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MENA Region General Archives
June 06, 2009
Obama Talking to Just Arabs/Iran/MENA?
So says the Jakarta Post. That's in Indonesia. Jakarta, that is, not the Post. Well, the Post too but there are Posts everywhere.
At least three - democracy promotion, religious freedom and women's rights - of his seven points are more relevant to a region who's [sic] governments are bastions of despotism than [to] the average Indonesian,. . . . for the majority of Indonesians - Muslim or otherwise - these three issues are fundamental ways of life already held dear. . . Not surprisingly Indonesia's most eminent Muslim thinkers were products of Western scholarship, not Al-Azhar or Arab Universities . . ..But in Cairo he put an Arabic frame on a cultural dialog which most Muslims may not relate to.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
May 02, 2009
Emirates Torture, goes "global"
Well, it appears that the Abu Dhabi ruling family has gotten itself into a pickle with one of its more "tradition" minded royals. That is the torture video of Sheik Issa bin Zayed al-Nahyan. The age of youtube and fast diffusion of such media wrongfooting their Emirates image-branding. I confess when I saw this on FT etc I rather shrugged, thinking that the Emiratis would PR their way forward as usual. Certainly the medieval behaviour wasn't very surprising: Videotape Complicates U.S. Deal With Emirates - NYTimes.com
The videotape — first shown last week by ABC News — has provoked outrage from members of Congress, who said it could add fuel to lawmakers’ reservations about a pending civilian nuclear agreement between the United States and the United Arab Emirates, the seven-member federation on the Persian Gulf to which Abu Dhabi belongs.
Now, while it is probably true the source - who by name is almost certainly a Levantine, I'd guess either Palestinian and/or Lebanese [not being a binary choice per se] is without doubt somewhat slimey,
The videotape, made in 2004, emerged in a separate lawsuit filed by Bassam Nabulsi, a former business partner of Sheik Issa. Mr. Nabulsi, an American citizen from Houston, claims he was later tortured by Emirates police officers after he refused to hand over the videotape.The tape was made by Mr. Nabulsi’s brother on orders from Sheik Issa, who liked to film torture sessions and watch them later in his palace, said Anthony G. Buzbee, Mr. Nabulsi’s lawyer.
In its statement, the government of Abu Dhabi — the emirate to whose ruling family Sheik Issa belongs — promised a “comprehensive review” of the matter. It also said the government “understands that the matter depicted on the video was resolved between the two parties and that no criminal charges were brought by either party.”
The man being tortured in the video is Mohammed Shah Poor, an Afghan grain merchant who Sheik Issa believed had cheated him, Mr. Buzbee said. Mr. Poor was gravely injured but survived, Mr. Buzbee said.
....
Daryl Bristow, Sheik Issa’s lawyer, said in a statement that “Bassam Nabulsi and his lawyer are attempting to use a videotape of a third party to influence the court and public opinion” about the lawsuit. He added that he could not comment on details because of the suit, but that “when all the facts are known, the one-sided ‘story’ being told by Nabulsi and his lawyer will be completely addressed and Nabulsi will be discredited.”
However, the fine British lawyer really should have come up with something better than Nabulsi being "discredited" - here's a hint mate, your client is on video torturing someone over a commercial transaction, and it seems highly likely that there is more video (that is they are not bluffing); one rather has to credit the probability that the client did like getting videotaped engaging in his medieval commercial dispute resolution. As such, even if Nabulsi is a total scumbag - and the fact he (or his bro) filmed torture sessions makes that near certainty - no 'discrediting' is terribly helpful to your client (well in court maybe, but one rather suspects the least of his problems is the actual court case).
This is one of those moments where lawyers should know to keep their fucking mouths shut. Second observation, do not let a lawyer be your PR person.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:56 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
April 27, 2009
Googley Moogely Arabic
Okay a stupid title, I should let Hogan do the puns and pun related humour. However, some items on this FT arty
FT.com Google aims for bigger Arab audience
Internet usage has jumped 1,000 per cent over the past seven years in the Middle East, yet it still lags well behind other regions. Overall internet penetration has reached 10 to 12 per cent, although with the region’s large number of shared connections, up to 50 per cent of the population is estimated to have access to the net.Google, the internet company, hopes to provide the tools that will help users to increase the amount of Arabic content online.
Leaving aside the numbers, which may or may not be dodgey, it is interesting that a heavy weight like google is coming to Arabic.
Some further comments:
Continue reading "Googley Moogely Arabic"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:19 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Tarnishing the Emirates Image?
FT.com Video of assault draws fire for UAE
The incident threatens to tarnish the reputation of Abu Dhabi. It also poses questions about the rule of law and impunity in a nation dominated by powerful families.
Hmmm, perhaps I am overly cynical, but isn't this exactly the image of the Emiratis?
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:49 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
April 25, 2009
Economic Crisis & Stability: Maghreb and MENA Frings, the end of the Emigration Boom
Two articles not immediately evidently related, but speaking to similar issues. That is the impact of the global financial crisis on the emigrant populations from the MENA and MENA Fringe to either wealthy regions or Europe. The article on the Spanish situation suggests there could be a significant reflux back, but Europe differs from the Gulf example - the FT arty on the Pakis - in that the immigrant communities are older, many have permanent residency that is not employment connected (Gulfie style disguised indentured servitude).
As Jobs Die, Europe’s Migrants Head Home - NYTimes.com
That changed in the decade-long expansion that began in the late 1990s. In Spain, where the growth has been the most explosive, the foreign population rose to 5.2 million last year out of a total of 45 million people from 750,000 in 1999, according to the National Statistics Institute. Ireland’s population, now 4.1 million, was also transformed, with the percentage of foreign-born residents rising to 11 percent in 2006 from 7 percent in 2002.“In the U.S., it took generations to build up a foreign-born population of that size,” said Demetrios Papademetriou, head of the Migration Policy Institute, a research group in Washington. “These countries have done it at an unprecedented rate, but the society and institutions haven’t even begun to have a chance to catch up.”
FT.com - Hard homecoming for Pakistan’s expatriates
The downturn in the Middle East is forcing large numbers of Pakistani expatriate workers to return home, exchanging lives of comfort for unemployment in a country experiencing political turmoil, growing insecurity and a deteriorating economy.Those coming back from the oil-rich region range from senior and mid-career staff in banks, consumer goods companies and multinationals, to blue-collar workers such as drivers, labourers and domestic servants.
The financial crisis is reversing a trend of large-scale migration from Asia to the Middle East, especially from countries such as India, the Philippines, China and Thailand.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:35 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Al Qaeda fil Maghreb & Generally: Oil facilties as a strategy.
A brief note on potential for Al Qaeda to target oil facilities: Al Qaeda & Oil Facilities in the Midst of the Global Economic Crisis
One item that caught the eye:
. Moreover, observers have noticed the increasing targeting of facilities and workers in the oil and gas sector in Algeria by the so-called “al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb”.
I am not sure this is in fact all that much the case.
Otherwise, the conclusion:
ConclusionAs mentioned above, Bin Laden’ said in 2004 that oil prices should reach $150 per barrel. Legitimizing the targeting oil pipelines, refineries or workers rather than the wells themselves suggests that raising oil prices is a strategy Salafi-jihadists are adopting. In the shadow of bin Laden’s threat of "opening new fronts for the attrition of the economy of the West", it seems that such understanding is not limited to the Middle East only. The African continent is becoming an increasingly important for the diversification of oil production and transportation, as well as is the Caspian Sea region which is critical for diversification of oil resources to the West. However the risk of targeting oil interests, is not confined to certain geographical locations, as it’s associated with a strategy of opening “new fronts”.
According to this understanding, it seems that the targeting of oil facilities by al-Qaeda or affiliated Salafi-jihadists is designed to affect the flow of oil leading to higher fuel prices in the midst of a global economic cris
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:06 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
April 24, 2009
Orientalist Art Boom: Will this get Aqoul design a cash bid?
From Saudi Aramcoworld comes this report of how middle easterners learned to stop worrying and finally loved the balm of Orientalist art:
In July 2008, Orientalism brought £21.4 million to Christie’s in London, “the highest total ever achieved for this category,” says Alexandra McMorrow, director of 19th-century European art for the prestigious auction house. This included world record prices for seven artists; “bidders from North Africa, the Middle East, India, Europe and America competed fiercely,” she adds. . . .These shifts are part of a larger, gradual, mostly sympathetic reevaluation that has been taking place over the past few decades of much 19th-century European art.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:44 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
April 20, 2009
Algeria: Mr. Comb Over & The Mee Too Container Terminal - Basic Reforms, Rents & Opportunities.
I should be less unkind, but frankly the awful hell that is required of one on every bloody business trip to Algiers (and having just returned from one), makes me disinclined.
Nevertheless, Algeria's copycat (okay not entirely copy cat) development of its port, following what appears to be a successful Moroccan operation at Tangamed has positive potential. FT's arty on DPW "vow[ing] to remodel Algiers port might even be a ray of hope in the otherwise bleak Algerian business landscape.
Might, of course being a powerfully operative word, as I have developed a highly jaundiced view over the years of promises of reform in Algeria. Some key details. [Ahem fixed the title]
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 12, 2009
Reading Race in MENA: Black Imam of Mecca and American reads
While not a terrible article, the New York Times coverage of the new 'black' Imam in Mecca is subtly irritating for its facile American centric lens. A Black Imam Breaks Ground in Mecca - Biography - NYTimes.com
It's easy to be rather too nitpickily peevish about such things, but nevertheless a bit better context should have been easy to achieve here:
Officially, it was his skill at reciting the Koran that won him the position, which he carries out — like the Grand Mosque’s eight other prayer leaders — only during the holy month of Ramadan. But the racial significance of the king’s gesture was unmistakable.Sheik Adil, like most Saudis, is quick to caution that any racism here is not the fault of Islam, which preaches egalitarianism. The Prophet Muhammad himself, who founded the religion here 1,400 years ago, had black companions. [Lounsbury: Ahem such as a certain Bilal...]
“Our Islamic history has so many famous black people,” said the imam, as he sat leaning his arm on a cushion in the reception room of his home. “It is not like the West.”
It is also true that Saudi Arabia is far more ethnically diverse than most Westerners realize. Saudis with Malaysian or African features are a common sight along the kingdom’s west coast, the descendants of pilgrims who came here over the centuries and ended up staying. Many have prospered and even attained high positions through links to the royal family. Bandar bin Sultan, the former Saudi ambassador to the United States, is the son of Prince Sultan and a dark-skinned concubine from southern Saudi Arabia.
But slavery was practiced here too, and was abolished only in 1962. Many traditional Arabs from Nejd, the central Saudi heartland, used to refer to all outsiders as “tarsh al bahr” — vomit from the sea. People of African descent still face some discrimination, as do most immigrants, even from other Arab countries. Many Saudis complain that the kingdom is still far too dominated by Nejd, the homeland of the royal family. There are nonracial forms of discrimination too, and many Shiite Muslims, a substantial minority, say they are not treated fairly.
Emphasis added.
While I would be the last to deny colour prejudice is present in the region - MENA, the Gulf, Mashriq, Maghrib - the highlighted part really is myopically American, tying explicitly colour and slavery into an automatic association. That certainly was not the case for most of Islamic history, and seeing the Nejdi prejudices as primarily or even essentially racial strikes me as rather misunderstanding Saudi society (or Gulfie society) via the eyes of American cultural norms.
The colour prejudice is there, but given slavery was except its last decades perhaps, never colour exclusive (although one should not forget that towards the end, the low-end slavery was more or less exclusively African), it is hardly the sole driver, and the profound prejudices against outsiders, including pale Lebs for example, is much more that of a parochial tribal society than the implied counterpart to American or even old European colour prejudice as such.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:52 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
April 11, 2009
Is the west thwarting Arab plans for reform?
Answering the question, well.... yes if one wants to grace incoherent and often contradictory aspirations with the name reform... FT: Is the west thwarting Arab plans for reform?
The west’s morbid fear of political Islam has served to deny Arabs democracy in case they support Islamists, just as during the cold war many Latin Americans, Asians and Africans had to endure western-endorsed dictators lest they supported communists. Unless the Arab countries and the broader Middle East can find a way out of this pit of autocracy, their people – more than half of them under 25 – will be condemned to bleak lives of despair, humiliation and rage. Western support for autocracy and indulgence of corruption in this region, far from securing stability, breeds extremism and, in extremis, failed states. It will, of course, be primarily up to the citizens of these countries to claw their way out of that pit. But the least they can expect from the west is not to keep stamping on their fingers.
There is something to be said for this analysis, although I rather seriously doubt that stability can be generated by political change as such.
Continue reading "Is the west thwarting Arab plans for reform?"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 23, 2009
Dubai, Bye Bye?: Guardian Lumps Gulf City's Fate with Detroit
Simon Jenkins at The Guardian declares prognosis negative on the ultimate fate of Dubai, which he has slated to be the Detroit of the Middle East, only worse, and largely on an architectural basis. My gut and a brief impression there in real time tend to disagree. But folks with real data and experience are out there. (UPDATE: One of our Aqoul circle opines differently from Jenkins here (disclaimer, author didn't write the overenthusiastic tite). And now, for the Dubai-curious. a bit of Jenkins below the break.
Continue reading "Dubai, Bye Bye?: Guardian Lumps Gulf City's Fate with Detroit"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:56 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
February 12, 2009
A Maghreb Focused Blog, in English
: Seems quite decent on a first look.Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 12, 2009
Not Gaza: The Dubai Hangover
First, this post is not about Gaza. Gaza sucks, it will continue to suck with or without the Israelis blowing the fuck out of school children & generally demonstrating that formerly oppressed peoples are absolutely brilliant at using their suffering to justify replicating the same dehumanisation of their enemies du jour (of course MENA & SSAfrica provides less media friendly examples as well) and unless the US decides to stop being the dog wagged by the tail, nothing will change. I remain favourable to expelling everyone and resettling the entire "Holy Land" with Turks, who at least can properly plan religious holidays.
Rather more interesting, the slow motion, semi-disguised implosion of Dubai and its real estate bubble. The FT's recent(ish) article on emerging Dubai Real Estate Scam/Scandals gave me a fine tickle of schadenfreude [let me confess that despite having studied in Berlin, I have to recheck the spelling every time as it never looks right...]. Although this merits further comment (that you may or may not get depending on the state of my business ventures and level of paranoia), it is worth noting that the Great Credit Unwinding, although it initially generated schadenfreude among the Gulf Arabs, is now exposing the fine little house of cards that was Dubai Real Estate. In many ways I rather regret this, as in the end I fear that Dubai's quasi liberalism could be discredited, but they brought this on themselves by losing sight of the core value proposition that made Dubai of 1995-2005 (pls note, I just pulled those dates out of my addled impressionistic memory, they are not serious, one could vary 2-3 years on the end date, start date, eh, I dunno) a real value proposition and standard setter for the Mashriq region with fairly liberal values, ease of business, and not too insane speculation. Then Hubris set in. I think it was somewhere between 2003 and 2005.
Regardless, the potential collapse of Dubai as well as the real damage done to the US and the UK represents serious damage to the Liberal economic model in the MENA region. While the US clearly went off on a bender (and Dubai on a vaguely similar one - my view, hate Real Estate, it appears solid when it is not) the MENA region desperately needs more Liberalism, not less, given the schlerotic regimes and 'regulation' that largely serves as rent extraction.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:14 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack
January 01, 2009
New Month/Year/Fiscal Quarter Open Thread
Happy New Year. Continuing here a tradition of sorts, and on some related journals, inviting general open comments, observations, etc. on blog and MENA issues. (A thread specific to the latest Gaza stripping is on a separate track in an entry just below.)
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:09 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
December 30, 2008
Gaza round, all ye clowns: Open thread
Try to keep the hyperpartisanship down in this more heat than light subject. Observations, etc. on the latest, have at it. But when in doubt, note sentence 1 here again.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:50 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack
November 23, 2008
Paternalism & Global Crisis, MENA Boom and ... Bust & the Nanny States
FT's Roula Khalaf, has a fine article on Gulf region paternalism, using the Kuwaiti example, on the stresses of the Petrol States as oil pricing collapses with global demand, and their nanny state traditions catch up. In discussion directly, Kuwaitis asking for the Government to prop up the stock markets.
Continue reading "Paternalism & Global Crisis, MENA Boom and ... Bust & the Nanny States"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 19, 2008
House Niggers: Obama, Race & MENA
First, for regular 'Aqoul readers and contributors, my apologies for the ongoing absence. Think of it as a recharge period. Frankly there has not been much interesting for me to say (that I can say, given most of the most interesting things I would comment on have been rather too 'sensitive' for me).
Second, today's Al Qaeda media event - Ayman az-Zaouahiri's fine little exposition of unconscious (or perhaps not so unconscious) Egyptian and Arab racism in describing Obama as a Abid el Beit, a house slave, using a word (Abd/Abid) that in the East has somewhat nasty overtones in dialectal (versus classical/formal) usage.
I refrained from writing anything on Obama during the election as I rather thought that there was nothing much to add. I suppose this is a moment to add that the reaction across the board to Obama's election was ecstatic, including among the Arab financial professionals I have the most contact with. I should perhaps put up some more personal observations if that seems interesting on the Lounsbury pages, but none of this is terribly surprising (and unfortunately professional obligations prevent me from sharing the best and most revealing reactions, although I should say that I was stunned to discover that the illiterate grandmother of my cousins not only following the
US elections but asking her children for updates on US elections eve and day).
However, the Zaouahiri demarche is interesting to comment on and discuss. The use of a fairly racially charged phrase I found rather interesting.
Continue reading "House Niggers: Obama, Race & MENA"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:39 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack
November 09, 2008
Now Hear the Nerds of the Lord: Monks Battle in J'lem
Not since the pocket-protectors flew maniacally in my high-school Chess Team intramural conflict between Star Trek and Star Wars clubs have I seen such a significant Battle of the Nerds (I was Trek). In Jerusalem's Holy Sepulchre, alleged tomb of Christ, Greek Orthodox and Armenian monks have been busted after exchanging hard blows (no relation to child sex scandals, btw).
The monk, who gave his name as Serafim, said he sustained the wound when an Armenian punched him from behind and broke his glasses.No word on his Rubik's cube, but the monastic mayhem is all part of the long-runnning turf wars of Christian sects over a site that even the big JC walked out of after only three days (theologians debate still what happened to the 30-day deposit). This conflict is dwarfed by the larger mostly Muslim Arab versus mostly Jewish Israeli contentions over the whole city, but could conceivably outsize it in being even stupider. On the other hand, such intra-Xtian things did give us the Crimean War which produced Tennyson's great Charge of the LIght Brigade.
Continue reading "Now Hear the Nerds of the Lord: Monks Battle in J'lem"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
November 04, 2008
Barack Hussein Obama MENA Open Thread
Looks like America's first Hawaiian-bred, Kenyan-derived, Indonesian-educated, 1960s-born, Muslim-middle-named President-elect is about to be. What does the success of Obama/Biden portend, if anything, for the Middle East North Africa region? Obama's foreign affairs team seems not wildly new, at least in terms of the conventional US spectrum. Some discussion has already started on the monthly open thread.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
November 03, 2008
New-ish Month Open Thread
You know the drill. Try to be as penetrating.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:11 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
November 01, 2008
(UPDATE) Starving for Detention: Pro-Saudi-Dissident Hunger Strike
A hunger strike in Saudi Arabia on behalf of Saudi dissidents in custody is set for November 6-7. It is apparently the first such hunger strike in Saudi Arabia, or at least the first publicly known one.
"To the government, we want to say that you can't put prisoners of conscience in jail without facing consequences," said Walid Abu-Alkhair, a writer and lawyer in Jiddah. "And to the activists, we want to say, you are not alone. We want to show that when you put human rights activists in jail, a new wave will come and take their place."Food for thought, or non-food as the case may be. (UPDATE: full information release/specifics further down below).
Continue reading "(UPDATE) Starving for Detention: Pro-Saudi-Dissident Hunger Strike"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
October 29, 2008
Seeders of Lebanon? Local Banking System Stability Noted
This NY Times article (may need to register) reports that Lebanon has remarkably stable and well-capitalized banks. In the midst of global turmoil in finance, they have eschewed speculative investments in favor of storing high levels of deposits. This stability has begun to attract hedge funds from outside. But to the untutored observer here, the article leaves open a simpler question -- how do the Lebanese banks make money (i.e. where do they lend for profit)? It appears that the banks are looking to branch out to several neighboring places (e.g.Bank Audi in other Arab lands), but there is little in the article to indicate they do much more than serve as safe places for deposit and as transfer agents for expatriate and diaspora inbound remittances (not that there's anything wrong with that, it's safe and presumably safely profitable via use fees, if any etc.). Otherwise the banks service some of the national debt of $45 billion. Are they simply giant vaults or seeders of a better future? Or might it be both?
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:10 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
October 04, 2008
Eyes of Ramadan
A perennial issue at the start and end of Ramadan - who and how to determine it - is fairly well described in this FT article, with the essence of the issue around using eyes (unaided or aided) or astronomical calculations to make the determination, with the differences taking a political edge.
But some commentators now believe the process may be as much about political allegiance as any religious observance. Saudi Arabia, as the birthplace of Islam and the location of its two holiest mosques, has always commanded a position of respect, but even so many Muslim countries have traditionally followed the sightings as determined by their own religious scholars. ....Several senior figures in Saudi Arabia had supported shifting towards astronomical calculations – or at least using telescopes – in line with King Abdullah’s general policy of reform and modernisation. They suggest that these devices might help produce a reliable calendar in advance, greatly facilitating everything from determining official public holidays to travel plans.
In August, however, the Supreme Judicial Council and Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia voted to reject any “mathematical calculation” of the calendar and issued a fatwa against using any means other than observation with the naked eye.
Countries with close Saudi links followed the ruling of the Mufti in accordance with their traditions. Gulf states, except Oman, often follow Saudi Arabia’s decision. This year, Jordanian religious officials indicated they did not see the crescent at all yet would follow the Saudi ruling in deference to “Islamic unity”.
Continue reading "Eyes of Ramadan"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:02 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
September 30, 2008
Marshall Plan vs Iraq War: Costs
Another trivia about costs: Several sources indicate the war in Iraq has cost about $550 billion so far. Comparatively, the Marshall Plan which helped repel communism in Western Europe by bringing prosperity and stability there, cost $13 billion, which in today’s money is equivalent to anywhere between $100 and $750 billion. Applicability of such a plan in MENA today vs. post war Europe?
Posted by Shaheen at 01:30 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
September 21, 2008
As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA
Well, as we watch the United States nationalise its financial system in fits and starts, rather like the quasi emerging market it has become (I should note that I was amused to read comment somewhere regarding Central Banking and best practice, now that the US central bank has become the handmaiden of its finanance ministry. So much for all that independence talk they've spent the last decade pimping), a moment to look at MENA.
I suppose the Americans can say little about Iran's Gov booting a too uppity Gov of the Cen. Bank, not that one should expect particularly rational comment on Iran from the US at present, regardless.
I must say that the GCC going ahead with the monetary union preps surprised me slightly, insofar as its strikes me their interests are rather divergent at present in terms of policy.... but draft plans and actual execution are not something the Gulf is glued to by habit.
On perhaps the merely amusing side, Rush to the Gulf set to lower salaries speaks to the oversupply of bankers and doubts being expressed that the Gulf is really the boomtown(s) as presented. Dubai rather.... In the same manner, there is a nice set of items to talk about this week, if I get a chance, notably:
- the first signs the Dubai et all Gulf Property Speculation Game is going to splot;
- Capital flight can hit even the most well intentioned little financial black holes...even Dubai Land
- But the oil gusher does allow for very high standards of National Poverty
Continue reading "As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:58 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
September 17, 2008
Yemen Goes South: Open Carnage Thread
Latest news indicates 16 or so dead in an apparent attempted raid on the U.S. Embassy to Yemen. This account, based on Yemen insider sources who work hard to bring the discussion quickly around to the expected "you need to send us more money, dammit", indicates it was a successfully stopped large-scale raid, and likely it was al-Qaeda (now there's some serious sleuthing!). Comments on the event from Aqoulites, friends, enemies, etc. . . . have at it.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:29 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
September 13, 2008
MENA & World Food Crisis, A topic to consider?
The "global food crisis" (or perhaps, food commodity price shock, crisis being a bit anticipatory), should be fairly well known to all, although this FT background (index page) is very useful, and of course stories like on the wealthier MENA countries, that is of course the Gulf, buying up land elsewhere to assure food prod have prompted bleating about Neo Colonialism and related inanities.
The item here for an open thread is pondering how Aqoul might ponder..... As I am openly bored of the usual topics, what is to say, has been said in gross modo, barring new developments, while certain interesting things I can't touch as it begins to impinge on actual real interests, as it were.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
September 08, 2008
On Hidjabs, Sexy or Not (encore), public sexualities etc.
One of our comment leavers drew my attention to this arty by a certain Naomi Wolf, pubished in Egypt in this instance, on questioning typical Western reactions to the Hidjab and the Chador / Burqa...
An interesting article - at first I had this Naomi Wolf confused with the Canadian Leftist git of not terribly similar name, except first - and I think I would largely agree, although it perhaps too readily excuses some items.
Further comment later, must off to meeting go.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
September 04, 2008
Gulf: The Wonderful Lightness of Opacity - Corporate Gov
A bit of analysis of zero surprise to anyone who has done business in the area, but worthy of attention the FT's note - "The transparency shortfall" on lack of transparency in the Gulf.
While on one hand more transparency would be good, on the other hand, the real incentives in a liquidity drenched environment is pretty low. Without real incentives, mere pablum about raising more money from foreigners (why bother) isn't going to drive change. Of course in the medium term it's needed, but human nature is short-termist.
Otherwise, a further item of reflexion and debate:
Kuwaiti and Saudi companies, surprisingly, produced the lowest average scores. These longstanding trading cultures boast the region’s largest pools of liquidity, some of its most sophisticated investors and strong regulations.One of the metrics used by the research is whether a company publishes annual reports in English. About a third of GCC companies do not, but that rises to 60 per cent in Kuwait and 68 per cent in Saudi Arabia – a large factor in their poor performance.
Companies that publish crucial corporate information in Arabic put a swathe of investors at a disadvantage, the researchers argue.
Leaving aside the idea it is "surprising" that Saudiyah and Kuwait are least transparent (certainly doesn't surprise me, what 'trading cultures' has to do with transparency rather escapes me (never mind the dodginess of the characterisation)., the probable debate point here is regarding use of English (by listed companies) in reporting.
Continue reading "Gulf: The Wonderful Lightness of Opacity - Corporate Gov"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
September 02, 2008
MENA Economic Futures, & Nitrogen
In honour of Ramadan and food (well not really Ramadan, but I just ate), an interesting FT arty to ponder: Middle East & North Africa - Economy: The food sector’s other growing need which discusses the importance of fertilizers in the global food production matrix and dealing with the relative shortfall of food production growth (or rather food reaching market growth), and ... MENA.
(a rather different angle than this)
There is, though, an additional dependence, as HSBC pointed out in a recent note. Many Middle Eastern countries, short of food and water, are large-scale exporters of a material that could enable those poor countries to grow crops to feed everyone – fertilisers.And here companies in the region find themselves in a sweet spot. Those with access to gas – an essential input for nitrogen-based fertilisers – are likely to do particularly well because they have negotiated long-term and generous supply contracts, the bank says.
An interesting item for pondering, although phosphates, I have been reading have some relative shortfalls in new discoveries, similar to petrol.
Continue reading "MENA Economic Futures, & Nitrogen"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 24, 2008
MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?
Moving back MENA-ward, I add a rant inspired by long-time discussions here and elsewhere regarding investment in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. My amateur self keeps reading about Gulf or other money chasing things like real estate or hub port facilities, or digging out more of that Texas tea. Now, I hope I don't use too technical economic terms here, but here goes the rant: shouldn't the bulk of this fund dough, including money from superrich nations, be going towards activities where, you know, MENA regular folks will, like, MAKE NEW STUFF and then SELL THAT NEWLY-MADE STUFF TO OTHER PEOPLE for, um, HARD MONEY. That may sound a bit hi-falutin grad-school airy-fairy idealistic, development economics-y, but it needs to be said.
Continue reading "MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack
August 19, 2008
Waning Maximalism: Siren Syria
It is always difficult to evaluate the reality of Gulf investments - they are the vapour ware of the investment world, often announced, much less often delivered. However, this Gulf Times arty on Gulfie investment in Syria is nevertheless interesting taken in hand with the recent trips by US bankers, hat in hand, to the Gulf.
While not explicitly connected, there has been major damage to American reputation - and Western banks reputations I would add - in this last year and one can not but think Lebanese Presidents visiting Syria is a bit of realism that but four years ago would have been off the table.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 16, 2008
Georgia-MENA open thread
(Apologies for genuinely accidental labored allusion.) Anyway, Russia has been doing a bit of marching through Georgia, reviving the Cold War-era 1980s for a bit (assuming the decade had ever left). Readers, writers, commenters, members, computer-owners and -operators are invited to share their wisdom on the latest Caucasian occasion, but most particularly in ways it may relate to the Middle East North Africa regions. Iran yawns; Israel lays low; Turks get dissed; Georgia removes its legions from Mesopotamia. And Vladimir Putin has been confirmed as Tsar of all the Russias, every blasted one of them, even those little Russias that fall under the couch cushions.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:10 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack
August 02, 2008
Arabic Translation Peeve, vol 200: Is this the Best the Army can do?
Check this out. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Mr. 9/11, provided in Arabic answers to questions in the trial of bin-Laden's driver. Here is what our competent Arabic translators of our front-line fighting forces in the war on terror, as edited by our leading media, in a trial under a global microscope, provide as one answer of his:
“As the American Army (we) have drivers, cooks, crewmen and legal personal,” Mohammed wrote. . . "We also, are human beings ... we have interests in life. ...You can not understand terrorism and Al-Qaida from 9/11 operation.”Rant below.
Continue reading "Arabic Translation Peeve, vol 200: Is this the Best the Army can do?"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:18 PM | Comments (29) | TrackBack
August 01, 2008
His Hair Was Perfect: Werewolves of Gaza
(Apologies to the late Mr Zevon.) Turkey's so deeply meaningful war over hatwear nearly overthrew the government, and apparently its recent being sent to its room without supper is causing the AKP to temporarily write off the struggle, um, whole cloth. But those profound Turkish wars of meaning over hatwear give way to Gaza, where the struggle over the true hair of steadfastness has reached crisis proportions. It appears that Hamas is now shaving the moustaches off Fatah activists, in retaliation for the jackbooted debearding of Hamas loyalists by Fatah. An ominous development for a society already beset by settlers wielding sidecurls in violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention on Treatment of Follicles. Is history so soon forgotten, or are they just returning to their roots? Is it not time to get more bangs for the buck, and yes, rogaine one's freedom? And didn't Munich teach that even a small moustache needs to be stopped early? Turkey has stopped hair-covering, but hair itself remains appeased. Can anyone not see the civilization at stake in all this? What coiffure-textile combination do you feel best reflects optimal social values? Or is this person the secret key to global harmony?
Continue reading "His Hair Was Perfect: Werewolves of Gaza"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:47 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
July 27, 2008
Turkey: The Islamic Democrat Option & The Court
The Financial Times has an interesting commentary on Turkey and the current court battle against the AKP: Objection overruled: Turkish political Islam fights for survival in court. Of particular note is the decline of the European option and what may be the subsequent damage to political liberalism. It is hard to say what is precisely right here, but my instinct is that the Turkish secular establishment is shooting its own foot off. The gains by the AKP are as much due to simple basic competence as Islamic appeal, and from the point of a view as a model cited now and again in MENA (in MENA, by Islamist parties), this struggle, unlike much Turkish political reference, has echoes.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:50 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
Water, Food & Petrol
Last week, as part of an ongoing series on the emerging issue of food price spikes and food security, the New York Times published an interesting article on Egyptian Ag industry and farming (although pretending to be an article about all MENA....
An interesting if typically journalistically shallow discussion. In general it highlighted why it is terribly difficult to be optimistic about Egypt's future, given an entirely screwed up economy (although yes liberalizing, although inflation and poor management threaten the gains - also this article at greater depth on the economy), and a screwed up Ag system...
The article frames its Egyptian based observations as all MENA, but while certain issues are shared, many are very Egyptian. Certainly Ag is attracting capital flows, although some may be more real estate plays - e.g. the cited Gulfie interest.
Continue reading "Water, Food & Petrol"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 26, 2008
Anglos & Arabic: the bizzaro world of the MEMRIstas
Thanks to The Skeptic, or maybe to curse him as this I missed blissfully, of this special piece of stupidity that the Washington Post published earlier, in which a certain student Pollack whinges on about supposed biases in his Arabic text. A terribly tedious and queer little whinge - why it got published escapes me. Although this text came out I think some years after me own Arabic studies (done in the strange dark years of the Orange), I have encountered the book he refers to, and I have to say one has to be a particularly sensitive Likoudiste to find it objectionable. Boring, perhaps, but objectionable?
Although parenthetically, and perhaps of more interest, I wonder how I fit into our Skeptic's Egyptological scheme when I lived there:
Continue reading "Anglos & Arabic: the bizzaro world of the MEMRIstas"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:33 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
July 12, 2008
The Arab Moderate
The Financial Times' Roula Khalaf wrote an interesting item on former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher's upcoming book, "The Arab Centre."
Khalaf's note is interesting in itself, and almost makes me want to buy Muasher's book, although I rather suspect in the end I'll learn rather little since I was hanging around in the area during Muasher's time.... The main item raised is what does "moderate" really mean when Westerners use the term vis-a-vis the Arab world. I think Khalaf and Muasher suffer from typical over-focus on one item the I-P conflict, but the point of the commentary, that moderate as a label really revolves around a core, that is accepting Israel.
I would add that speaking English (or French) well and wearing a western suit also gets one considered a moderate, or that is persons having the image of Westernisation are 'moderate.'
Continue reading "The Arab Moderate"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:20 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
July 11, 2008
The USS Liberty: It's back and . . . topically relevant!
The USS Liberty, the American intelligence ship attacked by Israeli naval and air forces in June 1967, is back in the news somewhat, and relevant to the news of the day. This assumes that this story has a true basis. Apparently the subject was raised in a meeting between US and Israeli officials. (For more Aqoul discussion on USS Liberty, go here, wherein I confess my conversion to the more-likely-a-screwup presumption.) Anyway: "According to. . . Haaretz, . . . the Liberty attack was raised in talks regarding Iran, and U.S. operations in the Middle East. . . [It] was agreed . . . that the United States and Israel would want to avoid any sort of 'mistaken confrontation' such as that which occurred when Israeli forces attacked the USS Liberty."
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:29 AM | Comments (35) | TrackBack
July 08, 2008
Maghreb-ward, Ho! Gulf investment heads into the sunset
Rudely poaching on turf far better handled by other contributors, I call attention to this article in The National of Abu Dhabi(?) which relates risk/reward considerations of Gulf investment in North Africa, particularly in real estate. Do the observations jibe with reality? Too little fear, too little greed, or too much. Or just right. A good intro for the beginner or just a superficial story? Excerpts below the fold.
Continue reading "Maghreb-ward, Ho! Gulf investment heads into the sunset"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:14 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
July 05, 2008
Dar Fur - Arabs & 'Ethnic Africans' Encore
There is something about the ongoing nonsense coverage of Dar Fur.
It is thus with some satisfaction I share the above "Arab" tribal leaders from this servicable if uneven arty in The Washington Post
The easily best quote is this (if we ignore the confusion of the Fur language speaking group with the idea of Tribe while Arab tribes are cited away (The "ethnically African" nonsense is just plain idiocy, non-Arabic speaking, fine.)):
"The problem is between Darfurians and the government -- this is not between Arabs and Africans," said Abdel Majid Ibrahim Mohamed, a prominent leader of the ethnically African Fur tribe, among the most heavily targeted by the government. "It's the government that is cooking these things up. I don't believe in this Arab and non-Arab description. There are Fur married to Arabs, so there's a social interlocking between them.""This is not a tribal conflict or ethnic conflict," the nazir concurred. "It's a conflict of interests. And we've been living together for 400 years."
Of course desertification and population explosion are non-trivial added factors.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 01, 2008
New Month, Open Commentary
Well, at least I am paying attention. Rant on. And for those of you who are interested, in Lounsbury the same exists with a perso professional anecdote.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:11 PM | Comments (27) | TrackBack
June 27, 2008
Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble
This Washington Post story nurtures the question: are the recent bubble-like oil price spikes driven by speculative runs on oil or are they driven by a fundamental growth in demand? The supply side, aka Saudi Arabia, claims the first choice and the demand side, aka America and industrialized states, claims the second. My semi-educated wild hunch is that the supply siders' 'explanation (high speculation) is closer to the truth. (UPDATE: Commenter Klaus notes a more recent Krugman column on the same subject arguing that economic fundamentals are primarily driving the price increase.)
Continue reading "Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:23 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
June 23, 2008
Syria, how we might learn to love profit (or issues in getting away from Leftist rentier exploitation)
The Financial Times has a fine article on Syria Syria see[ing the] benefits of liberalisation that is worthy of some reflexion.
A couple of quick obs up front, given that Syria is moving from an utterly basket case socialist economy (with all the usual emerging markets double talk about 'social justice' that really means protecting the ruling elite and labour elite Soviet style to the detriment of the overall economy and post-revolution or new job entrants), their challenges are major.
Giving the article a quick read, it struck me that this pseudo-liberalisation (or maybe "shopping and not entreprenurial" liberalisation) is probably the very worst form insofar as it will definitely not deliver proper growth, will boost the corrupt rentier elites (I have nothing against entrepreneurial wealth, and related forms, but rent extractors I detest - whether in the most pernicious form as governmentally enabled or via private cartels [that US libertarians tend to forget as a serious issue]).
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:52 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
June 22, 2008
Islamic Finance Bubble
A quick note, prompted by a very decent set of audio-visual summaries at FT on Islamic Finance, and a note within the presentation that the Islamic Finance industry has not been effected to date by the global credit crunch (although noting exposure to Gulf Real Estate).
It strikes me that as impressive as the growth has been in the past seven years, it corresponds rather precisely with the big Gulf boom driven by hydrocarbon prices. There is much loose talk of huge new Muslim markets, counting up the global number of Muslims - African, Asian, etc. - as potential market numbers (see the articles here). This, like your average "MENA" but really Gulf Fund, playing with regional numbers to inflate potential is utter bollocks. Much boosterism comes from the Gulf, and more from City bankers with a thin understanding of the variations in the Islamic world and the extent to which poorer markets with more liberal approaches to Islam are going to be genuinely willing to pay a premium for services (or be exposed to more risk - although that is more likely to be disguised). Perhaps worth a further discussion, but it strikes me that Islamic finance growth right now is intimiately and almost uniquely driven by asset inflation in the Gulf, that makes everything look attractive.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:18 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
June 19, 2008
KSA Gives Up Dream of Making the Desert Green
Here’s a very interesting article on the waste that the Saudi adventure of growing its own wheat has been. A few quotes:
“Within 12 years, between 1980 and 1992, wheat production grew 29-fold--from 142,000 tons in 1980 to 4.1 million tons in 1992 --making the Saudi desert the world's sixth-largest wheat exporting country.” “Between 1981 and 1993, Saudi Arabia spent a total of $225 billion out of US$420 billion in total oil revenues on defense and security. (…) Maintaining the ruling family is estimated to have cost $4 billion per annum during the 1980s, and more in later years as the family grew”“For the sixteen years between 1984 and 2000, it may be estimated that the assessable cost of Saudi agricultural development could be put at about $85 billion, representing 18 percent of the country's $485 billion in revenues from oil exports during the period. This huge investment produced wheat at an average cost of more than US$500 per ton. During the same period, the international market price for wheat averaged about $120 per ton. When the waste resulting from abandoning the newly reclaimed and irrigated lands plus four unquantified government subsidies are added, the cost might more than double.”
Continue reading "KSA Gives Up Dream of Making the Desert Green"
Posted by Shaheen at 12:55 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
June 08, 2008
To Qaeda or Not to Qaeda: Terror, Genesis & Reaction
With all apologies for the weak punditry, but with reference to Mathew's fine book review in our reviews section, an interesting article of tangential or no t so tangential relevance regarding American squabbling over whether Al Qaeda is dead or lone live Al Qaeda as a threat. One nexus point in the two discussions, radicalisation - and perhaps a certain purist ideological approach in the US as to 'real' sources.
Continue reading "To Qaeda or Not to Qaeda: Terror, Genesis & Reaction"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:11 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
June 07, 2008
News you can't choose: Items of interest
From our newsroom, discussion of a news clip (and I do mean clip) on FGM support in Egypt.
I think the foreign intelligence hinted at by inside "sources" in latest stories is the other I-word (see other stories from a few years back), and not Iran, as is being assumed.
Humankind's vital war on disliked headgear and neckwear continues as Ataturkville's high court tells girls to take it off, take it all off, since a girl or woman has a right to the integrity of her body (see FGM), except when putting a cloth on her head.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
For those of you wishing headaches, Pipes series on MENA
At the National Review, I haven't the gumption to actually go further myself. However the National Review's summary would seem to indicate he's losing the veneer on his pure bigotry to descend into batty land:
Daniel Pipes talks the odds. The chance that immigrant Muslims and indigenous Europeans find a way to live in harmony? Five percent, says Pipes. The chance that Europe becomes Eurabian, part of the Muslim world? Forty-seven-and-a-half percent. The chance that Europeans reassert control over the continent? Forty-seven-and-a-half percent, once more — and Pipes says it won’t be pretty.
Eurabia...well, I suppose if one gets that special combination of innumeracy and bigotry together, one can seriously believe that Europe is going to somehow become "Eurabia"...
[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:36 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
June 01, 2008
Martyr, She Wrote: Zawahari Slammed For Males-Only Al-Qaeda
Hell hath no fury as a wannabe mujahedah scorned, it seems. Ayman al-Zawahari's comments, that al Qaeda cannot accept female fighters, has alot of pro-al Qaeda women's abayas in a wad. Websites are full of anger over his suggestions that they should be stay-at-home moms, merely nurturing, raising and feeding the next generation of pointless mass murderers. (I don't know if Rosie the Riveter or Zenobia or Xena, Warrior Princess would approve either side in that debate.) Via Thoreau at Henley.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 AM | Comments (22) | TrackBack
May 26, 2008
On Israel & the American Empire
The Financial Times' Gideon Rachman has a useful editorial on the issue of US-Israeli FP issues. I am fundamentally tired of the subject, given the sensation there is some kind of devilish and pointless merrigoround, but this editorial reminded me that once in a not so distant past US-Israeli relations were governed by a certain rationalism. Pro-Israeli, as an ally, but rational and .... well, to be frank, defensible in the balance even in the Arab & Muslim worlds.
Link Fixed bloody whingers
The editorial reminds one that once upon a time the US had influence - in the I-P conflict, and in MENA. My own experience - in the private sector working for US connected firms leads me to agree with this:
Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank, says: “I can’t remember a time in the last half century where the US has had so little influence in the region.”
it is astounding how the tail is wagging the dog, or how little honesty and how much fear drives American policy in the region, and how much harm the Americans are doing to their long term interests (and I would argue, to sane Israeli interests...)
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 PM | Comments (36) | TrackBack
May 09, 2008
Get your Kicks / On Beirut / Sects' Dissects
An open thread for discussion of Lebanon at the crossroads . . . again. And who'd have guessed Nasrallah would provide the fireworks for Israel's 60th anniversary? Followup full posts from our expert team are welcome and encouraged, with removing the horrid tasteless lyrics allusion-pun above from its lead position as added incentive.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:26 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBack
May 07, 2008
Bread & Riots
If you follow MENA news (and indeed news generally) rising food prices, coupled with rising petrol prices, have provoked for the first time in years serious concerns about food availability to the poorer segments of the population. And demos and riots. And when mass demos occur in the Middle East and North Africa, fear of regime stability gets in the air. Serious challenges for a region where the emerging free(er) markets are yet fragile. Nevertheless, the FT's arty today, Mideast reels as hunger outgrows oil earnings is bothersome.
Perhaps the lead is what is the most irritating:
For years, food policy in the Middle East and North Africa was very simple: hydrocarbon exports paid for carbohydrate imports.
A quote that then segues into issues of the non-oil exporters. My irritation is always raised when all MENA is written about as if it were the Gulf. This is not merely sloppy, it leads people, even Sr. persons, to dangerously misconstrue developments.
Continue reading "Bread & Riots"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
May 02, 2008
Funny, She Doesn't Look Bahraini
Bahrain's possible new ambassador to the US has interesting demographics. Not all that amazing if one is familiar with the region outside of stereotypes and post-1948 tensions. Still the background of the former legislator(-tress?), if legislating is what the Shura Council does, might cause some to be unduly surprised.
MANAMA, Bahrain - The only Jewish woman lawmaker in Bahrain is a candidate to become this Persian Gulf kingdom's ambassador to Washington. . . . Huda Nono, a legislator in the Shura Council, said she was among people being considered for the post and referred further queries to the foreign ministry. . . .If Nono was appointed, Bahrain would be the first Arab country to send a high-level Jewish diplomat to Washington. . . . Nono is the first Jewish woman in the Shura Council, a 40-seat body appointed by the king that also has a Christian among its 11 female legislators. . . . Nono replaced her cousin Ibrahim Nono, who held the Shura Council seat for four years.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:33 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
April 23, 2008
Open Thread on Carter, Hamas, and Stuff
Belaboring, distatefully, the last general subject area, we turn to Jimmy Carter's statement that Hamas was ready to accept Israel at some point in some way. Hamas itself seems to disagree. To me, it appears to be a conflict of spin. Hamas will not, for ideological reasons, recognize Israel but they appear to be willing to accept a Palestinian state on 1967 borders, and say they would accept a popular referendum to honor a truce to go no further. With spin, that can be seen as de facto acceptance of the Palestinian Authority's current or future recognition of Israel. Sounds alot like China and Taiwan, actually. (Which situation can erupt at any time, but probably won't as long as mutual prosperity keeps rearing its ugly head.) Anyway, unlike the previous thread where I had a strong opinion and not much time or interest to engage, as I was asserting something obvious, here I am inactive because I have no strong opinion or time, so it is just an open thread for those interested.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:15 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
March 26, 2008
Fear & Food: MENA Inflation (Open Commentary)
I have (as our site authors can verify) a draft on the issues of dating a month - an indictment of my writing time - on this issue (generally), but sadly this has to wait for more free time. At the same time this is a hot and frankly useful topic. Thus, while I haven't done up my proper commentary, an open note on this issue I think useful.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:52 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
March 09, 2008
Favouring Religous Minorities in Emigration - MENA, US, EU & Iran
An issue without an easy answer, with respect to "what is right" as such, raised by a Washington Post arty on US favouring religious minorities in emigration from Iran which to follow the article, has drained the communities.
The essential message from the article, in grosso modo, most Xian and Zoroastrians, etc seeking to leave have largely economic motivations. Hardly news, saw everywhere really. However, the community leaders see their people being drained away (and of semi-amusing note, to a land of immorality... US of A where gays can marry [ahem, well no, but...], horrors to the priest quoted). One wonders what would happen to Iranian Sunni communities given the same chances. What is right here? Rather like the priest, one has to say, well, given a chance...
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 08, 2008
MENA & Race
Worthy of discussion and comment, a comment by Nisreen Malik in Comment is Free (The Guardian) on Race & the Arab world, from a Sudanese perspective. The comments sadly are fairly unenlightening, but certainly the issue of "race" and colour in the Arab World (or perhaps the Arab & Islamic Worlds, etc) is worthy of some reflexion. Of course nothing there is "new" in a sense, but it is good to return to such tihngs now and again.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:19 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
March 07, 2008
Saudi Arapia? Hib-hob from the Land of the 2Moskz
Over at the Washington Post, Faiza Ambah tells the tale of a Saudi hip-hop crew who dream of stardom and self-expression. Unfortunately, their Saudi parents and kinfolk are not so enamoured of these kids now performing a real-life version -- allowing for musical genre differences -- of the movie Dirty Dancing (whose own star is, incidentally and sadly, fighting for his real life).
But even as they rap in praise of Islam and their mothers, and against the war in Iraq and terrorism, their biggest hurdle has been convincing family, friends and Saudi society that they are not simply trying to imitate a decadent Western lifestyle.
Continue reading "Saudi Arapia? Hib-hob from the Land of the 2Moskz"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 02, 2008
Explosions and MENA - never mind the political bollocks
A rather overlooked article, if I am not mistaken, and certainly complementary to my last post from The New York Times on basic cost of living inflation in MENA.
While it is easy to be critical of some simplistic details in the article, never mind background economics, the reality is clear and this anecdotal article conveys it. Basic cost of living in both oil and non-oil states is escalating at rapid rates, agiven global commodity prices in food and basic goods (and, yes, energy), and that is hitting an emerging lower and proper middle class hard.
Worse, this is coming off of barely realised gains in the past 5 years (for the 'new' professional or semi-professional middle or quasi middle classes).
I don't care much for the whanking on about party political manoeuvres in any given country - but if readers want to worry, bloody well worry less about momentary ebb and flow of political liberalisation (damned bollocks if you ask me, cart before the bloody horse). Rather worry about basic cost of living inflation hitting an emerging class of people that could, with a bit of time, actually support and drive economic and secondarily political reform knocking back the rent seeking elites. This is, to be blunt, fundamentally dangerous. Micro-cosmically, a domestic driven development like this in Egypt in the 80s helped driven a minority of Egyptian 'up coming almost middle classes' into radicalism. Flat line poverty and stagnation is less dangerous, ceterius paribus, than almost comfortable people being pushed suddently into stagnation and declinging fortunes. Sadly the American Administration seems incapable of intelligently and pro-actively managing its own (self generated) economic problems, let alone global risks.
Leave aside whanking on about the Awakenings, and other Iraq rubbish - dig into the background on cost of living pressures in MENA - not optimism driving.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:33 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
February 25, 2008
Economic Development, Foreign Investment and the War on Terror
Oddly via one of my investment robots, I ran across this Op Ed from Zenpundit favourite Thomas P.M. Barnett - a Strat Studies type - on the necessity to focus on promoting growth in MENA, and imp. of FDI. More important than making things go boom.
I shall leave this open to comment. I have some own reactions, which may really resolve to quibbles, to details in the Op Ed, but it is interesting to see this argument.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:15 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
February 24, 2008
Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism
Worthy of reflexion on larger tensions between economic and political reform in MENA, Bahrain seems to be going through an awkward spot in terms of political and economic reform although it is Bush ibn Bush's Khaliji wunderkind for democratisation. Nothing surprising in this, other than perhaps the qualified support of the opposition (and even that is not terribly astounding as such, given the way publicly expressed opposition generally occurs in Monarchies).
Continue reading "Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 17, 2008
Kosovo flags & Arab Sats
A brief note, the coverage today of the Kosovo declaration / celebrations on Al Jazeerah and on Al Jazeerah was quite interesting: the actual Sat broadcasts focused quite a lot on the Kosovo-American flag pairing and US ... conditional support I suppose. Interesting imagery to be dominating the screen. The US could stand for this sort of positive imagery more often. One does not often get imagery on the Sats of hidjab wearing ladies leaning out of cars waving American flags wildly.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:37 AM | Comments (18) | TrackBack
February 01, 2008
New Month Open Commentary
We passed a rather quiet December and January, but hopefully end and beginning year moments will pass.
On the Middle East and North Africa, well, what can we say? It strikes me that on economic and political fronts we are in a transitional moment. The economic balance, relatively favourable, is changing, and political - international - is somewhat frozen waiting for a new American administration. Perhaps, though, there is more movement than I feel.
Certainly the beginning of 2008 for the Mashreq feels, in terms of Iraq and Israel-Palestine like yet more of the stumbling on without any real movement.. Lebanon teeters still, giving lie to the naive and idiotic comparisons to the idealized analogies to the idealized vision of the Ukranian events.... The Gulf, ah, well that is another situ, but oil liquidity versus dollar depreciation remains a serious tension, and otherwise, petrol dollars dope otherwise uninteresting economies. Egypt, that requires another comment, the Maghreb, fragile movement, and Algeria behaving like the museum piece it is - it is sad when the Algerian regime makes Mubarek's look relatively competent and forward looking. But then hydrocarbon liquidity allowed them to get away with an utter fiasco of a privatization process whose main message was Caveat Emptor.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:40 PM | Comments (28) | TrackBack
January 25, 2008
The Lounsbury View: US Elections and MENA
There was a comment - question or comment together really - a few days (hmm, weeks, well no matter) on the US elections pre-selection cycle and MENA coverage. Let me make a perso observation and let other commentators from region opine in comments. First, I have been far too focused on financial to pay attention to whanking on about US politics, whose importance is largely macro-political (that is late nights are not spent with Al Jazeerah on).
This being said, operationally or 'conversationally' speaking, I would say that there is but passing interest in MENA, except among those circles that may be qualified as political junkies and high enough placed to care at this stage. Now, while I circulate there, it strikes me that aside from a passing fascination (in the weakest terms) with the Obama-Clinton dogfight, this is too arcane to follow. The impatience to see the Great Incompetent out, of course is palpable in all quarters, including US.
Continue reading "The Lounsbury View: US Elections and MENA"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:49 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
January 18, 2008
Media criticism and blaming the victims
A new issue of Arab Media and Society is out, and well worth a look. I found the long article on mulid music in Egypt, basically inshad remixed as dance music, fascinating (here's their extended mulid dance party mix), and this piece on the rise and fall of London as an Arab media hub was quite good as well. Also noted without comment is my review of Al Jazeera correspondent (and ex-Marine) Josh Rushing's ghosted autobiography.
However, I want to take issue with AMS editor Lawrence Pintak's opening editorial.
Continue reading "Media criticism and blaming the victims"
Posted by tomscud at 01:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
December 29, 2007
Happy Holidays, Your Flats Flattened, Off Plan Of Course
While the headline news for "the Broader Middle East" if one accepts including Pakistan in that is certain to attract much learned and unlearned comment (1), some fundamentals of real estate market development, or lack thereof, attract my attention. Flats flattened, off plan, if I may indulge in grim humour as the death toll from a Christmas Eve apartment collapse continues to rise nearly a week after. This hearkens back to a "classic" as eerie signs it: Cairo's Collapsing Buildings. Again, a story of a collapsing block of flats, and doubtless gross underlying corruption.
However, gross corruption is not all, as without any question the heritage of Egyptian State Socialism is as much behind the sad, indeed grossly depressing tale of Egyptian economic and social development since Nasser. Under such circumstances, where secularism was historically effectively synoymous with the ded hand of the vampire state, it is no surprise American efforts at backing faux democracy trickled away into the sand in the face of the Muslim Brotherhood.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
December 28, 2007
Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work
Finally figuring out what anyone here could have told them years ago, US forces in Iraq have earned at least a B-plus in Empire-Building 101 -- not that that's a good thing, but it can salve a sore wound for an indefinite period. The principle is to use local power structures as your surrogates, basically by bribing them. This USA Today story details it well. (Thanks to a Klaus call, we have a link for the original stick-figure anti-insurgent plan offered by a later-killed US soldier here.)
Tribal sheiks . . . have seats on most of the city councils and the provincial council. . . . Many tribes run construction and trucking businesses and benefit from U.S. and Iraqi government reconstruction projects. The contracts with U.S. forces allow sheiks to hand out jobs, and thus maintain power.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 04:39 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
December 16, 2007
Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure
Not often do I get to be more right than Jim Henley, but here I claim it though I can't document my earlier growing sense that The Surge would turn out better than we cynics first expected. (The last time he was wrong, which goes back years, so was I, as when he predicted that Ariel Sharon would not go through with the Gaza withdrawal.) But now he is surprised that violence has not rebounded in Iraq since The Surge in a way he has predicted. I am far less surprised however and, although I started as a Surge Cynic as shown here, I have come to feel after more information that there has been a good chance of some sustained suppression of the violence. More on why, below.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:58 AM | Comments (28) | TrackBack
December 09, 2007
NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup
A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.
All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.
Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
December 08, 2007
Citigroup: "Arab" Capital, Need and Fear
With the good apparent news that , as FT commentator Ferguson put it, World War IV is off as the warmongering Right Bolshies in America have had their arguments castrated, and a moment on the weekend, I think it useful to take an economy moment to reflex slightly on on Citigroup's rescue by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and the effective non-reaction of the usual suspects such as congenital cretin Mr Schumer. Now, the non-reaction somewhat wrong-foots my own commentary two months ago anticipating great hysteria, but perhaps the promise to be "silent" as an FT arty put it placated the professional cretin. Or perhaps rather his handlers in NY understood Citi's shaky state and shaped the reaction, so very different than either his reaction to the investment proposed in Nasdaq or last year (2006) with Dubai Ports World (also at the opening for more explicit Schumerism).
The contrast between in particular the round up of reaction in the Schumerism link and the non-reaction to Citigroup is interesting. Fear of banking collapse and grinding halt to the queer American use of houses as credit cards perhaps partial driving explanations on the political side, but my speciality is not American politics, which I care little about except where it has MENA blow back. Unfortunately given a near decade of utter cretinism on the Americans part in this respect, this is too frequent.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:59 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
November 27, 2007
Annapolis Semi-Open Thread
In Annapolis, Maryland, USA, another round of peace efforts commences in the Great Intra-Semite Parking Space Quarrel ("You have 22 other parking spaces!"/ "Well, you're not really a car!"/"God stamped this ticket!"). It -- the conference not the quarrel -- will last for "as long as [Rice] feels there is a good, solid and productive discussion." Have at it.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:43 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
November 08, 2007
Jasim & The Argot Naughts: Why That Name in Iraq?
I come up with naught when I search memories of Eastern Mediterranean Arabs and their dialects, patois, and argots, for Jasim and variants as personal names. Yet every single flippin' story from Iraq has someone named Jasim in it. What's the deal with that? (And yes, my worst allusion-pun ever.)
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:28 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
November 07, 2007
Communicating MENA
Following a somewhat, ahem, impaired reflexion but understanding not everyone reads me Lounsbury blog, I thought it useful to raise this issue beyond our usual "Monthly Open Comment," and reflect on communicating MENA issues to the ordinary Anglo-Saxon World, the US of A being particularly important given the bombers - rather like the old dreadnoughts of yore, etc
The question that kicks us in the bloody cojones is: "What is our bloody motherfucking bloody value add?"
We can get quoted in Belgravia or chez Andrew Sullivan, but it is easy being in style or not as it were, and to lose track of the real value of a "MENA blog" - and one that bites all the hands that can feed it. If we are not delivering added value...well what is the fucking point?
For me, if we can provide a collective input that is at once local and international but neither Islamophobe nor Islamophile (to say more clearly non-partisan because personally I bloody well hate both parties - indeed to be frank, eerie and I are agreed on this point for our...Islamic Agnosticisms). If that is useful, well I am bloody well fucking happy to risk a real job. But after two years and a bit of fatigue (and staggering transfer to the Cuban rhum sector) we need insights as I have zero doubt Aqoul is interesting and unique (machallah) but...voilà.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:25 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack
November 03, 2007
Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington
I have to borrow from the discussion on the previous thread the quotation below. It's from a book review of at-best mixed value but by someone with the knowledge to make the statement. Tell me its assertion is false. Please, God, please......
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
October 24, 2007
MENA Reform: Reform is Dead, Long Live Reform
In part provoked by stunningly irritating conference call with idiots (aka known as 'funders") and in part by getting this piece of silliness emailed to me by some of the same participants, the recent naming of a government in Morocco (for which you can see some useful French commentary chez Ibn Kafka, whose 2nd home at Aqoul sadly awaits the intervention of a mystery writer coming out with a stunning review of some Somali chick...) is a moment to reflect on reform, via this flawed although not entirely useless article in FT (if one closes one's eyes to the idiocy of quoting the USFP). I will add that yes it is clear that England is clearly stringing together his series of quotables, poor bastid is a bit at sea.
First, in preface, let me say that I have long held the opinion that political reform can not really take place except when driven by economic change. At the same time, my dear Ben Ali in Tunisia shows that economic progress without political reform in our MENA region, well can go down a blind alley to be polite.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:20 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
October 07, 2007
In Defence of Liberal Society & Hijabs, Fashionable or Not
A long delayed note, as I meant to write on this during the summer, but business intervened. Nevertheless, a moment of reflexion and a strange title perhaps, given my self-confessed dislike of the hijab (as all too often ostentatious worn on the sleeve religiosity - but not always, thus one reason for the note). However our dear site mistress's note on perhaps the need for showcasing fashionable (that is to say, not self-negating nunnish habits) hijabs and the like, and a coincidental bit of to do in blogosphere about hijabs provoked some reflexion (however tardy).
I should note that it was this rather stereotypical 'oh isn't liberating the girl took off her hijab' and 'oh isn't it oppressive she put it back on' comment from an English teacher formerly in Rabat. Stereotypical of course as its the typical Western (and very secularized MENAite elite) reaction. It is also near pure bollocks as such, mistaking something between religious choice - mistaken or not - and perhaps fashion, as indicative of "liberation" or not. Sadly, fairly typical imagery. Taking off the hijab, liberation. Putting it on, Male Oppression. [fixed the bloody link as well]
[Added Reference 8 Oct:: Worthy of some reflexion, Women of Birminghamabad find identity in FT relatively recently, from its ongoing and refreshingly non-hysterical Muslims in Europe series]
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:13 AM | Comments (32) | TrackBack
October 04, 2007
USS Liberty sort-of followup: Chicago Tribune
The Chicago Tribune does a service by giving the USS Liberty-attack veterans a full say. As I discussed many weeks back, the case deserves full fresh investigation. At the time, I shared my own developing conviction that it was more likely than not a case of culpable mistaken identity rather than a willful attack on an American ship (at least when it was ordered). The article erodes that conviction somewhat -- I'll downgrade mistaken identity from "buy" to "hold" -- but essentially the attack-with-foreknowledge argument often goes back to the same flaw: the belief that merely by defeating the "innocent mistake" claims by Israel and Fans, the only other conclusion is Israeli foreknowledge of the ship's American-ness before the attack began.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:41 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
October 02, 2007
Victory of Image and Capital: Emirates & Hollywood
Quite frankly while not entirely surprising, the Time Warner - Abu Dhabi Entertainment Hub (or city in Dubai parlance) does not strike me as a match made in heaven.
On one hand the Emirates are sucking in a certain kind of talent, but I have a hard time believing that the cost issues in the Emirates plus the lack of a vibrant real culture, a salon and artists culture as it were, can make this anything but "a 6,000 acre theme park" rather than a space "to produce Arabic-language film, TV and video games" (well maybe video games, although I still imagine doing video game Arabization is likely cheaper to do in say Cairo or even better Amman, although maybe one puts HQ in Abu Dhabi for money raising purposes).
But that the idea is being floated speaks to the problems of getting investment off the ground and also, ahem, doing business in much of the region.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:42 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
September 22, 2007
America's Crusade to Drive Away Arabo-Muslim Investment
Senator Schumer, ignoramus and fear-mongerer at large whose understanding of Dubai, whore entrepot of the Gulf, is that it's Al Qaeda central: "Dubai has been cited as a nexus for terrorist financing and money laundering and a 'potential crossroads' for shipping and trading linked to Iran's drive to obtain nuclear materials and technology"
Evidently despite representing New York, his literacy in matters financial is also terribly limited (or he merely is one of those Phobics post 11 Sep who are smart enough to dress up their fear of all things Islamic in other clothes), for Dubai taking a stake in NASDAQ really means fuck all (other than they're likely to be soaked just like the Japanese were in their Rockefeller Centre / NY buying spree...).
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
September 13, 2007
Iran War On the Way: More Evidence
It appears that I may have been right to call attention to those saying a war on Iran is being rolled out by the Administration. An informed and expert source in DC affirmed it to me as well a few days back. And it looks like the usual suspect sources are now marketing it. (Love the part where we can mysteriously tell that the Germans really want us to attack even as they back away from sanctions against Iran. Saying "no" when they really mean "yes", those Teutonic teases!) Michael Ledeen appears to be the one whose job is to incite the converted; he who says that al-Qaeda and Iran are interchangeable terms and at one point called Dubai, an "Iranian colony". Man, all them dang camel jockeys are the same and interchangeable, and that thinking is how one manufactures a war. Anyway, Aqoulites and Aqoulite wannabes with Iran-specific knowledge are needed to weigh in, now and in the future.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:19 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack
September 09, 2007
Quick Roundup of News on Roundups
{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)
Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)
Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.
And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
September 07, 2007
Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day
Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."
Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"
In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
September 03, 2007
Dar Fur: Not So Simple as Arabs attacking "Blacks"
As longer-term readers of Aqoul know, I have rather long been beating away at a point re Dar Fur: that the nice little story packaged up for college activists and Islamo / Arabophobes re Dar Fur fundamentally mis-characterises tribal resource war as genocide and that the real story is desertification and excessive population pressure on an environment that can't support the combination of population lifestyles and numbers. And that the simplistic narrative of Black Africans versus Arabs (imagined to be people looking rather like Saudis, rather than the said Arab elders in the photo... who are rather obviously Arabised locals of a most "Black" genotype....)
The New York Times in a generally decent article, Chaos in Darfur on Rise as Arabs Fight With Arab makes me point, if belatedly. Of course, it contains certain idiocies, such as referring to Arab tribes in the plural but the Fur as a single tribe - they are of course a linguistic group about as much a single tribe as "the Arabs." Which is to say, they are tribes, plural. The article is very much worth a read and promotion. As I am an optimist by nature, perhaps it can help correct some of the delirious whanking on about Arab genocide on the Blacks, and maybe refocus on the real tragedy of an ecological and economic catastrophe and a spiral of destruction as clan and tribal warfare becomes bloodbaths via guns (not that history of the Maori should be forgotten in reminding one and all this is hardly a new phenomena).
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:50 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
September 02, 2007
Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?
The informed blogosphere and newsosphere are abuzz with rumors* that a US war, or a sustained attack (i.e.war), on Iran is being put out for aggressive marketing by Administration innards this week. Events will prove this true or false. Regardless of the rightness or wrongness of such a thing, if it is being planned, I do wonder if the questions and considerations below have been addressed.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack
Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows
My favourite newspaper, as a running dog of an anglo saxon ultra liberale as the francophones like to style me (well except the running dog part, it not being in the idioma) The Financial Times has a fine series on Remittances, or in more ordinary language, money sent home by 3rd Worlders working outside of home country.
Funny these terms. Leaving this aside, remittances is quite a hot topic in the financial world, both in policy and in the money making parts, because the volumes are huge and our grubby little minds always think there must be ways to do interesting things with cash flows. More prosaically, the development people are all atwitter that:
In many developing countries today, more money comes from remittances than from foreign aid, foreign investment or even traditional exports. In Central America, remittances have long eclipsed traditional agricultural mainstays such as coffee and bananas. Migrants send more money to Morocco than tourists spend there. In some small countries – Lebanon, Serbia, Haiti, Tonga, Albania and Jamaica are all examples – remittances generate more revenues than all merchandise exports put together. The latest World Bank figures list 14 countries where migrants’ earnings account for 15 per cent or more of economic output, ranging from Moldova with 38 per cent to Jamaica with 16.4 per cent.
So there must be ways to make this money work better than merely supporting consumption, they say!
On the other side, and this is particularly true for marginally financially literate American government officials, there is this huge obsession with hawala (their mot phare, having just learned it, and thinking it applicable everywhere in - what do they call it, the silly little American provincials, BMENA or GMENA (Broader / Greater MENA), (1) and transfers (informal or otherwise) as terror financing. Apparently insensible to the data indicating nothing much in the way of money laundering as such has been involved in al Qaeda acts despite much fevered talk.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
August 27, 2007
Economic Development, Risk Taking & Culture (or excessive attention to culture)
Taking cue from from my own Lounsbury comment, a slightly modified and updated set of thoughts on this IHT article: Egypt searches for a balance that rewards risk-takers while valuing the past, although as I said on The Lounsbury, to be fair it is an AP article.
While it has aspects of breathless gullibility, it's not without a discussion of evolving business culture...or aspirations of evolving business culture. But in advance of my comments, a few thoughts.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:11 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
August 25, 2007
Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place
I must say something nice about the Washington Times, which normally has MENA-related fare along the lines of FoxNews and this type of swill. I saw this story a short time back of a travel-writer's visit to Syria in the dead-wood version, but not online. Now I see it is online. Amazingly, the writer actually seems to have taken note of the place and reported it and experienced what normal travelers there would notice, although one might find it too saccharine for its non-comments on the ubiquitous Leader & Family photos, or the pervasive poverty. Still, entitled sincerely and without guile The Kindness of Syrians, it is well done and refreshingly rooted in relevant reality; excerpts for you link-avoiders below the break. (Elsewhere on deeper questions of wealth and poverty, AbuFares has this to say; more on that at another time. Now back to the W. Times.)
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 15, 2007
MENA, Credit Crunches, Sovereign Funds & Fear Mongering: Expanded Thought
Expanding on an earlier Lounsbury post or three, that is the preceding on Lounsbury on Credit Crashes & MENA as well as a brief note on what I expect to be a source of fear mongering (although I may be wrong), a few thoughts on the credit melt-down and MENA. Brief and semi-stale.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:13 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
August 13, 2007
A Cheney is only as strong as the weakest link
This American Enterprise Institute resident's expert comments, from circa 1994, are making the rounds, as well they should. Perhaps no one in the current Administration had encountered these thoughts, during the buildup to the Iraq invasion.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
August 12, 2007
Blacklisting little tiny radical groups
The first thing that came to mind in reading that that the Americans have "blacklisted" a little radical group in a Leb refugee camp was "oh my, I guess they won't be able to launder any assets through buying discounted mortgage assets.... Well, actually that's not true, my first thought was "why do they bother?"
I have no doubt it took more expenditure on the part of the Americans to go through the process, than this little marginal group has ever seen. Freezes their assets.... for a group of flea-like importance relative to US interests. In the Americans fixation in a Comintern / Soviet type threat, they descend into comical acts; wasteful as well.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
August 10, 2007
Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples
The recent elections in Lebanon (or Leb Land as I like to style it) produced an interesting result although not one of such great surprise, except to perhaps the Tottens and Friedmans of the world, that is, the blow-back of incompetence and utterly delusional policy based on wishful thinking and unresolved contradiction on the part of the Great Power.
The NY Times article is a solid enough and illustrative of some issues long discussed here at Aqoul, notably the severe contradiction between American (but not only American, Western in general) "promotion" of democracy, and inattention to tied-in policies; never mind inability to take an appropriately rational "who's the best long-term bet for our fundamental interests" analytical view of potential allies in region - including the Islamists.
[It has been pointed out in comments that my comments on the article are undermined by the dodginess of the article premise - in particular the reality of the American connexion impact. As I am not watching Leb Land politics with great caution or interest, I'll simply issue this mea culpa for being suckered into ranting on too little basis. This being noted there is much other commentary remaining]
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:37 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
August 05, 2007
Honor Off Her: Fadlallah Fatwas Honor-Killing Out of {Shia} Islam
The practice of hyperpatriarchal societies of murdering suspect sexually-impure females, known as honor killing, and prevalent in the MENA region, in the ME far more than the NA parts, has been ruled unIslamic by Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, Lebanon's leading Shiite Muslim figure. (This has appears to me a bit underreported, though to their semi-credit the story is noted by the creepshow bigots at Jihadwatch who then go on to argue that a fatwa against honor killings isn't really a fatwa against honor killings, because well, you know, it, um, well , it, anyway it makes sense to ignorant hate-spewers who claim to "get it" about Muslims, unlike us poor "dhimmis".) The fatwa, as some coverage notes but others in comments report differently, is not replicated much in Sunni circles to date. An analogy may be to southern American Christians who accomodated race-segregation even when some religious were not in favor, out of fear of public prejudice in favor of the practice. In any event, the fatwa's a cool thing, and it did not require the efforts of Irshad Manji. As far as I can tell, no comment by Ayaan Hirsi Ali on this, possibly because it doesn't compute?
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:48 PM | Comments (37) | TrackBack
July 31, 2007
Weapons for Everyone
As you might already have read, the United States has announced a massive arms package covering Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf countries. Guardian columnist Brian Whitaker, a Middle East expert, believes the deal is a bad idea, as it will inflame Sunni-Shia tensions throughout the region. While I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Whitaker, I must respectfully disagree with him and say I consider the deal a good idea overall.
Continue reading "Weapons for Everyone"
Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:36 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack
July 25, 2007
Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Stability and Investment
Some time back a good friend of mine in the Maghrebine banking community asked me my thoughts on what would happen if The Parti la Justice et le Développement (Justice & Development Party), the moderate Islamist party in Morocco won the upcoming elections - as they would clearly do in any free election, from an investment flow point of view. Or more succinctly - would people like me take money out of the market, re-balance to Tunisia, etc.
My answer was "depends" - although Moroccan politics is not something I follow terribly closely, PJD actually in the economic sphere has always struck me as being fairly economically liberal (given the francophone and Arab world benchmarks that is) - and I opined that us Anglo Saxon investors would actually like to see a government with better roots and thus probably better ability to move economic liberalisation forward. I was worried, though, that this answer might be too me. I submit, then, the results of the Turkish elections and London's reactioin as partial indication my gut read is on target.
(See also Abu Aardvark's thoughts on Arab world reaction to the elections and in particular re the pseudo-secularist "Moderates")
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:17 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack
July 23, 2007
MENA Business, Liquidity, Speculation, Fatwas and Egyptian Belly Dancing
Being bored on the TGV, some time to catch up on comments. In this instance on various MENA economy items that caught my eye in the past month.
So, some quick reactions to the massive amount of liquidity flowing about the region now, and globally, and fatwas on IPOs. Sorry no actual Egyptian dancing as such, but the investment equivalent with Ministry of Finance blithering on.
(edited formatting 23/7/07 18h00 GMT+2)
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:25 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBack
July 22, 2007
Dubai's New Erection Penetrates Foe China Entry's Position
Why are you looking at me like that? Stop it. The internal structure of the new under-construction Burj Dubai tower has just passed the height of the rival entry in the world's tallest building competition, Taiwan-Republic of China's Taipei 101 tower. The Burj is now 1,667 feet (sorry, I don't do metric). The question: is there any value or significance to such structures? It looks horrible at this stage; is the final version decent? And no. The caption wrote itself. Grow up. (Update: Taipei 101 - I think it's ugly too.)
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:45 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
July 12, 2007
Tunisia & Women's Rights: Real Developments?
I turn this issue over to a better-informed readership. A Globalist article argues that Tunisia provides a real regional model for a legislative and public policy system that would protect the rights and hopes of women in home and professional life, and do so consistent with religious sentiment and scholarship. "What really sets Tunisia apart from other Arab countries and most majority-Muslim states," Andrea Barron writes, "are its policies on marriage, divorce, child support, abortion, honor crimes and domestic violence. After all, what does it matter if a woman can attend university, own her own business and run for political office if she cannot choose her own husband and be free from violence perpetrated by her own family members?" So, are the benefits in Tunisian women's legal rights genuinely real; if so, have they been a cause or the effect of social changes? And where does the, ahem, not quite freedom-loving/democratic nature of the Ben Ali government fit in to all this, if at all?
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:21 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
July 03, 2007
UK Muslims & Reaction: A voice of reason and not whinging victimhood
Very briefly given limited time, I draw attention to a very good arty by Asim Siddiqui in The Guardian that very properly takes on the mealy mouthed response and whinging victimhood whining of rather too much of the UK Muslim community (and professional Muslim activists - of course I am generally contemptuous of activists as a general matter). [Added: I would also recommend this: My plea to fellow Muslims: you must renounce terror]
Some particular highlights that I think key:
The events of the last few days have been sobering for us all. The response from some UK Muslim groups (influenced by Islamist thinking) is still largely to blame foreign policy (undoubtedly an exacerbating influence but not the cause), rather than marching "not in my name" in revulsion against terrorist acts committed in Islam's name. By blaming foreign policy they try to divert pressure off themselves from the real need to tackle extremism being peddled within. Diverting attention away from the problems within Muslim communities and blaming others - especially the west - is always more popular than the difficult task of self-scrutiny. ... so long as the world is presented as one where the west is forever at war with Islam and Muslims there is nothing we can do to appease the terrorists and those who share their world view. Instead it is this extremist world view that must change.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:34 PM | Comments (88) | TrackBack
June 18, 2007
Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath
Monty Python's Life of Brian meets real life as this woman gets to speak in public as if she knows what she is talking about. Saracen-slayer Ayaan Hirsi Ali was speaking at the National Press Club and I accidentally heard it on the radio. At first I didn't know who it was until a stream of simple-minded inanities about Islam versus the West narrowed it down fast. No transcript available, only memory, but I had to belly-laugh and nearly spew as she explained Islam's rigidly came from the fact that it takes its Scriptures as literal and divinely authored unlike, um, Christianity. In the Christian Scriptures, she explained, the books are not fixed as being written by God, but are said to be written "by people . . . like Paul . . . and Deuteronomy." (That's exactly what I heard, folks.) What an expert guide for us on religion and progress! O, why did I have to be a Monty Python fan?
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:30 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
June 16, 2007
Gaza Stripped: Two Demi-Quasi-States, One People
It appears the folks who rather justly complain of having no country, now appear to have two. Well, three, if you count the old Likudnik view of Jordan. Or in the negative numbers, if reality functions as a point of reference.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:59 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack
June 05, 2007
USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly.
Among the Mideast Six-Day War's 40th anniversary issues will be the June 8, 1967 attack by Israeli military forces on the USS Liberty, an American naval intelligence ship. In international waters near Egypt's Sinai peninsula, the vessel was torpedoed by Israeli Navy vessels, following repeated strafings/napalmings by Israeli Air Force planes. A special remembrance was held at the Navy Memorial (7th and Penn) in DC on June 8. Despite my own newer conclusion that the incident was indeed a result of Israeli errors, rather than an assault with foreknowledge of the ship's American nationality, I do think the incident should receive long overdue U.S. public investigation and hearings .
Continue reading "USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly."
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 AM | Comments (27) | TrackBack
May 23, 2007
Keep your Sunni side up: Lebanon conspiracy theory #637
Seymour Hersh propounds this conspiracy theory of sorts regarding the rise of Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon. I don't buy it offhand, but there's plausibility in a Saudi role in promoting Sunni anti-Shiite counterweights, with US winks and nods. Any takers?
What I was writing about was sort of a private agreement that was made between the White House, we're talking about Richard -- Dick -- Cheney and Elliott Abrams, one of the key aides in the White House, with Bandar. And the idea was to get support, covert support from the Saudis, to support various hard-line jihadists, Sunni groups, particularly in Lebanon, who would be seen in case of an actual confrontation with Hezbollah -- the Shia group in the southern Lebanon -- would be seen as an asset, as simple as that....There is a supreme overwhelming fear of Hezbollah and we do not want Hezbollah to play an active role in the government in Lebanon and that's been our policy, basically....
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (42) | TrackBack
The never ending list of new bans in Islamic finance
Before I mention this amusing theoretical case of a usurious zero interest rate, a few comments about today’s FT Alphaville’s entry on Islamic finance:
Islamic finance - based on a strict interpretation of the Koran that bans the use of interest in transactions
Usury. The Quran bans usury. What the Quran explicitly bans isn’t the topic of the Islamic finance debate. It’s whether any amount of interest constitutes usury.
Concepts such as derivatives and hedge funds, for example, are considered particularly controversial, given the Koran’s ban on gharar (speculation).
Ben Smith, the author of this entry really needs to get his info outside Tora Bora, because there’s no such ban whatsoever in the Quran. The discussion about gharar comes from some hardly known jurisprudence, and it's not even a prohibition. Even the obscure ramblings of those yawn provoking troglodytes have a more nuanced (well, confused) view on it than the one presented above.
Continue reading "The never ending list of new bans in Islamic finance"
Posted by Shaheen at 12:31 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
May 20, 2007
Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Foundation
You won’t see me taking my hat off for Arab leaders often, but one has to render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's. Sheikh Al-Maktoum’s initiative of creating a sizeable educational fund is an excellent one. Though there are chances this will just be another isolated initiative, one’s wishful thinking would lead to hoping for more investment into education and research throughout the region.
Continue reading "Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Foundation"
Posted by Shaheen at 02:11 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
May 15, 2007
MEMRI Again: Subtle distortions, lies, and videotape
Although I haven't the time for a long discussion, I think it worthy of discussion here Brian Whitaker's item on MEMRI's distortion on the Palestinian TV item.
Well, it's an agitprop operation. Works well, sadly.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:37 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack
May 10, 2007
On the failure of Liberals in the Arab World
I’ll use Liberal in both its classic and modern Anglo-Saxon meaning here. The previous thread’s comments gave me some neuron crunching about this issue. Socialism, from the 50s to the 80s, and Islamism afterwards, are perhaps the two ideologies which mostly shaped Arab thought during the second half of the 20th century.
The socio-economic variables are clearly an indicator on how radical one can be in support of those political lines. But it’s interesting to note that those ideologies enjoy support even among people who otherwise aren’t poor, are educated, and tend to be socially quite loose.
I’ll focus on one reason that has a huge weight in determining political orientations: national causes.
Continue reading "On the failure of Liberals in the Arab World"
Posted by Shaheen at 05:22 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack
May 09, 2007
Why Israel is doing Arabs a favor by ignoring the Arab Peace Initiative
Because Arabs can score some PR points out of it, but would face the tough issue of dealing with it if they had to sit and really negotiate it. Or worse, find some formula about refugees that one of our duces would think is a face saving one and come to have to actually implement it. Of course, if we were smarter, it wouldn’t be a tough point at all. But see, in negotiations, we’re idiots.
I know this entry comes a bit late, the Arab Peace Initiative has been put back on the table several weeks ago already, but I felt inspired by a recent discussion of it with a concerned friend. At the beginning of the Oslo process, when Israelis were sending delegations of the finest international law and negotiations experts, Palestinians were sending teams of little bullies, thinking that the kafya military green wearing Sopranos would be as good with their brains as they are with their muscles.
Continue reading "Why Israel is doing Arabs a favor by ignoring the Arab Peace Initiative"
Posted by Shaheen at 12:50 AM | Comments (16) | TrackBack
May 07, 2007
Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union
Sarkozy’s proposal of a Mediterranean Union have been discussed a lot by French media, but with little substance. The fact is, there aren’t many details in the proposal anyway. From his party’s website:
Je favoriserai le développement des pays pauvres, en cessant d’aider les gouvernements corrompus, en mettant en place une Union méditerranéenne avec les pays du SudI will favor the development of poor countries, by stopping aid to corrupt governments, by creating a Mediterranean Union with southern countries
Since most countries of the South happen to be Arab and corrupt regimes, I wonder how his pro-colonial, pro-Israeli, “anti-corrupt” attitude is going to help him cooperate in building any kind of union with them.
Continue reading "Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union"
Posted by Shaheen at 02:54 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
May 05, 2007
The Forex Wall
I’ve hit it again. The Lounsbury and I have had a brief exchange about this some time ago, and I just discussed it with a Moroccan acquaintance. The guy’s an accountant. Morocco or Tunisia, to quote only those examples among many other Arab countries, impose trade restrictions when it comes to foreign currencies.
The argument I’m given in support for those restrictions is invariably the same: everyone will rush to buy foreign currencies, and the country will have a shortage of it. That such an argument comes from an accountant is puzzling. It totally ignores the fact that markets would automatically balance that demand. If some little buddy is ready to sell his house for a couple of euros, then he must be a moron of epic proportions. And if one’s worried about the resulting exchange rate, then there definitely are ways to control them through market mechanisms.
Continue reading "The Forex Wall"
Posted by Shaheen at 01:11 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
April 28, 2007
France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy
As per The Lounsbury's suggestion, and following Ibn Kafka's extensive coverage of French elections, here are my two cents about them, Beurs, France and the MENA region and related economic bits.
Sunday's [May 6th] second round will most probably bring Sarkozy to French presidency. I have to say I'm very mixed up about this election. This round's vote is a matter of either gambling on Sarkozy, and risking what happened with Arab Americans, who happen to have voted George Bush in 2000, or choosing an economically destructive but marginally more risk averse community-wise choice with Segolene.
Continue reading "France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy"
Posted by Shaheen at 04:21 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
April 26, 2007
Finance 101 for Muslims
It is sad to say this, but finance is to today’s Muslims what medicine or astronomy was to medieval Europeans. I’m so sick of coming across people condemning themselves to poverty because they decided to follow the widespread confusion promoted by ulemas who are criminally ignorant about finance and even about traditional Islamic jurisprudence itself. So here, I decided to write this intro to finance in the hope that it will enlighten at least some of the Muslims who are hesitant when it comes to dealing with interests.
I’ll try to make it as simple as possible and will avoid circus monkeys jargon, sometimes even overly simplifying for clarity’s sake. It’s for lay people, so finance geeks look away, or your eyes are going to hurt. This is very long, so here are the sections:
I The law of gravity: supply and demand
II Money’s just an asset
III The time value of money
IV Risk
V Putting it together: interest rates
VI You do want that loan: why borrowing is necessary
VII The fallacies behind Islamic finance
VIII Islamic jurisprudence and the case of the last Caliphate
IX Pass it on
Continue reading "Finance 101 for Muslims"
Posted by Shaheen at 03:12 AM | Comments (29) | TrackBack
April 06, 2007
My Inner Neocon & Iran's Shatt Across the Bow
No, I don't want us or Britain to go to war with Iran. Heck, I'm a "cut and runner" on Iraq from before it happened. But am I the only one not of neoconnish-hawkish outlook who is a little perturbed that uniformed professional British sailors and Marines, engaged in lawful patrolling and probable legitimate intelligencing, roll over and "confess"? (Side note to antiwar folks: the coalition presence is now lawful, regardless of other moral or prudential non-rectitude.) Civilians, I understand. Me, I'll give away your social security number when faced with a nail clipper. But what happened to stiff upper lip; name, rank and serial number? If they were tortured or threatened I won't judge, but at least I'd want to know. UPDATE: Rolling over does make a little more sense after these revelations of mock executions, etc..
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:49 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack
April 05, 2007
Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town
Youssef Boutros Ghali, Egypt's Minister of Finance, will be giving his take -- perhaps a bad choice of words -- on the economy of Nile-dom right here in Potomac River City, aka Washington D.C., on Thursday, April 12 (reserve at the CATO Institute by 11 April). Full details are below the break, and here, the most important of which is "Cato Forums and luncheons are free of charge." D.C area Aqoulites are required to go, if they are below 32 and in any kind of University. Meanwhile, informed comments from all on the subject, including from our own regional finance hyperinformed but Masrophobic resident Id, are welcome.
Continue reading "Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:16 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
March 29, 2007
The Madness of King George & The Terror of the Fearful Jacobin Republic
An anectdotal reflexion on recent MENA anti-American developments prompted by a somewhat amusing discussion with an American financial sector consulting friend of mine about his recent work in the Middle East and the "shocking" levels of anti-American sentiment as compared to only 3 or 4 years ago. This fellow, of a conservative East Coast background nevertheless has had enough of in region experience prior to the Right Bolshevik Coup to have seen the precipitious decline in American image in region (and elsewhere of course).
What I found interesting was his recitation of leading and very connected American educated financial sector (most of whom I know more or less well) figures whose views had shifted from pro-American to anti, reflecting various levels of frustration. What was most peculiar in this conversation was that I cannot recall a similarly structured one - that is veering off from business to American politics.
(apologies on the title, it is late, I have much work still to do, and much rhum drunk)
link fixed 30 March
Continue reading "The Madness of King George & The Terror of the Fearful Jacobin Republic"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
March 28, 2007
Ah, the Ironies: Saudi King laments failures in the Arab world
In part merely to push down the bizarre bit of something about myself (the point and content of which still escape me, but also as Roula Khalaf of the FT has captured an example of a tiny departure from the usual pointless navel gazing whankery that passes for MENA politics, although this of the not unheard of (indeed not that unusual in the end) self-flagellation variety, which in some ways is more interesting that the Egyptian State engaging in an entirely predictable stomping on of the Opposition, now that they know the incoherent pretencions of the current American government are not even actionable among the True Believers, the Right Bolshevik wing of American policy and its Trotskytesque delusionalism. Our dear (and rather more productive than the lazy scum who pretend to be posters here) Abu Aardvark has more stomach for this sort of predictable bother than I.
Above all when I need to close a deal.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:54 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
February 18, 2007
Eunuchs & Islam, or Andrew Sullivan's Gullibility
Possibly alone among my fellow authors, I have a soft-spot for the moderately incoherent Andrew Sullivan, despite his fundamental gullibility and superficiality so common to editorialists, illiteracy in science and economics, and tendency to dip into the well of accidental bigotry with respect to race and non-Western things. His general philosophy is close enough to my own that I generally read around the inanities.
Today, in amusing myself reading the blog I stumbled across this in which in typical editorialist fashion he regurgitates some utterly idiotic bigotry from a reader, without bothering to fact check, who claimed:
The Koranic reference to "slaves not attracted to women" is not meant to be interpreted as gay people, but rather to eunuchs. Just another traditional practice from the folks who brought us 9/11.
Charming. Even more charming that he quotes it as a "correction" to his almost as rubbish-quality "reflecting" on Arab sexuality and women.
Continue reading "Eunuchs & Islam, or Andrew Sullivan's Gullibility"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:29 AM | Comments (72) | TrackBack
February 12, 2007
Imperial map of the Middle East
Fascinating Flash animation of all the waves of empire across the Middle East from 1450bc to the present day, from Maps of War. Click the image to view it.
Posted by secretdubai at 12:19 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
January 16, 2007
Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?
A new project, wikileaks.org is out of the bag, ahead of schedule. News leaked of the new site's proposal to unite international cybernerd expertise with political dissidence to create a place where persons can safely post leaked government documents with minimal fear of direct detection. The technical feasability and security value I know not, but here is where they provide basic info, with link to a sample of a leaked document allegedly from the Somali Islamic Courts movement. For MENA-watchers, or more probably US-MENA watchers, it may be a site to keenly watch.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:55 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
January 14, 2007
War with Traditional Islam
An interesting blog post from military specialist and commentator Col. Pat Lang (a real colonel, unlike my old Col appellation, a mere shortening of my name) on War Against the Boogey Men, critiquing the American approach to the Iraq war and the larger engagement with the Middle East.
The item that caught my eye was this:
"Freedom" and "Islamic Fascism" clearly have "special" meanings here. I say that "freedom" as the bushies use the term is code and really means westernization and "globalization" in the sense that we want to see the world "ironed out" flat so the it meets the egregious Friedman's dream of a homogeneous world. "Islamic Fascism" means, I think, simply "Islam." That is, Islam as it has been understood by millennia of Muslims. That is, as an all encompassing view of the world and man's relationship to God. "Ah, but these are not real Muslims," I can hear the outcry now. Rubbish. We non-Muslims can not dictate to any particular group of Muslims what Islam means to them. We want an Islam similar in its role in life to the emasculated role that Christianity plays for most Americans in their lives? Sorry! We do not get to choose for them. There wil be a reaction to what I have written here. It will be similar to the outrage vented on me by a former congressman from the Midwest who went on and and on about the nice ladies who come to his office to tell him that Muslims are a peaceful lot. Peaceful? Yes? Within limits.My analysis leads me to the belief that we are fighting against traditional Islam.
Emphasis added.
Continue reading "War with Traditional Islam"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:06 PM | Comments (77) | TrackBack
January 05, 2007
Cheap Outrage and Pretend Concern
Reading over the liberal (libertarian) blog, Hit & Run at Reason.com I was disappointed, although not particularly surprised to find a rather badly distorted reaction to Brian Whitaker's generally excellent work on gayness/homosexuality in MENA, Unspeakable Love, which Aqoul had the pleasure and privilege to review before publication.
Comments in particular showed much cheap outrage (one rather doubts any commentator had even read an accurate summary of Whitaker, given the content of comments) and faux concern for gays in the Islamic/Arab world.
Continue reading "Cheap Outrage and Pretend Concern"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:22 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
January 01, 2007
The Aqoul New Year Post
A hoary Lounsbury / Aqoul tradition, we start every new month, and new year, with a general post inviting feedback, commentary, complaint, observations, and the like. Likely to be duly ignored, but regardless, as the last year closed with Saddam being mistaken for a sheep going to sacrifice (understandably so of course) and the Iraqi government (or shall we say, the Shia Ruling Factions) gratuitiously underlining Shia-Sunni divide by executing said sheep on the Iraqi Sunni Eid el Adha (the Iraqi Shia declaring Eid a day later, oddly like the Maghreb), we might invite speculation on 2007 and what it holds for MENA.
Of course, with rumors of Americans compounding their errors in blindly reacting to the mere term "Islamist", and siding with the "ex"-Marxist Ethiopian dictatorship and the corrupt warlords in Somalia, one can expect that the future is not so bright that one would want shades...
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:26 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack
December 30, 2006
Eid Mubarek and Economics
On the occasion of wishing, to the extent I am capable of such, readers Happy Holidays, Eid Mubarek and similar canned sentiments, a quick suggestion.
For the Islamic world, the Eid is a great time to reflect on the current inefficiencies in the markets, on why one can't do haouli forward contracts for an Eid delivery on a sheep, and generally on how consumption spikes in MENA reveal failures in the subsidies systems.
You might take time to reflect if an Islamic MBA would help introduce such ideas into conservatives venues, or ask what private investment may actually be doing. Regardless, the region is tipping on the edge of catastrophe due to the Americans' incompetence, but I remain hopefull that other trends, like massive amounts of capital and investment will tide things over.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:27 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
December 14, 2006
Attending Holocaust Denial Conference Might Be Career-Limiting
The Tehran conference has drawn widespread condemnation for its roster of infamous attendees and controversial position on the Holocaust. Certainly any academic with half a brain wouldn't be caught dead at one of Ahmedinejad's little soirees, as demonstrated by the brewing intellectual slapfight between Alan Dershowitz and Norman Finkelstein. Using evidence from a neo-nazi website, Dershowitz insinuated that his academic nemesis not only attended, but would fit right in because he "has allied himself closely with the Holocaust denial movement by trivializing the suffering of its victims and denying that many of them were victims at all." Our man Richard Silverstein summarizes the story and casts doubt on Dershowitz's conclusion by noting that a) Finkelstein's own parents narrowly escaped the Holocaust, making denial a bit difficult and b) he was testifying at a federal trial in Chicago during the conference.
The motive behind this accusation is clear: legitimate academics who attend Holocaust conferences with David Duke and his ilk may experience slight credibility loss among peers. Rather like evolutionary biologists presenting papers at a conference of Creationists, I suppose.
Continue reading "Attending Holocaust Denial Conference Might Be Career-Limiting"
Posted by eerie at 11:46 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack
December 08, 2006
Surprising, the talent attracted: USG staffing in Iraq & MENA
I am generally uninterested in the new US Gov report on their self-made fiasco in Iraq, as it will likely be lost in the navel gazing party political whanking in the US -with all the aspects of a neo-Bolshevik circular firing squad - but in perusing published commentary I was struck by the following quote from a Washington Post arty (struck but not inherently surprised):
The report is replete with damning details about the administration's inept handling of Iraq. It notes, for instance, that only six people in the 1,000-person embassy in Baghdad can speak Arabic fluently. It recounts how the military counted 93 acts of violence in one day in July, when the group's own reexamination of the data found 1,100 acts of violence. "Good policy is difficult to make when information is systematically collected in a way that minimizes discrepancy with policy goals," the report says.
At this late stage in the game it is indeed striking that the US still can not mobilise sufficient human resources of quality and proper qualifications.
Continue reading "Surprising, the talent attracted: USG staffing in Iraq & MENA"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:44 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
November 29, 2006
US & Iraq: Imbecilic Navel-Gazing as Strategy
I read and was told that the major US media (or to adopt the childishly imbecilic Neo-Bolshevik speak of the American blogs, "Mainstream Media") has finally gotten around to calling the Iraqi civil war, a civil war. I rather foolishly thought that this might be welcomed among the more cogent and cogniscent corners of online commentary as a breath of fresh air and a good point of departure for actually bloody well tackling the disaster looming in front of the US of A, rather than childishly whinging on about terminology and pretending if only they don't bloody admit how bad it is, some magical intervention will somehow rescue them from the now inevitable disaster. I do say invevitable, for the Americans have already lost - as the Soviets already had two or three years before they could bring themselves to admit it.
But no. Rather, even into the center regions of the American Whankatariat, idiotic, droolingly cretinous idiotic denial, and simple minded self regarding idiocy is the result. The essential objection as far as I can tell (once I peel away the piss-poor half-informed and 1/4 understood history of Shia and Sunni, of Arab and Kurd - typical "they've always been" rubbish) - is that calling a spade a spade may lead the US to flee the field.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:24 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack
November 22, 2006
MENA Moving Forward: Policy Shifts
This is something of an open thread, but motivated by my sensation that the there may be (on the margin) some meaningful reorientation of American policy, which for better or worse (often both) is a key external driver in the region, I thought we might have some thoughts on subjects worth discussing regarding future MENA developments. I personally have the penchant for the economic, but understand it is not of general interest.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
November 11, 2006
Arab Media: Al Jazeera Newspaper
Likely lost in the American elections noise and the Israeli Gaza invasion, an interesting item reported in the FT among other sources on Al Jazeera planning a competitor to the hoary old pan-Arab dailies, Al Hayat (my personal favourite), Asharq Al Awsat (All Saudi views, all the time...) and of course Al Quds Al Arabi (old school Arab nationalism, I found them shrill and boring when I bothered to read it).
A worthy concept, but I am afraid the very physicalness of newspapers make them too easy to ban (by the way, I remain puzzled why Hayat hasn't been found in Maghreb for decades) or pressure.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:55 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Global Gazing: Regional Reactions to US Election
Following up on my own note on what I have seen in region with respect to the American elections, let me share this FT analysis which is more or less in accord: Mideast relief over Rumsfeld’s demise, by William Wallis in Cairo.
Continue reading "Global Gazing: Regional Reactions to US Election"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:13 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
November 10, 2006
Global Gazing: MENA Echoes on US Election
As any number of MENA blogs can note, the US elections have been greeted in the region with a huge sense of relief, if only I would say from a rising sense of desperation with the Americans blundering about the region like a blind, maimed and lobotomised elephant.
Although I have been submerged in a potentially very profitable transaction as well as discussing with my new Managing Director carving out our operations and team from the Titanic (only a month on the job and the man is already on our side), I can attest that conversations over this week - with Americans, with Europeans, with above all MENA natives have all revolved around an expressed hope that the blundering incompetents in the US Presidential offices might finally give over some power to the realists.
Continue reading "Global Gazing: MENA Echoes on US Election"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:39 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
November 08, 2006
Rumsfeld Stepping Down
In the wake of popular dissatisfaction over the mishandling of Iraq (as shown in yesterday's elections), AP reports that Rumsfeld will be stepping down from his post as Secretary of Defense.
I'm sure members of our peanut gallery have opinions about potential shifts in US foreign policy now that Democrats have control of the House (and perhaps the Senate?). Feel free to yammer on and post links as things develop.
Posted by eerie at 01:04 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack
October 22, 2006
Spinning in different languages or proper adjusting of message to audience?
Following up on some small debates on MEMRI mendacity and accusations of doubletalk between English and Arabic on the part of Arabophone intellectuals, I found the following article from Reuters interesting, amusing and also thought-provoking: Diplomat acknowledges U.S. "arrogance" in Iraq.
The essence of the story, the head of US public diplomacy Near East bureau, Alberto Fernandez, apparently (I have been too busy to watch TV myself) acknowledged the US has bollixed up Iraq due to arrogance and stupidity. The US government has forthwith claimed (re the English) it is a misquote.
A moment to reflect on the problems of structuring messages and communicating between languages, based on the longer text of the same Reuters story from the NY Times Reuters feed.
[Update: Unsurprisingly this is showing signs of setting off, what was it called in comments, a stupid storm: I point to Bou Aardvark's note on the issue. I wonder if the stupid storm on the part of pornstarlet wannabes like Malkin will actually deprive the US of one its few capable interlocutors on the Arab Sats, in some cretinous recreation of Soviet style purges for not following party lines]
Continue reading "Spinning in different languages or proper adjusting of message to audience?"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:23 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
October 06, 2006
Dubai, the Attraction
A quick note to draw attention to a recent arty by Roula Khalaf of FT on Dubai and the why behind its success to date: Dubai cultivates oasis of calm where Arab business life can flourish.
The main thrust of the article is to highlight some of the why behind Dubai's success to date, beyond just stupid amounts of capital. Although that is a clear major condition, it is not a sufficient one as the other petro-giants of the region never managed to achieve Dubai's success (even if we mitigate our appreciation of the success by noting a definately unsustainable aspect doped by too much liquidity chasing too few quality assets).
Despite my own critical attitude towards Dubai - much is clearly illusion and can not survive, there are also clear lessons with respect to the ability of the Arab/MENA region entreprenurial classes actually being able to flourish when a moderately liberal (quite liberal for the off-shore aspects) business environment is established. I do note that some of - indeed in some ways much of Dubai's liberalism is rather Potemkin liberalism insofar as it is all of a very temporary, Enlightened Despot Suffrage quality. That being said, if one takes Dubai with a grain of salt, it does illustrate via its off-shore business services sector the degree to which Arabo-Muslim entrepreneurship is seeking a place to flourish away from the dead hand of the state, and the degree to which even in the temporary, Prince-dependent liberalism of Dubai seems vastly attractive in a world where the West is growing stupidly more hostile to Arabo-Islamic money.
Continue reading "Dubai, the Attraction"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
September 25, 2006
Mubarek is Dead, Long Live Mubarek: the Age of the Neo Mamalike
[Ahem Mubarek is not actually dead, it was a turn of phrase]
I believe it is more or less well known that I am an Egypt sceptic. Indeed, I am an Egypt pessimist.
A pity, as the country could and should be a great nation. However, Egypt is the perfect example in the region of the foreign funded vampire state and the bankruptcy of a short-termist "realist" (or rather fabulism dressed up as realism) policy running to the end of its tether.
I found the more and more open proposition that the Pharoah of the Mamlouks will be succeeded by the Son of the Pharoah of the Mamlouks at once amusing and disturbing. I am sure it will be, when it happens, be accompanied by much prattle on the part of the Americans about the "reformers" in the House of the Pharoah and other empty speeches only convincing to themselves.
Continue reading "Mubarek is Dead, Long Live Mubarek: the Age of the Neo Mamalike"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:08 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
September 15, 2006
Futile Bollocks and Banking
Although I remain rather too busy to contribute as I would like and should, the Generator is too embarassing to have as the lead item, so a comment on an important piece of idiocy by the Americans: their attempt to shut the Iranians out of the financial markets unilaterally: US threatens further action against Iranian banks.
I frankly find such interventions borderline retarded, as well as self-defeating, leaving aside the willy nilly confusion of Hezbullah with al Qaeda in such rhetoric. Incoherence.
Continue reading "Futile Bollocks and Banking"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
September 11, 2006
Yemeni Cricket? Upcoming Elections
Oh I wish I was in the land of khat and old times there were not forgotten, but I've never been there so I can't say there were old times. But for those to whom it matters, it appears that there are elections looming in the southland. September 20, 2006, to be precise. Will they be meaningful? And will they be cricket? This list suggests that the spirit of Lyndon Johnson may have had a hand in the voter registration process. UPDATE: 50 reported dead at election rally.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:46 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
September 10, 2006
They'll Estonia When You Try to Trade Some Goods: Transition Model?
Estonia, the Model? (Title apologies to Bob Dylan.) It seems everybody must get Estonia'd. In this excerpt of a behind-the-firewall op-ed by John Tierney in the New York Times, we learn of the transtion from an economically totalitarian society to a free market one in the ex-Soviet state of Estonia. Assuming -- and tragically some you don't, I know -- that a free market-based state and economy is a generally good thing, does Estonia provide an example for MENA (Mideast North Africa) states, and if so which ones? Alas, our main economics contributor in the region is currently bailing out sinking enterprises so the expert answer may be harder to come by. Meanwhile, I suspect Estonia fails as a model.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack
September 01, 2006
Naguib Mahfouz, 1911-2006
Back when I was planning my first trip to Egypt, I asked a Lebanese friend of mine what one should read to get a feel for the country. Her immediate, breathless response was "Naguib Mahfouz! Omigod you have to read him!!" (yes, a bit of an airhead, but also adorable). Her first recommendation was the Palace Walk series, but recognizing the impracticalities of lugging three books around in my suitcase, she told me to read Midaq Alley instead.
My first night in Cairo was a blur of people, cars and smoggy air. I recall standing near the open window of my hotel room at 1am and wondering why it still sounded like the city was in the middle of rushhour traffic. Despite having come from a large (albeit orderly) city myself, I had trouble adjusting to all the noise and chaos, not to mention the small problem of air so thick you could almost grab it. An hour later, I found my way to a tiny 24-hour internet cafe. The only other person there was a chainsmoking American expat who laughed when I complained about the pollution and suggested I breathe through a filter, like he did.
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August 27, 2006
Published: World Bank Report on MENA - 2006
Perhaps I will make this a tradition, but let me draw your attention to the semi-newly published (June, hey I didn't notice) World Bank report on MENA economic prospects, for 2006.
Last year's got me all inspired to rant on a bit and otherwise criticise a noble if somewhat flawed effort. It also inspired some parties to suggest I write "Development Porn" - I suppose writing the following engendered this:
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:44 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
August 26, 2006
Returning to Agit Prop
Without further comment, I share:
"I Was a Propaganda Intern in Iraq"
Electronic Iraq - USA: He was just 22 years old and he was an intern at the Lincoln Group, the Washington-based government contractor.
Contra my usual impression of "activist" sites, this particular article is fairly well-done and interesting. I will note that the intern's comments match my own impressions and what I heard through other sources.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
August 24, 2006
Giddiness: MENA Private Sector & New America Foundation
In reading the first paragraphs of a Washington Post Op Ed by a fellow at the New America Foundation, entitled The Real 'New Middle East' I thought I was going to be pleased, sadly though the author took real observations and mixed them in with simple-minded swallowing of corporate and governmental PR spin to produce absurd tripe typical of the wide-eyed neophyte or the paid propagandist.
A pity as the author's main thesis in a less over-done and gullible form has merit.
Cross posted from The Lounsbury
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 23, 2006
Barbuphobia: Clerics, Beards, Pre-Judgment, Piety & Stuff
Egyptian author Mona Eltahawy confronts her own presumptions about Les Barbus, presumptions derived from her experiences growing up in Saudi Arabia. By les barbus, I refer of course to a nickname used elsewhere for those conservatively pious, sometimes Wahhabi, Muslim gents who tend to sport long beards. They are often presumed -- can we say profiled? -- to harbor intolerant or reactionary social and religious views (not to mention explosives). The author herself concedes holding such statistically valid presumptions presupposing judgmental viewpoints on the part of conspicuously beadred Muslim men. But she soon comes to discover that such presumptions aren't always a reliable guide to each individual, especially after encountering a new person of the barbus type who turns out to be worth getting to know as a three-dimensional being in his own right, during meetings they had in and around a conference in Copenhagen on modern Muslims .
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:24 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
August 17, 2006
MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans
While I confess this note is in part motivated by my desire to have an excuse to share this cartoon from the Moroccan business daily, l'Economiste from yesterday's - 16 Aug edition. This was emailed to me yesterday, and is worthy of a good laugh, I thought it also worthwhile to undertake some reflexions on both the subject matter and some generalisations about practical issues.
[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
August 11, 2006
Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)
The rising chorus of commentators horrified at the American-Israeli desire to play a self-indulgent Thelma & Louise drive-off-the-cliff policy in MENA continues to grow.
Ranging from a late echo to my own "Guns of August" allusions, in the Washington Post yesterday (although the lunatic Thelma & Louise approach is reaffirmed by Gingrich and Krauthammer today), to Roula Khalaf's analysis in the Financial Times last week, to intelligent Israeli analysts realising that this 1982 business is not going to get any better, whatever the utterly magical thinking going on in Bush and Olmert governmental quarters, to The New York Times (in a generally decent if somewhat superficial review) noting the disastrous impact this useless war is having on American policy interests.
Continue reading "Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
August 09, 2006
Frothy: Fund Developments, Private Equity & MENA
A queer indicator of the amount of froth that characterises the MENA capital markets at present, my very own self got a call from an American firm looking to enter the MENA market for the first time and raise a private equity fund. Looking for a "face."
Quite frankly, they need someone grey-haired and I told them that right out, for the kind of investment they're thinking of; but on the other hand, I would be a decent face to give an image of.... "best practices" given me rep as Mr Clean.
This being said, this is not really about me, but the froth. With oil at nearly USD 80 and likely to remain well above USD 70, the amount of money flowing into the Gulf - and to a lesser extent places like Algeria and Libya - is astounding and looking like a replay of the 1970s. [Crossposted from The Lounsbury]
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August 03, 2006
Creative Destruction & Own Goals - "The New Middle East is Already Dead"
Text: "Uncle Sam wants to 'educate' our political parties"
TV: "War in Lebanon - Massacre"
US: "Lesson 1, turn off the telly."
The entry title comes from a radio report I just heard on RFI. The above is from a Moroccan business journal online, l'Economiste, normally a fairly liberal publication. Fairly amusing in the end, and illustrative of the spill over effects of the public US diplomatic position.
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July 21, 2006
Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)
Although less impressive than the scenes you can catch of the Arab Sats, this Al Jazeerah arty (Arabic) Continued Criticisms of Israeli Hostilities Against Lebanon and Palestine / استمرار التنديد بالعدوان الإسرائيلي على لبنان وفلسطين conveys in pictures (and of course text) the Islamic world reaction after the Friday prayers. The demos shown on the telly in Amman, Cairo, and Damascus were particularly large relative to the security presence. The article also notes the khutub (sermons) in particular in Baghdad; oddly perhaps the Israelis will provide Iraqis an inter-ethnic rally point.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack
July 04, 2006
Google Expansion & MENA - Market Interest in MENA
A rather quick note to draw attention to what may be a somewhat under noticed story, from FT: Google looks to expand in Middle East.
I noticed this when my usual robot searches brought up this on both the career angle and the news site searches. An interesting development.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:38 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
June 18, 2006
Somalia: Islamic Courts & Women's Progress
A quick note on a interesting arty in The Washington Post on the role of women in backing The Islamic Courts movement that seems to be well on its way to taking power in Somalia and displacing the "secular" warlords.
If there is one item that most at once irritates and amuses me about Western and American commentary specifically is the weird gullibility in the usage of "secular" versus "Islamist" - although in a sense it is relavatory of why secularism has or is failing in the MENA region and many parts of the Islamic world - where "secular" seems to mean "any corrupt bunch of idiots presently in power who are not overtly and ostentatiously 'Islamist' in political orientation."
If this is the "secularism" being offered, and indeed backed by the West and America specifically, does anyone think it should be suprising that, whatever bitter individuals like Hirsi Ali Magaan say for the consumption of the fearful Westerner, secularism is losing ground?
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:36 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
June 14, 2006
MyGreenCard.com
Using MySpace.com, a young Jericho, West Bank gentleman managed to win the affections of an American girl, aged 16, and invite her over to be married. But before the young lady finished her unapproved journey to Israel-slash-Palestine-slash-Holy Land-slash-West Bank-slash-Judea&Samaria, she was intercepted by US authorities in Amman, Jordan, and returned to sender. Her parents had stopped her. Now, the story of this Internet romance suggests, in a bit uncommon form with the unusual youth of this girl, a too-prevalent reality among intercultural adults in a similar situation where the active ingredient, at least for one, is sadly not an Arabian Nights romance, but an all-too-common hidden-agenda romance of a certain piece of non-erotic laminated paper.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:27 PM | Comments (28) | TrackBack
June 06, 2006
al-Mondiale
It's that time again, as evidenced by the open month discussion turning towards football. As the civilised world's attention turns to Germany, Lebanon has started to sprout an international collection of flags that would do the United Nations (or at least the EU) proud. Although there are three MENA clubs in the field, Lebanese flag-bearers prefer the front-runners: I've probably seen more Brazil flags than any others, followed by France, Italy, and a surprising number of Germany flags, along with a few each England and Sweden and one solitary Argentina flag. No Saudi Arabia, and no Iran or Tunisia flags that I can recall.
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Posted by tomscud at 07:03 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
June 04, 2006
Muslim Women as Victims - Lalami's "Missionary Position"
[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]
In a rather longish piece in the American Leftist dinosaur paper, The Nation, expatriate Moroccan author Laila Lalami takes a whack at one of eerie's favourite topics, Muslim Victim Women Reformers in an arty entitled "The Missionary Position".
While I am not normally inclined to read such things as The Nation, the highlighting by The Arabist were enough to induce a read.
I cannot say that I am a fan of such hackneyed phrases as "supporters of empire", above all when used seriously, but what can I expect out of literary types?
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:49 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
May 30, 2006
Media Savior Secularism: Ruthless Business Empires & Making Liberalism in the Arab World
It is not often I have the occasion to combine three of my negative obsessions: secularist posing, corruption and Egypt into one comment. But uniqely an FT article from 21 May by Roula Khalaf and William Wallis allows me to do just that, covering Orascom, the Egyptian telecoms & everything else giant's plans to launch a Sat TV news channel.
Orascom, whose...non-virginal business practices in region (including some fine accusations of bribery in the context of Iraqi and North African cell tenders) do not immediately lead me to think of its owner as a secular savior - rather as part of the business as usual sorts.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:46 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
May 25, 2006
"Dhimmi": Crock Quran? (And I don't care)
(Apologies to Southern African-American folk music.) The apparently false allegations that Iran was preparing a law requiring Jews and Christians to wear identifying symbols has not only resulted in a newspaper retraction, but also has led some to revisit an overused word among much of the Islamophobic blogosphere and elsewhere: "dhimmi". The term, in history applied to Jews and Christians in certain Muslim periods, appears to be derived from some type of legal inferior status imputed to non-believers in the early stages of the Islamic conquests. Lately, however, it has sort of become a kind of warblog/Little Green Footballs type of Islamophobic cult-jargon (cf. moonbat) for one who is a perceived "Uncle Tom", i.e. a non-Muslim who suggests that Muslims may indeed act with ordinary human motives, or that their faith is flexible and not pervasively malevolent.
Continue reading ""Dhimmi": Crock Quran? (And I don't care)"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:33 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
May 24, 2006
You Say You Want A Revolution? Chechen Sufism vs. Islamist Terrorism
In a hilariously ironic turn of events, it seems that the Russian Federation central government is now encouraging Chechens to return to observance of their indigenous flavor of Sufism , after 200 years of official anti-Islam policy ranging from denial that observant Muslims even existed to active persecution of believers. Well, I suppose that if you think your alternative is acceptance of a line of thought held by the charming folks who held a theater full of innocent civilians hostage, anything must seem like an improvement.
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May 20, 2006
Islamic Finance - Scholar Shortages
Some weeks ago one of your fine 'Aqoul authors raised the issue of Islamic finance, and its present situation.
While perhaps less sexy than the faux-reports of Iranian Nazi-esque clothing restrictions on minorities, understanding a bit about economic developments in the region is more useful to readers wanting to actually have a sense of MENA developments (as opposed to merely whanking on in general ignorance about the horrors of the Arab world, etc), and The Financial Times has been running quite a number of interesting articles on the region - well actually about the Gulf, but the confusion of Gulf with all of MENA/Arab world is so general I almost cannot complain.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:31 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack
May 14, 2006
Arab League
The BBC just ran a very interesting episode of the Doha Debates, a monthly discussion panel examining a motion. Hosted by Tim Sebastian, the combative interviewer whose previous gig was at the BBC's own HardTalk, the episode asked whether the Arab League ought to be disbanded. A clear majority of the people in attendance (and I note here that the elites of Doha are hardly representative of the teeming masses or the governments of the Arab world) seemed to think this was indeed the case. Notwithstanding the entertainment value of watching Qaddafi in a public forum, one is curious as to just what the point of the League really is; its accomplishments certainly haven't been all that spectacular, and its manner of (mal)functioning has annoyed more than one member state. Are there not already enough fora for a dialogue of the deaf?
Posted by dubaiwalla at 02:07 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
May 11, 2006
Dubai: Economic Cannibalisation?
FT's William Wallace - a reporter working from Cairo who I am coming to look forward to - has an interesting article on Dubai, Building ambition raises Middle East financial stakes, that merits a read by those of us who follow the place.
The shortest version, speculation that the Dubai model of free zones and specialised development "cities" is reaching the end of its logic with its proliferation in Dubai and copying of the concept among on the part of neighbours, as in Qatar. I beleive there is something to this, the issue of diminishing returns off of the strategy.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
April 26, 2006
Islamic Banking/Finance - Questions & Discussion
Not to depart too much from the important topical stuff, particularly discussion of the recent horrors in Egypt, but I want to solicit our brains trust to introduce me and other readers to a more general MENA-relevant concept I hear quite a bit about but know little of.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:29 PM | Comments (30) | TrackBack
April 13, 2006
Dar Fur: The Bowl Spills Over - Coup d'Etat Manqué in Tchad
Some time back in commenting on the Dar Fur situation in The Soudan, I touched on potential spillover in a somewhat incoherent manner in Dar Fur spillovers: Tchad and a State of War.
Now it would appear that things have indeed spilled over although it is hard to say.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:21 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
March 11, 2006
Danish Cartoon Protests: Roundup
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March 10, 2006
DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back
I shall make this briefish note as the DPW fiasco continues to steam ahead. In many ways this is good for me personally as I expect increased in-region / non-US flows for MENA money. But it is bad for investment in the US, bad for US MENA policy and reveals as clearly as clear can be the deep vein of anti-Arab bigotry hiding beneath the surface in the United States. A loss for moderation, a loss for state security interests and a loss for economic efficiency and investment in key assets. Yes, bravo to ignorant know-nothing racist jingoism. This blows back not only to commerce, but also to our pious middle conversation, make no mistake about it.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:35 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
March 09, 2006
Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia
Well, the irrational forces of bigotted know-nothing nativism and bigotted Islamophobia won out, DPW has finally said fuck it, keep poorly run ports, we'll take the profitable parts of P&O , or as the statement went,
“Because of the strong relationship between the United Arab Emirates and the US, and to preserve that relationship...DP World will transfer fully the US operation of P&O Ports North America Inc to a United States entity,” Edward Bilkey, the company’s chief operating officer, said in a statement.
Only yesterday the head, Mr Sharaf,
acknowledged ... that the US facilities were a small part of the deal and less profitable than other P&O container terminals. His remarks came as the White House appeared to soften its support for the deal and the House of Representatives pressed ahead with plans to block the transaction.
It is also of note that private equity groups, smelling blood in the water,
have approached DP World about buying the US operations, people familiar with the matter said. Industry observers said logical candidates included Blackstone and Macquarie, the Australian bank.
Well, mark one of up for the forces of blind bigotry and irrational anti-Arab xenophobia with all the dark hand waving about "connexions" and "associations" and the utter inability to distinguish between Saudiyah and the rest of the Arab world.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:08 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
March 05, 2006
Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)
Sadly my work is distracting me from the fun of the ongoing Bigotted Know Nothing Nativist Ignoramus Mob Madness surrounding DPW's takeover of UK's P&O and the incidental acquisition of the operating leases for port operations at six major US ports (although in the UK and globally sanity has prevailed*), I wanted to augment my dear friend and colleague, Secret Dubai's post on Israeli support for Dubai and DPW with specific reference to the Israeli shipping line Zim's statement of support; I should say it comes as no surprise to anyone with experience in the region that some Israelis would step forward on this, even in a politically delicate situation - not so oddly it is the moderates on all sides trying to do business that know each other.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:57 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
February 19, 2006
Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger
The emerging US controversy over Dubai Port World (an atrocious name I may add, even DP World is bad - hereafter at 'Aqoul, DPW) buying out historic UK port operator P&O - which incidentally includes a portfolio of US assets.
That unfortunate fact - a portfolio of US assets, which is to say management interests in six US ports on the United States Eastern Sea Board - has occasioned the exposure of a vein of ugly sentiment and public commentary, as well as typical for the "blogosphere" blind and ill-informed reaction. Another confirmation that Right and Left blog authors’ sneering with respect to the real media is badly misplaced.
This post – which will be updated and moved forward as I develop it – is intended to correct the poorly-informed xenophobic knee-jerking on Left and Right.
(I note in the interim that the fine American habit of turning everything into a lawsuit has emerged already as Maimi "Firm Sues to Block Foreign Port Takeover" per the WP, which pimps the security fallacy.)
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:00 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack
February 16, 2006
Democracy as a Weapon
Recently there has been a fair bit of handwringing over both the Hamas victory in the Palestinian territories and the Muslim Brotherhood’s strong showing in Egypt’s parliamentary elections. US policymakers are likely not pleased by the fact that Islamist MPs outnumber secular ones by nearly two to one in Iraq, and that early hopefuls such as Ahmad Chalabi’s Iraqi National Congress bloc failed to secure a single seat in recent elections.
In this context, it is mildly disturbing to see Farhat Asaad, a Hamas spokesman, point out this uncomfortable truth:
"First, I thank the United States that they have given us this weapon of democracy. But there is no way to retreat now. It's not possible for the U.S. and the world to turn its back on an elected democracy."
Continue reading "Democracy as a Weapon"
Posted by eerie at 09:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Contrarian Cartoon Commentary: Mechanics in Politics and Boycotts
Reluctant as I may be to go against my own disdain for the silliness and misdirection of the cartoon protests, I must in good Aqoul tradition be a contrarian even to some trends here.
Well-expressed (though I have many fundamental reservations) is an older Tim Cavanaugh article at Reason on the subject, saying the controversy is on the whole a good thing. But haste and time-constraints make me wish to concentrate on one aspect – one where I feel I can make more of a contribution than my mere better-informed-on-MENA-than-average-Yank-whiteguy status allows.
The silver lining I see has to do with the centrality to political development of the “mechanical” process of politics, with ideology or substantive focus only secondary. In the cartoon reactions, there are real signs of change, potentially for the positive. (I should come back and add links but time constraints are really bad at the moment personally, please be patient.)
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:55 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack
Propaganda, Iraq and Gaming - and Future Funds
Sadly I can not comment on this, other than to share the story and note that it confirms my observation months back that the Lincoln Group story was not a dark 'Neo Con' tale but one of dilletantes.
Quick Rise for Purveyors of Propaganda in Iraq
It is of course illustrative of the general problem with the Bush Administration's efforts in Iraq and MENA. Clumsy cronyism with amateurish dilletantes. A bit of cronyism here and there will happen. Human beings are human. The sins of the Bush Administration lie in their lack of competence in executing even cronyism, not as the simple minded Left would have it, in dark Right wing plots. A pity, I would enjoy a competent if unpleasant US government in world affaires. An incompetent, bumbling, often cretinously self-deluded US Government makes me life harder, and I don't enjoy that.
At least I can add that the Fund for the Future, that much vaunted initiative announced at the G8 meeting in Dubai is in fact a quietly dead letter for the moment. Ms Cheney got her panties all wet too soon. Perhaps the idea may get reworked to something vaguely rational.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:33 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 15, 2006
Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism
I am not the biggest fan of the US Administration and its Middle East policy, that is certain. Indeed, I rather consider them a bunch of congenital and serial incompetent bunglers whose policies may be described with Talleyrand's "Worse than a crime, a blunder."
One might expect, then, I might be in agreement with the opinions voiced by the Democratic party opposition in this article from Reuters:
US bungles Middle East policy, lawmakers tell Rice
By Sue Pleming
Well, I am not. Sadly the criticism, rather than being well-founded, is largely based on the same kind of simple-minded magical thinking and wishful-thinking-as-analysis that has led the Bush Administration astray so very badly so many times. Criticism about Hamas rather than Fatah winning the elections in Palestine, for example. As if the US has a magic wand to wave to make the 'good guys' of the moment win (or forgetting that using such wands that do exist to achieve 'victory' for one's favoured side can be rather Pyrrhic, ending up with damaged goods).
Continue reading "Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
February 14, 2006
Cartoons & Protest: Context, Hariri's Commemoration as a Benchmark
A brief comment if I may, on the cartoon controversy and benchmarking - in the context of the over-heated characterisations of the Islamic world and the protests against the Danish cartoons.
Among the items that have most annoyed me has been the lazy characterisations that had protests of mere hundreds or a handful of thousands as reflecting 'mass Muslim anger.' Mere hundreds is not mass anger.
I'd like to take Lebanon and the Rafiq Hariri Memorial demo as a benchmark for real mass movement: as one can gather from The Washington Post and better from the image with al Hayat's coverage, even allowing for large Xian and Druze participation, more than a few hundred Lebanese turned out.
I would hazard the opinion that one has a benchmark for what really is bringing people out, and what is not.
It strikes me that again and again, the largest demos one sees are not the ones supporting the radicals in the region. However, the radicals are good at turning out their troops more often, smashing things to get attention and generally bleating rather loudly claiming to speak on behalf of all. The squeeky wheel, as it were.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:44 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
February 07, 2006
Salafist Entrepreneurial Behavior: A Previous Incident Noted
Reading through the responses to the idiocy that has stormed across the Muslim world over Danish cartoons, I was struck by the similarities between these events and the riots in Alexandria late last year:
For Ali Abdel Fattah, a spokesman of the Muslim Brotherhood and one of the organization’s leaders in the Mediterranean port city, the violence was the result of political maneuvers ahead of the parliamentary elections. According to Abdel Fattah, the CD containing a filmed version of the play I Was Blind but Now I Can See, which was performed only once (over two years ago), was distributed in the neighborhood to sabotage the candidacy of National Democratic Party Candidate Maher Khilla (one of only two Copts running for the party). Khilla announced that he would step down last week in protest at the violence, but was later told by the ruling party leadership not to run anyway. In a common variant of the story, one of his rivals in the race (which will be held on 20 November) distributed the CD to incite Muslims against Copts.
Let's see: violence, directed against Christians (in one case, Europeans, in the other locals), prompted by the widespread distribution long after the fact of work that is genuinely offensive. Right.
Posted by tomscud at 12:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 06, 2006
Cartoon Outrage: Salafist Entrepreneurial Behaviour, Manufacturing Incidents & the Problem of Moderation [Updated]
There seems hardly any reason to provide links to this ever-escalating cycle of utter contemptible idiocy, so let me make this more or less purely opinion and my own personal analysis. I would be remiss, however, if I did not pimp our very own summary page on the Danish – Mohammed Cartoon Controversy.
I also would like to point to a fine round up of online commentary as well as highlight our dear Raf Bey’s contribution: “Why do the Syrians burn embassies but the Iranians don't?” In addition, to return a citational favour well-deserved, I point to Clive Davis’ blog commentary, and in particularly this most recent summary of rational commentary on the riots. One has to agree with his observation that the commentary he cites is “more helpful than one of Christopher Hitchens' thunderbolts on "the case for mocking religion".” Juvenile exercise of expression, but then we should be used to Hitchens being a cretin with regards to the MENA region.
Onward, then.
The Lounsbury Discussion on the Issue
[Update: reading Wikipedia I found an online link - no longer working - to the/an Arabic dossier on the cartoons written by the Denmark group of Imams. Having given it a speed read, it appeared to me that while the dossier was written post-facto to their official meetings, its Arabic text did clearly indicate the incendiary 'extra cartoons' were not published, but were ones received by certain unidentified protest leaders, post their public protests in Denmark. That makes the provence of the cartoons less doubtful to me. The dossier was not inherently unreasonable in tone, although certainly disputable, and clearly reflected an agenda, one which I continue to think reflects the Salafist extremist fringe]
[Update II: A very interesting note thanks to Clive's comment, Danish paper rejected Jesus cartoons; they were apparently offensive and unfunny. Ahem. Well. In other notes re the same article, someone desperately needs to give Muslim activists a lesson in marketing: the European Committee for Prophet Honouring just sounds... silly.]
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:04 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBack
January 31, 2006
More Comments on Complete and Utter Nonsense
As the good Lounsbury has recently outlined, a surge of hysteria has gripped the Islamic World in reaction to cartoons published in a Danish newspaper. Since he has done a superb job in skimming the Arab media I will limit myself to venting my spleen re grass roots Saudi and religious Arabic channel reaction. The gaggle of 'activists' (namely, bored housewives with no grasp or desire to grasp the fact that not all the world is actually under an Islamic monarchy, nor I would imagine, do they have a desire that their holiday destinations in Europe be run by The House of Saud) here in Riyadh have bombarded each other with text messages, e-mails and phone calls fanning the flames of a false sense of purpose and ironically manifesting a cultural arrogance and ethno-centrism equal to that which they are attacking.
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Posted by bint ash-shaitan at 12:00 PM | Comments (21) | TrackBack
January 30, 2006
Complete utter nonsense: "Offended by Cartoons" Muslim Pinheads Boycott the Danes
It is hard to know how to categorise this idiocy, however this arty at least gives some fuel Protests Grow Over Danish Cartoon of Muhammad, sadly for those who like to portray Muslims as fanatic cretins, as in fact there are a fine bunch of fanatic cretins to make the case.
The essential start point is a cretinous Danish paper ran months and months ago a rather idiotic competition to portray the Prophet Mohammed, and as I recall, a goodly percentage of entries were offensive nasty little Arab / Istlamic stereotypes. Frankly one got the sense of an undercurrent of bigotry in the entries.
But whatever, cartoons in a stupid Danish paper. Nothing to get one's underwear in a real not over. Danish Muslims protested and that should have been the end of it. But no, the International Ever Seeking Offence to Blow Up Issues for Exploitation Islamist Cretins Faction has gotten hold of this.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:46 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
January 29, 2006
France, Islam & Discrimination: Further to the idiocy of the "European Intifada"
Further to my ongoing comments of the situation in France, the riots that some ill-informed, bigotted or just plain stupid commentators blew up into a "Muslim intifada" in Europe, an interesting article on current French efforts on addressing rampant discrimination in France.
(A side set of reading by the way from 2003, note the prescient commentary, intifada my ass, I note there is a clear connexion with MENA directly, besides the issue of Muslim minorities in Europe and the potential echoes within the Islamic word, the parallels in terms of illiberal economies with severe labour rigidities leading to high unemployment and difficulties in findings jobs)
A few comments, then.
Continue reading "France, Islam & Discrimination: Further to the idiocy of the "European Intifada""
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:38 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences
The election of Hamas has set off quite a lot of overdone hand wringing with respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and with respect to 'democracy promotion.'
I am going to ignore the I-P conflict as an endless toothache, although frankly in the medium term this is probably a boon as Hamas seems likely to be a more effective player than the corrupt and broken PLO/Fatah.
Rather, a few words on democracy promotion in the Middle East and North Africa.
The first words are, I am no fan of it, and frankly largely do not believe in it on the terms that it is pimped to the general public, etc. However, the handwringing post-Hamas victory requires some comment.
Continue reading "Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:03 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
January 19, 2006
US Diplo Service: Out into the Field She Says
This is very good news for the US diplo service, and long over-due. Will make my diplo friends very happy.
The Washington Post arty reports:
Diplomats Will Be Shifted to Hot Spots
Rice Also Plans to Elevate USAID Chief
By Glenn Kessler and Bradley Graham
Thursday, January 19, 2006
My first comment is that all the US diplos ...no, sorry all the US diplos that I have respected over the years... have bitterly complained about the current US diplo service organisation and disincentives to "get out" and as well master languages (yes, learn languages to get little brownie points on the fiscal scale, but not master, and why with the bizarro rotation system that puts rare Arabic speakers in Beijing for years at a time, and vice versa).
Those few US diplos who have defended the system rather struck me as bureaucrats, although usually far more straight up than the delightfully corrupt ones I liked, like my EU colleagues
Continue reading "US Diplo Service: Out into the Field She Says"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:40 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
January 11, 2006
On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,
Via our dear friend, Father of Aardvarks 'a comment on Gerecht on Iraqi payola', found 'Hearts and Minds' in Iraq: As History Shows, Ideas Matter More Than Who Pays to Promote Them leads me to make a comment on influence and media from a business standpoint.
Continue reading "On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:30 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
January 06, 2006
Stroke of Misfortune?
By stroke of a stroke, Israel has integrated itself further into the region by temporarily adopting a Saudi political model, namely having a morbidly obese head of government stuck in a coma on ventilation while factions, secular and religious, vie for power and succession.
Ariel Sharon, whose name is a near sound-alike for the Israeli-Palestinian peace dilemma ("A real share? Own?"), appears to be at death's door, a place of familiarity given his own past career stints as death's doorman. But now that his bloodthirsty vampire public image among many detractors has morphed from Nosferatu to that of "Grandpa" on The Munsters, is peace further or closer? Rafael Frankel of the Christian Science Monitor speculates.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:54 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
December 20, 2005
The Semi-Bogus Dilemma of Democracy versus Mosque & State
[A long and boring essay, written with all the arrogance I could muster out of being male, foreign to the region, and American.]
A "Semi-bogus" dilemma, I call it, because the issue of what type of rulers might emerge from real democratic processes in MENA is a fair question. My real target for discussion is more the Western progressive, since those are my own people (though I am more right wing “libertarian” than progressive). I speak about their fears and those of many MENA-ites as well, who express endless reservations about MENA democracy. They do so because democratic empowerment has a real risk of empowering retrograde Islamist/traditionalist forces, e.g. the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. To give away the ending, my message below is basically: shut up and get over it.
My more complex message directed towards MENA-ite advocates of liberal or social democracy is derived from reflections upon the insightful work of Mona Eltahawy regarding Egypt's last election rounds, and the harassment of the Coptic minority. This ugly American’s (meaning me) more complex message to MENA-ites is: don't shut up, but do get over it. . . for now, at least. The following is a look at why.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:53 PM | Comments (20) | TrackBack
November 08, 2005
US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]
The item I have refered to in the past is now public:
A Ludicrously Bad Idea
The key item here is this:
"The U.S. wants to see some success before further expansion. It envisions attracting board members with the clout -- names being bandied about include Jack Welch and Robert Rubin -- to get Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak on the phone to complain, for example, that he needs to free up pharmaceutical prices if a private drug industry is to flourish in Egypt."
Fucking stupid ass concept. Getting your fund involved in these kind of politics is a disastrous way to invest.
UPDATE: Arty text below with extended commentary.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack
November 03, 2005
But foursomes are halal . . .
. . . if more boring. Building on the threesome discussion, below, we find foursomes more tolerated:
Several of the world’s top airlines, including Emirates . . . feature these circle-the-globe fares and Wide World of Golf can customize your land arrangements. . . .Grab your foursome.
Continue reading "But foursomes are halal . . ."
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:40 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
October 28, 2005
Ahmadinejad and Israel
What's going on in Iran? First the country's president calls for Israel to be "wiped off the map." Naturally, this doesn't go down well at all internationally, with the Israelis going so far as to call for Iran's expulsion from the UN. So Iran's Moscow embassy issues a statement saying the president didn't mean to "speak up in such sharp terms," and we are reminded that such statements are made all the time during rallies but don't really mean anything.
So the new president made a stupid diplomatic error, not realizing his new position makes his words carry more weight. And after his country's ambassadors are summoned to various European capitals to explain their government's actions, all this will die down, right? So then why is Iran stupidly upping the ante by ordering its diplomats in Western countries to launch protests there against Europe's attitudes towards 'Zionist crimes'? My own take is that Iran's foreign policy, more or less directionless since Ahmadinejad came to power a few months ago, is starting to go down the tubes.
Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:18 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
October 25, 2005
Clarifications on Least Attractive Features like Class
Clarified some points on class, tribe and attractive features of MENA/Arab society in the comments on this entry.
But I reproduce the points here below as well. In haste, bullet points.
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:25 AM | Comments (18) | TrackBack
October 16, 2005
Bird flu in Turkey sets region in motion
From the Daily Star:
Mideast states scramble to thwart bird flu
Governments act quickly to ban imports of poultry and stock up on vaccines
As scientists confirmed Friday that the latest outbreak of bird flu in Turkey belonged to the killer H5N1 strain of the virus, countries right across the Middle East went on the alert to curb the spread of the disease. Ankara banned the hunting of wild birds and clamped a 3-kilometer quarantine zone around the northwestern village of Kiziksa, where the virus was discovered. Almost 9,000 birds were slaughtered and veterinary officials in protective suits were culling the few remaining birds in the village Friday.
Sales of poultry meat throughout the country have dropped by 50 percent in the past few days according to wholesalers despite assurances by health officials that the virus dies when meat from a sick animal is cooked well.
In a bid to calm nerves, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan broke his Ramadan fast Thursday with a forkful of chicken salad which he also offered to a photographer on the scene.
Most Middle Eastern countries have banned chicken imports, but migratory birds are going to be a problem. And banning the hunting of wild birds - wow. That one will surely be respected universally and not at all ignored.
Fortunately, we have the vaunted public health systems of the Middle East to protect us in case the flu starts being transmitted human-to-human.
Gah.
Posted by tomscud at 01:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
October 12, 2005
Migration, Economics & MENA-African pileups
While I may be banging away at an issue of little general interest, I was encouraged to find something of relevance to the rising issue of Euro-African migration and the Maghreb in the last issue of the Economist.
Economics focus
Be my guest
The economic case for temporary migration is compelling; the historical record less so
Oct 6th 2005
(Yes subscription, don't like it? Fuck off then and read some free twaddle.)
For those puzzled, my reference is to the recent problem emerging in the Maghreb and especially Morocco with its land border with the Spanish enclaves Ceuta and Mellila, which I mentioned in my typically light weight Illegal Immigration - Borders & Madness and The Maghreb-African Immigration Problem
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:49 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
October 11, 2005
Ramadan TV & Terror
Of interest to the media, terror and culture people here, a fine little story on a Ramadan soap that I have been following (or rather, am forced to follow unless I hole myself up in my office) on MBC: Syria launches terror-themed soap for Ramadan.
I caught this referenced online somewhere, but had actually been watching the series without knowing where it was going, although the last episode (10 September on MBC) gave the game away with the somewhat dime Khaliji character getting brainwashed by a ultra-Salafi takfiri type activist. That and the chica who is the implied wheel-chair bound narrator pulling or slipping back her hidjab to show nasty scarring.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:11 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
October 07, 2005
Arab Media - Arab Sats: Father of Aardvarks (edited)
I would be remiss not to draw attention (although I suspect most 'Aqoul readers are already aware) to Abu Aardvark's article Watching al-Jazeerah.
In that context let me add a few observations:
Continue reading "Arab Media - Arab Sats: Father of Aardvarks (edited)"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:47 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack
October 06, 2005
For Dar Fur Day (Updated) [realised it's actually Darfur Fast (sic)]
In honor of this ridiculous, pretentious and foolish event scheduled for 6 October (a day of fasting during Ramadan, how... navel gazing North American whinging activist), I would like to draw your attention to this old post of mine on the issue of Dar Fur: Darfur - On Racism, On Ignorance, On Laziness and just plain stupidity (and Arab responses) as well as this from 'Aqoul, Critiquing the Arab World.
UPDATE:
As an added bonus and in part prompted by my annoyance with the annoying little whinging idiot of an ill-informed stereotypical student 'activist' git, I thought I would provide a new link to a Dutch analysis of the Dar Fur issue entitled: Darfur: The logic behind the conflict, from the Dutch journal RISQ: Review of International Social Questions.
Rather makes the same points I have in regards to the miss framing of this (and I would add the nasty substition of anti-black sub-African prejudice for equally unenlightened anti-"Arab" prejudice).
Continue reading "For Dar Fur Day (Updated) [realised it's actually Darfur Fast (sic)]"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:25 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack
Arab Radio
Our friend The Father of Aardvarks has an interesting little piece drawing attention to a new report on Arab radio from the Arab Advisors Group; a very solid media advisory group founded a few years back (I should disclose that I know one of the founders, and have done business with him).
Our fine Father of Aardvarks, or Bou Aradvraak as I like to call him, largely concetrates on the public policy angle, which is important, but I find the business angle as interesting.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 05, 2005
Insomnia and Arab Singles Sites: Random Thoughts
Can’t sleep, so I’m surfing Arablounge.com, an Arab singles site.
It showed up on the bloody Google Ads bar, I swear.
The site appears to be aimed primarily at younger Americans/Europeans with Mideast backgrounds (Christian and Muslim) and seems to reflect North American online dating culture. Vastly different from the UAE section of Shaadi.com, a mega-personals site that I had the opportunity to…er…study in-depth some months ago. The most obvious difference between these two sites is that Shaadi.com is branded as a matrimonials site where people create profiles with the specific intent of finding a spouse (sometimes on behalf of a sibling or son/daughter). Unlike your average Western dating website, Shaadi profiles provide detailed information on religion, caste/subcaste, values (liberal, moderate, conservative), mother tongue, complexion (fair, wheatish, medium, etc) and most amusingly, residency status. I imagine that this might be particularly important for the large Indian/Pakistani expat population in Dubai.
Shaadi.com has a rather large selection of Asian Muslims, but hardly any Arabs or Turks (my personal preference, if I may be momentarily superficial). There is, however, another matrimonial site that focuses primarily on the Middle East and North Africa: Qiran.com.
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Posted by eerie at 11:44 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
October 04, 2005
Aden, 1967
Via Lenin's Tomb, an article in the Socialist Worker points out that the other occupying power in the Iraq war was ALSO involved in a dirty little counterinsurgency war in the 1960s. So skip past the obligatory British political infighting and the "colonialist butcher" reference, and you get to the meat:
One British army officer in Aden in 1967 describes the developing disaster in the following familiar terms:
“A major problem which was to recur throughout the campaign was the lack of any specific, reliable intelligence about the enemy — where they were, what their organisation was, what their aims and objectives might be, or indeed, who they were”...
Readers of British newspapers at the time were treated to a bewildering array of acronyms to describe the competing factions of the resistance in Aden, as well as tales of “foreign extremists” from Egypt and Yemen.
These militias, strangely, appeared set on killing British soldiers as well as each other, despite the fact that Britain had promised them independence as soon as the trouble had stopped.
What made it worse was that the security forces themselves appeared to be arming various organisations — and there were growing fears of clashes between the local police and militia and the British army.
Posted by tomscud at 01:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
And in other Ramadan related news, Al Qaeda goes for the "Yes we are bloody minded barbarians, thank you very much" award
On the wires, Al Qaeda in Iraq (yes, I know, it's very much a poorly controlled franchising thing, but hey, lessons in brand management - bad and good) has called for getting down to the really fun business of blowing up foreign infidels and Shia as well one should think.
I did like the cited slaves of the cross phrasing, it actually has a nice ring to it. Much more interesting than that ugly non-sense, "Islamofascist" the American Bolshy Right, its fellow travellers and assorted semi-literates have taken to using. They should take rhetoric lessons from the al-Qaeda people (who are actually, all things being equal, somewhat good at rhetoric - that and of course senselessly blowing up innocents, but can't ask for everything in the world).
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:01 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Ramadan Competition (updated)
Once again we have the peculiar situation of Ramadan beginning on different days in the region
Middle East Muslims begin Ramadan. Although not noted, Morocco and Tunisia, like Oman are going to start a day later.
Whether true or not, there is widespread perception (among Maghrebines) that these decisions (in the case of Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria) are political - to show "indepedence."
A queer dynamic.
[An Update & Clarification]
Per a comment made, I believe I should expand and clarify for certain sub-literates who were or are unable to parse this and thus came to the rather queer understanding this comment was motivated by a lack of understanding of how Ramadan works:
Continue reading "Ramadan Competition (updated)"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:57 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
October 03, 2005
Morocco: Rulership & Development (Edited - Updated)
Daniel Drezner noted an interesting if somewhat weak article in The New York Times on Morocco in the context of asking how MENA states can transition to real rule of law
I call the article weak as it failed to properly differentiate the Moroccan royal context from the rest of the region - a context I would call relatively unique given the fairly deep historical depth of the monarchy, its combined historical political (pre and post colonial) and religious (Alaouites are shurfa) legitimacy in most circles and the recent role of M6 (Mohammed the Sixth's popular nickname in Morocco) in liberalisation.
This is a far cry away from the made up Kings of Jordan, the President-Kings of the rest of the region.
Of course that does not make the Royals of Morocco invulnerable nor infallible. However, their roots of political power and legitimacy run far deeper than most MENA governments.
[Edit to note an addition re a comment on Drezner's blog: see end of entry]
Continue reading "Morocco: Rulership & Development (Edited - Updated)"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 01, 2005
Irshad Manji Left Guilt and Likoudnik Agitprop
Although this is an immensely tardy comment, I must thank eerie for the reference to The Globe & Mail letter from Tarek Fateh, which drew my attention to Irshad Manj's odd statement or claim regarding Muslim guilt in regards to the Holocaust. I confess I know Irshad (a fine name I may add) only by the few articles on her book & her articles and interviews. Rather simply, her book isn't available to me in this non-anglo environment.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:07 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
September 28, 2005
Sexy Arab Abaya Women, Assumptions: US Public Diplomacy in KSA
Returning to a subject more or less dear to 'Aqoul, women in the Arab world, for a moment, I wanted to draw attention to this intriguing article from the visit by US public diplomacy director Karen Hughes to Saudi Arabia: Saudi Women Have Message for U.S. Envoy
Let me first say little in the article was surprising to me (including Ms. Hughes surprise that the "Sisters" did not look at their cultural heritage and mores in the same light as she expected), but it is a useful one for reflexion. Thus some comments on the article:
Update: The Financial Times also has this story. Better done actually.
Continue reading "Sexy Arab Abaya Women, Assumptions: US Public Diplomacy in KSA"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:25 AM | Comments (26) | TrackBack
September 12, 2005
Underdevelopment as Dilettantisme: Why MENA Does Not Attract Capital, Reason No. 5
While sadly behind on my ability to comment substantively, I thought a bit of a comment on dilettanstisme would be worth a quick intervention (and it being all I have time for, it's what one gets).
The comment is provoked by a series of convos over the past few days in regards to a certain MENA country (which for various sensitivity reasons shall remain unnamed) and its hosting of a MENA region investment conference. Let's say that our certain MENA country is not exactly a star performer in the realm of attracted FDI, per capita or in gross. Of course neither is the region.
There are multitudes of reasons for this. The one to be discussed today, dilettantisme.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:25 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
August 26, 2005
Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)
Added Thoughts on Private Equity for Devleopment MENA
I neglected to touch on a few key points in my original note, below are further thoughts on private equity and economic development for the MENA region.
Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Economist - a fine arty on Jihadis as Anarchists
A bit late I admit, but I get my Economist a week late, and very much prefer the print edition to online reading. Being primative.
The article in question:
For jihadist, read anarchist
I very much enjoyed this as this is something that I have been making as a point in several conversations online, in regards to the neglected similarities to the radical anararchist movement of the end of the 19th century in Europe and the Americas.
Continue reading "Economist - a fine arty on Jihadis as Anarchists"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:48 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
August 25, 2005
Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development
Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development
A few weeks ago I raised the subject of emerging markets private equity in particular in the context of US Gov efforts to utilize the vehicle to further its political / development goals in the Middle East – North Africa region. One of our online world colleagues if you will posed a question to me as to what the “The Lounsbury” approach would be, in the context of my expressed skepticism in regards to the investment vehicle / definition chosen by The Overseas Private Equity Corporation.
Ironically (well not really) at present I am working on materials closely related to just this question, although not really in regards to development – but as much of the private equity activity in region has been international development institution driven there is a clearly overlap. Now, having sent drafts of my materials off for comment I can take a moment to sketch out some preliminary thoughts on the issue that will be the basis for future comment.
First, my assumptions, based on personal experience in the region and in the “sector” if we can call it that. Again, these are my a priori assumptions and principes.
Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:34 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Water, Business & Privatisation
A fine comment in The Financial Times today on water services privatisation that has no small meaning for the MENA region.
A subject of long interest to me, as some know, dating back to my time in Egypt where I was appaled at the sheer madness of Egypt's water policies.
Well, actually I spent much of my time appalled by everything in Egypt, but that is another matter.
It is an abiding shame that the idiot anti-globalisation fools opposed sensible privatisation of water services under emotive and illiterate cries of "human rights" and the like, while all too typically ignoring the fact of real costs of water services which get borne by the poor one way or another.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:07 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
August 16, 2005
Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes
A somewhat quick note building off of a comment by the esteemed Nadezhda in regards to my rapid note on a new US Gov private equity fund (also with more rough perso comments at Lounsbury ) backed by the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a US parastatal investment insurance and financing house whose main line of business is political risk insurance on US direct investments in risky locales.
I have been intending - and still intend to - write some commentary on this specific issue of private equity (or in general equity finance) in the MENA region, but I thought some quick notes on this OPIC backed private equity fund for the MENA region are in order, and in response to some notes by Nadezhda - whose name I have learned to spell now.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
August 11, 2005
Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced
At the risk of descending into flackery or something approaching it, I thought a brief comment here might be fun.
OPIC BOARD APPROVES $75 MILLION FOR MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA FUND
Certainly this plays into my personal interests.
[Updated with correction below]
[Update with a question: Is there a debate to be had here regarding using such tools for acheiving a policy goal?]
Continue reading "Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
August 04, 2005
On Terror, Tea Cups and Jumping - Re Conclusions
If I may permit myself a snide aside based on this article:
London Bombers Used Ordinary Materials, and in partial connexion with my own note, Tempests & Tea Pots regarding a rather overdone, hysteric to an extent and generally ridiculous and poorly informed online debate on terrorism.
Continue reading "On Terror, Tea Cups and Jumping - Re Conclusions"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack