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Iraq War Archives


April 23, 2008

Another Good Conspiracy Theory Down the Drain

Al Qaeda says an Israeli conspiracy didn't do 9/11. And, it adds, Iran started the Israel conspiracy rumor. Is that itself a conspiracy rumor?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:43 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

December 28, 2007

Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work

Finally figuring out what anyone here could have told them years ago, US forces in Iraq have earned at least a B-plus in Empire-Building 101 -- not that that's a good thing, but it can salve a sore wound for an indefinite period. The principle is to use local power structures as your surrogates, basically by bribing them. This USA Today story details it well. (Thanks to a Klaus call, we have a link for the original stick-figure anti-insurgent plan offered by a later-killed US soldier here.)

Tribal sheiks . . . have seats on most of the city councils and the provincial council. . . . Many tribes run construction and trucking businesses and benefit from U.S. and Iraqi government reconstruction projects. The contracts with U.S. forces allow sheiks to hand out jobs, and thus maintain power.

Continue reading "Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 04:39 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

December 16, 2007

Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure

Not often do I get to be more right than Jim Henley, but here I claim it though I can't document my earlier growing sense that The Surge would turn out better than we cynics first expected. (The last time he was wrong, which goes back years, so was I, as when he predicted that Ariel Sharon would not go through with the Gaza withdrawal.) But now he is surprised that violence has not rebounded in Iraq since The Surge in a way he has predicted. I am far less surprised however and, although I started as a Surge Cynic as shown here, I have come to feel after more information that there has been a good chance of some sustained suppression of the violence. More on why, below.

Continue reading "Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:58 AM | Comments (28) | TrackBack

December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

Continue reading "NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 08, 2007

Jasim & The Argot Naughts: Why That Name in Iraq?

I come up with naught when I search memories of Eastern Mediterranean Arabs and their dialects, patois, and argots, for Jasim and variants as personal names. Yet every single flippin' story from Iraq has someone named Jasim in it. What's the deal with that? (And yes, my worst allusion-pun ever.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:28 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

November 03, 2007

Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington

I have to borrow from the discussion on the previous thread the quotation below. It's from a book review of at-best mixed value but by someone with the knowledge to make the statement. Tell me its assertion is false. Please, God, please......

Continue reading "Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

October 18, 2007

Iraq: Lessons in Risk & Investment

I was amused to read this New York Times arty on US military "concern" over Iranian and Chinese contracting and investment in Iraq.

Aside from providing a certain amusing lesson in economic interest, there are two key lessons here:
(i) That in high risk environments, private capital is cowardly (and rightly so),
(ii) that the US has and still is trying to "do" Iraq on the cheap and without real effort - not national mobilisation despite the Good & Evil rhetoric and calls to Second World War Hollywood imagery. No, drip, drip in billions of just enough for the moment to give the semblance of serious effort to the domestic audiences.

It makes the failure in Iraq sadder, but also more amusing to have the Chinese giving lessons in risk. It also makes more ridiculous the various ill conceived and half baked "economic initiatives" the Americans have launched in MENA, and Iraq - driven more by ideological wishful and magical thinking about magic entrepreneurship and private initiative springing full-formed out of Zeus's head than real effort to drive change, their "key word" parroted constantly and tiresomely in every bloody conference they bloody show up at.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:41 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

October 12, 2007

Talking Turkey (and Armenia and Kurdistan)

So the PKK is threatening to kill Turkish politicians now. A quick glance at the "related stories" link tells the past few days' story pretty handily:

To sum up a bit more fully: after a series of attacks in eastern Turkey by the PKK, the Turkish government is threatening to move militarily into northern Iraq to strike back at suspected bases up to 60 km inside the Iraqi border. The Iraqi government has refused permission for the invasion; the Kurdish regional government has tried to be conciliatory, urging some kind of non-military action "because it's our problem too"; Americans and Europeans have also warned against an attack. Nonetheless, the army has already shelled suspected bases on the border, and the government is seeking approval from parliament for an "incursion".

Continue reading "Talking Turkey (and Armenia and Kurdistan)"

Posted by tomscud at 12:07 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

September 26, 2007

Abu Aardvark on The Surge & The Sunni Leadership

A personal favorite political magazine's blog presents a personal favorite political institute's video of an Aqoul favorite blogger Marc Lynch, aka Abu Aardvark, speaking at a conference at the CATO Institute on THE SURGE. The professorial Father of Aardvarks opines about the recent Iraq Sunni insurgent-US military cooperation, but bases his insights on Arabic language media and internet communications of Sunni community leaders. The conclusions he arrives at are basically that the Sunni leaders are stating to their very anti-US constituency that cooperation with the USA is merely tactical and the result of insurgent victories which forced the US to assist them in certain common aims of fighting al-Qaeda and fighting some Shiite militias. They view the government and al-Sadr as "Iranian" and they eventually want the entire US occupation out. In addition, the conditions are such that further sectarian fragmentation is underway and no matter how long the US stays, it appears the conditions will remain ripe for sectarian war. Informed readers, have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:48 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 13, 2007

Iran War On the Way: More Evidence

It appears that I may have been right to call attention to those saying a war on Iran is being rolled out by the Administration. An informed and expert source in DC affirmed it to me as well a few days back. And it looks like the usual suspect sources are now marketing it. (Love the part where we can mysteriously tell that the Germans really want us to attack even as they back away from sanctions against Iran. Saying "no" when they really mean "yes", those Teutonic teases!) Michael Ledeen appears to be the one whose job is to incite the converted; he who says that al-Qaeda and Iran are interchangeable terms and at one point called Dubai, an "Iranian colony". Man, all them dang camel jockeys are the same and interchangeable, and that thinking is how one manufactures a war. Anyway, Aqoulites and Aqoulite wannabes with Iran-specific knowledge are needed to weigh in, now and in the future.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:19 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

September 09, 2007

Quick Roundup of News on Roundups

{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)

Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)

Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.

And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 07, 2007

Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day

Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."

Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"

In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".

Continue reading "Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 02, 2007

Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?

The informed blogosphere and newsosphere are abuzz with rumors* that a US war, or a sustained attack (i.e.war), on Iran is being put out for aggressive marketing by Administration innards this week. Events will prove this true or false. Regardless of the rightness or wrongness of such a thing, if it is being planned, I do wonder if the questions and considerations below have been addressed.

Continue reading "Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

August 22, 2007

Material Support

Via Jim Henley, a wide-ranging interview with Nir Rosen on "Democracy Now". He covers the situation in Iraq, which is depressing but could hardly be surprising to anyone who's been following the news at all closely. There's some stuff about Nahr El Bared camp in Lebanon, the clash between Fatah al Islam and the Lebanese government – Rosen falls into the "Hariri's allies, if not Hariri himself, were supporting Fatah al Islam" school of analysis there.

But the thing that brought me up short was the discussion of Iraqi refugees' prospects for entry into the United States:

Continue reading "Material Support"

Posted by tomscud at 02:00 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 16, 2007

Iraq: Ahhh, the military is infiltrated by Shia...

I found this quite comical really: Andrew Sullivan takes cue from credulous Totten in noticing, aha, the Iraqi military is rather riddled with Shia militia members or sympathizers; although the bit about Mahdi Army being Iran's "major proxy in Iraq... in effect, the Iraqi branch of Hezbollah" is comical on the part of Totten.

Well in any case, watching the Americans blunder about with Iraq (and bloody hell, Iran) now is no doubt what it was like to watch Vietnam from afar, in the early 1970s. Already clearly lost, and already clearly a disaster... they try desperately to convince themselves something can be done. Responsibility and all that.

Continue reading "Iraq: Ahhh, the military is infiltrated by Shia..."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:39 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 13, 2007

A Cheney is only as strong as the weakest link

This American Enterprise Institute resident's expert comments, from circa 1994, are making the rounds, as well they should. Perhaps no one in the current Administration had encountered these thoughts, during the buildup to the Iraq invasion.


Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 31, 2007

Weapons for Everyone

As you might already have read, the United States has announced a massive arms package covering Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf countries. Guardian columnist Brian Whitaker, a Middle East expert, believes the deal is a bad idea, as it will inflame Sunni-Shia tensions throughout the region. While I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Whitaker, I must respectfully disagree with him and say I consider the deal a good idea overall.

Continue reading "Weapons for Everyone"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:36 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

June 12, 2007

Desperately Seeking Sudan: Key War on Terror Ally

This Baltimore Sun story is not too much of a surprise for those who connect the dots and are somewhat informed. "Sudan has secretly worked with the CIA to spy on the insurgency in Iraq . . . . The relationship underscores the complex realities of the post-Sept. 11 world, in which the United States has relied heavily on intelligence and military cooperation from countries, including Sudan and Uzbekistan, that are considered pariah states for their records on human rights. "

Now does anyone know of any Hariri connection?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:42 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 02, 2007

How Do You Say "Chutzpah" in Arabic?

The Department of Homeland Security, in a nod to the U.S.' long tradition of aiding those huddled masses who yearn to breathe free (or at least yearn to refrain from having their heads blown off), has announced that a whopping total of 60 Iraqis will shortly be admitted to the U.S. as refugees - but only if they pass the required security checks, of course.

Continue reading "How Do You Say "Chutzpah" in Arabic?"

Posted by evaluna at 12:00 PM | Comments (33) | TrackBack

May 12, 2007

Sheikh Up Shakes Up with a Shakedown

Counterinsurgency in Iraq's Anbar province has apparently neutralized some major al-Qaeda elements. Getting smarter, the US has enabled local sheikhs, and rather young ones, to reassert themselves. While this new Corleone-in-diapers is ambiguous on the US presence, one thing is clear. He's gonna collect his cash. The McClatchy Washington Bureau story is just one long "pay me" shakedown pitch.

Continue reading "Sheikh Up Shakes Up with a Shakedown"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 28, 2007

Maybe All is Not Lost in Translation

Apparently the U.S. Congress has taken notice that a grand total of fifty green cards per fiscal year was not going to meet the demand created by Iraqi and Afghan translators who have placed their lives in danger by serving as translators and interpreters for U.S. forces.

Continue reading "Maybe All is Not Lost in Translation"

Posted by evaluna at 12:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 06, 2007

My Inner Neocon & Iran's Shatt Across the Bow

No, I don't want us or Britain to go to war with Iran. Heck, I'm a "cut and runner" on Iraq from before it happened. But am I the only one not of neoconnish-hawkish outlook who is a little perturbed that uniformed professional British sailors and Marines, engaged in lawful patrolling and probable legitimate intelligencing, roll over and "confess"? (Side note to antiwar folks: the coalition presence is now lawful, regardless of other moral or prudential non-rectitude.) Civilians, I understand. Me, I'll give away your social security number when faced with a nail clipper. But what happened to stiff upper lip; name, rank and serial number? If they were tortured or threatened I won't judge, but at least I'd want to know. UPDATE: Rolling over does make a little more sense after these revelations of mock executions, etc..

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:49 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

March 29, 2007

The Madness of King George & The Terror of the Fearful Jacobin Republic

An anectdotal reflexion on recent MENA anti-American developments prompted by a somewhat amusing discussion with an American financial sector consulting friend of mine about his recent work in the Middle East and the "shocking" levels of anti-American sentiment as compared to only 3 or 4 years ago. This fellow, of a conservative East Coast background nevertheless has had enough of in region experience prior to the Right Bolshevik Coup to have seen the precipitious decline in American image in region (and elsewhere of course).

What I found interesting was his recitation of leading and very connected American educated financial sector (most of whom I know more or less well) figures whose views had shifted from pro-American to anti, reflecting various levels of frustration. What was most peculiar in this conversation was that I cannot recall a similarly structured one - that is veering off from business to American politics.

(apologies on the title, it is late, I have much work still to do, and much rhum drunk)
link fixed 30 March

Continue reading "The Madness of King George & The Terror of the Fearful Jacobin Republic"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

March 06, 2007

Iraq Oil Law Discussion

Somewhat tardily, but at reader request, a note on the new Iraqi oil law bill in cabinet, as reported in the FT.

My quick reaction: meaningless bollocks. My longer reaction, bloody idiotic meaningless bollocks just like the fucking schools painted and other such nonsense that only idiotic innocents with no fucking sense of fucking reality will get excited about. There are no economics to discuss. There is no way to model having your pipelines constantly cut and if you're in Kurd Land, the Kurds losing control of their production, a political threat of no small probability.

Reader reactions welcome.

[NB: corrected some idiotic early AM grammatical blunders, linking idiocies and the like-CL 7 march]

Continue reading "Iraq Oil Law Discussion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:19 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 14, 2007

Lost in Translation: U.S. Policy Toward Iraqi Translators and Interpreters

With an estimated 3.8 million Iraqis currently living as refugees, it’s not surprising that the U.S. might want to help by taking in a few hapless souls until Iraq stabilizes. So I wasn’t at all shocked to see that Washington has offered to provide refugee visa slots for its customary drop in the bucket. That’s right - 7,000 lucky Iraqis, or 0.18% of those who have fled during the current conflict alone, will be granted the opportunity to start over in the U.S. in the form of asylum.

Continue reading "Lost in Translation: U.S. Policy Toward Iraqi Translators and Interpreters"

Posted by evaluna at 11:03 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

January 26, 2007

"From Iraqi society to societies in Iraq" - Some further thoughts

I just published this article on Niqash, but since the guidelines of that project (it is financed by various European foreign offices & U.N. agencies) mandated a very balanced tone and - rightly so - doesn't allow for us editors to engage in conjecture and speculation (however informed & sound) ... I thought I should use Aqoul to (1) point to the article and (2) expand upon some themes.

(The article in question is also my last work for Niqash as the project has ended and there is no telling if there will be any follow-up. I am thus also looking around for "something new", as they say, so do feel free to contact me if you want to hire me.)

Update: Added a few links for further reading (Twice)

Continue reading ""From Iraqi society to societies in Iraq" - Some further thoughts"

Posted by MSK at 01:24 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

January 09, 2007

Wishful Thinking, Grasping at Straws, and Other Habits of Highly Effective Pundits

I know that taking Andrew Sullivan apart whenever he embarasses himself talking about Islam is old hat on this blog, but his recent post about the possible benefits of the Iraqi civil war for the war on terror deserves special mention. You see, by declaring victory and then leaving Iraqis to slaughter each other, we counter al-Qaeda's "West versus Islam" narrative with an "Islam versus Islam" narrative.

Continue reading "Wishful Thinking, Grasping at Straws, and Other Habits of Highly Effective Pundits"

Posted by homais at 02:05 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

January 07, 2007

Surge Protectors: Conference on Iraq Escalation

Senators McCain and Lieberman, and an apparently scary looking General Keane, explained and defended the new Iraq surge plan (2 years!) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the neoconservative cerberal cortex. This account by ChicagoDyke will amusingly explain it all to you. It is quite unnerving to realize that Monty Python's Inspector Leopard of the Yard's signature line "The same -- only more violent!" is the new thought-through policy of the powers-that-be. In any event, the conferees made it seem like we are just winning and winning. Elsewhere we learn that we are going to get Iraqis to paint schools. And clean streets. Because they are no good at security. No mention on whether they were going to also be paid to shine shoes. More below. (Via Henley, again.)

Continue reading "Surge Protectors: Conference on Iraq Escalation"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:03 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

January 05, 2007

Saddam Execution & Recent Events: A Moroccan Perspective

The casual reader of Tel Quel, a trendy francophone Moroccan weekly, or, to a lesser extent, of Le Journal hebdomadaire, might be forgiven for thinking that the average Moroccan is more interested in the depenalisation of cannabis, the right to convert to Southern Baptism or whether algebra will be taught in Tamazight than in events in the Middle East. One Tel Quel journalist wrote "Je n’aime pas le Hezbollah" ("I don't like Hezbollah"), thus showing how disconnected this magazine is from the broad strands of Moroccan public opinion - fiercely pro-Palestinian, pro-Hezbollah and anti-US.

Continue reading "Saddam Execution & Recent Events: A Moroccan Perspective"

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 05:10 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

January 02, 2007

Eid 'Em & Weep: Was Saddam's Death-Timing Sectarian?

Nir Rosen suggests that the timing of Saddam's death on the Sunni Eid was a sectarian message: as there are no lawful executions on Eid, therefore legally the true Iraqi Eid must be the Shiite one. Is there any merit to this implication, O informed readers? Was it clearly a gottersaddamerung message for the Sunni side of the street? A look and listen at the lynch-mobbish hanging of Saddam (sensitive readers, don't go there) suggests a very sectarian sendoff. Faithful Aqoulite MSK has helpfully made note in comments of one blog and one NY Times account.

Continue reading "Eid 'Em & Weep: Was Saddam's Death-Timing Sectarian?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

December 30, 2006

In Iraq, how can one tell Sunnis from Shi'ites by their names?

A few days ago, our colleague Jim Henley wrote the following post:

Iraqi Onomastics Bleg

You know what would be great? A handy internet reference that identifies common Iraqi given names as “Sunni,” “Shiite” or “Ambiguous.” We know that death squads shoot people for having the wrong name. And we know that anyone quoted in a media story is going to be situated in Iraq’s ethnic/sectarian conflict, whether he or she wants to be or not. It would be useful to be able to see a name and know the speaker’s religious identity.

Indeed, it would be neat for many in the West to have lists of Sunni and Shi'ite names handy. Alas, reality isn't so kind.

Continue reading "In Iraq, how can one tell Sunnis from Shi'ites by their names?"

Posted by MSK at 05:25 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

December 16, 2006

"Bomb-bomb-bomb / Bomb-bomb Iran" was cleverer

This heartwarming scene of US soldiers leading Iraqi kids in a sing-a-long (well, a chant-along) has enough irony to send O. Henry running back to prison (despite Wikipedia vandals apparently changing his name in the entry to Poop Face).

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:57 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

December 12, 2006

Iraq Budget Woes: Graft, Bureaucracy and Fiefdoms

Came across an article in the NYT reporting that Iraq's 27 ministries were spending as little as 15% of 2006 capital budget allocations for rebuilding. Salient points are highlighted below:

Among reasons for the problems — like a large turnover in government personnel — is a strange new one: bureaucrats are so fearful and confused by anticorruption measures put in place by the American and Iraqi governments that they are afraid to sign off on contracts...

American and Iraqi officials here are also saying that the stringent measures they had favored to slow the rampant corruption may be especially daunting for bureaucrats who have little experience with Western-style regulations and oversight. Those officials say that Iraqis who have seen their colleagues arrested and jailed in anticorruption sweeps are reluctant to put their own name on a contract.

A superficial reading of this article suggests an argument for more loosely regulated bureaucracy to speed up the disbursement of funds. That makes sense if one does not recall the USG CPA audit that revealed misappropriation of about $8.8 billion dollars. Unsurprisingly, the situation in Iraq makes a standard regs vs. no-regs debate a bit complicated.

Continue reading "Iraq Budget Woes: Graft, Bureaucracy and Fiefdoms"

Posted by eerie at 08:04 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 06, 2006

Iraq Study Group Report Released

Today the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group published its report that proposes a new course for the U.S. administration in Iraq, all neatly listed in 79 recommendations.

A pdf of the report can be downloaded here.

Having watched the one-hour news conference and read all 160 pages I am too bleary-eyed to write any detailed comments. In short, the report is very well done and - particularly against the backdrop of the past 5 years of U.S. policy towards Iraq and the Middle East as a whole - a remarkable document that everyone should read.

Now I'm waiting for the reaction from the White House.

Posted by raf* at 01:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 08, 2006

Rumsfeld Stepping Down

In the wake of popular dissatisfaction over the mishandling of Iraq (as shown in yesterday's elections), AP reports that Rumsfeld will be stepping down from his post as Secretary of Defense.

I'm sure members of our peanut gallery have opinions about potential shifts in US foreign policy now that Democrats have control of the House (and perhaps the Senate?). Feel free to yammer on and post links as things develop.

Posted by eerie at 01:04 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

November 02, 2006

CENTCOM briefing suggests impending chaos in Iraq

I don't normally do drive-by posts, but I found this slide strangely fascinating. It was published by the New York Times yesterday, along with an article describing factors and trends relating to stability and violence in Iraq.

Thoughts?

Posted by eerie at 12:20 PM | Comments (38) | TrackBack

October 28, 2006

On Iraq & Pre-War Predictions: What Do You Mean "We", Paleface?

Apologies to the old Lone Ranger joke. Clive Davis writes this lament of the disaster unfolding in Iraq. "It wasn't just the Bush team that made mistakes, of course. Didn't we all underestimate the challenge?" (emphasis added).

Ummm, no. That sentence may imply a whole new set of meanings for the words "we" and "all", hitherto unsuspected. Even my own neglected blog in early 2003 quoted this far-from-rare Jason Vest article from the (annoyingly) lefty mag The Nation that got it right. That article (and even little old me) were among so many others -- from every walk of life, punditry, as well as civilian and military industry, large and small -- who loudly forsaw everything, more or less. Not to mention our very own Aqoul curmudgeon. To the time machine!

Continue reading "On Iraq & Pre-War Predictions: What Do You Mean "We", Paleface?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:03 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

October 17, 2006

Iraq the Mortal: Lancet reports 800 gazillion slain

I'll probably update or followup as time permits (have updated now after the break), but we should note the recent study issued by The Lancet, which alleges some absurd figure for Iraqi deaths from coalition and other violence post-US invasion -- a followup to their earlier study (see below for link to abstract), which at least had a broad enough confidence interval to fig leaf the foolishness. When I begged my government in 2002-3 not to enter this stupid war and occupation with all the cruelty and foolishness it would entail, I neglected to leave out the fact that it would perpetuate mass gulllibility among those who think "Bush & Co." is Hitler, and that any accusation should stick. And those, like the media, who think peer-reviewed medical literature is face-value gospel. Thankfully, a responsible and serious set of critics of the invasion/occupation/budding civil war, the Iraq Body Count, who actually ask critical questions and document the same matters in real time, has issued a serious commentary listing enough red flags about the Lancet study to decorate a communist banquet.

Continue reading "Iraq the Mortal: Lancet reports 800 gazillion slain"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:29 PM | Comments (27) | TrackBack

June 28, 2006

Putin Issues Hit on Diplomat Murderers in Iraq

Russian President Vladimir Putin is quite steamed at the moment over the recent murders of four Russian diplomats in Iraq, apparently committed in retaliation for Moscow’s behavior in Chechnya. In a further geographic expansion of his Chechen campaign, he has vowed to have Russian Special Forces knock off the diplomats’ killers , who had demanded that Russia withdraw from Chechnya. Some think Putin is but full of sound and fury on this one, but they may be forgetting his KGB past.

Iraqi sovereignty be damned, apparently - but then circumstantial evidence suggests that if Putin follows through, it wouldn’t be the first time that Russian nationals acted in their official capacity to violate a Middle Eastern country’s sovereignty in order to settle a Chechen separatist score.

Continue reading "Putin Issues Hit on Diplomat Murderers in Iraq"

Posted by evaluna at 10:58 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

May 29, 2006

On Iraq, Dinars & Informed Comment: Some Reflexions

Due to some misunderstanding, I thought I would make a follow-up comment on a semi-private email exchange on Iraq

The context then: I wrote Professor Cole of Informed Comment regarding a relatively tangential statement there regarding Iraqi dinars, monetary policy and some statement by Amer Taheri regarding the stability of the currency. Cole withdrew his original characterisation re Taheri, but then followed up with further comment, mentioning yours truly in both. Given the excuse, I thought I should correct some misapprehensions, as well as abusively ramble on, these being my core competencies, about currency valuation, Iraq and the like, perhaps secondarily some gratuitous abuse of various parties for my own personal entertainment.

Continue reading "On Iraq, Dinars & Informed Comment: Some Reflexions"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:21 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

May 23, 2006

Cole - Economic Illiteracy [Updated]

I ran across a piece of illiteracy on Juan Cole's blog that bears correcting. :

Taheri's standards of reasoning and evidence have recently been slipping. In a recent article on Iraq, he gave as good news the stability of the Iraqi dinar. But in fact the dinar is artificially pegged to the dollar. Its "stability" is the same "stability" that the Egyptian guinea used to have in the 1960s and 1970s when the government just arbitrarily set its exchange rate. When you do that, you get some apparent stability, but you also create a black market and a preference in the country for other currencies. If the Iraqi dinar was allowed to float, it would not be worth very much.

Contra Cole's statement, which I find bizarre and puzzling (and tending to support his critics that his hatred of the Bush Admin is pushing him into the realm of unanchored opposition. A pity as whatever his tediously predictable and stereotypical Left politics, his ability to comment on Sunni-Shia politics in Iraq is rare and valuable. It would be good also if he learned to keep his trap shut about all things economic, as his understanding is embarassingly superficial, even for a Lefist academic in social sciences).

[NDLR: I would be extremely remiss not to note that I sent the Professor a note on the side regarding the very subject of this post, and he very graciously accepted correction. Given the rather poor record of blogs as a general matter on the issue of correction, and the rather nasty (and usually overdone axe-grinding) attacks on the man by his ideological foes, I think I should note this. It's a pleasure to see (although it deflates me cranky 'beat him about the head' post on the matter, so I preserve the record and leave it to readers to flog me if necessary for being unduly negative)]

Continue reading "Cole - Economic Illiteracy [Updated]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 19, 2006

Friedman's Iraq Predictions Gone Flat

Glad he's no obstetrician. For three years now, Tom "Flat Earth" Friedman has been declaring a six-month due date for Iraq to give birth to its definitive fate. Courtesy of our commenter, alle, we learn of this new release from lefty media critics FAIR, wherein they track these continuous past and present six-month-or-so predictions for Iraq's Decisive Moment. Samples:

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:01 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

May 18, 2006

The Lighter Side of Civilizational Warfare

Check out Lazy Ramadi, IED Production's Liberation rap.

You thinkin' what I'm thinkin'/ Insurgency, man it's happenin'...It's all about the plastic cards, Cletus/Throw the stash in the bag/And head out like a fetus.../But there's no need to moan/'Cause the US Army won't let me go home

Poached from Henley, as usual.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:27 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

April 11, 2006

Baghdad Market: Canaries, Whores and Pimps

There remains something intriguing about the Baghdad exchange. At least for me, having worked through multiple incompleted deals whose ultimate consumation would take place on the Baghdad. An overview of the Exchange 3 years on, when (were it not for the festering and criminal incompetence of the US Administration in all its empty, idiotic posturing) we should have been reading of some contented Iraqis.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:46 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 07, 2006

Atlanta's Safe, Miss Scarlett, Just 'The MSM' Talkin'

Ok, fellow "moonbats", all together now, as we've been corrected: there is no civil war going on in Iraq. There, feel better? Surely these people don't. Especially horrid Najaf shrine slaughter a short time ago by 3 suicide bombers.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:30 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

February 28, 2006

Polls Apart: Iraq-Deployed US Troops Queried

LeMoyne College and Zogby International have performed a poll of US soldiers in Iraq. Among the just-released findings, a majority favor near total withdrawal in a short or immediate period (within the next year). Also:

Nearly nine of every 10 - 85% - said the U.S. mission is "to retaliate for Saddam's role in the 9-11 attacks," while 77% said they believe the main or a major reason for the war was "to stop Saddam from protecting al Qaeda in Iraq."

Note: I'm not making this up.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:37 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 23, 2006

Iraq the . . . What? Post-Bombing Reports

The following collage of commentary from an on-scene blog is unremarkable in light of general news reports of tragedy after the Golden Mosque bombing in Iraq. Except the name of the blog is just getting too much for my irony meter.

As if we didn't have enough problems already! . . . The quality of the target and the timing of the attack were chosen in a way that can possibly bring very serious consequences over the country. . . The situation in Baghdad is so tense now, . . . Things look scary here . . . I hope there won't be more updates to report. . . I can't see a positive thing coming out of this. . . . I don't want to even think of what can happen if this situation lasts longer than this. . . . Radio Sawa reported a short while ago that the central morgue in Baghdad received some 80 bodies of people who were killed with gun shots since Wednesday afternoon.

Yes, that's from Iraq...The Model?! Name change suggestions, anyone? Meanwhile, I'd hate to see what "Iraq, The Clusterf**k" is reporting.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:12 PM | Comments (30) | TrackBack

February 16, 2006

Propaganda, Iraq and Gaming - and Future Funds

Sadly I can not comment on this, other than to share the story and note that it confirms my observation months back that the Lincoln Group story was not a dark 'Neo Con' tale but one of dilletantes.

Quick Rise for Purveyors of Propaganda in Iraq

It is of course illustrative of the general problem with the Bush Administration's efforts in Iraq and MENA. Clumsy cronyism with amateurish dilletantes. A bit of cronyism here and there will happen. Human beings are human. The sins of the Bush Administration lie in their lack of competence in executing even cronyism, not as the simple minded Left would have it, in dark Right wing plots. A pity, I would enjoy a competent if unpleasant US government in world affaires. An incompetent, bumbling, often cretinously self-deluded US Government makes me life harder, and I don't enjoy that.

At least I can add that the Fund for the Future, that much vaunted initiative announced at the G8 meeting in Dubai is in fact a quietly dead letter for the moment. Ms Cheney got her panties all wet too soon. Perhaps the idea may get reworked to something vaguely rational.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:33 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

January 21, 2006

More Lurid Than Sex: Whither the Iraq Reconstruction Funds?

Rowan Scarborough of The Washington Times takes a look at the fate of missing billions in Iraq reconstruction funding, much of which, it appears, was handed out in cash. Not knowing the on-the-ground actors, I cannot comment on the account, but the losses to corruption seem likely, given the nature of governments in general, the region, and the kind of knowledge (biased and absent) about the region by those who wanted to run the place.

Finding out what happened to Iraq's $37 billion in oil-financed reconstruction funds -- its stacks of plastic-wrapped hundred-dollar bills popping up all over the country like play money -- has taken investigators down many paths, including one to the Defense Ministry office of Ziyad al Qattan. Questions about what happened to the fund, once held by the United Nations and turned over to the Bush administration, are part of a broader story of how the United States has spent billions in American and Iraqi money after Saddam Hussein was ousted in April 2003.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:45 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

January 16, 2006

USAID on Iraq

An important little article from The Washington Post:

USAID Paper Details Security Crisis in Iraq
By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, January 17, 2006; Page A13

Will comment further later.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 15, 2006

Iraq, Reconstruction, never learning lessons

Seen on The Washington Post:

Rice's Rebuilding Plan Hits Snags
Pentagon and Foggy Bottom Debate Funding, Staffing of Teams

While allowing the issue of limited resources on the part of the military and legit concerns about footprint, I did find this turn of phrase disappointing: defense officials are reluctant to take on new or expanded assignments, particularly those seen by some as having more to do with reconstruction than combating terrorism. The false dichotomy and the issue of the failed state rather bothers.

Now, as to the concept... well who knows? Getting staffing is going to be a problem, and the legit question as to the efficacity of creating little Green Zones hither and thither.

However, all this reminds me of the infuriating rotted pissing on when I tried to work with US Gov fools on creating financing vehicles for Iraqi sub-contractors (I do repeat I was always pleased with the realism of the on-the-ground State and related people, those with real emerging markets experience - at the same time the DoD fools and their ideological hangers-on with no sense of economics or business in emerging markets did not).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 12, 2006

US Military, Cultural Blindness, and Iraq Failure [Updated 12 January 2006: excellent FT expansion]

This article seems to have attracted little attention, for all that it has some amusing observations as well as indicative responses from US Mil: Briton criticises US Army for cultural ignorance, moralistic self-righteousness, unproductive micromanagement, unwarrented optimism - in short, very typically American "can do" self delusion that typified across the board failure by CPA-Iraq.

However, backward looking is less important than forward. Forward is the US Army/US DoD/US Mil reaction to what I found to be well-placed criticism I heard (differently framed) from my US Mil amigos. Not for dislike of their troopies, in frustration of the lack of prepration of said troopies for the real problems - inability to pull ou