Iraq War Archives

December 04, 2009

Black Iraqis - and awkward americanisms

An interesting if sadly superficial article Basra Journal - In Iraq’s African Enclave, Color Is Plainly Seen - NYTimes.com 

But on the packed dirt streets of Zubayr, Iraq’s scaled-down version of Harlem, African-Iraqis talk of discrimination so steeped in Iraqi culture that they are commonly referred to as “abd” — slave in Arabic — prohibited from interracial marriage and denied even menial jobs.

Historians say that most African-Iraqis arrived as slaves from East Africa as part of the Arab slave trade starting about 1,400 years ago. They worked in southern Iraq’s salt marshes and sugar cane fields.

But why, oh why the ugly Americanism "African-Iraqis"?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:17 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 20, 2009

Lewistful Thinking Reconsidered: A Conversion Narrative

However valuable Bernard Lewis may have been as a historian, his influence on recent academia/military/political thinking vis a vis MENA, has always been horribly worse than useless, but nevertheless quite significant. This account of a former academic disciple's ditching Lewis when encountering reality is worth reading if only to hear that when he encountered reality on the ground "with Bernard Lewis and Samuel Huntington as my guides, I ha[d] no way to make sense of such an encounter."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 01, 2009

US Tourists Hiking in Iraq: cretins deserve a few days in an Iranian gaol.

I am going to be a bit unkind re this story:BBC NEWS  US tourists 'being held by Iran'

The mountainous border region is popular for hiking, and the American walkers had no interpreter or bodyguards.

What the bloody fuck is anyone doing hiking in Iraq? Even Kurdistan region?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 06, 2009

Obama Talking to Just Arabs/Iran/MENA?

So says the Jakarta Post. That's in Indonesia. Jakarta, that is, not the Post. Well, the Post too but there are Posts everywhere.

At least three - democracy promotion, religious freedom and women's rights - of his seven points are more relevant to a region who's [sic] governments are bastions of despotism than [to] the average Indonesian,. . . . for the majority of Indonesians - Muslim or otherwise - these three issues are fundamental ways of life already held dear. . . Not surprisingly Indonesia's most eminent Muslim thinkers were products of Western scholarship, not Al-Azhar or Arab Universities . . ..But in Cairo he put an Arabic frame on a cultural dialog which most Muslims may not relate to.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 18, 2009

Iraq: Drink, Flesh... and journo convention

Secure Enough to Sin, Baghdad Is Back to Old Ways - NYTimes.com Worth a read although rather facile.

Gone, for the most part, are nighttime curfews, religious extremists and prowling kidnappers. So, inevitably, some people are turning to illicit pleasures, or at least slightly dubious ones.

Nightclubs have reopened, and in many of them, prostitutes troll for clients. Liquor stores, once shut down by fundamentalist militiamen, have proliferated; on one block of busy Saddoun Street, there are more than 10 of them.

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 13, 2009

The Wonderful Magic of War Zone Microfinance - Iraq

Following my short note in Lounsbury 'next door' a longer comment on the' FT arty "Small US loans are catalyst for Iraqi business"


First, on the item that most irritated on reading

“I have increased my earnings and improved my family’s quality of life,” says Hamza Abid Ali, a grape-grower from Balad who has quintupled his income since taking out a $2,400 (€2,200, £2,000) loan from the Al-Baydaa Centre, a US-backed microcredit scheme. “I was earning only 500,000 dinars [$432, €322, £292] from each donam [unit of land] on my vineyard,” says Mr Ali, a 33-year-old father of three.“But with my loan, I bought a water pump and some netting to go over the top of the grapes, and now I am making 4m dinars per donam.”

Emphasis added: Having read my share of Donor AgitProp, this sort of repetitiously canned donor-lang. gets under my skin. It is positively formulaic.

In particular as the one-off examples say fuck-all about eventual longer financing stability or economic impact (although of course the examples are intended for audiences that would not understand the same).

In any event, micro-credit is so bloody fashionable that it is hard to sort out real results from fashionable spin. I do confess, however, there is some impact, although I personally tend to find it to be more along the lines of "poverty maintenance" rather than the sort of investment and financing that can create long-term and real sustained wealth growth. Not that poverty maintenance does not have its place, in particular in corrupt systems where the longer run growth investment prospects are .... constrained shall we say? There poverty maintenance may be simply the best choice available.

Regardless, the background

Continue reading "The Wonderful Magic of War Zone Microfinance - Iraq"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:20 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 14, 2008

But. . . is it good for the shoes?

(Apologies to an old parochial expression.) President Bush encounters one meaning of leading a sole superpower when a journalist in Baghdad tosses his footwear at the US head of state. The arch terrorist reportedly shouted "This is the End". Jim Morrison is sadly incapable of comment.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:48 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

November 04, 2008

Barack Hussein Obama MENA Open Thread

Looks like America's first Hawaiian-bred, Kenyan-derived, Indonesian-educated, 1960s-born, Muslim-middle-named President-elect is about to be. What does the success of Obama/Biden portend, if anything, for the Middle East North Africa region? Obama's foreign affairs team seems not wildly new, at least in terms of the conventional US spectrum. Some discussion has already started on the monthly open thread.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 30, 2008

Marshall Plan vs Iraq War: Costs

Another trivia about costs: Several sources indicate the war in Iraq has cost about $550 billion so far. Comparatively, the Marshall Plan which helped repel communism in Western Europe by bringing prosperity and stability there, cost $13 billion, which in today’s money is equivalent to anywhere between $100 and $750 billion. Applicability of such a plan in MENA today vs. post war Europe?

Posted by Shaheen at 01:30 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 16, 2008

Georgia-MENA open thread

(Apologies for genuinely accidental labored allusion.) Anyway, Russia has been doing a bit of marching through Georgia, reviving the Cold War-era 1980s for a bit (assuming the decade had ever left). Readers, writers, commenters, members, computer-owners and -operators are invited to share their wisdom on the latest Caucasian occasion, but most particularly in ways it may relate to the Middle East North Africa regions. Iran yawns; Israel lays low; Turks get dissed; Georgia removes its legions from Mesopotamia. And Vladimir Putin has been confirmed as Tsar of all the Russias, every blasted one of them, even those little Russias that fall under the couch cushions.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:10 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

August 11, 2008

The (Un)Surprising Failure of the Iraqi Private Sector

An utterly unsurprising report from The New York Times on the failure of the Iraqi private sector to take off after many preictions and the US pissing away billions on quixotic efforts in this regard.

The irony of these events is, as in the case of the Iraqi state, the Americans will leave behind not a vibrant liberal democracy showing fine examples of the benefits of free market economics. Instead they will leave behind a quasi democracy dominated by parties tending to vilayet-i-fiqh thinking and a massive state run sector.

And that is all that can be reasonably expected insofar as until the bombs stop and there is real security (not "security" as trumpeted by the Right Bolsheviks in the US of A, but security that makes real private capital feel secure).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 06, 2008

Bring Us Your Poor, Your Tired, Etc., Unless They're Iraqi Refugees

The U.S. is currently patting itself on the back for admitting a whopping 6,480 Iraqi refugees to the U.S. since the start of U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, designed in response to the special needs of Iraqi refugees. While the admission of 4,872 Iraqi refugees to the U.S. this fiscal year is certainly an improvement over last year's total of 1,608, it's only a fraction of the 27,940 specially vetted referrals from UNHCR, let alone of the more than 4 million internally and externally displaced Iraqis.

Continue reading "Bring Us Your Poor, Your Tired, Etc., Unless They're Iraqi Refugees"

Posted by evaluna at 01:05 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

April 23, 2008

Another Good Conspiracy Theory Down the Drain

Al Qaeda says an Israeli conspiracy didn't do 9/11. And, it adds, Iran started the Israel conspiracy rumor. Is that itself a conspiracy rumor?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:43 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

December 28, 2007

Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work

Finally figuring out what anyone here could have told them years ago, US forces in Iraq have earned at least a B-plus in Empire-Building 101 -- not that that's a good thing, but it can salve a sore wound for an indefinite period. The principle is to use local power structures as your surrogates, basically by bribing them. This USA Today story details it well. (Thanks to a Klaus call, we have a link for the original stick-figure anti-insurgent plan offered by a later-killed US soldier here.)

Tribal sheiks . . . have seats on most of the city councils and the provincial council. . . . Many tribes run construction and trucking businesses and benefit from U.S. and Iraqi government reconstruction projects. The contracts with U.S. forces allow sheiks to hand out jobs, and thus maintain power.

Continue reading "Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 04:39 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

December 16, 2007

Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure

Not often do I get to be more right than Jim Henley, but here I claim it though I can't document my earlier growing sense that The Surge would turn out better than we cynics first expected. (The last time he was wrong, which goes back years, so was I, as when he predicted that Ariel Sharon would not go through with the Gaza withdrawal.) But now he is surprised that violence has not rebounded in Iraq since The Surge in a way he has predicted. I am far less surprised however and, although I started as a Surge Cynic as shown here, I have come to feel after more information that there has been a good chance of some sustained suppression of the violence. More on why, below.

Continue reading "Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:58 AM | Comments (28) | TrackBack

December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

Continue reading "NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 08, 2007

Jasim & The Argot Naughts: Why That Name in Iraq?

I come up with naught when I search memories of Eastern Mediterranean Arabs and their dialects, patois, and argots, for Jasim and variants as personal names. Yet every single flippin' story from Iraq has someone named Jasim in it. What's the deal with that? (And yes, my worst allusion-pun ever.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:28 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

November 03, 2007

Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington

I have to borrow from the discussion on the previous thread the quotation below. It's from a book review of at-best mixed value but by someone with the knowledge to make the statement. Tell me its assertion is false. Please, God, please......

Continue reading "Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

October 18, 2007

Iraq: Lessons in Risk & Investment

I was amused to read this New York Times arty on US military "concern" over Iranian and Chinese contracting and investment in Iraq.

Aside from providing a certain amusing lesson in economic interest, there are two key lessons here:
(i) That in high risk environments, private capital is cowardly (and rightly so),
(ii) that the US has and still is trying to "do" Iraq on the cheap and without real effort - not national mobilisation despite the Good & Evil rhetoric and calls to Second World War Hollywood imagery. No, drip, drip in billions of just enough for the moment to give the semblance of serious effort to the domestic audiences.

It makes the failure in Iraq sadder, but also more amusing to have the Chinese giving lessons in risk. It also makes more ridiculous the various ill conceived and half baked "economic initiatives" the Americans have launched in MENA, and Iraq - driven more by ideological wishful and magical thinking about magic entrepreneurship and private initiative springing full-formed out of Zeus's head than real effort to drive change, their "key word" parroted constantly and tiresomely in every bloody conference they bloody show up at.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:41 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

October 12, 2007

Talking Turkey (and Armenia and Kurdistan)

So the PKK is threatening to kill Turkish politicians now. A quick glance at the "related stories" link tells the past few days' story pretty handily:

• Turkey recalls ambassador to US (11 Oct 2007)
• Kurds urge Turkey not to attack (11 Oct 2007)
• Turkey seeks approval for Iraq raid (10 Oct 2007)
• Turkey warns US on Armenia bill (10 Oct 2007)

To sum up a bit more fully: after a series of attacks in eastern Turkey by the PKK, the Turkish government is threatening to move militarily into northern Iraq to strike back at suspected bases up to 60 km inside the Iraqi border. The Iraqi government has refused permission for the invasion; the Kurdish regional government has tried to be conciliatory, urging some kind of non-military action "because it's our problem too"; Americans and Europeans have also warned against an attack. Nonetheless, the army has already shelled suspected bases on the border, and the government is seeking approval from parliament for an "incursion".

Continue reading "Talking Turkey (and Armenia and Kurdistan)"

Posted by tomscud at 12:07 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

September 26, 2007

Abu Aardvark on The Surge & The Sunni Leadership

A personal favorite political magazine's blog presents a personal favorite political institute's video of an Aqoul favorite blogger Marc Lynch, aka Abu Aardvark, speaking at a conference at the CATO Institute on THE SURGE. The professorial Father of Aardvarks opines about the recent Iraq Sunni insurgent-US military cooperation, but bases his insights on Arabic language media and internet communications of Sunni community leaders. The conclusions he arrives at are basically that the Sunni leaders are stating to their very anti-US constituency that cooperation with the USA is merely tactical and the result of insurgent victories which forced the US to assist them in certain common aims of fighting al-Qaeda and fighting some Shiite militias. They view the government and al-Sadr as "Iranian" and they eventually want the entire US occupation out. In addition, the conditions are such that further sectarian fragmentation is underway and no matter how long the US stays, it appears the conditions will remain ripe for sectarian war. Informed readers, have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:48 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 13, 2007

Iran War On the Way: More Evidence

It appears that I may have been right to call attention to those saying a war on Iran is being rolled out by the Administration. An informed and expert source in DC affirmed it to me as well a few days back. And it looks like the usual suspect sources are now marketing it. (Love the part where we can mysteriously tell that the Germans really want us to attack even as they back away from sanctions against Iran. Saying "no" when they really mean "yes", those Teutonic teases!) Michael Ledeen appears to be the one whose job is to incite the converted; he who says that al-Qaeda and Iran are interchangeable terms and at one point called Dubai, an "Iranian colony". Man, all them dang camel jockeys are the same and interchangeable, and that thinking is how one manufactures a war. Anyway, Aqoulites and Aqoulite wannabes with Iran-specific knowledge are needed to weigh in, now and in the future.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:19 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

September 09, 2007

Quick Roundup of News on Roundups

{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)

Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)

Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.

And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 07, 2007

Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day

Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."

Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"

In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".

Continue reading "Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 02, 2007

Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?

The informed blogosphere and newsosphere are abuzz with rumors* that a US war, or a sustained attack (i.e.war), on Iran is being put out for aggressive marketing by Administration innards this week. Events will prove this true or false. Regardless of the rightness or wrongness of such a thing, if it is being planned, I do wonder if the questions and considerations below have been addressed.

Continue reading "Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

August 22, 2007

Material Support

Via Jim Henley, a wide-ranging interview with Nir Rosen on "Democracy Now". He covers the situation in Iraq, which is depressing but could hardly be surprising to anyone who's been following the news at all closely. There's some stuff about Nahr El Bared camp in Lebanon, the clash between Fatah al Islam and the Lebanese government – Rosen falls into the "Hariri's allies, if not Hariri himself, were supporting Fatah al Islam" school of analysis there.

But the thing that brought me up short was the discussion of Iraqi refugees' prospects for entry into the United States:

Continue reading "Material Support"

Posted by tomscud at 02:00 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 16, 2007

Iraq: Ahhh, the military is infiltrated by Shia...

I found this quite comical really: Andrew Sullivan takes cue from credulous Totten in noticing, aha, the Iraqi military is rather riddled with Shia militia members or sympathizers; although the bit about Mahdi Army being Iran's "major proxy in Iraq... in effect, the Iraqi branch of Hezbollah" is comical on the part of Totten.

Well in any case, watching the Americans blunder about with Iraq (and bloody hell, Iran) now is no doubt what it was like to watch Vietnam from afar, in the early 1970s. Already clearly lost, and already clearly a disaster... they try desperately to convince themselves something can be done. Responsibility and all that.

Continue reading "Iraq: Ahhh, the military is infiltrated by Shia..."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:39 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 13, 2007

A Cheney is only as strong as the weakest link

This American Enterprise Institute resident's expert comments, from circa 1994, are making the rounds, as well they should. Perhaps no one in the current Administration had encountered these thoughts, during the buildup to the Iraq invasion.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 31, 2007

Weapons for Everyone

As you might already have read, the United States has announced a massive arms package covering Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf countries. Guardian columnist Brian Whitaker, a Middle East expert, believes the deal is a bad idea, as it will inflame Sunni-Shia tensions throughout the region. While I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Whitaker, I must respectfully disagree with him and say I consider the deal a good idea overall.

Continue reading "Weapons for Everyone"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:36 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

June 12, 2007

Desperately Seeking Sudan: Key War on Terror Ally

This Baltimore Sun story is not too much of a surprise for those who connect the dots and are somewhat informed. "Sudan has secretly worked with the CIA to spy on the insurgency in Iraq . . . . The relationship underscores the complex realities of the post-Sept. 11 world, in which the United States has relied heavily on intelligence and military cooperation from countries, including Sudan and Uzbekistan, that are considered pariah states for their records on human rights. "

Now does anyone know of any Hariri connection?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:42 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 02, 2007

How Do You Say "Chutzpah" in Arabic?

The Department of Homeland Security, in a nod to the U.S.' long tradition of aiding those huddled masses who yearn to breathe free (or at least yearn to refrain from having their heads blown off), has announced that a whopping total of 60 Iraqis will shortly be admitted to the U.S. as refugees - but only if they pass the required security checks, of course.

