Foreign Policy & MENA Archives

March 07, 2012

On Israel & its American tropes, re Iran

The Economist Blog on America has a wise comment, in Israel, Iran and America: Auschwitz complex | The Economist that is rather more intelligent the normal idiocy that is written about Israel

But Israel has even less control over its own destiny than Portugal or Britain do. The main reason is that, unlike those countries, Israel refuses to give up its empire. Israel is unable to sustain its imperial ambitions in the West Bank, or even to articulate them coherently. Having allowed its founding ideology to carry it relentlessly and unthinkingly into what Gershom Gorenburg calls an "Accidental Empire" of radical religious-nationalist settlements that openly defy its own courts, Israel is politically incapable of extricating itself. The partisan battles engendered by its occupation of Palestinian territory render it less and less able to pull itself free. It is immobilised, pinned down, in a conflict that is gradually killing it. Countries facing imperial twilight, like Britain in the late 1940s, are often seized by a sense of desperate paralysis. For over a decade, the tone of Israeli politics has been a mix of panic, despair, hysteria and resignation.

No one bears greater responsibility for the trap Israel finds itself in today than Mr Netanyahu. As prime minister in the late 1990s, he did more than any other Israeli leader to destroy the peace process. Illegal land grabs by settlers were tolerated and quietly encouraged in the confused expectation that they would aid territorial negotiations. Violent clashes and provocations erupted whenever the peace process seemed on the verge of concrete steps forward; the most charitable spin would be that the Israelis failed to exercise the restraint they might have shown in retaliating against Palestinian terrorism, had they been truly interested in progress towards a two-state solution. Mr Netanyahu believed that the Oslo peace agreements were a mirage, and his government's actions in the late 1990s helped make it true.

Having trapped themselves in a death struggle with Palestinians that they cannot acknowledge or untangle, Israelis have psychologically displaced the source of their anxiety onto a more distant target: Iran. An Iranian nuclear bomb would not be a happy development for Israel. Neither was Pakistan's, nor indeed North Korea's. The notion that it represents a new Holocaust is overstated, and the belief that the source of Israel's existential woes can be eliminated with an airstrike is mistaken. But Iran makes an appealing enemy for Israelis because, unlike the Palestinians, it can be fitted into a familiar ideological trope from the Jewish national playbook: the eliminationist anti-Semite.

I believe this hits the current situation head on - and also highlights the madness that this dead-end might pull in the last super-power into a mad bit of co-enablement and suidice pact (not nuclear holocaust, but security over-reaching touching off a Gulf region war that is not needed or useful, spiking oil prices into a deadly range) 

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The Sad Religious Spin on the Iranian fiasco

Watching the drumbeat relative to Iran, one can not but be reminded of the Iraq experience. I hope to God that the USA does not elect someone who will follow the drumbeat of war. It will be a disaster. This article is a wise one relative to the particular religous spin (and I think a sad statement on the state of American political discourse and thinking that this sort of thing may well work:  Bibi Netanyahu's Bible Story - Robert Wright - International - The Atlantic

Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave President Obama a copy of the book of Esther, which will be read in synagogues this week in observance of Purim. Esther tells the story of a Persian government that tries and fails to wipe out all the Jews in the Persian Empire. According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Netanyahu saw this as an occasion to generalize about Persians (or, as we call them today, Iranians). He told Obama, "Then, too, they wanted to wipe us out."

Here's a thought experiment: Suppose that an Arab or Iranian leader of Muslim faith met with President Obama and told him about some part of the Koran that alludes to conflict between Muhammad and Jewish tribes. For example, according to Muslim tradition, the Jewish tribe known as the Qurayzah, though living in Muhammad's town of Medina, secretly sided with Muhammad's enemies in Mecca. Suppose this Muslim said to Obama, "Then, too, the Jews were bent on destroying Muslims." What would our reaction be?

I think reactions would vary. Some people would say, "See, the Koran teaches Muslims to hate Jews!" Some would say, "Wow, this Muslim is looking really, really hard for reasons to keep hating Jews, isn't he?"

That second point, at least, would have some merit. After all, the Muslim could just as easily have pointed to parts of the Koran that say nice things about Jews--such as the part that says that God, in his "prescience," chose "the children of Israel ... above all peoples." Or the part that says that God "sent down the Torah" as "guidance to the people" and now had sent down the Koran "confirming what was before it."

By the same token, Netanyahu could choose to emphasize a part of the Hebrew Bible that depicts Persians in a more flattering light. For example, the part that calls Cyrus the Great, the Persian king, the "messiah" because he delivered the exiled Israelites back to their home. (Yes, the only non-Hebrew called messiah in the entire Hebrew Bible is a Persian!)

Dangerous rhetoric and dangerous game playing by a fringe in Israel that somehow believes that Iran is Iraq. 

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February 26, 2012

Egypt NGO Trail encores (delay to April)

The murky and ongoing political trials against NGOs backed by foreign money took another strange twist in the delay to 26 April. God alone knows what is going on now in Egypt, which is sliding chaotically sideways.

However, in this NYT/IHT arty, I rather more Trial of Nonprofit Workers in Egypt Is Abruptly Put Off -  was struck by this:

But another contingent of lawyers had turned up to argue on behalf of Egyptians who they said had been harmed by the activities of the nonprofit groups, which officials of the military-led government have charged with stirring unrest in the Egyptians. They shouted back accusations the defendants and their supporters were agents of the United States.

As though to complete the sense of a climactic unleashing of pent-up bad feeling between the two longtime allies, another group of protesters outside the courthouse chanted for the United States to release from prison Sheikh Omar Abdel-Rahman, an Egyptian jailed for the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center. Some here have argued he should be released in a prisoner swap for the Americans on trial in the case.

American diplomats, Egyptian lawyers and others involved said the efforts to resolve the case had foundered amid a breakdown in the lines of authority within the military-led transitional government in the final months before the generals have pledged to leave power. American officials say they have tried to find Egyptian counterparts who might intercede, but Egyptian leaders say they cannot intervene in the judicial process.

If the case is not resolved, Congress and the Obama administration have vowed to cut off the $1.55 billion in annual aid to Egypt, potentially rupturing the three-way alliance among Washington, Cairo and Jerusalem that has been a linchpin of regional stability.

...
There is no dispute that the two groups and their staffs have broken the letter of Egyptian law. Both groups sought, but never received, licenses from the Egyptian government, and both are openly financed from abroad. They therefore violate two restrictions on civil groups left over from government of Hosni Mubarak, the strongman president who was deposed a year ago. But both groups have been tolerated here for years, along with scores of Egyptian nonprofit groups that also break both rules.

..

But the case has continued to move forward, and the American threats to cut off aid have set off a new wave of Egyptian nationalism.

Emphasis added. That is a line of agitation - clearly by Salafistes - that is quite dangerous.

The arty elsewhere notes the idea being mooted by American officials of some deal to let the Americans go, the Egyptian nationals with short sentences. I would advance the opinion that such would be quite damaging for American image overall.

However, few choices exist.

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February 08, 2012

Egypt-US relations further downhill: military delegation cancels Washington visit.

As this has interesting regional implications, some thoughts on the FT arty Egypt-US meetings cancelled amid trial row and on the recent Gallup polling on Egypt and US assistance

From FT
 

An Egyptian army delegation visiting Washington abruptly cancelled meetings with senior American lawmakers on Monday as US government officials warned the country’s $1.5bn aid package was in jeopardy.

Senators Carl Levin and John McCain, the Democratic chairman and ranking Republican on the US Senate armed services committee, were among a number of congressional leaders scheduled to meet the Egyptian military representatives in the coming week.
 
But the delegation was recalled home after 19 US citizens, including Sam LaHood, the son of the US transportation secretary, were referred by the Egyptian authorities for criminal trial on charges of operating civil society groups without permission and receiving unauthorised foreign funding.

I'm actually fairly surprised that Egypt has decided to play hard ball on this.  They seem to truly feel that USA won't dare suspend aide, however, I don't know the US administration will be able to hold back the political backlash:
 

Cairo’s decision to try US citizens has put in doubt $1.5bn of US aid after a warning from Hillary Clinton, secretary of state, at the weekend. “We will have to closely review these matters as it comes [to the] time for us to certify whether or not any of these funds from our government can be made available under these circumstances,” she said.

The Obama administration repeated its warning on Monday. “We have underscored how serious a problem these actions are. We have said clearly that these actions could have consequences for our relationship, including regarding our assistance programs,” said Jay Carney, White House spokesman.

It's worth noting the amounts, Econ aide at USD 250 mln is enormous. Serious American allies don't receive such levels. A questionable one....

Under the budget approved by Congress for this year, Egypt is to receive $1.3bn in military aid and $250m in economic aid. However, allocation of the military aid requires the secretary of state to certify that Egypt is supporting the transition to a civilian government, including holding fair elections and ensuring freedom of speech.

And for the political climate in USA, this looks quite problematic to support:

Opposition to aid for Egypt continues to grow. On Friday, Patrick Leahy, the Democratic senator who chairs the subcommittee on foreign aid, said: “We want to send a clear message to the Egyptian military that the days of blank cheques are over.”

More than 40 members of Congress signed a letter sent to both the Obama administration and the Egyptian military council warning that it would be difficult to maintain aid in “the absence of a quick and satisfactory resolution to this issue”.

On this last observation below, (which I suppose suggests that just before aide is cut the trials will be suspended (but not dismissed) or some similar bit of theatre, the Gallup polling rather suggest that they are playing to a willing audience. Of course, it does raise substantial questions about the US-Egyptian relationship, given a political system that has positively nurtured paranoia re outsiders, including supposed allies.
 

Rabab al-Mahdi, an Egyptian political analyst, said the ruling generals appeared to be involved in a game of brinkmanship with the US but that it was unlikely they would allow the aid to be cut. She said that for the moment they seemed to be playing to nationalist sentiments in a country deeply suspicious of US intentions in the region. ...“I think what we are seeing is part of a populist campaign on the part of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in which they take extreme positions against the US and foreign powers. It feeds into the propaganda [they have been spreading] about foreign plots to destroy Egypt.”

The IHT / NYT arty on this subject  In Egypt, a History of Distrust of U.S.-Aided Groups - NYTimes.com

A useful reminder that the process was launched under the deposed President, again highlighting the very problematic fundamentals of that regime, happy to accept a nearly USD 2 bln bribe, but at the same time played a double game.

Two groups were targets of an Egyptian investigation into their role in supporting opposition to President Hosni Mubarak before he fell from power last February. “Data was collected about the activities of the American Embassy through the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute,” Mr. Mubarak’s former intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, said in a deposition.

...

That being said, I do agree with these observations:

But Paul J. Sullivan, a Middle East expert at Georgetown University who has long studied the Egyptian military, cautioned against interpreting the criminal charges as a result merely of high-level machinations. He said Egyptians of all affiliations are wary of undue influence from the United States, which they view as having propped up the Mubarak regime for many years.

“I understand the purpose of the N.D.I. and I.R.I.,” Dr. Sullivan said of the Democratic and Republican institutes. “But this is a newly freed state and a very brittle and emotional environment. It’s not the best environment for them to work. How would we react if a foreign country came here to teach us how to conduct elections?”

Many Egyptians appear to share the military-led government’s suspicions of American motives. “Eighty percent of the people think this is America’s work,” said Sherif Mohamed, 33, surveying metal fragments, garbage fires and dusty tear gas residue left on his block from five days of battles between protesters and security forces in Cairo.

“America does not like Islam,” he said, echoing a common sentiment here.

In recent days, several members of the newly elected Egyptian Parliament have said they look forward to the results of the investigation, asserting that it was wrong for the United States to violate Egyptian laws barring foreign financing of nonprofits.

Emphasis added. Given USA mainstreet popular paranioa about all things foreign (and the lunatic conspiracy theories that seem to have wide credit in the populist right like NAFTA highway, etc), one can hardly disagree.

However, turning to the Gallup note re Most Egyptians Oppose U.S. Economic Aid beyond the headline that ~70% of Egyptians oppose US assistance to Egypt, economic or political, the non-headline result that there is openness to international assistance via WB or IMF rather suggests a specific problematic relationship that the US would be better served from stepping back from:

LOS ANGELES -- About 7 in 10 Egyptians surveyed by Gallup in December 2011 oppose U.S. economic aid to Egypt, and a similar percentage opposes the U.S. sending direct aid to civil society groups. This rebuke of U.S. financial support may be a challenge for Egypt's newly elected parliament and its future president as the government attempts to bolster the nation's financial stability.
....

Egyptians are much more willing to receive aid from international institutions, with 50% favoring this type of help. Egypt's military and political leaders initally rejected an offer of support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but later changed their minds. Last month, Masood Ahmed, Director for the Middle East and Central Asia Department for the IMF, was in Egypt to discuss a potential $3.2 billion IMF loan to Egypt. Egyptian leaders' ability to attract foreign aid and investment will be important to collecting the capital needed to move the nation's economy forward.
...

Egytians are nearly as likely to favor aid from Arab governments as they are to oppose help from the U.S. Almost 7 in 10 favor aid from Arab governments.This may in part reflect high-profile announcements by several of the country's Arab neighbors about their involvement in projects to help rebuild Egypt's economy.

...

However, some Egyptian politicians have begun to voice concerns about collecting on their neighbors' promises. Fayza Abouelnaga, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation in Egypt, recently noted that her country had received only $500 million of the $3.7 billion promised by Saudi Arabia and $500 million of the $1.5 billion pledged by Qatar. Further, she said the United Arab Emirates has paid none of its promised $3 billion. Abouelnaga estimated in December that Egypt's foreign debt reached $34.4 billion, representing 15% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

Well, Gulf state promises should always be subject to an enormous discount rate. Like 50% plus. Even on their private investment front, they have an El Dorado image, but actual investments in real terms lags badly.
 

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February 06, 2012

End American (and other) Aid to Egypt

Noted this via the Arabist, frankly Steve Cook is spot on: From the Potomac to the Euphrates » Egypt and the United States: It’s Not You, It’s Me

I say we oblige Aboul Naga and wind down the aid program—including military assistance—as soon as practical. It’s hard to run against the “foreign hand” if there is no foreign hand. In addition to undermining Aboul Naga’s claims (and hopefully weakening her) bringing an end to the aid program and shutting down the USAID mission has multiple political benfits. First, Washington will no longer be in the unseemly position of providing taxpayer largesse—however small in the grand scheme of things—to a government that resents the United States and clearly does not share its values. Second, it will provide an opportunity for a much-needed change in military-to-military relations in which the United States merely pays for the services it needs like expedited transit through the Suez Canal. Third, it is consistent with this moment of empowerment and dignity for Egyptians many of whom do not want U.S. assistance either because they believe it actually stands in the way of a democratic transition or accept Aboul Naga’s argument along with those who couldn’t care less about U.S. assistance because it doesn’t touch their lives. Finally, it will free up funds for the United States to help others who actually might want Washington’s help, perhaps the Tunisians, Moroccans, or some sub-Saharan African countries would be grateful for development assistance.

This goes for others aide as well (UK, Germany).

Assistance spent on Tunisia, Morocco, the Sahel, would make rather more sense. Egypt, well, would do well to go through a "cure."
 

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February 02, 2012

Egyptian Fantasies, American NeoCon dreams

I spotted this intriguingly deluded and/or dishonest read of the Egyptian revolution and American policy via, if I recall, Andrew Sullivan. Although I haven't any particular faith in the Egyptian revolution, this eval is simply daft.

Eric Trager: Happy Birthday To Egypt’s Doomed Revolution | The New Republic

Exactly one year ago today, I stood in front of the Lawyers Syndicate in downtown Cairo and watched as a few thousand protesters suddenly streamed into the area from the north, overwhelmed Egypt’s notoriously violent riot police, and pushed onward towards Tahrir Square. That mile-long march, which culminated with the protesters bursting through a human chain of officers and seizing the Square, was the most inspiring thing that I’ve ever witnessed, and it remains so. Long presumed to be politically passive, ordinary Egyptians bravely amassed with one simple demand: That decades of dictatorship had to end. When Hosni Mubarak resigned eighteen tumultuous days later, the Arab Spring had bloomed.

Ahem, that would have been when Ben Ali left... but leaving aside Egypto-centricism,

Or so we wanted to believe. The reality of the past twelve months, however, has undone whatever high hopes one might have held. Egypt is now headed for radical theocratic, rather than liberal democratic, rule. And a befuddled Obama administration has failed to do anything to stop the coming disaster.

This is simply daft.

First, one had to be deluded if last January one thought Egypt was heading towards liberal democratic rule. And to advance the argument, either stupid, deluded or simply dishonest.

Of course currently it is far from the case they're headed towards "radical theocratic" rule - it rather looks more like the same old Neo-Mamlouk rule with a bit of a Brotherhood façade. And the Brotherhood isn't radical theocrats, nor even radical religious. Nour party is, but they're far from allies at this stage.

As for the swipe at the Obama administration... That is in

IT IS TEMPTING to believe that things might have turned out differently had Washington worked harder to bolster the young revolutionaries who seemingly exemplified America’s own liberal values when they took to the streets last January.

Sure, if one is inclined to wishful thinking and hasn't the slightest fucking clue as to Egyptian society and political structures after decades of Mubarek dictatorship.

These brave activists, after all, had won America’s hearts to the tune of an 82-percent approval rating at the height of the revolt, and their photogenic faces carried the promise of a more democratic, friendly Egypt.

Uhhh. right.

But the activists were never who we hoped they were. Far from being liberal, their ranks were largely comprised of Nasserists, revolutionary socialists, and Muslim Brotherhood youths—an alliance of convenience for opposing Mubarak and, later, for denouncing the U.S.

Well, surprising that, denouncing the USA, after USA poured billions and billions into supporting the very regime they were toppling.

As for the idea of liberalism in the revolution... What a peculiar fantasy.

Thus, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Egypt in March 2011, a group of leading activists refused to meet with her. They also turned out to be intolerant conspiracy theorists: When classically Cairoesque rumors that a “Jewish Masonic” ceremony was to be held at the pyramids on November 11, the April 6th Youth Movement’s Democratic Front declared that this non-existent event should be prohibited. “We are committed to the achievements of the revolution, which emphasized freedom,” they said in a statement. “But freedom is not absolute freedom, and … it is constrained by the regulations and beliefs of the Egyptian people, who do not accept that these celebrations be protected in the wake of the revolution.”

Oh how very surprising.... Egyptian political culture was not magically transformed by people bopping around Tahrir Square. Stunning insight.

Not that the revolutionaries were the horse to bet on anyway.

As opposed to who to bet on?

Their continued reliance on street protests following Mubarak’s ouster angered the wider Egyptian public, which desperately wanted a return to normalcy. In late October—only one day before the registration deadline—they finally formed an electoral coalition, the Revolution Continues Alliance (RCA), to compete in parliamentary elections, but it was too late. The RCA won merely 2.35 percent of the parliamentary seats, and will play a minimal role in shaping Egypt’s political future. Meanwhile, Islamist parties captured nearly 70 percent of the vote by tapping into the Egyptian public’s religious sentiments and using their well-established social services networks to turn out supporters.

Again, very stunning that after decades of Mubarek regime actively working to stunt any and all political activity outside of the Neo Mamlouk system, the youth didn't get it right. Who could have possibly predicted such a thing. Oh just about anyone, that's right.

Well, that's how revolutions work.

The Obama administration, however, had already pegged its hopes on the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which took power after Mubarak’s resignation with Washington’s approval—and reasonably so. After all, the military’s historic relations with Washington and its widespread support among the Egyptian public seemed to make it the ideal partner for shepherding Egypt toward a stable, democratic future.

Ideal partner?

What other choices were there?

Our dear writer has already highlighted the youth groups of non-Islamist cast were disorganised and inexperienced - and not terribly well-disposed to USA (although he glosses over the reasons). And it's clear his feelings on the Islamists....

So apparently the American administration was to invent some magical partners in Egypt.

But there were early signs that the SCAF was far more concerned about stability than it was interested in democracy. Last spring, as sectarian violence rose considerably, the military hesitated to interfere in domestic strife for fear of inciting a backlash.

Big surprise, SCAF not interested in democracy. I doubt anyone in the American administration, in private, was particularly surprised by this.

...

Then, when a sluggish transition towards civilian rule catalyzed new Tahrir Square protests in the autumn, the military unleashed an unprecedented crackdown, entirely abdicating whatever democratic credentials it could once lay claim to. Between October and December, the military killed at least 80 demonstrators and wounded hundreds, deploying armored military vehicles, snipers, and weapons-grade teargas again its own people, and manipulating the state-run media to incite civilians to take up arms against protesters. Meanwhile, the SCAF subjected at least 12,000 Egyptians to military trials and, in late December, stormed the offices of seventeen pro-democratic NGOs, many of which are U.S.-funded.

True.

As the SCAF’s repressive rule has undermined its legitimacy both within Egypt and abroad, the Obama administration has looked increasingly to the Muslim Brotherhood as a potential partner. Thus, administration’s policy of “limited contacts” with the Muslim Brotherhood, which it announced in June, expanded to diplomatic meetings with the organization in October, and Deputy Secretary of State William Burns met with the Brotherhood’s political leaders in January. The Brotherhood, the thinking goes, won a 47 percent plurality in the recent parliamentary elections, and Washington’s interests are hardly served by having hostile relations with Egypt’s legitimately elected leaders. This argument, however, is only half right: While Washington should maintain open lines of communication with the Brotherhood, it should have no illusions about the Brotherhood’s willingness to act as a partner on key American interests.

Emphasis added.

And why is it expected, after decades of American backed dictatorship, any Egyptian party coming out of the Revolution is particularly "partnering" on key American interests (whatever they are in this author's active imagination). What there is to criticize in the American approach right now escapes as the Brotherhood is clealry a popular power. Our dear author doesn't like them, but elections have consequences.

In this vein, the Brotherhood’s leaders have said repeatedly that the organization intends to put the Camp David Accords to a referendum—a strategy that it apparently believes will enable it to sink Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel while escaping the blame.

Ah Israeli interests.

Of course this rendition of the Brotherhood's position is rather tendentious, as the majority of declarations by the Brotherhood have in fact indicated they're not inclined to

Brotherhood leaders have additionally called for banning bikinis, beach bathing, and alcohol despite the fact that these are essential elements to Egypt’s tourism industry, which comprises roughly ten percent of Egypt’s stagnating economy.

Again, tendentious.

Some have, only to be rebuked.

The organization also supports new legislation that would limit foreign funding of NGOs, thereby undercutting Washington’s ability to aid pro-democratic organizations.

Oh what a surprise, after decades of Americans supporting a dictatorship and engaging in faux democracy promo, why post revolution they're less than keen on Americans funding NGOs... Odd given American sensitivities about anything foreign funded in USA.

(I'll leave aside again the factualness of the claim - here I haven't noted the Brotherhood promoting this in specific, but perhaps I did miss that).

Finally, and perhaps most consequentially, the Brotherhood intends to establish the sharia as the principal source of Egyptian legislation and criminalize criticism of Islamic law, thereby rendering Christians and secularists unequal citizens.

Again, exaggerated and tendentious.
...

Perhaps the administration is betting that recently reported negotiations between the SCAF and Muslim Brotherhood will yield an agreement that satisfies both parties and, at the very least, promotes domestic tranquility. If so, it would be a telling indicator of where things stand: a year after the ebullience of Tahrir, an alliance between military autocrats and radical theocrats is viewed, sadly, as a best-case scenario.

Islamists are not per se theocrats, although he does love the scare language

But I would say that on the very days of Tahrir, the best case scenario was always this.

Eric Trager is the Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

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May 26, 2011

Tunsia, sideways: July, October - depends. (Electoral com vs gov)

The Tunisian elections situation is unfortunately not clarifying. Yesterday it was on, today it is to be delayed. The Independent Electoral Commission (who seem to be serious people) declaring that elections must imperatively be delayed to October. Their arguments are rational (the issue of large numbers of voters without proper identity cards, not on electoral lists - didn't really matter before one should think - are real and solid ones). What is worrisome is the lack of clear authority - the electoral commission taking the position it is their call (and why not). The Government withholding comment.

Frankly, October makes more sense, it's painfully clear that the elections apparatus is not going to be really ready in time (we're almost in June) and a fiasco of a first election I think is more damaging than a 3 month delay - so long as the delay is a one-off event.

The Canadian Press: Tunisie: la commission électorale décide le report des élections

Tunisie: la commission électorale décide le report des élections

De The Associated Press 

TUNISIA, Tunisia — La Commission électorale indépendante persiste et signe: l'élection de l'Assemblée constituante, initialement prévue en Tunisie le 24 juillet, doit être reportée au 16 octobre.

Lors d'une conférence de presse jeudi après-midi, son président Kamel Jendoubi a justifié cette "décision" par des exigences de calendrier, sur la base des textes réglementaires régissant l'opération électorale.

Mardi, le gouvernement avait recommandé le maintien de la date initiale, malgré une première proposition de la commission favorable au report.

M. Jendoubi a longuement exposé devant les journalistes les délais nécessaires pour chaque étape de l'organisation du vote, depuis l'établissement des listes électorales jusqu'au dépôt des candidatures en passant par l'enregistrement des électeurs.

"Ce n'est pas de gaieté de coeur que nous avons décidé le report, mais le maintien de la date du 24 juillet aurait été beaucoup plus grave", a estimé Larbi Chouikha, membre de la commission, officiellement appelée "haute instance indépendante chargée de la préparation et de la supervision des élections".

Pour ce journaliste et universitaire, la commission avait pour souci de se conformer aux standards internationaux pour cette élection appelée à être "la première réellement libre, honnête et démocratique dans l'histoire de la Tunisie".

Il a, dans ce contexte, relevé de "nombreuses insuffisances et lacunes" techniques et logistiques que la commission se doit d'aplanir. Il a noté en particulier que quelque trois millions de citoyens ne figurent pas sur les listes électorales et des centaines de milliers d'autres ne disposent pas de cartes d'identité nationale ou détiennent des cartes anciennes non valides.

MM. Jendoubi et Chouikha ont éludé la question de savoir si la décision de la commission était définitive et irrévocable et si elle pouvait être remise en cause par le président de la République Fouad Mébazzaa et le gouvernement.

Interrogé sur ce point par l'Associated Press, le porte-parole du conseil des ministres Taïeb Baccouche s'est abstenu de tout commentaire. "La question sera examinée en conseil des ministres mardi prochain", a-t-il seulement indiqué.

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May 15, 2011

The GCC Monarchies Demarche (Jordan and... Morocco???)

Catching up on this piece of strange news, FT reported that the GCC had extended invite to Morocco and Jordan to join the GCC...

The Gulf Co-operation Council could be turning itself into the club of Arab monarchies as it considers bringing Jordan and Morocco into its fold, a move that would strengthen the political and economic capacity of the two countries’ leaders to fend off any popular challenge.

In a surprise announcement late on Tuesday, the GCC, which joins six oil-producing Gulf Arab states, said it was considering a request by Morocco and Jordan to join the bloc, even though the two poorer countries have little in common with existing members.

Following a GCC summit in Riyadh, Abdullatif al-Zayani, the secretary-general, said foreign ministers would be holding talks with the two non-Gulf countries to complete the procedures required for membership. It is not yet clear if membership will be granted or in what form.

The GCC was formed in 1981 in the wake of the Iranian revolution as an alliance of oil-producing monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.

This is, quite frankly, nonsensical. There is perhaps some vague Association logic with Jordan. But ... Morocco???

FT.com in its follow up only raises more questions in the later case 

Now, after decades of canny diplomacy and shifting loyalties, Jordan is finally preparing to enter what many in the country see as the safest harbour in the entire Middle East: the Gulf Co-operation Council, the alliance formed by the conservative, oil-drenched monarchies along the Persian Gulf.

According to analysts, the move would answer an old dilemma: “Since the collapse of Iraq [in 2003], Jordan has been very much left out in the cold. This move means that Jordan would become part of a collective – economically, politically and strategically,” said Nawaf Tell, the director of the Jordanian Center for Strategic Studies and a former diplomat.

Jordan was invited to the join the Gulf Co-operation Council only this week, along with Morocco. But while Moroccan commentators reacted with surprise to the announcement, saying they were unaware the country had applied in the first place, the response in Jordan was one of unconcealed delight.

At least Jordan has some direct cultural and geographic touch on GCC. Politically, however, I do not see this as being all that genuinely helpful to the Hashemite Monarchy, nor economically. The deep logic really escapes, although in some ways it is a better fit than Yemen.

The Moroccan side is just in the realm of bizarre, however, and I am actually stunned that the Palace pursued such a demarche (did they?)

In Morocco, analysts agree that closer association with the Gulf oil producers will bring economic advantages. But they also point out that the proposal has no geographical logic and appears to be politically driven.

“We were all very surprised by this,” said Nadia Lamlili, editor-in-chief of Economie et Entreprises magazine in Casablanca. “I’m not sure it has really been thought through,” she added.

Morocco has historically been part of the regional Arab Maghreb Union, which includes Algeria, Tunisia and Libya but has never made much progress towards economic integration, hampered especially by long-standing political problems between Morocco and Algeria.

A Moroccan source close to the palace emphasised on Thursday the historical association between Morocco and Gulf monarchies and said the GCC invitation should be seen in a long-term, strategic perspective, but not as preparing the way for an alliance among monarchies.

Well, actually I doubt such an association even brings any economic advantages, given the inability of the Gulf investors to really get their heads around the fact that Maghreb works differently than the Gulf or Machreq.

Going to have to talk to my palace friends to see what the take is - I wonder if on GCC got out ahead of where Morocco really is, given the upcoming constitutional reforms, etc.

For once I sympathise with otherwise somewhat annoying and tedious 20 February Movement.

Morocco’s February 20 Movement, which has been pushing for political reform, was sceptical. Osama El Khalifi, one of the movement’s founders, said the proposal looked like an attempt “to build a coalition against countries that have succeeded in making a change”.

That assessment is shared by many Jordanians. “The reading many people here have is that this is the [Arab] kingdoms trying to stand together against the Arab spring and the Arab revolution,” the Amman-based western envoy said.

Politically I don't think this is really helpful at all for the monarchy in Morocco.

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May 02, 2011

Ben Laden, post

There will be much bloviating about this, I was oddly puzzled in watching Al Jazeera this AM, at first did not quite believe it: Amid Cheers, a Message - ‘They Will Be Caught’ - NYTimes.com

“I don’t know if it will make us safer, but it definitely sends a message to terrorists worldwide,” said Stacey Betsalel, standing in Times Square with her husband, exchanging high fives. “They will be caught and they will have to pay for their actions. You can’t mess with the United States for very long and get away with it.”

Sentiments understandable, but Ben Laden 'messed with' the USA for over a decade... I rather think this will in the end make little difference, although politically for the sitting President, doubtless very helpful for him politically.

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April 28, 2011

Influence fantasies

I am always somewhat amused and puzzled when I read things like, Fatah-Hamas Deal Complicates U.S. Aid to Palestinians  :

The agreement, reached after secret talks brokered by Egypt, caught the Obama administration, like many others, by surprise. At a minimum it complicates the administration’s faltering hopes to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. It also casts doubt on American efforts in recent years to build up the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank, led by Fatah, as the legitimate leader of the Palestinians.

 It's amusing that the one even would think this is possible....

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April 18, 2011

NYT: Utter bollocks on US role in Arab uprisings

On the road at present, I ran into this article last week, in which the NYT makes the claim that U.S.-Financed Groups Had Supporting Role in Arab Uprisings something that I think is complete and utter bollocks. First, American democracy activist groups, financed by US Gov, have not been allowed in Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab '48 for literally decades. It is thus bizarre to go looking for American parentages to a phenomena that was and is entirely domestic. The article itself focuses on Egypt and Bahrain and an individual in Yemen... And to my read given what I have seen on the ground is a bunch of special pleading / spin by the "development community" to claim credit where little is due. I suppose in Egypt some tangential credit might be granted, but there seems little evidence of this:

But as American officials and others look back at the uprisings of the Arab Spring, they are seeing that the United States’ democracy-building campaigns played a bigger role in fomenting protests than was previously known, with key leaders of the movements having been trained by the Americans in campaigning, organizing through new media tools and monitoring elections.

Again, as the Tunisians took the lead, but did not "benefit" as such from this kind of American "assistance" I am quite dubious that training by Americans in campaigning, organizing or the like has any substantive impact. Of course Key Leaders is a fine weasel phrase that could be given almost any meaning.

I'd rather say the real article is more about how people like this:

“We didn’t fund them to start protests, but we did help support their development of skills and networking,” said Stephen McInerney, executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, a Washington-based advocacy and research group. “That training did play a role in what ultimately happened, but it was their revolution. We didn’t start it.”

Are trying to obtain post-facto credit for things that they in fact had fuck all to do with.
 
As for the article's emphasis on the various governments being sensitive to and  in fact hostile to American funding of political groups, well.... what bloody government on the planet including the US of A looks kindly on outside governments giving funding to political groups? Certainly not the US government, nor any W. European governments I can think of. I mean really it is pretty bloody simple.

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March 24, 2011

Useful thoughts on intervention: realism, not pessimism re Libya

This note in The Best Defense | FOREIGN POLICY is very useful and adult, given the hyperventilating "ohmygod we're in Iraq part II or Somalia"going on (and perhaps also useful also to the dismissive types that think that putting Western troops in is a great next step):

Everybody's going all wobbly over Libya, except those who never liked the idea in the first place. Tom's advice: Calm down. We have done what we set out to do in Libya. We kicked the door down, and with radars and SAM sites degraded, have made it possible for lesser air forces to patrol the skies over Qaddafi.

We should now say, OK, we have created the conditions, time for you all to have the courage of your convictions. The goal now for the United States, I think, is a negative one: To not be conducting a no-fly zone over Libya 5 years or even 5 months from now. If the French and Italians want to park the good ships Charles de Gaulle and Garibaldi off the Libyan coast, good. And if the Arab states want to maintain an air cap over Benghazi, fine. Step right up, fellas.

As for the American military, let's knock off the muttering in the ranks about clear goals and exit strategies. Fellas, you need to understand this is not a football game but a soccer match. For the last 10 years, our generals have talked about the need to become adaptable, to live with ambiguity. Well, this is it

Illustrative of the challenges, from yesterday's Libya crisis: live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

10.30am: Time magazine has a good piece on the difficulties - understandable enough - the rebels in Benghazi have in cobbling together an effective alternative government and fighting force at the same time.

"The big problem here is that most of the revolutionary guys don't trust the military people because a lot of military guys were with Gaddafi from the start," says Najla Elmangoush, a criminal-law professor at Benghazi's Garyounis University and an activist at council headquarters. "We welcomed them when they joined," she adds. "But people are concerned that maybe they'll try anytime to change sides." The regime is trying to encourage that fear, spreading false rumors last weekend that rebel commander Younis had returned to the regime's camp.

Emphasis added: very obviously this is something that the Guide has promoted from the get go (the distrust among parties) and something that is not easy to solve. On the other hand, Western advisors on the ground may be helpful in (i) hammering some sense into the activist types with their fuzzy beliefs, and (ii) helping act as a spine stiffening to discourage disintegration / side switching.

Also worthy of attention, this report
In Tripoli, Airstrike Damage and a More Outspoken Population - NYTimes.com which I note by the fact that officers in Tripoli were willing to hint at ... support to the Coalition airstrikes, is very indicative that while not entirely mercenary (as some would have it, lapping up the Rebellion propaganda) it is fragile. 

But Capt. Abdul Baset Ali, a Libyan naval officer, said no one had been injured or killed because the Libyan government had expected the attack and evacuated.

“Nobody was here because we knew this place may be targeted, so we went far away,” he said. Asked what the future holds for Libya, he said: “Nobody knows. We hope it will be good.”

One military officer, asking for anonymity so he could speak openly, said that he respected the Western goal of establishing a no-fly zone to protect Libyan civilians, but that the broad scope of the attacks risked creating a backlash. “This is not the way to shift out Qaddafi,” he said.

Though the airstrikes do not appear to have led to any new uprising against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi here, there was evidence that they had had a significant psychological impact. On an organized stroll through the old city with Qaddafi government minders, several Tripoli residents approached foreign journalists to offer their disdain or impatience with the Qaddafi government. Sometimes they spoke within just a few yards of a government representative.

Offered the bromide that it was a beautiful country, one man replied in perfect English, “It will be after we change the system.”

Emphasis added.

This is all the more reason to not engage either in magical thinking about the nature or capacity of the Rebellion, or in undue pessimism. A dash of realism and thus an ability to address the Rebellion's weaknesses (CLANDESTINLY forGov's sake I hope the governments suck up the negative press and keep things on the down low) can make this happen. In any case, one has to be equally realistic about the actual menu of choices, which do actually include Libya just slipping peacefully back into slumber under the chaos of the permanent revolution. Those eggs are broken.

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March 22, 2011

Non binaries: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War?

The NY Times poses this burning question: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War? - NYTimes.com Well, it's not an either or, now is it?

A bit unfair perhaps, but I find the answer to their question:

Is the battle for Libya the clash of a brutal dictator against a democratic opposition, or is it fundamentally a tribal civil war?

To be "Yes."

Or more shortly, it is clearly not just a tribal civil war, although it could evolve in that direction, but neither is the opposition abstract democrats. They oppose Qadhdhafi (an eminently sensible position regardless of one's politics). After that....

“It is a very important question that is terribly near impossible to answer,” said Paul Sullivan, a political scientist at Georgetown University who has studied Libya. “It could be a very big surprise when Qaddafi leaves and we find out who we are really dealing with.”

Well, I shouldn't think it is a surprise as such. One is dealing with a chaotic melange of people who hate Qadhdhafi, which as reflected in even the wider Arab public's response, is "pretty much anyone of any political flavour, excepting only those people directly supported and/or related to him."

Of course saying he only has mercenaries, as I have noted in passing on several occasions, is a wee bit too simple. His support is more fundamentally of a tribal logic.

Returning to the opposition, there are clearly some nasty people there, ex-regime figures who are not particularly wonderful folks, Islamists of a quasi-Takfiri inclination, etc.

I'd hazard the opinion that there are precious few liberal democratic types in Libya, so expecting a Liberal Democratic Revolution is the height of idiocy.

Nevertheless, insofar as Qadhdhafi unleashed hell in response to the demonstrations, and the Eggs of Stability are already broken, one has to move forward with that reality (this in contrast with the Iraq situation, where Bush ibn Bush willfully and with precious little understanding, started breaking eggs - an active choice).

The behavior of the fledgling rebel government in Benghazi so far offers few clues to the rebels’ true nature.

Errr, no. It offers lots of clues. First of which, they're not a unitary movement, second of which they don't have a "True Nature" in a unitary sense, and that this chaotic mix can go in a lot of different directions - probably bad directions but certainly bad directions if there is no countervailing influence.

Further to that, I find this sort of writing just strange (although after typing that I stopped to think, well, the Journo needs to convey that the heroic image of the freedom fighter and the credence given by many to the claims out of the Rebellion, needs, ahem, some nauncing):

Like the Qaddafi government, the operation around the rebel council is rife with family ties. And like the chiefs of the Libyan state news media, the rebels feel no loyalty to the truth in shaping their propaganda, claiming nonexistent battlefield victories, asserting they were still fighting in a key city days after it fell to Qaddafi forces, and making vastly inflated claims of his barbaric behavior.

Marhaben il Libya, bled al Jamahiriyah.

Let's just say that nothing about Libyan political culture over the past 50 years has built anything like objectivity into public discourse (if I may engage in moderate understatement).

As to the notes on violence, this is in fact a good thing to highlight:

In the neighborhoods of the capital that have staged major peaceful protests against Colonel Qaddafi, many have volunteered — speaking on the condition of anonymity — that their demonstrations were nonviolent mainly because they could not obtain weapons fast enough.

Even one religious leader associated with Sufism — a traditionally pacifist sect something like the Islamic equivalent of the Quakers — lamented his own tribe’s lack of guns for the fight.

That stands in sharp contrast to Libya’s neighbors, Tunisia and Egypt. In Egypt, in particular, the young leaders of the revolution were so seized with an ethic of nonviolence that in the middle of winning a battle of thrown stones against a loyalist mob, two young protesters said they believed they had lost, simply because they had resorted to violence.

Emphasis added.
Sufism is not a pacifist sect like the Quakers. It's not even a "sect" - it is an approach to worship, like Charismatics in Christianity.

I have no idea why Westerners can't get it fucking right re Sufism. It appears that pacifist quasi Quaker stuff sold by Indian Swamis in the 1960s can't be removed from English speaking consciousness.

Aside from that, the contrast with Tunisia and Egypt is correct: Egypt and Tunisia are relatively modernized societies, Tunisia more than Egypt, and

Of course expecting Non Violence to be a preferred methodology (this reminds me of Andrew Sullivan's idiocy a few days ago on this subject) in the face of The Guide, who rather obviously has few compunctions about violence, is more than a bit precious.

Continue reading "Non binaries: A Libyan Fight for Democracy, or a Civil War?"

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March 19, 2011

Libya Intervention Nuances

As a close to the evening, some nuances. Listneing to BBC I heard an American Lt. General - missed the name - engage in that very American military analysis of others characters, saying he did not expect Qadhdhafi to stick after more pressure, that he lacked the "good moral centre" and that he would "remove himself from Libya"... Queer analysis, that's what people seem to have been writing since this started. I can't say I had a sense from the US military types interviewed they really have gotten beyond a terribly colonial view of Arabs. I rather predict his predictions that this will be over in days, weeks "not months" will not prove out.

But regardless, in conversations with various MENA colleagues of mine, a nuance about support for this intervention. Now that there are actual planes in the air, a contradictory reaction has emerged in the conversations, the Qadhdhafi anti-colonial rhetoric echoes a bit. I think Mark Lynch is right - very right - to warn that in-region (and probably in-Libya) support for the intervention is thin and fragile.

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March 18, 2011

Text of Security Council Resolution on Libya: License to Kill the Qadhdhafi Regime?

Louns ETA: [Moving this up as it deserves review and reflexion]
Marty McFly fled armed Libyans in Back to the Future but in this time period and real world a martial no-fly zone -- or something far larger, even an authorization to aerially and materially assist in a war to unseat Qadhdhafi -- has been declared by the UN Security Council (SC 1973). Text of resolution follows below some initial commentary.

Continue reading "Text of Security Council Resolution on Libya: License to Kill the Qadhdhafi Regime?"

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Sullivan bis: Delerium & Fantasy re Libya & impact "Arab 48"

ETA: The LibGov has declared a ceasefire (via the ForMin), but I rather suspect this is a delaying action and not real on the ground (reports seem to indicate that indeed combat continues). Probable intention is to have a pause (likely needed in the East to bring up logistics), use rebels ongoing pushback as excuse to resume.

Really should combine, but off to meeting, so   Andrew Sullivan

That seems to me to be a minimal requirement for such a drastic and risky action. The Congress must have a debate and vote on this. It's hard to express how disappointed I am not just by the administration's decision but by the president's refusal even to explain a third war to the American people. And he's now off to Brazil ...? Is he kidding?

This from a fellow who full-throatedly backed the Iraq war. Insofar as I can tell the US has merely voted support for the UN resolution (and never mind how comical it would be to bring the Congress to debate in the closing hours of Benghazi over the theatre of the No Fly). Really, Sullivan is over compensating for his idiocy over the Iraq war, with deeper stupidity about the No Fly.

The most important part of the UN vote last night was no the actual No Fly (although France resuming its old war with Qadhdhafi has an interesting side to it), but the effect of stiffening the spines of the Rebellion. Morale effect. And worth an effort.

Unless of course Sullivan and the others can advance a scenario where Libya reconquered by Qadhdhafi, but awash in weapons 'liberated' from Government depots and filled with embittered rebels does not turn into a Chechnya or an Algeria c. 1993 (except next to Tunisia and Egypt, themselves struggling to establish stability) with the rebels turning to the hard-core Takfiri Jihad wing as their point of reference....

Continue reading "Sullivan bis: Delerium & Fantasy re Libya & impact "Arab 48""

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March 11, 2011

No Fly & the Full Qadhdhafi

ETA prefix:
This could be the opening needed for support to the Rebellion, let us hope that Arab League shows more spine than it has ever before in its existence (helped along by the fact that none of them have ever liked the Guide):Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

3.59pm: 3.57pm: The Arab League is apparently set to back a no-fly zone over Libya, according to Reuters, who quote the Hungarian foreign minister, Janos Martonyi.

"The most important thing is that the Arab League agrees with [it]," he said.
"The expectation is that they will support [the] no-fly zone under some conditions."

First, it rather appears that Qadhdhafi has launched a fullish military campaign now:

Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

2.59pm: More details and colour from Reuters:

The sound of explosions and small arms fire came from Ras Lanuf on Friday as government troops landed from the sea backed by tanks and air power fought to recapture the oil port town.
A large column of black smoke billowed from storage tanks at an oil installation, television pictures showed, after what Arab channels said was a series of government air strikes.

2.56pm: An update on the fighting in Ras Lanuf. A look at this map helps put things in context

(AP) The rebels appeared to have a tenacious hold around the oil facilities at Ras Lanuf, taking refuge among the towering storage containers of crude oil and gas. Government forces stopped directing their fire at those positions, apparently to avoid blowing up the facility's infrastructure, according to fighters.
Instead, the pro-Gaddafi troops, positioned in Ras Lanuf's residential about 10 miles (16 kilometers) east of the oil port across a barren desert no man's land, were raining rockets and shelling along the main coastal highway, targeting rebel vehicles trying to reinforce and bring supplies to the port, said Mohammed Gherani, a rebel fighter.
The bodies of at least three opposition fighters killed in the shelling were brought to rebel-held Brega, a larger oil port to the west, bringing the toll from two days of battles at Ras Lanouf to at least nine.

There is a real chance Qadhdhafi can entirely reverse his losses in the west, not clear to me regarding the East, fundamentally more hostile to him as it is. Nevertheless, as my earlier notes indicated, the Rebellion must rapidly get more organised and serious or they are in deep trouble. This may also make them more open to foreign support, but unless they are more organised, foreign support isn't going to do much (although there is probably a synergestic relationship between potential for foreign support and getting organised, as else a reverse of the abandoning of the regime is as likely to emerge as not).

It's worth highlighting the disorganisation:Libya uprising - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

2.05pm: AP offers a fascinating profile of the rebels fighting for Ras Lanuf and hoping to work their way to Tripoli:

"The front-line force … is surprisingly small. Not counting supporters who bolster them in the towns along their path, it is estimated at 1,500 at most Libyans from all walks of life, from students and coffee-shop owners to businessmen who picked up whatever weapons they could and joined the fight. No one seems to know their full size, and they could be picking up new members all the time …

"The rebel force is a leaderless collection of volunteers, operating in an evolving collaboration with soldiers who deserted various units over the past month and are still be trying to organise themselves. It's not clear who, if anyone is giving orders …

"The volunteer militiamen largely have been acting and reacting as a pack to government assaults, launching initiatives wherever they can. They ride around in dozens of pick-up trucks, some with machine guns and anti-aircraft guns strapped to the back. Some rebels have weapons, while others seem hardly able to operate a gun …

"Many of the fighters come from Benghazi, the main city in the rebel-controlled eastern half of the country. They are united by hatred for Gaddafi and a burning desire to overthrow him and establish a state under the rule of law."

Romantic gallantry, but leaderless 'flash-mob,' cell-phone organised cluelessness with AKs in the face of a real army is going to go down in bloody failure. It is not possible to help this mob unless they get themselves organised, and fast.

(Edited to add additional item from Fareed Zakaria's The Libyan Conundrum - TIME

Continue reading "No Fly & the Full Qadhdhafi"

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March 10, 2011

Franco British demarche for intervention

This may actually lead somewhere, and given the signs that the Rebellion could be in for serious reversals, comes at a good moment, as the anti-intervention feelings in the Rebellion will likely be seriously cooled.

From guardian.co.uk

Continue reading "Franco British demarche for intervention"

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March 02, 2011

Corvée noire: Guide's 'Mercenaries'

This is not surprising behaviour from The Guide

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1627: The BBC's Hausa service has spoken to Niger nationals fleeing Libya. They said there are widespread reports of people from sub-saharan Africa being arrested.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1632: Disturbingly, the Niger nationals said those people arrested are being made to choose between joining Col Gaddafi's army or being killed.

BBC News - Protests across the Middle East and North Africa

1537: People from Niger who have fled Libya tell BBC Hausa that there have been widespread arrests of sub-Saharan Africans. They say they are being forced to either join Col Gaddafi's forces or be killed.

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Libya, cautionary notes re Qaddafi 'irrationality'

This note from NY Times is quite good (and sums up similar evals I have been seeing): Even a Weakened Qaddafi May Be Hard to Dislodge - NYTimes.com

Although it is fun to call The Guide a mad man and mock his sanity, it's important not to miss the signs that for all his flamboyance and eccentricity, he is neither stupid nor per se delusional (i.e. à la Hitler moving imaginary units as reported re his behaviour behind closed doors). Talking up things grandiosely in public should not be confused with private, behind doors behaviour:

But Colonel Qaddafi retains significant strength, Mr. Joshi said. He is thought to still control the air force, though some elements have defected. And while there have been clashes in Tripoli, with sniper and small-arms fire in areas of the capital, “it is not a war zone and not a city in rebellion,” he said.

While the colonel is thought to be delusional, he and his commanders have proved capable so far of using their forces with some care, Mr. Joshi said. “There have been no large massacres, air power is being used in a calculated way and he is launching probing attacks” while “making constant efforts in the suburbs of Tripoli to check small gestures of dissent.”

The struggle in Libya “could go on a long time,” Mr. Joshi said. “Tripoli is not a bunker. And this is not the decision-making of a man totally out of touch with reality.”

Emphasis added.
I have certainly already given my estimation to the people who pay me very good money for such that planning should be for months of fighting, i.e. no quick reprise of economic (business) activity.

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February 25, 2011

Tunisia, Don't forget Tunisia.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Don't Forget Tunisia
25 Feb 2011 05:19 pm

J. Scott Carpenter says it is "going to need help from the international community - and a lot of it":

If Tunisia doesn't succeed, no other country in the region can. Tunisia's 10 million inhabitants do not suffer the ethnic and sectarian divisions that bedevil many of their neighbors. Tunisians are well educated and largely middle class -- 80 percent own their own homes. Nearly all Tunisians practice the same form of moderate Islam. The populace looks to Europe for its economic and political inspiration. The cry Tunisians made famous around the world during their revolution, "Dégage!" (Get out!), is tellingly in French, not Arabic.

The underlying article is good, but the emphasized parts are annoying. Just because someone speaks French or English well doesn't mean moderation. Tedious condensation that (doubtless the writer, a former State person, was a francophone). Same re "moderate Islam" - I understand why it has to be said in these articles but really it gets tiresome.

Let me suggest an alternative, "the ordinary, non-extremist Islam of most of the Islamic world..." - excepting the seriously retarded places, (AfPak, Gulf).

 

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February 23, 2011

The Libyan Mirage Defection: Maltese First account

Very interesting note from Malta's English newspaper

INDEPENDENT online

.... Meanwhile, AFM sources have told this newspaper that the jets, ... broke out of formation when their squadron was ordered to attack Libyan civilians. ..

While it is not yet known whether the two Colonels were in command of the mission and whether they encouraged their fellow pilots to make for Malta, it has been established that the two aircraft peeled off and dove for the deck. They flew below 500 feet to avoid detection while in Libyan airspace – presumably both out of fear of surface-to-air missiles being launched from Libya and also to lose the rest of the squadron. It is understood that the flight, which takes about 40-45 minutes on a commercial jet liner, took only six to nine minutes in the Mirages, as afterburners were engaged. In pilot talk, as one source put it, they “bunted, dove for the deck, hit the afterburners and screamed towards Malta”.

There are two accounts of how the aircraft made contact. Some sources say they requested emergency landing clearance as they were out of fuel (Malta is obliged to acquisce), while others said that the planes landed in formation and only announced their arrival when they set down on the tarmac on the commercial runway.

The newspaper also notes that the flight time is scary for Malta as a reminder of how close they are to Libya should more serious trouble breaks out.

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Notes of Caution re Qadhdhafi support (& civil war)

A useful note from Leila Fadel in the Washington post regarding the mixed bag in Libya.

In Libya, increasingly divergent views of Gaddafi

In Libya, increasingly divergent views of Gaddafi

By Leila Fadel
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; A01

TOBRUK, LIBYA - On Libya's northeastern border, there are no visa procedures and no passport-control officers. There's just a gaggle of armed young men - defected soldiers and police officers - waving people through.

"Welcome to the new Libya," reads a graffiti tag at the crossing.

The young men eagerly displayed cellphone videos that they said depicted government mercenaries shooting down women, children and men. They told of rapes, looting and killings over the past week, as demonstrators have risen up in open revolt and the government of Moammar Gaddafi has cracked down hard.

"Our leader is a tyrant, and he'll kill us all in cold blood," said Hassan el-Modeer, a British-educated engineer. "The world needs to intervene as soon as possible."

Opposition supporters described this area to visitors as the "liberated eastern region of Libya," and anti-government sentiment runs high here.

But it is also clear that deep divisions remain. Even in this coastal town, more than 900 miles from Libya's capital and in an area that has slipped well beyond the government's control, some still support Gaddafi, who has ruled this country for 41 years

Further in the article is noted signs of ongoing support - no reason to believe not genuine - of the Guide. It is easy to get caught up in the moving video and emails, etc., from Libya and underestimate the potential of 'counter-revolutionary' blowback from people with various reasons to support The Guide.

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Jamahiri-ism Blowback:

An interesting hypothesis re The Guide's popular committees habit actually having some blowback for him in providing institutions for popular revolt - the real kind.

Blog - The Arabist

Reports from liberated east Libyan cities suggest an impressive level of organization on the part of the populace, with most basic urban functions up and running. One wonders if Qaddafi's ideosyncratic jamahiriyan ideology, roping people into participating in rubber-stamp "Basic People's Congresses" to create a facade of direct democracy, has in fact formed the provided the institutional template for a countrywide insurrection against him.

Intriguing propo, not sure if it will stand up, but interesting. 

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February 09, 2011

Egypt Funding Machine bis

The financing of the government is also in play, as the issue of deposits with State banks comes to the fore.

FT.com / Emerging Markets - Egypt faces bleak outlook on debt

Egypt’s debt markets, particularly its local currency denominated bonds and bills, will find support from liquid local banks. However, these banks are not entirely uncritical buyers of Egyptian debt and could see their ability to finance the government deficit weaken if depositors continue to withdraw money.

The central bank was forced to cut the planned treasury bill sale this week to E£13bn ($2.9bn), and increase the price it paid to local banks that picked up almost all of the issue.

“On one hand you have a liquid local banking sector as an anchor but, on the other, you have a deterioration of Egypt’s credit profile,” says Mr Kolbe. “A lot depends on what happens on the political side but we expect the market to remain volatile and spreads to remain elevated at this stage.”

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February 08, 2011

Egypt Sells Most of Treasury Debt Offered as Yields Climb to Two-Year High

Well that worked, but...:

Egypt Sells Most of Treasury Debt Offered as Yields Climb to Two-Year High - Bloomberg

Egypt raised most of the 15 billion Egyptian pounds ($2.5 billion) it sought at a debt auction as local banks stepped in to provide financing in the wake of protests aimed at ending President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule.

The government sold a total 13 billion pounds of bills, paying yields of 10.97 percent on 91-day notes, the highest rate in two years and up 147 basis points, or 1.47 percentage point, from the previous sale on Jan. 27. The yield is down from 14 percent in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse in September 2008.

“We were expecting yields to be higher but government banks especially National Bank of Egypt helped stabilize the market,” Khalil El Bawab, the head of fixed-income at Cairo- based EFG-Hermes Asset Management, said in a telephone interview. National Bank of Egypt Chairman Tarek Amer said that the bank will continue to buy government t-bills

Emphasis added
One part of the Gov stepped in to buy the other part's issuance.

Of course that is less liquidity for the private sector, but since Egyptian public banks do tied lending....

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Egypt: the Mamlouk Market

An analysis from Daily Dish that 'gets the game' of what I have been calling on Giraffe, The Waiting Game:

The "Manufactured Safety" Of Egypt's Army - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

The basic facts: 1) The military profits handsomely from the current power structure. 2) Mubarak's unpopularity threatens to bring down the govenment and therefore put the military's spoils in jeopardy. 3) The military can't make Mubarak leave yet - otherwise power would transfer out of the military's hands. 4) The military can't crack down on the protesters because that would cause an internal rift - some members of the army would likely refuse to fire - which would risk mutiny. 5) For Egypt's veep, Omar Suleiman, to assume power he needs to either change the constitution or wait until the next election and rig the vote in his favor.

The private hostility and the public neutrality of the army makes sense if the military elite's main goal is to maintain its access to the treasury. The army is not neutral - it's tactical.

Quite.

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Tunisia Appeal for Aid

A smart appeal, although I suspect the US, instead of investing in the country where it has the greatest liklihood of effect (and where it chose the side of Angels), will continue to pour billions down the Egyptian rat hole.

FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Tunisia appeals for aid to protect democracy

Tunisia’s interim prime minister, Mohammed Ghannouchi, has appealed for international funding to “protect the Tunisian experiment”, insisting that the cost “would be really very modest compared with what is at stake”.

He told The Financial Times in an interview there was no guarantee that the transition to democracy after the toppling of Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali as president last month would go smoothly. The popular uprising inspired protest campaigns across the Arab world, most notably in Egypt.
 
“There are forces that would like to take it back to square one,” he said. “All the people who have things they can reproach themselves for, who profited from the old system, are going to do all they can to hinder this democratic process.”

 

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February 07, 2011

Neither Free Market nor Lbieral, Egypt

An Item I must return to as it is my speciality

Resentment Finds a Target In Ahmed Ezz - NYTimes.com

On paper, the changes transformed an almost entirely state-controlled economic system to a predominantly free-market one. In practice, though, a form of crony capitalism emerged, according to Egyptian and foreign experts. State-controlled banks acted as kingmakers, extending loans to families who supported the government but denying credit to viable businesspeople who lacked the right political pedigree.

This is in effect part of the problem of that kind of regime. The usual Left academic critique is that " IMF diktat"  (a phrase that one can only use if one has actually no experience with IMF and their limp-wristed ways with such regimes) forces 'neo-liberal'  economics down the throats of countries like Egypt. Quite the contrary, Egypt came to these reforms on the bankruptcy of their state-driven model, with all the crony-ism and gross and massive inefficiencies that State models everywhere have shown. They adopted part of the IMF & WB advice re privatisation for greater efficiency, but only part. They did not adopt free market reforms as such. Unfortunately, privatisations were merely transfers from nominal state ownership with monopoly control to regime-cronies with monopoly control (as well as Military related control). More efficient than the state, yes, but not overall better for the population. Pseudo free market without a reasonably free press to critique regime and cronies, and without a reasonably free financial system (the Egyptian system remains massively state dominated, which as this note correctly indicates, doesn't mean more ' social' direction, it means more ability for rent extraction), you get this Frankenstein system.

Of course people hate this system, it combines the worst features of both systems.

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February 03, 2011

Harper's Interpretation of Canadian Immigration Law

1) Said Jaziri, professional idiot, cromanion imam, lawful permanent resident, Canadian family, risking torture under the Ben Ali regime. Deported.

2) Belhassen Trabelsi, psychopath, godfather at the top of a totalitarian state, searched by Interpol, came to Canada one week ago. Difficult to deport.

Posted by Shaheen at 11:26 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?

A very short answer, only in the delusional imaginations of certain Americans.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?
08 Feb 2011 05:19 pm

by Conor Friedersdorf

Above Mickey Kaus surmises yes, and Bob Wright forcefully insists no. On this one, I agree with Bob, and I've never understood why seeing the United States military invade a country and establish a democracy would inspire revolutions elsewhere. It was never ignorance of democracy's existence that was stopping other Arab populations from rising up – and it isn't as if "get invaded by America" was a viable strategy or a desired thing elsewhere.

 

 

Continue reading "Did Iraq Inspire Egyptians And Tunisians?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:21 AM | Comments (0)

The Mubarek Gamble: The Counter-Rev.

A smart analysis,

Egypt protests: Mubarak shows his dark side | Simon Tisdall | Comment is free | The Guardian

Mubarak's speech to the nation on Tuesday night was widely misinterpreted. The president was, by turns, angry, defiant and unrepentant. He offered no apologies, proposed no new initiatives, gave no promise that his son Gamal would not succeed him, and instead lectured Egyptians on the importance of order and stability (which he alone could assure).

Continue reading "The Mubarek Gamble: The Counter-Rev."

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February 02, 2011

Mubarek Regime Strategy

An item worth reading to understand regime strategy

Continue reading "Mubarek Regime Strategy"

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The Shame of Tuesday: Cairo & The Grave

I entitled my thread at Giraffe Boards The Mubarek Denouement: Egypt dances past the grave thinking I was being wryly amusing.

That turns out not to have been the case. As I started reflecting in that thread, I have been suspecting for several days now - based not only on following the news but things I have heard from friends in region who ... well have a reason to know such information that Mubarek had sworn not do as Ben Ali.

Today's events, after some hope on Tuesday that something could move, showed that Mubarek & Co. believe that they can bluster their way through this, and that their analysis of Ben Ali - he was cowardly, his nerve cracked - is driving them to drive Egypt towards the abyss.

Repeating from the Thread's last post.

Emphasis added.

Returning to my sceptical analysis of weeks back, I do feel I was right in that the Mubarek system has deeper roots than Ben Ali, and there are more people with more to lose if he goes. That opens the door to the Chinese option, although that US$1bn might slightly counteract.

A comment in the same vein by Richard Spencer of the Telegraph:

What I fear here is that Mubarek et al are generating a situation where neither they nor the moderate protesters come out whole, and that in fact he is preparing the ground for an extreme end of the Ikhouan.

This in contrast with Ben Ali, as my wife said, we are just now appreciating what he spared Tunisia.

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February 01, 2011

Americans Smarter Than Canadians About Egypt?

I know that among you sophisticated international typesCanadians, among others, are supposed to be smarter than Us Dumbo ‘mericans. But this comment in an AP story on foreigners evacuating Egypt makes me wonder. I’ve deleted the individual’s name because I am not singling him out personally, especially as there are apparently 34 other Maple Leaferssimilarly, um, unperceptive. But is this an example of how out of touch expert resident expats are about Egypt?

"We did not see the protests coming. All of us have been surprised," said . . . the deputy head of the Canadian International School in Cairo, who left Egypt along with 34 of his colleagues

Continue reading "Americans Smarter Than Canadians About Egypt?"

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January 31, 2011

BACK!!! (and links to my other comments)

I've been missing this but for technical reasons haven't been able to blog. Now I can. I have been making comment at Giraffe Boards; notably on Tunisia and on Egypt.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:59 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

January 30, 2011

Rached Ghannouchi Returns to Tunisia (with rant on Anti-Islamist Panic)

Exiled Ennahda party leader Rached Ghannouchi was received by enthusiastic crowd when his plane landed. Given that he is somewhat of an Islamist, apparenlty his presence doesn't count as a step towards True Democracy, in the proposals of Robert Satloff, who wants the US to sponsor a new wave of Arab democratic government which would, apparently, not allow any non-secular or at least Islamist party to participate. In other words, the same thing all over again, a Ben Ali, only with multiple parties. Rant below, on anti-Islamist Panic.

Continue reading "Rached Ghannouchi Returns to Tunisia (with rant on Anti-Islamist Panic)"

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July 22, 2010

Turkey & the Israel to do, American silliness

I dislike commenting on the entire Israel-Palestine fiasco, it's a pointless and endless running sore that won't be solved until the Americans stop reflexively backing every bit of Israeli security-overreach.

But this is very queer. The Americans publicly questioning the Turkish alliance. This is idiocy:

FT.com   Turkey: The sentinel swivels

Conversely, the perception in Washington is that Ankara is becoming a volatile and unreliable partner. Some in Congress view the breakdown of relations with Israel as proof of an eastward tilt by an authoritarian Islamist government. US officials, usually careful to keep differences behind closed doors, are expressing doubts. Philip Gordon, assistant secretary of state and one of Turkey’s strongest supporters in the state department, says the country’s commitment to Nato, the EU and the US “needs to be demonstrated”.

The Americans - and I have heard this in speaking now and again with American diplomats - are simply daft to put their alliance in question over Israel. Turkey is a rather more useful and important actor, and one with a growing ego (and economy). The quoted statement is the highest form of self-regarding idiocy. Tone deaf, blind to Turkish frustrations with EU (bloody hell, after the Turks get stiff armed, the Americans say THEY have to demonstrate commitment?)

 

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July 20, 2010

Leb Land & Gas

No not from badly cooked falafel but off-shore natural gas. It is hard to know what to make of this, but one does rather think this will eventually become the excuse of another Leb-Israel showdown (taking the idiocy of the autistic Israeli government as a given for the next few years).

FT.com / Middle East - Gas field threatens fresh Lebanon-Israel dispute

Gas field threatens fresh Lebanon-Israel dispute

By Ferry Biedermann in Beirut

 

Trouble is brewing in the waters off the coast of Lebanon and Israel about the future of one of the largest discoveries of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean.

A field known as Leviathan might contain 16 trillion cubic feet of gas – enough to serve Israel’s domestic needs and make the country a substantial exporter.

However, on the Leb side, even if a deal were worked out, given Lebanese public governance (if that is not an oxymoron), one does rather suspect that the benefits would mostly accrue to the Plastic Surgery Crowd (for all that a disciplined pay-down of their public debt would be wiser).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 17, 2010

Quixotic Arab Sat Plans

I am bemused by this report. I have a very hard time believing there is market space for yet another Arab Sat in the news space (although perhaps it might convince the USA to finally put to death the laughing stock fiasco of its state run news service, Al Hurra)

Sky News considers launch in Arabic | Media | guardian.co.uk

BSkyB is in talks about launching a Sky News-branded 24-hour Arabic language service in conjunction with an Abu Dhabi-based private investor.

It would compete with the Qatar-based al-Jazeera and other Arabic language news services in the Middle East and North Africa.

Sky said that the channel will launch within the next two years if the discussions are successful.

The new channel, which would be a 50/50 joint venture between the two parties, will be based in Abu Dhabi and have bureaux "in most major regional and international news centres".

It would be broadcast free-to-air across the Middle East and North Africa regions offering, according to Sky News, "independent and neutral coverage of the news agenda".

"The Middle East is undergoing rapid economic and social development and is becoming an increasingly attractive region for media investment," said John Ryley, head of Sky News. "This venture would build on our existing strengths as an international news provider and bring the Sky News brand to a new audience. Discussions are progressing well and we look forward to bringing a new approach to Arabic-language news."

Well, I suppose if some gullible Emirati is willing to plump for this....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:30 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Global Arab President Pimping Network

This site has been popping up on my google robots for some months now. The more it does so, the more I become irritated by it.

Global Arab Network | IMF: Tunisian President Ben Ali's program strengthening financial system | Finance

IMF: Tunisian President Ben Ali's program strengthening financial system
Friday, 16 July 2010 13:22
Tunisia_Bourse
Tunisia (Tunis) - Global Arab Network has received the International Monetary report on Tunisia. According to this report, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s program includes as an objective the strengthening of the financial system . The program focuses on four major themes (consolidation of the fundamentals, increasing banks’ presence in the economy and improving banking services, restructuring the banking system, and promoting the presence of Tunisian banks abroad).

 This sort of transparent puffery really is boringly irritating.

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July 15, 2010

Tunisia, a paragon of ... backsliding

The Ben Ali regime is clever, I have to give them that. Dressing up regime-self-protection as economic security is interesting.

FT.com / Middle East - Tunisia accused of harassing its critics

The law opens to punishment any Tunisian who contacts foreign parties with the aim of harming the country’s “economic security”. It seems aimed particularly at local human rights activists who lobby for more pressure on their government from the European Union, Tunisia’s foremost trade and investment partner

Ah the poor Ben Alis, one would hardly want to crimp the lifestyle.

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Are they Bloody Daft?: US Department of State: Maghreb Entrepreneurship Conference September 29-30, 2010 in Algiers

I mean really. Algeria? Is the American government bloody daft? Algeria is doing everything possible to make life hell for entrepreneurs and foreign investors. I guess Petrol talks, but bloody hell this may be one of the stupidest site hostings (and Algiers... well people can enjoy the State-run splendour of El Aurassi, that fine monument to the brilliance of state hotels - and museum to the 1970s glory days).

US Department of State: Maghreb Entrepreneurship Conference September 29-30, 2010 in Algiers Builds on Presidential Summit on Entrepreneurship

 

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July 08, 2010

Emirtes, how very unemirati this bombing idea

This is so very un-Emirati, saying something in public like this:

FT.com UAE official backs use of force against Iran

The United Arab Emirates on Wednesday tried to control the diplomatic fallout after the country’s ambassador to Washington urged the US to use force to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Yousef al-Otaiba, an influential figure in the UAE’s government, told an audience at the Aspen Ideas Festival in the US that a nuclear-armed Iran would be a greater disaster than a military strike.
 
His remarks shed rare light on the hawkish attitude of some Arab states that are desperate to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In public, the UAE and some of its neighbours try to maintain cordial relations with Tehran. Privately, however, they appear terrified of the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran dominating the region.

They also fear that Barack Obama’s administration is moving towards a policy of containing Iran, rather than stopping its drive towards nuclear capability

Not that an American military strike on Iran makes any sense at all.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

April 06, 2010

Class Demographics Explain Better MENA/Muslim Integration in USA?

The Washington Times, not normally a spurting fountain of Muslim-friendly coverage, praises the relatively successful integration of Muslim immigrants in America when compared to that of Europe. (The newsstory mostly concentrates on inter-faith dialogue, but the broader implication of better relative integration (e.g. “melting pot”) in America comes through loud and clear.) While I do enjoy a nice dose of American exceptionalism, and I do think it may apply here in some ways, let me nevertheless throw out a less nationalistic hypothesis on relative integration levels. I am too lazy and busy to find and crunch the appropriate numbers and surveys to confirm or refute it, but here it is: Could some of the relatively better Muslim/MENA integration in America be simply due to the fact that Muslim immigrants there have tended towards the educated professional and middle class, rather than being a large class of laborers as may be the case in lots of Europe?

Continue reading "Class Demographics Explain Better MENA/Muslim Integration in USA?"

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March 16, 2010

Guy Fakes Salafism in Yemen & Spills the Hummus on the Goings-On (Real and Imputed)

Not exactly a Black Like Me story, but an American a-religious white guy writer sham-converts (or reverts, if one can do that shamically) to a salafi Islam in Yemen to study the natives and non-natives there, including Americans who go over there for Islamic or Arabic education. One was the guy who shot up the Arkansas military base. Aqoulite Shaheen takes down some of the odder generalizations and assumptions of the sham-converter down below in the comments. (A modern tip of the whig to commenter Antiquated Tory for the link at Global Post.)

Continue reading "Guy Fakes Salafism in Yemen & Spills the Hummus on the Goings-On (Real and Imputed)"

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December 23, 2009

The Algerian State's Ongoing Score Settling: The Orascom Tax (or how dare you sell your assets on the free market-Whitax, you dumb Egyptian bastards)

While without having direct access to the Orascom dossier, this charming news item amuses me  Orascom Telecom suspendu à la décision du fisc algérien sur sa filiale algérienne OTA - Economie et Business - Tout sur l'Algérie (Orascom Telecom in suspended animation waiting for the tax decision on its Algerian affiliate) 

Generally speaking it seems clear that the Algerian Gov't (to the extent there is a coherent policy), has gone into a fine 1970s "soaks the foreigners" and favour political economic actors (1970s again, ah the youth of Boutef...),  Marchés publics : le gouvernement veut réduire la part des groupes étrangers - Economie et Business - Tout sur l'Algérie (Public Markets, the Government wishes to reduce the market share of foreign groups). The article charmingly notes that the Government is looking to revise the rules on tendering so as to give priority to "National Firms" (not defined but without doubt favouring state firms who can't otherwise compete...)  - and without doubt exceptions to "strategic partners" such as the Chinese firms that import most of their labour.... What's disturbing here is that the Algerian government is attacking the most effective investors in the economy, the investors who have produced real value, and remaining silent and complacent regarding the Chinese that frankly are rather less employment generative in their contracting and investments. It's sad (and counter productive) that the Algerian state remains trapped in a reactionary cycle with France,

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:17 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 21, 2009

Al Qaeda fil Maghreb and Sahelian Illusions

Maghreb Politics Review has a smart critique of the American extra-territorial seizure of supposed AQIM plotters (from Ghana) for trial in New York: US Arrests Malians in Terror Drugs “Link”

The comment is spot on relative to the strangely superficial and paranoid American approach to AQIM.

And the complaint is littered with attempts to illicit anti-American sentiments from the marks, who rarely return with anything more damning than a “God Willing” or two. Clearly the US government expects that everyone who hates America is on the same page, plotting across ideological lines, continents, and religions to hurt us. By selling drugs. To Europeans.

The counterpoint of blind nationalism here is blind paranoia, the thought that everyone must be scheming about you behind your back, that all “evil doers” are doing evil as part of a grand conspiracy to bring you down. If you wave several million dollars in front of three people from one of the poorest countries in the world, do you think when you say “You love Al-Qaeda, right?” they’ll launch into a subtle discussion of international terror? Or will they say “Oh yeah, you’re my brother cause we hate America too! And I’ll take that %50 up front in Euros.”

But this is par for the US government anti-terrorism law enforcement. The policing enforcement of US terrorism policy is as hamfisted as the military “war on terror”, except that the policing war is usually motivated by the desire for good domestic press. They tend to create their own terrorist plots, convince criminal idiots to accede to the plans invented by the US, and then arrest the patsies. The example of the recent Bronx terror plot in which the FBI informant took several not very bright young men recently released from jail, created a plot, bought gifts for them until they agreed to help, gave them the supplies, and then arrested them as “dangerous Al Qaeda terrorists.” Of course there are real terrorists out there, but it’s much easier to disrupt plots you invent yourself.

Emphasis added. Quite.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:00 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 18, 2009

Yglesias on Friedman

I cite this comment in full. It is precisely my feeling. With "friends" like Friedman one hardly needs enemies: Matthew Yglesias » Friedman’s Civil War

Friedman’s Civil War

I think I lack the words to adequately express how morally outrageous Tom Friedman’s call for a Muslim civil war is. But we can at least focus a bit on how factually inaccurate it is.

A couple of days ago, a suicide bombing in Pakistan killed 27. In July, militants hit a Pakistani hotel killing eleven. On December 8 12 were killed in Multan. That same day 100 Iraqis were killed in car bombs. Back in 2006 and 2007 there was regular fighting between Hamas and Fatah in which hundred were killed. And of course there’s ongoing violence in Iraq, in Yemen, in Sudan, and in many other Muslim countries.

Any normal person would conclude the obvious—Muslim-majority countries are suffering from an excess of civil wars most of which have some element of religious overtones. There’s quite a lot of violence and fighting. And it’s bad. People get maimed and killed. Children are turned into orphans. Hospitals and schools and productive infrastructure are destroyed. And while moral culpability for bad acts always adheres primarily to the bad actor, the fact of the matter is that the dominant theme of US foreign policy since 9/11 has been to intensify and exacerbate these conflicts, leading to vast quantities of death, destruction, and displacement.

Of course Friedman, the all knowing moustache, is not a normal person.

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November 22, 2009

Chickens, Dubai, roosting

As I am not a neutral observer, I can only pass this along with a raised eye brow FT.com  - Dubai ousts financial chief over debt troubles

While these guys are not my world - in fact I get to gleefully ignore them usually (operationally)- the news does bring a small bit of schadenfreunde
but that is mitigated by the fact that am spending much time fllying in my empire(sic) to shut down things.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:36 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 12, 2009

Onion on Ft Hood

Nice little entry on Ft. Hood massacre reaction by the indefatigable (whatever that means) Onion.

FORT HOOD, TX—Following Army psychologist Nidal Malik Hasan's shooting rampage on the Fort Hood military base . . . fellow Muslims across the nation sent him a message today, saying "thanks a fucking bunch, asshole," to the 39-year-old killer. "Hey, great, eight years of progress right down the shitter" . . . .

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 26, 2009

Merely noting generally depressing IsPal items

Really this requires not much comment, very evidently no solution is possible unless the US whacks sense into both sides, not just one:
West Bank land belongs to Jews, says Israeli army judge | World news | The Guardian

Continue reading "Merely noting generally depressing IsPal items"

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September 09, 2009

RFI: Algeria strikes joint security operations agreement with Sahel States contra Al Qaeda fil Maghreb.

Interesting report here, RFI - Front commun contre al-Qaïda au Sahel on Algerian, Mauritanian, Malian and Nigerian military experts reaching an accord or rather understanding on a "common front" against AQIM. More interesting this:

Une opération d'envergure imminente

Secret défense oblige, la date du début de ce que certains appellent déjà « une opération d’envergure » n’a pas été rendue publique. En revanche, on sait que de très gros moyens seront dégagés. Sur le terrain, à côté des troupes, on verra notamment des avions de combat, nécessaires pour gagner toute guerre dans le Sahel ... cette vaste zone sahélo-saharienne et aussi  al-Qaïda au Maghreb islamique (AQMI).

It reports an important / sizeable (regional) operation is imminent against AQIM in the Sahara / Sahel region against AQIM.

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September 07, 2009

Ibn Kafka on Libya and Morocco

An interesting little note from Ibn Kafka on the Mor-Libyan "misunderstanding" Kadhafi humilie le Maroc – quelle sera la réaction marocaine? 
(French of course)

A quick comment on one tiny item in this long post, on the paragraph(s) recapping the list of Libyan economic interests and investment in Morocco (including in W. Sahara region...):

Les paradoxes ne manquent pas, et la seule chose qui est sûre c’est que tant le Maroc et l’Algérie se tromperaient à prêter un quelconque crédit aux revirements incessants de la Libye, qui semble ces dernières années fonctionner surtout en fonction de ses intérêts économiques.

While I think Bou Kafka is right that Morocco and Algeria are foolish to put much weight on any given (emphemeral) Libyan policy or position (relative to any subject really), I don't believe one can propose that Libyan policy functions "above all in function of its economic interests." Occasionally, yes, but above all? Or perhaps, the only potential coherent line is a favouring of economic interests, although without particularly being consistent.

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September 03, 2009

The Guide & The Advancing Libyan Relations

Having successfully pissed off the US and a decent portion of Western opinion, Al Jazeera English - Africa - Angered Rabat delegates quit Libya our fine leader of the Great Libyan Random Republic decided the Maghrebine donkey cart needed a wee bit of a jolt:

A Moroccan delegation has left Libya in protest over the invitation of members of a Western Sahara separtist movement to the 40th anniversary of the Libyan revolution, Moroccan officials have said.

The delegation, led by prime minister Abbas El Fassi, left the festivities on Wednesday after realising the president of the Polisario Front (SADR) and his delegation, which seek independence for the Western Sahara, were present, the Moroccan official news agency MAP said.

A contingent of the Moroccan Royal Armed Forces (FAR), which was supposed to take part in a military parade during the festivities, also cancelled its participation and left the place.

Explanation request

"The government of HM the king expresses its strong protest against this surprising attitude, while all assurances were given previously," an official statement by the Moroccan government said.

This, I confess, is moderately amusing. Frankly I think the Moroccans are being babies, but at least they're reasonably consistent in their policies and decisions. In contrast to the Libyans, where I can say from experience, one never quite knows exactly what a Libyan partner will actually do. Show for meeting? Maybe. Be prepared to follow an agreed contract? Well, so long as the Guide has not changed his mind, or if the camels weren't too grumpy. There is something deliciously random about Libya. Predictable in its unpredictability, perhaps. I am certain that in fact the Palace in Rabat did get assurances, but come on, They were Libyan assurances! Everyone knows what Libyan assurances are worth. Pissing off in a tiff... no panache in that.

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August 20, 2009

Lewistful Thinking Reconsidered: A Conversion Narrative

However valuable Bernard Lewis may have been as a historian, his influence on recent academia/military/political thinking vis a vis MENA, has always been horribly worse than useless, but nevertheless quite significant. This account of a former academic disciple's ditching Lewis when encountering reality is worth reading if only to hear that when he encountered reality on the ground "with Bernard Lewis and Samuel Huntington as my guides, I ha[d] no way to make sense of such an encounter."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

July 31, 2009

Poor Mauritania, the sad man of the Maghreb (your coup leader elected, world leaders... shrug)

It has to hurt Bidane sensibilities that even in Maghreb circles, I think more serious attention is being given to Gabon and its succession than to Mauritania (Yes, yes for the Maghrebine readership, a slight exaggeration, but I submit only slight): Coup Leader Aziz Set to Win Mauritania’s Presidency in Election - Bloomberg.com

Former coup leader Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz is set to win Mauritania’s presidential election with 90 percent of votes counted, according to his spokesman.

The only possible point of interest for the world in general is perhaps the Al Qaeda fil Maghreb security angle, but there is re Israel some small fulminating (largely by people who have nothing particularly better to do) about Ould Abdel Aziz's non-friendly orientation vis-a-vis Israel and the probable end of the fairly brief Maure flirtation with Israel (Embassy, etc.). I would suspect even for Israel this will actually (except among professional hand wringers) be met with a bemused shrug (and probable relief from the poor bastards posted to Nouakchott).

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June 06, 2009

Obama Talking to Just Arabs/Iran/MENA?

So says the Jakarta Post. That's in Indonesia. Jakarta, that is, not the Post. Well, the Post too but there are Posts everywhere.

At least three - democracy promotion, religious freedom and women's rights - of his seven points are more relevant to a region who's [sic] governments are bastions of despotism than [to] the average Indonesian,. . . . for the majority of Indonesians - Muslim or otherwise - these three issues are fundamental ways of life already held dear. . . Not surprisingly Indonesia's most eminent Muslim thinkers were products of Western scholarship, not Al-Azhar or Arab Universities . . ..But in Cairo he put an Arabic frame on a cultural dialog which most Muslims may not relate to.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 25, 2009

Economic Crisis & Stability: Maghreb and MENA Frings, the end of the Emigration Boom

Two articles not immediately evidently related, but speaking to similar issues. That is the impact of the global financial crisis on the emigrant populations from the MENA and MENA Fringe to either wealthy regions or Europe. The article on the Spanish situation suggests there could be a significant reflux back, but Europe differs from the Gulf example - the FT arty on the Pakis - in that the immigrant communities are older, many have permanent residency that is not employment connected (Gulfie style disguised indentured servitude).

As Jobs Die, Europe’s Migrants Head Home - NYTimes.com

That changed in the decade-long expansion that began in the late 1990s. In Spain, where the growth has been the most explosive, the foreign population rose to 5.2 million last year out of a total of 45 million people from 750,000 in 1999, according to the National Statistics Institute. Ireland’s population, now 4.1 million, was also transformed, with the percentage of foreign-born residents rising to 11 percent in 2006 from 7 percent in 2002.

“In the U.S., it took generations to build up a foreign-born population of that size,” said Demetrios Papademetriou, head of the Migration Policy Institute, a research group in Washington. “These countries have done it at an unprecedented rate, but the society and institutions haven’t even begun to have a chance to catch up.”

FT.com - Hard homecoming for Pakistan’s expatriates

The downturn in the Middle East is forcing large numbers of Pakistani expatriate workers to return home, exchanging lives of comfort for unemployment in a country experiencing political turmoil, growing insecurity and a deteriorating economy.

Those coming back from the oil-rich region range from senior and mid-career staff in banks, consumer goods companies and multinationals, to blue-collar workers such as drivers, labourers and domestic servants.

The financial crisis is reversing a trend of large-scale migration from Asia to the Middle East, especially from countries such as India, the Philippines, China and Thailand.

Continue reading "Economic Crisis & Stability: Maghreb and MENA Frings, the end of the Emigration Boom"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:35 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

April 21, 2009

Maghreb, Mirages of Ungovernable Somalia on the Atlantic bis

Insofar as this gets out of the usual Middle Eastern centred blithering on, perhaps a return to the issue of Ungovernable Spaces is worth another post.

FT  - Algerian militants strike from eyries

The group seems to have since decided to restrict itself to military and security targets, although civilians often end up as collateral damage. Experts believe the change in tactics could mean the group has been weakened or that it has decided to try to spare civilians to avoid alienating the population.

“The suicide bombings tarnished them in the eyes of the people,” says Hmida Layachi, a newspaper editor and expert on Algeria’s Islamist groups. “They were losing the image that they were only fighting the rulers so they started avoiding operations in Algiers and other big cities.”

He believes there are 800 to 1,200 militants in the mountains of central and eastern Algeria in comparison with an estimated 40,000 armed insurgents during the 1990s.

AQIM also has groups in the Sahara desert in the south of the country. These have been roaming the borders with neighbouring countries, recruiting and training militants from Mauretania, Mali, Niger and Nigeria. The groups in the desert are small,but perform a crucial function by ensuring that a smuggled weapons and explosives reach their colleagues in the north.

A US military official says: “Right now if it weren’t for the logistic supply from southern Algeria and northern Mali, the group would be on its last leg.

Emphasis added.

This may or may not be true (I would be inclined to think it has some degree of truth in that the vast spaces of the Sahara are indeed hard to control and generally not actually worth controlling), but it certainly is a perception with no small degree of policy driving value.

Insofar as the Somali pirating has reminded EU & North American policy makers how very, very annoying ungoverned places can be, and how much paranoid fear of Al Qaeda drives foreign policy, I would hazard the opinion this sort of activity will have outsized impact on EU & NA engagement with the Maghreb and the Sahel.

Powered by ScribeFire.

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April 17, 2009

Maghreb & Foreign Policy - Somalia on the Atlantic Angle

An item one of my research robots found, via this some pointless political letter a linked Maghreb policy report aimed at the US Congress, which is perhaps of more interest: Why the Maghreb Matters.

In particular, an entire line of argument about Western Sahara and the Maghreb lined up on the analogy of Somalia. Whatever the analytical value of that, it certainly should have some political carry.

Continue reading "Maghreb & Foreign Policy - Somalia on the Atlantic Angle"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:04 PM | Comments (28) | TrackBack

April 13, 2009

The Wonderful Magic of War Zone Microfinance - Iraq

Following my short note in Lounsbury 'next door' a longer comment on the' FT arty "Small US loans are catalyst for Iraqi business"


First, on the item that most irritated on reading

“I have increased my earnings and improved my family’s quality of life,” says Hamza Abid Ali, a grape-grower from Balad who has quintupled his income since taking out a $2,400 (€2,200, £2,000) loan from the Al-Baydaa Centre, a US-backed microcredit scheme. “I was earning only 500,000 dinars [$432, €322, £292] from each donam [unit of land] on my vineyard,” says Mr Ali, a 33-year-old father of three.“But with my loan, I bought a water pump and some netting to go over the top of the grapes, and now I am making 4m dinars per donam.”

Emphasis added: Having read my share of Donor AgitProp, this sort of repetitiously canned donor-lang. gets under my skin. It is positively formulaic.

In particular as the one-off examples say fuck-all about eventual longer financing stability or economic impact (although of course the examples are intended for audiences that would not understand the same).

In any event, micro-credit is so bloody fashionable that it is hard to sort out real results from fashionable spin. I do confess, however, there is some impact, although I personally tend to find it to be more along the lines of "poverty maintenance" rather than the sort of investment and financing that can create long-term and real sustained wealth growth. Not that poverty maintenance does not have its place, in particular in corrupt systems where the longer run growth investment prospects are .... constrained shall we say? There poverty maintenance may be simply the best choice available.

Regardless, the background

Continue reading "The Wonderful Magic of War Zone Microfinance - Iraq"

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April 11, 2009

Is the west thwarting Arab plans for reform?

Answering the question, well.... yes if one wants to grace incoherent and often contradictory aspirations with the name reform... FT: Is the west thwarting Arab plans for reform?

The west’s morbid fear of political Islam has served to deny Arabs democracy in case they support Islamists, just as during the cold war many Latin Americans, Asians and Africans had to endure western-endorsed dictators lest they supported communists. Unless the Arab countries and the broader Middle East can find a way out of this pit of autocracy, their people – more than half of them under 25 – will be condemned to bleak lives of despair, humiliation and rage. Western support for autocracy and indulgence of corruption in this region, far from securing stability, breeds extremism and, in extremis, failed states. It will, of course, be primarily up to the citizens of these countries to claw their way out of that pit. But the least they can expect from the west is not to keep stamping on their fingers.

There is something to be said for this analysis, although I rather seriously doubt that stability can be generated by political change as such.

Continue reading "Is the west thwarting Arab plans for reform?"

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March 30, 2009

A Chechen in Every Potshot? Dubai Assassination

Stretching out our Dubai trilogy to 4, Chechen on-again off-again military leader, Sulim Yamadayev, who was apparently against the Russians before he was recently for them, was just shot to death while staying in the UAE. (There appears to be a pattern of exiled adversaries of current pro-Russian Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov dying in a veritable Fodor's list of the world's more glamorous cities.) It appears Dubai's gendarmes have made an arrest. In all the unhappy news about Dubai, let's not hope for "free fire zone" to replace a currently economically bumpy "free trade zone." Importing Russian affairs has typically hitherto had only a recreationally carnal implication.
In the end, though, this is probably more a Chechnya-Russia story here than a Gulf one.

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March 23, 2009

Sullivan & Overheated Blithering on about Dubai (Dhimmitude to ban nakedness.... really)

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan (March 23, 2009) - Dhimmitude In Dubai

Dhimmitude In Dubai

The joys of theocracy, even in an international city-state whose population is 80 percent foreign:

Reading Andrew Sullivan's blog in between tracking financial sector meltdown and scheming to keep my little empire going, I ran across this absurdly overheated characterisation of the new rules for Dubai's vast commercial waste lands.

As I wrote in an email to him, this is absurd bollocks as an over-reaction.

Continue reading "Sullivan & Overheated Blithering on about Dubai (Dhimmitude to ban nakedness.... really)"

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December 30, 2008

Gaza round, all ye clowns: Open thread

Try to keep the hyperpartisanship down in this more heat than light subject. Observations, etc. on the latest, have at it. But when in doubt, note sentence 1 here again.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:50 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

December 14, 2008

But. . . is it good for the shoes?

(Apologies to an old parochial expression.) President Bush encounters one meaning of leading a sole superpower when a journalist in Baghdad tosses his footwear at the US head of state. The arch terrorist reportedly shouted "This is the End". Jim Morrison is sadly incapable of comment.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:48 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

November 19, 2008

House Niggers: Obama, Race & MENA

First, for regular 'Aqoul readers and contributors, my apologies for the ongoing absence. Think of it as a recharge period. Frankly there has not been much interesting for me to say (that I can say, given most of the most interesting things I would comment on have been rather too 'sensitive' for me).

Second, today's Al Qaeda media event - Ayman az-Zaouahiri's fine little exposition of unconscious (or perhaps not so unconscious) Egyptian and Arab racism in describing Obama as a Abid el Beit, a house slave, using a word (Abd/Abid) that in the East has somewhat nasty overtones in dialectal (versus classical/formal) usage.

I refrained from writing anything on Obama during the election as I rather thought that there was nothing much to add. I suppose this is a moment to add that the reaction across the board to Obama's election was ecstatic, including among the Arab financial professionals I have the most contact with. I should perhaps put up some more personal observations if that seems interesting on the Lounsbury pages, but none of this is terribly surprising (and unfortunately professional obligations prevent me from sharing the best and most revealing reactions, although I should say that I was stunned to discover that the illiterate grandmother of my cousins not only following the
US elections but asking her children for updates on US elections eve and day).

However, the Zaouahiri demarche is interesting to comment on and discuss. The use of a fairly racially charged phrase I found rather interesting.

Continue reading "House Niggers: Obama, Race & MENA"

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November 04, 2008

Barack Hussein Obama MENA Open Thread

Looks like America's first Hawaiian-bred, Kenyan-derived, Indonesian-educated, 1960s-born, Muslim-middle-named President-elect is about to be. What does the success of Obama/Biden portend, if anything, for the Middle East North Africa region? Obama's foreign affairs team seems not wildly new, at least in terms of the conventional US spectrum. Some discussion has already started on the monthly open thread.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 30, 2008

Marshall Plan vs Iraq War: Costs

Another trivia about costs: Several sources indicate the war in Iraq has cost about $550 billion so far. Comparatively, the Marshall Plan which helped repel communism in Western Europe by bringing prosperity and stability there, cost $13 billion, which in today’s money is equivalent to anywhere between $100 and $750 billion. Applicability of such a plan in MENA today vs. post war Europe?

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September 21, 2008

As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA

Well, as we watch the United States nationalise its financial system in fits and starts, rather like the quasi emerging market it has become (I should note that I was amused to read comment somewhere regarding Central Banking and best practice, now that the US central bank has become the handmaiden of its finanance ministry. So much for all that independence talk they've spent the last decade pimping), a moment to look at MENA.

I suppose the Americans can say little about Iran's Gov booting a too uppity Gov of the Cen. Bank, not that one should expect particularly rational comment on Iran from the US at present, regardless.

I must say that the GCC going ahead with the monetary union preps surprised me slightly, insofar as its strikes me their interests are rather divergent at present in terms of policy.... but draft plans and actual execution are not something the Gulf is glued to by habit.

On perhaps the merely amusing side, Rush to the Gulf set to lower salaries speaks to the oversupply of bankers and doubts being expressed that the Gulf is really the boomtown(s) as presented. Dubai rather.... In the same manner, there is a nice set of items to talk about this week, if I get a chance, notably:

1. the first signs the Dubai et all Gulf Property Speculation Game is going to splot;
2. Capital flight can hit even the most well intentioned little financial black holes...even Dubai Land
3. But the oil gusher does allow for very high standards of National Poverty

Continue reading "As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:58 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 17, 2008

Yemen Goes South: Open Carnage Thread

Latest news indicates 16 or so dead in an apparent attempted raid on the U.S. Embassy to Yemen. This account, based on Yemen insider sources who work hard to bring the discussion quickly around to the expected "you need to send us more money, dammit", indicates it was a successfully stopped large-scale raid, and likely it was al-Qaeda (now there's some serious sleuthing!). Comments on the event from Aqoulites, friends, enemies, etc. . . . have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:29 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 13, 2008

MENA & World Food Crisis, A topic to consider?

The "global food crisis" (or perhaps, food commodity price shock, crisis being a bit anticipatory), should be fairly well known to all, although this FT background (index page) is very useful, and of course stories like on the wealthier MENA countries, that is of course the Gulf, buying up land elsewhere to assure food prod have prompted bleating about Neo Colonialism and related inanities.

The item here for an open thread is pondering how Aqoul might ponder..... As I am openly bored of the usual topics, what is to say, has been said in gross modo, barring new developments, while certain interesting things I can't touch as it begins to impinge on actual real interests, as it were.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 07, 2008

But with respect to the Rice visit to the Maghreb

Although nothing remarkable, she did repeat the usual platitudes and as usual the terrorism optic was the main driver.. Certanly the Algerians will be annoyed that she mentioned the Western Sahara and a resolution on Rabat home territory, and the Moroccans sure to go on and on and on and on and on about that. On the other hand, the children are already playing about who got to see who, in this instance the Algerians making a big deal Rice did not see the Jet Skier en Chef. I wonder if the Algerian writer really believes the Jet Skier in Chief avoided rice over Saharan issues.... I am not sure which bunch are a bigger bunch of whankers.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:23 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

September 01, 2008

Let us praise Libyan craftiness and all the lessons learned from Italy

I confess no small degree of admiration for the Desert Hookah Smoker, my early childhood guide, Si Mouamar Gaddafi. this little bit is an act of piracy worthy of .... Rome I think

It's delicious, extorting equity:

In a tent outside Benghazi on Saturday, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's centre-right prime minister, returned a headless statue of Venus carted away by Italians decades ago and signed a friendship pact with Muammer Gaddafi, the Libyan leader.

The agreement, in which Italy pledges to pay $5bn (€3.4bn, £2.75bn) over 25 years in reparations through various projects - including a highway across Libya from Egypt to Tunisia - follows a decade of difficult negotiations under a succession of Italian governments.

Of course any pledge over 25 years by an Italian government should be discounted to present value using a discount rate appropriate to Italian finances, perhaps Medieval ones. Still, a win win - B Boy and the Guide get to bask in the PR of Large Numbers, and the Guide gets to pocket a decent amount of current exchange.

Almost as intriguing is is The Guide's "Extol[ing] virtues of capitalist reforms" as the FT arty puts it.
Well not quite:

Continue reading "Let us praise Libyan craftiness and all the lessons learned from Italy"

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August 24, 2008

MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?

Moving back MENA-ward, I add a rant inspired by long-time discussions here and elsewhere regarding investment in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. My amateur self keeps reading about Gulf or other money chasing things like real estate or hub port facilities, or digging out more of that Texas tea. Now, I hope I don't use too technical economic terms here, but here goes the rant: shouldn't the bulk of this fund dough, including money from superrich nations, be going towards activities where, you know, MENA regular folks will, like, MAKE NEW STUFF and then SELL THAT NEWLY-MADE STUFF TO OTHER PEOPLE for, um, HARD MONEY. That may sound a bit hi-falutin grad-school airy-fairy idealistic, development economics-y, but it needs to be said.

Continue reading "MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

August 21, 2008

Georgia on his mind: Pres Assad looks to new Russian arms deal

Why, I am getting a bit of nostalgia: Syria looks for Russian arms deal.

Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president, arrived on a two-day visit to Russia on Wednesday seeking new weapons and greater military co-operation and hoping to capitalise on the rising tensions between Moscow and the west. ... Syria is eager to revive a deal to import Russian Iskander ballistic missiles, which have better targeting systems than its existing arsenal of Scud missiles. Talks over the missiles were abandoned two years ago. Mr Assad said Russia’s conflict with Georgia, in which Moscow claims Georgia used Israeli-supplied equipment and military training, had underlined the need for Russia and Syria to bolster their military co-operation.

I had missed the Russian claims re Israeli equip to Georgia, never mind training. Well, that does add a bit of MENA colour and spice, eh? (See also Waning Maximalism, Siren Syria)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:12 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 19, 2008

Waning Maximalism: Siren Syria

It is always difficult to evaluate the reality of Gulf investments - they are the vapour ware of the investment world, often announced, much less often delivered. However, this Gulf Times arty on Gulfie investment in Syria is nevertheless interesting taken in hand with the recent trips by US bankers, hat in hand, to the Gulf.

While not explicitly connected, there has been major damage to American reputation - and Western banks reputations I would add - in this last year and one can not but think Lebanese Presidents visiting Syria is a bit of realism that but four years ago would have been off the table.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 16, 2008

Georgia-MENA open thread

(Apologies for genuinely accidental labored allusion.) Anyway, Russia has been doing a bit of marching through Georgia, reviving the Cold War-era 1980s for a bit (assuming the decade had ever left). Readers, writers, commenters, members, computer-owners and -operators are invited to share their wisdom on the latest Caucasian occasion, but most particularly in ways it may relate to the Middle East North Africa regions. Iran yawns; Israel lays low; Turks get dissed; Georgia removes its legions from Mesopotamia. And Vladimir Putin has been confirmed as Tsar of all the Russias, every blasted one of them, even those little Russias that fall under the couch cushions.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:10 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

August 11, 2008

The (Un)Surprising Failure of the Iraqi Private Sector

An utterly unsurprising report from The New York Times on the failure of the Iraqi private sector to take off after many preictions and the US pissing away billions on quixotic efforts in this regard.

The irony of these events is, as in the case of the Iraqi state, the Americans will leave behind not a vibrant liberal democracy showing fine examples of the benefits of free market economics. Instead they will leave behind a quasi democracy dominated by parties tending to vilayet-i-fiqh thinking and a massive state run sector.

And that is all that can be reasonably expected insofar as until the bombs stop and there is real security (not "security" as trumpeted by the Right Bolsheviks in the US of A, but security that makes real private capital feel secure).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 07, 2008

Nouakchott in the Dark: Mauretania Coup

Semi-Aqoulite alle on his blog provides background and details on Mauretania going coup coup. In comments by alle elsewhere on this site, he notes that "there goes the Arab world's most interesting experiment in democracy-by-coup."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 02, 2008

Arabic Translation Peeve, vol 200: Is this the Best the Army can do?

Check this out. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Mr. 9/11, provided in Arabic answers to questions in the trial of bin-Laden's driver. Here is what our competent Arabic translators of our front-line fighting forces in the war on terror, as edited by our leading media, in a trial under a global microscope, provide as one answer of his:

“As the American Army (we) have drivers, cooks, crewmen and legal personal,” Mohammed wrote. . . "We also, are human beings ... we have interests in life. ...You can not understand terrorism and Al-Qaida from 9/11 operation.”

Rant below.

Continue reading "Arabic Translation Peeve, vol 200: Is this the Best the Army can do?"

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July 27, 2008

Turkey: The Islamic Democrat Option & The Court

The Financial Times has an interesting commentary on Turkey and the current court battle against the AKP: Objection overruled: Turkish political Islam fights for survival in court. Of particular note is the decline of the European option and what may be the subsequent damage to political liberalism. It is hard to say what is precisely right here, but my instinct is that the Turkish secular establishment is shooting its own foot off. The gains by the AKP are as much due to simple basic competence as Islamic appeal, and from the point of a view as a model cited now and again in MENA (in MENA, by Islamist parties), this struggle, unlike much Turkish political reference, has echoes.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:50 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

July 26, 2008

Anglos & Arabic: the bizzaro world of the MEMRIstas

Thanks to The Skeptic, or maybe to curse him as this I missed blissfully, of this special piece of stupidity that the Washington Post published earlier, in which a certain student Pollack whinges on about supposed biases in his Arabic text. A terribly tedious and queer little whinge - why it got published escapes me. Although this text came out I think some years after me own Arabic studies (done in the strange dark years of the Orange), I have encountered the book he refers to, and I have to say one has to be a particularly sensitive Likoudiste to find it objectionable. Boring, perhaps, but objectionable?

Although parenthetically, and perhaps of more interest, I wonder how I fit into our Skeptic's Egyptological scheme when I lived there:

Continue reading "Anglos & Arabic: the bizzaro world of the MEMRIstas"

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July 13, 2008

Ya Rayah...Ch7al nedmou lebad l-ghafline qblek: Southern Med & Socio Economics

With proper reference to Taha's Ya Rayah* which seems more than appropriate given the subject matter, and prompted by The Economist’s recent profile on investment in the Mediterranean as well as a series of articles on the Maghreb and southern Med region (let me call this MedSud from now on, as MEDA sounds idiotic), including a previously noted Lounsbury article from NY Times piece on Algerian Youth, an interesting FT series on labour markets, education and youth in MENA (and in particular on entrepreneurship, or rather not being a lazy bureaucrat), in addition to the rather cretinous article from Abu Dhabi on Maghreb investment that Hogan already cited.

Update: also in similar vein see Comments on Khaleej Times whinging on Islamic Finance

Update II - 15 Jul: quick clarification on my remarks and in particular my MedSud usage. While the underlying article and research by ANIMA covers a wider range - the MEDA zone as they define it including Israel and Turkey, my remarks do not. I personally consider both too different to look at analytically in grouping with the Maghreb or the Arab Machreq. Obviously discussable, but the remarks below should be understood as excluding entirely Turkey and Israel.

Continue reading "Ya Rayah...Ch7al nedmou lebad l-ghafline qblek: Southern Med & Socio Economics"

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July 11, 2008

The USS Liberty: It's back and . . . topically relevant!

The USS Liberty, the American intelligence ship attacked by Israeli naval and air forces in June 1967, is back in the news somewhat, and relevant to the news of the day. This assumes that this story has a true basis. Apparently the subject was raised in a meeting between US and Israeli officials. (For more Aqoul discussion on USS Liberty, go here, wherein I confess my conversion to the more-likely-a-screwup presumption.) Anyway: "According to. . . Haaretz, . . . the Liberty attack was raised in talks regarding Iran, and U.S. operations in the Middle East. . . [It] was agreed . . . that the United States and Israel would want to avoid any sort of 'mistaken confrontation' such as that which occurred when Israeli forces attacked the USS Liberty."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:29 AM | Comments (35) | TrackBack

July 06, 2008

Bring Us Your Poor, Your Tired, Etc., Unless They're Iraqi Refugees

The U.S. is currently patting itself on the back for admitting a whopping 6,480 Iraqi refugees to the U.S. since the start of U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, designed in response to the special needs of Iraqi refugees. While the admission of 4,872 Iraqi refugees to the U.S. this fiscal year is certainly an improvement over last year's total of 1,608, it's only a fraction of the 27,940 specially vetted referrals from UNHCR, let alone of the more than 4 million internally and externally displaced Iraqis.

Continue reading "Bring Us Your Poor, Your Tired, Etc., Unless They're Iraqi Refugees"

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June 27, 2008

Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble

This Washington Post story nurtures the question: are the recent bubble-like oil price spikes driven by speculative runs on oil or are they driven by a fundamental growth in demand? The supply side, aka Saudi Arabia, claims the first choice and the demand side, aka America and industrialized states, claims the second. My semi-educated wild hunch is that the supply siders' 'explanation (high speculation) is closer to the truth. (UPDATE: Commenter Klaus notes a more recent Krugman column on the same subject arguing that economic fundamentals are primarily driving the price increase.)

Continue reading "Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble"

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June 11, 2008

Al-Sharq, babe, has such teeth, dear: Lebanese Big Shots Interviewed

(Apologies to Bobby Darrin and the Three-Penny Opera.) On what seems like the ultimate Summer Vacation for MENA nerds, a student provides extremely useful and interesting account of meetings with the pezzonovantes of the Lebanon. Via Col. Pat Lang, via commenter duaneg. Below, some choice excerpts....

Continue reading " Al-Sharq, babe, has such teeth, dear: Lebanese Big Shots Interviewed"

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June 07, 2008

News you can't choose: Items of interest

From our newsroom, discussion of a news clip (and I do mean clip) on FGM support in Egypt.

I think the foreign intelligence hinted at by inside "sources" in latest stories is the other I-word (see other stories from a few years back), and not Iran, as is being assumed.

Humankind's vital war on disliked headgear and neckwear continues as Ataturkville's high court tells girls to take it off, take it all off, since a girl or woman has a right to the integrity of her body (see FGM), except when putting a cloth on her head.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

For those of you wishing headaches, Pipes series on MENA

At the National Review, I haven't the gumption to actually go further myself. However the National Review's summary would seem to indicate he's losing the veneer on his pure bigotry to descend into batty land:

Daniel Pipes talks the odds. The chance that immigrant Muslims and indigenous Europeans find a way to live in harmony? Five percent, says Pipes. The chance that Europe becomes Eurabian, part of the Muslim world? Forty-seven-and-a-half percent. The chance that Europeans reassert control over the continent? Forty-seven-and-a-half percent, once more — and Pipes says it won’t be pretty.

Eurabia...well, I suppose if one gets that special combination of innumeracy and bigotry together, one can seriously believe that Europe is going to somehow become "Eurabia"...

[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]

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April 23, 2008

Another Good Conspiracy Theory Down the Drain

Al Qaeda says an Israeli conspiracy didn't do 9/11. And, it adds, Iran started the Israel conspiracy rumor. Is that itself a conspiracy rumor?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:43 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

Open Thread on Carter, Hamas, and Stuff

Belaboring, distatefully, the last general subject area, we turn to Jimmy Carter's statement that Hamas was ready to accept Israel at some point in some way. Hamas itself seems to disagree. To me, it appears to be a conflict of spin. Hamas will not, for ideological reasons, recognize Israel but they appear to be willing to accept a Palestinian state on 1967 borders, and say they would accept a popular referendum to honor a truce to go no further. With spin, that can be seen as de facto acceptance of the Palestinian Authority's current or future recognition of Israel. Sounds alot like China and Taiwan, actually. (Which situation can erupt at any time, but probably won't as long as mutual prosperity keeps rearing its ugly head.) Anyway, unlike the previous thread where I had a strong opinion and not much time or interest to engage, as I was asserting something obvious, here I am inactive because I have no strong opinion or time, so it is just an open thread for those interested.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:15 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

April 02, 2008

A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It

It being a little quiet around here what with all of us busy and/or lazy, I thought I'd spice it up by going against the usual, and quite healthy, distaste of most Aqoul principals towards wading into the Israel-Palestine morass. Especially as there are anniversaries and such coming up. Anyway, today's lesson comes from a column of Michael Gerson (not a fan, myself, usually) in the Washington Post. It tells of a speech at the Holocaust Museum by an old gentleman, a Mr. Traum, who was once a very young gentleman in Nazified Austria. He recalls various events especially around Kristallnacht in 1938-39. Below the break is a revealing nugget.

Continue reading "A Brief Note on Zionism, Israel and the Nub of It"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:37 AM | Comments (74) | TrackBack

March 26, 2008

Fear & Food: MENA Inflation (Open Commentary)

I have (as our site authors can verify) a draft on the issues of dating a month - an indictment of my writing time - on this issue (generally), but sadly this has to wait for more free time. At the same time this is a hot and frankly useful topic. Thus, while I haven't done up my proper commentary, an open note on this issue I think useful.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:52 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

March 09, 2008

Favouring Religous Minorities in Emigration - MENA, US, EU & Iran

An issue without an easy answer, with respect to "what is right" as such, raised by a Washington Post arty on US favouring religious minorities in emigration from Iran which to follow the article, has drained the communities.

The essential message from the article, in grosso modo, most Xian and Zoroastrians, etc seeking to leave have largely economic motivations. Hardly news, saw everywhere really. However, the community leaders see their people being drained away (and of semi-amusing note, to a land of immorality... US of A where gays can marry [ahem, well no, but...], horrors to the priest quoted). One wonders what would happen to Iranian Sunni communities given the same chances. What is right here? Rather like the priest, one has to say, well, given a chance...

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 02, 2008

Explosions and MENA - never mind the political bollocks

A rather overlooked article, if I am not mistaken, and certainly complementary to my last post from The New York Times on basic cost of living inflation in MENA.

While it is easy to be critical of some simplistic details in the article, never mind background economics, the reality is clear and this anecdotal article conveys it. Basic cost of living in both oil and non-oil states is escalating at rapid rates, agiven global commodity prices in food and basic goods (and, yes, energy), and that is hitting an emerging lower and proper middle class hard.

Worse, this is coming off of barely realised gains in the past 5 years (for the 'new' professional or semi-professional middle or quasi middle classes).

I don't care much for the whanking on about party political manoeuvres in any given country - but if readers want to worry, bloody well worry less about momentary ebb and flow of political liberalisation (damned bollocks if you ask me, cart before the bloody horse). Rather worry about basic cost of living inflation hitting an emerging class of people that could, with a bit of time, actually support and drive economic and secondarily political reform knocking back the rent seeking elites. This is, to be blunt, fundamentally dangerous. Micro-cosmically, a domestic driven development like this in Egypt in the 80s helped driven a minority of Egyptian 'up coming almost middle classes' into radicalism. Flat line poverty and stagnation is less dangerous, ceterius paribus, than almost comfortable people being pushed suddently into stagnation and declinging fortunes. Sadly the American Administration seems incapable of intelligently and pro-actively managing its own (self generated) economic problems, let alone global risks.

Leave aside whanking on about the Awakenings, and other Iraq rubbish - dig into the background on cost of living pressures in MENA - not optimism driving.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:33 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 24, 2008

Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism

Worthy of reflexion on larger tensions between economic and political reform in MENA, Bahrain seems to be going through an awkward spot in terms of political and economic reform although it is Bush ibn Bush's Khaliji wunderkind for democratisation. Nothing surprising in this, other than perhaps the qualified support of the opposition (and even that is not terribly astounding as such, given the way publicly expressed opposition generally occurs in Monarchies).

Continue reading "Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 03, 2008

Dollars, Gulf Politics & MENA Economies, tip, tiptoeing...

Without extended commentary, I draw attention to The Financial Times report that Qatar is considering breaking the dollar peg, following Kuwait and certainly if it does so putting a nail in the coffin of the original vision of the unified Gulf currency zone.

The report, which if realized, would make Qatar the 2nd after Kuwait to break the strict dollar peg, highlights a feedback between the current American Administration's profligate fiscal policy -itself tied to a frankly delusional foreign policy that has by evident incompetence as well as imperial overreaching damaged credibility generally [never mind the exact politics]- and regional politics and policy. Make no mistake, the dollar peg has long been as much a politic as an economic statement.

Of course taking such a step in an environment like the present is economically rational - above all if one believes that one is entering a period of long term dollar weakness or instability, although a more flexible exchange regime is generically usually a better thing regardless of the specific dollar issues.

Continue reading "Dollars, Gulf Politics & MENA Economies, tip, tiptoeing..."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:51 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

January 25, 2008

The Non-Story: Arab Money, NY Banks...

A little bit back (here and here), I incorrectly predicted the Sov Funds - (state investment funds, specifically re "Arab" (Gulf) money) - would become a political issue. I was wrong. With a small consolation that my feelings on the credit market has some (rather small to be sure) prescience.

While I am consumed with financial business, it does strike me that the "Arab" billions (and yes there are fundamental technical differences, but that really hardly matters in the political realms) are at once 'welcome' only in extremis - I am sure American Senators got briefings on the meaning of a Citi insolvency, e.g.) and also an illustration of the difference between headline control and... well merely plausibly deniable influence. It would appear that foreigners, above all non-European foreigners are only welcome in the US of A if they give up their ownership rights.

All quite well, but fits poorly with the American jihad (and I do regard this as a jihad salih) for investor rights and standards. Worth a conversation. And of course, yes, I skipped over details which I know well but require another few paras or better writing on my part.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:37 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 28, 2007

Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work

Finally figuring out what anyone here could have told them years ago, US forces in Iraq have earned at least a B-plus in Empire-Building 101 -- not that that's a good thing, but it can salve a sore wound for an indefinite period. The principle is to use local power structures as your surrogates, basically by bribing them. This USA Today story details it well. (Thanks to a Klaus call, we have a link for the original stick-figure anti-insurgent plan offered by a later-killed US soldier here.)

Tribal sheiks . . . have seats on most of the city councils and the provincial council. . . . Many tribes run construction and trucking businesses and benefit from U.S. and Iraqi government reconstruction projects. The contracts with U.S. forces allow sheiks to hand out jobs, and thus maintain power.

Continue reading "Sheikhs' Sure Booty: Your Empire At Work"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 04:39 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

December 27, 2007

Sindhs of the father: Benazir Bhutto dead thread (open)

Benazir Bhutto, ex-Pakistani prime minister, is now an ex-person. Have at the whole set of issues in this open thread, o dear readers. Others of the Aqoul team may post more detailed entries on this most unpleasant passing of the daughter of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. (BTW, I don't know who those people are who say 'why do Muslims never go out in the streets venting their anger when al-Qaeda or other extremists* do a terrorist act?') Well, clearly, they sometimes do.

Continue reading "Sindhs of the father: Benazir Bhutto dead thread (open)"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:22 PM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

December 24, 2007

Holiday Fuzziness, Algeria, Al Qaeda and Iraq

As fuzzily cheery such news as interfaith warm and fuzzy declarations (which have their utility although as I consider them rather normal in my experience, I find them boring), of rather more interest perhaps is an uncharacteristically interesting commentary from NYT via the FT on one of the Algerian suicide bombers from last months bloody nonsense in Algiers which is interesting reading paired with FT's Quent Peel's commentary on the "socialist timewarp" that is Algeria, and the Kremlinesque opacity of its political sphere.

Continue reading "Holiday Fuzziness, Algeria, Al Qaeda and Iraq"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:09 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 16, 2007

Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure

Not often do I get to be more right than Jim Henley, but here I claim it though I can't document my earlier growing sense that The Surge would turn out better than we cynics first expected. (The last time he was wrong, which goes back years, so was I, as when he predicted that Ariel Sharon would not go through with the Gaza withdrawal.) But now he is surprised that violence has not rebounded in Iraq since The Surge in a way he has predicted. I am far less surprised however and, although I started as a Surge Cynic as shown here, I have come to feel after more information that there has been a good chance of some sustained suppression of the violence. More on why, below.

Continue reading "Competent Adults in Charge? The Iraq Surge's Non-Failure"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:58 AM | Comments (28) | TrackBack

December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

Continue reading "NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 24, 2007

Not in my name

This short entry to denounce the recent verdict againt a victim of rape in Saudi Arabia. Ibn Kafka also has an excellent post about this (in French).

Saudi Arabia claims that it applies Islamic law. In doing so, this medieval country is tarnishing - again - my identity as an Arab and as a Muslim.

If you are like me, sick and tired of this Tartuffesque regime, let it be known how much you want it to change. Not to the equally retarded bigots, but to their influential friends.

Posted by Shaheen at 06:09 PM | Comments (30) | TrackBack

November 10, 2007

Infidel Review: Packaged Phobias

Yes, in in breaking news, the long-awaited mysterious review of Hirsi Magan/Ali has been sighted.

It is perhaps not off to share as well, The Financial Times very able critical review of a related genre of Islamophobic literature, that of the statistically illiterate "Eurabia" genre to which in many ways Hirsi Magan/Ali belongs.

Continue reading "Infidel Review: Packaged Phobias"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:45 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

November 03, 2007

Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington

I have to borrow from the discussion on the previous thread the quotation below. It's from a book review of at-best mixed value but by someone with the knowledge to make the statement. Tell me its assertion is false. Please, God, please......

Continue reading "Strategery, Indeed: Lewis and Huntington"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

October 24, 2007

MENA Reform: Reform is Dead, Long Live Reform

In part provoked by stunningly irritating conference call with idiots (aka known as 'funders") and in part by getting this piece of silliness emailed to me by some of the same participants, the recent naming of a government in Morocco (for which you can see some useful French commentary chez Ibn Kafka, whose 2nd home at Aqoul sadly awaits the intervention of a mystery writer coming out with a stunning review of some Somali chick...) is a moment to reflect on reform, via this flawed although not entirely useless article in FT (if one closes one's eyes to the idiocy of quoting the USFP). I will add that yes it is clear that England is clearly stringing together his series of quotables, poor bastid is a bit at sea.

First, in preface, let me say that I have long held the opinion that political reform can not really take place except when driven by economic change. At the same time, my dear Ben Ali in Tunisia shows that economic progress without political reform in our MENA region, well can go down a blind alley to be polite.

Continue reading "MENA Reform: Reform is Dead, Long Live Reform"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:20 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

September 26, 2007

Abu Aardvark on The Surge & The Sunni Leadership

A personal favorite political magazine's blog presents a personal favorite political institute's video of an Aqoul favorite blogger Marc Lynch, aka Abu Aardvark, speaking at a conference at the CATO Institute on THE SURGE. The professorial Father of Aardvarks opines about the recent Iraq Sunni insurgent-US military cooperation, but bases his insights on Arabic language media and internet communications of Sunni community leaders. The conclusions he arrives at are basically that the Sunni leaders are stating to their very anti-US constituency that cooperation with the USA is merely tactical and the result of insurgent victories which forced the US to assist them in certain common aims of fighting al-Qaeda and fighting some Shiite militias. They view the government and al-Sadr as "Iranian" and they eventually want the entire US occupation out. In addition, the conditions are such that further sectarian fragmentation is underway and no matter how long the US stays, it appears the conditions will remain ripe for sectarian war. Informed readers, have at it.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:48 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 13, 2007

Iran War On the Way: More Evidence

It appears that I may have been right to call attention to those saying a war on Iran is being rolled out by the Administration. An informed and expert source in DC affirmed it to me as well a few days back. And it looks like the usual suspect sources are now marketing it. (Love the part where we can mysteriously tell that the Germans really want us to attack even as they back away from sanctions against Iran. Saying "no" when they really mean "yes", those Teutonic teases!) Michael Ledeen appears to be the one whose job is to incite the converted; he who says that al-Qaeda and Iran are interchangeable terms and at one point called Dubai, an "Iranian colony". Man, all them dang camel jockeys are the same and interchangeable, and that thinking is how one manufactures a war. Anyway, Aqoulites and Aqoulite wannabes with Iran-specific knowledge are needed to weigh in, now and in the future.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:19 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack

September 09, 2007

Quick Roundup of News on Roundups

{Sarcasm} Here's a headline you'd never expect to see. I'm shocked, shocked. . . . {/sarcasm} (Iraq)

Now here's a headline you'd really never expect to see. (Israel)

Here's an interesting roundup about al-Qaeda leader roundups. For a variety of reasons, this Abu al-Yazid guy seems the most interesting and dangerous , specifically as he reminds me in terms of his alleged internal likeability, technical profession (accountancy/fundraising), energy, and tactical sense of a rather successful violent insurgent of the past. Insurgencies can use good accountants and fundraisers.

And, just for yucks, bad news for anyone planning to have online virtual sex with Osama bin-Laden.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 06:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 07, 2007

Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day

Osama bin-Laden on Sept. 7 2007* -- "19 young men were able, by the grace of [God], the Most High, to change the direction of [America's] compass."

Osama bin-Laden on, um, Sept 7, 2007 -- "burning living beings is forbidden by our religion, even if they be small like the ant, so what of men?"

In addition to terrorist, criminal, fanatic, and other filth-and-foul words, we can now add "what a fatuous dick".

Continue reading "Bin-Laden Versus Bin-Laden, same day"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

September 03, 2007

Dar Fur: Not So Simple as Arabs attacking "Blacks"

As longer-term readers of Aqoul know, I have rather long been beating away at a point re Dar Fur: that the nice little story packaged up for college activists and Islamo / Arabophobes re Dar Fur fundamentally mis-characterises tribal resource war as genocide and that the real story is desertification and excessive population pressure on an environment that can't support the combination of population lifestyles and numbers. And that the simplistic narrative of Black Africans versus Arabs (imagined to be people looking rather like Saudis, rather than the said Arab elders in the photo... who are rather obviously Arabised locals of a most "Black" genotype....)

The New York Times in a generally decent article, Chaos in Darfur on Rise as Arabs Fight With Arab makes me point, if belatedly. Of course, it contains certain idiocies, such as referring to Arab tribes in the plural but the Fur as a single tribe - they are of course a linguistic group about as much a single tribe as "the Arabs." Which is to say, they are tribes, plural. The article is very much worth a read and promotion. As I am an optimist by nature, perhaps it can help correct some of the delirious whanking on about Arab genocide on the Blacks, and maybe refocus on the real tragedy of an ecological and economic catastrophe and a spiral of destruction as clan and tribal warfare becomes bloodbaths via guns (not that history of the Maori should be forgotten in reminding one and all this is hardly a new phenomena).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:50 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 02, 2007

Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?

The informed blogosphere and newsosphere are abuzz with rumors* that a US war, or a sustained attack (i.e.war), on Iran is being put out for aggressive marketing by Administration innards this week. Events will prove this true or false. Regardless of the rightness or wrongness of such a thing, if it is being planned, I do wonder if the questions and considerations below have been addressed.

Continue reading "Tehran: A Sore US Wrecks? Iran War Looming?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

August 15, 2007

MENA, Credit Crunches, Sovereign Funds & Fear Mongering: Expanded Thought

Expanding on an earlier Lounsbury post or three, that is the preceding on Lounsbury on Credit Crashes & MENA as well as a brief note on what I expect to be a source of fear mongering (although I may be wrong), a few thoughts on the credit melt-down and MENA. Brief and semi-stale.

Continue reading "MENA, Credit Crunches, Sovereign Funds & Fear Mongering: Expanded Thought"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:13 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 13, 2007

A Cheney is only as strong as the weakest link

This American Enterprise Institute resident's expert comments, from circa 1994, are making the rounds, as well they should. Perhaps no one in the current Administration had encountered these thoughts, during the buildup to the Iraq invasion.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:29 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 12, 2007

Blacklisting little tiny radical groups

The first thing that came to mind in reading that that the Americans have "blacklisted" a little radical group in a Leb refugee camp was "oh my, I guess they won't be able to launder any assets through buying discounted mortgage assets.... Well, actually that's not true, my first thought was "why do they bother?"

I have no doubt it took more expenditure on the part of the Americans to go through the process, than this little marginal group has ever seen. Freezes their assets.... for a group of flea-like importance relative to US interests. In the Americans fixation in a Comintern / Soviet type threat, they descend into comical acts; wasteful as well.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 10, 2007

Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples

The recent elections in Lebanon (or Leb Land as I like to style it) produced an interesting result although not one of such great surprise, except to perhaps the Tottens and Friedmans of the world, that is, the blow-back of incompetence and utterly delusional policy based on wishful thinking and unresolved contradiction on the part of the Great Power.

The NY Times article is a solid enough and illustrative of some issues long discussed here at Aqoul, notably the severe contradiction between American (but not only American, Western in general) "promotion" of democracy, and inattention to tied-in policies; never mind inability to take an appropriately rational "who's the best long-term bet for our fundamental interests" analytical view of potential allies in region - including the Islamists.

[It has been pointed out in comments that my comments on the article are undermined by the dodginess of the article premise - in particular the reality of the American connexion impact. As I am not watching Leb Land politics with great caution or interest, I'll simply issue this mea culpa for being suckered into ranting on too little basis. This being noted there is much other commentary remaining]

Continue reading "Influence, the Market for: MENA & Delusions - Lebanese Examples"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:37 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

June 12, 2007

Desperately Seeking Sudan: Key War on Terror Ally

This Baltimore Sun story is not too much of a surprise for those who connect the dots and are somewhat informed. "Sudan has secretly worked with the CIA to spy on the insurgency in Iraq . . . . The relationship underscores the complex realities of the post-Sept. 11 world, in which the United States has relied heavily on intelligence and military cooperation from countries, including Sudan and Uzbekistan, that are considered pariah states for their records on human rights. "

Now does anyone know of any Hariri connection?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:42 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 05, 2007

USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly.

Among the Mideast Six-Day War's 40th anniversary issues will be the June 8, 1967 attack by Israeli military forces on the USS Liberty, an American naval intelligence ship. In international waters near Egypt's Sinai peninsula, the vessel was torpedoed by Israeli Navy vessels, following repeated strafings/napalmings by Israeli Air Force planes. A special remembrance was held at the Navy Memorial (7th and Penn) in DC on June 8. Despite my own newer conclusion that the incident was indeed a result of Israeli errors, rather than an assault with foreknowledge of the ship's American nationality, I do think the incident should receive long overdue U.S. public investigation and hearings .

Continue reading "USS Liberty: Error? Probably. Reinvestigate? Certainly."

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:43 AM | Comments (27) | TrackBack

June 02, 2007

How Do You Say "Chutzpah" in Arabic?

The Department of Homeland Security, in a nod to the U.S.' long tradition of aiding those huddled masses who yearn to breathe free (or at least yearn to refrain from having their heads blown off), has announced that a whopping total of 60 Iraqis will shortly be admitted to the U.S. as refugees - but only if they pass the required security checks, of course.

Continue reading "How Do You Say "Chutzpah" in Arabic?"

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May 23, 2007

Keep your Sunni side up: Lebanon conspiracy theory #637

Seymour Hersh propounds this conspiracy theory of sorts regarding the rise of Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon. I don't buy it offhand, but there's plausibility in a Saudi role in promoting Sunni anti-Shiite counterweights, with US winks and nods. Any takers?

What I was writing about was sort of a private agreement that was made between the White House, we're talking about Richard -- Dick -- Cheney and Elliott Abrams, one of the key aides in the White House, with Bandar. And the idea was to get support, covert support from the Saudis, to support various hard-line jihadists, Sunni groups, particularly in Lebanon, who would be seen in case of an actual confrontation with Hezbollah -- the Shia group in the southern Lebanon -- would be seen as an asset, as simple as that....There is a supreme overwhelming fear of Hezbollah and we do not want Hezbollah to play an active role in the government in Lebanon and that's been our policy, basically....

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:23 PM | Comments (42) | TrackBack

May 10, 2007

On the failure of Liberals in the Arab World

I’ll use Liberal in both its classic and modern Anglo-Saxon meaning here. The previous thread’s comments gave me some neuron crunching about this issue. Socialism, from the 50s to the 80s, and Islamism afterwards, are perhaps the two ideologies which mostly shaped Arab thought during the second half of the 20th century.

The socio-economic variables are clearly an indicator on how radical one can be in support of those political lines. But it’s interesting to note that those ideologies enjoy support even among people who otherwise aren’t poor, are educated, and tend to be socially quite loose.

I’ll focus on one reason that has a huge weight in determining political orientations: national causes.

Continue reading "On the failure of Liberals in the Arab World"

Posted by Shaheen at 05:22 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

May 07, 2007

Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union

Sarkozy’s proposal of a Mediterranean Union have been discussed a lot by French media, but with little substance. The fact is, there aren’t many details in the proposal anyway. From his party’s website:

Je favoriserai le développement des pays pauvres, en cessant d’aider les gouvernements corrompus, en mettant en place une Union méditerranéenne avec les pays du Sud

I will favor the development of poor countries, by stopping aid to corrupt governments, by creating a Mediterranean Union with southern countries

Since most countries of the South happen to be Arab and corrupt regimes, I wonder how his pro-colonial, pro-Israeli, “anti-corrupt” attitude is going to help him cooperate in building any kind of union with them.

Continue reading "Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union"

Posted by Shaheen at 02:54 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

April 28, 2007

France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy

As per The Lounsbury's suggestion, and following Ibn Kafka's extensive coverage of French elections, here are my two cents about them, Beurs, France and the MENA region and related economic bits.

Sunday's [May 6th] second round will most probably bring Sarkozy to French presidency. I have to say I'm very mixed up about this election. This round's vote is a matter of either gambling on Sarkozy, and risking what happened with Arab Americans, who happen to have voted George Bush in 2000, or choosing an economically destructive but marginally more risk averse community-wise choice with Segolene.

Continue reading "France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy"

Posted by Shaheen at 04:21 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

April 14, 2007

Maghreb Madness: Reflexions on the Return of Al Qaeda

Shamefully late, as I began working on this (as some of the articles will indicate) in February. Pity I got busy, as it would have been useful to be ahead of the curve. But better late than never. (NDLR: this was written before the bombings in Casablanca 14 April, and has been updated and modified) Today and earlier in the week were grim days.

First, some general reflexions.

The developments in the Maghreb, Morocco and Algeria, are of course personally disturbing as my brief is North Africa, but beyond this personal business obsession this is a sign of reconstituted risk, and that the simmering frustration of the slums has not gone away. As our friend Ibn Kafka wrote on his blog several days ago with respect to Casablanca earlier this week, this is not merely electoral propaganda to check the Islamist parties. As he says, "The spectre of 16 May 2003 has returned among us." His post is well worth reading, and I will return to a key point later.

[nb: fixed link issue on WP article below]

Continue reading "Maghreb Madness: Reflexions on the Return of Al Qaeda"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:41 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

April 06, 2007

My Inner Neocon & Iran's Shatt Across the Bow

No, I don't want us or Britain to go to war with Iran. Heck, I'm a "cut and runner" on Iraq from before it happened. But am I the only one not of neoconnish-hawkish outlook who is a little perturbed that uniformed professional British sailors and Marines, engaged in lawful patrolling and probable legitimate intelligencing, roll over and "confess"? (Side note to antiwar folks: the coalition presence is now lawful, regardless of other moral or prudential non-rectitude.) Civilians, I understand. Me, I'll give away your social security number when faced with a nail clipper. But what happened to stiff upper lip; name, rank and serial number? If they were tortured or threatened I won't judge, but at least I'd want to know. UPDATE: Rolling over does make a little more sense after these revelations of mock executions, etc..

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:49 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

April 05, 2007

Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town

Youssef Boutros Ghali, Egypt's Minister of Finance, will be giving his take -- perhaps a bad choice of words -- on the economy of Nile-dom right here in Potomac River City, aka Washington D.C., on Thursday, April 12 (reserve at the CATO Institute by 11 April). Full details are below the break, and here, the most important of which is "Cato Forums and luncheons are free of charge." D.C area Aqoulites are required to go, if they are below 32 and in any kind of University. Meanwhile, informed comments from all on the subject, including from our own regional finance hyperinformed but Masrophobic resident Id, are welcome.

Continue reading "Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:16 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

March 29, 2007

The Madness of King George & The Terror of the Fearful Jacobin Republic

An anectdotal reflexion on recent MENA anti-American developments prompted by a somewhat amusing discussion with an American financial sector consulting friend of mine about his recent work in the Middle East and the "shocking" levels of anti-American sentiment as compared to only 3 or 4 years ago. This fellow, of a conservative East Coast background nevertheless has had enough of in region experience prior to the Right Bolshevik Coup to have seen the precipitious decline in American image in region (and elsewhere of course).

What I found interesting was his recitation of leading and very connected American educated financial sector (most of whom I know more or less well) figures whose views had shifted from pro-American to anti, reflecting various levels of frustration. What was most peculiar in this conversation was that I cannot recall a similarly structured one - that is veering off from business to American politics.

(apologies on the title, it is late, I have much work still to do, and much rhum drunk)
link fixed 30 March

Continue reading "The Madness of King George & The Terror of the Fearful Jacobin Republic"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 25, 2007

Nerds Only: Oral Histories of US Diplos Now Online

Quick note: The US Library of Congress has unleased upon unsuspecting humanity a large set of full text interviews with key US diplomats of the 20th century. Some MENA material is here, and elsewhere on the somewhat hard-to-navigate site. Nerds, start your engines.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 14, 2007

Lost in Translation: U.S. Policy Toward Iraqi Translators and Interpreters

With an estimated 3.8 million Iraqis currently living as refugees, it’s not surprising that the U.S. might want to help by taking in a few hapless souls until Iraq stabilizes. So I wasn’t at all shocked to see that Washington has offered to provide refugee visa slots for its customary drop in the bucket. That’s right - 7,000 lucky Iraqis, or 0.18% of those who have fled during the current conflict alone, will be granted the opportunity to start over in the U.S. in the form of asylum.

Continue reading "Lost in Translation: U.S. Policy Toward Iraqi Translators and Interpreters"

Posted by evaluna at 11:03 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

January 26, 2007

"From Iraqi society to societies in Iraq" - Some further thoughts

I just published this article on Niqash, but since the guidelines of that project (it is financed by various European foreign offices & U.N. agencies) mandated a very balanced tone and - rightly so - doesn't allow for us editors to engage in conjecture and speculation (however informed & sound) ... I thought I should use Aqoul to (1) point to the article and (2) expand upon some themes.

(The article in question is also my last work for Niqash as the project has ended and there is no telling if there will be any follow-up. I am thus also looking around for "something new", as they say, so do feel free to contact me if you want to hire me.)

Update: Added a few links for further reading (Twice)

Continue reading ""From Iraqi society to societies in Iraq" - Some further thoughts"

Posted by MSK at 01:24 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

January 16, 2007

Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?

A new project, wikileaks.org is out of the bag, ahead of schedule. News leaked of the new site's proposal to unite international cybernerd expertise with political dissidence to create a place where persons can safely post leaked government documents with minimal fear of direct detection. The technical feasability and security value I know not, but here is where they provide basic info, with link to a sample of a leaked document allegedly from the Somali Islamic Courts movement. For MENA-watchers, or more probably US-MENA watchers, it may be a site to keenly watch.

Continue reading "Wikileaks.org leak: Site for the Whistleblower?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 05:55 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 12, 2007

Friday Caption Contest

From Asharq Al-Awsat: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice discusses U. S. policy in Iraq while testifying on Capitol Hill in Washington, Jan. 11, 2007 before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Hmm, what do you think our dear Condi is saying?

[via tomscud]

Posted by eerie at 10:25 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

January 09, 2007

Wishful Thinking, Grasping at Straws, and Other Habits of Highly Effective Pundits

I know that taking Andrew Sullivan apart whenever he embarasses himself talking about Islam is old hat on this blog, but his recent post about the possible benefits of the Iraqi civil war for the war on terror deserves special mention. You see, by declaring victory and then leaving Iraqis to slaughter each other, we counter al-Qaeda's "West versus Islam" narrative with an "Islam versus Islam" narrative.

Continue reading "Wishful Thinking, Grasping at Straws, and Other Habits of Highly Effective Pundits"

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December 29, 2006

Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Any Real Meaning in "Moderate" Elections?

A somewhat Arab News-ish article from FT on the Moroccan PM - who's on shaky ground according to the movers and shakers of the Maghreb biz community - comments that the Islamists can't really win in the upcoming elections, given they're structured against them.

I continue to be frustrated with this short-sightedness.

Returning to the question posed in the title, is there any real meaning in "moderate" elections? Am I the only observer that feels this sort of game has the tendency to bring long term discredit on the concept of "secularism"? (well, actually my opinion is that it already has.)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:30 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 01, 2006

Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy

The slow motion disaster that is Iraq has come to bore me, now that I have written off personal interests there (although as an aside, now one doesn't cease to get offers to take part in US reconstruction - sorry boys, too late. In '03 I would have done it. Now you're 3 years down the road to utter catastrophe, not a bloody chance).

However, as part of the larger wreckage of US policy, that remains sadly a major but largely negative driver in the region (not due to overall intentions, but realism of how and on what schedule said intentions can be implemented - which is to say due to the utterly magical fairy-dust approach they insist on taking) one has to be interested in Iraq and US MENA policy which surrounds it and is in part driven by the fiasco.

Continue reading "Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

How bad it is in the Middle East

Ignatius in the Washington Post: "That's how bad it is right now in the Middle East -- when the Palestinian morass is regarded as a bright spot."

A very worthy quote. And accurate.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 22, 2006

MENA Moving Forward: Policy Shifts

This is something of an open thread, but motivated by my sensation that the there may be (on the margin) some meaningful reorientation of American policy, which for better or worse (often both) is a key external driver in the region, I thought we might have some thoughts on subjects worth discussing regarding future MENA developments. I personally have the penchant for the economic, but understand it is not of general interest.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

November 11, 2006

Global Gazing: Regional Reactions to US Election

Following up on my own note on what I have seen in region with respect to the American elections, let me share this FT analysis which is more or less in accord: Mideast relief over Rumsfeld’s demise, by William Wallis in Cairo.

Continue reading "Global Gazing: Regional Reactions to US Election"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:13 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 28, 2006

On Iraq & Pre-War Predictions: What Do You Mean "We", Paleface?

Apologies to the old Lone Ranger joke. Clive Davis writes this lament of the disaster unfolding in Iraq. "It wasn't just the Bush team that made mistakes, of course. Didn't we all underestimate the challenge?" (emphasis added).

Ummm, no. That sentence may imply a whole new set of meanings for the words "we" and "all", hitherto unsuspected. Even my own neglected blog in early 2003 quoted this far-from-rare Jason Vest article from the (annoyingly) lefty mag The Nation that got it right. That article (and even little old me) were among so many others -- from every walk of life, punditry, as well as civilian and military industry, large and small -- who loudly forsaw everything, more or less. Not to mention our very own Aqoul curmudgeon. To the time machine!

Continue reading "On Iraq & Pre-War Predictions: What Do You Mean "We", Paleface?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:03 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack

October 22, 2006

Spinning in different languages or proper adjusting of message to audience?

Following up on some small debates on MEMRI mendacity and accusations of doubletalk between English and Arabic on the part of Arabophone intellectuals, I found the following article from Reuters interesting, amusing and also thought-provoking: Diplomat acknowledges U.S. "arrogance" in Iraq.

The essence of the story, the head of US public diplomacy Near East bureau, Alberto Fernandez, apparently (I have been too busy to watch TV myself) acknowledged the US has bollixed up Iraq due to arrogance and stupidity. The US government has forthwith claimed (re the English) it is a misquote.

A moment to reflect on the problems of structuring messages and communicating between languages, based on the longer text of the same Reuters story from the NY Times Reuters feed.

[Update: Unsurprisingly this is showing signs of setting off, what was it called in comments, a stupid storm: I point to Bou Aardvark's note on the issue. I wonder if the stupid storm on the part of pornstarlet wannabes like Malkin will actually deprive the US of one its few capable interlocutors on the Arab Sats, in some cretinous recreation of Soviet style purges for not following party lines]

Continue reading "Spinning in different languages or proper adjusting of message to audience?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:23 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

September 10, 2006

They'll Estonia When You Try to Trade Some Goods: Transition Model?

Estonia, the Model? (Title apologies to Bob Dylan.) It seems everybody must get Estonia'd. In this excerpt of a behind-the-firewall op-ed by John Tierney in the New York Times, we learn of the transtion from an economically totalitarian society to a free market one in the ex-Soviet state of Estonia. Assuming -- and tragically some you don't, I know -- that a free market-based state and economy is a generally good thing, does Estonia provide an example for MENA (Mideast North Africa) states, and if so which ones? Alas, our main economics contributor in the region is currently bailing out sinking enterprises so the expert answer may be harder to come by. Meanwhile, I suspect Estonia fails as a model.

Continue reading "They'll Estonia When You Try to Trade Some Goods: Transition Model?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:14 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

August 27, 2006

Losing and Winning: Constituency Service

Roula Khalaf, who I may add is simply one of the must-read journos on Middle East has a fine profile in FT on Hezbullah's reconstruction efforts

I know from work I am engaged in right now that this will send France, US and others into a tizzy.

But there is no beating them. Quick roll out of Western institutional aid is simply not going to be competitive, because the networks are not there.

Where the damage is, the institutions are Hezbullah.

Continue reading "Losing and Winning: Constituency Service"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:59 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

August 24, 2006

Giddiness: MENA Private Sector & New America Foundation

In reading the first paragraphs of a Washington Post Op Ed by a fellow at the New America Foundation, entitled The Real 'New Middle East' I thought I was going to be pleased, sadly though the author took real observations and mixed them in with simple-minded swallowing of corporate and governmental PR spin to produce absurd tripe typical of the wide-eyed neophyte or the paid propagandist.

A pity as the author's main thesis in a less over-done and gullible form has merit.
_{Cross posted from The Lounsbury}

Continue reading "Giddiness: MENA Private Sector & New America Foundation"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 16, 2006

Rubenesque Conflict Seeks Single, Professional, Peacekeeping Force

Judging by these John Bolton (US Representative to UN) comments and the other background activities, it appears that no nation or force or combination of them is stepping up to volunteer to be the blessed armed peacemakers between Israel and Lebanon. Where are the Gurkhas when you need 'em? Or the French foreign legion, especially as the French were so active in putting this cease-fire plan together? Amazing, isn't it, that Israel and Lebanon are such great traditional tourist destinations, but for some reason the border between them just doesn't get the eager traffic you'd expect, even with the free (for spectators) fireworks displays.

Continue reading "Rubenesque Conflict Seeks Single, Professional, Peacekeeping Force"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:11 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

August 11, 2006

Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)

The rising chorus of commentators horrified at the American-Israeli desire to play a self-indulgent Thelma & Louise drive-off-the-cliff policy in MENA continues to grow.

Ranging from a late echo to my own "Guns of August" allusions, in the Washington Post yesterday (although the lunatic Thelma & Louise approach is reaffirmed by Gingrich and Krauthammer today), to Roula Khalaf's analysis in the Financial Times last week, to intelligent Israeli analysts realising that this 1982 business is not going to get any better, whatever the utterly magical thinking going on in Bush and Olmert governmental quarters, to The New York Times (in a generally decent if somewhat superficial review) noting the disastrous impact this useless war is having on American policy interests.

Continue reading "Lebanon & Regional Blowback (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

July 31, 2006

Gross Incompetence & Contempt: Blindness on Lebanon

Although the macabre dance that is the war in Lebanon continues a depressingly predictable shuffle, the utter dilettentism that is the current American administration's diplomatic efforts - although efforts almost grants their clumsy, amateurish statements and reactive myopia too much dignity - continue to be breath taking. This AM, after the fine little Qana Bis blowing up of little girls (unsportingly exceeding certain understandings), I find myself greeted by the news that the amazingly incompetent Rice - I do officially take back everything positive I said with respect to her - suddenly finding that the time is right for a ceasefire. I am not sure that circumstances more detrimental to the image of the Americans in the region could have been fabricated by an enemy (except perhaps a 'transformation' statement). Of course, to be fair, at least she had that modicum of sense to stop the "permanent conditions" as a "pre-condition" idiocy.

Continue reading "Gross Incompetence & Contempt: Blindness on Lebanon"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:36 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

July 26, 2006

Vital reading

Sadly not yet available for review in Aqoul's books section, but certainly sorely needed by many international policymakers:

Continue reading "Vital reading"

Posted by secretdubai at 12:51 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

July 24, 2006

Skillful Asymmetry & Spin (Israel-Lebanon Land War)

In the twilight realm that is the competing spin on the Israeli-Leb crisis, it is hard even to know where to begin, when our own yellow satire barely outdoes actual American commentary justifying civilian massacres.

However, I would suggest that the Superpower's bizarro-world approach to the crisis, infected as it is with utterly magical thinking as it reportedly is shopping for a 'coalition of the willing' [my term my dears] to "disarm" Hizbullah, and uniquely confirm its own allies as Quislings... [link restored]

The Financial Times, with fine understatement reports this evening that Rice ideas for peace disappoint in Beirut, although that may be about as much news as Israeli and Arab leaders don't see eye to eye.

Continue reading "Skillful Asymmetry & Spin (Israel-Lebanon Land War)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:36 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

July 21, 2006

Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)

Although less impressive than the scenes you can catch of the Arab Sats, this Al Jazeerah arty (Arabic) Continued Criticisms of Israeli Hostilities Against Lebanon and Palestine / استمرار التنديد بالعدوان الإسرائيلي على لبنان وفلسطين conveys in pictures (and of course text) the Islamic world reaction after the Friday prayers. The demos shown on the telly in Amman, Cairo, and Damascus were particularly large relative to the security presence. The article also notes the khutub (sermons) in particular in Baghdad; oddly perhaps the Israelis will provide Iraqis an inter-ethnic rally point.

Continue reading "Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

July 19, 2006

America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary

I sometimes wonder what it is about American media that leads to quite such utterly delusional commentary on the Middle East. Following up on my initial gut reaction, some more thoughts on the utterly surreal American whanking. (see also Lounsbury)

Drawing on The Times commentary blog, Times News Desk: World comment: how does it end?:

Continue reading "America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:00 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

July 02, 2006

Jihadist Prudence: Gitmo Tribunal Decision

For those interested, a text of the Hamdan v. Rumsfeld decision can be found here. That's the very recent U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down the military tribunals President Bush established by Executive Order for prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The decision is a bit convoluted given that the Court had to first torture the interpretation of a very specific law which prohibited courts from hearing these habeas corpus petitions made by Gitmo prisoners. (The Court reasons that the prohibition doesn't apply to those petitions, such as Hamdan's, which had already been filed when that anti-habeas law was passed in 2005.) While I favor the overall result of the case, I do share dissenting Justice Thomas' pique at the majority's sleight of hand jurisprudence and their evasion of the application of plain language and common sense on that particular issue.

Continue reading "Jihadist Prudence: Gitmo Tribunal Decision"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:38 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

May 13, 2006

Ahmadinejad's 1953 Reference: The Skeleton in the Regime's Closet Reaching Out?

As a followup to discussion of Mr. Ahmadinejad's love letter to George Bush, I want to note a specific reference he made in the letter. That reference is to the 1953 coup by the Iranian military that restored the Shah of Iran. That coup ousted Mohammed Mossadegh, a nationalist figure who had forced the Shah to retreat to exile, and who had led the nationalization of British oil-company operations in Iran. It is no secret that the US CIA played a heavy part in the events of the 1953 coup.

Continue reading "Ahmadinejad's 1953 Reference: The Skeleton in the Regime's Closet Reaching Out?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:06 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

May 11, 2006

First As Tragedy, Then As Farsi: Ahmadinejad's Letter

For those interested, Iranian President Ahmadinejad's letter to Bush in English is here at CNN (via Jim Henley). Thanks to contributor Baleen, we find the official and somewhat better quality translation here.

Continue reading "First As Tragedy, Then As Farsi: Ahmadinejad's Letter"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 11:51 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

April 29, 2006

Dubai Buy II: Revenge of the UAE

According to the New York Times:

President Bush is expected on Friday to announce his approval of a deal under which a Dubai-owned company would take control of nine plants in the United States that manufacture parts for American military vehicles and aircraft, say two administration officials familiar with the terms of the deal. . . .

Continue reading "Dubai Buy II: Revenge of the UAE"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 23, 2006

Morocco & Media bis: Activist Pimping & Sober Reality (Updated)

Our dear friend, Bou Ardvrk once again (as a media specialist would) has another comment on the Moroccan media that has managed to annoy me somewhat, although it raises an important problem

The annoyance stems from his using as center piece some ill-written exagerated activist squeeling from "Open Democracy" - which appears to be some naive bit of internet activist pseudo-journalism site for those who believe in democracy. I suppose I also believe in democracy, although I do not particularly believe in internet activism or democracy activists.

However, the underlying issue, the Moroccan government's apparent new tactic in using court cases to slap down media that have gotten "out of line" and the highly peculiar circumstances of the case in question, Le Journal Hebdomidaire, a weekly of relatively recent vintage with quite a lot of spunk - although also with somewhat questionable journalistic standards. But then one could write that about any media organ in Morocco come to think of it.

Continue reading "Morocco & Media bis: Activist Pimping & Sober Reality (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:51 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

March 05, 2006

Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)

Sadly my work is distracting me from the fun of the ongoing Bigotted Know Nothing Nativist Ignoramus Mob Madness surrounding DPW's takeover of UK's P&O and the incidental acquisition of the operating leases for port operations at six major US ports (although in the UK and globally sanity has prevailed*), I wanted to augment my dear friend and colleague, Secret Dubai's post on Israeli support for Dubai and DPW with specific reference to the Israeli shipping line Zim's statement of support; I should say it comes as no surprise to anyone with experience in the region that some Israelis would step forward on this, even in a politically delicate situation - not so oddly it is the moderates on all sides trying to do business that know each other.

Continue reading "Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:57 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 28, 2006

When Ideologies Collide: DPW, Israel & Everything

With the Israel card played on the DPW ports purchase, internally conflicting ideologies, loyalties, prejudices, and knee-jerks appear to be flying about, Left and Right, like a hockey/rugby rumble.

Aqoul's observations on the practical meaningless of current Right-Left distinctions in this controversy are confirmed here (thanks to a tip from Jim Henley).

[Note: as seen in comments, the issue boils down to a report from the Jerusalem Post on Dubai's maintaining a boycott on importation of Israeli goods, which by extension, Dubai ports participates in for Dubai. One may question the substantive connexion, but politically this is a death knell in re US domestic politics]

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 10:50 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

February 19, 2006

Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger

The emerging US controversy over Dubai Port World (an atrocious name I may add, even DP World is bad - hereafter at 'Aqoul, DPW) buying out historic UK port operator P&O - which incidentally includes a portfolio of US assets.

That unfortunate fact - a portfolio of US assets, which is to say management interests in six US ports on the United States Eastern Sea Board - has occasioned the exposure of a vein of ugly sentiment and public commentary, as well as typical for the "blogosphere" blind and ill-informed reaction. Another confirmation that Right and Left blog authors’ sneering with respect to the real media is badly misplaced.

This post – which will be updated and moved forward as I develop it – is intended to correct the poorly-informed xenophobic knee-jerking on Left and Right.

(I note in the interim that the fine American habit of turning everything into a lawsuit has emerged already as Maimi "Firm Sues to Block Foreign Port Takeover" per the WP, which pimps the security fallacy.)

Continue reading "Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:00 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack

February 13, 2006

More Reasons Why Torture is a Bad Idea

Because junior military personnel can't be trusted to have the common sense to know when they are going to kill people, that's why:

The two Afghans were found dead within days of each other, hanging by their shackled wrists in isolation cells at the prison in Bagram, north of Kabul. An Army investigation showed they were treated harshly by interrogators, deprived of sleep for days, and struck so often in the legs by guards that a coroner compared the injuries to being run over by a bus...

But really, we can't blame the poor kids, can we, because how could they be expected to know what rules to follow?

Continue reading "More Reasons Why Torture is a Bad Idea"

Posted by evaluna at 06:55 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 12, 2006

Dim, Dim, Dim: Maghreb not an al Qaeda kinda place because...

Leaving aside the main thrust of the arty in question from The Financial Times (that being the US planning or considering to sell arms to the nasty little clique of generals in Algeria), the American Specialist in Idiotic Statements & Failed Occupations, had this to say about the Maghreb and al Qaeda:

Before arriving in Tunisia on Saturday, Mr Rumsfeld said he did not believe the Maghreb was a likely place for al-Qaeda to take root because extremism was not tolerated by the governments of Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria.

Bloody idiot. What a complete bloody idiot. Why has this completely deluded fucking incompetent egocentric bumbler not been axed? Or in the alternative, how long can the American policy establishment continue its deluded focus on States alone?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:54 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Morocco: Democracy, Facile Journo Idiocy on Moderation and Islamism

As a general matter, English language materials on the Maghreb almost never fail to annoy me. Here The Washington Post manages to do so: Feud With King Tests Freedoms In Morocco.

Having long had ... how to put it? Contact? Yes, contact with the group in question (long story, goes back a long ways), Adl wal Ihsane and been familiar with the Yassines, I have rather mixed feelings about the conflict described in the article. On one hand, being generally in favour of bringing Islamist groups into politics, I am generally in favour of engagement with Adl wa Ihsane. On the other hand, this particular dispute and the disingenous spin the Yassines are using rather annoys - well more the gullible lapping up of the same in certain anglophone quarters rather annoys.

Continue reading "Morocco: Democracy, Facile Journo Idiocy on Moderation and Islamism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:41 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 02, 2006

Cartoons, Manufactured Outrage, Tolerance & Dissent

Well, reading the papers sadly the entire overblown cartoons of the Prophet controversy continues. Our dear Meph pointed me to this amibiguous but largely unfortunate French editor fired over cartoons news, and interestingly via trackbacks, I also ran across this article and a comment which I think needs blasting .

Now the, some further thoughts on this entire fiasco:

Continue reading "Cartoons, Manufactured Outrage, Tolerance & Dissent"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 30, 2006

Complete utter nonsense: "Offended by Cartoons" Muslim Pinheads Boycott the Danes

It is hard to know how to categorise this idiocy, however this arty at least gives some fuel Protests Grow Over Danish Cartoon of Muhammad, sadly for those who like to portray Muslims as fanatic cretins, as in fact there are a fine bunch of fanatic cretins to make the case.

The essential start point is a cretinous Danish paper ran months and months ago a rather idiotic competition to portray the Prophet Mohammed, and as I recall, a goodly percentage of entries were offensive nasty little Arab / Istlamic stereotypes. Frankly one got the sense of an undercurrent of bigotry in the entries.

But whatever, cartoons in a stupid Danish paper. Nothing to get one's underwear in a real not over. Danish Muslims protested and that should have been the end of it. But no, the International Ever Seeking Offence to Blow Up Issues for Exploitation Islamist Cretins Faction has gotten hold of this.

Continue reading "Complete utter nonsense: "Offended by Cartoons" Muslim Pinheads Boycott the Danes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:46 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

January 29, 2006

Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences

The election of Hamas has set off quite a lot of overdone hand wringing with respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and with respect to 'democracy promotion.'

I am going to ignore the I-P conflict as an endless toothache, although frankly in the medium term this is probably a boon as Hamas seems likely to be a more effective player than the corrupt and broken PLO/Fatah.

Rather, a few words on democracy promotion in the Middle East and North Africa.

The first words are, I am no fan of it, and frankly largely do not believe in it on the terms that it is pimped to the general public, etc. However, the handwringing post-Hamas victory requires some comment.

Continue reading "Democracy, Liberalism, Consequences"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:03 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

January 26, 2006

Palestine: Hamas

The results appear to give Hamas a strong electoral position, which is not surprising if one had one's ears to the ground - despite the Bush Administration apparently sad and Johnny come lately intervention on the side of the sick old man, Fatah.

Here is the rub made clear, really democratic elections are going to produce these kinds of results. If one is going to pimp simple minded democracy, than one has to ive with them. I have met enough Hamas people to suspect that they can in fact be dealt with. It's better optics in the end to try and fail, the exclude which merely feeds into Hamas cycle of popularity.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:53 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

January 25, 2006

Maghreb & Islamic Liberalism: Superficialities & Hope for a Liberalising State, Islamic Feminism, etc

Returning to commentary, although forewarning this is post chemo and may lack a certain clarity:

Via Daniel Drezner's post on That's some interesting Islam in Morocco, I found this article from Der Spiegel on Morocco - one of my favourite countries in the MENA region - discussing Mohammed VI's efforts to modernise the socio-political culture:

The Quiet Revolution: Morocco's King Aims To Build a Modern Islamic Democracy
by Helene Zuber.

Compare, by the way, to this article from almost six years ago:

New Hope, Old Frustrations - Morocco: the point of change
by the ever Left Ramonet.

An interesting, but rather flawed article I would say.

Continue reading "Maghreb & Islamic Liberalism: Superficialities & Hope for a Liberalising State, Islamic Feminism, etc"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

January 20, 2006

Media, Business & Problems

Our Dear Father of Aardvarks has an interesting posty on al Jazeerah's market position and some recent claims that al Arabiyah is beating it out that has interest from both commercial and socio-political points of view.

Continue reading "Media, Business & Problems"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 19, 2006

US Diplo Service: Out into the Field She Says

This is very good news for the US diplo service, and long over-due. Will make my diplo friends very happy.

The Washington Post arty reports:

Diplomats Will Be Shifted to Hot Spots
Rice Also Plans to Elevate USAID Chief
By Glenn Kessler and Bradley Graham
Thursday, January 19, 2006

My first comment is that all the US diplos ...no, sorry all the US diplos that I have respected over the years... have bitterly complained about the current US diplo service organisation and disincentives to "get out" and as well master languages (yes, learn languages to get little brownie points on the fiscal scale, but not master, and why with the bizarro rotation system that puts rare Arabic speakers in Beijing for years at a time, and vice versa).

Those few US diplos who have defended the system rather struck me as bureaucrats, although usually far more straight up than the delightfully corrupt ones I liked, like my EU colleagues

Continue reading "US Diplo Service: Out into the Field She Says"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:40 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

January 15, 2006

Pakistan, Missiles and Total Cost

Protests Spread Across Pakistan
Islamic Groups Stoke Anti-American Sentiment; Senators Defend Fatal Missile Strike

This article gives brief cause for reflexion on the utility of missile strikes on villages that may (or perhaps may not) be harbouring al-Qaeda leadership.

I am not ipso facto against such strikes, but the frequency of US blasting away from the air with apparently somewhat (understandably) weak intelligence and the cost of (likely) errors (or missed shots, an hour or two may make the difference) makes me think that the penchant for the low-risk (to personnel) options (force protection, penny wise, but perhaps pound foolish) is the enduring error on the part of the US.

Total cost of the policy. Is all being properly priced in? I don't know. However, not to be simple, there is the alternate total cost of doing nothing. Not easy questions, but the somewhat easy brush off of US senators I think reflects the problem of self-regard and inattention to total cost.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:47 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

January 11, 2006

On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,

Via our dear friend, Father of Aardvarks 'a comment on Gerecht on Iraqi payola', found 'Hearts and Minds' in Iraq: As History Shows, Ideas Matter More Than Who Pays to Promote Them leads me to make a comment on influence and media from a business standpoint.

Continue reading "On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,"

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December 13, 2005

Joseph Nye the PR Guy: "Soft Power" in Iraq

Just saw Joseph Nye speak on the subject of “Can Democracy Defeat Terrorism?”, a talk which ended up being mostly about Iraq and what U.S. policy should be in that neck of the woods. "Soft power" is his term for what in other fields of endeavor is sometimes called “hearts and minds,” or maybe “public relations”- the idea that convincing people of the merit of your position by diplomatic means is more effective than doing so by force, and at a lower cost.

Continue reading "Joseph Nye the PR Guy: "Soft Power" in Iraq"

Posted by evaluna at 11:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

December 03, 2005

Torture, U.S. Foreign Policy, and International Law: The Truth Can Sting

I had the opportunity this week to hear John Yoo, the author of the infamous U.S. Justice Department torture memo speak in justification of physical mistreatment of alleged Al-Qaeda operatives because they are ostensibly not protected by the Geneva Conventions, debate a prominent human rights law expert on the legality of this practice under U.S. and international law. (Disclosure: I’ve known Doug Cassel professionally for years, and in a prior life was privileged to provide interpretation services for his expert testimony in political asylum cases.) This memo has been used by the Bush administration to justify interrogation methods which any normal person with morals would agree constitute mistreatment of alleged Al-Qaeda detainees in Afghanistan and Guantánamo.

Continue reading "Torture, U.S. Foreign Policy, and International Law: The Truth Can Sting"

Posted by evaluna at 10:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

November 20, 2005

Surfacing on Iraq

Having begun this weekend with some fine work on valuation documents for Gulf area firms, a little bit of coughing up blood, and the tedious work of creating a matrix to figure out what the bloody hell I have among pile of bloody Arabic financial reporting, I thought I might take a moment to comment on the chatter about Iraq and the US policy optoins.

Frankly, most of the discussion rather strikes me as surreal navel gazing delusionally disconnected from the evident reality in Iraq.

As I have been indicating for a rather long time, Iraq long ago (say early 2004) entered into a 'Lebanese logic' which rather made the creeping civil war situation in Iraq, that is clear for anyone with eye to see, inevitable.

Now, the simple minded I suppose expect(ed) this to explode all at once. It has not and will not. Rather, as in Lebanon, it will creep forward in fits and starts until it is undeniably there for even the most deluded. The self segregation, the inter-community killings and hardening of lines despite decades of friendship, etc., that is already ongoing and there is frankly nothing substantial in terms of Iraqi dynamics counter-weighing this. Iraqi dynamics are all that count, not Americans running around claiming idiotic body counts, not hand waving pseudo-political excercises masquerading as democracy to please the gullible Westerners who think such things have meaning in such circumstances, not anything but Iraqi social dynamics.

There is, in short, nothing that is substantively running against the power dynamic of the hard men with guns. Nothing, period, regardless of the idiotic self-deluded happy talk I have seen now for three fucking years running. Good news from Iraq, indeed. Even in the depths of any civil war one can find "good news" - it's intelligent analysis that gets one understanding.

Continue reading "Surfacing on Iraq"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:37 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

November 08, 2005

US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]

The item I have refered to in the past is now public:
A Ludicrously Bad Idea

The key item here is this:

"The U.S. wants to see some success before further expansion. It envisions attracting board members with the clout -- names being bandied about include Jack Welch and Robert Rubin -- to get Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak on the phone to complain, for example, that he needs to free up pharmaceutical prices if a private drug industry is to flourish in Egypt."

Fucking stupid ass concept. Getting your fund involved in these kind of politics is a disastrous way to invest.

UPDATE: Arty text below with extended commentary.

Continue reading "US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

October 28, 2005

Ahmadinejad and Israel

What's going on in Iran? First the country's president calls for Israel to be "wiped off the map." Naturally, this doesn't go down well at all internationally, with the Israelis going so far as to call for Iran's expulsion from the UN. So Iran's Moscow embassy issues a statement saying the president didn't mean to "speak up in such sharp terms," and we are reminded that such statements are made all the time during rallies but don't really mean anything.

So the new president made a stupid diplomatic error, not realizing his new position makes his words carry more weight. And after his country's ambassadors are summoned to various European capitals to explain their government's actions, all this will die down, right? So then why is Iran stupidly upping the ante by ordering its diplomats in Western countries to launch protests there against Europe's attitudes towards 'Zionist crimes'? My own take is that Iran's foreign policy, more or less directionless since Ahmadinejad came to power a few months ago, is starting to go down the tubes.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:18 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

October 17, 2005

Dar Fur (aka Darfur): Round and round and round again

I see there is another “Dar Fur” attention thing going on, wherein bloggers who a year ago or two had no bloody clue as to where the bloody hell the place is or who the Fur are (of course they still don’t – for all that the history of the Sultanate of Fur is actually rather intriguing) pontificate about the issue.

At the risk of being the perennial naysayer – well actually why not? Naysayers are useful, we drag the deluded back to reality. – let me again comment on Dar Fur (or if you must, Darfur).

Continue reading "Dar Fur (aka Darfur): Round and round and round again"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:58 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

October 13, 2005

Two Jews, Three Opinions, Part II: Day of Atonement Thoughts on Jewish Culture, Subculture, and Prejudice

[warning: much anecdotal musing ahead]

So here I am on this fine Yom Kippur, engaging in a bit of anthropological fieldwork among my extended family, a bunch of relatively liberal, politically aware Reform-ish American Jews in South Florida. In some ways we are very typical of our subculture(s), and in some ways we are not, but to be sure, there is a wide spectrum of opinion around here, and most of it is expressed passionately and frequently. My family is warm, loud, always interrupting each other, generous, and all-around decent people, and make frequent attempts to be openminded. Mom is even loving the biracial grandchild, in spite of her various complaints over the years that my sister (who basically hasn't dated a white guy since high school) is a reverse racist.

However, if I have to have one more discussion about how all Muslims are not out to exterminate the Jews, I might do something very un-Yom-Kippur-like, and really have something to atone for. I try to cut my aunt some slack - after all, she has worked for the past 20+ years at a grade school affiliated with a Conservative synagogue, and she gets the pro-Israel, anti-Muslim propaganda during most of her waking hours. But sheesh, she was just mentioning that she'd been thinking of donating to Pakistan earthquake relief, until her good friend and co-worker (a rabidly Zionist Israeli; one wonders, indeed, why she lives in the U.S.) mentioned maybe she shouldn't do that, because, you know, we wouldn't want to support people who want to wipe out the Jews.

Continue reading "Two Jews, Three Opinions, Part II: Day of Atonement Thoughts on Jewish Culture, Subculture, and Prejudice"

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October 09, 2005

On Arabic, Translation, Training and Spying

Being conflicted as to whether this is a purely personal rant or something of wider interest, but on rereading thinking I may have accidentally said something of wider interest, let me refer 'Aqoul readers to Lounsbury - 'Aqoul and a small post on issues related to traning in Arabic, translation, and spying.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The Maghreb-African Immigration Problem

It appears the issue which I first started noting roughly two weeks ago (see esp. Illegal Immigration - Borders & Madness: Mass Attempts at the Spanish-Moroccan border) has hit the big time with live European and al-Jazeerah coverage of explusions today, Sunday and round-ups of what is said to be thousands of 'illegal' migrants.

It appears, per al-Jazeerah reporting, that Algeria has closed its borders amidst reports that Moroccan authorities have been dumping expelled non-citizens from Mellila and Ceuta across the border.

Continue reading "The Maghreb-African Immigration Problem"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 06, 2005

For Dar Fur Day (Updated) [realised it's actually Darfur Fast (sic)]

In honor of this ridiculous, pretentious and foolish event scheduled for 6 October (a day of fasting during Ramadan, how... navel gazing North American whinging activist), I would like to draw your attention to this old post of mine on the issue of Dar Fur: Darfur - On Racism, On Ignorance, On Laziness and just plain stupidity (and Arab responses) as well as this from 'Aqoul, Critiquing the Arab World.

UPDATE:
As an added bonus and in part prompted by my annoyance with the annoying little whinging idiot of an ill-informed stereotypical student 'activist' git, I thought I would provide a new link to a Dutch analysis of the Dar Fur issue entitled: Darfur: The logic behind the conflict, from the Dutch journal RISQ: Review of International Social Questions.

Rather makes the same points I have in regards to the miss framing of this (and I would add the nasty substition of anti-black sub-African prejudice for equally unenlightened anti-"Arab" prejudice).

Continue reading "For Dar Fur Day (Updated) [realised it's actually Darfur Fast (sic)]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:25 PM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

Arab Radio

Our friend The Father of Aardvarks has an interesting little piece drawing attention to a new report on Arab radio from the Arab Advisors Group; a very solid media advisory group founded a few years back (I should disclose that I know one of the founders, and have done business with him).

Our fine Father of Aardvarks, or Bou Aradvraak as I like to call him, largely concetrates on the public policy angle, which is important, but I find the business angle as interesting.

Continue reading "Arab Radio"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 28, 2005

Sexy Arab Abaya Women, Assumptions: US Public Diplomacy in KSA

Returning to a subject more or less dear to 'Aqoul, women in the Arab world, for a moment, I wanted to draw attention to this intriguing article from the visit by US public diplomacy director Karen Hughes to Saudi Arabia: Saudi Women Have Message for U.S. Envoy

Let me first say little in the article was surprising to me (including Ms. Hughes surprise that the "Sisters" did not look at their cultural heritage and mores in the same light as she expected), but it is a useful one for reflexion. Thus some comments on the article:

Update: The Financial Times also has this story. Better done actually.

Continue reading "Sexy Arab Abaya Women, Assumptions: US Public Diplomacy in KSA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:25 AM | Comments (26) | TrackBack

September 18, 2005

Shadid on Iraq: A Contained Civil War?

Anthony Shadid's new book is out, and on TPM Cafe he gives a series of blog entries related to its content on Iraq. Here is one observation, of many, and I would solicit the Aqoul Brains Trust to give us a view of its accuracy and military-geographic-demographic rationale:

On the question of civil war, I don't see a lot of forces working against its intensification. To be honest, there are few national voices in Iraq these days. Ayad Allawi could be suggested as one, but I don't see him playing too great a role right now. Oddly, Muqtada Sadr is probably the figure who most plays up a nationalist discourse. That's in addition to his brand of sometimes messianic, populist religion. Beyond that, it is remarkable the degree to which politics are pronounced in communal terms. If a civil war worsened, I don't necessary see a conflagration. I think you could have an ostensible government in Baghdad, with ministries and embassies around it. In the hinterland, you could have militias staking out turf: Badr, Sadr and so on vying for influence in parts of Baghdad and the south, elements of the insurgency laying claims to land in the west and center, the Kurdish parties competing in the north, with varying degrees of intensity. Their points of intersection would be explosive, though not necessarily numerous.

I suspect he is mostly correct, though I do question whether parts of Baghdad are aptly described as "hinterland".

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:14 PM | Comments (21) | TrackBack

September 12, 2005

Underdevelopment as Dilettantisme: Why MENA Does Not Attract Capital, Reason No. 5

While sadly behind on my ability to comment substantively, I thought a bit of a comment on dilettanstisme would be worth a quick intervention (and it being all I have time for, it's what one gets).

The comment is provoked by a series of convos over the past few days in regards to a certain MENA country (which for various sensitivity reasons shall remain unnamed) and its hosting of a MENA region investment conference. Let's say that our certain MENA country is not exactly a star performer in the realm of attracted FDI, per capita or in gross. Of course neither is the region.

There are multitudes of reasons for this. The one to be discussed today, dilettantisme.

Continue reading "Underdevelopment as Dilettantisme: Why MENA Does Not Attract Capital, Reason No. 5"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:25 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 05, 2005

Willing. Unwilling. The Pretension of Interest in Democracy & The Middle East

From our dear friend Pratike, who made the error of going to Egypt and Cairo specifically to learn Arabic and thus condemn himself to speaking with a bufoonish accent for the rest of his day, a note on the 'elections' and the pretension that the US Administration is interested in democracy in the MENA region:

His quote from a Washington Post op ed:

Perhaps there is concern that too much pressure on Mubarak might produce a victory by the Muslim Brotherhood, the most popular Egyptian opposition party that has been outlawed by the government. That's a risk, of course, but if the Bush administration isn't willing to let Islamists, even radical Islamists, win votes in a fair election, then Bush officials should stop talking so much about democracy and go back to supporting the old dictatorships. It was precisely that kind of logic -- that friendly dictators are preferable to potentially radical alternatives -- that helped produce so much radicalism during the Cold War and, more recently, a healthy movement of Middle East terrorists.

Well, welcome to reality children. What news.

Continue reading "Willing. Unwilling. The Pretension of Interest in Democracy & The Middle East"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:30 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 30, 2005

Two notes from Lebanon

After a great deal of to-ing and fro-ing, the international commission investigating Rafiq Hariri's death has taken into custody the four senior security chiefs at the time of the assassination, including the serving head of the Presidential Guard. They're only in for questioning, rather than under any sort of arrest or indictment, but it's still a pretty big deal.

As a side note, when I was picking up my dinner, the restaurant's owner was complaining about how everyone else knew something big was going down except him: he had had only five delivery orders the day before, and practically no eat-in customers, apparently because everyone was keeping their heads down. "This is supposed to be an international commission ... what kind of secrecy is this?"

Also, tomorrow (August 31) is the twenty-seventh anniversary of Musa Sadr's abduction. Sadr[1], who founded the AMAL movement and was the first person to bring Shi'ite Islam into the political sphere in Lebanon, was kidnapped on a visit to Libya in 1978 and has not been heard from since. (Qaddafi is not a very popular man in Lebanon.) There are signs up all over Beirut, and ads in all the paper, commemorating the day. I don't know if this is a trick of selective memory or not, but I at least don't remember this much of a fuss being made in previous years - it sure looks like an attempt to compete with the Hariri cult. (Which has subsided somewhat, but there are still a lot of big official posters of Hariri, and a fair number of the unofficial private ones as well. And you still see the big black "the truth / al haqiqa" signs up in places.)

[1] (a cousin of the Iraq Sadrs)

Posted by tomscud at 10:18 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 26, 2005

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)

Added Thoughts on Private Equity for Devleopment MENA

I neglected to touch on a few key points in my original note, below are further thoughts on private equity and economic development for the MENA region.

Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 25, 2005

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development

A few weeks ago I raised the subject of emerging markets private equity in particular in the context of US Gov efforts to utilize the vehicle to further its political / development goals in the Middle East – North Africa region. One of our online world colleagues if you will posed a question to me as to what the “The Lounsbury” approach would be, in the context of my expressed skepticism in regards to the investment vehicle / definition chosen by The Overseas Private Equity Corporation.

Ironically (well not really) at present I am working on materials closely related to just this question, although not really in regards to development – but as much of the private equity activity in region has been international development institution driven there is a clearly overlap. Now, having sent drafts of my materials off for comment I can take a moment to sketch out some preliminary thoughts on the issue that will be the basis for future comment.

First, my assumptions, based on personal experience in the region and in the “sector” if we can call it that. Again, these are my a priori assumptions and principes.

Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:34 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 19, 2005

Annoying grey ships at Aqaba piss me off: Shall Fire rockets at them. (US ships attacked) - updated

Well, this news in the AM bemused me:

Missile Fired at U.S. Navy Ship in Jordan

It reports two missiles (in fact, it appears mortars, not quite the same thing, Mr. Halaby, or perhaps Katyusha rockets..... well something explosive in any case) were fired at US warships at Aqaba harbor.

[update: 17h00 GMT below]

Suppose this will do wonders for tourism. Might clear out the harbor though, reduce the backlog.

Continue reading "Annoying grey ships at Aqaba piss me off: Shall Fire rockets at them. (US ships attacked) - updated"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 16, 2005

Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes

A somewhat quick note building off of a comment by the esteemed Nadezhda in regards to my rapid note on a new US Gov private equity fund _{(also with more rough perso comments at Lounsbury )} backed by the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a US parastatal investment insurance and financing house whose main line of business is political risk insurance on US direct investments in risky locales.

I have been intending - and still intend to - write some commentary on this specific issue of private equity (or in general equity finance) in the MENA region, but I thought some quick notes on this OPIC backed private equity fund for the MENA region are in order, and in response to some notes by Nadezhda - whose name I have learned to spell now.

Continue reading "Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 09, 2005

Iraq - Reconstruction - Knowing when to get out of the way

This article from The Washington Post (Op Ed actually) struck me as if not important a useful point of reflection for a moment:
Less Is More in Iraq
By Michael Rubin
Tuesday, August 9, 2005; Page A17

Let us leave aside Rubin's sketchy history in regards to Iraq as part of what one might properly and non-abusively call a "Neo Conservative" circle in Washington re Iraq (and his direct and personal contribution to the fiasco via his work with CPA-Iraq). Let us leave aside as well the question of whether a US draw down of troops is a good or bad thing (I might argue either way on any given day). Rather, merely look at the question of the US contractor presence.

Continue reading "Iraq - Reconstruction - Knowing when to get out of the way"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:50 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

July 28, 2005

Terror & Ideology - A Resume

We've been talking quite abit about this, naturally given London, Sharm esh-Sheikh and the like. I think a small wrap up, as well as a compare and contrast, especially with some recent reports and editorials, may be useful. So, below the fold I think the expression goes, a longish commentary and perhaps a slight Lounsbury-ish rant:

Continue reading "Terror & Ideology - A Resume"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:52 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

July 27, 2005

On IMF, Populism, Yemen & Jordan: Populism as Self Defeat, or why subsidy riots are not wins

A small note in response to a note by our friend, the Father of Aardvark(s) _{(hmmmm, I believe that I should create an Arabised plural, and for the sheer fun of it, a broken one, so from now on, Abu Aardvark to me is Abu Araadvaraak (abusing grammar and presuming Ardvark is a compound word), or in Maghrebine form Bou Aradvrak).} on the 'victory' of the Yemani street in reversing the revision of subsidised petrol prices.

Continue reading "On IMF, Populism, Yemen & Jordan: Populism as Self Defeat, or why subsidy riots are not wins"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:09 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 26, 2005

Combating Terrorism, Part II, or: Why Do They Still Hate Us?

Why Do They Hate Us? Not Because of Iraq

In a recent New York Times op-ed piece (free registration required), Olivier Roy questions the nature of the relationship between Islamic terrorism and the Israel/Palestine conflict; after all, many of the splashiest Islamic terrorist acts of the past few years have taken place either on the periphery of the parts of the Islamic world that have traditionally drawn Western attention (e.g. Afghanistan, Chechnya), places that haven’t been part of the Muslim world for several centuries (Spain), or places which only recently have experienced an influx of Muslims (England, the U.S.)

Continue reading "Combating Terrorism, Part II, or: Why Do They Still Hate Us?"

Posted by evaluna at 10:28 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack

July 20, 2005

On Iraq: The Question of the Army-in-training

Juan Cole printed a letter today from "Brian", who claims to be a former Australian army officer involved in the training of soldiers. Brian is not impressed with the training regimen in Iraq:

Continue reading "On Iraq: The Question of the Army-in-training"

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July 14, 2005

Islam & Terror - Profounder Reflections

As noted, I remain submerged in corporate flackery and spin, but I wanted to bring several items to everyone's attention.

First, the esteemed Abu Aardvark has two important posts up:

Murphy: Can Islam's leaders reach its radicals?

and

The massacre of children

Continue reading "Islam & Terror - Profounder Reflections"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:01 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

July 06, 2005

Media, Reform, US Gov and Business

On US Gov and Media Reform, an email
I reproduce here an email from a friend of mine in private equity and media in the Middle East, located out there. And an Arab too, not some whinging expat (ahem).

It is lightly edited to scrub certain references and the like, but I share it for its interest. I note that some US Gov types wanted to meet with media actors, including from the business side. I made the introduction. Here is my amigo's note afterward.

Continue reading "Media, Reform, US Gov and Business"

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