US Foreign Policy Archives

March 07, 2012

On Israel & its American tropes, re Iran

The Economist Blog on America has a wise comment, in Israel, Iran and America: Auschwitz complex | The Economist that is rather more intelligent the normal idiocy that is written about Israel

But Israel has even less control over its own destiny than Portugal or Britain do. The main reason is that, unlike those countries, Israel refuses to give up its empire. Israel is unable to sustain its imperial ambitions in the West Bank, or even to articulate them coherently. Having allowed its founding ideology to carry it relentlessly and unthinkingly into what Gershom Gorenburg calls an "Accidental Empire" of radical religious-nationalist settlements that openly defy its own courts, Israel is politically incapable of extricating itself. The partisan battles engendered by its occupation of Palestinian territory render it less and less able to pull itself free. It is immobilised, pinned down, in a conflict that is gradually killing it. Countries facing imperial twilight, like Britain in the late 1940s, are often seized by a sense of desperate paralysis. For over a decade, the tone of Israeli politics has been a mix of panic, despair, hysteria and resignation.

No one bears greater responsibility for the trap Israel finds itself in today than Mr Netanyahu. As prime minister in the late 1990s, he did more than any other Israeli leader to destroy the peace process. Illegal land grabs by settlers were tolerated and quietly encouraged in the confused expectation that they would aid territorial negotiations. Violent clashes and provocations erupted whenever the peace process seemed on the verge of concrete steps forward; the most charitable spin would be that the Israelis failed to exercise the restraint they might have shown in retaliating against Palestinian terrorism, had they been truly interested in progress towards a two-state solution. Mr Netanyahu believed that the Oslo peace agreements were a mirage, and his government's actions in the late 1990s helped make it true.

Having trapped themselves in a death struggle with Palestinians that they cannot acknowledge or untangle, Israelis have psychologically displaced the source of their anxiety onto a more distant target: Iran. An Iranian nuclear bomb would not be a happy development for Israel. Neither was Pakistan's, nor indeed North Korea's. The notion that it represents a new Holocaust is overstated, and the belief that the source of Israel's existential woes can be eliminated with an airstrike is mistaken. But Iran makes an appealing enemy for Israelis because, unlike the Palestinians, it can be fitted into a familiar ideological trope from the Jewish national playbook: the eliminationist anti-Semite.

I believe this hits the current situation head on - and also highlights the madness that this dead-end might pull in the last super-power into a mad bit of co-enablement and suidice pact (not nuclear holocaust, but security over-reaching touching off a Gulf region war that is not needed or useful, spiking oil prices into a deadly range) 

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The Sad Religious Spin on the Iranian fiasco

Watching the drumbeat relative to Iran, one can not but be reminded of the Iraq experience. I hope to God that the USA does not elect someone who will follow the drumbeat of war. It will be a disaster. This article is a wise one relative to the particular religous spin (and I think a sad statement on the state of American political discourse and thinking that this sort of thing may well work:  Bibi Netanyahu's Bible Story - Robert Wright - International - The Atlantic

Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave President Obama a copy of the book of Esther, which will be read in synagogues this week in observance of Purim. Esther tells the story of a Persian government that tries and fails to wipe out all the Jews in the Persian Empire. According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Netanyahu saw this as an occasion to generalize about Persians (or, as we call them today, Iranians). He told Obama, "Then, too, they wanted to wipe us out."

Here's a thought experiment: Suppose that an Arab or Iranian leader of Muslim faith met with President Obama and told him about some part of the Koran that alludes to conflict between Muhammad and Jewish tribes. For example, according to Muslim tradition, the Jewish tribe known as the Qurayzah, though living in Muhammad's town of Medina, secretly sided with Muhammad's enemies in Mecca. Suppose this Muslim said to Obama, "Then, too, the Jews were bent on destroying Muslims." What would our reaction be?

I think reactions would vary. Some people would say, "See, the Koran teaches Muslims to hate Jews!" Some would say, "Wow, this Muslim is looking really, really hard for reasons to keep hating Jews, isn't he?"

That second point, at least, would have some merit. After all, the Muslim could just as easily have pointed to parts of the Koran that say nice things about Jews--such as the part that says that God, in his "prescience," chose "the children of Israel ... above all peoples." Or the part that says that God "sent down the Torah" as "guidance to the people" and now had sent down the Koran "confirming what was before it."

By the same token, Netanyahu could choose to emphasize a part of the Hebrew Bible that depicts Persians in a more flattering light. For example, the part that calls Cyrus the Great, the Persian king, the "messiah" because he delivered the exiled Israelites back to their home. (Yes, the only non-Hebrew called messiah in the entire Hebrew Bible is a Persian!)

Dangerous rhetoric and dangerous game playing by a fringe in Israel that somehow believes that Iran is Iraq. 

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February 26, 2012

Egypt NGO Trail encores (delay to April)

The murky and ongoing political trials against NGOs backed by foreign money took another strange twist in the delay to 26 April. God alone knows what is going on now in Egypt, which is sliding chaotically sideways.

However, in this NYT/IHT arty, I rather more Trial of Nonprofit Workers in Egypt Is Abruptly Put Off -  was struck by this:

But another contingent of lawyers had turned up to argue on behalf of Egyptians who they said had been harmed by the activities of the nonprofit groups, which officials of the military-led government have charged with stirring unrest in the Egyptians. They shouted back accusations the defendants and their supporters were agents of the United States.

As though to complete the sense of a climactic unleashing of pent-up bad feeling between the two longtime allies, another group of protesters outside the courthouse chanted for the United States to release from prison Sheikh Omar Abdel-Rahman, an Egyptian jailed for the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center. Some here have argued he should be released in a prisoner swap for the Americans on trial in the case.

American diplomats, Egyptian lawyers and others involved said the efforts to resolve the case had foundered amid a breakdown in the lines of authority within the military-led transitional government in the final months before the generals have pledged to leave power. American officials say they have tried to find Egyptian counterparts who might intercede, but Egyptian leaders say they cannot intervene in the judicial process.

If the case is not resolved, Congress and the Obama administration have vowed to cut off the $1.55 billion in annual aid to Egypt, potentially rupturing the three-way alliance among Washington, Cairo and Jerusalem that has been a linchpin of regional stability.

...
There is no dispute that the two groups and their staffs have broken the letter of Egyptian law. Both groups sought, but never received, licenses from the Egyptian government, and both are openly financed from abroad. They therefore violate two restrictions on civil groups left over from government of Hosni Mubarak, the strongman president who was deposed a year ago. But both groups have been tolerated here for years, along with scores of Egyptian nonprofit groups that also break both rules.

..

But the case has continued to move forward, and the American threats to cut off aid have set off a new wave of Egyptian nationalism.

Emphasis added. That is a line of agitation - clearly by Salafistes - that is quite dangerous.

The arty elsewhere notes the idea being mooted by American officials of some deal to let the Americans go, the Egyptian nationals with short sentences. I would advance the opinion that such would be quite damaging for American image overall.

However, few choices exist.

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February 25, 2012

Libyan situ commentary, Americans thinking Berbers were Pro Qadhdhafi...

Reproducing a comment I made on a pretension to an analysis of the Libyan situation (via Sullivan):

The author, who seems to suffer from the typical "small wars" military/security commentator disease of superficial half understanding, advances some fairly questionable observations (although I wouldn't disagree with the thesis that the Libyan experience does not encourage an intervention in Syria - in fact I agree).



A Preliminary Evaluation of the U.S. Intervention in Libya » Gunpowder & Lead

We’re just over a year past the beginning of the uprisings in Libya that ultimately produced (along with, of course, NATO’s intervention) Muammar Qaddafi’s ouster. And there are now increasing calls for some form of military intervention in Syria. As such, this seems like an important time to evaluate the aftermath of NATO’s intervention in Libya, and how it intersects with American interests.

Essentially, there is a dearth of information publicly available about the state of affairs in Libya, but we nonetheless know a number of facts unambiguously:

Unfortunately the facts advanced are not facts.

The TNC has yet to establish its authority within Tripoli. However well-meaning its endeavors may be, they are not being executed or enforced outside a very small geographic area.
The overwhelming majority of the country is ruled by local militias under commanders with no accountability or common code of conduct.

True enough.

Several towns (including Zintan, Misrata, and Benghazi) are dominated by local warlords who have power equal to, or greater than, the capital. Indeed, the emergence of a western council in the Nafusa Mountains that directly opposes the TNC is a testament to its weakness.

More Zintan and Mistrata, Benghazi is in fact Benghazi is the 'national' government's power base.

Qaddafi loyalists (more tribal than ideological in nature) have successfully retaken Bani Walid, and have not been displaced.

Well, to call the Bani Walid incident an issue of Qadhdhafi "loyalists" is bootstrapping. It is, as noted in parentheses, a tribal issue.

The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group is well established in parts of Tripoli and Derna. Its rise is directly correlated to attacks against Sufi shrines, and the movement of foreign volunteers going to fight in Syria.

Not unexpected.

There has been a rash of ongoing retaliatory ethnic and tribal fighting against communities perceived to be pro-Qaddafi, most notably Tuaregs, Berbers, and black Africans.

As I note below this just shows a complete lack of knowledge of Libya. Calling the Berbers a community "perceived to be pro-Qaddafi" is pure nonsense.

The influx of weaponry and returning Tuareg mercenaries after Qaddafi’s fall has helped to destabilize a not-inconsiderable part of Mali. Violent incidents occurring in Algeria, Niger, and Tunisia have also been traced back to Libya.

Well, yes. But the cat was out of the bag well before hand, and in evaluating the situation it is dishonest to cite incidents in Tunisia (post-Revolution rather rare) and glossing over the pre-Revolution, Qadhdhafi backed incidents.

The destabilised part of Mali, the vast desert expanse where the Tuareq live is "not -inconsiderable" however it is also virtually unpopulated Sahara. Nor has it been particularly stable pre-Libyan revolution. AQIM and the Tuareq on-and-off again rebellions / banditism are issues that pre-existed the Libyan revolution and hardly can be blamed on it. An outflow of Taureq mercenaries post-Libyan revolution was always going to happen.

The incidents that I am aware of re Algeria are all quite marginal, and trivial relative to Algeria's ongoing and pre-existing security problem.

My comment was:

I am afraid it is very hard to take seriously an analysis that contains the phrase “There has been a rash of ongoing retaliatory ethnic and tribal fighting against communities perceived to be pro-Qaddafi, most notably Tuaregs, Berbers, and black Africans.”

The Berbers (who are the same people as the warlords of the Nafusa Mountains – the appellation itself is one preferred by the Berber speaking community), are most certainly not perceived as pro-Qadhdhafi. Quite the contrary, they are well known as among the most antti-Qadhdhafi communities in Libya. To write the above rather highlights a lack of knowledge about Libya.

The Tuareq (themselves, of course, linguistically Berber, but distant from the settled Berberophone communities) are another matter, having long served as mercenaries for Qadhdhafi – particularly the Taureq from Mali, for reasons particularly their own.

The Black African attacks, however, are nothing new. Populist violence against Black Africans has long been a feature of Libyan society, and was rarely punished with any real severity. Resentment againts The Guide pissing away billions on his African dreams and old racism in Libyan society, not a Libyan revolution, are the reasons.

This is, overall, a silly, superficial analysis.

For the issue of no interests, the primary interest was not having a counter-revolutionary Qadhdhafi – after the inevitable massacres in Benghazi – destabilising Tunisia and Egypt. Already before his own revolution started, in Tunisia there were credible signs of Qadhdhafi funding the Benalistes, issues that not-at-all-coincidentally evaporated once Qadhdhafi had his hands full on home territory.

As for Good Will in the Arab Street for the Americans, no magic wands exist, but in the Maghreb where I operate as an investor and have for a decade, this gets positive comment.

In all, a rather dishonest or stupid evaluation.

I would add to this comment that the underlying point that Libya does not encourage the idea that intervening in Syria. One need not, however, indulge in factual misrepresentations (or just plain ignorance) to make that point.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:20 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 19, 2012

Problematic but re Egypt and over reaction

Judith Miller is a gullible git, but this arty in her new ghetto (newsmax, well deserved) Egypt on the Brink: An Exclusive Look at the Hunted Men Who Brought Growth and Reform does touch on some legit issues (between channeling indirect Mubarek regim apologia) re the liberal reformers. Perhaps not what she meant but it reflects on who liberal (economic) reform was contaminated by cronyism and thus deeply compromised. She does not grapple with that honestly, sadly.

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For amusement value

I am not going to go through this column to rebut anything. I highlight it for its sheer insanity and amusement value. Slaes, who FT fired, apparently now writes for Bloomberg, giving her economically illiterate self a platform for spouting bizarre free association ideas: If U.S. Troops Pull Out, Economic Growth May Slow: Amity Shlaes - Bloomberg

She actually makes the argument that American military bases build other nations and claims that somehow the French economic problems of the 1970s have some connection to their booting American troops out a decade earlier. This is the land of sheer insanity. I can't quite decide if the stupid git actually believes this, or is just an utter whore for the most lunatic fringe of the Imperialist wing of the American NeoCon movement. that dreams of real empire.

This all an argument that the US should continue to have troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. (and bizarrely claims African countries have foregone growth for lack of American bases...).

Lunacy.

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February 08, 2012

Egypt-US relations further downhill: military delegation cancels Washington visit.

As this has interesting regional implications, some thoughts on the FT arty Egypt-US meetings cancelled amid trial row and on the recent Gallup polling on Egypt and US assistance

From FT
 

An Egyptian army delegation visiting Washington abruptly cancelled meetings with senior American lawmakers on Monday as US government officials warned the country’s $1.5bn aid package was in jeopardy.

Senators Carl Levin and John McCain, the Democratic chairman and ranking Republican on the US Senate armed services committee, were among a number of congressional leaders scheduled to meet the Egyptian military representatives in the coming week.
 
But the delegation was recalled home after 19 US citizens, including Sam LaHood, the son of the US transportation secretary, were referred by the Egyptian authorities for criminal trial on charges of operating civil society groups without permission and receiving unauthorised foreign funding.

I'm actually fairly surprised that Egypt has decided to play hard ball on this.  They seem to truly feel that USA won't dare suspend aide, however, I don't know the US administration will be able to hold back the political backlash:
 

Cairo’s decision to try US citizens has put in doubt $1.5bn of US aid after a warning from Hillary Clinton, secretary of state, at the weekend. “We will have to closely review these matters as it comes [to the] time for us to certify whether or not any of these funds from our government can be made available under these circumstances,” she said.

The Obama administration repeated its warning on Monday. “We have underscored how serious a problem these actions are. We have said clearly that these actions could have consequences for our relationship, including regarding our assistance programs,” said Jay Carney, White House spokesman.

It's worth noting the amounts, Econ aide at USD 250 mln is enormous. Serious American allies don't receive such levels. A questionable one....

Under the budget approved by Congress for this year, Egypt is to receive $1.3bn in military aid and $250m in economic aid. However, allocation of the military aid requires the secretary of state to certify that Egypt is supporting the transition to a civilian government, including holding fair elections and ensuring freedom of speech.

And for the political climate in USA, this looks quite problematic to support:

Opposition to aid for Egypt continues to grow. On Friday, Patrick Leahy, the Democratic senator who chairs the subcommittee on foreign aid, said: “We want to send a clear message to the Egyptian military that the days of blank cheques are over.”

More than 40 members of Congress signed a letter sent to both the Obama administration and the Egyptian military council warning that it would be difficult to maintain aid in “the absence of a quick and satisfactory resolution to this issue”.

On this last observation below, (which I suppose suggests that just before aide is cut the trials will be suspended (but not dismissed) or some similar bit of theatre, the Gallup polling rather suggest that they are playing to a willing audience. Of course, it does raise substantial questions about the US-Egyptian relationship, given a political system that has positively nurtured paranoia re outsiders, including supposed allies.
 

Rabab al-Mahdi, an Egyptian political analyst, said the ruling generals appeared to be involved in a game of brinkmanship with the US but that it was unlikely they would allow the aid to be cut. She said that for the moment they seemed to be playing to nationalist sentiments in a country deeply suspicious of US intentions in the region. ...“I think what we are seeing is part of a populist campaign on the part of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in which they take extreme positions against the US and foreign powers. It feeds into the propaganda [they have been spreading] about foreign plots to destroy Egypt.”

The IHT / NYT arty on this subject  In Egypt, a History of Distrust of U.S.-Aided Groups - NYTimes.com

A useful reminder that the process was launched under the deposed President, again highlighting the very problematic fundamentals of that regime, happy to accept a nearly USD 2 bln bribe, but at the same time played a double game.

Two groups were targets of an Egyptian investigation into their role in supporting opposition to President Hosni Mubarak before he fell from power last February. “Data was collected about the activities of the American Embassy through the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute,” Mr. Mubarak’s former intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, said in a deposition.

...

That being said, I do agree with these observations:

But Paul J. Sullivan, a Middle East expert at Georgetown University who has long studied the Egyptian military, cautioned against interpreting the criminal charges as a result merely of high-level machinations. He said Egyptians of all affiliations are wary of undue influence from the United States, which they view as having propped up the Mubarak regime for many years.

“I understand the purpose of the N.D.I. and I.R.I.,” Dr. Sullivan said of the Democratic and Republican institutes. “But this is a newly freed state and a very brittle and emotional environment. It’s not the best environment for them to work. How would we react if a foreign country came here to teach us how to conduct elections?”

Many Egyptians appear to share the military-led government’s suspicions of American motives. “Eighty percent of the people think this is America’s work,” said Sherif Mohamed, 33, surveying metal fragments, garbage fires and dusty tear gas residue left on his block from five days of battles between protesters and security forces in Cairo.

“America does not like Islam,” he said, echoing a common sentiment here.

In recent days, several members of the newly elected Egyptian Parliament have said they look forward to the results of the investigation, asserting that it was wrong for the United States to violate Egyptian laws barring foreign financing of nonprofits.

Emphasis added. Given USA mainstreet popular paranioa about all things foreign (and the lunatic conspiracy theories that seem to have wide credit in the populist right like NAFTA highway, etc), one can hardly disagree.

However, turning to the Gallup note re Most Egyptians Oppose U.S. Economic Aid beyond the headline that ~70% of Egyptians oppose US assistance to Egypt, economic or political, the non-headline result that there is openness to international assistance via WB or IMF rather suggests a specific problematic relationship that the US would be better served from stepping back from:

LOS ANGELES -- About 7 in 10 Egyptians surveyed by Gallup in December 2011 oppose U.S. economic aid to Egypt, and a similar percentage opposes the U.S. sending direct aid to civil society groups. This rebuke of U.S. financial support may be a challenge for Egypt's newly elected parliament and its future president as the government attempts to bolster the nation's financial stability.
....

Egyptians are much more willing to receive aid from international institutions, with 50% favoring this type of help. Egypt's military and political leaders initally rejected an offer of support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but later changed their minds. Last month, Masood Ahmed, Director for the Middle East and Central Asia Department for the IMF, was in Egypt to discuss a potential $3.2 billion IMF loan to Egypt. Egyptian leaders' ability to attract foreign aid and investment will be important to collecting the capital needed to move the nation's economy forward.
...

Egytians are nearly as likely to favor aid from Arab governments as they are to oppose help from the U.S. Almost 7 in 10 favor aid from Arab governments.This may in part reflect high-profile announcements by several of the country's Arab neighbors about their involvement in projects to help rebuild Egypt's economy.

...

However, some Egyptian politicians have begun to voice concerns about collecting on their neighbors' promises. Fayza Abouelnaga, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation in Egypt, recently noted that her country had received only $500 million of the $3.7 billion promised by Saudi Arabia and $500 million of the $1.5 billion pledged by Qatar. Further, she said the United Arab Emirates has paid none of its promised $3 billion. Abouelnaga estimated in December that Egypt's foreign debt reached $34.4 billion, representing 15% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

Well, Gulf state promises should always be subject to an enormous discount rate. Like 50% plus. Even on their private investment front, they have an El Dorado image, but actual investments in real terms lags badly.
 

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February 07, 2012

Most Eguptians oppose US Econ Aid

Such is the news, perhaps non American aide is less dimly viewed.Most Egyptians Oppose U.S. Economic Aid

About 7 in 10 Egyptians surveyed by Gallup in December 2011 oppose U.S. economic aid to Egypt, and a similar percentage opposes the U.S. sending direct aid to civil society groups. This rebuke of U.S. financial support may be a challenge for Egypt's newly elected parliament and its future president as the government attempts to bolster the nation's financial stability.

Given the history USA has in Egypt, this is not a surprise. 

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February 06, 2012

End American (and other) Aid to Egypt

Noted this via the Arabist, frankly Steve Cook is spot on: From the Potomac to the Euphrates » Egypt and the United States: It’s Not You, It’s Me

I say we oblige Aboul Naga and wind down the aid program—including military assistance—as soon as practical. It’s hard to run against the “foreign hand” if there is no foreign hand. In addition to undermining Aboul Naga’s claims (and hopefully weakening her) bringing an end to the aid program and shutting down the USAID mission has multiple political benfits. First, Washington will no longer be in the unseemly position of providing taxpayer largesse—however small in the grand scheme of things—to a government that resents the United States and clearly does not share its values. Second, it will provide an opportunity for a much-needed change in military-to-military relations in which the United States merely pays for the services it needs like expedited transit through the Suez Canal. Third, it is consistent with this moment of empowerment and dignity for Egyptians many of whom do not want U.S. assistance either because they believe it actually stands in the way of a democratic transition or accept Aboul Naga’s argument along with those who couldn’t care less about U.S. assistance because it doesn’t touch their lives. Finally, it will free up funds for the United States to help others who actually might want Washington’s help, perhaps the Tunisians, Moroccans, or some sub-Saharan African countries would be grateful for development assistance.

This goes for others aide as well (UK, Germany).

Assistance spent on Tunisia, Morocco, the Sahel, would make rather more sense. Egypt, well, would do well to go through a "cure."
 

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February 03, 2012

American politics, non-existence of Arab Xians

Worth a read, came across by accident

Speaking with Palestinian-American Republican Who Confronted GOP at Debate | Politics | Religion Dispatches

Extract

They also demonstrated their ignorance of a crucial part of the world. The Middle East isn’t exclusively Muslim; Hassan, for example, points out that he and his “massive family” are part of “a vast Palestinian community… in North Florida, nearly all of them Greek Orthodox or Catholic.”

But Hassan gets the anti-Muslim bigotry, especially because it comes back to haunt him (he, an Arab Christian American, is tarred with Islamist Hamas). For those in the GOP who might be reading this, allow me to tell you: The percentage of Christians among the Palestinian population is about the same as the percentage of African Americans in the U.S.A.

For a party so concerned with America’s Christian identity, Romney and Gingrich’s dismissal of the Palestinians is part of their broader disinterest in the Muslim world, and its diversities and differences. Namely, most Muslims aren’t Arabs, and most Arab Americans are Christians. You read that correctly.

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May 22, 2011

Obama Speech (bis): It's the Israel game

Well, I must say I misread that speech, I thought it was a somewhat banal (as I listened to it, in translation queerly enough), boring speech of no consequence. However, Obama Challenges Israel to Make Hard Choices Needed for Peace indicates in fact it was an interesting long-game gambit re the Israel-Palestine issue, wrapped up in the Arab 48 package.

Obama Challenges Israel to Make Hard Choices Needed for Peace
 
WASHINGTON — President Obama, speaking on Sunday to the nation’s foremost pro-Israel lobbying group, repeated his call for Palestinian statehood based on Israel’s pre-1967 borders adjusted for land swaps, issuing a challenge to the Israeli government to “make the hard choices that are necessary to protect a Jewish and democratic state for which so many generations have sacrificed.”

In his remarks to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the president, while offering praise for the relationship with Israel, did not walk back from his speech on Thursday, which had infuriated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. Rather, the president took indirect aim at Mr. Netanyahu, first by repeating what the Israeli prime minister so objected to — the phrase pre-1967 borders — and then by challenging those whom he said had “misrepresented” his position.

“Let me repeat what I actually said on Thursday,” Mr. Obama said in firm tones at one point, “not what I was reported to have said.”

“I said that the United States believes that negotiations should result in two states, with permanent Palestinian borders with Israel, Jordan, and Egypt, and permanent Israeli borders with Palestine. The borders of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, so that secure and recognized borders are established for both states.”

The president emphasized the “mutually agreed swaps,” then went into an elaboration of what he believes that means. Mr. Netanyahu, in his critique of Mr. Obama’s remarks, had ignored the “mutually agreed swaps” part of the president’s proposal.

“Since my position has been misrepresented several times, let me reaffirm what “1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps” means,” Mr. Obama said. “By definition, it means that the parties themselves — Israelis and Palestinians — will negotiate a border that is different than the one that existed on June 4, 1967. It is a well known formula to all who have worked on this issue for a generation. It allows the parties themselves to account for the changes that have taken place over the last 44 years.”

I have to say, he has real balls if he continues this. But doubtless backing down is worse than not now.

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May 20, 2011

The Obama speech

A Sr. US diplo asked me last night, as we sat in the bar watching this thing, what I thought of it.

My reaction was, "mmmm maybe interesting to people in the US, but I don't see anyone out here really caring much for more yapping."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:57 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

May 14, 2011

Naiveté in Propaganda: Ben Laden & Impact of Porn Accus

I am continuously befuddled that the US military and counterror people believe these kinds of demarches, Pornography Is Found on Bin Laden’s Computers - NYTimes.com actually carry any credibility with audiences not already pre-disposed to the US view / to disliking Ben Laden.

The discovery of the pornography, first reported by Reuters, may not be surprising in a collection of five computers, 10 hard drives and dozens of thumb drives and CDs whose age and past ownership is not known.

But the disclosure could fuel accusations of hypocrisy against the founder of Al Qaeda, who was 54 and lived with three wives at the time of his death, and will be welcomed by counterterrorism officials because it could tarnish his legacy and erode the appeal of his brand of religious extremism.

No. Just simply no. Porn does not "tarnish" Ben Laden more with anyone who does not already loathe and despise him. First, the credibility of the accusation is .... dubious as to a real factual connection to himself (given no control on provenance, and frankly the Americans could be making this up). There are any number of non-ideological reasons to view this with scepticism.

Second, on the ideological side, the people who lean towards sympathy towards Ben Laden are not going to be in any way inclinced to view this as credible - indeed it feels rather smearish - and quite the contrary I rather would suspect it has rather more potential to generate sympathy than the inverse, along the line so "the infidel not only have killed the Sheikh, but now are fabricating personal smears."

A stupid idea and demarche by "counter-terrorism officials"  (a discipline I have less and less respect for as time goes on, as it seems to mean 'specialist in advancing own prejudices in military-security jargon').

Rather more effective wold be to focus on his writings and things more clearly connected to him and the idealogy.

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May 02, 2011

Libyan reactions on Al Jazeera, re Ben Laden

Interesting street interviews in Ben Ghazi by Al Jazeera, just watching. Generally quite positive, several tying Ben Laden style to Gadhdhafi, or shrugging off to make statements ..

Western allies seem to have a good bit of decent goodwill in Eastern Libya, even among a few who seemed rather Salafi...

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Algerian reactions

I should take the time out to report that here in Algiers, where I am in town for business for the past week, the reaction to the Osama news generally positive (taxi drivers, ordinary Mohammeds I have spoken to), although I have heard two people say that they were not sure it was true unless there were pictures. I don't necessarily think pictures is a wise thing, however.

An aside, the NYTimes.com report that Ben Laden was in fact living in a mansion, not a cave doesn't surprise me:

It was hardly the spartan cave in the mountains that many had envisioned as Bin Laden’s hiding place. Rather, it was a mansion on the outskirts of the town’s center, set on an imposing hilltop and ringed by 12-foot-high concrete walls topped with barbed wire.

No Internet though? Perhaps wireless internet, pre paid cards.

Al Jazeera is all Ben Laden now, and showing the videos of the planes hitting the towers.

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Ben Laden, post

There will be much bloviating about this, I was oddly puzzled in watching Al Jazeera this AM, at first did not quite believe it: Amid Cheers, a Message - ‘They Will Be Caught’ - NYTimes.com

“I don’t know if it will make us safer, but it definitely sends a message to terrorists worldwide,” said Stacey Betsalel, standing in Times Square with her husband, exchanging high fives. “They will be caught and they will have to pay for their actions. You can’t mess with the United States for very long and get away with it.”

Sentiments understandable, but Ben Laden 'messed with' the USA for over a decade... I rather think this will in the end make little difference, although politically for the sitting President, doubtless very helpful for him politically.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 30, 2011

Moussa "Anti Israeli demagogue"

This rather strikes me as a sad indication of the extreme Israel centric lens through which US commentators, that the focus of this Anti Amr Moussa article is on his Israel stance, Moussa: The Anti-Israel Demagogue Who Will Likely Be Egypt’s Next President | The New Republic rather than on his rudderless demagorery (of which the Israel baiting is least remarkable). Rather more damning as to his political instincts is this re Libya, which actually more or less ran counter to popular feeling:

The Obama administration got a taste of Moussa’s anti-Western populism as it tried to build international support for intervening in Libya. Although the Arab League initially voted to back the no-fly zone on March 12, Moussa lambasted the attacks on Qaddafi’s forces a week later, telling Egypt’s state-run Middle East News Agency, “What we want is the protection of civilians and not the shelling of more civilians.” And though Moussa issued yet another reversal two days later—this time restating the Arab League’s support for action against Qaddafi—his inelegant 360 should be a reminder that he has made his bones bucking the West. So while the fall of Mubarak raises hopes that Egypt will enjoy a post-authoritarian future, the prominence of Moussa threatens to revive Egypt’s anti-Western, Nasser-era past. And, most alarmingly, this is apparently what many Egyptians want.

As for the last item, well after Mubarek's bankrupt slavishness (and double-talk on a popular Egyptian level, not as if the Mubarek regime actually promoted at an educational / advocacy level pro Western orientations, rather the contrary), it is absolutely no surprise that many Egyptians harken back to the Nasser era and the perception of independence. That I think is not in itself problematic. Indeed, rather it could be healthy. Now, if it also means a roll-back of liberalisation, that is not good. However, as one sees with Tunisia, liberalisation done at the service of an oligarchy that corruptly eliminates competition tends to give a bad name to liberalisation.

The real indictment of Amr Moussa is his shiftless opportunism and consistent bad judgment.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:35 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

April 28, 2011

Influence fantasies

I am always somewhat amused and puzzled when I read things like, Fatah-Hamas Deal Complicates U.S. Aid to Palestinians  :

The agreement, reached after secret talks brokered by Egypt, caught the Obama administration, like many others, by surprise. At a minimum it complicates the administration’s faltering hopes to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. It also casts doubt on American efforts in recent years to build up the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank, led by Fatah, as the legitimate leader of the Palestinians.

 It's amusing that the one even would think this is possible....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:15 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

April 18, 2011

NYT: Utter bollocks on US role in Arab uprisings

On the road at present, I ran into this article last week, in which the NYT makes the claim that U.S.-Financed Groups Had Supporting Role in Arab Uprisings something that I think is complete and utter bollocks. First, American democracy activist groups, financed by US Gov, have not been allowed in Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab '48 for literally decades. It is thus bizarre to go looking for American parentages to a phenomena that was and is entirely domestic. The article itself focuses on Egypt and Bahrain and an individual in Yemen... And to my read given what I have seen on the ground is a bunch of special pleading / spin by the "development community" to claim credit where little is due. I suppose in Egypt some tangential credit might be granted, but there seems little evidence of this:

But as American officials and others look back at the uprisings of the Arab Spring, they are seeing that the United States’ democracy-building campaigns played a bigger role in fomenting protests than was previously known, with key leaders of the movements having been trained by the Americans in campaigning, organizing through new media tools and monitoring elections.

Again, as the Tunisians took the lead, but did not "benefit" as such from this kind of American "assistance" I am quite dubious that training by Americans in campaigning, organizing or the like has any substantive impact. Of course Key Leaders is a fine weasel phrase that could be given almost any meaning.

I'd rather say the real article is more about how people like this:

“We didn’t fund them to start protests, but we did help support their development of skills and networking,” said Stephen McInerney, executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, a Washington-based advocacy and research group. “That training did play a role in what ultimately happened, but it was their revolution. We didn’t start it.”

Are trying to obtain post-facto credit for things that they in fact had fuck all to do with.
 
As for the article's emphasis on the various governments being sensitive to and  in fact hostile to American funding of political groups, well.... what bloody government on the planet including the US of A looks kindly on outside governments giving funding to political groups? Certainly not the US government, nor any W. European governments I can think of. I mean really it is pretty bloody simple.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:28 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 24, 2011

A wee oversight: sanctions cut rebels cash, access to arms

Now, one would have hoped that this would have been worked out, given past experience (from Libya crisis: live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk):

4.32pm: In his update to MPs, William Hague said Libya's National Oil Corporation would be subject to sanctions (12.46pm). The tightening of the economic noose on Gaddafi means the regime has been cut off from oil revenues. But economic sanctions will also hit the opposition, points out Samuel Ciszuk, a Middle East energy analyst with the IHS consultancy.

The state-owned NOC subsidiary, the Arabian Gulf Oil Co. (AGOCO), the upstream, midstream and downstream infrastructure of which the opposition largely controls, has been named as a sanctioned entity, making any near-time efforts to sell crude through the eastern oil port of Marsa El-Harigh for now, rather impossible. For the opposition movement, which cannot fall back on rumoured large gold reserves, this poses a significant immediate problem.

Additionally by all accounts they are also fully subject to the arms embargo. Well that's really very very precious. The Guide already has the stocks he likely needs, so sanctions are a bit of high-mindedness without much effect, and he's by all accounts got major cash reserves on hand. So, the main effect of sanctions in the near term would appear to be to hobble the Rebellion. Brilliant.

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Libya: American hand wringing, the Iraq Complex

I saw this on Kevin Drum's blog, Libya's Thousand-Man Rebellion | Mother Jones and left comment, reacting to:

A thousand men? If that's true, then there's virtually no chance of Qaddafi losing this war. For this and other reasons, Adam Garfinkle believes it's almost a certainty that the French and British will have to send in ground troops if they're genuinely committed to expelling Qaddafi, and this in turn could spell trouble for us:

So what happens if the French and British try but do not succeed in a reasonably expeditious way? What happens is about as obvious as it gets: not Suez happens. The Americans come and save the day, as they demurred from doing in October 1956. The French and British know in their heart of hearts that we cannot let them fail miserably at this, or that’s what they suppose. I suppose they’re right.

What this means is that the President may before very long be forced to make the most excruciating decision of his life: to send American soldiers into harm’s way to save the Western alliance—even from an operation that is not explicitly a NATO mission!—in a contingency that has no strategic rationale to begin with; or not, leaving the alliance in ruins and Qaddafi bursting with plans to exact revenge.

What's worse, even if Garfinkle is being unduly pessimistic and we manage to oust Qaddafi successfully, we still don't seem to have any idea whether the rebellious tribes are really any better for Libya or for us than the tribes currently aligned with Qaddafi. Helluva war we have going here.

Emphasis added.

My comment is quoted below as well, but I would preface it by two further remarks. First, Qadhdhafi already as early as the first declarations that he "had to go" by the West (before intervention, in the early days of the protests that mutated into rebellion), was already bursting with plans to exact revenge. Indeed, as my Tunisian colleague can confirm, there were credible reports that he had already begun to fuck with Tunisia by funding / supporting agentes provocateurs from the old regime, and saw Tunisia and Egypt as Western plots. I further note that one has to be extraordinarily ignorant to propose that there is an equivalence between the Rebellion and The Guide.

Regardless, as I lay out in my comment, the Libyan Eggs of Stability were already broken by the time Sarko forced intervention, pissing and moaning as if the choice was about some form of stability or intervention (as was the case in Iraq) is sheer idiocy. This without even counting the negative influence of the image of the West moaning about Qadhdhafi as he massacred the opposition, leaving the inevitable insurgency in the hands of the 'Told you so' Takfiris.

It is fine to argue against intervention, but advance alternatives to actual reality, do not piously pretend that Humpty Dumpty had not in fact fallen.... My comment then:

Continue reading "Libya: American hand wringing, the Iraq Complex"

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March 22, 2011

Non binaries: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War?

The NY Times poses this burning question: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War? - NYTimes.com Well, it's not an either or, now is it?

A bit unfair perhaps, but I find the answer to their question:

Is the battle for Libya the clash of a brutal dictator against a democratic opposition, or is it fundamentally a tribal civil war?

To be "Yes."

Or more shortly, it is clearly not just a tribal civil war, although it could evolve in that direction, but neither is the opposition abstract democrats. They oppose Qadhdhafi (an eminently sensible position regardless of one's politics). After that....

“It is a very important question that is terribly near impossible to answer,” said Paul Sullivan, a political scientist at Georgetown University who has studied Libya. “It could be a very big surprise when Qaddafi leaves and we find out who we are really dealing with.”

Well, I shouldn't think it is a surprise as such. One is dealing with a chaotic melange of people who hate Qadhdhafi, which as reflected in even the wider Arab public's response, is "pretty much anyone of any political flavour, excepting only those people directly supported and/or related to him."

Of course saying he only has mercenaries, as I have noted in passing on several occasions, is a wee bit too simple. His support is more fundamentally of a tribal logic.

Returning to the opposition, there are clearly some nasty people there, ex-regime figures who are not particularly wonderful folks, Islamists of a quasi-Takfiri inclination, etc.

I'd hazard the opinion that there are precious few liberal democratic types in Libya, so expecting a Liberal Democratic Revolution is the height of idiocy.

Nevertheless, insofar as Qadhdhafi unleashed hell in response to the demonstrations, and the Eggs of Stability are already broken, one has to move forward with that reality (this in contrast with the Iraq situation, where Bush ibn Bush willfully and with precious little understanding, started breaking eggs - an active choice).

The behavior of the fledgling rebel government in Benghazi so far offers few clues to the rebels’ true nature.

Errr, no. It offers lots of clues. First of which, they're not a unitary movement, second of which they don't have a "True Nature" in a unitary sense, and that this chaotic mix can go in a lot of different directions - probably bad directions but certainly bad directions if there is no countervailing influence.

Further to that, I find this sort of writing just strange (although after typing that I stopped to think, well, the Journo needs to convey that the heroic image of the freedom fighter and the credence given by many to the claims out of the Rebellion, needs, ahem, some nauncing):

Like the Qaddafi government, the operation around the rebel council is rife with family ties. And like the chiefs of the Libyan state news media, the rebels feel no loyalty to the truth in shaping their propaganda, claiming nonexistent battlefield victories, asserting they were still fighting in a key city days after it fell to Qaddafi forces, and making vastly inflated claims of his barbaric behavior.

Marhaben il Libya, bled al Jamahiriyah.

Let's just say that nothing about Libyan political culture over the past 50 years has built anything like objectivity into public discourse (if I may engage in moderate understatement).

As to the notes on violence, this is in fact a good thing to highlight:

In the neighborhoods of the capital that have staged major peaceful protests against Colonel Qaddafi, many have volunteered — speaking on the condition of anonymity — that their demonstrations were nonviolent mainly because they could not obtain weapons fast enough.

Even one religious leader associated with Sufism — a traditionally pacifist sect something like the Islamic equivalent of the Quakers — lamented his own tribe’s lack of guns for the fight.

That stands in sharp contrast to Libya’s neighbors, Tunisia and Egypt. In Egypt, in particular, the young leaders of the revolution were so seized with an ethic of nonviolence that in the middle of winning a battle of thrown stones against a loyalist mob, two young protesters said they believed they had lost, simply because they had resorted to violence.

Emphasis added.
Sufism is not a pacifist sect like the Quakers. It's not even a "sect" - it is an approach to worship, like Charismatics in Christianity.

I have no idea why Westerners can't get it fucking right re Sufism. It appears that pacifist quasi Quaker stuff sold by Indian Swamis in the 1960s can't be removed from English speaking consciousness.

Aside from that, the contrast with Tunisia and Egypt is correct: Egypt and Tunisia are relatively modernized societies, Tunisia more than Egypt, and

Of course expecting Non Violence to be a preferred methodology (this reminds me of Andrew Sullivan's idiocy a few days ago on this subject) in the face of The Guide, who rather obviously has few compunctions about violence, is more than a bit precious.

Continue reading "Non binaries: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War?"

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March 19, 2011

Libya Intervention Nuances

As a close to the evening, some nuances. Listneing to BBC I heard an American Lt. General - missed the name - engage in that very American military analysis of others characters, saying he did not expect Qadhdhafi to stick after more pressure, that he lacked the "good moral centre" and that he would "remove himself from Libya"... Queer analysis, that's what people seem to have been writing since this started. I can't say I had a sense from the US military types interviewed they really have gotten beyond a terribly colonial view of Arabs. I rather predict his predictions that this will be over in days, weeks "not months" will not prove out.

But regardless, in conversations with various MENA colleagues of mine, a nuance about support for this intervention. Now that there are actual planes in the air, a contradictory reaction has emerged in the conversations, the Qadhdhafi anti-colonial rhetoric echoes a bit. I think Mark Lynch is right - very right - to warn that in-region (and probably in-Libya) support for the intervention is thin and fragile.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:30 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

March 18, 2011

Text of Security Council Resolution on Libya: License to Kill the Qadhdhafi Regime?

Louns ETA: [Moving this up as it deserves review and reflexion]
Marty McFly fled armed Libyans in Back to the Future but in this time period and real world a martial no-fly zone -- or something far larger, even an authorization to aerially and materially assist in a war to unseat Qadhdhafi -- has been declared by the UN Security Council (SC 1973). Text of resolution follows below some initial commentary.

Continue reading "Text of Security Council Resolution on Libya: License to Kill the Qadhdhafi Regime?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:04 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Sullivan bis: Delerium & Fantasy re Libya & impact "Arab 48"

ETA: The LibGov has declared a ceasefire (via the ForMin), but I rather suspect this is a delaying action and not real on the ground (reports seem to indicate that indeed combat continues). Probable intention is to have a pause (likely needed in the East to bring up logistics), use rebels ongoing pushback as excuse to resume.

Really should combine, but off to meeting, so   Andrew Sullivan

That seems to me to be a minimal requirement for such a drastic and risky action. The Congress must have a debate and vote on this. It's hard to express how disappointed I am not just by the administration's decision but by the president's refusal even to explain a third war to the American people. And he's now off to Brazil ...? Is he kidding?

This from a fellow who full-throatedly backed the Iraq war. Insofar as I can tell the US has merely voted support for the UN resolution (and never mind how comical it would be to bring the Congress to debate in the closing hours of Benghazi over the theatre of the No Fly). Really, Sullivan is over compensating for his idiocy over the Iraq war, with deeper stupidity about the No Fly.

The most important part of the UN vote last night was no the actual No Fly (although France resuming its old war with Qadhdhafi has an interesting side to it), but the effect of stiffening the spines of the Rebellion. Morale effect. And worth an effort.

Unless of course Sullivan and the others can advance a scenario where Libya reconquered by Qadhdhafi, but awash in weapons 'liberated' from Government depots and filled with embittered rebels does not turn into a Chechnya or an Algeria c. 1993 (except next to Tunisia and Egypt, themselves struggling to establish stability) with the rebels turning to the hard-core Takfiri Jihad wing as their point of reference....

Continue reading "Sullivan bis: Delerium & Fantasy re Libya & impact "Arab 48""

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March 15, 2011

Libyan rebellion on its back feet

It would appear that if they cannot hold (Libya Live Blog - March 15 | Al Jazeera Blogs) Ajdabiya, the Rebellion is in deep trouble, if not on its death bed, make No fly and other talk rather academic:
      3:12pm

Al Jazeera has learned that Gadaffi forces have reached the western gate of Ajdabiya

Libya and Middle East unrest - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

• Gaddafi forces have retaken the town of Brega and are shelling Ajdarbia, 90 miles from Benghazi. Rebel forces plan to make a stand there, the last major obstacle to Gaddafi before Benghazi.
...
• Libyan government troops have captured Zwara, the last rebel-held city west of Tripoli to fall back under government control.
• G8 foreign ministers are expected to omit any mention of a no-fly zone in their draft communique in Paris. The West German foreign minister said the west should not get sucked into a war in north Africa,

This is a pity as if there is one person in MENA that there is consensus on getting rid of, including local consensus, it's the Guide, as the FT ( "Gulf provides wrong kind of support for Bahrain") in talking about Bahrain, slyly notes:

It is an irony, of course, that some of the leaders who are facing the wrath of their own people should be clamouring for the demise of a fellow ruler – except that he happens to be Col Gaddafi, loathed by virtually all his peers and brutally crushing a rebellion. In fact, getting rid of the colonel is probably one of the very few things most Arab states agree on.

Quite, indeed one of the few things most Arabs period agree on.

On intervention, my change of spirit is in many ways summed up in this New Yorker article, “Where is America?” hits on:

The rebels have lost ground because they have not learned how to hold it. At the front lines at Ras Lanuf and Brega, they didn’t dig trenches, and so when jets came to bomb them they panicked and ran. Last Friday, I was with them as they abandoned what had been their new fallback front line, in front of the refinery east of Ras Lanuf (having lost the town itself the day before) under withering barrages of rocket fire. That night, I slept in Brega; when I ventured back, the next day, to see if there was anything left of the front line, I found just fifteen or twenty battlewagons at a checkpoint in the desert fifty miles east, near El Aquela. A few more technical vehicles with guns showed up from Brega to reinforce the line; a few were beyond, “probing “ the desert, according to an officer I talked to—one of the very few soldiers I had spotted anywhere near the front lines in recent days.

Suddenly, the sky filled with the approaching roar of a diving jet fighter, which swooped in and, as we scrambled next to a car, dropped a bomb about a hundred feet from where we were. Once again, as we had seen so many times in the previous days, everyone fled—because there was no cover, and nowhere to hide. At Brega, there was a kind of reassembly of men, but they were few, and there were, again, no fortifications, no trenches, and precious few guns. The next morning, Brega, too, was abandoned amid similar scenes, as Qaddafi’s forces, coming onwards, heralded their intention to advance with long-range rocket fire and more aerial bombardment.

....

In truth, even if a no-fly zone is imposed now, it might not be enough to stop Qaddafi’s advance. Its real value, as far as I have been able to ascertain, would be the symbolic importance, the morale boost it would give the fighters, to allow them to feel that they are not entirely alone in the world. It might even buy them enough time to rally more volunteers to stand and fight, rather than retreat, in the face of Qaddafi’s advancing ground forces—or at least to dig some trenches. If Libya’s revolutionaries are truly abandoned, however, anything is possible. An ideological incoherence seethes in these young people—trying to be brave, terrified and nonetheless going forward, and being blown to pieces—which could be exploited if their revolutionary euphoria turns to bitter resentment.

Emphasis added.

I had thought No FLy rather pointless as the Qadhdhafi planes have been technically almost entirely useless per most reporting. However, I had also thought there was more of a spine of trained Army among the Rebels. The pure psychological impact of the airplanes is clearly more useful to Qadhdhafi than their actual effectiveness. That the Rebels are just a kind of "flash mob" rather than an actual force renders them fundamentally ineffective. In reading the reminder that the Rebel commander is the former Interior Minister, one has to wonder if he is not deliberately letting the mob get bloodied to create the basis for takeover - if not too late.

As to the last item, revolutionary euphoria, more than failure, failure without any real gesture of support from the West - ex-France - seems to me to carry the profound danger of ceding the terrain of opposition to Al Qaeda fil Maghreb. Without some signs of real support, the only credible actors may end up the Takfiri Jihad movement. That is in no one's interest. Better support and failure than no support and failure. The Germans are being incredibly myopic. (But then German policy under Merkel seems to be largely characterised by myopia).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

March 14, 2011

The Full Q. Rebound, & Support

Although I have been a sceptic of No Fly, I have to say time is coming to abandon that. The Guide is increasingly getting more effective use out of his airforce it appears (perhaps the pilots beginning to think that he's going to last after all) and the Rebellion is in real danger now, as this note from the  guardian.co.uk show, although the caveats as to real impact remain.

11.26am: The issue of a no-fly zone is all the more pressing given that Gaddafi's air force is continuing to raid rebel positions. According to rebel groups, war planes attacked weapons stores today near the eastern city of Ajdabiya.

France and the UK are seen as the main proponents of a no-fly zone within the G8 group of major industrialised nations, which also comprises the US, Russia, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada. Russia, one of the big players if a proposal is to be put before the UN security council, apparently remains to be convinced. The country's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said this morning that he wanted more information about how such a zone would work. Russia would "closely study" any proposal put before the security council, he added.

I've come to the conclusion that it is better to try and fail than not to try, as the impact on the Western image chez the Libyans - and the potential gains for the Jihadis - is large (negative and positive respectively).

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Oh bloody hell: 1000 Saudi troops to Bahrain

This is not going to do nice things to oil pricing, not nice things at all: Libya and Middle East uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

2.22pm: More on Bahrain. This just in from Reuters:

About 1,000 Saudi soldiers entered Bahrain early on Monday to protect government facilities following recent unrest by the country's Shia Muslim majority, a Saudi official source said.
"About 1,000 Saudi soldiers have entered Bahrain early on Monday morning through the causeway to Bahrain," the source told Reuters. "They are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) force that would guard the government installations".

Nor does Bahrain's "moderate future"  look bright. Perhaps Qatar would like to build a brand spanking new naval city?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:50 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

March 11, 2011

No Fly & the Full Qadhdhafi

ETA prefix:
This could be the opening needed for support to the Rebellion, let us hope that Arab League shows more spine than it has ever before in its existence (helped along by the fact that none of them have ever liked the Guide):Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

3.59pm: 3.57pm: The Arab League is apparently set to back a no-fly zone over Libya, according to Reuters, who quote the Hungarian foreign minister, Janos Martonyi.

"The most important thing is that the Arab League agrees with [it]," he said.
"The expectation is that they will support [the] no-fly zone under some conditions."

First, it rather appears that Qadhdhafi has launched a fullish military campaign now:

Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

2.59pm: More details and colour from Reuters:

The sound of explosions and small arms fire came from Ras Lanuf on Friday as government troops landed from the sea backed by tanks and air power fought to recapture the oil port town.
A large column of black smoke billowed from storage tanks at an oil installation, television pictures showed, after what Arab channels said was a series of government air strikes.

2.56pm: An update on the fighting in Ras Lanuf. A look at this map helps put things in context

(AP) The rebels appeared to have a tenacious hold around the oil facilities at Ras Lanuf, taking refuge among the towering storage containers of crude oil and gas. Government forces stopped directing their fire at those positions, apparently to avoid blowing up the facility's infrastructure, according to fighters.
Instead, the pro-Gaddafi troops, positioned in Ras Lanuf's residential about 10 miles (16 kilometers) east of the oil port across a barren desert no man's land, were raining rockets and shelling along the main coastal highway, targeting rebel vehicles trying to reinforce and bring supplies to the port, said Mohammed Gherani, a rebel fighter.
The bodies of at least three opposition fighters killed in the shelling were brought to rebel-held Brega, a larger oil port to the west, bringing the toll from two days of battles at Ras Lanouf to at least nine.

There is a real chance Qadhdhafi can entirely reverse his losses in the west, not clear to me regarding the East, fundamentally more hostile to him as it is. Nevertheless, as my earlier notes indicated, the Rebellion must rapidly get more organised and serious or they are in deep trouble. This may also make them more open to foreign support, but unless they are more organised, foreign support isn't going to do much (although there is probably a synergestic relationship between potential for foreign support and getting organised, as else a reverse of the abandoning of the regime is as likely to emerge as not).

It's worth highlighting the disorganisation:Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

2.05pm: AP offers a fascinating profile of the rebels fighting for Ras Lanuf and hoping to work their way to Tripoli:

"The front-line force … is surprisingly small. Not counting supporters who bolster them in the towns along their path, it is estimated at 1,500 at most Libyans from all walks of life, from students and coffee-shop owners to businessmen who picked up whatever weapons they could and joined the fight. No one seems to know their full size, and they could be picking up new members all the time …

"The rebel force is a leaderless collection of volunteers, operating in an evolving collaboration with soldiers who deserted various units over the past month and are still be trying to organise themselves. It's not clear who, if anyone is giving orders …

"The volunteer militiamen largely have been acting and reacting as a pack to government assaults, launching initiatives wherever they can. They ride around in dozens of pick-up trucks, some with machine guns and anti-aircraft guns strapped to the back. Some rebels have weapons, while others seem hardly able to operate a gun …

"Many of the fighters come from Benghazi, the main city in the rebel-controlled eastern half of the country. They are united by hatred for Gaddafi and a burning desire to overthrow him and establish a state under the rule of law."

Romantic gallantry, but leaderless 'flash-mob,' cell-phone organised cluelessness with AKs in the face of a real army is going to go down in bloody failure. It is not possible to help this mob unless they get themselves organised, and fast.

(Edited to add additional item from Fareed Zakaria's The Libyan Conundrum - TIME

Continue reading "No Fly & the Full Qadhdhafi"

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February 25, 2011

Tunisia, Don't forget Tunisia.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Don't Forget Tunisia
25 Feb 2011 05:19 pm

J. Scott Carpenter says it is "going to need help from the international community - and a lot of it":

If Tunisia doesn't succeed, no other country in the region can. Tunisia's 10 million inhabitants do not suffer the ethnic and sectarian divisions that bedevil many of their neighbors. Tunisians are well educated and largely middle class -- 80 percent own their own homes. Nearly all Tunisians practice the same form of moderate Islam. The populace looks to Europe for its economic and political inspiration. The cry Tunisians made famous around the world during their revolution, "Dégage!" (Get out!), is tellingly in French, not Arabic.

The underlying article is good, but the emphasized parts are annoying. Just because someone speaks French or English well doesn't mean moderation. Tedious condensation that (doubtless the writer, a former State person, was a francophone). Same re "moderate Islam" - I understand why it has to be said in these articles but really it gets tiresome.

Let me suggest an alternative, "the ordinary, non-extremist Islam of most of the Islamic world..." - excepting the seriously retarded places, (AfPak, Gulf).

 

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February 23, 2011

The incoherence of Arab Left commentary: West Damned if it does, damned if it doesn't

Typical of Angry Arab, this comment:

The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب

Obama and Hillary still don't want Qadhdhafi to surrender power: they fear the impact on oil field, just as they feared the impact in Egypt on the lousy peace treaty.

Where he gets this from escapes, as the Americans are clearly not friends of The Guide by any rational stretch of the imagination. Evidently, if the American government is not making sloppy posturing statements like himself, that means they're for something. It escapes, apparently, that it is not the role of diplomacy to make angry, loose commentary (in public). Not that American condemnations, or anyone else's is going to have any effect on The Guide at all. It would be pure self-indulgence. Which is fine for bloggers, but incompetent idiocy for governments.

Of course this same line of commentary, when the Americans do say something, then wrings its hands about Western interference in Arab affaires. In fact the Obama administration is doing the Arabs a favour by staying out of the way, and giving the protesters the space not to be foreign stooges, but themselves.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:39 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 08, 2011

Is Yemen better suited for politcal reform than Egypt or Tunisia

Ahem.... A serious article. I guess it all depends on what one thinks of political reform.

Is Yemen Better Suited for Reform Than Egypt or Tunisia? - Joshua Foust - International - The Atlantic

 

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Tunisia Appeal for Aid

A smart appeal, although I suspect the US, instead of investing in the country where it has the greatest liklihood of effect (and where it chose the side of Angels), will continue to pour billions down the Egyptian rat hole.

FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Tunisia appeals for aid to protect democracy

Tunisia’s interim prime minister, Mohammed Ghannouchi, has appealed for international funding to “protect the Tunisian experiment”, insisting that the cost “would be really very modest compared with what is at stake”.

He told The Financial Times in an interview there was no guarantee that the transition to democracy after the toppling of Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali as president last month would go smoothly. The popular uprising inspired protest campaigns across the Arab world, most notably in Egypt.
 
“There are forces that would like to take it back to square one,” he said. “All the people who have things they can reproach themselves for, who profited from the old system, are going to do all they can to hinder this democratic process.”

 

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February 07, 2011

Neither Free Market nor Lbieral, Egypt

An Item I must return to as it is my speciality

Resentment Finds a Target In Ahmed Ezz - NYTimes.com

On paper, the changes transformed an almost entirely state-controlled economic system to a predominantly free-market one. In practice, though, a form of crony capitalism emerged, according to Egyptian and foreign experts. State-controlled banks acted as kingmakers, extending loans to families who supported the government but denying credit to viable businesspeople who lacked the right political pedigree.

This is in effect part of the problem of that kind of regime. The usual Left academic critique is that " IMF diktat"  (a phrase that one can only use if one has actually no experience with IMF and their limp-wristed ways with such regimes) forces 'neo-liberal'  economics down the throats of countries like Egypt. Quite the contrary, Egypt came to these reforms on the bankruptcy of their state-driven model, with all the crony-ism and gross and massive inefficiencies that State models everywhere have shown. They adopted part of the IMF & WB advice re privatisation for greater efficiency, but only part. They did not adopt free market reforms as such. Unfortunately, privatisations were merely transfers from nominal state ownership with monopoly control to regime-cronies with monopoly control (as well as Military related control). More efficient than the state, yes, but not overall better for the population. Pseudo free market without a reasonably free press to critique regime and cronies, and without a reasonably free financial system (the Egyptian system remains massively state dominated, which as this note correctly indicates, doesn't mean more ' social' direction, it means more ability for rent extraction), you get this Frankenstein system.

Of course people hate this system, it combines the worst features of both systems.

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February 03, 2011

Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?

A very short answer, only in the delusional imaginations of certain Americans.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?
08 Feb 2011 05:19 pm

by Conor Friedersdorf

Above Mickey Kaus surmises yes, and Bob Wright forcefully insists no. On this one, I agree with Bob, and I've never understood why seeing the United States military invade a country and establish a democracy would inspire revolutions elsewhere. It was never ignorance of democracy's existence that was stopping other Arab populations from rising up – and it isn't as if "get invaded by America" was a viable strategy or a desired thing elsewhere.

 

 

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:21 AM | Comments (0)

The Mubarek Gamble: The Counter-Rev.

A smart analysis,

Egypt protests: Mubarak shows his dark side | Simon Tisdall | Comment is free | The Guardian

Mubarak's speech to the nation on Tuesday night was widely misinterpreted. The president was, by turns, angry, defiant and unrepentant. He offered no apologies, proposed no new initiatives, gave no promise that his son Gamal would not succeed him, and instead lectured Egyptians on the importance of order and stability (which he alone could assure).

Continue reading "The Mubarek Gamble: The Counter-Rev."

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February 02, 2011

Mubarek Regime Strategy

An item worth reading to understand regime strategy

Continue reading "Mubarek Regime Strategy"

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Double Edged Influence

Abu Muqawwama has an obs re US Military influence & Egyptian officer corp

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January 30, 2011

Rached Ghannouchi Returns to Tunisia (with rant on Anti-Islamist Panic)

Exiled Ennahda party leader Rached Ghannouchi was received by enthusiastic crowd when his plane landed. Given that he is somewhat of an Islamist, apparenlty his presence doesn't count as a step towards True Democracy, in the proposals of Robert Satloff, who wants the US to sponsor a new wave of Arab democratic government which would, apparently, not allow any non-secular or at least Islamist party to participate. In other words, the same thing all over again, a Ben Ali, only with multiple parties. Rant below, on anti-Islamist Panic.

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July 22, 2010

Turkey & the Israel to do, American silliness

I dislike commenting on the entire Israel-Palestine fiasco, it's a pointless and endless running sore that won't be solved until the Americans stop reflexively backing every bit of Israeli security-overreach.

But this is very queer. The Americans publicly questioning the Turkish alliance. This is idiocy:

FT.com   Turkey: The sentinel swivels

Conversely, the perception in Washington is that Ankara is becoming a volatile and unreliable partner. Some in Congress view the breakdown of relations with Israel as proof of an eastward tilt by an authoritarian Islamist government. US officials, usually careful to keep differences behind closed doors, are expressing doubts. Philip Gordon, assistant secretary of state and one of Turkey’s strongest supporters in the state department, says the country’s commitment to Nato, the EU and the US “needs to be demonstrated”.

The Americans - and I have heard this in speaking now and again with American diplomats - are simply daft to put their alliance in question over Israel. Turkey is a rather more useful and important actor, and one with a growing ego (and economy). The quoted statement is the highest form of self-regarding idiocy. Tone deaf, blind to Turkish frustrations with EU (bloody hell, after the Turks get stiff armed, the Americans say THEY have to demonstrate commitment?)

 

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July 17, 2010

Quixotic Arab Sat Plans

I am bemused by this report. I have a very hard time believing there is market space for yet another Arab Sat in the news space (although perhaps it might convince the USA to finally put to death the laughing stock fiasco of its state run news service, Al Hurra)

Sky News considers launch in Arabic | Media | guardian.co.uk

BSkyB is in talks about launching a Sky News-branded 24-hour Arabic language service in conjunction with an Abu Dhabi-based private investor.

It would compete with the Qatar-based al-Jazeera and other Arabic language news services in the Middle East and North Africa.

Sky said that the channel will launch within the next two years if the discussions are successful.

The new channel, which would be a 50/50 joint venture between the two parties, will be based in Abu Dhabi and have bureaux "in most major regional and international news centres".

It would be broadcast free-to-air across the Middle East and North Africa regions offering, according to Sky News, "independent and neutral coverage of the news agenda".

"The Middle East is undergoing rapid economic and social development and is becoming an increasingly attractive region for media investment," said John Ryley, head of Sky News. "This venture would build on our existing strengths as an international news provider and bring the Sky News brand to a new audience. Discussions are progressing well and we look forward to bringing a new approach to Arabic-language news."

Well, I suppose if some gullible Emirati is willing to plump for this....

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July 15, 2010

Are they Bloody Daft?: US Department of State: Maghreb Entrepreneurship Conference September 29-30, 2010 in Algiers

I mean really. Algeria? Is the American government bloody daft? Algeria is doing everything possible to make life hell for entrepreneurs and foreign investors. I guess Petrol talks, but bloody hell this may be one of the stupidest site hostings (and Algiers... well people can enjoy the State-run splendour of El Aurassi, that fine monument to the brilliance of state hotels - and museum to the 1970s glory days).

US Department of State: Maghreb Entrepreneurship Conference September 29-30, 2010 in Algiers Builds on Presidential Summit on Entrepreneurship

 

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April 06, 2010

Class Demographics Explain Better MENA/Muslim Integration in USA?

The Washington Times, not normally a spurting fountain of Muslim-friendly coverage, praises the relatively successful integration of Muslim immigrants in America when compared to that of Europe. (The newsstory mostly concentrates on inter-faith dialogue, but the broader implication of better relative integration (e.g. “melting pot”) in America comes through loud and clear.) While I do enjoy a nice dose of American exceptionalism, and I do think it may apply here in some ways, let me nevertheless throw out a less nationalistic hypothesis on relative integration levels. I am too lazy and busy to find and crunch the appropriate numbers and surveys to confirm or refute it, but here it is: Could some of the relatively better Muslim/MENA integration in America be simply due to the fact that Muslim immigrants there have tended towards the educated professional and middle class, rather than being a large class of laborers as may be the case in lots of Europe?

Continue reading "Class Demographics Explain Better MENA/Muslim Integration in USA?"

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March 16, 2010

Guy Fakes Salafism in Yemen & Spills the Hummus on the Goings-On (Real and Imputed)

Not exactly a Black Like Me story, but an American a-religious white guy writer sham-converts (or reverts, if one can do that shamically) to a salafi Islam in Yemen to study the natives and non-natives there, including Americans who go over there for Islamic or Arabic education. One was the guy who shot up the Arkansas military base. Aqoulite Shaheen takes down some of the odder generalizations and assumptions of the sham-converter down below in the comments. (A modern tip of the whig to commenter Antiquated Tory for the link at Global Post.)

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January 21, 2010

Tariq Ramadan Beats City Hall

Yesterday U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton granted a waiver of the bar on U.S. entry imposed on Islamic scholar Tariq Ramadan, in response to the the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals' recent landmark decision in the denial of a U.S. visa to Islamic scholar Tariq Ramadan. The visa denial had been based on Ramadan's ostensible "material support of a terrorist organization," in the form of charitable contributions to two organizations, one French and one Swiss, providing humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian people. The U.S. State Department later retroactively determined that the donation recipients supported Hamas, and that Ramadan, as a "material supporter of terrorism," was effectively barred for life from the U.S. - in spite of the approved work visa petition that should have allowed him to take up the teaching position he had accepted at Notre Dame University.

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December 21, 2009

Al Qaeda fil Maghreb and Sahelian Illusions

Maghreb Politics Review has a smart critique of the American extra-territorial seizure of supposed AQIM plotters (from Ghana) for trial in New York: US Arrests Malians in Terror Drugs “Link”

The comment is spot on relative to the strangely superficial and paranoid American approach to AQIM.

And the complaint is littered with attempts to illicit anti-American sentiments from the marks, who rarely return with anything more damning than a “God Willing” or two. Clearly the US government expects that everyone who hates America is on the same page, plotting across ideological lines, continents, and religions to hurt us. By selling drugs. To Europeans.

The counterpoint of blind nationalism here is blind paranoia, the thought that everyone must be scheming about you behind your back, that all “evil doers” are doing evil as part of a grand conspiracy to bring you down. If you wave several million dollars in front of three people from one of the poorest countries in the world, do you think when you say “You love Al-Qaeda, right?” they’ll launch into a subtle discussion of international terror? Or will they say “Oh yeah, you’re my brother cause we hate America too! And I’ll take that %50 up front in Euros.”

But this is par for the US government anti-terrorism law enforcement. The policing enforcement of US terrorism policy is as hamfisted as the military “war on terror”, except that the policing war is usually motivated by the desire for good domestic press. They tend to create their own terrorist plots, convince criminal idiots to accede to the plans invented by the US, and then arrest the patsies. The example of the recent Bronx terror plot in which the FBI informant took several not very bright young men recently released from jail, created a plot, bought gifts for them until they agreed to help, gave them the supplies, and then arrested them as “dangerous Al Qaeda terrorists.” Of course there are real terrorists out there, but it’s much easier to disrupt plots you invent yourself.

Emphasis added. Quite.

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November 12, 2009

Onion on Ft Hood

Nice little entry on Ft. Hood massacre reaction by the indefatigable (whatever that means) Onion.

FORT HOOD, TX—Following Army psychologist Nidal Malik Hasan's shooting rampage on the Fort Hood military base . . . fellow Muslims across the nation sent him a message today, saying "thanks a fucking bunch, asshole," to the 39-year-old killer. "Hey, great, eight years of progress right down the shitter" . . . .

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August 20, 2009

Lewistful Thinking Reconsidered: A Conversion Narrative

However valuable Bernard Lewis may have been as a historian, his influence on recent academia/military/political thinking vis a vis MENA, has always been horribly worse than useless, but nevertheless quite significant. This account of a former academic disciple's ditching Lewis when encountering reality is worth reading if only to hear that when he encountered reality on the ground "with Bernard Lewis and Samuel Huntington as my guides, I ha[d] no way to make sense of such an encounter."

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June 06, 2009

Obama Talking to Just Arabs/Iran/MENA?

So says the Jakarta Post. That's in Indonesia. Jakarta, that is, not the Post. Well, the Post too but there are Posts everywhere.

At least three - democracy promotion, religious freedom and women's rights - of his seven points are more relevant to a region who's [sic] governments are bastions of despotism than [to] the average Indonesian,. . . . for the majority of Indonesians - Muslim or otherwise - these three issues are fundamental ways of life already held dear. . . Not surprisingly Indonesia's most eminent Muslim thinkers were products of Western scholarship, not Al-Azhar or Arab Universities . . ..But in Cairo he put an Arabic frame on a cultural dialog which most Muslims may not relate to.

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April 21, 2009

Maghreb, Mirages of Ungovernable Somalia on the Atlantic bis

Insofar as this gets out of the usual Middle Eastern centred blithering on, perhaps a return to the issue of Ungovernable Spaces is worth another post.

FT  - Algerian militants strike from eyries

The group seems to have since decided to restrict itself to military and security targets, although civilians often end up as collateral damage. Experts believe the change in tactics could mean the group has been weakened or that it has decided to try to spare civilians to avoid alienating the population.

“The suicide bombings tarnished them in the eyes of the people,” says Hmida Layachi, a newspaper editor and expert on Algeria’s Islamist groups. “They were losing the image that they were only fighting the rulers so they started avoiding operations in Algiers and other big cities.”

He believes there are 800 to 1,200 militants in the mountains of central and eastern Algeria in comparison with an estimated 40,000 armed insurgents during the 1990s.

AQIM also has groups in the Sahara desert in the south of the country. These have been roaming the borders with neighbouring countries, recruiting and training militants from Mauretania, Mali, Niger and Nigeria. The groups in the desert are small,but perform a crucial function by ensuring that a smuggled weapons and explosives reach their colleagues in the north.

A US military official says: “Right now if it weren’t for the logistic supply from southern Algeria and northern Mali, the group would be on its last leg.

Emphasis added.

This may or may not be true (I would be inclined to think it has some degree of truth in that the vast spaces of the Sahara are indeed hard to control and generally not actually worth controlling), but it certainly is a perception with no small degree of policy driving value.

Insofar as the Somali pirating has reminded EU & North American policy makers how very, very annoying ungoverned places can be, and how much paranoid fear of Al Qaeda drives foreign policy, I would hazard the opinion this sort of activity will have outsized impact on EU & NA engagement with the Maghreb and the Sahel.

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April 13, 2009

The Wonderful Magic of War Zone Microfinance - Iraq

Following my short note in Lounsbury 'next door' a longer comment on the' FT arty "Small US loans are catalyst for Iraqi business"


First, on the item that most irritated on reading

“I have increased my earnings and improved my family’s quality of life,” says Hamza Abid Ali, a grape-grower from Balad who has quintupled his income since taking out a $2,400 (€2,200, £2,000) loan from the Al-Baydaa Centre, a US-backed microcredit scheme. “I was earning only 500,000 dinars [$432, €322, £292] from each donam [unit of land] on my vineyard,” says Mr Ali, a 33-year-old father of three.“But with my loan, I bought a water pump and some netting to go over the top of the grapes, and now I am making 4m dinars per donam.”

Emphasis added: Having read my share of Donor AgitProp, this sort of repetitiously canned donor-lang. gets under my skin. It is positively formulaic.

In particular as the one-off examples say fuck-all about eventual longer financing stability or economic impact (although of course the examples are intended for audiences that would not understand the same).

In any event, micro-credit is so bloody fashionable that it is hard to sort out real results from fashionable spin. I do confess, however, there is some impact, although I personally tend to find it to be more along the lines of "poverty maintenance" rather than the sort of investment and financing that can create long-term and real sustained wealth growth. Not that poverty maintenance does not have its place, in particular in corrupt systems where the longer run growth investment prospects are .... constrained shall we say? There poverty maintenance may be simply the best choice available.

Regardless, the background

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March 01, 2009

Referenda

A few years ago now, Sari Nusseibeh and Ami Ayalon pulled together The People's Voice agreement and started gathering signatures for it. The agreement was basically the common-sense back-of-the-envelope deal that everyone involved in Israel & Palestine could draw up as the eventual shape of a stable deal. The petition gathered about half a million signatures, then sank without a trace.

But Nusseibeh has shown up again, and is apparently suggesting that the Obama administration base its Middle East policy around his plan.

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January 09, 2009

Gaza: A Modest Proposal

At risk of delving into the Israel/Palestine issue, where people too often yell, scream throw things, and put words into my mouth, I'd like to see what the denizens of Aqoul think of this idea for a cease-fire in Gaza, and where to go afterward, which is part of a larger plan to eliminate conflict by addressing socioeconomic inequalities, and which would also address other conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Continue reading "Gaza: A Modest Proposal"

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December 30, 2008

Gaza round, all ye clowns: Open thread

Try to keep the hyperpartisanship down in this more heat than light subject. Observations, etc. on the latest, have at it. But when in doubt, note sentence 1 here again.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:50 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

December 14, 2008

But. . . is it good for the shoes?

(Apologies to an old parochial expression.) President Bush encounters one meaning of leading a sole superpower when a journalist in Baghdad tosses his footwear at the US head of state. The arch terrorist reportedly shouted "This is the End". Jim Morrison is sadly incapable of comment.

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November 04, 2008

Barack Hussein Obama MENA Open Thread

Looks like America's first Hawaiian-bred, Kenyan-derived, Indonesian-educated, 1960s-born, Muslim-middle-named President-elect is about to be. What does the success of Obama/Biden portend, if anything, for the Middle East North Africa region? Obama's foreign affairs team seems not wildly new, at least in terms of the conventional US spectrum. Some discussion has already started on the monthly open thread.

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September 30, 2008

Marshall Plan vs Iraq War: Costs

Another trivia about costs: Several sources indicate the war in Iraq has cost about $550 billion so far. Comparatively, the Marshall Plan which helped repel communism in Western Europe by bringing prosperity and stability there, cost $13 billion, which in today’s money is equivalent to anywhere between $100 and $750 billion. Applicability of such a plan in MENA today vs. post war Europe?

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September 21, 2008

As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA

Well, as we watch the United States nationalise its financial system in fits and starts, rather like the quasi emerging market it has become (I should note that I was amused to read comment somewhere regarding Central Banking and best practice, now that the US central bank has become the handmaiden of its finanance ministry. So much for all that independence talk they've spent the last decade pimping), a moment to look at MENA.

I suppose the Americans can say little about Iran's Gov booting a too uppity Gov of the Cen. Bank, not that one should expect particularly rational comment on Iran from the US at present, regardless.

I must say that the GCC going ahead with the monetary union preps surprised me slightly, insofar as its strikes me their interests are rather divergent at present in terms of policy.... but draft plans and actual execution are not something the Gulf is glued to by habit.

On perhaps the merely amusing side, Rush to the Gulf set to lower salaries speaks to the oversupply of bankers and doubts being expressed that the Gulf is really the boomtown(s) as presented. Dubai rather.... In the same manner, there is a nice set of items to talk about this week, if I get a chance, notably:

1. the first signs the Dubai et all Gulf Property Speculation Game is going to splot;
2. Capital flight can hit even the most well intentioned little financial black holes...even Dubai Land
3. But the oil gusher does allow for very high standards of National Poverty

Continue reading "As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA"

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September 17, 2008

Yemen Goes South: Open Carnage Thread

Latest news indicates 16 or so dead in an apparent attempted raid on the U.S. Embassy to Yemen. This account, based on Yemen insider sources who work hard to bring the discussion quickly around to the expected "you need to send us more money, dammit", indicates it was a successfully stopped large-scale raid, and likely it was al-Qaeda (now there's some serious sleuthing!). Comments on the event from Aqoulites, friends, enemies, etc. . . . have at it.

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September 07, 2008

But with respect to the Rice visit to the Maghreb

Although nothing remarkable, she did repeat the usual platitudes and as usual the terrorism optic was the main driver.. Certanly the Algerians will be annoyed that she mentioned the Western Sahara and a resolution on Rabat home territory, and the Moroccans sure to go on and on and on and on and on about that. On the other hand, the children are already playing about who got to see who, in this instance the Algerians making a big deal Rice did not see the Jet Skier en Chef. I wonder if the Algerian writer really believes the Jet Skier in Chief avoided rice over Saharan issues.... I am not sure which bunch are a bigger bunch of whankers.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:23 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Interesting: US Sec State visits Maghreb,

Odd, the current and ongoing visit by Ms Rice to the MAghreb seems to ex-Libya, been greeted with something of a shrug.

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August 24, 2008

MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?

Moving back MENA-ward, I add a rant inspired by long-time discussions here and elsewhere regarding investment in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. My amateur self keeps reading about Gulf or other money chasing things like real estate or hub port facilities, or digging out more of that Texas tea. Now, I hope I don't use too technical economic terms here, but here goes the rant: shouldn't the bulk of this fund dough, including money from superrich nations, be going towards activities where, you know, MENA regular folks will, like, MAKE NEW STUFF and then SELL THAT NEWLY-MADE STUFF TO OTHER PEOPLE for, um, HARD MONEY. That may sound a bit hi-falutin grad-school airy-fairy idealistic, development economics-y, but it needs to be said.

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August 19, 2008

Waning Maximalism: Siren Syria

It is always difficult to evaluate the reality of Gulf investments - they are the vapour ware of the investment world, often announced, much less often delivered. However, this Gulf Times arty on Gulfie investment in Syria is nevertheless interesting taken in hand with the recent trips by US bankers, hat in hand, to the Gulf.

While not explicitly connected, there has been major damage to American reputation - and Western banks reputations I would add - in this last year and one can not but think Lebanese Presidents visiting Syria is a bit of realism that but four years ago would have been off the table.

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August 16, 2008

Georgia-MENA open thread

(Apologies for genuinely accidental labored allusion.) Anyway, Russia has been doing a bit of marching through Georgia, reviving the Cold War-era 1980s for a bit (assuming the decade had ever left). Readers, writers, commenters, members, computer-owners and -operators are invited to share their wisdom on the latest Caucasian occasion, but most particularly in ways it may relate to the Middle East North Africa regions. Iran yawns; Israel lays low; Turks get dissed; Georgia removes its legions from Mesopotamia. And Vladimir Putin has been confirmed as Tsar of all the Russias, every blasted one of them, even those little Russias that fall under the couch cushions.

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August 14, 2008

3-judge panel declares "do-over" on Arar case

According to the Center on Constitutional Rights, the US Second Circuit of Appeals has decided to re-open the case of Maher Arar, the Syrian-born Canadian citizen who was deported to Syria by the US while transiting through JFK airport in New York. The case will be re-heard on December 9.

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August 11, 2008

The (Un)Surprising Failure of the Iraqi Private Sector

An utterly unsurprising report from The New York Times on the failure of the Iraqi private sector to take off after many preictions and the US pissing away billions on quixotic efforts in this regard.

The irony of these events is, as in the case of the Iraqi state, the Americans will leave behind not a vibrant liberal democracy showing fine examples of the benefits of free market economics. Instead they will leave behind a quasi democracy dominated by parties tending to vilayet-i-fiqh thinking and a massive state run sector.

And that is all that can be reasonably expected insofar as until the bombs stop and there is real security (not "security" as trumpeted by the Right Bolsheviks in the US of A, but security that makes real private capital feel secure).

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August 07, 2008

Nouakchott in the Dark: Mauretania Coup

Semi-Aqoulite alle on his blog provides background and details on Mauretania going coup coup. In comments by alle elsewhere on this site, he notes that "there goes the Arab world's most interesting experiment in democracy-by-coup."

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August 02, 2008

Arabic Translation Peeve, vol 200: Is this the Best the Army can do?

Check this out. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Mr. 9/11, provided in Arabic answers to questions in the trial of bin-Laden's driver. Here is what our competent Arabic translators of our front-line fighting forces in the war on terror, as edited by our leading media, in a trial under a global microscope, provide as one answer of his:

“As the American Army (we) have drivers, cooks, crewmen and legal personal,” Mohammed wrote. . . "We also, are human beings ... we have interests in life. ...You can not understand terrorism and Al-Qaida from 9/11 operation.”

Rant below.

Continue reading "Arabic Translation Peeve, vol 200: Is this the Best the Army can do?"

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July 26, 2008

Anglos & Arabic: the bizzaro world of the MEMRIstas

Thanks to The Skeptic, or maybe to curse him as this I missed blissfully, of this special piece of stupidity that the Washington Post published earlier, in which a certain student Pollack whinges on about supposed biases in his Arabic text. A terribly tedious and queer little whinge - why it got published escapes me. Although this text came out I think some years after me own Arabic studies (done in the strange dark years of the Orange), I have encountered the book he refers to, and I have to say one has to be a particularly sensitive Likoudiste to find it objectionable. Boring, perhaps, but objectionable?

Although parenthetically, and perhaps of more interest, I wonder how I fit into our Skeptic's Egyptological scheme when I lived there:

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July 11, 2008

The USS Liberty: It's back and . . . topically relevant!

The USS Liberty, the American intelligence ship attacked by Israeli naval and air forces in June 1967, is back in the news somewhat, and relevant to the news of the day. This assumes that this story has a true basis. Apparently the subject was raised in a meeting between US and Israeli officials. (For more Aqoul discussion on USS Liberty, go here, wherein I confess my conversion to the more-likely-a-screwup presumption.) Anyway: "According to. . . Haaretz, . . . the Liberty attack was raised in talks regarding Iran, and U.S. operations in the Middle East. . . [It] was agreed . . . that the United States and Israel would want to avoid any sort of 'mistaken confrontation' such as that which occurred when Israeli forces attacked the USS Liberty."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:29 AM | Comments (35) | TrackBack

July 06, 2008

Bring Us Your Poor, Your Tired, Etc., Unless They're Iraqi Refugees

The U.S. is currently patting itself on the back for admitting a whopping 6,480 Iraqi refugees to the U.S. since the start of U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, designed in response to the special needs of Iraqi refugees. While the admission of 4,872 Iraqi refugees to the U.S. this fiscal year is certainly an improvement over last year's total of 1,608, it's only a fraction of the 27,940 specially vetted referrals from UNHCR, let alone of the more than 4 million internally and externally displaced Iraqis.

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Posted by evaluna at 01:05 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 27, 2008

Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble

This Washington Post story nurtures the question: are the recent bubble-like oil price spikes driven by speculative runs on oil or are they driven by a fundamental growth in demand? The supply side, aka Saudi Arabia, claims the first choice and the demand side, aka America and industrialized states, claims the second. My semi-educated wild hunch is that the supply siders' 'explanation (high speculation) is closer to the truth. (UPDATE: Commenter Klaus notes a more recent Krugman column on the same subject arguing that economic fundamentals are primarily driving the price increase.)

Continue reading "Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:23 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 25, 2008

Background of the Boumediene vs. Bush case

As a follow-up to the recent US supreme court decision, it’s interesting to note that, Lakhdar Boumediene and the five other Algerians who were arrested with him were not captured in combat, but in their homes in Bosnia, a case of the “extraordinary renditions”, making even their status as “unlawful combatants” questionable.

They were naturalized Bosnian citizens, who the US authorities in Bosnia wanted extradited based on secret evidence (tapped conversations with “coded references to a terrorist plot” between one of the Algerian Bosnians and a relative of his who worked as a janitor in the Sarajevo US embassy, and other phone calls to a Pakistan based suspected terrorist). Several accounts seem to indicate the US would have exercised heavy Rambo-style pressure to obtain their arrest:

U.S. pressure to have the group extradited to the U.S. continued to mount. Initially, it boiled down to "if you are not going to convict them, just let us know when do you plan to release them and we will arrest them." A day before their detention ended, SFOR commander Gen. John Sylvester and U.S. Ambassador Clifford Bond met with top Bosnian and Muslim-Croat Federation officials and plainly told them if they did not hand over the group, Bosnia would pay a very high price. They added that they were through with Afghanistan and were just looking for another place to continue the struggle against terrorism. The message was quite clear, especially since they stressed that President George W. Bush was personally interested in the matter.

Continue reading "Background of the Boumediene vs. Bush case"

Posted by Shaheen at 08:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 12, 2008

Harold and Kumar Secure Habeas Rights

From the New York Times,

The Supreme Court ruled Thursday that foreign terrorism suspects held at Guantanamo Bay have rights under the Constitution to challenge their detention in U.S. civilian courts.

In its third rebuke of the Bush administration's treatment of prisoners, the court ruled 5-4 that the government is violating the rights of prisoners being held indefinitely and without charges at the U.S. naval base in Cuba. The court's liberal justices were in the majority.

Justice Anthony Kennedy, writing for the court, said, ''The laws and Constitution are designed to survive, and remain in force, in extraordinary times.''

The text of the decision is here

EDIT: See also Hilzoy's explanation of the decision at Obsidian Wings.

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June 11, 2008

Al-Sharq, babe, has such teeth, dear: Lebanese Big Shots Interviewed

(Apologies to Bobby Darrin and the Three-Penny Opera.) On what seems like the ultimate Summer Vacation for MENA nerds, a student provides extremely useful and interesting account of meetings with the pezzonovantes of the Lebanon. Via Col. Pat Lang, via commenter duaneg. Below, some choice excerpts....

Continue reading " Al-Sharq, babe, has such teeth, dear: Lebanese Big Shots Interviewed"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:30 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

June 07, 2008

American Elections & MENA: Extraordinary Interest

I have resisted the temptation to post about the American elections to date, as it would appear every other blog is doing so and as there was no special insight to bring. Prompted by observations made by some Latin American investors on a visit, and with reference to this sort of observation from the Financial Times on international interest in the election, it seems worthwhile to comment on the Latin Americans' own remarks that the North Africans business and financial persons they were meeting showed an intense interest in the US elections, unparalleled in Latin America. A banal observation, to be sure, but an excuse to reflect on what is indeed intense interest.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:38 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

May 28, 2008

Keffiyeh & Donuts: Ad Cancelled Because of Scarf Threat

Can it get dumber than this? Probably, but you'd have to work at it. The disturbing part is not the initiation of an attack on an ad because of a scarf that looks like a keffiyeh, it's that the anything-but-small-time ad sponsor would roll over so quickly, with no counterreaction against them for doing so. (Bonus related question: What is it about nationalism and, in other contexts than this, feminism, that makes such issues out of headgear?)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:56 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

May 26, 2008

On Israel & the American Empire

The Financial Times' Gideon Rachman has a useful editorial on the issue of US-Israeli FP issues. I am fundamentally tired of the subject, given the sensation there is some kind of devilish and pointless merrigoround, but this editorial reminded me that once in a not so distant past US-Israeli relations were governed by a certain rationalism. Pro-Israeli, as an ally, but rational and .... well, to be frank, defensible in the balance even in the Arab & Muslim worlds.
Link Fixed bloody whingers

The editorial reminds one that once upon a time the US had influence - in the I-P conflict, and in MENA. My own experience - in the private sector working for US connected firms leads me to agree with this:

Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank, says: “I can’t remember a time in the last half century where the US has had so little influence in the region.”

it is astounding how the tail is wagging the dog, or how little honesty and how much fear drives American policy in the region, and how much harm the Americans are doing to their long term interests (and I would argue, to sane Israeli interests...)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 PM | Comments (36) | TrackBack

April 23, 2008

Another Good Conspiracy Theory Down the Drain

Al Qaeda says an Israeli conspiracy didn't do 9/11. And, it adds, Iran started the Israel conspiracy rumor. Is that itself a conspiracy rumor?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:43 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

Open Thread on Carter, Hamas, and Stuff

Belaboring, distatefully, the last general subject area, we turn to Jimmy Carter's statement that Hamas was ready to accept Israel at some point in some way. Hamas itself seems to disagree. To me, it appears to be a conflict of spin. Hamas will not, for ideological reasons, recognize Israel but they appear to be willing to accept a Palestinian state on 1967 borders, and say they would accept a popular referendum to honor a truce to go no further. With spin, that can be seen as de facto acceptance of the Palestinian Authority's current or future recognition of Israel. Sounds alot like China and Taiwan, actually. (Which situation can erupt at any time, but probably won't as long as mutual prosperity keeps rearing its ugly head.) Anyway, unlike the previous thread where I had a strong opinion and not much time or interest to engage, as I was asserting something obvious, here I am inactive because I have no strong opinion or time, so it is just an open thread for those interested.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:15 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

April 02, 2008

A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It

It being a little quiet around here what with all of us busy and/or lazy, I thought I'd spice it up by going against the usual, and quite healthy, distaste of most Aqoul principals towards wading into the Israel-Palestine morass. Especially as there are anniversaries and such coming up. Anyway, today's lesson comes from a column of Michael Gerson (not a fan, myself, usually) in the Washington Post. It tells of a speech at the Holocaust Museum by an old gentleman, a Mr. Traum, who was once a very young gentleman in Nazified Austria. He recalls various events especially around Kristallnacht in 1938-39. Below the break is a revealing nugget.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:37 AM | Comments (74) | TrackBack

March 22, 2008

American Tantrums - Don't Talk to the Iranians

The Americans increasingly shrill tantrums about doing business with Iranstrike me as entirely self-defeating. Rather like the Cuban sanctions, they are likely merely to give the regime a foreign enemy and scapegoat an excuse on which to hang the consequences of its own economic incompetence. Never mind they are likely to be as successful as those stunningly successful Cuban sanctions (whose main purpose seems to be preventing Americans from vacationing on the cheap, but no matter, all the better for the aficionados of non-tradable products Cuban).

Childish idiocy and tantrums, wishful thinking and gradiosity seem to be what one is in for until this current band of incompetents in the US is out of power. Nine long months, if the cretins don't drive themselves into a currency collapse.

Meanwhile, I would think the US Treasury has better things to do with its time than haranguing the world about the risks of doing business with Iranian financial firms. It might do well to worry about the risks of doing business with American financial firms.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 09, 2008

Favouring Religous Minorities in Emigration - MENA, US, EU & Iran

An issue without an easy answer, with respect to "what is right" as such, raised by a Washington Post arty on US favouring religious minorities in emigration from Iran which to follow the article, has drained the communities.

The essential message from the article, in grosso modo, most Xian and Zoroastrians, etc seeking to leave have largely economic motivations. Hardly news, saw everywhere really. However, the community leaders see their people being drained away (and of semi-amusing note, to a land of immorality... US of A where gays can marry [ahem, well no, but...], horrors to the priest quoted). One wonders what would happen to Iranian Sunni communities given the same chances. What is right here? Rather like the priest, one has to say, well, given a chance...

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 05, 2008

Twilight Zone Analysis & Iraq

Reading this opinion piece from a former Bush Admin figure, I was almost impressed by the sheer, naked audacity of the argument:

If we continue to build on these developments, the Iraq war, once thought to be a colossal failure, could turn out be a positive and even a pivotal event in our struggle against militant Islam. Having paid a high cost in blood and treasure and having embraced the wrong strategy for far too long, we stayed in the fight, proving that America was not the “weak horse” Mr bin Laden believed it to be. Having stayed in the fight, we may prevail in it. The best way to subvert the appeal of bin Ladenism is to defeat those who take up the sword in its name.

We are a long way from winning in Iraq. It remains a traumatised nation and the progress made can be lost. But the trajectory of events is at last in our favour and a good outcome is within our grasp. If we succeed it will have enormously positive effects beyond Iraq.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:35 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 25, 2008

Economic Development, Foreign Investment and the War on Terror

Oddly via one of my investment robots, I ran across this Op Ed from Zenpundit favourite Thomas P.M. Barnett - a Strat Studies type - on the necessity to focus on promoting growth in MENA, and imp. of FDI. More important than making things go boom.

I shall leave this open to comment. I have some own reactions, which may really resolve to quibbles, to details in the Op Ed, but it is interesting to see this argument.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:15 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

December 28, 2007

Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work

Finally figuring out what anyone here could have told them years ago, US forces in Iraq have earned at least a B-plus in Empire-Building 101 -- not that that's a good thing, but it can salve a sore wound for an indefinite period. The principle is to use local power structures as your surrogates, basically by bribing them. This USA Today story details it well. (Thanks to a Klaus call, we have a link for the original stick-figure anti-insurgent plan offered by a later-killed US soldier here.)

Tribal sheiks . . . have seats on most of the city councils and the provincial council. . . . Many tribes run construction and trucking businesses and benefit from U.S. and Iraqi government reconstruction projects. The contracts with U.S. forces allow sheiks to hand out jobs, and thus maintain power.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 04:39 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

December 16, 2007

Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure

Not often do I get to be more right than Jim Henley, but here I claim it though I can't document my earlier growing sense that The Surge would turn out better than we cynics first expected. (The last time he was wrong, which goes back years, so was I, as when he predicted that Ariel Sharon would not go through with the Gaza withdrawal.) But now he is surprised that violence has not rebounded in Iraq since The Surge in a way he has predicted. I am far less surprised however and, although I started as a Surge Cynic as shown here, I have come to feel after more information that there has been a good chance of some sustained suppression of the violence. More on why, below.

Continue reading "Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:58 AM | Comments (28) | TrackBack

December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 08, 2007

Citigroup: "Arab" Capital, Need and Fear

With the good apparent news that , as FT commentator Ferguson put it, World War IV is off as the warmongering Right Bolshies in America have had their arguments castrated, and a moment on the weekend, I think it useful to take an economy moment to reflex slightly on on Citigroup's rescue by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and the effective non-reaction of the usual suspects such as congenital cretin Mr Schumer. Now, the non-reaction somewhat wrong-foots my own commentary two months ago anticipating great hysteria, but perhaps the promise to be "silent" as an FT arty put it placated the professional cretin. Or perhaps rather his handlers in NY understood Citi's shaky state and shaped the reaction, so very different than either his reaction to the investment proposed in Nasdaq or last year (2006) with Dubai Ports World (also at the opening for more explicit Schumerism).

The contrast between in particular the round up of reaction in the Schumerism link and the non-reaction to Citigroup is interesting. Fear of banking collapse and grinding halt to the queer American use of houses as credit cards perhaps partial driving explanations on the political side, but my speciality is not American politics, which I care little about except where it has MENA blow back. Unfortunately given a near decade of utter cretinism on the Americans part in this respect, this is too frequent.

Continue reading "Citigroup: "Arab" Capital, Need and Fear"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:59 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

December 04, 2007

George W. Bush, a Lamer Duck than Mohammed the Teddy Bear?

It certainly surprised me, but in a report released today, all sixteen US intelligence agencies collectively stated:

We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program...

We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons...

We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.

Well, what about that as a spoiler for the Armageddon wing of the US government and neo-con movement?

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Posted by Ibn Kafka at 02:13 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

November 27, 2007

Annapolis Semi-Open Thread

In Annapolis, Maryland, USA, another round of peace efforts commences in the Great Intra-Semite Parking Space Quarrel ("You have 22 other parking spaces!"/ "Well, you're not really a car!"/"God stamped this ticket!"). It -- the conference not the quarrel -- will last for "as long as [Rice] feels there is a good, solid and productive discussion." Have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:43 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

November 03, 2007

Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington

I have to borrow from the discussion on the previous thread the quotation below. It's from a book review of at-best mixed value but by someone with the knowledge to make the statement. Tell me its assertion is false. Please, God, please......

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

October 25, 2007

The Magic Kingdom

Last week, I decided it would be interesting to watch The Kingdom, an action movie that followed four FBI agents sent to Saudi Arabia to investigate a massive attack on an American housing compound. I went not because I expected it to be intellectually stimulating (it wasn't) or because I figured I'd learn useful things from the film (I didn't), but because I wanted to see how Hollywood portrayed Saudi Arabia. Save for the surfeit of British villains, Hollywood is a useful barometer of American perceptions of a particular part of the world; there is a reason so many bad guys were Russians during the Cold War.

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Posted by dubaiwalla at 11:40 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

October 24, 2007

MENA Reform: Reform is Dead, Long Live Reform

In part provoked by stunningly irritating conference call with idiots (aka known as 'funders") and in part by getting this piece of silliness emailed to me by some of the same participants, the recent naming of a government in Morocco (for which you can see some useful French commentary chez Ibn Kafka, whose 2nd home at Aqoul sadly awaits the intervention of a mystery writer coming out with a stunning review of some Somali chick...) is a moment to reflect on reform, via this flawed although not entirely useless article in FT (if one closes one's eyes to the idiocy of quoting the USFP). I will add that yes it is clear that England is clearly stringing together his series of quotables, poor bastid is a bit at sea.

First, in preface, let me say that I have long held the opinion that political reform can not really take place except when driven by economic change. At the same time, my dear Ben Ali in Tunisia shows that economic progress without political reform in our MENA region, well can go down a blind alley to be polite.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:20 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

October 18, 2007

Iraq: Lessons in Risk & Investment

I was amused to read this New York Times arty on US military "concern" over Iranian and Chinese contracting and investment in Iraq.

Aside from providing a certain amusing lesson in economic interest, there are two key lessons here:
(i) That in high risk environments, private capital is cowardly (and rightly so),
(ii) that the US has and still is trying to "do" Iraq on the cheap and without real effort - not national mobilisation despite the Good & Evil rhetoric and calls to Second World War Hollywood imagery. No, drip, drip in billions of just enough for the moment to give the semblance of serious effort to the domestic audiences.

It makes the failure in Iraq sadder, but also more amusing to have the Chinese giving lessons in risk. It also makes more ridiculous the various ill conceived and half baked "economic initiatives" the Americans have launched in MENA, and Iraq - driven more by ideological wishful and magical thinking about magic entrepreneurship and private initiative springing full-formed out of Zeus's head than real effort to drive change, their "key word" parroted constantly and tiresomely in every bloody conference they bloody show up at.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:41 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

October 12, 2007

Talking Turkey (and Armenia and Kurdistan)

So the PKK is threatening to kill Turkish politicians now. A quick glance at the "related stories" link tells the past few days' story pretty handily:

• Turkey recalls ambassador to US (11 Oct 2007)
• Kurds urge Turkey not to attack (11 Oct 2007)
• Turkey seeks approval for Iraq raid (10 Oct 2007)
• Turkey warns US on Armenia bill (10 Oct 2007)

To sum up a bit more fully: after a series of attacks in eastern Turkey by the PKK, the Turkish government is threatening to move militarily into northern Iraq to strike back at suspected bases up to 60 km inside the Iraqi border. The Iraqi government has refused permission for the invasion; the Kurdish regional government has tried to be conciliatory, urging some kind of non-military action "because it's our problem too"; Americans and Europeans have also warned against an attack. Nonetheless, the army has already shelled suspected bases on the border, and the government is seeking approval from parliament for an "incursion".

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Posted by tomscud at 12:07 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

October 04, 2007

USS Liberty sort-of followup: Chicago Tribune

The Chicago Tribune does a service by giving the USS Liberty-attack veterans a full say. As I discussed many weeks back, the case deserves full fresh investigation. At the time, I shared my own developing conviction that it was more likely than not a case of culpable mistaken identity rather than a willful attack on an American ship (at least when it was ordered). The article erodes that conviction somewhat -- I'll downgrade mistaken identity from "buy" to "hold" -- but essentially the attack-with-foreknowledge argument often goes back to the same flaw: the belief that merely by defeating the "innocent mistake" claims by Israel and Fans, the only other conclusion is Israeli foreknowledge of the ship's American-ness before the attack began.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:41 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

September 26, 2007

Abu Aardvark on The Surge & The Sunni Leadership

A personal favorite political magazine's blog presents a personal favorite political institute's video of an Aqoul favorite blogger Marc Lynch, aka Abu Aardvark, speaking at a conference at the CATO Institute on THE SURGE. The professorial Father of Aardvarks opines about the recent Iraq Sunni insurgent-US military cooperation, but bases his insights on Arabic language media and internet communications of Sunni community leaders. The conclusions he arrives at are basically that the Sunni leaders are stating to their very anti-US constituency that cooperation with the USA is merely tactical and the result of insurgent victories which forced the US to assist them in certain common aims of fighting al-Qaeda and fighting some Shiite militias. They view the government and al-Sadr as "Iranian" and they eventually want the entire US occupation out. In addition, the conditions are such that further sectarian fragmentation is underway and no matter how long the US stays, it appears the conditions will remain ripe for sectarian war. Informed readers, have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:48 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 22, 2007

America's Crusade to Drive Away Arabo-Muslim Investment

Senator Schumer, ignoramus and fear-mongerer at large whose understanding of Dubai, whore entrepot of the Gulf, is that it's Al Qaeda central: "Dubai has been cited as a nexus for terrorist financing and money laundering and a 'potential crossroads' for shipping and trading linked to Iran's drive to obtain nuclear materials and technology"

Evidently despite representing New York, his literacy in matters financial is also terribly limited (or he merely is one of those Phobics post 11 Sep who are smart enough to dress up their fear of all things Islamic in other clothes), for Dubai taking a stake in NASDAQ really means fuck all (other than they're likely to be soaked just like the Japanese were in their Rockefeller Centre / NY buying spree...).

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

September 13, 2007

Iran War On the Way: More Evidence

It appears that I may have been right to call attention to those saying a war on Iran is being rolled out by the Administration. An informed and expert source in DC affirmed it to me as well a few days back. And it looks like the usual suspect sources are now marketing it. (Love the part where we can mysteriously tell that the Germans really want us to attack even as they back away from sanctions against Iran. Saying "no" when they really mean "yes", those Teutonic teases!) Michael Ledeen appears to be the one whose job is to incite the converted; he who says that al-Qaeda and Iran are interchangeable terms and at one point called Dubai, an "Iranian colony". Man, all them dang camel jockeys are the same and interchangeable, and that thinking is how one manufactures a war. Anyway, Aqoulites and Aqoulite wannabes with Iran-specific knowledge are needed to weigh in, now and in the future.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:19 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

September 09, 2007

Quick Roundup of News on Roundups

{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)

Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)

Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.

And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 07, 2007

Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day

Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."

Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"

In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 03, 2007

Dar Fur: Not So Simple as Arabs attacking "Blacks"

As longer-term readers of Aqoul know, I have rather long been beating away at a point re Dar Fur: that the nice little story packaged up for college activists and Islamo / Arabophobes re Dar Fur fundamentally mis-characterises tribal resource war as genocide and that the real story is desertification and excessive population pressure on an environment that can't support the combination of population lifestyles and numbers. And that the simplistic narrative of Black Africans versus Arabs (imagined to be people looking rather like Saudis, rather than the said Arab elders in the photo... who are rather obviously Arabised locals of a most "Black" genotype....)

The New York Times in a generally decent article, Chaos in Darfur on Rise as Arabs Fight With Arab makes me point, if belatedly. Of course, it contains certain idiocies, such as referring to Arab tribes in the plural but the Fur as a single tribe - they are of course a linguistic group about as much a single tribe as "the Arabs." Which is to say, they are tribes, plural. The article is very much worth a read and promotion. As I am an optimist by nature, perhaps it can help correct some of the delirious whanking on about Arab genocide on the Blacks, and maybe refocus on the real tragedy of an ecological and economic catastrophe and a spiral of destruction as clan and tribal warfare becomes bloodbaths via guns (not that history of the Maori should be forgotten in reminding one and all this is hardly a new phenomena).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:50 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 02, 2007

Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?

The informed blogosphere and newsosphere are abuzz with rumors* that a US war, or a sustained attack (i.e.war), on Iran is being put out for aggressive marketing by Administration innards this week. Events will prove this true or false. Regardless of the rightness or wrongness of such a thing, if it is being planned, I do wonder if the questions and considerations below have been addressed.

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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows

My favourite newspaper, as a running dog of an anglo saxon ultra liberale as the francophones like to style me (well except the running dog part, it not being in the idioma) The Financial Times has a fine series on Remittances, or in more ordinary language, money sent home by 3rd Worlders working outside of home country.

Funny these terms. Leaving this aside, remittances is quite a hot topic in the financial world, both in policy and in the money making parts, because the volumes are huge and our grubby little minds always think there must be ways to do interesting things with cash flows. More prosaically, the development people are all atwitter that:

In many developing countries today, more money comes from remittances than from foreign aid, foreign investment or even traditional exports. In Central America, remittances have long eclipsed traditional agricultural mainstays such as coffee and bananas. Migrants send more money to Morocco than tourists spend there. In some small countries – Lebanon, Serbia, Haiti, Tonga, Albania and Jamaica are all examples – remittances generate more revenues than all merchandise exports put together. The latest World Bank figures list 14 countries where migrants’ earnings account for 15 per cent or more of economic output, ranging from Moldova with 38 per cent to Jamaica with 16.4 per cent.

So there must be ways to make this money work better than merely supporting consumption, they say!

On the other side, and this is particularly true for marginally financially literate American government officials, there is this huge obsession with hawala (their mot phare, having just learned it, and thinking it applicable everywhere in - what do they call it, the silly little American provincials, BMENA or GMENA (Broader / Greater MENA), (1) and transfers (informal or otherwise) as terror financing. Apparently insensible to the data indicating nothing much in the way of money laundering as such has been involved in al Qaeda acts despite much fevered talk.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 13, 2007

A Cheney is only as strong as the weakest link

This American Enterprise Institute resident's expert comments, from circa 1994, are making the rounds, as well they should. Perhaps no one in the current Administration had encountered these thoughts, during the buildup to the Iraq invasion.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 12, 2007

Blacklisting little tiny radical groups

The first thing that came to mind in reading that that the Americans have "blacklisted" a little radical group in a Leb refugee camp was "oh my, I guess they won't be able to launder any assets through buying discounted mortgage assets.... Well, actually that's not true, my first thought was "why do they bother?"

I have no doubt it took more expenditure on the part of the Americans to go through the process, than this little marginal group has ever seen. Freezes their assets.... for a group of flea-like importance relative to US interests. In the Americans fixation in a Comintern / Soviet type threat, they descend into comical acts; wasteful as well.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 31, 2007

Weapons for Everyone

As you might already have read, the United States has announced a massive arms package covering Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf countries. Guardian columnist Brian Whitaker, a Middle East expert, believes the deal is a bad idea, as it will inflame Sunni-Shia tensions throughout the region. While I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Whitaker, I must respectfully disagree with him and say I consider the deal a good idea overall.

Continue reading "Weapons for Everyone"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:36 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

June 18, 2007

Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath

Monty Python's Life of Brian meets real life as this woman gets to speak in public as if she knows what she is talking about. Saracen-slayer Ayaan Hirsi Ali was speaking at the National Press Club and I accidentally heard it on the radio. At first I didn't know who it was until a stream of simple-minded inanities about Islam versus the West narrowed it down fast. No transcript available, only memory, but I had to belly-laugh and nearly spew as she explained Islam's rigidly came from the fact that it takes its Scriptures as literal and divinely authored unlike, um, Christianity. In the Christian Scriptures, she explained, the books are not fixed as being written by God, but are said to be written "by people . . . like Paul . . . and Deuteronomy." (That's exactly what I heard, folks.) What an expert guide for us on religion and progress! O, why did I have to be a Monty Python fan?

Continue reading "Ayaan Anti-Hirsute Ali: Son of Deuteronomy of Gath"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:30 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

June 12, 2007

Desperately Seeking Sudan: Key War on Terror Ally

This Baltimore Sun story is not too much of a surprise for those who connect the dots and are somewhat informed. "Sudan has secretly worked with the CIA to spy on the insurgency in Iraq . . . . The relationship underscores the complex realities of the post-Sept. 11 world, in which the United States has relied heavily on intelligence and military cooperation from countries, including Sudan and Uzbekistan, that are considered pariah states for their records on human rights. "

Now does anyone know of any Hariri connection?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:42 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 05, 2007

USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly.

Among the Mideast Six-Day War's 40th anniversary issues will be the June 8, 1967 attack by Israeli military forces on the USS Liberty, an American naval intelligence ship. In international waters near Egypt's Sinai peninsula, the vessel was torpedoed by Israeli Navy vessels, following repeated strafings/napalmings by Israeli Air Force planes. A special remembrance was held at the Navy Memorial (7th and Penn) in DC on June 8. Despite my own newer conclusion that the incident was indeed a result of Israeli errors, rather than an assault with foreknowledge of the ship's American nationality, I do think the incident should receive long overdue U.S. public investigation and hearings .

Continue reading "USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 AM | Comments (27) | TrackBack

June 02, 2007

How Do You Say "Chutzpah" in Arabic?

The Department of Homeland Security, in a nod to the U.S.' long tradition of aiding those huddled masses who yearn to breathe free (or at least yearn to refrain from having their heads blown off), has announced that a whopping total of 60 Iraqis will shortly be admitted to the U.S. as refugees - but only if they pass the required security checks, of course.

Continue reading "How Do You Say "Chutzpah" in Arabic?"

Posted by evaluna at 12:00 PM | Comments (33) | TrackBack

May 23, 2007

Keep your Sunni side up: Lebanon conspiracy theory #637

Seymour Hersh propounds this conspiracy theory of sorts regarding the rise of Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon. I don't buy it offhand, but there's plausibility in a Saudi role in promoting Sunni anti-Shiite counterweights, with US winks and nods. Any takers?

What I was writing about was sort of a private agreement that was made between the White House, we're talking about Richard -- Dick -- Cheney and Elliott Abrams, one of the key aides in the White House, with Bandar. And the idea was to get support, covert support from the Saudis, to support various hard-line jihadists, Sunni groups, particularly in Lebanon, who would be seen in case of an actual confrontation with Hezbollah -- the Shia group in the southern Lebanon -- would be seen as an asset, as simple as that....There is a supreme overwhelming fear of Hezbollah and we do not want Hezbollah to play an active role in the government in Lebanon and that's been our policy, basically....

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (42) | TrackBack

April 28, 2007

Maybe All is Not Lost in Translation

Apparently the U.S. Congress has taken notice that a grand total of fifty green cards per fiscal year was not going to meet the demand created by Iraqi and Afghan translators who have placed their lives in danger by serving as translators and interpreters for U.S. forces.

Continue reading "Maybe All is Not Lost in Translation"

Posted by evaluna at 12:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

April 05, 2007

Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town

Youssef Boutros Ghali, Egypt's Minister of Finance, will be giving his take -- perhaps a bad choice of words -- on the economy of Nile-dom right here in Potomac River City, aka Washington D.C., on Thursday, April 12 (reserve at the CATO Institute by 11 April). Full details are below the break, and here, the most important of which is "Cato Forums and luncheons are free of charge." D.C area Aqoulites are required to go, if they are below 32 and in any kind of University. Meanwhile, informed comments from all on the subject, including from our own regional finance hyperinformed but Masrophobic resident Id, are welcome.

Continue reading "Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:16 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

March 13, 2007

Go East Old Man, Go East: Halliburton to Dubai

An interesting article, or rather an article on an interesting development that is difficult to assess. From the FT, entitled Risky Locations, on Halliburton's queer decision to move its CEO to Dubai.

I am, to be frank, puzzled. Comment below (crossposted from The Lounsbury).

Continue reading "Go East Old Man, Go East: Halliburton to Dubai"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:27 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 06, 2007

Iraq Oil Law Discussion

Somewhat tardily, but at reader request, a note on the new Iraqi oil law bill in cabinet, as reported in the FT.

My quick reaction: meaningless bollocks. My longer reaction, bloody idiotic meaningless bollocks just like the fucking schools painted and other such nonsense that only idiotic innocents with no fucking sense of fucking reality will get excited about. There are no economics to discuss. There is no way to model having your pipelines constantly cut and if you're in Kurd Land, the Kurds losing control of their production, a political threat of no small probability.

Reader reactions welcome.

[NB: corrected some idiotic early AM grammatical blunders, linking idiocies and the like-CL 7 march]

Continue reading "Iraq Oil Law Discussion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:19 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 25, 2007

Nerds Only: Oral Histories of US Diplos Now Online

Quick note: The US Library of Congress has unleased upon unsuspecting humanity a large set of full text interviews with key US diplomats of the 20th century. Some MENA material is here, and elsewhere on the somewhat hard-to-navigate site. Nerds, start your engines.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 14, 2007

Lost in Translation: U.S. Policy Toward Iraqi Translators and Interpreters

With an estimated 3.8 million Iraqis currently living as refugees, it’s not surprising that the U.S. might want to help by taking in a few hapless souls until Iraq stabilizes. So I wasn’t at all shocked to see that Washington has offered to provide refugee visa slots for its customary drop in the bucket. That’s right - 7,000 lucky Iraqis, or 0.18% of those who have fled during the current conflict alone, will be granted the opportunity to start over in the U.S. in the form of asylum.

Continue reading "Lost in Translation: U.S. Policy Toward Iraqi Translators and Interpreters"

Posted by evaluna at 11:03 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

January 16, 2007

Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?

A new project, wikileaks.org is out of the bag, ahead of schedule. News leaked of the new site's proposal to unite international cybernerd expertise with political dissidence to create a place where persons can safely post leaked government documents with minimal fear of direct detection. The technical feasability and security value I know not, but here is where they provide basic info, with link to a sample of a leaked document allegedly from the Somali Islamic Courts movement. For MENA-watchers, or more probably US-MENA watchers, it may be a site to keenly watch.

Continue reading "Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:55 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 14, 2007

War with Traditional Islam

An interesting blog post from military specialist and commentator Col. Pat Lang (a real colonel, unlike my old Col appellation, a mere shortening of my name) on War Against the Boogey Men, critiquing the American approach to the Iraq war and the larger engagement with the Middle East.

The item that caught my eye was this:

"Freedom" and "Islamic Fascism" clearly have "special" meanings here. I say that "freedom" as the bushies use the term is code and really means westernization and "globalization" in the sense that we want to see the world "ironed out" flat so the it meets the egregious Friedman's dream of a homogeneous world. "Islamic Fascism" means, I think, simply "Islam." That is, Islam as it has been understood by millennia of Muslims. That is, as an all encompassing view of the world and man's relationship to God. "Ah, but these are not real Muslims," I can hear the outcry now. Rubbish. We non-Muslims can not dictate to any particular group of Muslims what Islam means to them. We want an Islam similar in its role in life to the emasculated role that Christianity plays for most Americans in their lives? Sorry! We do not get to choose for them. There wil be a reaction to what I have written here. It will be similar to the outrage vented on me by a former congressman from the Midwest who went on and and on about the nice ladies who come to his office to tell him that Muslims are a peaceful lot. Peaceful? Yes? Within limits.

My analysis leads me to the belief that we are fighting against traditional Islam.

Emphasis added.

Continue reading "War with Traditional Islam"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:06 PM | Comments (77) | TrackBack

January 09, 2007

Wishful Thinking, Grasping at Straws, and Other Habits of Highly Effective Pundits

I know that taking Andrew Sullivan apart whenever he embarasses himself talking about Islam is old hat on this blog, but his recent post about the possible benefits of the Iraqi civil war for the war on terror deserves special mention. You see, by declaring victory and then leaving Iraqis to slaughter each other, we counter al-Qaeda's "West versus Islam" narrative with an "Islam versus Islam" narrative.

Continue reading "Wishful Thinking, Grasping at Straws, and Other Habits of Highly Effective Pundits"

Posted by homais at 02:05 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

January 05, 2007

Saddam Execution & Recent Events: A Moroccan Perspective

The casual reader of Tel Quel, a trendy francophone Moroccan weekly, or, to a lesser extent, of Le Journal hebdomadaire, might be forgiven for thinking that the average Moroccan is more interested in the depenalisation of cannabis, the right to convert to Southern Baptism or whether algebra will be taught in Tamazight than in events in the Middle East. One Tel Quel journalist wrote "Je n’aime pas le Hezbollah" ("I don't like Hezbollah"), thus showing how disconnected this magazine is from the broad strands of Moroccan public opinion - fiercely pro-Palestinian, pro-Hezbollah and anti-US.

Continue reading "Saddam Execution & Recent Events: A Moroccan Perspective"

Posted by Ibn Kafka at 05:10 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

December 29, 2006

Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Any Real Meaning in "Moderate" Elections?

A somewhat Arab News-ish article from FT on the Moroccan PM - who's on shaky ground according to the movers and shakers of the Maghreb biz community - comments that the Islamists can't really win in the upcoming elections, given they're structured against them.

I continue to be frustrated with this short-sightedness.

Returning to the question posed in the title, is there any real meaning in "moderate" elections? Am I the only observer that feels this sort of game has the tendency to bring long term discredit on the concept of "secularism"? (well, actually my opinion is that it already has.)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:30 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 27, 2006

You Can't Be Syria's? Ambassador Blogging

The envoy to USA from Syria apparenlty maintains a personal blog. I'll leave it to our distinguished readership to assess the value or lack thereof, and the deeper sociopolitical meaning. In the meantime, I kind of enjoyed his linking to this survey by Sami Moubayed of Syrian women's rights activities (which, I would note, apparently did indeed exist before the Levantine Boadicea of You Tube, Wafa Sultan, so bravely invented them from -- where was it? -- California, circa 2005.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:46 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

December 08, 2006

Surprising, the talent attracted: USG staffing in Iraq & MENA

I am generally uninterested in the new US Gov report on their self-made fiasco in Iraq, as it will likely be lost in the navel gazing party political whanking in the US -with all the aspects of a neo-Bolshevik circular firing squad - but in perusing published commentary I was struck by the following quote from a Washington Post arty (struck but not inherently surprised):

The report is replete with damning details about the administration's inept handling of Iraq. It notes, for instance, that only six people in the 1,000-person embassy in Baghdad can speak Arabic fluently. It recounts how the military counted 93 acts of violence in one day in July, when the group's own reexamination of the data found 1,100 acts of violence. "Good policy is difficult to make when information is systematically collected in a way that minimizes discrepancy with policy goals," the report says.

At this late stage in the game it is indeed striking that the US still can not mobilise sufficient human resources of quality and proper qualifications.

Continue reading "Surprising, the talent attracted: USG staffing in Iraq & MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:44 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

December 06, 2006

Iraq Study Group Report Released

Today the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group published its report that proposes a new course for the U.S. administration in Iraq, all neatly listed in 79 recommendations.

A pdf of the report can be downloaded here.

Having watched the one-hour news conference and read all 160 pages I am too bleary-eyed to write any detailed comments. In short, the report is very well done and - particularly against the backdrop of the past 5 years of U.S. policy towards Iraq and the Middle East as a whole - a remarkable document that everyone should read.

Now I'm waiting for the reaction from the White House.

Posted by raf* at 01:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 04, 2006

A Grand Bargain with Iran?

In 2003, as American troops were moving into Baghdad, Iran offered the United States a grand bargain. The deal offered was simple: Iran would not attempt to procure WMDs, stop supporting terrorism, cooperate in Iraq, and accept a two-state solution for Israel/Palestine, in return for a full normalization of relations with the United States, an end to sanctions, cooperation on technology, and a recognition of Iranian security concerns.

Continue reading "A Grand Bargain with Iran?"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 01:28 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

December 01, 2006

Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy

The slow motion disaster that is Iraq has come to bore me, now that I have written off personal interests there (although as an aside, now one doesn't cease to get offers to take part in US reconstruction - sorry boys, too late. In '03 I would have done it. Now you're 3 years down the road to utter catastrophe, not a bloody chance).

However, as part of the larger wreckage of US policy, that remains sadly a major but largely negative driver in the region (not due to overall intentions, but realism of how and on what schedule said intentions can be implemented - which is to say due to the utterly magical fairy-dust approach they insist on taking) one has to be interested in Iraq and US MENA policy which surrounds it and is in part driven by the fiasco.

Continue reading "Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

November 29, 2006

US & Iraq: Imbecilic Navel-Gazing as Strategy

I read and was told that the major US media (or to adopt the childishly imbecilic Neo-Bolshevik speak of the American blogs, "Mainstream Media") has finally gotten around to calling the Iraqi civil war, a civil war. I rather foolishly thought that this might be welcomed among the more cogent and cogniscent corners of online commentary as a breath of fresh air and a good point of departure for actually bloody well tackling the disaster looming in front of the US of A, rather than childishly whinging on about terminology and pretending if only they don't bloody admit how bad it is, some magical intervention will somehow rescue them from the now inevitable disaster. I do say invevitable, for the Americans have already lost - as the Soviets already had two or three years before they could bring themselves to admit it.

But no. Rather, even into the center regions of the American Whankatariat, idiotic, droolingly cretinous idiotic denial, and simple minded self regarding idiocy is the result. The essential objection as far as I can tell (once I peel away the piss-poor half-informed and 1/4 understood history of Shia and Sunni, of Arab and Kurd - typical "they've always been" rubbish) - is that calling a spade a spade may lead the US to flee the field.

Continue reading "US & Iraq: Imbecilic Navel-Gazing as Strategy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:24 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

November 22, 2006

MENA Moving Forward: Policy Shifts

This is something of an open thread, but motivated by my sensation that the there may be (on the margin) some meaningful reorientation of American policy, which for better or worse (often both) is a key external driver in the region, I thought we might have some thoughts on subjects worth discussing regarding future MENA developments. I personally have the penchant for the economic, but understand it is not of general interest.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

November 10, 2006

Global Gazing: MENA Echoes on US Election

As any number of MENA blogs can note, the US elections have been greeted in the region with a huge sense of relief, if only I would say from a rising sense of desperation with the Americans blundering about the region like a blind, maimed and lobotomised elephant.

Although I have been submerged in a potentially very profitable transaction as well as discussing with my new Managing Director carving out our operations and team from the Titanic (only a month on the job and the man is already on our side), I can attest that conversations over this week - with Americans, with Europeans, with above all MENA natives have all revolved around an expressed hope that the blundering incompetents in the US Presidential offices might finally give over some power to the realists.

Continue reading "Global Gazing: MENA Echoes on US Election"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:39 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

November 08, 2006

Rumsfeld Stepping Down

In the wake of popular dissatisfaction over the mishandling of Iraq (as shown in yesterday's elections), AP reports that Rumsfeld will be stepping down from his post as Secretary of Defense.

I'm sure members of our peanut gallery have opinions about potential shifts in US foreign policy now that Democrats have control of the House (and perhaps the Senate?). Feel free to yammer on and post links as things develop.

Posted by eerie at 01:04 PM | Comments (22) | TrackBack

October 28, 2006

On Iraq & Pre-War Predictions: What Do You Mean "We", Paleface?

Apologies to the old Lone Ranger joke. Clive Davis writes this lament of the disaster unfolding in Iraq. "It wasn't just the Bush team that made mistakes, of course. Didn't we all underestimate the challenge?" (emphasis added).

Ummm, no. That sentence may imply a whole new set of meanings for the words "we" and "all", hitherto unsuspected. Even my own neglected blog in early 2003 quoted this far-from-rare Jason Vest article from the (annoyingly) lefty mag The Nation that got it right. That article (and even little old me) were among so many others -- from every walk of life, punditry, as well as civilian and military industry, large and small -- who loudly forsaw everything, more or less. Not to mention our very own Aqoul curmudgeon. To the time machine!

Continue reading "On Iraq & Pre-War Predictions: What Do You Mean "We", Paleface?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:03 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

October 22, 2006

Spinning in different languages or proper adjusting of message to audience?

Following up on some small debates on MEMRI mendacity and accusations of doubletalk between English and Arabic on the part of Arabophone intellectuals, I found the following article from Reuters interesting, amusing and also thought-provoking: Diplomat acknowledges U.S. "arrogance" in Iraq.

The essence of the story, the head of US public diplomacy Near East bureau, Alberto Fernandez, apparently (I have been too busy to watch TV myself) acknowledged the US has bollixed up Iraq due to arrogance and stupidity. The US government has forthwith claimed (re the English) it is a misquote.

A moment to reflect on the problems of structuring messages and communicating between languages, based on the longer text of the same Reuters story from the NY Times Reuters feed.

[Update: Unsurprisingly this is showing signs of setting off, what was it called in comments, a stupid storm: I point to Bou Aardvark's note on the issue. I wonder if the stupid storm on the part of pornstarlet wannabes like Malkin will actually deprive the US of one its few capable interlocutors on the Arab Sats, in some cretinous recreation of Soviet style purges for not following party lines]

Continue reading "Spinning in different languages or proper adjusting of message to audience?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:23 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

October 16, 2006

Backers of Dovish American Jewish Initiative Deny Opposing AIPAC

When JTA ran a story last week about an initiative backed by George Soros (or not yet backed if you believe Rosner's reports below) and other powerful dovish American Jewish leaders, it noted that one of the purposes of the initiative would be to present a progressive counter to AIPAC. All of this seems perfectly reasonable to any reasonable American Jew. But the 900lb gorilla Goliath has taken notice of little David standing beneath him and he's roared his annoyance. As a result, it's humorous to see the erstwhile progressives scurrying like ants to backtrack:

Jewish organizational officials who have participated in the meetings said JTA's characterization of their aim in a story earlier this week, as an alternative to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, was wrong...

Those currently leading the effort say they're happy to work with AIPAC.

"My involvement is that Mort Halperin's an old friend," said Mel Levine, a former U.S. Democratic congressman who is now a high-powered West Coast lawyer. "Mort asked me to go to an initial exploratory meeting about a pro-Israel advocacy organization that would focus on a two-state solution, that would focus on Israel and was not in competition with anyone else."

That did not usurp AIPAC'S role of advocating for a strong U.S.-Israel alliance, Levine said.

Continue reading "Backers of Dovish American Jewish Initiative Deny Opposing AIPAC"

Posted by Richard Silverstein at 08:09 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 06, 2006

Petulance: MENA, American Magicalism & Infantilism

I noted our old amigo Abu Aardvark has a comment on Israeli presence on al Jazeera (and an apparent continued American boycott) that is worthy of consideration, as usual.

I frankly am at a loss to understand how the present American Administration is proceeding in region, other than by pure infantile magicalism. Refusing to talk to "bad actors" and essentially adopting a politico-diplomatic strategy that amounts to "I am going to hold my breath until you change and like me" hardly seems to be an appropriate strategy of a great power. But then considering the cretinous demarches to date, perhaps not talking is best.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:15 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 25, 2006

Leb Land & Recon, Back to Networks

Returning to a hint I made a month ago, I find on the newswires confirmation of the scheming re buying some street cred in Lebanon after the disastrous backing of 'transformation via Israeli shells' did such a lovely job of fucking American reputation into a cocked hat.

The USD 250 million of course is better than zero, but I am having a hard time seeing effectiveness given zero on the ground networks.

Hezbullah won, and even the backstopping effort isn't very good.

[Updated with links to actual entries supra, just to prove The Lounsbury is ahead of the curve]

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:17 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

September 19, 2006

Arar Commission Report Released

A quick note to draw attention to the release of the Maher Arar Commission report (helpful timeline available here). I had a chance to skim the report and the fact-finding document; neither one casts Canada's security services in a favorable light. The report is the result of immense public pressure to investigate Canada's role in Arar's "extraordinary rendition" by US authorities and subsequent torture at the hands of Syrian military intelligence. Now that Arar has been cleared of any wrongdoing, the media is having a field day over the commission report's scathing indictment of the Mounties.

It is of course important to note that the commission's ability to gather information was limited by the US State Department's refusal to cooperate. In light of this decision, I found it rather telling that portions of the report were censored to protect "international relations" as well as national security. In any case, it was found that Canadian authorities did not participate in Arar's actual deportation to Syria, though the intel supplied to US authorities likely played a part in their decisionmaking.

Continue reading "Arar Commission Report Released"

Posted by eerie at 10:47 PM | Comments (26) | TrackBack

September 15, 2006

Futile Bollocks and Banking

Although I remain rather too busy to contribute as I would like and should, the Generator is too embarassing to have as the lead item, so a comment on an important piece of idiocy by the Americans: their attempt to shut the Iranians out of the financial markets unilaterally: US threatens further action against Iranian banks.

I frankly find such interventions borderline retarded, as well as self-defeating, leaving aside the willy nilly confusion of Hezbullah with al Qaeda in such rhetoric. Incoherence.

Continue reading "Futile Bollocks and Banking"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 27, 2006

Losing and Winning: Constituency Service

Roula Khalaf, who I may add is simply one of the must-read journos on Middle East has a fine profile in FT on Hezbullah's reconstruction efforts

I know from work I am engaged in right now that this will send France, US and others into a tizzy.

But there is no beating them. Quick roll out of Western institutional aid is simply not going to be competitive, because the networks are not there.

Where the damage is, the institutions are Hezbullah.

Continue reading "Losing and Winning: Constituency Service"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:59 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 26, 2006

Returning to Agit Prop

Without further comment, I share:
"I Was a Propaganda Intern in Iraq"
Electronic Iraq - USA: He was just 22 years old and he was an intern at the Lincoln Group, the Washington-based government contractor.

Contra my usual impression of "activist" sites, this particular article is fairly well-done and interesting. I will note that the intern's comments match my own impressions and what I heard through other sources.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 24, 2006

Giddiness: MENA Private Sector & New America Foundation

In reading the first paragraphs of a Washington Post Op Ed by a fellow at the New America Foundation, entitled The Real 'New Middle East' I thought I was going to be pleased, sadly though the author took real observations and mixed them in with simple-minded swallowing of corporate and governmental PR spin to produce absurd tripe typical of the wide-eyed neophyte or the paid propagandist.

A pity as the author's main thesis in a less over-done and gullible form has merit.
_{Cross posted from The Lounsbury}

Continue reading "Giddiness: MENA Private Sector & New America Foundation"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 17, 2006

MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans

While I confess this note is in part motivated by my desire to have an excuse to share this cartoon from the Moroccan business daily, l'Economiste from yesterday's - 16 Aug edition. This was emailed to me yesterday, and is worthy of a good laugh, I thought it also worthwhile to undertake some reflexions on both the subject matter and some generalisations about practical issues.

[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]

Continue reading "MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

August 11, 2006

Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)

The rising chorus of commentators horrified at the American-Israeli desire to play a self-indulgent Thelma & Louise drive-off-the-cliff policy in MENA continues to grow.

Ranging from a late echo to my own "Guns of August" allusions, in the Washington Post yesterday (although the lunatic Thelma & Louise approach is reaffirmed by Gingrich and Krauthammer today), to Roula Khalaf's analysis in the Financial Times last week, to intelligent Israeli analysts realising that this 1982 business is not going to get any better, whatever the utterly magical thinking going on in Bush and Olmert governmental quarters, to The New York Times (in a generally decent if somewhat superficial review) noting the disastrous impact this useless war is having on American policy interests.

Continue reading "Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 03, 2006

Creative Destruction & Own Goals - "The New Middle East is Already Dead"

Text: "Uncle Sam wants to 'educate' our political parties"
TV: "War in Lebanon - Massacre"
US: "Lesson 1, turn off the telly."

The entry title comes from a radio report I just heard on RFI. The above is from a Moroccan business journal online, l'Economiste, normally a fairly liberal publication. Fairly amusing in the end, and illustrative of the spill over effects of the public US diplomatic position.

Continue reading "Creative Destruction & Own Goals - "The New Middle East is Already Dead""

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:55 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 01, 2006

Baalbek (Updated: 2 Aug)

The madness continues.

Sats (Arab and Euro) are reporting Israel is attempting an air-mobile operation in Baalbek (Mid-Lebanon, Beqaa).

The sole value in this entire madness is a near perfect illustration of tactical considerations, poor leadership and domestic politics getting the better of cold-blooded rational calculation of state interest.

[Update: watching Hezbullah spokesman on al Jazeerah, I found it interesting that in ranting on about Arab occupied lands he finessed the issue of Israel - i.e. cited Golan, Chebaa, Gaza, but not Israel qua Israel. Artful that was. Added further, caught on BBC World Service interview w Leb rep, who ostentatiously refused to take a bait to whinge on about Syria but was highly US critical]

Continue reading "Baalbek (Updated: 2 Aug)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:19 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 31, 2006

Gross Incompetence & Contempt: Blindness on Lebanon

Although the macabre dance that is the war in Lebanon continues a depressingly predictable shuffle, the utter dilettentism that is the current American administration's diplomatic efforts - although efforts almost grants their clumsy, amateurish statements and reactive myopia too much dignity - continue to be breath taking. This AM, after the fine little Qana Bis blowing up of little girls (unsportingly exceeding certain understandings), I find myself greeted by the news that the amazingly incompetent Rice - I do officially take back everything positive I said with respect to her - suddenly finding that the time is right for a ceasefire. I am not sure that circumstances more detrimental to the image of the Americans in the region could have been fabricated by an enemy (except perhaps a 'transformation' statement). Of course, to be fair, at least she had that modicum of sense to stop the "permanent conditions" as a "pre-condition" idiocy.

Continue reading "Gross Incompetence & Contempt: Blindness on Lebanon"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:36 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

July 26, 2006

Slowly, Slowly into the Morass We Return (Updated)

The agonising replay (is it farce this time or tragedy?) of 82 continues. The New York Times article Israel Finding a Difficult Foe in Hezbollah amply illustrates the idiocy that is this Guns of August replay.

It is hard to decide what is most depressing. The predictability of the slow, inching back into the morass only exited in 2000, the delusional commentary from America which seems to have utterly abandoned critical thought, or the certainty of nasty blow-back as time goes on in this utterly (except for Hizbullah) Pyrrhic battle.

Continue reading "Slowly, Slowly into the Morass We Return (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:18 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

July 25, 2006

Magical Thinking, Purely Wishful

North Korea. It lacks exactness, but that is the precise analogy to the utterly bizarre, divorced from reality, unrealistic and wishful thinking world in which US policy on Lebanon and Israel is occuring. Magical, wishful and eventually will be forced to meet hard reality. Sad that hundreds will die pointlessly in the process, but c'est la vie, ach ghdi ngoulek, larab fqet, hmir bla qma.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:13 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

July 24, 2006

Skillful Asymmetry & Spin (Israel-Lebanon Land War)

In the twilight realm that is the competing spin on the Israeli-Leb crisis, it is hard even to know where to begin, when our own yellow satire barely outdoes actual American commentary justifying civilian massacres.

However, I would suggest that the Superpower's bizarro-world approach to the crisis, infected as it is with utterly magical thinking as it reportedly is shopping for a 'coalition of the willing' [my term my dears] to "disarm" Hizbullah, and uniquely confirm its own allies as Quislings... [link restored]

The Financial Times, with fine understatement reports this evening that Rice ideas for peace disappoint in Beirut, although that may be about as much news as Israeli and Arab leaders don't see eye to eye.

Continue reading "Skillful Asymmetry & Spin (Israel-Lebanon Land War)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:36 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

July 21, 2006

Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)

Although less impressive than the scenes you can catch of the Arab Sats, this Al Jazeerah arty (Arabic) Continued Criticisms of Israeli Hostilities Against Lebanon and Palestine / استمرار التنديد بالعدوان الإسرائيلي على لبنان وفلسطين conveys in pictures (and of course text) the Islamic world reaction after the Friday prayers. The demos shown on the telly in Amman, Cairo, and Damascus were particularly large relative to the security presence. The article also notes the khutub (sermons) in particular in Baghdad; oddly perhaps the Israelis will provide Iraqis an inter-ethnic rally point.

Continue reading "Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

July 19, 2006

America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary

I sometimes wonder what it is about American media that leads to quite such utterly delusional commentary on the Middle East. Following up on my initial gut reaction, some more thoughts on the utterly surreal American whanking. (see also Lounsbury)

Drawing on The Times commentary blog, Times News Desk: World comment: how does it end?:

Continue reading "America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:00 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

July 02, 2006

Jihadist Prudence: Gitmo Tribunal Decision

For those interested, a text of the Hamdan v. Rumsfeld decision can be found here. That's the very recent U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down the military tribunals President Bush established by Executive Order for prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The decision is a bit convoluted given that the Court had to first torture the interpretation of a very specific law which prohibited courts from hearing these habeas corpus petitions made by Gitmo prisoners. (The Court reasons that the prohibition doesn't apply to those petitions, such as Hamdan's, which had already been filed when that anti-habeas law was passed in 2005.) While I favor the overall result of the case, I do share dissenting Justice Thomas' pique at the majority's sleight of hand jurisprudence and their evasion of the application of plain language and common sense on that particular issue.

Continue reading "Jihadist Prudence: Gitmo Tribunal Decision"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:38 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

June 18, 2006

Somalia: Islamic Courts & Women's Progress

A quick note on a interesting arty in The Washington Post on the role of women in backing The Islamic Courts movement that seems to be well on its way to taking power in Somalia and displacing the "secular" warlords.

If there is one item that most at once irritates and amuses me about Western and American commentary specifically is the weird gullibility in the usage of "secular" versus "Islamist" - although in a sense it is relavatory of why secularism has or is failing in the MENA region and many parts of the Islamic world - where "secular" seems to mean "any corrupt bunch of idiots presently in power who are not overtly and ostentatiously 'Islamist' in political orientation."

If this is the "secularism" being offered, and indeed backed by the West and America specifically, does anyone think it should be suprising that, whatever bitter individuals like Hirsi Ali Magaan say for the consumption of the fearful Westerner, secularism is losing ground?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:36 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

May 23, 2006

Morocco The Model! (Or Our Superficial Stereotypes Are Poorly Informed)

I stumbled across a funny (to me) "model" arty in the ideo-rag (I am not a fan of ideological papers) The Weekly Standard after stumbling across this attempt at writing on Islam, Elsewhere in Islam, itself deserving in comment (acerbic but fair comment, as I think the arty needs a whack in the side of the head on some factual and interpretive issues, but it's at least an honest effort): The Moroccan Model: A beacon of hope in the Islamic world.

I am sure regular readers are aware I am a fan of the Maghreb generally and Morocco in particular (although I have a warm spot in my heart for Tunisia as well, and why not Libya and Algeria as well?), so perhaps I should receive a fannish article on Morocco warmly. There is certainly something to be said for noticing that the Islamic or even the Arab or even the Mediterranean Arab world consists of countries besides Egypt and Saudi Arabia. And some of the article I agree with or perhaps better, some of the article did not lead me to think of running the author over with a car to spare the world further ill-informed bad writing.

Continue reading "Morocco The Model! (Or Our Superficial Stereotypes Are Poorly Informed)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:40 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

May 13, 2006

Ahmadinejad's 1953 Reference: The Skeleton in the Regime's Closet Reaching Out?

As a followup to discussion of Mr. Ahmadinejad's love letter to George Bush, I want to note a specific reference he made in the letter. That reference is to the 1953 coup by the Iranian military that restored the Shah of Iran. That coup ousted Mohammed Mossadegh, a nationalist figure who had forced the Shah to retreat to exile, and who had led the nationalization of British oil-company operations in Iran. It is no secret that the US CIA played a heavy part in the events of the 1953 coup.

Continue reading "Ahmadinejad's 1953 Reference: The Skeleton in the Regime's Closet Reaching Out?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:06 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

May 02, 2006

America's great "success"

Government spin is always a wondrous thing, but rarely can one enjoy something so blatant as this:

Washington -- Thanks to the successes of the U.S.-led multinational counterterrorism effort, terror organizations are now smaller and more sophisticated, and more challenging than ever to bring to justice, says Ambassador Henry Crumpton, coordinator of the State Department’s counterterrorism office.

"Successes" that make an enemy more dangerous and even harder to fight? Yep, we're all immensely thankful for those.

Continue reading "America's great "success""

Posted by secretdubai at 09:14 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

April 29, 2006

Dubai Buy II: Revenge of the UAE

According to the New York Times:

President Bush is expected on Friday to announce his approval of a deal under which a Dubai-owned company would take control of nine plants in the United States that manufacture parts for American military vehicles and aircraft, say two administration officials familiar with the terms of the deal. . . .

Continue reading "Dubai Buy II: Revenge of the UAE"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 22, 2006

Peace in our time?

Let us hope this means an end to talk of airstrikes and invasions. I do not much care for the idea of being caught up in the Gulf's fourth shooting war since 1980.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 02:58 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

April 21, 2006

Communications: Arab Media, American Officials, how often shall the twain meet?

Our fine friend, the Father of Aardvarks, has had an excellent series on US officials appearing on the ArabSats of late (as well as here re funding of Arab media, which merits some discussion here at 'Aqoul, if only so as to leave behind the odd convos about the Soviet Union).

However, the subject is in fact a serious one, which is the engagement of the US (and other Western officials) with the ArabSats and other Arab media. Abu Aardvark does concentrate exclusively on the US, but the question is a wider one. That being said, the US also has unique challenges in the area.

Continue reading "Communications: Arab Media, American Officials, how often shall the twain meet?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 28, 2006

Rumsfeld notices US particularly unskilled in agitprop.

I've noted this any number of times, so it's not particularly news, however I was touched when I saw Rumsfeld: U.S. Struggles to Combat Anti-American Propaganda.

Continue reading "Rumsfeld notices US particularly unskilled in agitprop."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:09 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

March 15, 2006

Observing Other Societies: The Limits of Direct Contact & Idealistic Presumptions

I sincerely hesitate to endorse the genially and serially bigoted John Derbyshire but this rather good column about how visitors and observers of other societies can be dangerously wrong is actually rather good. It does explain alot of presumptive well-intentioned idiocy(blogosphere and printosphere) that masquerades as informed commentary on MENA, and Iraq in particular.

Continue reading "Observing Other Societies: The Limits of Direct Contact & Idealistic Presumptions"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 10, 2006

DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back

I shall make this briefish note as the DPW fiasco continues to steam ahead. In many ways this is good for me personally as I expect increased in-region / non-US flows for MENA money. But it is bad for investment in the US, bad for US MENA policy and reveals as clearly as clear can be the deep vein of anti-Arab bigotry hiding beneath the surface in the United States. A loss for moderation, a loss for state security interests and a loss for economic efficiency and investment in key assets. Yes, bravo to ignorant know-nothing racist jingoism. This blows back not only to commerce, but also to our pious middle conversation, make no mistake about it.

Continue reading "DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:35 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

March 09, 2006

Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia

Well, the irrational forces of bigotted know-nothing nativism and bigotted Islamophobia won out, DPW has finally said fuck it, keep poorly run ports, we'll take the profitable parts of P&O , or as the statement went,

“Because of the strong relationship between the United Arab Emirates and the US, and to preserve that relationship...DP World will transfer fully the US operation of P&O Ports North America Inc to a United States entity,” Edward Bilkey, the company’s chief operating officer, said in a statement.

Only yesterday the head, Mr Sharaf,

acknowledged ... that the US facilities were a small part of the deal and less profitable than other P&O container terminals. His remarks came as the White House appeared to soften its support for the deal and the House of Representatives pressed ahead with plans to block the transaction.

It is also of note that private equity groups, smelling blood in the water,

have approached DP World about buying the US operations, people familiar with the matter said. Industry observers said logical candidates included Blackstone and Macquarie, the Australian bank.

Well, mark one of up for the forces of blind bigotry and irrational anti-Arab xenophobia with all the dark hand waving about "connexions" and "associations" and the utter inability to distinguish between Saudiyah and the rest of the Arab world.

Continue reading "Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:08 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Bye, Bye Dubai Buy: DPW Bows Out of US Leases

Dubai Ports World (DPW), the United Arab Emirates firm that bought a British ports operating company which owned operating leases in some USA ports, has just agreed to relinquish those interests. This will probably end a political firestorm that {irony}had absolutely nothing to do with anti-Arab or anti-Muslim xenophobia, ignorance, racism, or other factors.{/irony} It is not clear what it could be that DPW is getting in exchange for divesting itself of about 10% of its newly acquired assets, but, if {irony} US Senator Chuck Schumer is right: Could it be . . . Satan?* {/irony}

"This is obviously a promising development, but the devil's in the details," he said. "Those of us who feel strongly about this issue believe that the U.S. part of the British company should have no connection to the United Arab Emirates or DP World."

*Apologies for possibly obscure reference to a catchphrase of an old character on USA "Saturday Night Live".

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:41 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

March 06, 2006

Poll: Oh My Iraq, Civil War (ho hum)

In the news today is the stunning, shocking news, that, ahem, Iraq is sliding towards outright civil war (according the sharply sensitive and informed American people) I simply thought this should be an opportunity to say, well, no kidding:

Continue reading "Poll: Oh My Iraq, Civil War (ho hum)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:00 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

March 05, 2006

Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)

Sadly my work is distracting me from the fun of the ongoing Bigotted Know Nothing Nativist Ignoramus Mob Madness surrounding DPW's takeover of UK's P&O and the incidental acquisition of the operating leases for port operations at six major US ports (although in the UK and globally sanity has prevailed*), I wanted to augment my dear friend and colleague, Secret Dubai's post on Israeli support for Dubai and DPW with specific reference to the Israeli shipping line Zim's statement of support; I should say it comes as no surprise to anyone with experience in the region that some Israelis would step forward on this, even in a politically delicate situation - not so oddly it is the moderates on all sides trying to do business that know each other.

Continue reading "Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:57 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 25, 2006

Right Punditocracy Defends UAE Port Deal

Not to sully Aqoul too much with USA domestic blustery, but it appears some of the heavy weight right punditocracy is weighing in against knee-jerk opposition to the Dubai Ports World indirect purchase of US ports operations via its purchase of a British company's interests.

Bill O'Reilly: "For now, the cold truth is that the U.S.A. will not win the war on terror without the help of nations like the United Arab Emirates. We simply cannot afford to fire that nation. If we lose these people, we'll lose the war."

Lawrence Kudlow: "This whole brouhaha surrounding the Bush administration’s green-light to a United Arab Emirates company slated to manage six major U.S. ports has nothing to do with protecting homeland security. Allow me to give it its proper name: Islamophobia."

Continue reading "Right Punditocracy Defends UAE Port Deal"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:17 PM | Comments (25) | TrackBack

February 19, 2006

Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger

The emerging US controversy over Dubai Port World (an atrocious name I may add, even DP World is bad - hereafter at 'Aqoul, DPW) buying out historic UK port operator P&O - which incidentally includes a portfolio of US assets.

That unfortunate fact - a portfolio of US assets, which is to say management interests in six US ports on the United States Eastern Sea Board - has occasioned the exposure of a vein of ugly sentiment and public commentary, as well as typical for the "blogosphere" blind and ill-informed reaction. Another confirmation that Right and Left blog authors’ sneering with respect to the real media is badly misplaced.

This post – which will be updated and moved forward as I develop it – is intended to correct the poorly-informed xenophobic knee-jerking on Left and Right.

(I note in the interim that the fine American habit of turning everything into a lawsuit has emerged already as Maimi "Firm Sues to Block Foreign Port Takeover" per the WP, which pimps the security fallacy.)

Continue reading "Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:00 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack

February 17, 2006

MENA Investment & FDI: Oh my, they control our ports (Updated: Dubai & US Ports)

Foreign direct investment often provokes among the less than economically literate frightened reactions about loss of control - sometimes justified but in general, not. That politicians exploit tribal fears of foreigners controlling the jewels of the nation (whichever nation) is perhaps not surprising. It is always depressing. As we pass through a small storm of Islamic versus Western tensions, it is not surprising that the forces of unreason, emotive fear sweeping MENA, etc. have had an influence.

[Update: related post chez my Lounsbury den of iniquity, with respect to blog commentary and xenophobia, a small obs and question posed.]

[Update II: My coyness aside, a discussion of the Dubai Port World - US Ports issue broke at at the above commentary linked at Lounsbury - after some obligatory beating of a sensless commentator sensless.]

Continue reading "MENA Investment & FDI: Oh my, they control our ports (Updated: Dubai & US Ports)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:56 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 16, 2006

Democracy as a Weapon

Recently there has been a fair bit of handwringing over both the Hamas victory in the Palestinian territories and the Muslim Brotherhood’s strong showing in Egypt’s parliamentary elections. US policymakers are likely not pleased by the fact that Islamist MPs outnumber secular ones by nearly two to one in Iraq, and that early hopefuls such as Ahmad Chalabi’s Iraqi National Congress bloc failed to secure a single seat in recent elections.

In this context, it is mildly disturbing to see Farhat Asaad, a Hamas spokesman, point out this uncomfortable truth:

"First, I thank the United States that they have given us this weapon of democracy. But there is no way to retreat now. It's not possible for the U.S. and the world to turn its back on an elected democracy."

Continue reading "Democracy as a Weapon"

Posted by eerie at 09:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Propaganda, Iraq and Gaming - and Future Funds

Sadly I can not comment on this, other than to share the story and note that it confirms my observation months back that the Lincoln Group story was not a dark 'Neo Con' tale but one of dilletantes.

Quick Rise for Purveyors of Propaganda in Iraq

It is of course illustrative of the general problem with the Bush Administration's efforts in Iraq and MENA. Clumsy cronyism with amateurish dilletantes. A bit of cronyism here and there will happen. Human beings are human. The sins of the Bush Administration lie in their lack of competence in executing even cronyism, not as the simple minded Left would have it, in dark Right wing plots. A pity, I would enjoy a competent if unpleasant US government in world affaires. An incompetent, bumbling, often cretinously self-deluded US Government makes me life harder, and I don't enjoy that.

At least I can add that the Fund for the Future, that much vaunted initiative announced at the G8 meeting in Dubai is in fact a quietly dead letter for the moment. Ms Cheney got her panties all wet too soon. Perhaps the idea may get reworked to something vaguely rational.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:33 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

February 15, 2006

Maghreb & Rumsfeld (Updated)

Following up on my earlier post on Rumsfeld and his commenton the Maghreb, a somewhat clearer article from FT on the trip:

Rumsfeld treads warily to enlist north Africans in war against terrorism

A bit of commentary on the idiocies (required in large part, but still idiocies):

Continue reading "Maghreb & Rumsfeld (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:12 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism

I am not the biggest fan of the US Administration and its Middle East policy, that is certain. Indeed, I rather consider them a bunch of congenital and serial incompetent bunglers whose policies may be described with Talleyrand's "Worse than a crime, a blunder."

One might expect, then, I might be in agreement with the opinions voiced by the Democratic party opposition in this article from Reuters:

US bungles Middle East policy, lawmakers tell Rice
By Sue Pleming

Well, I am not. Sadly the criticism, rather than being well-founded, is largely based on the same kind of simple-minded magical thinking and wishful-thinking-as-analysis that has led the Bush Administration astray so very badly so many times. Criticism about Hamas rather than Fatah winning the elections in Palestine, for example. As if the US has a magic wand to wave to make the 'good guys' of the moment win (or forgetting that using such wands that do exist to achieve 'victory' for one's favoured side can be rather Pyrrhic, ending up with damaged goods).

Continue reading "Bungled Mideast Policy or Wrongheaded Criticism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

February 14, 2006

Working Diligently on Own Goals: Bringing Down Hamas

A report from The New York Times on supposed Israeli-US scheming to bring down the Hamas government and force new elections to allow a new Fatah/PLO government in is superbly disheartening if true. I certainly would suspect the Israelis of plotting the same as a certain percentage of Israeli officials have never quite gotten it into their heads that Palestinian society isn't completely manipulable quasi-tribal society Israel conquered in the 1960s, I would hope that the Bush Administration has a trifle more sense.

Continue reading "Working Diligently on Own Goals: Bringing Down Hamas"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:11 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 13, 2006

More Reasons Why Torture is a Bad Idea

Because junior military personnel can't be trusted to have the common sense to know when they are going to kill people, that's why:

The two Afghans were found dead within days of each other, hanging by their shackled wrists in isolation cells at the prison in Bagram, north of Kabul. An Army investigation showed they were treated harshly by interrogators, deprived of sleep for days, and struck so often in the legs by guards that a coroner compared the injuries to being run over by a bus...

But really, we can't blame the poor kids, can we, because how could they be expected to know what rules to follow?

Continue reading "More Reasons Why Torture is a Bad Idea"

Posted by evaluna at 06:55 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 12, 2006

Dim, Dim, Dim: Maghreb not an al Qaeda kinda place because...

Leaving aside the main thrust of the arty in question from The Financial Times (that being the US planning or considering to sell arms to the nasty little clique of generals in Algeria), the American Specialist in Idiotic Statements & Failed Occupations, had this to say about the Maghreb and al Qaeda:

Before arriving in Tunisia on Saturday, Mr Rumsfeld said he did not believe the Maghreb was a likely place for al-Qaeda to take root because extremism was not tolerated by the governments of Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria.

Bloody idiot. What a complete bloody idiot. Why has this completely deluded fucking incompetent egocentric bumbler not been axed? Or in the alternative, how long can the American policy establishment continue its deluded focus on States alone?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:54 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Morocco: Democracy, Facile Journo Idiocy on Moderation and Islamism

As a general matter, English language materials on the Maghreb almost never fail to annoy me. Here The Washington Post manages to do so: Feud With King Tests Freedoms In Morocco.

Having long had ... how to put it? Contact? Yes, contact with the group in question (long story, goes back a long ways), Adl wal Ihsane and been familiar with the Yassines, I have rather mixed feelings about the conflict described in the article. On one hand, being generally in favour of bringing Islamist groups into politics, I am generally in favour of engagement with Adl wa Ihsane. On the other hand, this particular dispute and the disingenous spin the Yassines are using rather annoys - well more the gullible lapping up of the same in certain anglophone quarters rather annoys.

Continue reading "Morocco: Democracy, Facile Journo Idiocy on Moderation and Islamism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:41 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 07, 2006

In a Nutshell: Problems in US Guiding MENA

In USA political lingo, the author of the comment quoted below is a "paleocon" and not a neocon, and he is English not American in origin, but his observation fairly and honestly renders a mentality revealing why it is more likely than not that any effort at MENA management by people over here (USA) is going to hit a fundamental snag, or two, or three. The commentt does appear in the main blog of a leading pro-Administration neoconnish mag. And I can assure it is an honest assessment of far broader passive sentiment, but more bluntly expressed:

The lead story was about a ship disaster in the Red Sea. From the headline picture, it looked like a cruise ship. I therefore assumed that some people very much like the Americans I went cruising with last year were the victims. I went to the news story. A couple of sentences in, I learned that the ship was in fact a ferry, the victims all Egyptians. I lost interest at once, and stopped reading. I don't care about Egyptians

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:39 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

January 29, 2006

Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences

The election of Hamas has set off quite a lot of overdone hand wringing with respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and with respect to 'democracy promotion.'

I am going to ignore the I-P conflict as an endless toothache, although frankly in the medium term this is probably a boon as Hamas seems likely to be a more effective player than the corrupt and broken PLO/Fatah.

Rather, a few words on democracy promotion in the Middle East and North Africa.

The first words are, I am no fan of it, and frankly largely do not believe in it on the terms that it is pimped to the general public, etc. However, the handwringing post-Hamas victory requires some comment.

Continue reading "Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:03 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

January 26, 2006

Palestine: Hamas

The results appear to give Hamas a strong electoral position, which is not surprising if one had one's ears to the ground - despite the Bush Administration apparently sad and Johnny come lately intervention on the side of the sick old man, Fatah.

Here is the rub made clear, really democratic elections are going to produce these kinds of results. If one is going to pimp simple minded democracy, than one has to ive with them. I have met enough Hamas people to suspect that they can in fact be dealt with. It's better optics in the end to try and fail, the exclude which merely feeds into Hamas cycle of popularity.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:53 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

January 19, 2006

US Diplo Service: Out into the Field She Says

This is very good news for the US diplo service, and long over-due. Will make my diplo friends very happy.

The Washington Post arty reports:

Diplomats Will Be Shifted to Hot Spots
Rice Also Plans to Elevate USAID Chief
By Glenn Kessler and Bradley Graham
Thursday, January 19, 2006

My first comment is that all the US diplos ...no, sorry all the US diplos that I have respected over the years... have bitterly complained about the current US diplo service organisation and disincentives to "get out" and as well master languages (yes, learn languages to get little brownie points on the fiscal scale, but not master, and why with the bizarro rotation system that puts rare Arabic speakers in Beijing for years at a time, and vice versa).

Those few US diplos who have defended the system rather struck me as bureaucrats, although usually far more straight up than the delightfully corrupt ones I liked, like my EU colleagues

Continue reading "US Diplo Service: Out into the Field She Says"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:40 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 12, 2006

US Military, Cultural Blindness, and Iraq Failure [Updated 12 January 2006: excellent FT expansion]

This article seems to have attracted little attention, for all that it has some amusing observations as well as indicative responses from US Mil: Briton criticises US Army for cultural ignorance, moralistic self-righteousness, unproductive micromanagement, unwarrented optimism - in short, very typically American "can do" self delusion that typified across the board failure by CPA-Iraq.

However, backward looking is less important than forward. Forward is the US Army/US DoD/US Mil reaction to what I found to be well-placed criticism I heard (differently framed) from my US Mil amigos. Not for dislike of their troopies, in frustration of the lack of prepration of said troopies for the real problems - inability to pull out of the entrenched frameworks. I wrote early on that I feared this. Sadly, it came out as I thought.

Update: The Financial Times as a somewhat better article on the underlying article (which I have now skimmed in its original):

British officer blisters US Army in Iraq critique
By Reuters
Published: January 12 2006 09:15

While largely of the same thrust, it does add a few more easily accessible comments which I will add below.

Continue reading "US Military, Cultural Blindness, and Iraq Failure [Updated 12 January 2006: excellent FT expansion]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:34 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

January 11, 2006

On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,

Via our dear friend, Father of Aardvarks 'a comment on Gerecht on Iraqi payola', found 'Hearts and Minds' in Iraq: As History Shows, Ideas Matter More Than Who Pays to Promote Them leads me to make a comment on influence and media from a business standpoint.

Continue reading "On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:30 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

January 09, 2006

Bremer Speaks on Iraq: The Buck Stops Over There Somewhere

The Guardian reports that "Paul Bremer, who led the US civilian occupation authority in Iraq after the 2003 invasion, has admitted that the Americans 'didn't really see' the threat coming from insurgents in the country." Shoot, I did, and I'm an American; and so did lots of others. Meanwhile, "he also criticised President George Bush and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, saying they had not listened to his concerns about the quality of Iraq's army, and that ultimately the White House bore responsibility for decisions that had led to the current violence."

I leave it to those with better inside and up close knowledge, some of whom are not far from this very blogspace, to evaluate the rest.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 07:56 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

December 20, 2005

On Iraq, Elections, Spying and US Media Coverage

Being back in the land of tubby supersized people is reminding me what completely atrocious news coverage is available in the US broadcast media. The shrieking exageration that seems to be the baseline for any and all stories is painful to watch.

Truly painful. It doesn't seem particularly ideologically focused, despite the endless whinging I have read online in blogs and the like (which one may take, including I may add this one as mere navel gazing, and the pretension among some in the "blogosphere" that they are bringing new standards is absurd and laughable... although given broadcast media in the US of A....). Rather, it strikes me as simply bad professional practice.

Continue reading "On Iraq, Elections, Spying and US Media Coverage"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:26 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 18, 2005

Yemen, Democracy and Stupidity

U.S. Ideals Meet Reality in Yemen
By David Finkel
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, December 18, 2005; A01

An interesting if excessively personalised article on the ludicrous Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) initiative and other US Gov "democratisation" efforts in the MENA region.

Continue reading "Yemen, Democracy and Stupidity"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:53 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

December 13, 2005

Joseph Nye the PR Guy: "Soft Power" in Iraq

Just saw Joseph Nye speak on the subject of “Can Democracy Defeat Terrorism?”, a talk which ended up being mostly about Iraq and what U.S. policy should be in that neck of the woods. "Soft power" is his term for what in other fields of endeavor is sometimes called “hearts and minds,” or maybe “public relations”- the idea that convincing people of the merit of your position by diplomatic means is more effective than doing so by force, and at a lower cost.

Continue reading "Joseph Nye the PR Guy: "Soft Power" in Iraq"

Posted by evaluna at 11:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

December 03, 2005

Torture, U.S. Foreign Policy, and International Law: The Truth Can Sting

I had the opportunity this week to hear John Yoo, the author of the infamous U.S. Justice Department torture memo speak in justification of physical mistreatment of alleged Al-Qaeda operatives because they are ostensibly not protected by the Geneva Conventions, debate a prominent human rights law expert on the legality of this practice under U.S. and international law. (Disclosure: I’ve known Doug Cassel professionally for years, and in a prior life was privileged to provide interpretation services for his expert testimony in political asylum cases.) This memo has been used by the Bush administration to justify interrogation methods which any normal person with morals would agree constitute mistreatment of alleged Al-Qaeda detainees in Afghanistan and Guantánamo.

Continue reading "Torture, U.S. Foreign Policy, and International Law: The Truth Can Sting"

Posted by evaluna at 10:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

December 02, 2005

Guantanamo: Biographies of prisoners

The fact that this report appears in the professional journal of the US military may deprive it of credibility in some corners and augment it in others. But the well-written and edited account gives an overview of the self-reported biographies of about 600 young men held prisoner in the controversial US detention facility at Guantanamo, Cuba, most of whom were pre-9/11 volunteers for jihad and were the trainees and foot soldiers in various Afghan camps run by al-Qaeda and friends. Although the author-analyst at times strays into the silly and stereotyped (the last paragraphs get downright stilted, for example, just ignore), she provides a compassionate and thorough view.

Some interesting things of note:

Continue reading "Guantanamo: Biographies of prisoners"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:05 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

November 20, 2005

Surfacing on Iraq

Having begun this weekend with some fine work on valuation documents for Gulf area firms, a little bit of coughing up blood, and the tedious work of creating a matrix to figure out what the bloody hell I have among pile of bloody Arabic financial reporting, I thought I might take a moment to comment on the chatter about Iraq and the US policy optoins.

Frankly, most of the discussion rather strikes me as surreal navel gazing delusionally disconnected from the evident reality in Iraq.

As I have been indicating for a rather long time, Iraq long ago (say early 2004) entered into a 'Lebanese logic' which rather made the creeping civil war situation in Iraq, that is clear for anyone with eye to see, inevitable.

Now, the simple minded I suppose expect(ed) this to explode all at once. It has not and will not. Rather, as in Lebanon, it will creep forward in fits and starts until it is undeniably there for even the most deluded. The self segregation, the inter-community killings and hardening of lines despite decades of friendship, etc., that is already ongoing and there is frankly nothing substantial in terms of Iraqi dynamics counter-weighing this. Iraqi dynamics are all that count, not Americans running around claiming idiotic body counts, not hand waving pseudo-political excercises masquerading as democracy to please the gullible Westerners who think such things have meaning in such circumstances, not anything but Iraqi social dynamics.

There is, in short, nothing that is substantively running against the power dynamic of the hard men with guns. Nothing, period, regardless of the idiotic self-deluded happy talk I have seen now for three fucking years running. Good news from Iraq, indeed. Even in the depths of any civil war one can find "good news" - it's intelligent analysis that gets one understanding.

Continue reading "Surfacing on Iraq"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:37 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

November 08, 2005

US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]

The item I have refered to in the past is now public:
A Ludicrously Bad Idea

The key item here is this:

"The U.S. wants to see some success before further expansion. It envisions attracting board members with the clout -- names being bandied about include Jack Welch and Robert Rubin -- to get Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak on the phone to complain, for example, that he needs to free up pharmaceutical prices if a private drug industry is to flourish in Egypt."

Fucking stupid ass concept. Getting your fund involved in these kind of politics is a disastrous way to invest.

UPDATE: Arty text below with extended commentary.

Continue reading "US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

October 28, 2005

Ahmadinejad and Israel

What's going on in Iran? First the country's president calls for Israel to be "wiped off the map." Naturally, this doesn't go down well at all internationally, with the Israelis going so far as to call for Iran's expulsion from the UN. So Iran's Moscow embassy issues a statement saying the president didn't mean to "speak up in such sharp terms," and we are reminded that such statements are made all the time during rallies but don't really mean anything.

So the new president made a stupid diplomatic error, not realizing his new position makes his words carry more weight. And after his country's ambassadors are summoned to various European capitals to explain their government's actions, all this will die down, right? So then why is Iran stupidly upping the ante by ordering its diplomats in Western countries to launch protests there against Europe's attitudes towards 'Zionist crimes'? My own take is that Iran's foreign policy, more or less directionless since Ahmadinejad came to power a few months ago, is starting to go down the tubes.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:18 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

October 24, 2005

Iftaar at the State Department

Secretary of State Rice is hosting an iftaar dinner "to celebrate Ramadan and honor the significance of reflection, generosity, and compassion shared by all religions."

I hope Karen Hughes shows up. She did a marvelous job in Indonesia the other day:

"My state of Texas is very big," she told the students. "So you can imagine my surprise to learn that your country, Indonesia, is three times bigger than my big state of Texas."

Ah well, at least she's a mom.

Posted by eerie at 10:35 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

October 19, 2005

Iraq: Lowered Expectations

I’ll be honest with you, nobody around here wants to write about Iraq. Sure, the country has the trappings of democracy: political parties, elections and a draft constitution that may soon be ratified by popular referendum. It's certainly useful to ramble on about these "accomplishments" when uncomfortable questions about troop withdrawals come up, but do they really reflect democratic development? What do a bunch of purple fingers mean in the face of growing insurgency, ethnic/sectarian attempts to maximize factional interests, a constitution that favors federalism and obvious signs that religious conservatives are now a dominant political force?

There are a good number of governments that do not represent citizens or uphold individual rights in spite of their constitutions, referenda, elections and political parties (Miss Mabrouk has a nice summary of Egypt's election shenanigans). Just because Iraqis have gone to the polls a few times doesn’t mean they have a functioning democracy or even a self-sustaining government, for that matter. Iraq’s financial situation (or put another way, its utter dependence on the US taxpayer) is a useful example of non-viability. FT notes that the Iraqi government’s reliance on US assistance has resulted in a disincentive to curb its own expenditures:

Some US officials are also arguing that the US has to start disengaging from its role as Iraq's economic prop. This push has alarmed defence contractors, which are lobbying against such a move.

The $10bn (€8.3bn, £5.7bn) of US taxpayers' money spent so far on economic reconstruction has had limited effect, officials and analysts say, in part because of the insurgency and high insurance costs. The aid also serves to discourage the Iraqi government from making tough decisions, such as cutting back food and fuel subsidies that consume close to 40 per cent of their budget, which is projected to run a $6bn deficit.

Continue reading "Iraq: Lowered Expectations"

Posted by eerie at 11:06 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 17, 2005

Dar Fur (aka Darfur): Round and round and round again

I see there is another “Dar Fur” attention thing going on, wherein bloggers who a year ago or two had no bloody clue as to where the bloody hell the place is or who the Fur are (of course they still don’t – for all that the history of the Sultanate of Fur is actually rather intriguing) pontificate about the issue.

At the risk of being the perennial naysayer – well actually why not? Naysayers are useful, we drag the deluded back to reality. – let me again comment on Dar Fur (or if you must, Darfur).

Continue reading "Dar Fur (aka Darfur): Round and round and round again"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:58 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

October 13, 2005

Radio Sawa - Morocco: The Legal Status Scandal (small addition)

Some news earlier this week reminded me of a small tiff that arose in the past few months between the Moroccan "Higher Broadcasting Authority" (known by its French acronym, HACA) and Radio Sawa and the US government by extension. Something for Aardvarks in general I should suppose.

The issue revolves (or revolved if the reports are right) around the status of HACA as the independent media regulator (this is relatively recent but nevertheless the case for a while now), and the requirement that broadcasters obtain regular licenses from HACA by August 2005.

As the sharp reader might have divined, Sawa did not.

In effect, the United States took the position that Sawa needed no license as it is in fact a governmental agency covered by a bilateral accord authorising the Voice of America.

Continue reading "Radio Sawa - Morocco: The Legal Status Scandal (small addition)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:28 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Two Jews, Three Opinions, Part II: Day of Atonement Thoughts on Jewish Culture, Subculture, and Prejudice

[warning: much anecdotal musing ahead]

So here I am on this fine Yom Kippur, engaging in a bit of anthropological fieldwork among my extended family, a bunch of relatively liberal, politically aware Reform-ish American Jews in South Florida. In some ways we are very typical of our subculture(s), and in some ways we are not, but to be sure, there is a wide spectrum of opinion around here, and most of it is expressed passionately and frequently. My family is warm, loud, always interrupting each other, generous, and all-around decent people, and make frequent attempts to be openminded. Mom is even loving the biracial grandchild, in spite of her various complaints over the years that my sister (who basically hasn't dated a white guy since high school) is a reverse racist.

However, if I have to have one more discussion about how all Muslims are not out to exterminate the Jews, I might do something very un-Yom-Kippur-like, and really have something to atone for. I try to cut my aunt some slack - after all, she has worked for the past 20+ years at a grade school affiliated with a Conservative synagogue, and she gets the pro-Israel, anti-Muslim propaganda during most of her waking hours. But sheesh, she was just mentioning that she'd been thinking of donating to Pakistan earthquake relief, until her good friend and co-worker (a rabidly Zionist Israeli; one wonders, indeed, why she lives in the U.S.) mentioned maybe she shouldn't do that, because, you know, we wouldn't want to support people who want to wipe out the Jews.

Continue reading "Two Jews, Three Opinions, Part II: Day of Atonement Thoughts on Jewish Culture, Subculture, and Prejudice"

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October 09, 2005

On Arabic, Translation, Training and Spying

Being conflicted as to whether this is a purely personal rant or something of wider interest, but on rereading thinking I may have accidentally said something of wider interest, let me refer 'Aqoul readers to Lounsbury - 'Aqoul and a small post on issues related to traning in Arabic, translation, and spying.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 07, 2005

Arab Media - Arab Sats: Father of Aardvarks (edited)

I would be remiss not to draw attention (although I suspect most 'Aqoul readers are already aware) to Abu Aardvark's article Watching al-Jazeerah.

In that context let me add a few observations:

Continue reading "Arab Media - Arab Sats: Father of Aardvarks (edited)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:47 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

October 06, 2005

Arab Radio

Our friend The Father of Aardvarks has an interesting little piece drawing attention to a new report on Arab radio from the Arab Advisors Group; a very solid media advisory group founded a few years back (I should disclose that I know one of the founders, and have done business with him).

Our fine Father of Aardvarks, or Bou Aradvraak as I like to call him, largely concetrates on the public policy angle, which is important, but I find the business angle as interesting.

Continue reading "Arab Radio"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 18, 2005

Shadid on Iraq: A Contained Civil War?

Anthony Shadid's new book is out, and on TPM Cafe he gives a series of blog entries related to its content on Iraq. Here is one observation, of many, and I would solicit the Aqoul Brains Trust to give us a view of its accuracy and military-geographic-demographic rationale:

On the question of civil war, I don't see a lot of forces working against its intensification. To be honest, there are few national voices in Iraq these days. Ayad Allawi could be suggested as one, but I don't see him playing too great a role right now. Oddly, Muqtada Sadr is probably the figure who most plays up a nationalist discourse. That's in addition to his brand of sometimes messianic, populist religion. Beyond that, it is remarkable the degree to which politics are pronounced in communal terms. If a civil war worsened, I don't necessary see a conflagration. I think you could have an ostensible government in Baghdad, with ministries and embassies around it. In the hinterland, you could have militias staking out turf: Badr, Sadr and so on vying for influence in parts of Baghdad and the south, elements of the insurgency laying claims to land in the west and center, the Kurdish parties competing in the north, with varying degrees of intensity. Their points of intersection would be explosive, though not necessarily numerous.

I suspect he is mostly correct, though I do question whether parts of Baghdad are aptly described as "hinterland".

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:14 PM | Comments (21) | TrackBack

September 05, 2005

Willing. Unwilling. The Pretension of Interest in Democracy & The Middle East

From our dear friend Pratike, who made the error of going to Egypt and Cairo specifically to learn Arabic and thus condemn himself to speaking with a bufoonish accent for the rest of his day, a note on the 'elections' and the pretension that the US Administration is interested in democracy in the MENA region:

His quote from a Washington Post op ed:

Perhaps there is concern that too much pressure on Mubarak might produce a victory by the Muslim Brotherhood, the most popular Egyptian opposition party that has been outlawed by the government. That's a risk, of course, but if the Bush administration isn't willing to let Islamists, even radical Islamists, win votes in a fair election, then Bush officials should stop talking so much about democracy and go back to supporting the old dictatorships. It was precisely that kind of logic -- that friendly dictators are preferable to potentially radical alternatives -- that helped produce so much radicalism during the Cold War and, more recently, a healthy movement of Middle East terrorists.

Well, welcome to reality children. What news.

Continue reading "Willing. Unwilling. The Pretension of Interest in Democracy & The Middle East"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:30 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

September 03, 2005

New Orleans

Katrina's aftermath is dominating North American news. A somber cartoon from An Nahar newspaper (via Tom Scudder via Beirut Spring):

Posted by eerie at 04:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 31, 2005

The Bridge Stampede: Iraq, Chaos and Security

The deadly accident today in Iraq, where several hundreds (and indeed perhaps near a thousand) pilgrims were killed in a stampede over a bridge over the Tigris calls for some reflexion and comment. (See The Financial Times Up to 700 Iraqis feared dead in bridge stampede

Well nigh a thousand dead. Certainly it is rightly the prime lead on the Arab Sats (excuding CNBC which weirdly is trying to reproduce American dot com day-trader obsessiveness over the Saudi stock market) and the tragedy, the sheer pathos of the event - a stampede based on a false (or who knows, perhaps not....) rumour of a suicide bomber that ends up killing far more than any single suicide bomber (ex of course a truck or car bomber) might.

(As an aside, does that ridiculous Fox News call these Iraqi/Arab on Iraqi bombers 'homocide bombers' in its continued flaunting of absolute illiteracy?)

Continue reading "The Bridge Stampede: Iraq, Chaos and Security"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:54 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 29, 2005

Iraq: Lessons from History

Wilson was a confident and bullish colonial official who was wrestling with a serious dilemma. How, under intense international scrutiny, could he control a well-armed society that had become increasingly resentful about the occupation of their country? Wilson himself never found satisfactory answers to this question. On July 2, 1920, a revolt, or thawna, broke out along the lower Euphrates. Fueled by a population resentful at the heavy-handed approach of the occupying forces, the rebellion quickly spread across the south and center of the country. Faced with as many as 131,000 armed opponents, the British army did not regain full control until six months later in February 1921. The cost in lives and money of the revolt made the continued occupation of Iraq very unpopular with British public opinion. It also cost Wilson his job. From 1921 onward the British continually strove to cut the costs of their presence in Iraq. Ultimately the decision was made to extricate themselves from he country as quickly as possible. The result was a failure to build a liberal or even a stable state in Iraq. (Toby Dodge - Inventing Iraq)

This passage gets creepier every time I read it. I’ve mentioned Toby Dodge’s book before, partly for historical value and partly as a cautionary tale for people who can’t grasp the complexities associated with “remaking” a region. The reason I am flogging this dead horse yet again is a recent Washington Post article about the US struggle to foster a liberal democracy in the face of strong ethnic and sectarian pressures:

Continue reading "Iraq: Lessons from History"

Posted by eerie at 03:57 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 26, 2005

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)

Added Thoughts on Private Equity for Devleopment MENA

I neglected to touch on a few key points in my original note, below are further thoughts on private equity and economic development for the MENA region.

Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Economist - a fine arty on Jihadis as Anarchists

A bit late I admit, but I get my Economist a week late, and very much prefer the print edition to online reading. Being primative.

The article in question:
For jihadist, read anarchist

I very much enjoyed this as this is something that I have been making as a point in several conversations online, in regards to the neglected similarities to the radical anararchist movement of the end of the 19th century in Europe and the Americas.

Continue reading "Economist - a fine arty on Jihadis as Anarchists"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:48 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 25, 2005

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development

A few weeks ago I raised the subject of emerging markets private equity in particular in the context of US Gov efforts to utilize the vehicle to further its political / development goals in the Middle East – North Africa region. One of our online world colleagues if you will posed a question to me as to what the “The Lounsbury” approach would be, in the context of my expressed skepticism in regards to the investment vehicle / definition chosen by The Overseas Private Equity Corporation.

Ironically (well not really) at present I am working on materials closely related to just this question, although not really in regards to development – but as much of the private equity activity in region has been international development institution driven there is a clearly overlap. Now, having sent drafts of my materials off for comment I can take a moment to sketch out some preliminary thoughts on the issue that will be the basis for future comment.

First, my assumptions, based on personal experience in the region and in the “sector” if we can call it that. Again, these are my a priori assumptions and principes.

Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:34 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 22, 2005

Critiquing the Arab World (update link)

A small note of reflection on critiques of the Arab world, Daniel Drenzer’s blog, the weaknesses of the commentary and other points raised.

[An interjection, on reading this AM’s comments and in particular Britt’s mendacious reply, I have to say I was too generous, the fellow is in fact a political hack interested in talking points, not getting up to speed, pity that, but more below.]

Continue reading "Critiquing the Arab World (update link)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:52 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

August 20, 2005

What Next in Iraq

Ted Barlow at Crooked Timber discusses what can be done about the situation in Iraq:

Orin Kerr recently proposed a useful simplified framework of possible outcomes in Iraq:

1. The U.S. beats back the insurgency and democracy flowers in Iraq (call this the “optimistic stay” scenario),
2. The U.S. digs in its heels, spends years fighting the insurgency, loses lots of troops, and years later withdraws, leading to a bloody and disastrous civil war (the “pessimistic stay” scenario);
3. The U.S. decides that it’s no longer worth it to stay in Iraq, pulls out relatively soon, and things in Iraq are about as best as you could hope for, perhaps leading to a decent amount of democracy (optimistic leave), and
4. The U.S. decides that it’s no longer worth it to stay in Iraq, pulls out soon, and plunges Iraq into a bloody and disastrous civil war with the bad guys assuming control eventually (pessimistic leave).

Speaking only for myself, I’m entirely confident that we could achieve outcome 4, believe that staying the course will continue to lead to outcome 2, and can scarcely imagine outcome 3. What about outcome 1? Is it achievable?

...

There’s a well-known prayer that asks for the courage to change the things that can be changed, the serenity to accept the things that cannot, and the wisdom to know the difference. I find myself short on all three.

I believe that Greg is right about the consequences of letting Iraq collapse into civil war. It’s terrible to contemplate. A civil war or a failed state could lead to tens of thousands of deaths, maybe more. It would be a moral travesty and a terrorist breeding ground. It would make a mockery of the goal, however idealistic, of transforming a bloody dictatorship into a stable, democratic, normal country. “Serenity” hardly seems like the appropriate response. When I look at the situation through the eyes of an idealistic war supporter, some of the vitriol is easier to understand; they’re appalled at war opponents who would abandon the people of Iraq to this fate.

So it seems unthinkable to declare victory and come home. Having said that, “what we must do” has to be constrained by “what we can do.” Imagine a village living in the shadow of a live volcano. Serenity is not an appropriate response to the threat of an eruption, but neither is a program of virgin sacrifice.

There's more, and links to much more, and a good discussion in the comments section.

Posted by tomscud at 07:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 19, 2005

Annoying grey ships at Aqaba piss me off: Shall Fire rockets at them. (US ships attacked) - updated

Well, this news in the AM bemused me:

Missile Fired at U.S. Navy Ship in Jordan

It reports two missiles (in fact, it appears mortars, not quite the same thing, Mr. Halaby, or perhaps Katyusha rockets..... well something explosive in any case) were fired at US warships at Aqaba harbor.

[update: 17h00 GMT below]

Suppose this will do wonders for tourism. Might clear out the harbor though, reduce the backlog.

Continue reading "Annoying grey ships at Aqaba piss me off: Shall Fire rockets at them. (US ships attacked) - updated"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 16, 2005

Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes

A somewhat quick note building off of a comment by the esteemed Nadezhda in regards to my rapid note on a new US Gov private equity fund _{(also with more rough perso comments at Lounsbury )} backed by the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a US parastatal investment insurance and financing house whose main line of business is political risk insurance on US direct investments in risky locales.

I have been intending - and still intend to - write some commentary on this specific issue of private equity (or in general equity finance) in the MENA region, but I thought some quick notes on this OPIC backed private equity fund for the MENA region are in order, and in response to some notes by Nadezhda - whose name I have learned to spell now.

Continue reading "Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 14, 2005

But do they really mean it...? Or get it? This time?

From the Washington Post:

"What we expected to achieve was never realistic given the timetable or what unfolded on the ground," said a senior official involved in policy since the 2003 invasion. "We are in a process of absorbing the factors of the situation we're in and shedding the unreality that dominated at the beginning.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:20 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 11, 2005

Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced

At the risk of descending into flackery or something approaching it, I thought a brief comment here might be fun.

OPIC BOARD APPROVES $75 MILLION FOR MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA FUND

Certainly this plays into my personal interests.

[Updated with correction below]
[Update with a question: Is there a debate to be had here regarding using such tools for acheiving a policy goal?]

Continue reading "Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 09, 2005

Iraq - Reconstruction - Knowing when to get out of the way

This article from The Washington Post (Op Ed actually) struck me as if not important a useful point of reflection for a moment:
Less Is More in Iraq
By Michael Rubin
Tuesday, August 9, 2005; Page A17

Let us leave aside Rubin's sketchy history in regards to Iraq as part of what one might properly and non-abusively call a "Neo Conservative" circle in Washington re Iraq (and his direct and personal contribution to the fiasco via his work with CPA-Iraq). Let us leave aside as well the question of whether a US draw down of troops is a good or bad thing (I might argue either way on any given day). Rather, merely look at the question of the US contractor presence.

Continue reading "Iraq - Reconstruction - Knowing when to get out of the way"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:50 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 04, 2005

On Terror, Tea Cups and Jumping - Re Conclusions

If I may permit myself a snide aside based on this article:
London Bombers Used Ordinary Materials, and in partial connexion with my own note, Tempests & Tea Pots regarding a rather overdone, hysteric to an extent and generally ridiculous and poorly informed online debate on terrorism.

Continue reading "On Terror, Tea Cups and Jumping - Re Conclusions"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 03, 2005

More Motion and Commotion in Central Asia: Of Refugees and Power Politics

In a not-so-startling turn of events in Central Asia, the Uzbek government has just given the U.S. military six months to vacate the Karshi-Khanabad air base, which has been used to support military operations in Afghanistan. This development might have been more surprising if it hadn’t come the day after 400 refugees from a May demonstration in Andijon, Uzbekistan, (which turned bloody when government troops fired on unarmed protestors) were relocated from neighboring Kyrgyzstan to Romania , after the U.N. High Commission on Refugees and the U.S. applied pressure to Kyrgyz officials not to return the refugees to Uzbekistan, where they would likely face persecution and torture.

Continue reading "More Motion and Commotion in Central Asia: Of Refugees and Power Politics"

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July 26, 2005

The Lounsbury Return: Iraq & Civil War

I'm back from a bloody long trip and quite beat. Regardless, a quick note to draw attention (via Juan Cole) to a New York Times article, cited at the billmon blog, discussing the new emergence of open discussion of the emerging civil war in Iraq. As longtime Lounsbury readers know, I called the "entry into the Lebanese logic" a year or so ago.

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July 23, 2005

Another 9-11: Christmas for the Mojahedin-e Khalq?

According to former CIA agent turned journo, Philip Giraldi, Cheney has told STRATCOM to draw up a plan for responding to another major terrorist attack on the US with an assault on Iran. It'd be a full scale affair including "a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons." And, "As in the case of Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States."
The piece is featured in Aug 1 print edition of American Conservative Magazine

Hopefully, this is what Senator Kyl would call "over the top bluster" on Mr. Giraldi's part. If not, if there's some substance to this characterization of the plans, another tragic attack on the US could be the opening the Sazeman-e Mojahedin-e Khalq-e Iran have been waiting for. They may be able to leverage tragedy and their not insignificant support among various US political actors into an expense paid trip to the remains of Tehran.

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July 20, 2005

On Iraq: The Question of the Army-in-training

Juan Cole printed a letter today from "Brian", who claims to be a former Australian army officer involved in the training of soldiers. Brian is not impressed with the training regimen in Iraq:

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July 19, 2005

Oh NOES, it's teh SEE EYE AY!

Being back in Jordan after a two-year absence has proven to be quite interesting. The amount of newly opened American chain stores are quite large, as are the amount of 'alternative' locally-owned bars and pubs. I've frequented the latter group quite a bit this past week, and have noticed an eerie amount of American folks hanging out among the upper-class Jordanian youth.

For instance, I noticed a tall man with a shaved head and well-built body sitting down alone at a table. This man could have been taken straight out of the military had he not been reading a book, cross-legged, while quietly drinking a glass of wine. I walked up to him and asked him what he was reading, and invited him over to our table. He ignored the question but introduced himself and walked over with me anyway. When he sat down I repeated the question, and he said: "I'm a writer." Intrigued, I asked him what sort of stuff he wrote. He responded with a vague answer, something along the lines of: "I write different things, for papers and stuff, and other things too."

Another incident occurred at the Jordanian Film Convention I attended a few nights ago. This man, J., claimed to work with an NGO "dealing with Iraq". He didn't know what NGO he was working for, however, or at least, that was his reponse when I asked him. After talking to a friend I found out that this guy actually interviewed Iraqi prisoners, but again, not much was known about the actual organization he worked for.

Now this is not going to be an analysis so much as a personal observation, or perhaps a 'word from the street' sort of thing. Tonight, another friend mentioned the abundence of Americans "studying Arabic" here in Jordan. Funnily enough, however, it seems that even after spending months "studying", none of these people could speak more than a few words or sentences. Furthermore, young Arabs who live here find themselves casually questioned by these foreigners about what they think of the war, the government, or Islam.

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July 15, 2005

In Defense of Ignorance: Pundita

The wise words of Pundita, noted moron and probable foreign policy wonk in Washington:

My position is don't try to understand by listening to the Europeans. The French went on and on about their experience in Algeria to explain why they were against the US invasion of Iraq. Hello, we're not the French...

And don't allow academics and well-meaning Europeans to terrorize us into thinking we require a scholarly grasp of the situation in the Middle East before we can formulate a correct approach.

Here is the full entry, for readers interested in seeing her "argument" in its entirety. Comments are not permitted on her blog, and if someone posts a refutation of her writing in their own journal, she quaintly refers to these entries as "letters", thereby escaping the obligation to link back to them during her own rebuttal.

The biggest irony I find in her writing is how much it resembles policy pieces written by British colonial officials, even as she complains about Europe's colonial baggage in the Middle East. Strong "Orientalist" slant, complete ignorance of subtleties in terms of religion, ethnicity, cultural/regional variations and recent history. Looking over Juan Cole's recent note on Iraqi casualties (an estimated 8,000 in the past 10 months, or 800 per month, likely excluding those killed by US military action), a ham-handed "screw research and/or informed decisionmaking, we're Americans!" strategy does not necessarily yield productive results in the short or long-term.

PS - Now that we're on the topic, watching The Battle of Algiers is useful for understanding both the French experience in Algeria and potential parallels with the US experience in Iraq. Lounsbury goes on about this film endlessly, even the Pentagon has screened it.

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