Levant Archives

March 07, 2012

On Israel & its American tropes, re Iran

The Economist Blog on America has a wise comment, in Israel, Iran and America: Auschwitz complex | The Economist that is rather more intelligent the normal idiocy that is written about Israel

But Israel has even less control over its own destiny than Portugal or Britain do. The main reason is that, unlike those countries, Israel refuses to give up its empire. Israel is unable to sustain its imperial ambitions in the West Bank, or even to articulate them coherently. Having allowed its founding ideology to carry it relentlessly and unthinkingly into what Gershom Gorenburg calls an "Accidental Empire" of radical religious-nationalist settlements that openly defy its own courts, Israel is politically incapable of extricating itself. The partisan battles engendered by its occupation of Palestinian territory render it less and less able to pull itself free. It is immobilised, pinned down, in a conflict that is gradually killing it. Countries facing imperial twilight, like Britain in the late 1940s, are often seized by a sense of desperate paralysis. For over a decade, the tone of Israeli politics has been a mix of panic, despair, hysteria and resignation.

No one bears greater responsibility for the trap Israel finds itself in today than Mr Netanyahu. As prime minister in the late 1990s, he did more than any other Israeli leader to destroy the peace process. Illegal land grabs by settlers were tolerated and quietly encouraged in the confused expectation that they would aid territorial negotiations. Violent clashes and provocations erupted whenever the peace process seemed on the verge of concrete steps forward; the most charitable spin would be that the Israelis failed to exercise the restraint they might have shown in retaliating against Palestinian terrorism, had they been truly interested in progress towards a two-state solution. Mr Netanyahu believed that the Oslo peace agreements were a mirage, and his government's actions in the late 1990s helped make it true.

Having trapped themselves in a death struggle with Palestinians that they cannot acknowledge or untangle, Israelis have psychologically displaced the source of their anxiety onto a more distant target: Iran. An Iranian nuclear bomb would not be a happy development for Israel. Neither was Pakistan's, nor indeed North Korea's. The notion that it represents a new Holocaust is overstated, and the belief that the source of Israel's existential woes can be eliminated with an airstrike is mistaken. But Iran makes an appealing enemy for Israelis because, unlike the Palestinians, it can be fitted into a familiar ideological trope from the Jewish national playbook: the eliminationist anti-Semite.

I believe this hits the current situation head on - and also highlights the madness that this dead-end might pull in the last super-power into a mad bit of co-enablement and suidice pact (not nuclear holocaust, but security over-reaching touching off a Gulf region war that is not needed or useful, spiking oil prices into a deadly range) 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:55 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

May 15, 2011

The GCC Monarchies Demarche (Jordan and... Morocco???)

Catching up on this piece of strange news, FT reported that the GCC had extended invite to Morocco and Jordan to join the GCC...

The Gulf Co-operation Council could be turning itself into the club of Arab monarchies as it considers bringing Jordan and Morocco into its fold, a move that would strengthen the political and economic capacity of the two countries’ leaders to fend off any popular challenge.

In a surprise announcement late on Tuesday, the GCC, which joins six oil-producing Gulf Arab states, said it was considering a request by Morocco and Jordan to join the bloc, even though the two poorer countries have little in common with existing members.

Following a GCC summit in Riyadh, Abdullatif al-Zayani, the secretary-general, said foreign ministers would be holding talks with the two non-Gulf countries to complete the procedures required for membership. It is not yet clear if membership will be granted or in what form.

The GCC was formed in 1981 in the wake of the Iranian revolution as an alliance of oil-producing monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.

This is, quite frankly, nonsensical. There is perhaps some vague Association logic with Jordan. But ... Morocco???

FT.com in its follow up only raises more questions in the later case 

Now, after decades of canny diplomacy and shifting loyalties, Jordan is finally preparing to enter what many in the country see as the safest harbour in the entire Middle East: the Gulf Co-operation Council, the alliance formed by the conservative, oil-drenched monarchies along the Persian Gulf.

According to analysts, the move would answer an old dilemma: “Since the collapse of Iraq [in 2003], Jordan has been very much left out in the cold. This move means that Jordan would become part of a collective – economically, politically and strategically,” said Nawaf Tell, the director of the Jordanian Center for Strategic Studies and a former diplomat.

Jordan was invited to the join the Gulf Co-operation Council only this week, along with Morocco. But while Moroccan commentators reacted with surprise to the announcement, saying they were unaware the country had applied in the first place, the response in Jordan was one of unconcealed delight.

At least Jordan has some direct cultural and geographic touch on GCC. Politically, however, I do not see this as being all that genuinely helpful to the Hashemite Monarchy, nor economically. The deep logic really escapes, although in some ways it is a better fit than Yemen.

The Moroccan side is just in the realm of bizarre, however, and I am actually stunned that the Palace pursued such a demarche (did they?)

In Morocco, analysts agree that closer association with the Gulf oil producers will bring economic advantages. But they also point out that the proposal has no geographical logic and appears to be politically driven.

“We were all very surprised by this,” said Nadia Lamlili, editor-in-chief of Economie et Entreprises magazine in Casablanca. “I’m not sure it has really been thought through,” she added.

Morocco has historically been part of the regional Arab Maghreb Union, which includes Algeria, Tunisia and Libya but has never made much progress towards economic integration, hampered especially by long-standing political problems between Morocco and Algeria.

A Moroccan source close to the palace emphasised on Thursday the historical association between Morocco and Gulf monarchies and said the GCC invitation should be seen in a long-term, strategic perspective, but not as preparing the way for an alliance among monarchies.

Well, actually I doubt such an association even brings any economic advantages, given the inability of the Gulf investors to really get their heads around the fact that Maghreb works differently than the Gulf or Machreq.

Going to have to talk to my palace friends to see what the take is - I wonder if on GCC got out ahead of where Morocco really is, given the upcoming constitutional reforms, etc.

For once I sympathise with otherwise somewhat annoying and tedious 20 February Movement.

Morocco’s February 20 Movement, which has been pushing for political reform, was sceptical. Osama El Khalifi, one of the movement’s founders, said the proposal looked like an attempt “to build a coalition against countries that have succeeded in making a change”.

That assessment is shared by many Jordanians. “The reading many people here have is that this is the [Arab] kingdoms trying to stand together against the Arab spring and the Arab revolution,” the Amman-based western envoy said.

Politically I don't think this is really helpful at all for the monarchy in Morocco.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 29, 2010

Turkey & the old empire (Turkey and MENA)

Slyly referring in the title to some of the crazed political commentary coming out of hard right Israel circles, but I genuinely find this interesting. The Turkish business engagement with MENA has been building since before our AKP fellow, a natural development.

As Turkey Inches Eastward, Syrians Feel the Love - NYTimes.com

GAZIANTEP, Turkey — Well-heeled Syrians had already been coming to this ancient industrial city, drawn here by Louis Vuitton purses and storefront signs in Arabic. But local shop owners say Israel’s deadly raid on a Turkish-led flotilla to Gaza in May has solidified an already blossoming friendship between Syria and Turkey, the new hero of the Muslim world.

“People in Syria love Turkey because the country supports the Arab world, and they are fellow Muslims,” Zakria Shavek, 37, a driver for a Syrian transport company based in Gaziantep, said as he deposited a family of newly arrived shoppers from Aleppo, which competes with Damascus for the title of Syria’s largest city and is about a two-hour drive from here. “Our enemy in the world is Israel, so we also like Turkey because our enemy’s enemy is our friend.”

The monthly pilgrimages of tens of thousands of Syrians to this southeastern Turkish city — which intensified after the two countries removed visa requirements last September — are just the latest manifestation of the growing ties between Turkey and Syria, part of the Turkish government’s efforts to reach out to its neighbors by using economic and cultural links to help it become a regional leader.

Turkey’s shift toward the Muslim world — from the recent clash with Israel to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s description of Iran’s nuclear program as peaceful — has prompted concerns in the United States and Europe that Turkey, an important NATO ally, is turning its back on the West.

But in Turkey, where 70 percent of all exports go to Europe, businesspeople insist that the government’s policy of cultivating friendly ties with all neighbors reflects a canny and very Western capitalist impulse to offset dependence on stagnating European markets while cementing Turkey’s position as a vital economic and political bridge between east and west.

Emphasis added. Quite so. I recall again a recent conversation with American diplomats that I ran into that were in high dungeon after snubs to some Israeli delegation that they - the Americans - were pimping in the region. Leaving aside the queerness of why the Americans were so very solicitous of an Israeli delegation's meetings (they do seem to forget it is a foreign country, and one never sees quite this solicitousness for other allies), their view that Turkey was 'turning against them' was just boggling. As was their apparently genuine surprise at the reaction to the Gazan flotilla event (as if one of their own citizens had not been killed, well one of the wrong religion and ethnicity it would appear); entire and myopic misread of the Turkish relationship and influences.

Indeed, most Arab states, including Syria, enthusiastically support Turkey’s bid to join the European Union, viewing Turkey as a vital intermediary to Western markets that might otherwise be off limits. At the political level, Turkey’s influence in the Middle East is also deeply enhanced by its strong Western ties — a fact recognized by Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, who shocked many in the Turkish capital this month by warning that the latest crisis between Israel and Turkey could undermine Ankara’s role as a mediator in the region.

I also believe this is largely true. 

While it is a bit of journalistic .... shiny new objectism to point to this as entirely new after the Gaza debacle, there is certainly a real development. Shall try to return to further comment on the article, unfortunately on a plane the next two days.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 20, 2010

Leb Land & Gas

No not from badly cooked falafel but off-shore natural gas. It is hard to know what to make of this, but one does rather think this will eventually become the excuse of another Leb-Israel showdown (taking the idiocy of the autistic Israeli government as a given for the next few years).

FT.com / Middle East - Gas field threatens fresh Lebanon-Israel dispute

Gas field threatens fresh Lebanon-Israel dispute

By Ferry Biedermann in Beirut

 

Trouble is brewing in the waters off the coast of Lebanon and Israel about the future of one of the largest discoveries of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean.

A field known as Leviathan might contain 16 trillion cubic feet of gas – enough to serve Israel’s domestic needs and make the country a substantial exporter.

However, on the Leb side, even if a deal were worked out, given Lebanese public governance (if that is not an oxymoron), one does rather suspect that the benefits would mostly accrue to the Plastic Surgery Crowd (for all that a disciplined pay-down of their public debt would be wiser).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 04, 2010

The Occupation? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller.

Astonishingly overlooked in past-decade MENA development reflections has been Jewish-Arab concord evident in the 2008 election of celebrity Ben Stein as Palestinian Authority Prime Minister.

Some memorable moments:

A) PM Stein and a panel of foreign affairs scholars judging an American Idol-style remake of Win Ben Stein's Money (scroll down for photo).

B) PM Stein explains the difficulties of settlement incursions to a Western aid official over a Starbucks.

C) Stein lets loose in Vegas for a last hurrah just before heading over to Palestine for his swear-in.

B) Of course, who can forget Prime Minister Stein's poignant narrative video of the Palestinian Nakba (refugee catastrophe) of 1948.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 28, 2009

Wehbe 2.0: A Whiter Shade of Palestinian?

(Apologies to Procul Harum (Haram?) for whom, unlike the Palestinians, 1967 was good year.) With a lot less denial than the late Michael Jackson, Palestinian women are reported to be aggressively consuming skin-whitening products. This, according to The Christian Science Monitor, which also cites and links to the recent lament about anti-dark skin sentiment among Arabs written by Nesrine Malik in the Guardian (UK) not long ago and also blogged about here at Aqoul. The pigment adjusting phenomenon appears partly inspired by such figures as the scintillating Lebanese chanteuse/statesperson Haifa Wehbe (ok, I made up parts of that description, just to irritate) and the Xena: Warrior Princess dark-hair/alabaster-skin aesthetic she can manifest, and which she shares with better example Nancy Ajram, the pendular-beaked former AUB Biophysical Engineering Department-Chair turned-singer (ok, made up some stuff there too). Anyway, jeez louise, the issues we humans can hinge our self-estimation on and make a mystique out of! But I do admit to getting seriously worked up if any blind fool even suggests that TIna Louise's Ginger was hotter than Dawn Wells' Mary Ann.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:57 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

December 15, 2009

Can't Haq It: Saudi-Israeli Collaboration To Stop Invader Bots

CAPTCHA, those squiggly letters on website and various user-i.d. portals you have to figure out and type in order to access something cybernetic and which ensures you are not a "bot" made out of silicon yourself, has been hacked. To the rescue now is a team so diverse, some have to kill each other if called into belligerent military service. But using 3-D animation and soon presenting in the land of anime, they may yet save us from the diminishing security of having to puzzle out a green angel-hair pasta version of "quetzlcoatl" and then type it in when we forget a password on gmail.

[R]esearchers at Tel Aviv University - part of an international team - have developed a "synthesis technique" to overcome the "bots" by generating images of animated 3-D objects that are detectable by humans but difficult for an automatic algorithm to recognize. The team . . . included colleagues at King Abdullah University in Saudi Arabia, The University of Delhi in India and researchers in Taiwan.... Their findings are being presented this week ... in Yokohama, Japan

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 13, 2009

East & West Side Story: Is Beirut Really Back?

Hype, snipe, or just type, o informed ones, about this Levanity fare. What say you to the Beirut toot in Guardian , UK?

It's beautiful, Beirut, beautiful and ugly and pock-marked and damaged and glamorous and unstable and exciting and just a bit mentally unhinged. It's the Elizabeth Taylor of the Mediterranean. Or it would be if you replaced the words "alcohol" with "Israel" and "a string of unsuitable marriages" with "15 years of civil war". . . . Beirut is back.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:40 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

October 26, 2009

Merely noting generally depressing IsPal items

Really this requires not much comment, very evidently no solution is possible unless the US whacks sense into both sides, not just one:
West Bank land belongs to Jews, says Israeli army judge | World news | The Guardian

Continue reading "Merely noting generally depressing IsPal items"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 25, 2009

No Justice, No Chick-Peas: Lebanon Closes Hummus Gap

Lebanese culinary artistes have outdone their southern neighbor in making the largest ever hummus. No word on the size of the bread needed to dip, but it would certainly have to be one humongous kiloton of pocket bread, which, as we all know, is pita, an Israeli invention.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:06 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 20, 2009

Lewistful Thinking Reconsidered: A Conversion Narrative

However valuable Bernard Lewis may have been as a historian, his influence on recent academia/military/political thinking vis a vis MENA, has always been horribly worse than useless, but nevertheless quite significant. This account of a former academic disciple's ditching Lewis when encountering reality is worth reading if only to hear that when he encountered reality on the ground "with Bernard Lewis and Samuel Huntington as my guides, I ha[d] no way to make sense of such an encounter."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

May 01, 2009

Happy May Day! New Month Post

Happy Real Labor Day, everyone!

Well, I suppose Site News is the most appropriate category for this little announcement...Tom and I are getting hitched, most probably at the beginning of September. I blame Aqoul - it's all about increasing contact and improving communication between people of various faith backgrounds, right?

So what have you all been up to?

Posted by evaluna at 12:01 AM | Comments (21) | TrackBack

March 01, 2009

Referenda

A few years ago now, Sari Nusseibeh and Ami Ayalon pulled together The People's Voice agreement and started gathering signatures for it. The agreement was basically the common-sense back-of-the-envelope deal that everyone involved in Israel & Palestine could draw up as the eventual shape of a stable deal. The petition gathered about half a million signatures, then sank without a trace.

But Nusseibeh has shown up again, and is apparently suggesting that the Obama administration base its Middle East policy around his plan.

Continue reading "Referenda"

Posted by tomscud at 06:55 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 19, 2009

Double Fault!

Dubai has spent the past decade or so doing everything it can think of in order to raise its profile. In the past week, however, two separate international events have been completely overshadowed by controversies. I wouldn't be surprised if the city's leaders spent a few days pining for the good old days of security through obscurity.

Continue reading "Double Fault!"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 11:00 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

January 09, 2009

Gaza: A Modest Proposal

At risk of delving into the Israel/Palestine issue, where people too often yell, scream throw things, and put words into my mouth, I'd like to see what the denizens of Aqoul think of this idea for a cease-fire in Gaza, and where to go afterward, which is part of a larger plan to eliminate conflict by addressing socioeconomic inequalities, and which would also address other conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Continue reading "Gaza: A Modest Proposal"

Posted by evaluna at 07:32 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

December 30, 2008

Gaza round, all ye clowns: Open thread

Try to keep the hyperpartisanship down in this more heat than light subject. Observations, etc. on the latest, have at it. But when in doubt, note sentence 1 here again.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:50 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

November 09, 2008

Now Hear the Nerds of the Lord: Monks Battle in J'lem

Not since the pocket-protectors flew maniacally in my high-school Chess Team intramural conflict between Star Trek and Star Wars clubs have I seen such a significant Battle of the Nerds (I was Trek). In Jerusalem's Holy Sepulchre, alleged tomb of Christ, Greek Orthodox and Armenian monks have been busted after exchanging hard blows (no relation to child sex scandals, btw).

The monk, who gave his name as Serafim, said he sustained the wound when an Armenian punched him from behind and broke his glasses.

No word on his Rubik's cube, but the monastic mayhem is all part of the long-runnning turf wars of Christian sects over a site that even the big JC walked out of after only three days (theologians debate still what happened to the 30-day deposit). This conflict is dwarfed by the larger mostly Muslim Arab versus mostly Jewish Israeli contentions over the whole city, but could conceivably outsize it in being even stupider. On the other hand, such intra-Xtian things did give us the Crimean War which produced Tennyson's great Charge of the LIght Brigade.

Continue reading "Now Hear the Nerds of the Lord: Monks Battle in J'lem"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

October 29, 2008

Seeders of Lebanon? Local Banking System Stability Noted

This NY Times article (may need to register) reports that Lebanon has remarkably stable and well-capitalized banks. In the midst of global turmoil in finance, they have eschewed speculative investments in favor of storing high levels of deposits. This stability has begun to attract hedge funds from outside. But to the untutored observer here, the article leaves open a simpler question -- how do the Lebanese banks make money (i.e. where do they lend for profit)? It appears that the banks are looking to branch out to several neighboring places (e.g.Bank Audi in other Arab lands), but there is little in the article to indicate they do much more than serve as safe places for deposit and as transfer agents for expatriate and diaspora inbound remittances (not that there's anything wrong with that, it's safe and presumably safely profitable via use fees, if any etc.). Otherwise the banks service some of the national debt of $45 billion. Are they simply giant vaults or seeders of a better future? Or might it be both?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:10 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

September 26, 2008

Cost of the Arab Economic Boycott on Israel

I used to think the Arab Economic Boycott was useless, as in ineffective and mostly unimplementable (laws that can’t be implemented shouldn’t exist, period). Now, I came across this research article, “The Effect of the Arab Boycott on Israel: The Automobile Market”:

Recent progress towards a comprehensive peace in the Middle East has led to a relaxation of the enforcement of the Arab economic boycott of Israel. This in turn has led to the entry of all the major Japanese and Korean automobile manufacturers into the Israeli market. In this paper, we examine the effect of the Arab economic boycott on this market. Using recent advances in estimating discrete-choice models of product differentiation, we estimate that had the boycott continued, the welfare loss per purchaser would have been approximately $1940 in 1995. This benefit can be interpreted as a peace dividend. Since approximately 113,000 new automobiles were sold in 1995, the welfare gain to consumers was more than $219 million that year.

Which makes me view it in a different light. If that was just for the automobile market, then it was definitely not stupid. Doesn’t change my opinion, which is well known in Aqoul, that Arabs should just turn their back on Israel until they can actually do something about it, meaning even in the light of this information, it shouldn’t be their top priority – but it does change the judgment on the quality of the boycott.

Posted by Shaheen at 03:12 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

August 24, 2008

MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?

Moving back MENA-ward, I add a rant inspired by long-time discussions here and elsewhere regarding investment in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. My amateur self keeps reading about Gulf or other money chasing things like real estate or hub port facilities, or digging out more of that Texas tea. Now, I hope I don't use too technical economic terms here, but here goes the rant: shouldn't the bulk of this fund dough, including money from superrich nations, be going towards activities where, you know, MENA regular folks will, like, MAKE NEW STUFF and then SELL THAT NEWLY-MADE STUFF TO OTHER PEOPLE for, um, HARD MONEY. That may sound a bit hi-falutin grad-school airy-fairy idealistic, development economics-y, but it needs to be said.

Continue reading "MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

August 21, 2008

Georgia on his mind: Pres Assad looks to new Russian arms deal

Why, I am getting a bit of nostalgia: Syria looks for Russian arms deal.

Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president, arrived on a two-day visit to Russia on Wednesday seeking new weapons and greater military co-operation and hoping to capitalise on the rising tensions between Moscow and the west. ... Syria is eager to revive a deal to import Russian Iskander ballistic missiles, which have better targeting systems than its existing arsenal of Scud missiles. Talks over the missiles were abandoned two years ago. Mr Assad said Russia’s conflict with Georgia, in which Moscow claims Georgia used Israeli-supplied equipment and military training, had underlined the need for Russia and Syria to bolster their military co-operation.

I had missed the Russian claims re Israeli equip to Georgia, never mind training. Well, that does add a bit of MENA colour and spice, eh? (See also Waning Maximalism, Siren Syria)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:12 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 19, 2008

Waning Maximalism: Siren Syria

It is always difficult to evaluate the reality of Gulf investments - they are the vapour ware of the investment world, often announced, much less often delivered. However, this Gulf Times arty on Gulfie investment in Syria is nevertheless interesting taken in hand with the recent trips by US bankers, hat in hand, to the Gulf.

While not explicitly connected, there has been major damage to American reputation - and Western banks reputations I would add - in this last year and one can not but think Lebanese Presidents visiting Syria is a bit of realism that but four years ago would have been off the table.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 16, 2008

Georgia-MENA open thread

(Apologies for genuinely accidental labored allusion.) Anyway, Russia has been doing a bit of marching through Georgia, reviving the Cold War-era 1980s for a bit (assuming the decade had ever left). Readers, writers, commenters, members, computer-owners and -operators are invited to share their wisdom on the latest Caucasian occasion, but most particularly in ways it may relate to the Middle East North Africa regions. Iran yawns; Israel lays low; Turks get dissed; Georgia removes its legions from Mesopotamia. And Vladimir Putin has been confirmed as Tsar of all the Russias, every blasted one of them, even those little Russias that fall under the couch cushions.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:10 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

August 01, 2008

His Hair Was Perfect: Werewolves of Gaza

(Apologies to the late Mr Zevon.) Turkey's so deeply meaningful war over hatwear nearly overthrew the government, and apparently its recent being sent to its room without supper is causing the AKP to temporarily write off the struggle, um, whole cloth. But those profound Turkish wars of meaning over hatwear give way to Gaza, where the struggle over the true hair of steadfastness has reached crisis proportions. It appears that Hamas is now shaving the moustaches off Fatah activists, in retaliation for the jackbooted debearding of Hamas loyalists by Fatah. An ominous development for a society already beset by settlers wielding sidecurls in violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention on Treatment of Follicles. Is history so soon forgotten, or are they just returning to their roots? Is it not time to get more bangs for the buck, and yes, rogaine one's freedom? And didn't Munich teach that even a small moustache needs to be stopped early? Turkey has stopped hair-covering, but hair itself remains appeased. Can anyone not see the civilization at stake in all this? What coiffure-textile combination do you feel best reflects optimal social values? Or is this person the secret key to global harmony?

Continue reading "His Hair Was Perfect: Werewolves of Gaza"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:47 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 12, 2008

The Arab Moderate

The Financial Times' Roula Khalaf wrote an interesting item on former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher's upcoming book, "The Arab Centre."

Khalaf's note is interesting in itself, and almost makes me want to buy Muasher's book, although I rather suspect in the end I'll learn rather little since I was hanging around in the area during Muasher's time.... The main item raised is what does "moderate" really mean when Westerners use the term vis-a-vis the Arab world. I think Khalaf and Muasher suffer from typical over-focus on one item the I-P conflict, but the point of the commentary, that moderate as a label really revolves around a core, that is accepting Israel.

I would add that speaking English (or French) well and wearing a western suit also gets one considered a moderate, or that is persons having the image of Westernisation are 'moderate.'

Continue reading "The Arab Moderate"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:20 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 11, 2008

The USS Liberty: It's back and . . . topically relevant!

The USS Liberty, the American intelligence ship attacked by Israeli naval and air forces in June 1967, is back in the news somewhat, and relevant to the news of the day. This assumes that this story has a true basis. Apparently the subject was raised in a meeting between US and Israeli officials. (For more Aqoul discussion on USS Liberty, go here, wherein I confess my conversion to the more-likely-a-screwup presumption.) Anyway: "According to. . . Haaretz, . . . the Liberty attack was raised in talks regarding Iran, and U.S. operations in the Middle East. . . [It] was agreed . . . that the United States and Israel would want to avoid any sort of 'mistaken confrontation' such as that which occurred when Israeli forces attacked the USS Liberty."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:29 AM | Comments (35) | TrackBack

June 23, 2008

Syria, how we might learn to love profit (or issues in getting away from Leftist rentier exploitation)

The Financial Times has a fine article on Syria Syria see[ing the] benefits of liberalisation that is worthy of some reflexion.

A couple of quick obs up front, given that Syria is moving from an utterly basket case socialist economy (with all the usual emerging markets double talk about 'social justice' that really means protecting the ruling elite and labour elite Soviet style to the detriment of the overall economy and post-revolution or new job entrants), their challenges are major.

Giving the article a quick read, it struck me that this pseudo-liberalisation (or maybe "shopping and not entreprenurial" liberalisation) is probably the very worst form insofar as it will definitely not deliver proper growth, will boost the corrupt rentier elites (I have nothing against entrepreneurial wealth, and related forms, but rent extractors I detest - whether in the most pernicious form as governmentally enabled or via private cartels [that US libertarians tend to forget as a serious issue]).

Continue reading "Syria, how we might learn to love profit (or issues in getting away from Leftist rentier exploitation)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:52 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

June 11, 2008

Al-Sharq, babe, has such teeth, dear: Lebanese Big Shots Interviewed

(Apologies to Bobby Darrin and the Three-Penny Opera.) On what seems like the ultimate Summer Vacation for MENA nerds, a student provides extremely useful and interesting account of meetings with the pezzonovantes of the Lebanon. Via Col. Pat Lang, via commenter duaneg. Below, some choice excerpts....

Continue reading " Al-Sharq, babe, has such teeth, dear: Lebanese Big Shots Interviewed"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:30 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

May 26, 2008

On Israel & the American Empire

The Financial Times' Gideon Rachman has a useful editorial on the issue of US-Israeli FP issues. I am fundamentally tired of the subject, given the sensation there is some kind of devilish and pointless merrigoround, but this editorial reminded me that once in a not so distant past US-Israeli relations were governed by a certain rationalism. Pro-Israeli, as an ally, but rational and .... well, to be frank, defensible in the balance even in the Arab & Muslim worlds.
Link Fixed bloody whingers

The editorial reminds one that once upon a time the US had influence - in the I-P conflict, and in MENA. My own experience - in the private sector working for US connected firms leads me to agree with this:

Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank, says: “I can’t remember a time in the last half century where the US has had so little influence in the region.”

it is astounding how the tail is wagging the dog, or how little honesty and how much fear drives American policy in the region, and how much harm the Americans are doing to their long term interests (and I would argue, to sane Israeli interests...)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 PM | Comments (36) | TrackBack

May 09, 2008

Get your Kicks / On Beirut / Sects' Dissects

An open thread for discussion of Lebanon at the crossroads . . . again. And who'd have guessed Nasrallah would provide the fireworks for Israel's 60th anniversary? Followup full posts from our expert team are welcome and encouraged, with removing the horrid tasteless lyrics allusion-pun above from its lead position as added incentive.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:26 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

April 23, 2008

Another Good Conspiracy Theory Down the Drain

Al Qaeda says an Israeli conspiracy didn't do 9/11. And, it adds, Iran started the Israel conspiracy rumor. Is that itself a conspiracy rumor?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:43 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

Open Thread on Carter, Hamas, and Stuff

Belaboring, distatefully, the last general subject area, we turn to Jimmy Carter's statement that Hamas was ready to accept Israel at some point in some way. Hamas itself seems to disagree. To me, it appears to be a conflict of spin. Hamas will not, for ideological reasons, recognize Israel but they appear to be willing to accept a Palestinian state on 1967 borders, and say they would accept a popular referendum to honor a truce to go no further. With spin, that can be seen as de facto acceptance of the Palestinian Authority's current or future recognition of Israel. Sounds alot like China and Taiwan, actually. (Which situation can erupt at any time, but probably won't as long as mutual prosperity keeps rearing its ugly head.) Anyway, unlike the previous thread where I had a strong opinion and not much time or interest to engage, as I was asserting something obvious, here I am inactive because I have no strong opinion or time, so it is just an open thread for those interested.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:15 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

April 02, 2008

A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It

It being a little quiet around here what with all of us busy and/or lazy, I thought I'd spice it up by going against the usual, and quite healthy, distaste of most Aqoul principals towards wading into the Israel-Palestine morass. Especially as there are anniversaries and such coming up. Anyway, today's lesson comes from a column of Michael Gerson (not a fan, myself, usually) in the Washington Post. It tells of a speech at the Holocaust Museum by an old gentleman, a Mr. Traum, who was once a very young gentleman in Nazified Austria. He recalls various events especially around Kristallnacht in 1938-39. Below the break is a revealing nugget.

Continue reading "A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:37 AM | Comments (74) | TrackBack

January 18, 2008

Lebanon as the new Iraq

Nir Rosen has an exhaustive article on the story of Fatah al Islam in Lebanon and the summer's battle in the Nahr al Barid camp. There's too much to summarize (frankly, I need to read it again to try and get all the moving pieces straight), but his basic conclusion as to who sponsored the group was that both the Syrian government and the Future movement tried to coopt it, but failed to do so, and that the group's real commitment was to an al Qaeda-style global jihad.

The whole article is worth reading (if slightly mind-numbing in its complexity), but I'm just going to quote the concluding paragraphs:

Continue reading "Lebanon as the new Iraq"

Posted by tomscud at 04:18 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

Continue reading "NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 27, 2007

Annapolis Semi-Open Thread

In Annapolis, Maryland, USA, another round of peace efforts commences in the Great Intra-Semite Parking Space Quarrel ("You have 22 other parking spaces!"/ "Well, you're not really a car!"/"God stamped this ticket!"). It -- the conference not the quarrel -- will last for "as long as [Rice] feels there is a good, solid and productive discussion." Have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:43 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

November 11, 2007

Iraq as Lebanon: the Syrian model

Abu Aardvark has recently hosted a discussion by Colin Kahl and Brian Katulis on Iraq policy, (see here, here, here and the Aardvark's response here). It seems as good a place as any to take off on the question of where the "Anbar Awakening" and current US policy in Iraq seems to be heading.

Continue reading "Iraq as Lebanon: the Syrian model"

Posted by tomscud at 05:12 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

November 08, 2007

Jasim & The Argot Naughts: Why That Name in Iraq?

I come up with naught when I search memories of Eastern Mediterranean Arabs and their dialects, patois, and argots, for Jasim and variants as personal names. Yet every single flippin' story from Iraq has someone named Jasim in it. What's the deal with that? (And yes, my worst allusion-pun ever.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:28 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

November 03, 2007

Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington

I have to borrow from the discussion on the previous thread the quotation below. It's from a book review of at-best mixed value but by someone with the knowledge to make the statement. Tell me its assertion is false. Please, God, please......

Continue reading "Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

October 20, 2007

Souq Heil: What's Up With This Cocked-Arm Gesture?

The sunbats are out doing their Islamofascism Awareness week hate-fest, with the usual bigotries and idiocies, but I do have to agree though on the reaction engendered by this photo (I've seen others like it) of what appears to be the Hizbollah 3rd Bandana battalion. Is it what it appears to be -- a militaristic fascist salute, or has it some other significance? UPDATE: With the aid of commenter M, we learn it is indeed a political-militaristic "Roman salute" but apparently a Fascist-era Lebanese custom that transcends sectarian lines (is that a good or bad thing?). Enjoy (thanks M) this collage of Lebanon's main Christian party, and chief Lebanese allies of Israel, doing the Teutonic taxi hail. (Cache it in, before they get hip and delete.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:06 PM | Comments (31) | TrackBack

October 04, 2007

USS Liberty sort-of followup: Chicago Tribune

The Chicago Tribune does a service by giving the USS Liberty-attack veterans a full say. As I discussed many weeks back, the case deserves full fresh investigation. At the time, I shared my own developing conviction that it was more likely than not a case of culpable mistaken identity rather than a willful attack on an American ship (at least when it was ordered). The article erodes that conviction somewhat -- I'll downgrade mistaken identity from "buy" to "hold" -- but essentially the attack-with-foreknowledge argument often goes back to the same flaw: the belief that merely by defeating the "innocent mistake" claims by Israel and Fans, the only other conclusion is Israeli foreknowledge of the ship's American-ness before the attack began.

Continue reading "USS Liberty sort-of followup: Chicago Tribune"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:41 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

September 21, 2007

King Abdallah of Jordan, member of a Bible study group?

I was reading Mother Jones' article about Hillary Clinton's religiosity, surprising in itself when it described how Hillary had been part of the conservative and elitist Bible study group called the "Fellowship" - also known, in an odd mafia-like way, as the "Family". It's not only mere vote-catching for this Democratic candidate formerly known as liberal - asked how her Christian faith had gotten through the Lewinsky-affair, she replied that she had "people whom I knew who were literally praying for me in prayer chains, who were prayer warriors for me."

My astonishment was not to end there.

Continue reading "King Abdallah of Jordan, member of a Bible study group?"

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 05:42 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

September 13, 2007

Iran War On the Way: More Evidence

It appears that I may have been right to call attention to those saying a war on Iran is being rolled out by the Administration. An informed and expert source in DC affirmed it to me as well a few days back. And it looks like the usual suspect sources are now marketing it. (Love the part where we can mysteriously tell that the Germans really want us to attack even as they back away from sanctions against Iran. Saying "no" when they really mean "yes", those Teutonic teases!) Michael Ledeen appears to be the one whose job is to incite the converted; he who says that al-Qaeda and Iran are interchangeable terms and at one point called Dubai, an "Iranian colony". Man, all them dang camel jockeys are the same and interchangeable, and that thinking is how one manufactures a war. Anyway, Aqoulites and Aqoulite wannabes with Iran-specific knowledge are needed to weigh in, now and in the future.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:19 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

September 09, 2007

Quick Roundup of News on Roundups

{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)

Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)

Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.

And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 07, 2007

Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day

Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."

Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"

In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".

Continue reading "Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 25, 2007

Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place

I must say something nice about the Washington Times, which normally has MENA-related fare along the lines of FoxNews and this type of swill. I saw this story a short time back of a travel-writer's visit to Syria in the dead-wood version, but not online. Now I see it is online. Amazingly, the writer actually seems to have taken note of the place and reported it and experienced what normal travelers there would notice, although one might find it too saccharine for its non-comments on the ubiquitous Leader & Family photos, or the pervasive poverty. Still, entitled sincerely and without guile The Kindness of Syrians, it is well done and refreshingly rooted in relevant reality; excerpts for you link-avoiders below the break. (Elsewhere on deeper questions of wealth and poverty, AbuFares has this to say; more on that at another time. Now back to the W. Times.)

Continue reading "Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 13, 2007

A Cheney is only as strong as the weakest link

This American Enterprise Institute resident's expert comments, from circa 1994, are making the rounds, as well they should. Perhaps no one in the current Administration had encountered these thoughts, during the buildup to the Iraq invasion.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 12, 2007

Blacklisting little tiny radical groups

The first thing that came to mind in reading that that the Americans have "blacklisted" a little radical group in a Leb refugee camp was "oh my, I guess they won't be able to launder any assets through buying discounted mortgage assets.... Well, actually that's not true, my first thought was "why do they bother?"

I have no doubt it took more expenditure on the part of the Americans to go through the process, than this little marginal group has ever seen. Freezes their assets.... for a group of flea-like importance relative to US interests. In the Americans fixation in a Comintern / Soviet type threat, they descend into comical acts; wasteful as well.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 10, 2007

Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples

The recent elections in Lebanon (or Leb Land as I like to style it) produced an interesting result although not one of such great surprise, except to perhaps the Tottens and Friedmans of the world, that is, the blow-back of incompetence and utterly delusional policy based on wishful thinking and unresolved contradiction on the part of the Great Power.

The NY Times article is a solid enough and illustrative of some issues long discussed here at Aqoul, notably the severe contradiction between American (but not only American, Western in general) "promotion" of democracy, and inattention to tied-in policies; never mind inability to take an appropriately rational "who's the best long-term bet for our fundamental interests" analytical view of potential allies in region - including the Islamists.

[It has been pointed out in comments that my comments on the article are undermined by the dodginess of the article premise - in particular the reality of the American connexion impact. As I am not watching Leb Land politics with great caution or interest, I'll simply issue this mea culpa for being suckered into ranting on too little basis. This being noted there is much other commentary remaining]

Continue reading "Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:37 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 05, 2007

Honor Off Her: Fadlallah Fatwas Honor-Killing Out of {Shia} Islam

The practice of hyperpatriarchal societies of murdering suspect sexually-impure females, known as honor killing, and prevalent in the MENA region, in the ME far more than the NA parts, has been ruled unIslamic by Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, Lebanon's leading Shiite Muslim figure. (This has appears to me a bit underreported, though to their semi-credit the story is noted by the creepshow bigots at Jihadwatch who then go on to argue that a fatwa against honor killings isn't really a fatwa against honor killings, because well, you know, it, um, well , it, anyway it makes sense to ignorant hate-spewers who claim to "get it" about Muslims, unlike us poor "dhimmis".) The fatwa, as some coverage notes but others in comments report differently, is not replicated much in Sunni circles to date. An analogy may be to southern American Christians who accomodated race-segregation even when some religious were not in favor, out of fear of public prejudice in favor of the practice. In any event, the fatwa's a cool thing, and it did not require the efforts of Irshad Manji. As far as I can tell, no comment by Ayaan Hirsi Ali on this, possibly because it doesn't compute?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:48 PM | Comments (37) | TrackBack

July 31, 2007

Weapons for Everyone

As you might already have read, the United States has announced a massive arms package covering Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf countries. Guardian columnist Brian Whitaker, a Middle East expert, believes the deal is a bad idea, as it will inflame Sunni-Shia tensions throughout the region. While I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Whitaker, I must respectfully disagree with him and say I consider the deal a good idea overall.

Continue reading "Weapons for Everyone"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:36 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

June 21, 2007

Lebanon: a security archipelago

Jim Quilty has an excellent overview of the current situation in Lebanon at Middle East Report Online, weaving commentary on the security situation in the Palestinian camps into an analysis of Lebanon's overall security and state system.

In particular, he critiques the emphasis some parties put on the Palestinian camps' exceptional character as "security islands" where the state has been historically unable to exert authority:

Finally, speaking of the camps as “security islands” reinforces the fiction that the Lebanese state has forever yearned to assert full sovereignty over the entire country. In practice, the decentralized administration of the Palestinian camps has been just one variation on a theme of rule whereby the Lebanese state effectively outsourced its responsibilities and prerogatives. By this system, confessional politicians dispense services like health care and garbage removal to their constituents as patronage. In the period of Syrian hegemony over Lebanon, local security was delegated to different political groups on a case-by-case basis depending on their relationship with Damascus. In areas where Damascus' allies held sway -- from Druze lord Walid Jumblatt (before he shifted to the “Syria out!” side in 2005) to Hizballah (Jumblatt's present bête noire) -- groups minded their own turf, with or without the cooperation of the state security apparatus. Where banned “anti-Syrian” groups held sway, Syrian secret police were particularly overbearing. Far from exceptional, then, “security islands” like Nahr al-Barid were, and are, simply part of the archipelago that is post-civil war Lebanon.

Continue reading "Lebanon: a security archipelago"

Posted by tomscud at 03:35 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

June 18, 2007

Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath

Monty Python's Life of Brian meets real life as this woman gets to speak in public as if she knows what she is talking about. Saracen-slayer Ayaan Hirsi Ali was speaking at the National Press Club and I accidentally heard it on the radio. At first I didn't know who it was until a stream of simple-minded inanities about Islam versus the West narrowed it down fast. No transcript available, only memory, but I had to belly-laugh and nearly spew as she explained Islam's rigidly came from the fact that it takes its Scriptures as literal and divinely authored unlike, um, Christianity. In the Christian Scriptures, she explained, the books are not fixed as being written by God, but are said to be written "by people . . . like Paul . . . and Deuteronomy." (That's exactly what I heard, folks.) What an expert guide for us on religion and progress! O, why did I have to be a Monty Python fan?

Continue reading "Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:30 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

June 16, 2007

Gaza Stripped: Two Demi-Quasi-States, One People

It appears the folks who rather justly complain of having no country, now appear to have two. Well, three, if you count the old Likudnik view of Jordan. Or in the negative numbers, if reality functions as a point of reference.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:59 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

June 05, 2007

USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly.

Among the Mideast Six-Day War's 40th anniversary issues will be the June 8, 1967 attack by Israeli military forces on the USS Liberty, an American naval intelligence ship. In international waters near Egypt's Sinai peninsula, the vessel was torpedoed by Israeli Navy vessels, following repeated strafings/napalmings by Israeli Air Force planes. A special remembrance was held at the Navy Memorial (7th and Penn) in DC on June 8. Despite my own newer conclusion that the incident was indeed a result of Israeli errors, rather than an assault with foreknowledge of the ship's American nationality, I do think the incident should receive long overdue U.S. public investigation and hearings .

Continue reading "USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 AM | Comments (27) | TrackBack

May 23, 2007

Keep your Sunni side up: Lebanon conspiracy theory #637

Seymour Hersh propounds this conspiracy theory of sorts regarding the rise of Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon. I don't buy it offhand, but there's plausibility in a Saudi role in promoting Sunni anti-Shiite counterweights, with US winks and nods. Any takers?

What I was writing about was sort of a private agreement that was made between the White House, we're talking about Richard -- Dick -- Cheney and Elliott Abrams, one of the key aides in the White House, with Bandar. And the idea was to get support, covert support from the Saudis, to support various hard-line jihadists, Sunni groups, particularly in Lebanon, who would be seen in case of an actual confrontation with Hezbollah -- the Shia group in the southern Lebanon -- would be seen as an asset, as simple as that....There is a supreme overwhelming fear of Hezbollah and we do not want Hezbollah to play an active role in the government in Lebanon and that's been our policy, basically....

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (42) | TrackBack

May 09, 2007

Why Israel is doing Arabs a favor by ignoring the Arab Peace Initiative

Because Arabs can score some PR points out of it, but would face the tough issue of dealing with it if they had to sit and really negotiate it. Or worse, find some formula about refugees that one of our duces would think is a face saving one and come to have to actually implement it. Of course, if we were smarter, it wouldn’t be a tough point at all. But see, in negotiations, we’re idiots.

I know this entry comes a bit late, the Arab Peace Initiative has been put back on the table several weeks ago already, but I felt inspired by a recent discussion of it with a concerned friend. At the beginning of the Oslo process, when Israelis were sending delegations of the finest international law and negotiations experts, Palestinians were sending teams of little bullies, thinking that the kafya military green wearing Sopranos would be as good with their brains as they are with their muscles.

Continue reading "Why Israel is doing Arabs a favor by ignoring the Arab Peace Initiative"

Posted by Shaheen at 12:50 AM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

May 07, 2007

Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union

Sarkozy’s proposal of a Mediterranean Union have been discussed a lot by French media, but with little substance. The fact is, there aren’t many details in the proposal anyway. From his party’s website:

Je favoriserai le développement des pays pauvres, en cessant d’aider les gouvernements corrompus, en mettant en place une Union méditerranéenne avec les pays du Sud

I will favor the development of poor countries, by stopping aid to corrupt governments, by creating a Mediterranean Union with southern countries

Since most countries of the South happen to be Arab and corrupt regimes, I wonder how his pro-colonial, pro-Israeli, “anti-corrupt” attitude is going to help him cooperate in building any kind of union with them.

Continue reading "Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union"

Posted by Shaheen at 02:54 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

April 28, 2007

France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy

As per The Lounsbury's suggestion, and following Ibn Kafka's extensive coverage of French elections, here are my two cents about them, Beurs, France and the MENA region and related economic bits.

Sunday's [May 6th] second round will most probably bring Sarkozy to French presidency. I have to say I'm very mixed up about this election. This round's vote is a matter of either gambling on Sarkozy, and risking what happened with Arab Americans, who happen to have voted George Bush in 2000, or choosing an economically destructive but marginally more risk averse community-wise choice with Segolene.

Continue reading "France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy"

Posted by Shaheen at 04:21 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 11, 2007

What the Mecca Agreement could mean for the future of Palestine

The Mecca Agreement, signed by the leaders of Hamas and Fatah on 9 February, elicited much hope: that it will end the mini civil war in Gaza, which had begun to spread to the West Bank; that it will lift the international sanctions on the PA government; that it would force Israel to return to the negotiation table.

So far, the first target seems to have reached as the fighting has stopped. Of course, only in a few weeks will we know if the cessation of violence is permanent and can be sustained.

On the second and third targets the verdict is still out. The agreement has been received very cautiously, with the general comment being "Let's first see if the new government will conform to all demands by the International Quartet." The main, thorny issue is that of recognition of Israel and all agreements signed by the PLO.

One thing that hasn't been talked about is just what the new "government of national unity" means for the Palestinians ruled by it, and what the distribution of ministries will mean for the role that both Hamas and Fatah can (& cannot) play in Palestine.

Continue reading "What the Mecca Agreement could mean for the future of Palestine"

Posted by MSK at 04:24 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

January 06, 2007

What's with Ismail Haniyeh's new headdress?

When I saw the photos of the meeting between Palestinian prime minister Ismail Haniyeh and his president Mahmud Abbas, I was surprised to see Haniyeh wearing a red kuffiyah. And it wasn't a one-time occurrence, either. (Although he still seems to get used to it.) Now, I know he just went on hajj and hence has shaved his head ... but still, I wonder if his change of appearance has any larger significance.

Continue reading "What's with Ismail Haniyeh's new headdress?"

Posted by MSK at 02:25 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

December 27, 2006

You Can't Be Syria's? Ambassador Blogging

The envoy to USA from Syria apparenlty maintains a personal blog. I'll leave it to our distinguished readership to assess the value or lack thereof, and the deeper sociopolitical meaning. In the meantime, I kind of enjoyed his linking to this survey by Sami Moubayed of Syrian women's rights activities (which, I would note, apparently did indeed exist before the Levantine Boadicea of You Tube, Wafa Sultan, so bravely invented them from -- where was it? -- California, circa 2005.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:46 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

December 19, 2006

Another Woman Put In Her Place in Saudi Arabia?

Oh, wait, sorry. It's not Saudi Arabia. Culture shock for an American female visitor:

A woman...reported a vicious attack by an ad-hoc "modesty patrol" on a...bus last month...[She says] she was slapped, kicked, punched and pushed by a group of men who demanded that she sit in the back of the bus with the other women...She rode the bus daily to...pray at sunrise...Women usually sit in the back, while men sit in the front, as a matter of custom.

Where's Rosa Parks when you need her?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:11 PM | Comments (21) | TrackBack

December 04, 2006

Fun with Labels: Protest, Opposition, Siege, and/or Coup d'Etat in Lebanon

Even if one man's protest is apparently another man's attempted coup, there's still something just a little bit off about the rhetoric surrounding recent events in Lebanon. Commentators are at pains to distance what is happening now from what happened when the March 14th movement (or Cedar Revolution, if you prefer) peacefully camped out in downtown Beirut. It would be impossible to track down every instance of the sort of rhetoric I'm talking about, but Abu Kais, currently guest-blogging for Michael Totten, is a pretty representative example, referring to the situation as an "occupation of downtown Beirut" and a "coup attempt". And, our own Lounsbury has already posted on similar framings over on ...Or Does it Explode? that amount to: "How dare people we don't like use non-reprehensible tactics? Bad people should only use bad tactics!"

Continue reading "Fun with Labels: Protest, Opposition, Siege, and/or Coup d'Etat in Lebanon"

Posted by homais at 03:11 AM | Comments (85) | TrackBack

November 21, 2006

Lebanese Logic Returns to Lebanon

Afraid this is a rather nasty turn for my second favourite destination (or maybe third, but in any case of the favourites) in MENA land, Lebanese Christian [Maronite] cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel whacked in assassination jobby.

Smart money would likely bet on Syria being stupid again, but on the other hand the Gemayel have no lack of enemies either.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:40 AM | Comments (31) | TrackBack

October 16, 2006

Backers of Dovish American Jewish Initiative Deny Opposing AIPAC

When JTA ran a story last week about an initiative backed by George Soros (or not yet backed if you believe Rosner's reports below) and other powerful dovish American Jewish leaders, it noted that one of the purposes of the initiative would be to present a progressive counter to AIPAC. All of this seems perfectly reasonable to any reasonable American Jew. But the 900lb gorilla Goliath has taken notice of little David standing beneath him and he's roared his annoyance. As a result, it's humorous to see the erstwhile progressives scurrying like ants to backtrack:

Jewish organizational officials who have participated in the meetings said JTA's characterization of their aim in a story earlier this week, as an alternative to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, was wrong...

Those currently leading the effort say they're happy to work with AIPAC.

"My involvement is that Mort Halperin's an old friend," said Mel Levine, a former U.S. Democratic congressman who is now a high-powered West Coast lawyer. "Mort asked me to go to an initial exploratory meeting about a pro-Israel advocacy organization that would focus on a two-state solution, that would focus on Israel and was not in competition with anyone else."

That did not usurp AIPAC'S role of advocating for a strong U.S.-Israel alliance, Levine said.

Continue reading "Backers of Dovish American Jewish Initiative Deny Opposing AIPAC"

Posted by Richard Silverstein at 08:09 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

September 25, 2006

Leb Land & Recon, Back to Networks

Returning to a hint I made a month ago, I find on the newswires confirmation of the scheming re buying some street cred in Lebanon after the disastrous backing of 'transformation via Israeli shells' did such a lovely job of fucking American reputation into a cocked hat.

The USD 250 million of course is better than zero, but I am having a hard time seeing effectiveness given zero on the ground networks.

Hezbullah won, and even the backstopping effort isn't very good.

[Updated with links to actual entries supra, just to prove The Lounsbury is ahead of the curve]

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:17 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 27, 2006

Losing and Winning: Constituency Service

Roula Khalaf, who I may add is simply one of the must-read journos on Middle East has a fine profile in FT on Hezbullah's reconstruction efforts

I know from work I am engaged in right now that this will send France, US and others into a tizzy.

But there is no beating them. Quick roll out of Western institutional aid is simply not going to be competitive, because the networks are not there.

Where the damage is, the institutions are Hezbullah.

Continue reading "Losing and Winning: Constituency Service"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:59 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 16, 2006

Rubenesque Conflict Seeks Single, Professional, Peacekeeping Force

Judging by these John Bolton (US Representative to UN) comments and the other background activities, it appears that no nation or force or combination of them is stepping up to volunteer to be the blessed armed peacemakers between Israel and Lebanon. Where are the Gurkhas when you need 'em? Or the French foreign legion, especially as the French were so active in putting this cease-fire plan together? Amazing, isn't it, that Israel and Lebanon are such great traditional tourist destinations, but for some reason the border between them just doesn't get the eager traffic you'd expect, even with the free (for spectators) fireworks displays.

Continue reading "Rubenesque Conflict Seeks Single, Professional, Peacekeeping Force"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:11 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

August 13, 2006

15 ways of looking at a ceasefire

With the Israeli and Lebanese governments officially approving the ceasefire (as of 8 AM local time tomorrow), and Hizbullah indicating that it will respect ("with reservations") its outlines, the question arises, "who won?" Let's ask the blogosphere.

Continue reading "15 ways of looking at a ceasefire"

Posted by tomscud at 10:41 AM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

August 12, 2006

Lebanon: UN Resolution 1701

CNN (and many other news services) has the text of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which appears to be at least tentatively agreed upon by the governments of Israel and Lebanon (and presumably wouldn't have been agreed upon by the Leb government unless it thought Hizbullah could be brought on board), although Israel has apparently decided that it can't decide on the Sabbath whether to stop attacking.

Continue reading "Lebanon: UN Resolution 1701"

Posted by tomscud at 04:22 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 11, 2006

Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)

The rising chorus of commentators horrified at the American-Israeli desire to play a self-indulgent Thelma & Louise drive-off-the-cliff policy in MENA continues to grow.

Ranging from a late echo to my own "Guns of August" allusions, in the Washington Post yesterday (although the lunatic Thelma & Louise approach is reaffirmed by Gingrich and Krauthammer today), to Roula Khalaf's analysis in the Financial Times last week, to intelligent Israeli analysts realising that this 1982 business is not going to get any better, whatever the utterly magical thinking going on in Bush and Olmert governmental quarters, to The New York Times (in a generally decent if somewhat superficial review) noting the disastrous impact this useless war is having on American policy interests.

Continue reading "Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)"

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August 10, 2006

More Death in the Levant: A Personal Note

David Lelchook was cut down by a Hizbullah rocket landing in or around Kibbutz Sa'ar, Israel on August 2. He was bicycling, unsuccessfully, to a bomb shelter. The rest of his family had relocated to the south for safety. He was hit by the explosive force of the random projectile. I didn't know him or his views, but I have known his sister for quite some time. Reading the latest news the other day, David's rare surname jumped out. A phone call confirmed the relation.

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Of, by and for the Lebanese

Michael Young has an article in the upcoming New York Times Sunday magazine discussing Lebanon's politics, the rise of Hizbullah, and the nature of the conflicting visions for the country. It's a good piece, and very different from much of Young's output over the past couple years. There's a sense of humility to it, and a willingness to look at the warts on "his" side of the equation as much as on the other side.

The main thing that sets it apart from so much of the commentary on the war is a willingness to look at Hizbullah as a Lebanese phenomenon, run by Lebanese with a vision of what Lebanon ought to be, and responding to Lebanese circumstances. This is something I was getting at back at the war's start, and which raf picked up on in his analysis. And it's the kind of thinking that is the only way that Lebanon is going to be able to get itself out of the mess it will be in, even after the bombs stop falling.

Continue reading "Of, by and for the Lebanese"

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August 06, 2006

Sarkozy, Lebanon & French Arabs

[Editor's Note: Our occasional contributor Shaheen sent us this interesting note on Euro-Arab developments re Lebanon and French policy]

French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy's recent remarks about Lebanon (for those who don't understand French, he's basically siding with Israel) infuriated quite a few French Arabs (once more). Yet, the ascending interior minister and probable next president is the story of a big failure from French Arabs' part, first and foremost.

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August 05, 2006

Another death fatwa for the war?

I don't know if MEMRI has translated this one yet.

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August 03, 2006

Creative Destruction & Own Goals - "The New Middle East is Already Dead"

Text: "Uncle Sam wants to 'educate' our political parties"
TV: "War in Lebanon - Massacre"
US: "Lesson 1, turn off the telly."

The entry title comes from a radio report I just heard on RFI. The above is from a Moroccan business journal online, l'Economiste, normally a fairly liberal publication. Fairly amusing in the end, and illustrative of the spill over effects of the public US diplomatic position.

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August 02, 2006

Letter from Hizbullah to Israel

Recently received intelligence via my Hamas contact, Mel Gibson*, in which it was learned that Hizbullah has sent a "thank you" letter to Israel. Text follows.

* Expelled for intoxication.

Continue reading "Letter from Hizbullah to Israel"

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August 01, 2006

Baalbek (Updated: 2 Aug)

The madness continues.

Sats (Arab and Euro) are reporting Israel is attempting an air-mobile operation in Baalbek (Mid-Lebanon, Beqaa).

The sole value in this entire madness is a near perfect illustration of tactical considerations, poor leadership and domestic politics getting the better of cold-blooded rational calculation of state interest.

[Update: watching Hezbullah spokesman on al Jazeerah, I found it interesting that in ranting on about Arab occupied lands he finessed the issue of Israel - i.e. cited Golan, Chebaa, Gaza, but not Israel qua Israel. Artful that was. Added further, caught on BBC World Service interview w Leb rep, who ostentatiously refused to take a bait to whinge on about Syria but was highly US critical]

Continue reading "Baalbek (Updated: 2 Aug)"

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July 31, 2006

The Economic Side of the Lebanon War

A bit back on my sub-blog I shared some musings on the economic impact of the conflict, which perhaps should be highlighted as the dogs of war are clearly out of the control of their master, and as dogs are wont to do, rather running amok against their own interests.

Some thoughts then on the impact of war regionally, from an economic perspective, and related thoughts on where the various markets may head. Very much seat of the pants by the way, and not profound.

Continue reading "The Economic Side of the Lebanon War"

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Gross Incompetence & Contempt: Blindness on Lebanon

Although the macabre dance that is the war in Lebanon continues a depressingly predictable shuffle, the utter dilettentism that is the current American administration's diplomatic efforts - although efforts almost grants their clumsy, amateurish statements and reactive myopia too much dignity - continue to be breath taking. This AM, after the fine little Qana Bis blowing up of little girls (unsportingly exceeding certain understandings), I find myself greeted by the news that the amazingly incompetent Rice - I do officially take back everything positive I said with respect to her - suddenly finding that the time is right for a ceasefire. I am not sure that circumstances more detrimental to the image of the Americans in the region could have been fabricated by an enemy (except perhaps a 'transformation' statement). Of course, to be fair, at least she had that modicum of sense to stop the "permanent conditions" as a "pre-condition" idiocy.

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Lebanon: Bloodletting at Qana

I badly underestimated the impact of the bombing in Qana - just one more building full of people. Yes, ironic that it should happen in the same village as the 1996 massacre, but it seemed to be just one more cruel irony added to this war, not the earth-shaking event it has turned into. Hizbullah has taken definitive advantage on the domestic political scene, and a return to the status quo ante looks less and less likely.

Asad Abu Khalil calls it a "coup d'etat":

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July 30, 2006

Lebanon and the outlines of a ceasefire

The possible shape of a conflict-ending ceasefire seems to be swimming into focus, as Lebanese PM Fuad Seniora has gotten Hizbollah to sign on to a plan that includes an Israeli withdrawal from the Shebaa farms and ceding to Lebanon of some water rights; the takeover of security responsibility for southern Lebanon by an international force of some sort; an exchange of prisoners between Israel and Lebanon (possibly through Hizbollah turning over the Israeli prisoners to the Lebanese government so that Hizbollah and Israel don't have to suffer the mutual ignominy of negotiating with each other); and some sort of eventual disarmament of Hizbollah's armed wing.

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July 26, 2006

Slowly, Slowly into the Morass We Return (Updated)

The agonising replay (is it farce this time or tragedy?) of 82 continues. The New York Times article Israel Finding a Difficult Foe in Hezbollah amply illustrates the idiocy that is this Guns of August replay.

It is hard to decide what is most depressing. The predictability of the slow, inching back into the morass only exited in 2000, the delusional commentary from America which seems to have utterly abandoned critical thought, or the certainty of nasty blow-back as time goes on in this utterly (except for Hizbullah) Pyrrhic battle.

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July 24, 2006

Skillful Asymmetry & Spin (Israel-Lebanon Land War)

In the twilight realm that is the competing spin on the Israeli-Leb crisis, it is hard even to know where to begin, when our own yellow satire barely outdoes actual American commentary justifying civilian massacres.

However, I would suggest that the Superpower's bizarro-world approach to the crisis, infected as it is with utterly magical thinking as it reportedly is shopping for a 'coalition of the willing' [my term my dears] to "disarm" Hizbullah, and uniquely confirm its own allies as Quislings... [link restored]

The Financial Times, with fine understatement reports this evening that Rice ideas for peace disappoint in Beirut, although that may be about as much news as Israeli and Arab leaders don't see eye to eye.

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July 22, 2006

International Convention Needed on Blowing Off Little Girls' Faces

With little girls’ faces in the Middle East being blown off , and dangers of it continuing for a while longer, our clandestine correspondent has learned of a rare ultra-secret “face to face” meeting that has been going on to limit it. With the aid of an international mediator, an Israeli representative and a Hizbullah representative have gotten together to discuss the parameters of a Fifth Geneva Convention on Standards for Ripping or Blowing Little Girls’ Faces Off. Some of the text has leaked to ‘Aqoul, below. (This is not to be mixed up with little girls being encouraged to sign death messages on artillery shells that might blow off little girls' faces.)

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July 21, 2006

Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)

Although less impressive than the scenes you can catch of the Arab Sats, this Al Jazeerah arty (Arabic) Continued Criticisms of Israeli Hostilities Against Lebanon and Palestine / استمرار التنديد بالعدوان الإسرائيلي على لبنان وفلسطين conveys in pictures (and of course text) the Islamic world reaction after the Friday prayers. The demos shown on the telly in Amman, Cairo, and Damascus were particularly large relative to the security presence. The article also notes the khutub (sermons) in particular in Baghdad; oddly perhaps the Israelis will provide Iraqis an inter-ethnic rally point.

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July 20, 2006

Spin, US Diplos and Delusions (Leb Land Encore)

While my preference might be to blither on about some Islamic finance developments, it strikes me no one will pay attention presently given all the fun everyone is having with the exciting spectacle of Israelis and Lebs poking each other's eyes out, so let's get back to that.

I was amused to stop by The Belgravia Dispatch and read that one of the Right Bolshy loons at the National Review Online has it from "someone very close to U.S. policy-making on the Mideast" that the " Lebanese government is happy to see Israel pound Hezbollah, but can't say it out loud." Djerejian then links to the very FT interview with Siniora that I quoted previously.

Continue reading "Spin, US Diplos and Delusions (Leb Land Encore)"

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July 19, 2006

Diminishing Returns, UK comment on Israel-Lebanon madness & Leb PM interview

My colleagues more closely involved in this Guns of August reminiscent fiasco that is the current Leb-Israel violence - Tom and Raf Bey - are better placed to comment on immediate things, but I wished before turning attention to Arab media to highlight some further Times commentary worthy of notice:

First, Britain fears assault on Hezbollah will backfire rather captures my own sense of the irrationality of the extent (nota bene: extent, not fact) of the Israeli response. Air raids and the like, nor even likely an invasion and occupation (as the period 90-00 showed), will not break Hizbullah, above all not in a dynamic where "degrading infrastructure" on a country-wide level is simply going to generate (except in the surreal US media) less and less sympathetic imagery.

Continue reading "Diminishing Returns, UK comment on Israel-Lebanon madness & Leb PM interview"

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America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary

I sometimes wonder what it is about American media that leads to quite such utterly delusional commentary on the Middle East. Following up on my initial gut reaction, some more thoughts on the utterly surreal American whanking. (see also Lounsbury)

Drawing on The Times commentary blog, Times News Desk: World comment: how does it end?:

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July 18, 2006

Lebanon: Refugees

"Refugees" seems to be the word for the day. While European countries and America are arranging sea-borne evacuations of citizens, many have already taken the land route out to Syria. A lot have gotten out; some didn't make it. UNHCR is reporting that the majority of those crossing the border into Syria are of Syrian nationality.

In the meantime, more than 60,000 Lebanese are trying their luck within the country, and other Lebanese are helping them out. Anthony Shadid has a piece in today's Post that expands on dispatches yesterday by Brian Whitaker and Chris Allbritton (no doubt among others).

Continue reading "Lebanon: Refugees"

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July 17, 2006

The Shaykh, the "Other Guys", and Lebanon in the Middle

When, last Friday, I saw my fellow 'Aqoulite Tom's post on "What was Hizbollah thinking?" my immediate reaction was "Dude, what are you TALKING about???" and I was about to start writing a reply when ... well, life kinda got in the way.

So, with a little delay, my answer to Tom and take on the 2006 Summer War:

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Lebanon: Sectarian impact, sectarian reactions

Anthony Shadid continues his fine work from Lebanon, surveying four neighborhoods in the city and people's different reactions, especially to Hizbullah. A Shi'ite doctor in Dahiya expresses his admiration for the culture of resistance; a Sunni architect sees two cultures in Lebanon: a culture of resistance and a culture of accommodation; a bar-owner in Gemayzeh says he's had it, and isn't willing to give up his own happiness for someone else's principled struggle; and a couple 20-year-old kids in Achrefieh, the heart of Maronite Beirut, openly cheer for the Israelis to "crack their heads".

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July 15, 2006

Lebanon Roundups & Open thread

I'll start a new thread some time, but for now this one will do. There will be some new material after the flip, since Eerie seems to have been a bit irritated at the spammy nature of my last update. So pure linkage before the flip, and some comments afterward, along with all the old links.

Sunday PM:

A conversation with (someone's) dad
Letter from Beirut at 3 quarks daily
Round-the-world protest schedule from lebanonexpats.org.

Billmon has some big-picture analysis (part 1 and part 2), as does Chris Allbritton

Continue reading "Lebanon Roundups & Open thread"

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July 14, 2006

What was Hizbollah thinking?

The question of the day (or at least the question that I can answer from across a comfortable amount of mediterranean from where things are actually happening) is "What was Hizbollah THINKING?" There are a number of speculations of how the kidnapping of the soldiers is part of a scheme by Syria or Iran to upset the region, regain influence in Lebanon and give Israel a black eye. I'm not going to totally count these explanations out, but I'd like to consider how a group like Hizbollah could have come to this decision without outside pressure. Bear in mind that I don't claim any knowledge of the party's inner debates.

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June 19, 2006

Hariri's Clever Scheme

Or, where the Lebanon debt crisis came from in the first place.

So I see that Executive magazine finally has their web edition up (disclaimer: they give me money, but not to blog), which means I can point to this Nick Photidiates article on the Lebanese national debt and how the banking sector is tied up in it. According to him, it all came down to decisions Rafik Hariri made when he originally took power.

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May 01, 2006

Further on migrant labor: Lebanon

Went to a lecture and discussion by Tina Naccache, a woman who works with migrant laborers, and especially female maids, in Lebanon, sponsored by nahwa al-muwataniya. I'm just going to drop some sketchy notes here. The lecture and discussion were in Arabic so I might well have misunderstood some things.

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Lebanon: Basil Fuleihan and the Limits of Technical Reform

Basil Fuleihan (allah yarhamu) died a little over a year ago of wounds sustained in the Hariri assassination - he was in the same car as Hariri at the time. I interviewed a number of his former coworkers for an EXECUTIVE article that'll be up on the web in, oh, three weeks or so. Those of you in Lebanon who just can't wait can pony up at the newsstand like everyone else.

Even accounting for the inevitable rosy glow that accompanies memories of a dead man, much less a "martyr", Fuleihan's accomplishments were pretty amazing. He had initiated and overseen technical reforms across a wide range of the government's fiscal apparatus, including customs, the tax code, the land registry, a new insurance law, a new intellectual property law, a consumer-protection law (don't snicker back there), and also somehow convinced the world to kick Lebanon some loans at reduced rates at the Paris I and II conferences. He came across as a guy who knew how to fight, and win, bureaucratic battles, who was able to build institutions and motivate people, and who was genuinely committed to getting bureaucracy out of people's way.

In short, he was the model of an IMF economist.

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April 01, 2006

Civil War Reenactors Come to Lebanon

UPDATE: The following story is an April Fools' Day hoax. In case you found it several months later by Googling "Lebanese Civil War" or "hot sexy arab Haifa Nancy", please note that it is NOT TRUE.

BEIRUT "No, you don't kill him over there!" Jack Karam runs down the narrow alleyway, a folded-up paper clutched in his left hand. Two young men in camo fatigues look up at him, and away from the two women and the old man they had been menacing with their submachineguns. Jack unfolds his poster-sized paper and starts pointing. The young men, the old man, and the two women gather about. There's a short discussion, Karam speaking in Southern-inflected English, the rest mostly in Arabic. Finally, they trudge a couple hundred yards through the dusty streets of Shatila camp and resume their positions. The two young men mime pulling the trigger, first on the old man, then on the two women, who collapse in a heap on the ground.

"That's more like it," says Karam.

Continue reading "Civil War Reenactors Come to Lebanon"

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February 27, 2006

Lebanon: A Fairy-Story

Let me tell you a story:

Once upon a time, there was a tiny kingdom where the people lived in freedom, prosperity and happiness. If they had any fault, it was that they were too busy enjoying their freedom to notice that the tyrant who ruled the neighboring kingdom hated them and was scheming to bring them down.

He schemed and built his armies, and one day he invaded, and his armies ground the nation down under the wheels of their fell war machines. The great nations of the world looked on, and made speeches about "sovereignty" and "freedom", and did nothing. And the tyrant's rule fell over the kingdom for a generation.

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February 15, 2006

Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism

I am not the biggest fan of the US Administration and its Middle East policy, that is certain. Indeed, I rather consider them a bunch of congenital and serial incompetent bunglers whose policies may be described with Talleyrand's "Worse than a crime, a blunder."

One might expect, then, I might be in agreement with the opinions voiced by the Democratic party opposition in this article from Reuters:

US bungles Middle East policy, lawmakers tell Rice
By Sue Pleming

Well, I am not. Sadly the criticism, rather than being well-founded, is largely based on the same kind of simple-minded magical thinking and wishful-thinking-as-analysis that has led the Bush Administration astray so very badly so many times. Criticism about Hamas rather than Fatah winning the elections in Palestine, for example. As if the US has a magic wand to wave to make the 'good guys' of the moment win (or forgetting that using such wands that do exist to achieve 'victory' for one's favoured side can be rather Pyrrhic, ending up with damaged goods).

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

February 14, 2006

Cartoons & Protest: Context, Hariri's Commemoration as a Benchmark

A brief comment if I may, on the cartoon controversy and benchmarking - in the context of the over-heated characterisations of the Islamic world and the protests against the Danish cartoons.

Among the items that have most annoyed me has been the lazy characterisations that had protests of mere hundreds or a handful of thousands as reflecting 'mass Muslim anger.' Mere hundreds is not mass anger.

I'd like to take Lebanon and the Rafiq Hariri Memorial demo as a benchmark for real mass movement: as one can gather from The Washington Post and better from the image with al Hayat's coverage, even allowing for large Xian and Druze participation, more than a few hundred Lebanese turned out.

I would hazard the opinion that one has a benchmark for what really is bringing people out, and what is not.

It strikes me that again and again, the largest demos one sees are not the ones supporting the radicals in the region. However, the radicals are good at turning out their troops more often, smashing things to get attention and generally bleating rather loudly claiming to speak on behalf of all. The squeeky wheel, as it were.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:44 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

February 06, 2006

Cartoon Outrage: Salafist Entrepreneurial Behaviour, Manufacturing Incidents & the Problem of Moderation [Updated]

There seems hardly any reason to provide links to this ever-escalating cycle of utter contemptible idiocy, so let me make this more or less purely opinion and my own personal analysis. I would be remiss, however, if I did not pimp our very own summary page on the Danish – Mohammed Cartoon Controversy.

I also would like to point to a fine round up of online commentary as well as highlight our dear Raf Bey’s contribution: “Why do the Syrians burn embassies but the Iranians don't?” In addition, to return a citational favour well-deserved, I point to Clive Davis’ blog commentary, and in particularly this most recent summary of rational commentary on the riots. One has to agree with his observation that the commentary he cites is “more helpful than one of Christopher Hitchens' thunderbolts on "the case for mocking religion".” Juvenile exercise of expression, but then we should be used to Hitchens being a cretin with regards to the MENA region.

Onward, then.

The Lounsbury Discussion on the Issue

[Update: reading Wikipedia I found an online link - no longer working - to the/an Arabic dossier on the cartoons written by the Denmark group of Imams. Having given it a speed read, it appeared to me that while the dossier was written post-facto to their official meetings, its Arabic text did clearly indicate the incendiary 'extra cartoons' were not published, but were ones received by certain unidentified protest leaders, post their public protests in Denmark. That makes the provence of the cartoons less doubtful to me. The dossier was not inherently unreasonable in tone, although certainly disputable, and clearly reflected an agenda, one which I continue to think reflects the Salafist extremist fringe]

[Update II: A very interesting note thanks to Clive's comment, Danish paper rejected Jesus cartoons; they were apparently offensive and unfunny. Ahem. Well. In other notes re the same article, someone desperately needs to give Muslim activists a lesson in marketing: the European Committee for Prophet Honouring just sounds... silly.]

Continue reading "Cartoon Outrage: Salafist Entrepreneurial Behaviour, Manufacturing Incidents & the Problem of Moderation [Updated]"

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February 04, 2006

Why do the Syrians burn embassies but the Iranians don't?

I find it interesting how the protests by Muslims against the "Danish cartoons" differ according to location. These two BBC News articles - 1st and 2nd - provide a good overview.

Of course, the gunmen in Gaza and the West Bank and the burning embassies in Damascus make the headlines and evening news, since they're the most outrageous images available to journalists. What bothers me in the coverage of the protests, however, is that nobody seems to analyze these protests not only within the global but also their local context, that they are all subsumed under the general "Muslims protest the defamation of the prophet Muhammad" heading.

Doesn't anybody find it at least noteworthy that the Danish & Norwegian embassies were torched in - out of all places - Damascus? That there were only small demonstrations in Cairo? That there were almost no demonstrations at all in Iran? That the number of Muslim demonstrators in Europe was - given the overall numbers of Muslim inhabitants - ridiculously low?

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January 29, 2006

Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences

The election of Hamas has set off quite a lot of overdone hand wringing with respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and with respect to 'democracy promotion.'

I am going to ignore the I-P conflict as an endless toothache, although frankly in the medium term this is probably a boon as Hamas seems likely to be a more effective player than the corrupt and broken PLO/Fatah.

Rather, a few words on democracy promotion in the Middle East and North Africa.

The first words are, I am no fan of it, and frankly largely do not believe in it on the terms that it is pimped to the general public, etc. However, the handwringing post-Hamas victory requires some comment.

Continue reading "Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences"

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January 26, 2006

Palestine: Hamas

The results appear to give Hamas a strong electoral position, which is not surprising if one had one's ears to the ground - despite the Bush Administration apparently sad and Johnny come lately intervention on the side of the sick old man, Fatah.

Here is the rub made clear, really democratic elections are going to produce these kinds of results. If one is going to pimp simple minded democracy, than one has to ive with them. I have met enough Hamas people to suspect that they can in fact be dealt with. It's better optics in the end to try and fail, the exclude which merely feeds into Hamas cycle of popularity.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:53 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

January 04, 2006

On Leb Land and Leb Delusions and Gullible Fools (updated with small disclaimer)

Via our dear pratike, and his commentary, and because my meds induce me to blither on, I share with you some further evidence that Michael Totten is a gullible fool and dupe of the type that the Lebs have long exploited to their profit.

The commentary on Totten's latest facile idiocy is adequate as such, but some further thoughts on the particularly Leb Beiruti conceit that they are a "model" for anything. Of course, since Totten knows so very little, of course he can be duped into thinking such (if thinking is a verb that can be applied to his cretinous drivel).

[AHEM: Since my humourous banging away at Leb Land and Lebs seems to have offended some, let me add this note in advance.

Yours Truly, The Lounsbury is well aware that Lebs are not (all) the uber-corrupt evil genuis cartoons that may be taken from the following commentary (although I wish they were, it would be funnier).

However, my love of Lebs goes so deep that I can't refrain from pimping their stereotype(s) to the max when commenting on the fucked up little Leb Land homeland.

This is done out of love, as opposed to my senseless attacks on Egyptians, who I actually do despise and loathe to a level that some have called irrational. I would say that if you ever had to spend several years in Egypt socialising with the cretinous lumps, you'd hate them too - if you had any taste.

Not that there are not some nice Egyptians out there who are not cretinous lumps of faux jolliness, but where would we be without some abusive and cartoonish stereotyping now and again?]

Continue reading "On Leb Land and Leb Delusions and Gullible Fools (updated with small disclaimer)"

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October 21, 2005

Redactions on Hariri Report Revealed!

As mentioned previously, the edition of the Hariri report distributed by the Washington Post was a Word document in which it was possible to "track changes" and back up the previous version's redactions. The vast majority of the changes fixed spelling and grammar errors, standardized peoples' titles and the spelling of their names, and reworded awkward sentences. But there were four deletions of moment to the document. Deleted text has been struck - added text has been bolded. In order:

16. The Commission could not operate in a media vacuum, particularly in Lebanon. Certain Lebanese media had the unfortunate and constant tendency to spread rumors, nurture speculation, offer information as facts without prior checking and at times use materials obtained under dubious circumstances, from sources that had been briefed by the Commission, thereby creating distress and anxiety among the public at large and hindering the Commission’s work when the focus should have been mostly on security issues. It has been the Commission's steadfast policy not to be drawn directly into a dialogue in the Lebanese media, avoiding any escalation and staying above any challenging or provocative statements. Both press conferences were aimed at countering such speculation and clarifying the status of the investigation. Inevitably, their effect was short-lived.

17. To enhance transparency and broader cooperation, working with the judicial authorities entailed keeping the highest political authorities abreast of developments in the investigation, to the extent that such action did not call into question the independent nature of the Commission nor have a direct impact on the course of the investigation per se. However, a number of Lebanese political figures added to the climate of insecurity and suspicion, by leaking information to the press, or by revealing sensitive data without the prior consent of the Commission.

UPDATE: Per praktike, Michael Young weighs in.

Continue reading "Redactions on Hariri Report Revealed!"

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UN Report on Hariri's Assassination is out

The report of the international investigative commission on Hariri's death is now available on the Internet here (at the Washington Post site) - as Asad Abu Khalil notes in another unparagraphed but interesting novel-length ramble, the version as of the time when I downloaded it still has all the "track changes" information attached, at least the last revision's worth. If the Post ever gets around to fixing this mistake (if it's a mistake) I'll upload the red-ink version I have on my laptop. Among the more amusing not-quite-redacted bits:

Certain Lebanese media had the unfortunate and constant tendency to spread rumors, nurture speculation, offer information as facts without prior checking and at times use materials obtained under dubious circumstances, from sources that had been briefed by the Commission, thereby creating distress and anxiety among the public at large and hindering the Commission’s work when the focus should have been mostly on security issues.

The streets are almost quiet in Beirut, as everyone waits for the other shoe to drop. Yesterday, there was apparently a rush on all the gas stations, as the rumor spread that Syria was going to cut off the pipeline through which Lebanon gets all its oil. Michael Totten and The Lebanese Political Journal both have good atmospheric takes.

Oh, the report? Read it for yourself, or check out the AP story or the Washington Post's version. I may post more later, when I've had a chance to read a bit more.

Posted by tomscud at 09:48 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

October 12, 2005

Former Head of Syrian Intelligence in Lebanon Dead

Ghazi Kanaan, former head of Syrian intel in Lebanon, (apparently) killed himself, two hours after making a call to a Lebanese radio station defending himself against allegations that he'd been involved in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri. This is especially interesting since there's been a lot of speculation that he will prominently figure in the report of the international commission investigating Hariri's death. Tony Badran (who has a definite righty Maronite slant on things, but has been reliable & readable on Lebanese politics) has a wrap up.

UPDATE: See also this novel-length paragraph from Asad AbuKhalil, who discusses (among other things) the way in which Abu Nidal committed suicide in Iraq: "Now is this like Abu Nidal's 'suicide' in Iraq under Saddam's regime, when he shot himself with an AK-47 15 times? At the time, Abu Nidal kept shooting himself all over his body until the Iraqi mukhabarat people in the room had to tell him: 'Abu Nidal. Stop shooting yourself. You already are dead. Officially dead.' Only then, did Abu Nidal stop shooting."

UPDATE 2: Praktike, at Liberals Against Terrorism:

BTW, do we think it's a coincidence that this Financial Times piece came out a few days ago?

As it steps up pressure on Damascus, the US is actively seeking an alternative who would take over from President Bashar al-Assad, according to sources close to the Bush administration.

Not that I'm shedding a tear for the guy--he was clearly a bastard responsible for many deaths in Lebanon. But some jaw-wagging American officials may have signed his death warrant this week. Who knows?

On consideration, I don't think that Syrian intel is so lame as to have to rely on the Financial Times for that kind of information.

Posted by tomscud at 12:36 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

October 11, 2005

Ramadan TV & Terror

Of interest to the media, terror and culture people here, a fine little story on a Ramadan soap that I have been following (or rather, am forced to follow unless I hole myself up in my office) on MBC: Syria launches terror-themed soap for Ramadan.

I caught this referenced online somewhere, but had actually been watching the series without knowing where it was going, although the last episode (10 September on MBC) gave the game away with the somewhat dime Khaliji character getting brainwashed by a ultra-Salafi takfiri type activist. That and the chica who is the implied wheel-chair bound narrator pulling or slipping back her hidjab to show nasty scarring.

Continue reading "Ramadan TV & Terror"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:11 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

September 06, 2005

Lebanese Media: Al Safir, September 6

Lahoud Forces Extra Session in Ba'abda to Settle "Crisis of the Prisoners"
Mehlis Briefs Annan and Security Council Today on His Investigation Before Going to Syria
Presidential Trip to New York on Monday, and Siniora's Enthusiasm for Cooperation Diminishes

God, I'm tempted to just knock off the Lebanese politics part of the paper, at least until the 15th. Anyway, latest in the ongoing government brouhaha: The council of Ministers, the highest branch of government, is having a very hard time meeting, on account of the President, who is to convene them, is practically on trial. They finally managed to have one working session (at which I guess a bunch of trivial administrative stuff such as RUNNING THE COUNTRY was accomplished), but were required to hold a second extraordinary one to answer the complaints lodged by the relatives of the four security chiefs currently under arrest for conspiracy to murder Rafiq Hariri that they were being held under inhumane conditions.

My heart bleeds.

Also, in an inset, they announce that half the cell phones in Lebanon are going to have their prefix number changed. 03 to 71. Just so y'all know.

Onward: the Lebanese political news is a bit short today, so we get THREE MORE articles on the front page:

Continue reading "Lebanese Media: Al Safir, September 6"

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September 01, 2005

Lebanese Media: As-Safir, September 1

From Lebanon's as-Safir newspaper:

Above the fold:

Will Mehlis Announce Today Why He Suspects the Security Cabal?

(Lahoud counterattacks: [Mehlis is trying to] "rescue" his trip to New York; Berri expedites security appointments; Sa'ad Hariri supports an international tribunal; Lebanon and Syria subject of discussions among America, Britain and France)

A not-much-there-there article, pretty much all in the headlines. First paragraph is expended complaining about how a much-anticipated press conf given by the head of the investigating committee was preempted in favor of a short press release written in English. There's a bunch of pointless speculation, followed by the news that the four security officials remain under guard in the Monte Verde hotel (where the investigating team is based), while ex-minister Qandil was let go after being interrogated yesterday evening.

Continue reading "Lebanese Media: As-Safir, September 1"

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August 31, 2005

Lebanese Media: As-Safir, Intro and August 31

I was planning, upon completing my Arabic course and resuming my new career as a gentleman of leisure, on doing a daily translation of the front page of one of the big Lebanese newspapers, preferably one that doesn't have an English edition already on line. Sadly, having attempted that the other day, I now understand why all the big-name middle east bloggers tend to translate little bits and pieces of news reports: because doing full translations is bloody exhausting.

So I'll be trying to do a daily headlines-and-summary report of the front page of As-Safir, a leftist-Arabist newspaper ("The newspaper of Lebanon in the Arab World and of the Arab World in Lebanon") which has the virtue of (1) being cheaper than most of the other papers and (2) not already having an English edition on line, so that this little exercise might add a little value for someone, somewhere.

Continue reading "Lebanese Media: As-Safir, Intro and August 31"

Posted by tomscud at 11:15 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 30, 2005

Two notes from Lebanon

After a great deal of to-ing and fro-ing, the international commission investigating Rafiq Hariri's death has taken into custody the four senior security chiefs at the time of the assassination, including the serving head of the Presidential Guard. They're only in for questioning, rather than under any sort of arrest or indictment, but it's still a pretty big deal.

As a side note, when I was picking up my dinner, the restaurant's owner was complaining about how everyone else knew something big was going down except him: he had had only five delivery orders the day before, and practically no eat-in customers, apparently because everyone was keeping their heads down. "This is supposed to be an international commission ... what kind of secrecy is this?"

Also, tomorrow (August 31) is the twenty-seventh anniversary of Musa Sadr's abduction. Sadr[1], who founded the AMAL movement and was the first person to bring Shi'ite Islam into the political sphere in Lebanon, was kidnapped on a visit to Libya in 1978 and has not been heard from since. (Qaddafi is not a very popular man in Lebanon.) There are signs up all over Beirut, and ads in all the paper, commemorating the day. I don't know if this is a trick of selective memory or not, but I at least don't remember this much of a fuss being made in previous years - it sure looks like an attempt to compete with the Hariri cult. (Which has subsided somewhat, but there are still a lot of big official posters of Hariri, and a fair number of the unofficial private ones as well. And you still see the big black "the truth / al haqiqa" signs up in places.)

[1] (a cousin of the Iraq Sadrs)

Posted by tomscud at 10:18 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 24, 2005

Aqaba, some moderately ignored items

Oddly the Aqaba attack, no doubt to the sheer pitifulness of our fine rocketeers' aim (really no respect for the craft of rocketing these days), seems to have generated relatively little attention.

Yes, the usual bleating about terror this and that in the usual places, a rather typical and in my mind largely posturing claim on behelf of Zarqaouie via the internet.... but little attention to the idea of Aqaba as the first Iraq spillover event (although one might suggest the truck bomb "chemical threat" thing of last year which I very much enjoyed personally (emptied out my fav places in Amman, great seating to be had) was something of a spillover.

Pity, it should have been a point of heated speculation.

Continue reading "Aqaba, some moderately ignored items"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 19, 2005

Annoying grey ships at Aqaba piss me off: Shall Fire rockets at them. (US ships attacked) - updated

Well, this news in the AM bemused me:

Missile Fired at U.S. Navy Ship in Jordan

It reports two missiles (in fact, it appears mortars, not quite the same thing, Mr. Halaby, or perhaps Katyusha rockets..... well something explosive in any case) were fired at US warships at Aqaba harbor.

[update: 17h00 GMT below]

Suppose this will do wonders for tourism. Might clear out the harbor though, reduce the backlog.

Continue reading "Annoying grey ships at Aqaba piss me off: Shall Fire rockets at them. (US ships attacked) - updated"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 16, 2005

Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes

A somewhat quick note building off of a comment by the esteemed Nadezhda in regards to my rapid note on a new US Gov private equity fund _{(also with more rough perso comments at Lounsbury )} backed by the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a US parastatal investment insurance and financing house whose main line of business is political risk insurance on US direct investments in risky locales.

I have been intending - and still intend to - write some commentary on this specific issue of private equity (or in general equity finance) in the MENA region, but I thought some quick notes on this OPIC backed private equity fund for the MENA region are in order, and in response to some notes by Nadezhda - whose name I have learned to spell now.

Continue reading "Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 11, 2005

Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced

At the risk of descending into flackery or something approaching it, I thought a brief comment here might be fun.

OPIC BOARD APPROVES $75 MILLION FOR MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA FUND

Certainly this plays into my personal interests.

[Updated with correction below]
[Update with a question: Is there a debate to be had here regarding using such tools for acheiving a policy goal?]

Continue reading "Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 01, 2005

Sex and Citizenship: Morocco, Jordan, Foreigners Boinking and Children's citizenship

Our industrious friend Abu Aardvark(s) _{(known affectionately in our Maghrebine parlance now, in honour of the second Aardvark as Bou Aradvrak)} had some interesting comments on Morocco's newly announced move, via the Moroccan King's Throne speech this weekend, to change Moroccan law to grant citizenship to the children of foreigners and Moroccan women. This will end, when eventually enacted, decades of paterfamilias centered citizenship policy.

Bou Aradvrak indicated he hoped this would have a positive effect on the Jordanian dynamic where similar liberalisation has been stalled:
Progress for Arab Women & Children as his blog arty is entitled.

Continue reading "Sex and Citizenship: Morocco, Jordan, Foreigners Boinking and Children's citizenship"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:52 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 31, 2005

Alawi-Ismaili violence in Syria

No value added, just pointing to a Josh Landis narrative of a trip to Qadmous, where Alawi villagers attacked a number of Ismaili-owned stores recently. I am having no luck whatsoever finding any news summaries (or mention whatsoever) of the event outside Landis' site. Some excerpts under the cut, but go read the whole thing.

Continue reading "Alawi-Ismaili violence in Syria"

Posted by tomscud at 09:53 AM | Comments (2)

July 27, 2005

On IMF, Populism, Yemen & Jordan: Populism as Self Defeat, or why subsidy riots are not wins

A small note in response to a note by our friend, the Father of Aardvark(s) _{(hmmmm, I believe that I should create an Arabised plural, and for the sheer fun of it, a broken one, so from now on, Abu Aardvark to me is Abu Araadvaraak (abusing grammar and presuming Ardvark is a compound word), or in Maghrebine form Bou Aradvrak).} on the 'victory' of the Yemani street in reversing the revision of subsidised petrol prices.

Continue reading "On IMF, Populism, Yemen & Jordan: Populism as Self Defeat, or why subsidy riots are not wins"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:09 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 22, 2005

Beirut: Monot Street bomb

I'll make this short, because I'm sitting here at home typing this, when I could be going looking for fine (or, likelier, mediocre) Scottish product to finish the day off with.

Monot Street got bombed. 1 killed, 7 injured. But Monot Street.

Monot Street, for those not in the know, is the finest source of pure night-clubbing Lebanese Protest Chyx (as seen in a warblog near you about four months ago) in the world. There is no rival.

I was walking back down from watching BATMAN RETURNS (good flick, by the way) via Rue Monot, and saw a bigger than usual crowd, especially for before 10 PM on a Friday. Plus, instead of all trying to get into some night club, they were looking at something further down the street. There were also a bunch of military vehicles nosing their way down the way. As I got further, some harassed middle-aged guy in army fatigues was shouting at the various pimped-out lounge-lizards to "Please disperse. Stay behind the lines." (Or something like that. In Arabic.)

I took off on a side street, stopping to ask some guy walking the other way with a big honking camera: "Shu saar? Kaan infijar?" "Yes, bomb." At which point I found a coffee shop with a TV on.

Fortunately, the bomb was at 9:45 PM, at which time the Street is hardly even warmed up yet.

I'd like to use this space for a very special message for whoever is making all these bombs: Would you sad sons of bitches please get a life? What, are you afraid the sad speccy anoraks in London are going to get ahead of you in the cross-continent bomb-laying sweeps? It isn't funny, it isn't clever, it isn't even scary. It's just a pain in the ass. Go do salsa dancing lessons or something, I hear it's a great way to meet chyx.

Fuckers.

Posted by tomscud at 04:38 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 21, 2005

Suspect named in Hariri investigation

Well, sort of. In an interview with Le Figaro, Detlev Mehlis, head of the UN commission investigating Hariri's death, has named Mustafa Hamdan as "a suspect", but at the moment he's only suspected of trying to obstruct the investigation by clearing the crime scene prematurely. Hamdan is the commander of the presidential guard, and the only senior chief of the security services who was not fired since the Hariri assassination.

In the interview, Mehlis also says that he doesn't know if he's going to need a 3-month extension, but that the commission is doing its utmost to return its report by September 15th. He expects to interview Rustum Ghazaleh (chief of Syrian security in Lebanon at the time) soonish ("très bientôt").

Continue reading "Suspect named in Hariri investigation"

Posted by tomscud at 05:54 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 19, 2005

Oh NOES, it's teh SEE EYE AY!

Being back in Jordan after a two-year absence has proven to be quite interesting. The amount of newly opened American chain stores are quite large, as are the amount of 'alternative' locally-owned bars and pubs. I've frequented the latter group quite a bit this past week, and have noticed an eerie amount of American folks hanging out among the upper-class Jordanian youth.

For instance, I noticed a tall man with a shaved head and well-built body sitting down alone at a table. This man could have been taken straight out of the military had he not been reading a book, cross-legged, while quietly drinking a glass of wine. I walked up to him and asked him what he was reading, and invited him over to our table. He ignored the question but introduced himself and walked over with me anyway. When he sat down I repeated the question, and he said: "I'm a writer." Intrigued, I asked him what sort of stuff he wrote. He responded with a vague answer, something along the lines of: "I write different things, for papers and stuff, and other things too."

Another incident occurred at the Jordanian Film Convention I attended a few nights ago. This man, J., claimed to work with an NGO "dealing with Iraq". He didn't know what NGO he was working for, however, or at least, that was his reponse when I asked him. After talking to a friend I found out that this guy actually interviewed Iraqi prisoners, but again, not much was known about the actual organization he worked for.

Now this is not going to be an analysis so much as a personal observation, or perhaps a 'word from the street' sort of thing. Tonight, another friend mentioned the abundence of Americans "studying Arabic" here in Jordan. Funnily enough, however, it seems that even after spending months "studying", none of these people could speak more than a few words or sentences. Furthermore, young Arabs who live here find themselves casually questioned by these foreigners about what they think of the war, the government, or Islam.

Continue reading "Oh NOES, it's teh SEE EYE AY!"

Posted by ridemycamel at 05:24 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

July 12, 2005

Lebanon II - Building on Breaking

No substantive commentary, but I draw attention to this:

Lebanon Deputy Premier Wounded in Blast

The target, a pro-Syrian politician.

I opined months back that I did not like the US supporting a maximalist approach to opposition politics because of the chances of playing into returned inter (and intra) communal violence.

The overall analysis behind this is that while, yes, a majority of Lebanese do not want a return to civil war, as in Iraq, and as in Lebanon - it is not the majority that makes these things happen. One simply needs enough hard men on either side who can make a profit in some manner, via power or money, to push it, and enough weakness on public authority side to be unable to choke the trend off.

Lebanon probably can choke the trend off, but the state is just weak enough that this can't be dismissed.

I also note the potential for a currency crisis which could help precipitate serious tensions.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:28 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Explosion in Antelias

Radio and TV in Lebanon are reporting a large explosion at the Pointure roundabout in Antelias, a Christian suburb north of Beirut. TV pictures are showing people very badly injured, being loaded into ambulances, and blackened, twisted cars. Apparently, (outgoing) Defense Minister Elias Murr has been injured in the explosion. Murr, though Greek Orthodox, is traditionally associated with the pro-Syrian wing of Lebanese politics.

Nothing yet on aljazeera.net, naharnet, or bbcnews.com.

Update: BBC News story says 2 injured (as does the al jazeera ticker), one of them Murr.

Update again: 2 dead, 12 injured. Murr is injured. Al Jazeera story. Naharnet story.

Posted by tomscud at 03:42 AM

July 10, 2005

Long Lines at Lebanese-Syrian Border

After the extended political crisis that led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops and intelligence from Lebanon, followed by the election of the anti-Syrian former opposition coalition to a majority of the seats in the Lebanese parliament, Syria has started to demonstrate the kind of leverage it still possesses over its smaller neighbor.

For the past few weeks, traffic across the Syrian border has been dramatically slowed, particularly in the case of trucks, which according to This Middle East Online reprint of an AFP article are taking four to five days to cross the border. The article also records that the Syrian government claims the slowdown has been caused by tightened security measures to prevent Islamic militants from coming into Syria.

Lebanese business leaders are screaming for the governments to come to some sort of agreement, but negotiations attempted by both the government of the outgoing and incoming prime ministers have proven fruitless. All land exports from Lebanon to other Arab countries must pass across the Syrian border, and agricultural products in particular are spoiling in transport.

Continue reading "Long Lines at Lebanese-Syrian Border"

Posted by tomscud at 03:32 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 07, 2005

An extended comment on IMF, Jordan discussion

As this is rather long for comments, a small entry on the IMF, Jordan and Liberalism discussion based on our esteemed co-author, ridemycamel, who again hopefully will pardon my poor manners, sharp tongue and the like.

I also note that due to popular outcry, I am introducing block quoting. I dislike it, but have to maintain some pretension to customer service or our financier will dump me. (Although it was such a pain to add I can't promise consistancy here)

Continue reading "An extended comment on IMF, Jordan discussion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 04, 2005

IMF, Jordan and Hegemony: A Rebuttal of Sorts (Updated)

Let me engage for the first time a co-author, in particular ridemycamel in regards to his entry on the IMF.

I’ll say first of all it is intelligent, well-written, clear and concise. Incredibly wrong-headed and trapped in leftist twaddle, but well-written. I thank the author in advance for what I am sure will be an interesting reply and while I am going to whack him up side the head a number of times, it is with all due respect.

From the top then:
Financial Aid, the IMF, and Historical Structures: The Case of the Bread Riots in Jordan

Continue reading "IMF, Jordan and Hegemony: A Rebuttal of Sorts (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:56 AM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

July 03, 2005

Financial Aid, the IMF, and Historical Structures: The Case of the Bread Riots in Jordan

Some of the most fascinating aspects of financial aid-- in my opinion-- are the often implicit regulations that come along with it, and how it re-shapes and re-forms the societal structure of a developing country. This can be viewed particularly well in the majority of resource-poor MENA countries. By examining the history of financial aid in Jordan during the 1990s, for example, you can clearly see how the flow of financial aid was based as much on the political decisions of the Jordanian monarchy as it was on the country’s needs. What is even more intriguing is how this aid has changed the historical structure of Jordanian society and removed the bargaining power from the hands of the subaltern groups in the Kingdom and into the hands of the capitalist powerbrokers in Amman and Washington.

This change is best viewed through the two bread riots that erupted in Southern Jordan in 1989 and 1996. Both riots were almost identical in nature, yet the monarchy’s response to each crisis was unique. The changes in the response of the monarchy towards the bread riots are best explained by how different social forces are incorporated or excluded in the global neo-liberal historic bloc, and the way historical structures are shaped, satisfied or frustrated in the process of this hegemonic formation.

Continue reading "Financial Aid, the IMF, and Historical Structures: The Case of the Bread Riots in Jordan"

Posted by ridemycamel at 02:17 AM | Comments (11)