Gulf Archives

May 15, 2011

The GCC Monarchies Demarche (Jordan and... Morocco???)

Catching up on this piece of strange news, FT reported that the GCC had extended invite to Morocco and Jordan to join the GCC...

The Gulf Co-operation Council could be turning itself into the club of Arab monarchies as it considers bringing Jordan and Morocco into its fold, a move that would strengthen the political and economic capacity of the two countries’ leaders to fend off any popular challenge.

In a surprise announcement late on Tuesday, the GCC, which joins six oil-producing Gulf Arab states, said it was considering a request by Morocco and Jordan to join the bloc, even though the two poorer countries have little in common with existing members.

Following a GCC summit in Riyadh, Abdullatif al-Zayani, the secretary-general, said foreign ministers would be holding talks with the two non-Gulf countries to complete the procedures required for membership. It is not yet clear if membership will be granted or in what form.

The GCC was formed in 1981 in the wake of the Iranian revolution as an alliance of oil-producing monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.

This is, quite frankly, nonsensical. There is perhaps some vague Association logic with Jordan. But ... Morocco???

FT.com in its follow up only raises more questions in the later case 

Now, after decades of canny diplomacy and shifting loyalties, Jordan is finally preparing to enter what many in the country see as the safest harbour in the entire Middle East: the Gulf Co-operation Council, the alliance formed by the conservative, oil-drenched monarchies along the Persian Gulf.

According to analysts, the move would answer an old dilemma: “Since the collapse of Iraq [in 2003], Jordan has been very much left out in the cold. This move means that Jordan would become part of a collective – economically, politically and strategically,” said Nawaf Tell, the director of the Jordanian Center for Strategic Studies and a former diplomat.

Jordan was invited to the join the Gulf Co-operation Council only this week, along with Morocco. But while Moroccan commentators reacted with surprise to the announcement, saying they were unaware the country had applied in the first place, the response in Jordan was one of unconcealed delight.

At least Jordan has some direct cultural and geographic touch on GCC. Politically, however, I do not see this as being all that genuinely helpful to the Hashemite Monarchy, nor economically. The deep logic really escapes, although in some ways it is a better fit than Yemen.

The Moroccan side is just in the realm of bizarre, however, and I am actually stunned that the Palace pursued such a demarche (did they?)

In Morocco, analysts agree that closer association with the Gulf oil producers will bring economic advantages. But they also point out that the proposal has no geographical logic and appears to be politically driven.

“We were all very surprised by this,” said Nadia Lamlili, editor-in-chief of Economie et Entreprises magazine in Casablanca. “I’m not sure it has really been thought through,” she added.

Morocco has historically been part of the regional Arab Maghreb Union, which includes Algeria, Tunisia and Libya but has never made much progress towards economic integration, hampered especially by long-standing political problems between Morocco and Algeria.

A Moroccan source close to the palace emphasised on Thursday the historical association between Morocco and Gulf monarchies and said the GCC invitation should be seen in a long-term, strategic perspective, but not as preparing the way for an alliance among monarchies.

Well, actually I doubt such an association even brings any economic advantages, given the inability of the Gulf investors to really get their heads around the fact that Maghreb works differently than the Gulf or Machreq.

Going to have to talk to my palace friends to see what the take is - I wonder if on GCC got out ahead of where Morocco really is, given the upcoming constitutional reforms, etc.

For once I sympathise with otherwise somewhat annoying and tedious 20 February Movement.

Morocco’s February 20 Movement, which has been pushing for political reform, was sceptical. Osama El Khalifi, one of the movement’s founders, said the proposal looked like an attempt “to build a coalition against countries that have succeeded in making a change”.

That assessment is shared by many Jordanians. “The reading many people here have is that this is the [Arab] kingdoms trying to stand together against the Arab spring and the Arab revolution,” the Amman-based western envoy said.

Politically I don't think this is really helpful at all for the monarchy in Morocco.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 18, 2011

Now this is just odd (Bahrain tears down Pearl Roundabout monument)

Bahrain Tears Down Monument (NYTimes.com)

Bahrain tore down the monument at the center of the Pearl Roundabout, the focal point and symbolic heart of weeks of pro-democracy protests in the Gulf island kingdom.

Errrr. That thing's been there for years, what's the point of tearing it down now? It's been "violated" ?

The Al Khalifa are a right goofy bunch.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 15, 2011

Saudi soldier shot (Bahrain)

This is worrisome. More than Yemen, due to Shia angle and due to proximity to major producing fields "Libya and Middle East unrest - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

• Bahrain has declared a state of emergency. A Saudi soldier has been shot by a protester in Bahrain. A 1,000-strong force from Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council arrived in Bahrain yesterday.

I have had quite enough interesting events.  

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 14, 2011

Oh bloody hell: 1000 Saudi troops to Bahrain

This is not going to do nice things to oil pricing, not nice things at all: Libya and Middle East uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

2.22pm: More on Bahrain. This just in from Reuters:

About 1,000 Saudi soldiers entered Bahrain early on Monday to protect government facilities following recent unrest by the country's Shia Muslim majority, a Saudi official source said.
"About 1,000 Saudi soldiers have entered Bahrain early on Monday morning through the causeway to Bahrain," the source told Reuters. "They are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) force that would guard the government installations".

Nor does Bahrain's "moderate future"  look bright. Perhaps Qatar would like to build a brand spanking new naval city?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:50 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 18, 2011

Bahrain's Monarchy is flagrantly stupid

First, the bloody repression they launched seems to me to have been mostly unnecessary and just plain idiocy - unless they are willing to go the full Qadhdhafi. Of course doing so would fuck their aspirations as a banking and commerce centre right into a cocked hat.

This note from BBC on Nicholas Kristof is quite on:
BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1023: Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times tells the BBC World Service that he has heard Bahrain's royal family is unhappy with his reporting: "I've heard that through the PR firms that they hire. There is apparently a campaign to get me fired - I don't really know how they're going to proceed with that. Most remarkably, one member of the royal family tweeted that I am supplying weapons to outlaws and that I have ties to Hezbollah. To me this was a reflection of the completely delusional world in which the government lives. The government does not want reporters here... This is a wealthy country, it's cosmopolitan, it's well-educated, it's a banking centre. And then they have this thuggish behaviour, with police sent in firing on people, crowds. It is astonishing and it breaks your heart."

Presuming Kristof is correctly reporting the Royal Tweets (to be taken with a grain of salt, as of course a Tweet I am not sure is confirmable as to source, etc), that is indeed delusional. It does seem in keeping with the style of response. But the response really makes no sense given Bahrain's aspirations.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:05 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

February 17, 2011

Bahrain Protests Crushed: This perhaps isn't going to help with the financial centre aspirations

Bahrain is one of the countries in the region I have very little direct experience with, so I shall limit myself
BBC News - Bahrain protests banned as military tightens grip

There were columns of tanks and armoured personnel carriers moving through the city this morning. The area around Pearl Square, which was the home of the protesters up until 12 to 15 hours ago, is now ringfenced by the security forces.

Barbed wire has been erected; there are vehicle checkpoints and roadblocks around the city, traffic is being controlled, and the authorities have said all protests have been banned.

It was a very different scene at the hospital: one of passion, chaos, mourning - and anger. Hundreds of people were gathered outside as the ambulances turned up. Crowds rushed forward; doctors were angry because they said ambulances had been prevented from attending to those people who had been injured when the police attacked them.

This kind of crack down is likely to see ongoing violence and... well I bet the Khalifas just chose dynasty over national aspirations as a financial centre.

It does rather suggest that this really is the Arab 1848. I had my doubts.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:21 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 22, 2010

Small Cap & Dubai Getting its Groove Back

One thing Dubai continues to do well is move fast - of course moving fast in the real estate bubble got them in major trouble, but if the efforts are not at cross purposes with their various markets, this has some interesting potential.

FT.com / FT Trading Room - Dubai prepares to launch second-tier market

The tax-free DIFC financial zone, which has its own laws modelled on western regulations, would find it easier to set up a new bourse than other jurisdictions, said Mr Saidi.

“But we don’t want it to be restricted to the DIFC, we think all countries in the region would benefit from such a market,” he said.

A second-tier market would remove some of the financial and regulatory barriers to listing that put off some smaller companies from initial public offerings on local markets, where companies have to float 55 per cent of their shares at a price dictated by the authorities, rather than via a book-building process.

Mr Saidi said there are many companies based in the “free zones” of Dubai – government-run business parks that allow foreigners to hold 100 per cent stakes in their businesses – that would want to use the new exchange to engineer a financial exit from their businesses.

Many of these foreign-owned businesses, spanning sectors such as logistics, technology and media, have also faced challenges in raising capital in the downturn as bank credit has tightened up.

Amid Dubai’s economic downturn, the government is focusing on developing small- and medium-sized enterprises. Dubai is mulling the introduction of special visas for entrepreneurs and new regulations to make it easier for small businesses to be set up. The UAE is also working on insolvency laws to allow more orderly winding up of companies.

The plan for a new sub-market comes amid broader exchanges consolidation in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates.

DIFC-based NasdaqDubai and Dubai Financial Market, the government-controlled domestic bourse, have linked their trading platforms in a bid to encourage DFM retail investors to inject liquidity into NasdaqDubai, the listing home to global ports operator DP World.

Officials are also working on a merger between the stock exchanges of Dubai and Abu Dhabi to create a deeper, pan-UAE market, which would likely become more attractive to foreign funds.

Emphasis added. This sounds like Dubai Gov is starting to get back to the bread and butter, after wasting vast capital and effort over the past few years playing real estate speculation. Now if they can suck up the RE pain, maybe they can jaw the developers into making those ridiculous towers affordable. 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 21, 2010

Gulf Science

First, let me register my deep irritation in reading headlines like this from the FT (and other newspapers). It is lazy and stupid journalism. The Gulf is not the Arab World in toto.

FT.com  - Arab states try to fill scientific shortfall

Arab states try to fill scientific shortfall

By James Drummond and Robin Wigglesworth


In 2004, the UN Arab Development Report characterised Arab universities as “either buried in dust or smothered by ideologies”. A Unesco report in 2005 identified the region as “the least research-and-development-intensive area in the world”.

But Gulf states in particular are now expending huge amounts of petrodollars on education, in an attempt to catch up with the developed world and train nationals for more diversified, non-hydrocarbon economies in the future.

“The Arab world used to be a prime place for science, research and technology, but in the past couple of centuries it has deteriorated a lot, due to politics and ignorance. Things finally look like they are getting better now,” says Wael al-Delaimy, an associate professor of medicine at University of California, San Diego.

Abu Dhabi, for example, intends to pump Dh4.9bn ($1.3bn) into research and development by 2018 under a strategic plan for higher education announced last month. The emirate’s plan calls for 28 per cent of its graduates to be in engineering-related areas. But currently only about 9 per cent of higher education students are in those fields, says the Abu Dhabi Education Council.

Institutions such as the Qatar Foundation, home to branches of six US universities, the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, and the Sorbonne and New York university branches being established in Abu Dhabi, are trying to fill the shortfall. Most are teaching establishments for undergraduates. But the intention is that, with time, they will conduct research and award doctorates. ....
Not all has gone well. This month John Perkins, the provost of Abu Dhabi’s Masdar Institute, said he was leaving for “personal reasons”. The Masdar Institute has been formed in partnership with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and aims to carry out research in renewable technologies. ....

“They [the universities] are slowly beginning to realise that money cannot buy people, especially scientists,” says Hilal Lashuel of the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne. “The lack of equal treatment is a major problem. Hiring and pay is based on nationality and not merit, and Arab scientists are often disadvantaged when it comes to both.”

In Dubai, Tarik Yousef, the dean of the Dubai School of Government, a think tank, agrees that a research culture cannot be developed remotely or by one and two-week visits. ....  “I don’t think they [the universities] are going about it the right way. Who are they using to recruit people? [They use] this executive approach,” Mr Yousef says. Some universities are losing as many people each year as they recruit, he says. ....

“Academics want time for research – and they want to be rewarded . . . It has to be a two-way conversation,” he says. “The first question people ask me is: what is my teaching load? How much administrative work am I going to have to do? Am I going to be able to organise seminars and attend conferences and deliver papers?”

Another issue is citizenship. Gulf states have historically granted citizenship grudgingly if at all. In a globalised business such as academia where people prefer not to move frequently, the prospect of working for decades in a country and then being denied the right to stay there is unattractive.

States that offer a route to citizenship are more appealing, academics say. To this end, Mr Yousef says Qatar and Bahrain are offering passports to talented academics to entice them. ....

On the last item, I rather suspect that unless the Academic is an Arab, the citizenship angle is not appealing at all. Even as an Arab, the citizenship offer, given Gulf, is not necessarily an attractive deal.

More fundamentally, there is nothing much in the Gulf society that suggests that they will be able to create any kind of merit based academics. I could see this working in say Egypt, if they got a huge chunk of money, but only barely. The Gulf, no way. This is futile throwing money at a symptom.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:50 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 08, 2010

Emirtes, how very unemirati this bombing idea

This is so very un-Emirati, saying something in public like this:

FT.com UAE official backs use of force against Iran

The United Arab Emirates on Wednesday tried to control the diplomatic fallout after the country’s ambassador to Washington urged the US to use force to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Yousef al-Otaiba, an influential figure in the UAE’s government, told an audience at the Aspen Ideas Festival in the US that a nuclear-armed Iran would be a greater disaster than a military strike.
 
His remarks shed rare light on the hawkish attitude of some Arab states that are desperate to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In public, the UAE and some of its neighbours try to maintain cordial relations with Tehran. Privately, however, they appear terrified of the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran dominating the region.

They also fear that Barack Obama’s administration is moving towards a policy of containing Iran, rather than stopping its drive towards nuclear capability

Not that an American military strike on Iran makes any sense at all.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

March 31, 2010

Dubai Financial Job Bloodletting

Reading this I am have a slight frission  - chill - schadenfreunde having turned down Khalij opportunities as I did not believe in the fundamentals. Doubtless I missed out on making stupid money, but personally I get rather more satisfaction from working on things I consider real (even if risky)

FT.com / Alarm raised over Gulf financial job losses

It has been a torrid 12 months for white-collar employment in the Gulf – and for the agencies who act as intermediaries in hiring senior executives.

In February, GulfTalent, a recruitment agency, said that Dubai lost 17 per cent of its professional workforce last year and reported that western foreign nationals had been hit the hardest.
 
...
The picture in financial services is more mixed [than property developers]. Headhunters say that the international institutions are used to slumps in business, and made their reductions in the immediate wake of the collapse of Lehmann Brothers in late 2008. By contrast local institutions, with a few notable exceptions, have not made large-scale redundancies.

...

Somewhat selective quoting, but this seems entirely predictable on some level, if one was not a complete PR Release sucker.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:26 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 27, 2010

Ongoing Social Vents: Yemen Child Marriage, Saudi Poetess Scolds Muftis, etc.

Molestation Contestation: Yemen Battles Over Child Marriage Laws.

Muftis Get Rapped: Poetess Socks It to the Jeddah Valley PTA. "I have seen evil in the eyes of fatwas. . . barbaric, angry and blind, wearing death as a robe cinched with a belt".

Non-Mideast Non-Muslims Riot Over Non-Danish Video Images. But, but, but,only Muslims get violent when imagery of their sacred founder gets offensive, right? Others never do that, at least these days, right? Occasionally elsewhere too though, theatrical performances can also unite a few Muslims and Christians (see last paragraph) in shared death-threat issuance. This must be what is meant by the unifying power of art. . . .

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 24, 2010

Dubai: DIFC head detained.

Well this is quite intriguing.

FT.com / In depth - Dubai detains former finance centre chief

Continue reading "Dubai: DIFC head detained."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 19, 2010

Ah, a warm and fuzzy feel. : Blogs as sources of info on Gulf Finance

While in some ways sad that we (Aqoul) missed that boat - no matter I am far too busy to pretend to that any more, this warmed my heart: FT.com / Companies / Financial Services - Blogs air views on stifled Gulf finance

Great understatement though:

Blogs air views on stifled Gulf finance

By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi

Published: March 3 2010 16:44 | Last updated: March 3 2010 16:44

Local media coverage of financial affairs can be anodyne in the Gulf, largely thanks to stifling press laws, corporate meddling and a culture of self-censorship. But financial blogs are starting to proliferate and can offer a valuable, alternative, take on events.

Many local newspapers, with a few exceptions, print newswire stories or press releases verbatim and often steer away from contentious, politically sensitive stories. Blogs, meanwhile, have given many locals and expatriates an outlet for venting their views on the stories of the day.

“Blogs are definitely useful in the region, but are only coming of age now,” says a senior analyst in Dubai. “I always look at blogs to get a sense of grassroot sentiment and hear the views of other people.”

Most regional financial and economic blogs and forums are in Arabic but several English-language sites have emerged. One of the first was Sharewadi, which is mainly devoted to financial talk and data in the United Arab Emirates, and is in many ways the prototype of similar websites that have sprung up across the region.

...  “That guy at Sharewadi deserves a medal,” says Ken Monahan, a former senior banker in the Gulf. “There has been some really insightful stuff on there over the years.”  ...

 There is a need for more robust discussion of company financials in the region.”

Emphasis added.
On the highlighted, no bloody kidding.

Although one item that caught my attention is re Arabic language blogs on finance. Could anyone recommend those worth reading? I have yet to find one, but I must confess that I became turned off on the tripe usually written on economics in Arabic that I stopped looking seriously.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 16, 2010

Guy Fakes Salafism in Yemen & Spills the Hummus on the Goings-On (Real and Imputed)

Not exactly a Black Like Me story, but an American a-religious white guy writer sham-converts (or reverts, if one can do that shamically) to a salafi Islam in Yemen to study the natives and non-natives there, including Americans who go over there for Islamic or Arabic education. One was the guy who shot up the Arkansas military base. Aqoulite Shaheen takes down some of the odder generalizations and assumptions of the sham-converter down below in the comments. (A modern tip of the whig to commenter Antiquated Tory for the link at Global Post.)

Continue reading "Guy Fakes Salafism in Yemen & Spills the Hummus on the Goings-On (Real and Imputed)"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:12 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 05, 2010

I have a vewwy gweat fwiend in Iswamabad named Biggus . . . .

Life imitates Monty Python's "Biggus" scene in Life of Brian as a proposed Pakistani ambassador to Saudi Arabia is rejected due to what his name sounds like in slang Arabic. Do you feel the need to titter when I say the name of my fwiend, Akbar..... Zeb? He has a wife you know, her name is Incontinentia. . . Incontinentia Teez. Sorry for the Python references.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 26, 2010

Gulf Labor Markets

Bahrain and the UAE have adopted different approaches while addressing the lack of citizens in their private sectors. Most Gulf states have tried to create quotas for their nationals in private enterprises. Businesses have resisted, fearing less productive workers, and these policies have accomplished little. Oman has been a partial exception, mostly because its relatively poor government cannot really afford to support all its citizens, leave alone employ everyone who wants a job.

Continue reading "Gulf Labor Markets"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 11:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 29, 2009

Yemen: fingers in the dyke.

Reading articles like this from FT.com, on Yemen "Social pressures weigh on poorest Arab state" frankly are depressing even for a MENA optimist. The "good news" is Yemen is building a LNG facility. Wonderful. It will give the state the money to buy more weapons to pretend to assert control over the pseudo state. That does not change the deadly death cycle of Yemani society, with rapidly declining water yields (from non-renewable water resources), the dead weight of the Qat production (itself water intensive), and a birth rate that is of Sub Saharan African levels.

Social pressures weigh on poorest Arab state

Just over a month ago, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s president, joined international oil executives to inaugurate his impoverished country’s biggest industrial venture – a liquefied natural gas project.

For a veteran leader of the Arab world’s poorest nation, the launch of the plant could not have come soon enough. The $4.5bn (£2.8bn, €3.3bn) project is expected to generate between $30bn and $50bn in income for the government over the plant’s 25-year lifespan.

To be honest, it is really very hard to have hope for Yemen - even harder than say Egypt.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:16 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 27, 2009

Further to Dubai and Gulf Analysis

There is not much to add to this, other than the perhaps uncharitable observation that after one has had a nice laissez les bons temps rouler (to use the Acadien) it is not productive (or rather useful to pretend the hangover is the fault of the bartenders: Suq Al Mal

There's a commentary in The National on the relative negotiating positions of the banks and Dubai Inc which is to put it mildly a bit unbalanced. It seems much of this is based on comments from the borrower.

It's unclear if this article is meant as propaganda to raise morale on the home front. Or it reflects the thinking of decision makers at Dubai Inc - that they really believe they are in the driver's seat. If it does, a very dangerous delusion.

Certainly, Dubai Inc is not without leverage. The sheer quantum of debt and the government connection give Dubai a good deal of negotiating power. But that power is not unlimited. It cannot serve up whatever dish it wants.

Indeed, but after a 15 year bender, the hangover is hard to accept.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 15, 2009

Can't Haq It: Saudi-Israeli Collaboration To Stop Invader Bots

CAPTCHA, those squiggly letters on website and various user-i.d. portals you have to figure out and type in order to access something cybernetic and which ensures you are not a "bot" made out of silicon yourself, has been hacked. To the rescue now is a team so diverse, some have to kill each other if called into belligerent military service. But using 3-D animation and soon presenting in the land of anime, they may yet save us from the diminishing security of having to puzzle out a green angel-hair pasta version of "quetzlcoatl" and then type it in when we forget a password on gmail.

[R]esearchers at Tel Aviv University - part of an international team - have developed a "synthesis technique" to overcome the "bots" by generating images of animated 3-D objects that are detectable by humans but difficult for an automatic algorithm to recognize. The team . . . included colleagues at King Abdullah University in Saudi Arabia, The University of Delhi in India and researchers in Taiwan.... Their findings are being presented this week ... in Yokohama, Japan

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 14, 2009

More Emirate Suprises: Abu Dhabi

Well, pain has effects: Abu Dhabi Gives Dubai $10 Billion for Use on Debt - NYTimes.com

Monday’s bailout came as a shock to many investors. But a growing sense within the region that other indebted companies, in particular Dubai Holdings, the conglomerate owned by Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, would also have trouble meeting their obligations seems to have pressed Abu Dhabi to take immediate action.

Abu Dhabi may also have been influenced by the aggressive pose taken by Nakheel’s creditors, many of them foreign hedge funds who, instead of negotiating, aimed to force Dubai World into default as a means of securing some its valuable assets, like its highly strategic port operations.

While there have always been tensions between the expansionist ambitions of Dubai and more conservative Abu Dhabi, the prospect of foreign investors laying claim to some of the United Arab Emirates’ most valuable properties seems to have brought the two emirates together — for the time being at least.

Abu Dhabi was also taken aback by the harsh reaction by global investors after Dubai World asked for the delay on the debt repayments. Credit rating agencies downgraded most institutions in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, making it extremely difficult for these companies to raise funds abroad.

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:48 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 12, 2009

Genuine surprise, Abu Dhabi Trail

I have to say, this bit of news from FT.com that Son of late Abu Dhabi ruler put on trial is a real surprise.

Abu Dhabi authorities have put on trial Sheikh Issa bin Zayed al-Nahyan, a member of the ruling family caught on tape apparently torturing an Afghan business associate, the Financial Times can reveal.

Sheikh Issa, one of 19 sons of Sheikh Zayed, the founding father of the United Arab Emirates and Abu Dhabi’s late ruler, is charged with causing harm and endangering life.

This unprecedented trial, held away from the public eye, will be seen as a barometer for the rule of law in Abu Dhabi, where the lines between the government and ruling families are blurred.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:25 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 07, 2009

Algeria: Complementary Finance Law 09 & Cutting off the nose to spite the face

I remain fascinated by the ongoing saga of the reaction to Algeria's "Complementary Finances Law 2009" that came out this summer, and imposed a number of post-facto restrictions on foreign investment in the country. The Algerian reaction has largely been queerly spiteful, and indeed the motivations for the restrictions largely driven by a rather Command & Control understanding of the economy that itself is largely spiteful (foreigners not investing enough [due to unattractive conditions], why we must force them! And punish them for investing in Tunisia and Morocco!), rather than seeking an understanding of what would encourage more investment and more activity by foreign firms inside Algeria.

This article is fairly typical, LFC 2009 : à Alger, les délégations étrangères continuent d’afficher publiquement leur désaccord avec le gouvernement (Comp. Finance Law 2009, in Algiers, foreign delegations continue to publicly express their disagreement with the Government)

De tels propos montrent bien que malgré les apparences, les étrangers continuent leur campagne de mobilisation pour faire comprendre à l'Algérie que ce nouveau climat économique n'est pas le plus propice au développement des investissements étrangers dans le pays.

Une initiative qui a l'air de ne pas tellement déranger Alger qui reçoit au plus haut niveau ces « visiteurs », non sans avoir ces derniers mois tapé du point sur la table pour rappeler sa souveraineté. Il faut dire que cette mobilisation des acteurs économiques étrangers paraît assez exceptionnelle. Est-elle aussi importante dans le cas d'autres pays, qui ont des réglementations autant si ce n'est plus contraignantes pour les investisseurs. On peut citer par exemple le cas de l'Arabie Saoudite où toute implantation étrangère ne peut se faire qu'avec un associé local et où existent des quotas d'embauches d'employés locaux.

Trans
Such propositions demonstrate that despite appearances, the foreigners are continuing their campaign to make Algeria understand that this new economic climate isn't the most propitious for the development of foreign investment in the country.

An initiative that does not have the appearance of particularly disturbing Algiers, which has been receiving at the highest level these "visitors" but not without tapping on the table to draw attention to its sovereignty these past months. It must be noted that this mobilisation of the foreign economic actors appears to be quite exceptional. Is it as significant in the case of other countries which have regulations as constrained if not more so? One can cite the example of Saudi Arabia where all foreign investment has to be done with a local associate and where local employee quotes exist.

Ah charming, one really is on the wrong end of development if Saudi Arabia is your example. Unsurprisingly the Journalist however has his facts wrong. The Kingdom actually revised its investment law in 2000, i.e. a decade ago, to allow 100% foreign ownership (although it does advantage - carrot, not stick - JVs in certain tax areas) in most areas. Of course the other item this rather impoverished piece of commentary journalism misses is that most countries with these restrictions have not recently imposed them, indeed the general trend globally is to lift such restrictions. The Saudisation law re employment is a rather silly thing to argue with, as it is generally considered a flop (lots of fake jobs for unproductive Saudi employees).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 06, 2009

Kuwait sale of Citi

I am intrigued by this, FT.com - Kuwait fund sells $4bn Citi stake. The timing is interesting. It's quiet (not high profile) and rather clearly says that holding on longer from their view is not ... the best use of their capital.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:28 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 30, 2009

Dubai, a succient "why the impact"?

This from FT's Lex "Dubai and sell":

So why the panic? There are sensible explanations. The first is that after a too-quick-to-be-true recovery from the biggest meltdown for generations, Dubai is a reminder the world is not out of the woods. A large default in some faraway land reinforces the sense that another shock can come from anywhere. Second, the news is slapping investors out of their silly belief that emerging markets deserve risk premiums barely above developed ones. Finally, Dubai is a warning not to assume investments are always state-guaranteed, even in this age of government largesse.

Emphasis added

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:41 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

November 29, 2009

Dubai, oh My IV: support, non-support and haircuts

First as noted on Suq Al Mal the UAE Central Bank stepped up with some panic stopping emergency facilities. Although I am now en route back home and away from the centre of the storm, I am certain the expat chatter and potential for panic driven bank runs was (is) there. Also from NY Times U.A.E. Will Support Banks in Dubai Credit Crisis some further detail also at FT. As Abu Arqala noted, issuance of a public statement during the Eid holiday is not ordinary, indeed rather extraordinary.

Second, I have been chewing on the question of bailing out Nakheel or letting it die. On one hand, abstracting away from fears of setting off a crisis, I fully believe the idiots that financed Nakheel fully deserve a nice splash of ice cold water in the face. Balanced against that, however, is my fear that the more sober emerging markets in my zone of MENA will be semi-innocent collateral damage, largely due to the rather clumsy and stupid way that Dubai has handled this (highlighting the fact that behind the facade of modern marketing, the regime has not genuinely modernised its attitudes towards communication, it's all Medh all the time). Prepping the grounds better for the bad news, rather than an unprepared statement before a long set of international market holidays probably should have seen the Nakheel event go somewhat more smoothly (or at least not have the immediate panic).

Continue reading "Dubai, oh My IV: support, non-support and haircuts"

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November 28, 2009

Dubia, oh My III: Ongoing thoughts.

First, from comments, the author of this post : Suq Al Mal: Dubai US$5 Billion Debt Sales - Less Than Meets the Eye and An Explanation for the Restructuring at Dubai World helpfully draws attention to some very key details that deserve wider attention (as i have not seen them raised elsewhere).

In particular this:

It seems that the US$5 billion sale was actually US$2 billion in cash now with the promise to buy the remaining US$3 billion over the next year.

I rather find this and other details confirming that the easy "Abu Dhabi will ride into the rescue of Dubai" commentary is far too superficial. (As this Reuters story on "aid to Dubai [from Abu Dhabi] 'case by case'" ; "... a senior Abu Dhabi official said on Saturday [that] "We will look at Dubai's commitments and approach them on a case-by-case basis. It does not mean that Abu Dhabi will underwrite all of their debts," ...."Some of Dubai's entities are commercial, semi-government ones. Abu Dhabi will pick and choose when and where to assist," he said.")The Cousins in Abu Dhabi will want their pound of flesh from the Al Maktoum. I'd suggest that commentators looking at this in a purely theoretical framework of sovereigns etc are going to miss important parts of the intra-family dynamics that will definitely complicate things (and note, more of the Al Maqtoum have been moved into Dubai positions of late, technocrats losing power). Too many bank analysts in Dubai have the critical analytical sophistication of high schoolers, merely asserting their hope of unbounded Abu Dhabi largesse as the analytical anchor (of course merely asserting absurdly optimistic base case scenarios was long par for the course in Dubai).

Otherwise, this post in FT's Alphaville quoting a rather sharper analyst in Dubai posing the question of whether the real depth of the debt hole is known is worth a read. It also raises the contagion risk that I touched on. I'm a lot less sanguine about that risk than the analysis there, as this as a  calculated manoeuvre as Dubai's position may not resolve well - given all the ingredients of the intra-Emirati family fight over control and power, family struggles tending easier to ugly fights. Note, for example, from FT.com / Middle East - How the Dubai crisis unfolded

November 26

Global markets slump on fears that any Dubai default could trigger contagion in other emerging markets. There is still no comment from the department of finance, except to insist that DP World is ring-fenced. Bondholders, led by a New York hedge fund, start to organise themselves to appoint legal advisers to communicate with Dubai World and mull legal action to recover assets.

Then, at about 11pm local time, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman of Dubai’s supreme fiscal committee, breaks the emirate’s silence with a curt statement saying that he understands the concerns of the markets but is determined to take decisive action on Dubai World’s debt.

“The government is spearheading the restructuring of this commercial operation in the full knowledge of how the markets would react,” he says.

(emphasis added).

Otherwise, some other comments of interest, from FT.com - Dubai gambles with its financial reputation relative to financial investors who've taken a narrow analysis:
 

The emirate’s inability to repay also casts a shadow on the Maktoum family’s vital relations with its cousins who rule Abu Dhabi, the al-Nahyans, who seem to be letting their poorer kin sweat it out in public. One wondered what price Abu Dhabi might demand for a full bail-out. One plausible option was a tighter union among the seven UAE states, with maverick Dubai forced to trim its embarrassing ties with Iran and Israel. Dubai might also have been asked to merge its independent customs service into the federal bureaucracy. Sheikh Mohammed may be calculating that Dubai’s foreign policy freedom is more valuable than its financial reputation.

There is logic in this. The bankers in London and New York have been important in nurturing Dubai’s growth. But the emirate’s ties with the region – Karachi, Mumbai, Riyadh and Tehran – are those that will make or break this city.

(emphasis added)

Of course the Al Maktoum just made the lives of their Gulf cousins and neighbours rather more 'interesting" which is certainly going to make this process more complex than someone sitting at a monitor in London might think. Also relative to the process, this observation from FT.com  Editorial - A breathtaking blunder in Dubai:

... Instead of these Ivy League-educated whiz kids, he [the Emir] has fallen back on his family, the court and the traditional merchant class. .... Although, like everything else in Dubai, it was unexplained, it was interpreted as recognition that the emirate had over-borrowed and over-reached. Yet, it is not obvious that the way to re-establish credibility with the markets is to follow this up with a runic message on deferring debt repayments – and then disappear on a four-day public holiday.

Indeed, but it is easier to understand as an internal Emirati "settling of accounts."

Also worth quoting, from the same,

Why Dubai World felt the need to defer repayment of a $3.5bn Islamic bond of its Nakheel property subsidiary is also a puzzle.

Abu Dhabi stumped up $10bn in February; two of its banks bought $5bn in Dubai paper on Wednesday [NB: see quote above]; a $1.9bn bond issue was three times subscribed three weeks ago; and Dubai is planning to return to the market next month for a further $1.25bn. It has the money to meet its obligations – unless its debts are significantly greater than stated. Until now, moreover, there has never been any doubt that Abu Dhabi – senior partner and censorious older brother in the federal United Arab Emirates, owner of the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world (worth perhaps $900bn), and sitting on one tenth of the world’s oil deposits – would stand behind Dubai. Dubai World’s biggest creditors, furthermore, are down the road in Abu Dhabi.

Yet, the Abu Dhabi authorities appear to have had no inkling Dubai was going to spring this surprise, which is already having devastating results. The cost of protecting Dubai’s paper against default has quadrupled – putting the emirate in the same league as Iceland – and the credit ratings of its leading companies have been downgraded. Yet the fallout in raising the cost of insuring sovereign debt has spread not only across the Gulf but throughout emerging markets. This is a mess.

Something here does not add up. Why would Dubai risk such damage to its reputation when the recovery of its still viable entrepôt model depends on the confidence of the capital markets?

The answers are doubtless found not on the capital markets, bond traders in London and New York are oft useful dupes...

There is also an interesting set of questions about the Islamic finance angle to this, and a rather misplaced bit of confidence in those instruments.

Continue reading "Dubia, oh My III: Ongoing thoughts."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 27, 2009

Dubai oh my, Bis Default & Logic

Obviously in financial and economic circles the debates are raging like nobody's business on
(i) The technical default (or effectively asking for it, even as an optional choice, it is a "credit event"), why
(ii) Timing and thinking

So far, I think everyone feels that it must be driven by some serious dissension between the Dubai and Abu Dhabi families, and Al Maktoum decided to go nuclear (probably rather than pay a serious pound of flesh in lost assets to Abu Dhabi). A "My pain is your pain" calculation. Also they seem to have bizarrely thought that this news could be "buried" over the holidays - very bad miscalculation. Trying to bury it (maybe buying time) after spending the past few weeks talking happy talk (rather than managing down expectations) just made it far worst, as the rumours flying now are really catastrophic.

Of course, a deeper problem may be that Emirates in whole may be more liquidity constrained than they have let on, and as such Abu Dhabi despite its massive pools of capital, feels obliged to bargain hard for its constrained liquidity to begin with. Nevertheless, I favour the Family Argument thesis (between Dubai and Abu Dhabi) that got bitter, thus provoking a stunningly ill-considered decision that was also just stunningly poorly framed and timed.... and presented. Impressive actually the extent of bad actually.

As for Dubai, even if they walk back, Dubai has inexplicably taken a shotgun and fired at its own foot. Best case, they lose some of their own toes, worst case.... worst case they blew off their foot and ours too as this has all the ability to set off Financial Crisis 2008 Part II, at the very least for emerging markets that are heavily exposed to international flows.

This is a nasty event with wider implications, but underlines what I have been saying for years, too much of the Emirates - Dubai story has been of dubious transparency.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:58 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

Dubai, my my. Defaults and MENA

I've been silent for a while, consumed with the rather unpleasant task of wrapping up an office (whose staff is mystefied by the exit, as they did better than forecast numbers, but that's another story), however Dubai's staggeringly stupid decision to suggest defaulting on debt
has too much juice to miss, in particular as I am in Dubai right at this very moment (although flying out very shortly). It's really quite a stunned place, and I think except the boot-lickers who'll justify anything, there is much befuddlement. Adding more later.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:24 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 22, 2009

Chickens, Dubai, roosting

As I am not a neutral observer, I can only pass this along with a raised eye brow FT.com  - Dubai ousts financial chief over debt troubles

While these guys are not my world - in fact I get to gleefully ignore them usually (operationally)- the news does bring a small bit of schadenfreunde
but that is mitigated by the fact that am spending much time fllying in my empire(sic) to shut down things.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:36 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 05, 2009

Dubai labour exploitation (FT: Hidden victims)

An interesting and sad arty from FT on Dubai's seamy underside: FT.com  - Dubai’s hidden victims of recession, of which the truly unpleasant part is the  ongoing practise - which should never be permitted in any modern country - of taking workers passports (by the employer). A slaving mentality Dubai has never quite gotten over.
 

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October 27, 2009

Saudis complain of American legacy in transport

I found this sourly amusing, from FT.com / Transport - Saudis stuck in a jam over public transport 

Many Americans blame Saudis for the price of petrol needed to fill their SUVs and motor homes. But Saudis have their own complaint: they hold American contractors who helped build their road networks responsible for the traffic congestion and lack of efficient public transport.

“American builders of Riyadh modelled it after Los Angeles, with highways and big roads, but with no plan for public transportation,” says Salwa, a businesswoman in Riyadh. “The government just woke up to the importance of trains for linking cities after thousands of Saudis and pilgrims have been killed on those highways. But they are doing nothing about easing traffic in Riyadh or other cities.” ... The need for public transport has become urgent. With hundreds of thousands of cars and taxis, a 15-minute trip to downtown Riyadh can take more than 45 minutes during rush-hour. When people go shopping and dining in the evening, cars on the main roads slow to a standstill. .... Experts say low petrol prices, low-wage drivers, and Saudi and expatriate preferences for buying large cars create disincentives for building public transport. Almost 1m new vehicles are imported to Saudi Arabia each year, half of which are private cars, says John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi.
 

Emphasis added. American sprawl legacy, actually Saudi complaints in this area are probably rather more founded than American complaints about petrol prices, although the Saudis could have opted for proper urban planning, but America was seductive in the 1960s.

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September 09, 2009

Dubai Debt Analysis

Middle East Economic Digest has an interesting arty on the UAE/ Dubai debt problem, Dubai needs long-term plan to tackle the debt mountain which is worth a read and a comment (I had a little note The UAE Real Estate Ice Berg on this at Lounsbury).

Continue reading "Dubai Debt Analysis"

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July 31, 2009

Subtle Items to Follow re Gulf Long Term Development.

The following article seems quite tedious. In fact it is a step in an interesting denouement, and should be real signals as to whether the Gulf is really developing or is merely a oil and gas financed mirage:

FT.com  Bahrain central bank intervenes

Bahrain's central bank said yesterday it had taken control of two Bahrain-based banks owned by two prominent Saudi companies that are locked in a dispute as they struggle with financial difficulties

Oddly five years ago I had rather more faith in Dubai and Bahrain. It's queer, the oil boom that fuelled the past few years of development significant damaged my expectations almost in line with the degree to which they captured Global Market attention. Let me first say that if you are Hot Money investor (i.e. a trader) and are clued in enough to be right on top of regional developments (clued in meaning not that you're clever with your maths and are a Zawya subscriber, etc, but that you have the right personal connections etc to have a sense of what is behind the published infos - short term [i.e. less than 5 yr holding period] trading in MENA on published information is a loser's game).

I rather think that there is no long term win in the Gulf, no real diversification. Dubai can not be Singapore because its back-region is too weak (although if Iran does not shape up, Dubai as Iran's Hong Kong can work - but Dubai as Saudi Arabia / Emirates / Kuwait Singapore is a failure: no matter what the gulf does, it is unsustainable post-oil, nothing relative to climate trends nor own native competences nor other factors suggests they can overcome). And generally if you are looking at a longish term, I think reforming 'real' countries like Syria or farther along reformers in the Maghreb, or Turkey or potentials like Iran are far, far better bets. As would be a country like Oman, insofar as if Oman, even at this late date, decided to create (and do right) a mini Dubai, it would easily capture the Dubai Asia traffic and be a better geographical partner for Iran and the Asian traffic. Pity really, Oman is leaving mega money on the table as they are perfectly placed to do Dubai, but better insofar as Dubai has proved the model can work - I do not mean here the flashy towers, but the trade and finance logistics. The flashy towers and the last 4 years of frenzy were a gross mistake for Dubai, one that they will pay dearly for in the long term.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:38 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 30, 2009

The Gulf, Looking for more marks in Real Estate

In some ways I adore the chutzpah of mortgage lenders in Dubai, the Emirates somewhat more broadly. In the face of what is really an obvious bubble crash, journos can still get old school quotes: FT.com: Gulf Mortgage lenders await upturn

“Until recently, the real estate markets were a one-way street where prices always went up,” says Ventakesh Srikantan, head of assets and liabilities at HSBC Middle East. “But now we are witnessing a serious property downturn and credit stresses are emerging in many portfolios.”

Property analysts are partially blaming a lack of finance for the subdued real estate market. Bankers, counter that credit is available for the right buyers, but say they have few takers in the face of uncertain economic prospects and declining real estate values.

However, bankers and analysts agree that the mortgage market still represents a vital growth segment for financial institutions in the Gulf, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where most people do not own their own homes.

There is some truth to the Saudi angle on buying homes, but how much they are willing to go for.... And as for encouraging more RE investment:

Most governments are updating their regulatory architecture, keen to encourage investment in their real estate sectors and boost home ownership among less affluent locals.

There needs to be LESS real estate investment, not more, although if (and I do not think for a moment it really does) said investment were aimed at affordable housing, well that could make some sense.

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July 25, 2009

UAE, tripping up...

FT.com's BlackBerry rogue software leaves sour taste FT.com / Middle East / Politics & Society - BlackBerry rogue software leaves sour taste

Etisalat in late June told its 145,000 BlackBerry customers to “upgrade” the software on their devices by downloading a program or “patch” that Etisalat claimed would improve performance, but users said it only drained the battery of the smart phones, prompting tech-savvy subscribers to investigate further.
 
What they discovered was that the instead of improving performance, the software “patch” – which included a mysterious file labelled “Interceptor” – was actually spyware designed to let Etisalat capture, read and store targeted customers’ e-mails.

Charming. Not surprising, but beyond the global reflexion, my quick comment is that UAE is facing more and more of this as the Spin Machine runs out of steam and journos feel less need to look in wide-eyed wonder at the empty towers.

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June 16, 2009

Can Iran Firmly Sustain An Election? Links and Stuff

Some numbers crunching here and analysis with gossip here. Word of mouthy reports of human rights leaders being arrested here. A danger of hanging chadors. Links and or leads to them, courtesy of Aqoulite Eva Luna who is too engaged to otherwise post.

So, who won?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:51 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

May 21, 2009

Divided Dubai

Dubai is a remarkable exercise in segregation. If your entire acquaintance with the place is through glossy articles in the media, you might well wonder how this could be. After all, Dubai is often described as a cosmopolitan city. You can find a remarkable range of nationalities and cuisines here, given its size, and this author has yet to see any mention of ethnic tensions in the city in the international press. What, then, is Ye Olde Top Secret Anonymous Guy talking about?

Continue reading "Divided Dubai"

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May 02, 2009

Emirates Torture, goes "global"

Well, it appears that the Abu Dhabi ruling family has gotten itself into a pickle with one of its more "tradition" minded royals. That is the torture video of Sheik Issa bin Zayed al-Nahyan. The age of youtube and fast diffusion of such media wrongfooting their Emirates image-branding. I confess when I saw this on FT etc I rather shrugged, thinking that the Emiratis would PR their way forward as usual. Certainly the medieval behaviour wasn't very surprising: Videotape Complicates U.S. Deal With Emirates - NYTimes.com

The videotape — first shown last week by ABC News — has provoked outrage from members of Congress, who said it could add fuel to lawmakers’ reservations about a pending civilian nuclear agreement between the United States and the United Arab Emirates, the seven-member federation on the Persian Gulf to which Abu Dhabi belongs.

Now, while it is probably true the source - who by name is almost certainly a Levantine, I'd guess either Palestinian and/or Lebanese [not being a binary choice per se] is without doubt somewhat slimey,

The videotape, made in 2004, emerged in a separate lawsuit filed by Bassam Nabulsi, a former business partner of Sheik Issa. Mr. Nabulsi, an American citizen from Houston, claims he was later tortured by Emirates police officers after he refused to hand over the videotape.

The tape was made by Mr. Nabulsi’s brother on orders from Sheik Issa, who liked to film torture sessions and watch them later in his palace, said Anthony G. Buzbee, Mr. Nabulsi’s lawyer.

In its statement, the government of Abu Dhabi — the emirate to whose ruling family Sheik Issa belongs — promised a “comprehensive review” of the matter. It also said the government “understands that the matter depicted on the video was resolved between the two parties and that no criminal charges were brought by either party.”

The man being tortured in the video is Mohammed Shah Poor, an Afghan grain merchant who Sheik Issa believed had cheated him, Mr. Buzbee said. Mr. Poor was gravely injured but survived, Mr. Buzbee said.

....

Daryl Bristow, Sheik Issa’s lawyer, said in a statement that “Bassam Nabulsi and his lawyer are attempting to use a videotape of a third party to influence the court and public opinion” about the lawsuit. He added that he could not comment on details because of the suit, but that “when all the facts are known, the one-sided ‘story’ being told by Nabulsi and his lawyer will be completely addressed and Nabulsi will be discredited.”

However, the fine British lawyer really should have come up with something better than Nabulsi being "discredited" - here's a hint mate, your client is on video torturing someone over a commercial transaction, and it seems highly likely that there is more video (that is they are not bluffing); one rather has to credit the probability that the client did like getting videotaped engaging in his medieval commercial dispute resolution. As such, even if Nabulsi is a total scumbag - and the fact he (or his bro) filmed torture sessions makes that near certainty - no 'discrediting' is terribly helpful to your client (well in court maybe, but one rather suspects the least of his problems is the actual court case).

This is one of those moments where lawyers should know to keep their fucking mouths shut. Second observation, do not let a lawyer be your PR person.

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April 27, 2009

Tarnishing the Emirates Image?

FT.com Video of assault draws fire for UAE

The incident threatens to tarnish the reputation of Abu Dhabi. It also poses questions about the rule of law and impunity in a nation dominated by powerful families.

Hmmm, perhaps I am overly cynical, but isn't this exactly the image of the Emiratis?

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April 21, 2009

Environmental Awareness as marketing

GCC Green Tax - American Footprints

Despite, and in some ways perhaps because of, its centrality to the world's oil industry, the Gulf region does have a high level of environmental awareness, particularly in Oman and the United Arab Emirates. The UAE's first president, in fact, publicly gave up hunting in the 1970's for ecological reasons.

This is absurdly gullible. Or rather naively put. The GCC is posturing for foreigners (and in ways they can afford, having the margins to do so).

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April 12, 2009

Reading Race in MENA: Black Imam of Mecca and American reads

While not a terrible article, the New York Times coverage of the new 'black' Imam in Mecca is subtly irritating for its facile American centric lens. A Black Imam Breaks Ground in Mecca - Biography - NYTimes.com
It's easy to be rather too nitpickily peevish about such things, but nevertheless a bit better context should have been easy to achieve here:

Officially, it was his skill at reciting the Koran that won him the position, which he carries out — like the Grand Mosque’s eight other prayer leaders — only during the holy month of Ramadan. But the racial significance of the king’s gesture was unmistakable.

Sheik Adil, like most Saudis, is quick to caution that any racism here is not the fault of Islam, which preaches egalitarianism. The Prophet Muhammad himself, who founded the religion here 1,400 years ago, had black companions. [Lounsbury: Ahem such as a certain Bilal...]

“Our Islamic history has so many famous black people,” said the imam, as he sat leaning his arm on a cushion in the reception room of his home. “It is not like the West.”

It is also true that Saudi Arabia is far more ethnically diverse than most Westerners realize. Saudis with Malaysian or African features are a common sight along the kingdom’s west coast, the descendants of pilgrims who came here over the centuries and ended up staying. Many have prospered and even attained high positions through links to the royal family. Bandar bin Sultan, the former Saudi ambassador to the United States, is the son of Prince Sultan and a dark-skinned concubine from southern Saudi Arabia.

But slavery was practiced here too, and was abolished only in 1962. Many traditional Arabs from Nejd, the central Saudi heartland, used to refer to all outsiders as “tarsh al bahr” — vomit from the sea. People of African descent still face some discrimination, as do most immigrants, even from other Arab countries. Many Saudis complain that the kingdom is still far too dominated by Nejd, the homeland of the royal family. There are nonracial forms of discrimination too, and many Shiite Muslims, a substantial minority, say they are not treated fairly.

Emphasis added.

While I would be the last to deny colour prejudice is present in the region - MENA, the Gulf, Mashriq, Maghrib - the highlighted part really is myopically American, tying explicitly colour and slavery into an automatic association. That certainly was not the case for most of Islamic history, and seeing the Nejdi prejudices as primarily or even essentially racial strikes me as rather misunderstanding Saudi society (or Gulfie society) via the eyes of American cultural norms.

The colour prejudice is there, but given slavery was except its last decades perhaps, never colour exclusive (although one should not forget that towards the end, the low-end slavery was more or less exclusively African), it is hardly the sole driver, and the profound prejudices against outsiders, including pale Lebs for example, is much more that of a parochial tribal society than the implied counterpart to American or even old European colour prejudice as such.

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Dubai Roosting

FT.com / Middle East - Former minister faces charges in Dubai

Mohammed bin Kharbash is to be sent to trial after an investigation into events at Deyaar, the real estate unit of Dubai Islamic Bank. .... Mr bin Kharbash, the former chairman of Deyaar, had allegedly helped Zach Shahin, the developer’s former chief executive, to seize company money. Mr Shahin, a US national detained by Dubai’s authorities last year, will also face charges of alleged bribe-taking. Trials have already started against other executives at Dubai Islamic Bank, in which the government holds a 30 per cent stake, as well as developers such as Sama Dubai, part of the Dubai Holding conglomerate.

Sama Dubai btw has some non trivial issues.

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April 08, 2009

But to be fair to Dubai land, Roula Khalaf

Don’t rule out Dubai comeback
The best obs here then:

Despite the misguided focus of recent years upon real estate, the economy has solid foundations. Dubai, after all, is the region’s main trading hub, with ports and airports unmatched in the Gulf. Tourism, too, will recover, and the emirate will probably remain the favourite finance base for the Middle East.

As one eminent businessman expresses it: “By [forming] a service economy, Dubai has become a clearing house for this part of the world, where suppliers of goods and services meet buyers.” The city-state will endure two bad years, he forecasts. But he concludes by insisting: “[Even as] a scaled-down version, it will still work.”

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April 07, 2009

That Dubai Theocracy. Theocracy with drunk Lebsluts and Brits

I can't resist taking another shot at Andrew Sullivan's preposterous use of the bigot-phrase dhimmitude and calling Dubai a 'theocracy' by pointing to this fine little event (with FT illustration) FT Weekend Dubai World Cup

Along the track at the 300m mark, the atmosphere among paying customers – at what is regarded as Dubai’s social event of the year – is a cross between Ascot and Cheltenham. In the “Irish village”, young male expats enjoy a Guinness or three, while in the “Bubble Lounge” girls in floaty mini-dresses and high heels drink champagne before teetering off for a photoshoot with Hello!-style magazine Ahlan!

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April 06, 2009

Just gratitious Dubai bashing, but amusing (if one ignores the idiotic parts).

Leaving aside the dopey comments about bad driving and car accidents (really the author must be terribly sheltered to find driving in Dubai all that bad) an Dubai: How not to build a city. The arty architect snobbery of course is also tiresome, although if any city deserved it, it is Dubai.

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The charming vapidness of Gulf journalism.

Gulf Expats to stay put

Many expatriate workers across the Middle East see no reason to leave their country of residence during this present economic crisis, said a survey conducted by Bayt.com, a leading job site in the region

Bayt of course is pimping its services (and given its cost structure, whistling in the wind).

I really love Gulf journalism - in English or Arabic, it manages to be pure PR driven vapidness.

Which makes me think of FT's note Dubai turns to PR to revive its image

Dubai has appointed London public relations group Finsbury to handle its financial communications strategy as the city state seeks to head off negative media coverage of its troubled economy.

Ah yes. Head off negative media coverage. Insolvency is merely an item to be spun.

Well, supposing, Dubai's restructuring of its debt bloated corporations goes well, it might just somewhat work. However, one can observe that much of the Dubai linked work (much, but not all) in North Africa has ground to a halt with hidden insolvencies ... technical delays seem to be the favoured excuse.

As an aside, this is mildly amusing as an indicator of its own black-box nature biting it in the ass:

Set up in 2006, the holding company grew in importance as officials realised that the various wings of Dubai Inc – including Dubai World, Dubai Holding and the government – had been raising debt unilaterally, leaving them in the dark about the true extent of the emirate’s liabilities.

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March 30, 2009

A Chechen in Every Potshot? Dubai Assassination

Stretching out our Dubai trilogy to 4, Chechen on-again off-again military leader, Sulim Yamadayev, who was apparently against the Russians before he was recently for them, was just shot to death while staying in the UAE. (There appears to be a pattern of exiled adversaries of current pro-Russian Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov dying in a veritable Fodor's list of the world's more glamorous cities.) It appears Dubai's gendarmes have made an arrest. In all the unhappy news about Dubai, let's not hope for "free fire zone" to replace a currently economically bumpy "free trade zone." Importing Russian affairs has typically hitherto had only a recreationally carnal implication.
In the end, though, this is probably more a Chechnya-Russia story here than a Gulf one.

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March 23, 2009

Sullivan & Overheated Blithering on about Dubai (Dhimmitude to ban nakedness.... really)

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan (March 23, 2009) - Dhimmitude In Dubai

Dhimmitude In Dubai

The joys of theocracy, even in an international city-state whose population is 80 percent foreign:

Reading Andrew Sullivan's blog in between tracking financial sector meltdown and scheming to keep my little empire going, I ran across this absurdly overheated characterisation of the new rules for Dubai's vast commercial waste lands.

As I wrote in an email to him, this is absurd bollocks as an over-reaction.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:12 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

Dubai, Bye Bye?: Guardian Lumps Gulf City's Fate with Detroit

Simon Jenkins at The Guardian declares prognosis negative on the ultimate fate of Dubai, which he has slated to be the Detroit of the Middle East, only worse, and largely on an architectural basis. My gut and a brief impression there in real time tend to disagree. But folks with real data and experience are out there. (UPDATE: One of our Aqoul circle opines differently from Jenkins here (disclaimer, author didn't write the overenthusiastic tite). And now, for the Dubai-curious. a bit of Jenkins below the break.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:56 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 21, 2009

Baha'i Anxiety: Sects and Vile Hints in Iran

Several leaders in the Baha'i faith -- that other other other other Abrahamic monotheism -- have been charged in Iran with espionage and other crimes, with possible death penalty exposure. These were generally seen as pretext charges for a broad official chronic program of persecution. The charges are regarded as probable pretext most especially because Baha'i have little access to secrets, being denied official employment, and also because the alleged country of espionagery, Israel, is naturally going to have relatively extensive ties with the Baha'i leaders because the city of Haifa, Israel is the site of the Baha'i Vatican. The Baha'i world headquarters have been situated there because that religion's founding family settled there in early 20th century Palestine around the time of the British Mandate's start, and after exile from Iran/Persia where they and the faith had originated.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:57 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 19, 2009

Double Fault!

Dubai has spent the past decade or so doing everything it can think of in order to raise its profile. In the past week, however, two separate international events have been completely overshadowed by controversies. I wouldn't be surprised if the city's leaders spent a few days pining for the good old days of security through obscurity.

Continue reading "Double Fault!"

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February 18, 2009

And in the realm of unsurprising, in a downturn, Emiratis can't be fired...

This I find simply amusing, in a vague sort of way:UAE to safeguard jobs of nationals

The United Arab Emirates labour ministry on Wednesday said it would regulate the dismissal of nationals working in the private sector, raising another level of protection around the local workforce as the ravages of the financial crisis cut deep into the Gulf state. ... Property and financial companies, especially in Dubai, have been shedding staff since the credit crunch triggered a real estate crash in the emirates. The gloom has spread to other previously vibrant sectors, such as tourism, .... private companies will only be able to dismiss UAE nationals for serious misconduct, including absenteeism, theft or drunkenness. The economic downturn will not be reason enough to make Emirati staff redundant. .... One human resources officer, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue, said the move could affect the flexibility of employers and hurt Dubai’s competitiveness.

Ah well, the great subsidized Real Estate Scheme pretending to be shopping tourism wasn't really competitive regardless. Dubai is fucked into a cocked hat.

Nevertheless, they haven't gotten to the Algerian level of plain idiocy yet. More on that tomorrow.

Powered by ScribeFire.

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February 12, 2009

Dubai: Hype does not in fact immunise

Having taken a rather sceptical view of Dubai for a while, and been disgusted with, e.g. the FT allowing itself to print arties re Dubai & Gulf insulated from the global storms, I have taken some sour pleasure in this: Laid-Off Foreigners Flee as Dubai Spirals Down as well as the earlier Times arty on the same phenomena. Worth a ponder as to impact, I rather suspect that the Dubai black box shall have to be substantially unwound.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 12, 2009

Not Gaza: The Dubai Hangover

First, this post is not about Gaza. Gaza sucks, it will continue to suck with or without the Israelis blowing the fuck out of school children & generally demonstrating that formerly oppressed peoples are absolutely brilliant at using their suffering to justify replicating the same dehumanisation of their enemies du jour (of course MENA & SSAfrica provides less media friendly examples as well) and unless the US decides to stop being the dog wagged by the tail, nothing will change. I remain favourable to expelling everyone and resettling the entire "Holy Land" with Turks, who at least can properly plan religious holidays.

Rather more interesting, the slow motion, semi-disguised implosion of Dubai and its real estate bubble. The FT's recent(ish) article on emerging Dubai Real Estate Scam/Scandals gave me a fine tickle of schadenfreude [let me confess that despite having studied in Berlin, I have to recheck the spelling every time as it never looks right...]. Although this merits further comment (that you may or may not get depending on the state of my business ventures and level of paranoia), it is worth noting that the Great Credit Unwinding, although it initially generated schadenfreude among the Gulf Arabs, is now exposing the fine little house of cards that was Dubai Real Estate. In many ways I rather regret this, as in the end I fear that Dubai's quasi liberalism could be discredited, but they brought this on themselves by losing sight of the core value proposition that made Dubai of 1995-2005 (pls note, I just pulled those dates out of my addled impressionistic memory, they are not serious, one could vary 2-3 years on the end date, start date, eh, I dunno) a real value proposition and standard setter for the Mashriq region with fairly liberal values, ease of business, and not too insane speculation. Then Hubris set in. I think it was somewhere between 2003 and 2005.

Regardless, the potential collapse of Dubai as well as the real damage done to the US and the UK represents serious damage to the Liberal economic model in the MENA region. While the US clearly went off on a bender (and Dubai on a vaguely similar one - my view, hate Real Estate, it appears solid when it is not) the MENA region desperately needs more Liberalism, not less, given the schlerotic regimes and 'regulation' that largely serves as rent extraction.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:14 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

November 23, 2008

Paternalism & Global Crisis, MENA Boom and ... Bust & the Nanny States

FT's Roula Khalaf, has a fine article on Gulf region paternalism, using the Kuwaiti example, on the stresses of the Petrol States as oil pricing collapses with global demand, and their nanny state traditions catch up. In discussion directly, Kuwaitis asking for the Government to prop up the stock markets.

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November 01, 2008

(UPDATE) Starving for Detention: Pro-Saudi-Dissident Hunger Strike

A hunger strike in Saudi Arabia on behalf of Saudi dissidents in custody is set for November 6-7. It is apparently the first such hunger strike in Saudi Arabia, or at least the first publicly known one.

"To the government, we want to say that you can't put prisoners of conscience in jail without facing consequences," said Walid Abu-Alkhair, a writer and lawyer in Jiddah. "And to the activists, we want to say, you are not alone. We want to show that when you put human rights activists in jail, a new wave will come and take their place."

Food for thought, or non-food as the case may be. (UPDATE: full information release/specifics further down below).

Continue reading "(UPDATE) Starving for Detention: Pro-Saudi-Dissident Hunger Strike"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 04, 2008

Gulf: The Wonderful Lightness of Opacity - Corporate Gov

A bit of analysis of zero surprise to anyone who has done business in the area, but worthy of attention the FT's note - "The transparency shortfall" on lack of transparency in the Gulf.

While on one hand more transparency would be good, on the other hand, the real incentives in a liquidity drenched environment is pretty low. Without real incentives, mere pablum about raising more money from foreigners (why bother) isn't going to drive change. Of course in the medium term it's needed, but human nature is short-termist.

Otherwise, a further item of reflexion and debate:

Kuwaiti and Saudi companies, surprisingly, produced the lowest average scores. These longstanding trading cultures boast the region’s largest pools of liquidity, some of its most sophisticated investors and strong regulations.

One of the metrics used by the research is whether a company publishes annual reports in English. About a third of GCC companies do not, but that rises to 60 per cent in Kuwait and 68 per cent in Saudi Arabia – a large factor in their poor performance.

Companies that publish crucial corporate information in Arabic put a swathe of investors at a disadvantage, the researchers argue.

Leaving aside the idea it is "surprising" that Saudiyah and Kuwait are least transparent (certainly doesn't surprise me, what 'trading cultures' has to do with transparency rather escapes me (never mind the dodginess of the characterisation)., the probable debate point here is regarding use of English (by listed companies) in reporting.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 24, 2008

MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?

Moving back MENA-ward, I add a rant inspired by long-time discussions here and elsewhere regarding investment in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. My amateur self keeps reading about Gulf or other money chasing things like real estate or hub port facilities, or digging out more of that Texas tea. Now, I hope I don't use too technical economic terms here, but here goes the rant: shouldn't the bulk of this fund dough, including money from superrich nations, be going towards activities where, you know, MENA regular folks will, like, MAKE NEW STUFF and then SELL THAT NEWLY-MADE STUFF TO OTHER PEOPLE for, um, HARD MONEY. That may sound a bit hi-falutin grad-school airy-fairy idealistic, development economics-y, but it needs to be said.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

July 11, 2008

The USS Liberty: It's back and . . . topically relevant!

The USS Liberty, the American intelligence ship attacked by Israeli naval and air forces in June 1967, is back in the news somewhat, and relevant to the news of the day. This assumes that this story has a true basis. Apparently the subject was raised in a meeting between US and Israeli officials. (For more Aqoul discussion on USS Liberty, go here, wherein I confess my conversion to the more-likely-a-screwup presumption.) Anyway: "According to. . . Haaretz, . . . the Liberty attack was raised in talks regarding Iran, and U.S. operations in the Middle East. . . [It] was agreed . . . that the United States and Israel would want to avoid any sort of 'mistaken confrontation' such as that which occurred when Israeli forces attacked the USS Liberty."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:29 AM | Comments (35) | TrackBack

July 08, 2008

Maghreb-ward, Ho! Gulf investment heads into the sunset

Rudely poaching on turf far better handled by other contributors, I call attention to this article in The National of Abu Dhabi(?) which relates risk/reward considerations of Gulf investment in North Africa, particularly in real estate. Do the observations jibe with reality? Too little fear, too little greed, or too much. Or just right. A good intro for the beginner or just a superficial story? Excerpts below the fold.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:14 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

June 27, 2008

Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble

This Washington Post story nurtures the question: are the recent bubble-like oil price spikes driven by speculative runs on oil or are they driven by a fundamental growth in demand? The supply side, aka Saudi Arabia, claims the first choice and the demand side, aka America and industrialized states, claims the second. My semi-educated wild hunch is that the supply siders' 'explanation (high speculation) is closer to the truth. (UPDATE: Commenter Klaus notes a more recent Krugman column on the same subject arguing that economic fundamentals are primarily driving the price increase.)

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:23 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 22, 2008

Islamic Finance Bubble

A quick note, prompted by a very decent set of audio-visual summaries at FT on Islamic Finance, and a note within the presentation that the Islamic Finance industry has not been effected to date by the global credit crunch (although noting exposure to Gulf Real Estate).

It strikes me that as impressive as the growth has been in the past seven years, it corresponds rather precisely with the big Gulf boom driven by hydrocarbon prices. There is much loose talk of huge new Muslim markets, counting up the global number of Muslims - African, Asian, etc. - as potential market numbers (see the articles here). This, like your average "MENA" but really Gulf Fund, playing with regional numbers to inflate potential is utter bollocks. Much boosterism comes from the Gulf, and more from City bankers with a thin understanding of the variations in the Islamic world and the extent to which poorer markets with more liberal approaches to Islam are going to be genuinely willing to pay a premium for services (or be exposed to more risk - although that is more likely to be disguised). Perhaps worth a further discussion, but it strikes me that Islamic finance growth right now is intimiately and almost uniquely driven by asset inflation in the Gulf, that makes everything look attractive.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:18 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

June 19, 2008

KSA Gives Up Dream of Making the Desert Green

Here’s a very interesting article on the waste that the Saudi adventure of growing its own wheat has been. A few quotes:

“Within 12 years, between 1980 and 1992, wheat production grew 29-fold--from 142,000 tons in 1980 to 4.1 million tons in 1992 --making the Saudi desert the world's sixth-largest wheat exporting country.” “Between 1981 and 1993, Saudi Arabia spent a total of $225 billion out of US$420 billion in total oil revenues on defense and security. (…) Maintaining the ruling family is estimated to have cost $4 billion per annum during the 1980s, and more in later years as the family grew”

“For the sixteen years between 1984 and 2000, it may be estimated that the assessable cost of Saudi agricultural development could be put at about $85 billion, representing 18 percent of the country's $485 billion in revenues from oil exports during the period. This huge investment produced wheat at an average cost of more than US$500 per ton. During the same period, the international market price for wheat averaged about $120 per ton. When the waste resulting from abandoning the newly reclaimed and irrigated lands plus four unquantified government subsidies are added, the cost might more than double.”

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Posted by Shaheen at 12:55 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

June 07, 2008

Pimping Dubai

The ability of Dubai to pimp itself is boundless, although of course sheer greed is useful to get boundless buy in, although if one is smart it would be good to question the fundamental health of the frenzy.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:54 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

May 02, 2008

Funny, She Doesn't Look Bahraini

Bahrain's possible new ambassador to the US has interesting demographics. Not all that amazing if one is familiar with the region outside of stereotypes and post-1948 tensions. Still the background of the former legislator(-tress?), if legislating is what the Shura Council does, might cause some to be unduly surprised.

MANAMA, Bahrain - The only Jewish woman lawmaker in Bahrain is a candidate to become this Persian Gulf kingdom's ambassador to Washington. . . . Huda Nono, a legislator in the Shura Council, said she was among people being considered for the post and referred further queries to the foreign ministry. . . .If Nono was appointed, Bahrain would be the first Arab country to send a high-level Jewish diplomat to Washington. . . . Nono is the first Jewish woman in the Shura Council, a 40-seat body appointed by the king that also has a Christian among its 11 female legislators. . . . Nono replaced her cousin Ibrahim Nono, who held the Shura Council seat for four years.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:33 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 07, 2008

Saudi Arapia? Hib-hob from the Land of the 2Moskz

Over at the Washington Post, Faiza Ambah tells the tale of a Saudi hip-hop crew who dream of stardom and self-expression. Unfortunately, their Saudi parents and kinfolk are not so enamoured of these kids now performing a real-life version -- allowing for musical genre differences -- of the movie Dirty Dancing (whose own star is, incidentally and sadly, fighting for his real life).

But even as they rap in praise of Islam and their mothers, and against the war in Iraq and terrorism, their biggest hurdle has been convincing family, friends and Saudi society that they are not simply trying to imitate a decadent Western lifestyle.

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February 24, 2008

Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism

Worthy of reflexion on larger tensions between economic and political reform in MENA, Bahrain seems to be going through an awkward spot in terms of political and economic reform although it is Bush ibn Bush's Khaliji wunderkind for democratisation. Nothing surprising in this, other than perhaps the qualified support of the opposition (and even that is not terribly astounding as such, given the way publicly expressed opposition generally occurs in Monarchies).

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 03, 2008

Dollars, Gulf Politics & MENA Economies, tip, tiptoeing...

Without extended commentary, I draw attention to The Financial Times report that Qatar is considering breaking the dollar peg, following Kuwait and certainly if it does so putting a nail in the coffin of the original vision of the unified Gulf currency zone.

The report, which if realized, would make Qatar the 2nd after Kuwait to break the strict dollar peg, highlights a feedback between the current American Administration's profligate fiscal policy -itself tied to a frankly delusional foreign policy that has by evident incompetence as well as imperial overreaching damaged credibility generally [never mind the exact politics]- and regional politics and policy. Make no mistake, the dollar peg has long been as much a politic as an economic statement.

Of course taking such a step in an environment like the present is economically rational - above all if one believes that one is entering a period of long term dollar weakness or instability, although a more flexible exchange regime is generically usually a better thing regardless of the specific dollar issues.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:51 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

January 18, 2008

Don't Worry, the French Military is En Garde Duty in the Gulf

France just announced plans to establish a military base in the UAE.

Continue reading "Don't Worry, the French Military is En Garde Duty in the Gulf"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 08:11 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

December 27, 2007

Sindhs of the father: Benazir Bhutto dead thread (open)

Benazir Bhutto, ex-Pakistani prime minister, is now an ex-person. Have at the whole set of issues in this open thread, o dear readers. Others of the Aqoul team may post more detailed entries on this most unpleasant passing of the daughter of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. (BTW, I don't know who those people are who say 'why do Muslims never go out in the streets venting their anger when al-Qaeda or other extremists* do a terrorist act?') Well, clearly, they sometimes do.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:22 PM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

December 11, 2007

Releasing Built-Up Labor Tension

The floodgates have opened. It is the beginning of the end for serious labor repression in the UAE, and the rest of the Gulf is likely to follow. Dubai's employers have been forced to negotiate with (illegally) organized labor and come out second-best.

Organized labor has never had it good in the Gulf. The armies of foreign construction workers - there are 700,000 in the UAE alone - live in overcrowded and unhygienic quarters, work in unsafe conditions, have no political rights, and are banned from collective bargaining. They can't even switch jobs when their employers fail to pay them, as happens all too often. Over the past couple of years, a depreciation in the value of local currencies pegged to the dollar has meant they have been able to send less money home than ever before, rendering many unable to support families they were forced to leave behind, even as high inflation has eaten into their purchasing power in the Gulf. Meanwhile, demand for workers has surged with a building boom brought about by high oil prices.

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December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

Continue reading "NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 08, 2007

Citigroup: "Arab" Capital, Need and Fear

With the good apparent news that , as FT commentator Ferguson put it, World War IV is off as the warmongering Right Bolshies in America have had their arguments castrated, and a moment on the weekend, I think it useful to take an economy moment to reflex slightly on on Citigroup's rescue by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and the effective non-reaction of the usual suspects such as congenital cretin Mr Schumer. Now, the non-reaction somewhat wrong-foots my own commentary two months ago anticipating great hysteria, but perhaps the promise to be "silent" as an FT arty put it placated the professional cretin. Or perhaps rather his handlers in NY understood Citi's shaky state and shaped the reaction, so very different than either his reaction to the investment proposed in Nasdaq or last year (2006) with Dubai Ports World (also at the opening for more explicit Schumerism).

The contrast between in particular the round up of reaction in the Schumerism link and the non-reaction to Citigroup is interesting. Fear of banking collapse and grinding halt to the queer American use of houses as credit cards perhaps partial driving explanations on the political side, but my speciality is not American politics, which I care little about except where it has MENA blow back. Unfortunately given a near decade of utter cretinism on the Americans part in this respect, this is too frequent.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:59 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

December 01, 2007

Spank me, I've been a bad girl

Marjorie, an expatriate blogger in Qatar who often tackles social and religious issues, brought my attention to that country's first survey of violence against women. Not only had nearly two-thirds of women polled been beaten, over two in five believed they deserved it.

Continue reading "Spank me, I've been a bad girl"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 10:41 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

November 24, 2007

Not in my name

This short entry to denounce the recent verdict againt a victim of rape in Saudi Arabia. Ibn Kafka also has an excellent post about this (in French).

Saudi Arabia claims that it applies Islamic law. In doing so, this medieval country is tarnishing - again - my identity as an Arab and as a Muslim.

If you are like me, sick and tired of this Tartuffesque regime, let it be known how much you want it to change. Not to the equally retarded bigots, but to their influential friends.

Posted by Shaheen at 06:09 PM | Comments (30) | TrackBack

November 03, 2007

Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington

I have to borrow from the discussion on the previous thread the quotation below. It's from a book review of at-best mixed value but by someone with the knowledge to make the statement. Tell me its assertion is false. Please, God, please......

Continue reading "Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

October 25, 2007

The Magic Kingdom

Last week, I decided it would be interesting to watch The Kingdom, an action movie that followed four FBI agents sent to Saudi Arabia to investigate a massive attack on an American housing compound. I went not because I expected it to be intellectually stimulating (it wasn't) or because I figured I'd learn useful things from the film (I didn't), but because I wanted to see how Hollywood portrayed Saudi Arabia. Save for the surfeit of British villains, Hollywood is a useful barometer of American perceptions of a particular part of the world; there is a reason so many bad guys were Russians during the Cold War.

Continue reading "The Magic Kingdom"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 11:40 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

October 02, 2007

Victory of Image and Capital: Emirates & Hollywood

Quite frankly while not entirely surprising, the Time Warner - Abu Dhabi Entertainment Hub (or city in Dubai parlance) does not strike me as a match made in heaven.

On one hand the Emirates are sucking in a certain kind of talent, but I have a hard time believing that the cost issues in the Emirates plus the lack of a vibrant real culture, a salon and artists culture as it were, can make this anything but "a 6,000 acre theme park" rather than a space "to produce Arabic-language film, TV and video games" (well maybe video games, although I still imagine doing video game Arabization is likely cheaper to do in say Cairo or even better Amman, although maybe one puts HQ in Abu Dhabi for money raising purposes).

But that the idea is being floated speaks to the problems of getting investment off the ground and also, ahem, doing business in much of the region.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:42 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 13, 2007

Iran War On the Way: More Evidence

It appears that I may have been right to call attention to those saying a war on Iran is being rolled out by the Administration. An informed and expert source in DC affirmed it to me as well a few days back. And it looks like the usual suspect sources are now marketing it. (Love the part where we can mysteriously tell that the Germans really want us to attack even as they back away from sanctions against Iran. Saying "no" when they really mean "yes", those Teutonic teases!) Michael Ledeen appears to be the one whose job is to incite the converted; he who says that al-Qaeda and Iran are interchangeable terms and at one point called Dubai, an "Iranian colony". Man, all them dang camel jockeys are the same and interchangeable, and that thinking is how one manufactures a war. Anyway, Aqoulites and Aqoulite wannabes with Iran-specific knowledge are needed to weigh in, now and in the future.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:19 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

September 09, 2007

Quick Roundup of News on Roundups

{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)

Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)

Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.

And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 07, 2007

Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day

Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."

Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"

In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 04, 2007

Incentives and Accountability in Gulf Labor Markets

If the penalty for shooting someone was a $12 fine, and a warning that repeat offenders might lose access to firearms, what would happen? The murder rate would shoot up. We rely on incentives and disincentives to promote or dissuade against all sorts of things, from charitable giving to compliance with the law.

Continue reading "Incentives and Accountability in Gulf Labor Markets"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 12:15 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

September 02, 2007

Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?

The informed blogosphere and newsosphere are abuzz with rumors* that a US war, or a sustained attack (i.e.war), on Iran is being put out for aggressive marketing by Administration innards this week. Events will prove this true or false. Regardless of the rightness or wrongness of such a thing, if it is being planned, I do wonder if the questions and considerations below have been addressed.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

July 31, 2007

Weapons for Everyone

As you might already have read, the United States has announced a massive arms package covering Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf countries. Guardian columnist Brian Whitaker, a Middle East expert, believes the deal is a bad idea, as it will inflame Sunni-Shia tensions throughout the region. While I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Whitaker, I must respectfully disagree with him and say I consider the deal a good idea overall.

Continue reading "Weapons for Everyone"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:36 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

July 23, 2007

MENA Business, Liquidity, Speculation, Fatwas and Egyptian Belly Dancing

Being bored on the TGV, some time to catch up on comments. In this instance on various MENA economy items that caught my eye in the past month.

So, some quick reactions to the massive amount of liquidity flowing about the region now, and globally, and fatwas on IPOs. Sorry no actual Egyptian dancing as such, but the investment equivalent with Ministry of Finance blithering on.

(edited formatting 23/7/07 18h00 GMT+2)

Continue reading "MENA Business, Liquidity, Speculation, Fatwas and Egyptian Belly Dancing"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:25 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

July 22, 2007

Dubai's New Erection Penetrates Foe China Entry's Position

Why are you looking at me like that? Stop it. The internal structure of the new under-construction Burj Dubai tower has just passed the height of the rival entry in the world's tallest building competition, Taiwan-Republic of China's Taipei 101 tower. The Burj is now 1,667 feet (sorry, I don't do metric). The question: is there any value or significance to such structures? It looks horrible at this stage; is the final version decent? And no. The caption wrote itself. Grow up. (Update: Taipei 101 - I think it's ugly too.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:45 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

June 24, 2007

Foregoing their Commission? Saudi Virtue/Vice Cops on Trial

D'apres this Washington Post story, it seems that the Saudi Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, the morality cops, are on trial. Some of Saudi's finest face charges for brutality, including killing, of suspects detained for, I don't know, flirting, willful shimmying, being within six meters of unbearded non-familial genitals, or whatever it is they arrest folks for. But whatever may be the foibles and popularity of enforcement of extremely conservative mores, there does seem to be a popular line in the sand (MENA stereotype imagery, sorry) being drawn against arbitrariness and in favor of due process. Procedural due process is a good thing in itself. {Note to the over-self-righteous: Of course, (adopting superior cultural tone here), we never have such things here as "vice squads", general alcohol bans, or police killing old ladies in places where consenting informed adults are merely alleged to be consuming or distributing a vice-inducing product.}

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:20 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

May 28, 2007

Sexy Abaya Fashion & Breathless American Journos

While not entirely terrible, the Washington Post arty For Cloaked Saudi Women, Color Is the New Black - indeed in some ways quite an interesting piece on new Abaya fashion - was moderately annoying. I suppose it's from the Saudi-centered vision (of course it is an arty about KSA, but given my experience that much of the non-Islamic world takes KSA as if it were the standard...)

Of course it does raise fond images of sexy Abaya fashion as seen outside KSA. Never mind the baroqueness of Maghrebine Caftans...

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:18 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

April 04, 2007

On Citizenship and Marriage

As the number of foreigners living in the Gulf has increased, so have the number of marriages between Gulf citizens and expatriates. Foreign women who marry Gulf citizens have relatively little legal trouble in these patriarchal societies. But women from the Gulf who marry foreigners find that their husbands cannot acquire their nationality, and that their children are not citizens in the countries where they have been born and raised.

Continue reading "On Citizenship and Marriage"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 08:37 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 13, 2007

Go East Old Man, Go East: Halliburton to Dubai

An interesting article, or rather an article on an interesting development that is difficult to assess. From the FT, entitled Risky Locations, on Halliburton's queer decision to move its CEO to Dubai.

I am, to be frank, puzzled. Comment below (crossposted from The Lounsbury).

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:27 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 03, 2007

Khaleejization: Background Information

The Arab Gulf countries have long relied on foreign labor to keep their economies running. Nationals largely work in cushy government jobs that pay above-market wages and require relatively few hours. This was part of the bargain the royal families struck with their populations- no representation, no taxation. By contrast, private sectors in the Gulf are dominated by expatriates. With the partial exception of certain kinds of managers, the latter are compensated poorly and work long hours.

Continue reading "Khaleejization: Background Information"

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Abu Dhabi Strikes Back

For generations, the rulers of the Arabian peninsula have been rivals. In the past, they vied for the loyalties of the nomadic tribes of the region. Today, their competition centers around their economies. Flush with oil revenues, they have striven to outdo one another in building businesses and cities.

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January 23, 2007

Female Saudi student vs. FrontPageMag jihadist

I would've never thought that I'd ever call my readers' attention toward a piece in FrontPageMag, but hey, if The Eagles can make hell freeze over ...

The interview is from Feb '06 but I don't think it has lost any value. I found it particularly interesting how Moudhy al-Rashid did not let herself be baited by the interviewer's harping on the usual tropes. Certainly her own positions are worthy of debate and she herself stated that she doesn't see them as finalized, but she is certainly representative of a broader group of young women in KSA (and other MENA countries).

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Posted by MSK at 11:34 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

December 22, 2006

Emirati Elections

I'm not sufficiently well-versed in UAE politics as to recognize the names of any of the winners in the recently concluded elections there. I am, however, curious about what country last held a vote for parliament in which fifteen percent of those chosen garnered a two-digit number of votes. Let's hope this is the proverbial footstep that begins a thousand-mile journey.

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December 14, 2006

Attending Holocaust Denial Conference Might Be Career-Limiting

The Tehran conference has drawn widespread condemnation for its roster of infamous attendees and controversial position on the Holocaust. Certainly any academic with half a brain wouldn't be caught dead at one of Ahmedinejad's little soirees, as demonstrated by the brewing intellectual slapfight between Alan Dershowitz and Norman Finkelstein. Using evidence from a neo-nazi website, Dershowitz insinuated that his academic nemesis not only attended, but would fit right in because he "has allied himself closely with the Holocaust denial movement by trivializing the suffering of its victims and denying that many of them were victims at all." Our man Richard Silverstein summarizes the story and casts doubt on Dershowitz's conclusion by noting that a) Finkelstein's own parents narrowly escaped the Holocaust, making denial a bit difficult and b) he was testifying at a federal trial in Chicago during the conference.

The motive behind this accusation is clear: legitimate academics who attend Holocaust conferences with David Duke and his ilk may experience slight credibility loss among peers. Rather like evolutionary biologists presenting papers at a conference of Creationists, I suppose.

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December 04, 2006

A Grand Bargain with Iran?

In 2003, as American troops were moving into Baghdad, Iran offered the United States a grand bargain. The deal offered was simple: Iran would not attempt to procure WMDs, stop supporting terrorism, cooperate in Iraq, and accept a two-state solution for Israel/Palestine, in return for a full normalization of relations with the United States, an end to sanctions, cooperation on technology, and a recognition of Iranian security concerns.

Continue reading "A Grand Bargain with Iran?"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 01:28 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

November 24, 2006

Labor Rights in the UAE: An Update

In the UAE, a new agreement means middlemen are to be cut out of the labor supply chain bringing workers to the country from four countries that serve as major sources of manpower.

If the agreement works, it will go a long way towards bridging the gap between what workers expect when they leave their home countries, and what they actually receive. However, this is a big 'if,' especially given the the number of regulations regarding workers that already exist but remain unenforced. Nevertheless, the agreement would serve the interests of both workers themselves and the companies that hire them. Workers are often cheated by unscrupulous agents into illegally paying large sums of money to secure jobs, and these funds are often secured by pawning the family jewelry or through loansharks charging exorbitant interest rates. When the workers in question find out how much they will actually be paid, they are not happy. All too often, low morale- also caused by poor working conditions- has led to work disruptions, as workers have put down their tools in protest.

Continue reading "Labor Rights in the UAE: An Update"

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November 15, 2006

Al-Jazeera International: Setting the News Agenda?

Fortunate enough to have a stinking cold and be bunged up in front of the TV all day I managed to catch the inaugural day of Al-Jazeera International. Concurrent on Al-Jazeera's Arabic network there was back-patting self-congratulatory coverage and on the English sister network presenters like Riz Khan used their first shows to to take the opportunity to explain what the shows were going to be about, what the remit was, what they hoped to achieve etc.

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Posted by Meph at 04:15 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

November 14, 2006

Rack Your Brains

In a democracy, the media often twists a reasonable statement into a ridiculous soundbite which gets propagated widely, and causes unnecessary defensiveness on the part of the speaker. A far bigger problem, however, is that not enough people challenge the ridiculous claims of speakers in authoritarian countries (or indeed by speakers in the so-called free world about faraway places that their populations know little about).

Continue reading "Rack Your Brains"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 11:41 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

November 13, 2006

Blogging In the Sand: Saudi bloggers profiled

The Washington Post Foreign Service's Faiza Ambah profiles Saudi bloggers. Featured are Fouad al-Farhan, Ahmed al-Omran, and Bandar Raffa, with references to Mystique and others. An organized group of Kingdom bloggers is in formation.

[A] growing wave of young Arabs...have turned to blogging to bypass the restrictions on free expression in a predominantly authoritarian, conservative and Muslim region. Blogging is so novel here that the equivalent term in Arabic, tadween, to chronicle, was coined only this year. But it has spread rapidly among the increasingly urban youth and in the process has loosened the limits of what's open for discussion.

Fuller quote and your (one hopes) informed comments below the break.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 04:05 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

November 12, 2006

Dirty Little Secrets: Labour Exploitation in the UAE

To get away from US centered whanking on, and away from the depressing subjects of Iraq or Palestine, a quick reference to a very timely article in FT on labour exploitation in the UAE .

An open secret of course, if one can say a secret at all.

Continue reading "Dirty Little Secrets: Labour Exploitation in the UAE"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:38 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

October 16, 2006

Tarawih in the Kingdom, Part 2

Today I got the giggles.

We chose a small makeshift mosque that was close by as the big neighbourhood one was too far to walk after a long day and so we made our way to the small one round the corner. It was tiny, barely holding a hundred people and the women's section held barely a third of that number. The moment I walked in and saw that there was a curtain, a CURTAIN, separating the male and female section, all the piety I had managed to muster evaporated as all I could think of was that the billowing curtain might be blown high enough to expose the two worlds. There would be havoc.

As we began to pray an old woman a couple of feet away from me began whispering visciously in my direction. Alarmed slightly I edged away from her but this only seemed to infuriate her further. After a few more ignored hisses, she grabbed me by my cloak and dragged me in one surprisingly firm move towards her. As I staggered in alarm my mother looked at me barely surpressing a laugh and whispered "You were too far away from her, there shouldn't be any gaps between worshippers." This I knew but had never witnessed it so dedicatedly implemented. I managed to regain my composure and keep praying, bemused by the small, bent octogenarian's strength.

Continue reading "Tarawih in the Kingdom, Part 2"

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October 11, 2006

Tash ma Tash: Serious Saudi Satire or Child's Play?

The Tash ma Tash controversy rages on and has been adequately reported in both Arabic and non-Arabic media as well as on the blog of our own Lounsbury. However, apart from the obvious religious knee-jerk reaction that has sadly come to be expected when the world is dealing with something apart from sombre doom and gloom of the Wahhabi institution, there have been some interesting and disturbing reactions that reflect some entrenched attitudes towards free speech and criticism.

The attitude towards comedic parody laced with political observation differs widely. In Egypt for example, despite the long-standing heritage of presidential domination and totalitarianism, political satires, most prominently Mohammed Subhi's "Mama America", get away with a lot and resonate with the concerns of the Egyptian public. The Egyptian actor Adil Imam's "Al-Irhabi" (The Terrorist) in the 90's was one of the first indigenous Arabic works to tackle and put a human face on the phenomenon of homegrown terrorism and Syria's Duraid Lahham has a long history of political satire, the play "Ka'sak, ya Watan" ("Cheers, o homeland") being one of the most moving works deriding the weakness of the Arab states in confronting Israel, where hope in a bright Arab future is metaphorically killed off in the death of Dureid's new-born baby Ahlam (= dreams).

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October 09, 2006

Tarawih in the Kingdom

I stepped into the women's section of the neighbourhood mosque, my mother by my side and the imam's quranic recitations booming in my ears. The praying area was on the upper floor of the mosque, ornate, sweet-smelling and half full by the time we got there. The imam had already finished isha'a prayer and started on tarawih so we quickly joined the last line and started praying under the brilliant chandelier and, thankfully, an air conditioning vent.

One thing that has always moved me is the reverberation of the congregation as they say "Amen" after the end of a quranic verse. As women are not allowed to raise their voices in prayer if men are in earshot, the rising chant after each verse is a deep rich tenor. These moments always affirmed - as far as I was concerned - the virtues of group prayer and the significance of communal religion. A lone worshipper believing more in a personal spiritual relationship with one's Maker, I am not a fan of mosque prayer but taken with the spirit of Ramadan and not wishing my mother to go on her own, I found myself smiling at the familiar "Amen" that emanated from the (not overlooked) male congregation below.

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October 06, 2006

Dubai, the Attraction

A quick note to draw attention to a recent arty by Roula Khalaf of FT on Dubai and the why behind its success to date: Dubai cultivates oasis of calm where Arab business life can flourish.

The main thrust of the article is to highlight some of the why behind Dubai's success to date, beyond just stupid amounts of capital. Although that is a clear major condition, it is not a sufficient one as the other petro-giants of the region never managed to achieve Dubai's success (even if we mitigate our appreciation of the success by noting a definately unsustainable aspect doped by too much liquidity chasing too few quality assets).

Despite my own critical attitude towards Dubai - much is clearly illusion and can not survive, there are also clear lessons with respect to the ability of the Arab/MENA region entreprenurial classes actually being able to flourish when a moderately liberal (quite liberal for the off-shore aspects) business environment is established. I do note that some of - indeed in some ways much of Dubai's liberalism is rather Potemkin liberalism insofar as it is all of a very temporary, Enlightened Despot Suffrage quality. That being said, if one takes Dubai with a grain of salt, it does illustrate via its off-shore business services sector the degree to which Arabo-Muslim entrepreneurship is seeking a place to flourish away from the dead hand of the state, and the degree to which even in the temporary, Prince-dependent liberalism of Dubai seems vastly attractive in a world where the West is growing stupidly more hostile to Arabo-Islamic money.

Continue reading "Dubai, the Attraction"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 01, 2006

UAE to hold polls in December

The UAE has announced dates for its first-ever polls. While the elections will do little to alter the balance of power in the country- the voters have been chosen by the rulers of the country's seven constituent emirates, and will only elect half the members of a purely consultative body- this still marks an important step towards increasing political participation.

Continue reading "UAE to hold polls in December"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 10:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 20, 2006

Racism? What racism?

Allow me to bring your attention to a particularly poorly written piece of UAE agitprop. The UAE is quite heavily segregated socially - people of different national and ethnic origins tend not to mix together except for business. This has been exacerbated greatly by some rather flagrant racism.

I am not sure what legal sanctions exist regarding discrimination, but it is clear that if these exist, they aren't ever enforced. Housing ads can thus ask for Keralite Muslim bachelors, and job ads for Tagalog-speaking candidates only to apply for positions where these language skills are unnecessary, while nightclubs often turn away non-white people at the door on flimsy grounds. Pay scales differ wildly depending on one's skin color, as does how one is treated by all sorts of people one encounters, ranging from shopkeepers to immigration staff.

There has lately been some very slight movement towards recognizing this and doing something about it. Until now, that is.

Continue reading "Racism? What racism?"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 11:11 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

September 11, 2006

Yemeni Cricket? Upcoming Elections

Oh I wish I was in the land of khat and old times there were not forgotten, but I've never been there so I can't say there were old times. But for those to whom it matters, it appears that there are elections looming in the southland. September 20, 2006, to be precise. Will they be meaningful? And will they be cricket? This list suggests that the spirit of Lyndon Johnson may have had a hand in the voter registration process. UPDATE: 50 reported dead at election rally.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:46 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 06, 2006

In the UAE, even poor people are rich

As long as they are Emirati of course:

Dubai: The municipality has finalised designs for 10 residential complexes which will cater to low-income UAE nationals.

...

Abdul Rahman Sifai, Director of the Government Housing Department at the municipality, said it was the first time that apartment blocks were to be built for nationals.

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Posted by dubaiwalla at 05:31 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 31, 2006

The Economic Side of the Lebanon War

A bit back on my sub-blog I shared some musings on the economic impact of the conflict, which perhaps should be highlighted as the dogs of war are clearly out of the control of their master, and as dogs are wont to do, rather running amok against their own interests.

Some thoughts then on the impact of war regionally, from an economic perspective, and related thoughts on where the various markets may head. Very much seat of the pants by the way, and not profound.

Continue reading "The Economic Side of the Lebanon War"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:44 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

July 07, 2006

How Islamic credit works

From Adventures In Dubai, a practical example of modern Islamic finance:

Continue reading "How Islamic credit works"

Posted by secretdubai at 06:04 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

June 14, 2006

More Football

It would be very easy to watch the match between Saudi Arabia and Tunisia, the only two Arab teams in the World Cup, and to essentialize based on it. To begin with, no one in the Saudi squad plays for a foreign club - the players do rather well for themselves in their domestic league, which has low standards. The European teams have always been streets ahead of the Arab ones, and even the Sub-Saharan African teams have come impressively far, while the Arabs have lagged behind. Indeed, one would be surprised if the analogy didn't extend to loads of people secretly (or not-so-secretly) hoping the Americans would fail miserably.

Continue reading "More Football"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 12:51 PM | Comments (29) | TrackBack

June 06, 2006

Corner on Niqab: Saudi Women Face Off on Veiling

(The title pun was nearly "Sartorial Spleen Tour", so don't complain) Faiza Ambah, a few days back in the Washington Post, provided a profile of Saudi women, including professionals, who are emphatic in their preference for the unusually high restrictiveness -- even by conservative Muslim standards -- in the dress code mandated in their country.

UPDATE (6/10): Jennifer on Henley's blog has some related thoughts ("Modest Invisibility") on an overlapping subject, inspired by devout Egyptian woman Magda Amer's explanations of women's clothing choice and standards.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:09 AM | Comments (48) | TrackBack

June 04, 2006

Saudi Cyber-Vigilantes effect first Saudi blog ban

In MENA, blogs are increasingly becoming part of the political sphere. Blogs serve as conduits for information and debate and link people from various regions who are interested in a certain topic. In recent times, bloggers have increasingly been vocal in politics as well and regional governments have responded - as exemplified in the cases of the two Egyptian bloggers Karim and Alaa. In Saudi Arabia, however, bloggers do not have to fear the government but rather a self-styled "official" blogger group that appears to aim for the "ethical cleansing" of the Saudi blogosphere.

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June 01, 2006

Rambling Thoughts on Public Space, Community, and Culture in Dubai

Dubai has long been the commercial capital of the Gulf. But much as it would like to pretend otherwise, most of what little culture it contains has been imported, and anything that looks historical only does so by virtue of a good façade. The rulers have always focused first and foremost on attracting business, and have been rather successful at this; most of the city's population has moved there from somewhere else for money. It thus differs in many ways from its next door neighbor Sharjah, whose ruler has put far more of an emphasis on retaining traditional and Islamic values, and where there is a 'decency code' and a prohibition on all alcohol.

Continue reading "Rambling Thoughts on Public Space, Community, and Culture in Dubai"

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May 29, 2006

Democracy in the UAE

Just over a year ago, Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum, then the crown prince of Dubai and UAE’s defense minister, and now the UAE’s vice president, prime minister and defense minister of the UAE, and ruler of Dubai, said:

I say to my fellow Arabs in charge: If you do not change, you will be changed… If you do not initiate radical changes, responsibly discharge your duties and uphold the principles of truth, justice and responsibility, your people will resent you. More than this, the verdict of history on you will be severe.

Continue reading "Democracy in the UAE"

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May 24, 2006

Iran & The Faux Law, Backtracking

The infamous Jews and Xians have to wear special clothes fiasco has now seen a full retraction, although for those looking for reasons to bash something, our dear Saudi cretins appear to be still in the business of producing hateful rubbish in the service of the Wahhabi hate mongers who so dearly love to dress themselves up in more-Muslim-than-thou clothing.

In other matters, Hirsi Ali - Magan has taken her US media campaign to a new level with a fine NYT piece of puffery about the poor oppressed media darling. Or as the phrase in the arty goes, "her daring approach to Islam, her arranged marriage in Africa, her exotic beauty." Sexy it is, Sexy.

A fair comment, however, from the arty goes:

"She irritates me deeply with her one-sided view of Islam," said Jan Beerenhout, a former Amsterdam municipal official and a convert to Islam. "But I feel ambiguous. She was offensive to the Muslims from rural areas who practice an archaic form of the religion. But if she had not spoken out, many wrongs would have remained taboo."

Certainly it does appear to the causal observer such as myself that Dutch society and social commentary suffers from a bit of constipation in re the Muslim minority - my impression is of little balanced convos, but rather black and white. Could be wrong, of course, relying on second hand knowledge.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:15 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

May 23, 2006

Dubai Glitter - Union troubles

While not having much substantive to add, I thought that before this aged too much, that some attention should be brought to a recent FT article on on unions, entitled "Union troubles start to emerge from Dubai's glittering facades' published 19 May.

The article covers material that we here at Aqoul have touched upon, effectively the signs that the impoverished sub Con workers who make up the spine of the vast construction site that is Dubai are finally starting to crack under the pressure of low wages, rising costs, and just plain near slavery conditions.

The article bears a quick reading, as well as pondering whether UAE aspirations (to US FTA, to other goodies) will force change. I would bet that the government takes a bail out angle. After all, among the drivers of the last few weeks of unrest has been that labourers have been crushed between escalating housing and general living costs, and low wages.

An obvious Dubai type solution is to have the Emirate provide mass worker housing somewhere, allowing companies to externalise housing costs (or continue to do so to be more accurate).

Part of the usual indirect and obscure subsidy approach the Emirates have grown to love. Might even be an efficient solution.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

May 20, 2006

Islamic Finance - Scholar Shortages

Some weeks ago one of your fine 'Aqoul authors raised the issue of Islamic finance, and its present situation.

While perhaps less sexy than the faux-reports of Iranian Nazi-esque clothing restrictions on minorities, understanding a bit about economic developments in the region is more useful to readers wanting to actually have a sense of MENA developments (as opposed to merely whanking on in general ignorance about the horrors of the Arab world, etc), and The Financial Times has been running quite a number of interesting articles on the region - well actually about the Gulf, but the confusion of Gulf with all of MENA/Arab world is so general I almost cannot complain.

Continue reading "Islamic Finance - Scholar Shortages"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:31 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

May 16, 2006

Census and Sensitivities: UAE & Its Minorities

Towards the end of last year, the UAE carried out its first census in 10 years. Given both the rapid demographic changes here and the promises to share the (usually classified) general data collected with the public, things sounded promising- the information gathered would be invaluable to any number of people. As my colleague SecretDubai has documented, things didn't turn out exactly as planned, not least because those being counted feared the enumerators might report them for any number of offenses ranging from cohabitation to various kinds of illegal occupancy, despite government promises to the contrary.

Continue reading "Census and Sensitivities: UAE & Its Minorities"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 12:46 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

May 13, 2006

Testing times

The news that Dubai is considering screening tourists for AIDS (or rather the HIV virus) is unlikely to help the emirate's campaign to market itself as an open and tolerant society:

It’s not clear how the tests would work, but anyone found to have the virus would be refused admission to the country, said Lieutenant Colonel Mohammad Al Mur, director of the human rights department at Dubai police.

Clearly it would be an unworkable policy: unless such information - god forbid - was contained in biometric passports, there is no practical way that immigration officials could test all visitors quickly and efficiently, let alone accurately.

The impact it would have on tourism would be catastrophic: "Fly to five-star luxury and sunshine in glorious Dubai! (If you don't mind being detained for 48-hours in the airport quarantine hotel while we verify your blood)" is a far from inviting slogan.

Continue reading "Testing times"

Posted by secretdubai at 07:23 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

May 11, 2006

Dubai: Economic Cannibalisation?

FT's William Wallace - a reporter working from Cairo who I am coming to look forward to - has an interesting article on Dubai, Building ambition raises Middle East financial stakes, that merits a read by those of us who follow the place.

The shortest version, speculation that the Dubai model of free zones and specialised development "cities" is reaching the end of its logic with its proliferation in Dubai and copying of the concept among on the part of neighbours, as in Qatar. I beleive there is something to this, the issue of diminishing returns off of the strategy.

Continue reading "Dubai: Economic Cannibalisation?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

May 04, 2006

Banking Services in KSA: A Rant - Part II

[See Women's Banking Services in KSA: A Rant - Part I]

I walked out, made my way round the corner and through the glass automatic doors of the men's banking halls upon which about one hundred employees, customers and floor staff looked up and fell silent.

At this early stage I should mention that the banking sector in Saudi Arabia has been subjected to the most comprehensive Saudisation process where only a few employees, and those only in the higher more strategic echelons, are non-Saudi. Since I had walked into a run of the mill retail branch, every single man who was looking at me was Saudi and in full white thobe and head dress, a daunting sight for any female.

Continue reading "Banking Services in KSA: A Rant - Part II"

Posted by bint ash-shaitan at 05:06 PM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

April 30, 2006

Shadid on Dubai

Anthony Shadid continues to do first-rate journalism for the Washington Post. This Sunday's article is a comprehensive, warts-and-all look at Dubai & its boom. It's well worth reading in its entirety, covering the boom atmosphere, the mad internationalism of the scene, and the disquiet with which these changes have been greeted by many Emiratis. (One thing he doesn't cover is the continued pervasive sexism of the criminal code, as documented by Secret Dubai on many occasions.)

But I'd like to focus on his section on the Asian migrant workers. Shadid gives a quick summary of the overall situation, including the recent labor unrest at the Burj Dubai, and then interviews a couple Bangladeshi migrants. The key to the whole issue as I see it resides in this quote from one of them:

"We're here to earn money, not for happiness," Amin said. "No one comes to this country for happiness."

Continue reading "Shadid on Dubai"

Posted by tomscud at 05:58 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

April 22, 2006

Peace in our time?

Let us hope this means an end to talk of airstrikes and invasions. I do not much care for the idea of being caught up in the Gulf's fourth shooting war since 1980.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 02:58 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

Waiting for Good Doha: Qatar - Dubai = Soul?

Wall Street Journal Reporter Yasmine El-Rashidi cellphoned this comment within the past few weeks to Christopher Lydon's Open Source:

I think Qatar will eventually — quietly — rise above Dubai. . . . Qatar’s growth is more startling than Dubai’s. In terms of the “material” offerings . . . it has everything Dubai has but not branded as the biggest and best in the same way. The difference between Doha and Dubai is soul. Doha’s Emir is a visionary in his own right, [he has] taken gas wealth and created self-sustaining industries, . . . [and] with it created hubs of culture in the region — the Qatar Islamic Museum . . . [is] exceptional. The Doha Debates . . . take place out of Doha’s Education City, which is evolving into a regional center. . . .

Not having been to both, I defer to learned Aqoul Gulfologists to evaluate. I also leave it to our cunning linguists to decide if Qatar is best pronounced Gudder, or Cutter, or Catarrh, or Guitar, etc.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:26 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

April 06, 2006

Labour Rights in the Gulf

For decades now, the Gulf countries have built themselves up using a combination of abundant capital and cheap labour. Owing to their relatively small population bases and large oil revenues, importing workers from poor neighboring countries has been easy. Since the 1960s, each decade has seen a large rise in the numbers of expatriates in the Gulf. Proportions vary between the various countries, but the numbers are highest in the UAE, where non-citizens account for some 85% of the population and over 90% of the workforce (including 98% of the private sector).

Continue reading "Labour Rights in the Gulf"

Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 12:42 AM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

March 19, 2006

Women's Banking Services in KSA: A Rant

Due to a prolonged absence from the Kingdom of Saud my bank account (hosted in a financial institution the child of an agreement between Saudi Arabia and what was an infidel country last time I last looked) was frozen as no transactions had been conducted in over a year. Getting it unfrozen I assumed would be a straightforward enough matter as I made my way to the women's branch. Upon entering a small marble floored hall I beheld two female employees seated in workstations each side of an idoor floral plant arrangement and about a dozen other female clients seated atop plush leather furniture each apparently suffering from some degree of exasperation. I took a seat while trying to fathom what system of queueing was in use. As one client emerged from one office and another waiting sprung to her feet and darted in behind her, I surmised it was every woman for herself.

Continue reading "Women's Banking Services in KSA: A Rant"

Posted by bint ash-shaitan at 10:15 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

March 10, 2006

DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back

I shall make this briefish note as the DPW fiasco continues to steam ahead. In many ways this is good for me personally as I expect increased in-region / non-US flows for MENA money. But it is bad for investment in the US, bad for US MENA policy and reveals as clearly as clear can be the deep vein of anti-Arab bigotry hiding beneath the surface in the United States. A loss for moderation, a loss for state security interests and a loss for economic efficiency and investment in key assets. Yes, bravo to ignorant know-nothing racist jingoism. This blows back not only to commerce, but also to our pious middle conversation, make no mistake about it.

Continue reading "DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:35 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

March 09, 2006

Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia

Well, the irrational forces of bigotted know-nothing nativism and bigotted Islamophobia won out, DPW has finally said fuck it, keep poorly run ports, we'll take the profitable parts of P&O , or as the statement went,

“Because of the strong relationship between the United Arab Emirates and the US, and to preserve that relationship...DP World will transfer fully the US operation of P&O Ports North America Inc to a United States entity,” Edward Bilkey, the company’s chief operating officer, said in a statement.

Only yesterday the head, Mr Sharaf,

acknowledged ... that the US facilities were a small part of the deal and less profitable than other P&O container terminals. His remarks came as the White House appeared to soften its support for the deal and the House of Representatives pressed ahead with plans to block the transaction.

It is also of note that private equity groups, smelling blood in the water,

have approached DP World about buying the US operations, people familiar with the matter said. Industry observers said logical candidates included Blackstone and Macquarie, the Australian bank.

Well, mark one of up for the forces of blind bigotry and irrational anti-Arab xenophobia with all the dark hand waving about "connexions" and "associations" and the utter inability to distinguish between Saudiyah and the rest of the Arab world.

Continue reading "Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:08 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

March 06, 2006

Strong words in Saudi

A startlingly strongly-worded editorial in the Saudi English-language newspaper Arab News, criticising the muttawa after various embarrassing disturbances at the recent Riyadh Book Fair:

"This can’t be good, especially in such a gathering. In this time and place, when the whole country is moving toward modernity, globalization, democracy and reforms, we still have people going around with sticks and unquestionable authority to enforce their narrow view of the world. They only represent a minority of the Muslim world but behave as though there is no Islam but theirs."

Link via the Religious Policeman, who comments:

"...maybe the press are just starting to mount a campaign against the Muttawa. Someone in very high places will have sanctioned the Riyadh International Book Fair, and they may be less than amused at the antics of Brother Naif's Muttawa. So perhaps they authorized this article in the "Arab News"."

The RP is watching "with bated breath". He is not the only one.

Posted by secretdubai at 03:54 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

March 05, 2006

Dubai: Some Background

For those members of our readership who hadn't come across Dubai before the P&O deal hit the headlines, here is some basic information about the city.

If you were to arrive in Dubai and look at all the glass and concrete buildings, you might easily believe yourself at first to be in a medium-to-large American city. This is not true – the city runs along rather different lines from any in the West, and similarities are often only superficial. However, there is one important way in which Dubai resembles the United States: the business of Dubai is business.

Continue reading "Dubai: Some Background"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 10:43 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)

Sadly my work is distracting me from the fun of the ongoing Bigotted Know Nothing Nativist Ignoramus Mob Madness surrounding DPW's takeover of UK's P&O and the incidental acquisition of the operating leases for port operations at six major US ports (although in the UK and globally sanity has prevailed*), I wanted to augment my dear friend and colleague, Secret Dubai's post on Israeli support for Dubai and DPW with specific reference to the Israeli shipping line Zim's statement of support; I should say it comes as no surprise to anyone with experience in the region that some Israelis would step forward on this, even in a politically delicate situation - not so oddly it is the moderates on all sides trying to do business that know each other.

Continue reading "Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:57 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 28, 2006

Pre-stomped idiocy: Iran's Oil Bourse

The vast threat to the dollar of euro-denominated oil sales has been a sub-theme of some of the less reality-based discussion on the Left of the "true" causes of the Iraq war.

Now it's coming up again, but this time related to Iran's "oil bourse". John Pilger is apparently responsible for the latest round of hype:

Blair knows this. He also knows the real reasons for an attack and the part Britain is likely to play. Next month, Iran is scheduled to shift its petrodollars into a euro-based bourse. The effect on the value of the dollar will be significant, if not, in the long term, disastrous. At present the dollar is, on paper, a worthless currency bearing the burden of a national debt exceeding $8 trillion and a trade deficit of more than $600 billion. The cost of the Iraq adventure alone, according to the Nobel Prizewinning economist Joseph Stiglitz, could be $2 trillion. America's military empire, with its wars and 700-plus bases and limitless intrigues, is funded by creditors in Asia, principally China.

Fortunately, saner heads have already gotten to the question. I will refer all readers to Daily Kos contributor extraordinaire Jerome a Paris: Let me kill off once and for all the Iranian oil bourse story.

Continue reading "Pre-stomped idiocy: Iran's Oil Bourse"

Posted by tomscud at 08:58 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 17, 2006

MENA Investment & FDI: Oh my, they control our ports (Updated: Dubai & US Ports)

Foreign direct investment often provokes among the less than economically literate frightened reactions about loss of control - sometimes justified but in general, not. That politicians exploit tribal fears of foreigners controlling the jewels of the nation (whichever nation) is perhaps not surprising. It is always depressing. As we pass through a small storm of Islamic versus Western tensions, it is not surprising that the forces of unreason, emotive fear sweeping MENA, etc. have had an influence.

[Update: related post chez my Lounsbury den of iniquity, with respect to blog commentary and xenophobia, a small obs and question posed.]

[Update II: My coyness aside, a discussion of the Dubai Port World - US Ports issue broke at at the above commentary linked at Lounsbury - after some obligatory beating of a sensless commentator sensless.]

Continue reading "MENA Investment & FDI: Oh my, they control our ports (Updated: Dubai & US Ports)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:56 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 04, 2006

Upon Leaving Foreign Climes, Gulf Hospitality and Sabotaged Reunions

Travelling to Saudi Arabia is always, to put it euphemistically, a rich experience. Travelling to Saudi Arabia from a Western European country as an unmarried fatherless Muslim female (on a direct flight that leaves no time for a merciful hiatus in a half-way house such as Bahrain or Qatar) feels like being beamed up by Scotty.

The trauma starts early, before leaving the faceless European airport. Travellers to Saudi Arabia are easily distingushable from other holiday makers and business travellers. They have that haggard look of the condemned about them, the look of the drowning man coming up for one last gasp of air before his frantic splashes subside. Saudi matriarchs sit apathetically as their children explore the terminal followed by even more apathetic Asian maids. Arab expat families and couples carrying their Harrods and Selfridges bags tour the duty free area refusing to sit down to roll over and die as the generic Lebanese looking woman circles the terminal in her high heels mindful of the fact that this is her last public performance for some time. Expat white workers are the most desperate of all as they sit in airport bars quickly and deliberately downing rounds of drinks, each one a different concoction. One doesn't know if this is to lull themselves into a stupor to soften the blow or if this is just a binge before the fast.

Continue reading "Upon Leaving Foreign Climes, Gulf Hospitality and Sabotaged Reunions"

Posted by bint ash-shaitan at 10:17 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

February 01, 2006

Foreign Workers and Labour Rights in the Gulf

Last year I attended a Sunni-Shia wedding for an old friend of mine (this is an entry on its own, but for another time). It was a truly international affair with guests from North America, Europe, the Mideast, Africa and Asia. One of bride’s relatives flew in from the UAE with her husband, two young children and two nannies in tow. One nanny for each child of course: a young south Indian man for the boy and a Filipino woman for the girl. Both children were absolutely insufferable and threw tantrums constantly, only to be whisked out of sight or amused in a desperate fashion by their respective nannies until they settled down. After a time I began to suspect the boy was developmentally delayed (this is not simply because he was supremely irritating, there were clearly speech issues), but it seemed as though neither parent had noticed. His nanny, barely literate and sweet-natured, was tasked mainly with keeping the child happy, clean and well-fed. He clearly did not have the authority to discipline, a fact that the boy realized and used to his advantage. The girl was somewhat quieter, but the dynamic with her nanny was largely the same. Both nannies were subjected to verbal and physical abuse by their tiny and tyrannical charges, but they bore it gamely, if at times wearily. The parents, while not overtly classist/racist, were still very condescending when interacting with "the help". Naturally, their children noticed and imitated this behaviour.

Continue reading "Foreign Workers and Labour Rights in the Gulf"

Posted by eerie at 09:35 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

January 20, 2006

Media, Business & Problems

Our Dear Father of Aardvarks has an interesting posty on al Jazeerah's market position and some recent claims that al Arabiyah is beating it out that has interest from both commercial and socio-political points of view.

Continue reading "Media, Business & Problems"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 12, 2006

100 Dead in Mecca Haj, Maybe Many More [Updated 12 Jan, 2006: 345 plus dead]

Sad to hear of the unnecessary deaths of worshippers at the Haj in Mecca by a crowd crush, apparently. Reports indicate first figures of 100 dead may be exceeded by a factor of 3 or more.

At this point, we can ask: shouldn't the authorities be ready for this risk? This type of thing has happened, what, three times now? It is understandable that the growth of transportation in modern times may have made the city unprepared at certain stages for larger crowds, but this is not some economically deprived area, unable to create infrastructure or employ crowd specialists?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:00 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

January 11, 2006

Free Trade? Oh, man! -- Event in D.C. on US-Oman Agreement

The US-Omani Free Trade agreement is the subject of this (free attendance!) meeting in Washington DC at the CATO Institute Wednesday January 18 at noon, followed by a (free!) lunch, for those Western Hemispheroids who are interested. I, if able to be there, or other readers, may pass along (free!) questions/comments volunteered. Speakers on (free!) trade include:

Maqbool Ali Sultan, Minister of Commerce and Industry of Oman
Salem Ben Nasser Al Ismaily, Omani Center for Investment Promotion and Export Development
Fred McMahon, Centre for Globalization Studies, Fraser Institute

Subject: "Advancing Economic Freedom in the Middle East, The U.S.-Omani Free-Trade Agreement"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

January 05, 2006

Mecca: Saudi Building Codes

A horrible illustration of what corruption does for you: a Haj hostel collapses killing at least dozens.

Now not that old buildings don't collapse from time to time, but corruption in KSA clearly is a reason for this (and the constant problems KSA has with the Hajj and fatal accidents tied to poor infrastructure, although to be fair to the Saudis - why escapes me at the moment - one has to acknowledge that many moujahiroun on Hajj have no clue as to how to behave in urban circumstances).

Continue reading "Mecca: Saudi Building Codes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:25 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

January 03, 2006

Plus ca change

From Dubai (1976) - Robin Moore:

"He couldn't help but feel, after ten years' service in such Arab countries as Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, and the Gulf States (he was always careful to think and say Arabian Gulf, not Persian Gulf, in Arab countries), that there was a very legtimate Arab point of view on the Middle East conflict between Arab and Jew. It was his observation that American diplomacy was weighted in favour of Israel and that the Arab outlook was either distorted in the American press or in American thinking, or it was ignored. He had seen all sides of the question in intimate, close-up detail. He had learned to speak Arabic well and Hebrew passably and he understood the grievances on both sides equally. And he still thought the Arab world, which to date had made little effective protest within the American power structure, was getting the splintered end of the stick."

Posted by secretdubai at 10:24 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 24, 2005

The bubble bursteth?

A Christmas crash for soaring sandland stocks:

Retailers dump UAE stocks
Posted: Friday, December 23, 2005

Dubai: Retail investors put the skids under UAE shares and drove the Dubai market perilously close to the 1.000 point level that analysts say could trigger an institutional sell-off.

The Dubai index, which has fallen steadily since hitting a record high on November 9, closed 4.79 per cent lower at 1,003.72 points. The Abu Dhabi index finished 3.03 per cent down at 4,984.21 points.

Brokers said retail investors were behind most of the selling.

'There is real fear among the small, day traders. This is a clear sign that sentiment has turned,' said Mohammed Yassin of Emirates Capital Corporation.

In Dubai more than 78 million shares traded hands, just above the daily average for a week that has generally seen moderate volumes. The focus next week will be whether the market can keep the index above the key support level of 1000.

'If the index falls below that level then some institutions will have to start selling. I don't expect panic but there will be a gradual sell-off, which could exacerbate the correction,' said one fund manager. [Reuters]

Posted by secretdubai at 04:28 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

The bubble bursteth?

A Christmas crash for soaring sandland stocks:

Retailers dump UAE stocks
Posted: Friday, December 23, 2005

Dubai: Retail investors put the skids under UAE shares and drove the Dubai market perilously close to the 1.000 point level that analysts say could trigger an institutional sell-off.

The Dubai index, which has fallen steadily since hitting a record high on November 9, closed 4.79 per cent lower at 1,003.72 points. The Abu Dhabi index finished 3.03 per cent down at 4,984.21 points.

Brokers said retail investors were behind most of the selling.

'There is real fear among the small, day traders. This is a clear sign that sentiment has turned,' said Mohammed Yassin of Emirates Capital Corporation.

In Dubai more than 78 million shares traded hands, just above the daily average for a week that has generally seen moderate volumes. The focus next week will be whether the market can keep the index above the key support level of 1000.

'If the index falls below that level then some institutions will have to start selling. I don't expect panic but there will be a gradual sell-off, which could exacerbate the correction,' said one fund manager. [Reuters]

Posted by secretdubai at 04:28 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

December 23, 2005

Skeletons aren't the only things in closets here

The least bad local paper ran two stories alongside one another yesterday, each ostensibly about Elton John's marriage to (well, civil partnership with) David Furnish. What I found interesting was the way the first and second stories differed.

The first, which was longer and given the top of the page, exclusively quoted people who opposed gay marriages. The people who were quoted could reliably be expected to take a particular line- two were figures from local churches and two more were prominent UAE academics, (unfortunately but predictably) including one who wants to register the UAE's first independent human rights organization. That fact was notable by its absence from this article.

The second article was somewhere between neutral and pro-gay marriage. The only national quoted opposed gay marriage in his own backyard. The last names of people who are quoted do not appear in the article; neither do their places of work (contrast with other article). Also note the phrase "gives a stuff" in this 'family' newspaper. But what grabbed my attention was the first line:

For the rest of Dubai Elton John's wedding is a minor event. But for one shadowy and little-understood minority of Dubaians, it is a very special day.

The author simply cannot explicitly acknowledge that there actually are gay people here. Whenever anyone is caught for 'immoral activities,' the media always describes them as some sort of freaks whose acts are alien to all that the local culture stands for, but a tiny aberration in an otherwise moral country. I suspect it is going to be a fair while before that changes.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 08:58 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 18, 2005

Yemen, Democracy and Stupidity

U.S. Ideals Meet Reality in Yemen
By David Finkel
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, December 18, 2005; A01

An interesting if excessively personalised article on the ludicrous Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) initiative and other US Gov "democratisation" efforts in the MENA region.

Continue reading "Yemen, Democracy and Stupidity"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:53 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

December 07, 2005

The Saudi Women's Driving Protest: 15 Years Later

Faiza Ambah writes in the Christian Science Monitor on the 15 years that have elapsed since a dramatic protest by some Saudi women over their lack of driving rights.

Just to be a curmudgeon, I note this passage: "But the opposition to driving often comes from women themselves. A group of some 500 women, including university professors, doctors, journalists, and teachers, sent a petition to King Abdullah in July saying they wanted things to stay the way they were."

Continue reading "The Saudi Women's Driving Protest: 15 Years Later"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:06 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

November 29, 2005

Sex!

Because let's face it, it's the entries with sex that seem to attract the most attention.

First, the scary. The UAE is planning hormone treatment for gay men.

Next, a somewhat amusing story about marriage in Saudi Arabia.

And finally, the story of a stupid fake pimp in Bahrain. Note how people from other Gulf states visit Bahrain- much as they do Dubai- for leisure activities that would not be tolerated at home.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 11:09 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

November 23, 2005

Sharia Products: Market grows for Muslim investors

Laying in bed mildly delusional from anti-haemorrhagatic drugs and other items, I thought I might indulge myself in a reflexion on an interesting arty from The Financial Times on Islamic Finance and products.

The arty in question Market grows for Muslim investors covers some interesting territory even if it is a bit general.

As I can not think of a better time to indulge in commentary on sharia products than when slightly delusional from from anti-haemorrhagatic drugs, what follows are some comments on the text itself:

Continue reading "Sharia Products: Market grows for Muslim investors"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:09 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

October 28, 2005

Ahmadinejad and Israel

What's going on in Iran? First the country's president calls for Israel to be "wiped off the map." Naturally, this doesn't go down well at all internationally, with the Israelis going so far as to call for Iran's expulsion from the UN. So Iran's Moscow embassy issues a statement saying the president didn't mean to "speak up in such sharp terms," and we are reminded that such statements are made all the time during rallies but don't really mean anything.

So the new president made a stupid diplomatic error, not realizing his new position makes his words carry more weight. And after his country's ambassadors are summoned to various European capitals to explain their government's actions, all this will die down, right? So then why is Iran stupidly upping the ante by ordering its diplomats in Western countries to launch protests there against Europe's attitudes towards 'Zionist crimes'? My own take is that Iran's foreign policy, more or less directionless since Ahmadinejad came to power a few months ago, is starting to go down the tubes.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:18 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

October 22, 2005

"Not the kind of state the coalition had hoped to create"

Prospect magazine has a very interesting article by Rory Stewart, a former governing deputy for the UK in two southern Iraqi provinces. He discusses in considerable detail the different Shi'ite political parties (and their associated militias) and the ways in which they have held used their power in the South, before concluding:

The new order in southern Iraq is, in short, hard to define. It is an improvement on the political exclusion and sadistic inhumanity of Saddam and has a great deal to teach the Sunni areas about prosperity, security and politics. But it is also reactionary, violent, intolerant towards women and religious minorities and uncooperative with the coalition. The new leaders have dark histories and dubious allies; they enforce a narrow social code and ignore the rural areas.

Continue reading ""Not the kind of state the coalition had hoped to create""

Posted by tomscud at 06:46 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

October 19, 2005

Iraq: Lowered Expectations

I’ll be honest with you, nobody around here wants to write about Iraq. Sure, the country has the trappings of democracy: political parties, elections and a draft constitution that may soon be ratified by popular referendum. It's certainly useful to ramble on about these "accomplishments" when uncomfortable questions about troop withdrawals come up, but do they really reflect democratic development? What do a bunch of purple fingers mean in the face of growing insurgency, ethnic/sectarian attempts to maximize factional interests, a constitution that favors federalism and obvious signs that religious conservatives are now a dominant political force?

There are a good number of governments that do not represent citizens or uphold individual rights in spite of their constitutions, referenda, elections and political parties (Miss Mabrouk has a nice summary of Egypt's election shenanigans). Just because Iraqis have gone to the polls a few times doesn’t mean they have a functioning democracy or even a self-sustaining government, for that matter. Iraq’s financial situation (or put another way, its utter dependence on the US taxpayer) is a useful example of non-viability. FT notes that the Iraqi government’s reliance on US assistance has resulted in a disincentive to curb its own expenditures:

Some US officials are also arguing that the US has to start disengaging from its role as Iraq's economic prop. This push has alarmed defence contractors, which are lobbying against such a move.

The $10bn (€8.3bn, £5.7bn) of US taxpayers' money spent so far on economic reconstruction has had limited effect, officials and analysts say, in part because of the insurgency and high insurance costs. The aid also serves to discourage the Iraqi government from making tough decisions, such as cutting back food and fuel subsidies that consume close to 40 per cent of their budget, which is projected to run a $6bn deficit.

Continue reading "Iraq: Lowered Expectations"

Posted by eerie at 11:06 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 11, 2005

Ramadan TV & Terror

Of interest to the media, terror and culture people here, a fine little story on a Ramadan soap that I have been following (or rather, am forced to follow unless I hole myself up in my office) on MBC: Syria launches terror-themed soap for Ramadan.

I caught this referenced online somewhere, but had actually been watching the series without knowing where it was going, although the last episode (10 September on MBC) gave the game away with the somewhat dime Khaliji character getting brainwashed by a ultra-Salafi takfiri type activist. That and the chica who is the implied wheel-chair bound narrator pulling or slipping back her hidjab to show nasty scarring.

Continue reading "Ramadan TV & Terror"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:11 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 04, 2005

Ramadan Competition (updated)

Once again we have the peculiar situation of Ramadan beginning on different days in the region

Middle East Muslims begin Ramadan. Although not noted, Morocco and Tunisia, like Oman are going to start a day later.

Whether true or not, there is widespread perception (among Maghrebines) that these decisions (in the case of Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria) are political - to show "indepedence."

A queer dynamic.

[An Update & Clarification]

Per a comment made, I believe I should expand and clarify for certain sub-literates who were or are unable to parse this and thus came to the rather queer understanding this comment was motivated by a lack of understanding of how Ramadan works:

Continue reading "Ramadan Competition (updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:57 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 29, 2005

IPO madness

Earlier comments here have drawn attention to the surplus of liquidity in the region, and the resulting stock market bubble. So what happens when there's an IPO for a UAE company and no way to apply for shares in Abu Dhabi?

[T]he Dana Gas IPO brought chaos to UAE banks with would-be subscribers falling over themselves to pick up application forms. All flights from Saudi Arabia to the UAE have been booked solid for days and 33,000 people crossed the border in the past four days, according to local officials.

Several banks had to close their doors to control the crowds and some banks reported scuffles as the crowds struggled to get to the counters. At least one incident was reported in which a security guard was roughed up.

New laws regulating IPOs will soon be ready in the UAE. But I believe a stock market crash is inevitable regardless.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 02:01 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 28, 2005

Big Media Catches On: Images of Iraqi Carnage Exchanged For Porn

Well, seems like the BBC, FT and others finally noticed that website where photos of dead Iraqis were posted in exchange for access to amateur porn.

We mentioned it on August 21, after Nur al-Cubicle's commentary popped up on the 'Aqoul feed aggregator.

I really can't think of a more abhorrent combination for Arab sensibilities. Has it hit the sats yet?

Posted by eerie at 02:51 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Sexy Arab Abaya Women, Assumptions: US Public Diplomacy in KSA

Returning to a subject more or less dear to 'Aqoul, women in the Arab world, for a moment, I wanted to draw attention to this intriguing article from the visit by US public diplomacy director Karen Hughes to Saudi Arabia: Saudi Women Have Message for U.S. Envoy

Let me first say little in the article was surprising to me (including Ms. Hughes surprise that the "Sisters" did not look at their cultural heritage and mores in the same light as she expected), but it is a useful one for reflexion. Thus some comments on the article:

Update: The Financial Times also has this story. Better done actually.

Continue reading "Sexy Arab Abaya Women, Assumptions: US Public Diplomacy in KSA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:25 AM | Comments (26) | TrackBack

September 11, 2005

Well, Secret Dubai Gets High Profile Mention

Nothing like fame for our colleague and friend.

Dubai Opens Door Wide to News Media, but Journalists Note a Catch

The quote: "More controversially, content that verges on the political has also been blocked: Secret Dubai Diary, a quirky blog about Western expatriate life here, was blocked for weeks this summer, raising howls from the blogger community. Etisalat says users can appeal to have a block removed."

Very nice. Quirky, though, irritates.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:08 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

August 29, 2005

Iraq: Lessons from History

Wilson was a confident and bullish colonial official who was wrestling with a serious dilemma. How, under intense international scrutiny, could he control a well-armed society that had become increasingly resentful about the occupation of their country? Wilson himself never found satisfactory answers to this question. On July 2, 1920, a revolt, or thawna, broke out along the lower Euphrates. Fueled by a population resentful at the heavy-handed approach of the occupying forces, the rebellion quickly spread across the south and center of the country. Faced with as many as 131,000 armed opponents, the British army did not regain full control until six months later in February 1921. The cost in lives and money of the revolt made the continued occupation of Iraq very unpopular with British public opinion. It also cost Wilson his job. From 1921 onward the British continually strove to cut the costs of their presence in Iraq. Ultimately the decision was made to extricate themselves from he country as quickly as possible. The result was a failure to build a liberal or even a stable state in Iraq. (Toby Dodge - Inventing Iraq)

This passage gets creepier every time I read it. I’ve mentioned Toby Dodge’s book before, partly for historical value and partly as a cautionary tale for people who can’t grasp the complexities associated with “remaking” a region. The reason I am flogging this dead horse yet again is a recent Washington Post article about the US struggle to foster a liberal democracy in the face of strong ethnic and sectarian pressures:

Continue reading "Iraq: Lessons from History"

Posted by eerie at 03:57 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 23, 2005

Sheikhing up UAE education

The UAE's education minister, Sheikh Nayhan bin Mubarak al Nahyan, is planning a massive overhaul of the country's education system. He has been highly critical of the current system: "Exam papers are poor and do not evaluate students' achievement. The entire teaching and evaluation systems are appalling. They allow every student to pass whether he or she studied or not."

UAE blogger Sandsoftime relates her own experience of the country's public education, and why radical reform is desperately needed:

"I had the unfortunate pleasure of going through the public education system here. I am not exaggerating when I say that I still mourn the wasted years of my youth spent in the hell hole that was my school. List of things wrong with school: Poorly paid idiotic teachers typically from Egypt, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Somalia, etc. A curriculum that you can pass by just memorizing your way through, poorly written text books, crumbling infrastructure (On a side note, I visited my school a few months ago. The desk I used to sit in when I was 10 years old is STILL there more than 15 years later), widespread bullying. In other words, the entire system is designed to kill off whatever latent creativity the students may have. Those who succeed after graduating do so DESPITE their schooling and not because of it.

"Why is our education system such a mess? Because like everything else, we imported it during the 70's. We however made the dumb mistake of basing ours on the Egyptian system and other Arabic systems which themselves are based on the Ottoman System. The Ottoman system was designed around creating subservient civil servants and soldiers out of its population. Have you ever wondered why much of the Arab world is dysfunctional? Because it goes hand in hand with an equally dysfunctional education system.

"This is why national parents prefer to spend the expense on sending thier kids to International Schools here in the UAE. Despite being very expensive, the International schools here are actually pretty good and do an excellent job of preparing the students for their future. One of the side effects is the kids don't have a strong command of Arabic as thier parents, something which has become prevalent among the children of well-to do nationals.

"Our public education system needs to be demolished and rebuilt from scratch. You cannot reform a system that was built on perpetuating repression."

Posted by secretdubai at 04:34 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 16, 2005

Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes

A somewhat quick note building off of a comment by the esteemed Nadezhda in regards to my rapid note on a new US Gov private equity fund _{(also with more rough perso comments at Lounsbury )} backed by the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a US parastatal investment insurance and financing house whose main line of business is political risk insurance on US direct investments in risky locales.

I have been intending - and still intend to - write some commentary on this specific issue of private equity (or in general equity finance) in the MENA region, but I thought some quick notes on this OPIC backed private equity fund for the MENA region are in order, and in response to some notes by Nadezhda - whose name I have learned to spell now.

Continue reading "Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 11, 2005

Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced

At the risk of descending into flackery or something approaching it, I thought a brief comment here might be fun.

OPIC BOARD APPROVES $75 MILLION FOR MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA FUND

Certainly this plays into my personal interests.

[Updated with correction below]
[Update with a question: Is there a debate to be had here regarding using such tools for acheiving a policy goal?]

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 05, 2005

King Abdullah takes the throne

King Fahd, as most will doubtless know by now, has died. The playboy-turned-diplomat-turned- moderniser-turned-COTTHP¹-turned-invalid has finally shuffled off this mortal coil, ten years after his last attempt and somewhat more conclusively this time.

I'm not about to praise Fahd for his reign; nor do I feel the need to blame him for the world's ills. He was a man like any other, with a man's strengths and frailties – though perhaps, like many of us, with more of the latter than the former. His incredible wealth exaggerated those traits beyond imagining.

I'm far more curious about what happens next.

There's a tendency on the part of us hacks to look for drama in a situation. It makes it more interesting to read, for sure. But in the case of a subject as complex and as opaque as the House of Saud, it doesn't really help our analyses. I will try to bear that in mind as I run through my thinking on what we're looking at in the Kingdom.

Continue reading " King Abdullah takes the throne"

Posted by yinshuisiyuan at 05:08 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 01, 2005

King Fahd is dead

A time of mourning for Saudi Arabia, as King Fahd dies:

RIYADH, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Saudi state television interrupted regular broadcasting with recitations of the Koran and one Western diplomat said he had information that King Fahd had died in hospital on Monday.

"Sources at King Faisal Specialist Hospital have informed us that he (King Fahd) is dead," the diplomat said. He did not give further details.

Eighty-one year old Crown Prince Abdullah takes the throne, while international observers fret about the future succession.

Posted by secretdubai at 03:50 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 29, 2005

Furthering Political Integration in the Gulf Cooperation Council

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a grouping of six states on the Arabian peninsula- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE- formed in 1981. Each of the aforementioned states is an absolute monarchy that depends upon hydrocarbons as the primary source of revenue for its rentier economy. The organization’s record on cooperation thus far has been mixed. Significant decisions require the unanimous support of all six member states. The GCC acts an effective bloc only when members’ national interests coincide. However, when consensus cannot be reached, decision-making is blocked.

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Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:45 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

July 27, 2005

On IMF, Populism, Yemen & Jordan: Populism as Self Defeat, or why subsidy riots are not wins

A small note in response to a note by our friend, the Father of Aardvark(s) _{(hmmmm, I believe that I should create an Arabised plural, and for the sheer fun of it, a broken one, so from now on, Abu Aardvark to me is Abu Araadvaraak (abusing grammar and presuming Ardvark is a compound word), or in Maghrebine form Bou Aradvrak).} on the 'victory' of the Yemani street in reversing the revision of subsidised petrol prices.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:09 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 26, 2005

Turns Out Iran's History Begins Before the Hostage Crisis - Part 1

Why is this guy blathering on about Iranian history?

It turns out that Iran's history begins before the '79 Hostage Crisis.

The first book I'm taking notes from wants to start even before Mohammed (pbuh, of course). The book is Roots of Revolution by Nikki R. Keddie w/ a section by Yann Richard.

Now, some of you may ask why I didn't go straight to Ervand Abrahamian's* The Iranian Mojahedin. There's more than one reason why. To start, his work is disputed by the PMOI. For me to use his work to gainsay the PMOI seems needlessly arbitrary. Second, I need at least some sort of a minimalist landscape to use as background for the portrait of the MKO in my mind. I need some deeper history. Third, that book's not in at my local library.

It's interesting that in the preface both Juan Cole and Michael Ledeen are given thanks for their help in making the book possible. These are two folks who are seen in American, popular, political culture as residing on opposite sides of a fence- one a pro-neocon visionary and the other a librul with qualms about nuking Mecca. The book was published back in 1981 when, presumably, the differences between the two fellas were less hyped.

Continue reading "Turns Out Iran's History Begins Before the Hostage Crisis - Part 1"

Posted by Simon W. Moon at 07:10 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

July 23, 2005

Another 9-11: Christmas for the Mojahedin-e Khalq?

According to former CIA agent turned journo, Philip Giraldi, Cheney has told STRATCOM to draw up a plan for responding to another major terrorist attack on the US with an assault on Iran. It'd be a full scale affair including "a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons." And, "As in the case of Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States."
The piece is featured in Aug 1 print edition of American Conservative Magazine

Hopefully, this is what Senator Kyl would call "over the top bluster" on Mr. Giraldi's part. If not, if there's some substance to this characterization of the plans, another tragic attack on the US could be the opening the Sazeman-e Mojahedin-e Khalq-e Iran have been waiting for. They may be able to leverage tragedy and their not insignificant support among various US political actors into an expense paid trip to the remains of Tehran.

Posted by Simon W. Moon at 12:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 21, 2005

Secret Dubai Diary Blocked by the UAE

One of 'Aqoul's contributors, secretdubai, now has firsthand experience with UAE's strict internet censorship practices. Her blog, Secret Dubai Diary, was apparently blocked by UAE's Etisalat internet provider after she published a (rather funny) poem based on Gilbert & Sullivan.

The resulting furor has been picked up by local news:

Bloggers express disappointment over web block

Secret Dubai Diary, a weblog that examines UAE life from an occasionally ironic perspective, was blocked for visitors using Etisalat servers on Sunday.

"I have never heard or read of a Dubai blog being blocked before," says Adnan Arif, an award-winning UAE-based blogger. "Out of all the UAE-based blogs it is the most interesting. It is probably the first blog to hit on a formula that works for local readers."

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Posted by eerie at 12:24 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 03, 2005

Burning bridges, breaking borders

Gulf Arabs and expats are fairly consistent in their opinion of Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom and its oppressive laws and corruption are resented and despised, and businesses trips to the Kingdom are generally loathed and dreaded. The statement: "I've got to fly to Riyadh tomorrow" provokes more sympathy and spine-shuddering among males (given female expats are lucky enough to usually escape the experience by dint of owning a vagina) than any personal tragedy.

Now Saudi Arabia is objecting to a causeway that the UAE plans to build to Qatar, to make travel easier. One could already travel between the UAE and Qatar by land, if the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia wasn't so backwards, restrictive and uncooperative as to make it impossible for anyone to pass through a tiny bit of its land. Land which - according to some maps and opinions - does not even belong to KSA anyway.

According to other reports, Saudi Arabia is also dead set against the building of a bridge that Qatar and Bahrain are currently planning to build. “This is because Riyadh fears this kind of bridges would enhance the affinity and rapprochement between the small member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council."

"Relations among the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain are currently witnessing improvement, making the kingdom to see how their relations develop within the Gulf environment. This follows the distancing of Bahrain and UAE from the kingdom in recent times, while Oman is closer to the new Gulf bloc of the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar. As for Kuwait, it is now keeping a close eye on the developments before it decides where to align itself", the report said.

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Posted by secretdubai at 01:21 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

July 02, 2005

The Struggle of Moderate Islam

The following letter was written to the Khaleej Times newspaper on 26 April 2005.

Moderation good for Muslims

"ISLAM recognises no theocracy, and no overlordship of any religious leader or party. Each believer prays directly to God without any intermediary. So in a way, the authority of our clergy rests on very shaky foundations." Irfan Hussain (KT, April 21) has hit the nail on the head.

I really appreciate you for publishing this wonderful opinion. Some clerics go rampant not only in Pakistan, but also in Bangladesh and many other developing Muslim nations. Muslim parents in these countries send their children to 'madrassas' to learn about Islam and its beauty.

But, unfortunately, the children learn an extreme form of Islam created by misinterpreting the teachings of Holy Quran and the 'hadith' in an aggressive way by these clerics. They merely take advantage of the poverty and illiteracy to inject the doctrine of violence and hatred in the veins of young pupils. They portray the image of non-Muslims somewhat like 'untouchables'.

The acquiring of knowledge is treated as a sin and moderation is seen as transgression. The beauty of Islam is completely destroyed. Thus, the religion of peace is transformed into a religion of terror. The teachings of these clerics suggest Muslims are born only to go for ‘jihad’ and dying irrationally will help them acquire salvation.

Jihad is allowed only when the enemies target us, and the killing of innocent people for the sin they never committed is not jihad, but an extreme sin. God created every human being and only God has the power to take the lives of His creatures. Islam teaches us to respect life, not destroy it. These clerics should not be encouraged. They transgress, invent, and destroy the true teachings of Islam.

The Muslim governments should keep these people in check in order to progress and make our mark in the world. The acquiring of knowledge should get top priority. Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) always taught the believers to acquire knowledge and to spread knowledge. We should follow his holy teachings.

— Mohd. Salekun Noor, Fujairah

Posted by secretdubai at 04:39 PM | Comments (3)