Levant Archives

May 09, 2008

Get your Kicks / On Beirut / Sects' Dissects

An open thread for discussion of Lebanon at the crossroads . . . again. And who'd have guessed Nasrallah would provide the fireworks for Israel's 60th anniversary? Followup full posts from our expert team are welcome and encouraged, with removing the horrid tasteless lyrics allusion-pun above from its lead position as added incentive.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:26 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 23, 2008

Another Good Conspiracy Theory Down the Drain

Al Qaeda says an Israeli conspiracy didn't do 9/11. And, it adds, Iran started the Israel conspiracy rumor. Is that itself a conspiracy rumor?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:43 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

Open Thread on Carter, Hamas, and Stuff

Belaboring, distatefully, the last general subject area, we turn to Jimmy Carter's statement that Hamas was ready to accept Israel at some point in some way. Hamas itself seems to disagree. To me, it appears to be a conflict of spin. Hamas will not, for ideological reasons, recognize Israel but they appear to be willing to accept a Palestinian state on 1967 borders, and say they would accept a popular referendum to honor a truce to go no further. With spin, that can be seen as de facto acceptance of the Palestinian Authority's current or future recognition of Israel. Sounds alot like China and Taiwan, actually. (Which situation can erupt at any time, but probably won't as long as mutual prosperity keeps rearing its ugly head.) Anyway, unlike the previous thread where I had a strong opinion and not much time or interest to engage, as I was asserting something obvious, here I am inactive because I have no strong opinion or time, so it is just an open thread for those interested.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:15 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

April 02, 2008

A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It

It being a little quiet around here what with all of us busy and/or lazy, I thought I'd spice it up by going against the usual, and quite healthy, distaste of most Aqoul principals towards wading into the Israel-Palestine morass. Especially as there are anniversaries and such coming up. Anyway, today's lesson comes from a column of Michael Gerson (not a fan, myself, usually) in the Washington Post. It tells of a speech at the Holocaust Museum by an old gentleman, a Mr. Traum, who was once a very young gentleman in Nazified Austria. He recalls various events especially around Kristallnacht in 1938-39. Below the break is a revealing nugget.

Continue reading "A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:37 AM | Comments (74) | TrackBack

January 18, 2008

Lebanon as the new Iraq

Nir Rosen has an exhaustive article on the story of Fatah al Islam in Lebanon and the summer's battle in the Nahr al Barid camp. There's too much to summarize (frankly, I need to read it again to try and get all the moving pieces straight), but his basic conclusion as to who sponsored the group was that both the Syrian government and the Future movement tried to coopt it, but failed to do so, and that the group's real commitment was to an al Qaeda-style global jihad.

The whole article is worth reading (if slightly mind-numbing in its complexity), but I'm just going to quote the concluding paragraphs:

Continue reading "Lebanon as the new Iraq"

Posted by tomscud at 04:18 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

Continue reading "NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 27, 2007

Annapolis Semi-Open Thread

In Annapolis, Maryland, USA, another round of peace efforts commences in the Great Intra-Semite Parking Space Quarrel ("You have 22 other parking spaces!"/ "Well, you're not really a car!"/"God stamped this ticket!"). It -- the conference not the quarrel -- will last for "as long as [Rice] feels there is a good, solid and productive discussion." Have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:43 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

November 11, 2007

Iraq as Lebanon: the Syrian model

Abu Aardvark has recently hosted a discussion by Colin Kahl and Brian Katulis on Iraq policy, (see here, here, here and the Aardvark's response here). It seems as good a place as any to take off on the question of where the "Anbar Awakening" and current US policy in Iraq seems to be heading.

Continue reading "Iraq as Lebanon: the Syrian model"

Posted by tomscud at 05:12 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

November 08, 2007

Jasim & The Argot Naughts: Why That Name in Iraq?

I come up with naught when I search memories of Eastern Mediterranean Arabs and their dialects, patois, and argots, for Jasim and variants as personal names. Yet every single flippin' story from Iraq has someone named Jasim in it. What's the deal with that? (And yes, my worst allusion-pun ever.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:28 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

November 03, 2007

Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington

I have to borrow from the discussion on the previous thread the quotation below. It's from a book review of at-best mixed value but by someone with the knowledge to make the statement. Tell me its assertion is false. Please, God, please......

Continue reading "Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

October 20, 2007

Souq Heil: What's Up With This Cocked-Arm Gesture?

The sunbats are out doing their Islamofascism Awareness week hate-fest, with the usual bigotries and idiocies, but I do have to agree though on the reaction engendered by this photo (I've seen others like it) of what appears to be the Hizbollah 3rd Bandana battalion. Is it what it appears to be -- a militaristic fascist salute, or has it some other significance? UPDATE: With the aid of commenter M, we learn it is indeed a political-militaristic "Roman salute" but apparently a Fascist-era Lebanese custom that transcends sectarian lines (is that a good or bad thing?). Enjoy (thanks M) this collage of Lebanon's main Christian party, and chief Lebanese allies of Israel, doing the Teutonic taxi hail. (Cache it in, before they get hip and delete.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:06 PM | Comments (31) | TrackBack

October 04, 2007

USS Liberty sort-of followup: Chicago Tribune

The Chicago Tribune does a service by giving the USS Liberty-attack veterans a full say. As I discussed many weeks back, the case deserves full fresh investigation. At the time, I shared my own developing conviction that it was more likely than not a case of culpable mistaken identity rather than a willful attack on an American ship (at least when it was ordered). The article erodes that conviction somewhat -- I'll downgrade mistaken identity from "buy" to "hold" -- but essentially the attack-with-foreknowledge argument often goes back to the same flaw: the belief that merely by defeating the "innocent mistake" claims by Israel and Fans, the only other conclusion is Israeli foreknowledge of the ship's American-ness before the attack began.

Continue reading "USS Liberty sort-of followup: Chicago Tribune"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:41 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

September 21, 2007

King Abdallah of Jordan, member of a Bible study group?

I was reading Mother Jones' article about Hillary Clinton's religiosity, surprising in itself when it described how Hillary had been part of the conservative and elitist Bible study group called the "Fellowship" - also known, in an odd mafia-like way, as the "Family". It's not only mere vote-catching for this Democratic candidate formerly known as liberal - asked how her Christian faith had gotten through the Lewinsky-affair, she replied that she had "people whom I knew who were literally praying for me in prayer chains, who were prayer warriors for me."

My astonishment was not to end there.

Continue reading "King Abdallah of Jordan, member of a Bible study group?"

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 05:42 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

September 13, 2007

Iran War On the Way: More Evidence

It appears that I may have been right to call attention to those saying a war on Iran is being rolled out by the Administration. An informed and expert source in DC affirmed it to me as well a few days back. And it looks like the usual suspect sources are now marketing it. (Love the part where we can mysteriously tell that the Germans really want us to attack even as they back away from sanctions against Iran. Saying "no" when they really mean "yes", those Teutonic teases!) Michael Ledeen appears to be the one whose job is to incite the converted; he who says that al-Qaeda and Iran are interchangeable terms and at one point called Dubai, an "Iranian colony". Man, all them dang camel jockeys are the same and interchangeable, and that thinking is how one manufactures a war. Anyway, Aqoulites and Aqoulite wannabes with Iran-specific knowledge are needed to weigh in, now and in the future.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:19 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

September 09, 2007

Quick Roundup of News on Roundups

{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)

Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)

Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.

And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 07, 2007

Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day

Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."

Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"

In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".

Continue reading "Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 25, 2007

Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place

I must say something nice about the Washington Times, which normally has MENA-related fare along the lines of FoxNews and this type of swill. I saw this story a short time back of a travel-writer's visit to Syria in the dead-wood version, but not online. Now I see it is online. Amazingly, the writer actually seems to have taken note of the place and reported it and experienced what normal travelers there would notice, although one might find it too saccharine for its non-comments on the ubiquitous Leader & Family photos, or the pervasive poverty. Still, entitled sincerely and without guile The Kindness of Syrians, it is well done and refreshingly rooted in relevant reality; excerpts for you link-avoiders below the break. (Elsewhere on deeper questions of wealth and poverty, AbuFares has this to say; more on that at another time. Now back to the W. Times.)

Continue reading "Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 13, 2007

A Cheney is only as strong as the weakest link

This American Enterprise Institute resident's expert comments, from circa 1994, are making the rounds, as well they should. Perhaps no one in the current Administration had encountered these thoughts, during the buildup to the Iraq invasion.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 12, 2007

Blacklisting little tiny radical groups

The first thing that came to mind in reading that that the Americans have "blacklisted" a little radical group in a Leb refugee camp was "oh my, I guess they won't be able to launder any assets through buying discounted mortgage assets.... Well, actually that's not true, my first thought was "why do they bother?"

I have no doubt it took more expenditure on the part of the Americans to go through the process, than this little marginal group has ever seen. Freezes their assets.... for a group of flea-like importance relative to US interests. In the Americans fixation in a Comintern / Soviet type threat, they descend into comical acts; wasteful as well.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 10, 2007

Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples

The recent elections in Lebanon (or Leb Land as I like to style it) produced an interesting result although not one of such great surprise, except to perhaps the Tottens and Friedmans of the world, that is, the blow-back of incompetence and utterly delusional policy based on wishful thinking and unresolved contradiction on the part of the Great Power.

The NY Times article is a solid enough and illustrative of some issues long discussed here at Aqoul, notably the severe contradiction between American (but not only American, Western in general) "promotion" of democracy, and inattention to tied-in policies; never mind inability to take an appropriately rational "who's the best long-term bet for our fundamental interests" analytical view of potential allies in region - including the Islamists.

[It has been pointed out in comments that my comments on the article are undermined by the dodginess of the article premise - in particular the reality of the American connexion impact. As I am not watching Leb Land politics with great caution or interest, I'll simply issue this mea culpa for being suckered into ranting on too little basis. This being noted there is much other commentary remaining]

Continue reading "Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:37 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 05, 2007

Honor Off Her: Fadlallah Fatwas Honor-Killing Out of {Shia} Islam

The practice of hyperpatriarchal societies of murdering suspect sexually-impure females, known as honor killing, and prevalent in the MENA region, in the ME far more than the NA parts, has been ruled unIslamic by Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, Lebanon's leading Shiite Muslim figure. (This has appears to me a bit underreported, though to their semi-credit the story is noted by the creepshow bigots at Jihadwatch who then go on to argue that a fatwa against honor killings isn't really a fatwa against honor killings, because well, you know, it, um, well , it, anyway it makes sense to ignorant hate-spewers who claim to "get it" about Muslims, unlike us poor "dhimmis".) The fatwa, as some coverage notes but others in comments report differently, is not replicated much in Sunni circles to date. An analogy may be to southern American Christians who accomodated race-segregation even when some religious were not in favor, out of fear of public prejudice in favor of the practice. In any event, the fatwa's a cool thing, and it did not require the efforts of Irshad Manji. As far as I can tell, no comment by Ayaan Hirsi Ali on this, possibly because it doesn't compute?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:48 PM | Comments (37) | TrackBack

July 31, 2007

Weapons for Everyone

As you might already have read, the United States has announced a massive arms package covering Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf countries. Guardian columnist Brian Whitaker, a Middle East expert, believes the deal is a bad idea, as it will inflame Sunni-Shia tensions throughout the region. While I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Whitaker, I must respectfully disagree with him and say I consider the deal a good idea overall.

Continue reading "Weapons for Everyone"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:36 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

June 21, 2007

Lebanon: a security archipelago

Jim Quilty has an excellent overview of the current situation in Lebanon at Middle East Report Online, weaving commentary on the security situation in the Palestinian camps into an analysis of Lebanon's overall security and state system.

In particular, he critiques the emphasis some parties put on the Palestinian camps' exceptional character as "security islands" where the state has been historically unable to exert authority:

Finally, speaking of the camps as “security islands” reinforces the fiction that the Lebanese state has forever yearned to assert full sovereignty over the entire country. In practice, the decentralized administration of the Palestinian camps has been just one variation on a theme of rule whereby the Lebanese state effectively outsourced its responsibilities and prerogatives. By this system, confessional politicians dispense services like health care and garbage removal to their constituents as patronage. In the period of Syrian hegemony over Lebanon, local security was delegated to different political groups on a case-by-case basis depending on their relationship with Damascus. In areas where Damascus' allies held sway -- from Druze lord Walid Jumblatt (before he shifted to the “Syria out!” side in 2005) to Hizballah (Jumblatt's present bête noire) -- groups minded their own turf, with or without the cooperation of the state security apparatus. Where banned “anti-Syrian” groups held sway, Syrian secret police were particularly overbearing. Far from exceptional, then, “security islands” like Nahr al-Barid were, and are, simply part of the archipelago that is post-civil war Lebanon.

Continue reading "Lebanon: a security archipelago"

Posted by tomscud at 03:35 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

June 18, 2007

Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath

Monty Python's Life of Brian meets real life as this woman gets to speak in public as if she knows what she is talking about. Saracen-slayer Ayaan Hirsi Ali was speaking at the National Press Club and I accidentally heard it on the radio. At first I didn't know who it was until a stream of simple-minded inanities about Islam versus the West narrowed it down fast. No transcript available, only memory, but I had to belly-laugh and nearly spew as she explained Islam's rigidly came from the fact that it takes its Scriptures as literal and divinely authored unlike, um, Christianity. In the Christian Scriptures, she explained, the books are not fixed as being written by God, but are said to be written "by people . . . like Paul . . . and Deuteronomy." (That's exactly what I heard, folks.) What an expert guide for us on religion and progress! O, why did I have to be a Monty Python fan?

Continue reading "Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:30 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

June 16, 2007

Gaza Stripped: Two Demi-Quasi-States, One People

It appears the folks who rather justly complain of having no country, now appear to have two. Well, three, if you count the old Likudnik view of Jordan. Or in the negative numbers, if reality functions as a point of reference.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:59 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

June 05, 2007

USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly.

Among the Mideast Six-Day War's 40th anniversary issues will be the June 8, 1967 attack by Israeli military forces on the USS Liberty, an American naval intelligence ship. In international waters near Egypt's Sinai peninsula, the vessel was torpedoed by Israeli Navy vessels, following repeated strafings/napalmings by Israeli Air Force planes. A special remembrance was held at the Navy Memorial (7th and Penn) in DC on June 8. Despite my own newer conclusion that the incident was indeed a result of Israeli errors, rather than an assault with foreknowledge of the ship's American nationality, I do think the incident should receive long overdue U.S. public investigation and hearings .

Continue reading "USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 AM | Comments (27) | TrackBack

May 23, 2007

Keep your Sunni side up: Lebanon conspiracy theory #637

Seymour Hersh propounds this conspiracy theory of sorts regarding the rise of Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon. I don't buy it offhand, but there's plausibility in a Saudi role in promoting Sunni anti-Shiite counterweights, with US winks and nods. Any takers?

What I was writing about was sort of a private agreement that was made between the White House, we're talking about Richard -- Dick -- Cheney and Elliott Abrams, one of the key aides in the White House, with Bandar. And the idea was to get support, covert support from the Saudis, to support various hard-line jihadists, Sunni groups, particularly in Lebanon, who would be seen in case of an actual confrontation with Hezbollah -- the Shia group in the southern Lebanon -- would be seen as an asset, as simple as that....There is a supreme overwhelming fear of Hezbollah and we do not want Hezbollah to play an active role in the government in Lebanon and that's been our policy, basically....

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (42) | TrackBack

May 09, 2007

Why Israel is doing Arabs a favor by ignoring the Arab Peace Initiative

Because Arabs can score some PR points out of it, but would face the tough issue of dealing with it if they had to sit and really negotiate it. Or worse, find some formula about refugees that one of our duces would think is a face saving one and come to have to actually implement it. Of course, if we were smarter, it wouldn’t be a tough point at all. But see, in negotiations, we’re idiots.

I know this entry comes a bit late, the Arab Peace Initiative has been put back on the table several weeks ago already, but I felt inspired by a recent discussion of it with a concerned friend. At the beginning of the Oslo process, when Israelis were sending delegations of the finest international law and negotiations experts, Palestinians were sending teams of little bullies, thinking that the kafya military green wearing Sopranos would be as good with their brains as they are with their muscles.

Continue reading "Why Israel is doing Arabs a favor by ignoring the Arab Peace Initiative"

Posted by Shaheen at 12:50 AM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

May 07, 2007

Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union

Sarkozy’s proposal of a Mediterranean Union have been discussed a lot by French media, but with little substance. The fact is, there aren’t many details in the proposal anyway. From his party’s website:

Je favoriserai le développement des pays pauvres, en cessant d’aider les gouvernements corrompus, en mettant en place une Union méditerranéenne avec les pays du Sud

I will favor the development of poor countries, by stopping aid to corrupt governments, by creating a Mediterranean Union with southern countries

Since most countries of the South happen to be Arab and corrupt regimes, I wonder how his pro-colonial, pro-Israeli, “anti-corrupt” attitude is going to help him cooperate in building any kind of union with them.

Continue reading "Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union"

Posted by Shaheen at 02:54 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

April 28, 2007

France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy

As per The Lounsbury's suggestion, and following Ibn Kafka's extensive coverage of French elections, here are my two cents about them, Beurs, France and the MENA region and related economic bits.

Sunday's [May 6th] second round will most probably bring Sarkozy to French presidency. I have to say I'm very mixed up about this election. This round's vote is a matter of either gambling on Sarkozy, and risking what happened with Arab Americans, who happen to have voted George Bush in 2000, or choosing an economically destructive but marginally more risk averse community-wise choice with Segolene.

Continue reading "France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy"

Posted by Shaheen at 04:21 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 11, 2007

What the Mecca Agreement could mean for the future of Palestine

The Mecca Agreement, signed by the leaders of Hamas and Fatah on 9 February, elicited much hope: that it will end the mini civil war in Gaza, which had begun to spread to the West Bank; that it will lift the international sanctions on the PA government; that it would force Israel to return to the negotiation table.

So far, the first target seems to have reached as the fighting has stopped. Of course, only in a few weeks will we know if the cessation of violence is permanent and can be sustained.

On the second and third targets the verdict is still out. The agreement has been received very cautiously, with the general comment being "Let's first see if the new government will conform to all demands by the International Quartet." The main, thorny issue is that of recognition of Israel and all agreements signed by the PLO.

One thing that hasn't been talked about is just what the new "government of national unity" means for the Palestinians ruled by it, and what the distribution of ministries will mean for the role that both Hamas and Fatah can (& cannot) play in Palestine.

Continue reading "What the Mecca Agreement could mean for the future of Palestine"

Posted by MSK at 04:24 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

January 06, 2007

What's with Ismail Haniyeh's new headdress?

When I saw the photos of the meeting between Palestinian prime minister Ismail Haniyeh and his president Mahmud Abbas, I was surprised to see Haniyeh wearing a red kuffiyah. And it wasn't a one-time occurrence, either. (Although he still seems to get used to it.) Now, I know he just went on hajj and hence has shaved his head ... but still, I wonder if his change of appearance has any larger significance.

Continue reading "What's with Ismail Haniyeh's new headdress?"

Posted by MSK at 02:25 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

December 27, 2006

You Can't Be Syria's? Ambassador Blogging

The envoy to USA from Syria apparenlty maintains a personal blog. I'll leave it to our distinguished readership to assess the value or lack thereof, and the deeper sociopolitical meaning. In the meantime, I kind of enjoyed his linking to this survey by Sami Moubayed of Syrian women's rights activities (which, I would note, apparently did indeed exist before the Levantine Boadicea of You Tube, Wafa Sultan, so bravely invented them from -- where was it? -- California, circa 2005.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:46 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

December 19, 2006

Another Woman Put In Her Place in Saudi Arabia?

Oh, wait, sorry. It's not Saudi Arabia. Culture shock for an American female visitor:

A woman...reported a vicious attack by an ad-hoc "modesty patrol" on a...bus last month...[She says] she was slapped, kicked, punched and pushed by a group of men who demanded that she sit in the back of the bus with the other women...She rode the bus daily to...pray at sunrise...Women usually sit in the back, while men sit in the front, as a matter of custom.

Where's Rosa Parks when you need her?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:11 PM | Comments (21) | TrackBack

December 04, 2006

Fun with Labels: Protest, Opposition, Siege, and/or Coup d'Etat in Lebanon

Even if one man's protest is apparently another man's attempted coup, there's still something just a little bit off about the rhetoric surrounding recent events in Lebanon. Commentators are at pains to distance what is happening now from what happened when the March 14th movement (or Cedar Revolution, if you prefer) peacefully camped out in downtown Beirut. It would be impossible to track down every instance of the sort of rhetoric I'm talking about, but Abu Kais, currently guest-blogging for Michael Totten, is a pretty representative example, referring to the situation as an "occupation of downtown Beirut" and a "coup attempt". And, our own Lounsbury has already posted on similar framings over on ...Or Does it Explode? that amount to: "How dare people we don't like use non-reprehensible tactics? Bad people should only use bad tactics!"

Continue reading "Fun with Labels: Protest, Opposition, Siege, and/or Coup d'Etat in Lebanon"

Posted by homais at 03:11 AM | Comments (85) | TrackBack

November 21, 2006

Lebanese Logic Returns to Lebanon

Afraid this is a rather nasty turn for my second favourite destination (or maybe third, but in any case of the favourites) in MENA land, Lebanese Christian [Maronite] cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel whacked in assassination jobby.

Smart money would likely bet on Syria being stupid again, but on the other hand the Gemayel have no lack of enemies either.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:40 AM | Comments (31) | TrackBack

October 16, 2006

Backers of Dovish American Jewish Initiative Deny Opposing AIPAC

When JTA ran a story last week about an initiative backed by George Soros (or not yet backed if you believe Rosner's reports below) and other powerful dovish American Jewish leaders, it noted that one of the purposes of the initiative would be to present a progressive counter to AIPAC. All of this seems perfectly reasonable to any reasonable American Jew. But the 900lb gorilla Goliath has taken notice of little David standing beneath him and he's roared his annoyance. As a result, it's humorous to see the erstwhile progressives scurrying like ants to backtrack:

Jewish organizational officials who have participated in the meetings said JTA's characterization of their aim in a story earlier this week, as an alternative to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, was wrong...

Those currently leading the effort say they're happy to work with AIPAC.

"My involvement is that Mort Halperin's an old friend," said Mel Levine, a former U.S. Democratic congressman who is now a high-powered West Coast lawyer. "Mort asked me to go to an initial exploratory meeting about a pro-Israel advocacy organization that would focus on a two-state solution, that would focus on Israel and was not in competition with anyone else."

That did not usurp AIPAC'S role of advocating for a strong U.S.-Israel alliance, Levine said.

Continue reading "Backers of Dovish American Jewish Initiative Deny Opposing AIPAC"

Posted by Richard Silverstein at 08:09 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

September 25, 2006

Leb Land & Recon, Back to Networks

Returning to a hint I made a month ago, I find on the newswires confirmation of the scheming re buying some street cred in Lebanon after the disastrous backing of 'transformation via Israeli shells' did such a lovely job of fucking American reputation into a cocked hat.

The USD 250 million of course is better than zero, but I am having a hard time seeing effectiveness given zero on the ground networks.

Hezbullah won, and even the backstopping effort isn't very good.

[Updated with links to actual entries supra, just to prove The Lounsbury is ahead of the curve]

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:17 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 27, 2006

Losing and Winning: Constituency Service

Roula Khalaf, who I may add is simply one of the must-read journos on Middle East has a fine profile in FT on Hezbullah's reconstruction efforts

I know from work I am engaged in right now that this will send France, US and others into a tizzy.

But there is no beating them. Quick roll out of Western institutional aid is simply not going to be competitive, because the networks are not there.

Where the damage is, the institutions are Hezbullah.

Continue reading "Losing and Winning: Constituency Service"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:59 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 16, 2006

Rubenesque Conflict Seeks Single, Professional, Peacekeeping Force

Judging by these John Bolton (US Representative to UN) comments and the other background activities, it appears that no nation or force or combination of them is stepping up to volunteer to be the blessed armed peacemakers between Israel and Lebanon. Where are the Gurkhas when you need 'em? Or the French foreign legion, especially as the French were so active in putting this cease-fire plan together? Amazing, isn't it, that Israel and Lebanon are such great traditional tourist destinations, but for some reason the border between them just doesn't get the eager traffic you'd expect, even with the free (for spectators) fireworks displays.

Continue reading "Rubenesque Conflict Seeks Single, Professional, Peacekeeping Force"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:11 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

August 13, 2006

15 ways of looking at a ceasefire

With the Israeli and Lebanese governments officially approving the ceasefire (as of 8 AM local time tomorrow), and Hizbullah indicating that it will respect ("with reservations") its outlines, the question arises, "who won?" Let's ask the blogosphere.

Continue reading "15 ways of looking at a ceasefire"

Posted by tomscud at 10:41 AM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

August 12, 2006

Lebanon: UN Resolution 1701

CNN (and many other news services) has the text of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which appears to be at least tentatively agreed upon by the governments of Israel and Lebanon (and presumably wouldn't have been agreed upon by the Leb government unless it thought Hizbullah could be brought on board), although Israel has apparently decided that it can't decide on the Sabbath whether to stop attacking.

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August 11, 2006

Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)

The rising chorus of commentators horrified at the American-Israeli desire to play a self-indulgent Thelma & Louise drive-off-the-cliff policy in MENA continues to grow.

Ranging from a late echo to my own "Guns of August" allusions, in the Washington Post yesterday (although the lunatic Thelma & Louise approach is reaffirmed by Gingrich and Krauthammer today), to Roula Khalaf's analysis in the Financial Times last week, to intelligent Israeli analysts realising that this 1982 business is not going to get any better, whatever the utterly magical thinking going on in Bush and Olmert governmental quarters, to The New York Times (in a generally decent if somewhat superficial review) noting the disastrous impact this useless war is having on American policy interests.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 10, 2006

More Death in the Levant: A Personal Note

David Lelchook was cut down by a Hizbullah rocket landing in or around Kibbutz Sa'ar, Israel on August 2. He was bicycling, unsuccessfully, to a bomb shelter. The rest of his family had relocated to the south for safety. He was hit by the explosive force of the random projectile. I didn't know him or his views, but I have known his sister for quite some time. Reading the latest news the other day, David's rare surname jumped out. A phone call confirmed the relation.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Of, by and for the Lebanese

Michael Young has an article in the upcoming New York Times Sunday magazine discussing Lebanon's politics, the rise of Hizbullah, and the nature of the conflicting visions for the country. It's a good piece, and very different from much of Young's output over the past couple years. There's a sense of humility to it, and a willingness to look at the warts on "his" side of the equation as much as on the other side.

The main thing that sets it apart from so much of the commentary on the war is a willingness to look at Hizbullah as a Lebanese phenomenon, run by Lebanese with a vision of what Lebanon ought to be, and responding to Lebanese circumstances. This is something I was getting at back at the war's start, and which raf picked up on in his analysis. And it's the kind of thinking that is the only way that Lebanon is going to be able to get itself out of the mess it will be in, even after the bombs stop falling.

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Posted by tomscud at 06:46 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

August 06, 2006

Sarkozy, Lebanon & French Arabs

[Editor's Note: Our occasional contributor Shaheen sent us this interesting note on Euro-Arab developments re Lebanon and French policy]

French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy's recent remarks about Lebanon (for those who don't understand French, he's basically siding with Israel) infuriated quite a few French Arabs (once more). Yet, the ascending interior minister and probable next president is the story of a big failure from French Arabs' part, first and foremost.

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August 05, 2006

Another death fatwa for the war?

I don't know if MEMRI has translated this one yet.

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August 03, 2006

Creative Destruction & Own Goals - "The New Middle East is Already Dead"

Text: "Uncle Sam wants to 'educate' our political parties"
TV: "War in Lebanon - Massacre"
US: "Lesson 1, turn off the telly."

The entry title comes from a radio report I just heard on RFI. The above is from a Moroccan business journal online, l'Economiste, normally a fairly liberal publication. Fairly amusing in the end, and illustrative of the spill over effects of the public US diplomatic position.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:55 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 02, 2006

Letter from Hizbullah to Israel

Recently received intelligence via my Hamas contact, Mel Gibson*, in which it was learned that Hizbullah has sent a "thank you" letter to Israel. Text follows.

* Expelled for intoxication.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:27 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 01, 2006

Baalbek (Updated: 2 Aug)

The madness continues.

Sats (Arab and Euro) are reporting Israel is attempting an air-mobile operation in Baalbek (Mid-Lebanon, Beqaa).

The sole value in this entire madness is a near perfect illustration of tactical considerations, poor leadership and domestic politics getting the better of cold-blooded rational calculation of state interest.

[Update: watching Hezbullah spokesman on al Jazeerah, I found it interesting that in ranting on about Arab occupied lands he finessed the issue of Israel - i.e. cited Golan, Chebaa, Gaza, but not Israel qua Israel. Artful that was. Added further, caught on BBC World Service interview w Leb rep, who ostentatiously refused to take a bait to whinge on about Syria but was highly US critical]

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:19 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 31, 2006

The Economic Side of the Lebanon War

A bit back on my sub-blog I shared some musings on the economic impact of the conflict, which perhaps should be highlighted as the dogs of war are clearly out of the control of their master, and as dogs are wont to do, rather running amok against their own interests.

Some thoughts then on the impact of war regionally, from an economic perspective, and related thoughts on where the various markets may head. Very much seat of the pants by the way, and not profound.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:44 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

Gross Incompetence & Contempt: Blindness on Lebanon

Although the macabre dance that is the war in Lebanon continues a depressingly predictable shuffle, the utter dilettentism that is the current American administration's diplomatic efforts - although efforts almost grants their clumsy, amateurish statements and reactive myopia too much dignity - continue to be breath taking. This AM, after the fine little Qana Bis blowing up of little girls (unsportingly exceeding certain understandings), I find myself greeted by the news that the amazingly incompetent Rice - I do officially take back everything positive I said with respect to her - suddenly finding that the time is right for a ceasefire. I am not sure that circumstances more detrimental to the image of the Americans in the region could have been fabricated by an enemy (except perhaps a 'transformation' statement). Of course, to be fair, at least she had that modicum of sense to stop the "permanent conditions" as a "pre-condition" idiocy.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:36 AM | Comments (5) |