Continue reading "How Do You Say "Chutzpah" in Arabic?"

Posted by evaluna at 12:00 PM | Comments (33) | TrackBack

May 12, 2007

Sheikh Up Shakes Up with a Shakedown

Counterinsurgency in Iraq's Anbar province has apparently neutralized some major al-Qaeda elements. Getting smarter, the US has enabled local sheikhs, and rather young ones, to reassert themselves. While this new Corleone-in-diapers is ambiguous on the US presence, one thing is clear. He's gonna collect his cash. The McClatchy Washington Bureau story is just one long "pay me" shakedown pitch.

Continue reading "Sheikh Up Shakes Up with a Shakedown"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 28, 2007

Maybe All is Not Lost in Translation

Apparently the U.S. Congress has taken notice that a grand total of fifty green cards per fiscal year was not going to meet the demand created by Iraqi and Afghan translators who have placed their lives in danger by serving as translators and interpreters for U.S. forces.

Continue reading "Maybe All is Not Lost in Translation"

Posted by evaluna at 12:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 06, 2007

My Inner Neocon & Iran's Shatt Across the Bow

No, I don't want us or Britain to go to war with Iran. Heck, I'm a "cut and runner" on Iraq from before it happened. But am I the only one not of neoconnish-hawkish outlook who is a little perturbed that uniformed professional British sailors and Marines, engaged in lawful patrolling and probable legitimate intelligencing, roll over and "confess"? (Side note to antiwar folks: the coalition presence is now lawful, regardless of other moral or prudential non-rectitude.) Civilians, I understand. Me, I'll give away your social security number when faced with a nail clipper. But what happened to stiff upper lip; name, rank and serial number? If they were tortured or threatened I won't judge, but at least I'd want to know. UPDATE: Rolling over does make a little more sense after these revelations of mock executions, etc..

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:49 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

March 29, 2007

The Madness of King George & The Terror of the Fearful Jacobin Republic

An anectdotal reflexion on recent MENA anti-American developments prompted by a somewhat amusing discussion with an American financial sector consulting friend of mine about his recent work in the Middle East and the "shocking" levels of anti-American sentiment as compared to only 3 or 4 years ago. This fellow, of a conservative East Coast background nevertheless has had enough of in region experience prior to the Right Bolshevik Coup to have seen the precipitious decline in American image in region (and elsewhere of course).

What I found interesting was his recitation of leading and very connected American educated financial sector (most of whom I know more or less well) figures whose views had shifted from pro-American to anti, reflecting various levels of frustration. What was most peculiar in this conversation was that I cannot recall a similarly structured one - that is veering off from business to American politics.

(apologies on the title, it is late, I have much work still to do, and much rhum drunk)
link fixed 30 March

Continue reading "The Madness of King George & The Terror of the Fearful Jacobin Republic"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

March 06, 2007

Iraq Oil Law Discussion

Somewhat tardily, but at reader request, a note on the new Iraqi oil law bill in cabinet, as reported in the FT.

My quick reaction: meaningless bollocks. My longer reaction, bloody idiotic meaningless bollocks just like the fucking schools painted and other such nonsense that only idiotic innocents with no fucking sense of fucking reality will get excited about. There are no economics to discuss. There is no way to model having your pipelines constantly cut and if you're in Kurd Land, the Kurds losing control of their production, a political threat of no small probability.

Reader reactions welcome.

[NB: corrected some idiotic early AM grammatical blunders, linking idiocies and the like-CL 7 march]

Continue reading "Iraq Oil Law Discussion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:19 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 14, 2007

Lost in Translation: U.S. Policy Toward Iraqi Translators and Interpreters

With an estimated 3.8 million Iraqis currently living as refugees, it’s not surprising that the U.S. might want to help by taking in a few hapless souls until Iraq stabilizes. So I wasn’t at all shocked to see that Washington has offered to provide refugee visa slots for its customary drop in the bucket. That’s right - 7,000 lucky Iraqis, or 0.18% of those who have fled during the current conflict alone, will be granted the opportunity to start over in the U.S. in the form of asylum.

Continue reading "Lost in Translation: U.S. Policy Toward Iraqi Translators and Interpreters"

Posted by evaluna at 11:03 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

January 26, 2007

"From Iraqi society to societies in Iraq" - Some further thoughts

I just published this article on Niqash, but since the guidelines of that project (it is financed by various European foreign offices & U.N. agencies) mandated a very balanced tone and - rightly so - doesn't allow for us editors to engage in conjecture and speculation (however informed & sound) ... I thought I should use Aqoul to (1) point to the article and (2) expand upon some themes.

(The article in question is also my last work for Niqash as the project has ended and there is no telling if there will be any follow-up. I am thus also looking around for "something new", as they say, so do feel free to contact me if you want to hire me.)

Update: Added a few links for further reading (Twice)

Continue reading ""From Iraqi society to societies in Iraq" - Some further thoughts"

Posted by MSK at 01:24 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

January 09, 2007

Wishful Thinking, Grasping at Straws, and Other Habits of Highly Effective Pundits

I know that taking Andrew Sullivan apart whenever he embarasses himself talking about Islam is old hat on this blog, but his recent post about the possible benefits of the Iraqi civil war for the war on terror deserves special mention. You see, by declaring victory and then leaving Iraqis to slaughter each other, we counter al-Qaeda's "West versus Islam" narrative with an "Islam versus Islam" narrative.

Continue reading "Wishful Thinking, Grasping at Straws, and Other Habits of Highly Effective Pundits"

Posted by homais at 02:05 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

January 07, 2007

Surge Protectors: Conference on Iraq Escalation

Senators McCain and Lieberman, and an apparently scary looking General Keane, explained and defended the new Iraq surge plan (2 years!) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the neoconservative cerberal cortex. This account by ChicagoDyke will amusingly explain it all to you. It is quite unnerving to realize that Monty Python's Inspector Leopard of the Yard's signature line "The same -- only more violent!" is the new thought-through policy of the powers-that-be. In any event, the conferees made it seem like we are just winning and winning. Elsewhere we learn that we are going to get Iraqis to paint schools. And clean streets. Because they are no good at security. No mention on whether they were going to also be paid to shine shoes. More below. (Via Henley, again.)

Continue reading "Surge Protectors: Conference on Iraq Escalation"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:03 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

January 05, 2007

Saddam Execution & Recent Events: A Moroccan Perspective

The casual reader of Tel Quel, a trendy francophone Moroccan weekly, or, to a lesser extent, of Le Journal hebdomadaire, might be forgiven for thinking that the average Moroccan is more interested in the depenalisation of cannabis, the right to convert to Southern Baptism or whether algebra will be taught in Tamazight than in events in the Middle East. One Tel Quel journalist wrote "Je n’aime pas le Hezbollah" ("I don't like Hezbollah"), thus showing how disconnected this magazine is from the broad strands of Moroccan public opinion - fiercely pro-Palestinian, pro-Hezbollah and anti-US.

Continue reading "Saddam Execution & Recent Events: A Moroccan Perspective"

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 05:10 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

January 02, 2007

Eid 'Em & Weep: Was Saddam's Death-Timing Sectarian?

Nir Rosen suggests that the timing of Saddam's death on the Sunni Eid was a sectarian message: as there are no lawful executions on Eid, therefore legally the true Iraqi Eid must be the Shiite one. Is there any merit to this implication, O informed readers? Was it clearly a gottersaddamerung message for the Sunni side of the street? A look and listen at the lynch-mobbish hanging of Saddam (sensitive readers, don't go there) suggests a very sectarian sendoff. Faithful Aqoulite MSK has helpfully made note in comments of one blog and one NY Times account.

Continue reading "Eid 'Em & Weep: Was Saddam's Death-Timing Sectarian?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

December 30, 2006

In Iraq, how can one tell Sunnis from Shi'ites by their names?

A few days ago, our colleague Jim Henley wrote the following post:

Iraqi Onomastics Bleg

You know what would be great? A handy internet reference that identifies common Iraqi given names as “Sunni,” “Shiite” or “Ambiguous.” We know that death squads shoot people for having the wrong name. And we know that anyone quoted in a media story is going to be situated in Iraq’s ethnic/sectarian conflict, whether he or she wants to be or not. It would be useful to be able to see a name and know the speaker’s religious identity.

Indeed, it would be neat for many in the West to have lists of Sunni and Shi'ite names handy. Alas, reality isn't so kind.

Continue reading "In Iraq, how can one tell Sunnis from Shi'ites by their names?"

Posted by MSK at 05:25 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

December 16, 2006

"Bomb-bomb-bomb / Bomb-bomb Iran" was cleverer

This heartwarming scene of US soldiers leading Iraqi kids in a sing-a-long (well, a chant-along) has enough irony to send O. Henry running back to prison (despite Wikipedia vandals apparently changing his name in the entry to Poop Face).

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:57 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

December 12, 2006

Iraq Budget Woes: Graft, Bureaucracy and Fiefdoms

Came across an article in the NYT reporting that Iraq's 27 ministries were spending as little as 15% of 2006 capital budget allocations for rebuilding. Salient points are highlighted below:

Among reasons for the problems — like a large turnover in government personnel — is a strange new one: bureaucrats are so fearful and confused by anticorruption measures put in place by the American and Iraqi governments that they are afraid to sign off on contracts...

American and Iraqi officials here are also saying that the stringent measures they had favored to slow the rampant corruption may be especially daunting for bureaucrats who have little experience with Western-style regulations and oversight. Those officials say that Iraqis who have seen their colleagues arrested and jailed in anticorruption sweeps are reluctant to put their own name on a contract.

A superficial reading of this article suggests an argument for more loosely regulated bureaucracy to speed up the disbursement of funds. That makes sense if one does not recall the USG CPA audit that revealed misappropriation of about $8.8 billion dollars. Unsurprisingly, the situation in Iraq makes a standard regs vs. no-regs debate a bit complicated.

Continue reading "Iraq Budget Woes: Graft, Bureaucracy and Fiefdoms"

Posted by eerie at 08:04 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 06, 2006

Iraq Study Group Report Released

Today the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group published its report that proposes a new course for the U.S. administration in Iraq, all neatly listed in 79 recommendations.

A pdf of the report can be downloaded here.

Having watched the one-hour news conference and read all 160 pages I am too bleary-eyed to write any detailed comments. In short, the report is very well done and - particularly against the backdrop of the past 5 years of U.S. policy towards Iraq and the Middle East as a whole - a remarkable document that everyone should read.

Now I'm waiting for the reaction from the White House.

Posted by raf* at 01:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 08, 2006

Rumsfeld Stepping Down

In the wake of popular dissatisfaction over the mishandling of Iraq (as shown in yesterday's elections), AP reports that Rumsfeld will be stepping down from his post as Secretary of Defense.

I'm sure members of our peanut gallery have opinions about potential shifts in US foreign policy now that Democrats have control of the House (and perhaps the Senate?). Feel free to yammer on and post links as things develop.

Posted by eerie at 01:04 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

November 02, 2006

CENTCOM briefing suggests impending chaos in Iraq

I don't normally do drive-by posts, but I found this slide strangely fascinating. It was published by the New York Times yesterday, along with an article describing factors and trends relating to stability and violence in Iraq.

Thoughts?

Posted by eerie at 12:20 PM | Comments (38) | TrackBack

October 28, 2006

On Iraq & Pre-War Predictions: What Do You Mean "We", Paleface?

Apologies to the old Lone Ranger joke. Clive Davis writes this lament of the disaster unfolding in Iraq. "It wasn't just the Bush team that made mistakes, of course. Didn't we all underestimate the challenge?" (emphasis added).

Ummm, no. That sentence may imply a whole new set of meanings for the words "we" and "all", hitherto unsuspected. Even my own neglected blog in early 2003 quoted this far-from-rare Jason Vest article from the (annoyingly) lefty mag The Nation that got it right. That article (and even little old me) were among so many others -- from every walk of life, punditry, as well as civilian and military industry, large and small -- who loudly forsaw everything, more or less. Not to mention our very own Aqoul curmudgeon. To the time machine!

Continue reading "On Iraq & Pre-War Predictions: What Do You Mean "We", Paleface?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:03 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

October 17, 2006

Iraq the Mortal: Lancet reports 800 gazillion slain

I'll probably update or followup as time permits (have updated now after the break), but we should note the recent study issued by The Lancet, which alleges some absurd figure for Iraqi deaths from coalition and other violence post-US invasion -- a followup to their earlier study (see below for link to abstract), which at least had a broad enough confidence interval to fig leaf the foolishness. When I begged my government in 2002-3 not to enter this stupid war and occupation with all the cruelty and foolishness it would entail, I neglected to leave out the fact that it would perpetuate mass gulllibility among those who think "Bush & Co." is Hitler, and that any accusation should stick. And those, like the media, who think peer-reviewed medical literature is face-value gospel. Thankfully, a responsible and serious set of critics of the invasion/occupation/budding civil war, the Iraq Body Count, who actually ask critical questions and document the same matters in real time, has issued a serious commentary listing enough red flags about the Lancet study to decorate a communist banquet.

Continue reading "Iraq the Mortal: Lancet reports 800 gazillion slain"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:29 PM | Comments (27) | TrackBack

June 28, 2006

Putin Issues Hit on Diplomat Murderers in Iraq

Russian President Vladimir Putin is quite steamed at the moment over the recent murders of four Russian diplomats in Iraq, apparently committed in retaliation for Moscow’s behavior in Chechnya. In a further geographic expansion of his Chechen campaign, he has vowed to have Russian Special Forces knock off the diplomats’ killers , who had demanded that Russia withdraw from Chechnya. Some think Putin is but full of sound and fury on this one, but they may be forgetting his KGB past.

Iraqi sovereignty be damned, apparently - but then circumstantial evidence suggests that if Putin follows through, it wouldn’t be the first time that Russian nationals acted in their official capacity to violate a Middle Eastern country’s sovereignty in order to settle a Chechen separatist score.

Continue reading "Putin Issues Hit on Diplomat Murderers in Iraq"

Posted by evaluna at 10:58 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

May 29, 2006

On Iraq, Dinars & Informed Comment: Some Reflexions

Due to some misunderstanding, I thought I would make a follow-up comment on a semi-private email exchange on Iraq

The context then: I wrote Professor Cole of Informed Comment regarding a relatively tangential statement there regarding Iraqi dinars, monetary policy and some statement by Amer Taheri regarding the stability of the currency. Cole withdrew his original characterisation re Taheri, but then followed up with further comment, mentioning yours truly in both. Given the excuse, I thought I should correct some misapprehensions, as well as abusively ramble on, these being my core competencies, about currency valuation, Iraq and the like, perhaps secondarily some gratuitous abuse of various parties for my own personal entertainment.

Continue reading "On Iraq, Dinars & Informed Comment: Some Reflexions"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:21 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

May 23, 2006

Cole - Economic Illiteracy [Updated]

I ran across a piece of illiteracy on Juan Cole's blog that bears correcting. :

Taheri's standards of reasoning and evidence have recently been slipping. In a recent article on Iraq, he gave as good news the stability of the Iraqi dinar. But in fact the dinar is artificially pegged to the dollar. Its "stability" is the same "stability" that the Egyptian guinea used to have in the 1960s and 1970s when the government just arbitrarily set its exchange rate. When you do that, you get some apparent stability, but you also create a black market and a preference in the country for other currencies. If the Iraqi dinar was allowed to float, it would not be worth very much.

Contra Cole's statement, which I find bizarre and puzzling (and tending to support his critics that his hatred of the Bush Admin is pushing him into the realm of unanchored opposition. A pity as whatever his tediously predictable and stereotypical Left politics, his ability to comment on Sunni-Shia politics in Iraq is rare and valuable. It would be good also if he learned to keep his trap shut about all things economic, as his understanding is embarassingly superficial, even for a Lefist academic in social sciences).

[NDLR: I would be extremely remiss not to note that I sent the Professor a note on the side regarding the very subject of this post, and he very graciously accepted correction. Given the rather poor record of blogs as a general matter on the issue of correction, and the rather nasty (and usually overdone axe-grinding) attacks on the man by his ideological foes, I think I should note this. It's a pleasure to see (although it deflates me cranky 'beat him about the head' post on the matter, so I preserve the record and leave it to readers to flog me if necessary for being unduly negative)]

Continue reading "Cole - Economic Illiteracy [Updated]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 19, 2006

Friedman's Iraq Predictions Gone Flat

Glad he's no obstetrician. For three years now, Tom "Flat Earth" Friedman has been declaring a six-month due date for Iraq to give birth to its definitive fate. Courtesy of our commenter, alle, we learn of this new release from lefty media critics FAIR, wherein they track these continuous past and present six-month-or-so predictions for Iraq's Decisive Moment. Samples:

Continue reading "Friedman's Iraq Predictions Gone Flat"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:01 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

May 18, 2006

The Lighter Side of Civilizational Warfare

Check out Lazy Ramadi, IED Production's Liberation rap.

You thinkin' what I'm thinkin'/ Insurgency, man it's happenin'...It's all about the plastic cards, Cletus/Throw the stash in the bag/And head out like a fetus.../But there's no need to moan/'Cause the US Army won't let me go home

Poached from Henley, as usual.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:27 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

April 11, 2006

Baghdad Market: Canaries, Whores and Pimps

There remains something intriguing about the Baghdad exchange. At least for me, having worked through multiple incompleted deals whose ultimate consumation would take place on the Baghdad. An overview of the Exchange 3 years on, when (were it not for the festering and criminal incompetence of the US Administration in all its empty, idiotic posturing) we should have been reading of some contented Iraqis.

Continue reading "Baghdad Market: Canaries, Whores and Pimps"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:46 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 07, 2006

Atlanta's Safe, Miss Scarlett, Just 'The MSM' Talkin'

Ok, fellow "moonbats", all together now, as we've been corrected: there is no civil war going on in Iraq. There, feel better? Surely these people don't. Especially horrid Najaf shrine slaughter a short time ago by 3 suicide bombers.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:30 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

February 28, 2006

Polls Apart: Iraq-Deployed US Troops Queried

LeMoyne College and Zogby International have performed a poll of US soldiers in Iraq. Among the just-released findings, a majority favor near total withdrawal in a short or immediate period (within the next year). Also:

Nearly nine of every 10 - 85% - said the U.S. mission is "to retaliate for Saddam's role in the 9-11 attacks," while 77% said they believe the main or a major reason for the war was "to stop Saddam from protecting al Qaeda in Iraq."

Note: I'm not making this up.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:37 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 23, 2006

Iraq the . . . What? Post-Bombing Reports

The following collage of commentary from an on-scene blog is unremarkable in light of general news reports of tragedy after the Golden Mosque bombing in Iraq. Except the name of the blog is just getting too much for my irony meter.

As if we didn't have enough problems already! . . . The quality of the target and the timing of the attack were chosen in a way that can possibly bring very serious consequences over the country. . . The situation in Baghdad is so tense now, . . . Things look scary here . . . I hope there won't be more updates to report. . . I can't see a positive thing coming out of this. . . . I don't want to even think of what can happen if this situation lasts longer than this. . . . Radio Sawa reported a short while ago that the central morgue in Baghdad received some 80 bodies of people who were killed with gun shots since Wednesday afternoon.

Yes, that's from Iraq...The Model?! Name change suggestions, anyone? Meanwhile, I'd hate to see what "Iraq, The Clusterf**k" is reporting.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:12 PM | Comments (30) | TrackBack

February 16, 2006

Propaganda, Iraq and Gaming - and Future Funds

Sadly I can not comment on this, other than to share the story and note that it confirms my observation months back that the Lincoln Group story was not a dark 'Neo Con' tale but one of dilletantes.

Quick Rise for Purveyors of Propaganda in Iraq

It is of course illustrative of the general problem with the Bush Administration's efforts in Iraq and MENA. Clumsy cronyism with amateurish dilletantes. A bit of cronyism here and there will happen. Human beings are human. The sins of the Bush Administration lie in their lack of competence in executing even cronyism, not as the simple minded Left would have it, in dark Right wing plots. A pity, I would enjoy a competent if unpleasant US government in world affaires. An incompetent, bumbling, often cretinously self-deluded US Government makes me life harder, and I don't enjoy that.

At least I can add that the Fund for the Future, that much vaunted initiative announced at the G8 meeting in Dubai is in fact a quietly dead letter for the moment. Ms Cheney got her panties all wet too soon. Perhaps the idea may get reworked to something vaguely rational.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:33 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

January 21, 2006

More Lurid Than Sex: Whither the Iraq Reconstruction Funds?

Rowan Scarborough of The Washington Times takes a look at the fate of missing billions in Iraq reconstruction funding, much of which, it appears, was handed out in cash. Not knowing the on-the-ground actors, I cannot comment on the account, but the losses to corruption seem likely, given the nature of governments in general, the region, and the kind of knowledge (biased and absent) about the region by those who wanted to run the place.

Finding out what happened to Iraq's $37 billion in oil-financed reconstruction funds -- its stacks of plastic-wrapped hundred-dollar bills popping up all over the country like play money -- has taken investigators down many paths, including one to the Defense Ministry office of Ziyad al Qattan. Questions about what happened to the fund, once held by the United Nations and turned over to the Bush administration, are part of a broader story of how the United States has spent billions in American and Iraqi money after Saddam Hussein was ousted in April 2003.

Continue reading "More Lurid Than Sex: Whither the Iraq Reconstruction Funds?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:45 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

January 16, 2006

USAID on Iraq

An important little article from The Washington Post:

USAID Paper Details Security Crisis in Iraq
By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, January 17, 2006; Page A13

Will comment further later.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 15, 2006

Iraq, Reconstruction, never learning lessons

Seen on The Washington Post:

Rice's Rebuilding Plan Hits Snags
Pentagon and Foggy Bottom Debate Funding, Staffing of Teams

While allowing the issue of limited resources on the part of the military and legit concerns about footprint, I did find this turn of phrase disappointing: defense officials are reluctant to take on new or expanded assignments, particularly those seen by some as having more to do with reconstruction than combating terrorism. The false dichotomy and the issue of the failed state rather bothers.

Now, as to the concept... well who knows? Getting staffing is going to be a problem, and the legit question as to the efficacity of creating little Green Zones hither and thither.

However, all this reminds me of the infuriating rotted pissing on when I tried to work with US Gov fools on creating financing vehicles for Iraqi sub-contractors (I do repeat I was always pleased with the realism of the on-the-ground State and related people, those with real emerging markets experience - at the same time the DoD fools and their ideological hangers-on with no sense of economics or business in emerging markets did not).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 12, 2006

US Military, Cultural Blindness, and Iraq Failure [Updated 12 January 2006: excellent FT expansion]

This article seems to have attracted little attention, for all that it has some amusing observations as well as indicative responses from US Mil: Briton criticises US Army for cultural ignorance, moralistic self-righteousness, unproductive micromanagement, unwarrented optimism - in short, very typically American "can do" self delusion that typified across the board failure by CPA-Iraq.

However, backward looking is less important than forward. Forward is the US Army/US DoD/US Mil reaction to what I found to be well-placed criticism I heard (differently framed) from my US Mil amigos. Not for dislike of their troopies, in frustration of the lack of prepration of said troopies for the real problems - inability to pull out of the entrenched frameworks. I wrote early on that I feared this. Sadly, it came out as I thought.

Update: The Financial Times as a somewhat better article on the underlying article (which I have now skimmed in its original):

British officer blisters US Army in Iraq critique
By Reuters
Published: January 12 2006 09:15

While largely of the same thrust, it does add a few more easily accessible comments which I will add below.

Continue reading "US Military, Cultural Blindness, and Iraq Failure [Updated 12 January 2006: excellent FT expansion]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:34 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

January 10, 2006

Kidnapped Reporter in Iraq: More Questions than Answers

The kidnapping of Christian Science Monitor reporter Jill Carroll presents many questions. (One can also deride her risk-raking but it was not of the foolish kind that did not know or understand the risks.) Several issues, some inane sadly, pop to mind, from things as far ranging as torture to the fact that it is the American/Western sufferers who get all the attention while Iraqis suffer fear, hardship, kidnapping and worse in uncontemplated anonymity everyday. Note the author of this linked article on that subject.

Inane and serious thoughts to follow.

Continue reading "Kidnapped Reporter in Iraq: More Questions than Answers"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:49 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

January 09, 2006

Bremer Speaks on Iraq: The Buck Stops Over There Somewhere

The Guardian reports that "Paul Bremer, who led the US civilian occupation authority in Iraq after the 2003 invasion, has admitted that the Americans 'didn't really see' the threat coming from insurgents in the country." Shoot, I did, and I'm an American; and so did lots of others. Meanwhile, "he also criticised President George Bush and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, saying they had not listened to his concerns about the quality of Iraq's army, and that ultimately the White House bore responsibility for decisions that had led to the current violence."

I leave it to those with better inside and up close knowledge, some of whom are not far from this very blogspace, to evaluate the rest.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:56 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

January 03, 2006

Odd the Silence: Iraq and the End of Reconstruction [added thought]

Wandering around online I found it strange, peculiar, startling the silence with respect to the End of Reconstruction in Iraq.

Given the confident crowing on the Right in the US of A about Iraq being rebuilt into a bright shiny new Germany, shining new example to the Arab and Islamic Worlds, example of Bush's great vision, etc. ad nauseum (we should not neglect the incoherent flailing and whinging on the part of the Left in the US of A, which is so fundamentally schizophrenically incompetent as to be almost amusing), I would have thought The Washington Post's small note on the apparent abandonment of reconstruction would have provoked some small commentary here and there.

Instead, there seems to be a general silence.

Perhaps I have missed something, but I do have to suspect there is a bit of mumble and shuffle on with respect to both sides.

Continue reading "Odd the Silence: Iraq and the End of Reconstruction [added thought]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:49 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

January 02, 2006

Iraq, some other observations on Left incoherence and sensless whinging on like stupid morons

As I am in a fine mood, given I am refusing today to take any narcotics at all, so I can fully savour the Chemotherapy experience, I thought I might rant on about another bit of senseless whinging on from the Know Nothing Whinging Git Left (this opposed to the Know Nothing Whinging Self Deluded Right), that with respect to the oil price subsidies being reduced in Iraq.

You can see this comment on Juan Cole's site with respect to 'IMF doctrinaire' polices, a piece of utter economic illiteracy rather typical of Cole and his coteria (they should stay away from economic commment).

There is, of course, nothing "doctrinaire" about the IMF urging the Iraqi government to stop pissing away badly needed millions on an utterly mad, wasteful and stunningly corrupted subsidy regime that is largely aiding oil smugglers (ah, what is the hard working oil smuggler to do without a good subsidy). Anyone with the slightest lick of sense should understand the gas price subsidies are mad, wasteful and doing nothing but enriching the mafias while contributing to chronic shortages. But no, for the drooling idiot Left, the IMF Big Baddies must be wrong.....

Lobotomised cretins, the lot of them. No wonder the Bush Admin mopped them up, despite the same Administration's chronic incompetence. The lot of the both are cretins.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:49 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Walking Away: "We never intended to completely rebuild Iraq"

A fine article in The Washington Post mildly amused me, although also saddened (more for the personal reasons):

U.S. Has End in Sight on Iraq Rebuilding
Documents Show Much of the Funding Diverted to Security, Justice System and Hussein Inquiry
By Ellen Knickmeyer
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, January 2, 2006; Page A01

The core observations:

The Bush administration does not intend to seek any new funds for Iraq reconstruction in the budget request going before Congress in February, officials say. The decision signals the winding down of an $18.4 billion U.S. rebuilding effort in which roughly half of the money was eaten away by the insurgency, a buildup of Iraq's criminal justice system and the investigation and trial of Saddam Hussein.

Continue reading "Walking Away: "We never intended to completely rebuild Iraq""

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:57 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

December 20, 2005

On Iraq, Elections, Spying and US Media Coverage

Being back in the land of tubby supersized people is reminding me what completely atrocious news coverage is available in the US broadcast media. The shrieking exageration that seems to be the baseline for any and all stories is painful to watch.

Truly painful. It doesn't seem particularly ideologically focused, despite the endless whinging I have read online in blogs and the like (which one may take, including I may add this one as mere navel gazing, and the pretension among some in the "blogosphere" that they are bringing new standards is absurd and laughable... although given broadcast media in the US of A....). Rather, it strikes me as simply bad professional practice.

Continue reading "On Iraq, Elections, Spying and US Media Coverage"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:26 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 13, 2005

Joseph Nye the PR Guy: "Soft Power" in Iraq

Just saw Joseph Nye speak on the subject of “Can Democracy Defeat Terrorism?”, a talk which ended up being mostly about Iraq and what U.S. policy should be in that neck of the woods. "Soft power" is his term for what in other fields of endeavor is sometimes called “hearts and minds,” or maybe “public relations”- the idea that convincing people of the merit of your position by diplomatic means is more effective than doing so by force, and at a lower cost.

Continue reading "Joseph Nye the PR Guy: "Soft Power" in Iraq"

Posted by evaluna at 11:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

December 08, 2005

People who "objectively" blog on news/politics should better be careful with their assertions

I do read Nur al-Cubicle's blog on a regular basis. She (I THINK it's a "she" - but maybe I let the fact that "Nur" is a female Arabic name mislead me) is providing an invaluable service to all those of us who either cannot read French/Spanish/Italian or just don't feel like slugging through all the newspapers ...

But I find some of her slants to be cheap, petty, & based on ideological assumptions as opposed to solid reasoning. And what is worse - while in being cheap & petty she is merely putting herself onto the same intellectual level as the rightwing assholes against whom she is trying to write - by letting her emotion-based ideology getting the better of her careful reasoning she is giving them ample ammunition to invalidate ANYthing that she says, just like Cindy Sheehan's antics have done a grave disservice to all those involved in bringing the number of casualties in Iraq to the forefront of public awareness in the U.S.

Continue reading "People who "objectively" blog on news/politics should better be careful with their assertions"

Posted by raf* at 05:39 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

December 03, 2005

Torture, U.S. Foreign Policy, and International Law: The Truth Can Sting

I had the opportunity this week to hear John Yoo, the author of the infamous U.S. Justice Department torture memo speak in justification of physical mistreatment of alleged Al-Qaeda operatives because they are ostensibly not protected by the Geneva Conventions, debate a prominent human rights law expert on the legality of this practice under U.S. and international law. (Disclosure: I’ve known Doug Cassel professionally for years, and in a prior life was privileged to provide interpretation services for his expert testimony in political asylum cases.) This memo has been used by the Bush administration to justify interrogation methods which any normal person with morals would agree constitute mistreatment of alleged Al-Qaeda detainees in Afghanistan and Guantánamo.

Continue reading "Torture, U.S. Foreign Policy, and International Law: The Truth Can Sting"

Posted by evaluna at 10:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

November 30, 2005

Propaganda

Clearly it seems as though the Pentagon isn't confident about winning the war of ideas in open competition. After revelations on purported plans to bomb Al Jazeera, we now have the American military "secretly paying Iraqi newspapers to publish stories written by U.S. troops in an effort to burnish the image of the U.S. mission in Iraq." The Americans aren't short of financial resources or technology. So one must presume their handling of the situation on the ground is pretty miserable if they've come to the point where not only do their achievements not speak for themselves, but nobody is willing to listen when they do speak in their own name (see Al Hurra).

Posted by dubaiwalla at 05:49 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

Iraq Kidnappings and Unproductive Newspeak

Pardons begged if this is not as bleeding heart a post as people associate with ones related to kidnappings and murders in Iraq. The reporting in the United Kingdom has been infuriatingly sensationalistic and interspersed with such media speak and irrelevant pathos inspiring information that there seems to be a separate universe of reporting parallel to that in which the real world exists.

Continue reading "Iraq Kidnappings and Unproductive Newspeak"

Posted by Meph at 12:15 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

November 23, 2005

Iraq, a quick set of refs to return to

And finally with dwindling lucidity, another fine article from Mr. Ignatius in The Washington Post on the recent Iraqi parties conference.

In Cairo, Clarity on Iraq, which gives almost a glimmer of hope.

I also draw attention to the al Hayat article, مؤتمر القاهرة: مخرج لانسحاب اميركي وتوافق على «شرعية المقاومة» ونبذ «الارهاب»
القاهرة , طهران - مشرف عباس الحياة - 22/11/05 which is worthy of a read as well.

I may add commentary later, but the essentials here are there may be an outside chance at a core consensus, on the basis of the Americans promising to fuck off in the foreseeable but not immediate future. My opinion, whatever it takes, mates, whatever it goddamned takes.

I rather think this is a likely still birth, but not to be dismissed either.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 20, 2005

Surfacing on Iraq

Having begun this weekend with some fine work on valuation documents for Gulf area firms, a little bit of coughing up blood, and the tedious work of creating a matrix to figure out what the bloody hell I have among pile of bloody Arabic financial reporting, I thought I might take a moment to comment on the chatter about Iraq and the US policy optoins.

Frankly, most of the discussion rather strikes me as surreal navel gazing delusionally disconnected from the evident reality in Iraq.

As I have been indicating for a rather long time, Iraq long ago (say early 2004) entered into a 'Lebanese logic' which rather made the creeping civil war situation in Iraq, that is clear for anyone with eye to see, inevitable.

Now, the simple minded I suppose expect(ed) this to explode all at once. It has not and will not. Rather, as in Lebanon, it will creep forward in fits and starts until it is undeniably there for even the most deluded. The self segregation, the inter-community killings and hardening of lines despite decades of friendship, etc., that is already ongoing and there is frankly nothing substantial in terms of Iraqi dynamics counter-weighing this. Iraqi dynamics are all that count, not Americans running around claiming idiotic body counts, not hand waving pseudo-political excercises masquerading as democracy to please the gullible Westerners who think such things have meaning in such circumstances, not anything but Iraqi social dynamics.

There is, in short, nothing that is substantively running against the power dynamic of the hard men with guns. Nothing, period, regardless of the idiotic self-deluded happy talk I have seen now for three fucking years running. Good news from Iraq, indeed. Even in the depths of any civil war one can find "good news" - it's intelligent analysis that gets one understanding.

Continue reading "Surfacing on Iraq"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:37 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

October 22, 2005

"Not the kind of state the coalition had hoped to create"

Prospect magazine has a very interesting article by Rory Stewart, a former governing deputy for the UK in two southern Iraqi provinces. He discusses in considerable detail the different Shi'ite political parties (and their associated militias) and the ways in which they have held used their power in the South, before concluding:

The new order in southern Iraq is, in short, hard to define. It is an improvement on the political exclusion and sadistic inhumanity of Saddam and has a great deal to teach the Sunni areas about prosperity, security and politics. But it is also reactionary, violent, intolerant towards women and religious minorities and uncooperative with the coalition. The new leaders have dark histories and dubious allies; they enforce a narrow social code and ignore the rural areas.

Continue reading ""Not the kind of state the coalition had hoped to create""

Posted by tomscud at 06:46 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

October 19, 2005

Iraq: Lowered Expectations

I’ll be honest with you, nobody around here wants to write about Iraq. Sure, the country has the trappings of democracy: political parties, elections and a draft constitution that may soon be ratified by popular referendum. It's certainly useful to ramble on about these "accomplishments" when uncomfortable questions about troop withdrawals come up, but do they really reflect democratic development? What do a bunch of purple fingers mean in the face of growing insurgency, ethnic/sectarian attempts to maximize factional interests, a constitution that favors federalism and obvious signs that religious conservatives are now a dominant political force?

There are a good number of governments that do not represent citizens or uphold individual rights in spite of their constitutions, referenda, elections and political parties (Miss Mabrouk has a nice summary of Egypt's election shenanigans). Just because Iraqis have gone to the polls a few times doesn’t mean they have a functioning democracy or even a self-sustaining government, for that matter. Iraq’s financial situation (or put another way, its utter dependence on the US taxpayer) is a useful example of non-viability. FT notes that the Iraqi government’s reliance on US assistance has resulted in a disincentive to curb its own expenditures:

Some US officials are also arguing that the US has to start disengaging from its role as Iraq's economic prop. This push has alarmed defence contractors, which are lobbying against such a move.

The $10bn (€8.3bn, £5.7bn) of US taxpayers' money spent so far on economic reconstruction has had limited effect, officials and analysts say, in part because of the insurgency and high insurance costs. The aid also serves to discourage the Iraqi government from making tough decisions, such as cutting back food and fuel subsidies that consume close to 40 per cent of their budget, which is projected to run a $6bn deficit.

Continue reading "Iraq: Lowered Expectations"

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October 03, 2005

Iraqi Oil Minister: Not Dead Yet

This morning we had the fine news that the Iraqi Oil Minister most unsportingly was not blown up, despire the increasingly sincere attempts on the part of the Sunni Arab factions. "I'm not dead yet" as he might say.

See: FT article: Iraq oil minister survives bomb attack - October 3 2005, 08:42 (Reuters)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:20 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

September 28, 2005

Big Media Catches On: Images of Iraqi Carnage Exchanged For Porn

Well, seems like the BBC, FT and others finally noticed that website where photos of dead Iraqis were posted in exchange for access to amateur porn.

We mentioned it on August 21, after Nur al-Cubicle's commentary popped up on the 'Aqoul feed aggregator.

I really can't think of a more abhorrent combination for Arab sensibilities. Has it hit the sats yet?

Posted by eerie at 02:51 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

September 18, 2005

Shadid on Iraq: A Contained Civil War?

Anthony Shadid's new book is out, and on TPM Cafe he gives a series of blog entries related to its content on Iraq. Here is one observation, of many, and I would solicit the Aqoul Brains Trust to give us a view of its accuracy and military-geographic-demographic rationale:

On the question of civil war, I don't see a lot of forces working against its intensification. To be honest, there are few national voices in Iraq these days. Ayad Allawi could be suggested as one, but I don't see him playing too great a role right now. Oddly, Muqtada Sadr is probably the figure who most plays up a nationalist discourse. That's in addition to his brand of sometimes messianic, populist religion. Beyond that, it is remarkable the degree to which politics are pronounced in communal terms. If a civil war worsened, I don't necessary see a conflagration. I think you could have an ostensible government in Baghdad, with ministries and embassies around it. In the hinterland, you could have militias staking out turf: Badr, Sadr and so on vying for influence in parts of Baghdad and the south, elements of the insurgency laying claims to land in the west and center, the Kurdish parties competing in the north, with varying degrees of intensity. Their points of intersection would be explosive, though not necessarily numerous.

I suspect he is mostly correct, though I do question whether parts of Baghdad are aptly described as "hinterland".

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:14 PM | Comments (21) | TrackBack

August 31, 2005

The Bridge Stampede: Iraq, Chaos and Security

The deadly accident today in Iraq, where several hundreds (and indeed perhaps near a thousand) pilgrims were killed in a stampede over a bridge over the Tigris calls for some reflexion and comment. (See The Financial Times Up to 700 Iraqis feared dead in bridge stampede

Well nigh a thousand dead. Certainly it is rightly the prime lead on the Arab Sats (excuding CNBC which weirdly is trying to reproduce American dot com day-trader obsessiveness over the Saudi stock market) and the tragedy, the sheer pathos of the event - a stampede based on a false (or who knows, perhaps not....) rumour of a suicide bomber that ends up killing far more than any single suicide bomber (ex of course a truck or car bomber) might.

(As an aside, does that ridiculous Fox News call these Iraqi/Arab on Iraqi bombers 'homocide bombers' in its continued flaunting of absolute illiteracy?)

Continue reading "The Bridge Stampede: Iraq, Chaos and Security"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:54 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 29, 2005

Iraq: Lessons from History

Wilson was a confident and bullish colonial official who was wrestling with a serious dilemma. How, under intense international scrutiny, could he control a well-armed society that had become increasingly resentful about the occupation of their country? Wilson himself never found satisfactory answers to this question. On July 2, 1920, a revolt, or thawna, broke out along the lower Euphrates. Fueled by a population resentful at the heavy-handed approach of the occupying forces, the rebellion quickly spread across the south and center of the country. Faced with as many as 131,000 armed opponents, the British army did not regain full control until six months later in February 1921. The cost in lives and money of the revolt made the continued occupation of Iraq very unpopular with British public opinion. It also cost Wilson his job. From 1921 onward the British continually strove to cut the costs of their presence in Iraq. Ultimately the decision was made to extricate themselves from he country as quickly as possible. The result was a failure to build a liberal or even a stable state in Iraq. (Toby Dodge - Inventing Iraq)

This passage gets creepier every time I read it. I’ve mentioned Toby Dodge’s book before, partly for historical value and partly as a cautionary tale for people who can’t grasp the complexities associated with “remaking” a region. The reason I am flogging this dead horse yet again is a recent Washington Post article about the US struggle to foster a liberal democracy in the face of strong ethnic and sectarian pressures:

Continue reading "Iraq: Lessons from History"

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August 24, 2005

Aqaba, some moderately ignored items

Oddly the Aqaba attack, no doubt to the sheer pitifulness of our fine rocketeers' aim (really no respect for the craft of rocketing these days), seems to have generated relatively little attention.

Yes, the usual bleating about terror this and that in the usual places, a rather typical and in my mind largely posturing claim on behelf of Zarqaouie via the internet.... but little attention to the idea of Aqaba as the first Iraq spillover event (although one might suggest the truck bomb "chemical threat" thing of last year which I very much enjoyed personally (emptied out my fav places in Amman, great seating to be had) was something of a spillover.

Pity, it should have been a point of heated speculation.

Continue reading "Aqaba, some moderately ignored items"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 22, 2005

Cole - Analysis of What to Do with Iraq

A bit pressed for time, so let me share this excellent piece from Juan Cole on Iraq. I am not sure I entirely agree, but I think his thinking and analysis is about as clear and grounded as one can get. Not defeatism, not simple minded self deception either.

Ten Things Congress Could Demand from Bush on Iraq

This is why one should read Cole even though he tends to the annoying Left when commenting on economics and the like.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:21 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 21, 2005

Military depravity

Nur al-Cubicle writes about a website that surpasses any definition of obscenity and inhumanity.

www.nowthatsf**kedup.com basically offers free access to its pornographic content in exchange for graphic pictures of war and bloodshed:

"If you are a US soldier deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan or any other theatre of war and you would like free access to the site, upload the photos which you and your buddies took during your service."

According to Nur, the discovery was first reported by an Italian blogger and the story has been carried by the Italian press agency ANSA:

"Browsing through the posts is like a descent into hell. Each post contains the most graphic of images, escalating in barbarity and viciousness and accentuated by the comments left by posters. The posts exalt the violence of the images, shot in a theatre of war. You see headless, armless burnt bodies, a face in a bowl, the remains of suicide bombers, an arm or a leg accompanied by inhuman comments, extolling the horrors..."the only good Iraqi is a dead Iraqi." The comments are stupefying in their cynicism...there is even a barbaric quiz, asking the question, "what body part is this"...?"

It's likely that a site like this will get taken down, for proof Aqoul has saved screenshots but will not be posting them.

Posted by secretdubai at 05:08 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 20, 2005

What Next in Iraq

Ted Barlow at Crooked Timber discusses what can be done about the situation in Iraq:

Orin Kerr recently proposed a useful simplified framework of possible outcomes in Iraq:

1. The U.S. beats back the insurgency and democracy flowers in Iraq (call this the “optimistic stay” scenario),
2. The U.S. digs in its heels, spends years fighting the insurgency, loses lots of troops, and years later withdraws, leading to a bloody and disastrous civil war (the “pessimistic stay” scenario);
3. The U.S. decides that it’s no longer worth it to stay in Iraq, pulls out relatively soon, and things in Iraq are about as best as you could hope for, perhaps leading to a decent amount of democracy (optimistic leave), and
4. The U.S. decides that it’s no longer worth it to stay in Iraq, pulls out soon, and plunges Iraq into a bloody and disastrous civil war with the bad guys assuming control eventually (pessimistic leave).

Speaking only for myself, I’m entirely confident that we could achieve outcome 4, believe that staying the course will continue to lead to outcome 2, and can scarcely imagine outcome 3. What about outcome 1? Is it achievable?

...

There’s a well-known prayer that asks for the courage to change the things that can be changed, the serenity to accept the things that cannot, and the wisdom to know the difference. I find myself short on all three.

I believe that Greg is right about the consequences of letting Iraq collapse into civil war. It’s terrible to contemplate. A civil war or a failed state could lead to tens of thousands of deaths, maybe more. It would be a moral travesty and a terrorist breeding ground. It would make a mockery of the goal, however idealistic, of transforming a bloody dictatorship into a stable, democratic, normal country. “Serenity” hardly seems like the appropriate response. When I look at the situation through the eyes of an idealistic war supporter, some of the vitriol is easier to understand; they’re appalled at war opponents who would abandon the people of Iraq to this fate.

So it seems unthinkable to declare victory and come home. Having said that, “what we must do” has to be constrained by “what we can do.” Imagine a village living in the shadow of a live volcano. Serenity is not an appropriate response to the threat of an eruption, but neither is a program of virgin sacrifice.

There's more, and links to much more, and a good discussion in the comments section.

Posted by tomscud at 07:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 19, 2005

Annoying grey ships at Aqaba piss me off: Shall Fire rockets at them. (US ships attacked) - updated

Well, this news in the AM bemused me:

Missile Fired at U.S. Navy Ship in Jordan

It reports two missiles (in fact, it appears mortars, not quite the same thing, Mr. Halaby, or perhaps Katyusha rockets..... well something explosive in any case) were fired at US warships at Aqaba harbor.

[update: 17h00 GMT below]

Suppose this will do wonders for tourism. Might clear out the harbor though, reduce the backlog.

Continue reading "Annoying grey ships at Aqaba piss me off: Shall Fire rockets at them. (US ships attacked) - updated"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 14, 2005

But do they really mean it...? Or get it? This time?

From the Washington Post:

"What we expected to achieve was never realistic given the timetable or what unfolded on the ground," said a senior official involved in policy since the 2003 invasion. "We are in a process of absorbing the factors of the situation we're in and shedding the unreality that dominated at the beginning.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:20 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 09, 2005

Iraq - Reconstruction - Knowing when to get out of the way

This article from The Washington Post (Op Ed actually) struck me as if not important a useful point of reflection for a moment:
Less Is More in Iraq
By Michael Rubin
Tuesday, August 9, 2005; Page A17

Let us leave aside Rubin's sketchy history in regards to Iraq as part of what one might properly and non-abusively call a "Neo Conservative" circle in Washington re Iraq (and his direct and personal contribution to the fiasco via his work with CPA-Iraq). Let us leave aside as well the question of whether a US draw down of troops is a good or bad thing (I might argue either way on any given day). Rather, merely look at the question of the US contractor presence.

Continue reading "Iraq - Reconstruction - Knowing when to get out of the way"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:50 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 04, 2005

British MP George Galloway praises Iraq 'martyrs'

From BBC article:

"It can be said, truly said, that the Iraqi resistance is not just defending Iraq. They are defending all the Arabs and they are defending all the people of the world against American hegemony."

He told Syrian Television: "Two of your beautiful daughters are in the hands of foreigners - Jerusalem and Baghdad.

"The foreigners are doing to your daughters as they will.

"The daughters are crying for help and the Arab world is silent. And some of them are collaborating with the rape of these two beautiful Arab daughters."

Even as someone who is generally sympathetic to Arab causes and who thought going into Iraq was a bad idea, I really have to wonder sometimes which planet this man has come from, and how he convinced his constituency to elect him to Parliament.

If the insurgency in Iraq is being run by groups as disparate as Al Qaeda and former Baathists, what would happen if America were to withdraw? Would the insurgents start fighting among themselves? Do they agree on anything besides from their short-term goal of ridding Iraq of American troops? Is Bush right when he says they have no productive goals, and only want to intimidate people?

Posted by dubaiwalla at 02:14 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

July 26, 2005

The Lounsbury Return: Iraq & Civil War

I'm back from a bloody long trip and quite beat. Regardless, a quick note to draw attention (via Juan Cole) to a New York Times article, cited at the billmon blog, discussing the new emergence of open discussion of the emerging civil war in Iraq. As longtime Lounsbury readers know, I called the "entry into the Lebanese logic" a year or so ago.

Continue reading "The Lounsbury Return: Iraq & Civil War"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:20 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

The Lounsbury Return: Iraq & Civil War

I'm back from a bloody long trip and quite beat. Regardless, a quick note to draw attention (via Juan Cole) to a New York Times article, cited at the billmon blog, discussing the new emergence of open discussion of the emerging civil war in Iraq. As longtime Lounsbury readers know, I called the "entry into the Lebanese logic" a year or so ago.

Continue reading "The Lounsbury Return: Iraq & Civil War"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:20 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

July 20, 2005

On Iraq: The Question of the Army-in-training

Juan Cole printed a letter today from "Brian", who claims to be a former Australian army officer involved in the training of soldiers. Brian is not impressed with the training regimen in Iraq:

Continue reading "On Iraq: The Question of the Army-in-training"

Posted by tomscud at 05:46 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 17, 2005

Everyone's an Apostate

...When you’re Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Zarqawi says Qaeda forms wing to fight Shi'ites

Al Qaeda's leader in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi said his group had formed a new armed wing to fight the Shi'ite militia Badr Brigade, according to an audio tape attributed to him and posted on the Internet on Tuesday.

"We in al Qaeda Organisation for Holy War in Iraq announce the formation of a military brigade named Omar Brigade, to cut off the symbols and factions of the treacherous Badr Brigade," said the voice on the audio tape which sounded similar to previous recordings attributed to Zarqawi.

Badr Brigade is the military wing of the Shi’a SCIRI (Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq) party. It claims to have transformed into a purely political organization, but most Iraqi Sunnis remain unconvinced.

Continue reading "Everyone's an Apostate"

Posted by eerie at 02:31 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack