US Foreign Policy Archives

January 21, 2010

Tariq Ramadan Beats City Hall

Yesterday U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton granted a waiver of the bar on U.S. entry imposed on Islamic scholar Tariq Ramadan, in response to the the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals' recent landmark decision in the denial of a U.S. visa to Islamic scholar Tariq Ramadan. The visa denial had been based on Ramadan's ostensible "material support of a terrorist organization," in the form of charitable contributions to two organizations, one French and one Swiss, providing humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian people. The U.S. State Department later retroactively determined that the donation recipients supported Hamas, and that Ramadan, as a "material supporter of terrorism," was effectively barred for life from the U.S. - in spite of the approved work visa petition that should have allowed him to take up the teaching position he had accepted at Notre Dame University.

Continue reading "Tariq Ramadan Beats City Hall"

Posted by evaluna at 08:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 21, 2009

Al Qaeda fil Maghreb and Sahelian Illusions

Maghreb Politics Review has a smart critique of the American extra-territorial seizure of supposed AQIM plotters (from Ghana) for trial in New York: US Arrests Malians in Terror Drugs “Link”

The comment is spot on relative to the strangely superficial and paranoid American approach to AQIM.

And the complaint is littered with attempts to illicit anti-American sentiments from the marks, who rarely return with anything more damning than a “God Willing” or two. Clearly the US government expects that everyone who hates America is on the same page, plotting across ideological lines, continents, and religions to hurt us. By selling drugs. To Europeans.

The counterpoint of blind nationalism here is blind paranoia, the thought that everyone must be scheming about you behind your back, that all “evil doers” are doing evil as part of a grand conspiracy to bring you down. If you wave several million dollars in front of three people from one of the poorest countries in the world, do you think when you say “You love Al-Qaeda, right?” they’ll launch into a subtle discussion of international terror? Or will they say “Oh yeah, you’re my brother cause we hate America too! And I’ll take that %50 up front in Euros.”

But this is par for the US government anti-terrorism law enforcement. The policing enforcement of US terrorism policy is as hamfisted as the military “war on terror”, except that the policing war is usually motivated by the desire for good domestic press. They tend to create their own terrorist plots, convince criminal idiots to accede to the plans invented by the US, and then arrest the patsies. The example of the recent Bronx terror plot in which the FBI informant took several not very bright young men recently released from jail, created a plot, bought gifts for them until they agreed to help, gave them the supplies, and then arrested them as “dangerous Al Qaeda terrorists.” Of course there are real terrorists out there, but it’s much easier to disrupt plots you invent yourself.

Emphasis added. Quite.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:00 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

November 12, 2009

Onion on Ft Hood

Nice little entry on Ft. Hood massacre reaction by the indefatigable (whatever that means) Onion.

FORT HOOD, TX—Following Army psychologist Nidal Malik Hasan's shooting rampage on the Fort Hood military base . . . fellow Muslims across the nation sent him a message today, saying "thanks a fucking bunch, asshole," to the 39-year-old killer. "Hey, great, eight years of progress right down the shitter" . . . .

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 20, 2009

Lewistful Thinking Reconsidered: A Conversion Narrative

However valuable Bernard Lewis may have been as a historian, his influence on recent academia/military/political thinking vis a vis MENA, has always been horribly worse than useless, but nevertheless quite significant. This account of a former academic disciple's ditching Lewis when encountering reality is worth reading if only to hear that when he encountered reality on the ground "with Bernard Lewis and Samuel Huntington as my guides, I ha[d] no way to make sense of such an encounter."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

June 06, 2009

Obama Talking to Just Arabs/Iran/MENA?

So says the Jakarta Post. That's in Indonesia. Jakarta, that is, not the Post. Well, the Post too but there are Posts everywhere.

At least three - democracy promotion, religious freedom and women's rights - of his seven points are more relevant to a region who's [sic] governments are bastions of despotism than [to] the average Indonesian,. . . . for the majority of Indonesians - Muslim or otherwise - these three issues are fundamental ways of life already held dear. . . Not surprisingly Indonesia's most eminent Muslim thinkers were products of Western scholarship, not Al-Azhar or Arab Universities . . ..But in Cairo he put an Arabic frame on a cultural dialog which most Muslims may not relate to.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 21, 2009

Maghreb, Mirages of Ungovernable Somalia on the Atlantic bis

Insofar as this gets out of the usual Middle Eastern centred blithering on, perhaps a return to the issue of Ungovernable Spaces is worth another post.

FT  - Algerian militants strike from eyries

The group seems to have since decided to restrict itself to military and security targets, although civilians often end up as collateral damage. Experts believe the change in tactics could mean the group has been weakened or that it has decided to try to spare civilians to avoid alienating the population.

“The suicide bombings tarnished them in the eyes of the people,” says Hmida Layachi, a newspaper editor and expert on Algeria’s Islamist groups. “They were losing the image that they were only fighting the rulers so they started avoiding operations in Algiers and other big cities.”

He believes there are 800 to 1,200 militants in the mountains of central and eastern Algeria in comparison with an estimated 40,000 armed insurgents during the 1990s.

AQIM also has groups in the Sahara desert in the south of the country. These have been roaming the borders with neighbouring countries, recruiting and training militants from Mauretania, Mali, Niger and Nigeria. The groups in the desert are small,but perform a crucial function by ensuring that a smuggled weapons and explosives reach their colleagues in the north.

A US military official says: “Right now if it weren’t for the logistic supply from southern Algeria and northern Mali, the group would be on its last leg.

Emphasis added.

This may or may not be true (I would be inclined to think it has some degree of truth in that the vast spaces of the Sahara are indeed hard to control and generally not actually worth controlling), but it certainly is a perception with no small degree of policy driving value.

Insofar as the Somali pirating has reminded EU & North American policy makers how very, very annoying ungoverned places can be, and how much paranoid fear of Al Qaeda drives foreign policy, I would hazard the opinion this sort of activity will have outsized impact on EU & NA engagement with the Maghreb and the Sahel.

Powered by ScribeFire.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:36 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

April 13, 2009

The Wonderful Magic of War Zone Microfinance - Iraq

Following my short note in Lounsbury 'next door' a longer comment on the' FT arty "Small US loans are catalyst for Iraqi business"


First, on the item that most irritated on reading

“I have increased my earnings and improved my family’s quality of life,” says Hamza Abid Ali, a grape-grower from Balad who has quintupled his income since taking out a $2,400 (€2,200, £2,000) loan from the Al-Baydaa Centre, a US-backed microcredit scheme. “I was earning only 500,000 dinars [$432, €322, £292] from each donam [unit of land] on my vineyard,” says Mr Ali, a 33-year-old father of three.“But with my loan, I bought a water pump and some netting to go over the top of the grapes, and now I am making 4m dinars per donam.”

Emphasis added: Having read my share of Donor AgitProp, this sort of repetitiously canned donor-lang. gets under my skin. It is positively formulaic.

In particular as the one-off examples say fuck-all about eventual longer financing stability or economic impact (although of course the examples are intended for audiences that would not understand the same).

In any event, micro-credit is so bloody fashionable that it is hard to sort out real results from fashionable spin. I do confess, however, there is some impact, although I personally tend to find it to be more along the lines of "poverty maintenance" rather than the sort of investment and financing that can create long-term and real sustained wealth growth. Not that poverty maintenance does not have its place, in particular in corrupt systems where the longer run growth investment prospects are .... constrained shall we say? There poverty maintenance may be simply the best choice available.

Regardless, the background

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:20 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 01, 2009

Referenda

A few years ago now, Sari Nusseibeh and Ami Ayalon pulled together The People's Voice agreement and started gathering signatures for it. The agreement was basically the common-sense back-of-the-envelope deal that everyone involved in Israel & Palestine could draw up as the eventual shape of a stable deal. The petition gathered about half a million signatures, then sank without a trace.

But Nusseibeh has shown up again, and is apparently suggesting that the Obama administration base its Middle East policy around his plan.

Continue reading "Referenda"

Posted by tomscud at 06:55 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

January 09, 2009

Gaza: A Modest Proposal

At risk of delving into the Israel/Palestine issue, where people too often yell, scream throw things, and put words into my mouth, I'd like to see what the denizens of Aqoul think of this idea for a cease-fire in Gaza, and where to go afterward, which is part of a larger plan to eliminate conflict by addressing socioeconomic inequalities, and which would also address other conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Continue reading "Gaza: A Modest Proposal"

Posted by evaluna at 07:32 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

December 30, 2008

Gaza round, all ye clowns: Open thread

Try to keep the hyperpartisanship down in this more heat than light subject. Observations, etc. on the latest, have at it. But when in doubt, note sentence 1 here again.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:50 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

December 14, 2008

But. . . is it good for the shoes?

(Apologies to an old parochial expression.) President Bush encounters one meaning of leading a sole superpower when a journalist in Baghdad tosses his footwear at the US head of state. The arch terrorist reportedly shouted "This is the End". Jim Morrison is sadly incapable of comment.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:48 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

November 04, 2008

Barack Hussein Obama MENA Open Thread

Looks like America's first Hawaiian-bred, Kenyan-derived, Indonesian-educated, 1960s-born, Muslim-middle-named President-elect is about to be. What does the success of Obama/Biden portend, if anything, for the Middle East North Africa region? Obama's foreign affairs team seems not wildly new, at least in terms of the conventional US spectrum. Some discussion has already started on the monthly open thread.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 30, 2008

Marshall Plan vs Iraq War: Costs

Another trivia about costs: Several sources indicate the war in Iraq has cost about $550 billion so far. Comparatively, the Marshall Plan which helped repel communism in Western Europe by bringing prosperity and stability there, cost $13 billion, which in today’s money is equivalent to anywhere between $100 and $750 billion. Applicability of such a plan in MENA today vs. post war Europe?

Posted by Shaheen at 01:30 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

September 21, 2008

As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA

Well, as we watch the United States nationalise its financial system in fits and starts, rather like the quasi emerging market it has become (I should note that I was amused to read comment somewhere regarding Central Banking and best practice, now that the US central bank has become the handmaiden of its finanance ministry. So much for all that independence talk they've spent the last decade pimping), a moment to look at MENA.

I suppose the Americans can say little about Iran's Gov booting a too uppity Gov of the Cen. Bank, not that one should expect particularly rational comment on Iran from the US at present, regardless.

I must say that the GCC going ahead with the monetary union preps surprised me slightly, insofar as its strikes me their interests are rather divergent at present in terms of policy.... but draft plans and actual execution are not something the Gulf is glued to by habit.

On perhaps the merely amusing side, Rush to the Gulf set to lower salaries speaks to the oversupply of bankers and doubts being expressed that the Gulf is really the boomtown(s) as presented. Dubai rather.... In the same manner, there is a nice set of items to talk about this week, if I get a chance, notably:

1. the first signs the Dubai et all Gulf Property Speculation Game is going to splot;
2. Capital flight can hit even the most well intentioned little financial black holes...even Dubai Land
3. But the oil gusher does allow for very high standards of National Poverty

Continue reading "As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:58 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 17, 2008

Yemen Goes South: Open Carnage Thread

Latest news indicates 16 or so dead in an apparent attempted raid on the U.S. Embassy to Yemen. This account, based on Yemen insider sources who work hard to bring the discussion quickly around to the expected "you need to send us more money, dammit", indicates it was a successfully stopped large-scale raid, and likely it was al-Qaeda (now there's some serious sleuthing!). Comments on the event from Aqoulites, friends, enemies, etc. . . . have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:29 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 07, 2008

But with respect to the Rice visit to the Maghreb

Although nothing remarkable, she did repeat the usual platitudes and as usual the terrorism optic was the main driver.. Certanly the Algerians will be annoyed that she mentioned the Western Sahara and a resolution on Rabat home territory, and the Moroccans sure to go on and on and on and on and on about that. On the other hand, the children are already playing about who got to see who, in this instance the Algerians making a big deal Rice did not see the Jet Skier en Chef. I wonder if the Algerian writer really believes the Jet Skier in Chief avoided rice over Saharan issues.... I am not sure which bunch are a bigger bunch of whankers.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:23 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Interesting: US Sec State visits Maghreb,

Odd, the current and ongoing visit by Ms Rice to the MAghreb seems to ex-Libya, been greeted with something of a shrug.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 24, 2008

MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?

Moving back MENA-ward, I add a rant inspired by long-time discussions here and elsewhere regarding investment in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. My amateur self keeps reading about Gulf or other money chasing things like real estate or hub port facilities, or digging out more of that Texas tea. Now, I hope I don't use too technical economic terms here, but here goes the rant: shouldn't the bulk of this fund dough, including money from superrich nations, be going towards activities where, you know, MENA regular folks will, like, MAKE NEW STUFF and then SELL THAT NEWLY-MADE STUFF TO OTHER PEOPLE for, um, HARD MONEY. That may sound a bit hi-falutin grad-school airy-fairy idealistic, development economics-y, but it needs to be said.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

August 19, 2008

Waning Maximalism: Siren Syria

It is always difficult to evaluate the reality of Gulf investments - they are the vapour ware of the investment world, often announced, much less often delivered. However, this Gulf Times arty on Gulfie investment in Syria is nevertheless interesting taken in hand with the recent trips by US bankers, hat in hand, to the Gulf.

While not explicitly connected, there has been major damage to American reputation - and Western banks reputations I would add - in this last year and one can not but think Lebanese Presidents visiting Syria is a bit of realism that but four years ago would have been off the table.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 16, 2008

Georgia-MENA open thread

(Apologies for genuinely accidental labored allusion.) Anyway, Russia has been doing a bit of marching through Georgia, reviving the Cold War-era 1980s for a bit (assuming the decade had ever left). Readers, writers, commenters, members, computer-owners and -operators are invited to share their wisdom on the latest Caucasian occasion, but most particularly in ways it may relate to the Middle East North Africa regions. Iran yawns; Israel lays low; Turks get dissed; Georgia removes its legions from Mesopotamia. And Vladimir Putin has been confirmed as Tsar of all the Russias, every blasted one of them, even those little Russias that fall under the couch cushions.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:10 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

August 14, 2008

3-judge panel declares "do-over" on Arar case

According to the Center on Constitutional Rights, the US Second Circuit of Appeals has decided to re-open the case of Maher Arar, the Syrian-born Canadian citizen who was deported to Syria by the US while transiting through JFK airport in New York. The case will be re-heard on December 9.

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August 11, 2008

The (Un)Surprising Failure of the Iraqi Private Sector

An utterly unsurprising report from The New York Times on the failure of the Iraqi private sector to take off after many preictions and the US pissing away billions on quixotic efforts in this regard.

The irony of these events is, as in the case of the Iraqi state, the Americans will leave behind not a vibrant liberal democracy showing fine examples of the benefits of free market economics. Instead they will leave behind a quasi democracy dominated by parties tending to vilayet-i-fiqh thinking and a massive state run sector.

And that is all that can be reasonably expected insofar as until the bombs stop and there is real security (not "security" as trumpeted by the Right Bolsheviks in the US of A, but security that makes real private capital feel secure).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 07, 2008

Nouakchott in the Dark: Mauretania Coup

Semi-Aqoulite alle on his blog provides background and details on Mauretania going coup coup. In comments by alle elsewhere on this site, he notes that "there goes the Arab world's most interesting experiment in democracy-by-coup."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 02, 2008

Arabic Translation Peeve, vol 200: Is this the Best the Army can do?

Check this out. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Mr. 9/11, provided in Arabic answers to questions in the trial of bin-Laden's driver. Here is what our competent Arabic translators of our front-line fighting forces in the war on terror, as edited by our leading media, in a trial under a global microscope, provide as one answer of his:

“As the American Army (we) have drivers, cooks, crewmen and legal personal,” Mohammed wrote. . . "We also, are human beings ... we have interests in life. ...You can not understand terrorism and Al-Qaida from 9/11 operation.”

Rant below.

Continue reading "Arabic Translation Peeve, vol 200: Is this the Best the Army can do?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:18 PM | Comments (29) | TrackBack

July 26, 2008

Anglos & Arabic: the bizzaro world of the MEMRIstas

Thanks to The Skeptic, or maybe to curse him as this I missed blissfully, of this special piece of stupidity that the Washington Post published earlier, in which a certain student Pollack whinges on about supposed biases in his Arabic text. A terribly tedious and queer little whinge - why it got published escapes me. Although this text came out I think some years after me own Arabic studies (done in the strange dark years of the Orange), I have encountered the book he refers to, and I have to say one has to be a particularly sensitive Likoudiste to find it objectionable. Boring, perhaps, but objectionable?

Although parenthetically, and perhaps of more interest, I wonder how I fit into our Skeptic's Egyptological scheme when I lived there:

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:33 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

July 11, 2008

The USS Liberty: It's back and . . . topically relevant!

The USS Liberty, the American intelligence ship attacked by Israeli naval and air forces in June 1967, is back in the news somewhat, and relevant to the news of the day. This assumes that this story has a true basis. Apparently the subject was raised in a meeting between US and Israeli officials. (For more Aqoul discussion on USS Liberty, go here, wherein I confess my conversion to the more-likely-a-screwup presumption.) Anyway: "According to. . . Haaretz, . . . the Liberty attack was raised in talks regarding Iran, and U.S. operations in the Middle East. . . [It] was agreed . . . that the United States and Israel would want to avoid any sort of 'mistaken confrontation' such as that which occurred when Israeli forces attacked the USS Liberty."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:29 AM | Comments (35) | TrackBack

July 06, 2008

Bring Us Your Poor, Your Tired, Etc., Unless They're Iraqi Refugees

The U.S. is currently patting itself on the back for admitting a whopping 6,480 Iraqi refugees to the U.S. since the start of U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, designed in response to the special needs of Iraqi refugees. While the admission of 4,872 Iraqi refugees to the U.S. this fiscal year is certainly an improvement over last year's total of 1,608, it's only a fraction of the 27,940 specially vetted referrals from UNHCR, let alone of the more than 4 million internally and externally displaced Iraqis.

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Posted by evaluna at 01:05 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 27, 2008

Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble

This Washington Post story nurtures the question: are the recent bubble-like oil price spikes driven by speculative runs on oil or are they driven by a fundamental growth in demand? The supply side, aka Saudi Arabia, claims the first choice and the demand side, aka America and industrialized states, claims the second. My semi-educated wild hunch is that the supply siders' 'explanation (high speculation) is closer to the truth. (UPDATE: Commenter Klaus notes a more recent Krugman column on the same subject arguing that economic fundamentals are primarily driving the price increase.)

Continue reading "Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:23 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 25, 2008

Background of the Boumediene vs. Bush case

As a follow-up to the recent US supreme court decision, it’s interesting to note that, Lakhdar Boumediene and the five other Algerians who were arrested with him were not captured in combat, but in their homes in Bosnia, a case of the “extraordinary renditions”, making even their status as “unlawful combatants” questionable.

They were naturalized Bosnian citizens, who the US authorities in Bosnia wanted extradited based on secret evidence (tapped conversations with “coded references to a terrorist plot” between one of the Algerian Bosnians and a relative of his who worked as a janitor in the Sarajevo US embassy, and other phone calls to a Pakistan based suspected terrorist). Several accounts seem to indicate the US would have exercised heavy Rambo-style pressure to obtain their arrest:

U.S. pressure to have the group extradited to the U.S. continued to mount. Initially, it boiled down to "if you are not going to convict them, just let us know when do you plan to release them and we will arrest them." A day before their detention ended, SFOR commander Gen. John Sylvester and U.S. Ambassador Clifford Bond met with top Bosnian and Muslim-Croat Federation officials and plainly told them if they did not hand over the group, Bosnia would pay a very high price. They added that they were through with Afghanistan and were just looking for another place to continue the struggle against terrorism. The message was quite clear, especially since they stressed that President George W. Bush was personally interested in the matter.

Continue reading "Background of the Boumediene vs. Bush case"

Posted by Shaheen at 08:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 12, 2008

Harold and Kumar Secure Habeas Rights

From the New York Times,

The Supreme Court ruled Thursday that foreign terrorism suspects held at Guantanamo Bay have rights under the Constitution to challenge their detention in U.S. civilian courts.

In its third rebuke of the Bush administration's treatment of prisoners, the court ruled 5-4 that the government is violating the rights of prisoners being held indefinitely and without charges at the U.S. naval base in Cuba. The court's liberal justices were in the majority.

Justice Anthony Kennedy, writing for the court, said, ''The laws and Constitution are designed to survive, and remain in force, in extraordinary times.''

The text of the decision is here

EDIT: See also Hilzoy's explanation of the decision at Obsidian Wings.

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June 11, 2008

Al-Sharq, babe, has such teeth, dear: Lebanese Big Shots Interviewed

(Apologies to Bobby Darrin and the Three-Penny Opera.) On what seems like the ultimate Summer Vacation for MENA nerds, a student provides extremely useful and interesting account of meetings with the pezzonovantes of the Lebanon. Via Col. Pat Lang, via commenter duaneg. Below, some choice excerpts....

Continue reading " Al-Sharq, babe, has such teeth, dear: Lebanese Big Shots Interviewed"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:30 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

June 07, 2008

American Elections & MENA: Extraordinary Interest

I have resisted the temptation to post about the American elections to date, as it would appear every other blog is doing so and as there was no special insight to bring. Prompted by observations made by some Latin American investors on a visit, and with reference to this sort of observation from the Financial Times on international interest in the election, it seems worthwhile to comment on the Latin Americans' own remarks that the North Africans business and financial persons they were meeting showed an intense interest in the US elections, unparalleled in Latin America. A banal observation, to be sure, but an excuse to reflect on what is indeed intense interest.

Continue reading "American Elections & MENA: Extraordinary Interest"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:38 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

May 28, 2008

Keffiyeh & Donuts: Ad Cancelled Because of Scarf Threat

Can it get dumber than this? Probably, but you'd have to work at it. The disturbing part is not the initiation of an attack on an ad because of a scarf that looks like a keffiyeh, it's that the anything-but-small-time ad sponsor would roll over so quickly, with no counterreaction against them for doing so. (Bonus related question: What is it about nationalism and, in other contexts than this, feminism, that makes such issues out of headgear?)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:56 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

May 26, 2008

On Israel & the American Empire

The Financial Times' Gideon Rachman has a useful editorial on the issue of US-Israeli FP issues. I am fundamentally tired of the subject, given the sensation there is some kind of devilish and pointless merrigoround, but this editorial reminded me that once in a not so distant past US-Israeli relations were governed by a certain rationalism. Pro-Israeli, as an ally, but rational and .... well, to be frank, defensible in the balance even in the Arab & Muslim worlds.
Link Fixed bloody whingers

The editorial reminds one that once upon a time the US had influence - in the I-P conflict, and in MENA. My own experience - in the private sector working for US connected firms leads me to agree with this:

Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank, says: “I can’t remember a time in the last half century where the US has had so little influence in the region.”

it is astounding how the tail is wagging the dog, or how little honesty and how much fear drives American policy in the region, and how much harm the Americans are doing to their long term interests (and I would argue, to sane Israeli interests...)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 PM | Comments (36) | TrackBack

April 23, 2008

Another Good Conspiracy Theory Down the Drain

Al Qaeda says an Israeli conspiracy didn't do 9/11. And, it adds, Iran started the Israel conspiracy rumor. Is that itself a conspiracy rumor?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:43 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

Open Thread on Carter, Hamas, and Stuff

Belaboring, distatefully, the last general subject area, we turn to Jimmy Carter's statement that Hamas was ready to accept Israel at some point in some way. Hamas itself seems to disagree. To me, it appears to be a conflict of spin. Hamas will not, for ideological reasons, recognize Israel but they appear to be willing to accept a Palestinian state on 1967 borders, and say they would accept a popular referendum to honor a truce to go no further. With spin, that can be seen as de facto acceptance of the Palestinian Authority's current or future recognition of Israel. Sounds alot like China and Taiwan, actually. (Which situation can erupt at any time, but probably won't as long as mutual prosperity keeps rearing its ugly head.) Anyway, unlike the previous thread where I had a strong opinion and not much time or interest to engage, as I was asserting something obvious, here I am inactive because I have no strong opinion or time, so it is just an open thread for those interested.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:15 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

April 02, 2008

A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It

It being a little quiet around here what with all of us busy and/or lazy, I thought I'd spice it up by going against the usual, and quite healthy, distaste of most Aqoul principals towards wading into the Israel-Palestine morass. Especially as there are anniversaries and such coming up. Anyway, today's lesson comes from a column of Michael Gerson (not a fan, myself, usually) in the Washington Post. It tells of a speech at the Holocaust Museum by an old gentleman, a Mr. Traum, who was once a very young gentleman in Nazified Austria. He recalls various events especially around Kristallnacht in 1938-39. Below the break is a revealing nugget.

Continue reading "A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:37 AM | Comments (74) | TrackBack

March 22, 2008

American Tantrums - Don't Talk to the Iranians

The Americans increasingly shrill tantrums about doing business with Iranstrike me as entirely self-defeating. Rather like the Cuban sanctions, they are likely merely to give the regime a foreign enemy and scapegoat an excuse on which to hang the consequences of its own economic incompetence. Never mind they are likely to be as successful as those stunningly successful Cuban sanctions (whose main purpose seems to be preventing Americans from vacationing on the cheap, but no matter, all the better for the aficionados of non-tradable products Cuban).

Childish idiocy and tantrums, wishful thinking and gradiosity seem to be what one is in for until this current band of incompetents in the US is out of power. Nine long months, if the cretins don't drive themselves into a currency collapse.

Meanwhile, I would think the US Treasury has better things to do with its time than haranguing the world about the risks of doing business with Iranian financial firms. It might do well to worry about the risks of doing business with American financial firms.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 09, 2008

Favouring Religous Minorities in Emigration - MENA, US, EU & Iran

An issue without an easy answer, with respect to "what is right" as such, raised by a Washington Post arty on US favouring religious minorities in emigration from Iran which to follow the article, has drained the communities.

The essential message from the article, in grosso modo, most Xian and Zoroastrians, etc seeking to leave have largely economic motivations. Hardly news, saw everywhere really. However, the community leaders see their people being drained away (and of semi-amusing note, to a land of immorality... US of A where gays can marry [ahem, well no, but...], horrors to the priest quoted). One wonders what would happen to Iranian Sunni communities given the same chances. What is right here? Rather like the priest, one has to say, well, given a chance...

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 05, 2008

Twilight Zone Analysis & Iraq

Reading this opinion piece from a former Bush Admin figure, I was almost impressed by the sheer, naked audacity of the argument:

If we continue to build on these developments, the Iraq war, once thought to be a colossal failure, could turn out be a positive and even a pivotal event in our struggle against militant Islam. Having paid a high cost in blood and treasure and having embraced the wrong strategy for far too long, we stayed in the fight, proving that America was not the “weak horse” Mr bin Laden believed it to be. Having stayed in the fight, we may prevail in it. The best way to subvert the appeal of bin Ladenism is to defeat those who take up the sword in its name.

We are a long way from winning in Iraq. It remains a traumatised nation and the progress made can be lost. But the trajectory of events is at last in our favour and a good outcome is within our grasp. If we succeed it will have enormously positive effects beyond Iraq.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:35 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 25, 2008

Economic Development, Foreign Investment and the War on Terror

Oddly via one of my investment robots, I ran across this Op Ed from Zenpundit favourite Thomas P.M. Barnett - a Strat Studies type - on the necessity to focus on promoting growth in MENA, and imp. of FDI. More important than making things go boom.

I shall leave this open to comment. I have some own reactions, which may really resolve to quibbles, to details in the Op Ed, but it is interesting to see this argument.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:15 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

December 28, 2007

Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work

Finally figuring out what anyone here could have told them years ago, US forces in Iraq have earned at least a B-plus in Empire-Building 101 -- not that that's a good thing, but it can salve a sore wound for an indefinite period. The principle is to use local power structures as your surrogates, basically by bribing them. This USA Today story details it well. (Thanks to a Klaus call, we have a link for the original stick-figure anti-insurgent plan offered by a later-killed US soldier here.)

Tribal sheiks . . . have seats on most of the city councils and the provincial council. . . . Many tribes run construction and trucking businesses and benefit from U.S. and Iraqi government reconstruction projects. The contracts with U.S. forces allow sheiks to hand out jobs, and thus maintain power.

Continue reading "Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 04:39 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

December 16, 2007

Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure

Not often do I get to be more right than Jim Henley, but here I claim it though I can't document my earlier growing sense that The Surge would turn out better than we cynics first expected. (The last time he was wrong, which goes back years, so was I, as when he predicted that Ariel Sharon would not go through with the Gaza withdrawal.) But now he is surprised that violence has not rebounded in Iraq since The Surge in a way he has predicted. I am far less surprised however and, although I started as a Surge Cynic as shown here, I have come to feel after more information that there has been a good chance of some sustained suppression of the violence. More on why, below.

Continue reading "Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:58 AM | Comments (28) | TrackBack

December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

Continue reading "NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 08, 2007

Citigroup: "Arab" Capital, Need and Fear

With the good apparent news that , as FT commentator Ferguson put it, World War IV is off as the warmongering Right Bolshies in America have had their arguments castrated, and a moment on the weekend, I think it useful to take an economy moment to reflex slightly on on Citigroup's rescue by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and the effective non-reaction of the usual suspects such as congenital cretin Mr Schumer. Now, the non-reaction somewhat wrong-foots my own commentary two months ago anticipating great hysteria, but perhaps the promise to be "silent" as an FT arty put it placated the professional cretin. Or perhaps rather his handlers in NY understood Citi's shaky state and shaped the reaction, so very different than either his reaction to the investment proposed in Nasdaq or last year (2006) with Dubai Ports World (also at the opening for more explicit Schumerism).

The contrast between in particular the round up of reaction in the Schumerism link and the non-reaction to Citigroup is interesting. Fear of banking collapse and grinding halt to the queer American use of houses as credit cards perhaps partial driving explanations on the political side, but my speciality is not American politics, which I care little about except where it has MENA blow back. Unfortunately given a near decade of utter cretinism on the Americans part in this respect, this is too frequent.

Continue reading "Citigroup: "Arab" Capital, Need and Fear"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:59 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

December 04, 2007

George W. Bush, a Lamer Duck than Mohammed the Teddy Bear?

It certainly surprised me, but in a report released today, all sixteen US intelligence agencies collectively stated:

We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program...

We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons...

We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.

Well, what about that as a spoiler for the Armageddon wing of the US government and neo-con movement?

Continue reading "George W. Bush, a Lamer Duck than Mohammed the Teddy Bear?"

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 02:13 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

November 27, 2007

Annapolis Semi-Open Thread

In Annapolis, Maryland, USA, another round of peace efforts commences in the Great Intra-Semite Parking Space Quarrel ("You have 22 other parking spaces!"/ "Well, you're not really a car!"/"God stamped this ticket!"). It -- the conference not the quarrel -- will last for "as long as [Rice] feels there is a good, solid and productive discussion." Have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:43 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

November 03, 2007

Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington

I have to borrow from the discussion on the previous thread the quotation below. It's from a book review of at-best mixed value but by someone with the knowledge to make the statement. Tell me its assertion is false. Please, God, please......

Continue reading "Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

October 25, 2007

The Magic Kingdom

Last week, I decided it would be interesting to watch The Kingdom, an action movie that followed four FBI agents sent to Saudi Arabia to investigate a massive attack on an American housing compound. I went not because I expected it to be intellectually stimulating (it wasn't) or because I figured I'd learn useful things from the film (I didn't), but because I wanted to see how Hollywood portrayed Saudi Arabia. Save for the surfeit of British villains, Hollywood is a useful barometer of American perceptions of a particular part of the world; there is a reason so many bad guys were Russians during the Cold War.

Continue reading "The Magic Kingdom"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 11:40 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

October 24, 2007

MENA Reform: Reform is Dead, Long Live Reform

In part provoked by stunningly irritating conference call with idiots (aka known as 'funders") and in part by getting this piece of silliness emailed to me by some of the same participants, the recent naming of a government in Morocco (for which you can see some useful French commentary chez Ibn Kafka, whose 2nd home at Aqoul sadly awaits the intervention of a mystery writer coming out with a stunning review of some Somali chick...) is a moment to reflect on reform, via this flawed although not entirely useless article in FT (if one closes one's eyes to the idiocy of quoting the USFP). I will add that yes it is clear that England is clearly stringing together his series of quotables, poor bastid is a bit at sea.

First, in preface, let me say that I have long held the opinion that political reform can not really take place except when driven by economic change. At the same time, my dear Ben Ali in Tunisia shows that economic progress without political reform in our MENA region, well can go down a blind alley to be polite.

Continue reading "MENA Reform: Reform is Dead, Long Live Reform"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:20 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

October 18, 2007

Iraq: Lessons in Risk & Investment

I was amused to read this New York Times arty on US military "concern" over Iranian and Chinese contracting and investment in Iraq.

Aside from providing a certain amusing lesson in economic interest, there are two key lessons here:
(i) That in high risk environments, private capital is cowardly (and rightly so),
(ii) that the US has and still is trying to "do" Iraq on the cheap and without real effort - not national mobilisation despite the Good & Evil rhetoric and calls to Second World War Hollywood imagery. No, drip, drip in billions of just enough for the moment to give the semblance of serious effort to the domestic audiences.

It makes the failure in Iraq sadder, but also more amusing to have the Chinese giving lessons in risk. It also makes more ridiculous the various ill conceived and half baked "economic initiatives" the Americans have launched in MENA, and Iraq - driven more by ideological wishful and magical thinking about magic entrepreneurship and private initiative springing full-formed out of Zeus's head than real effort to drive change, their "key word" parroted constantly and tiresomely in every bloody conference they bloody show up at.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:41 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

October 12, 2007

Talking Turkey (and Armenia and Kurdistan)

So the PKK is threatening to kill Turkish politicians now. A quick glance at the "related stories" link tells the past few days' story pretty handily:

• Turkey recalls ambassador to US (11 Oct 2007)
• Kurds urge Turkey not to attack (11 Oct 2007)
• Turkey seeks approval for Iraq raid (10 Oct 2007)
• Turkey warns US on Armenia bill (10 Oct 2007)

To sum up a bit more fully: after a series of attacks in eastern Turkey by the PKK, the Turkish government is threatening to move militarily into northern Iraq to strike back at suspected bases up to 60 km inside the Iraqi border. The Iraqi government has refused permission for the invasion; the Kurdish regional government has tried to be conciliatory, urging some kind of non-military action "because it's our problem too"; Americans and Europeans have also warned against an attack. Nonetheless, the army has already shelled suspected bases on the border, and the government is seeking approval from parliament for an "incursion".

Continue reading "Talking Turkey (and Armenia and Kurdistan)"

Posted by tomscud at 12:07 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

October 04, 2007

USS Liberty sort-of followup: Chicago Tribune

The Chicago Tribune does a service by giving the USS Liberty-attack veterans a full say. As I discussed many weeks back, the case deserves full fresh investigation. At the time, I shared my own developing conviction that it was more likely than not a case of culpable mistaken identity rather than a willful attack on an American ship (at least when it was ordered). The article erodes that conviction somewhat -- I'll downgrade mistaken identity from "buy" to "hold" -- but essentially the attack-with-foreknowledge argument often goes back to the same flaw: the belief that merely by defeating the "innocent mistake" claims by Israel and Fans, the only other conclusion is Israeli foreknowledge of the ship's American-ness before the attack began.

Continue reading "USS Liberty sort-of followup: Chicago Tribune"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:41 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

September 26, 2007

Abu Aardvark on The Surge & The Sunni Leadership

A personal favorite political magazine's blog presents a personal favorite political institute's video of an Aqoul favorite blogger Marc Lynch, aka Abu Aardvark, speaking at a conference at the CATO Institute on THE SURGE. The professorial Father of Aardvarks opines about the recent Iraq Sunni insurgent-US military cooperation, but bases his insights on Arabic language media and internet communications of Sunni community leaders. The conclusions he arrives at are basically that the Sunni leaders are stating to their very anti-US constituency that cooperation with the USA is merely tactical and the result of insurgent victories which forced the US to assist them in certain common aims of fighting al-Qaeda and fighting some Shiite militias. They view the government and al-Sadr as "Iranian" and they eventually want the entire US occupation out. In addition, the conditions are such that further sectarian fragmentation is underway and no matter how long the US stays, it appears the conditions will remain ripe for sectarian war. Informed readers, have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:48 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 22, 2007

America's Crusade to Drive Away Arabo-Muslim Investment

Senator Schumer, ignoramus and fear-mongerer at large whose understanding of Dubai, whore entrepot of the Gulf, is that it's Al Qaeda central: "Dubai has been cited as a nexus for terrorist financing and money laundering and a 'potential crossroads' for shipping and trading linked to Iran's drive to obtain nuclear materials and technology"

Evidently despite representing New York, his literacy in matters financial is also terribly limited (or he merely is one of those Phobics post 11 Sep who are smart enough to dress up their fear of all things Islamic in other clothes), for Dubai taking a stake in NASDAQ really means fuck all (other than they're likely to be soaked just like the Japanese were in their Rockefeller Centre / NY buying spree...).

Continue reading "America's Crusade to Drive Away Arabo-Muslim Investment"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

September 13, 2007

Iran War On the Way: More Evidence

It appears that I may have been right to call attention to those saying a war on Iran is being rolled out by the Administration. An informed and expert source in DC affirmed it to me as well a few days back. And it looks like the usual suspect sources are now marketing it. (Love the part where we can mysteriously tell that the Germans really want us to attack even as they back away from sanctions against Iran. Saying "no" when they really mean "yes", those Teutonic teases!) Michael Ledeen appears to be the one whose job is to incite the converted; he who says that al-Qaeda and Iran are interchangeable terms and at one point called Dubai, an "Iranian colony". Man, all them dang camel jockeys are the same and interchangeable, and that thinking is how one manufactures a war. Anyway, Aqoulites and Aqoulite wannabes with Iran-specific knowledge are needed to weigh in, now and in the future.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:19 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

September 09, 2007

Quick Roundup of News on Roundups

{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)

Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)

Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.

And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 07, 2007

Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day

Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."

Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"

In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".

Continue reading "Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 03, 2007

Dar Fur: Not So Simple as Arabs attacking "Blacks"

As longer-term readers of Aqoul know, I have rather long been beating away at a point re Dar Fur: that the nice little story packaged up for college activists and Islamo / Arabophobes re Dar Fur fundamentally mis-characterises tribal resource war as genocide and that the real story is desertification and excessive population pressure on an environment that can't support the combination of population lifestyles and numbers. And that the simplistic narrative of Black Africans versus Arabs (imagined to be people looking rather like Saudis, rather than the said Arab elders in the photo... who are rather obviously Arabised locals of a most "Black" genotype....)

The New York Times in a generally decent article, Chaos in Darfur on Rise as Arabs Fight With Arab makes me point, if belatedly. Of course, it contains certain idiocies, such as referring to Arab tribes in the plural but the Fur as a single tribe - they are of course a linguistic group about as much a single tribe as "the Arabs." Which is to say, they are tribes, plural. The article is very much worth a read and promotion. As I am an optimist by nature, perhaps it can help correct some of the delirious whanking on about Arab genocide on the Blacks, and maybe refocus on the real tragedy of an ecological and economic catastrophe and a spiral of destruction as clan and tribal warfare becomes bloodbaths via guns (not that history of the Maori should be forgotten in reminding one and all this is hardly a new phenomena).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:50 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 02, 2007

Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?

The informed blogosphere and newsosphere are abuzz with rumors* that a US war, or a sustained attack (i.e.war), on Iran is being put out for aggressive marketing by Administration innards this week. Events will prove this true or false. Regardless of the rightness or wrongness of such a thing, if it is being planned, I do wonder if the questions and considerations below have been addressed.

Continue reading "Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows

My favourite newspaper, as a running dog of an anglo saxon ultra liberale as the francophones like to style me (well except the running dog part, it not being in the idioma) The Financial Times has a fine series on Remittances, or in more ordinary language, money sent home by 3rd Worlders working outside of home country.

Funny these terms. Leaving this aside, remittances is quite a hot topic in the financial world, both in policy and in the money making parts, because the volumes are huge and our grubby little minds always think there must be ways to do interesting things with cash flows. More prosaically, the development people are all atwitter that:

In many developing countries today, more money comes from remittances than from foreign aid, foreign investment or even traditional exports. In Central America, remittances have long eclipsed traditional agricultural mainstays such as coffee and bananas. Migrants send more money to Morocco than tourists spend there. In some small countries – Lebanon, Serbia, Haiti, Tonga, Albania and Jamaica are all examples – remittances generate more revenues than all merchandise exports put together. The latest World Bank figures list 14 countries where migrants’ earnings account for 15 per cent or more of economic output, ranging from Moldova with 38 per cent to Jamaica with 16.4 per cent.

So there must be ways to make this money work better than merely supporting consumption, they say!

On the other side, and this is particularly true for marginally financially literate American government officials, there is this huge obsession with hawala (their mot phare, having just learned it, and thinking it applicable everywhere in - what do they call it, the silly little American provincials, BMENA or GMENA (Broader / Greater MENA), (1) and transfers (informal or otherwise) as terror financing. Apparently insensible to the data indicating nothing much in the way of money laundering as such has been involved in al Qaeda acts despite much fevered talk.

Continue reading "Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 13, 2007

A Cheney is only as strong as the weakest link

This American Enterprise Institute resident's expert comments, from circa 1994, are making the rounds, as well they should. Perhaps no one in the current Administration had encountered these thoughts, during the buildup to the Iraq invasion.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 12, 2007

Blacklisting little tiny radical groups

The first thing that came to mind in reading that that the Americans have "blacklisted" a little radical group in a Leb refugee camp was "oh my, I guess they won't be able to launder any assets through buying discounted mortgage assets.... Well, actually that's not true, my first thought was "why do they bother?"

I have no doubt it took more expenditure on the part of the Americans to go through the process, than this little marginal group has ever seen. Freezes their assets.... for a group of flea-like importance relative to US interests. In the Americans fixation in a Comintern / Soviet type threat, they descend into comical acts; wasteful as well.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 31, 2007

Weapons for Everyone

As you might already have read, the United States has announced a massive arms package covering Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf countries. Guardian columnist Brian Whitaker, a Middle East expert, believes the deal is a bad idea, as it will inflame Sunni-Shia tensions throughout the region. While I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Whitaker, I must respectfully disagree with him and say I consider the deal a good idea overall.

Continue reading "Weapons for Everyone"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:36 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

June 18, 2007

Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath

Monty Python's Life of Brian meets real life as this woman gets to speak in public as if she knows what she is talking about. Saracen-slayer Ayaan Hirsi Ali was speaking at the National Press Club and I accidentally heard it on the radio. At first I didn't know who it was until a stream of simple-minded inanities about Islam versus the West narrowed it down fast. No transcript available, only memory, but I had to belly-laugh and nearly spew as she explained Islam's rigidly came from the fact that it takes its Scriptures as literal and divinely authored unlike, um, Christianity. In the Christian Scriptures, she explained, the books are not fixed as being written by God, but are said to be written "by people . . . like Paul . . . and Deuteronomy." (That's exactly what I heard, folks.) What an expert guide for us on religion and progress! O, why did I have to be a Monty Python fan?

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:30 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

June 12, 2007

Desperately Seeking Sudan: Key War on Terror Ally

This Baltimore Sun story is not too much of a surprise for those who connect the dots and are somewhat informed. "Sudan has secretly worked with the CIA to spy on the insurgency in Iraq . . . . The relationship underscores the complex realities of the post-Sept. 11 world, in which the United States has relied heavily on intelligence and military cooperation from countries, including Sudan and Uzbekistan, that are considered pariah states for their records on human rights. "

Now does anyone know of any Hariri connection?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:42 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 05, 2007

USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly.

Among the Mideast Six-Day War's 40th anniversary issues will be the June 8, 1967 attack by Israeli military forces on the USS Liberty, an American naval intelligence ship. In international waters near Egypt's Sinai peninsula, the vessel was torpedoed by Israeli Navy vessels, following repeated strafings/napalmings by Israeli Air Force planes. A special remembrance was held at the Navy Memorial (7th and Penn) in DC on June 8. Despite my own newer conclusion that the incident was indeed a result of Israeli errors, rather than an assault with foreknowledge of the ship's American nationality, I do think the incident should receive long overdue U.S. public investigation and hearings .

Continue reading "USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 AM | Comments (27) | TrackBack

June 02, 2007

How Do You Say "Chutzpah" in Arabic?

The Department of Homeland Security, in a nod to the U.S.' long tradition of aiding those huddled masses who yearn to breathe free (or at least yearn to refrain from having their heads blown off), has announced that a whopping total of 60 Iraqis will shortly be admitted to the U.S. as refugees - but only if they pass the required security checks, of course.

Continue reading "How Do You Say "Chutzpah" in Arabic?"

Posted by evaluna at 12:00 PM | Comments (33) | TrackBack

May 23, 2007

Keep your Sunni side up: Lebanon conspiracy theory #637

Seymour Hersh propounds this conspiracy theory of sorts regarding the rise of Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon. I don't buy it offhand, but there's plausibility in a Saudi role in promoting Sunni anti-Shiite counterweights, with US winks and nods. Any takers?

What I was writing about was sort of a private agreement that was made between the White House, we're talking about Richard -- Dick -- Cheney and Elliott Abrams, one of the key aides in the White House, with Bandar. And the idea was to get support, covert support from the Saudis, to support various hard-line jihadists, Sunni groups, particularly in Lebanon, who would be seen in case of an actual confrontation with Hezbollah -- the Shia group in the southern Lebanon -- would be seen as an asset, as simple as that....There is a supreme overwhelming fear of Hezbollah and we do not want Hezbollah to play an active role in the government in Lebanon and that's been our policy, basically....

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (42) | TrackBack

April 28, 2007

Maybe All is Not Lost in Translation

Apparently the U.S. Congress has taken notice that a grand total of fifty green cards per fiscal year was not going to meet the demand created by Iraqi and Afghan translators who have placed their lives in danger by serving as translators and interpreters for U.S. forces.

Continue reading "Maybe All is Not Lost in Translation"

Posted by evaluna at 12:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 05, 2007

Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town

Youssef Boutros Ghali, Egypt's Minister of Finance, will be giving his take -- perhaps a bad choice of words -- on the economy of Nile-dom right here in Potomac River City, aka Washington D.C., on Thursday, April 12 (reserve at the CATO Institute by 11 April). Full details are below the break, and here, the most important of which is "Cato Forums and luncheons are free of charge." D.C area Aqoulites are required to go, if they are below 32 and in any kind of University. Meanwhile, informed comments from all on the subject, including from our own regional finance hyperinformed but Masrophobic resident Id, are welcome.

Continue reading "Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:16 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

March 13, 2007

Go East Old Man, Go East: Halliburton to Dubai

An interesting article, or rather an article on an interesting development that is difficult to assess. From the FT, entitled Risky Locations, on Halliburton's queer decision to move its CEO to Dubai.

I am, to be frank, puzzled. Comment below (crossposted from The Lounsbury).

Continue reading "Go East Old Man, Go East: Halliburton to Dubai"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:27 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 06, 2007

Iraq Oil Law Discussion

Somewhat tardily, but at reader request, a note on the new Iraqi oil law bill in cabinet, as reported in the FT.

My quick reaction: meaningless bollocks. My longer reaction, bloody idiotic meaningless bollocks just like the fucking schools painted and other such nonsense that only idiotic innocents with no fucking sense of fucking reality will get excited about. There are no economics to discuss. There is no way to model having your pipelines constantly cut and if you're in Kurd Land, the Kurds losing control of their production, a political threat of no small probability.

Reader reactions welcome.

[NB: corrected some idiotic early AM grammatical blunders, linking idiocies and the like-CL 7 march]

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:19 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 25, 2007

Nerds Only: Oral Histories of US Diplos Now Online

Quick note: The US Library of Congress has unleased upon unsuspecting humanity a large set of full text interviews with key US diplomats of the 20th century. Some MENA material is here, and elsewhere on the somewhat hard-to-navigate site. Nerds, start your engines.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 14, 2007

Lost in Translation: U.S. Policy Toward Iraqi Translators and Interpreters

With an estimated 3.8 million Iraqis currently living as refugees, it’s not surprising that the U.S. might want to help by taking in a few hapless souls until Iraq stabilizes. So I wasn’t at all shocked to see that Washington has offered to provide refugee visa slots for its customary drop in the bucket. That’s right - 7,000 lucky Iraqis, or 0.18% of those who have fled during the current conflict alone, will be granted the opportunity to start over in the U.S. in the form of asylum.

Continue reading "Lost in Translation: U.S. Policy Toward Iraqi Translators and Interpreters"

Posted by evaluna at 11:03 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

January 16, 2007

Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?

A new project, wikileaks.org is out of the bag, ahead of schedule. News leaked of the new site's proposal to unite international cybernerd expertise with political dissidence to create a place where persons can safely post leaked government documents with minimal fear of direct detection. The technical feasability and security value I know not, but here is where they provide basic info, with link to a sample of a leaked document allegedly from the Somali Islamic Courts movement. For MENA-watchers, or more probably US-MENA watchers, it may be a site to keenly watch.

Continue reading "Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:55 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 14, 2007

War with Traditional Islam

An interesting blog post from military specialist and commentator Col. Pat Lang (a real colonel, unlike my old Col appellation, a mere shortening of my name) on War Against the Boogey Men, critiquing the American approach to the Iraq war and the larger engagement with the Middle East.

The item that caught my eye was this:

"Freedom" and "Islamic Fascism" clearly have "special" meanings here. I say that "freedom" as the bushies use the term is code and really means westernization and "globalization" in the sense that we want to see the world "ironed out" flat so the it meets the egregious Friedman's dream of a homogeneous world. "Islamic Fascism" means, I think, simply "Islam." That is, Islam as it has been understood by millennia of Muslims. That is, as an all encompassing view of the world and man's relationship to God. "Ah, but these are not real Muslims," I can hear the outcry now. Rubbish. We non-Muslims can not dictate to any particular group of Muslims what Islam means to them. We want an Islam similar in its role in life to the emasculated role that Christianity plays for most Americans in their lives? Sorry! We do not get to choose for them. There wil be a reaction to what I have written here. It will be similar to the outrage vented on me by a former congressman from the Midwest who went on and and on about the nice ladies who come to his office to tell him that Muslims are a peaceful lot. Peaceful? Yes? Within limits.

My analysis leads me to the belief that we are fighting against traditional Islam.

Emphasis added.

Continue reading "War with Traditional Islam"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:06 PM | Comments (77) | TrackBack

January 09, 2007

Wishful Thinking, Grasping at Straws, and Other Habits of Highly Effective Pundits

I know that taking Andrew Sullivan apart whenever he embarasses himself talking about Islam is old hat on this blog, but his recent post about the possible benefits of the Iraqi civil war for the war on terror deserves special mention. You see, by declaring victory and then leaving Iraqis to slaughter each other, we counter al-Qaeda's "West versus Islam" narrative with an "Islam versus Islam" narrative.

Continue reading "Wishful Thinking, Grasping at Straws, and Other Habits of Highly Effective Pundits"

Posted by homais at 02:05 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

January 05, 2007

Saddam Execution & Recent Events: A Moroccan Perspective

The casual reader of Tel Quel, a trendy francophone Moroccan weekly, or, to a lesser extent, of Le Journal hebdomadaire, might be forgiven for thinking that the average Moroccan is more interested in the depenalisation of cannabis, the right to convert to Southern Baptism or whether algebra will be taught in Tamazight than in events in the Middle East. One Tel Quel journalist wrote "Je n’aime pas le Hezbollah" ("I don't like Hezbollah"), thus showing how disconnected this magazine is from the broad strands of Moroccan public opinion - fiercely pro-Palestinian, pro-Hezbollah and anti-US.

Continue reading "Saddam Execution & Recent Events: A Moroccan Perspective"

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 05:10 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

December 29, 2006

Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Any Real Meaning in "Moderate" Elections?

A somewhat Arab News-ish article from FT on the Moroccan PM - who's on shaky ground according to the movers and shakers of the Maghreb biz community - comments that the Islamists can't really win in the upcoming elections, given they're structured against them.

I continue to be frustrated with this short-sightedness.

Returning to the question posed in the title, is there any real meaning in "moderate" elections? Am I the only observer that feels this sort of game has the tendency to bring long term discredit on the concept of "secularism"? (well, actually my opinion is that it already has.)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:30 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 27, 2006

You Can't Be Syria's? Ambassador Blogging

The envoy to USA from Syria apparenlty maintains a personal blog. I'll leave it to our distinguished readership to assess the value or lack thereof, and the deeper sociopolitical meaning. In the meantime, I kind of enjoyed his linking to this survey by Sami Moubayed of Syrian women's rights activities (which, I would note, apparently did indeed exist before the Levantine Boadicea of You Tube, Wafa Sultan, so bravely invented them from -- where was it? -- California, circa 2005.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:46 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

December 08, 2006

Surprising, the talent attracted: USG staffing in Iraq & MENA

I am generally uninterested in the new US Gov report on their self-made fiasco in Iraq, as it will likely be lost in the navel gazing party political whanking in the US -with all the aspects of a neo-Bolshevik circular firing squad - but in perusing published commentary I was struck by the following quote from a Washington Post arty (struck but not inherently surprised):

The report is replete with damning details about the administration's inept handling of Iraq. It notes, for instance, that only six people in the 1,000-person embassy in Baghdad can speak Arabic fluently. It recounts how the military counted 93 acts of violence in one day in July, when the group's own reexamination of the data found 1,100 acts of violence. "Good policy is difficult to make when information is systematically collected in a way that minimizes discrepancy with policy goals," the report says.

At this late stage in the game it is indeed striking that the US still can not mobilise sufficient human resources of quality and proper qualifications.

Continue reading "Surprising, the talent attracted: USG staffing in Iraq & MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:44 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

December 06, 2006

Iraq Study Group Report Released

Today the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group published its report that proposes a new course for the U.S. administration in Iraq, all neatly listed in 79 recommendations.

A pdf of the report can be downloaded here.

Having watched the one-hour news conference and read all 160 pages I am too bleary-eyed to write any detailed comments. In short, the report is very well done and - particularly against the backdrop of the past 5 years of U.S. policy towards Iraq and the Middle East as a whole - a remarkable document that everyone should read.

Now I'm waiting for the reaction from the White House.

Posted by raf* at 01:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 04, 2006

A Grand Bargain with Iran?

In 2003, as American troops were moving into Baghdad, Iran offered the United States a grand bargain. The deal offered was simple: Iran would not attempt to procure WMDs, stop supporting terrorism, cooperate in Iraq, and accept a two-state solution for Israel/Palestine, in return for a full normalization of relations with the United States, an end to sanctions, cooperation on technology, and a recognition of Iranian security concerns.

Continue reading "A Grand Bargain with Iran?"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 01:28 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

December 01, 2006

Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy

The slow motion disaster that is Iraq has come to bore me, now that I have written off personal interests there (although as an aside, now one doesn't cease to get offers to take part in US reconstruction - sorry boys, too late. In '03 I would have done it. Now you're 3 years down the road to utter catastrophe, not a bloody chance).

However, as part of the larger wreckage of US policy, that remains sadly a major but largely negative driver in the region (not due to overall intentions, but realism of how and on what schedule said intentions can be implemented - which is to say due to the utterly magical fairy-dust approach they insist on taking) one has to be interested in Iraq and US MENA policy which surrounds it and is in part driven by the fiasco.

Continue reading "Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

November 29, 2006

US & Iraq: Imbecilic Navel-Gazing as Strategy

I read and was told that the major US media (or to adopt the childishly imbecilic Neo-Bolshevik speak of the American blogs, "Mainstream Media") has finally gotten around to calling the Iraqi civil war, a civil war. I rather foolishly thought that this might be welcomed among the more cogent and cogniscent corners of online commentary as a breath of fresh air and a good point of departure for actually bloody well tackling the disaster looming in front of the US of A, rather than childishly whinging on about terminology and pretending if only they don't bloody admit how bad it is, some magical intervention will somehow rescue them from the now inevitable disaster. I do say invevitable, for the Americans have already lost - as the Soviets already had two or three years before they could bring themselves to admit it.

But no. Rather, even into the center regions of the American Whankatariat, idiotic, droolingly cretinous idiotic denial, and simple minded self regarding idiocy is the result. The essential objection as far as I can tell (once I peel away the piss-poor half-informed and 1/4 understood history of Shia and Sunni, of Arab and Kurd - typical "they've always been" rubbish) - is that calling a spade a spade may lead the US to flee the field.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:24 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

November 22, 2006

MENA Moving Forward: Policy Shifts

This is something of an open thread, but motivated by my sensation that the there may be (on the margin) some meaningful reorientation of American policy, which for better or worse (often both) is a key external driver in the region, I thought we might have some thoughts on subjects worth discussing regarding future MENA developments. I personally have the penchant for the economic, but understand it is not of general interest.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

November 10, 2006

Global Gazing: MENA Echoes on US Election

As any number of MENA blogs can note, the US elections have been greeted in the region with a huge sense of relief, if only I would say from a rising sense of desperation with the Americans blundering about the region like a blind, maimed and lobotomised elephant.

Although I have been submerged in a potentially very profitable transaction as well as discussing with my new Managing Director carving out our operations and team from the Titanic (only a month on the job and the man is already on our side), I can attest that conversations over this week - with Americans, with Europeans, with above all MENA natives have all revolved around an expressed hope that the blundering incompetents in the US Presidential offices might finally give over some power to the realists.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:39 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

November 08, 2006

Rumsfeld Stepping Down

In the wake of popular dissatisfaction over the mishandling of Iraq (as shown in yesterday's elections), AP reports that Rumsfeld will be stepping down from his post as Secretary of Defense.

I'm sure members of our peanut gallery have opinions about potential shifts in US foreign policy now that Democrats have control of the House (and perhaps the Senate?). Feel free to yammer on and post links as things develop.

Posted by eerie at 01:04 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

October 28, 2006

On Iraq & Pre-War Predictions: What Do You Mean "We", Paleface?

Apologies to the old Lone Ranger joke. Clive Davis writes this lament of the disaster unfolding in Iraq. "It wasn't just the Bush team that made mistakes, of course. Didn't we all underestimate the challenge?" (emphasis added).

Ummm, no. That sentence may imply a whole new set of meanings for the words "we" and "all", hitherto unsuspected. Even my own neglected blog in early 2003 quoted this far-from-rare Jason Vest article from the (annoyingly) lefty mag The Nation that got it right. That article (and even little old me) were among so many others -- from every walk of life, punditry, as well as civilian and military industry, large and small -- who loudly forsaw everything, more or less. Not to mention our very own Aqoul curmudgeon. To the time machine!

Continue reading "On Iraq & Pre-War Predictions: What Do You Mean "We", Paleface?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:03 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

October 22, 2006

Spinning in different languages or proper adjusting of message to audience?

Following up on some small debates on MEMRI mendacity and accusations of doubletalk between English and Arabic on the part of Arabophone intellectuals, I found the following article from Reuters interesting, amusing and also thought-provoking: Diplomat acknowledges U.S. "arrogance" in Iraq.

The essence of the story, the head of US public diplomacy Near East bureau, Alberto Fernandez, apparently (I have been too busy to watch TV myself) acknowledged the US has bollixed up Iraq due to arrogance and stupidity. The US government has forthwith claimed (re the English) it is a misquote.

A moment to reflect on the problems of structuring messages and communicating between languages, based on the longer text of the same Reuters story from the NY Times Reuters feed.

[Update: Unsurprisingly this is showing signs of setting off, what was it called in comments, a stupid storm: I point to Bou Aardvark's note on the issue. I wonder if the stupid storm on the part of pornstarlet wannabes like Malkin will actually deprive the US of one its few capable interlocutors on the Arab Sats, in some cretinous recreation of Soviet style purges for not following party lines]

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:23 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

October 16, 2006

Backers of Dovish American Jewish Initiative Deny Opposing AIPAC

When JTA ran a story last week about an initiative backed by George Soros (or not yet backed if you believe Rosner's reports below) and other powerful dovish American Jewish leaders, it noted that one of the purposes of the initiative would be to present a progressive counter to AIPAC. All of this seems perfectly reasonable to any reasonable American Jew. But the 900lb gorilla Goliath has taken notice of little David standing beneath him and he's roared his annoyance. As a result, it's humorous to see the erstwhile progressives scurrying like ants to backtrack:

Jewish organizational officials who have participated in the meetings said JTA's characterization of their aim in a story earlier this week, as an alternative to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, was wrong...

Those currently leading the effort say they're happy to work with AIPAC.

"My involvement is that Mort Halperin's an old friend," said Mel Levine, a former U.S. Democratic congressman who is now a high-powered West Coast lawyer. "Mort asked me to go to an initial exploratory meeting about a pro-Israel advocacy organization that would focus on a two-state solution, that would focus on Israel and was not in competition with anyone else."

That did not usurp AIPAC'S role of advocating for a strong U.S.-Israel alliance, Levine said.

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Posted by Richard Silverstein at 08:09 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 06, 2006

Petulance: MENA, American Magicalism & Infantilism

I noted our old amigo Abu Aardvark has a comment on Israeli presence on al Jazeera (and an apparent continued American boycott) that is worthy of consideration, as usual.

I frankly am at a loss to understand how the present American Administration is proceeding in region, other than by pure infantile magicalism. Refusing to talk to "bad actors" and essentially adopting a politico-diplomatic strategy that amounts to "I am going to hold my breath until you change and like me" hardly seems to be an appropriate strategy of a great power. But then considering the cretinous demarches to date, perhaps not talking is best.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:15 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 25, 2006

Leb Land & Recon, Back to Networks

Returning to a hint I made a month ago, I find on the newswires confirmation of the scheming re buying some street cred in Lebanon after the disastrous backing of 'transformation via Israeli shells' did such a lovely job of fucking American reputation into a cocked hat.

The USD 250 million of course is better than zero, but I am having a hard time seeing effectiveness given zero on the ground networks.

Hezbullah won, and even the backstopping effort isn't very good.

[Updated with links to actual entries supra, just to prove The Lounsbury is ahead of the curve]

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:17 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

September 19, 2006

Arar Commission Report Released

A quick note to draw attention to the release of the Maher Arar Commission report (helpful timeline available here). I had a chance to skim the report and the fact-finding document; neither one casts Canada's security services in a favorable light. The report is the result of immense public pressure to investigate Canada's role in Arar's "extraordinary rendition" by US authorities and subsequent torture at the hands of Syrian military intelligence. Now that Arar has been cleared of any wrongdoing, the media is having a field day over the commission report's scathing indictment of the Mounties.

It is of course important to note that the commission's ability to gather information was limited by the US State Department's refusal to cooperate. In light of this decision, I found it rather telling that portions of the report were censored to protect "international relations" as well as national security. In any case, it was found that Canadian authorities did not participate in Arar's actual deportation to Syria, though the intel supplied to US authorities likely played a part in their decisionmaking.

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Posted by eerie at 10:47 PM | Comments (26) | TrackBack

September 15, 2006

Futile Bollocks and Banking

Although I remain rather too busy to contribute as I would like and should, the Generator is too embarassing to have as the lead item, so a comment on an important piece of idiocy by the Americans: their attempt to shut the Iranians out of the financial markets unilaterally: US threatens further action against Iranian banks.

I frankly find such interventions borderline retarded, as well as self-defeating, leaving aside the willy nilly confusion of Hezbullah with al Qaeda in such rhetoric. Incoherence.

Continue reading "Futile Bollocks and Banking"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 27, 2006

Losing and Winning: Constituency Service

Roula Khalaf, who I may add is simply one of the must-read journos on Middle East has a fine profile in FT on Hezbullah's reconstruction efforts

I know from work I am engaged in right now that this will send France, US and others into a tizzy.

But there is no beating them. Quick roll out of Western institutional aid is simply not going to be competitive, because the networks are not there.

Where the damage is, the institutions are Hezbullah.

Continue reading "Losing and Winning: Constituency Service"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:59 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 26, 2006

Returning to Agit Prop

Without further comment, I share:
"I Was a Propaganda Intern in Iraq"
Electronic Iraq - USA: He was just 22 years old and he was an intern at the Lincoln Group, the Washington-based government contractor.

Contra my usual impression of "activist" sites, this particular article is fairly well-done and interesting. I will note that the intern's comments match my own impressions and what I heard through other sources.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 24, 2006

Giddiness: MENA Private Sector & New America Foundation

In reading the first paragraphs of a Washington Post Op Ed by a fellow at the New America Foundation, entitled The Real 'New Middle East' I thought I was going to be pleased, sadly though the author took real observations and mixed them in with simple-minded swallowing of corporate and governmental PR spin to produce absurd tripe typical of the wide-eyed neophyte or the paid propagandist.

A pity as the author's main thesis in a less over-done and gullible form has merit.
_{Cross posted from The Lounsbury}

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 17, 2006

MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans

While I confess this note is in part motivated by my desire to have an excuse to share this cartoon from the Moroccan business daily, l'Economiste from yesterday's - 16 Aug edition. This was emailed to me yesterday, and is worthy of a good laugh, I thought it also worthwhile to undertake some reflexions on both the subject matter and some generalisations about practical issues.

[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]

Continue reading "MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

August 11, 2006

Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)

The rising chorus of commentators horrified at the American-Israeli desire to play a self-indulgent Thelma & Louise drive-off-the-cliff policy in MENA continues to grow.

Ranging from a late echo to my own "Guns of August" allusions, in the Washington Post yesterday (although the lunatic Thelma & Louise approach is reaffirmed by Gingrich and Krauthammer today), to Roula Khalaf's analysis in the Financial Times last week, to intelligent Israeli analysts realising that this 1982 business is not going to get any better, whatever the utterly magical thinking going on in Bush and Olmert governmental quarters, to The New York Times (in a generally decent if somewhat superficial review) noting the disastrous impact this useless war is having on American policy interests.

Continue reading "Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 03, 2006

Creative Destruction & Own Goals - "The New Middle East is Already Dead"

Text: "Uncle Sam wants to 'educate' our political parties"
TV: "War in Lebanon - Massacre"
US: "Lesson 1, turn off the telly."

The entry title comes from a radio report I just heard on RFI. The above is from a Moroccan business journal online, l'Economiste, normally a fairly liberal publication. Fairly amusing in the end, and illustrative of the spill over effects of the public US diplomatic position.

Continue reading "Creative Destruction & Own Goals - "The New Middle East is Already Dead""

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:55 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 01, 2006

Baalbek (Updated: 2 Aug)

The madness continues.

Sats (Arab and Euro) are reporting Israel is attempting an air-mobile operation in Baalbek (Mid-Lebanon, Beqaa).

The sole value in this entire madness is a near perfect illustration of tactical considerations, poor leadership and domestic politics getting the better of cold-blooded rational calculation of state interest.

[Update: watching Hezbullah spokesman on al Jazeerah, I found it interesting that in ranting on about Arab occupied lands he finessed the issue of Israel - i.e. cited Golan, Chebaa, Gaza, but not Israel qua Israel. Artful that was. Added further, caught on BBC World Service interview w Leb rep, who ostentatiously refused to take a bait to whinge on about Syria but was highly US critical]

Continue reading "Baalbek (Updated: 2 Aug)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:19 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 31, 2006

Gross Incompetence & Contempt: Blindness on Lebanon

Although the macabre dance that is the war in Lebanon continues a depressingly predictable shuffle, the utter dilettentism that is the current American administration's diplomatic efforts - although efforts almost grants their clumsy, amateurish statements and reactive myopia too much dignity - continue to be breath taking. This AM, after the fine little Qana Bis blowing up of little girls (unsportingly exceeding certain understandings), I find myself greeted by the news that the amazingly incompetent Rice - I do officially take back everything positive I said with respect to her - suddenly finding that the time is right for a ceasefire. I am not sure that circumstances more detrimental to the image of the Americans in the region could have been fabricated by an enemy (except perhaps a 'transformation' statement). Of course, to be fair, at least she had that modicum of sense to stop the "permanent conditions" as a "pre-condition" idiocy.

Continue reading "Gross Incompetence & Contempt: Blindness on Lebanon"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:36 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

July 26, 2006

Slowly, Slowly into the Morass We Return (Updated)

The agonising replay (is it farce this time or tragedy?) of 82 continues. The New York Times article Israel Finding a Difficult Foe in Hezbollah amply illustrates the idiocy that is this Guns of August replay.

It is hard to decide what is most depressing. The predictability of the slow, inching back into the morass only exited in 2000, the delusional commentary from America which seems to have utterly abandoned critical thought, or the certainty of nasty blow-back as time goes on in this utterly (except for Hizbullah) Pyrrhic battle.

Continue reading "Slowly, Slowly into the Morass We Return (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:18 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

July 25, 2006

Magical Thinking, Purely Wishful

North Korea. It lacks exactness, but that is the precise analogy to the utterly bizarre, divorced from reality, unrealistic and wishful thinking world in which US policy on Lebanon and Israel is occuring. Magical, wishful and eventually will be forced to meet hard reality. Sad that hundreds will die pointlessly in the process, but c'est la vie, ach ghdi ngoulek, larab fqet, hmir bla qma.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:13 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

July 24, 2006

Skillful Asymmetry & Spin (Israel-Lebanon Land War)

In the twilight realm that is the competing spin on the Israeli-Leb crisis, it is hard even to know where to begin, when our own yellow satire barely outdoes actual American commentary justifying civilian massacres.

However, I would suggest that the Superpower's bizarro-world approach to the crisis, infected as it is with utterly magical thinking as it reportedly is shopping for a 'coalition of the willing' [my term my dears] to "disarm" Hizbullah, and uniquely confirm its own allies as Quislings... [link restored]

The Financial Times, with fine understatement reports this evening that Rice ideas for peace disappoint in Beirut, although that may be about as much news as Israeli and Arab leaders don't see eye to eye.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:36 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

July 21, 2006

Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)

Although less impressive than the scenes you can catch of the Arab Sats, this Al Jazeerah arty (Arabic) Continued Criticisms of Israeli Hostilities Against Lebanon and Palestine / استمرار التنديد بالعدوان الإسرائيلي على لبنان وفلسطين conveys in pictures (and of course text) the Islamic world reaction after the Friday prayers. The demos shown on the telly in Amman, Cairo, and Damascus were particularly large relative to the security presence. The article also notes the khutub (sermons) in particular in Baghdad; oddly perhaps the Israelis will provide Iraqis an inter-ethnic rally point.

Continue reading "Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

July 19, 2006

America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary

I sometimes wonder what it is about American media that leads to quite such utterly delusional commentary on the Middle East. Following up on my initial gut reaction, some more thoughts on the utterly surreal American whanking. (see also Lounsbury)

Drawing on The Times commentary blog, Times News Desk: World comment: how does it end?:

Continue reading "America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:00 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

July 02, 2006

Jihadist Prudence: Gitmo Tribunal Decision

For those interested, a text of the Hamdan v. Rumsfeld decision can be found here. That's the very recent U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down the military tribunals President Bush established by Executive Order for prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The decision is a bit convoluted given that the Court had to first torture the interpretation of a very specific law which prohibited courts from hearing these habeas corpus petitions made by Gitmo prisoners. (The Court reasons that the prohibition doesn't apply to those petitions, such as Hamdan's, which had already been filed when that anti-habeas law was passed in 2005.) While I favor the overall result of the case, I do share dissenting Justice Thomas' pique at the majority's sleight of hand jurisprudence and their evasion of the application of plain language and common sense on that particular issue.

Continue reading "Jihadist Prudence: Gitmo Tribunal Decision"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:38 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

June 18, 2006

Somalia: Islamic Courts & Women's Progress

A quick note on a interesting arty in The Washington Post on the role of women in backing The Islamic Courts movement that seems to be well on its way to taking power in Somalia and displacing the "secular" warlords.

If there is one item that most at once irritates and amuses me about Western and American commentary specifically is the weird gullibility in the usage of "secular" versus "Islamist" - although in a sense it is relavatory of why secularism has or is failing in the MENA region and many parts of the Islamic world - where "secular" seems to mean "any corrupt bunch of idiots presently in power who are not overtly and ostentatiously 'Islamist' in political orientation."

If this is the "secularism" being offered, and indeed backed by the West and America specifically, does anyone think it should be suprising that, whatever bitter individuals like Hirsi Ali Magaan say for the consumption of the fearful Westerner, secularism is losing ground?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:36 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

May 23, 2006

Morocco The Model! (Or Our Superficial Stereotypes Are Poorly Informed)

I stumbled across a funny (to me) "model" arty in the ideo-rag (I am not a fan of ideological papers) The Weekly Standard after stumbling across this attempt at writing on Islam, Elsewhere in Islam, itself deserving in comment (acerbic but fair comment, as I think the arty needs a whack in the side of the head on some factual and interpretive issues, but it's at least an honest effort): The Moroccan Model: A beacon of hope in the Islamic world.

I am sure regular readers are aware I am a fan of the Maghreb generally and Morocco in particular (although I have a warm spot in my heart for Tunisia as well, and why not Libya and Algeria as well?), so perhaps I should receive a fannish article on Morocco warmly. There is certainly something to be said for noticing that the Islamic or even the Arab or even the Mediterranean Arab world consists of countries besides Egypt and Saudi Arabia. And some of the article I agree with or perhaps better, some of the article did not lead me to think of running the author over with a car to spare the world further ill-informed bad writing.

Continue reading "Morocco The Model! (Or Our Superficial Stereotypes Are Poorly Informed)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:40 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

May 13, 2006

Ahmadinejad's 1953 Reference: The Skeleton in the Regime's Closet Reaching Out?

As a followup to discussion of Mr. Ahmadinejad's love letter to George Bush, I want to note a specific reference he made in the letter. That reference is to the 1953 coup by the Iranian military that restored the Shah of Iran. That coup ousted Mohammed Mossadegh, a nationalist figure who had forced the Shah to retreat to exile, and who had led the nationalization of British oil-company operations in Iran. It is no secret that the US CIA played a heavy part in the events of the 1953 coup.

Continue reading "Ahmadinejad's 1953 Reference: The Skeleton in the Regime's Closet Reaching Out?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:06 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

May 02, 2006

America's great "success"

Government spin is always a wondrous thing, but rarely can one enjoy something so blatant as this:

Washington -- Thanks to the successes of the U.S.-led multinational counterterrorism effort, terror organizations are now smaller and more sophisticated, and more challenging than ever to bring to justice, says Ambassador Henry Crumpton, coordinator of the State Department’s counterterrorism office.

"Successes" that make an enemy more dangerous and even harder to fight? Yep, we're all immensely thankful for those.

Continue reading "America's great "success""

Posted by secretdubai at 09:14 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

April 29, 2006

Dubai Buy II: Revenge of the UAE

According to the New York Times:

President Bush is expected on Friday to announce his approval of a deal under which a Dubai-owned company would take control of nine plants in the United States that manufacture parts for American military vehicles and aircraft, say two administration officials familiar with the terms of the deal. . . .

Continue reading "Dubai Buy II: Revenge of the UAE"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 22, 2006

Peace in our time?

Let us hope this means an end to talk of airstrikes and invasions. I do not much care for the idea of being caught up in the Gulf's fourth shooting war since 1980.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 02:58 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

April 21, 2006

Communications: Arab Media, American Officials, how often shall the twain meet?

Our fine friend, the Father of Aardvarks, has had an excellent series on US officials appearing on the ArabSats of late (as well as here re funding of Arab media, which merits some discussion here at 'Aqoul, if only so as to leave behind the odd convos about the Soviet Union).

However, the subject is in fact a serious one, which is the engagement of the US (and other Western officials) with the ArabSats and other Arab media. Abu Aardvark does concentrate exclusively on the US, but the question is a wider one. That being said, the US also has unique challenges in the area.

Continue reading "Communications: Arab Media, American Officials, how often shall the twain meet?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 28, 2006

Rumsfeld notices US particularly unskilled in agitprop.

I've noted this any number of times, so it's not particularly news, however I was touched when I saw Rumsfeld: U.S. Struggles to Combat Anti-American Propaganda.

Continue reading "Rumsfeld notices US particularly unskilled in agitprop."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:09 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

March 15, 2006

Observing Other Societies: The Limits of Direct Contact & Idealistic Presumptions

I sincerely hesitate to endorse the genially and serially bigoted John Derbyshire but this rather good column about how visitors and observers of other societies can be dangerously wrong is actually rather good. It does explain alot of presumptive well-intentioned idiocy(blogosphere and printosphere) that masquerades as informed commentary on MENA, and Iraq in particular.

Continue reading "Observing Other Societies: The Limits of Direct Contact & Idealistic Presumptions"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 10, 2006

DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back

I shall make this briefish note as the DPW fiasco continues to steam ahead. In many ways this is good for me personally as I expect increased in-region / non-US flows for MENA money. But it is bad for investment in the US, bad for US MENA policy and reveals as clearly as clear can be the deep vein of anti-Arab bigotry hiding beneath the surface in the United States. A loss for moderation, a loss for state security interests and a loss for economic efficiency and investment in key assets. Yes, bravo to ignorant know-nothing racist jingoism. This blows back not only to commerce, but also to our pious middle conversation, make no mistake about it.

Continue reading "DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:35 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

March 09, 2006

Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia

Well, the irrational forces of bigotted know-nothing nativism and bigotted Islamophobia won out, DPW has finally said fuck it, keep poorly run ports, we'll take the profitable parts of P&O , or as the statement went,

“Because of the strong relationship between the United Arab Emirates and the US, and to preserve that relationship...DP World will transfer fully the US operation of P&O Ports North America Inc to a United States entity,” Edward Bilkey, the company’s chief operating officer, said in a statement.

Only yesterday the head, Mr Sharaf,

acknowledged ... that the US facilities were a small part of the deal and less profitable than other P&O container terminals. His remarks came as the White House appeared to soften its support for the deal and the House of Representatives pressed ahead with plans to block the transaction.

It is also of note that private equity groups, smelling blood in the water,

have approached DP World about buying the US operations, people familiar with the matter said. Industry observers said logical candidates included Blackstone and Macquarie, the Australian bank.

Well, mark one of up for the forces of blind bigotry and irrational anti-Arab xenophobia with all the dark hand waving about "connexions" and "associations" and the utter inability to distinguish between Saudiyah and the rest of the Arab world.

Continue reading "Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:08 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Bye, Bye Dubai Buy: DPW Bows Out of US Leases

Dubai Ports World (DPW), the United Arab Emirates firm that bought a British ports operating company which owned operating leases in some USA ports, has just agreed to relinquish those interests. This will probably end a political firestorm that {irony}had absolutely nothing to do with anti-Arab or anti-Muslim xenophobia, ignorance, racism, or other factors.{/irony} It is not clear what it could be that DPW is getting in exchange for divesting itself of about 10% of its newly acquired assets, but, if {irony} US Senator Chuck Schumer is right: Could it be . . . Satan?* {/irony}

"This is obviously a promising development, but the devil's in the details," he said. "Those of us who feel strongly about this issue believe that the U.S. part of the British company should have no connection to the United Arab Emirates or DP World."

*Apologies for possibly obscure reference to a catchphrase of an old character on USA "Saturday Night Live".

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:41 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

March 06, 2006

Poll: Oh My Iraq, Civil War (ho hum)

In the news today is the stunning, shocking news, that, ahem, Iraq is sliding towards outright civil war (according the sharply sensitive and informed American people) I simply thought this should be an opportunity to say, well, no kidding:

Continue reading "Poll: Oh My Iraq, Civil War (ho hum)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:00 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

March 05, 2006

Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)

Sadly my work is distracting me from the fun of the ongoing Bigotted Know Nothing Nativist Ignoramus Mob Madness surrounding DPW's takeover of UK's P&O and the incidental acquisition of the operating leases for port operations at six major US ports (although in the UK and globally sanity has prevailed*), I wanted to augment my dear friend and colleague, Secret Dubai's post on Israeli support for Dubai and DPW with specific reference to the Israeli shipping line Zim's statement of support; I should say it comes as no surprise to anyone with experience in the region that some Israelis would step forward on this, even in a politically delicate situation - not so oddly it is the moderates on all sides trying to do business that know each other.

Continue reading "Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:57 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 25, 2006

Right Punditocracy Defends UAE Port Deal

Not to sully Aqoul too much with USA domestic blustery, but it appears some of the heavy weight right punditocracy is weighing in against knee-jerk opposition to the Dubai Ports World indirect purchase of US ports operations via its purchase of a British company's interests.

Bill O'Reilly: "For now, the cold truth is that the U.S.A. will not win the war on terror without the help of nations like the United Arab Emirates. We simply cannot afford to fire that nation. If we lose these people, we'll lose the war."

Lawrence Kudlow: "This whole brouhaha surrounding the Bush administration’s green-light to a United Arab Emirates company slated to manage six major U.S. ports has nothing to do with protecting homeland security. Allow me to give it its proper name: Islamophobia."

Continue reading "Right Punditocracy Defends UAE Port Deal"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:17 PM | Comments (25) | TrackBack

February 19, 2006

Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger

The emerging US controversy over Dubai Port World (an atrocious name I may add, even DP World is bad - hereafter at 'Aqoul, DPW) buying out historic UK port operator P&O - which incidentally includes a portfolio of US assets.

That unfortunate fact - a portfolio of US assets, which is to say management interests in six US ports on the United States Eastern Sea Board - has occasioned the exposure of a vein of ugly sentiment and public commentary, as well as typical for the "blogosphere" blind and ill-informed reaction. Another confirmation that Right and Left blog authors’ sneering with respect to the real media is badly misplaced.

This post – which will be updated and moved forward as I develop it – is intended to correct the poorly-informed xenophobic knee-jerking on Left and Right.

(I note in the interim that the fine American habit of turning everything into a lawsuit has emerged already as Maimi "Firm Sues to Block Foreign Port Takeover" per the WP, which pimps the security fallacy.)

Continue reading "Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:00 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack

February 17, 2006

MENA Investment & FDI: Oh my, they control our ports (Updated: Dubai & US Ports)

Foreign direct investment often provokes among the less than economically literate frightened reactions about loss of control - sometimes justified but in general, not. That politicians exploit tribal fears of foreigners controlling the jewels of the nation (whichever nation) is perhaps not surprising. It is always depressing. As we pass through a small storm of Islamic versus Western tensions, it is not surprising that the forces of unreason, emotive fear sweeping MENA, etc. have had an influence.

[Update: related post chez my Lounsbury den of iniquity, with respect to blog commentary and xenophobia, a small obs and question posed.]

[Update II: My coyness aside, a discussion of the Dubai Port World - US Ports issue broke at at the above commentary linked at Lounsbury - after some obligatory beating of a sensless commentator sensless.]

Continue reading "MENA Investment & FDI: Oh my, they control our ports (Updated: Dubai & US Ports)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:56 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 16, 2006

Democracy as a Weapon

Recently there has been a fair bit of handwringing over both the Hamas victory in the Palestinian territories and the Muslim Brotherhood’s strong showing in Egypt’s parliamentary elections. US policymakers are likely not pleased by the fact that Islamist MPs outnumber secular ones by nearly two to one in Iraq, and that early hopefuls such as Ahmad Chalabi’s Iraqi National Congress bloc failed to secure a single seat in recent elections.

In this context, it is mildly disturbing to see Farhat Asaad, a Hamas spokesman, point out this uncomfortable truth:

"First, I thank the United States that they have given us this weapon of democracy. But there is no way to retreat now. It's not possible for the U.S. and the world to turn its back on an elected democracy."

Continue reading "Democracy as a Weapon"

Posted by eerie at 09:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Propaganda, Iraq and Gaming - and Future Funds

Sadly I can not comment on this, other than to share the story and note that it confirms my observation months back that the Lincoln Group story was not a dark 'Neo Con' tale but one of dilletantes.

Quick Rise for Purveyors of Propaganda in Iraq

It is of course illustrative of the general problem with the Bush Administration's efforts in Iraq and MENA. Clumsy cronyism with amateurish dilletantes. A bit of cronyism here and there will happen. Human beings are human. The sins of the Bush Administration lie in their lack of competence in executing even cronyism, not as the simple minded Left would have it, in dark Right wing plots. A pity, I would enjoy a competent if unpleasant US government in world affaires. An incompetent, bumbling, often cretinously self-deluded US Government makes me life harder, and I don't enjoy that.

At least I can add that the Fund for the Future, that much vaunted initiative announced at the G8 meeting in Dubai is in fact a quietly dead letter for the moment. Ms Cheney got her panties all wet too soon. Perhaps the idea may get reworked to something vaguely rational.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:33 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 15, 2006

Maghreb & Rumsfeld (Updated)

Following up on my earlier post on Rumsfeld and his commenton the Maghreb, a somewhat clearer article from FT on the trip:

Rumsfeld treads warily to enlist north Africans in war against terrorism

A bit of commentary on the idiocies (required in large part, but still idiocies):

Continue reading "Maghreb & Rumsfeld (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:12 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism

I am not the biggest fan of the US Administration and its Middle East policy, that is certain. Indeed, I rather consider them a bunch of congenital and serial incompetent bunglers whose policies may be described with Talleyrand's "Worse than a crime, a blunder."

One might expect, then, I might be in agreement with the opinions voiced by the Democratic party opposition in this article from Reuters:

US bungles Middle East policy, lawmakers tell Rice
By Sue Pleming

Well, I am not. Sadly the criticism, rather than being well-founded, is largely based on the same kind of simple-minded magical thinking and wishful-thinking-as-analysis that has led the Bush Administration astray so very badly so many times. Criticism about Hamas rather than Fatah winning the elections in Palestine, for example. As if the US has a magic wand to wave to make the 'good guys' of the moment win (or forgetting that using such wands that do exist to achieve 'victory' for one's favoured side can be rather Pyrrhic, ending up with damaged goods).

Continue reading "Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

February 14, 2006

Working Diligently on Own Goals: Bringing Down Hamas

A report from The New York Times on supposed Israeli-US scheming to bring down the Hamas government and force new elections to allow a new Fatah/PLO government in is superbly disheartening if true. I certainly would suspect the Israelis of plotting the same as a certain percentage of Israeli officials have never quite gotten it into their heads that Palestinian society isn't completely manipulable quasi-tribal society Israel conquered in the 1960s, I would hope that the Bush Administration has a trifle more sense.

Continue reading "Working Diligently on Own Goals: Bringing Down Hamas"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:11 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 13, 2006

More Reasons Why Torture is a Bad Idea

Because junior military personnel can't be trusted to have the common sense to know when they are going to kill people, that's why:

The two Afghans were found dead within days of each other, hanging by their shackled wrists in isolation cells at the prison in Bagram, north of Kabul. An Army investigation showed they were treated harshly by interrogators, deprived of sleep for days, and struck so often in the legs by guards that a coroner compared the injuries to being run over by a bus...

But really, we can't blame the poor kids, can we, because how could they be expected to know what rules to follow?

Continue reading "More Reasons Why Torture is a Bad Idea"

Posted by evaluna at 06:55 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 12, 2006

Dim, Dim, Dim: Maghreb not an al Qaeda kinda place because...

Leaving aside the main thrust of the arty in question from The Financial Times (that being the US planning or considering to sell arms to the nasty little clique of generals in Algeria), the American Specialist in Idiotic Statements & Failed Occupations, had this to say about the Maghreb and al Qaeda:

Before arriving in Tunisia on Saturday, Mr Rumsfeld said he did not believe the Maghreb was a likely place for al-Qaeda to take root because extremism was not tolerated by the governments of Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria.

Bloody idiot. What a complete bloody idiot. Why has this completely deluded fucking incompetent egocentric bumbler not been axed? Or in the alternative, how long can the American policy establishment continue its deluded focus on States alone?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:54 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Morocco: Democracy, Facile Journo Idiocy on Moderation and Islamism

As a general matter, English language materials on the Maghreb almost never fail to annoy me. Here The Washington Post manages to do so: Feud With King Tests Freedoms In Morocco.

Having long had ... how to put it? Contact? Yes, contact with the group in question (long story, goes back a long ways), Adl wal Ihsane and been familiar with the Yassines, I have rather mixed feelings about the conflict described in the article. On one hand, being generally in favour of bringing Islamist groups into politics, I am generally in favour of engagement with Adl wa Ihsane. On the other hand, this particular dispute and the disingenous spin the Yassines are using rather annoys - well more the gullible lapping up of the same in certain anglophone quarters rather annoys.

Continue reading "Morocco: Democracy, Facile Journo Idiocy on Moderation and Islamism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:41 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 07, 2006

In a Nutshell: Problems in US Guiding MENA

In USA political lingo, the author of the comment quoted below is a "paleocon" and not a neocon, and he is English not American in origin, but his observation fairly and honestly renders a mentality revealing why it is more likely than not that any effort at MENA management by people over here (USA) is going to hit a fundamental snag, or two, or three. The commentt does appear in the main blog of a leading pro-Administration neoconnish mag. And I can assure it is an honest assessment of far broader passive sentiment, but more bluntly expressed:

The lead story was about a ship disaster in the Red Sea. From the headline picture, it looked like a cruise ship. I therefore assumed that some people very much like the Americans I went cruising with last year were the victims. I went to the news story. A couple of sentences in, I learned that the ship was in fact a ferry, the victims all Egyptians. I lost interest at once, and stopped reading. I don't care about Egyptians

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:39 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

January 29, 2006

Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences

The election of Hamas has set off quite a lot of overdone hand wringing with respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and with respect to 'democracy promotion.'

I am going to ignore the I-P conflict as an endless toothache, although frankly in the medium term this is probably a boon as Hamas seems likely to be a more effective player than the corrupt and broken PLO/Fatah.

Rather, a few words on democracy promotion in the Middle East and North Africa.

The first words are, I am no fan of it, and frankly largely do not believe in it on the terms that it is pimped to the general public, etc. However, the handwringing post-Hamas victory requires some comment.

Continue reading "Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:03 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

January 26, 2006

Palestine: Hamas

The results appear to give Hamas a strong electoral position, which is not surprising if one had one's ears to the ground - despite the Bush Administration apparently sad and Johnny come lately intervention on the side of the sick old man, Fatah.

Here is the rub made clear, really democratic elections are going to produce these kinds of results. If one is going to pimp simple minded democracy, than one has to ive with them. I have met enough Hamas people to suspect that they can in fact be dealt with. It's better optics in the end to try and fail, the exclude which merely feeds into Hamas cycle of popularity.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:53 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

January 19, 2006

US Diplo Service: Out into the Field She Says

This is very good news for the US diplo service, and long over-due. Will make my diplo friends very happy.

The Washington Post arty reports:

Diplomats Will Be Shifted to Hot Spots
Rice Also Plans to Elevate USAID Chief
By Glenn Kessler and Bradley Graham
Thursday, January 19, 2006

My first comment is that all the US diplos ...no, sorry all the US diplos that I have respected over the years... have bitterly complained about the current US diplo service organisation and disincentives to "get out" and as well master languages (yes, learn languages to get little brownie points on the fiscal scale, but not master, and why with the bizarro rotation system that puts rare Arabic speakers in Beijing for years at a time, and vice versa).

Those few US diplos who have defended the system rather struck me as bureaucrats, although usually far more straight up than the delightfully corrupt ones I liked, like my EU colleagues

Continue reading "US Diplo Service: Out into the Field She Says"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:40 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 12, 2006

US Military, Cultural Blindness, and Iraq Failure [Updated 12 January 2006: excellent FT expansion]

This article seems to have attracted little attention, for all that it has some amusing observations as well as indicative responses from US Mil: Briton criticises US Army for cultural ignorance, moralistic self-righteousness, unproductive micromanagement, unwarrented optimism - in short, very typically American "can do" self delusion that typified across the board failure by CPA-Iraq.

However, backward looking is less important than forward. Forward is the US Army/US DoD/US Mil reaction to what I found to be well-placed criticism I heard (differently framed) from my US Mil amigos. Not for dislike of their troopies, in frustration of the lack of prepration of said troopies for the real problems - inability to pull out of the entrenched frameworks. I wrote early on that I feared this. Sadly, it came out as I thought.

Update: The Financial Times as a somewhat better article on the underlying article (which I have now skimmed in its original):

British officer blisters US Army in Iraq critique
By Reuters
Published: January 12 2006 09:15

While largely of the same thrust, it does add a few more easily accessible comments which I will add below.

Continue reading "US Military, Cultural Blindness, and Iraq Failure [Updated 12 January 2006: excellent FT expansion]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:34 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

January 11, 2006

On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,

Via our dear friend, Father of Aardvarks 'a comment on Gerecht on Iraqi payola', found 'Hearts and Minds' in Iraq: As History Shows, Ideas Matter More Than Who Pays to Promote Them leads me to make a comment on influence and media from a business standpoint.

Continue reading "On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:30 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

January 09, 2006

Bremer Speaks on Iraq: The Buck Stops Over There Somewhere

The Guardian reports that "Paul Bremer, who led the US civilian occupation authority in Iraq after the 2003 invasion, has admitted that the Americans 'didn't really see' the threat coming from insurgents in the country." Shoot, I did, and I'm an American; and so did lots of others. Meanwhile, "he also criticised President George Bush and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, saying they had not listened to his concerns about the quality of Iraq's army, and that ultimately the White House bore responsibility for decisions that had led to the current violence."

I leave it to those with better inside and up close knowledge, some of whom are not far from this very blogspace, to evaluate the rest.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:56 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

December 20, 2005

On Iraq, Elections, Spying and US Media Coverage

Being back in the land of tubby supersized people is reminding me what completely atrocious news coverage is available in the US broadcast media. The shrieking exageration that seems to be the baseline for any and all stories is painful to watch.

Truly painful. It doesn't seem particularly ideologically focused, despite the endless whinging I have read online in blogs and the like (which one may take, including I may add this one as mere navel gazing, and the pretension among some in the "blogosphere" that they are bringing new standards is absurd and laughable... although given broadcast media in the US of A....). Rather, it strikes me as simply bad professional practice.

Continue reading "On Iraq, Elections, Spying and US Media Coverage"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:26 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 18, 2005

Yemen, Democracy and Stupidity

U.S. Ideals Meet Reality in Yemen
By David Finkel
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, December 18, 2005; A01

An interesting if excessively personalised article on the ludicrous Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) initiative and other US Gov "democratisation" efforts in the MENA region.

Continue reading "Yemen, Democracy and Stupidity"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:53 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

December 13, 2005

Joseph Nye the PR Guy: "Soft Power" in Iraq

Just saw Joseph Nye speak on the subject of “Can Democracy Defeat Terrorism?”, a talk which ended up being mostly about Iraq and what U.S. policy should be in that neck of the woods. "Soft power" is his term for what in other fields of endeavor is sometimes called “hearts and minds,” or maybe “public relations”- the idea that convincing people of the merit of your position by diplomatic means is more effective than doing so by force, and at a lower cost.

Continue reading "Joseph Nye the PR Guy: "Soft Power" in Iraq"

Posted by evaluna at 11:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

December 03, 2005

Torture, U.S. Foreign Policy, and International Law: The Truth Can Sting

I had the opportunity this week to hear John Yoo, the author of the infamous U.S. Justice Department torture memo speak in justification of physical mistreatment of alleged Al-Qaeda operatives because they are ostensibly not protected by the Geneva Conventions, debate a prominent human rights law expert on the legality of this practice under U.S. and international law. (Disclosure: I’ve known Doug Cassel professionally for years, and in a prior life was privileged to provide interpretation services for his expert testimony in political asylum cases.) This memo has been used by the Bush administration to justify interrogation methods which any normal person with morals would agree constitute mistreatment of alleged Al-Qaeda detainees in Afghanistan and Guantánamo.

Continue reading "Torture, U.S. Foreign Policy, and International Law: The Truth Can Sting"

Posted by evaluna at 10:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

December 02, 2005

Guantanamo: Biographies of prisoners

The fact that this report appears in the professional journal of the US military may deprive it of credibility in some corners and augment it in others. But the well-written and edited account gives an overview of the self-reported biographies of about 600 young men held prisoner in the controversial US detention facility at Guantanamo, Cuba, most of whom were pre-9/11 volunteers for jihad and were the trainees and foot soldiers in various Afghan camps run by al-Qaeda and friends. Although the author-analyst at times strays into the silly and stereotyped (the last paragraphs get downright stilted, for example, just ignore), she provides a compassionate and thorough view.

Some interesting things of note:

Continue reading "Guantanamo: Biographies of prisoners"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:05 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

November 20, 2005

Surfacing on Iraq

Having begun this weekend with some fine work on valuation documents for Gulf area firms, a little bit of coughing up blood, and the tedious work of creating a matrix to figure out what the bloody hell I have among pile of bloody Arabic financial reporting, I thought I might take a moment to comment on the chatter about Iraq and the US policy optoins.

Frankly, most of the discussion rather strikes me as surreal navel gazing delusionally disconnected from the evident reality in Iraq.

As I have been indicating for a rather long time, Iraq long ago (say early 2004) entered into a 'Lebanese logic' which rather made the creeping civil war situation in Iraq, that is clear for anyone with eye to see, inevitable.

Now, the simple minded I suppose expect(ed) this to explode all at once. It has not and will not. Rather, as in Lebanon, it will creep forward in fits and starts until it is undeniably there for even the most deluded. The self segregation, the inter-community killings and hardening of lines despite decades of friendship, etc., that is already ongoing and there is frankly nothing substantial in terms of Iraqi dynamics counter-weighing this. Iraqi dynamics are all that count, not Americans running around claiming idiotic body counts, not hand waving pseudo-political excercises masquerading as democracy to please the gullible Westerners who think such things have meaning in such circumstances, not anything but Iraqi social dynamics.

There is, in short, nothing that is substantively running against the power dynamic of the hard men with guns. Nothing, period, regardless of the idiotic self-deluded happy talk I have seen now for three fucking years running. Good news from Iraq, indeed. Even in the depths of any civil war one can find "good news" - it's intelligent analysis that gets one understanding.

Continue reading "Surfacing on Iraq"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:37 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

November 08, 2005

US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]

The item I have refered to in the past is now public:
A Ludicrously Bad Idea

The key item here is this:

"The U.S. wants to see some success before further expansion. It envisions attracting board members with the clout -- names being bandied about include Jack Welch and Robert Rubin -- to get Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak on the phone to complain, for example, that he needs to free up pharmaceutical prices if a private drug industry is to flourish in Egypt."

Fucking stupid ass concept. Getting your fund involved in these kind of politics is a disastrous way to invest.

UPDATE: Arty text below with extended commentary.

Continue reading "US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

October 28, 2005

Ahmadinejad and Israel

What's going on in Iran? First the country's president calls for Israel to be "wiped off the map." Naturally, this doesn't go down well at all internationally, with the Israelis going so far as to call for Iran's expulsion from the UN. So Iran's Moscow embassy issues a statement saying the president didn't mean to "speak up in such sharp terms," and we are reminded that such statements are made all the time during rallies but don't really mean anything.

So the new president made a stupid diplomatic error, not realizing his new position makes his words carry more weight. And after his country's ambassadors are summoned to various European capitals to explain their government's actions, all this will die down, right? So then why is Iran stupidly upping the ante by ordering its diplomats in Western countries to launch protests there against Europe's attitudes towards 'Zionist crimes'? My own take is that Iran's foreign policy, more or less directionless since Ahmadinejad came to power a few months ago, is starting to go down the tubes.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:18 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

October 24, 2005

Iftaar at the State Department

Secretary of State Rice is hosting an iftaar dinner "to celebrate Ramadan and honor the significance of reflection, generosity, and compassion shared by all religions."

I hope Karen Hughes shows up. She did a marvelous job in Indonesia the other day:

"My state of Texas is very big," she told the students. "So you can imagine my surprise to learn that your country, Indonesia, is three times bigger than my big state of Texas."

Ah well, at least she's a mom.

Posted by eerie at 10:35 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

October 19, 2005

Iraq: Lowered Expectations

I’ll be honest with you, nobody around here wants to write about Iraq. Sure, the country has the trappings of democracy: political parties, elections and a draft constitution that may soon be ratified by popular referendum. It's certainly useful to ramble on about these "accomplishments" when uncomfortable questions about troop withdrawals come up, but do they really reflect democratic development? What do a bunch of purple fingers mean in the face of growing insurgency, ethnic/sectarian attempts to maximize factional interests, a constitution that favors federalism and obvious signs that religious conservatives are now a dominant political force?

There are a good number of governments that do not represent citizens or uphold individual rights in spite of their constitutions, referenda, elections and political parties (Miss Mabrouk has a nice summary of Egypt's election shenanigans). Just because Iraqis have gone to the polls a few times doesn’t mean they have a functioning democracy or even a self-sustaining government, for that matter. Iraq’s financial situation (or put another way, its utter dependence on the US taxpayer) is a useful example of non-viability. FT notes that the Iraqi government’s reliance on US assistance has resulted in a disincentive to curb its own expenditures:

Some US officials are also arguing that the US has to start disengaging from its role as Iraq's economic prop. This push has alarmed defence contractors, which are lobbying against such a move.

The $10bn (€8.3bn, £5.7bn) of US taxpayers' money spent so far on economic reconstruction has had limited effect, officials and analysts say, in part because of the insurgency and high insurance costs. The aid also serves to discourage the Iraqi government from making tough decisions, such as cutting back food and fuel subsidies that consume close to 40 per cent of their budget, which is projected to run a $6bn deficit.

Continue reading "Iraq: Lowered Expectations"

Posted by eerie at 11:06 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 17, 2005

Dar Fur (aka Darfur): Round and round and round again

I see there is another “Dar Fur” attention thing going on, wherein bloggers who a year ago or two had no bloody clue as to where the bloody hell the place is or who the Fur are (of course they still don’t – for all that the history of the Sultanate of Fur is actually rather intriguing) pontificate about the issue.

At the risk of being the perennial naysayer – well actually why not? Naysayers are useful, we drag the deluded back to reality. – let me again comment on Dar Fur (or if you must, Darfur).

Continue reading "Dar Fur (aka Darfur): Round and round and round again"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:58 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

October 13, 2005

Radio Sawa - Morocco: The Legal Status Scandal (small addition)

Some news earlier this week reminded me of a small tiff that arose in the past few months between the Moroccan "Higher Broadcasting Authority" (known by its French acronym, HACA) and Radio Sawa and the US government by extension. Something for Aardvarks in general I should suppose.

The issue revolves (or revolved if the reports are right) around the status of HACA as the independent media regulator (this is relatively recent but nevertheless the case for a while now), and the requirement that broadcasters obtain regular licenses from HACA by August 2005.

As the sharp reader might have divined, Sawa did not.

In effect, the United States took the position that Sawa needed no license as it is in fact a governmental agency covered by a bilateral accord authorising the Voice of America.

Continue reading "Radio Sawa - Morocco: The Legal Status Scandal (small addition)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:28 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Two Jews, Three Opinions, Part II: Day of Atonement Thoughts on Jewish Culture, Subculture, and Prejudice

[warning: much anecdotal musing ahead]

So here I am on this fine Yom Kippur, engaging in a bit of anthropological fieldwork among my extended family, a bunch of relatively liberal, politically aware Reform-ish American Jews in South Florida. In some ways we are very typical of our subculture(s), and in some ways we are not, but to be sure, there is a wide spectrum of opinion around here, and most of it is expressed passionately and frequently. My family is warm, loud, always interrupting each other, generous, and all-around decent people, and make frequent attempts to be openminded. Mom is even loving the biracial grandchild, in spite of her various complaints over the years that my sister (who basically hasn't dated a white guy since high school) is a reverse racist.

However, if I have to have one more discussion about how all Muslims are not out to exterminate the Jews, I might do something very un-Yom-Kippur-like, and really have something to atone for. I try to cut my aunt some slack - after all, she has worked for the past 20+ years at a grade school affiliated with a Conservative synagogue, and she gets the pro-Israel, anti-Muslim propaganda during most of her waking hours. But sheesh, she was just mentioning that she'd been thinking of donating to Pakistan earthquake relief, until her good friend and co-worker (a rabidly Zionist Israeli; one wonders, indeed, why she lives in the U.S.) mentioned maybe she shouldn't do that, because, you know, we wouldn't want to support people who want to wipe out the Jews.

Continue reading "Two Jews, Three Opinions, Part II: Day of Atonement Thoughts on Jewish Culture, Subculture, and Prejudice"

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October 09, 2005

On Arabic, Translation, Training and Spying

Being conflicted as to whether this is a purely personal rant or something of wider interest, but on rereading thinking I may have accidentally said something of wider interest, let me refer 'Aqoul readers to Lounsbury - 'Aqoul and a small post on issues related to traning in Arabic, translation, and spying.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 07, 2005

Arab Media - Arab Sats: Father of Aardvarks (edited)

I would be remiss not to draw attention (although I suspect most 'Aqoul readers are already aware) to Abu Aardvark's article Watching al-Jazeerah.

In that context let me add a few observations:

Continue reading "Arab Media - Arab Sats: Father of Aardvarks (edited)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:47 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

October 06, 2005

Arab Radio

Our friend The Father of Aardvarks has an interesting little piece drawing attention to a new report on Arab radio from the Arab Advisors Group; a very solid media advisory group founded a few years back (I should disclose that I know one of the founders, and have done business with him).

Our fine Father of Aardvarks, or Bou Aradvraak as I like to call him, largely concetrates on the public policy angle, which is important, but I find the business angle as interesting.

Continue reading "Arab Radio"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 18, 2005

Shadid on Iraq: A Contained Civil War?

Anthony Shadid's new book is out, and on TPM Cafe he gives a series of blog entries related to its content on Iraq. Here is one observation, of many, and I would solicit the Aqoul Brains Trust to give us a view of its accuracy and military-geographic-demographic rationale:

On the question of civil war, I don't see a lot of forces working against its intensification. To be honest, there are few national voices in Iraq these days. Ayad Allawi could be suggested as one, but I don't see him playing too great a role right now. Oddly, Muqtada Sadr is probably the figure who most plays up a nationalist discourse. That's in addition to his brand of sometimes messianic, populist religion. Beyond that, it is remarkable the degree to which politics are pronounced in communal terms. If a civil war worsened, I don't necessary see a conflagration. I think you could have an ostensible government in Baghdad, with ministries and embassies around it. In the hinterland, you could have militias staking out turf: Badr, Sadr and so on vying for influence in parts of Baghdad and the south, elements of the insurgency laying claims to land in the west and center, the Kurdish parties competing in the north, with varying degrees of intensity. Their points of intersection would be explosive, though not necessarily numerous.

I suspect he is mostly correct, though I do question whether parts of Baghdad are aptly described as "hinterland".

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:14 PM | Comments (21) | TrackBack

September 05, 2005

Willing. Unwilling. The Pretension of Interest in Democracy & The Middle East

From our dear friend Pratike, who made the error of going to Egypt and Cairo specifically to learn Arabic and thus condemn himself to speaking with a bufoonish accent for the rest of his day, a note on the 'elections' and the pretension that the US Administration is interested in democracy in the MENA region:

His quote from a Washington Post op ed:

Perhaps there is concern that too much pressure on Mubarak might produce a victory by the Muslim Brotherhood, the most popular Egyptian opposition party that has been outlawed by the government. That's a risk, of course, but if the Bush administration isn't willing to let Islamists, even radical Islamists, win votes in a fair election, then Bush officials should stop talking so much about democracy and go back to supporting the old dictatorships. It was precisely that kind of logic -- that friendly dictators are preferable to potentially radical alternatives -- that helped produce so much radicalism during the Cold War and, more recently, a healthy movement of Middle East terrorists.

Well, welcome to reality children. What news.

Continue reading "Willing. Unwilling. The Pretension of Interest in Democracy & The Middle East"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:30 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

September 03, 2005

New Orleans

Katrina's aftermath is dominating North American news. A somber cartoon from An Nahar newspaper (via Tom Scudder via Beirut Spring):

Posted by eerie at 04:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 31, 2005

The Bridge Stampede: Iraq, Chaos and Security

The deadly accident today in Iraq, where several hundreds (and indeed perhaps near a thousand) pilgrims were killed in a stampede over a bridge over the Tigris calls for some reflexion and comment. (See The Financial Times Up to 700 Iraqis feared dead in bridge stampede

Well nigh a thousand dead. Certainly it is rightly the prime lead on the Arab Sats (excuding CNBC which weirdly is trying to reproduce American dot com day-trader obsessiveness over the Saudi stock market) and the tragedy, the sheer pathos of the event - a stampede based on a false (or who knows, perhaps not....) rumour of a suicide bomber that ends up killing far more than any single suicide bomber (ex of course a truck or car bomber) might.

(As an aside, does that ridiculous Fox News call these Iraqi/Arab on Iraqi bombers 'homocide bombers' in its continued flaunting of absolute illiteracy?)

Continue reading "The Bridge Stampede: Iraq, Chaos and Security"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:54 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 29, 2005

Iraq: Lessons from History

Wilson was a confident and bullish colonial official who was wrestling with a serious dilemma. How, under intense international scrutiny, could he control a well-armed society that had become increasingly resentful about the occupation of their country? Wilson himself never found satisfactory answers to this question. On July 2, 1920, a revolt, or thawna, broke out along the lower Euphrates. Fueled by a population resentful at the heavy-handed approach of the occupying forces, the rebellion quickly spread across the south and center of the country. Faced with as many as 131,000 armed opponents, the British army did not regain full control until six months later in February 1921. The cost in lives and money of the revolt made the continued occupation of Iraq very unpopular with British public opinion. It also cost Wilson his job. From 1921 onward the British continually strove to cut the costs of their presence in Iraq. Ultimately the decision was made to extricate themselves from he country as quickly as possible. The result was a failure to build a liberal or even a stable state in Iraq. (Toby Dodge - Inventing Iraq)

This passage gets creepier every time I read it. I’ve mentioned Toby Dodge’s book before, partly for historical value and partly as a cautionary tale for people who can’t grasp the complexities associated with “remaking” a region. The reason I am flogging this dead horse yet again is a recent Washington Post article about the US struggle to foster a liberal democracy in the face of strong ethnic and sectarian pressures:

Continue reading "Iraq: Lessons from History"

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August 26, 2005

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)

Added Thoughts on Private Equity for Devleopment MENA

I neglected to touch on a few key points in my original note, below are further thoughts on private equity and economic development for the MENA region.

Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Economist - a fine arty on Jihadis as Anarchists

A bit late I admit, but I get my Economist a week late, and very much prefer the print edition to online reading. Being primative.

The article in question:
For jihadist, read anarchist

I very much enjoyed this as this is something that I have been making as a point in several conversations online, in regards to the neglected similarities to the radical anararchist movement of the end of the 19th century in Europe and the Americas.

Continue reading "Economist - a fine arty on Jihadis as Anarchists"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:48 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 25, 2005

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development

A few weeks ago I raised the subject of emerging markets private equity in particular in the context of US Gov efforts to utilize the vehicle to further its political / development goals in the Middle East – North Africa region. One of our online world colleagues if you will posed a question to me as to what the “The Lounsbury” approach would be, in the context of my expressed skepticism in regards to the investment vehicle / definition chosen by The Overseas Private Equity Corporation.

Ironically (well not really) at present I am working on materials closely related to just this question, although not really in regards to development – but as much of the private equity activity in region has been international development institution driven there is a clearly overlap. Now, having sent drafts of my materials off for comment I can take a moment to sketch out some preliminary thoughts on the issue that will be the basis for future comment.

First, my assumptions, based on personal experience in the region and in the “sector” if we can call it that. Again, these are my a priori assumptions and principes.

Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:34 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 22, 2005

Critiquing the Arab World (update link)

A small note of reflection on critiques of the Arab world, Daniel Drenzer’s blog, the weaknesses of the commentary and other points raised.

[An interjection, on reading this AM’s comments and in particular Britt’s mendacious reply, I have to say I was too generous, the fellow is in fact a political hack interested in talking points, not getting up to speed, pity that, but more below.]

Continue reading "Critiquing the Arab World (update link)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:52 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

August 20, 2005

What Next in Iraq

Ted Barlow at Crooked Timber discusses what can be done about the situation in Iraq:

Orin Kerr recently proposed a useful simplified framework of possible outcomes in Iraq:

1. The U.S. beats back the insurgency and democracy flowers in Iraq (call this the “optimistic stay” scenario),
2. The U.S. digs in its heels, spends years fighting the insurgency, loses lots of troops, and years later withdraws, leading to a bloody and disastrous civil war (the “pessimistic stay” scenario);
3. The U.S. decides that it’s no longer worth it to stay in Iraq, pulls out relatively soon, and things in Iraq are about as best as you could hope for, perhaps leading to a decent amount of democracy (optimistic leave), and
4. The U.S. decides that it’s no longer worth it to stay in Iraq, pulls out soon, and plunges Iraq into a bloody and disastrous civil war with the bad guys assuming control eventually (pessimistic leave).

Speaking only for myself, I’m entirely confident that we could achieve outcome 4, believe that staying the course will continue to lead to outcome 2, and can scarcely imagine outcome 3. What about outcome 1? Is it achievable?

...

There’s a well-known prayer that asks for the courage to change the things that can be changed, the serenity to accept the things that cannot, and the wisdom to know the difference. I find myself short on all three.

I believe that Greg is right about the consequences of letting Iraq collapse into civil war. It’s terrible to contemplate. A civil war or a failed state could lead to tens of thousands of deaths, maybe more. It would be a moral travesty and a terrorist breeding ground. It would make a mockery of the goal, however idealistic, of transforming a bloody dictatorship into a stable, democratic, normal country. “Serenity” hardly seems like the appropriate response. When I look at the situation through the eyes of an idealistic war supporter, some of the vitriol is easier to understand; they’re appalled at war opponents who would abandon the people of Iraq to this fate.

So it seems unthinkable to declare victory and come home. Having said that, “what we must do” has to be constrained by “what we can do.” Imagine a village living in the shadow of a live volcano. Serenity is not an appropriate response to the threat of an eruption, but neither is a program of virgin sacrifice.

There's more, and links to much more, and a good discussion in the comments section.

Posted by tomscud at 07:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 19, 2005

Annoying grey ships at Aqaba piss me off: Shall Fire rockets at them. (US ships attacked) - updated

Well, this news in the AM bemused me:

Missile Fired at U.S. Navy Ship in Jordan

It reports two missiles (in fact, it appears mortars, not quite the same thing, Mr. Halaby, or perhaps Katyusha rockets..... well something explosive in any case) were fired at US warships at Aqaba harbor.

[update: 17h00 GMT below]

Suppose this will do wonders for tourism. Might clear out the harbor though, reduce the backlog.

Continue reading "Annoying grey ships at Aqaba piss me off: Shall Fire rockets at them. (US ships attacked) - updated"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 16, 2005

Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes

A somewhat quick note building off of a comment by the esteemed Nadezhda in regards to my rapid note on a new US Gov private equity fund _{(also with more rough perso comments at Lounsbury )} backed by the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a US parastatal investment insurance and financing house whose main line of business is political risk insurance on US direct investments in risky locales.

I have been intending - and still intend to - write some commentary on this specific issue of private equity (or in general equity finance) in the MENA region, but I thought some quick notes on this OPIC backed private equity fund for the MENA region are in order, and in response to some notes by Nadezhda - whose name I have learned to spell now.

Continue reading "Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 14, 2005

But do they really mean it...? Or get it? This time?

From the Washington Post:

"What we expected to achieve was never realistic given the timetable or what unfolded on the ground," said a senior official involved in policy since the 2003 invasion. "We are in a process of absorbing the factors of the situation we're in and shedding the unreality that dominated at the beginning.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:20 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 11, 2005

Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced

At the risk of descending into flackery or something approaching it, I thought a brief comment here might be fun.

OPIC BOARD APPROVES $75 MILLION FOR MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA FUND

Certainly this plays into my personal interests.

[Updated with correction below]
[Update with a question: Is there a debate to be had here regarding using such tools for acheiving a policy goal?]

Continue reading "Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 09, 2005

Iraq - Reconstruction - Knowing when to get out of the way

This article from The Washington Post (Op Ed actually) struck me as if not important a useful point of reflection for a moment:
Less Is More in Iraq
By Michael Rubin
Tuesday, August 9, 2005; Page A17

Let us leave aside Rubin's sketchy history in regards to Iraq as part of what one might properly and non-abusively call a "Neo Conservative" circle in Washington re Iraq (and his direct and personal contribution to the fiasco via his work with CPA-Iraq). Let us leave aside as well the question of whether a US draw down of troops is a good or bad thing (I might argue either way on any given day). Rather, merely look at the question of the US contractor presence.

Continue reading "Iraq - Reconstruction - Knowing when to get out of the way"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:50 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 04, 2005

On Terror, Tea Cups and Jumping - Re Conclusions

If I may permit myself a snide aside based on this article:
London Bombers Used Ordinary Materials, and in partial connexion with my own note, Tempests & Tea Pots regarding a rather overdone, hysteric to an extent and generally ridiculous and poorly informed online debate on terrorism.

Continue reading "On Terror, Tea Cups and Jumping - Re Conclusions"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 03, 2005

More Motion and Commotion in Central Asia: Of Refugees and Power Politics

In a not-so-startling turn of events in Central Asia, the Uzbek government has just given the U.S. military six months to vacate the Karshi-Khanabad air base, which has been used to support military operations in Afghanistan. This development might have been more surprising if it hadn’t come the day after 400 refugees from a May demonstration in Andijon, Uzbekistan, (which turned bloody when government troops fired on unarmed protestors) were relocated from neighboring Kyrgyzstan to Romania , after the U.N. High Commission on Refugees and the U.S. applied pressure to Kyrgyz officials not to return the refugees to Uzbekistan, where they would likely face persecution and torture.

Continue reading "More Motion and Commotion in Central Asia: Of Refugees and Power Politics"

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July 26, 2005

The Lounsbury Return: Iraq & Civil War

I'm back from a bloody long trip and quite beat. Regardless, a quick note to draw attention (via Juan Cole) to a New York Times article, cited at the billmon blog, discussing the new emergence of open discussion of the emerging civil war in Iraq. As longtime Lounsbury readers know, I called the "entry into the Lebanese logic" a year or so ago.

Continue reading "The Lounsbury Return: Iraq & Civil War"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:20 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

July 23, 2005

Another 9-11: Christmas for the Mojahedin-e Khalq?

According to former CIA agent turned journo, Philip Giraldi, Cheney has told STRATCOM to draw up a plan for responding to another major terrorist attack on the US with an assault on Iran. It'd be a full scale affair including "a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons." And, "As in the case of Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States."
The piece is featured in Aug 1 print edition of American Conservative Magazine

Hopefully, this is what Senator Kyl would call "over the top bluster" on Mr. Giraldi's part. If not, if there's some substance to this characterization of the plans, another tragic attack on the US could be the opening the Sazeman-e Mojahedin-e Khalq-e Iran have been waiting for. They may be able to leverage tragedy and their not insignificant support among various US political actors into an expense paid trip to the remains of Tehran.

Posted by Simon W. Moon at 12:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 20, 2005

On Iraq: The Question of the Army-in-training

Juan Cole printed a letter today from "Brian", who claims to be a former Australian army officer involved in the training of soldiers. Brian is not impressed with the training regimen in Iraq:

Continue reading "On Iraq: The Question of the Army-in-training"

Posted by tomscud at 05:46 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 19, 2005

Oh NOES, it's teh SEE EYE AY!

Being back in Jordan after a two-year absence has proven to be quite interesting. The amount of newly opened American chain stores are quite large, as are the amount of 'alternative' locally-owned bars and pubs. I've frequented the latter group quite a bit this past week, and have noticed an eerie amount of American folks hanging out among the upper-class Jordanian youth.

For instance, I noticed a tall man with a shaved head and well-built body sitting down alone at a table. This man could have been taken straight out of the military had he not been reading a book, cross-legged, while quietly drinking a glass of wine. I walked up to him and asked him what he was reading, and invited him over to our table. He ignored the question but introduced himself and walked over with me anyway. When he sat down I repeated the question, and he said: "I'm a writer." Intrigued, I asked him what sort of stuff he wrote. He responded with a vague answer, something along the lines of: "I write different things, for papers and stuff, and other things too."

Another incident occurred at the Jordanian Film Convention I attended a few nights ago. This man, J., claimed to work with an NGO "dealing with Iraq". He didn't know what NGO he was working for, however, or at least, that was his reponse when I asked him. After talking to a friend I found out that this guy actually interviewed Iraqi prisoners, but again, not much was known about the actual organization he worked for.

Now this is not going to be an analysis so much as a personal observation, or perhaps a 'word from the street' sort of thing. Tonight, another friend mentioned the abundence of Americans "studying Arabic" here in Jordan. Funnily enough, however, it seems that even after spending months "studying", none of these people could speak more than a few words or sentences. Furthermore, young Arabs who live here find themselves casually questioned by these foreigners about what they think of the war, the government, or Islam.

Continue reading "Oh NOES, it's teh SEE EYE AY!"

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July 15, 2005

In Defense of Ignorance: Pundita

The wise words of Pundita, noted moron and probable foreign policy wonk in Washington:

My position is don't try to understand by listening to the Europeans. The French went on and on about their experience in Algeria to explain why they were against the US invasion of Iraq. Hello, we're not the French...

And don't allow academics and well-meaning Europeans to terrorize us into thinking we require a scholarly grasp of the situation in the Middle East before we can formulate a correct approach.

Here is the full entry, for readers interested in seeing her "argument" in its entirety. Comments are not permitted on her blog, and if someone posts a refutation of her writing in their own journal, she quaintly refers to these entries as "letters", thereby escaping the obligation to link back to them during her own rebuttal.

The biggest irony I find in her writing is how much it resembles policy pieces written by British colonial officials, even as she complains about Europe's colonial baggage in the Middle East. Strong "Orientalist" slant, complete ignorance of subtleties in terms of religion, ethnicity, cultural/regional variations and recent history. Looking over Juan Cole's recent note on Iraqi casualties (an estimated 8,000 in the past 10 months, or 800 per month, likely excluding those killed by US military action), a ham-handed "screw research and/or informed decisionmaking, we're Americans!" strategy does not necessarily yield productive results in the short or long-term.

PS - Now that we're on the topic, watching The Battle of Algiers is useful for understanding both the French experience in Algeria and potential parallels with the US experience in Iraq. Lounsbury goes on about this film endlessly, even the Pentagon has screened it.

Posted by eerie at 02:08 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack