MENA Region General Archives

March 07, 2012

The Sad Religious Spin on the Iranian fiasco

Watching the drumbeat relative to Iran, one can not but be reminded of the Iraq experience. I hope to God that the USA does not elect someone who will follow the drumbeat of war. It will be a disaster. This article is a wise one relative to the particular religous spin (and I think a sad statement on the state of American political discourse and thinking that this sort of thing may well work:  Bibi Netanyahu's Bible Story - Robert Wright - International - The Atlantic

Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave President Obama a copy of the book of Esther, which will be read in synagogues this week in observance of Purim. Esther tells the story of a Persian government that tries and fails to wipe out all the Jews in the Persian Empire. According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Netanyahu saw this as an occasion to generalize about Persians (or, as we call them today, Iranians). He told Obama, "Then, too, they wanted to wipe us out."

Here's a thought experiment: Suppose that an Arab or Iranian leader of Muslim faith met with President Obama and told him about some part of the Koran that alludes to conflict between Muhammad and Jewish tribes. For example, according to Muslim tradition, the Jewish tribe known as the Qurayzah, though living in Muhammad's town of Medina, secretly sided with Muhammad's enemies in Mecca. Suppose this Muslim said to Obama, "Then, too, the Jews were bent on destroying Muslims." What would our reaction be?

I think reactions would vary. Some people would say, "See, the Koran teaches Muslims to hate Jews!" Some would say, "Wow, this Muslim is looking really, really hard for reasons to keep hating Jews, isn't he?"

That second point, at least, would have some merit. After all, the Muslim could just as easily have pointed to parts of the Koran that say nice things about Jews--such as the part that says that God, in his "prescience," chose "the children of Israel ... above all peoples." Or the part that says that God "sent down the Torah" as "guidance to the people" and now had sent down the Koran "confirming what was before it."

By the same token, Netanyahu could choose to emphasize a part of the Hebrew Bible that depicts Persians in a more flattering light. For example, the part that calls Cyrus the Great, the Persian king, the "messiah" because he delivered the exiled Israelites back to their home. (Yes, the only non-Hebrew called messiah in the entire Hebrew Bible is a Persian!)

Dangerous rhetoric and dangerous game playing by a fringe in Israel that somehow believes that Iran is Iraq. 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:12 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 25, 2012

A MENA Econ Analysis to come back to

Via Sullivan via The Economist, an interesting paper which I need to comment on, re practical economic issues in MENA. My bread and butter, Economist and the paper have good comment.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:36 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 04, 2012

Arab Entrepreneurship

A NYT arty I have been meaning to come back to, on entrepreneurship in the Arab

First, a good observation from an otherwise not terribly interesting op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by an Under Secretary of State.

Private entrepreneurship is a vital antidote to this mix, but deep skepticism of markets persists in North Africa. A 2010 poll in Tunisia revealed that well over half the population preferred government jobs over any type of private-sector employment. And no wonder: In their experience, a market economy stands for crony capitalism that benefits only the well-connected. It's important to correct this perception.

The interesting observation here is relative to the distrust of private employment, and the US official connecting this with their experience of market economies as crony economies "only benefiting the well-connected." That it should be noted, is not purely corruption it is also the economic expression of social mores and lack of trust in society. That's an important thing to keep in mind. While note the sole driver, it is an important one.

Turning to this IHT / NYT arty which is worth a few notes, Entrepreneurial Spirit Awaits Its Moment in the Middle East in particular in keeping in mind the above.

“Ideas are cheap, but it is about whether you can find an entrepreneur who is passionate about the idea,” Mr. Ito said. “You need passion, some experience and good investors, but also you need the ability to have structure. Corporate structure is tricky and bankruptcy structure is tricky. Those tend to inhibit entrepreneurs that might otherwise be taking the risk.”

In addition to the cultural issues, I also agree that poor, outdate corporate law and structures are significant barriers in the region. The cultural barriers cry for adopting innovations from North America in particular to help better deal with the risk. 

While the legal system differs from one Arab country to another, limits on foreign ownership and the need to have a local sponsor in the Gulf region in particular will limit the extent to which entrepreneurs can flourish. Bankruptcy laws also remain opaque and the interpretation of investor rights is often arbitrary. Censorship of Web sites and the banning in some countries of alternative phone providers like Skype also pose hurdles.

Eh, the Gulf is the major area where ownership restrictions are barriers, much worse are opaque and slow resolution makes it even worse.

“Most of the companies I invested in, in Singapore, were transplanted with entrepreneurs coming from other places,” Mr. Ito said. “Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and other non-U.S. hubs have fairly easy corporate structures that started to mimic the U.S. Here, if you change the structure a little bit, you attract a lot of entrepreneurs, and then they would create jobs locally.”

Besides helping introduce investors abroad to opportunities in the region, Mr. Ito is eager to transport the M.I.T. Media Lab culture to the Middle East by hosting meetings in the region and encouraging Arab companies to join.

“Arab companies in the past wanted to do big things; they like big names and big projects,” Mr. Ito said. “I think the way the Media Lab innovates, which is undirected free thinking, is a little bit different than the culture here, which is to plan things and do five- to ten-year projects.”

Last observations are interesting to reflect on.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 02, 2012

Egyptian Fantasies, American NeoCon dreams

I spotted this intriguingly deluded and/or dishonest read of the Egyptian revolution and American policy via, if I recall, Andrew Sullivan. Although I haven't any particular faith in the Egyptian revolution, this eval is simply daft.

Eric Trager: Happy Birthday To Egypt’s Doomed Revolution | The New Republic

Exactly one year ago today, I stood in front of the Lawyers Syndicate in downtown Cairo and watched as a few thousand protesters suddenly streamed into the area from the north, overwhelmed Egypt’s notoriously violent riot police, and pushed onward towards Tahrir Square. That mile-long march, which culminated with the protesters bursting through a human chain of officers and seizing the Square, was the most inspiring thing that I’ve ever witnessed, and it remains so. Long presumed to be politically passive, ordinary Egyptians bravely amassed with one simple demand: That decades of dictatorship had to end. When Hosni Mubarak resigned eighteen tumultuous days later, the Arab Spring had bloomed.

Ahem, that would have been when Ben Ali left... but leaving aside Egypto-centricism,

Or so we wanted to believe. The reality of the past twelve months, however, has undone whatever high hopes one might have held. Egypt is now headed for radical theocratic, rather than liberal democratic, rule. And a befuddled Obama administration has failed to do anything to stop the coming disaster.

This is simply daft.

First, one had to be deluded if last January one thought Egypt was heading towards liberal democratic rule. And to advance the argument, either stupid, deluded or simply dishonest.

Of course currently it is far from the case they're headed towards "radical theocratic" rule - it rather looks more like the same old Neo-Mamlouk rule with a bit of a Brotherhood façade. And the Brotherhood isn't radical theocrats, nor even radical religious. Nour party is, but they're far from allies at this stage.

As for the swipe at the Obama administration... That is in

IT IS TEMPTING to believe that things might have turned out differently had Washington worked harder to bolster the young revolutionaries who seemingly exemplified America’s own liberal values when they took to the streets last January.

Sure, if one is inclined to wishful thinking and hasn't the slightest fucking clue as to Egyptian society and political structures after decades of Mubarek dictatorship.

These brave activists, after all, had won America’s hearts to the tune of an 82-percent approval rating at the height of the revolt, and their photogenic faces carried the promise of a more democratic, friendly Egypt.

Uhhh. right.

But the activists were never who we hoped they were. Far from being liberal, their ranks were largely comprised of Nasserists, revolutionary socialists, and Muslim Brotherhood youths—an alliance of convenience for opposing Mubarak and, later, for denouncing the U.S.

Well, surprising that, denouncing the USA, after USA poured billions and billions into supporting the very regime they were toppling.

As for the idea of liberalism in the revolution... What a peculiar fantasy.

Thus, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Egypt in March 2011, a group of leading activists refused to meet with her. They also turned out to be intolerant conspiracy theorists: When classically Cairoesque rumors that a “Jewish Masonic” ceremony was to be held at the pyramids on November 11, the April 6th Youth Movement’s Democratic Front declared that this non-existent event should be prohibited. “We are committed to the achievements of the revolution, which emphasized freedom,” they said in a statement. “But freedom is not absolute freedom, and … it is constrained by the regulations and beliefs of the Egyptian people, who do not accept that these celebrations be protected in the wake of the revolution.”

Oh how very surprising.... Egyptian political culture was not magically transformed by people bopping around Tahrir Square. Stunning insight.

Not that the revolutionaries were the horse to bet on anyway.

As opposed to who to bet on?

Their continued reliance on street protests following Mubarak’s ouster angered the wider Egyptian public, which desperately wanted a return to normalcy. In late October—only one day before the registration deadline—they finally formed an electoral coalition, the Revolution Continues Alliance (RCA), to compete in parliamentary elections, but it was too late. The RCA won merely 2.35 percent of the parliamentary seats, and will play a minimal role in shaping Egypt’s political future. Meanwhile, Islamist parties captured nearly 70 percent of the vote by tapping into the Egyptian public’s religious sentiments and using their well-established social services networks to turn out supporters.

Again, very stunning that after decades of Mubarek regime actively working to stunt any and all political activity outside of the Neo Mamlouk system, the youth didn't get it right. Who could have possibly predicted such a thing. Oh just about anyone, that's right.

Well, that's how revolutions work.

The Obama administration, however, had already pegged its hopes on the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which took power after Mubarak’s resignation with Washington’s approval—and reasonably so. After all, the military’s historic relations with Washington and its widespread support among the Egyptian public seemed to make it the ideal partner for shepherding Egypt toward a stable, democratic future.

Ideal partner?

What other choices were there?

Our dear writer has already highlighted the youth groups of non-Islamist cast were disorganised and inexperienced - and not terribly well-disposed to USA (although he glosses over the reasons). And it's clear his feelings on the Islamists....

So apparently the American administration was to invent some magical partners in Egypt.

But there were early signs that the SCAF was far more concerned about stability than it was interested in democracy. Last spring, as sectarian violence rose considerably, the military hesitated to interfere in domestic strife for fear of inciting a backlash.

Big surprise, SCAF not interested in democracy. I doubt anyone in the American administration, in private, was particularly surprised by this.

...

Then, when a sluggish transition towards civilian rule catalyzed new Tahrir Square protests in the autumn, the military unleashed an unprecedented crackdown, entirely abdicating whatever democratic credentials it could once lay claim to. Between October and December, the military killed at least 80 demonstrators and wounded hundreds, deploying armored military vehicles, snipers, and weapons-grade teargas again its own people, and manipulating the state-run media to incite civilians to take up arms against protesters. Meanwhile, the SCAF subjected at least 12,000 Egyptians to military trials and, in late December, stormed the offices of seventeen pro-democratic NGOs, many of which are U.S.-funded.

True.

As the SCAF’s repressive rule has undermined its legitimacy both within Egypt and abroad, the Obama administration has looked increasingly to the Muslim Brotherhood as a potential partner. Thus, administration’s policy of “limited contacts” with the Muslim Brotherhood, which it announced in June, expanded to diplomatic meetings with the organization in October, and Deputy Secretary of State William Burns met with the Brotherhood’s political leaders in January. The Brotherhood, the thinking goes, won a 47 percent plurality in the recent parliamentary elections, and Washington’s interests are hardly served by having hostile relations with Egypt’s legitimately elected leaders. This argument, however, is only half right: While Washington should maintain open lines of communication with the Brotherhood, it should have no illusions about the Brotherhood’s willingness to act as a partner on key American interests.

Emphasis added.

And why is it expected, after decades of American backed dictatorship, any Egyptian party coming out of the Revolution is particularly "partnering" on key American interests (whatever they are in this author's active imagination). What there is to criticize in the American approach right now escapes as the Brotherhood is clealry a popular power. Our dear author doesn't like them, but elections have consequences.

In this vein, the Brotherhood’s leaders have said repeatedly that the organization intends to put the Camp David Accords to a referendum—a strategy that it apparently believes will enable it to sink Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel while escaping the blame.

Ah Israeli interests.

Of course this rendition of the Brotherhood's position is rather tendentious, as the majority of declarations by the Brotherhood have in fact indicated they're not inclined to

Brotherhood leaders have additionally called for banning bikinis, beach bathing, and alcohol despite the fact that these are essential elements to Egypt’s tourism industry, which comprises roughly ten percent of Egypt’s stagnating economy.

Again, tendentious.

Some have, only to be rebuked.

The organization also supports new legislation that would limit foreign funding of NGOs, thereby undercutting Washington’s ability to aid pro-democratic organizations.

Oh what a surprise, after decades of Americans supporting a dictatorship and engaging in faux democracy promo, why post revolution they're less than keen on Americans funding NGOs... Odd given American sensitivities about anything foreign funded in USA.

(I'll leave aside again the factualness of the claim - here I haven't noted the Brotherhood promoting this in specific, but perhaps I did miss that).

Finally, and perhaps most consequentially, the Brotherhood intends to establish the sharia as the principal source of Egyptian legislation and criminalize criticism of Islamic law, thereby rendering Christians and secularists unequal citizens.

Again, exaggerated and tendentious.
...

Perhaps the administration is betting that recently reported negotiations between the SCAF and Muslim Brotherhood will yield an agreement that satisfies both parties and, at the very least, promotes domestic tranquility. If so, it would be a telling indicator of where things stand: a year after the ebullience of Tahrir, an alliance between military autocrats and radical theocrats is viewed, sadly, as a best-case scenario.

Islamists are not per se theocrats, although he does love the scare language

But I would say that on the very days of Tahrir, the best case scenario was always this.

Eric Trager is the Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 15, 2011

The GCC Monarchies Demarche (Jordan and... Morocco???)

Catching up on this piece of strange news, FT reported that the GCC had extended invite to Morocco and Jordan to join the GCC...

The Gulf Co-operation Council could be turning itself into the club of Arab monarchies as it considers bringing Jordan and Morocco into its fold, a move that would strengthen the political and economic capacity of the two countries’ leaders to fend off any popular challenge.

In a surprise announcement late on Tuesday, the GCC, which joins six oil-producing Gulf Arab states, said it was considering a request by Morocco and Jordan to join the bloc, even though the two poorer countries have little in common with existing members.

Following a GCC summit in Riyadh, Abdullatif al-Zayani, the secretary-general, said foreign ministers would be holding talks with the two non-Gulf countries to complete the procedures required for membership. It is not yet clear if membership will be granted or in what form.

The GCC was formed in 1981 in the wake of the Iranian revolution as an alliance of oil-producing monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.

This is, quite frankly, nonsensical. There is perhaps some vague Association logic with Jordan. But ... Morocco???

FT.com in its follow up only raises more questions in the later case 

Now, after decades of canny diplomacy and shifting loyalties, Jordan is finally preparing to enter what many in the country see as the safest harbour in the entire Middle East: the Gulf Co-operation Council, the alliance formed by the conservative, oil-drenched monarchies along the Persian Gulf.

According to analysts, the move would answer an old dilemma: “Since the collapse of Iraq [in 2003], Jordan has been very much left out in the cold. This move means that Jordan would become part of a collective – economically, politically and strategically,” said Nawaf Tell, the director of the Jordanian Center for Strategic Studies and a former diplomat.

Jordan was invited to the join the Gulf Co-operation Council only this week, along with Morocco. But while Moroccan commentators reacted with surprise to the announcement, saying they were unaware the country had applied in the first place, the response in Jordan was one of unconcealed delight.

At least Jordan has some direct cultural and geographic touch on GCC. Politically, however, I do not see this as being all that genuinely helpful to the Hashemite Monarchy, nor economically. The deep logic really escapes, although in some ways it is a better fit than Yemen.

The Moroccan side is just in the realm of bizarre, however, and I am actually stunned that the Palace pursued such a demarche (did they?)

In Morocco, analysts agree that closer association with the Gulf oil producers will bring economic advantages. But they also point out that the proposal has no geographical logic and appears to be politically driven.

“We were all very surprised by this,” said Nadia Lamlili, editor-in-chief of Economie et Entreprises magazine in Casablanca. “I’m not sure it has really been thought through,” she added.

Morocco has historically been part of the regional Arab Maghreb Union, which includes Algeria, Tunisia and Libya but has never made much progress towards economic integration, hampered especially by long-standing political problems between Morocco and Algeria.

A Moroccan source close to the palace emphasised on Thursday the historical association between Morocco and Gulf monarchies and said the GCC invitation should be seen in a long-term, strategic perspective, but not as preparing the way for an alliance among monarchies.

Well, actually I doubt such an association even brings any economic advantages, given the inability of the Gulf investors to really get their heads around the fact that Maghreb works differently than the Gulf or Machreq.

Going to have to talk to my palace friends to see what the take is - I wonder if on GCC got out ahead of where Morocco really is, given the upcoming constitutional reforms, etc.

For once I sympathise with otherwise somewhat annoying and tedious 20 February Movement.

Morocco’s February 20 Movement, which has been pushing for political reform, was sceptical. Osama El Khalifi, one of the movement’s founders, said the proposal looked like an attempt “to build a coalition against countries that have succeeded in making a change”.

That assessment is shared by many Jordanians. “The reading many people here have is that this is the [Arab] kingdoms trying to stand together against the Arab spring and the Arab revolution,” the Amman-based western envoy said.

Politically I don't think this is really helpful at all for the monarchy in Morocco.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 14, 2011

Naiveté in Propaganda: Ben Laden & Impact of Porn Accus

I am continuously befuddled that the US military and counterror people believe these kinds of demarches, Pornography Is Found on Bin Laden’s Computers - NYTimes.com actually carry any credibility with audiences not already pre-disposed to the US view / to disliking Ben Laden.

The discovery of the pornography, first reported by Reuters, may not be surprising in a collection of five computers, 10 hard drives and dozens of thumb drives and CDs whose age and past ownership is not known.

But the disclosure could fuel accusations of hypocrisy against the founder of Al Qaeda, who was 54 and lived with three wives at the time of his death, and will be welcomed by counterterrorism officials because it could tarnish his legacy and erode the appeal of his brand of religious extremism.

No. Just simply no. Porn does not "tarnish" Ben Laden more with anyone who does not already loathe and despise him. First, the credibility of the accusation is .... dubious as to a real factual connection to himself (given no control on provenance, and frankly the Americans could be making this up). There are any number of non-ideological reasons to view this with scepticism.

Second, on the ideological side, the people who lean towards sympathy towards Ben Laden are not going to be in any way inclinced to view this as credible - indeed it feels rather smearish - and quite the contrary I rather would suspect it has rather more potential to generate sympathy than the inverse, along the line so "the infidel not only have killed the Sheikh, but now are fabricating personal smears."

A stupid idea and demarche by "counter-terrorism officials"  (a discipline I have less and less respect for as time goes on, as it seems to mean 'specialist in advancing own prejudices in military-security jargon').

Rather more effective wold be to focus on his writings and things more clearly connected to him and the idealogy.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:04 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

May 03, 2011

Other than Ben Laden: Awrah, ownership & Turkish Playboy covergirls, liberation porn

As the All Ben Laden show is boring, I turn my attention to a good old Aqoul topic, Muslim sex: Playboy's Muslim Cover Girl: Is Sila Sahin Good for Women? - The Daily Beast, which is a very silly article positing that a German-Turkish woman's German Playboy cover represents an interesting event for Muslim women.

Actress Sila Sahin has sparked outrage as the first Turkish woman to pose for Playboy—but perhaps her rebellion will inspire other Muslims to define modesty and honor for themselves, says Asra Q. Nomani.

German-Muslim actress Sila Sahin, 25, is causing quite a stir as the first Turkish woman to undress for Playboy, posing in the May issue of the magazine's German edition. "For me, these pictures are an act of liberation from the cultural constraints of my childhood," the star of the German soap opera Good Times, Bad Times told Playboy. "I have tried to please everybody for too long. With these images I want to show young Turkish women that it is OK to live the way they are, that it is not cheap to show skin, that you should pursue your goals instead of bowing down to others."

I'm not a fan of porn as a symbol of empowerment, but as a Muslim woman, hearing divinely sanctioned mandates all my life about what a good Muslim girl looks like, I can understand why Sahin has responded to our community sanctions about honor, shame and modesty by stripping—and why members of her family have ostracized her for it. The battle over the Muslim woman's body is a debate over a simple Islamic concept: awrah (or awra), an Arabic word that refers to the zones of women and men forbidden from the public eye. While it's an equal opportunity word, it's the excuse some Muslim men use to subordinate, silence, segregate and cloak women from Afghanistan to Seattle, Washington.

And in fact, Sahin's decision to pose for the nudie mag may mark an important milestone on Muslim women's path to defining awrah for themselves. Recently, France banned the veil—in part because it perpetuates the notion that a woman's body is forbidden. Sahin's exhibitionism takes this concept to an extreme. Yet similar to how American women responded to the sexually repressive mores of the 1950s with the sexual revolution of the 1960s, only to find a happy medium of sexual freedom in the decades that followed, perhaps acts like Sahin's will prove liberating.

While I have no criticism of the posing, frankly the idea that there is symbolism for Muslim women seems rather bizarre - and given that models like Iman (Somali) have long been present, I find it hard to see an impact... Although to be uncharitable, perhaps for Anglophone South Asian origin authors, black African Muslim models and Maghrebine models (and porn stars) don't really count.

Continue reading "Other than Ben Laden: Awrah, ownership & Turkish Playboy covergirls, liberation porn"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:31 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

May 02, 2011

Algerian reactions

I should take the time out to report that here in Algiers, where I am in town for business for the past week, the reaction to the Osama news generally positive (taxi drivers, ordinary Mohammeds I have spoken to), although I have heard two people say that they were not sure it was true unless there were pictures. I don't necessarily think pictures is a wise thing, however.

An aside, the NYTimes.com report that Ben Laden was in fact living in a mansion, not a cave doesn't surprise me:

It was hardly the spartan cave in the mountains that many had envisioned as Bin Laden’s hiding place. Rather, it was a mansion on the outskirts of the town’s center, set on an imposing hilltop and ringed by 12-foot-high concrete walls topped with barbed wire.

No Internet though? Perhaps wireless internet, pre paid cards.

Al Jazeera is all Ben Laden now, and showing the videos of the planes hitting the towers.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:25 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Ben Laden, post

There will be much bloviating about this, I was oddly puzzled in watching Al Jazeera this AM, at first did not quite believe it: Amid Cheers, a Message - ‘They Will Be Caught’ - NYTimes.com

“I don’t know if it will make us safer, but it definitely sends a message to terrorists worldwide,” said Stacey Betsalel, standing in Times Square with her husband, exchanging high fives. “They will be caught and they will have to pay for their actions. You can’t mess with the United States for very long and get away with it.”

Sentiments understandable, but Ben Laden 'messed with' the USA for over a decade... I rather think this will in the end make little difference, although politically for the sitting President, doubtless very helpful for him politically.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 28, 2011

Syrian silences

The reporting here, U.N. Security Council Rebuffs Push to Criticize Syria - NYTimes.com is more than slightly wrong-headed:

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR
Published: April 27, 2011

UNITED NATIONS — An attempt by the United States and its European allies to condemn Syria in the United Nations Security Council was rebuffed on Wednesday, as the willingness to intervene in the region — strong enough to lead to military action against Libya under similar circumstances just weeks ago — appeared to evaporate.

Emphasis added. No, it did not evaporate, it merely was tied to Libyan specificities, notably the fact that Qadhdhafi has few to no friends (and mostly paid supporters). The Assad regime has always been rather more clever and savvy than The Guide. Not an amazing benchmark one must admit, but a real difference. There was never any general willingness to intervene, in Libya it was always and continues to be a case of Qadhdhafi having left himself zero sympathy.

Of course additionally we should recall that the Assad regime, other than re Lebanon (which Syrian nationalists of all stripes have a hard time accepting as a real independent entity), behaves itself in re neighbours, and has for a while now.

On the flip side, Qadhdhafi neither behaves himself well, nor showed any signs of refraining (e.g. Tunisia) from mucking around to up-end results he did not like (the democratic revolutions, such as they are).
 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Explosion in Morocco cafe

Marrakesh cafe blast kills several, cause is alleged to be criminal; clarity not yet there on cause, responsibility, etc.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 19, 2011

Open Thread for comment on Syria, Bahrain etc

I have major work to do, the explosion of the region may be amusing to people far away, but me, it is a huge toothache. I note that the Arab Sats are carrying video from Syria on Friday suggesting now Syria was started the same road as Egypt, Yemen, etc., including major demos in cities considering regime strongholds. This is indeed the MENA 1848...

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:30 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

March 02, 2011

Corvée noire: Guide's 'Mercenaries'

This is not surprising behaviour from The Guide

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1627: The BBC's Hausa service has spoken to Niger nationals fleeing Libya. They said there are widespread reports of people from sub-saharan Africa being arrested.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1632: Disturbingly, the Niger nationals said those people arrested are being made to choose between joining Col Gaddafi's army or being killed.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1537: People from Niger who have fled Libya tell BBC Hausa that there have been widespread arrests of sub-Saharan Africans. They say they are being forced to either join Col Gaddafi's forces or be killed.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

On Transitions, an Asian reflexion

A very interesting note, Lessons for the Mideast from Asia's Revolutions - Council on Foreign Relations that has some interesting points of reflection:

Continue reading "On Transitions, an Asian reflexion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 27, 2011

French FM resigns over Tunisia

This was long overdue, she was really flagrantly incompetent in handling the crises in Maghreb:
Pressure mounts on Gaddafi - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

5.04pm: The French foreign minister, Michele Alliot-Marie, has resigned after mishandling the crisis in Tunisia. "I ask you to accept my resignation," Alliot-Marie wrote in the letter, a copy of which was seen by Reuters. President Nicolas Sarkozy, due to make a televised address later today, is expected to replace her with the defence minister, Alain Juppe, a veteran conservative who served as prime minister and foreign minister in the 1990s.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 23, 2011

Civil War bis

Underscoring that this is unlikely to end quickly or nicely, this report
Libya on the brink as Gaddafi promises showdown - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

1.07pm: My colleague Ghaith Abdul-Ahad has just been on the phone from the Tunisia-Libya border. He says there are hundreds of people coming through, mainly Tunisians. Some have been harassed and some beaten up by Libyans who blame them for stirring up trouble. They are scared.

At least one of the towns on the roads between Tripoli and the border is in the hands of anti-Gaddafi rebels. Checkpoints are manned by the Libyan army and pro-Gaddafi rebels.

On the Libyan side the border is manned by plain-clothes police who are "very, very, very loyal to Gaddafi, and very aggressive," Ghaith says.

The item re Tunisians strongly suggests that Qadhdhafi's line about foreign agitators, Tunisians, Moroccans, Egyptians, etc. being behind violence has a real audience. I believe the thesis of a civil war is very credible. The East is solidly Anti, but the West...

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The Libyan Mirage Defection: Maltese First account

Very interesting note from Malta's English newspaper

INDEPENDENT online

.... Meanwhile, AFM sources have told this newspaper that the jets, ... broke out of formation when their squadron was ordered to attack Libyan civilians. ..

While it is not yet known whether the two Colonels were in command of the mission and whether they encouraged their fellow pilots to make for Malta, it has been established that the two aircraft peeled off and dove for the deck. They flew below 500 feet to avoid detection while in Libyan airspace – presumably both out of fear of surface-to-air missiles being launched from Libya and also to lose the rest of the squadron. It is understood that the flight, which takes about 40-45 minutes on a commercial jet liner, took only six to nine minutes in the Mirages, as afterburners were engaged. In pilot talk, as one source put it, they “bunted, dove for the deck, hit the afterburners and screamed towards Malta”.

There are two accounts of how the aircraft made contact. Some sources say they requested emergency landing clearance as they were out of fuel (Malta is obliged to acquisce), while others said that the planes landed in formation and only announced their arrival when they set down on the tarmac on the commercial runway.

The newspaper also notes that the flight time is scary for Malta as a reminder of how close they are to Libya should more serious trouble breaks out.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 20, 2011

Libya: Dancing by The Grave (but whose end game?)

Only 48 hours ago if someone had asked me could the Guide fall I would have said, "not bloody likely." Now I am not sure at all.

Live Blog - Libya | Al Jazeera Blogs

12:11 am: Libya's ambassador to China, Hussein Sadiq al Musrati, has just resigned on air with Al Jazeera Arabic. He called on the army to intervene, and has called all diplomatic staff to resign.

He made claims about a gunfight between Gaddafi's sons and also claimed that Gaddafi may have left Libya. Al Jazeera has no confirmation of these claims.

11:25 pm Online reports claim remaining pro-Gaddafi militia in Benghazi, around the Elfedeel Bu Omar compound, "are being butchered by angry mobs". It is impossible to verify the claims, though Al Jazeera has spoken with several people in the city who say protesters control the city, as security forces flee to the airport.

However, I believe that Qadhdhafi and the people close to his system are going to have every reason in the world to fight savagely for their position as I don't think a negotiated solution or a light resolution is possible given they went the Full Qadhdhafi.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Libya, The Revolt of the East & The Guide takes the Chinese option

The Libyan situation rather smells like civil war, and that between regions.

Middle East protests - LIVE | News | guardian.co.uk

10.30am Libya:
This news report from Al-Jazeera shows chaotic scenes in Libya's north-eastern city of Benghazi. Anti-government protesters appear to have set fire to a security building and there are pictures of some making off with weapons - including an artillery round

12.01pm Libya:

Associated Press is reporting that the death toll is Benghazi may be much higher than the estimate from Human Rights Watch (which they had called "conservative").

A doctor in the Libyan city of Benghazi says his hospital has seen the bodies of at least 200 protesters killed by Moammar Gadhafi's forces over the last few days. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he fears reprisal.
Witnesses told AP that a mixture of special commandos, foreign mercenaries and Gadhafi loyalists went after demonstrators on Saturday with knives, assault rifles and heavy-caliber weapons.

Continue reading "Libya, The Revolt of the East & The Guide takes the Chinese option"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:42 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 18, 2011

Bahrain's Monarchy is flagrantly stupid

First, the bloody repression they launched seems to me to have been mostly unnecessary and just plain idiocy - unless they are willing to go the full Qadhdhafi. Of course doing so would fuck their aspirations as a banking and commerce centre right into a cocked hat.

This note from BBC on Nicholas Kristof is quite on:
BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1023: Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times tells the BBC World Service that he has heard Bahrain's royal family is unhappy with his reporting: "I've heard that through the PR firms that they hire. There is apparently a campaign to get me fired - I don't really know how they're going to proceed with that. Most remarkably, one member of the royal family tweeted that I am supplying weapons to outlaws and that I have ties to Hezbollah. To me this was a reflection of the completely delusional world in which the government lives. The government does not want reporters here... This is a wealthy country, it's cosmopolitan, it's well-educated, it's a banking centre. And then they have this thuggish behaviour, with police sent in firing on people, crowds. It is astonishing and it breaks your heart."

Presuming Kristof is correctly reporting the Royal Tweets (to be taken with a grain of salt, as of course a Tweet I am not sure is confirmable as to source, etc), that is indeed delusional. It does seem in keeping with the style of response. But the response really makes no sense given Bahrain's aspirations.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:05 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

February 17, 2011

The Guide: tear gas? Real permo revolutions use Helo Gunships

This, if confirmed, is going to put a real crimp in the Guide's path to respectability.

Libya protests: Colonel Muammar Gaddafi turns helicopter gunships on own people - Telegraph

Libya protests: Colonel Muammar Gaddafi turns helicopter gunships on own people
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's regime turned helicopter gunships and snipers on protesters killing up to 19 people yesterday as rare anti-government demonstrations were last night reported to have reached Tripoli, the capital.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:58 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Bahrain Protests Crushed: This perhaps isn't going to help with the financial centre aspirations

Bahrain is one of the countries in the region I have very little direct experience with, so I shall limit myself
BBC News - Bahrain protests banned as military tightens grip

There were columns of tanks and armoured personnel carriers moving through the city this morning. The area around Pearl Square, which was the home of the protesters up until 12 to 15 hours ago, is now ringfenced by the security forces.

Barbed wire has been erected; there are vehicle checkpoints and roadblocks around the city, traffic is being controlled, and the authorities have said all protests have been banned.

It was a very different scene at the hospital: one of passion, chaos, mourning - and anger. Hundreds of people were gathered outside as the ambulances turned up. Crowds rushed forward; doctors were angry because they said ambulances had been prevented from attending to those people who had been injured when the police attacked them.

This kind of crack down is likely to see ongoing violence and... well I bet the Khalifas just chose dynasty over national aspirations as a financial centre.

It does rather suggest that this really is the Arab 1848. I had my doubts.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:21 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

February 08, 2011

Tunisia Appeal for Aid

A smart appeal, although I suspect the US, instead of investing in the country where it has the greatest liklihood of effect (and where it chose the side of Angels), will continue to pour billions down the Egyptian rat hole.

FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Tunisia appeals for aid to protect democracy

Tunisia’s interim prime minister, Mohammed Ghannouchi, has appealed for international funding to “protect the Tunisian experiment”, insisting that the cost “would be really very modest compared with what is at stake”.

He told The Financial Times in an interview there was no guarantee that the transition to democracy after the toppling of Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali as president last month would go smoothly. The popular uprising inspired protest campaigns across the Arab world, most notably in Egypt.
 
“There are forces that would like to take it back to square one,” he said. “All the people who have things they can reproach themselves for, who profited from the old system, are going to do all they can to hinder this democratic process.”

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Tunisia, the profile of faux econ liberalism

Now, the arty below I strongly suggest taking Gulfies complains about bureaucracy with a large grain of salt. Maghreb bureaucracies do follow the finest French traditions of inflexibility, but on the flip side my experience with Gulfies is that they expect all rules etc to be open to personal negotiation (e.g. adding on floors at a whim on approved building plans, etc.). There is a happy medium that neither side has achieved. In many respects I prefer the Maghreb side as at least there are genuine institutions, rather than generalised personal fiat. 

FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Tunisia left with an investment mirage

Tunisia was always heralded, by itself and others, as a magnet for Gulf investment. But just as the political unrest of the past month has given the lie to its political stability, another mirage is the country’s image as a prime investment destination, Gulf investors say.

They complain of a combination of grinding bureaucracy, corrupt demands and interference from the family of the former president Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali. The impact of the global financial crisis added a further burden to many landmark foreign investments.

“Gulf businessmen found out that corruption in Tunisia wasn’t the corruption they were used to,” says one Tunisian banker. “You pay to get in, but you don’t get a service in return.”

Statistics suggest that the UAE is the largest investor in Tunisia, with more than $30bn of foreign direct investment.

Yet Gulf businesses may have promised grandiose plans but in reality have only mobilised a much smaller amount of capital. While Tunis Sports City is the most advanced UAE project in the country, Bukhatir is still only believed to have invested a tiny fraction of the $5bn cost.

“Bukhatir has been deeply committed to the development and remains focused towards Tunisia’s long-term growth prospects,” the company said in a statement.

Gulf investors say most deals, even those that went through government agencies and ministries, eventually ended up with some sort of financial demands from the broader family of Ben Ali, from bribes to finalise the transfer of land to fully fledged joint ventures.

Emphasis added.

The item re The Family is important. By all accounts I have from professional partners in Tunisia, the Trabelsis (mostly but not only) got quite rapacious in the past decade and it only escalated in the past 5 years as a sense of impunity grew. Raises questions I may add, parenthetically, about Transparency Int'l indices.

The other item here is the Vapour Ware effect of Gulfie investments, particularly Dubai / UAE investors who have not given up on their 'minimal direct capital, maximum effort to flip on speculation'  - the speculation and flipping strategy being why they're so keen on the big announcements effect. A leveraged strategy they're still trying even now.  That's in contrast with the Kuwaitis who tend to eschew that, and actually put in the hard capital and get something done before crowing about it.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:54 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

February 07, 2011

Neither Free Market nor Lbieral, Egypt

An Item I must return to as it is my speciality

Resentment Finds a Target In Ahmed Ezz - NYTimes.com

On paper, the changes transformed an almost entirely state-controlled economic system to a predominantly free-market one. In practice, though, a form of crony capitalism emerged, according to Egyptian and foreign experts. State-controlled banks acted as kingmakers, extending loans to families who supported the government but denying credit to viable businesspeople who lacked the right political pedigree.

This is in effect part of the problem of that kind of regime. The usual Left academic critique is that " IMF diktat"  (a phrase that one can only use if one has actually no experience with IMF and their limp-wristed ways with such regimes) forces 'neo-liberal'  economics down the throats of countries like Egypt. Quite the contrary, Egypt came to these reforms on the bankruptcy of their state-driven model, with all the crony-ism and gross and massive inefficiencies that State models everywhere have shown. They adopted part of the IMF & WB advice re privatisation for greater efficiency, but only part. They did not adopt free market reforms as such. Unfortunately, privatisations were merely transfers from nominal state ownership with monopoly control to regime-cronies with monopoly control (as well as Military related control). More efficient than the state, yes, but not overall better for the population. Pseudo free market without a reasonably free press to critique regime and cronies, and without a reasonably free financial system (the Egyptian system remains massively state dominated, which as this note correctly indicates, doesn't mean more ' social' direction, it means more ability for rent extraction), you get this Frankenstein system.

Of course people hate this system, it combines the worst features of both systems.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 06, 2011

The Revolution, So Far

Burgeoning political science academic with an urban planning/space expertise* blogger Colorless Revolution gives colorful reflections from on the scene -- and more recently away from the scene -- of the Egyptian uprising. In entries from over several days, he discusses where it may go and not go, and what it may need to do. The whole series is worth reading in full, but some excerpts (not necessarily in chronological order) are below. (The questions appearing above each section are our own captions, not his). Side irrelevant pondering: are urban planners just a bunch of Squares?

* Corrected from earlier misidentification as a full-fledged urban planner.

Continue reading "The Revolution, So Far"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 02, 2011

The Shame of Tuesday: Cairo & The Grave

I entitled my thread at Giraffe Boards The Mubarek Denouement: Egypt dances past the grave thinking I was being wryly amusing.

That turns out not to have been the case. As I started reflecting in that thread, I have been suspecting for several days now - based not only on following the news but things I have heard from friends in region who ... well have a reason to know such information that Mubarek had sworn not do as Ben Ali.

Today's events, after some hope on Tuesday that something could move, showed that Mubarek & Co. believe that they can bluster their way through this, and that their analysis of Ben Ali - he was cowardly, his nerve cracked - is driving them to drive Egypt towards the abyss.

Repeating from the Thread's last post.

Emphasis added.

Returning to my sceptical analysis of weeks back, I do feel I was right in that the Mubarek system has deeper roots than Ben Ali, and there are more people with more to lose if he goes. That opens the door to the Chinese option, although that US$1bn might slightly counteract.

A comment in the same vein by Richard Spencer of the Telegraph:

What I fear here is that Mubarek et al are generating a situation where neither they nor the moderate protesters come out whole, and that in fact he is preparing the ground for an extreme end of the Ikhouan.

This in contrast with Ben Ali, as my wife said, we are just now appreciating what he spared Tunisia.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 30, 2011

Rached Ghannouchi Returns to Tunisia (with rant on Anti-Islamist Panic)

Exiled Ennahda party leader Rached Ghannouchi was received by enthusiastic crowd when his plane landed. Given that he is somewhat of an Islamist, apparenlty his presence doesn't count as a step towards True Democracy, in the proposals of Robert Satloff, who wants the US to sponsor a new wave of Arab democratic government which would, apparently, not allow any non-secular or at least Islamist party to participate. In other words, the same thing all over again, a Ben Ali, only with multiple parties. Rant below, on anti-Islamist Panic.

Continue reading "Rached Ghannouchi Returns to Tunisia (with rant on Anti-Islamist Panic)"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

January 29, 2011

We're Back: Whole New MENA Universe Open Thread

Our members have been distracted, and we went a bit supine, but we have been in the loop for latest developments, which we at Aqoul were not surprised at, though the timing, like such things, could never be precise. Anyway, as our esteemed members chime in with entries, do have at the latest developments in comments below. And if your comment is the usual sh*t-in-pants "what if these uprisings all turn Islamist like Iran?" Just type in "Cliche concern A" as your comment and save on bandwidth.

Bonus: Nice call out on Christopher Hitchens idiocy.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:23 AM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

July 29, 2010

Turkey & the old empire (Turkey and MENA)

Slyly referring in the title to some of the crazed political commentary coming out of hard right Israel circles, but I genuinely find this interesting. The Turkish business engagement with MENA has been building since before our AKP fellow, a natural development.

As Turkey Inches Eastward, Syrians Feel the Love - NYTimes.com

GAZIANTEP, Turkey — Well-heeled Syrians had already been coming to this ancient industrial city, drawn here by Louis Vuitton purses and storefront signs in Arabic. But local shop owners say Israel’s deadly raid on a Turkish-led flotilla to Gaza in May has solidified an already blossoming friendship between Syria and Turkey, the new hero of the Muslim world.

“People in Syria love Turkey because the country supports the Arab world, and they are fellow Muslims,” Zakria Shavek, 37, a driver for a Syrian transport company based in Gaziantep, said as he deposited a family of newly arrived shoppers from Aleppo, which competes with Damascus for the title of Syria’s largest city and is about a two-hour drive from here. “Our enemy in the world is Israel, so we also like Turkey because our enemy’s enemy is our friend.”

The monthly pilgrimages of tens of thousands of Syrians to this southeastern Turkish city — which intensified after the two countries removed visa requirements last September — are just the latest manifestation of the growing ties between Turkey and Syria, part of the Turkish government’s efforts to reach out to its neighbors by using economic and cultural links to help it become a regional leader.

Turkey’s shift toward the Muslim world — from the recent clash with Israel to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s description of Iran’s nuclear program as peaceful — has prompted concerns in the United States and Europe that Turkey, an important NATO ally, is turning its back on the West.

But in Turkey, where 70 percent of all exports go to Europe, businesspeople insist that the government’s policy of cultivating friendly ties with all neighbors reflects a canny and very Western capitalist impulse to offset dependence on stagnating European markets while cementing Turkey’s position as a vital economic and political bridge between east and west.

Emphasis added. Quite so. I recall again a recent conversation with American diplomats that I ran into that were in high dungeon after snubs to some Israeli delegation that they - the Americans - were pimping in the region. Leaving aside the queerness of why the Americans were so very solicitous of an Israeli delegation's meetings (they do seem to forget it is a foreign country, and one never sees quite this solicitousness for other allies), their view that Turkey was 'turning against them' was just boggling. As was their apparently genuine surprise at the reaction to the Gazan flotilla event (as if one of their own citizens had not been killed, well one of the wrong religion and ethnicity it would appear); entire and myopic misread of the Turkish relationship and influences.

Indeed, most Arab states, including Syria, enthusiastically support Turkey’s bid to join the European Union, viewing Turkey as a vital intermediary to Western markets that might otherwise be off limits. At the political level, Turkey’s influence in the Middle East is also deeply enhanced by its strong Western ties — a fact recognized by Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, who shocked many in the Turkish capital this month by warning that the latest crisis between Israel and Turkey could undermine Ankara’s role as a mediator in the region.

I also believe this is largely true. 

While it is a bit of journalistic .... shiny new objectism to point to this as entirely new after the Gaza debacle, there is certainly a real development. Shall try to return to further comment on the article, unfortunately on a plane the next two days.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 17, 2010

Global Arab President Pimping Network

This site has been popping up on my google robots for some months now. The more it does so, the more I become irritated by it.

Global Arab Network | IMF: Tunisian President Ben Ali's program strengthening financial system | Finance

IMF: Tunisian President Ben Ali's program strengthening financial system
Friday, 16 July 2010 13:22
Tunisia_Bourse
Tunisia (Tunis) - Global Arab Network has received the International Monetary report on Tunisia. According to this report, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s program includes as an objective the strengthening of the financial system . The program focuses on four major themes (consolidation of the fundamentals, increasing banks’ presence in the economy and improving banking services, restructuring the banking system, and promoting the presence of Tunisian banks abroad).

 This sort of transparent puffery really is boringly irritating.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 14, 2010

North Africa / Maghreb & Desertec (mega solar & wind plans)

I confess I was rather dismissive of Desertec when it was announced but am becoming less so. The mega plan I don't see happening (if only because the idea of Algeria and Morocco on one hand and Libya and Egypt on the other being able to come together on this kind of integration is at present somewhat comedic). However, for certain countries the potential to be the "points" or leads on a semi-stand alone basis in the near to medium future... Well that is looking better. Morocco and Tunisia, maybe Egypt (Egypt being problematic if only for distance and interconnections, whereas Morocco and Tunisia have less issues here).

Gregor Czisch on the super-grid | FT Energy Source | FT.com

The idea of a wholly renewable electricity supply, using a system that spans Europe and North Africa, is gaining ground.

There is scepticism, of course, about the variability of wind and solar power, and the cost of deploying the infrastructure. But several studies in the past year have shown how a good geographic blend of sources might make this possible, and perhaps even cost-neutral – and replicable around the world. Big energy equipment vendors are forming consortiums around both the Europe-African super-grid and ‘Desertec’, the idea of a massive solar project in the Sahara desert.

Is there the needed capital? Dunno, but people are becoming more interested.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:00 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

France & Niqabs: Show your face

Having mixed feelings about this, as I have no love for Saudi ninjette wear nor other things called 'burqa' (contra the head scarf, which is harmless, the Saudi inspired all-ninjette wear is a sign of problems). At the same time this takes a small minority and makes them martyrs to their mistaken (or misbegotten) cause. That is a mistake.

FT.com - French lawmakers approve ban on full veil

French lawmakers approve ban on full veil


France’s National Assembly on Tuesday backed by a crushing majority a bill banning the wearing of the full face veil in public spaces, a garment which politicians across the political spectrum regard as a symbol of religious extremism.

The vote – by 335 to 1 – takes France a step closer to becoming the first democracy to ban women in the street from wearing the niqab or burka. The Belgian parliament is planning a similar clampdown while Spain is proposing to curb the full veil’s use in public buildings.


The bill will now pass to the Senate in September where it is likely to meet little resistance. However, even once enshrined in law it is almost certain to face an eventual legal challenge on the grounds that there is no constitutional basis for an outright ban in public spaces.

....
The vote is testament to the political consensus in France against the full veil even though it is a marginal phenomenon – only 2,000 women out of a Muslim population of some 5m are thought to wear it.

....

However, some Muslim community leaders suspect a ban may simply stigmatise all Muslims.

.... the differences between government and opposition on the issue of a “burka ban” are small: the socialists want a ban only in public buildings and services, rather than an outright ban, which they fear could prove unlawful.

France’s Conseil d’Etat, a body that advises on the constitutionality of laws, warned the government earlier this year that “no uncontestable legal basis can be found for an outright and generalised ban on the wearing of the full veil”.

The bill does not specifically ban the face veil but prohibits anyone from wearing an item of clothing to hide his or her face in open spaces, including streets, shops, parks or cafés as well as in public services such as town halls, schools and hospitals. Offenders face a fine of €150 ($191).

Emphasis added.

A number of items here. Last one first, this evidently is a law that can (and if it can, will) be used for purposes well beyond its original aim. Fines on say street anarchists (hmmm, well I'm almost in favour of that, but liberty is liberty), pretext for legal action against persons with legitimate desires to remain anonymous, etc.

Otherwise, why a law what amounts to a handful of persons? Prejudice in the end. French lawmakers spending time on this is sheer idiocy relative to France's more pressing problems. The only explanation is hysteria and bigotry (2k of say 2.5m women is a minute, infinitesimal percentage, it is literally absurd to be concerned about this to pass a national law).

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:40 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 11, 2010

WB new report to chew on: FDI restrictions in MENA (& global)

Just noticed this alert. I shall have to sit down and chew on this. Although there are limitations to such efforts, necessary to have a standardized comparison across the globe, I am finding these new private business environment orientated databases WB is developing to be quite interesting and useful (whatever their flaws, they help bring some greater objectivity than is available from many bespoke private efforts that often are quite... marketing oriented).

FDI restrictions stifle start ups: World Bank report - International Business Times

-- In Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa, completion of procedures by foreign companies consumes twice the time required by domestic companies.

No kidding. Never-mind the shitty little functionaries that see the foreigners as walking pocketbooks.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 04, 2010

Realist Orientalist Art (19th C) & the MENA Market (art mkt)

A decent article from FT about the popularity of realist Orientalist paintings in the MENA region. This comes as little surprise I should think to anyone who's lived out here for a while. I've found that in upper-middle class homes (& above) there is quite a taste for these kind of reproductions - and yes, the realistic works that 'ring true' (and with little squeamishness as far as I have observed about 'sensitive' subjects like slave markets).

FT.com - Bidders dig deep to buy Orientalist art

The 2008 “Lure of the East” exhibition at Tate Britain, which showcased Victorian-era paintings of the Middle East by western artists, was the subject of intense criticism. Media commentators excoriated scenes depicting slave markets and harems as condescending imperialist fantasies catering to lowbrow tastes.

But in the Middle East, these denunciations have not affected the local art market. Auction houses are scouring the globe for Orientalist art, which is riding a wave of rising valuation. Some 70 per cent of the buyers are Arabs, says Isabelle de La Bruyère, director of Christie’s Dubai-based Middle East headquarters. But buyers in the region prefer more realistic works rather than obvious fantasies, she says. “Middle Easterners tend to buy images they can relate to, painted by people who actually travelled to the region,” Ms de La Bruyère says.

I should say that I have always rather liked the realist - historical Orientalist works of the late 19th century - it's fairly easy to discern which painters had actually done some serious observation and travelling versus the passers-by. And I have always thought that the standard Western (ahem, American) Academic hyper-sensitivity to "orientalism" and likening to neo-Imperialism is vastly overdone. The Neo Imperialists that merit the name (the 'Neo Conservatives' of the US hardly give a bloody damn about such things.

I would think that there is a degree of nostalgia for the past in the acquisition of said paintings as I have found that it is mostly the modern oriented that acquire (perhaps it goes without saying that the neo-traditional Salafi types never seem to go for this...), as a kind of visual touch-stone to a past that is at once proud but also at its tail end, an embarrassment for its backwardness.

Regardless Ms McMororrow gets it right here (I'd say fairly accurate, but let's not be peevish)

Art in the Arab world has traditionally meant textiles, carving, stonework and tiles, not paintings, and depictions of the human figure are especially rare. “That’s why there is a thirst for this market,” Ms McMorrow says. “These are quite accurate depictions of street life, landscape, costume and general design. That’s where a lot of the interest comes from

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 06, 2010

Class Demographics Explain Better MENA/Muslim Integration in USA?

The Washington Times, not normally a spurting fountain of Muslim-friendly coverage, praises the relatively successful integration of Muslim immigrants in America when compared to that of Europe. (The newsstory mostly concentrates on inter-faith dialogue, but the broader implication of better relative integration (e.g. “melting pot”) in America comes through loud and clear.) While I do enjoy a nice dose of American exceptionalism, and I do think it may apply here in some ways, let me nevertheless throw out a less nationalistic hypothesis on relative integration levels. I am too lazy and busy to find and crunch the appropriate numbers and surveys to confirm or refute it, but here it is: Could some of the relatively better Muslim/MENA integration in America be simply due to the fact that Muslim immigrants there have tended towards the educated professional and middle class, rather than being a large class of laborers as may be the case in lots of Europe?

Continue reading "Class Demographics Explain Better MENA/Muslim Integration in USA?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:20 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

March 27, 2010

Ongoing Social Vents: Yemen Child Marriage, Saudi Poetess Scolds Muftis, etc.

Molestation Contestation: Yemen Battles Over Child Marriage Laws.

Muftis Get Rapped: Poetess Socks It to the Jeddah Valley PTA. "I have seen evil in the eyes of fatwas. . . barbaric, angry and blind, wearing death as a robe cinched with a belt".

Non-Mideast Non-Muslims Riot Over Non-Danish Video Images. But, but, but,only Muslims get violent when imagery of their sacred founder gets offensive, right? Others never do that, at least these days, right? Occasionally elsewhere too though, theatrical performances can also unite a few Muslims and Christians (see last paragraph) in shared death-threat issuance. This must be what is meant by the unifying power of art. . . .

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 23, 2010

Explaining the Day to Day Mechanism of Popular Anti-Coptic Bigotry in Egypt

Blogger Nadia Elawady relates the ordinary day to day practices of shunning and mythologizing that nurture anti-Coptic prejudice among Egypt's Muslims. " I remember befriending Mariam . . . Quickly my [fellow] Muslim friends explained I could not befriend her. She’s Christian, I was told. So what, I asked. In Egypt, it’s not all right, was the answer. By the end of that same year I had heard my Muslim friends say it was yucky to drink out of a cup a Copt had drank from; they explained that the way to identify a Copt was by their odd smell and their oily hair. . . " One can infer from her post that such things are increasing and are pervasive among the more educated classes.

Continue reading "Explaining the Day to Day Mechanism of Popular Anti-Coptic Bigotry in Egypt"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:34 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 19, 2010

Ah, a warm and fuzzy feel. : Blogs as sources of info on Gulf Finance

While in some ways sad that we (Aqoul) missed that boat - no matter I am far too busy to pretend to that any more, this warmed my heart: FT.com / Companies / Financial Services - Blogs air views on stifled Gulf finance

Great understatement though:

Blogs air views on stifled Gulf finance

By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi

Published: March 3 2010 16:44 | Last updated: March 3 2010 16:44

Local media coverage of financial affairs can be anodyne in the Gulf, largely thanks to stifling press laws, corporate meddling and a culture of self-censorship. But financial blogs are starting to proliferate and can offer a valuable, alternative, take on events.

Many local newspapers, with a few exceptions, print newswire stories or press releases verbatim and often steer away from contentious, politically sensitive stories. Blogs, meanwhile, have given many locals and expatriates an outlet for venting their views on the stories of the day.

“Blogs are definitely useful in the region, but are only coming of age now,” says a senior analyst in Dubai. “I always look at blogs to get a sense of grassroot sentiment and hear the views of other people.”

Most regional financial and economic blogs and forums are in Arabic but several English-language sites have emerged. One of the first was Sharewadi, which is mainly devoted to financial talk and data in the United Arab Emirates, and is in many ways the prototype of similar websites that have sprung up across the region.

...  “That guy at Sharewadi deserves a medal,” says Ken Monahan, a former senior banker in the Gulf. “There has been some really insightful stuff on there over the years.”  ...

 There is a need for more robust discussion of company financials in the region.”

Emphasis added.
On the highlighted, no bloody kidding.

Although one item that caught my attention is re Arabic language blogs on finance. Could anyone recommend those worth reading? I have yet to find one, but I must confess that I became turned off on the tripe usually written on economics in Arabic that I stopped looking seriously.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Citi, Citi: First the Algerians, now the Gulfies

Not perhaps deeply interesting, but someone in my business I was enterained:FT.com / Companies / Banks - Citi seeks to fix Gulf business

Citigroup has operated in the Arab world for almost 50 years and the Gulf came to the rescue of the embattled bank in the early stages of the credit crunch when the sovereign wealth funds of Abu Dhabi and Kuwait pumped billions into the US-based lender.

However, the relationships with two of the world’s largest institutional investors have since soured.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has filed an arbitration claim against the US bank, alleging that it was the victim of “fraudulent misrepresentations” over its November 2007 investment.

Add to this the Algerian government and its mega fines against Citi (for trivialities) and this just does not seem like love.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 16, 2010

Guy Fakes Salafism in Yemen & Spills the Hummus on the Goings-On (Real and Imputed)

Not exactly a Black Like Me story, but an American a-religious white guy writer sham-converts (or reverts, if one can do that shamically) to a salafi Islam in Yemen to study the natives and non-natives there, including Americans who go over there for Islamic or Arabic education. One was the guy who shot up the Arkansas military base. Aqoulite Shaheen takes down some of the odder generalizations and assumptions of the sham-converter down below in the comments. (A modern tip of the whig to commenter Antiquated Tory for the link at Global Post.)

Continue reading "Guy Fakes Salafism in Yemen & Spills the Hummus on the Goings-On (Real and Imputed)"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:12 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

March 14, 2010

MENA M&A Cross Border Deals and State Structure

Toying around with financial data, a summary table about intra MENA deals since 1992 (it doesn't necessarily include the purely private deals).

A very quick glance reveals an interesting trend: the states which have the least cross border acquirers are Algeria (2), Iraq (0), Libya (4), Syria (1), Sudan (0), Tunisia (1) and Yemen (0). A notable fact also is, the only cross border deal a Tunisian company made was backed by Saudi private equity.

Continue reading "MENA M&A Cross Border Deals and State Structure"

Posted by Shaheen at 09:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 05, 2010

I have a vewwy gweat fwiend in Iswamabad named Biggus . . . .

Life imitates Monty Python's "Biggus" scene in Life of Brian as a proposed Pakistani ambassador to Saudi Arabia is rejected due to what his name sounds like in slang Arabic. Do you feel the need to titter when I say the name of my fwiend, Akbar..... Zeb? He has a wife you know, her name is Incontinentia. . . Incontinentia Teez. Sorry for the Python references.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 28, 2009

Wehbe 2.0: A Whiter Shade of Palestinian?

(Apologies to Procul Harum (Haram?) for whom, unlike the Palestinians, 1967 was good year.) With a lot less denial than the late Michael Jackson, Palestinian women are reported to be aggressively consuming skin-whitening products. This, according to The Christian Science Monitor, which also cites and links to the recent lament about anti-dark skin sentiment among Arabs written by Nesrine Malik in the Guardian (UK) not long ago and also blogged about here at Aqoul. The pigment adjusting phenomenon appears partly inspired by such figures as the scintillating Lebanese chanteuse/statesperson Haifa Wehbe (ok, I made up parts of that description, just to irritate) and the Xena: Warrior Princess dark-hair/alabaster-skin aesthetic she can manifest, and which she shares with better example Nancy Ajram, the pendular-beaked former AUB Biophysical Engineering Department-Chair turned-singer (ok, made up some stuff there too). Anyway, jeez louise, the issues we humans can hinge our self-estimation on and make a mystique out of! But I do admit to getting seriously worked up if any blind fool even suggests that TIna Louise's Ginger was hotter than Dawn Wells' Mary Ann.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:57 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

December 23, 2009

The Algerian State's Ongoing Score Settling: The Orascom Tax (or how dare you sell your assets on the free market-Whitax, you dumb Egyptian bastards)

While without having direct access to the Orascom dossier, this charming news item amuses me  Orascom Telecom suspendu à la décision du fisc algérien sur sa filiale algérienne OTA - Economie et Business - Tout sur l'Algérie (Orascom Telecom in suspended animation waiting for the tax decision on its Algerian affiliate) 

Generally speaking it seems clear that the Algerian Gov't (to the extent there is a coherent policy), has gone into a fine 1970s "soaks the foreigners" and favour political economic actors (1970s again, ah the youth of Boutef...),  Marchés publics : le gouvernement veut réduire la part des groupes étrangers - Economie et Business - Tout sur l'Algérie (Public Markets, the Government wishes to reduce the market share of foreign groups). The article charmingly notes that the Government is looking to revise the rules on tendering so as to give priority to "National Firms" (not defined but without doubt favouring state firms who can't otherwise compete...)  - and without doubt exceptions to "strategic partners" such as the Chinese firms that import most of their labour.... What's disturbing here is that the Algerian government is attacking the most effective investors in the economy, the investors who have produced real value, and remaining silent and complacent regarding the Chinese that frankly are rather less employment generative in their contracting and investments. It's sad (and counter productive) that the Algerian state remains trapped in a reactionary cycle with France,

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:17 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 18, 2009

Yglesias on Friedman

I cite this comment in full. It is precisely my feeling. With "friends" like Friedman one hardly needs enemies: Matthew Yglesias » Friedman’s Civil War

Friedman’s Civil War

I think I lack the words to adequately express how morally outrageous Tom Friedman’s call for a Muslim civil war is. But we can at least focus a bit on how factually inaccurate it is.

A couple of days ago, a suicide bombing in Pakistan killed 27. In July, militants hit a Pakistani hotel killing eleven. On December 8 12 were killed in Multan. That same day 100 Iraqis were killed in car bombs. Back in 2006 and 2007 there was regular fighting between Hamas and Fatah in which hundred were killed. And of course there’s ongoing violence in Iraq, in Yemen, in Sudan, and in many other Muslim countries.

Any normal person would conclude the obvious—Muslim-majority countries are suffering from an excess of civil wars most of which have some element of religious overtones. There’s quite a lot of violence and fighting. And it’s bad. People get maimed and killed. Children are turned into orphans. Hospitals and schools and productive infrastructure are destroyed. And while moral culpability for bad acts always adheres primarily to the bad actor, the fact of the matter is that the dominant theme of US foreign policy since 9/11 has been to intensify and exacerbate these conflicts, leading to vast quantities of death, destruction, and displacement.

Of course Friedman, the all knowing moustache, is not a normal person.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 15, 2009

Can't Haq It: Saudi-Israeli Collaboration To Stop Invader Bots

CAPTCHA, those squiggly letters on website and various user-i.d. portals you have to figure out and type in order to access something cybernetic and which ensures you are not a "bot" made out of silicon yourself, has been hacked. To the rescue now is a team so diverse, some have to kill each other if called into belligerent military service. But using 3-D animation and soon presenting in the land of anime, they may yet save us from the diminishing security of having to puzzle out a green angel-hair pasta version of "quetzlcoatl" and then type it in when we forget a password on gmail.

[R]esearchers at Tel Aviv University - part of an international team - have developed a "synthesis technique" to overcome the "bots" by generating images of animated 3-D objects that are detectable by humans but difficult for an automatic algorithm to recognize. The team . . . included colleagues at King Abdullah University in Saudi Arabia, The University of Delhi in India and researchers in Taiwan.... Their findings are being presented this week ... in Yokohama, Japan

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 03, 2009

Charming Bigotry around Islamic finance

The level of paranoia from this American Likoudnik over 'Islamic' finance is ... amusing if also rather sad. As regular Aqoul readers know, I am not great fan of Islamic finance, considering it at best to be an awkward fiction (at worst, a grave error financially speaking). At the same time the writing here is absurd: The Threat of Shariah-Compliant Finance - David Yerushalmi - The Corner on National Review Online

Now it is The National Review, which as far as I can tell is a cesspool of far right lunacy in the US, but this mixture of financial illiteracy and grotesque abuse of language for what is in the end blind religious bigotry:

The Threat of Shariah-Compliant Finance [David Yerushalmi]

....

What makes this story more than simply one of a massive real-estate-investment company gone bad is the double-edged sword so prevalent in the chase for oil-based Middle East wealth: sovereign wealth funds and Shariah-compliant finance.

...

Another phenomenon that followed the great Oil Rush of the post-9/11 era was the promotion and aggressive exportation of a Muslim Brotherhood doctrine called Shariah-compliant finance (SCF). SCF or “Islamic finance” was first articulated in the mid-20th century by men like Sayyid Qutb of Egypt and Abul Ala Maududi of Pakistan, both of whom argued for a jihad against Westernization and for the creation of Islamic polities that would ultimately join in a hegemonic global Caliphate, with the goal of establishing Shariah not merely as the supreme law of the land, but as the supreme law of the world.

Continue reading "Charming Bigotry around Islamic finance"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:29 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

November 30, 2009

Dubai, a succient "why the impact"?

This from FT's Lex "Dubai and sell":

So why the panic? There are sensible explanations. The first is that after a too-quick-to-be-true recovery from the biggest meltdown for generations, Dubai is a reminder the world is not out of the woods. A large default in some faraway land reinforces the sense that another shock can come from anywhere. Second, the news is slapping investors out of their silly belief that emerging markets deserve risk premiums barely above developed ones. Finally, Dubai is a warning not to assume investments are always state-guaranteed, even in this age of government largesse.

Emphasis added

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:41 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

November 29, 2009

Dubai, oh My IV: support, non-support and haircuts

First as noted on Suq Al Mal the UAE Central Bank stepped up with some panic stopping emergency facilities. Although I am now en route back home and away from the centre of the storm, I am certain the expat chatter and potential for panic driven bank runs was (is) there. Also from NY Times U.A.E. Will Support Banks in Dubai Credit Crisis some further detail also at FT. As Abu Arqala noted, issuance of a public statement during the Eid holiday is not ordinary, indeed rather extraordinary.

Second, I have been chewing on the question of bailing out Nakheel or letting it die. On one hand, abstracting away from fears of setting off a crisis, I fully believe the idiots that financed Nakheel fully deserve a nice splash of ice cold water in the face. Balanced against that, however, is my fear that the more sober emerging markets in my zone of MENA will be semi-innocent collateral damage, largely due to the rather clumsy and stupid way that Dubai has handled this (highlighting the fact that behind the facade of modern marketing, the regime has not genuinely modernised its attitudes towards communication, it's all Medh all the time). Prepping the grounds better for the bad news, rather than an unprepared statement before a long set of international market holidays probably should have seen the Nakheel event go somewhat more smoothly (or at least not have the immediate panic).

Continue reading "Dubai, oh My IV: support, non-support and haircuts"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:38 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

November 28, 2009

Dubia, oh My III: Ongoing thoughts.

First, from comments, the author of this post : Suq Al Mal: Dubai US$5 Billion Debt Sales - Less Than Meets the Eye and An Explanation for the Restructuring at Dubai World helpfully draws attention to some very key details that deserve wider attention (as i have not seen them raised elsewhere).

In particular this:

It seems that the US$5 billion sale was actually US$2 billion in cash now with the promise to buy the remaining US$3 billion over the next year.

I rather find this and other details confirming that the easy "Abu Dhabi will ride into the rescue of Dubai" commentary is far too superficial. (As this Reuters story on "aid to Dubai [from Abu Dhabi] 'case by case'" ; "... a senior Abu Dhabi official said on Saturday [that] "We will look at Dubai's commitments and approach them on a case-by-case basis. It does not mean that Abu Dhabi will underwrite all of their debts," ...."Some of Dubai's entities are commercial, semi-government ones. Abu Dhabi will pick and choose when and where to assist," he said.")The Cousins in Abu Dhabi will want their pound of flesh from the Al Maktoum. I'd suggest that commentators looking at this in a purely theoretical framework of sovereigns etc are going to miss important parts of the intra-family dynamics that will definitely complicate things (and note, more of the Al Maqtoum have been moved into Dubai positions of late, technocrats losing power). Too many bank analysts in Dubai have the critical analytical sophistication of high schoolers, merely asserting their hope of unbounded Abu Dhabi largesse as the analytical anchor (of course merely asserting absurdly optimistic base case scenarios was long par for the course in Dubai).

Otherwise, this post in FT's Alphaville quoting a rather sharper analyst in Dubai posing the question of whether the real depth of the debt hole is known is worth a read. It also raises the contagion risk that I touched on. I'm a lot less sanguine about that risk than the analysis there, as this as a  calculated manoeuvre as Dubai's position may not resolve well - given all the ingredients of the intra-Emirati family fight over control and power, family struggles tending easier to ugly fights. Note, for example, from FT.com / Middle East - How the Dubai crisis unfolded

November 26

Global markets slump on fears that any Dubai default could trigger contagion in other emerging markets. There is still no comment from the department of finance, except to insist that DP World is ring-fenced. Bondholders, led by a New York hedge fund, start to organise themselves to appoint legal advisers to communicate with Dubai World and mull legal action to recover assets.

Then, at about 11pm local time, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman of Dubai’s supreme fiscal committee, breaks the emirate’s silence with a curt statement saying that he understands the concerns of the markets but is determined to take decisive action on Dubai World’s debt.

“The government is spearheading the restructuring of this commercial operation in the full knowledge of how the markets would react,” he says.

(emphasis added).

Otherwise, some other comments of interest, from FT.com - Dubai gambles with its financial reputation relative to financial investors who've taken a narrow analysis:
 

The emirate’s inability to repay also casts a shadow on the Maktoum family’s vital relations with its cousins who rule Abu Dhabi, the al-Nahyans, who seem to be letting their poorer kin sweat it out in public. One wondered what price Abu Dhabi might demand for a full bail-out. One plausible option was a tighter union among the seven UAE states, with maverick Dubai forced to trim its embarrassing ties with Iran and Israel. Dubai might also have been asked to merge its independent customs service into the federal bureaucracy. Sheikh Mohammed may be calculating that Dubai’s foreign policy freedom is more valuable than its financial reputation.

There is logic in this. The bankers in London and New York have been important in nurturing Dubai’s growth. But the emirate’s ties with the region – Karachi, Mumbai, Riyadh and Tehran – are those that will make or break this city.

(emphasis added)

Of course the Al Maktoum just made the lives of their Gulf cousins and neighbours rather more 'interesting" which is certainly going to make this process more complex than someone sitting at a monitor in London might think. Also relative to the process, this observation from FT.com  Editorial - A breathtaking blunder in Dubai:

... Instead of these Ivy League-educated whiz kids, he [the Emir] has fallen back on his family, the court and the traditional merchant class. .... Although, like everything else in Dubai, it was unexplained, it was interpreted as recognition that the emirate had over-borrowed and over-reached. Yet, it is not obvious that the way to re-establish credibility with the markets is to follow this up with a runic message on deferring debt repayments – and then disappear on a four-day public holiday.

Indeed, but it is easier to understand as an internal Emirati "settling of accounts."

Also worth quoting, from the same,

Why Dubai World felt the need to defer repayment of a $3.5bn Islamic bond of its Nakheel property subsidiary is also a puzzle.

Abu Dhabi stumped up $10bn in February; two of its banks bought $5bn in Dubai paper on Wednesday [NB: see quote above]; a $1.9bn bond issue was three times subscribed three weeks ago; and Dubai is planning to return to the market next month for a further $1.25bn. It has the money to meet its obligations – unless its debts are significantly greater than stated. Until now, moreover, there has never been any doubt that Abu Dhabi – senior partner and censorious older brother in the federal United Arab Emirates, owner of the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world (worth perhaps $900bn), and sitting on one tenth of the world’s oil deposits – would stand behind Dubai. Dubai World’s biggest creditors, furthermore, are down the road in Abu Dhabi.

Yet, the Abu Dhabi authorities appear to have had no inkling Dubai was going to spring this surprise, which is already having devastating results. The cost of protecting Dubai’s paper against default has quadrupled – putting the emirate in the same league as Iceland – and the credit ratings of its leading companies have been downgraded. Yet the fallout in raising the cost of insuring sovereign debt has spread not only across the Gulf but throughout emerging markets. This is a mess.

Something here does not add up. Why would Dubai risk such damage to its reputation when the recovery of its still viable entrepôt model depends on the confidence of the capital markets?

The answers are doubtless found not on the capital markets, bond traders in London and New York are oft useful dupes...

There is also an interesting set of questions about the Islamic finance angle to this, and a rather misplaced bit of confidence in those instruments.

Continue reading "Dubia, oh My III: Ongoing thoughts."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 27, 2009

Dubai oh my, Bis Default & Logic

Obviously in financial and economic circles the debates are raging like nobody's business on
(i) The technical default (or effectively asking for it, even as an optional choice, it is a "credit event"), why
(ii) Timing and thinking

So far, I think everyone feels that it must be driven by some serious dissension between the Dubai and Abu Dhabi families, and Al Maktoum decided to go nuclear (probably rather than pay a serious pound of flesh in lost assets to Abu Dhabi). A "My pain is your pain" calculation. Also they seem to have bizarrely thought that this news could be "buried" over the holidays - very bad miscalculation. Trying to bury it (maybe buying time) after spending the past few weeks talking happy talk (rather than managing down expectations) just made it far worst, as the rumours flying now are really catastrophic.

Of course, a deeper problem may be that Emirates in whole may be more liquidity constrained than they have let on, and as such Abu Dhabi despite its massive pools of capital, feels obliged to bargain hard for its constrained liquidity to begin with. Nevertheless, I favour the Family Argument thesis (between Dubai and Abu Dhabi) that got bitter, thus provoking a stunningly ill-considered decision that was also just stunningly poorly framed and timed.... and presented. Impressive actually the extent of bad actually.

As for Dubai, even if they walk back, Dubai has inexplicably taken a shotgun and fired at its own foot. Best case, they lose some of their own toes, worst case.... worst case they blew off their foot and ours too as this has all the ability to set off Financial Crisis 2008 Part II, at the very least for emerging markets that are heavily exposed to international flows.

This is a nasty event with wider implications, but underlines what I have been saying for years, too much of the Emirates - Dubai story has been of dubious transparency.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:58 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

Dubai, my my. Defaults and MENA

I've been silent for a while, consumed with the rather unpleasant task of wrapping up an office (whose staff is mystefied by the exit, as they did better than forecast numbers, but that's another story), however Dubai's staggeringly stupid decision to suggest defaulting on debt
has too much juice to miss, in particular as I am in Dubai right at this very moment (although flying out very shortly). It's really quite a stunned place, and I think except the boot-lickers who'll justify anything, there is much befuddlement. Adding more later.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:24 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 23, 2009

The Color of Monkey: Egyptians Draw A Bead On Haifa

Guardian (UK) angel Nesrine Malik tells of lyrics by an Egyptian writer, sung by sultry songstress Haifa Wehbe, that refer to a child pining for his "Nubian monkey". The term, supposedly referring to a toy, is apparently tied in with long-standing negative color-race attitudes among lighter-skinned Egyptians and other Arabs towards the swath of swarthy Nubians in Egypt's south, and blacks in general. Nubia's bias guardians have requested some sort of legal sanction against the song. The issue brings to rare local public airing the color biases of much of Middle Eastern society, or in Ms Malik's words, the "endemic culture of racial stereotyping in the region ". It apparently also extends to a standard of beauty that elevates a "light-skinned, catty-eyed and slim-nosed" Lebanese look, though the description of the Haifa Wehbe song as "a mindless children's tune sung by an equally vacant performer" does suggest that the term "catty" is not restricted solely to the field of ocular esthetics. (PS -- Just love those commenters below the article at the Guardian. Sheesh.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:53 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 13, 2009

East & West Side Story: Is Beirut Really Back?

Hype, snipe, or just type, o informed ones, about this Levanity fare. What say you to the Beirut toot in Guardian , UK?

It's beautiful, Beirut, beautiful and ugly and pock-marked and damaged and glamorous and unstable and exciting and just a bit mentally unhinged. It's the Elizabeth Taylor of the Mediterranean. Or it would be if you replaced the words "alcohol" with "Israel" and "a string of unsuitable marriages" with "15 years of civil war". . . . Beirut is back.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:40 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

October 25, 2009

No Justice, No Chick-Peas: Lebanon Closes Hummus Gap

Lebanese culinary artistes have outdone their southern neighbor in making the largest ever hummus. No word on the size of the bread needed to dip, but it would certainly have to be one humongous kiloton of pocket bread, which, as we all know, is pita, an Israeli invention.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:06 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 31, 2009

Egypt - Religious Flexability

New York Times has an interesting article, built around an interview with Gamal al-Banna, brother of the famous Hassan al-Banna... on "diversity" in views being published relative to religious thinking: Hints of Pluralism Begin to Appear in Egyptian Religious Debates .

I am not entirely convinced of the thesis, that with alternative media, a more liberal, flexible face is getting published or read more than in the past. Perhaps, but Gamal al Banna's thinking, as thumbnailed in the arty, strikes me as relatively typical of the sort of thing that the prosperous, confident middle class and elite say in private. Not in public, but in private. Or among intellectuals of whatever social class.

Now, one thing that is most important is the lack of official cover:

It is difficult to say exactly why this is happening. Some of those who have begun to speak up say they are acting in spite of — and not with the encouragement of — the Egyptian government. Political analysts said that the government still tried to compete with the Muslim Brotherhood, a banned but tolerated Islamic movement, to present itself as the guardian of conservative Muslim values.

My observation is it's better to not have official encouragement. In general in the MENA region, to have official encouragement in religious areas is almost automatically to going to discredit you. What one does need is simply official forebearance (i.e. not hauling you off to court as an apostate).

Nevertheless, while I have some doubts as to the real current penetration of more liberal approaches to religious thinking (I might call it lifting the dead hand of salafism and returning to real thinking), it is without doubt a real opportunity to have fairly free press and alternatives outlets at least airing ideas.

“Salman Rushdie was less of a disaster than Sayyid al-Qimni,” said Mr. Badri in a television appearance on O TV, an independent Egyptian satellite channel. “Salman Rushdie, everyone attacked him because he destroyed Islam overtly. But Sayyid al-Qimni is attacking Islam and destroying it tactfully, tastefully and politely.”

But this time Mr. Qimni did not go into hiding. He appeared on the television show, sitting beside Sheik Badri.

 Whether the promoters of the ideas will have the street cred to successfully moved forward, well....

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:13 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 24, 2009

Maghreb, MENA: What standards' for progress & development

Following on an interesting discussion in comments in reaction to this 'Aqoul post: Some old controversies: Morocco & Models, and Bloggy overreaction and preciousness I thought I would bring forward some of the questions posed for further discussion.

The essentials rest on how to assess progress in the Maghreb (and MENA of late).

As noted in the discussion (copied at end of post, below the jump), reform has certainly slacked of late in Morocco, but against what benchmark should we judge this?

Some other questions, items for consideration:

1. Quality of Governance
2. Tension between Technocratic Reform led by business leaders, and capture of government reform by oligarchs (who happen as well to be good technocrats)
3. Economic Reforms & Untouched Oligopolies
   
4. The State of Educational Reform
5. Pushing out / deepening progress to reach the Great Inland areas
6. Affordability of life in the transition
   
7. Next steps in consolidating growth
   

Continue reading "Maghreb, MENA: What standards' for progress & development"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Xref: Moroccan Rapper in NYT...oddly

Just a side ref: Lounsbury: Moroccan Rappers make NY Times.... oddly More at Lounsbury.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 20, 2009

Lewistful Thinking Reconsidered: A Conversion Narrative

However valuable Bernard Lewis may have been as a historian, his influence on recent academia/military/political thinking vis a vis MENA, has always been horribly worse than useless, but nevertheless quite significant. This account of a former academic disciple's ditching Lewis when encountering reality is worth reading if only to hear that when he encountered reality on the ground "with Bernard Lewis and Samuel Huntington as my guides, I ha[d] no way to make sense of such an encounter."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 17, 2009

Some old controversies: Morocco & Models, and Bloggy overreaction and preciousness

Rooting around I ran across this arty Morocco makes peace with its past. - By Anne Applebaum - Slate Magazine via  Global Voices Online » Morocco: An Alternative to Iran? and the Poor Alternatives - Morocco Board News Service. Intrigued I thought I'd take a look at the arty from July on Morocco. Oddly, I found it not bad, not anywhere as much as implied by the fulminating against it.

Welcome to the kingdom of Morocco, a place that, in light of the last two weeks' events in Iran, merits a few minutes of reflection. Unlike Turkey, Morocco is not a secular state: The king claims direct descent from the prophet Mohammed. Nor does Morocco aspire to be European [NB Lounsbury: not any longer, although Hassan II had an amusing demarche to tweak the Fr. in this respect] Though French is still the language of business and higher education, the country is linguistically and culturally part of the Arabic-speaking world. But unlike most of its Arab neighbors, the country has over the last decade undergone a slow but profound transformation from traditional monarchy to constitutional monarchy, acquiring along the way real political parties, a relatively free press, new political leaders—the mayor of Marrakesh is a 33-year-old woman—and a set of family laws that strives to be compatible both with sharia and international conventions on human rights.

The result is not what anyone would call a liberal democratic paradise. One human rights activist painted for me a byzantine portrait of electoral corruption involving "mediators" who "organize" votes on behalf of candidates. Others point out that if the demonstrators I saw at the parliament had been Islamic radicals or Western Saharan guerrilla leaders, rather than trade unionists, the police might not have been quite so blasé. Though women have legal rights, cultural restraints remain. A tiny fraction of the population reads newspapers, even fewer have Internet access, and somewhere between 40 percent and 50 percent of the country is illiterate in any case. As a result, election turnout is very low. Political posters feature symbols, not words.

Emphasis added: Constitutional Monarchy? Mmmmmm. Maybe.  [edited to correct some systems errors]

Continue reading "Some old controversies: Morocco & Models, and Bloggy overreaction and preciousness"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:22 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

August 12, 2009

Morocco & The Poll, encore

I noted with mixed feelings that Global Voices picked up my somewhat intemperate remarks (habitual as that may be) on the Morocco poll. Being somewhat allergic to too high a profile: Global Voices Online » Morocco: Bloggers React to the Banning of Magazines 

In some ways the idiocy of the ban in fact was at least logical and almost... brave. On the part of the No Comment on the King partisans. I mean, banning a largely favourable poll at least has the flavour of consistency and principle. After all, it is a useful one insofar as relative to liberal critiques of the King, the Palace can easily point to the poll and say, Ha, but for me things would actually be less liberal as popular opinion is distinctly unliberal - which is of course absolutely true and for anyone in the region not a suprise. That abstracts away from the question of whether Authoritarian Liberalism [ironic eh? - of course liberal only in certain areas] is a good or bad thing.

Before turning to Minister Naciri's habitually cretinous public comments to Jeune Afrique and the at least reasonable call for a "dialogue" about press, a side word. Branding the anti-banning movement as "Je suis un 9%" (I'm a 9 percenter) was profoundly stupid on the part of the critics. Really, profoundly stupid. Just as cretinous as the Government's ham-handed reaction to the poll (and its clumsy, tone deaf public comments).

Powered by ScribeFire.

Continue reading "Morocco & The Poll, encore"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 09, 2009

The Real Itchin' in Religion: Not the Text, Stupid

Some insightful, as in "I wish I'd said it" commentary, some days back by blogger "Thoreau" at Unqualified Offerings. Adapted below from a lead post and then some later comment by him, he notes in passing some things of direct relevance to those who look at issues of religion and violence and traditionalism, etc. specifically as regards the largely Muslim Middle East and the alleged Muslim requirement to go forth and jihadify. In sum, the idea that people are driven, or even set their norms, by some robotic response to purported permanent religious injunctions in the sacred writ is non-real world, i.e. not religion as actually practiced by real people anywhere. (And to add to his commentary, I would note that most sincere religious observance/piety/consciousness in people tends to proceed from the poetic part of the individual human character as well as the social and cultural.) His discussion started with the tension alleged between religion and science; see below the break here for fuller quote.

Continue reading "The Real Itchin' in Religion: Not the Text, Stupid"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:56 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 03, 2009

Morocco: The Cretin Wing of the Makhzen strikes back (idiotic censorship

I just noticed old friend Ibn Kafka's note on the Moroccan Government seizing Tel Quel (a local weekly that is addicted to shock journalism) Le sondage interdit au Maroc - The Poll Banned In Morocco.

In grosso modo, it appears that the Cretin Wing of the Makhzen decided to seize Tel Quel (I have never thought much of Tel Quel, it never manages to go beyond its addiction to shock journalism, and frankly I don't think much of the reporting in areas where I feel well placed to judge - hardly though a reason to seize and destroy the edition).


Ben Kafka notes

Larbi, le bloggeur qui bloggue plus vite que son ombre, a publié une dépêche AFP révélant quelques résultats plus détaillées du sondage que l’Etat marocain refuse de voir publier dans la presse marocaine (sachant bien évidemment que n’importe quel crétin et sa belle-mère pourront le lire sur le web)/ Larbi, the blogger who blogs quicker than his shadow published the AFP article revealing some of the more detailed results of the poll, that the Moroccan state refused to see published in the Moroccan press (understanding evidently that any cretin and his mother in law can read it on the Web.

See also Le Monde.

I'll put this in English later as well as some more comments, but this is truly moronic. The poll is in fact rather positive for the Monarchy, and banning its publication really reeks of the worst idiocy possible. However, it does reflect the old-school Makhzen mentality that remains deeply entrenched in the government. While the King (M6) has his faults, gross and obvious stupidity has never seemed to be one of them. (Subtler forms, perhaps arguable, although I remain favourable disposed to-wards him, I mean look at his confrères...)  However, the  bootlicker Naciri went for broke. So yes, all the world should know that the Makhzen bootlickers could not stand the idea of the Moroccan population knowing that an international poll found "only" 91% approval relative to M6's first decade. More on the poll later as well.

Old stupidities die hard.

[Ahem, two typos correct 15 Aug 09, accidentally wrote Ben Kakka... sorry mate, entirely an accident)

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 01, 2009

In the annals of pointless: Chinese State TV Starts Arabic Channel

I am oddly curious about this:
Chinese State TV Starts Arabic Channel - NYTimes.com

The 24-hour channel, which began operating Saturday, will air in 22 Arabic-speaking countries and reach nearly 300 million people, China Central Television said in a statement. ... 

The effort has a budget of 45 billion yuan, or $6.6 billion, according to a report last month by The South China Morning Post, a Hong Kong newspaper.

The Arabic channel will carry news, feature stories, entertainment and education programs and will gradually expand its offerings, CCTV said. The network already broadcasts in English, French and Spanish as well as in Mandarin.

Hmmm, 99% chance this is an utter waste, but I am oddly curious about it. Might even motivate me to reprogram my Sat TV receptor.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:01 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 31, 2009

Poor Mauritania, the sad man of the Maghreb (your coup leader elected, world leaders... shrug)

It has to hurt Bidane sensibilities that even in Maghreb circles, I think more serious attention is being given to Gabon and its succession than to Mauritania (Yes, yes for the Maghrebine readership, a slight exaggeration, but I submit only slight): Coup Leader Aziz Set to Win Mauritania’s Presidency in Election - Bloomberg.com

Former coup leader Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz is set to win Mauritania’s presidential election with 90 percent of votes counted, according to his spokesman.

The only possible point of interest for the world in general is perhaps the Al Qaeda fil Maghreb security angle, but there is re Israel some small fulminating (largely by people who have nothing particularly better to do) about Ould Abdel Aziz's non-friendly orientation vis-a-vis Israel and the probable end of the fairly brief Maure flirtation with Israel (Embassy, etc.). I would suspect even for Israel this will actually (except among professional hand wringers) be met with a bemused shrug (and probable relief from the poor bastards posted to Nouakchott).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 06, 2009

Obama Talking to Just Arabs/Iran/MENA?

So says the Jakarta Post. That's in Indonesia. Jakarta, that is, not the Post. Well, the Post too but there are Posts everywhere.

At least three - democracy promotion, religious freedom and women's rights - of his seven points are more relevant to a region who's [sic] governments are bastions of despotism than [to] the average Indonesian,. . . . for the majority of Indonesians - Muslim or otherwise - these three issues are fundamental ways of life already held dear. . . Not surprisingly Indonesia's most eminent Muslim thinkers were products of Western scholarship, not Al-Azhar or Arab Universities . . ..But in Cairo he put an Arabic frame on a cultural dialog which most Muslims may not relate to.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 02, 2009

Emirates Torture, goes "global"

Well, it appears that the Abu Dhabi ruling family has gotten itself into a pickle with one of its more "tradition" minded royals. That is the torture video of Sheik Issa bin Zayed al-Nahyan. The age of youtube and fast diffusion of such media wrongfooting their Emirates image-branding. I confess when I saw this on FT etc I rather shrugged, thinking that the Emiratis would PR their way forward as usual. Certainly the medieval behaviour wasn't very surprising: Videotape Complicates U.S. Deal With Emirates - NYTimes.com

The videotape — first shown last week by ABC News — has provoked outrage from members of Congress, who said it could add fuel to lawmakers’ reservations about a pending civilian nuclear agreement between the United States and the United Arab Emirates, the seven-member federation on the Persian Gulf to which Abu Dhabi belongs.

Now, while it is probably true the source - who by name is almost certainly a Levantine, I'd guess either Palestinian and/or Lebanese [not being a binary choice per se] is without doubt somewhat slimey,

The videotape, made in 2004, emerged in a separate lawsuit filed by Bassam Nabulsi, a former business partner of Sheik Issa. Mr. Nabulsi, an American citizen from Houston, claims he was later tortured by Emirates police officers after he refused to hand over the videotape.

The tape was made by Mr. Nabulsi’s brother on orders from Sheik Issa, who liked to film torture sessions and watch them later in his palace, said Anthony G. Buzbee, Mr. Nabulsi’s lawyer.

In its statement, the government of Abu Dhabi — the emirate to whose ruling family Sheik Issa belongs — promised a “comprehensive review” of the matter. It also said the government “understands that the matter depicted on the video was resolved between the two parties and that no criminal charges were brought by either party.”

The man being tortured in the video is Mohammed Shah Poor, an Afghan grain merchant who Sheik Issa believed had cheated him, Mr. Buzbee said. Mr. Poor was gravely injured but survived, Mr. Buzbee said.

....

Daryl Bristow, Sheik Issa’s lawyer, said in a statement that “Bassam Nabulsi and his lawyer are attempting to use a videotape of a third party to influence the court and public opinion” about the lawsuit. He added that he could not comment on details because of the suit, but that “when all the facts are known, the one-sided ‘story’ being told by Nabulsi and his lawyer will be completely addressed and Nabulsi will be discredited.”

However, the fine British lawyer really should have come up with something better than Nabulsi being "discredited" - here's a hint mate, your client is on video torturing someone over a commercial transaction, and it seems highly likely that there is more video (that is they are not bluffing); one rather has to credit the probability that the client did like getting videotaped engaging in his medieval commercial dispute resolution. As such, even if Nabulsi is a total scumbag - and the fact he (or his bro) filmed torture sessions makes that near certainty - no 'discrediting' is terribly helpful to your client (well in court maybe, but one rather suspects the least of his problems is the actual court case).

This is one of those moments where lawyers should know to keep their fucking mouths shut. Second observation, do not let a lawyer be your PR person.

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:56 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 27, 2009

Googley Moogely Arabic

Okay a stupid title, I should let Hogan do the puns and pun related humour. However, some items on this FT arty
FT.com  Google aims for bigger Arab audience

Internet usage has jumped 1,000 per cent over the past seven years in the Middle East, yet it still lags well behind other regions. Overall internet penetration has reached 10 to 12 per cent, although with the region’s large number of shared connections, up to 50 per cent of the population is estimated to have access to the net.

Google, the internet company, hopes to provide the tools that will help users to increase the amount of Arabic content online.

Leaving aside the numbers, which may or may not be dodgey, it is interesting that a heavy weight like google is coming to Arabic.

Some further comments:

Continue reading "Googley Moogely Arabic"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:19 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Tarnishing the Emirates Image?

FT.com Video of assault draws fire for UAE

The incident threatens to tarnish the reputation of Abu Dhabi. It also poses questions about the rule of law and impunity in a nation dominated by powerful families.

Hmmm, perhaps I am overly cynical, but isn't this exactly the image of the Emiratis?

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:49 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

April 25, 2009

Economic Crisis & Stability: Maghreb and MENA Frings, the end of the Emigration Boom

Two articles not immediately evidently related, but speaking to similar issues. That is the impact of the global financial crisis on the emigrant populations from the MENA and MENA Fringe to either wealthy regions or Europe. The article on the Spanish situation suggests there could be a significant reflux back, but Europe differs from the Gulf example - the FT arty on the Pakis - in that the immigrant communities are older, many have permanent residency that is not employment connected (Gulfie style disguised indentured servitude).

As Jobs Die, Europe’s Migrants Head Home - NYTimes.com

That changed in the decade-long expansion that began in the late 1990s. In Spain, where the growth has been the most explosive, the foreign population rose to 5.2 million last year out of a total of 45 million people from 750,000 in 1999, according to the National Statistics Institute. Ireland’s population, now 4.1 million, was also transformed, with the percentage of foreign-born residents rising to 11 percent in 2006 from 7 percent in 2002.

“In the U.S., it took generations to build up a foreign-born population of that size,” said Demetrios Papademetriou, head of the Migration Policy Institute, a research group in Washington. “These countries have done it at an unprecedented rate, but the society and institutions haven’t even begun to have a chance to catch up.”

FT.com - Hard homecoming for Pakistan’s expatriates

The downturn in the Middle East is forcing large numbers of Pakistani expatriate workers to return home, exchanging lives of comfort for unemployment in a country experiencing political turmoil, growing insecurity and a deteriorating economy.

Those coming back from the oil-rich region range from senior and mid-career staff in banks, consumer goods companies and multinationals, to blue-collar workers such as drivers, labourers and domestic servants.

The financial crisis is reversing a trend of large-scale migration from Asia to the Middle East, especially from countries such as India, the Philippines, China and Thailand.

Continue reading "Economic Crisis & Stability: Maghreb and MENA Frings, the end of the Emigration Boom"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:35 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Al Qaeda fil Maghreb & Generally: Oil facilties as a strategy.

A brief note on potential for Al Qaeda to target oil facilities: Al Qaeda & Oil Facilities in the Midst of the Global Economic Crisis
One item that caught the eye:

. Moreover, observers have noticed the increasing targeting of facilities and workers in the oil and gas sector in Algeria by the so-called “al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb”.

I am not sure this is in fact all that much the case.

Otherwise, the conclusion:

Conclusion

As mentioned above, Bin Laden’ said in 2004 that oil prices should reach $150 per barrel. Legitimizing the targeting oil pipelines, refineries or workers rather than the wells themselves suggests that raising oil prices is a strategy Salafi-jihadists are adopting. In the shadow of bin Laden’s threat of "opening new fronts for the attrition of the economy of the West", it seems that such understanding is not limited to the Middle East only. The African continent is becoming an increasingly important for the diversification of oil production and transportation, as well as is the Caspian Sea region which is critical for diversification of oil resources to the West. However the risk of targeting oil interests, is not confined to certain geographical locations, as it’s associated with a strategy of opening “new fronts”.

According to this understanding, it seems that the targeting of oil facilities by al-Qaeda or affiliated Salafi-jihadists is designed to affect the flow of oil leading to higher fuel prices in the midst of a global economic cris

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:06 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 24, 2009

Orientalist Art Boom: Will this get Aqoul design a cash bid?

From Saudi Aramcoworld comes this report of how middle easterners learned to stop worrying and finally loved the balm of Orientalist art:

In July 2008, Orientalism brought £21.4 million to Christie’s in London, “the highest total ever achieved for this category,” says Alexandra McMorrow, director of 19th-century European art for the prestigious auction house. This included world record prices for seven artists; “bidders from North Africa, the Middle East, India, Europe and America competed fiercely,” she adds. . . .These shifts are part of a larger, gradual, mostly sympathetic reevaluation that has been taking place over the past few decades of much 19th-century European art.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:44 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

April 20, 2009

Algeria: Mr. Comb Over & The Mee Too Container Terminal - Basic Reforms, Rents & Opportunities.

I should be less unkind, but frankly the awful hell that is required of one on every bloody business trip to Algiers (and having just returned from one), makes me disinclined.

Nevertheless, Algeria's copycat (okay not entirely copy cat) development of its port, following what appears to be a successful Moroccan operation at Tangamed has positive potential. FT's arty on DPW "vow[ing] to remodel Algiers port might even be a ray of hope in the otherwise bleak Algerian business landscape.

Might, of course being a powerfully operative word, as I have developed a highly jaundiced view over the years of promises of reform in Algeria. Some key details. [Ahem fixed the title]

Continue reading "Algeria: Mr. Comb Over & The Mee Too Container Terminal - Basic Reforms, Rents & Opportunities."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 12, 2009

Reading Race in MENA: Black Imam of Mecca and American reads

While not a terrible article, the New York Times coverage of the new 'black' Imam in Mecca is subtly irritating for its facile American centric lens. A Black Imam Breaks Ground in Mecca - Biography - NYTimes.com
It's easy to be rather too nitpickily peevish about such things, but nevertheless a bit better context should have been easy to achieve here:

Officially, it was his skill at reciting the Koran that won him the position, which he carries out — like the Grand Mosque’s eight other prayer leaders — only during the holy month of Ramadan. But the racial significance of the king’s gesture was unmistakable.

Sheik Adil, like most Saudis, is quick to caution that any racism here is not the fault of Islam, which preaches egalitarianism. The Prophet Muhammad himself, who founded the religion here 1,400 years ago, had black companions. [Lounsbury: Ahem such as a certain Bilal...]

“Our Islamic history has so many famous black people,” said the imam, as he sat leaning his arm on a cushion in the reception room of his home. “It is not like the West.”

It is also true that Saudi Arabia is far more ethnically diverse than most Westerners realize. Saudis with Malaysian or African features are a common sight along the kingdom’s west coast, the descendants of pilgrims who came here over the centuries and ended up staying. Many have prospered and even attained high positions through links to the royal family. Bandar bin Sultan, the former Saudi ambassador to the United States, is the son of Prince Sultan and a dark-skinned concubine from southern Saudi Arabia.

But slavery was practiced here too, and was abolished only in 1962. Many traditional Arabs from Nejd, the central Saudi heartland, used to refer to all outsiders as “tarsh al bahr” — vomit from the sea. People of African descent still face some discrimination, as do most immigrants, even from other Arab countries. Many Saudis complain that the kingdom is still far too dominated by Nejd, the homeland of the royal family. There are nonracial forms of discrimination too, and many Shiite Muslims, a substantial minority, say they are not treated fairly.

Emphasis added.

While I would be the last to deny colour prejudice is present in the region - MENA, the Gulf, Mashriq, Maghrib - the highlighted part really is myopically American, tying explicitly colour and slavery into an automatic association. That certainly was not the case for most of Islamic history, and seeing the Nejdi prejudices as primarily or even essentially racial strikes me as rather misunderstanding Saudi society (or Gulfie society) via the eyes of American cultural norms.

The colour prejudice is there, but given slavery was except its last decades perhaps, never colour exclusive (although one should not forget that towards the end, the low-end slavery was more or less exclusively African), it is hardly the sole driver, and the profound prejudices against outsiders, including pale Lebs for example, is much more that of a parochial tribal society than the implied counterpart to American or even old European colour prejudice as such.

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:52 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 11, 2009

Is the west thwarting Arab plans for reform?

Answering the question, well.... yes if one wants to grace incoherent and often contradictory aspirations with the name reform... FT: Is the west thwarting Arab plans for reform?

The west’s morbid fear of political Islam has served to deny Arabs democracy in case they support Islamists, just as during the cold war many Latin Americans, Asians and Africans had to endure western-endorsed dictators lest they supported communists. Unless the Arab countries and the broader Middle East can find a way out of this pit of autocracy, their people – more than half of them under 25 – will be condemned to bleak lives of despair, humiliation and rage. Western support for autocracy and indulgence of corruption in this region, far from securing stability, breeds extremism and, in extremis, failed states. It will, of course, be primarily up to the citizens of these countries to claw their way out of that pit. But the least they can expect from the west is not to keep stamping on their fingers.

There is something to be said for this analysis, although I rather seriously doubt that stability can be generated by political change as such.

Continue reading "Is the west thwarting Arab plans for reform?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 23, 2009

Dubai, Bye Bye?: Guardian Lumps Gulf City's Fate with Detroit

Simon Jenkins at The Guardian declares prognosis negative on the ultimate fate of Dubai, which he has slated to be the Detroit of the Middle East, only worse, and largely on an architectural basis. My gut and a brief impression there in real time tend to disagree. But folks with real data and experience are out there. (UPDATE: One of our Aqoul circle opines differently from Jenkins here (disclaimer, author didn't write the overenthusiastic tite). And now, for the Dubai-curious. a bit of Jenkins below the break.

Continue reading "Dubai, Bye Bye?: Guardian Lumps Gulf City's Fate with Detroit"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:56 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 12, 2009

A Maghreb Focused Blog, in English

Maghreb Politics Review

: Seems quite decent on a first look.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 12, 2009

Not Gaza: The Dubai Hangover

First, this post is not about Gaza. Gaza sucks, it will continue to suck with or without the Israelis blowing the fuck out of school children & generally demonstrating that formerly oppressed peoples are absolutely brilliant at using their suffering to justify replicating the same dehumanisation of their enemies du jour (of course MENA & SSAfrica provides less media friendly examples as well) and unless the US decides to stop being the dog wagged by the tail, nothing will change. I remain favourable to expelling everyone and resettling the entire "Holy Land" with Turks, who at least can properly plan religious holidays.

Rather more interesting, the slow motion, semi-disguised implosion of Dubai and its real estate bubble. The FT's recent(ish) article on emerging Dubai Real Estate Scam/Scandals gave me a fine tickle of schadenfreude [let me confess that despite having studied in Berlin, I have to recheck the spelling every time as it never looks right...]. Although this merits further comment (that you may or may not get depending on the state of my business ventures and level of paranoia), it is worth noting that the Great Credit Unwinding, although it initially generated schadenfreude among the Gulf Arabs, is now exposing the fine little house of cards that was Dubai Real Estate. In many ways I rather regret this, as in the end I fear that Dubai's quasi liberalism could be discredited, but they brought this on themselves by losing sight of the core value proposition that made Dubai of 1995-2005 (pls note, I just pulled those dates out of my addled impressionistic memory, they are not serious, one could vary 2-3 years on the end date, start date, eh, I dunno) a real value proposition and standard setter for the Mashriq region with fairly liberal values, ease of business, and not too insane speculation. Then Hubris set in. I think it was somewhere between 2003 and 2005.

Regardless, the potential collapse of Dubai as well as the real damage done to the US and the UK represents serious damage to the Liberal economic model in the MENA region. While the US clearly went off on a bender (and Dubai on a vaguely similar one - my view, hate Real Estate, it appears solid when it is not) the MENA region desperately needs more Liberalism, not less, given the schlerotic regimes and 'regulation' that largely serves as rent extraction.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:14 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

January 01, 2009

New Month/Year/Fiscal Quarter Open Thread

Happy New Year. Continuing here a tradition of sorts, and on some related journals, inviting general open comments, observations, etc. on blog and MENA issues. (A thread specific to the latest Gaza stripping is on a separate track in an entry just below.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:09 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

December 30, 2008

Gaza round, all ye clowns: Open thread

Try to keep the hyperpartisanship down in this more heat than light subject. Observations, etc. on the latest, have at it. But when in doubt, note sentence 1 here again.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:50 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

November 23, 2008

Paternalism & Global Crisis, MENA Boom and ... Bust & the Nanny States

FT's Roula Khalaf, has a fine article on Gulf region paternalism, using the Kuwaiti example, on the stresses of the Petrol States as oil pricing collapses with global demand, and their nanny state traditions catch up. In discussion directly, Kuwaitis asking for the Government to prop up the stock markets.

Continue reading "Paternalism & Global Crisis, MENA Boom and ... Bust & the Nanny States"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 19, 2008

House Niggers: Obama, Race & MENA

First, for regular 'Aqoul readers and contributors, my apologies for the ongoing absence. Think of it as a recharge period. Frankly there has not been much interesting for me to say (that I can say, given most of the most interesting things I would comment on have been rather too 'sensitive' for me).

Second, today's Al Qaeda media event - Ayman az-Zaouahiri's fine little exposition of unconscious (or perhaps not so unconscious) Egyptian and Arab racism in describing Obama as a Abid el Beit, a house slave, using a word (Abd/Abid) that in the East has somewhat nasty overtones in dialectal (versus classical/formal) usage.

I refrained from writing anything on Obama during the election as I rather thought that there was nothing much to add. I suppose this is a moment to add that the reaction across the board to Obama's election was ecstatic, including among the Arab financial professionals I have the most contact with. I should perhaps put up some more personal observations if that seems interesting on the Lounsbury pages, but none of this is terribly surprising (and unfortunately professional obligations prevent me from sharing the best and most revealing reactions, although I should say that I was stunned to discover that the illiterate grandmother of my cousins not only following the
US elections but asking her children for updates on US elections eve and day).

However, the Zaouahiri demarche is interesting to comment on and discuss. The use of a fairly racially charged phrase I found rather interesting.

Continue reading "House Niggers: Obama, Race & MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:39 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

November 09, 2008

Now Hear the Nerds of the Lord: Monks Battle in J'lem

Not since the pocket-protectors flew maniacally in my high-school Chess Team intramural conflict between Star Trek and Star Wars clubs have I seen such a significant Battle of the Nerds (I was Trek). In Jerusalem's Holy Sepulchre, alleged tomb of Christ, Greek Orthodox and Armenian monks have been busted after exchanging hard blows (no relation to child sex scandals, btw).

The monk, who gave his name as Serafim, said he sustained the wound when an Armenian punched him from behind and broke his glasses.

No word on his Rubik's cube, but the monastic mayhem is all part of the long-runnning turf wars of Christian sects over a site that even the big JC walked out of after only three days (theologians debate still what happened to the 30-day deposit). This conflict is dwarfed by the larger mostly Muslim Arab versus mostly Jewish Israeli contentions over the whole city, but could conceivably outsize it in being even stupider. On the other hand, such intra-Xtian things did give us the Crimean War which produced Tennyson's great Charge of the LIght Brigade.

Continue reading "Now Hear the Nerds of the Lord: Monks Battle in J'lem"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

November 04, 2008

Barack Hussein Obama MENA Open Thread

Looks like America's first Hawaiian-bred, Kenyan-derived, Indonesian-educated, 1960s-born, Muslim-middle-named President-elect is about to be. What does the success of Obama/Biden portend, if anything, for the Middle East North Africa region? Obama's foreign affairs team seems not wildly new, at least in terms of the conventional US spectrum. Some discussion has already started on the monthly open thread.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 03, 2008

New-ish Month Open Thread

You know the drill. Try to be as penetrating.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:11 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

November 01, 2008

(UPDATE) Starving for Detention: Pro-Saudi-Dissident Hunger Strike

A hunger strike in Saudi Arabia on behalf of Saudi dissidents in custody is set for November 6-7. It is apparently the first such hunger strike in Saudi Arabia, or at least the first publicly known one.

"To the government, we want to say that you can't put prisoners of conscience in jail without facing consequences," said Walid Abu-Alkhair, a writer and lawyer in Jiddah. "And to the activists, we want to say, you are not alone. We want to show that when you put human rights activists in jail, a new wave will come and take their place."

Food for thought, or non-food as the case may be. (UPDATE: full information release/specifics further down below).

Continue reading "(UPDATE) Starving for Detention: Pro-Saudi-Dissident Hunger Strike"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

October 29, 2008

Seeders of Lebanon? Local Banking System Stability Noted

This NY Times article (may need to register) reports that Lebanon has remarkably stable and well-capitalized banks. In the midst of global turmoil in finance, they have eschewed speculative investments in favor of storing high levels of deposits. This stability has begun to attract hedge funds from outside. But to the untutored observer here, the article leaves open a simpler question -- how do the Lebanese banks make money (i.e. where do they lend for profit)? It appears that the banks are looking to branch out to several neighboring places (e.g.Bank Audi in other Arab lands), but there is little in the article to indicate they do much more than serve as safe places for deposit and as transfer agents for expatriate and diaspora inbound remittances (not that there's anything wrong with that, it's safe and presumably safely profitable via use fees, if any etc.). Otherwise the banks service some of the national debt of $45 billion. Are they simply giant vaults or seeders of a better future? Or might it be both?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:10 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

October 04, 2008

Eyes of Ramadan

A perennial issue at the start and end of Ramadan - who and how to determine it - is fairly well described in this FT article, with the essence of the issue around using eyes (unaided or aided) or astronomical calculations to make the determination, with the differences taking a political edge.

But some commentators now believe the process may be as much about political allegiance as any religious observance. Saudi Arabia, as the birthplace of Islam and the location of its two holiest mosques, has always commanded a position of respect, but even so many Muslim countries have traditionally followed the sightings as determined by their own religious scholars. ....

Several senior figures in Saudi Arabia had supported shifting towards astronomical calculations – or at least using telescopes – in line with King Abdullah’s general policy of reform and modernisation. They suggest that these devices might help produce a reliable calendar in advance, greatly facilitating everything from determining official public holidays to travel plans.

In August, however, the Supreme Judicial Council and Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia voted to reject any “mathematical calculation” of the calendar and issued a fatwa against using any means other than observation with the naked eye.

Countries with close Saudi links followed the ruling of the Mufti in accordance with their traditions. Gulf states, except Oman, often follow Saudi Arabia’s decision. This year, Jordanian religious officials indicated they did not see the crescent at all yet would follow the Saudi ruling in deference to “Islamic unity”.

Continue reading "Eyes of Ramadan"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:02 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

September 30, 2008

Marshall Plan vs Iraq War: Costs

Another trivia about costs: Several sources indicate the war in Iraq has cost about $550 billion so far. Comparatively, the Marshall Plan which helped repel communism in Western Europe by bringing prosperity and stability there, cost $13 billion, which in today’s money is equivalent to anywhere between $100 and $750 billion. Applicability of such a plan in MENA today vs. post war Europe?

Posted by Shaheen at 01:30 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

September 21, 2008

As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA

Well, as we watch the United States nationalise its financial system in fits and starts, rather like the quasi emerging market it has become (I should note that I was amused to read comment somewhere regarding Central Banking and best practice, now that the US central bank has become the handmaiden of its finanance ministry. So much for all that independence talk they've spent the last decade pimping), a moment to look at MENA.

I suppose the Americans can say little about Iran's Gov booting a too uppity Gov of the Cen. Bank, not that one should expect particularly rational comment on Iran from the US at present, regardless.

I must say that the GCC going ahead with the monetary union preps surprised me slightly, insofar as its strikes me their interests are rather divergent at present in terms of policy.... but draft plans and actual execution are not something the Gulf is glued to by habit.

On perhaps the merely amusing side, Rush to the Gulf set to lower salaries speaks to the oversupply of bankers and doubts being expressed that the Gulf is really the boomtown(s) as presented. Dubai rather.... In the same manner, there is a nice set of items to talk about this week, if I get a chance, notably:

1. the first signs the Dubai et all Gulf Property Speculation Game is going to splot;
2. Capital flight can hit even the most well intentioned little financial black holes...even Dubai Land
3. But the oil gusher does allow for very high standards of National Poverty

Continue reading "As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:58 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 17, 2008

Yemen Goes South: Open Carnage Thread

Latest news indicates 16 or so dead in an apparent attempted raid on the U.S. Embassy to Yemen. This account, based on Yemen insider sources who work hard to bring the discussion quickly around to the expected "you need to send us more money, dammit", indicates it was a successfully stopped large-scale raid, and likely it was al-Qaeda (now there's some serious sleuthing!). Comments on the event from Aqoulites, friends, enemies, etc. . . . have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:29 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 13, 2008

MENA & World Food Crisis, A topic to consider?

The "global food crisis" (or perhaps, food commodity price shock, crisis being a bit anticipatory), should be fairly well known to all, although this FT background (index page) is very useful, and of course stories like on the wealthier MENA countries, that is of course the Gulf, buying up land elsewhere to assure food prod have prompted bleating about Neo Colonialism and related inanities.

The item here for an open thread is pondering how Aqoul might ponder..... As I am openly bored of the usual topics, what is to say, has been said in gross modo, barring new developments, while certain interesting things I can't touch as it begins to impinge on actual real interests, as it were.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 08, 2008

On Hidjabs, Sexy or Not (encore), public sexualities etc.

One of our comment leavers drew my attention to this arty by a certain Naomi Wolf, pubished in Egypt in this instance, on questioning typical Western reactions to the Hidjab and the Chador / Burqa...

An interesting article - at first I had this Naomi Wolf confused with the Canadian Leftist git of not terribly similar name, except first - and I think I would largely agree, although it perhaps too readily excuses some items.

Further comment later, must off to meeting go.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

September 04, 2008

Gulf: The Wonderful Lightness of Opacity - Corporate Gov

A bit of analysis of zero surprise to anyone who has done business in the area, but worthy of attention the FT's note - "The transparency shortfall" on lack of transparency in the Gulf.

While on one hand more transparency would be good, on the other hand, the real incentives in a liquidity drenched environment is pretty low. Without real incentives, mere pablum about raising more money from foreigners (why bother) isn't going to drive change. Of course in the medium term it's needed, but human nature is short-termist.

Otherwise, a further item of reflexion and debate:

Kuwaiti and Saudi companies, surprisingly, produced the lowest average scores. These longstanding trading cultures boast the region’s largest pools of liquidity, some of its most sophisticated investors and strong regulations.

One of the metrics used by the research is whether a company publishes annual reports in English. About a third of GCC companies do not, but that rises to 60 per cent in Kuwait and 68 per cent in Saudi Arabia – a large factor in their poor performance.

Companies that publish crucial corporate information in Arabic put a swathe of investors at a disadvantage, the researchers argue.

Leaving aside the idea it is "surprising" that Saudiyah and Kuwait are least transparent (certainly doesn't surprise me, what 'trading cultures' has to do with transparency rather escapes me (never mind the dodginess of the characterisation)., the probable debate point here is regarding use of English (by listed companies) in reporting.

Continue reading "Gulf: The Wonderful Lightness of Opacity - Corporate Gov"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 02, 2008

MENA Economic Futures, & Nitrogen

In honour of Ramadan and food (well not really Ramadan, but I just ate), an interesting FT arty to ponder: Middle East & North Africa - Economy: The food sector’s other growing need which discusses the importance of fertilizers in the global food production matrix and dealing with the relative shortfall of food production growth (or rather food reaching market growth), and ... MENA.

(a rather different angle than this)

There is, though, an additional dependence, as HSBC pointed out in a recent note. Many Middle Eastern countries, short of food and water, are large-scale exporters of a material that could enable those poor countries to grow crops to feed everyone – fertilisers.

And here companies in the region find themselves in a sweet spot. Those with access to gas – an essential input for nitrogen-based fertilisers – are likely to do particularly well because they have negotiated long-term and generous supply contracts, the bank says.

An interesting item for pondering, although phosphates, I have been reading have some relative shortfalls in new discoveries, similar to petrol.

Continue reading "MENA Economic Futures, & Nitrogen"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 24, 2008

MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?

Moving back MENA-ward, I add a rant inspired by long-time discussions here and elsewhere regarding investment in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. My amateur self keeps reading about Gulf or other money chasing things like real estate or hub port facilities, or digging out more of that Texas tea. Now, I hope I don't use too technical economic terms here, but here goes the rant: shouldn't the bulk of this fund dough, including money from superrich nations, be going towards activities where, you know, MENA regular folks will, like, MAKE NEW STUFF and then SELL THAT NEWLY-MADE STUFF TO OTHER PEOPLE for, um, HARD MONEY. That may sound a bit hi-falutin grad-school airy-fairy idealistic, development economics-y, but it needs to be said.

Continue reading "MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

August 19, 2008

Waning Maximalism: Siren Syria

It is always difficult to evaluate the reality of Gulf investments - they are the vapour ware of the investment world, often announced, much less often delivered. However, this Gulf Times arty on Gulfie investment in Syria is nevertheless interesting taken in hand with the recent trips by US bankers, hat in hand, to the Gulf.

While not explicitly connected, there has been major damage to American reputation - and Western banks reputations I would add - in this last year and one can not but think Lebanese Presidents visiting Syria is a bit of realism that but four years ago would have been off the table.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 16, 2008

Georgia-MENA open thread

(Apologies for genuinely accidental labored allusion.) Anyway, Russia has been doing a bit of marching through Georgia, reviving the Cold War-era 1980s for a bit (assuming the decade had ever left). Readers, writers, commenters, members, computer-owners and -operators are invited to share their wisdom on the latest Caucasian occasion, but most particularly in ways it may relate to the Middle East North Africa regions. Iran yawns; Israel lays low; Turks get dissed; Georgia removes its legions from Mesopotamia. And Vladimir Putin has been confirmed as Tsar of all the Russias, every blasted one of them, even those little Russias that fall under the couch cushions.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:10 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

August 02, 2008

Arabic Translation Peeve, vol 200: Is this the Best the Army can do?

Check this out. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Mr. 9/11, provided in Arabic answers to questions in the trial of bin-Laden's driver. Here is what our competent Arabic translators of our front-line fighting forces in the war on terror, as edited by our leading media, in a trial under a global microscope, provide as one answer of his:

“As the American Army (we) have drivers, cooks, crewmen and legal personal,” Mohammed wrote. . . "We also, are human beings ... we have interests in life. ...You can not understand terrorism and Al-Qaida from 9/11 operation.”

Rant below.

Continue reading "Arabic Translation Peeve, vol 200: Is this the Best the Army can do?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:18 PM | Comments (29) | TrackBack

August 01, 2008

His Hair Was Perfect: Werewolves of Gaza

(Apologies to the late Mr Zevon.) Turkey's so deeply meaningful war over hatwear nearly overthrew the government, and apparently its recent being sent to its room without supper is causing the AKP to temporarily write off the struggle, um, whole cloth. But those profound Turkish wars of meaning over hatwear give way to Gaza, where the struggle over the true hair of steadfastness has reached crisis proportions. It appears that Hamas is now shaving the moustaches off Fatah activists, in retaliation for the jackbooted debearding of Hamas loyalists by Fatah. An ominous development for a society already beset by settlers wielding sidecurls in violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention on Treatment of Follicles. Is history so soon forgotten, or are they just returning to their roots? Is it not time to get more bangs for the buck, and yes, rogaine one's freedom? And didn't Munich teach that even a small moustache needs to be stopped early? Turkey has stopped hair-covering, but hair itself remains appeased. Can anyone not see the civilization at stake in all this? What coiffure-textile combination do you feel best reflects optimal social values? Or is this person the secret key to global harmony?

Continue reading "His Hair Was Perfect: Werewolves of Gaza"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:47 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 27, 2008

Turkey: The Islamic Democrat Option & The Court

The Financial Times has an interesting commentary on Turkey and the current court battle against the AKP: Objection overruled: Turkish political Islam fights for survival in court. Of particular note is the decline of the European option and what may be the subsequent damage to political liberalism. It is hard to say what is precisely right here, but my instinct is that the Turkish secular establishment is shooting its own foot off. The gains by the AKP are as much due to simple basic competence as Islamic appeal, and from the point of a view as a model cited now and again in MENA (in MENA, by Islamist parties), this struggle, unlike much Turkish political reference, has echoes.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:50 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

Water, Food & Petrol

Last week, as part of an ongoing series on the emerging issue of food price spikes and food security, the New York Times published an interesting article on Egyptian Ag industry and farming (although pretending to be an article about all MENA....

An interesting if typically journalistically shallow discussion. In general it highlighted why it is terribly difficult to be optimistic about Egypt's future, given an entirely screwed up economy (although yes liberalizing, although inflation and poor management threaten the gains - also this article at greater depth on the economy), and a screwed up Ag system...

The article frames its Egyptian based observations as all MENA, but while certain issues are shared, many are very Egyptian. Certainly Ag is attracting capital flows, although some may be more real estate plays - e.g. the cited Gulfie interest.

Continue reading "Water, Food & Petrol"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 26, 2008

Anglos & Arabic: the bizzaro world of the MEMRIstas

Thanks to The Skeptic, or maybe to curse him as this I missed blissfully, of this special piece of stupidity that the Washington Post published earlier, in which a certain student Pollack whinges on about supposed biases in his Arabic text. A terribly tedious and queer little whinge - why it got published escapes me. Although this text came out I think some years after me own Arabic studies (done in the strange dark years of the Orange), I have encountered the book he refers to, and I have to say one has to be a particularly sensitive Likoudiste to find it objectionable. Boring, perhaps, but objectionable?

Although parenthetically, and perhaps of more interest, I wonder how I fit into our Skeptic's Egyptological scheme when I lived there:

Continue reading "Anglos & Arabic: the bizzaro world of the MEMRIstas"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:33 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

July 12, 2008

The Arab Moderate

The Financial Times' Roula Khalaf wrote an interesting item on former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher's upcoming book, "The Arab Centre."

Khalaf's note is interesting in itself, and almost makes me want to buy Muasher's book, although I rather suspect in the end I'll learn rather little since I was hanging around in the area during Muasher's time.... The main item raised is what does "moderate" really mean when Westerners use the term vis-a-vis the Arab world. I think Khalaf and Muasher suffer from typical over-focus on one item the I-P conflict, but the point of the commentary, that moderate as a label really revolves around a core, that is accepting Israel.

I would add that speaking English (or French) well and wearing a western suit also gets one considered a moderate, or that is persons having the image of Westernisation are 'moderate.'

Continue reading "The Arab Moderate"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:20 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 11, 2008

The USS Liberty: It's back and . . . topically relevant!

The USS Liberty, the American intelligence ship attacked by Israeli naval and air forces in June 1967, is back in the news somewhat, and relevant to the news of the day. This assumes that this story has a true basis. Apparently the subject was raised in a meeting between US and Israeli officials. (For more Aqoul discussion on USS Liberty, go here, wherein I confess my conversion to the more-likely-a-screwup presumption.) Anyway: "According to. . . Haaretz, . . . the Liberty attack was raised in talks regarding Iran, and U.S. operations in the Middle East. . . [It] was agreed . . . that the United States and Israel would want to avoid any sort of 'mistaken confrontation' such as that which occurred when Israeli forces attacked the USS Liberty."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:29 AM | Comments (35) | TrackBack

July 08, 2008

Maghreb-ward, Ho! Gulf investment heads into the sunset

Rudely poaching on turf far better handled by other contributors, I call attention to this article in The National of Abu Dhabi(?) which relates risk/reward considerations of Gulf investment in North Africa, particularly in real estate. Do the observations jibe with reality? Too little fear, too little greed, or too much. Or just right. A good intro for the beginner or just a superficial story? Excerpts below the fold.

Continue reading "Maghreb-ward, Ho! Gulf investment heads into the sunset"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:14 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

July 05, 2008

Dar Fur - Arabs & 'Ethnic Africans' Encore

There is something about the ongoing nonsense coverage of Dar Fur.

It is thus with some satisfaction I share the above "Arab" tribal leaders from this servicable if uneven arty in The Washington Post

The easily best quote is this (if we ignore the confusion of the Fur language speaking group with the idea of Tribe while Arab tribes are cited away (The "ethnically African" nonsense is just plain idiocy, non-Arabic speaking, fine.)):

"The problem is between Darfurians and the government -- this is not between Arabs and Africans," said Abdel Majid Ibrahim Mohamed, a prominent leader of the ethnically African Fur tribe, among the most heavily targeted by the government. "It's the government that is cooking these things up. I don't believe in this Arab and non-Arab description. There are Fur married to Arabs, so there's a social interlocking between them."

"This is not a tribal conflict or ethnic conflict," the nazir concurred. "It's a conflict of interests. And we've been living together for 400 years."

Of course desertification and population explosion are non-trivial added factors.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 01, 2008

New Month, Open Commentary

Well, at least I am paying attention. Rant on. And for those of you who are interested, in Lounsbury the same exists with a perso professional anecdote.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:11 PM | Comments (27) | TrackBack

June 27, 2008

Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble

This Washington Post story nurtures the question: are the recent bubble-like oil price spikes driven by speculative runs on oil or are they driven by a fundamental growth in demand? The supply side, aka Saudi Arabia, claims the first choice and the demand side, aka America and industrialized states, claims the second. My semi-educated wild hunch is that the supply siders' 'explanation (high speculation) is closer to the truth. (UPDATE: Commenter Klaus notes a more recent Krugman column on the same subject arguing that economic fundamentals are primarily driving the price increase.)

Continue reading "Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:23 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 23, 2008

Syria, how we might learn to love profit (or issues in getting away from Leftist rentier exploitation)

The Financial Times has a fine article on Syria Syria see[ing the] benefits of liberalisation that is worthy of some reflexion.

A couple of quick obs up front, given that Syria is moving from an utterly basket case socialist economy (with all the usual emerging markets double talk about 'social justice' that really means protecting the ruling elite and labour elite Soviet style to the detriment of the overall economy and post-revolution or new job entrants), their challenges are major.

Giving the article a quick read, it struck me that this pseudo-liberalisation (or maybe "shopping and not entreprenurial" liberalisation) is probably the very worst form insofar as it will definitely not deliver proper growth, will boost the corrupt rentier elites (I have nothing against entrepreneurial wealth, and related forms, but rent extractors I detest - whether in the most pernicious form as governmentally enabled or via private cartels [that US libertarians tend to forget as a serious issue]).

Continue reading "Syria, how we might learn to love profit (or issues in getting away from Leftist rentier exploitation)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:52 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

June 22, 2008

Islamic Finance Bubble

A quick note, prompted by a very decent set of audio-visual summaries at FT on Islamic Finance, and a note within the presentation that the Islamic Finance industry has not been effected to date by the global credit crunch (although noting exposure to Gulf Real Estate).

It strikes me that as impressive as the growth has been in the past seven years, it corresponds rather precisely with the big Gulf boom driven by hydrocarbon prices. There is much loose talk of huge new Muslim markets, counting up the global number of Muslims - African, Asian, etc. - as potential market numbers (see the articles here). This, like your average "MENA" but really Gulf Fund, playing with regional numbers to inflate potential is utter bollocks. Much boosterism comes from the Gulf, and more from City bankers with a thin understanding of the variations in the Islamic world and the extent to which poorer markets with more liberal approaches to Islam are going to be genuinely willing to pay a premium for services (or be exposed to more risk - although that is more likely to be disguised). Perhaps worth a further discussion, but it strikes me that Islamic finance growth right now is intimiately and almost uniquely driven by asset inflation in the Gulf, that makes everything look attractive.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:18 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

June 19, 2008

KSA Gives Up Dream of Making the Desert Green

Here’s a very interesting article on the waste that the Saudi adventure of growing its own wheat has been. A few quotes:

“Within 12 years, between 1980 and 1992, wheat production grew 29-fold--from 142,000 tons in 1980 to 4.1 million tons in 1992 --making the Saudi desert the world's sixth-largest wheat exporting country.” “Between 1981 and 1993, Saudi Arabia spent a total of $225 billion out of US$420 billion in total oil revenues on defense and security. (…) Maintaining the ruling family is estimated to have cost $4 billion per annum during the 1980s, and more in later years as the family grew”

“For the sixteen years between 1984 and 2000, it may be estimated that the assessable cost of Saudi agricultural development could be put at about $85 billion, representing 18 percent of the country's $485 billion in revenues from oil exports during the period. This huge investment produced wheat at an average cost of more than US$500 per ton. During the same period, the international market price for wheat averaged about $120 per ton. When the waste resulting from abandoning the newly reclaimed and irrigated lands plus four unquantified government subsidies are added, the cost might more than double.”

Continue reading "KSA Gives Up Dream of Making the Desert Green"

Posted by Shaheen at 12:55 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

June 08, 2008

To Qaeda or Not to Qaeda: Terror, Genesis & Reaction

With all apologies for the weak punditry, but with reference to Mathew's fine book review in our reviews section, an interesting article of tangential or no t so tangential relevance regarding American squabbling over whether Al Qaeda is dead or lone live Al Qaeda as a threat. One nexus point in the two discussions, radicalisation - and perhaps a certain purist ideological approach in the US as to 'real' sources.

Continue reading "To Qaeda or Not to Qaeda: Terror, Genesis & Reaction"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:11 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

June 07, 2008

News you can't choose: Items of interest

From our newsroom, discussion of a news clip (and I do mean clip) on FGM support in Egypt.

I think the foreign intelligence hinted at by inside "sources" in latest stories is the other I-word (see other stories from a few years back), and not Iran, as is being assumed.

Humankind's vital war on disliked headgear and neckwear continues as Ataturkville's high court tells girls to take it off, take it all off, since a girl or woman has a right to the integrity of her body (see FGM), except when putting a cloth on her head.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

For those of you wishing headaches, Pipes series on MENA

At the National Review, I haven't the gumption to actually go further myself. However the National Review's summary would seem to indicate he's losing the veneer on his pure bigotry to descend into batty land:

Daniel Pipes talks the odds. The chance that immigrant Muslims and indigenous Europeans find a way to live in harmony? Five percent, says Pipes. The chance that Europe becomes Eurabian, part of the Muslim world? Forty-seven-and-a-half percent. The chance that Europeans reassert control over the continent? Forty-seven-and-a-half percent, once more — and Pipes says it won’t be pretty.

Eurabia...well, I suppose if one gets that special combination of innumeracy and bigotry together, one can seriously believe that Europe is going to somehow become "Eurabia"...

[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:36 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

June 01, 2008

Martyr, She Wrote: Zawahari Slammed For Males-Only Al-Qaeda

Hell hath no fury as a wannabe mujahedah scorned, it seems. Ayman al-Zawahari's comments, that al Qaeda cannot accept female fighters, has alot of pro-al Qaeda women's abayas in a wad. Websites are full of anger over his suggestions that they should be stay-at-home moms, merely nurturing, raising and feeding the next generation of pointless mass murderers. (I don't know if Rosie the Riveter or Zenobia or Xena, Warrior Princess would approve either side in that debate.) Via Thoreau at Henley.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 AM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

May 26, 2008

On Israel & the American Empire

The Financial Times' Gideon Rachman has a useful editorial on the issue of US-Israeli FP issues. I am fundamentally tired of the subject, given the sensation there is some kind of devilish and pointless merrigoround, but this editorial reminded me that once in a not so distant past US-Israeli relations were governed by a certain rationalism. Pro-Israeli, as an ally, but rational and .... well, to be frank, defensible in the balance even in the Arab & Muslim worlds.
Link Fixed bloody whingers

The editorial reminds one that once upon a time the US had influence - in the I-P conflict, and in MENA. My own experience - in the private sector working for US connected firms leads me to agree with this:

Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank, says: “I can’t remember a time in the last half century where the US has had so little influence in the region.”

it is astounding how the tail is wagging the dog, or how little honesty and how much fear drives American policy in the region, and how much harm the Americans are doing to their long term interests (and I would argue, to sane Israeli interests...)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 PM | Comments (36) | TrackBack

May 09, 2008

Get your Kicks / On Beirut / Sects' Dissects

An open thread for discussion of Lebanon at the crossroads . . . again. And who'd have guessed Nasrallah would provide the fireworks for Israel's 60th anniversary? Followup full posts from our expert team are welcome and encouraged, with removing the horrid tasteless lyrics allusion-pun above from its lead position as added incentive.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:26 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

May 07, 2008

Bread & Riots

If you follow MENA news (and indeed news generally) rising food prices, coupled with rising petrol prices, have provoked for the first time in years serious concerns about food availability to the poorer segments of the population. And demos and riots. And when mass demos occur in the Middle East and North Africa, fear of regime stability gets in the air. Serious challenges for a region where the emerging free(er) markets are yet fragile. Nevertheless, the FT's arty today, Mideast reels as hunger outgrows oil earnings is bothersome.

Perhaps the lead is what is the most irritating:

For years, food policy in the Middle East and North Africa was very simple: hydrocarbon exports paid for carbohydrate imports.

A quote that then segues into issues of the non-oil exporters. My irritation is always raised when all MENA is written about as if it were the Gulf. This is not merely sloppy, it leads people, even Sr. persons, to dangerously misconstrue developments.

Continue reading "Bread & Riots"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

May 02, 2008

Funny, She Doesn't Look Bahraini

Bahrain's possible new ambassador to the US has interesting demographics. Not all that amazing if one is familiar with the region outside of stereotypes and post-1948 tensions. Still the background of the former legislator(-tress?), if legislating is what the Shura Council does, might cause some to be unduly surprised.

MANAMA, Bahrain - The only Jewish woman lawmaker in Bahrain is a candidate to become this Persian Gulf kingdom's ambassador to Washington. . . . Huda Nono, a legislator in the Shura Council, said she was among people being considered for the post and referred further queries to the foreign ministry. . . .If Nono was appointed, Bahrain would be the first Arab country to send a high-level Jewish diplomat to Washington. . . . Nono is the first Jewish woman in the Shura Council, a 40-seat body appointed by the king that also has a Christian among its 11 female legislators. . . . Nono replaced her cousin Ibrahim Nono, who held the Shura Council seat for four years.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:33 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

April 23, 2008

Open Thread on Carter, Hamas, and Stuff

Belaboring, distatefully, the last general subject area, we turn to Jimmy Carter's statement that Hamas was ready to accept Israel at some point in some way. Hamas itself seems to disagree. To me, it appears to be a conflict of spin. Hamas will not, for ideological reasons, recognize Israel but they appear to be willing to accept a Palestinian state on 1967 borders, and say they would accept a popular referendum to honor a truce to go no further. With spin, that can be seen as de facto acceptance of the Palestinian Authority's current or future recognition of Israel. Sounds alot like China and Taiwan, actually. (Which situation can erupt at any time, but probably won't as long as mutual prosperity keeps rearing its ugly head.) Anyway, unlike the previous thread where I had a strong opinion and not much time or interest to engage, as I was asserting something obvious, here I am inactive because I have no strong opinion or time, so it is just an open thread for those interested.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:15 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

March 26, 2008

Fear & Food: MENA Inflation (Open Commentary)

I have (as our site authors can verify) a draft on the issues of dating a month - an indictment of my writing time - on this issue (generally), but sadly this has to wait for more free time. At the same time this is a hot and frankly useful topic. Thus, while I haven't done up my proper commentary, an open note on this issue I think useful.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:52 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

March 09, 2008

Favouring Religous Minorities in Emigration - MENA, US, EU & Iran

An issue without an easy answer, with respect to "what is right" as such, raised by a Washington Post arty on US favouring religious minorities in emigration from Iran which to follow the article, has drained the communities.

The essential message from the article, in grosso modo, most Xian and Zoroastrians, etc seeking to leave have largely economic motivations. Hardly news, saw everywhere really. However, the community leaders see their people being drained away (and of semi-amusing note, to a land of immorality... US of A where gays can marry [ahem, well no, but...], horrors to the priest quoted). One wonders what would happen to Iranian Sunni communities given the same chances. What is right here? Rather like the priest, one has to say, well, given a chance...

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 08, 2008

MENA & Race

Worthy of discussion and comment, a comment by Nisreen Malik in Comment is Free (The Guardian) on Race & the Arab world, from a Sudanese perspective. The comments sadly are fairly unenlightening, but certainly the issue of "race" and colour in the Arab World (or perhaps the Arab & Islamic Worlds, etc) is worthy of some reflexion. Of course nothing there is "new" in a sense, but it is good to return to such tihngs now and again.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:19 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

March 07, 2008

Saudi Arapia? Hib-hob from the Land of the 2Moskz

Over at the Washington Post, Faiza Ambah tells the tale of a Saudi hip-hop crew who dream of stardom and self-expression. Unfortunately, their Saudi parents and kinfolk are not so enamoured of these kids now performing a real-life version -- allowing for musical genre differences -- of the movie Dirty Dancing (whose own star is, incidentally and sadly, fighting for his real life).

But even as they rap in praise of Islam and their mothers, and against the war in Iraq and terrorism, their biggest hurdle has been convincing family, friends and Saudi society that they are not simply trying to imitate a decadent Western lifestyle.

Continue reading "Saudi Arapia? Hib-hob from the Land of the 2Moskz"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 02, 2008

Explosions and MENA - never mind the political bollocks

A rather overlooked article, if I am not mistaken, and certainly complementary to my last post from The New York Times on basic cost of living inflation in MENA.

While it is easy to be critical of some simplistic details in the article, never mind background economics, the reality is clear and this anecdotal article conveys it. Basic cost of living in both oil and non-oil states is escalating at rapid rates, agiven global commodity prices in food and basic goods (and, yes, energy), and that is hitting an emerging lower and proper middle class hard.

Worse, this is coming off of barely realised gains in the past 5 years (for the 'new' professional or semi-professional middle or quasi middle classes).

I don't care much for the whanking on about party political manoeuvres in any given country - but if readers want to worry, bloody well worry less about momentary ebb and flow of political liberalisation (damned bollocks if you ask me, cart before the bloody horse). Rather worry about basic cost of living inflation hitting an emerging class of people that could, with a bit of time, actually support and drive economic and secondarily political reform knocking back the rent seeking elites. This is, to be blunt, fundamentally dangerous. Micro-cosmically, a domestic driven development like this in Egypt in the 80s helped driven a minority of Egyptian 'up coming almost middle classes' into radicalism. Flat line poverty and stagnation is less dangerous, ceterius paribus, than almost comfortable people being pushed suddently into stagnation and declinging fortunes. Sadly the American Administration seems incapable of intelligently and pro-actively managing its own (self generated) economic problems, let alone global risks.

Leave aside whanking on about the Awakenings, and other Iraq rubbish - dig into the background on cost of living pressures in MENA - not optimism driving.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:33 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 25, 2008

Economic Development, Foreign Investment and the War on Terror

Oddly via one of my investment robots, I ran across this Op Ed from Zenpundit favourite Thomas P.M. Barnett - a Strat Studies type - on the necessity to focus on promoting growth in MENA, and imp. of FDI. More important than making things go boom.

I shall leave this open to comment. I have some own reactions, which may really resolve to quibbles, to details in the Op Ed, but it is interesting to see this argument.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:15 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 24, 2008

Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism

Worthy of reflexion on larger tensions between economic and political reform in MENA, Bahrain seems to be going through an awkward spot in terms of political and economic reform although it is Bush ibn Bush's Khaliji wunderkind for democratisation. Nothing surprising in this, other than perhaps the qualified support of the opposition (and even that is not terribly astounding as such, given the way publicly expressed opposition generally occurs in Monarchies).

Continue reading "Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 17, 2008

Kosovo flags & Arab Sats

A brief note, the coverage today of the Kosovo declaration / celebrations on Al Jazeerah and on Al Jazeerah was quite interesting: the actual Sat broadcasts focused quite a lot on the Kosovo-American flag pairing and US ... conditional support I suppose. Interesting imagery to be dominating the screen. The US could stand for this sort of positive imagery more often. One does not often get imagery on the Sats of hidjab wearing ladies leaning out of cars waving American flags wildly.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:37 AM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

February 01, 2008

New Month Open Commentary

We passed a rather quiet December and January, but hopefully end and beginning year moments will pass.

On the Middle East and North Africa, well, what can we say? It strikes me that on economic and political fronts we are in a transitional moment. The economic balance, relatively favourable, is changing, and political - international - is somewhat frozen waiting for a new American administration. Perhaps, though, there is more movement than I feel.

Certainly the beginning of 2008 for the Mashreq feels, in terms of Iraq and Israel-Palestine like yet more of the stumbling on without any real movement.. Lebanon teeters still, giving lie to the naive and idiotic comparisons to the idealized analogies to the idealized vision of the Ukranian events.... The Gulf, ah, well that is another situ, but oil liquidity versus dollar depreciation remains a serious tension, and otherwise, petrol dollars dope otherwise uninteresting economies. Egypt, that requires another comment, the Maghreb, fragile movement, and Algeria behaving like the museum piece it is - it is sad when the Algerian regime makes Mubarek's look relatively competent and forward looking. But then hydrocarbon liquidity allowed them to get away with an utter fiasco of a privatization process whose main message was Caveat Emptor.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:40 PM | Comments (28) | TrackBack

January 25, 2008

The Lounsbury View: US Elections and MENA

There was a comment - question or comment together really - a few days (hmm, weeks, well no matter) on the US elections pre-selection cycle and MENA coverage. Let me make a perso observation and let other commentators from region opine in comments. First, I have been far too focused on financial to pay attention to whanking on about US politics, whose importance is largely macro-political (that is late nights are not spent with Al Jazeerah on).

This being said, operationally or 'conversationally' speaking, I would say that there is but passing interest in MENA, except among those circles that may be qualified as political junkies and high enough placed to care at this stage. Now, while I circulate there, it strikes me that aside from a passing fascination (in the weakest terms) with the Obama-Clinton dogfight, this is too arcane to follow. The impatience to see the Great Incompetent out, of course is palpable in all quarters, including US.

Continue reading "The Lounsbury View: US Elections and MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:49 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

January 18, 2008

Media criticism and blaming the victims

A new issue of Arab Media and Society is out, and well worth a look. I found the long article on mulid music in Egypt, basically inshad remixed as dance music, fascinating (here's their extended mulid dance party mix), and this piece on the rise and fall of London as an Arab media hub was quite good as well. Also noted without comment is my review of Al Jazeera correspondent (and ex-Marine) Josh Rushing's ghosted autobiography.

However, I want to take issue with AMS editor Lawrence Pintak's opening editorial.

Continue reading "Media criticism and blaming the victims"

Posted by tomscud at 01:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 29, 2007

Happy Holidays, Your Flats Flattened, Off Plan Of Course

While the headline news for "the Broader Middle East" if one accepts including Pakistan in that is certain to attract much learned and unlearned comment (1), some fundamentals of real estate market development, or lack thereof, attract my attention. Flats flattened, off plan, if I may indulge in grim humour as the death toll from a Christmas Eve apartment collapse continues to rise nearly a week after. This hearkens back to a "classic" as eerie signs it: Cairo's Collapsing Buildings. Again, a story of a collapsing block of flats, and doubtless gross underlying corruption.

However, gross corruption is not all, as without any question the heritage of Egyptian State Socialism is as much behind the sad, indeed grossly depressing tale of Egyptian economic and social development since Nasser. Under such circumstances, where secularism was historically effectively synoymous with the ded hand of the vampire state, it is no surprise American efforts at backing faux democracy trickled away into the sand in the face of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Continue reading "Happy Holidays, Your Flats Flattened, Off Plan Of Course"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 28, 2007

Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work

Finally figuring out what anyone here could have told them years ago, US forces in Iraq have earned at least a B-plus in Empire-Building 101 -- not that that's a good thing, but it can salve a sore wound for an indefinite period. The principle is to use local power structures as your surrogates, basically by bribing them. This USA Today story details it well. (Thanks to a Klaus call, we have a link for the original stick-figure anti-insurgent plan offered by a later-killed US soldier here.)

Tribal sheiks . . . have seats on most of the city councils and the provincial council. . . . Many tribes run construction and trucking businesses and benefit from U.S. and Iraqi government reconstruction projects. The contracts with U.S. forces allow sheiks to hand out jobs, and thus maintain power.

Continue reading "Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 04:39 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

December 16, 2007

Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure

Not often do I get to be more right than Jim Henley, but here I claim it though I can't document my earlier growing sense that The Surge would turn out better than we cynics first expected. (The last time he was wrong, which goes back years, so was I, as when he predicted that Ariel Sharon would not go through with the Gaza withdrawal.) But now he is surprised that violence has not rebounded in Iraq since The Surge in a way he has predicted. I am far less surprised however and, although I started as a Surge Cynic as shown here, I have come to feel after more information that there has been a good chance of some sustained suppression of the violence. More on why, below.

Continue reading "Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:58 AM | Comments (28) | TrackBack

December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

Continue reading "NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 08, 2007

Citigroup: "Arab" Capital, Need and Fear

With the good apparent news that , as FT commentator Ferguson put it, World War IV is off as the warmongering Right Bolshies in America have had their arguments castrated, and a moment on the weekend, I think it useful to take an economy moment to reflex slightly on on Citigroup's rescue by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and the effective non-reaction of the usual suspects such as congenital cretin Mr Schumer. Now, the non-reaction somewhat wrong-foots my own commentary two months ago anticipating great hysteria, but perhaps the promise to be "silent" as an FT arty put it placated the professional cretin. Or perhaps rather his handlers in NY understood Citi's shaky state and shaped the reaction, so very different than either his reaction to the investment proposed in Nasdaq or last year (2006) with Dubai Ports World (also at the opening for more explicit Schumerism).

The contrast between in particular the round up of reaction in the Schumerism link and the non-reaction to Citigroup is interesting. Fear of banking collapse and grinding halt to the queer American use of houses as credit cards perhaps partial driving explanations on the political side, but my speciality is not American politics, which I care little about except where it has MENA blow back. Unfortunately given a near decade of utter cretinism on the Americans part in this respect, this is too frequent.

Continue reading "Citigroup: "Arab" Capital, Need and Fear"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:59 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

November 27, 2007

Annapolis Semi-Open Thread

In Annapolis, Maryland, USA, another round of peace efforts commences in the Great Intra-Semite Parking Space Quarrel ("You have 22 other parking spaces!"/ "Well, you're not really a car!"/"God stamped this ticket!"). It -- the conference not the quarrel -- will last for "as long as [Rice] feels there is a good, solid and productive discussion." Have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:43 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

November 08, 2007

Jasim & The Argot Naughts: Why That Name in Iraq?

I come up with naught when I search memories of Eastern Mediterranean Arabs and their dialects, patois, and argots, for Jasim and variants as personal names. Yet every single flippin' story from Iraq has someone named Jasim in it. What's the deal with that? (And yes, my worst allusion-pun ever.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:28 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

November 07, 2007

Communicating MENA

Following a somewhat, ahem, impaired reflexion but understanding not everyone reads me Lounsbury blog, I thought it useful to raise this issue beyond our usual "Monthly Open Comment," and reflect on communicating MENA issues to the ordinary Anglo-Saxon World, the US of A being particularly important given the bombers - rather like the old dreadnoughts of yore, etc

The question that kicks us in the bloody cojones is: "What is our bloody motherfucking bloody value add?"

We can get quoted in Belgravia or chez Andrew Sullivan, but it is easy being in style or not as it were, and to lose track of the real value of a "MENA blog" - and one that bites all the hands that can feed it. If we are not delivering added value...well what is the fucking point?

For me, if we can provide a collective input that is at once local and international but neither Islamophobe nor Islamophile (to say more clearly non-partisan because personally I bloody well hate both parties - indeed to be frank, eerie and I are agreed on this point for our...Islamic Agnosticisms). If that is useful, well I am bloody well fucking happy to risk a real job. But after two years and a bit of fatigue (and staggering transfer to the Cuban rhum sector) we need insights as I have zero doubt Aqoul is interesting and unique (machallah) but...voilà.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:25 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

November 03, 2007

Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington

I have to borrow from the discussion on the previous thread the quotation below. It's from a book review of at-best mixed value but by someone with the knowledge to make the statement. Tell me its assertion is false. Please, God, please......

Continue reading "Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

October 24, 2007

MENA Reform: Reform is Dead, Long Live Reform

In part provoked by stunningly irritating conference call with idiots (aka known as 'funders") and in part by getting this piece of silliness emailed to me by some of the same participants, the recent naming of a government in Morocco (for which you can see some useful French commentary chez Ibn Kafka, whose 2nd home at Aqoul sadly awaits the intervention of a mystery writer coming out with a stunning review of some Somali chick...) is a moment to reflect on reform, via this flawed although not entirely useless article in FT (if one closes one's eyes to the idiocy of quoting the USFP). I will add that yes it is clear that England is clearly stringing together his series of quotables, poor bastid is a bit at sea.

First, in preface, let me say that I have long held the opinion that political reform can not really take place except when driven by economic change. At the same time, my dear Ben Ali in Tunisia shows that economic progress without political reform in our MENA region, well can go down a blind alley to be polite.

Continue reading "MENA Reform: Reform is Dead, Long Live Reform"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:20 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

October 07, 2007

In Defence of Liberal Society & Hijabs, Fashionable or Not

A long delayed note, as I meant to write on this during the summer, but business intervened. Nevertheless, a moment of reflexion and a strange title perhaps, given my self-confessed dislike of the hijab (as all too often ostentatious worn on the sleeve religiosity - but not always, thus one reason for the note). However our dear site mistress's note on perhaps the need for showcasing fashionable (that is to say, not self-negating nunnish habits) hijabs and the like, and a coincidental bit of to do in blogosphere about hijabs provoked some reflexion (however tardy).

I should note that it was this rather stereotypical 'oh isn't liberating the girl took off her hijab' and 'oh isn't it oppressive she put it back on' comment from an English teacher formerly in Rabat. Stereotypical of course as its the typical Western (and very secularized MENAite elite) reaction. It is also near pure bollocks as such, mistaking something between religious choice - mistaken or not - and perhaps fashion, as indicative of "liberation" or not. Sadly, fairly typical imagery. Taking off the hijab, liberation. Putting it on, Male Oppression. [fixed the bloody link as well]

[Added Reference 8 Oct:: Worthy of some reflexion, Women of Birminghamabad find identity in FT relatively recently, from its ongoing and refreshingly non-hysterical Muslims in Europe series]

Continue reading "In Defence of Liberal Society & Hijabs, Fashionable or Not"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:13 AM | Comments (32) | TrackBack

October 04, 2007

USS Liberty sort-of followup: Chicago Tribune

The Chicago Tribune does a service by giving the USS Liberty-attack veterans a full say. As I discussed many weeks back, the case deserves full fresh investigation. At the time, I shared my own developing conviction that it was more likely than not a case of culpable mistaken identity rather than a willful attack on an American ship (at least when it was ordered). The article erodes that conviction somewhat -- I'll downgrade mistaken identity from "buy" to "hold" -- but essentially the attack-with-foreknowledge argument often goes back to the same flaw: the belief that merely by defeating the "innocent mistake" claims by Israel and Fans, the only other conclusion is Israeli foreknowledge of the ship's American-ness before the attack began.

Continue reading "USS Liberty sort-of followup: Chicago Tribune"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:41 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

October 02, 2007

Victory of Image and Capital: Emirates & Hollywood

Quite frankly while not entirely surprising, the Time Warner - Abu Dhabi Entertainment Hub (or city in Dubai parlance) does not strike me as a match made in heaven.

On one hand the Emirates are sucking in a certain kind of talent, but I have a hard time believing that the cost issues in the Emirates plus the lack of a vibrant real culture, a salon and artists culture as it were, can make this anything but "a 6,000 acre theme park" rather than a space "to produce Arabic-language film, TV and video games" (well maybe video games, although I still imagine doing video game Arabization is likely cheaper to do in say Cairo or even better Amman, although maybe one puts HQ in Abu Dhabi for money raising purposes).

But that the idea is being floated speaks to the problems of getting investment off the ground and also, ahem, doing business in much of the region.

Continue reading "Victory of Image and Capital: Emirates & Hollywood"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:42 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 22, 2007

America's Crusade to Drive Away Arabo-Muslim Investment

Senator Schumer, ignoramus and fear-mongerer at large whose understanding of Dubai, whore entrepot of the Gulf, is that it's Al Qaeda central: "Dubai has been cited as a nexus for terrorist financing and money laundering and a 'potential crossroads' for shipping and trading linked to Iran's drive to obtain nuclear materials and technology"

Evidently despite representing New York, his literacy in matters financial is also terribly limited (or he merely is one of those Phobics post 11 Sep who are smart enough to dress up their fear of all things Islamic in other clothes), for Dubai taking a stake in NASDAQ really means fuck all (other than they're likely to be soaked just like the Japanese were in their Rockefeller Centre / NY buying spree...).

Continue reading "America's Crusade to Drive Away Arabo-Muslim Investment"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

September 13, 2007

Iran War On the Way: More Evidence

It appears that I may have been right to call attention to those saying a war on Iran is being rolled out by the Administration. An informed and expert source in DC affirmed it to me as well a few days back. And it looks like the usual suspect sources are now marketing it. (Love the part where we can mysteriously tell that the Germans really want us to attack even as they back away from sanctions against Iran. Saying "no" when they really mean "yes", those Teutonic teases!) Michael Ledeen appears to be the one whose job is to incite the converted; he who says that al-Qaeda and Iran are interchangeable terms and at one point called Dubai, an "Iranian colony". Man, all them dang camel jockeys are the same and interchangeable, and that thinking is how one manufactures a war. Anyway, Aqoulites and Aqoulite wannabes with Iran-specific knowledge are needed to weigh in, now and in the future.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:19 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

September 09, 2007

Quick Roundup of News on Roundups

{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)

Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)

Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.

And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 07, 2007

Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day

Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."

Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"

In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".

Continue reading "Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 03, 2007

Dar Fur: Not So Simple as Arabs attacking "Blacks"

As longer-term readers of Aqoul know, I have rather long been beating away at a point re Dar Fur: that the nice little story packaged up for college activists and Islamo / Arabophobes re Dar Fur fundamentally mis-characterises tribal resource war as genocide and that the real story is desertification and excessive population pressure on an environment that can't support the combination of population lifestyles and numbers. And that the simplistic narrative of Black Africans versus Arabs (imagined to be people looking rather like Saudis, rather than the said Arab elders in the photo... who are rather obviously Arabised locals of a most "Black" genotype....)

The New York Times in a generally decent article, Chaos in Darfur on Rise as Arabs Fight With Arab makes me point, if belatedly. Of course, it contains certain idiocies, such as referring to Arab tribes in the plural but the Fur as a single tribe - they are of course a linguistic group about as much a single tribe as "the Arabs." Which is to say, they are tribes, plural. The article is very much worth a read and promotion. As I am an optimist by nature, perhaps it can help correct some of the delirious whanking on about Arab genocide on the Blacks, and maybe refocus on the real tragedy of an ecological and economic catastrophe and a spiral of destruction as clan and tribal warfare becomes bloodbaths via guns (not that history of the Maori should be forgotten in reminding one and all this is hardly a new phenomena).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:50 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 02, 2007

Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?

The informed blogosphere and newsosphere are abuzz with rumors* that a US war, or a sustained attack (i.e.war), on Iran is being put out for aggressive marketing by Administration innards this week. Events will prove this true or false. Regardless of the rightness or wrongness of such a thing, if it is being planned, I do wonder if the questions and considerations below have been addressed.

Continue reading "Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows

My favourite newspaper, as a running dog of an anglo saxon ultra liberale as the francophones like to style me (well except the running dog part, it not being in the idioma) The Financial Times has a fine series on Remittances, or in more ordinary language, money sent home by 3rd Worlders working outside of home country.

Funny these terms. Leaving this aside, remittances is quite a hot topic in the financial world, both in policy and in the money making parts, because the volumes are huge and our grubby little minds always think there must be ways to do interesting things with cash flows. More prosaically, the development people are all atwitter that:

In many developing countries today, more money comes from remittances than from foreign aid, foreign investment or even traditional exports. In Central America, remittances have long eclipsed traditional agricultural mainstays such as coffee and bananas. Migrants send more money to Morocco than tourists spend there. In some small countries – Lebanon, Serbia, Haiti, Tonga, Albania and Jamaica are all examples – remittances generate more revenues than all merchandise exports put together. The latest World Bank figures list 14 countries where migrants’ earnings account for 15 per cent or more of economic output, ranging from Moldova with 38 per cent to Jamaica with 16.4 per cent.

So there must be ways to make this money work better than merely supporting consumption, they say!

On the other side, and this is particularly true for marginally financially literate American government officials, there is this huge obsession with hawala (their mot phare, having just learned it, and thinking it applicable everywhere in - what do they call it, the silly little American provincials, BMENA or GMENA (Broader / Greater MENA), (1) and transfers (informal or otherwise) as terror financing. Apparently insensible to the data indicating nothing much in the way of money laundering as such has been involved in al Qaeda acts despite much fevered talk.

Continue reading "Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 27, 2007

Economic Development, Risk Taking & Culture (or excessive attention to culture)

Taking cue from from my own Lounsbury comment, a slightly modified and updated set of thoughts on this IHT article: Egypt searches for a balance that rewards risk-takers while valuing the past, although as I said on The Lounsbury, to be fair it is an AP article.

While it has aspects of breathless gullibility, it's not without a discussion of evolving business culture...or aspirations of evolving business culture. But in advance of my comments, a few thoughts.

Continue reading "Economic Development, Risk Taking & Culture (or excessive attention to culture)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:11 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

August 25, 2007

Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place

I must say something nice about the Washington Times, which normally has MENA-related fare along the lines of FoxNews and this type of swill. I saw this story a short time back of a travel-writer's visit to Syria in the dead-wood version, but not online. Now I see it is online. Amazingly, the writer actually seems to have taken note of the place and reported it and experienced what normal travelers there would notice, although one might find it too saccharine for its non-comments on the ubiquitous Leader & Family photos, or the pervasive poverty. Still, entitled sincerely and without guile The Kindness of Syrians, it is well done and refreshingly rooted in relevant reality; excerpts for you link-avoiders below the break. (Elsewhere on deeper questions of wealth and poverty, AbuFares has this to say; more on that at another time. Now back to the W. Times.)

Continue reading "Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 15, 2007

MENA, Credit Crunches, Sovereign Funds & Fear Mongering: Expanded Thought

Expanding on an earlier Lounsbury post or three, that is the preceding on Lounsbury on Credit Crashes & MENA as well as a brief note on what I expect to be a source of fear mongering (although I may be wrong), a few thoughts on the credit melt-down and MENA. Brief and semi-stale.

Continue reading "MENA, Credit Crunches, Sovereign Funds & Fear Mongering: Expanded Thought"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:13 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 13, 2007

A Cheney is only as strong as the weakest link

This American Enterprise Institute resident's expert comments, from circa 1994, are making the rounds, as well they should. Perhaps no one in the current Administration had encountered these thoughts, during the buildup to the Iraq invasion.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 12, 2007

Blacklisting little tiny radical groups

The first thing that came to mind in reading that that the Americans have "blacklisted" a little radical group in a Leb refugee camp was "oh my, I guess they won't be able to launder any assets through buying discounted mortgage assets.... Well, actually that's not true, my first thought was "why do they bother?"

I have no doubt it took more expenditure on the part of the Americans to go through the process, than this little marginal group has ever seen. Freezes their assets.... for a group of flea-like importance relative to US interests. In the Americans fixation in a Comintern / Soviet type threat, they descend into comical acts; wasteful as well.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 10, 2007

Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples

The recent elections in Lebanon (or Leb Land as I like to style it) produced an interesting result although not one of such great surprise, except to perhaps the Tottens and Friedmans of the world, that is, the blow-back of incompetence and utterly delusional policy based on wishful thinking and unresolved contradiction on the part of the Great Power.

The NY Times article is a solid enough and illustrative of some issues long discussed here at Aqoul, notably the severe contradiction between American (but not only American, Western in general) "promotion" of democracy, and inattention to tied-in policies; never mind inability to take an appropriately rational "who's the best long-term bet for our fundamental interests" analytical view of potential allies in region - including the Islamists.

[It has been pointed out in comments that my comments on the article are undermined by the dodginess of the article premise - in particular the reality of the American connexion impact. As I am not watching Leb Land politics with great caution or interest, I'll simply issue this mea culpa for being suckered into ranting on too little basis. This being noted there is much other commentary remaining]

Continue reading "Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:37 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 05, 2007

Honor Off Her: Fadlallah Fatwas Honor-Killing Out of {Shia} Islam

The practice of hyperpatriarchal societies of murdering suspect sexually-impure females, known as honor killing, and prevalent in the MENA region, in the ME far more than the NA parts, has been ruled unIslamic by Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, Lebanon's leading Shiite Muslim figure. (This has appears to me a bit underreported, though to their semi-credit the story is noted by the creepshow bigots at Jihadwatch who then go on to argue that a fatwa against honor killings isn't really a fatwa against honor killings, because well, you know, it, um, well , it, anyway it makes sense to ignorant hate-spewers who claim to "get it" about Muslims, unlike us poor "dhimmis".) The fatwa, as some coverage notes but others in comments report differently, is not replicated much in Sunni circles to date. An analogy may be to southern American Christians who accomodated race-segregation even when some religious were not in favor, out of fear of public prejudice in favor of the practice. In any event, the fatwa's a cool thing, and it did not require the efforts of Irshad Manji. As far as I can tell, no comment by Ayaan Hirsi Ali on this, possibly because it doesn't compute?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:48 PM | Comments (37) | TrackBack

July 31, 2007

Weapons for Everyone

As you might already have read, the United States has announced a massive arms package covering Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf countries. Guardian columnist Brian Whitaker, a Middle East expert, believes the deal is a bad idea, as it will inflame Sunni-Shia tensions throughout the region. While I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Whitaker, I must respectfully disagree with him and say I consider the deal a good idea overall.

Continue reading "Weapons for Everyone"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:36 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

July 25, 2007

Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Stability and Investment

Some time back a good friend of mine in the Maghrebine banking community asked me my thoughts on what would happen if The Parti la Justice et le Développement (Justice & Development Party), the moderate Islamist party in Morocco won the upcoming elections - as they would clearly do in any free election, from an investment flow point of view. Or more succinctly - would people like me take money out of the market, re-balance to Tunisia, etc.

My answer was "depends" - although Moroccan politics is not something I follow terribly closely, PJD actually in the economic sphere has always struck me as being fairly economically liberal (given the francophone and Arab world benchmarks that is) - and I opined that us Anglo Saxon investors would actually like to see a government with better roots and thus probably better ability to move economic liberalisation forward. I was worried, though, that this answer might be too me. I submit, then, the results of the Turkish elections and London's reactioin as partial indication my gut read is on target.

(See also Abu Aardvark's thoughts on Arab world reaction to the elections and in particular re the pseudo-secularist "Moderates")

Continue reading "Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Stability and Investment"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:17 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

July 23, 2007

MENA Business, Liquidity, Speculation, Fatwas and Egyptian Belly Dancing

Being bored on the TGV, some time to catch up on comments. In this instance on various MENA economy items that caught my eye in the past month.

So, some quick reactions to the massive amount of liquidity flowing about the region now, and globally, and fatwas on IPOs. Sorry no actual Egyptian dancing as such, but the investment equivalent with Ministry of Finance blithering on.

(edited formatting 23/7/07 18h00 GMT+2)

Continue reading "MENA Business, Liquidity, Speculation, Fatwas and Egyptian Belly Dancing"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:25 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

July 22, 2007

Dubai's New Erection Penetrates Foe China Entry's Position

Why are you looking at me like that? Stop it. The internal structure of the new under-construction Burj Dubai tower has just passed the height of the rival entry in the world's tallest building competition, Taiwan-Republic of China's Taipei 101 tower. The Burj is now 1,667 feet (sorry, I don't do metric). The question: is there any value or significance to such structures? It looks horrible at this stage; is the final version decent? And no. The caption wrote itself. Grow up. (Update: Taipei 101 - I think it's ugly too.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:45 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

July 12, 2007

Tunisia & Women's Rights: Real Developments?

I turn this issue over to a better-informed readership. A Globalist article argues that Tunisia provides a real regional model for a legislative and public policy system that would protect the rights and hopes of women in home and professional life, and do so consistent with religious sentiment and scholarship. "What really sets Tunisia apart from other Arab countries and most majority-Muslim states," Andrea Barron writes, "are its policies on marriage, divorce, child support, abortion, honor crimes and domestic violence. After all, what does it matter if a woman can attend university, own her own business and run for political office if she cannot choose her own husband and be free from violence perpetrated by her own family members?" So, are the benefits in Tunisian women's legal rights genuinely real; if so, have they been a cause or the effect of social changes? And where does the, ahem, not quite freedom-loving/democratic nature of the Ben Ali government fit in to all this, if at all?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:21 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 03, 2007

UK Muslims & Reaction: A voice of reason and not whinging victimhood

Very briefly given limited time, I draw attention to a very good arty by Asim Siddiqui in The Guardian that very properly takes on the mealy mouthed response and whinging victimhood whining of rather too much of the UK Muslim community (and professional Muslim activists - of course I am generally contemptuous of activists as a general matter). [Added: I would also recommend this: My plea to fellow Muslims: you must renounce terror]

Some particular highlights that I think key:

The events of the last few days have been sobering for us all. The response from some UK Muslim groups (influenced by Islamist thinking) is still largely to blame foreign policy (undoubtedly an exacerbating influence but not the cause), rather than marching "not in my name" in revulsion against terrorist acts committed in Islam's name. By blaming foreign policy they try to divert pressure off themselves from the real need to tackle extremism being peddled within. Diverting attention away from the problems within Muslim communities and blaming others - especially the west - is always more popular than the difficult task of self-scrutiny. ... so long as the world is presented as one where the west is forever at war with Islam and Muslims there is nothing we can do to appease the terrorists and those who share their world view. Instead it is this extremist world view that must change.

Continue reading "UK Muslims & Reaction: A voice of reason and not whinging victimhood"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:34 PM | Comments (88) | TrackBack

June 18, 2007

Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath

Monty Python's Life of Brian meets real life as this woman gets to speak in public as if she knows what she is talking about. Saracen-slayer Ayaan Hirsi Ali was speaking at the National Press Club and I accidentally heard it on the radio. At first I didn't know who it was until a stream of simple-minded inanities about Islam versus the West narrowed it down fast. No transcript available, only memory, but I had to belly-laugh and nearly spew as she explained Islam's rigidly came from the fact that it takes its Scriptures as literal and divinely authored unlike, um, Christianity. In the Christian Scriptures, she explained, the books are not fixed as being written by God, but are said to be written "by people . . . like Paul . . . and Deuteronomy." (That's exactly what I heard, folks.) What an expert guide for us on religion and progress! O, why did I have to be a Monty Python fan?

Continue reading "Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:30 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

June 16, 2007

Gaza Stripped: Two Demi-Quasi-States, One People

It appears the folks who rather justly complain of having no country, now appear to have two. Well, three, if you count the old Likudnik view of Jordan. Or in the negative numbers, if reality functions as a point of reference.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:59 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

June 05, 2007

USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly.

Among the Mideast Six-Day War's 40th anniversary issues will be the June 8, 1967 attack by Israeli military forces on the USS Liberty, an American naval intelligence ship. In international waters near Egypt's Sinai peninsula, the vessel was torpedoed by Israeli Navy vessels, following repeated strafings/napalmings by Israeli Air Force planes. A special remembrance was held at the Navy Memorial (7th and Penn) in DC on June 8. Despite my own newer conclusion that the incident was indeed a result of Israeli errors, rather than an assault with foreknowledge of the ship's American nationality, I do think the incident should receive long overdue U.S. public investigation and hearings .

Continue reading "USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 AM | Comments (27) | TrackBack

May 23, 2007

Keep your Sunni side up: Lebanon conspiracy theory #637

Seymour Hersh propounds this conspiracy theory of sorts regarding the rise of Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon. I don't buy it offhand, but there's plausibility in a Saudi role in promoting Sunni anti-Shiite counterweights, with US winks and nods. Any takers?

What I was writing about was sort of a private agreement that was made between the White House, we're talking about Richard -- Dick -- Cheney and Elliott Abrams, one of the key aides in the White House, with Bandar. And the idea was to get support, covert support from the Saudis, to support various hard-line jihadists, Sunni groups, particularly in Lebanon, who would be seen in case of an actual confrontation with Hezbollah -- the Shia group in the southern Lebanon -- would be seen as an asset, as simple as that....There is a supreme overwhelming fear of Hezbollah and we do not want Hezbollah to play an active role in the government in Lebanon and that's been our policy, basically....

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (42) | TrackBack

The never ending list of new bans in Islamic finance

Before I mention this amusing theoretical case of a usurious zero interest rate, a few comments about today’s FT Alphaville’s entry on Islamic finance:

Islamic finance - based on a strict interpretation of the Koran that bans the use of interest in transactions

Usury. The Quran bans usury. What the Quran explicitly bans isn’t the topic of the Islamic finance debate. It’s whether any amount of interest constitutes usury.

Concepts such as derivatives and hedge funds, for example, are considered particularly controversial, given the Koran’s ban on gharar (speculation).

Ben Smith, the author of this entry really needs to get his info outside Tora Bora, because there’s no such ban whatsoever in the Quran. The discussion about gharar comes from some hardly known jurisprudence, and it's not even a prohibition. Even the obscure ramblings of those yawn provoking troglodytes have a more nuanced (well, confused) view on it than the one presented above.

Continue reading "The never ending list of new bans in Islamic finance"

Posted by Shaheen at 12:31 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

May 20, 2007

Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Foundation

You won’t see me taking my hat off for Arab leaders often, but one has to render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's. Sheikh Al-Maktoum’s initiative of creating a sizeable educational fund is an excellent one. Though there are chances this will just be another isolated initiative, one’s wishful thinking would lead to hoping for more investment into education and research throughout the region.

Continue reading "Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Foundation"

Posted by Shaheen at 02:11 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

May 15, 2007

MEMRI Again: Subtle distortions, lies, and videotape

Although I haven't the time for a long discussion, I think it worthy of discussion here Brian Whitaker's item on MEMRI's distortion on the Palestinian TV item.

Well, it's an agitprop operation. Works well, sadly.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:37 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack

May 10, 2007

On the failure of Liberals in the Arab World

I’ll use Liberal in both its classic and modern Anglo-Saxon meaning here. The previous thread’s comments gave me some neuron crunching about this issue. Socialism, from the 50s to the 80s, and Islamism afterwards, are perhaps the two ideologies which mostly shaped Arab thought during the second half of the 20th century.

The socio-economic variables are clearly an indicator on how radical one can be in support of those political lines. But it’s interesting to note that those ideologies enjoy support even among people who otherwise aren’t poor, are educated, and tend to be socially quite loose.

I’ll focus on one reason that has a huge weight in determining political orientations: national causes.

Continue reading "On the failure of Liberals in the Arab World"

Posted by Shaheen at 05:22 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

May 09, 2007

Why Israel is doing Arabs a favor by ignoring the Arab Peace Initiative

Because Arabs can score some PR points out of it, but would face the tough issue of dealing with it if they had to sit and really negotiate it. Or worse, find some formula about refugees that one of our duces would think is a face saving one and come to have to actually implement it. Of course, if we were smarter, it wouldn’t be a tough point at all. But see, in negotiations, we’re idiots.

I know this entry comes a bit late, the Arab Peace Initiative has been put back on the table several weeks ago already, but I felt inspired by a recent discussion of it with a concerned friend. At the beginning of the Oslo process, when Israelis were sending delegations of the finest international law and negotiations experts, Palestinians were sending teams of little bullies, thinking that the kafya military green wearing Sopranos would be as good with their brains as they are with their muscles.

Continue reading "Why Israel is doing Arabs a favor by ignoring the Arab Peace Initiative"

Posted by Shaheen at 12:50 AM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

May 07, 2007

Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union

Sarkozy’s proposal of a Mediterranean Union have been discussed a lot by French media, but with little substance. The fact is, there aren’t many details in the proposal anyway. From his party’s website:

Je favoriserai le développement des pays pauvres, en cessant d’aider les gouvernements corrompus, en mettant en place une Union méditerranéenne avec les pays du Sud

I will favor the development of poor countries, by stopping aid to corrupt governments, by creating a Mediterranean Union with southern countries

Since most countries of the South happen to be Arab and corrupt regimes, I wonder how his pro-colonial, pro-Israeli, “anti-corrupt” attitude is going to help him cooperate in building any kind of union with them.

Continue reading "Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union"

Posted by Shaheen at 02:54 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

May 05, 2007

The Forex Wall

I’ve hit it again. The Lounsbury and I have had a brief exchange about this some time ago, and I just discussed it with a Moroccan acquaintance. The guy’s an accountant. Morocco or Tunisia, to quote only those examples among many other Arab countries, impose trade restrictions when it comes to foreign currencies.

The argument I’m given in support for those restrictions is invariably the same: everyone will rush to buy foreign currencies, and the country will have a shortage of it. That such an argument comes from an accountant is puzzling. It totally ignores the fact that markets would automatically balance that demand. If some little buddy is ready to sell his house for a couple of euros, then he must be a moron of epic proportions. And if one’s worried about the resulting exchange rate, then there definitely are ways to control them through market mechanisms.

Continue reading "The Forex Wall"

Posted by Shaheen at 01:11 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

April 28, 2007

France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy

As per The Lounsbury's suggestion, and following Ibn Kafka's extensive coverage of French elections, here are my two cents about them, Beurs, France and the MENA region and related economic bits.

Sunday's [May 6th] second round will most probably bring Sarkozy to French presidency. I have to say I'm very mixed up about this election. This round's vote is a matter of either gambling on Sarkozy, and risking what happened with Arab Americans, who happen to have voted George Bush in 2000, or choosing an economically destructive but marginally more risk averse community-wise choice with Segolene.

Continue reading "France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy"

Posted by Shaheen at 04:21 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

April 26, 2007

Finance 101 for Muslims

It is sad to say this, but finance is to today’s Muslims what medicine or astronomy was to medieval Europeans. I’m so sick of coming across people condemning themselves to poverty because they decided to follow the widespread confusion promoted by ulemas who are criminally ignorant about finance and even about traditional Islamic jurisprudence itself. So here, I decided to write this intro to finance in the hope that it will enlighten at least some of the Muslims who are hesitant when it comes to dealing with interests.

I’ll try to make it as simple as possible and will avoid circus monkeys jargon, sometimes even overly simplifying for clarity’s sake. It’s for lay people, so finance geeks look away, or your eyes are going to hurt. This is very long, so here are the sections:

I The law of gravity: supply and demand
II Money’s just an asset
III The time value of money
IV Risk
V Putting it together: interest rates
VI You do want that loan: why borrowing is necessary
VII The fallacies behind Islamic finance
VIII Islamic jurisprudence and the case of the last Caliphate
IX Pass it on

Continue reading "Finance 101 for Muslims"

Posted by Shaheen at 03:12 AM | Comments (29) | TrackBack

April 06, 2007

My Inner Neocon & Iran's Shatt Across the Bow

No, I don't want us or Britain to go to war with Iran. Heck, I'm a "cut and runner" on Iraq from before it happened. But am I the only one not of neoconnish-hawkish outlook who is a little perturbed that uniformed professional British sailors and Marines, engaged in lawful patrolling and probable legitimate intelligencing, roll over and "confess"? (Side note to antiwar folks: the coalition presence is now lawful, regardless of other moral or prudential non-rectitude.) Civilians, I understand. Me, I'll give away your social security number when faced with a nail clipper. But what happened to stiff upper lip; name, rank and serial number? If they were tortured or threatened I won't judge, but at least I'd want to know. UPDATE: Rolling over does make a little more sense after these revelations of mock executions, etc..

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:49 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

April 05, 2007

Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town

Youssef Boutros Ghali, Egypt's Minister of Finance, will be giving his take -- perhaps a bad choice of words -- on the economy of Nile-dom right here in Potomac River City, aka Washington D.C., on Thursday, April 12 (reserve at the CATO Institute by 11 April). Full details are below the break, and here, the most important of which is "Cato Forums and luncheons are free of charge." D.C area Aqoulites are required to go, if they are below 32 and in any kind of University. Meanwhile, informed comments from all on the subject, including from our own regional finance hyperinformed but Masrophobic resident Id, are welcome.

Continue reading "Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:16 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

March 29, 2007

The Madness of King George & The Terror of the Fearful Jacobin Republic

An anectdotal reflexion on recent MENA anti-American developments prompted by a somewhat amusing discussion with an American financial sector consulting friend of mine about his recent work in the Middle East and the "shocking" levels of anti-American sentiment as compared to only 3 or 4 years ago. This fellow, of a conservative East Coast background nevertheless has had enough of in region experience prior to the Right Bolshevik Coup to have seen the precipitious decline in American image in region (and elsewhere of course).

What I found interesting was his recitation of leading and very connected American educated financial sector (most of whom I know more or less well) figures whose views had shifted from pro-American to anti, reflecting various levels of frustration. What was most peculiar in this conversation was that I cannot recall a similarly structured one - that is veering off from business to American politics.

(apologies on the title, it is late, I have much work still to do, and much rhum drunk)
link fixed 30 March

Continue reading "The Madness of King George & The Terror of the Fearful Jacobin Republic"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

March 28, 2007

Ah, the Ironies: Saudi King laments failures in the Arab world

In part merely to push down the bizarre bit of something about myself (the point and content of which still escape me, but also as Roula Khalaf of the FT has captured an example of a tiny departure from the usual pointless navel gazing whankery that passes for MENA politics, although this of the not unheard of (indeed not that unusual in the end) self-flagellation variety, which in some ways is more interesting that the Egyptian State engaging in an entirely predictable stomping on of the Opposition, now that they know the incoherent pretencions of the current American government are not even actionable among the True Believers, the Right Bolshevik wing of American policy and its Trotskytesque delusionalism. Our dear (and rather more productive than the lazy scum who pretend to be posters here) Abu Aardvark has more stomach for this sort of predictable bother than I.

Above all when I need to close a deal.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:54 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

February 18, 2007

Eunuchs & Islam, or Andrew Sullivan's Gullibility

Possibly alone among my fellow authors, I have a soft-spot for the moderately incoherent Andrew Sullivan, despite his fundamental gullibility and superficiality so common to editorialists, illiteracy in science and economics, and tendency to dip into the well of accidental bigotry with respect to race and non-Western things. His general philosophy is close enough to my own that I generally read around the inanities.

Today, in amusing myself reading the blog I stumbled across this in which in typical editorialist fashion he regurgitates some utterly idiotic bigotry from a reader, without bothering to fact check, who claimed:

The Koranic reference to "slaves not attracted to women" is not meant to be interpreted as gay people, but rather to eunuchs. Just another traditional practice from the folks who brought us 9/11.

Charming. Even more charming that he quotes it as a "correction" to his almost as rubbish-quality "reflecting" on Arab sexuality and women.

Continue reading "Eunuchs & Islam, or Andrew Sullivan's Gullibility"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:29 AM | Comments (72) | TrackBack

February 12, 2007

Imperial map of the Middle East

Fascinating Flash animation of all the waves of empire across the Middle East from 1450bc to the present day, from Maps of War. Click the image to view it.

Posted by secretdubai at 12:19 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 16, 2007

Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?

A new project, wikileaks.org is out of the bag, ahead of schedule. News leaked of the new site's proposal to unite international cybernerd expertise with political dissidence to create a place where persons can safely post leaked government documents with minimal fear of direct detection. The technical feasability and security value I know not, but here is where they provide basic info, with link to a sample of a leaked document allegedly from the Somali Islamic Courts movement. For MENA-watchers, or more probably US-MENA watchers, it may be a site to keenly watch.

Continue reading "Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:55 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 14, 2007

War with Traditional Islam

An interesting blog post from military specialist and commentator Col. Pat Lang (a real colonel, unlike my old Col appellation, a mere shortening of my name) on War Against the Boogey Men, critiquing the American approach to the Iraq war and the larger engagement with the Middle East.

The item that caught my eye was this:

"Freedom" and "Islamic Fascism" clearly have "special" meanings here. I say that "freedom" as the bushies use the term is code and really means westernization and "globalization" in the sense that we want to see the world "ironed out" flat so the it meets the egregious Friedman's dream of a homogeneous world. "Islamic Fascism" means, I think, simply "Islam." That is, Islam as it has been understood by millennia of Muslims. That is, as an all encompassing view of the world and man's relationship to God. "Ah, but these are not real Muslims," I can hear the outcry now. Rubbish. We non-Muslims can not dictate to any particular group of Muslims what Islam means to them. We want an Islam similar in its role in life to the emasculated role that Christianity plays for most Americans in their lives? Sorry! We do not get to choose for them. There wil be a reaction to what I have written here. It will be similar to the outrage vented on me by a former congressman from the Midwest who went on and and on about the nice ladies who come to his office to tell him that Muslims are a peaceful lot. Peaceful? Yes? Within limits.

My analysis leads me to the belief that we are fighting against traditional Islam.

Emphasis added.

Continue reading "War with Traditional Islam"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:06 PM | Comments (77) | TrackBack

January 05, 2007

Cheap Outrage and Pretend Concern

Reading over the liberal (libertarian) blog, Hit & Run at Reason.com I was disappointed, although not particularly surprised to find a rather badly distorted reaction to Brian Whitaker's generally excellent work on gayness/homosexuality in MENA, Unspeakable Love, which Aqoul had the pleasure and privilege to review before publication.

Comments in particular showed much cheap outrage (one rather doubts any commentator had even read an accurate summary of Whitaker, given the content of comments) and faux concern for gays in the Islamic/Arab world.

Continue reading "Cheap Outrage and Pretend Concern"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:22 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

January 01, 2007

The Aqoul New Year Post

A hoary Lounsbury / Aqoul tradition, we start every new month, and new year, with a general post inviting feedback, commentary, complaint, observations, and the like. Likely to be duly ignored, but regardless, as the last year closed with Saddam being mistaken for a sheep going to sacrifice (understandably so of course) and the Iraqi government (or shall we say, the Shia Ruling Factions) gratuitiously underlining Shia-Sunni divide by executing said sheep on the Iraqi Sunni Eid el Adha (the Iraqi Shia declaring Eid a day later, oddly like the Maghreb), we might invite speculation on 2007 and what it holds for MENA.

Of course, with rumors of Americans compounding their errors in blindly reacting to the mere term "Islamist", and siding with the "ex"-Marxist Ethiopian dictatorship and the corrupt warlords in Somalia, one can expect that the future is not so bright that one would want shades...

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:26 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

December 30, 2006

Eid Mubarek and Economics

On the occasion of wishing, to the extent I am capable of such, readers Happy Holidays, Eid Mubarek and similar canned sentiments, a quick suggestion.

For the Islamic world, the Eid is a great time to reflect on the current inefficiencies in the markets, on why one can't do haouli forward contracts for an Eid delivery on a sheep, and generally on how consumption spikes in MENA reveal failures in the subsidies systems.

You might take time to reflect if an Islamic MBA would help introduce such ideas into conservatives venues, or ask what private investment may actually be doing. Regardless, the region is tipping on the edge of catastrophe due to the Americans' incompetence, but I remain hopefull that other trends, like massive amounts of capital and investment will tide things over.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:27 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 14, 2006

Attending Holocaust Denial Conference Might Be Career-Limiting

The Tehran conference has drawn widespread condemnation for its roster of infamous attendees and controversial position on the Holocaust. Certainly any academic with half a brain wouldn't be caught dead at one of Ahmedinejad's little soirees, as demonstrated by the brewing intellectual slapfight between Alan Dershowitz and Norman Finkelstein. Using evidence from a neo-nazi website, Dershowitz insinuated that his academic nemesis not only attended, but would fit right in because he "has allied himself closely with the Holocaust denial movement by trivializing the suffering of its victims and denying that many of them were victims at all." Our man Richard Silverstein summarizes the story and casts doubt on Dershowitz's conclusion by noting that a) Finkelstein's own parents narrowly escaped the Holocaust, making denial a bit difficult and b) he was testifying at a federal trial in Chicago during the conference.

The motive behind this accusation is clear: legitimate academics who attend Holocaust conferences with David Duke and his ilk may experience slight credibility loss among peers. Rather like evolutionary biologists presenting papers at a conference of Creationists, I suppose.

Continue reading "Attending Holocaust Denial Conference Might Be Career-Limiting"

Posted by eerie at 11:46 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

December 08, 2006

Surprising, the talent attracted: USG staffing in Iraq & MENA

I am generally uninterested in the new US Gov report on their self-made fiasco in Iraq, as it will likely be lost in the navel gazing party political whanking in the US -with all the aspects of a neo-Bolshevik circular firing squad - but in perusing published commentary I was struck by the following quote from a Washington Post arty (struck but not inherently surprised):

The report is replete with damning details about the administration's inept handling of Iraq. It notes, for instance, that only six people in the 1,000-person embassy in Baghdad can speak Arabic fluently. It recounts how the military counted 93 acts of violence in one day in July, when the group's own reexamination of the data found 1,100 acts of violence. "Good policy is difficult to make when information is systematically collected in a way that minimizes discrepancy with policy goals," the report says.

At this late stage in the game it is indeed striking that the US still can not mobilise sufficient human resources of quality and proper qualifications.

Continue reading "Surprising, the talent attracted: USG staffing in Iraq & MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:44 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

November 29, 2006

US & Iraq: Imbecilic Navel-Gazing as Strategy

I read and was told that the major US media (or to adopt the childishly imbecilic Neo-Bolshevik speak of the American blogs, "Mainstream Media") has finally gotten around to calling the Iraqi civil war, a civil war. I rather foolishly thought that this might be welcomed among the more cogent and cogniscent corners of online commentary as a breath of fresh air and a good point of departure for actually bloody well tackling the disaster looming in front of the US of A, rather than childishly whinging on about terminology and pretending if only they don't bloody admit how bad it is, some magical intervention will somehow rescue them from the now inevitable disaster. I do say invevitable, for the Americans have already lost - as the Soviets already had two or three years before they could bring themselves to admit it.

But no. Rather, even into the center regions of the American Whankatariat, idiotic, droolingly cretinous idiotic denial, and simple minded self regarding idiocy is the result. The essential objection as far as I can tell (once I peel away the piss-poor half-informed and 1/4 understood history of Shia and Sunni, of Arab and Kurd - typical "they've always been" rubbish) - is that calling a spade a spade may lead the US to flee the field.

Continue reading "US & Iraq: Imbecilic Navel-Gazing as Strategy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:24 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

November 22, 2006

MENA Moving Forward: Policy Shifts

This is something of an open thread, but motivated by my sensation that the there may be (on the margin) some meaningful reorientation of American policy, which for better or worse (often both) is a key external driver in the region, I thought we might have some thoughts on subjects worth discussing regarding future MENA developments. I personally have the penchant for the economic, but understand it is not of general interest.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

November 11, 2006

Arab Media: Al Jazeera Newspaper

Likely lost in the American elections noise and the Israeli Gaza invasion, an interesting item reported in the FT among other sources on Al Jazeera planning a competitor to the hoary old pan-Arab dailies, Al Hayat (my personal favourite), Asharq Al Awsat (All Saudi views, all the time...) and of course Al Quds Al Arabi (old school Arab nationalism, I found them shrill and boring when I bothered to read it).

A worthy concept, but I am afraid the very physicalness of newspapers make them too easy to ban (by the way, I remain puzzled why Hayat hasn't been found in Maghreb for decades) or pressure.

Continue reading "Arab Media: Al Jazeera Newspaper"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:55 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Global Gazing: Regional Reactions to US Election

Following up on my own note on what I have seen in region with respect to the American elections, let me share this FT analysis which is more or less in accord: Mideast relief over Rumsfeld’s demise, by William Wallis in Cairo.

Continue reading "Global Gazing: Regional Reactions to US Election"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:13 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

November 10, 2006

Global Gazing: MENA Echoes on US Election

As any number of MENA blogs can note, the US elections have been greeted in the region with a huge sense of relief, if only I would say from a rising sense of desperation with the Americans blundering about the region like a blind, maimed and lobotomised elephant.

Although I have been submerged in a potentially very profitable transaction as well as discussing with my new Managing Director carving out our operations and team from the Titanic (only a month on the job and the man is already on our side), I can attest that conversations over this week - with Americans, with Europeans, with above all MENA natives have all revolved around an expressed hope that the blundering incompetents in the US Presidential offices might finally give over some power to the realists.

Continue reading "Global Gazing: MENA Echoes on US Election"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:39 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

November 08, 2006

Rumsfeld Stepping Down

In the wake of popular dissatisfaction over the mishandling of Iraq (as shown in yesterday's elections), AP reports that Rumsfeld will be stepping down from his post as Secretary of Defense.

I'm sure members of our peanut gallery have opinions about potential shifts in US foreign policy now that Democrats have control of the House (and perhaps the Senate?). Feel free to yammer on and post links as things develop.

Posted by eerie at 01:04 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

October 22, 2006

Spinning in different languages or proper adjusting of message to audience?

Following up on some small debates on MEMRI mendacity and accusations of doubletalk between English and Arabic on the part of Arabophone intellectuals, I found the following article from Reuters interesting, amusing and also thought-provoking: Diplomat acknowledges U.S. "arrogance" in Iraq.

The essence of the story, the head of US public diplomacy Near East bureau, Alberto Fernandez, apparently (I have been too busy to watch TV myself) acknowledged the US has bollixed up Iraq due to arrogance and stupidity. The US government has forthwith claimed (re the English) it is a misquote.

A moment to reflect on the problems of structuring messages and communicating between languages, based on the longer text of the same Reuters story from the NY Times Reuters feed.

[Update: Unsurprisingly this is showing signs of setting off, what was it called in comments, a stupid storm: I point to Bou Aardvark's note on the issue. I wonder if the stupid storm on the part of pornstarlet wannabes like Malkin will actually deprive the US of one its few capable interlocutors on the Arab Sats, in some cretinous recreation of Soviet style purges for not following party lines]

Continue reading "Spinning in different languages or proper adjusting of message to audience?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:23 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

October 06, 2006

Dubai, the Attraction

A quick note to draw attention to a recent arty by Roula Khalaf of FT on Dubai and the why behind its success to date: Dubai cultivates oasis of calm where Arab business life can flourish.

The main thrust of the article is to highlight some of the why behind Dubai's success to date, beyond just stupid amounts of capital. Although that is a clear major condition, it is not a sufficient one as the other petro-giants of the region never managed to achieve Dubai's success (even if we mitigate our appreciation of the success by noting a definately unsustainable aspect doped by too much liquidity chasing too few quality assets).

Despite my own critical attitude towards Dubai - much is clearly illusion and can not survive, there are also clear lessons with respect to the ability of the Arab/MENA region entreprenurial classes actually being able to flourish when a moderately liberal (quite liberal for the off-shore aspects) business environment is established. I do note that some of - indeed in some ways much of Dubai's liberalism is rather Potemkin liberalism insofar as it is all of a very temporary, Enlightened Despot Suffrage quality. That being said, if one takes Dubai with a grain of salt, it does illustrate via its off-shore business services sector the degree to which Arabo-Muslim entrepreneurship is seeking a place to flourish away from the dead hand of the state, and the degree to which even in the temporary, Prince-dependent liberalism of Dubai seems vastly attractive in a world where the West is growing stupidly more hostile to Arabo-Islamic money.

Continue reading "Dubai, the Attraction"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 25, 2006

Mubarek is Dead, Long Live Mubarek: the Age of the Neo Mamalike

[Ahem Mubarek is not actually dead, it was a turn of phrase]

I believe it is more or less well known that I am an Egypt sceptic. Indeed, I am an Egypt pessimist.

A pity, as the country could and should be a great nation. However, Egypt is the perfect example in the region of the foreign funded vampire state and the bankruptcy of a short-termist "realist" (or rather fabulism dressed up as realism) policy running to the end of its tether.

I found the more and more open proposition that the Pharoah of the Mamlouks will be succeeded by the Son of the Pharoah of the Mamlouks at once amusing and disturbing. I am sure it will be, when it happens, be accompanied by much prattle on the part of the Americans about the "reformers" in the House of the Pharoah and other empty speeches only convincing to themselves.

Continue reading "Mubarek is Dead, Long Live Mubarek: the Age of the Neo Mamalike"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:08 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

September 15, 2006

Futile Bollocks and Banking

Although I remain rather too busy to contribute as I would like and should, the Generator is too embarassing to have as the lead item, so a comment on an important piece of idiocy by the Americans: their attempt to shut the Iranians out of the financial markets unilaterally: US threatens further action against Iranian banks.

I frankly find such interventions borderline retarded, as well as self-defeating, leaving aside the willy nilly confusion of Hezbullah with al Qaeda in such rhetoric. Incoherence.

Continue reading "Futile Bollocks and Banking"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 11, 2006

Yemeni Cricket? Upcoming Elections

Oh I wish I was in the land of khat and old times there were not forgotten, but I've never been there so I can't say there were old times. But for those to whom it matters, it appears that there are elections looming in the southland. September 20, 2006, to be precise. Will they be meaningful? And will they be cricket? This list suggests that the spirit of Lyndon Johnson may have had a hand in the voter registration process. UPDATE: 50 reported dead at election rally.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:46 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 10, 2006

They'll Estonia When You Try to Trade Some Goods: Transition Model?

Estonia, the Model? (Title apologies to Bob Dylan.) It seems everybody must get Estonia'd. In this excerpt of a behind-the-firewall op-ed by John Tierney in the New York Times, we learn of the transtion from an economically totalitarian society to a free market one in the ex-Soviet state of Estonia. Assuming -- and tragically some you don't, I know -- that a free market-based state and economy is a generally good thing, does Estonia provide an example for MENA (Mideast North Africa) states, and if so which ones? Alas, our main economics contributor in the region is currently bailing out sinking enterprises so the expert answer may be harder to come by. Meanwhile, I suspect Estonia fails as a model.

Continue reading "They'll Estonia When You Try to Trade Some Goods: Transition Model?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

September 01, 2006

Naguib Mahfouz, 1911-2006

Back when I was planning my first trip to Egypt, I asked a Lebanese friend of mine what one should read to get a feel for the country. Her immediate, breathless response was "Naguib Mahfouz! Omigod you have to read him!!" (yes, a bit of an airhead, but also adorable). Her first recommendation was the Palace Walk series, but recognizing the impracticalities of lugging three books around in my suitcase, she told me to read Midaq Alley instead.

My first night in Cairo was a blur of people, cars and smoggy air. I recall standing near the open window of my hotel room at 1am and wondering why it still sounded like the city was in the middle of rushhour traffic. Despite having come from a large (albeit orderly) city myself, I had trouble adjusting to all the noise and chaos, not to mention the small problem of air so thick you could almost grab it. An hour later, I found my way to a tiny 24-hour internet cafe. The only other person there was a chainsmoking American expat who laughed when I complained about the pollution and suggested I breathe through a filter, like he did.

Continue reading "Naguib Mahfouz, 1911-2006"

Posted by eerie at 12:42 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

August 27, 2006

Published: World Bank Report on MENA - 2006

Perhaps I will make this a tradition, but let me draw your attention to the semi-newly published (June, hey I didn't notice) World Bank report on MENA economic prospects, for 2006.

Last year's got me all inspired to rant on a bit and otherwise criticise a noble if somewhat flawed effort. It also inspired some parties to suggest I write "Development Porn" - I suppose writing the following engendered this:

Continue reading "Published: World Bank Report on MENA - 2006"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:44 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 26, 2006

Returning to Agit Prop

Without further comment, I share:
"I Was a Propaganda Intern in Iraq"
Electronic Iraq - USA: He was just 22 years old and he was an intern at the Lincoln Group, the Washington-based government contractor.

Contra my usual impression of "activist" sites, this particular article is fairly well-done and interesting. I will note that the intern's comments match my own impressions and what I heard through other sources.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 24, 2006

Giddiness: MENA Private Sector & New America Foundation

In reading the first paragraphs of a Washington Post Op Ed by a fellow at the New America Foundation, entitled The Real 'New Middle East' I thought I was going to be pleased, sadly though the author took real observations and mixed them in with simple-minded swallowing of corporate and governmental PR spin to produce absurd tripe typical of the wide-eyed neophyte or the paid propagandist.

A pity as the author's main thesis in a less over-done and gullible form has merit.
_{Cross posted from The Lounsbury}

Continue reading "Giddiness: MENA Private Sector & New America Foundation"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 23, 2006

Barbuphobia: Clerics, Beards, Pre-Judgment, Piety & Stuff

Egyptian author Mona Eltahawy confronts her own presumptions about Les Barbus, presumptions derived from her experiences growing up in Saudi Arabia. By les barbus, I refer of course to a nickname used elsewhere for those conservatively pious, sometimes Wahhabi, Muslim gents who tend to sport long beards. They are often presumed -- can we say profiled? -- to harbor intolerant or reactionary social and religious views (not to mention explosives). The author herself concedes holding such statistically valid presumptions presupposing judgmental viewpoints on the part of conspicuously beadred Muslim men. But she soon comes to discover that such presumptions aren't always a reliable guide to each individual, especially after encountering a new person of the barbus type who turns out to be worth getting to know as a three-dimensional being in his own right, during meetings they had in and around a conference in Copenhagen on modern Muslims .

Continue reading "Barbuphobia: Clerics, Beards, Pre-Judgment, Piety & Stuff"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:24 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 17, 2006

MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans

While I confess this note is in part motivated by my desire to have an excuse to share this cartoon from the Moroccan business daily, l'Economiste from yesterday's - 16 Aug edition. This was emailed to me yesterday, and is worthy of a good laugh, I thought it also worthwhile to undertake some reflexions on both the subject matter and some generalisations about practical issues.

[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]

Continue reading "MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

August 11, 2006

Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)

The rising chorus of commentators horrified at the American-Israeli desire to play a self-indulgent Thelma & Louise drive-off-the-cliff policy in MENA continues to grow.

Ranging from a late echo to my own "Guns of August" allusions, in the Washington Post yesterday (although the lunatic Thelma & Louise approach is reaffirmed by Gingrich and Krauthammer today), to Roula Khalaf's analysis in the Financial Times last week, to intelligent Israeli analysts realising that this 1982 business is not going to get any better, whatever the utterly magical thinking going on in Bush and Olmert governmental quarters, to The New York Times (in a generally decent if somewhat superficial review) noting the disastrous impact this useless war is having on American policy interests.

Continue reading "Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 09, 2006

Frothy: Fund Developments, Private Equity & MENA

A queer indicator of the amount of froth that characterises the MENA capital markets at present, my very own self got a call from an American firm looking to enter the MENA market for the first time and raise a private equity fund. Looking for a "face."

Quite frankly, they need someone grey-haired and I told them that right out, for the kind of investment they're thinking of; but on the other hand, I would be a decent face to give an image of.... "best practices" given me rep as Mr Clean.

This being said, this is not really about me, but the froth. With oil at nearly USD 80 and likely to remain well above USD 70, the amount of money flowing into the Gulf - and to a lesser extent places like Algeria and Libya - is astounding and looking like a replay of the 1970s. [Crossposted from The Lounsbury]

Continue reading "Frothy: Fund Developments, Private Equity & MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 03, 2006

Creative Destruction & Own Goals - "The New Middle East is Already Dead"

Text: "Uncle Sam wants to 'educate' our political parties"
TV: "War in Lebanon - Massacre"
US: "Lesson 1, turn off the telly."

The entry title comes from a radio report I just heard on RFI. The above is from a Moroccan business journal online, l'Economiste, normally a fairly liberal publication. Fairly amusing in the end, and illustrative of the spill over effects of the public US diplomatic position.

Continue reading "Creative Destruction & Own Goals - "The New Middle East is Already Dead""

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:55 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

July 21, 2006

Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)

Although less impressive than the scenes you can catch of the Arab Sats, this Al Jazeerah arty (Arabic) Continued Criticisms of Israeli Hostilities Against Lebanon and Palestine / استمرار التنديد بالعدوان الإسرائيلي على لبنان وفلسطين conveys in pictures (and of course text) the Islamic world reaction after the Friday prayers. The demos shown on the telly in Amman, Cairo, and Damascus were particularly large relative to the security presence. The article also notes the khutub (sermons) in particular in Baghdad; oddly perhaps the Israelis will provide Iraqis an inter-ethnic rally point.

Continue reading "Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

July 04, 2006

Google Expansion & MENA - Market Interest in MENA

A rather quick note to draw attention to what may be a somewhat under noticed story, from FT: Google looks to expand in Middle East.

I noticed this when my usual robot searches brought up this on both the career angle and the news site searches. An interesting development.

Continue reading "Google Expansion & MENA - Market Interest in MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:38 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

June 18, 2006

Somalia: Islamic Courts & Women's Progress

A quick note on a interesting arty in The Washington Post on the role of women in backing The Islamic Courts movement that seems to be well on its way to taking power in Somalia and displacing the "secular" warlords.

If there is one item that most at once irritates and amuses me about Western and American commentary specifically is the weird gullibility in the usage of "secular" versus "Islamist" - although in a sense it is relavatory of why secularism has or is failing in the MENA region and many parts of the Islamic world - where "secular" seems to mean "any corrupt bunch of idiots presently in power who are not overtly and ostentatiously 'Islamist' in political orientation."

If this is the "secularism" being offered, and indeed backed by the West and America specifically, does anyone think it should be suprising that, whatever bitter individuals like Hirsi Ali Magaan say for the consumption of the fearful Westerner, secularism is losing ground?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:36 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

June 14, 2006

MyGreenCard.com

Using MySpace.com, a young Jericho, West Bank gentleman managed to win the affections of an American girl, aged 16, and invite her over to be married. But before the young lady finished her unapproved journey to Israel-slash-Palestine-slash-Holy Land-slash-West Bank-slash-Judea&Samaria, she was intercepted by US authorities in Amman, Jordan, and returned to sender. Her parents had stopped her. Now, the story of this Internet romance suggests, in a bit uncommon form with the unusual youth of this girl, a too-prevalent reality among intercultural adults in a similar situation where the active ingredient, at least for one, is sadly not an Arabian Nights romance, but an all-too-common hidden-agenda romance of a certain piece of non-erotic laminated paper.

Continue reading "MyGreenCard.com"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:27 PM | Comments (28) | TrackBack

June 06, 2006

al-Mondiale

It's that time again, as evidenced by the open month discussion turning towards football. As the civilised world's attention turns to Germany, Lebanon has started to sprout an international collection of flags that would do the United Nations (or at least the EU) proud. Although there are three MENA clubs in the field, Lebanese flag-bearers prefer the front-runners: I've probably seen more Brazil flags than any others, followed by France, Italy, and a surprising number of Germany flags, along with a few each England and Sweden and one solitary Argentina flag. No Saudi Arabia, and no Iran or Tunisia flags that I can recall.

Continue reading "al-Mondiale"

Posted by tomscud at 07:03 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

June 04, 2006

Muslim Women as Victims - Lalami's "Missionary Position"

[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]

In a rather longish piece in the American Leftist dinosaur paper, The Nation, expatriate Moroccan author Laila Lalami takes a whack at one of eerie's favourite topics, Muslim Victim Women Reformers in an arty entitled "The Missionary Position".

While I am not normally inclined to read such things as The Nation, the highlighting by The Arabist were enough to induce a read.

I cannot say that I am a fan of such hackneyed phrases as "supporters of empire", above all when used seriously, but what can I expect out of literary types?

Continue reading "Muslim Women as Victims - Lalami's "Missionary Position""

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:49 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

May 30, 2006

Media Savior Secularism: Ruthless Business Empires & Making Liberalism in the Arab World

It is not often I have the occasion to combine three of my negative obsessions: secularist posing, corruption and Egypt into one comment. But uniqely an FT article from 21 May by Roula Khalaf and William Wallis allows me to do just that, covering Orascom, the Egyptian telecoms & everything else giant's plans to launch a Sat TV news channel.

Orascom, whose...non-virginal business practices in region (including some fine accusations of bribery in the context of Iraqi and North African cell tenders) do not immediately lead me to think of its owner as a secular savior - rather as part of the business as usual sorts.

Continue reading "Media Savior Secularism: Ruthless Business Empires & Making Liberalism in the Arab World"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:46 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

May 25, 2006

"Dhimmi": Crock Quran? (And I don't care)

(Apologies to Southern African-American folk music.) The apparently false allegations that Iran was preparing a law requiring Jews and Christians to wear identifying symbols has not only resulted in a newspaper retraction, but also has led some to revisit an overused word among much of the Islamophobic blogosphere and elsewhere: "dhimmi". The term, in history applied to Jews and Christians in certain Muslim periods, appears to be derived from some type of legal inferior status imputed to non-believers in the early stages of the Islamic conquests. Lately, however, it has sort of become a kind of warblog/Little Green Footballs type of Islamophobic cult-jargon (cf. moonbat) for one who is a perceived "Uncle Tom", i.e. a non-Muslim who suggests that Muslims may indeed act with ordinary human motives, or that their faith is flexible and not pervasively malevolent.

Continue reading ""Dhimmi": Crock Quran? (And I don't care)"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:33 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

May 24, 2006

You Say You Want A Revolution? Chechen Sufism vs. Islamist Terrorism

In a hilariously ironic turn of events, it seems that the Russian Federation central government is now encouraging Chechens to return to observance of their indigenous flavor of Sufism , after 200 years of official anti-Islam policy ranging from denial that observant Muslims even existed to active persecution of believers. Well, I suppose that if you think your alternative is acceptance of a line of thought held by the charming folks who held a theater full of innocent civilians hostage, anything must seem like an improvement.

Continue reading "You Say You Want A Revolution? Chechen Sufism vs. Islamist Terrorism"

Posted by evaluna at 09:59 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

May 20, 2006

Islamic Finance - Scholar Shortages

Some weeks ago one of your fine 'Aqoul authors raised the issue of Islamic finance, and its present situation.

While perhaps less sexy than the faux-reports of Iranian Nazi-esque clothing restrictions on minorities, understanding a bit about economic developments in the region is more useful to readers wanting to actually have a sense of MENA developments (as opposed to merely whanking on in general ignorance about the horrors of the Arab world, etc), and The Financial Times has been running quite a number of interesting articles on the region - well actually about the Gulf, but the confusion of Gulf with all of MENA/Arab world is so general I almost cannot complain.

Continue reading "Islamic Finance - Scholar Shortages"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:31 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

May 14, 2006

Arab League

The BBC just ran a very interesting episode of the Doha Debates, a monthly discussion panel examining a motion. Hosted by Tim Sebastian, the combative interviewer whose previous gig was at the BBC's own HardTalk, the episode asked whether the Arab League ought to be disbanded. A clear majority of the people in attendance (and I note here that the elites of Doha are hardly representative of the teeming masses or the governments of the Arab world) seemed to think this was indeed the case. Notwithstanding the entertainment value of watching Qaddafi in a public forum, one is curious as to just what the point of the League really is; its accomplishments certainly haven't been all that spectacular, and its manner of (mal)functioning has annoyed more than one member state. Are there not already enough fora for a dialogue of the deaf?

Posted by dubaiwalla at 02:07 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

May 11, 2006

Dubai: Economic Cannibalisation?

FT's William Wallace - a reporter working from Cairo who I am coming to look forward to - has an interesting article on Dubai, Building ambition raises Middle East financial stakes, that merits a read by those of us who follow the place.

The shortest version, speculation that the Dubai model of free zones and specialised development "cities" is reaching the end of its logic with its proliferation in Dubai and copying of the concept among on the part of neighbours, as in Qatar. I beleive there is something to this, the issue of diminishing returns off of the strategy.

Continue reading "Dubai: Economic Cannibalisation?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 26, 2006

Islamic Banking/Finance - Questions & Discussion

Not to depart too much from the important topical stuff, particularly discussion of the recent horrors in Egypt, but I want to solicit our brains trust to introduce me and other readers to a more general MENA-relevant concept I hear quite a bit about but know little of.

Continue reading "Islamic Banking/Finance - Questions & Discussion"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:29 PM | Comments (30) | TrackBack

April 13, 2006

Dar Fur: The Bowl Spills Over - Coup d'Etat Manqué in Tchad

Some time back in commenting on the Dar Fur situation in The Soudan, I touched on potential spillover in a somewhat incoherent manner in Dar Fur spillovers: Tchad and a State of War.

Now it would appear that things have indeed spilled over although it is hard to say.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:21 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

March 11, 2006

Danish Cartoon Protests: Roundup

Continue reading "Danish Cartoon Protests: Roundup"

Posted by eerie at 06:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 10, 2006

DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back

I shall make this briefish note as the DPW fiasco continues to steam ahead. In many ways this is good for me personally as I expect increased in-region / non-US flows for MENA money. But it is bad for investment in the US, bad for US MENA policy and reveals as clearly as clear can be the deep vein of anti-Arab bigotry hiding beneath the surface in the United States. A loss for moderation, a loss for state security interests and a loss for economic efficiency and investment in key assets. Yes, bravo to ignorant know-nothing racist jingoism. This blows back not only to commerce, but also to our pious middle conversation, make no mistake about it.

Continue reading "DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:35 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

March 09, 2006

Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia

Well, the irrational forces of bigotted know-nothing nativism and bigotted Islamophobia won out, DPW has finally said fuck it, keep poorly run ports, we'll take the profitable parts of P&O , or as the statement went,

“Because of the strong relationship between the United Arab Emirates and the US, and to preserve that relationship...DP World will transfer fully the US operation of P&O Ports North America Inc to a United States entity,” Edward Bilkey, the company’s chief operating officer, said in a statement.

Only yesterday the head, Mr Sharaf,

acknowledged ... that the US facilities were a small part of the deal and less profitable than other P&O container terminals. His remarks came as the White House appeared to soften its support for the deal and the House of Representatives pressed ahead with plans to block the transaction.

It is also of note that private equity groups, smelling blood in the water,

have approached DP World about buying the US operations, people familiar with the matter said. Industry observers said logical candidates included Blackstone and Macquarie, the Australian bank.

Well, mark one of up for the forces of blind bigotry and irrational anti-Arab xenophobia with all the dark hand waving about "connexions" and "associations" and the utter inability to distinguish between Saudiyah and the rest of the Arab world.

Continue reading "Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:08 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

March 05, 2006

Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)

Sadly my work is distracting me from the fun of the ongoing Bigotted Know Nothing Nativist Ignoramus Mob Madness surrounding DPW's takeover of UK's P&O and the incidental acquisition of the operating leases for port operations at six major US ports (although in the UK and globally sanity has prevailed*), I wanted to augment my dear friend and colleague, Secret Dubai's post on Israeli support for Dubai and DPW with specific reference to the Israeli shipping line Zim's statement of support; I should say it comes as no surprise to anyone with experience in the region that some Israelis would step forward on this, even in a politically delicate situation - not so oddly it is the moderates on all sides trying to do business that know each other.

Continue reading "Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:57 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 19, 2006

Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger

The emerging US controversy over Dubai Port World (an atrocious name I may add, even DP World is bad - hereafter at 'Aqoul, DPW) buying out historic UK port operator P&O - which incidentally includes a portfolio of US assets.

That unfortunate fact - a portfolio of US assets, which is to say management interests in six US ports on the United States Eastern Sea Board - has occasioned the exposure of a vein of ugly sentiment and public commentary, as well as typical for the "blogosphere" blind and ill-informed reaction. Another confirmation that Right and Left blog authors’ sneering with respect to the real media is badly misplaced.

This post – which will be updated and moved forward as I develop it – is intended to correct the poorly-informed xenophobic knee-jerking on Left and Right.

(I note in the interim that the fine American habit of turning everything into a lawsuit has emerged already as Maimi "Firm Sues to Block Foreign Port Takeover" per the WP, which pimps the security fallacy.)

Continue reading "Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:00 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack

February 16, 2006

Democracy as a Weapon

Recently there has been a fair bit of handwringing over both the Hamas victory in the Palestinian territories and the Muslim Brotherhood’s strong showing in Egypt’s parliamentary elections. US policymakers are likely not pleased by the fact that Islamist MPs outnumber secular ones by nearly two to one in Iraq, and that early hopefuls such as Ahmad Chalabi’s Iraqi National Congress bloc failed to secure a single seat in recent elections.

In this context, it is mildly disturbing to see Farhat Asaad, a Hamas spokesman, point out this uncomfortable truth:

"First, I thank the United States that they have given us this weapon of democracy. But there is no way to retreat now. It's not possible for the U.S. and the world to turn its back on an elected democracy."

Continue reading "Democracy as a Weapon"

Posted by eerie at 09:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Contrarian Cartoon Commentary: Mechanics in Politics and Boycotts

Reluctant as I may be to go against my own disdain for the silliness and misdirection of the cartoon protests, I must in good Aqoul tradition be a contrarian even to some trends here.

Well-expressed (though I have many fundamental reservations) is an older Tim Cavanaugh article at Reason on the subject, saying the controversy is on the whole a good thing. But haste and time-constraints make me wish to concentrate on one aspect – one where I feel I can make more of a contribution than my mere better-informed-on-MENA-than-average-Yank-whiteguy status allows.

The silver lining I see has to do with the centrality to political development of the “mechanical” process of politics, with ideology or substantive focus only secondary. In the cartoon reactions, there are real signs of change, potentially for the positive. (I should come back and add links but time constraints are really bad at the moment personally, please be patient.)

Continue reading "Contrarian Cartoon Commentary: Mechanics in Politics and Boycotts"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:55 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

Propaganda, Iraq and Gaming - and Future Funds

Sadly I can not comment on this, other than to share the story and note that it confirms my observation months back that the Lincoln Group story was not a dark 'Neo Con' tale but one of dilletantes.

Quick Rise for Purveyors of Propaganda in Iraq

It is of course illustrative of the general problem with the Bush Administration's efforts in Iraq and MENA. Clumsy cronyism with amateurish dilletantes. A bit of cronyism here and there will happen. Human beings are human. The sins of the Bush Administration lie in their lack of competence in executing even cronyism, not as the simple minded Left would have it, in dark Right wing plots. A pity, I would enjoy a competent if unpleasant US government in world affaires. An incompetent, bumbling, often cretinously self-deluded US Government makes me life harder, and I don't enjoy that.

At least I can add that the Fund for the Future, that much vaunted initiative announced at the G8 meeting in Dubai is in fact a quietly dead letter for the moment. Ms Cheney got her panties all wet too soon. Perhaps the idea may get reworked to something vaguely rational.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:33 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 15, 2006

Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism

I am not the biggest fan of the US Administration and its Middle East policy, that is certain. Indeed, I rather consider them a bunch of congenital and serial incompetent bunglers whose policies may be described with Talleyrand's "Worse than a crime, a blunder."

One might expect, then, I might be in agreement with the opinions voiced by the Democratic party opposition in this article from Reuters:

US bungles Middle East policy, lawmakers tell Rice
By Sue Pleming

Well, I am not. Sadly the criticism, rather than being well-founded, is largely based on the same kind of simple-minded magical thinking and wishful-thinking-as-analysis that has led the Bush Administration astray so very badly so many times. Criticism about Hamas rather than Fatah winning the elections in Palestine, for example. As if the US has a magic wand to wave to make the 'good guys' of the moment win (or forgetting that using such wands that do exist to achieve 'victory' for one's favoured side can be rather Pyrrhic, ending up with damaged goods).

Continue reading "Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

February 14, 2006

Cartoons & Protest: Context, Hariri's Commemoration as a Benchmark

A brief comment if I may, on the cartoon controversy and benchmarking - in the context of the over-heated characterisations of the Islamic world and the protests against the Danish cartoons.

Among the items that have most annoyed me has been the lazy characterisations that had protests of mere hundreds or a handful of thousands as reflecting 'mass Muslim anger.' Mere hundreds is not mass anger.

I'd like to take Lebanon and the Rafiq Hariri Memorial demo as a benchmark for real mass movement: as one can gather from The Washington Post and better from the image with al Hayat's coverage, even allowing for large Xian and Druze participation, more than a few hundred Lebanese turned out.

I would hazard the opinion that one has a benchmark for what really is bringing people out, and what is not.

It strikes me that again and again, the largest demos one sees are not the ones supporting the radicals in the region. However, the radicals are good at turning out their troops more often, smashing things to get attention and generally bleating rather loudly claiming to speak on behalf of all. The squeeky wheel, as it were.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:44 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

February 07, 2006

Salafist Entrepreneurial Behavior: A Previous Incident Noted

Reading through the responses to the idiocy that has stormed across the Muslim world over Danish cartoons, I was struck by the similarities between these events and the riots in Alexandria late last year:

For Ali Abdel Fattah, a spokesman of the Muslim Brotherhood and one of the organization’s leaders in the Mediterranean port city, the violence was the result of political maneuvers ahead of the parliamentary elections. According to Abdel Fattah, the CD containing a filmed version of the play I Was Blind but Now I Can See, which was performed only once (over two years ago), was distributed in the neighborhood to sabotage the candidacy of National Democratic Party Candidate Maher Khilla (one of only two Copts running for the party). Khilla announced that he would step down last week in protest at the violence, but was later told by the ruling party leadership not to run anyway. In a common variant of the story, one of his rivals in the race (which will be held on 20 November) distributed the CD to incite Muslims against Copts.

Let's see: violence, directed against Christians (in one case, Europeans, in the other locals), prompted by the widespread distribution long after the fact of work that is genuinely offensive. Right.

Posted by tomscud at 12:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 06, 2006

Cartoon Outrage: Salafist Entrepreneurial Behaviour, Manufacturing Incidents & the Problem of Moderation [Updated]

There seems hardly any reason to provide links to this ever-escalating cycle of utter contemptible idiocy, so let me make this more or less purely opinion and my own personal analysis. I would be remiss, however, if I did not pimp our very own summary page on the Danish – Mohammed Cartoon Controversy.

I also would like to point to a fine round up of online commentary as well as highlight our dear Raf Bey’s contribution: “Why do the Syrians burn embassies but the Iranians don't?” In addition, to return a citational favour well-deserved, I point to Clive Davis’ blog commentary, and in particularly this most recent summary of rational commentary on the riots. One has to agree with his observation that the commentary he cites is “more helpful than one of Christopher Hitchens' thunderbolts on "the case for mocking religion".” Juvenile exercise of expression, but then we should be used to Hitchens being a cretin with regards to the MENA region.

Onward, then.

The Lounsbury Discussion on the Issue

[Update: reading Wikipedia I found an online link - no longer working - to the/an Arabic dossier on the cartoons written by the Denmark group of Imams. Having given it a speed read, it appeared to me that while the dossier was written post-facto to their official meetings, its Arabic text did clearly indicate the incendiary 'extra cartoons' were not published, but were ones received by certain unidentified protest leaders, post their public protests in Denmark. That makes the provence of the cartoons less doubtful to me. The dossier was not inherently unreasonable in tone, although certainly disputable, and clearly reflected an agenda, one which I continue to think reflects the Salafist extremist fringe]

[Update II: A very interesting note thanks to Clive's comment, Danish paper rejected Jesus cartoons; they were apparently offensive and unfunny. Ahem. Well. In other notes re the same article, someone desperately needs to give Muslim activists a lesson in marketing: the European Committee for Prophet Honouring just sounds... silly.]

Continue reading "Cartoon Outrage: Salafist Entrepreneurial Behaviour, Manufacturing Incidents & the Problem of Moderation [Updated]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:04 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

January 31, 2006

More Comments on Complete and Utter Nonsense

As the good Lounsbury has recently outlined, a surge of hysteria has gripped the Islamic World in reaction to cartoons published in a Danish newspaper. Since he has done a superb job in skimming the Arab media I will limit myself to venting my spleen re grass roots Saudi and religious Arabic channel reaction. The gaggle of 'activists' (namely, bored housewives with no grasp or desire to grasp the fact that not all the world is actually under an Islamic monarchy, nor I would imagine, do they have a desire that their holiday destinations in Europe be run by The House of Saud) here in Riyadh have bombarded each other with text messages, e-mails and phone calls fanning the flames of a false sense of purpose and ironically manifesting a cultural arrogance and ethno-centrism equal to that which they are attacking.

Continue reading "More Comments on Complete and Utter Nonsense"

Posted by bint ash-shaitan at 12:00 PM | Comments (21) | TrackBack

January 30, 2006

Complete utter nonsense: "Offended by Cartoons" Muslim Pinheads Boycott the Danes

It is hard to know how to categorise this idiocy, however this arty at least gives some fuel Protests Grow Over Danish Cartoon of Muhammad, sadly for those who like to portray Muslims as fanatic cretins, as in fact there are a fine bunch of fanatic cretins to make the case.

The essential start point is a cretinous Danish paper ran months and months ago a rather idiotic competition to portray the Prophet Mohammed, and as I recall, a goodly percentage of entries were offensive nasty little Arab / Istlamic stereotypes. Frankly one got the sense of an undercurrent of bigotry in the entries.

But whatever, cartoons in a stupid Danish paper. Nothing to get one's underwear in a real not over. Danish Muslims protested and that should have been the end of it. But no, the International Ever Seeking Offence to Blow Up Issues for Exploitation Islamist Cretins Faction has gotten hold of this.

Continue reading "Complete utter nonsense: "Offended by Cartoons" Muslim Pinheads Boycott the Danes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:46 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

January 29, 2006

France, Islam & Discrimination: Further to the idiocy of the "European Intifada"

Further to my ongoing comments of the situation in France, the riots that some ill-informed, bigotted or just plain stupid commentators blew up into a "Muslim intifada" in Europe, an interesting article on current French efforts on addressing rampant discrimination in France.

(A side set of reading by the way from 2003, note the prescient commentary, intifada my ass, I note there is a clear connexion with MENA directly, besides the issue of Muslim minorities in Europe and the potential echoes within the Islamic word, the parallels in terms of illiberal economies with severe labour rigidities leading to high unemployment and difficulties in findings jobs)

A few comments, then.

Continue reading "France, Islam & Discrimination: Further to the idiocy of the "European Intifada""

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:38 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences

The election of Hamas has set off quite a lot of overdone hand wringing with respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and with respect to 'democracy promotion.'

I am going to ignore the I-P conflict as an endless toothache, although frankly in the medium term this is probably a boon as Hamas seems likely to be a more effective player than the corrupt and broken PLO/Fatah.

Rather, a few words on democracy promotion in the Middle East and North Africa.

The first words are, I am no fan of it, and frankly largely do not believe in it on the terms that it is pimped to the general public, etc. However, the handwringing post-Hamas victory requires some comment.

Continue reading "Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:03 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

January 19, 2006

US Diplo Service: Out into the Field She Says

This is very good news for the US diplo service, and long over-due. Will make my diplo friends very happy.

The Washington Post arty reports:

Diplomats Will Be Shifted to Hot Spots
Rice Also Plans to Elevate USAID Chief
By Glenn Kessler and Bradley Graham
Thursday, January 19, 2006

My first comment is that all the US diplos ...no, sorry all the US diplos that I have respected over the years... have bitterly complained about the current US diplo service organisation and disincentives to "get out" and as well master languages (yes, learn languages to get little brownie points on the fiscal scale, but not master, and why with the bizarro rotation system that puts rare Arabic speakers in Beijing for years at a time, and vice versa).

Those few US diplos who have defended the system rather struck me as bureaucrats, although usually far more straight up than the delightfully corrupt ones I liked, like my EU colleagues

Continue reading "US Diplo Service: Out into the Field She Says"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:40 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 11, 2006

On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,

Via our dear friend, Father of Aardvarks 'a comment on Gerecht on Iraqi payola', found 'Hearts and Minds' in Iraq: As History Shows, Ideas Matter More Than Who Pays to Promote Them leads me to make a comment on influence and media from a business standpoint.

Continue reading "On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:30 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

January 06, 2006

Stroke of Misfortune?

By stroke of a stroke, Israel has integrated itself further into the region by temporarily adopting a Saudi political model, namely having a morbidly obese head of government stuck in a coma on ventilation while factions, secular and religious, vie for power and succession.

Ariel Sharon, whose name is a near sound-alike for the Israeli-Palestinian peace dilemma ("A real share? Own?"), appears to be at death's door, a place of familiarity given his own past career stints as death's doorman. But now that his bloodthirsty vampire public image among many detractors has morphed from Nosferatu to that of "Grandpa" on The Munsters, is peace further or closer? Rafael Frankel of the Christian Science Monitor speculates.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:54 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 20, 2005

The Semi-Bogus Dilemma of Democracy versus Mosque & State

[A long and boring essay, written with all the arrogance I could muster out of being male, foreign to the region, and American.]

A "Semi-bogus" dilemma, I call it, because the issue of what type of rulers might emerge from real democratic processes in MENA is a fair question. My real target for discussion is more the Western progressive, since those are my own people (though I am more right wing “libertarian” than progressive). I speak about their fears and those of many MENA-ites as well, who express endless reservations about MENA democracy. They do so because democratic empowerment has a real risk of empowering retrograde Islamist/traditionalist forces, e.g. the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. To give away the ending, my message below is basically: shut up and get over it.

My more complex message directed towards MENA-ite advocates of liberal or social democracy is derived from reflections upon the insightful work of Mona Eltahawy regarding Egypt's last election rounds, and the harassment of the Coptic minority. This ugly American’s (meaning me) more complex message to MENA-ites is: don't shut up, but do get over it. . . for now, at least. The following is a look at why.

Continue reading "The Semi-Bogus Dilemma of Democracy versus Mosque & State"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:53 PM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

November 08, 2005

US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]

The item I have refered to in the past is now public:
A Ludicrously Bad Idea

The key item here is this:

"The U.S. wants to see some success before further expansion. It envisions attracting board members with the clout -- names being bandied about include Jack Welch and Robert Rubin -- to get Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak on the phone to complain, for example, that he needs to free up pharmaceutical prices if a private drug industry is to flourish in Egypt."

Fucking stupid ass concept. Getting your fund involved in these kind of politics is a disastrous way to invest.

UPDATE: Arty text below with extended commentary.

Continue reading "US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

November 03, 2005

But foursomes are halal . . .

. . . if more boring. Building on the threesome discussion, below, we find foursomes more tolerated:

Several of the world’s top airlines, including Emirates . . . feature these circle-the-globe fares and Wide World of Golf can customize your land arrangements. . . .Grab your foursome.

Continue reading "But foursomes are halal . . ."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:40 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

October 28, 2005

Ahmadinejad and Israel

What's going on in Iran? First the country's president calls for Israel to be "wiped off the map." Naturally, this doesn't go down well at all internationally, with the Israelis going so far as to call for Iran's expulsion from the UN. So Iran's Moscow embassy issues a statement saying the president didn't mean to "speak up in such sharp terms," and we are reminded that such statements are made all the time during rallies but don't really mean anything.

So the new president made a stupid diplomatic error, not realizing his new position makes his words carry more weight. And after his country's ambassadors are summoned to various European capitals to explain their government's actions, all this will die down, right? So then why is Iran stupidly upping the ante by ordering its diplomats in Western countries to launch protests there against Europe's attitudes towards 'Zionist crimes'? My own take is that Iran's foreign policy, more or less directionless since Ahmadinejad came to power a few months ago, is starting to go down the tubes.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:18 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

October 25, 2005

Clarifications on Least Attractive Features like Class

Clarified some points on class, tribe and attractive features of MENA/Arab society in the comments on this entry.

But I reproduce the points here below as well. In haste, bullet points.

Continue reading "Clarifications on Least Attractive Features like Class"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:25 AM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

October 16, 2005

Bird flu in Turkey sets region in motion

From the Daily Star:

Mideast states scramble to thwart bird flu
Governments act quickly to ban imports of poultry and stock up on vaccines

As scientists confirmed Friday that the latest outbreak of bird flu in Turkey belonged to the killer H5N1 strain of the virus, countries right across the Middle East went on the alert to curb the spread of the disease. Ankara banned the hunting of wild birds and clamped a 3-kilometer quarantine zone around the northwestern village of Kiziksa, where the virus was discovered. Almost 9,000 birds were slaughtered and veterinary officials in protective suits were culling the few remaining birds in the village Friday.

Sales of poultry meat throughout the country have dropped by 50 percent in the past few days according to wholesalers despite assurances by health officials that the virus dies when meat from a sick animal is cooked well.

In a bid to calm nerves, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan broke his Ramadan fast Thursday with a forkful of chicken salad which he also offered to a photographer on the scene.

Most Middle Eastern countries have banned chicken imports, but migratory birds are going to be a problem. And banning the hunting of wild birds - wow. That one will surely be respected universally and not at all ignored.

Fortunately, we have the vaunted public health systems of the Middle East to protect us in case the flu starts being transmitted human-to-human.

Gah.

Posted by tomscud at 01:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

October 12, 2005

Migration, Economics & MENA-African pileups

While I may be banging away at an issue of little general interest, I was encouraged to find something of relevance to the rising issue of Euro-African migration and the Maghreb in the last issue of the Economist.

Economics focus
Be my guest

The economic case for temporary migration is compelling; the historical record less so
Oct 6th 2005
_{(Yes subscription, don't like it? Fuck off then and read some free twaddle.)}

For those puzzled, my reference is to the recent problem emerging in the Maghreb and especially Morocco with its land border with the Spanish enclaves Ceuta and Mellila, which I mentioned in my typically light weight Illegal Immigration - Borders & Madness and The Maghreb-African Immigration Problem

Continue reading "Migration, Economics & MENA-African pileups"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:49 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 11, 2005

Ramadan TV & Terror

Of interest to the media, terror and culture people here, a fine little story on a Ramadan soap that I have been following (or rather, am forced to follow unless I hole myself up in my office) on MBC: Syria launches terror-themed soap for Ramadan.

I caught this referenced online somewhere, but had actually been watching the series without knowing where it was going, although the last episode (10 September on MBC) gave the game away with the somewhat dime Khaliji character getting brainwashed by a ultra-Salafi takfiri type activist. That and the chica who is the implied wheel-chair bound narrator pulling or slipping back her hidjab to show nasty scarring.

Continue reading "Ramadan TV & Terror"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:11 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 07, 2005

Arab Media - Arab Sats: Father of Aardvarks (edited)

I would be remiss not to draw attention (although I suspect most 'Aqoul readers are already aware) to Abu Aardvark's article Watching al-Jazeerah.

In that context let me add a few observations:

Continue reading "Arab Media - Arab Sats: Father of Aardvarks (edited)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:47 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

October 06, 2005

For Dar Fur Day (Updated) [realised it's actually Darfur Fast (sic)]

In honor of this ridiculous, pretentious and foolish event scheduled for 6 October (a day of fasting during Ramadan, how... navel gazing North American whinging activist), I would like to draw your attention to this old post of mine on the issue of Dar Fur: Darfur - On Racism, On Ignorance, On Laziness and just plain stupidity (and Arab responses) as well as this from 'Aqoul, Critiquing the Arab World.

UPDATE:
As an added bonus and in part prompted by my annoyance with the annoying little whinging idiot of an ill-informed stereotypical student 'activist' git, I thought I would provide a new link to a Dutch analysis of the Dar Fur issue entitled: Darfur: The logic behind the conflict, from the Dutch journal RISQ: Review of International Social Questions.

Rather makes the same points I have in regards to the miss framing of this (and I would add the nasty substition of anti-black sub-African prejudice for equally unenlightened anti-"Arab" prejudice).

Continue reading "For Dar Fur Day (Updated) [realised it's actually Darfur Fast (sic)]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:25 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

Arab Radio

Our friend The Father of Aardvarks has an interesting little piece drawing attention to a new report on Arab radio from the Arab Advisors Group; a very solid media advisory group founded a few years back (I should disclose that I know one of the founders, and have done business with him).

Our fine Father of Aardvarks, or Bou Aradvraak as I like to call him, largely concetrates on the public policy angle, which is important, but I find the business angle as interesting.

Continue reading "Arab Radio"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 05, 2005

Insomnia and Arab Singles Sites: Random Thoughts

Can’t sleep, so I’m surfing Arablounge.com, an Arab singles site.

It showed up on the bloody Google Ads bar, I swear.

The site appears to be aimed primarily at younger Americans/Europeans with Mideast backgrounds (Christian and Muslim) and seems to reflect North American online dating culture. Vastly different from the UAE section of Shaadi.com, a mega-personals site that I had the opportunity to…er…study in-depth some months ago. The most obvious difference between these two sites is that Shaadi.com is branded as a matrimonials site where people create profiles with the specific intent of finding a spouse (sometimes on behalf of a sibling or son/daughter). Unlike your average Western dating website, Shaadi profiles provide detailed information on religion, caste/subcaste, values (liberal, moderate, conservative), mother tongue, complexion (fair, wheatish, medium, etc) and most amusingly, residency status. I imagine that this might be particularly important for the large Indian/Pakistani expat population in Dubai.

Shaadi.com has a rather large selection of Asian Muslims, but hardly any Arabs or Turks (my personal preference, if I may be momentarily superficial). There is, however, another matrimonial site that focuses primarily on the Middle East and North Africa: Qiran.com.

Continue reading "Insomnia and Arab Singles Sites: Random Thoughts"

Posted by eerie at 11:44 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

October 04, 2005

Aden, 1967

Via Lenin's Tomb, an article in the Socialist Worker points out that the other occupying power in the Iraq war was ALSO involved in a dirty little counterinsurgency war in the 1960s. So skip past the obligatory British political infighting and the "colonialist butcher" reference, and you get to the meat:

One British army officer in Aden in 1967 describes the developing disaster in the following familiar terms:

“A major problem which was to recur throughout the campaign was the lack of any specific, reliable intelligence about the enemy — where they were, what their organisation was, what their aims and objectives might be, or indeed, who they were”...

Readers of British newspapers at the time were treated to a bewildering array of acronyms to describe the competing factions of the resistance in Aden, as well as tales of “foreign extremists” from Egypt and Yemen.

These militias, strangely, appeared set on killing British soldiers as well as each other, despite the fact that Britain had promised them independence as soon as the trouble had stopped.

What made it worse was that the security forces themselves appeared to be arming various organisations — and there were growing fears of clashes between the local police and militia and the British army.

Continue reading "Aden, 1967"

Posted by tomscud at 01:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

And in other Ramadan related news, Al Qaeda goes for the "Yes we are bloody minded barbarians, thank you very much" award

On the wires, Al Qaeda in Iraq (yes, I know, it's very much a poorly controlled franchising thing, but hey, lessons in brand management - bad and good) has called for getting down to the really fun business of blowing up foreign infidels and Shia as well one should think.

I did like the cited slaves of the cross phrasing, it actually has a nice ring to it. Much more interesting than that ugly non-sense, "Islamofascist" the American Bolshy Right, its fellow travellers and assorted semi-literates have taken to using. They should take rhetoric lessons from the al-Qaeda people (who are actually, all things being equal, somewhat good at rhetoric - that and of course senselessly blowing up innocents, but can't ask for everything in the world).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:01 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Ramadan Competition (updated)

Once again we have the peculiar situation of Ramadan beginning on different days in the region

Middle East Muslims begin Ramadan. Although not noted, Morocco and Tunisia, like Oman are going to start a day later.

Whether true or not, there is widespread perception (among Maghrebines) that these decisions (in the case of Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria) are political - to show "indepedence."

A queer dynamic.

[An Update & Clarification]

Per a comment made, I believe I should expand and clarify for certain sub-literates who were or are unable to parse this and thus came to the rather queer understanding this comment was motivated by a lack of understanding of how Ramadan works:

Continue reading "Ramadan Competition (updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:57 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

October 03, 2005

Morocco: Rulership & Development (Edited - Updated)

Daniel Drezner noted an interesting if somewhat weak article in The New York Times on Morocco in the context of asking how MENA states can transition to real rule of law

I call the article weak as it failed to properly differentiate the Moroccan royal context from the rest of the region - a context I would call relatively unique given the fairly deep historical depth of the monarchy, its combined historical political (pre and post colonial) and religious (Alaouites are shurfa) legitimacy in most circles and the recent role of M6 (Mohammed the Sixth's popular nickname in Morocco) in liberalisation.

This is a far cry away from the made up Kings of Jordan, the President-Kings of the rest of the region.

Of course that does not make the Royals of Morocco invulnerable nor infallible. However, their roots of political power and legitimacy run far deeper than most MENA governments.

[Edit to note an addition re a comment on Drezner's blog: see end of entry]

Continue reading "Morocco: Rulership & Development (Edited - Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 01, 2005

Irshad Manji Left Guilt and Likoudnik Agitprop

Although this is an immensely tardy comment, I must thank eerie for the reference to The Globe & Mail letter from Tarek Fateh, which drew my attention to Irshad Manj's odd statement or claim regarding Muslim guilt in regards to the Holocaust. I confess I know Irshad (a fine name I may add) only by the few articles on her book & her articles and interviews. Rather simply, her book isn't available to me in this non-anglo environment.

Continue reading "Irshad Manji Left Guilt and Likoudnik Agitprop"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:07 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

September 28, 2005

Sexy Arab Abaya Women, Assumptions: US Public Diplomacy in KSA

Returning to a subject more or less dear to 'Aqoul, women in the Arab world, for a moment, I wanted to draw attention to this intriguing article from the visit by US public diplomacy director Karen Hughes to Saudi Arabia: Saudi Women Have Message for U.S. Envoy

Let me first say little in the article was surprising to me (including Ms. Hughes surprise that the "Sisters" did not look at their cultural heritage and mores in the same light as she expected), but it is a useful one for reflexion. Thus some comments on the article:

Update: The Financial Times also has this story. Better done actually.

Continue reading "Sexy Arab Abaya Women, Assumptions: US Public Diplomacy in KSA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:25 AM | Comments (26) | TrackBack

September 12, 2005

Underdevelopment as Dilettantisme: Why MENA Does Not Attract Capital, Reason No. 5

While sadly behind on my ability to comment substantively, I thought a bit of a comment on dilettanstisme would be worth a quick intervention (and it being all I have time for, it's what one gets).

The comment is provoked by a series of convos over the past few days in regards to a certain MENA country (which for various sensitivity reasons shall remain unnamed) and its hosting of a MENA region investment conference. Let's say that our certain MENA country is not exactly a star performer in the realm of attracted FDI, per capita or in gross. Of course neither is the region.

There are multitudes of reasons for this. The one to be discussed today, dilettantisme.

Continue reading "Underdevelopment as Dilettantisme: Why MENA Does Not Attract Capital, Reason No. 5"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:25 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 26, 2005

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)

Added Thoughts on Private Equity for Devleopment MENA

I neglected to touch on a few key points in my original note, below are further thoughts on private equity and economic development for the MENA region.

Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Economist - a fine arty on Jihadis as Anarchists

A bit late I admit, but I get my Economist a week late, and very much prefer the print edition to online reading. Being primative.

The article in question:
For jihadist, read anarchist

I very much enjoyed this as this is something that I have been making as a point in several conversations online, in regards to the neglected similarities to the radical anararchist movement of the end of the 19th century in Europe and the Americas.

Continue reading "Economist - a fine arty on Jihadis as Anarchists"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:48 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 25, 2005

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development

A few weeks ago I raised the subject of emerging markets private equity in particular in the context of US Gov efforts to utilize the vehicle to further its political / development goals in the Middle East – North Africa region. One of our online world colleagues if you will posed a question to me as to what the “The Lounsbury” approach would be, in the context of my expressed skepticism in regards to the investment vehicle / definition chosen by The Overseas Private Equity Corporation.

Ironically (well not really) at present I am working on materials closely related to just this question, although not really in regards to development – but as much of the private equity activity in region has been international development institution driven there is a clearly overlap. Now, having sent drafts of my materials off for comment I can take a moment to sketch out some preliminary thoughts on the issue that will be the basis for future comment.

First, my assumptions, based on personal experience in the region and in the “sector” if we can call it that. Again, these are my a priori assumptions and principes.

Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:34 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Water, Business & Privatisation

A fine comment in The Financial Times today on water services privatisation that has no small meaning for the MENA region.

The private sector can get water flowing to the poor
By Fredrik Segerfeldt
Published: August 24 2005 20:14 | Last updated: August 24 2005 20:14

A subject of long interest to me, as some know, dating back to my time in Egypt where I was appaled at the sheer madness of Egypt's water policies.

Well, actually I spent much of my time appalled by everything in Egypt, but that is another matter.

It is an abiding shame that the idiot anti-globalisation fools opposed sensible privatisation of water services under emotive and illiterate cries of "human rights" and the like, while all too typically ignoring the fact of real costs of water services which get borne by the poor one way or another.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:07 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 16, 2005

Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes

A somewhat quick note building off of a comment by the esteemed Nadezhda in regards to my rapid note on a new US Gov private equity fund _{(also with more rough perso comments at Lounsbury )} backed by the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a US parastatal investment insurance and financing house whose main line of business is political risk insurance on US direct investments in risky locales.

I have been intending - and still intend to - write some commentary on this specific issue of private equity (or in general equity finance) in the MENA region, but I thought some quick notes on this OPIC backed private equity fund for the MENA region are in order, and in response to some notes by Nadezhda - whose name I have learned to spell now.

Continue reading "Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 11, 2005

Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced

At the risk of descending into flackery or something approaching it, I thought a brief comment here might be fun.

OPIC BOARD APPROVES $75 MILLION FOR MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA FUND

Certainly this plays into my personal interests.

[Updated with correction below]
[Update with a question: Is there a debate to be had here regarding using such tools for acheiving a policy goal?]

Continue reading "Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 04, 2005

On Terror, Tea Cups and Jumping - Re Conclusions

If I may permit myself a snide aside based on this article:
London Bombers Used Ordinary Materials, and in partial connexion with my own note, Tempests & Tea Pots regarding a rather overdone, hysteric to an extent and generally ridiculous and poorly informed online debate on terrorism.

Continue reading "On Terror, Tea Cups and Jumping - Re Conclusions"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 01, 2005

Sex and Citizenship: Morocco, Jordan, Foreigners Boinking and Children's citizenship

Our industrious friend Abu Aardvark(s) _{(known affectionately in our Maghrebine parlance now, in honour of the second Aardvark as Bou Aradvrak)} had some interesting comments on Morocco's newly announced move, via the Moroccan King's Throne speech this weekend, to change Moroccan law to grant citizenship to the children of foreigners and Moroccan women. This will end, when eventually enacted, decades of paterfamilias centered citizenship policy.

Bou Aradvrak indicated he hoped this would have a positive effect on the Jordanian dynamic where similar liberalisation has been stalled:
Progress for Arab Women & Children as his blog arty is entitled.

Continue reading "Sex and Citizenship: Morocco, Jordan, Foreigners Boinking and Children's citizenship"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:52 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Dead, also. John Garang

I suppose it speaks to the ambiguity of The Sudan that I hesitated as to the relevancy, but nevertheless, John Garang was killed in an apparently weather related helo crash. This set off, as al-Jazeera showed this AM violence in Khartoum.

Continue reading "Dead, also. John Garang"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 27, 2005

On IMF, Populism, Yemen & Jordan: Populism as Self Defeat, or why subsidy riots are not wins

A small note in response to a note by our friend, the Father of Aardvark(s) _{(hmmmm, I believe that I should create an Arabised plural, and for the sheer fun of it, a broken one, so from now on, Abu Aardvark to me is Abu Araadvaraak (abusing grammar and presuming Ardvark is a compound word), or in Maghrebine form Bou Aradvrak).} on the 'victory' of the Yemani street in reversing the revision of subsidised petrol prices.

Continue reading "On IMF, Populism, Yemen & Jordan: Populism as Self Defeat, or why subsidy riots are not wins"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:09 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 26, 2005

Combating Terrorism, Part II, or: Why Do They Still Hate Us?

Why Do They Hate Us? Not Because of Iraq

In a recent New York Times op-ed piece (free registration required), Olivier Roy questions the nature of the relationship between Islamic terrorism and the Israel/Palestine conflict; after all, many of the splashiest Islamic terrorist acts of the past few years have taken place either on the periphery of the parts of the Islamic world that have traditionally drawn Western attention (e.g. Afghanistan, Chechnya), places that haven’t been part of the Muslim world for several centuries (Spain), or places which only recently have experienced an influx of Muslims (England, the U.S.)

Continue reading "Combating Terrorism, Part II, or: Why Do They Still Hate Us?"

Posted by evaluna at 10:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

July 14, 2005

Islam & Terror - Profounder Reflections

As noted, I remain submerged in corporate flackery and spin, but I wanted to bring several items to everyone's attention.

First, the esteemed Abu Aardvark has two important posts up:

Murphy: Can Islam's leaders reach its radicals?

and

The massacre of children

Continue reading "Islam & Terror - Profounder Reflections"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:01 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

July 13, 2005

Muslims in Europe - London Bombings as Domestic Terror and Suicide

Being frightfully busy writing corporate propaganda (otherwise known as responding to transparency in quarterly reporting by - as the French rather wonderfully put it, putting heavy make up on the accounts), I am afraid this is as much an open post as anything.

Nevertheless, The Financial Times and other sources report that the identity of the actual bombers, who do indeed appear to have been suicide bombers, has more or less been established.

Continue reading "Muslims in Europe - London Bombings as Domestic Terror and Suicide"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:01 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

July 07, 2005

An extended comment on IMF, Jordan discussion

As this is rather long for comments, a small entry on the IMF, Jordan and Liberalism discussion based on our esteemed co-author, ridemycamel, who again hopefully will pardon my poor manners, sharp tongue and the like.

I also note that due to popular outcry, I am introducing block quoting. I dislike it, but have to maintain some pretension to customer service or our financier will dump me. (Although it was such a pain to add I can't promise consistancy here)

Continue reading "An extended comment on IMF, Jordan discussion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

London Bombings

We're all watching developments in London, obviously. The al-Qaeda statement claiming responsibility was apparently published in Arabic on al-Qal'ah, should anyone feel inclined to translate/comment.

Update - Wikimedia has a screenshot:

BBC has translated the statement.

Posted by eerie at 12:34 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

July 06, 2005

Media, Reform, US Gov and Business

On US Gov and Media Reform, an email
I reproduce here an email from a friend of mine in private equity and media in the Middle East, located out there. And an Arab too, not some whinging expat (ahem).

It is lightly edited to scrub certain references and the like, but I share it for its interest. I note that some US Gov types wanted to meet with media actors, including from the business side. I made the introduction. Here is my amigo's note afterward.

Continue reading "Media, Reform, US Gov and Business"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:58 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack