of swarthy Nubians in Egypt's south, and blacks in general. Nubia's bias guardians have requested some sort of legal sanction against the song. The issue brings to rare local public airing the color biases of much of Middle Eastern society, or in Ms Malik's words, the "endemic culture of racial stereotyping in the region ". It apparently also extends to a standard of beauty that elevates a "light-skinned, catty-eyed and slim-nosed" Lebanese look, though the description of the Haifa Wehbe song as "a mindless children's tune sung by an equally vacant performer" does suggest that the term "catty" is not restricted solely to the field of ocular esthetics. (PS -- Just love those commenters below the article at the Guardian. Sheesh.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:53 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 13, 2009

East & West Side Story: Is Beirut Really Back?

Hype, snipe, or just type, o informed ones, about this Levanity fare. What say you to the Beirut toot in Guardian , UK?

It's beautiful, Beirut, beautiful and ugly and pock-marked and damaged and glamorous and unstable and exciting and just a bit mentally unhinged. It's the Elizabeth Taylor of the Mediterranean. Or it would be if you replaced the words "alcohol" with "Israel" and "a string of unsuitable marriages" with "15 years of civil war". . . . Beirut is back.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:40 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

October 26, 2009

Surprising News, Ben Ali gives himself only 89.621111% of vote, reluctantly accepts 5th term

Okay, I made up the 1111 part. Well, just for the entertainment value
Tunisian president wins fifth term in office | International | Reuters

President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali has won a fifth term with 89.62 percent of the vote in Tunisia's presidential election, officials announced on Monday.

One opposition party called Sunday's vote a missed opportunity to make the North African country more democratic, echoing accusations by international human rights groups that the campaign took place in an atmosphere of repression.

Ben Ali, who is 73 and has been in power for 22 years, has rejected those allegations and warned that anyone spreading lies to damage the country's image will be prosecuted.

"It is a matter of pride that the results have confirmed the people's support for President Ben Ali and their trust in him," Interior Minister Rafik Bel Haj Kacem, who oversaw the election, told a news conference at his ministry.

Yup matter of pride. After all, Tunisia could have elected Mr Comb Over for another constitution breaking term, and launched a program to relive the successes (ahem) of 1970s style Arab Socialist Autarky. Just because it worked really well the last time.

Otherwise, sorry for the absence, which was explained on my personal page. Afraid the crisis has finally hit home.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:35 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 25, 2009

No Justice, No Chick-Peas: Lebanon Closes Hummus Gap

Lebanese culinary artistes have outdone their southern neighbor in making the largest ever hummus. No word on the size of the bread needed to dip, but it would certainly have to be one humongous kiloton of pocket bread, which, as we all know, is pita, an Israeli invention.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:06 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 22, 2009

Chinese & Algerians Bis - from Lounsbury comments - Ethnocentrism, Hatreds & Colour

The Moor Next Door (Kal) made an interesting comment in Lounsbury: Algeria & Chinese in Algeria: the riot & fallout with respect to the Chinese & Algerian incident, and also touched on, in passing the

Interestingly, while I'm pretty sure (almost certain) that most Algerians (in Algiers at least) rather hate the black migrants in their midst, the same problem doesn't seem to exist with the Vietnamese in the country. I've never heard anybody complain about them in the way people rail about the Chinese.

First, I second the observation in its entirety, second some thoughts.

On the Chinese, versus say other Asians, one would suspect several factors, prime among them is that the PRC Chinese coming to Africa haven't much of a clue as to the "non PRC" world and behave in Africa / North Africa rather boorishly as a general matter. Without existing and acculturated or savvy communities to guide them, the Big Country egoism comes out. The Vietnamese of course have a rather longer history, and I think generally the Vietnamese Francophone diaspora (even under Socialist auspices) was / is more worldly (or perhaps merely had existing Vietnamese networks from the colonial era to plug into, including the Tirailleur networks from the 1950s).

Leaving aside PRC / Mainlander boorishness, I find the contrast with the sub-Saharan migrants - let's say black migrants that aren't Arabophone interesting. Certainly there is the job-taking angle - and as Aqoul has discussed previously, an unpleasant well of latent colour racism in the Maghreb. Hard to know which is a bigger driver for SSA migrants. For the Chinese, this is without doubt shallower and more economic. I have not had much exposure to Algerian comments on SSA migrants, other than gaining the impression that Algeria may have rather more colour prejudice than Morocco (or a more obvious expression). I also wonder if the Senegalese and to a lesser extent the Malians get a better pass than others. That certainly seems to be the case in Morocco.

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 20, 2009

Lewistful Thinking Reconsidered: A Conversion Narrative

However valuable Bernard Lewis may have been as a historian, his influence on recent academia/military/political thinking vis a vis MENA, has always been horribly worse than useless, but nevertheless quite significant. This account of a former academic disciple's ditching Lewis when encountering reality is worth reading if only to hear that when he encountered reality on the ground "with Bernard Lewis and Samuel Huntington as my guides, I ha[d] no way to make sense of such an encounter."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 17, 2009

Some old controversies: Morocco & Models, and Bloggy overreaction and preciousness

Rooting around I ran across this arty Morocco makes peace with its past. - By Anne Applebaum - Slate Magazine via  Global Voices Online » Morocco: An Alternative to Iran? and the Poor Alternatives - Morocco Board News Service. Intrigued I thought I'd take a look at the arty from July on Morocco. Oddly, I found it not bad, not anywhere as much as implied by the fulminating against it.

Welcome to the kingdom of Morocco, a place that, in light of the last two weeks' events in Iran, merits a few minutes of reflection. Unlike Turkey, Morocco is not a secular state: The king claims direct descent from the prophet Mohammed. Nor does Morocco aspire to be European [NB Lounsbury: not any longer, although Hassan II had an amusing demarche to tweak the Fr. in this respect] Though French is still the language of business and higher education, the country is linguistically and culturally part of the Arabic-speaking world. But unlike most of its Arab neighbors, the country has over the last decade undergone a slow but profound transformation from traditional monarchy to constitutional monarchy, acquiring along the way real political parties, a relatively free press, new political leaders—the mayor of Marrakesh is a 33-year-old woman—and a set of family laws that strives to be compatible both with sharia and international conventions on human rights.

The result is not what anyone would call a liberal democratic paradise. One human rights activist painted for me a byzantine portrait of electoral corruption involving "mediators" who "organize" votes on behalf of candidates. Others point out that if the demonstrators I saw at the parliament had been Islamic radicals or Western Saharan guerrilla leaders, rather than trade unionists, the police might not have been quite so blasé. Though women have legal rights, cultural restraints remain. A tiny fraction of the population reads newspapers, even fewer have Internet access, and somewhere between 40 percent and 50 percent of the country is illiterate in any case. As a result, election turnout is very low. Political posters feature symbols, not words.

Emphasis added: Constitutional Monarchy? Mmmmmm. Maybe.  [edited to correct some systems errors]

Continue reading "Some old controversies: Morocco & Models, and Bloggy overreaction and preciousness"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:22 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

August 09, 2009

The Real Itchin' in Religion: Not the Text, Stupid

Some insightful, as in "I wish I'd said it" commentary, some days back by blogger "Thoreau" at Unqualified Offerings. Adapted below from a lead post and then some later comment by him, he notes in passing some things of direct relevance to those who look at issues of religion and violence and traditionalism, etc. specifically as regards the largely Muslim Middle East and the alleged Muslim requirement to go forth and jihadify. In sum, the idea that people are driven, or even set their norms, by some robotic response to purported permanent religious injunctions in the sacred writ is non-real world, i.e. not religion as actually practiced by real people anywhere. (And to add to his commentary, I would note that most sincere religious observance/piety/consciousness in people tends to proceed from the poetic part of the individual human character as well as the social and cultural.) His discussion started with the tension alleged between religion and science; see below the break here for fuller quote.

Continue reading "The Real Itchin' in Religion: Not the Text, Stupid"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:56 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 03, 2009

Morocco: The Cretin Wing of the Makhzen strikes back (idiotic censorship

I just noticed old friend Ibn Kafka's note on the Moroccan Government seizing Tel Quel (a local weekly that is addicted to shock journalism) Le sondage interdit au Maroc - The Poll Banned In Morocco.

In grosso modo, it appears that the Cretin Wing of the Makhzen decided to seize Tel Quel (I have never thought much of Tel Quel, it never manages to go beyond its addiction to shock journalism, and frankly I don't think much of the reporting in areas where I feel well placed to judge - hardly though a reason to seize and destroy the edition).


Ben Kafka notes

Larbi, le bloggeur qui bloggue plus vite que son ombre, a publié une dépêche AFP révélant quelques résultats plus détaillées du sondage que l’Etat marocain refuse de voir publier dans la presse marocaine (sachant bien évidemment que n’importe quel crétin et sa belle-mère pourront le lire sur le web)/ Larbi, the blogger who blogs quicker than his shadow published the AFP article revealing some of the more detailed results of the poll, that the Moroccan state refused to see published in the Moroccan press (understanding evidently that any cretin and his mother in law can read it on the Web.

See also Le Monde.

I'll put this in English later as well as some more comments, but this is truly moronic. The poll is in fact rather positive for the Monarchy, and banning its publication really reeks of the worst idiocy possible. However, it does reflect the old-school Makhzen mentality that remains deeply entrenched in the government. While the King (M6) has his faults, gross and obvious stupidity has never seemed to be one of them. (Subtler forms, perhaps arguable, although I remain favourable disposed to-wards him, I mean look at his confrères...)  However, the  bootlicker Naciri went for broke. So yes, all the world should know that the Makhzen bootlickers could not stand the idea of the Moroccan population knowing that an international poll found "only" 91% approval relative to M6's first decade. More on the poll later as well.

Old stupidities die hard.

[Ahem, two typos correct 15 Aug 09, accidentally wrote Ben Kakka... sorry mate, entirely an accident)

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 16, 2009

Can Iran Firmly Sustain An Election? Links and Stuff

Some numbers crunching here and analysis with gossip here. Word of mouthy reports of human rights leaders being arrested here. A danger of hanging chadors. Links and or leads to them, courtesy of Aqoulite Eva Luna who is too engaged to otherwise post.

So, who won?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:51 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

June 06, 2009

Obama Talking to Just Arabs/Iran/MENA?

So says the Jakarta Post. That's in Indonesia. Jakarta, that is, not the Post. Well, the Post too but there are Posts everywhere.

At least three - democracy promotion, religious freedom and women's rights - of his seven points are more relevant to a region who's [sic] governments are bastions of despotism than [to] the average Indonesian,. . . . for the majority of Indonesians - Muslim or otherwise - these three issues are fundamental ways of life already held dear. . . Not surprisingly Indonesia's most eminent Muslim thinkers were products of Western scholarship, not Al-Azhar or Arab Universities . . ..But in Cairo he put an Arabic frame on a cultural dialog which most Muslims may not relate to.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 27, 2009

Iran Blocks Facebook Before Election

Tyranny likes this.

Ahmadinejad sends Bad Karma to opposition.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:27 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

April 24, 2009

Orientalist Art Boom: Will this get Aqoul design a cash bid?

From Saudi Aramcoworld comes this report of how middle easterners learned to stop worrying and finally loved the balm of Orientalist art:

In July 2008, Orientalism brought £21.4 million to Christie’s in London, “the highest total ever achieved for this category,” says Alexandra McMorrow, director of 19th-century European art for the prestigious auction house. This included world record prices for seven artists; “bidders from North Africa, the Middle East, India, Europe and America competed fiercely,” she adds. . . .These shifts are part of a larger, gradual, mostly sympathetic reevaluation that has been taking place over the past few decades of much 19th-century European art.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:44 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

April 11, 2009

Super Popular Comb Over wins in Algeria

Well the head Comb Over got his face reddening with 90% of a claimed 70% turnout. One has a hard time disagreeing with one of the losers

"worthy of the banana republics

Souksousou Republic.

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 07, 2009

Just giving the Algerian people another shot at expressing their gratitude to Mr Comb Over

A fine arty in Middle East Report Online Introducing Algeria’s President-for-Life by Ahmed Aghrout and Yahia H. Zoubir - focused on the upcoming... "elections."
I personally like Bouteflika's declaration "I propose nothing new, but I promise a strong and peaceful Algeria (Jeune Afrique 5-11 avril) for its charming bluntness and honesty.... well except maybe the strong and peaceful part. But certainly nothing new!

The economy remains dependent on hydrocarbon revenues -- exports outside this sector represent a paltry 2 percent of the total. The official rate of unemployment is close to 15 percent, which explains why candidate Bouteflika has promised the creation of 3 million jobs within five years if he is reelected. He claims to have brought unemployment down from more than 30 percent in 1999 to 12 percent in 2008, but no one outside the regime considers this figure credible, and true unemployment is certainly much more widespread than the state says. Domestic and foreign investment faces tall hurdles, while the banking sector remains quasi-archaic. Most of the infrastructure projects of which Bouteflika boasts have been plagued by delays as well as waste.

Tall hurdles indeed, for FDI. You'd have to be bloody retarded to invest in Algeria now given Comb Over thinks Presidential decrees forbidding foreigners from owning more than 49% of firms and blocking previously agreed on dividend repatriation. And those charming speeches about foreigners robbing Algeria... Mmmm, indeed its the foreigners robbing.

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 30, 2009

A Chechen in Every Potshot? Dubai Assassination

Stretching out our Dubai trilogy to 4, Chechen on-again off-again military leader, Sulim Yamadayev, who was apparently against the Russians before he was recently for them, was just shot to death while staying in the UAE. (There appears to be a pattern of exiled adversaries of current pro-Russian Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov dying in a veritable Fodor's list of the world's more glamorous cities.) It appears Dubai's gendarmes have made an arrest. In all the unhappy news about Dubai, let's not hope for "free fire zone" to replace a currently economically bumpy "free trade zone." Importing Russian affairs has typically hitherto had only a recreationally carnal implication.
In the end, though, this is probably more a Chechnya-Russia story here than a Gulf one.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:58 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 23, 2009

Dubai, Bye Bye?: Guardian Lumps Gulf City's Fate with Detroit

Simon Jenkins at The Guardian declares prognosis negative on the ultimate fate of Dubai, which he has slated to be the Detroit of the Middle East, only worse, and largely on an architectural basis. My gut and a brief impression there in real time tend to disagree. But folks with real data and experience are out there. (UPDATE: One of our Aqoul circle opines differently from Jenkins here (disclaimer, author didn't write the overenthusiastic tite). And now, for the Dubai-curious. a bit of Jenkins below the break.

Continue reading "Dubai, Bye Bye?: Guardian Lumps Gulf City's Fate with Detroit"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:56 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

December 30, 2008

Gaza round, all ye clowns: Open thread

Try to keep the hyperpartisanship down in this more heat than light subject. Observations, etc. on the latest, have at it. But when in doubt, note sentence 1 here again.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:50 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

December 14, 2008

But. . . is it good for the shoes?

(Apologies to an old parochial expression.) President Bush encounters one meaning of leading a sole superpower when a journalist in Baghdad tosses his footwear at the US head of state. The arch terrorist reportedly shouted "This is the End". Jim Morrison is sadly incapable of comment.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:48 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

November 09, 2008

Now Hear the Nerds of the Lord: Monks Battle in J'lem

Not since the pocket-protectors flew maniacally in my high-school Chess Team intramural conflict between Star Trek and Star Wars clubs have I seen such a significant Battle of the Nerds (I was Trek). In Jerusalem's Holy Sepulchre, alleged tomb of Christ, Greek Orthodox and Armenian monks have been busted after exchanging hard blows (no relation to child sex scandals, btw).

The monk, who gave his name as Serafim, said he sustained the wound when an Armenian punched him from behind and broke his glasses.

No word on his Rubik's cube, but the monastic mayhem is all part of the long-runnning turf wars of Christian sects over a site that even the big JC walked out of after only three days (theologians debate still what happened to the 30-day deposit). This conflict is dwarfed by the larger mostly Muslim Arab versus mostly Jewish Israeli contentions over the whole city, but could conceivably outsize it in being even stupider. On the other hand, such intra-Xtian things did give us the Crimean War which produced Tennyson's great Charge of the LIght Brigade.

Continue reading "Now Hear the Nerds of the Lord: Monks Battle in J'lem"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

November 04, 2008

Barack Hussein Obama MENA Open Thread

Looks like America's first Hawaiian-bred, Kenyan-derived, Indonesian-educated, 1960s-born, Muslim-middle-named President-elect is about to be. What does the success of Obama/Biden portend, if anything, for the Middle East North Africa region? Obama's foreign affairs team seems not wildly new, at least in terms of the conventional US spectrum. Some discussion has already started on the monthly open thread.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 01, 2008

(UPDATE) Starving for Detention: Pro-Saudi-Dissident Hunger Strike

A hunger strike in Saudi Arabia on behalf of Saudi dissidents in custody is set for November 6-7. It is apparently the first such hunger strike in Saudi Arabia, or at least the first publicly known one.

"To the government, we want to say that you can't put prisoners of conscience in jail without facing consequences," said Walid Abu-Alkhair, a writer and lawyer in Jiddah. "And to the activists, we want to say, you are not alone. We want to show that when you put human rights activists in jail, a new wave will come and take their place."

Food for thought, or non-food as the case may be. (UPDATE: full information release/specifics further down below).

Continue reading "(UPDATE) Starving for Detention: Pro-Saudi-Dissident Hunger Strike"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 17, 2008

Yemen Goes South: Open Carnage Thread

Latest news indicates 16 or so dead in an apparent attempted raid on the U.S. Embassy to Yemen. This account, based on Yemen insider sources who work hard to bring the discussion quickly around to the expected "you need to send us more money, dammit", indicates it was a successfully stopped large-scale raid, and likely it was al-Qaeda (now there's some serious sleuthing!). Comments on the event from Aqoulites, friends, enemies, etc. . . . have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:29 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 01, 2008

Let us praise Libyan craftiness and all the lessons learned from Italy

I confess no small degree of admiration for the Desert Hookah Smoker, my early childhood guide, Si Mouamar Gaddafi. this little bit is an act of piracy worthy of .... Rome I think

It's delicious, extorting equity:

In a tent outside Benghazi on Saturday, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's centre-right prime minister, returned a headless statue of Venus carted away by Italians decades ago and signed a friendship pact with Muammer Gaddafi, the Libyan leader.

The agreement, in which Italy pledges to pay $5bn (€3.4bn, £2.75bn) over 25 years in reparations through various projects - including a highway across Libya from Egypt to Tunisia - follows a decade of difficult negotiations under a succession of Italian governments.

Of course any pledge over 25 years by an Italian government should be discounted to present value using a discount rate appropriate to Italian finances, perhaps Medieval ones. Still, a win win - B Boy and the Guide get to bask in the PR of Large Numbers, and the Guide gets to pocket a decent amount of current exchange.

Almost as intriguing is is The Guide's "Extol[ing] virtues of capitalist reforms" as the FT arty puts it.
Well not quite:

Continue reading "Let us praise Libyan craftiness and all the lessons learned from Italy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:19 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 24, 2008

MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?

Moving back MENA-ward, I add a rant inspired by long-time discussions here and elsewhere regarding investment in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. My amateur self keeps reading about Gulf or other money chasing things like real estate or hub port facilities, or digging out more of that Texas tea. Now, I hope I don't use too technical economic terms here, but here goes the rant: shouldn't the bulk of this fund dough, including money from superrich nations, be going towards activities where, you know, MENA regular folks will, like, MAKE NEW STUFF and then SELL THAT NEWLY-MADE STUFF TO OTHER PEOPLE for, um, HARD MONEY. That may sound a bit hi-falutin grad-school airy-fairy idealistic, development economics-y, but it needs to be said.

Continue reading "MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

August 16, 2008

Georgia-MENA open thread

(Apologies for genuinely accidental labored allusion.) Anyway, Russia has been doing a bit of marching through Georgia, reviving the Cold War-era 1980s for a bit (assuming the decade had ever left). Readers, writers, commenters, members, computer-owners and -operators are invited to share their wisdom on the latest Caucasian occasion, but most particularly in ways it may relate to the Middle East North Africa regions. Iran yawns; Israel lays low; Turks get dissed; Georgia removes its legions from Mesopotamia. And Vladimir Putin has been confirmed as Tsar of all the Russias, every blasted one of them, even those little Russias that fall under the couch cushions.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:10 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

August 07, 2008

Nouakchott in the Dark: Mauretania Coup

Semi-Aqoulite alle on his blog provides background and details on Mauretania going coup coup. In comments by alle elsewhere on this site, he notes that "there goes the Arab world's most interesting experiment in democracy-by-coup."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 01, 2008

His Hair Was Perfect: Werewolves of Gaza

(Apologies to the late Mr Zevon.) Turkey's so deeply meaningful war over hatwear nearly overthrew the government, and apparently its recent being sent to its room without supper is causing the AKP to temporarily write off the struggle, um, whole cloth. But those profound Turkish wars of meaning over hatwear give way to Gaza, where the struggle over the true hair of steadfastness has reached crisis proportions. It appears that Hamas is now shaving the moustaches off Fatah activists, in retaliation for the jackbooted debearding of Hamas loyalists by Fatah. An ominous development for a society already beset by settlers wielding sidecurls in violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention on Treatment of Follicles. Is history so soon forgotten, or are they just returning to their roots? Is it not time to get more bangs for the buck, and yes, rogaine one's freedom? And didn't Munich teach that even a small moustache needs to be stopped early? Turkey has stopped hair-covering, but hair itself remains appeased. Can anyone not see the civilization at stake in all this? What coiffure-textile combination do you feel best reflects optimal social values? Or is this person the secret key to global harmony?

Continue reading "His Hair Was Perfect: Werewolves of Gaza"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:47 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 27, 2008

Turkey: The Islamic Democrat Option & The Court

The Financial Times has an interesting commentary on Turkey and the current court battle against the AKP: Objection overruled: Turkish political Islam fights for survival in court. Of particular note is the decline of the European option and what may be the subsequent damage to political liberalism. It is hard to say what is precisely right here, but my instinct is that the Turkish secular establishment is shooting its own foot off. The gains by the AKP are as much due to simple basic competence as Islamic appeal, and from the point of a view as a model cited now and again in MENA (in MENA, by Islamist parties), this struggle, unlike much Turkish political reference, has echoes.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:50 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

July 12, 2008

The Arab Moderate

The Financial Times' Roula Khalaf wrote an interesting item on former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher's upcoming book, "The Arab Centre."

Khalaf's note is interesting in itself, and almost makes me want to buy Muasher's book, although I rather suspect in the end I'll learn rather little since I was hanging around in the area during Muasher's time.... The main item raised is what does "moderate" really mean when Westerners use the term vis-a-vis the Arab world. I think Khalaf and Muasher suffer from typical over-focus on one item the I-P conflict, but the point of the commentary, that moderate as a label really revolves around a core, that is accepting Israel.

I would add that speaking English (or French) well and wearing a western suit also gets one considered a moderate, or that is persons having the image of Westernisation are 'moderate.'

Continue reading "The Arab Moderate"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:20 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

France, Islam & Integration

As brought up in the open thread, a strange court case coming out Fransa: France rejects Muslim woman over radical practice of Islam, worthy of a moment of reflexion.

The headliner is

France has denied citizenship to a Moroccan woman who wears a burqa on the grounds that her "radical" practice of Islam is incompatible with basic French values such as equality of the sexes.

although deeper in the article one may be able to pull out something more fundamental (or perhaps better put, reasonable, than her choice of clothing as the basis of the citizenship denial, notably lack of integration and mastery of French society.

Of no great surprise, the woman did not wear the Saudi style ninja costume in her native Morocco; apparently imposed by her husband in France. Without having further information, one would suspect a family arranged marriage of a country girl to a cousin or contact in France who's gone reactionary in France.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:21 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

June 25, 2008

Background of the Boumediene vs. Bush case

As a follow-up to the recent US supreme court decision, it’s interesting to note that, Lakhdar Boumediene and the five other Algerians who were arrested with him were not captured in combat, but in their homes in Bosnia, a case of the “extraordinary renditions”, making even their status as “unlawful combatants” questionable.

They were naturalized Bosnian citizens, who the US authorities in Bosnia wanted extradited based on secret evidence (tapped conversations with “coded references to a terrorist plot” between one of the Algerian Bosnians and a relative of his who worked as a janitor in the Sarajevo US embassy, and other phone calls to a Pakistan based suspected terrorist). Several accounts seem to indicate the US would have exercised heavy Rambo-style pressure to obtain their arrest:

U.S. pressure to have the group extradited to the U.S. continued to mount. Initially, it boiled down to "if you are not going to convict them, just let us know when do you plan to release them and we will arrest them." A day before their detention ended, SFOR commander Gen. John Sylvester and U.S. Ambassador Clifford Bond met with top Bosnian and Muslim-Croat Federation officials and plainly told them if they did not hand over the group, Bosnia would pay a very high price. They added that they were through with Afghanistan and were just looking for another place to continue the struggle against terrorism. The message was quite clear, especially since they stressed that President George W. Bush was personally interested in the matter.

Continue reading "Background of the Boumediene vs. Bush case"

Posted by Shaheen at 08:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 11, 2008

Al-Sharq, babe, has such teeth, dear: Lebanese Big Shots Interviewed

(Apologies to Bobby Darrin and the Three-Penny Opera.) On what seems like the ultimate Summer Vacation for MENA nerds, a student provides extremely useful and interesting account of meetings with the pezzonovantes of the Lebanon. Via Col. Pat Lang, via commenter duaneg. Below, some choice excerpts....

Continue reading " Al-Sharq, babe, has such teeth, dear: Lebanese Big Shots Interviewed"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:30 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

June 01, 2008

Martyr, She Wrote: Zawahari Slammed For Males-Only Al-Qaeda

Hell hath no fury as a wannabe mujahedah scorned, it seems. Ayman al-Zawahari's comments, that al Qaeda cannot accept female fighters, has alot of pro-al Qaeda women's abayas in a wad. Websites are full of anger over his suggestions that they should be stay-at-home moms, merely nurturing, raising and feeding the next generation of pointless mass murderers. (I don't know if Rosie the Riveter or Zenobia or Xena, Warrior Princess would approve either side in that debate.) Via Thoreau at Henley.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 AM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

May 28, 2008

Keffiyeh & Donuts: Ad Cancelled Because of Scarf Threat

Can it get dumber than this? Probably, but you'd have to work at it. The disturbing part is not the initiation of an attack on an ad because of a scarf that looks like a keffiyeh, it's that the anything-but-small-time ad sponsor would roll over so quickly, with no counterreaction against them for doing so. (Bonus related question: What is it about nationalism and, in other contexts than this, feminism, that makes such issues out of headgear?)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:56 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

May 18, 2008

La Cache Qui Rit: Egypt's Facebook Protest Met With Facebreak

The Washington Post tells of the attempt to use Facebook to organize a protest strike in Egypt, and the successful efforts of the government to beat it to the punch by, well, beating and punching its chief organizer, after disrupting and threatening the organizing. "Security forces beat him from 1 p.m. Wednesday until 3 a.m. Thursday, stripping him naked, slapping him, dragging him across the floor tied to a rope and threatening to rape him, Maher said. They demanded passwords to the Facebook groups, although the groups do not require passwords, and the real names of those who had registered, he said."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:38 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

May 09, 2008

Get your Kicks / On Beirut / Sects' Dissects

An open thread for discussion of Lebanon at the crossroads . . . again. And who'd have guessed Nasrallah would provide the fireworks for Israel's 60th anniversary? Followup full posts from our expert team are welcome and encouraged, with removing the horrid tasteless lyrics allusion-pun above from its lead position as added incentive.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:26 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

May 02, 2008

Funny, She Doesn't Look Bahraini

Bahrain's possible new ambassador to the US has interesting demographics. Not all that amazing if one is familiar with the region outside of stereotypes and post-1948 tensions. Still the background of the former legislator(-tress?), if legislating is what the Shura Council does, might cause some to be unduly surprised.

MANAMA, Bahrain - The only Jewish woman lawmaker in Bahrain is a candidate to become this Persian Gulf kingdom's ambassador to Washington. . . . Huda Nono, a legislator in the Shura Council, said she was among people being considered for the post and referred further queries to the foreign ministry. . . .If Nono was appointed, Bahrain would be the first Arab country to send a high-level Jewish diplomat to Washington. . . . Nono is the first Jewish woman in the Shura Council, a 40-seat body appointed by the king that also has a Christian among its 11 female legislators. . . . Nono replaced her cousin Ibrahim Nono, who held the Shura Council seat for four years.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:33 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

April 23, 2008

Another Good Conspiracy Theory Down the Drain

Al Qaeda says an Israeli conspiracy didn't do 9/11. And, it adds, Iran started the Israel conspiracy rumor. Is that itself a conspiracy rumor?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:43 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

Open Thread on Carter, Hamas, and Stuff

Belaboring, distatefully, the last general subject area, we turn to Jimmy Carter's statement that Hamas was ready to accept Israel at some point in some way. Hamas itself seems to disagree. To me, it appears to be a conflict of spin. Hamas will not, for ideological reasons, recognize Israel but they appear to be willing to accept a Palestinian state on 1967 borders, and say they would accept a popular referendum to honor a truce to go no further. With spin, that can be seen as de facto acceptance of the Palestinian Authority's current or future recognition of Israel. Sounds alot like China and Taiwan, actually. (Which situation can erupt at any time, but probably won't as long as mutual prosperity keeps rearing its ugly head.) Anyway, unlike the previous thread where I had a strong opinion and not much time or interest to engage, as I was asserting something obvious, here I am inactive because I have no strong opinion or time, so it is just an open thread for those interested.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:15 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

April 02, 2008

A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It

It being a little quiet around here what with all of us busy and/or lazy, I thought I'd spice it up by going against the usual, and quite healthy, distaste of most Aqoul principals towards wading into the Israel-Palestine morass. Especially as there are anniversaries and such coming up. Anyway, today's lesson comes from a column of Michael Gerson (not a fan, myself, usually) in the Washington Post. It tells of a speech at the Holocaust Museum by an old gentleman, a Mr. Traum, who was once a very young gentleman in Nazified Austria. He recalls various events especially around Kristallnacht in 1938-39. Below the break is a revealing nugget.

Continue reading "A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:37 AM | Comments (74) | TrackBack

February 24, 2008

Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism

Worthy of reflexion on larger tensions between economic and political reform in MENA, Bahrain seems to be going through an awkward spot in terms of political and economic reform although it is Bush ibn Bush's Khaliji wunderkind for democratisation. Nothing surprising in this, other than perhaps the qualified support of the opposition (and even that is not terribly astounding as such, given the way publicly expressed opposition generally occurs in Monarchies).

Continue reading "Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 17, 2008

Whither Arab Sats? The 'Arab' (authoritarian dinos) broadcasting code

The Financial Times worthy article on Al Jazeerah's response to the Mubarek led censorship drive is worthy of some reflexion.

The key portion of the so-called media code is:

“The commitment to freedom of expression is a main cornerstone of Arab media activity, provided that the practice of this freedom should be informed by a sense of awareness and responsibility in order to protect the higher interests of Arab states and of the Arab nation,”

Of course the Arab states "higher interests" (never mind the polite outdated fiction of the 'Arab Nation') really means the interests of the dictators to provide turgid non-news. Now, taking Morocco as an example, with a relatively free-ish media under a media code that is perhaps nearly as potentially cretinous, it is true that application is as important as a law (above all in circumstances as obtain in MENA were law is more an expression of potential intent than binding law). But effects?

Continue reading "Whither Arab Sats? The 'Arab' (authoritarian dinos) broadcasting code"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:16 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

January 18, 2008

Don't Worry, the French Military is En Garde Duty in the Gulf

France just announced plans to establish a military base in the UAE.

Continue reading "Don't Worry, the French Military is En Garde Duty in the Gulf"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 08:11 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

December 28, 2007

Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work

Finally figuring out what anyone here could have told them years ago, US forces in Iraq have earned at least a B-plus in Empire-Building 101 -- not that that's a good thing, but it can salve a sore wound for an indefinite period. The principle is to use local power structures as your surrogates, basically by bribing them. This USA Today story details it well. (Thanks to a Klaus call, we have a link for the original stick-figure anti-insurgent plan offered by a later-killed US soldier here.)

Tribal sheiks . . . have seats on most of the city councils and the provincial council. . . . Many tribes run construction and trucking businesses and benefit from U.S. and Iraqi government reconstruction projects. The contracts with U.S. forces allow sheiks to hand out jobs, and thus maintain power.

Continue reading "Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 04:39 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

December 27, 2007

Sindhs of the father: Benazir Bhutto dead thread (open)

Benazir Bhutto, ex-Pakistani prime minister, is now an ex-person. Have at the whole set of issues in this open thread, o dear readers. Others of the Aqoul team may post more detailed entries on this most unpleasant passing of the daughter of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. (BTW, I don't know who those people are who say 'why do Muslims never go out in the streets venting their anger when al-Qaeda or other extremists* do a terrorist act?') Well, clearly, they sometimes do.

Continue reading "Sindhs of the father: Benazir Bhutto dead thread (open)"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:22 PM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

December 24, 2007

Holiday Fuzziness, Algeria, Al Qaeda and Iraq

As fuzzily cheery such news as interfaith warm and fuzzy declarations (which have their utility although as I consider them rather normal in my experience, I find them boring), of rather more interest perhaps is an uncharacteristically interesting commentary from NYT via the FT on one of the Algerian suicide bombers from last months bloody nonsense in Algiers which is interesting reading paired with FT's Quent Peel's commentary on the "socialist timewarp" that is Algeria, and the Kremlinesque opacity of its political sphere.

Continue reading "Holiday Fuzziness, Algeria, Al Qaeda and Iraq"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:09 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 16, 2007

Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure

Not often do I get to be more right than Jim Henley, but here I claim it though I can't document my earlier growing sense that The Surge would turn out better than we cynics first expected. (The last time he was wrong, which goes back years, so was I, as when he predicted that Ariel Sharon would not go through with the Gaza withdrawal.) But now he is surprised that violence has not rebounded in Iraq since The Surge in a way he has predicted. I am far less surprised however and, although I started as a Surge Cynic as shown here, I have come to feel after more information that there has been a good chance of some sustained suppression of the violence. More on why, below.

Continue reading "Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:58 AM | Comments (28) | TrackBack

December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

Continue reading "NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 02, 2007

Prediction: Teddy Bear Thing Started As Spite

This sentence is in one story: "The row erupted after a secretary at the school complained to the Sudanese authorities about the naming of the bear." I cannot find it but somewhere I came across a reference to the Teddy Bear Teacher as having apologized to a faculty member who was offended. Prediction: this will turn out to have started as a spite attack by someone in the school staff who, for whatever reason, did not personally like that teacher and found an issue to attack her on that would get the dopey and the offenderati riled up. Could be wrong here, but the spidey senses are starting to tingle as this kind of information trickles in.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:38 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

November 27, 2007

Annapolis Semi-Open Thread

In Annapolis, Maryland, USA, another round of peace efforts commences in the Great Intra-Semite Parking Space Quarrel ("You have 22 other parking spaces!"/ "Well, you're not really a car!"/"God stamped this ticket!"). It -- the conference not the quarrel -- will last for "as long as [Rice] feels there is a good, solid and productive discussion." Have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:43 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

October 24, 2007

MENA Reform: Reform is Dead, Long Live Reform

In part provoked by stunningly irritating conference call with idiots (aka known as 'funders") and in part by getting this piece of silliness emailed to me by some of the same participants, the recent naming of a government in Morocco (for which you can see some useful French commentary chez Ibn Kafka, whose 2nd home at Aqoul sadly awaits the intervention of a mystery writer coming out with a stunning review of some Somali chick...) is a moment to reflect on reform, via this flawed although not entirely useless article in FT (if one closes one's eyes to the idiocy of quoting the USFP). I will add that yes it is clear that England is clearly stringing together his series of quotables, poor bastid is a bit at sea.

First, in preface, let me say that I have long held the opinion that political reform can not really take place except when driven by economic change. At the same time, my dear Ben Ali in Tunisia shows that economic progress without political reform in our MENA region, well can go down a blind alley to be polite.

Continue reading "MENA Reform: Reform is Dead, Long Live Reform"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:20 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

October 20, 2007

Souq Heil: What's Up With This Cocked-Arm Gesture?

The sunbats are out doing their Islamofascism Awareness week hate-fest, with the usual bigotries and idiocies, but I do have to agree though on the reaction engendered by this photo (I've seen others like it) of what appears to be the Hizbollah 3rd Bandana battalion. Is it what it appears to be -- a militaristic fascist salute, or has it some other significance? UPDATE: With the aid of commenter M, we learn it is indeed a political-militaristic "Roman salute" but apparently a Fascist-era Lebanese custom that transcends sectarian lines (is that a good or bad thing?). Enjoy (thanks M) this collage of Lebanon's main Christian party, and chief Lebanese allies of Israel, doing the Teutonic taxi hail. (Cache it in, before they get hip and delete.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:06 PM | Comments (31) | TrackBack

September 26, 2007

Abu Aardvark on The Surge & The Sunni Leadership

A personal favorite political magazine's blog presents a personal favorite political institute's video of an Aqoul favorite blogger Marc Lynch, aka Abu Aardvark, speaking at a conference at the CATO Institute on THE SURGE. The professorial Father of Aardvarks opines about the recent Iraq Sunni insurgent-US military cooperation, but bases his insights on Arabic language media and internet communications of Sunni community leaders. The conclusions he arrives at are basically that the Sunni leaders are stating to their very anti-US constituency that cooperation with the USA is merely tactical and the result of insurgent victories which forced the US to assist them in certain common aims of fighting al-Qaeda and fighting some Shiite militias. They view the government and al-Sadr as "Iranian" and they eventually want the entire US occupation out. In addition, the conditions are such that further sectarian fragmentation is underway and no matter how long the US stays, it appears the conditions will remain ripe for sectarian war. Informed readers, have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:48 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 11, 2007

The Moroccan elections - a victory for makhzeno-khobzism...

As most readers will know by now, Morocco's by far largest party is that of the abstentionists, who, with 63% of registered voters, won a landslide victory. Of the remaining 37% who bothered to vote, a sizeable amount voted blank - around 25% in Meknès and Fez, for example. Of those who cast a valid ballot, it would appear that the supposedly nationalist Istiqlal party won less than a fifth of the votes, slightly ahead of the mdoerate islamist PJD. Of course, besides being a blow to the governmental aspirations of the PJD, which seemed reasonable prior to the elections, this outcome means that the King will have even more of a free rein than previously - plus ça change, moins ça change...

For Morocco's democratisation process, this is a serious setback - and it is arguably a false victory on the longer term for the "executive monarchy" (1) favored by the King and his advisers...

Continue reading "The Moroccan elections - a victory for makhzeno-khobzism..."

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 06:57 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

September 10, 2007

Morocco: Quick Reflexions on Not Quite A Spanish Democracy

A quick reflexion on the Moroccan elections that are without any doubt a disaster for the "emerging Spanish style democracy" image pimped for (and sometimes by) Morocco, which 'Aqoul via our good amigo Ibn Kafka (who I hope we will welcome at 'Aqoul in a not distant future, at least no more distant than rumours of postings on Infidel) has done I think yoeman service in 'covering' as it were. Before my own thoughts, as a running dog of capitalism, Anglo Saxon foreigner blah blah, a quick and useful summary of our election backgrounders.

1. Sept 8: Morocco's elections: Money, personalisation of politics and public disaffection
2. Sept 7: Rock-bottom turnout in Morocco's general elections (NB: yours truly retracts initial reaction as wrong, wrong wrong)
3. Sept 7: When even MEMRI has doubts... (slightly unfair I would say, but Ibn Kafka had a point)
4. Sept 6: A candidate above all suspicion (Palace man as "independent" candidate... the grotesquely structured domestic media commentary via the sats post-election does remind one that Morocco, however much it has advanced, has not but a smidgen of critical journalism in re anything Palace)
5. Sept 5: After Leb tarts and March 14, Moroccan babes and the PJD
6. Aug 29: Preview of the Moroccan elections, Part III
7. Aug 22: Preview of the Moroccan elections, Part II
8. Aug 19: Preview of the Moroccan elections, Part I

Continue reading "Morocco: Quick Reflexions on Not Quite A Spanish Democracy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:31 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 09, 2007

Quick Roundup of News on Roundups

{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)

Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)

Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.

And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 07, 2007

Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day

Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."

Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"

In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".

Continue reading "Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

F**kin' Alif, Dude! Arabic School Opens in Brooklyn

The Khalil Gibran International Academy school has opened in New York, part of the public education system. Being a wacko libertarian, I have my reservations even about public schooling as a general concept, but allowing it to be a virtue and necessity, still what advantage is it to have a specialized school devoted to Arabic culture and language for kids in Brooklyn USA? Folks, there does exist a private education option for establishing such things, if felt needed. This has a Euro feel of separateness to it, combined with the related US cult of the Great God Diversity. But I thought we yanks had passed on the "separate but equal" thing in public schools. Naturally, of course, the Daniel Pipes squadrons of haters-of-all-things-even-appearing-Muslimish-and-socially-acceptable made an unbelievably laughably weird xenophobic stink over it (Pipes: "learning Arabic in-and-of-itself promotes an Islamic outlook"). They even got the first chosen principal fired for correctly explaining that intifada in Arabic means a shaking-off, thereby apparently establishing that a school that teaches the Arabic language should most definitely not teach it accurately.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:47 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

September 02, 2007

Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?

The informed blogosphere and newsosphere are abuzz with rumors* that a US war, or a sustained attack (i.e.war), on Iran is being put out for aggressive marketing by Administration innards this week. Events will prove this true or false. Regardless of the rightness or wrongness of such a thing, if it is being planned, I do wonder if the questions and considerations below have been addressed.

Continue reading "Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

August 29, 2007

Preview of the Moroccan elections, part III

It is a very fitting symbol that former interior minister Driss Basri died today Monday of cirrhosis (he was a heavy drinker, as many sécuritaires tend to be nowadays), a few days into the official electoral campaign for the Moroccan House of Representatives (1). Deputy minister of the interior from to 1974 to 1977, he was Morocco's all-powerful minister of the interior from 1977 to a few months after the death of the late king, Hassan II, in 1999. If the few elections held before his time - general elections of 1963 and 1970, local elections of 1960 - were too few and perhaps too early to establish Morocco's democratic credentials (that of 1963 was clean while that of 1970 was a sham), the ones held thereafter were managed in a way that allowed him to run the whole gamut of his manipulative, divisive, corruptive and deeply undemocratic electoral techniques.

Continue reading "Preview of the Moroccan elections, part III"

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 06:16 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

August 25, 2007

Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place

I must say something nice about the Washington Times, which normally has MENA-related fare along the lines of FoxNews and this type of swill. I saw this story a short time back of a travel-writer's visit to Syria in the dead-wood version, but not online. Now I see it is online. Amazingly, the writer actually seems to have taken note of the place and reported it and experienced what normal travelers there would notice, although one might find it too saccharine for its non-comments on the ubiquitous Leader & Family photos, or the pervasive poverty. Still, entitled sincerely and without guile The Kindness of Syrians, it is well done and refreshingly rooted in relevant reality; excerpts for you link-avoiders below the break. (Elsewhere on deeper questions of wealth and poverty, AbuFares has this to say; more on that at another time. Now back to the W. Times.)

Continue reading "Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 22, 2007

Preview of the Moroccan elections, Part II

In my previous post on the subject, I underlined the considerable constitutional preeminence afforded to the King of Morocco. But as if this wasn't enough, the judicial and institutional practice has gone even further in entrenching the absolute character of the Moroccan monarchy.

Continue reading "Preview of the Moroccan elections, Part II"

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 08:31 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

August 19, 2007

Preview of the Moroccan elections, Part I

Few people outside Morocco - and indeed inside Morocco as well - will have noticed that the elections to the House of Representatives (majliss annouab - chambre des représentants) is due in a few weeks time. They could be excused: as Ahmed Benchemsi, publisher of the independent weeklies Nichane and Tel Quel, wrote in an editorial which has led to his prosecution for crime of lèse-majesté, everyone in Morocco knows that the important decisions on the fate of the country have not been, are not, and will not be, for the elected representatives of the people to make.

Continue reading "Preview of the Moroccan elections, Part I"

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 10:26 AM | Comments (26) | TrackBack

August 13, 2007

A Cheney is only as strong as the weakest link

This American Enterprise Institute resident's expert comments, from circa 1994, are making the rounds, as well they should. Perhaps no one in the current Administration had encountered these thoughts, during the buildup to the Iraq invasion.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 10, 2007

Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples

The recent elections in Lebanon (or Leb Land as I like to style it) produced an interesting result although not one of such great surprise, except to perhaps the Tottens and Friedmans of the world, that is, the blow-back of incompetence and utterly delusional policy based on wishful thinking and unresolved contradiction on the part of the Great Power.

The NY Times article is a solid enough and illustrative of some issues long discussed here at Aqoul, notably the severe contradiction between American (but not only American, Western in general) "promotion" of democracy, and inattention to tied-in policies; never mind inability to take an appropriately rational "who's the best long-term bet for our fundamental interests" analytical view of potential allies in region - including the Islamists.

[It has been pointed out in comments that my comments on the article are undermined by the dodginess of the article premise - in particular the reality of the American connexion impact. As I am not watching Leb Land politics with great caution or interest, I'll simply issue this mea culpa for being suckered into ranting on too little basis. This being noted there is much other commentary remaining]

Continue reading "Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:37 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 05, 2007

Honor Off Her: Fadlallah Fatwas Honor-Killing Out of {Shia} Islam

The practice of hyperpatriarchal societies of murdering suspect sexually-impure females, known as honor killing, and prevalent in the MENA region, in the ME far more than the NA parts, has been ruled unIslamic by Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, Lebanon's leading Shiite Muslim figure. (This has appears to me a bit underreported, though to their semi-credit the story is noted by the creepshow bigots at Jihadwatch who then go on to argue that a fatwa against honor killings isn't really a fatwa against honor killings, because well, you know, it, um, well , it, anyway it makes sense to ignorant hate-spewers who claim to "get it" about Muslims, unlike us poor "dhimmis".) The fatwa, as some coverage notes but others in comments report differently, is not replicated much in Sunni circles to date. An analogy may be to southern American Christians who accomodated race-segregation even when some religious were not in favor, out of fear of public prejudice in favor of the practice. In any event, the fatwa's a cool thing, and it did not require the efforts of Irshad Manji. As far as I can tell, no comment by Ayaan Hirsi Ali on this, possibly because it doesn't compute?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:48 PM | Comments (37) | TrackBack

July 22, 2007

Dubai's New Erection Penetrates Foe China Entry's Position

Why are you looking at me like that? Stop it. The internal structure of the new under-construction Burj Dubai tower has just passed the height of the rival entry in the world's tallest building competition, Taiwan-Republic of China's Taipei 101 tower. The Burj is now 1,667 feet (sorry, I don't do metric). The question: is there any value or significance to such structures? It looks horrible at this stage; is the final version decent? And no. The caption wrote itself. Grow up. (Update: Taipei 101 - I think it's ugly too.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:45 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

July 14, 2007

Muslim Integration in American Political Life

I'd just like to draw attention to a recent report on the subject, which draws some conclusions I'd hope would be common sense to anyone paying attention. A few that particularly struck me:

Continue reading "Muslim Integration in American Political Life"

Posted by evaluna at 05:16 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

July 12, 2007

Tunisia & Women's Rights: Real Developments?

I turn this issue over to a better-informed readership. A Globalist article argues that Tunisia provides a real regional model for a legislative and public policy system that would protect the rights and hopes of women in home and professional life, and do so consistent with religious sentiment and scholarship. "What really sets Tunisia apart from other Arab countries and most majority-Muslim states," Andrea Barron writes, "are its policies on marriage, divorce, child support, abortion, honor crimes and domestic violence. After all, what does it matter if a woman can attend university, own her own business and run for political office if she cannot choose her own husband and be free from violence perpetrated by her own family members?" So, are the benefits in Tunisian women's legal rights genuinely real; if so, have they been a cause or the effect of social changes? And where does the, ahem, not quite freedom-loving/democratic nature of the Ben Ali government fit in to all this, if at all?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:21 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

June 24, 2007

Foregoing their Commission? Saudi Virtue/Vice Cops on Trial

D'apres this Washington Post story, it seems that the Saudi Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, the morality cops, are on trial. Some of Saudi's finest face charges for brutality, including killing, of suspects detained for, I don't know, flirting, willful shimmying, being within six meters of unbearded non-familial genitals, or whatever it is they arrest folks for. But whatever may be the foibles and popularity of enforcement of extremely conservative mores, there does seem to be a popular line in the sand (MENA stereotype imagery, sorry) being drawn against arbitrariness and in favor of due process. Procedural due process is a good thing in itself. {Note to the over-self-righteous: Of course, (adopting superior cultural tone here), we never have such things here as "vice squads", general alcohol bans, or police killing old ladies in places where consenting informed adults are merely alleged to be consuming or distributing a vice-inducing product.}

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:20 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

June 18, 2007

Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath

Monty Python's Life of Brian meets real life as this woman gets to speak in public as if she knows what she is talking about. Saracen-slayer Ayaan Hirsi Ali was speaking at the National Press Club and I accidentally heard it on the radio. At first I didn't know who it was until a stream of simple-minded inanities about Islam versus the West narrowed it down fast. No transcript available, only memory, but I had to belly-laugh and nearly spew as she explained Islam's rigidly came from the fact that it takes its Scriptures as literal and divinely authored unlike, um, Christianity. In the Christian Scriptures, she explained, the books are not fixed as being written by God, but are said to be written "by people . . . like Paul . . . and Deuteronomy." (That's exactly what I heard, folks.) What an expert guide for us on religion and progress! O, why did I have to be a Monty Python fan?

Continue reading "Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:30 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

June 16, 2007

Gaza Stripped: Two Demi-Quasi-States, One People

It appears the folks who rather justly complain of having no country, now appear to have two. Well, three, if you count the old Likudnik view of Jordan. Or in the negative numbers, if reality functions as a point of reference.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:59 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

May 23, 2007

Keep your Sunni side up: Lebanon conspiracy theory #637

Seymour Hersh propounds this conspiracy theory of sorts regarding the rise of Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon. I don't buy it offhand, but there's plausibility in a Saudi role in promoting Sunni anti-Shiite counterweights, with US winks and nods. Any takers?

What I was writing about was sort of a private agreement that was made between the White House, we're talking about Richard -- Dick -- Cheney and Elliott Abrams, one of the key aides in the White House, with Bandar. And the idea was to get support, covert support from the Saudis, to support various hard-line jihadists, Sunni groups, particularly in Lebanon, who would be seen in case of an actual confrontation with Hezbollah -- the Shia group in the southern Lebanon -- would be seen as an asset, as simple as that....There is a supreme overwhelming fear of Hezbollah and we do not want Hezbollah to play an active role in the government in Lebanon and that's been our policy, basically....

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (42) | TrackBack

May 07, 2007

Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union

Sarkozy’s proposal of a Mediterranean Union have been discussed a lot by French media, but with little substance. The fact is, there aren’t many details in the proposal anyway. From his party’s website:

Je favoriserai le développement des pays pauvres, en cessant d’aider les gouvernements corrompus, en mettant en place une Union méditerranéenne avec les pays du Sud

I will favor the development of poor countries, by stopping aid to corrupt governments, by creating a Mediterranean Union with southern countries

Since most countries of the South happen to be Arab and corrupt regimes, I wonder how his pro-colonial, pro-Israeli, “anti-corrupt” attitude is going to help him cooperate in building any kind of union with them.

Continue reading "Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union"

Posted by Shaheen at 02:54 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

April 28, 2007

France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy

As per The Lounsbury's suggestion, and following Ibn Kafka's extensive coverage of French elections, here are my two cents about them, Beurs, France and the MENA region and related economic bits.

Sunday's [May 6th] second round will most probably bring Sarkozy to French presidency. I have to say I'm very mixed up about this election. This round's vote is a matter of either gambling on Sarkozy, and risking what happened with Arab Americans, who happen to have voted George Bush in 2000, or choosing an economically destructive but marginally more risk averse community-wise choice with Segolene.

Continue reading "France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy"

Posted by Shaheen at 04:21 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

April 05, 2007

Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town

Youssef Boutros Ghali, Egypt's Minister of Finance, will be giving his take -- perhaps a bad choice of words -- on the economy of Nile-dom right here in Potomac River City, aka Washington D.C., on Thursday, April 12 (reserve at the CATO Institute by 11 April). Full details are below the break, and here, the most important of which is "Cato Forums and luncheons are free of charge." D.C area Aqoulites are required to go, if they are below 32 and in any kind of University. Meanwhile, informed comments from all on the subject, including from our own regional finance hyperinformed but Masrophobic resident Id, are welcome.

Continue reading "Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:16 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

February 11, 2007

What the Mecca Agreement could mean for the future of Palestine

The Mecca Agreement, signed by the leaders of Hamas and Fatah on 9 February, elicited much hope: that it will end the mini civil war in Gaza, which had begun to spread to the West Bank; that it will lift the international sanctions on the PA government; that it would force Israel to return to the negotiation table.

So far, the first target seems to have reached as the fighting has stopped. Of course, only in a few weeks will we know if the cessation of violence is permanent and can be sustained.

On the second and third targets the verdict is still out. The agreement has been received very cautiously, with the general comment being "Let's first see if the new government will conform to all demands by the International Quartet." The main, thorny issue is that of recognition of Israel and all agreements signed by the PLO.

One thing that hasn't been talked about is just what the new "government of national unity" means for the Palestinians ruled by it, and what the distribution of ministries will mean for the role that both Hamas and Fatah can (& cannot) play in Palestine.

Continue reading "What the Mecca Agreement could mean for the future of Palestine"

Posted by MSK at 04:24 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 10, 2007

Independent Jewish Voices

As many have heard and read, on 5 February a number of UK newspapers carried a declaration by a newly founded Jewish group that seeks to challenge the current Jewish establishment in Great Britain.

Continue reading "Independent Jewish Voices"

Posted by MSK at 11:04 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 26, 2007

"From Iraqi society to societies in Iraq" - Some further thoughts

I just published this article on Niqash, but since the guidelines of that project (it is financed by various European foreign offices & U.N. agencies) mandated a very balanced tone and - rightly so - doesn't allow for us editors to engage in conjecture and speculation (however informed & sound) ... I thought I should use Aqoul to (1) point to the article and (2) expand upon some themes.

(The article in question is also my last work for Niqash as the project has ended and there is no telling if there will be any follow-up. I am thus also looking around for "something new", as they say, so do feel free to contact me if you want to hire me.)

Update: Added a few links for further reading (Twice)

Continue reading ""From Iraqi society to societies in Iraq" - Some further thoughts"

Posted by MSK at 01:24 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

January 16, 2007

Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?

A new project, wikileaks.org is out of the bag, ahead of schedule. News leaked of the new site's proposal to unite international cybernerd expertise with political dissidence to create a place where persons can safely post leaked government documents with minimal fear of direct detection. The technical feasability and security value I know not, but here is where they provide basic info, with link to a sample of a leaked document allegedly from the Somali Islamic Courts movement. For MENA-watchers, or more probably US-MENA watchers, it may be a site to keenly watch.

Continue reading "Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:55 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 02, 2007

Eid 'Em & Weep: Was Saddam's Death-Timing Sectarian?

Nir Rosen suggests that the timing of Saddam's death on the Sunni Eid was a sectarian message: as there are no lawful executions on Eid, therefore legally the true Iraqi Eid must be the Shiite one. Is there any merit to this implication, O informed readers? Was it clearly a gottersaddamerung message for the Sunni side of the street? A look and listen at the lynch-mobbish hanging of Saddam (sensitive readers, don't go there) suggests a very sectarian sendoff. Faithful Aqoulite MSK has helpfully made note in comments of one blog and one NY Times account.

Continue reading "Eid 'Em & Weep: Was Saddam's Death-Timing Sectarian?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

December 29, 2006

Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Any Real Meaning in "Moderate" Elections?

A somewhat Arab News-ish article from FT on the Moroccan PM - who's on shaky ground according to the movers and shakers of the Maghreb biz community - comments that the Islamists can't really win in the upcoming elections, given they're structured against them.

I continue to be frustrated with this short-sightedness.

Returning to the question posed in the title, is there any real meaning in "moderate" elections? Am I the only observer that feels this sort of game has the tendency to bring long term discredit on the concept of "secularism"? (well, actually my opinion is that it already has.)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:30 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Something is rotten in the state of Islamist politics

The Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia is one of the two most prominent leaders in Sunni Islam. He might not have the stature of the pope, but when he speaks, people listen. So what does he think is the chief objective of every Muslim?

Could it be:

1. Being a good person, and living in harmony with one's neighbors?


2. Following the five pillars of Islam?


3. Defending Prophet Mohammed against slanderous attacks by enemies of Islam?

If you correctly guessed C, you win nothing - the first two would not have merited a mention here.

Continue reading "Something is rotten in the state of Islamist politics"

Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 10:07 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 27, 2006

You Can't Be Syria's? Ambassador Blogging

The envoy to USA from Syria apparenlty maintains a personal blog. I'll leave it to our distinguished readership to assess the value or lack thereof, and the deeper sociopolitical meaning. In the meantime, I kind of enjoyed his linking to this survey by Sami Moubayed of Syrian women's rights activities (which, I would note, apparently did indeed exist before the Levantine Boadicea of You Tube, Wafa Sultan, so bravely invented them from -- where was it? -- California, circa 2005.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:46 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

December 22, 2006

Emirati Elections

I'm not sufficiently well-versed in UAE politics as to recognize the names of any of the winners in the recently concluded elections there. I am, however, curious about what country last held a vote for parliament in which fifteen percent of those chosen garnered a two-digit number of votes. Let's hope this is the proverbial footstep that begins a thousand-mile journey.

Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 01:54 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 12, 2006

Iraq Budget Woes: Graft, Bureaucracy and Fiefdoms

Came across an article in the NYT reporting that Iraq's 27 ministries were spending as little as 15% of 2006 capital budget allocations for rebuilding. Salient points are highlighted below:

Among reasons for the problems — like a large turnover in government personnel — is a strange new one: bureaucrats are so fearful and confused by anticorruption measures put in place by the American and Iraqi governments that they are afraid to sign off on contracts...

American and Iraqi officials here are also saying that the stringent measures they had favored to slow the rampant corruption may be especially daunting for bureaucrats who have little experience with Western-style regulations and oversight. Those officials say that Iraqis who have seen their colleagues arrested and jailed in anticorruption sweeps are reluctant to put their own name on a contract.

A superficial reading of this article suggests an argument for more loosely regulated bureaucracy to speed up the disbursement of funds. That makes sense if one does not recall the USG CPA audit that revealed misappropriation of about $8.8 billion dollars. Unsurprisingly, the situation in Iraq makes a standard regs vs. no-regs debate a bit complicated.

Continue reading "Iraq Budget Woes: Graft, Bureaucracy and Fiefdoms"

Posted by eerie at 08:04 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

November 14, 2006

Rack Your Brains

In a democracy, the media often twists a reasonable statement into a ridiculous soundbite which gets propagated widely, and causes unnecessary defensiveness on the part of the speaker. A far bigger problem, however, is that not enough people challenge the ridiculous claims of speakers in authoritarian countries (or indeed by speakers in the so-called free world about faraway places that their populations know little about).

Continue reading "Rack Your Brains"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 11:41 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

November 11, 2006

Arab Media: Al Jazeera Newspaper

Likely lost in the American elections noise and the Israeli Gaza invasion, an interesting item reported in the FT among other sources on Al Jazeera planning a competitor to the hoary old pan-Arab dailies, Al Hayat (my personal favourite), Asharq Al Awsat (All Saudi views, all the time...) and of course Al Quds Al Arabi (old school Arab nationalism, I found them shrill and boring when I bothered to read it).

A worthy concept, but I am afraid the very physicalness of newspapers make them too easy to ban (by the way, I remain puzzled why Hayat hasn't been found in Maghreb for decades) or pressure.

Continue reading "Arab Media: Al Jazeera Newspaper"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:55 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

October 22, 2006

Memo from Dubai

It seems worthwhile to draw attention to an interesting article in NYT on Dubai and culture clashes, one which I think despite some superficialities is actually quite interesting. Stemming from a recent local Expat paper's admonishment to respect local culture a bit, it appears to have set off some reaction. I frankly agree with the admonition.

I also found the illustrating image amusing as the inappropriate couple behind the Emirati clique is so very clearly Leb.

Continue reading "Memo from Dubai"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:14 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

October 02, 2006

The reality of Islam and the Republic

I almost missed this fairly important note in the Financial Times on European Islam and the wild-eyed whinging that seems to be becoming the rage in certain circles in North America regarding the Muslim minority in Europe: The reality of Islam and the Republic.

First, the author of the opinion piece, FT’s European Editor, has an excellent summary of the mythology, playing off of a recent publication, Integrating Islam: Political And Religious Challenges in Contemporary France.

Continue reading "The reality of Islam and the Republic"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

October 01, 2006

UAE to hold polls in December

The UAE has announced dates for its first-ever polls. While the elections will do little to alter the balance of power in the country- the voters have been chosen by the rulers of the country's seven constituent emirates, and will only elect half the members of a purely consultative body- this still marks an important step towards increasing political participation.

Continue reading "UAE to hold polls in December"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 10:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 25, 2006

Mubarek is Dead, Long Live Mubarek: the Age of the Neo Mamalike

[Ahem Mubarek is not actually dead, it was a turn of phrase]

I believe it is more or less well known that I am an Egypt sceptic. Indeed, I am an Egypt pessimist.

A pity, as the country could and should be a great nation. However, Egypt is the perfect example in the region of the foreign funded vampire state and the bankruptcy of a short-termist "realist" (or rather fabulism dressed up as realism) policy running to the end of its tether.

I found the more and more open proposition that the Pharoah of the Mamlouks will be succeeded by the Son of the Pharoah of the Mamlouks at once amusing and disturbing. I am sure it will be, when it happens, be accompanied by much prattle on the part of the Americans about the "reformers" in the House of the Pharoah and other empty speeches only convincing to themselves.

Continue reading "Mubarek is Dead, Long Live Mubarek: the Age of the Neo Mamalike"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:08 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

September 11, 2006

Yemeni Cricket? Upcoming Elections

Oh I wish I was in the land of khat and old times there were not forgotten, but I've never been there so I can't say there were old times. But for those to whom it matters, it appears that there are elections looming in the southland. September 20, 2006, to be precise. Will they be meaningful? And will they be cricket? This list suggests that the spirit of Lyndon Johnson may have had a hand in the voter registration process. UPDATE: 50 reported dead at election rally.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:46 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 10, 2006

They'll Estonia When You Try to Trade Some Goods: Transition Model?

Estonia, the Model? (Title apologies to Bob Dylan.) It seems everybody must get Estonia'd. In this excerpt of a behind-the-firewall op-ed by John Tierney in the New York Times, we learn of the transtion from an economically totalitarian society to a free market one in the ex-Soviet state of Estonia. Assuming -- and tragically some you don't, I know -- that a free market-based state and economy is a generally good thing, does Estonia provide an example for MENA (Mideast North Africa) states, and if so which ones? Alas, our main economics contributor in the region is currently bailing out sinking enterprises so the expert answer may be harder to come by. Meanwhile, I suspect Estonia fails as a model.

Continue reading "They'll Estonia When You Try to Trade Some Goods: Transition Model?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

August 27, 2006

Losing and Winning: Constituency Service

Roula Khalaf, who I may add is simply one of the must-read journos on Middle East has a fine profile in FT on Hezbullah's reconstruction efforts

I know from work I am engaged in right now that this will send France, US and others into a tizzy.

But there is no beating them. Quick roll out of Western institutional aid is simply not going to be competitive, because the networks are not there.

Where the damage is, the institutions are Hezbullah.

Continue reading "Losing and Winning: Constituency Service"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:59 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 06, 2006

Sarkozy, Lebanon & French Arabs

[Editor's Note: Our occasional contributor Shaheen sent us this interesting note on Euro-Arab developments re Lebanon and French policy]

French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy's recent remarks about Lebanon (for those who don't understand French, he's basically siding with Israel) infuriated quite a few French Arabs (once more). Yet, the ascending interior minister and probable next president is the story of a big failure from French Arabs' part, first and foremost.

Continue reading "Sarkozy, Lebanon & French Arabs"

Posted by Shaheen at 12:04 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

August 05, 2006

Another death fatwa for the war?

I don't know if MEMRI has translated this one yet.

Continue reading "Another death fatwa for the war?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:12 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 26, 2006

The Lockless Monster: Suez Canal Crisis 50th Anniversary Note

On July 26, 1956, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal Company, the operating company of the Suez Canal. Today's 50th anniversary of the lockless canal's main historical controversy may get lost due to all that noise currently going on over in the Levant. But the Suez Canal Crisis was pivotal for the modern Middle East/North African (MENA) region, climaxing in a war later that year that reoriented fundamental political perspectives and arrangements. By the Crisis's end, the old colonial powers were in full retreat, the superpowers of the US and USSR were the decisive big kids on the block, Israel and Egypt had lost any hope of near-term accomodation, and Nasser had become an area demigod by knowing how to lose on the ground but win in perception. And Ahmed Zaki later got an entire movie to play him, excellently made up as the Big Man by Lebanese makeup artist Marina.

Continue reading "The Lockless Monster: Suez Canal Crisis 50th Anniversary Note"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:31 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

June 27, 2006

Denouncing the 'Islamofascists': Ambivalence & Rhetoric

As any regular reader knows, I rather despise the idiotic term "Islamofascist" as both technically inaccurate (at least for Sunni Islamists) and aesthetically displeasing. A bad, clumsy and frankly dim attempt to dredge up the misty memories of WWII and the 'good fight' against the Nazis. I'd have preferred if its pimps (notably Sullivan, who is often dim in this area) had chosen say a Commie reference, which given Arab Socialist influences on Islamist thinking in areas like economics, would at least have had some relevance to reality.

However, I noted that the controversial Moroccan French language weekly, Tel Quel has in its recent edition adopted the same sort of discourse as illustrated in its cover "The New Fascists".

Continue reading "Denouncing the 'Islamofascists': Ambivalence & Rhetoric"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

June 14, 2006

More Football

It would be very easy to watch the match between Saudi Arabia and Tunisia, the only two Arab teams in the World Cup, and to essentialize based on it. To begin with, no one in the Saudi squad plays for a foreign club - the players do rather well for themselves in their domestic league, which has low standards. The European teams have always been streets ahead of the Arab ones, and even the Sub-Saharan African teams have come impressively far, while the Arabs have lagged behind. Indeed, one would be surprised if the analogy didn't extend to loads of people secretly (or not-so-secretly) hoping the Americans would fail miserably.

Continue reading "More Football"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 12:51 PM | Comments (29) | TrackBack

June 04, 2006

Muslim Women as Victims - Lalami's "Missionary Position"

[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]

In a rather longish piece in the American Leftist dinosaur paper, The Nation, expatriate Moroccan author Laila Lalami takes a whack at one of eerie's favourite topics, Muslim Victim Women Reformers in an arty entitled "The Missionary Position".

While I am not normally inclined to read such things as The Nation, the highlighting by The Arabist were enough to induce a read.

I cannot say that I am a fan of such hackneyed phrases as "supporters of empire", above all when used seriously, but what can I expect out of literary types?

Continue reading "Muslim Women as Victims - Lalami's "Missionary Position""

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:49 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

June 02, 2006

'Strategic Victimhood' in Darfur: Opportunities Lost and Lessons Learned

'Strategic victimhood', not a term one often hears in relation to Darfur, any remotely realistic and undramatic approach to the issue has been met with accusations of cynicism and apathy towards a 'genocidal' campaign rivalled only by Rwanda and Burundi. Thankfully, some voices of reason have recently managed to dodge the simplistic black or white perspective and treat the issue as something other than a good vs. evil classic morality tale.

Continue reading "'Strategic Victimhood' in Darfur: Opportunities Lost and Lessons Learned"

Posted by Meph at 06:44 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

May 29, 2006

Let’s Do the Time Warp, Part II: Russian Homophobia as Mainstream Political Culture

Some months ago, here at Aqoul I debunked Andrew Sullivan’s assertion that the Muslim mainstream is at the forefront of gay-bashing in the Russian Federation.

Well, it seems I was right – on Saturday the Moscow gay community did attempt to carry on with their observance of the 13th anniversary of the decriminalization of homosexuality in Russia, resulting in beatings and scores of arrests (including those of the demonstration’s organizer and some participants, as well as counterdemonstrators), as the Mayor of Moscow had prohibited the demonstration on the grounds that homosexuality is “unnatural,” and was backed up by a court decision last week. Even some members of the Russian gay community had opposed the demonstration, fearing the violence that would result - Russia just isn't in the same sociopolitical place as the handful of industrialized Western countries that have visible gay activist movements, but then those are largely a development of the past couple of decades in any case.

Continue reading "Let’s Do the Time Warp, Part II: Russian Homophobia as Mainstream Political Culture"

Posted by evaluna at 12:20 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

Democracy in the UAE

Just over a year ago, Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum, then the crown prince of Dubai and UAE’s defense minister, and now the UAE’s vice president, prime minister and defense minister of the UAE, and ruler of Dubai, said:

I say to my fellow Arabs in charge: If you do not change, you will be changed… If you do not initiate radical changes, responsibly discharge your duties and uphold the principles of truth, justice and responsibility, your people will resent you. More than this, the verdict of history on you will be severe.

Continue reading "Democracy in the UAE"

Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 12:00 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

May 23, 2006

Morocco The Model! (Or Our Superficial Stereotypes Are Poorly Informed)

I stumbled across a funny (to me) "model" arty in the ideo-rag (I am not a fan of ideological papers) The Weekly Standard after stumbling across this attempt at writing on Islam, Elsewhere in Islam, itself deserving in comment (acerbic but fair comment, as I think the arty needs a whack in the side of the head on some factual and interpretive issues, but it's at least an honest effort): The Moroccan Model: A beacon of hope in the Islamic world.

I am sure regular readers are aware I am a fan of the Maghreb generally and Morocco in particular (although I have a warm spot in my heart for Tunisia as well, and why not Libya and Algeria as well?), so perhaps I should receive a fannish article on Morocco warmly. There is certainly something to be said for noticing that the Islamic or even the Arab or even the Mediterranean Arab world consists of countries besides Egypt and Saudi Arabia. And some of the article I agree with or perhaps better, some of the article did not lead me to think of running the author over with a car to spare the world further ill-informed bad writing.

Continue reading "Morocco The Model! (Or Our Superficial Stereotypes Are Poorly Informed)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:40 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

May 16, 2006

Census and Sensitivities: UAE & Its Minorities

Towards the end of last year, the UAE carried out its first census in 10 years. Given both the rapid demographic changes here and the promises to share the (usually classified) general data collected with the public, things sounded promising- the information gathered would be invaluable to any number of people. As my colleague SecretDubai has documented, things didn't turn out exactly as planned, not least because those being counted feared the enumerators might report them for any number of offenses ranging from cohabitation to various kinds of illegal occupancy, despite government promises to the contrary.

Continue reading "Census and Sensitivities: UAE & Its Minorities"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 12:46 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

May 14, 2006

Arab League

The BBC just ran a very interesting episode of the Doha Debates, a monthly discussion panel examining a motion. Hosted by Tim Sebastian, the combative interviewer whose previous gig was at the BBC's own HardTalk, the episode asked whether the Arab League ought to be disbanded. A clear majority of the people in attendance (and I note here that the elites of Doha are hardly representative of the teeming masses or the governments of the Arab world) seemed to think this was indeed the case. Notwithstanding the entertainment value of watching Qaddafi in a public forum, one is curious as to just what the point of the League really is; its accomplishments certainly haven't been all that spectacular, and its manner of (mal)functioning has annoyed more than one member state. Are there not already enough fora for a dialogue of the deaf?

Posted by dubaiwalla at 02:07 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

May 04, 2006

Sudan Tops Failed States Index

Another season another report. A failed states index compiled by the US Foreign Policy magazine and the US-based Fund for Peace think-tank places Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo atop the list.

Continue reading "Sudan Tops Failed States Index"

Posted by Meph at 12:53 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

April 11, 2006

Morocco: Pimping Pleasure or Stalling Out? (Economist)

The present Economist contains an intriguing article covering part of my brief, and a somewhat neglected corner of the MENA world, Morocco. Morocco attracts rather little attention in the "Anglo Saxon" world, despite having racked up some interesting political and economic wins in the past year, so perhaps a quick commentary then on the article, and the state of things in this rather strategically located country.

Continue reading "Morocco: Pimping Pleasure or Stalling Out? (Economist)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:13 AM | Comments (26) | TrackBack

March 30, 2006

Scionism is Race Schism: Gamal Mubarak & Egypt's Future

This recent report on the scion of the Hosni Mubarak family, the President's son Gamal, suggests that he is increasingly gathering offices in the government's ruling National Democratic Party. This means, according to the perspective offered in that report, that his advantage in a future race for President is assured, dividing internal and external opposition. That development is also augmented by renewed potential charges against jailed never-as-popular-as-hoped electoral challenger Ayman Nour, and the allegedly fleeting nature of previous promised reforms. Is MENA to be relegated to the scions of the previous generations, and is that always bad?

Continue reading "Scionism is Race Schism: Gamal Mubarak & Egypt's Future"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 16, 2006

Democracy as a Weapon

Recently there has been a fair bit of handwringing over both the Hamas victory in the Palestinian territories and the Muslim Brotherhood’s strong showing in Egypt’s parliamentary elections. US policymakers are likely not pleased by the fact that Islamist MPs outnumber secular ones by nearly two to one in Iraq, and that early hopefuls such as Ahmad Chalabi’s Iraqi National Congress bloc failed to secure a single seat in recent elections.

In this context, it is mildly disturbing to see Farhat Asaad, a Hamas spokesman, point out this uncomfortable truth:

"First, I thank the United States that they have given us this weapon of democracy. But there is no way to retreat now. It's not possible for the U.S. and the world to turn its back on an elected democracy."

Continue reading "Democracy as a Weapon"

Posted by eerie at 09:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Contrarian Cartoon Commentary: Mechanics in Politics and Boycotts

Reluctant as I may be to go against my own disdain for the silliness and misdirection of the cartoon protests, I must in good Aqoul tradition be a contrarian even to some trends here.

Well-expressed (though I have many fundamental reservations) is an older Tim Cavanaugh article at Reason on the subject, saying the controversy is on the whole a good thing. But haste and time-constraints make me wish to concentrate on one aspect – one where I feel I can make more of a contribution than my mere better-informed-on-MENA-than-average-Yank-whiteguy status allows.

The silver lining I see has to do with the centrality to political development of the “mechanical” process of politics, with ideology or substantive focus only secondary. In the cartoon reactions, there are real signs of change, potentially for the positive. (I should come back and add links but time constraints are really bad at the moment personally, please be patient.)

Continue reading "Contrarian Cartoon Commentary: Mechanics in Politics and Boycotts"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:55 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

February 15, 2006

Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism

I am not the biggest fan of the US Administration and its Middle East policy, that is certain. Indeed, I rather consider them a bunch of congenital and serial incompetent bunglers whose policies may be described with Talleyrand's "Worse than a crime, a blunder."

One might expect, then, I might be in agreement with the opinions voiced by the Democratic party opposition in this article from Reuters:

US bungles Middle East policy, lawmakers tell Rice
By Sue Pleming

Well, I am not. Sadly the criticism, rather than being well-founded, is largely based on the same kind of simple-minded magical thinking and wishful-thinking-as-analysis that has led the Bush Administration astray so very badly so many times. Criticism about Hamas rather than Fatah winning the elections in Palestine, for example. As if the US has a magic wand to wave to make the 'good guys' of the moment win (or forgetting that using such wands that do exist to achieve 'victory' for one's favoured side can be rather Pyrrhic, ending up with damaged goods).

Continue reading "Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

February 12, 2006

Morocco: Democracy, Facile Journo Idiocy on Moderation and Islamism

As a general matter, English language materials on the Maghreb almost never fail to annoy me. Here The Washington Post manages to do so: Feud With King Tests Freedoms In Morocco.

Having long had ... how to put it? Contact? Yes, contact with the group in question (long story, goes back a long ways), Adl wal Ihsane and been familiar with the Yassines, I have rather mixed feelings about the conflict described in the article. On one hand, being generally in favour of bringing Islamist groups into politics, I am generally in favour of engagement with Adl wa Ihsane. On the other hand, this particular dispute and the disingenous spin the Yassines are using rather annoys - well more the gullible lapping up of the same in certain anglophone quarters rather annoys.

Continue reading "Morocco: Democracy, Facile Journo Idiocy on Moderation and Islamism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:41 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 06, 2006

Cartoon Outrage: Salafist Entrepreneurial Behaviour, Manufacturing Incidents & the Problem of Moderation [Updated]

There seems hardly any reason to provide links to this ever-escalating cycle of utter contemptible idiocy, so let me make this more or less purely opinion and my own personal analysis. I would be remiss, however, if I did not pimp our very own summary page on the Danish – Mohammed Cartoon Controversy.

I also would like to point to a fine round up of online commentary as well as highlight our dear Raf Bey’s contribution: “Why do the Syrians burn embassies but the Iranians don't?” In addition, to return a citational favour well-deserved, I point to Clive Davis’ blog commentary, and in particularly this most recent summary of rational commentary on the riots. One has to agree with his observation that the commentary he cites is “more helpful than one of Christopher Hitchens' thunderbolts on "the case for mocking religion".” Juvenile exercise of expression, but then we should be used to Hitchens being a cretin with regards to the MENA region.

Onward, then.

The Lounsbury Discussion on the Issue

[Update: reading Wikipedia I found an online link - no longer working - to the/an Arabic dossier on the cartoons written by the Denmark group of Imams. Having given it a speed read, it appeared to me that while the dossier was written post-facto to their official meetings, its Arabic text did clearly indicate the incendiary 'extra cartoons' were not published, but were ones received by certain unidentified protest leaders, post their public protests in Denmark. That makes the provence of the cartoons less doubtful to me. The dossier was not inherently unreasonable in tone, although certainly disputable, and clearly reflected an agenda, one which I continue to think reflects the Salafist extremist fringe]

[Update II: A very interesting note thanks to Clive's comment, Danish paper rejected Jesus cartoons; they were apparently offensive and unfunny. Ahem. Well. In other notes re the same article, someone desperately needs to give Muslim activists a lesson in marketing: the European Committee for Prophet Honouring just sounds... silly.]

Continue reading "Cartoon Outrage: Salafist Entrepreneurial Behaviour, Manufacturing Incidents & the Problem of Moderation [Updated]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:04 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

February 05, 2006

"No Offend Chinese Women": Denmark and the Mutation of Organized Protest

Before getting around to a somewhat longer entry or entries on the issue of the efforts to prune Danish blasphemy, let me begin a contrarian line (against the prevailing 'Aqoul trend) by examining a MENA issue in an appropriate place: China. Once upon a time, there was a great movement towards democracy by students in China. It failed at Tiananmen Square but it almost got off the ground. I bring this up because few recall the mass demonstrations by Chinese students a few months earlier around the country (but especially around Nanjing) that started the mass action process. These were not pretty; behavior was riotous and appalling. And the issue was rather vile: "No Offend Chinese Women", you black devils! More vile than the silly "No Offend Prophet Mohammed" over the Danish newspaper cartoons. As the referenced (and accurate) Wikipedia article is quoted below, I ask the question of those with better on the ground knowledge -- does the organiziing of MENA passions in this particular Danish cartoon issue bode well in a "silver lining" sense for creating spontaneously-organized networks of popular voices against repression in the region?

Continue reading ""No Offend Chinese Women": Denmark and the Mutation of Organized Protest"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:45 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

January 29, 2006

Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences

The election of Hamas has set off quite a lot of overdone hand wringing with respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and with respect to 'democracy promotion.'

I am going to ignore the I-P conflict as an endless toothache, although frankly in the medium term this is probably a boon as Hamas seems likely to be a more effective player than the corrupt and broken PLO/Fatah.

Rather, a few words on democracy promotion in the Middle East and North Africa.

The first words are, I am no fan of it, and frankly largely do not believe in it on the terms that it is pimped to the general public, etc. However, the handwringing post-Hamas victory requires some comment.

Continue reading "Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:03 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

January 12, 2006

Democracy, red in tooth and claw

This is an excerpt of something I wrote elsewhere, a retrospective on the Egyptian elections.

"Democracy," said President Anwar Sadat after the suppression of the bread riots of 1977, "has fangs and claws."

In all, only 145 of the NDP's 432 candidates won their elections. But it would be wrong to see this as the mark of a party in crisis. Safwat al-Sherif and Kamal al-Shazli, the NDP's veteran fixers, were soon they were boasting that a further 166 ”independents” had been absorbed into the ranks of the party – just as they had in elections past – giving the NDP its crucial two-thirds majority.

While most have focused, understandably, on the vicious mêlées that marked so much of the voting, the elections provided a brief, illuminating glimpse into the complex dynamics at the heart of the Egyptian political system. The NDP's losses; the Ikhwan's successes; the jostling, hustling bargaining as “independents” were reabsorbed into the NDP: gone were any illusions of party discipline, of manifesto pledges or coherent policies. What remained was a tangled, shifting spider's web of influence, of wasta. Across the country, local luminaries called in favours, leant on allies, bullied enemies and paid hard cash to mobilise whatever support they could.

Continue reading "Democracy, red in tooth and claw"

Posted by yinshuisiyuan at 03:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 30, 2005

Orhan Pamuk and the Turkish Officer

Once a month or so, my good friend Turkish (nickname to be explained shortly) and I meet up for lunch to discuss both local and Mideast politics. Turkish is very serious, intelligent and articulate, the sort of person who thinks more than he speaks and measures every word carefully. He is also an ex-officer in the Turkish military and an avowed Kemalist, which makes for an interesting perspective. Once I asked him what he thought about Kurds and he replied with an enigmatic smile: “Kurds are Turks too, they just haven’t realized it yet”. I think he was joking, but I'm not entirely sure.

When we last met, Turkish author Orhan Pamuk was due to appear in court shortly, charged with the “public denigration of Turkish identity” for making a pointed observation in a Swiss newspaper about his country’s silence over Kurd and Armenian deaths. From FT (subscription, but I quote extensively for the uninitiated):

"Thirty thousand Kurds and a million Armenians were killed in these lands and almost nobody but me dares to talk about it."

His comment referred to the two most traumatic events in Turkey's modern history: the struggle against Kurdish separatism in the 1980s and 1990s and the massacre of Ottoman Armenians by Ottoman Turkish forces as the empire collapsed during the first world war. The Armenian question is especially sensitive in Turkey. Armenians say the event marked the twentieth century's first genocide. Turkey rejects any such assertion, though it does not deny that many Armenians and Turks died in those terrible days…

Mr Pamuk is being tried under article 301 of the Turkish penal code, which criminalises "insulting Turkishness, the republic, and the institutions and organs of the state". If found guilty, he faces three years in jail, part of which is an extra punishment for committing his "crime" abroad.

Continue reading "Orhan Pamuk and the Turkish Officer"

Posted by eerie at 09:33 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

$500,000 Prize for Advancing Freedom

The winner gets $500,000 cash within the next 6 months.

Well, that got your attention. Nominations are being accepted for the Milton Friedman Prize for Advancing Liberty. Previous winners include Hernando de Soto and Peter Bauer. It goes to "an individual who has made a significant contribution to the advancement of human freedom."

MENA-oriented folks like our readership may come up with some deserving person others will not immediately think of. Warning to progressives: the prize-givers take economic liberty in free markets as a vital component of broader liberty. So a successful nominee will probably have made an impact in that area.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 20, 2005

The Semi-Bogus Dilemma of Democracy versus Mosque & State

[A long and boring essay, written with all the arrogance I could muster out of being male, foreign to the region, and American.]

A "Semi-bogus" dilemma, I call it, because the issue of what type of rulers might emerge from real democratic processes in MENA is a fair question. My real target for discussion is more the Western progressive, since those are my own people (though I am more right wing “libertarian” than progressive). I speak about their fears and those of many MENA-ites as well, who express endless reservations about MENA democracy. They do so because democratic empowerment has a real risk of empowering retrograde Islamist/traditionalist forces, e.g. the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. To give away the ending, my message below is basically: shut up and get over it.

My more complex message directed towards MENA-ite advocates of liberal or social democracy is derived from reflections upon the insightful work of Mona Eltahawy regarding Egypt's last election rounds, and the harassment of the Coptic minority. This ugly American’s (meaning me) more complex message to MENA-ites is: don't shut up, but do get over it. . . for now, at least. The following is a look at why.

Continue reading "The Semi-Bogus Dilemma of Democracy versus Mosque & State"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:53 PM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

December 18, 2005

Yemen, Democracy and Stupidity

U.S. Ideals Meet Reality in Yemen
By David Finkel
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, December 18, 2005; A01

An interesting if excessively personalised article on the ludicrous Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) initiative and other US Gov "democratisation" efforts in the MENA region.

Continue reading "Yemen, Democracy and Stupidity"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:53 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

December 13, 2005

Joseph Nye the PR Guy: "Soft Power" in Iraq

Just saw Joseph Nye speak on the subject of “Can Democracy Defeat Terrorism?”, a talk which ended up being mostly about Iraq and what U.S. policy should be in that neck of the woods. "Soft power" is his term for what in other fields of endeavor is sometimes called “hearts and minds,” or maybe “public relations”- the idea that convincing people of the merit of your position by diplomatic means is more effective than doing so by force, and at a lower cost.

Continue reading "Joseph Nye the PR Guy: "Soft Power" in Iraq"

Posted by evaluna at 11:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

December 08, 2005

More on Egypt's Election Dilemma

Mona Eltahawy strikes again with another look at the recent rounds of Egyptian elections and finds not enough to like in either the government or the main opposition. In the latter case, she finds their stand on women's rights frightening even, and especially, when it is advanced by women.

"We must not be silenced out of misplaced sympathy just because . . . the government went out of its way to arrest and harass Brotherhood voters . . . . We condemn the violence and the vote rigging but we must not be guilt tripped into silently accepting the Muslim Brotherhood's positions."

Meanwhile, eight more dead in election related violence.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 23, 2005

The Caucasian Princess and the Seven Persons of Restrictive Growth

The suggested title of Snow White and The Seven Dwarves as it has been deemed offensive to persons of non-snow white complexion (as it is implied that her colour epitomised her beauty) and those shorter than the average. The drive to be politically correct in the United Kingdom has raised some interesting questions about reverse racism and the victimisation of white/christian values versus the sanctifying of minority cultures and religion.

Continue reading "The Caucasian Princess and the Seven Persons of Restrictive Growth"

Posted by Meph at 01:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 15, 2005

Morocco-Sahara issue before US Congress

Sorry to bog down the site with too much contemporary politics and dreaded American stuff, but the Maghreb-oriented readers in the USA may wish to note the following event in Washington D.C.

Thursday, November 17, 2005 1:30 p.m.
Oversight Hearing: Getting to "Yes": Resolving the 30 - Year Conflict over the Status of the Sahara

More below.

Continue reading "Morocco-Sahara issue before US Congress"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:59 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 07, 2005

Arab Media - Arab Sats: Father of Aardvarks (edited)

I would be remiss not to draw attention (although I suspect most 'Aqoul readers are already aware) to Abu Aardvark's article Watching al-Jazeerah.

In that context let me add a few observations:

Continue reading "Arab Media - Arab Sats: Father of Aardvarks (edited)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:47 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

September 18, 2005

Shadid on Iraq: A Contained Civil War?

Anthony Shadid's new book is out, and on TPM Cafe he gives a series of blog entries related to its content on Iraq. Here is one observation, of many, and I would solicit the Aqoul Brains Trust to give us a view of its accuracy and military-geographic-demographic rationale:

On the question of civil war, I don't see a lot of forces working against its intensification. To be honest, there are few national voices in Iraq these days. Ayad Allawi could be suggested as one, but I don't see him playing too great a role right now. Oddly, Muqtada Sadr is probably the figure who most plays up a nationalist discourse. That's in addition to his brand of sometimes messianic, populist religion. Beyond that, it is remarkable the degree to which politics are pronounced in communal terms. If a civil war worsened, I don't necessary see a conflagration. I think you could have an ostensible government in Baghdad, with ministries and embassies around it. In the hinterland, you could have militias staking out turf: Badr, Sadr and so on vying for influence in parts of Baghdad and the south, elements of the insurgency laying claims to land in the west and center, the Kurdish parties competing in the north, with varying degrees of intensity. Their points of intersection would be explosive, though not necessarily numerous.

I suspect he is mostly correct, though I do question whether parts of Baghdad are aptly described as "hinterland".

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:14 PM | Comments (21) | TrackBack

September 05, 2005

Willing. Unwilling. The Pretension of Interest in Democracy & The Middle East

From our dear friend Pratike, who made the error of going to Egypt and Cairo specifically to learn Arabic and thus condemn himself to speaking with a bufoonish accent for the rest of his day, a note on the 'elections' and the pretension that the US Administration is interested in democracy in the MENA region:

His quote from a Washington Post op ed:

Perhaps there is concern that too much pressure on Mubarak might produce a victory by the Muslim Brotherhood, the most popular Egyptian opposition party that has been outlawed by the government. That's a risk, of course, but if the Bush administration isn't willing to let Islamists, even radical Islamists, win votes in a fair election, then Bush officials should stop talking so much about democracy and go back to supporting the old dictatorships. It was precisely that kind of logic -- that friendly dictators are preferable to potentially radical alternatives -- that helped produce so much radicalism during the Cold War and, more recently, a healthy movement of Middle East terrorists.

Well, welcome to reality children. What news.

Continue reading "Willing. Unwilling. The Pretension of Interest in Democracy & The Middle East"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:30 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 29, 2005

Iraq: Lessons from History

Wilson was a confident and bullish colonial official who was wrestling with a serious dilemma. How, under intense international scrutiny, could he control a well-armed society that had become increasingly resentful about the occupation of their country? Wilson himself never found satisfactory answers to this question. On July 2, 1920, a revolt, or thawna, broke out along the lower Euphrates. Fueled by a population resentful at the heavy-handed approach of the occupying forces, the rebellion quickly spread across the south and center of the country. Faced with as many as 131,000 armed opponents, the British army did not regain full control until six months later in February 1921. The cost in lives and money of the revolt made the continued occupation of Iraq very unpopular with British public opinion. It also cost Wilson his job. From 1921 onward the British continually strove to cut the costs of their presence in Iraq. Ultimately the decision was made to extricate themselves from he country as quickly as possible. The result was a failure to build a liberal or even a stable state in Iraq. (Toby Dodge - Inventing Iraq)

This passage gets creepier every time I read it. I’ve mentioned Toby Dodge’s book before, partly for historical value and partly as a cautionary tale for people who can’t grasp the complexities associated with “remaking” a region. The reason I am flogging this dead horse yet again is a recent Washington Post article about the US struggle to foster a liberal democracy in the face of strong ethnic and sectarian pressures:

Continue reading "Iraq: Lessons from History"

Posted by eerie at 03:57 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 22, 2005

Critiquing the Arab World (update link)

A small note of reflection on critiques of the Arab world, Daniel Drenzer’s blog, the weaknesses of the commentary and other points raised.

[An interjection, on reading this AM’s comments and in particular Britt’s mendacious reply, I have to say I was too generous, the fellow is in fact a political hack interested in talking points, not getting up to speed, pity that, but more below.]

Continue reading "Critiquing the Arab World (update link)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:52 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

August 02, 2005

MENA go bragh!

Poet Thomas Lynch in a new book writes that "[m]aybe it is time we looked to Ireland again for some clues to the nature of our ethnic imbroglios, our jihads and holy wars, and to how we might learn to live peaceably in the world with our 'others.'.... For here is a nation with a history of invasion, occupation, oppression, tribal warfare, religious fervor, ethnic cleansing, sectarian violence, and the tyrannies of churchmen, statesmen, thugs and hoodlums. And yet it thrives on a shaky peace, religious convictions, rich cultural resources, and the hope of its citizens."

Continue reading "MENA go bragh!"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:00 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Tsar Mubarek & Reforms for the Neo Mamlouks

An article that merits close reading and attention; in fact I believe it is deeply indicative of the real challenges in Egypt, and in some ways the wider Arab world in regards to transition costs - if in general with moderately less severity.

In Egypt's Countryside, Farmers' Anger Seen As 'Silent Time Bomb'
Recent Revolt Over Rents and Evictions Draws Support of Mubarak Opponents
By Daniel Williams
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, July 17, 2005; A16

I would cite this as something highly indicative of the real position of the Mubarek government as well as the liberal urban classes, what I might call the "kefaya" chattering classes in one of my less charitable moods (although one supposes one can validly ask if I have charitable moods). I mean by that, the generaly comfortable proper liberal opposition who rather uncomfortabley ressemble a similar opposition in the fading years of the tsarist empire in old Russia.

Continue reading "Tsar Mubarek & Reforms for the Neo Mamlouks"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 01, 2005

Sex and Citizenship: Morocco, Jordan, Foreigners Boinking and Children's citizenship

Our industrious friend Abu Aardvark(s) _{(known affectionately in our Maghrebine parlance now, in honour of the second Aardvark as Bou Aradvrak)} had some interesting comments on Morocco's newly announced move, via the Moroccan King's Throne speech this weekend, to change Moroccan law to grant citizenship to the children of foreigners and Moroccan women. This will end, when eventually enacted, decades of paterfamilias centered citizenship policy.

Bou Aradvrak indicated he hoped this would have a positive effect on the Jordanian dynamic where similar liberalisation has been stalled:
Progress for Arab Women & Children as his blog arty is entitled.

Continue reading "Sex and Citizenship: Morocco, Jordan, Foreigners Boinking and Children's citizenship"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:52 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 29, 2005

Furthering Political Integration in the Gulf Cooperation Council

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a grouping of six states on the Arabian peninsula- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE- formed in 1981. Each of the aforementioned states is an absolute monarchy that depends upon hydrocarbons as the primary source of revenue for its rentier economy. The organization’s record on cooperation thus far has been mixed. Significant decisions require the unanimous support of all six member states. The GCC acts an effective bloc only when members’ national interests coincide. However, when consensus cannot be reached, decision-making is blocked.

Continue reading "Furthering Political Integration in the Gulf Cooperation Council"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:45 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

July 07, 2005

An extended comment on IMF, Jordan discussion

As this is rather long for comments, a small entry on the IMF, Jordan and Liberalism discussion based on our esteemed co-author, ridemycamel, who again hopefully will pardon my poor manners, sharp tongue and the like.

I also note that due to popular outcry, I am introducing block quoting. I dislike it, but have to maintain some pretension to customer service or our financier will dump me. (Although it was such a pain to add I can't promise consistancy here)

Continue reading "An extended comment on IMF, Jordan discussion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 06, 2005

Media, Reform, US Gov and Business

On US Gov and Media Reform, an email
I reproduce here an email from a friend of mine in private equity and media in the Middle East, located out there. And an Arab too, not some whinging expat (ahem).

It is lightly edited to scrub certain references and the like, but I share it for its interest. I note that some US Gov types wanted to meet with media actors, including from the business side. I made the introduction. Here is my amigo's note afterward.

Continue reading "Media, Reform, US Gov and Business"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:58 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 04, 2005

IMF, Jordan and Hegemony: A Rebuttal of Sorts (Updated)

Let me engage for the first time a co-author, in particular ridemycamel in regards to his entry on the IMF.

I’ll say first of all it is intelligent, well-written, clear and concise. Incredibly wrong-headed and trapped in leftist twaddle, but well-written. I thank the author in advance for what I am sure will be an interesting reply and while I am going to whack him up side the head a number of times, it is with all due respect.

From the top then:
Financial Aid, the IMF, and Historical Structures: The Case of the Bread Riots in Jordan

Continue reading "IMF, Jordan and Hegemony: A Rebuttal of Sorts (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:56 AM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

July 03, 2005

Cairo's Collapsing Buildings

While being driven past the outskirts of Cairo, I noticed a large number of unfinished buildings inhabited by Egyptian families. My tour guide, having already explained the nightmare of Egypt’s population explosion, told me that these unfinished buildings were actually a form of tax evasion. Apparently land taxes were lower on properties with unfinished buildings, which explained why so many of them had steel rebars and bits of cement hanging off the topmost floors. Keeping a building perpetually unfinished was a useful way to avoid taxes in a country where government spending did not generally lead to improved living standards.

Now anyone familiar with Herodotus knows not to believe everything an Egyptian tour guide says, but it seemed plausible under the circumstances. It did not, however, explain why Egyptians would build such ramshackle homes, structures so unstable that they frequently caved in and killed the families living within them. Some expat journals, noting the frequency of these collapses, lamented the fatalism of Egyptians and their apathy in the face of such tragedy. In terms of incentives, this type of behaviour makes no sense, unless there are serious barriers standing in the way of improvement.

Continue reading "Cairo's Collapsing Buildings"

Posted by eerie at 11:51 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack