Economic Policy Archives

July 29, 2010

Turkey & the old empire (Turkey and MENA)

Slyly referring in the title to some of the crazed political commentary coming out of hard right Israel circles, but I genuinely find this interesting. The Turkish business engagement with MENA has been building since before our AKP fellow, a natural development.

As Turkey Inches Eastward, Syrians Feel the Love - NYTimes.com

GAZIANTEP, Turkey — Well-heeled Syrians had already been coming to this ancient industrial city, drawn here by Louis Vuitton purses and storefront signs in Arabic. But local shop owners say Israel’s deadly raid on a Turkish-led flotilla to Gaza in May has solidified an already blossoming friendship between Syria and Turkey, the new hero of the Muslim world.

“People in Syria love Turkey because the country supports the Arab world, and they are fellow Muslims,” Zakria Shavek, 37, a driver for a Syrian transport company based in Gaziantep, said as he deposited a family of newly arrived shoppers from Aleppo, which competes with Damascus for the title of Syria’s largest city and is about a two-hour drive from here. “Our enemy in the world is Israel, so we also like Turkey because our enemy’s enemy is our friend.”

The monthly pilgrimages of tens of thousands of Syrians to this southeastern Turkish city — which intensified after the two countries removed visa requirements last September — are just the latest manifestation of the growing ties between Turkey and Syria, part of the Turkish government’s efforts to reach out to its neighbors by using economic and cultural links to help it become a regional leader.

Turkey’s shift toward the Muslim world — from the recent clash with Israel to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s description of Iran’s nuclear program as peaceful — has prompted concerns in the United States and Europe that Turkey, an important NATO ally, is turning its back on the West.

But in Turkey, where 70 percent of all exports go to Europe, businesspeople insist that the government’s policy of cultivating friendly ties with all neighbors reflects a canny and very Western capitalist impulse to offset dependence on stagnating European markets while cementing Turkey’s position as a vital economic and political bridge between east and west.

Emphasis added. Quite so. I recall again a recent conversation with American diplomats that I ran into that were in high dungeon after snubs to some Israeli delegation that they - the Americans - were pimping in the region. Leaving aside the queerness of why the Americans were so very solicitous of an Israeli delegation's meetings (they do seem to forget it is a foreign country, and one never sees quite this solicitousness for other allies), their view that Turkey was 'turning against them' was just boggling. As was their apparently genuine surprise at the reaction to the Gazan flotilla event (as if one of their own citizens had not been killed, well one of the wrong religion and ethnicity it would appear); entire and myopic misread of the Turkish relationship and influences.

Indeed, most Arab states, including Syria, enthusiastically support Turkey’s bid to join the European Union, viewing Turkey as a vital intermediary to Western markets that might otherwise be off limits. At the political level, Turkey’s influence in the Middle East is also deeply enhanced by its strong Western ties — a fact recognized by Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, who shocked many in the Turkish capital this month by warning that the latest crisis between Israel and Turkey could undermine Ankara’s role as a mediator in the region.

I also believe this is largely true. 

While it is a bit of journalistic .... shiny new objectism to point to this as entirely new after the Gaza debacle, there is certainly a real development. Shall try to return to further comment on the article, unfortunately on a plane the next two days.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 22, 2010

Small Cap & Dubai Getting its Groove Back

One thing Dubai continues to do well is move fast - of course moving fast in the real estate bubble got them in major trouble, but if the efforts are not at cross purposes with their various markets, this has some interesting potential.

FT.com / FT Trading Room - Dubai prepares to launch second-tier market

The tax-free DIFC financial zone, which has its own laws modelled on western regulations, would find it easier to set up a new bourse than other jurisdictions, said Mr Saidi.

“But we don’t want it to be restricted to the DIFC, we think all countries in the region would benefit from such a market,” he said.

A second-tier market would remove some of the financial and regulatory barriers to listing that put off some smaller companies from initial public offerings on local markets, where companies have to float 55 per cent of their shares at a price dictated by the authorities, rather than via a book-building process.

Mr Saidi said there are many companies based in the “free zones” of Dubai – government-run business parks that allow foreigners to hold 100 per cent stakes in their businesses – that would want to use the new exchange to engineer a financial exit from their businesses.

Many of these foreign-owned businesses, spanning sectors such as logistics, technology and media, have also faced challenges in raising capital in the downturn as bank credit has tightened up.

Amid Dubai’s economic downturn, the government is focusing on developing small- and medium-sized enterprises. Dubai is mulling the introduction of special visas for entrepreneurs and new regulations to make it easier for small businesses to be set up. The UAE is also working on insolvency laws to allow more orderly winding up of companies.

The plan for a new sub-market comes amid broader exchanges consolidation in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates.

DIFC-based NasdaqDubai and Dubai Financial Market, the government-controlled domestic bourse, have linked their trading platforms in a bid to encourage DFM retail investors to inject liquidity into NasdaqDubai, the listing home to global ports operator DP World.

Officials are also working on a merger between the stock exchanges of Dubai and Abu Dhabi to create a deeper, pan-UAE market, which would likely become more attractive to foreign funds.

Emphasis added. This sounds like Dubai Gov is starting to get back to the bread and butter, after wasting vast capital and effort over the past few years playing real estate speculation. Now if they can suck up the RE pain, maybe they can jaw the developers into making those ridiculous towers affordable. 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 15, 2010

Tunisia, a paragon of ... backsliding

The Ben Ali regime is clever, I have to give them that. Dressing up regime-self-protection as economic security is interesting.

FT.com / Middle East - Tunisia accused of harassing its critics

The law opens to punishment any Tunisian who contacts foreign parties with the aim of harming the country’s “economic security”. It seems aimed particularly at local human rights activists who lobby for more pressure on their government from the European Union, Tunisia’s foremost trade and investment partner

Ah the poor Ben Alis, one would hardly want to crimp the lifestyle.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Are they Bloody Daft?: US Department of State: Maghreb Entrepreneurship Conference September 29-30, 2010 in Algiers

I mean really. Algeria? Is the American government bloody daft? Algeria is doing everything possible to make life hell for entrepreneurs and foreign investors. I guess Petrol talks, but bloody hell this may be one of the stupidest site hostings (and Algiers... well people can enjoy the State-run splendour of El Aurassi, that fine monument to the brilliance of state hotels - and museum to the 1970s glory days).

US Department of State: Maghreb Entrepreneurship Conference September 29-30, 2010 in Algiers Builds on Presidential Summit on Entrepreneurship

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 11, 2010

WB new report to chew on: FDI restrictions in MENA (& global)

Just noticed this alert. I shall have to sit down and chew on this. Although there are limitations to such efforts, necessary to have a standardized comparison across the globe, I am finding these new private business environment orientated databases WB is developing to be quite interesting and useful (whatever their flaws, they help bring some greater objectivity than is available from many bespoke private efforts that often are quite... marketing oriented).

FDI restrictions stifle start ups: World Bank report - International Business Times

-- In Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa, completion of procedures by foreign companies consumes twice the time required by domestic companies.

No kidding. Never-mind the shitty little functionaries that see the foreigners as walking pocketbooks.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 10, 2010

Egypt & The Arab Socialists: Failures in Liberalisation

An interesting article from FT on the ongoing failure  of liberalization in Egypt (despite the cheer-leading press on this over the years, Egypt benefiting from the Pyramid Halo Effect) A general observation is how much the hard-core Arab socialist countries ended up resembling each other in terms of their dysfunctionalities. Egypt, Algeria, Syria - all three show really impressive similarities in terms of economic dysfunction despite a fair degree of diversity between themselves otherwise.

FT.com Unrest adds to Egypt’s labour travails (emphasis added in bold)

Almost unheard of a few years ago, labour protests are now so frequent in Egypt that barely a week goes by without a sit-in or strike by workers calling for higher wages or better conditions. .... Earlier this year, successive waves of workers camped out for weeks at a time on a narrow strip of pavement in front of parliament to call attention to their grievances. The protesters have included public and private-sector employees. Egyptians protesting in support of political demands can usually expect a harsh response from the security services. More tolerance, however, has been shown towards workers and in most cases the government has made concessions. The reason, analysts argue, is that the authorities fear that suppressing agitation in favour of specific economic demands could give rise to wider political unrest. There is also a recognition that high inflation has severely eroded the purchasing power of low salaries. ....

“There is no country in the world which does not set a minimum wage,” says Kamal Abbas, a labour activist who runs the independent Centre for Trade Union and Workers Services. “This has to reflect a basic basket of goods, and it should be open to renegotiation [when prices rise].” [Lounsbury:  Absolute rubbish, but the usual posturing that one hears from labour activists] He and others say Egypt has no functioning mechanism for agreeing wages. Trade unions are under the control of the government, undermining their ability to reflect the interests of their members. [Lounsbury: Well, yes,really the worst of both worlds although I hardly care much for the radical leftism of the labour groups in MENA]

High unemployment, officially at 9.4 per cent but unofficially much higher, means workers are often prepared to accept low salaries and illegal or unsafe working practices. ... Relative costs are a concern. Employers in Egypt complain that the productivity of local workers is low, their work ethic poor, and they are ever-ready to abandon their jobs for slightly higher wage offers. [Lounsbury: I can't get behind the criticism of always being ready to switch to better pay, never understood that as a critique]  “There is a mismatch between the capabilities of the unemployed and the qualifications wanted by companies,” says Ahmed Abdel Wahab, the head of the Engineering Industries Export Council. “Ironically we have unemployment, but it is not because there are no jobs.”

The problem is at its most acute in the textile industry, a labour-intensive sector that employs some 30 per cent of the manufacturing workforce. “The global crisis has offered us here in Egypt opportunities, but we are unable to benefit because we cannot grow fast enough because we have a people problem,” says Magdy Tolba, a garments manufacturer and exporter who employs 4,000 workers. Mr Tolba always needs an extra 700 to 800 workers “in all departments”. He blames the problem on the poor quality of state-funded vocational education and the emergence of generations of graduates who shun industry in favour of easy jobs in the civil service, where the day ends at 2pm. [Lounsbury: "Emergence?]

The average salary in his factory, he says, is $133 a month and could reach $180 with overtime. “If salaries go any higher we would be unable to compete,” he says. “Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam have lower labour costs.” Mr Tolba says he has had to import workers from Bangladesh in order to meet his export commitments. They cost him up to 25 per cent more than Egyptian workers, but their productivity, he says, is 40 per cent higher.

The government is aware of the need to improve vocational training and there are several schemes under way to address the issue, some funded by foreign donors. But experts say a more comprehensive strategy is needed. Mr Radwan, the former ILO economist, says that a “formula which worked from Brazil to Singapore” is the establishment of a training fund in which the private sector contributes 1 per cent of its labour costs. “The fund would be run by government, labour and business, but the private sector would have the upper hand,” he says.

Poor competitiveness due to poor labour culture and general productivity are real handicaps for the MENA region as they are not super low cost relative to direct labour cost. The sheer and utter cretinism of the state supported training programs is hard to capture. The Private Sector type run training fund is a good idea, if implemented correctly. One rather suspects given Egyptian Pharaonism that will never be the case.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 06, 2010

Class Demographics Explain Better MENA/Muslim Integration in USA?

The Washington Times, not normally a spurting fountain of Muslim-friendly coverage, praises the relatively successful integration of Muslim immigrants in America when compared to that of Europe. (The newsstory mostly concentrates on inter-faith dialogue, but the broader implication of better relative integration (e.g. “melting pot”) in America comes through loud and clear.) While I do enjoy a nice dose of American exceptionalism, and I do think it may apply here in some ways, let me nevertheless throw out a less nationalistic hypothesis on relative integration levels. I am too lazy and busy to find and crunch the appropriate numbers and surveys to confirm or refute it, but here it is: Could some of the relatively better Muslim/MENA integration in America be simply due to the fact that Muslim immigrants there have tended towards the educated professional and middle class, rather than being a large class of laborers as may be the case in lots of Europe?

Continue reading "Class Demographics Explain Better MENA/Muslim Integration in USA?"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 12:20 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack

April 03, 2010

Algeria, stick in the eye, Orascom

Doubtless this will improve the free fall in FDI for Algeria, US$ 600 million fine upheld over the Gov's just oincidentally timed tax jihad against the Egyptian Co (the sin being selling other asset's without President CombOver's okay / cut)
Egypt's Orascom" loses Algeria tax appeal - BusinessWeek

Egyptian telecommunications giant Orascom Telecom says its Algerian subsidiary Djezzy has lost its final appeal over a tax reassessment of almost $600 million.

Orascom, which operates Mobinil, Egypt's largest mobile phone service provider by number of subscribers, said in a statement Thursday it "intends to challenge this rejection" by the Algerian tax authority in the country's administrative courts.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 31, 2010

Dubai Financial Job Bloodletting

Reading this I am have a slight frission  - chill - schadenfreunde having turned down Khalij opportunities as I did not believe in the fundamentals. Doubtless I missed out on making stupid money, but personally I get rather more satisfaction from working on things I consider real (even if risky)

FT.com / Alarm raised over Gulf financial job losses

It has been a torrid 12 months for white-collar employment in the Gulf – and for the agencies who act as intermediaries in hiring senior executives.

In February, GulfTalent, a recruitment agency, said that Dubai lost 17 per cent of its professional workforce last year and reported that western foreign nationals had been hit the hardest.
 
...
The picture in financial services is more mixed [than property developers]. Headhunters say that the international institutions are used to slumps in business, and made their reductions in the immediate wake of the collapse of Lehmann Brothers in late 2008. By contrast local institutions, with a few notable exceptions, have not made large-scale redundancies.

...

Somewhat selective quoting, but this seems entirely predictable on some level, if one was not a complete PR Release sucker.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:26 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 24, 2010

Dubai: DIFC head detained.

Well this is quite intriguing.

FT.com / In depth - Dubai detains former finance centre chief

Continue reading "Dubai: DIFC head detained."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Morocco breaks into the investment leagues

Interesting item as for the past seven years Morocco has been trying to get its sovereign rating from S&P, Moody's and Fitch up. They finally got S&P to budge:
S&P raises Morocco's rating on low debt | Reuters

S&P raises Morocco's rating on low debt
Tue Mar 23, 2010 2:45pm GMT

Continue reading "Morocco breaks into the investment leagues"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 19, 2010

Algeria, I adore you. 1970s Policy was NOT a failure and you're out to prove (Banning... Couscous exports)

Okay to be fair they have the rather bad excuse of trying to control for usage of subsidised wheat inputs, but there's no rational way to do that. That's the problem with subsidies Ali Bey Naceri, expert en commerce extérieur: “le couscous et les pâtes vont être “exportés” par la contrebande” INTERVIEW - Economie et Business - Tout sur l'Algérie

 

Ali Bey Naceri, expert en commerce extérieur, revient sur les effets négatifs pour l’économie algérienne de la décision du gouvernement d’interdire l’exportation des pâtes et du couscous produits

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Ah, a warm and fuzzy feel. : Blogs as sources of info on Gulf Finance

While in some ways sad that we (Aqoul) missed that boat - no matter I am far too busy to pretend to that any more, this warmed my heart: FT.com / Companies / Financial Services - Blogs air views on stifled Gulf finance

Great understatement though:

Blogs air views on stifled Gulf finance

By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi

Published: March 3 2010 16:44 | Last updated: March 3 2010 16:44

Local media coverage of financial affairs can be anodyne in the Gulf, largely thanks to stifling press laws, corporate meddling and a culture of self-censorship. But financial blogs are starting to proliferate and can offer a valuable, alternative, take on events.

Many local newspapers, with a few exceptions, print newswire stories or press releases verbatim and often steer away from contentious, politically sensitive stories. Blogs, meanwhile, have given many locals and expatriates an outlet for venting their views on the stories of the day.

“Blogs are definitely useful in the region, but are only coming of age now,” says a senior analyst in Dubai. “I always look at blogs to get a sense of grassroot sentiment and hear the views of other people.”

Most regional financial and economic blogs and forums are in Arabic but several English-language sites have emerged. One of the first was Sharewadi, which is mainly devoted to financial talk and data in the United Arab Emirates, and is in many ways the prototype of similar websites that have sprung up across the region.

...  “That guy at Sharewadi deserves a medal,” says Ken Monahan, a former senior banker in the Gulf. “There has been some really insightful stuff on there over the years.”  ...

 There is a need for more robust discussion of company financials in the region.”

Emphasis added.
On the highlighted, no bloody kidding.

Although one item that caught my attention is re Arabic language blogs on finance. Could anyone recommend those worth reading? I have yet to find one, but I must confess that I became turned off on the tripe usually written on economics in Arabic that I stopped looking seriously.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 14, 2010

MENA M&A Cross Border Deals and State Structure

Toying around with financial data, a summary table about intra MENA deals since 1992 (it doesn't necessarily include the purely private deals).

A very quick glance reveals an interesting trend: the states which have the least cross border acquirers are Algeria (2), Iraq (0), Libya (4), Syria (1), Sudan (0), Tunisia (1) and Yemen (0). A notable fact also is, the only cross border deal a Tunisian company made was backed by Saudi private equity.

Continue reading "MENA M&A Cross Border Deals and State Structure"

Posted by Iskandar Haddad at 09:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

January 26, 2010

Gulf Labor Markets

Bahrain and the UAE have adopted different approaches while addressing the lack of citizens in their private sectors. Most Gulf states have tried to create quotas for their nationals in private enterprises. Businesses have resisted, fearing less productive workers, and these policies have accomplished little. Oman has been a partial exception, mostly because its relatively poor government cannot really afford to support all its citizens, leave alone employ everyone who wants a job.

Continue reading "Gulf Labor Markets"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 11:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 29, 2009

Yemen: fingers in the dyke.

Reading articles like this from FT.com, on Yemen "Social pressures weigh on poorest Arab state" frankly are depressing even for a MENA optimist. The "good news" is Yemen is building a LNG facility. Wonderful. It will give the state the money to buy more weapons to pretend to assert control over the pseudo state. That does not change the deadly death cycle of Yemani society, with rapidly declining water yields (from non-renewable water resources), the dead weight of the Qat production (itself water intensive), and a birth rate that is of Sub Saharan African levels.

Social pressures weigh on poorest Arab state

Just over a month ago, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s president, joined international oil executives to inaugurate his impoverished country’s biggest industrial venture – a liquefied natural gas project.

For a veteran leader of the Arab world’s poorest nation, the launch of the plant could not have come soon enough. The $4.5bn (£2.8bn, €3.3bn) project is expected to generate between $30bn and $50bn in income for the government over the plant’s 25-year lifespan.

To be honest, it is really very hard to have hope for Yemen - even harder than say Egypt.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:16 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 27, 2009

Further to Dubai and Gulf Analysis

There is not much to add to this, other than the perhaps uncharitable observation that after one has had a nice laissez les bons temps rouler (to use the Acadien) it is not productive (or rather useful to pretend the hangover is the fault of the bartenders: Suq Al Mal

There's a commentary in The National on the relative negotiating positions of the banks and Dubai Inc which is to put it mildly a bit unbalanced. It seems much of this is based on comments from the borrower.

It's unclear if this article is meant as propaganda to raise morale on the home front. Or it reflects the thinking of decision makers at Dubai Inc - that they really believe they are in the driver's seat. If it does, a very dangerous delusion.

Certainly, Dubai Inc is not without leverage. The sheer quantum of debt and the government connection give Dubai a good deal of negotiating power. But that power is not unlimited. It cannot serve up whatever dish it wants.

Indeed, but after a 15 year bender, the hangover is hard to accept.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

FT on Gulf Censorship in business, reflexions of censorship inducing economic failure. (useful review)

Despite my delay an article well worth reviewing, as it highlights the nexus of needs for developing private sector and civil culture: Dubai crisis throws the spotlight on analysts.

As a pre commentary, the article highlights a key problem in the MENA region and in particular the Gulf with its pet press and ostentatious obsession with Praise remains: lack of critical thinking or at least public critical thinking.

It is worthwhile noting that globally, business press and business reporting - even in the USA - is not particularly literate or well informed, let alone critical. One only gets critical reporting in business issues on Big Items from Big Papers (most literately - in my order of preference - from Financial Times and from Wall Street Journal). Regional / local equivalents exists of various quality, but sadly well-informed business reporting available to the public is rare (quality subscriptions are available of course).

All this aside, the FT article is spot on (if a bit narrow in its focus on the Gulf - sadly although understandably  - most MENA conversation in Anglophone media really is about the Gulf and Indoafpak lands). Some comments on the article:

First on transparency:

Abu Dhabi’s recent Dubai bail-out may have removed some of the immediate risks of default in the emirate but the saga has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many investors – and led to calls for greater transparency in the United Arab Emirates.

Dubai has admitted that it owes about $80bn, but the restructuring of the Dubai World conglomerate announced earlier this month has revealed a mass of undisclosed loans. Some analysts estimate that the emirate could owe as much as $150bn in total.

Primo, everyone suspected this. Second, the approach of dribbling out (at metaphorical gunpoint) clarifications only worsens the doubts of investors and renders the Emirates (I used that deliberately) image. Rather better to get all the known bad news out now, price it all in, and move forward.

But not if:
(i) One is in reality treating this as a "domestic affaire" and foreign (non Emirate perhaps non Gulf) creditors are secondary considerations (conracts be fucked)
(ii) One is deeply underwater relative to obligations, and believes that in short term nothing is clear.

Anyway, this is almost obvious. Stating that

The disparity highlights the fact that the official statistics and forecasts that are available are often either lacking or misleading, say bankers.

verges on the banal.

If anyone believed Emirati official projections since say 2005 (and clearly some people really did - although post fact denials muddy the water) they were morons... or corrupt dupes.

This has meant that during the past year and more, the research teams of international and regional banks have proved vital sources of information and analysis.

Ahem.

Well that would not be my call (I would say the fucking cunts were Johnny fucking come lately useless fuckers).

Public and Private analysis that I have seen have been post facto ass covering. I will admit that a few high cost services I will not cite as I am not in the business of pimping non-public sourcing and fucking blogs (e.g. Suq Al Mal and some others would have given better insight than the faux numbers coming out of Dubai.

In any case the observation that [the] "series of negative reports produced in the wake of the financial crisis has not been welcomed by local executives and officials – who in the preceding years were accustomed to a muzzled local press and uniformly glowing reports is no surprise.

We can skip over the details of the article, although it deserves a close analysis, to a core and key observation: a relatively free and critical business press (however illiterate) is useful to have as a reality check.

No matter how stupid or illiterate they are, an actively critical press is useful in to help reign in the worst idiocies. I will try to expand on this later, but a major lesson I have taken away from my experience in investing or operating in emerging markets is that even a "yellow press" -if it is reasonably free and competitive - is useful.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:17 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 23, 2009

The Algerian State's Ongoing Score Settling: The Orascom Tax (or how dare you sell your assets on the free market-Whitax, you dumb Egyptian bastards)

While without having direct access to the Orascom dossier, this charming news item amuses me  Orascom Telecom suspendu à la décision du fisc algérien sur sa filiale algérienne OTA - Economie et Business - Tout sur l'Algérie (Orascom Telecom in suspended animation waiting for the tax decision on its Algerian affiliate) 

Generally speaking it seems clear that the Algerian Gov't (to the extent there is a coherent policy), has gone into a fine 1970s "soaks the foreigners" and favour political economic actors (1970s again, ah the youth of Boutef...),  Marchés publics : le gouvernement veut réduire la part des groupes étrangers - Economie et Business - Tout sur l'Algérie (Public Markets, the Government wishes to reduce the market share of foreign groups). The article charmingly notes that the Government is looking to revise the rules on tendering so as to give priority to "National Firms" (not defined but without doubt favouring state firms who can't otherwise compete...)  - and without doubt exceptions to "strategic partners" such as the Chinese firms that import most of their labour.... What's disturbing here is that the Algerian government is attacking the most effective investors in the economy, the investors who have produced real value, and remaining silent and complacent regarding the Chinese that frankly are rather less employment generative in their contracting and investments. It's sad (and counter productive) that the Algerian state remains trapped in a reactionary cycle with France,

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:17 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 14, 2009

More Emirate Suprises: Abu Dhabi

Well, pain has effects: Abu Dhabi Gives Dubai $10 Billion for Use on Debt - NYTimes.com

Monday’s bailout came as a shock to many investors. But a growing sense within the region that other indebted companies, in particular Dubai Holdings, the conglomerate owned by Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, would also have trouble meeting their obligations seems to have pressed Abu Dhabi to take immediate action.

Abu Dhabi may also have been influenced by the aggressive pose taken by Nakheel’s creditors, many of them foreign hedge funds who, instead of negotiating, aimed to force Dubai World into default as a means of securing some its valuable assets, like its highly strategic port operations.

While there have always been tensions between the expansionist ambitions of Dubai and more conservative Abu Dhabi, the prospect of foreign investors laying claim to some of the United Arab Emirates’ most valuable properties seems to have brought the two emirates together — for the time being at least.

Abu Dhabi was also taken aback by the harsh reaction by global investors after Dubai World asked for the delay on the debt repayments. Credit rating agencies downgraded most institutions in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, making it extremely difficult for these companies to raise funds abroad.

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:48 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 07, 2009

Algerian Press

A quick reference to an interesting discussion The Algerian press & mass-market reach « Maghreb Politics Review

 

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Algeria: Complementary Finance Law 09 & Cutting off the nose to spite the face

I remain fascinated by the ongoing saga of the reaction to Algeria's "Complementary Finances Law 2009" that came out this summer, and imposed a number of post-facto restrictions on foreign investment in the country. The Algerian reaction has largely been queerly spiteful, and indeed the motivations for the restrictions largely driven by a rather Command & Control understanding of the economy that itself is largely spiteful (foreigners not investing enough [due to unattractive conditions], why we must force them! And punish them for investing in Tunisia and Morocco!), rather than seeking an understanding of what would encourage more investment and more activity by foreign firms inside Algeria.

This article is fairly typical, LFC 2009 : à Alger, les délégations étrangères continuent d’afficher publiquement leur désaccord avec le gouvernement (Comp. Finance Law 2009, in Algiers, foreign delegations continue to publicly express their disagreement with the Government)

De tels propos montrent bien que malgré les apparences, les étrangers continuent leur campagne de mobilisation pour faire comprendre à l'Algérie que ce nouveau climat économique n'est pas le plus propice au développement des investissements étrangers dans le pays.

Une initiative qui a l'air de ne pas tellement déranger Alger qui reçoit au plus haut niveau ces « visiteurs », non sans avoir ces derniers mois tapé du point sur la table pour rappeler sa souveraineté. Il faut dire que cette mobilisation des acteurs économiques étrangers paraît assez exceptionnelle. Est-elle aussi importante dans le cas d'autres pays, qui ont des réglementations autant si ce n'est plus contraignantes pour les investisseurs. On peut citer par exemple le cas de l'Arabie Saoudite où toute implantation étrangère ne peut se faire qu'avec un associé local et où existent des quotas d'embauches d'employés locaux.

Trans
Such propositions demonstrate that despite appearances, the foreigners are continuing their campaign to make Algeria understand that this new economic climate isn't the most propitious for the development of foreign investment in the country.

An initiative that does not have the appearance of particularly disturbing Algiers, which has been receiving at the highest level these "visitors" but not without tapping on the table to draw attention to its sovereignty these past months. It must be noted that this mobilisation of the foreign economic actors appears to be quite exceptional. Is it as significant in the case of other countries which have regulations as constrained if not more so? One can cite the example of Saudi Arabia where all foreign investment has to be done with a local associate and where local employee quotes exist.

Ah charming, one really is on the wrong end of development if Saudi Arabia is your example. Unsurprisingly the Journalist however has his facts wrong. The Kingdom actually revised its investment law in 2000, i.e. a decade ago, to allow 100% foreign ownership (although it does advantage - carrot, not stick - JVs in certain tax areas) in most areas. Of course the other item this rather impoverished piece of commentary journalism misses is that most countries with these restrictions have not recently imposed them, indeed the general trend globally is to lift such restrictions. The Saudisation law re employment is a rather silly thing to argue with, as it is generally considered a flop (lots of fake jobs for unproductive Saudi employees).

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Algeria & Egypt: ongoing divorce

After the absurd Football Crisis (see these posts at Global Voices for bloggy round ups), but the short of it is that World Cup qualifiers last month between Egypt and Algeria degenerated into mob violence in both countries (and neither government covered itself in intra-Arab relationship glory...), the knives in Algeria have really been out for Orascom. The football nationalism was simply the last excuse the Algerian state needed for pushing Orascom out, as part of Le Pouvoir (the army factions)'s reassertion of their main-morte control over the economy. The appeal of Soviet style command and control is rather large for the corrupt generals and their affiliates that run Algeria.

So we find now, as per this arty Après Vivendi et Cevital, Sonatrach s’intéresse au dossier : la vente de Djezzy se précise (After Vivendi and Cevital, Sonatrach expresses interest in the dossier, Djezzy [Orascom mobile operator in Algeria] sale begins to be defined) that the Petrol State is going to take a piece of the action (well, is likely to, not yet really a done deal, but given Algeria, Sawiris will be wise to get out, else he faces years of destructive behaviour on the part of Algeria).

Et le scénario qui se dessine devrait être le suivant : une alliance entre le français Vivendi, le groupe privé Cevital et la Sonatrach. Le groupe français aura 49% de la future structure ; Sonatrach et Cevital se partageront les 51% restants. Cette configuration va permettre le respect de la nouvelle loi algérienne en matière d’investissements étrangers qui oblige le partenaire étranger à céder au moins 51% du capital à des Algériens. Le management devrait être assuré par Vivendi, un opérateur qui possède une longue expérience dans la téléphonie mobile.

La présence de Sonatrach dans le projet constitue une bénédiction de l’Etat algérien pour ce rachat. Mais pas seulement. Elle a une portée économique et stratégique pour l’Algérie.

Trans:
The scenario being defined is likely to be the following: an alliance between the French firm Vivendi, the private [Algerian] group Cevital and Sonatrach [the state-within-a-state petrol monopoly]. The French group would have 49% of the future structure, Sonatrach and Cevital sharing the 51% remaining. This configuration will permit compliance with the new Algerian law with respect to foreign investment which obliges foreign partners to give up at least 51% of capital to the Algerians. The management of the company would be in the hands of Vivendi, an operator that posses a long experience in mobile telephone operations.

The presence of Sonatrach in the project represents the benediction of the Algerian state pour this acquisition. But not only that, it has an economic and strategic aspect for Algeria.

In many ways I find this amusingly revelatory of the direction the Algerian government is going and as well on the queer role of Sonatrach. It certainly is far from obvious what business a petrol firm has in mobile telecoms buyouts, other than representing a nice cash box for the Generals to dip into in their ongoing re-Mamloukisation of the economy. Vivendi must be rather confident of its ties to go for this, although as a major strategic buyer, they may be able to suck up the next few years of cretinous policy.

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December 06, 2009

Kuwait sale of Citi

I am intrigued by this, FT.com - Kuwait fund sells $4bn Citi stake. The timing is interesting. It's quiet (not high profile) and rather clearly says that holding on longer from their view is not ... the best use of their capital.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:28 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 03, 2009

Charming Bigotry around Islamic finance

The level of paranoia from this American Likoudnik over 'Islamic' finance is ... amusing if also rather sad. As regular Aqoul readers know, I am not great fan of Islamic finance, considering it at best to be an awkward fiction (at worst, a grave error financially speaking). At the same time the writing here is absurd: The Threat of Shariah-Compliant Finance - David Yerushalmi - The Corner on National Review Online

Now it is The National Review, which as far as I can tell is a cesspool of far right lunacy in the US, but this mixture of financial illiteracy and grotesque abuse of language for what is in the end blind religious bigotry:

The Threat of Shariah-Compliant Finance [David Yerushalmi]

....

What makes this story more than simply one of a massive real-estate-investment company gone bad is the double-edged sword so prevalent in the chase for oil-based Middle East wealth: sovereign wealth funds and Shariah-compliant finance.

...

Another phenomenon that followed the great Oil Rush of the post-9/11 era was the promotion and aggressive exportation of a Muslim Brotherhood doctrine called Shariah-compliant finance (SCF). SCF or “Islamic finance” was first articulated in the mid-20th century by men like Sayyid Qutb of Egypt and Abul Ala Maududi of Pakistan, both of whom argued for a jihad against Westernization and for the creation of Islamic polities that would ultimately join in a hegemonic global Caliphate, with the goal of establishing Shariah not merely as the supreme law of the land, but as the supreme law of the world.

Continue reading "Charming Bigotry around Islamic finance"

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November 30, 2009

Dubai, a succient "why the impact"?

This from FT's Lex "Dubai and sell":

So why the panic? There are sensible explanations. The first is that after a too-quick-to-be-true recovery from the biggest meltdown for generations, Dubai is a reminder the world is not out of the woods. A large default in some faraway land reinforces the sense that another shock can come from anywhere. Second, the news is slapping investors out of their silly belief that emerging markets deserve risk premiums barely above developed ones. Finally, Dubai is a warning not to assume investments are always state-guaranteed, even in this age of government largesse.

Emphasis added

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November 29, 2009

Dubai, oh My IV: support, non-support and haircuts

First as noted on Suq Al Mal the UAE Central Bank stepped up with some panic stopping emergency facilities. Although I am now en route back home and away from the centre of the storm, I am certain the expat chatter and potential for panic driven bank runs was (is) there. Also from NY Times U.A.E. Will Support Banks in Dubai Credit Crisis some further detail also at FT. As Abu Arqala noted, issuance of a public statement during the Eid holiday is not ordinary, indeed rather extraordinary.

Second, I have been chewing on the question of bailing out Nakheel or letting it die. On one hand, abstracting away from fears of setting off a crisis, I fully believe the idiots that financed Nakheel fully deserve a nice splash of ice cold water in the face. Balanced against that, however, is my fear that the more sober emerging markets in my zone of MENA will be semi-innocent collateral damage, largely due to the rather clumsy and stupid way that Dubai has handled this (highlighting the fact that behind the facade of modern marketing, the regime has not genuinely modernised its attitudes towards communication, it's all Medh all the time). Prepping the grounds better for the bad news, rather than an unprepared statement before a long set of international market holidays probably should have seen the Nakheel event go somewhat more smoothly (or at least not have the immediate panic).

Continue reading "Dubai, oh My IV: support, non-support and haircuts"

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November 28, 2009

Dubia, oh My III: Ongoing thoughts.

First, from comments, the author of this post : Suq Al Mal: Dubai US$5 Billion Debt Sales - Less Than Meets the Eye and An Explanation for the Restructuring at Dubai World helpfully draws attention to some very key details that deserve wider attention (as i have not seen them raised elsewhere).

In particular this:

It seems that the US$5 billion sale was actually US$2 billion in cash now with the promise to buy the remaining US$3 billion over the next year.

I rather find this and other details confirming that the easy "Abu Dhabi will ride into the rescue of Dubai" commentary is far too superficial. (As this Reuters story on "aid to Dubai [from Abu Dhabi] 'case by case'" ; "... a senior Abu Dhabi official said on Saturday [that] "We will look at Dubai's commitments and approach them on a case-by-case basis. It does not mean that Abu Dhabi will underwrite all of their debts," ...."Some of Dubai's entities are commercial, semi-government ones. Abu Dhabi will pick and choose when and where to assist," he said.")The Cousins in Abu Dhabi will want their pound of flesh from the Al Maktoum. I'd suggest that commentators looking at this in a purely theoretical framework of sovereigns etc are going to miss important parts of the intra-family dynamics that will definitely complicate things (and note, more of the Al Maqtoum have been moved into Dubai positions of late, technocrats losing power). Too many bank analysts in Dubai have the critical analytical sophistication of high schoolers, merely asserting their hope of unbounded Abu Dhabi largesse as the analytical anchor (of course merely asserting absurdly optimistic base case scenarios was long par for the course in Dubai).

Otherwise, this post in FT's Alphaville quoting a rather sharper analyst in Dubai posing the question of whether the real depth of the debt hole is known is worth a read. It also raises the contagion risk that I touched on. I'm a lot less sanguine about that risk than the analysis there, as this as a  calculated manoeuvre as Dubai's position may not resolve well - given all the ingredients of the intra-Emirati family fight over control and power, family struggles tending easier to ugly fights. Note, for example, from FT.com / Middle East - How the Dubai crisis unfolded

November 26

Global markets slump on fears that any Dubai default could trigger contagion in other emerging markets. There is still no comment from the department of finance, except to insist that DP World is ring-fenced. Bondholders, led by a New York hedge fund, start to organise themselves to appoint legal advisers to communicate with Dubai World and mull legal action to recover assets.

Then, at about 11pm local time, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman of Dubai’s supreme fiscal committee, breaks the emirate’s silence with a curt statement saying that he understands the concerns of the markets but is determined to take decisive action on Dubai World’s debt.

“The government is spearheading the restructuring of this commercial operation in the full knowledge of how the markets would react,” he says.

(emphasis added).

Otherwise, some other comments of interest, from FT.com - Dubai gambles with its financial reputation relative to financial investors who've taken a narrow analysis:
 

The emirate’s inability to repay also casts a shadow on the Maktoum family’s vital relations with its cousins who rule Abu Dhabi, the al-Nahyans, who seem to be letting their poorer kin sweat it out in public. One wondered what price Abu Dhabi might demand for a full bail-out. One plausible option was a tighter union among the seven UAE states, with maverick Dubai forced to trim its embarrassing ties with Iran and Israel. Dubai might also have been asked to merge its independent customs service into the federal bureaucracy. Sheikh Mohammed may be calculating that Dubai’s foreign policy freedom is more valuable than its financial reputation.

There is logic in this. The bankers in London and New York have been important in nurturing Dubai’s growth. But the emirate’s ties with the region – Karachi, Mumbai, Riyadh and Tehran – are those that will make or break this city.

(emphasis added)

Of course the Al Maktoum just made the lives of their Gulf cousins and neighbours rather more 'interesting" which is certainly going to make this process more complex than someone sitting at a monitor in London might think. Also relative to the process, this observation from FT.com  Editorial - A breathtaking blunder in Dubai:

... Instead of these Ivy League-educated whiz kids, he [the Emir] has fallen back on his family, the court and the traditional merchant class. .... Although, like everything else in Dubai, it was unexplained, it was interpreted as recognition that the emirate had over-borrowed and over-reached. Yet, it is not obvious that the way to re-establish credibility with the markets is to follow this up with a runic message on deferring debt repayments – and then disappear on a four-day public holiday.

Indeed, but it is easier to understand as an internal Emirati "settling of accounts."

Also worth quoting, from the same,

Why Dubai World felt the need to defer repayment of a $3.5bn Islamic bond of its Nakheel property subsidiary is also a puzzle.

Abu Dhabi stumped up $10bn in February; two of its banks bought $5bn in Dubai paper on Wednesday [NB: see quote above]; a $1.9bn bond issue was three times subscribed three weeks ago; and Dubai is planning to return to the market next month for a further $1.25bn. It has the money to meet its obligations – unless its debts are significantly greater than stated. Until now, moreover, there has never been any doubt that Abu Dhabi – senior partner and censorious older brother in the federal United Arab Emirates, owner of the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world (worth perhaps $900bn), and sitting on one tenth of the world’s oil deposits – would stand behind Dubai. Dubai World’s biggest creditors, furthermore, are down the road in Abu Dhabi.

Yet, the Abu Dhabi authorities appear to have had no inkling Dubai was going to spring this surprise, which is already having devastating results. The cost of protecting Dubai’s paper against default has quadrupled – putting the emirate in the same league as Iceland – and the credit ratings of its leading companies have been downgraded. Yet the fallout in raising the cost of insuring sovereign debt has spread not only across the Gulf but throughout emerging markets. This is a mess.

Something here does not add up. Why would Dubai risk such damage to its reputation when the recovery of its still viable entrepôt model depends on the confidence of the capital markets?

The answers are doubtless found not on the capital markets, bond traders in London and New York are oft useful dupes...

There is also an interesting set of questions about the Islamic finance angle to this, and a rather misplaced bit of confidence in those instruments.

Continue reading "Dubia, oh My III: Ongoing thoughts."

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November 27, 2009

Dubai oh my, Bis Default & Logic

Obviously in financial and economic circles the debates are raging like nobody's business on
(i) The technical default (or effectively asking for it, even as an optional choice, it is a "credit event"), why
(ii) Timing and thinking

So far, I think everyone feels that it must be driven by some serious dissension between the Dubai and Abu Dhabi families, and Al Maktoum decided to go nuclear (probably rather than pay a serious pound of flesh in lost assets to Abu Dhabi). A "My pain is your pain" calculation. Also they seem to have bizarrely thought that this news could be "buried" over the holidays - very bad miscalculation. Trying to bury it (maybe buying time) after spending the past few weeks talking happy talk (rather than managing down expectations) just made it far worst, as the rumours flying now are really catastrophic.

Of course, a deeper problem may be that Emirates in whole may be more liquidity constrained than they have let on, and as such Abu Dhabi despite its massive pools of capital, feels obliged to bargain hard for its constrained liquidity to begin with. Nevertheless, I favour the Family Argument thesis (between Dubai and Abu Dhabi) that got bitter, thus provoking a stunningly ill-considered decision that was also just stunningly poorly framed and timed.... and presented. Impressive actually the extent of bad actually.

As for Dubai, even if they walk back, Dubai has inexplicably taken a shotgun and fired at its own foot. Best case, they lose some of their own toes, worst case.... worst case they blew off their foot and ours too as this has all the ability to set off Financial Crisis 2008 Part II, at the very least for emerging markets that are heavily exposed to international flows.

This is a nasty event with wider implications, but underlines what I have been saying for years, too much of the Emirates - Dubai story has been of dubious transparency.

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Dubai, my my. Defaults and MENA

I've been silent for a while, consumed with the rather unpleasant task of wrapping up an office (whose staff is mystefied by the exit, as they did better than forecast numbers, but that's another story), however Dubai's staggeringly stupid decision to suggest defaulting on debt
has too much juice to miss, in particular as I am in Dubai right at this very moment (although flying out very shortly). It's really quite a stunned place, and I think except the boot-lickers who'll justify anything, there is much befuddlement. Adding more later.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:24 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 22, 2009

Chickens, Dubai, roosting

As I am not a neutral observer, I can only pass this along with a raised eye brow FT.com  - Dubai ousts financial chief over debt troubles

While these guys are not my world - in fact I get to gleefully ignore them usually (operationally)- the news does bring a small bit of schadenfreunde
but that is mitigated by the fact that am spending much time fllying in my empire(sic) to shut down things.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:36 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 05, 2009

Dubai labour exploitation (FT: Hidden victims)

An interesting and sad arty from FT on Dubai's seamy underside: FT.com  - Dubai’s hidden victims of recession, of which the truly unpleasant part is the  ongoing practise - which should never be permitted in any modern country - of taking workers passports (by the employer). A slaving mentality Dubai has never quite gotten over.
 

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October 27, 2009

Algeria, still pining for those 1970s glory days (State Industrial Policy, Mass Unemployment, Riots, etc)

Writing from Algiers, which has been of late some public disorder  (not to the original post which I can't access for some reason), and amusingly (if one is a person like myself) explored in background by our Moor Next Door in a post deliciously entitled “The State is an ostrich” « The Moor Next Door I shall prudently not tackle the fine expressions of public discontent with the Ostrich State and President Comb Over, which have been somewhat discernible from my hotel... (although did solve the traffic problem for a day or two). (Also this article)

Rather, I shall be ostentatiously apolitical, and amuse myself with the Ostrich State's new effort to "revitalise" its moribund state enterprises to build a bright new future (for contrabandiers to be sure), Algeria plans aid to debt-swamped state-owned firms (Magharebia.com)  (oooh, and with foreign parternships too!!):

Continue reading "Algeria, still pining for those 1970s glory days (State Industrial Policy, Mass Unemployment, Riots, etc)"

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Saudis complain of American legacy in transport

I found this sourly amusing, from FT.com / Transport - Saudis stuck in a jam over public transport 

Many Americans blame Saudis for the price of petrol needed to fill their SUVs and motor homes. But Saudis have their own complaint: they hold American contractors who helped build their road networks responsible for the traffic congestion and lack of efficient public transport.

“American builders of Riyadh modelled it after Los Angeles, with highways and big roads, but with no plan for public transportation,” says Salwa, a businesswoman in Riyadh. “The government just woke up to the importance of trains for linking cities after thousands of Saudis and pilgrims have been killed on those highways. But they are doing nothing about easing traffic in Riyadh or other cities.” ... The need for public transport has become urgent. With hundreds of thousands of cars and taxis, a 15-minute trip to downtown Riyadh can take more than 45 minutes during rush-hour. When people go shopping and dining in the evening, cars on the main roads slow to a standstill. .... Experts say low petrol prices, low-wage drivers, and Saudi and expatriate preferences for buying large cars create disincentives for building public transport. Almost 1m new vehicles are imported to Saudi Arabia each year, half of which are private cars, says John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi.
 

Emphasis added. American sprawl legacy, actually Saudi complaints in this area are probably rather more founded than American complaints about petrol prices, although the Saudis could have opted for proper urban planning, but America was seductive in the 1960s.

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September 18, 2009

Cairo: Faded Glory.... Quixotic quests for restoration

FT's profile on Cairo, and reviving it's downtown, at FT.com  Investors seek to revive faded glory of Cairo (and as well the video commentary here
FT.com / Video & Audio / Audio slideshows - Resurrecting the Paris of the Orient (ahem, I believe that was Beirut, but...)) is interesting for a reflexion on the damage bad governance has done to Arab economies and civic areas. When I lived in Cairo I tried doing downtown as I adore art deco, but the hell of the constant din made it unlivable. Refurbishing buildings is not enough, mastering the insanity that is Cairo traffic, reducing traffic pressure is an absolute must. Of course, like Algeria, Cairo is a living testament to what the incoherence of "Arab Socialism" can do to an economy and its socio-economic fabric.

But as to the renovation plans, frankly I think it is tilting at windmills unless the orderliness is restored, and that seems impossible given the incompetence of the Egyptian regime. Sheer bad governance (and yes, the Egyptian regime is good at keeping itself in power, but that is not good governance) and general economic incompetence (although recent reforms, since 2001 or so are slowly starting to convince me that there is an exit from the Arab Socialism thinking, at least Egypt shows now more signs of clearer thinking and planning than the cretins running Algeria).

BTW, I did not know the American Uni had shut its downtown campus. Pity that. Such things are historical anchors.

(An aside, In Lounsbury some recent economics related rants re Algeria: on speaking Truth to Le Pouvoir; and on conducting jihad against rational economic policyl.

FT after the break:

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September 12, 2009

Algerian Autarky, Bis: Bad Economic Policy & General Govt Incoherence

I have been meaning to return to the fine issue of the Algerian Government's turn toward an incoherent revival of old 1970s style socialist economic nationalism, and the Moor Next Door gave me a new excuse in Some Algeria stuff , to rip a paragraph out:

Hanoune’s “opposition” since April has been in the form of, as La Tribune puts it, “applauding recent government actions,” and then stating depressing facts about the country’s economic conditions. This has become so much the case even the official El Moudjahid was so moved by her remarks on the recent supplementary budget law that it felt it necessary to publish an entire article on her, quoting her, in effect thanking her, for supporting the government’s undertaking. Indeed, El Moudjahid’s favorite bits from Hanoune’s recent comments were her description of the law as “a large, bold victory for the national economy” and that she “questioned the reactions of some” to the new law, e.g. other quarters of the opposition and business classes. 
(emphasis added)

Louisa Hanoune is a hard Left opposition figure in Algeria, btw, as linked to Wiki (rather poor article). Of course the interim law is anything but a victory. Hurried and incoherent, it merely adds to the growing impression that the Algerian government is entirely at sea as to where it is going. Worth reference as well, Jeuneafrique.com: Algérie : une rentrée et des questions which gives the context of clumsy panic over its declining margins of petrol and gas profits over import costs, insofar as a decade of policy incoherence has produced what one might expect, that is the hydrocarbons rentier economy chugs along while the state strangles the private sector. But the context:

[NB: edited for formatting and some spelling 14 Sep 09]

Continue reading "Algerian Autarky, Bis: Bad Economic Policy & General Govt Incoherence"

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September 09, 2009

Dubai Debt Analysis

Middle East Economic Digest has an interesting arty on the UAE/ Dubai debt problem, Dubai needs long-term plan to tackle the debt mountain which is worth a read and a comment (I had a little note The UAE Real Estate Ice Berg on this at Lounsbury).

Continue reading "Dubai Debt Analysis"

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September 07, 2009

Ibn Kafka on Libya and Morocco

An interesting little note from Ibn Kafka on the Mor-Libyan "misunderstanding" Kadhafi humilie le Maroc – quelle sera la réaction marocaine? 
(French of course)

A quick comment on one tiny item in this long post, on the paragraph(s) recapping the list of Libyan economic interests and investment in Morocco (including in W. Sahara region...):

Les paradoxes ne manquent pas, et la seule chose qui est sûre c’est que tant le Maroc et l’Algérie se tromperaient à prêter un quelconque crédit aux revirements incessants de la Libye, qui semble ces dernières années fonctionner surtout en fonction de ses intérêts économiques.

While I think Bou Kafka is right that Morocco and Algeria are foolish to put much weight on any given (emphemeral) Libyan policy or position (relative to any subject really), I don't believe one can propose that Libyan policy functions "above all in function of its economic interests." Occasionally, yes, but above all? Or perhaps, the only potential coherent line is a favouring of economic interests, although without particularly being consistent.

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September 03, 2009

Algeria: No Poor People

A delicious item to note as I work on a follow up on my Algeria Autarky post (and related incoherent economic policy), from Maghreb Politics Review
the fine declaration that there are “No poor people in Algeria” as our friend Alle notes

Here’s a whopper: Algeria’s Religious Affairs Minister Bouabdellah Ghoulamallah has claimed on state radio that “there are no poor people in Algeria”. Referring to how some 1,5 m Algerians vacation in Tunisia every year, and hundreds of thousands of others go to Hajj or Omra in Saudi Arabi, he said that the talk of poverty is just a “media invention”. Needless to say, this will be news to the legions of unemployed and desperately poor Algerians who struggle to make ends meet, and it is an excellent example of the “hogra”, high-handed neglect and spite from the authorities, which the Algerians resent so much.

For the record, Algeria last year ranked 104th on the UNDP’s Human Development Index, below the Arab average, and just slightly above the Occupied Palestinian Territories — this, after several years of a record-breaking oil bonanza.

Mind you, this is not a one off delusion. I have had on more than one occasion in the past decade had to listen to Algerian officials ranting on to similar effect, as in their thinking while there are some small things to iron out relative to their fine petro-socialism, the common Algeria has obviously benefited. Except for those haraga wreckers but they deserve it, scum that they are.

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August 24, 2009

Maghreb, MENA: What standards' for progress & development

Following on an interesting discussion in comments in reaction to this 'Aqoul post: Some old controversies: Morocco & Models, and Bloggy overreaction and preciousness I thought I would bring forward some of the questions posed for further discussion.

The essentials rest on how to assess progress in the Maghreb (and MENA of late).

As noted in the discussion (copied at end of post, below the jump), reform has certainly slacked of late in Morocco, but against what benchmark should we judge this?

Some other questions, items for consideration:

1. Quality of Governance
2. Tension between Technocratic Reform led by business leaders, and capture of government reform by oligarchs (who happen as well to be good technocrats)
3. Economic Reforms & Untouched Oligopolies
   
4. The State of Educational Reform
5. Pushing out / deepening progress to reach the Great Inland areas
6. Affordability of life in the transition
   
7. Next steps in consolidating growth
   

Continue reading "Maghreb, MENA: What standards' for progress & development"

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August 19, 2009

Algeria Woos Tourism Investment.... I can only await the successes.

I do so love the Algeria government, it's magnificent incoherence. After bizarrely and abruptly banning consumer credit, now we come out with a tax advantage for investment in tourism (what tourism - I exclude overseas returnees from Tourism proper, they don't generally use much in the way of proper tourism facilities: Algeria woos investors to unlock tourism potential   

Where to start on the fabulous, magnificent fuzzy thinking?

Algeria announced on Monday it was slashing taxes on tourism projects to persuade investors that the country, emerging from years of violence, could become a hot new holiday destination.

Indeed.  Hot new holiday destination. Sunny & Bomby Algeria. Experience the thrills of Old American West Ambushes on your convoy. Possible extended side visits to the Sahara for brief 'kidnapping' interludes with jocular desert tribes....

Continue reading "Algeria Woos Tourism Investment.... I can only await the successes."

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August 17, 2009

XRef: Egypt as Multilingual Outsourcing Destination

A quick cross reference for thos interested in MENA Business specifics: Lounsbury: Egypt as Multilinual Outsourcing Destination, Well I'll be bugered As I note, the FT.com arty Egypt invests in outsourcing industry raised me eyebrows. Wonders of capitalist development, even socialist basket-case education systems can be leveraged now and again: a pool of otherwise unemployable university graduates with useless degrees, but reasonable language skills to draw on if one is willing to train them up

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August 13, 2009

Algeria: little steps to autarky?

Now that the Algerian govenrment has taken such very clever moves as banning consumer credit and rendering imports stunningly difficult by imposing highly unfavourable credit / financing terms on importers (except some privledged exceptions) perhaps this little deal will work: Abu Dhabi fund plans Algeria auto plants

Continue reading "Algeria: little steps to autarky?"

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August 05, 2009

Algiers, Chinese, Algerians riot

I confess to being somewhat startled to read this news brief of a riot between Algerians and Chinese in a working class district Shanaoua, however it is not in the end surprising given the underlying resentment around the mass import of Chinese labour for the government's various infrastructure programmes. The report indicates as many as 50 Chinese got into "bloody" fight with Algerians.
Al Arab Online العرب اونلاين

قالت صحف جزائرية إن مواجهات وصفتها بـ"الدامية" وقعت الإثنين بين أكثر من 50 صينيا مقيمين بحي "الشناوة" "تعبير دارج يعني الصينيين" بباب الزوار بالعاصمة الجزائرية والسكان قاطني الحي بسبب مناوشة وقعت بين تاجر جزائري وآخر صيني، وأسفرت عن بعض الجرحى وخسائر في الممتلكات.

More shortly.

Well, BBC now has this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/arabic/middleeast/2009/08/090805_mr_algeria_china_tc2.shtml and FT too! http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a74efac2-8177-11de-92e7-00144feabdc0.html

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August 02, 2009

Algeria: Expropriations & Import Substitution, Just Because it worked so well in the 1970s

A cross post to a longer note in Lounsbury: Prompted by the advert next to the article cited (which was is an advert for the sale of a small import-export operation), a small reflexion on Algerian economic politics and policy, insofar as Algeria - no doubt thanks to The Lead Comb-Over, is bizarrely unearthing the import substitution and nationalisation measures of the 1970s as its lead economic policy reaction to ongoing problems.

The "Why" of course is mixed. Absolute incomprehension of market economics and operations is certainly a major factor, as is the regime's paranoia in general another, and specific national paranoia regarding foreigners after the French experience - which remains terribly damaging, in particular for the generations over ~45 years old.

This article, from the Francophone Africa focused business weekly, Les Afriques (Eng. Trans: Algeria: Changing the Rules of the Foreign Investment Game - The question on everyone’s lips this summer illustrates. The article cites (and my own connections would suggest the article is right in part, a reaction to "non approved" operations, such as Orascom selling its cement stake to Lafarge (as part of a global deal, not Algeria specific actually). Now, in most places in the world this would be a matter of a bored shrug.

The Algerian government, however, freaked (why?...), and phrases such as this that the journalist used are very much from the Algerian officialdom's own public and private view of markets: "the Algerian president seems to have realised that the rules of globalised capitalism left the door ajar for an international group to sneak in and, without the State’s consent, claim a share in the national market and economy. ... The Algerian president discovered only too late the predatory characteristics of foreign investment and gave economists and entrepreneurs the last laugh when they warned that it was illusory to expect to boost the economy using direct foreign investment (DFI) [sic]." That is very much the language and thinking of a paranoid, quasi Soviet regime, lacking in confidence. The remainder of the article is pure Algerian regime thinking, including the focus on foreigners bleeding the country dry (with billions in public FX reserves, even the state can't find a way to intelligently invest capital given opportunities, of course dividends are being repatriated...).

It is worth noting the argument of "Algerian entrepreneurs" is the argument of the old Rentier Regime owners - hardly people meriting the term entrepreneur in any real sense of the term. These are firm owners from the first round of "Algerianisation" and then the subsequent emergence of a private sector that was (with some exceptions of course) nothing more than an appendage to a dysfunctional state sector.

Returning to the concrete, notable recent policy decisions in this area are Presidential Decrees from December 08 which have moved to implementation by year end 09:
(i) forcing all foreign firms involved in import operations to retroactively cede 30% of assets to an Algerian partner (on what basis the percentage is valued, what happens in case of capital raising, and how to reconcile this retro-active measure with the Investment Law and Algeria's engagements with respect to FDI remains charmingly unclear - indeed brushed aside by the Algerian government which continues to show a rather impoverished understanding of economics and private markets),
(ii) Obliging all future foreign investment (ahem for the time being, future, it is not unimaginable for it to become retroactive like the exporters measure) to be 51% Algerian in capital ownership.

More Discussion at Lounsbury

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July 31, 2009

Subtle Items to Follow re Gulf Long Term Development.

The following article seems quite tedious. In fact it is a step in an interesting denouement, and should be real signals as to whether the Gulf is really developing or is merely a oil and gas financed mirage:

FT.com  Bahrain central bank intervenes

Bahrain's central bank said yesterday it had taken control of two Bahrain-based banks owned by two prominent Saudi companies that are locked in a dispute as they struggle with financial difficulties

Oddly five years ago I had rather more faith in Dubai and Bahrain. It's queer, the oil boom that fuelled the past few years of development significant damaged my expectations almost in line with the degree to which they captured Global Market attention. Let me first say that if you are Hot Money investor (i.e. a trader) and are clued in enough to be right on top of regional developments (clued in meaning not that you're clever with your maths and are a Zawya subscriber, etc, but that you have the right personal connections etc to have a sense of what is behind the published infos - short term [i.e. less than 5 yr holding period] trading in MENA on published information is a loser's game).

I rather think that there is no long term win in the Gulf, no real diversification. Dubai can not be Singapore because its back-region is too weak (although if Iran does not shape up, Dubai as Iran's Hong Kong can work - but Dubai as Saudi Arabia / Emirates / Kuwait Singapore is a failure: no matter what the gulf does, it is unsustainable post-oil, nothing relative to climate trends nor own native competences nor other factors suggests they can overcome). And generally if you are looking at a longish term, I think reforming 'real' countries like Syria or farther along reformers in the Maghreb, or Turkey or potentials like Iran are far, far better bets. As would be a country like Oman, insofar as if Oman, even at this late date, decided to create (and do right) a mini Dubai, it would easily capture the Dubai Asia traffic and be a better geographical partner for Iran and the Asian traffic. Pity really, Oman is leaving mega money on the table as they are perfectly placed to do Dubai, but better insofar as Dubai has proved the model can work - I do not mean here the flashy towers, but the trade and finance logistics. The flashy towers and the last 4 years of frenzy were a gross mistake for Dubai, one that they will pay dearly for in the long term.

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July 30, 2009

The Gulf, Looking for more marks in Real Estate

In some ways I adore the chutzpah of mortgage lenders in Dubai, the Emirates somewhat more broadly. In the face of what is really an obvious bubble crash, journos can still get old school quotes: FT.com: Gulf Mortgage lenders await upturn

“Until recently, the real estate markets were a one-way street where prices always went up,” says Ventakesh Srikantan, head of assets and liabilities at HSBC Middle East. “But now we are witnessing a serious property downturn and credit stresses are emerging in many portfolios.”

Property analysts are partially blaming a lack of finance for the subdued real estate market. Bankers, counter that credit is available for the right buyers, but say they have few takers in the face of uncertain economic prospects and declining real estate values.

However, bankers and analysts agree that the mortgage market still represents a vital growth segment for financial institutions in the Gulf, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where most people do not own their own homes.

There is some truth to the Saudi angle on buying homes, but how much they are willing to go for.... And as for encouraging more RE investment:

Most governments are updating their regulatory architecture, keen to encourage investment in their real estate sectors and boost home ownership among less affluent locals.

There needs to be LESS real estate investment, not more, although if (and I do not think for a moment it really does) said investment were aimed at affordable housing, well that could make some sense.

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April 25, 2009

Economic Crisis & Stability: Maghreb and MENA Frings, the end of the Emigration Boom

Two articles not immediately evidently related, but speaking to similar issues. That is the impact of the global financial crisis on the emigrant populations from the MENA and MENA Fringe to either wealthy regions or Europe. The article on the Spanish situation suggests there could be a significant reflux back, but Europe differs from the Gulf example - the FT arty on the Pakis - in that the immigrant communities are older, many have permanent residency that is not employment connected (Gulfie style disguised indentured servitude).

As Jobs Die, Europe’s Migrants Head Home - NYTimes.com

That changed in the decade-long expansion that began in the late 1990s. In Spain, where the growth has been the most explosive, the foreign population rose to 5.2 million last year out of a total of 45 million people from 750,000 in 1999, according to the National Statistics Institute. Ireland’s population, now 4.1 million, was also transformed, with the percentage of foreign-born residents rising to 11 percent in 2006 from 7 percent in 2002.

“In the U.S., it took generations to build up a foreign-born population of that size,” said Demetrios Papademetriou, head of the Migration Policy Institute, a research group in Washington. “These countries have done it at an unprecedented rate, but the society and institutions haven’t even begun to have a chance to catch up.”

FT.com - Hard homecoming for Pakistan’s expatriates

The downturn in the Middle East is forcing large numbers of Pakistani expatriate workers to return home, exchanging lives of comfort for unemployment in a country experiencing political turmoil, growing insecurity and a deteriorating economy.

Those coming back from the oil-rich region range from senior and mid-career staff in banks, consumer goods companies and multinationals, to blue-collar workers such as drivers, labourers and domestic servants.

The financial crisis is reversing a trend of large-scale migration from Asia to the Middle East, especially from countries such as India, the Philippines, China and Thailand.

Continue reading "Economic Crisis & Stability: Maghreb and MENA Frings, the end of the Emigration Boom"

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Al Qaeda fil Maghreb & Generally: Oil facilties as a strategy.

A brief note on potential for Al Qaeda to target oil facilities: Al Qaeda & Oil Facilities in the Midst of the Global Economic Crisis
One item that caught the eye:

. Moreover, observers have noticed the increasing targeting of facilities and workers in the oil and gas sector in Algeria by the so-called “al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb”.

I am not sure this is in fact all that much the case.

Otherwise, the conclusion:

Conclusion

As mentioned above, Bin Laden’ said in 2004 that oil prices should reach $150 per barrel. Legitimizing the targeting oil pipelines, refineries or workers rather than the wells themselves suggests that raising oil prices is a strategy Salafi-jihadists are adopting. In the shadow of bin Laden’s threat of "opening new fronts for the attrition of the economy of the West", it seems that such understanding is not limited to the Middle East only. The African continent is becoming an increasingly important for the diversification of oil production and transportation, as well as is the Caspian Sea region which is critical for diversification of oil resources to the West. However the risk of targeting oil interests, is not confined to certain geographical locations, as it’s associated with a strategy of opening “new fronts”.

According to this understanding, it seems that the targeting of oil facilities by al-Qaeda or affiliated Salafi-jihadists is designed to affect the flow of oil leading to higher fuel prices in the midst of a global economic cris

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April 20, 2009

Algeria: Mr. Comb Over & The Mee Too Container Terminal - Basic Reforms, Rents & Opportunities.

I should be less unkind, but frankly the awful hell that is required of one on every bloody business trip to Algiers (and having just returned from one), makes me disinclined.

Nevertheless, Algeria's copycat (okay not entirely copy cat) development of its port, following what appears to be a successful Moroccan operation at Tangamed has positive potential. FT's arty on DPW "vow[ing] to remodel Algiers port might even be a ray of hope in the otherwise bleak Algerian business landscape.

Might, of course being a powerfully operative word, as I have developed a highly jaundiced view over the years of promises of reform in Algeria. Some key details. [Ahem fixed the title]

Continue reading "Algeria: Mr. Comb Over & The Mee Too Container Terminal - Basic Reforms, Rents & Opportunities."

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April 14, 2009

MENA Futures, investing in good infrastructure (Morocco)

From the FT, two articles touching on probably the single most important item for turning around the Maghreb. Investment in good, solid infrastructure run by private firms. FT.com / Global Economy - Spanish port faces threat from Tangier

Mr Kjeldsen is using the threat to challenge the complacency in Algeciras that stems from more than 20 years with a monopoly of handling containers in the Gibraltar Strait. APM Terminals, its trade unions and the public sector port authority that owns the port land must work together to improve efficiency, he says. “Otherwise it’s going to be very difficult to be competitive with Morocco.”

APM Terminals declines to discuss how much it pays workers on either side of the strait, but average wages in Morocco are about $4,000 (€3,018, £2,688) a year. Those in Spain are about $14,500.

And the companion arty: FT.com Tangier hopes rest on customs ‘freezone’

It is a long way in every sense from the green hillside location of Tangier’s container terminals to the patch of desert that has become Dubai’s huge Jebel Ali port. But the developers of the Tangier-Med port complex have taken much of their inspiration from the Gulf facility.

Their hopes of emulating the success of Jebel Ali, which last year was the world’s sixth-busiest container port, rest on an area behind the terminals set aside for manufacturing and distribution developments.

Getting things right is boring (and not as much fun as declaring that foreign investors are parasites robbing the nation as the new Pasha for Life, Sidi Comb Over likes to do....), but it is the way to go.

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April 13, 2009

The Wonderful Magic of War Zone Microfinance - Iraq

Following my short note in Lounsbury 'next door' a longer comment on the' FT arty "Small US loans are catalyst for Iraqi business"


First, on the item that most irritated on reading

“I have increased my earnings and improved my family’s quality of life,” says Hamza Abid Ali, a grape-grower from Balad who has quintupled his income since taking out a $2,400 (€2,200, £2,000) loan from the Al-Baydaa Centre, a US-backed microcredit scheme. “I was earning only 500,000 dinars [$432, €322, £292] from each donam [unit of land] on my vineyard,” says Mr Ali, a 33-year-old father of three.“But with my loan, I bought a water pump and some netting to go over the top of the grapes, and now I am making 4m dinars per donam.”

Emphasis added: Having read my share of Donor AgitProp, this sort of repetitiously canned donor-lang. gets under my skin. It is positively formulaic.

In particular as the one-off examples say fuck-all about eventual longer financing stability or economic impact (although of course the examples are intended for audiences that would not understand the same).

In any event, micro-credit is so bloody fashionable that it is hard to sort out real results from fashionable spin. I do confess, however, there is some impact, although I personally tend to find it to be more along the lines of "poverty maintenance" rather than the sort of investment and financing that can create long-term and real sustained wealth growth. Not that poverty maintenance does not have its place, in particular in corrupt systems where the longer run growth investment prospects are .... constrained shall we say? There poverty maintenance may be simply the best choice available.

Regardless, the background

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April 12, 2009

Dubai Roosting

FT.com / Middle East - Former minister faces charges in Dubai

Mohammed bin Kharbash is to be sent to trial after an investigation into events at Deyaar, the real estate unit of Dubai Islamic Bank. .... Mr bin Kharbash, the former chairman of Deyaar, had allegedly helped Zach Shahin, the developer’s former chief executive, to seize company money. Mr Shahin, a US national detained by Dubai’s authorities last year, will also face charges of alleged bribe-taking. Trials have already started against other executives at Dubai Islamic Bank, in which the government holds a 30 per cent stake, as well as developers such as Sama Dubai, part of the Dubai Holding conglomerate.

Sama Dubai btw has some non trivial issues.

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April 07, 2009

Just giving the Algerian people another shot at expressing their gratitude to Mr Comb Over

A fine arty in Middle East Report Online Introducing Algeria’s President-for-Life by Ahmed Aghrout and Yahia H. Zoubir - focused on the upcoming... "elections."
I personally like Bouteflika's declaration "I propose nothing new, but I promise a strong and peaceful Algeria (Jeune Afrique 5-11 avril) for its charming bluntness and honesty.... well except maybe the strong and peaceful part. But certainly nothing new!

The economy remains dependent on hydrocarbon revenues -- exports outside this sector represent a paltry 2 percent of the total. The official rate of unemployment is close to 15 percent, which explains why candidate Bouteflika has promised the creation of 3 million jobs within five years if he is reelected. He claims to have brought unemployment down from more than 30 percent in 1999 to 12 percent in 2008, but no one outside the regime considers this figure credible, and true unemployment is certainly much more widespread than the state says. Domestic and foreign investment faces tall hurdles, while the banking sector remains quasi-archaic. Most of the infrastructure projects of which Bouteflika boasts have been plagued by delays as well as waste.

Tall hurdles indeed, for FDI. You'd have to be bloody retarded to invest in Algeria now given Comb Over thinks Presidential decrees forbidding foreigners from owning more than 49% of firms and blocking previously agreed on dividend repatriation. And those charming speeches about foreigners robbing Algeria... Mmmm, indeed its the foreigners robbing.

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April 06, 2009

The charming vapidness of Gulf journalism.

Gulf Expats to stay put

Many expatriate workers across the Middle East see no reason to leave their country of residence during this present economic crisis, said a survey conducted by Bayt.com, a leading job site in the region

Bayt of course is pimping its services (and given its cost structure, whistling in the wind).

I really love Gulf journalism - in English or Arabic, it manages to be pure PR driven vapidness.

Which makes me think of FT's note Dubai turns to PR to revive its image

Dubai has appointed London public relations group Finsbury to handle its financial communications strategy as the city state seeks to head off negative media coverage of its troubled economy.

Ah yes. Head off negative media coverage. Insolvency is merely an item to be spun.

Well, supposing, Dubai's restructuring of its debt bloated corporations goes well, it might just somewhat work. However, one can observe that much of the Dubai linked work (much, but not all) in North Africa has ground to a halt with hidden insolvencies ... technical delays seem to be the favoured excuse.

As an aside, this is mildly amusing as an indicator of its own black-box nature biting it in the ass:

Set up in 2006, the holding company grew in importance as officials realised that the various wings of Dubai Inc – including Dubai World, Dubai Holding and the government – had been raising debt unilaterally, leaving them in the dark about the true extent of the emirate’s liabilities.

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April 05, 2009

Islamic Finance & Global Crises

The FT has a good comment on Islamic Finance:Islamic finance must resolve inner tensions. Notably the facile fashion of it being a solution to the current financial crisis.

A small idea is developing into a big hope in the Middle East. It is that the answer to the global financial crisis lies in Islamic finance.

Proponents of the $800bn industry argue that the prohibition on dealing in interest has saved Islamic institutions, preventing them from investing in all the dubious structures that have brought down high-flying international institutions.

One cheerleader for Islamic finance is Humayon Dar, chief executive officer of BMB Islamic, a subsidiary of The BMB Group, the global alternative asset management company. He says he was starting to worry about his job at the end of last year because of the changing economic climate.

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March 29, 2009

Is Tunis the New Dubai on the Mediterranean?

Is Tunis the New Dubai on the Mediterranean? - Middle East Times

However, not so far away, the Tunisian economy is telling a different story. Both the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 have bought good news for Tunisia's business climate; all the sectors that have previously been synonymous with investment in Dubai are now being referenced to this small North African country: tourism, manufacturing, services, etc.

The answer is no. Horrible, lazy and dumb journo "Is X the next Y"....

Now, leaving aside the idiotic comparison with Dubai - profoundly idiotic on many levels - there is a bit of a story in the beneifical competition on the World Bank ranking for ease of Doing Business. This has proven a great tool, insofar as the ranking motivates the egos of the Ben Alis.

What I find most queer about the article as it sees as 'good' the worst comparative points - that is real estate hype - with Dubai. When one sees that kind of hype, one knows its utter tripe.

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March 23, 2009

Dubai, Bye Bye?: Guardian Lumps Gulf City's Fate with Detroit

Simon Jenkins at The Guardian declares prognosis negative on the ultimate fate of Dubai, which he has slated to be the Detroit of the Middle East, only worse, and largely on an architectural basis. My gut and a brief impression there in real time tend to disagree. But folks with real data and experience are out there. (UPDATE: One of our Aqoul circle opines differently from Jenkins here (disclaimer, author didn't write the overenthusiastic tite). And now, for the Dubai-curious. a bit of Jenkins below the break.

Continue reading "Dubai, Bye Bye?: Guardian Lumps Gulf City's Fate with Detroit"

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February 18, 2009

And in the realm of unsurprising, in a downturn, Emiratis can't be fired...

This I find simply amusing, in a vague sort of way:UAE to safeguard jobs of nationals

The United Arab Emirates labour ministry on Wednesday said it would regulate the dismissal of nationals working in the private sector, raising another level of protection around the local workforce as the ravages of the financial crisis cut deep into the Gulf state. ... Property and financial companies, especially in Dubai, have been shedding staff since the credit crunch triggered a real estate crash in the emirates. The gloom has spread to other previously vibrant sectors, such as tourism, .... private companies will only be able to dismiss UAE nationals for serious misconduct, including absenteeism, theft or drunkenness. The economic downturn will not be reason enough to make Emirati staff redundant. .... One human resources officer, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue, said the move could affect the flexibility of employers and hurt Dubai’s competitiveness.

Ah well, the great subsidized Real Estate Scheme pretending to be shopping tourism wasn't really competitive regardless. Dubai is fucked into a cocked hat.

Nevertheless, they haven't gotten to the Algerian level of plain idiocy yet. More on that tomorrow.

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February 12, 2009

Dubai: Hype does not in fact immunise

Having taken a rather sceptical view of Dubai for a while, and been disgusted with, e.g. the FT allowing itself to print arties re Dubai & Gulf insulated from the global storms, I have taken some sour pleasure in this: Laid-Off Foreigners Flee as Dubai Spirals Down as well as the earlier Times arty on the same phenomena. Worth a ponder as to impact, I rather suspect that the Dubai black box shall have to be substantially unwound.

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November 23, 2008

Paternalism & Global Crisis, MENA Boom and ... Bust & the Nanny States

FT's Roula Khalaf, has a fine article on Gulf region paternalism, using the Kuwaiti example, on the stresses of the Petrol States as oil pricing collapses with global demand, and their nanny state traditions catch up. In discussion directly, Kuwaitis asking for the Government to prop up the stock markets.

Continue reading "Paternalism & Global Crisis, MENA Boom and ... Bust & the Nanny States"

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October 29, 2008

Seeders of Lebanon? Local Banking System Stability Noted

This NY Times article (may need to register) reports that Lebanon has remarkably stable and well-capitalized banks. In the midst of global turmoil in finance, they have eschewed speculative investments in favor of storing high levels of deposits. This stability has begun to attract hedge funds from outside. But to the untutored observer here, the article leaves open a simpler question -- how do the Lebanese banks make money (i.e. where do they lend for profit)? It appears that the banks are looking to branch out to several neighboring places (e.g.Bank Audi in other Arab lands), but there is little in the article to indicate they do much more than serve as safe places for deposit and as transfer agents for expatriate and diaspora inbound remittances (not that there's anything wrong with that, it's safe and presumably safely profitable via use fees, if any etc.). Otherwise the banks service some of the national debt of $45 billion. Are they simply giant vaults or seeders of a better future? Or might it be both?

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September 30, 2008

Marshall Plan vs Iraq War: Costs

Another trivia about costs: Several sources indicate the war in Iraq has cost about $550 billion so far. Comparatively, the Marshall Plan which helped repel communism in Western Europe by bringing prosperity and stability there, cost $13 billion, which in today’s money is equivalent to anywhere between $100 and $750 billion. Applicability of such a plan in MENA today vs. post war Europe?

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September 26, 2008

Cost of the Arab Economic Boycott on Israel

I used to think the Arab Economic Boycott was useless, as in ineffective and mostly unimplementable (laws that can’t be implemented shouldn’t exist, period). Now, I came across this research article, “The Effect of the Arab Boycott on Israel: The Automobile Market”:

Recent progress towards a comprehensive peace in the Middle East has led to a relaxation of the enforcement of the Arab economic boycott of Israel. This in turn has led to the entry of all the major Japanese and Korean automobile manufacturers into the Israeli market. In this paper, we examine the effect of the Arab economic boycott on this market. Using recent advances in estimating discrete-choice models of product differentiation, we estimate that had the boycott continued, the welfare loss per purchaser would have been approximately $1940 in 1995. This benefit can be interpreted as a peace dividend. Since approximately 113,000 new automobiles were sold in 1995, the welfare gain to consumers was more than $219 million that year.

Which makes me view it in a different light. If that was just for the automobile market, then it was definitely not stupid. Doesn’t change my opinion, which is well known in Aqoul, that Arabs should just turn their back on Israel until they can actually do something about it, meaning even in the light of this information, it shouldn’t be their top priority – but it does change the judgment on the quality of the boycott.

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September 21, 2008

As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA

Well, as we watch the United States nationalise its financial system in fits and starts, rather like the quasi emerging market it has become (I should note that I was amused to read comment somewhere regarding Central Banking and best practice, now that the US central bank has become the handmaiden of its finanance ministry. So much for all that independence talk they've spent the last decade pimping), a moment to look at MENA.

I suppose the Americans can say little about Iran's Gov booting a too uppity Gov of the Cen. Bank, not that one should expect particularly rational comment on Iran from the US at present, regardless.

I must say that the GCC going ahead with the monetary union preps surprised me slightly, insofar as its strikes me their interests are rather divergent at present in terms of policy.... but draft plans and actual execution are not something the Gulf is glued to by habit.

On perhaps the merely amusing side, Rush to the Gulf set to lower salaries speaks to the oversupply of bankers and doubts being expressed that the Gulf is really the boomtown(s) as presented. Dubai rather.... In the same manner, there is a nice set of items to talk about this week, if I get a chance, notably:

1. the first signs the Dubai et all Gulf Property Speculation Game is going to splot;
2. Capital flight can hit even the most well intentioned little financial black holes...even Dubai Land
3. But the oil gusher does allow for very high standards of National Poverty

Continue reading "As Rome burns, economic thoughts from MENA"

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September 04, 2008

Gulf: The Wonderful Lightness of Opacity - Corporate Gov

A bit of analysis of zero surprise to anyone who has done business in the area, but worthy of attention the FT's note - "The transparency shortfall" on lack of transparency in the Gulf.

While on one hand more transparency would be good, on the other hand, the real incentives in a liquidity drenched environment is pretty low. Without real incentives, mere pablum about raising more money from foreigners (why bother) isn't going to drive change. Of course in the medium term it's needed, but human nature is short-termist.

Otherwise, a further item of reflexion and debate:

Kuwaiti and Saudi companies, surprisingly, produced the lowest average scores. These longstanding trading cultures boast the region’s largest pools of liquidity, some of its most sophisticated investors and strong regulations.

One of the metrics used by the research is whether a company publishes annual reports in English. About a third of GCC companies do not, but that rises to 60 per cent in Kuwait and 68 per cent in Saudi Arabia – a large factor in their poor performance.

Companies that publish crucial corporate information in Arabic put a swathe of investors at a disadvantage, the researchers argue.

Leaving aside the idea it is "surprising" that Saudiyah and Kuwait are least transparent (certainly doesn't surprise me, what 'trading cultures' has to do with transparency rather escapes me (never mind the dodginess of the characterisation)., the probable debate point here is regarding use of English (by listed companies) in reporting.

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September 01, 2008

Let us praise Libyan craftiness and all the lessons learned from Italy

I confess no small degree of admiration for the Desert Hookah Smoker, my early childhood guide, Si Mouamar Gaddafi. this little bit is an act of piracy worthy of .... Rome I think

It's delicious, extorting equity:

In a tent outside Benghazi on Saturday, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's centre-right prime minister, returned a headless statue of Venus carted away by Italians decades ago and signed a friendship pact with Muammer Gaddafi, the Libyan leader.

The agreement, in which Italy pledges to pay $5bn (€3.4bn, £2.75bn) over 25 years in reparations through various projects - including a highway across Libya from Egypt to Tunisia - follows a decade of difficult negotiations under a succession of Italian governments.

Of course any pledge over 25 years by an Italian government should be discounted to present value using a discount rate appropriate to Italian finances, perhaps Medieval ones. Still, a win win - B Boy and the Guide get to bask in the PR of Large Numbers, and the Guide gets to pocket a decent amount of current exchange.

Almost as intriguing is is The Guide's "Extol[ing] virtues of capitalist reforms" as the FT arty puts it.
Well not quite:

Continue reading "Let us praise Libyan craftiness and all the lessons learned from Italy"

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August 24, 2008

MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?

Moving back MENA-ward, I add a rant inspired by long-time discussions here and elsewhere regarding investment in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. My amateur self keeps reading about Gulf or other money chasing things like real estate or hub port facilities, or digging out more of that Texas tea. Now, I hope I don't use too technical economic terms here, but here goes the rant: shouldn't the bulk of this fund dough, including money from superrich nations, be going towards activities where, you know, MENA regular folks will, like, MAKE NEW STUFF and then SELL THAT NEWLY-MADE STUFF TO OTHER PEOPLE for, um, HARD MONEY. That may sound a bit hi-falutin grad-school airy-fairy idealistic, development economics-y, but it needs to be said.

Continue reading "MENA Development and Investment: How 'bout just makin' stuff?"

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August 19, 2008

Waning Maximalism: Siren Syria

It is always difficult to evaluate the reality of Gulf investments - they are the vapour ware of the investment world, often announced, much less often delivered. However, this Gulf Times arty on Gulfie investment in Syria is nevertheless interesting taken in hand with the recent trips by US bankers, hat in hand, to the Gulf.

While not explicitly connected, there has been major damage to American reputation - and Western banks reputations I would add - in this last year and one can not but think Lebanese Presidents visiting Syria is a bit of realism that but four years ago would have been off the table.

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August 07, 2008

Nouakchott in the Dark: Mauretania Coup

Semi-Aqoulite alle on his blog provides background and details on Mauretania going coup coup. In comments by alle elsewhere on this site, he notes that "there goes the Arab world's most interesting experiment in democracy-by-coup."

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July 27, 2008

Water, Food & Petrol

Last week, as part of an ongoing series on the emerging issue of food price spikes and food security, the New York Times published an interesting article on Egyptian Ag industry and farming (although pretending to be an article about all MENA....

An interesting if typically journalistically shallow discussion. In general it highlighted why it is terribly difficult to be optimistic about Egypt's future, given an entirely screwed up economy (although yes liberalizing, although inflation and poor management threaten the gains - also this article at greater depth on the economy), and a screwed up Ag system...

The article frames its Egyptian based observations as all MENA, but while certain issues are shared, many are very Egyptian. Certainly Ag is attracting capital flows, although some may be more real estate plays - e.g. the cited Gulfie interest.

Continue reading "Water, Food & Petrol"

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July 13, 2008

Ya Rayah...Ch7al nedmou lebad l-ghafline qblek: Southern Med & Socio Economics

With proper reference to Taha's Ya Rayah* which seems more than appropriate given the subject matter, and prompted by The Economist’s recent profile on investment in the Mediterranean as well as a series of articles on the Maghreb and southern Med region (let me call this MedSud from now on, as MEDA sounds idiotic), including a previously noted Lounsbury article from NY Times piece on Algerian Youth, an interesting FT series on labour markets, education and youth in MENA (and in particular on entrepreneurship, or rather not being a lazy bureaucrat), in addition to the rather cretinous article from Abu Dhabi on Maghreb investment that Hogan already cited.

Update: also in similar vein see Comments on Khaleej Times whinging on Islamic Finance

Update II - 15 Jul: quick clarification on my remarks and in particular my MedSud usage. While the underlying article and research by ANIMA covers a wider range - the MEDA zone as they define it including Israel and Turkey, my remarks do not. I personally consider both too different to look at analytically in grouping with the Maghreb or the Arab Machreq. Obviously discussable, but the remarks below should be understood as excluding entirely Turkey and Israel.

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July 08, 2008

Maghreb-ward, Ho! Gulf investment heads into the sunset

Rudely poaching on turf far better handled by other contributors, I call attention to this article in The National of Abu Dhabi(?) which relates risk/reward considerations of Gulf investment in North Africa, particularly in real estate. Do the observations jibe with reality? Too little fear, too little greed, or too much. Or just right. A good intro for the beginner or just a superficial story? Excerpts below the fold.

Continue reading "Maghreb-ward, Ho! Gulf investment heads into the sunset"

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June 27, 2008

Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble

This Washington Post story nurtures the question: are the recent bubble-like oil price spikes driven by speculative runs on oil or are they driven by a fundamental growth in demand? The supply side, aka Saudi Arabia, claims the first choice and the demand side, aka America and industrialized states, claims the second. My semi-educated wild hunch is that the supply siders' 'explanation (high speculation) is closer to the truth. (UPDATE: Commenter Klaus notes a more recent Krugman column on the same subject arguing that economic fundamentals are primarily driving the price increase.)

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June 22, 2008

Islamic Finance Bubble

A quick note, prompted by a very decent set of audio-visual summaries at FT on Islamic Finance, and a note within the presentation that the Islamic Finance industry has not been effected to date by the global credit crunch (although noting exposure to Gulf Real Estate).

It strikes me that as impressive as the growth has been in the past seven years, it corresponds rather precisely with the big Gulf boom driven by hydrocarbon prices. There is much loose talk of huge new Muslim markets, counting up the global number of Muslims - African, Asian, etc. - as potential market numbers (see the articles here). This, like your average "MENA" but really Gulf Fund, playing with regional numbers to inflate potential is utter bollocks. Much boosterism comes from the Gulf, and more from City bankers with a thin understanding of the variations in the Islamic world and the extent to which poorer markets with more liberal approaches to Islam are going to be genuinely willing to pay a premium for services (or be exposed to more risk - although that is more likely to be disguised). Perhaps worth a further discussion, but it strikes me that Islamic finance growth right now is intimiately and almost uniquely driven by asset inflation in the Gulf, that makes everything look attractive.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:18 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

June 19, 2008

KSA Gives Up Dream of Making the Desert Green

Here’s a very interesting article on the waste that the Saudi adventure of growing its own wheat has been. A few quotes:

“Within 12 years, between 1980 and 1992, wheat production grew 29-fold--from 142,000 tons in 1980 to 4.1 million tons in 1992 --making the Saudi desert the world's sixth-largest wheat exporting country.” “Between 1981 and 1993, Saudi Arabia spent a total of $225 billion out of US$420 billion in total oil revenues on defense and security. (…) Maintaining the ruling family is estimated to have cost $4 billion per annum during the 1980s, and more in later years as the family grew”

“For the sixteen years between 1984 and 2000, it may be estimated that the assessable cost of Saudi agricultural development could be put at about $85 billion, representing 18 percent of the country's $485 billion in revenues from oil exports during the period. This huge investment produced wheat at an average cost of more than US$500 per ton. During the same period, the international market price for wheat averaged about $120 per ton. When the waste resulting from abandoning the newly reclaimed and irrigated lands plus four unquantified government subsidies are added, the cost might more than double.”

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June 08, 2008

Rebuilding Lake Tritonis

Through Pantom, Jane Jacobs on cities:

... City development is a natural process, and oftentimes the problem is not to get it going but to remove obstacles to it.
In many ways we would simply waste less time and money on what doesn't work:
• Cities and countries wouldn't bother trying to attract transplanted factories (the focus of most current international development). At best this would be seen as a stopgap measure, one step short of charity.

This quote sums up the spirit of an important part of Jacob's article. It made me think of all those efforts to develop the Sahara and the Arabian Desert. One particular instance that came to mind is an idea put on the table by the Tunisian government in the 1980s to create an interior sea using the chotts. The idea was never implemented for petty political reasons, so petty politics might have positive side benefits it seems. It was actually born in the head of a French military scientist in 1864’s Algeria.

Continue reading "Rebuilding Lake Tritonis"

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May 07, 2008

Bread & Riots

If you follow MENA news (and indeed news generally) rising food prices, coupled with rising petrol prices, have provoked for the first time in years serious concerns about food availability to the poorer segments of the population. And demos and riots. And when mass demos occur in the Middle East and North Africa, fear of regime stability gets in the air. Serious challenges for a region where the emerging free(er) markets are yet fragile. Nevertheless, the FT's arty today, Mideast reels as hunger outgrows oil earnings is bothersome.

Perhaps the lead is what is the most irritating:

For years, food policy in the Middle East and North Africa was very simple: hydrocarbon exports paid for carbohydrate imports.

A quote that then segues into issues of the non-oil exporters. My irritation is always raised when all MENA is written about as if it were the Gulf. This is not merely sloppy, it leads people, even Sr. persons, to dangerously misconstrue developments.

Continue reading "Bread & Riots"

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March 22, 2008

American Tantrums - Don't Talk to the Iranians

The Americans increasingly shrill tantrums about doing business with Iranstrike me as entirely self-defeating. Rather like the Cuban sanctions, they are likely merely to give the regime a foreign enemy and scapegoat an excuse on which to hang the consequences of its own economic incompetence. Never mind they are likely to be as successful as those stunningly successful Cuban sanctions (whose main purpose seems to be preventing Americans from vacationing on the cheap, but no matter, all the better for the aficionados of non-tradable products Cuban).

Childish idiocy and tantrums, wishful thinking and gradiosity seem to be what one is in for until this current band of incompetents in the US is out of power. Nine long months, if the cretins don't drive themselves into a currency collapse.

Meanwhile, I would think the US Treasury has better things to do with its time than haranguing the world about the risks of doing business with Iranian financial firms. It might do well to worry about the risks of doing business with American financial firms.

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February 03, 2008

Dollars, Gulf Politics & MENA Economies, tip, tiptoeing...

Without extended commentary, I draw attention to The Financial Times report that Qatar is considering breaking the dollar peg, following Kuwait and certainly if it does so putting a nail in the coffin of the original vision of the unified Gulf currency zone.

The report, which if realized, would make Qatar the 2nd after Kuwait to break the strict dollar peg, highlights a feedback between the current American Administration's profligate fiscal policy -itself tied to a frankly delusional foreign policy that has by evident incompetence as well as imperial overreaching damaged credibility generally [never mind the exact politics]- and regional politics and policy. Make no mistake, the dollar peg has long been as much a politic as an economic statement.

Of course taking such a step in an environment like the present is economically rational - above all if one believes that one is entering a period of long term dollar weakness or instability, although a more flexible exchange regime is generically usually a better thing regardless of the specific dollar issues.

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December 11, 2007

Releasing Built-Up Labor Tension

The floodgates have opened. It is the beginning of the end for serious labor repression in the UAE, and the rest of the Gulf is likely to follow. Dubai's employers have been forced to negotiate with (illegally) organized labor and come out second-best.

Organized labor has never had it good in the Gulf. The armies of foreign construction workers - there are 700,000 in the UAE alone - live in overcrowded and unhygienic quarters, work in unsafe conditions, have no political rights, and are banned from collective bargaining. They can't even switch jobs when their employers fail to pay them, as happens all too often. Over the past couple of years, a depreciation in the value of local currencies pegged to the dollar has meant they have been able to send less money home than ever before, rendering many unable to support families they were forced to leave behind, even as high inflation has eaten into their purchasing power in the Gulf. Meanwhile, demand for workers has surged with a building boom brought about by high oil prices.

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November 10, 2007

MENA Reform: Dead Hand of the State & Great Cairo

Returning to issues financial and economic, and in homage to our classic Cairo building post from 2005, I draw attention to a fine, if short, article in The Financial Times on the nefast influence of the dead hand of the Egyptian state, and the politics of pious posturing on the living standards and housing quality in Cairo, the Great Dump.

A few key items to highlight, as they are general lessons for the region, and indeed for emerging markets, largely around the failure of socialist and unrealistic, indeed wooley headed "progressive Left" interventionism.

Continue reading "MENA Reform: Dead Hand of the State & Great Cairo"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

September 04, 2007

Incentives and Accountability in Gulf Labor Markets

If the penalty for shooting someone was a $12 fine, and a warning that repeat offenders might lose access to firearms, what would happen? The murder rate would shoot up. We rely on incentives and disincentives to promote or dissuade against all sorts of things, from charitable giving to compliance with the law.

Continue reading "Incentives and Accountability in Gulf Labor Markets"

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September 02, 2007

Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows

My favourite newspaper, as a running dog of an anglo saxon ultra liberale as the francophones like to style me (well except the running dog part, it not being in the idioma) The Financial Times has a fine series on Remittances, or in more ordinary language, money sent home by 3rd Worlders working outside of home country.

Funny these terms. Leaving this aside, remittances is quite a hot topic in the financial world, both in policy and in the money making parts, because the volumes are huge and our grubby little minds always think there must be ways to do interesting things with cash flows. More prosaically, the development people are all atwitter that:

In many developing countries today, more money comes from remittances than from foreign aid, foreign investment or even traditional exports. In Central America, remittances have long eclipsed traditional agricultural mainstays such as coffee and bananas. Migrants send more money to Morocco than tourists spend there. In some small countries – Lebanon, Serbia, Haiti, Tonga, Albania and Jamaica are all examples – remittances generate more revenues than all merchandise exports put together. The latest World Bank figures list 14 countries where migrants’ earnings account for 15 per cent or more of economic output, ranging from Moldova with 38 per cent to Jamaica with 16.4 per cent.

So there must be ways to make this money work better than merely supporting consumption, they say!

On the other side, and this is particularly true for marginally financially literate American government officials, there is this huge obsession with hawala (their mot phare, having just learned it, and thinking it applicable everywhere in - what do they call it, the silly little American provincials, BMENA or GMENA (Broader / Greater MENA), (1) and transfers (informal or otherwise) as terror financing. Apparently insensible to the data indicating nothing much in the way of money laundering as such has been involved in al Qaeda acts despite much fevered talk.

Continue reading "Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows"

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July 25, 2007

Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Stability and Investment

Some time back a good friend of mine in the Maghrebine banking community asked me my thoughts on what would happen if The Parti la Justice et le Développement (Justice & Development Party), the moderate Islamist party in Morocco won the upcoming elections - as they would clearly do in any free election, from an investment flow point of view. Or more succinctly - would people like me take money out of the market, re-balance to Tunisia, etc.

My answer was "depends" - although Moroccan politics is not something I follow terribly closely, PJD actually in the economic sphere has always struck me as being fairly economically liberal (given the francophone and Arab world benchmarks that is) - and I opined that us Anglo Saxon investors would actually like to see a government with better roots and thus probably better ability to move economic liberalisation forward. I was worried, though, that this answer might be too me. I submit, then, the results of the Turkish elections and London's reactioin as partial indication my gut read is on target.

(See also Abu Aardvark's thoughts on Arab world reaction to the elections and in particular re the pseudo-secularist "Moderates")

Continue reading "Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Stability and Investment"

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July 22, 2007

Dubai's New Erection Penetrates Foe China Entry's Position

Why are you looking at me like that? Stop it. The internal structure of the new under-construction Burj Dubai tower has just passed the height of the rival entry in the world's tallest building competition, Taiwan-Republic of China's Taipei 101 tower. The Burj is now 1,667 feet (sorry, I don't do metric). The question: is there any value or significance to such structures? It looks horrible at this stage; is the final version decent? And no. The caption wrote itself. Grow up. (Update: Taipei 101 - I think it's ugly too.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:45 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

May 23, 2007

The never ending list of new bans in Islamic finance

Before I mention this amusing theoretical case of a usurious zero interest rate, a few comments about today’s FT Alphaville’s entry on Islamic finance:

Islamic finance - based on a strict interpretation of the Koran that bans the use of interest in transactions

Usury. The Quran bans usury. What the Quran explicitly bans isn’t the topic of the Islamic finance debate. It’s whether any amount of interest constitutes usury.

Concepts such as derivatives and hedge funds, for example, are considered particularly controversial, given the Koran’s ban on gharar (speculation).

Ben Smith, the author of this entry really needs to get his info outside Tora Bora, because there’s no such ban whatsoever in the Quran. The discussion about gharar comes from some hardly known jurisprudence, and it's not even a prohibition. Even the obscure ramblings of those yawn provoking troglodytes have a more nuanced (well, confused) view on it than the one presented above.

Continue reading "The never ending list of new bans in Islamic finance"

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May 05, 2007

The Forex Wall

I’ve hit it again. The Lounsbury and I have had a brief exchange about this some time ago, and I just discussed it with a Moroccan acquaintance. The guy’s an accountant. Morocco or Tunisia, to quote only those examples among many other Arab countries, impose trade restrictions when it comes to foreign currencies.

The argument I’m given in support for those restrictions is invariably the same: everyone will rush to buy foreign currencies, and the country will have a shortage of it. That such an argument comes from an accountant is puzzling. It totally ignores the fact that markets would automatically balance that demand. If some little buddy is ready to sell his house for a couple of euros, then he must be a moron of epic proportions. And if one’s worried about the resulting exchange rate, then there definitely are ways to control them through market mechanisms.

Continue reading "The Forex Wall"

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April 26, 2007

Finance 101 for Muslims

It is sad to say this, but finance is to today’s Muslims what medicine or astronomy was to medieval Europeans. I’m so sick of coming across people condemning themselves to poverty because they decided to follow the widespread confusion promoted by ulemas who are criminally ignorant about finance and even about traditional Islamic jurisprudence itself. So here, I decided to write this intro to finance in the hope that it will enlighten at least some of the Muslims who are hesitant when it comes to dealing with interests.

I’ll try to make it as simple as possible and will avoid circus monkeys jargon, sometimes even overly simplifying for clarity’s sake. It’s for lay people, so finance geeks look away, or your eyes are going to hurt. This is very long, so here are the sections:

I The law of gravity: supply and demand
II Money’s just an asset
III The time value of money
IV Risk
V Putting it together: interest rates
VI You do want that loan: why borrowing is necessary
VII The fallacies behind Islamic finance
VIII Islamic jurisprudence and the case of the last Caliphate
IX Pass it on

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April 05, 2007

Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town

Youssef Boutros Ghali, Egypt's Minister of Finance, will be giving his take -- perhaps a bad choice of words -- on the economy of Nile-dom right here in Potomac River City, aka Washington D.C., on Thursday, April 12 (reserve at the CATO Institute by 11 April). Full details are below the break, and here, the most important of which is "Cato Forums and luncheons are free of charge." D.C area Aqoulites are required to go, if they are below 32 and in any kind of University. Meanwhile, informed comments from all on the subject, including from our own regional finance hyperinformed but Masrophobic resident Id, are welcome.

Continue reading "Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town"

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March 06, 2007

Iraq Oil Law Discussion

Somewhat tardily, but at reader request, a note on the new Iraqi oil law bill in cabinet, as reported in the FT.

My quick reaction: meaningless bollocks. My longer reaction, bloody idiotic meaningless bollocks just like the fucking schools painted and other such nonsense that only idiotic innocents with no fucking sense of fucking reality will get excited about. There are no economics to discuss. There is no way to model having your pipelines constantly cut and if you're in Kurd Land, the Kurds losing control of their production, a political threat of no small probability.

Reader reactions welcome.

[NB: corrected some idiotic early AM grammatical blunders, linking idiocies and the like-CL 7 march]

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:19 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 17, 2007

Arab unity, saved by the dinar

In the latest of Qaddafi's changes of mood, it has been decided to impose a visa to Maghrebi citizens visiting Libya among others. This is not the first violation of the agreements that guarantee freedom of movement in the Maghreb. But while violating agreements in MENA is a common sport that might have little impact in practice - most of them haven't been worth the paper they're written on since their inception - this one in particular could have seriously hurt the interests of both Tunisia and Libya itself.

Continue reading "Arab unity, saved by the dinar"

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February 03, 2007

Khaleejization: Background Information

The Arab Gulf countries have long relied on foreign labor to keep their economies running. Nationals largely work in cushy government jobs that pay above-market wages and require relatively few hours. This was part of the bargain the royal families struck with their populations- no representation, no taxation. By contrast, private sectors in the Gulf are dominated by expatriates. With the partial exception of certain kinds of managers, the latter are compensated poorly and work long hours.

Continue reading "Khaleejization: Background Information"

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Abu Dhabi Strikes Back

For generations, the rulers of the Arabian peninsula have been rivals. In the past, they vied for the loyalties of the nomadic tribes of the region. Today, their competition centers around their economies. Flush with oil revenues, they have striven to outdo one another in building businesses and cities.

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January 12, 2007

Pan-Arab Trade: Never Missing an Occasion to Miss...

Rather than go on with the stunningly depressing issues of American blundering about in the MENA region and environs, I am off a mood to poke a stick in the eye of Pan-Arab cooperation, or perhaps better, Pan-Arab whinging on about cooperation without any real intention to cooperate.

The underlying article here is in French, from the Moroccan business journal, La Vie Eco, a decent enough publication, and discusses the problems that several much ballyhooed (or feared, depending on the perspective) free trade agreements between the Arab Med and generally Arab states have gone nowhere. Amusingly I recalled the head of Al Ahram al Iqtissadi telling me several years ago that all these agreements would go right into the freezer. Sadly that appears to be the case.

The why of the rather predictable fate of these efforts is perhaps a more interesting question than the actual failure, as the failure of cooperation - even on the relatively limited sub-regional scale - often surprises, but worse than surprises, is a positive drag on the region.

Continue reading "Pan-Arab Trade: Never Missing an Occasion to Miss..."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:48 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 01, 2006

Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy

The slow motion disaster that is Iraq has come to bore me, now that I have written off personal interests there (although as an aside, now one doesn't cease to get offers to take part in US reconstruction - sorry boys, too late. In '03 I would have done it. Now you're 3 years down the road to utter catastrophe, not a bloody chance).

However, as part of the larger wreckage of US policy, that remains sadly a major but largely negative driver in the region (not due to overall intentions, but realism of how and on what schedule said intentions can be implemented - which is to say due to the utterly magical fairy-dust approach they insist on taking) one has to be interested in Iraq and US MENA policy which surrounds it and is in part driven by the fiasco.

Continue reading "Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

November 12, 2006

Dirty Little Secrets: Labour Exploitation in the UAE

To get away from US centered whanking on, and away from the depressing subjects of Iraq or Palestine, a quick reference to a very timely article in FT on labour exploitation in the UAE .

An open secret of course, if one can say a secret at all.

Continue reading "Dirty Little Secrets: Labour Exploitation in the UAE"

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October 22, 2006

Memo from Dubai

It seems worthwhile to draw attention to an interesting article in NYT on Dubai and culture clashes, one which I think despite some superficialities is actually quite interesting. Stemming from a recent local Expat paper's admonishment to respect local culture a bit, it appears to have set off some reaction. I frankly agree with the admonition.

I also found the illustrating image amusing as the inappropriate couple behind the Emirati clique is so very clearly Leb.

Continue reading "Memo from Dubai"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:14 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

October 06, 2006

Dubai, the Attraction

A quick note to draw attention to a recent arty by Roula Khalaf of FT on Dubai and the why behind its success to date: Dubai cultivates oasis of calm where Arab business life can flourish.

The main thrust of the article is to highlight some of the why behind Dubai's success to date, beyond just stupid amounts of capital. Although that is a clear major condition, it is not a sufficient one as the other petro-giants of the region never managed to achieve Dubai's success (even if we mitigate our appreciation of the success by noting a definately unsustainable aspect doped by too much liquidity chasing too few quality assets).

Despite my own critical attitude towards Dubai - much is clearly illusion and can not survive, there are also clear lessons with respect to the ability of the Arab/MENA region entreprenurial classes actually being able to flourish when a moderately liberal (quite liberal for the off-shore aspects) business environment is established. I do note that some of - indeed in some ways much of Dubai's liberalism is rather Potemkin liberalism insofar as it is all of a very temporary, Enlightened Despot Suffrage quality. That being said, if one takes Dubai with a grain of salt, it does illustrate via its off-shore business services sector the degree to which Arabo-Muslim entrepreneurship is seeking a place to flourish away from the dead hand of the state, and the degree to which even in the temporary, Prince-dependent liberalism of Dubai seems vastly attractive in a world where the West is growing stupidly more hostile to Arabo-Islamic money.

Continue reading "Dubai, the Attraction"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 27, 2006

Solidarity, Reg: Maghreb, Outsourcing and Reaction

One of the issues that the United States has gotten right in MENA is its sometime concentration (when the gross fabulists that are political leadership of the Bush Administration are not dreaming up imaginary and magical transformations of a New Middle East, in time to render themselves ridculous and fools, e.g. Lebanon) on economic liberalisation as means to grow the region and provide new opportunity. It would do better to focus more on seeing real liberalisation see the day, and let its completely magical thinking about democratisation fall by the wayside.

The political support for such liberalisation contrasts favourably with the absurd double talk Europe engages in with respect to economic policy, above all France (which of course is no worse and in many ways better informed than the self-decieving fabulism the Americans are engaging in on the political 'democratisation' front). The Financial Times has an important article, although one not likely to be noticed by many, on the clash between Axa unions in France and the company over its plans to outsource to the Maghreb.

Continue reading "Solidarity, Reg: Maghreb, Outsourcing and Reaction"

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September 25, 2006

Leb Land & Recon, Back to Networks

Returning to a hint I made a month ago, I find on the newswires confirmation of the scheming re buying some street cred in Lebanon after the disastrous backing of 'transformation via Israeli shells' did such a lovely job of fucking American reputation into a cocked hat.

The USD 250 million of course is better than zero, but I am having a hard time seeing effectiveness given zero on the ground networks.

Hezbullah won, and even the backstopping effort isn't very good.

[Updated with links to actual entries supra, just to prove The Lounsbury is ahead of the curve]

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:17 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

September 15, 2006

Futile Bollocks and Banking

Although I remain rather too busy to contribute as I would like and should, the Generator is too embarassing to have as the lead item, so a comment on an important piece of idiocy by the Americans: their attempt to shut the Iranians out of the financial markets unilaterally: US threatens further action against Iranian banks.

I frankly find such interventions borderline retarded, as well as self-defeating, leaving aside the willy nilly confusion of Hezbullah with al Qaeda in such rhetoric. Incoherence.

Continue reading "Futile Bollocks and Banking"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 22, 2006

Rigidities & Employment: Small Details, Large Effects

In my small note last week, on MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans our colleague Shaheen rightly raised the issue of negative effects of apparently small issues as well as the negative impact of what I might call "sand in the wheels" - such as heavy visa regulations that can kill time sensitive deals - an increasingly common issue in a world of accelerating decision cycles.

Aside from the conversation in comments on the challenges of visas for the entrepreneur looking to build exports (as I note, supposedly a key policy concern for the US), my own suggestion with respect to visa services was rightly critiqued for the remaining bureaucratic braking effect.

Continue reading "Rigidities & Employment: Small Details, Large Effects"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:44 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 28, 2006

Be Saudi: Hire a Saudi

That is the message on a billboard that towers above Saudi cities and attempts to call upon the patriotism of Saudis when the many Saudisation schemes have failed. "Saudisation" is the process of mandatory government-sponsored affirmative action that aims to end the monopoly of expatriates, mainly in the fields of banking and government bureaucracies. The scheme initially was launched in order to get Saudis into middle management white-collar jobs but has recently descended into the realms of (shock, horror) retail businesses and supermarkets. As the Israel-Lebanon issue has now descended into the wrist-slashing realm of the depressing, I thought 'Aqoul would turn its attention to the merely-banging-head-against-the wall realm of the depressing.

Continue reading "Be Saudi: Hire a Saudi"

Posted by Meph at 10:48 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack

June 19, 2006

Hariri's Clever Scheme

Or, where the Lebanon debt crisis came from in the first place.

So I see that Executive magazine finally has their web edition up (disclaimer: they give me money, but not to blog), which means I can point to this Nick Photidiates article on the Lebanese national debt and how the banking sector is tied up in it. According to him, it all came down to decisions Rafik Hariri made when he originally took power.

Continue reading "Hariri's Clever Scheme"

Posted by tomscud at 08:23 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

May 29, 2006

On Iraq, Dinars & Informed Comment: Some Reflexions

Due to some misunderstanding, I thought I would make a follow-up comment on a semi-private email exchange on Iraq

The context then: I wrote Professor Cole of Informed Comment regarding a relatively tangential statement there regarding Iraqi dinars, monetary policy and some statement by Amer Taheri regarding the stability of the currency. Cole withdrew his original characterisation re Taheri, but then followed up with further comment, mentioning yours truly in both. Given the excuse, I thought I should correct some misapprehensions, as well as abusively ramble on, these being my core competencies, about currency valuation, Iraq and the like, perhaps secondarily some gratuitous abuse of various parties for my own personal entertainment.

Continue reading "On Iraq, Dinars & Informed Comment: Some Reflexions"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:21 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

May 23, 2006

Dubai Glitter - Union troubles

While not having much substantive to add, I thought that before this aged too much, that some attention should be brought to a recent FT article on on unions, entitled "Union troubles start to emerge from Dubai's glittering facades' published 19 May.

The article covers material that we here at Aqoul have touched upon, effectively the signs that the impoverished sub Con workers who make up the spine of the vast construction site that is Dubai are finally starting to crack under the pressure of low wages, rising costs, and just plain near slavery conditions.

The article bears a quick reading, as well as pondering whether UAE aspirations (to US FTA, to other goodies) will force change. I would bet that the government takes a bail out angle. After all, among the drivers of the last few weeks of unrest has been that labourers have been crushed between escalating housing and general living costs, and low wages.

An obvious Dubai type solution is to have the Emirate provide mass worker housing somewhere, allowing companies to externalise housing costs (or continue to do so to be more accurate).

Part of the usual indirect and obscure subsidy approach the Emirates have grown to love. Might even be an efficient solution.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

May 20, 2006

Islamic Finance - Scholar Shortages

Some weeks ago one of your fine 'Aqoul authors raised the issue of Islamic finance, and its present situation.

While perhaps less sexy than the faux-reports of Iranian Nazi-esque clothing restrictions on minorities, understanding a bit about economic developments in the region is more useful to readers wanting to actually have a sense of MENA developments (as opposed to merely whanking on in general ignorance about the horrors of the Arab world, etc), and The Financial Times has been running quite a number of interesting articles on the region - well actually about the Gulf, but the confusion of Gulf with all of MENA/Arab world is so general I almost cannot complain.

Continue reading "Islamic Finance - Scholar Shortages"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:31 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

May 16, 2006

Maghrebine Media II

Now that we have had our little side trip on Somali-Dutch immigration politics (fulfilling all desire on my part to touch on the same, although at Reason.com one can pursue one’s desire to comment on the irrational reactions) , I thought I might return to something rather more profound, that being media in the Maghreb and the recent Moroccan steps to liberalisation.

Continue reading "Maghrebine Media II"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 15, 2006

Maghrebine Media Makeovers: Morocco Issues Radio & TV Licenses - Liberalising or Potemkin Media

Following up on some prior exchanges with Issandr Bey of The Arabist, I thought I might take a moment to give a summary of the results of an item we touched on, liberalisation of the Moroccan broadcast market. Let me also try to do some value added original commentary as well, if only for the novelty value – I have terribly neglected such in my long-whinging on about tumours and the like.

The Conseil supérieur de la communication audiovisuelle (CSCA) issued the first approvals for private broadcast licenses (excepting some limited prior efforts), one television via satellite by the Médi 1 group, Médi1 Sat, and 11 radio projects.

Continue reading "Maghrebine Media Makeovers: Morocco Issues Radio & TV Licenses - Liberalising or Potemkin Media"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:43 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

May 11, 2006

Dubai: Economic Cannibalisation?

FT's William Wallace - a reporter working from Cairo who I am coming to look forward to - has an interesting article on Dubai, Building ambition raises Middle East financial stakes, that merits a read by those of us who follow the place.

The shortest version, speculation that the Dubai model of free zones and specialised development "cities" is reaching the end of its logic with its proliferation in Dubai and copying of the concept among on the part of neighbours, as in Qatar. I beleive there is something to this, the issue of diminishing returns off of the strategy.

Continue reading "Dubai: Economic Cannibalisation?"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

May 04, 2006

Morocco, Journos and Media bis, a reply

Encore comment

This is a bit tardy, but Issandr Bey of the Arabist had a comment on my somewhat ill-tempered take on the Moroccan journal, Le Journal Hebdo libel case judgment as well as more generally on the media there and some related developments.

As a distraction from working on a market proposal which I haven’t got the proper information on regardless, I thought I might expand on my comment on The Arabist reply.

Red Prince to the rescue

Continue reading "Morocco, Journos and Media bis, a reply"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:47 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

April 29, 2006

Dubai Buy II: Revenge of the UAE

According to the New York Times:

President Bush is expected on Friday to announce his approval of a deal under which a Dubai-owned company would take control of nine plants in the United States that manufacture parts for American military vehicles and aircraft, say two administration officials familiar with the terms of the deal. . . .

Continue reading "Dubai Buy II: Revenge of the UAE"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 11, 2006

Morocco: Pimping Pleasure or Stalling Out? (Economist)

The present Economist contains an intriguing article covering part of my brief, and a somewhat neglected corner of the MENA world, Morocco. Morocco attracts rather little attention in the "Anglo Saxon" world, despite having racked up some interesting political and economic wins in the past year, so perhaps a quick commentary then on the article, and the state of things in this rather strategically located country.

Continue reading "Morocco: Pimping Pleasure or Stalling Out? (Economist)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:13 AM | Comments (26) | TrackBack

April 06, 2006

Labour Rights in the Gulf

For decades now, the Gulf countries have built themselves up using a combination of abundant capital and cheap labour. Owing to their relatively small population bases and large oil revenues, importing workers from poor neighboring countries has been easy. Since the 1960s, each decade has seen a large rise in the numbers of expatriates in the Gulf. Proportions vary between the various countries, but the numbers are highest in the UAE, where non-citizens account for some 85% of the population and over 90% of the workforce (including 98% of the private sector).

Continue reading "Labour Rights in the Gulf"

Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 12:42 AM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

March 10, 2006

DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back

I shall make this briefish note as the DPW fiasco continues to steam ahead. In many ways this is good for me personally as I expect increased in-region / non-US flows for MENA money. But it is bad for investment in the US, bad for US MENA policy and reveals as clearly as clear can be the deep vein of anti-Arab bigotry hiding beneath the surface in the United States. A loss for moderation, a loss for state security interests and a loss for economic efficiency and investment in key assets. Yes, bravo to ignorant know-nothing racist jingoism. This blows back not only to commerce, but also to our pious middle conversation, make no mistake about it.

Continue reading "DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:35 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

March 09, 2006

Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia

Well, the irrational forces of bigotted know-nothing nativism and bigotted Islamophobia won out, DPW has finally said fuck it, keep poorly run ports, we'll take the profitable parts of P&O , or as the statement went,

“Because of the strong relationship between the United Arab Emirates and the US, and to preserve that relationship...DP World will transfer fully the US operation of P&O Ports North America Inc to a United States entity,” Edward Bilkey, the company’s chief operating officer, said in a statement.

Only yesterday the head, Mr Sharaf,

acknowledged ... that the US facilities were a small part of the deal and less profitable than other P&O container terminals. His remarks came as the White House appeared to soften its support for the deal and the House of Representatives pressed ahead with plans to block the transaction.

It is also of note that private equity groups, smelling blood in the water,

have approached DP World about buying the US operations, people familiar with the matter said. Industry observers said logical candidates included Blackstone and Macquarie, the Australian bank.

Well, mark one of up for the forces of blind bigotry and irrational anti-Arab xenophobia with all the dark hand waving about "connexions" and "associations" and the utter inability to distinguish between Saudiyah and the rest of the Arab world.

Continue reading "Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:08 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

March 05, 2006

Dubai: Some Background

For those members of our readership who hadn't come across Dubai before the P&O deal hit the headlines, here is some basic information about the city.

If you were to arrive in Dubai and look at all the glass and concrete buildings, you might easily believe yourself at first to be in a medium-to-large American city. This is not true – the city runs along rather different lines from any in the West, and similarities are often only superficial. However, there is one important way in which Dubai resembles the United States: the business of Dubai is business.

Continue reading "Dubai: Some Background"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 10:43 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)

Sadly my work is distracting me from the fun of the ongoing Bigotted Know Nothing Nativist Ignoramus Mob Madness surrounding DPW's takeover of UK's P&O and the incidental acquisition of the operating leases for port operations at six major US ports (although in the UK and globally sanity has prevailed*), I wanted to augment my dear friend and colleague, Secret Dubai's post on Israeli support for Dubai and DPW with specific reference to the Israeli shipping line Zim's statement of support; I should say it comes as no surprise to anyone with experience in the region that some Israelis would step forward on this, even in a politically delicate situation - not so oddly it is the moderates on all sides trying to do business that know each other.

Continue reading "Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:57 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

February 25, 2006

Right Punditocracy Defends UAE Port Deal

Not to sully Aqoul too much with USA domestic blustery, but it appears some of the heavy weight right punditocracy is weighing in against knee-jerk opposition to the Dubai Ports World indirect purchase of US ports operations via its purchase of a British company's interests.

Bill O'Reilly: "For now, the cold truth is that the U.S.A. will not win the war on terror without the help of nations like the United Arab Emirates. We simply cannot afford to fire that nation. If we lose these people, we'll lose the war."

Lawrence Kudlow: "This whole brouhaha surrounding the Bush administration’s green-light to a United Arab Emirates company slated to manage six major U.S. ports has nothing to do with protecting homeland security. Allow me to give it its proper name: Islamophobia."

Continue reading "Right Punditocracy Defends UAE Port Deal"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:17 PM | Comments (25) | TrackBack

February 20, 2006

Invert This! Dangerous Yield Curves, Global Economy & MENA

Not to distract from the hot and overheated issues like the UAE -- excuse me, the {dramatic music} ARAB -- firm acquiring US port operations for its greasy Semite terror-mitts; or the obscure Danish cartoons wherein Muslims worldwide have found a cause for disproportionate outrage, in preference to their own local horrible conditions, or the tens of thousands of insulting movies, texts, speeches and fiction already out there.

But am I the only one noticing -- ok I am not, but it's sure quiet -- that the US Treasury yield curve is doing one of its periodic dangerous inversions? In a world of hyperliquidity and low real return (UAE equity market as MENA example?), and undervalued pressurized Chinese currency (my prediction for a bigger than expected global shock when the renminbi is properly revalued), could this mean a downturn that will affect the current climate in MENA, not to mention worldwide?

Eco-people: help me out. Should the prudent be stuffing their dirhams in the mattresses?

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:24 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

February 19, 2006

Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger

The emerging US controversy over Dubai Port World (an atrocious name I may add, even DP World is bad - hereafter at 'Aqoul, DPW) buying out historic UK port operator P&O - which incidentally includes a portfolio of US assets.

That unfortunate fact - a portfolio of US assets, which is to say management interests in six US ports on the United States Eastern Sea Board - has occasioned the exposure of a vein of ugly sentiment and public commentary, as well as typical for the "blogosphere" blind and ill-informed reaction. Another confirmation that Right and Left blog authors’ sneering with respect to the real media is badly misplaced.

This post – which will be updated and moved forward as I develop it – is intended to correct the poorly-informed xenophobic knee-jerking on Left and Right.

(I note in the interim that the fine American habit of turning everything into a lawsuit has emerged already as Maimi "Firm Sues to Block Foreign Port Takeover" per the WP, which pimps the security fallacy.)

Continue reading "Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:00 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack

On Morocco, Investment & Islamist Promotion

Without further comment In Morocco, a Gray Area for Growth, by Hoagland, a not bad op-ed (if superficial factually) that at least poses challenges to some of the more simple minded phobia with respect to Islamism.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 17, 2006

MENA Investment & FDI: Oh my, they control our ports (Updated: Dubai & US Ports)

Foreign direct investment often provokes among the less than economically literate frightened reactions about loss of control - sometimes justified but in general, not. That politicians exploit tribal fears of foreigners controlling the jewels of the nation (whichever nation) is perhaps not surprising. It is always depressing. As we pass through a small storm of Islamic versus Western tensions, it is not surprising that the forces of unreason, emotive fear sweeping MENA, etc. have had an influence.

[Update: related post chez my Lounsbury den of iniquity, with respect to blog commentary and xenophobia, a small obs and question posed.]

[Update II: My coyness aside, a discussion of the Dubai Port World - US Ports issue broke at at the above commentary linked at Lounsbury - after some obligatory beating of a sensless commentator sensless.]

Continue reading "MENA Investment & FDI: Oh my, they control our ports (Updated: Dubai & US Ports)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:56 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 01, 2006

Foreign Workers and Labour Rights in the Gulf

Last year I attended a Sunni-Shia wedding for an old friend of mine (this is an entry on its own, but for another time). It was a truly international affair with guests from North America, Europe, the Mideast, Africa and Asia. One of bride’s relatives flew in from the UAE with her husband, two young children and two nannies in tow. One nanny for each child of course: a young south Indian man for the boy and a Filipino woman for the girl. Both children were absolutely insufferable and threw tantrums constantly, only to be whisked out of sight or amused in a desperate fashion by their respective nannies until they settled down. After a time I began to suspect the boy was developmentally delayed (this is not simply because he was supremely irritating, there were clearly speech issues), but it seemed as though neither parent had noticed. His nanny, barely literate and sweet-natured, was tasked mainly with keeping the child happy, clean and well-fed. He clearly did not have the authority to discipline, a fact that the boy realized and used to his advantage. The girl was somewhat quieter, but the dynamic with her nanny was largely the same. Both nannies were subjected to verbal and physical abuse by their tiny and tyrannical charges, but they bore it gamely, if at times wearily. The parents, while not overtly classist/racist, were still very condescending when interacting with "the help". Naturally, their children noticed and imitated this behaviour.

Continue reading "Foreign Workers and Labour Rights in the Gulf"

Posted by eerie at 09:35 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

January 25, 2006

Maghreb & Islamic Liberalism: Superficialities & Hope for a Liberalising State, Islamic Feminism, etc

Returning to commentary, although forewarning this is post chemo and may lack a certain clarity:

Via Daniel Drezner's post on That's some interesting Islam in Morocco, I found this article from Der Spiegel on Morocco - one of my favourite countries in the MENA region - discussing Mohammed VI's efforts to modernise the socio-political culture:

The Quiet Revolution: Morocco's King Aims To Build a Modern Islamic Democracy
by Helene Zuber.

Compare, by the way, to this article from almost six years ago:

New Hope, Old Frustrations - Morocco: the point of change
by the ever Left Ramonet.

An interesting, but rather flawed article I would say.

Continue reading "Maghreb & Islamic Liberalism: Superficialities & Hope for a Liberalising State, Islamic Feminism, etc"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

January 20, 2006

Media, Business & Problems

Our Dear Father of Aardvarks has an interesting posty on al Jazeerah's market position and some recent claims that al Arabiyah is beating it out that has interest from both commercial and socio-political points of view.

Continue reading "Media, Business & Problems"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 11, 2006

On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,

Via our dear friend, Father of Aardvarks 'a comment on Gerecht on Iraqi payola', found 'Hearts and Minds' in Iraq: As History Shows, Ideas Matter More Than Who Pays to Promote Them leads me to make a comment on influence and media from a business standpoint.

Continue reading "On Media, Influence and Means: Agitprop, Iraq,"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:30 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

January 02, 2006

And in the area of economic illiteracy and policy foolishness

I read in the Moroccan business journal, L'Economiste (see here) that the drooling idiots in the government are looking at "reviewing" the concessionary contract with Lydec for the management of waste services, electricity, and other public utilities.

Continue reading "And in the area of economic illiteracy and policy foolishness"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:51 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

A Followup on the Iraq Fuel Price Fiasco

Lew Rockwell, a bit of a free-market fundamentalist, but that's not usually a bad thing, gives a 101 level explanation of why price controls and subsidies have a bad effect:

The mystery to explain is why a country that is incredibly oil rich – with the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world – would face a massive shortage of all oil products. If you knew nothing more than this detail, and you knew something about the history of economic debacles, you might guess: price controls. You would be right.

From what I can gather from public sources . . .what is unique [to Iraq in the region] is the combination of subsidies and price controls that led gasoline to be fix-priced at 5 cents per gallon until very recently. You don't have to be an economist to know what the results of this policy would be. Not only does it lead to overconsumption [but] the number of vendors willing to distribute the stuff in the open market collapses. What’s left is bought in Iraq and sold to neighboring countries at a profit.

Thus does a policy designed to make oil cheap for all result in the bizarre world in which a country full of oil underground would not have any of the stuff available above ground.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 04:09 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 24, 2005

The bubble bursteth?

A Christmas crash for soaring sandland stocks:

Retailers dump UAE stocks
Posted: Friday, December 23, 2005

Dubai: Retail investors put the skids under UAE shares and drove the Dubai market perilously close to the 1.000 point level that analysts say could trigger an institutional sell-off.

The Dubai index, which has fallen steadily since hitting a record high on November 9, closed 4.79 per cent lower at 1,003.72 points. The Abu Dhabi index finished 3.03 per cent down at 4,984.21 points.

Brokers said retail investors were behind most of the selling.

'There is real fear among the small, day traders. This is a clear sign that sentiment has turned,' said Mohammed Yassin of Emirates Capital Corporation.

In Dubai more than 78 million shares traded hands, just above the daily average for a week that has generally seen moderate volumes. The focus next week will be whether the market can keep the index above the key support level of 1000.

'If the index falls below that level then some institutions will have to start selling. I don't expect panic but there will be a gradual sell-off, which could exacerbate the correction,' said one fund manager. [Reuters]

Posted by secretdubai at 04:28 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

November 23, 2005

On Trade: Wolf & The Illiterate Mumbling of the Anti Globos

Martin Wolf has an excellent commentary on the idiocies of the anti-trade anti-globo Left and its ridiculous mumbo jumbo. Were I not half way to la la land, I might comment, but I do wish to draw attention:

Martin Wolf: Trade justice fighters are misguided
By Martin Wolf
Published: November 22 2005 20:34

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:28 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Sharia Products: Market grows for Muslim investors

Laying in bed mildly delusional from anti-haemorrhagatic drugs and other items, I thought I might indulge myself in a reflexion on an interesting arty from The Financial Times on Islamic Finance and products.

The arty in question Market grows for Muslim investors covers some interesting territory even if it is a bit general.

As I can not think of a better time to indulge in commentary on sharia products than when slightly delusional from from anti-haemorrhagatic drugs, what follows are some comments on the text itself:

Continue reading "Sharia Products: Market grows for Muslim investors"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:09 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

November 08, 2005

US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]

The item I have refered to in the past is now public:
A Ludicrously Bad Idea

The key item here is this:

"The U.S. wants to see some success before further expansion. It envisions attracting board members with the clout -- names being bandied about include Jack Welch and Robert Rubin -- to get Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak on the phone to complain, for example, that he needs to free up pharmaceutical prices if a private drug industry is to flourish in Egypt."

Fucking stupid ass concept. Getting your fund involved in these kind of politics is a disastrous way to invest.

UPDATE: Arty text below with extended commentary.

Continue reading "US Gov and Private Equity: Project is public [Upated with Arty Text] [Update 11 Nov]"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

October 24, 2005

On regional economies and competitive advantages: McKinsey & A Comment on the Maghreb (plus a perso reference)

McKinsey has published a short note in its Quarterly based off of its recent (and still secret) report to the Moroccan government on what it should do to stop being such a medoicre performer, entitled:
Morocco's Off-Shoring Advantage

More comments later, link is to the abstract, full content requires membership.

As an aside, I may be looking to hire a translator, see the Lounsbury blog for details.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 17, 2005

On Subsidies and Incompetence: How Social Solidarity Rings Hollow

In checking today's edition of the Moroccan business daily "L'Economiste" (most famous in my circles for having a bit back published an article on banking that included the inadvertent (or so one would hope) text: "My love I want to lick you everywhere.") online I was quite amused by the front pager on the inconveniences of the totally batty and absurd petrol products subsidies program.

The underlying article conveys the detials, which are essentially because the grossly incompetent (from a current planning perspective) Finance Ministry has refused to acknowledge the reality of USD 50/barrel prices and has planned its subsidies program (which was de-indexed from the market a few years back in a fit of stupidity) against (as I recall) 20 odd dollars/barrel, the government is 5 billion Moroccan dirhams in the hole to the local distributors and refiners. That's roughly 470 million USD at current prices.

A non-trivial sum.

The point here is the idiocy of the subsidies to begin with, which are boosting consumption at a time of accelerating prices, while doing nothing to help the country address conservation issues. At the very least they should be bloody indexed.

This entirely leaves aside the fact that despite the prattle about social solidarity, the untargetted subsidy actually is gives more to industrial users at the expense of taxpayers than to the poor. A targetted subsidy to say a certain size of butagaz (the weiner nat gas bottles the poor use to cook and do just about anything) might be rational.

However, this is precisely the sort of irrational economic policy that if the country is forced to lift it, the drooling morons in the anti-globo left will squeel on about oil companies and Big Business, etc. etc.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:26 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

October 12, 2005

Migration, Economics & MENA-African pileups

While I may be banging away at an issue of little general interest, I was encouraged to find something of relevance to the rising issue of Euro-African migration and the Maghreb in the last issue of the Economist.

Economics focus
Be my guest

The economic case for temporary migration is compelling; the historical record less so
Oct 6th 2005
_{(Yes subscription, don't like it? Fuck off then and read some free twaddle.)}

For those puzzled, my reference is to the recent problem emerging in the Maghreb and especially Morocco with its land border with the Spanish enclaves Ceuta and Mellila, which I mentioned in my typically light weight Illegal Immigration - Borders & Madness and The Maghreb-African Immigration Problem

Continue reading "Migration, Economics & MENA-African pileups"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:49 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 06, 2005

Arab Radio

Our friend The Father of Aardvarks has an interesting little piece drawing attention to a new report on Arab radio from the Arab Advisors Group; a very solid media advisory group founded a few years back (I should disclose that I know one of the founders, and have done business with him).

Our fine Father of Aardvarks, or Bou Aradvraak as I like to call him, largely concetrates on the public policy angle, which is important, but I find the business angle as interesting.

Continue reading "Arab Radio"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 30, 2005

Illegal Immigration - Borders & Madness: Mass Attempts at the Spanish-Moroccan border

Recently The Father of Aardvarks made a comment on some recent apparent censorship in Morocco with regards to press comments about illegal immigrants in Morocco attempting to reach Europe. Or as the Father of Aardvarks put it:

Here's a story of an Arab government clamping down on the media with an unusual twist. Al-Jazeera reports that the Moroccan government confiscated the press run of a local newspaper because it ran a "racist" and "inflammatory" article about African immigrants "invading northern Morocco."

While I understand the Father of Aardvarks is a media critic by interest and trade, my first thought was to the underlying crisis (the second being it would be nice to know which paper; there are some in Morocco I am familiar with which I have no problem suspecting of racist and inflammatory yellow journalism).

This past week saw rather dramatic events underlining precisely the level of bubbling tension on all sides that might well justifiably provoke action by the government: a series of mass assualts by "thousands" of African would be immigrants to Europe on the frontier fences of the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Mellila.

The crisis effectively is a rather large accumulation of sub-Saharan Africans building up in the Moroccan north - in the region called the Rif - along the border areas with the Spanish enclaves. This has been fairly little mentioned in the local press, although one does see time and and again in some areas clots of what are clearly sub-Saharan migrants begging and travelling north. Something most people do not trouble themselves about as Moroccans try to emmigrate in much the same way.

However, in the last few years, Morocco has been under intense pressure from the EU to "do more" with regards to stopping the flow of illegal immigrants to Spain and onwards and has taken stepped up measures to block transits via the Mediterranean and the enclaves.

Continue reading "Illegal Immigration - Borders & Madness: Mass Attempts at the Spanish-Moroccan border"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:47 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 29, 2005

IPO madness

Earlier comments here have drawn attention to the surplus of liquidity in the region, and the resulting stock market bubble. So what happens when there's an IPO for a UAE company and no way to apply for shares in Abu Dhabi?

[T]he Dana Gas IPO brought chaos to UAE banks with would-be subscribers falling over themselves to pick up application forms. All flights from Saudi Arabia to the UAE have been booked solid for days and 33,000 people crossed the border in the past four days, according to local officials.

Several banks had to close their doors to control the crowds and some banks reported scuffles as the crowds struggled to get to the counters. At least one incident was reported in which a security guard was roughed up.

New laws regulating IPOs will soon be ready in the UAE. But I believe a stock market crash is inevitable regardless.

Posted by dubaiwalla at 02:01 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 12, 2005

Underdevelopment as Dilettantisme: Why MENA Does Not Attract Capital, Reason No. 5

While sadly behind on my ability to comment substantively, I thought a bit of a comment on dilettanstisme would be worth a quick intervention (and it being all I have time for, it's what one gets).

The comment is provoked by a series of convos over the past few days in regards to a certain MENA country (which for various sensitivity reasons shall remain unnamed) and its hosting of a MENA region investment conference. Let's say that our certain MENA country is not exactly a star performer in the realm of attracted FDI, per capita or in gross. Of course neither is the region.

There are multitudes of reasons for this. The one to be discussed today, dilettantisme.

Continue reading "Underdevelopment as Dilettantisme: Why MENA Does Not Attract Capital, Reason No. 5"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:25 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 01, 2005

Colds, Fevers and Oil: US Gulf, Global Pricing

I think it worth bringing to others attention the following: Nadezhda on rather nasty scenarios regarding the impact of the hurricane that has apparently more or less destroyed the US Gulf Coast

There is plenty of electronic ink being spilled about this, I shall not waste time on that, however some reflexion on the problematic state of global oil markets and this event is relevant to the MENA region.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 26, 2005

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)

Added Thoughts on Private Equity for Devleopment MENA

I neglected to touch on a few key points in my original note, below are further thoughts on private equity and economic development for the MENA region.

Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development (bis)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 25, 2005

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development

Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development

A few weeks ago I raised the subject of emerging markets private equity in particular in the context of US Gov efforts to utilize the vehicle to further its political / development goals in the Middle East – North Africa region. One of our online world colleagues if you will posed a question to me as to what the “The Lounsbury” approach would be, in the context of my expressed skepticism in regards to the investment vehicle / definition chosen by The Overseas Private Equity Corporation.

Ironically (well not really) at present I am working on materials closely related to just this question, although not really in regards to development – but as much of the private equity activity in region has been international development institution driven there is a clearly overlap. Now, having sent drafts of my materials off for comment I can take a moment to sketch out some preliminary thoughts on the issue that will be the basis for future comment.

First, my assumptions, based on personal experience in the region and in the “sector” if we can call it that. Again, these are my a priori assumptions and principes.

Continue reading "Structuring Private Equity in MENA for Development"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:34 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Water, Business & Privatisation

A fine comment in The Financial Times today on water services privatisation that has no small meaning for the MENA region.

The private sector can get water flowing to the poor
By Fredrik Segerfeldt
Published: August 24 2005 20:14 | Last updated: August 24 2005 20:14

A subject of long interest to me, as some know, dating back to my time in Egypt where I was appaled at the sheer madness of Egypt's water policies.

Well, actually I spent much of my time appalled by everything in Egypt, but that is another matter.

It is an abiding shame that the idiot anti-globalisation fools opposed sensible privatisation of water services under emotive and illiterate cries of "human rights" and the like, while all too typically ignoring the fact of real costs of water services which get borne by the poor one way or another.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:07 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

August 16, 2005

Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes

A somewhat quick note building off of a comment by the esteemed Nadezhda in regards to my rapid note on a new US Gov private equity fund _{(also with more rough perso comments at Lounsbury )} backed by the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a US parastatal investment insurance and financing house whose main line of business is political risk insurance on US direct investments in risky locales.

I have been intending - and still intend to - write some commentary on this specific issue of private equity (or in general equity finance) in the MENA region, but I thought some quick notes on this OPIC backed private equity fund for the MENA region are in order, and in response to some notes by Nadezhda - whose name I have learned to spell now.

Continue reading "Pimping Equity or Pissing it Away?: Private Equity & US Gov Efforts, some quick notes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:45 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 11, 2005

Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced

At the risk of descending into flackery or something approaching it, I thought a brief comment here might be fun.

OPIC BOARD APPROVES $75 MILLION FOR MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA FUND

Certainly this plays into my personal interests.

[Updated with correction below]
[Update with a question: Is there a debate to be had here regarding using such tools for acheiving a policy goal?]

Continue reading "Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:06 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

August 02, 2005

Tsar Mubarek & Reforms for the Neo Mamlouks

An article that merits close reading and attention; in fact I believe it is deeply indicative of the real challenges in Egypt, and in some ways the wider Arab world in regards to transition costs - if in general with moderately less severity.

In Egypt's Countryside, Farmers' Anger Seen As 'Silent Time Bomb'
Recent Revolt Over Rents and Evictions Draws Support of Mubarak Opponents
By Daniel Williams
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, July 17, 2005; A16

I would cite this as something highly indicative of the real position of the Mubarek government as well as the liberal urban classes, what I might call the "kefaya" chattering classes in one of my less charitable moods (although one supposes one can validly ask if I have charitable moods). I mean by that, the generaly comfortable proper liberal opposition who rather uncomfortabley ressemble a similar opposition in the fading years of the tsarist empire in old Russia.

Continue reading "Tsar Mubarek & Reforms for the Neo Mamlouks"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

July 29, 2005

Furthering Political Integration in the Gulf Cooperation Council

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a grouping of six states on the Arabian peninsula- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE- formed in 1981. Each of the aforementioned states is an absolute monarchy that depends upon hydrocarbons as the primary source of revenue for its rentier economy. The organization’s record on cooperation thus far has been mixed. Significant decisions require the unanimous support of all six member states. The GCC acts an effective bloc only when members’ national interests coincide. However, when consensus cannot be reached, decision-making is blocked.

Continue reading "Furthering Political Integration in the Gulf Cooperation Council"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 06:45 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

July 27, 2005

On IMF, Populism, Yemen & Jordan: Populism as Self Defeat, or why subsidy riots are not wins

A small note in response to a note by our friend, the Father of Aardvark(s) _{(hmmmm, I believe that I should create an Arabised plural, and for the sheer fun of it, a broken one, so from now on, Abu Aardvark to me is Abu Araadvaraak (abusing grammar and presuming Ardvark is a compound word), or in Maghrebine form Bou Aradvrak).} on the 'victory' of the Yemani street in reversing the revision of subsidised petrol prices.

Continue reading "On IMF, Populism, Yemen & Jordan: Populism as Self Defeat, or why subsidy riots are not wins"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:09 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 26, 2005

Creating Opportunities - Liberalisation & MENA, The Micro Level

A small piece of news that I shall try to expand on, but after some little work on a Fund proposition. In the meantime, for comment and reflection.

The Moroccan business press reported an item that I would think most readers would pass over in boredom, but I find highly relevant to understanding why unemployment is so high throughout the MENA region and why liberalisation - domestic liberalisation even more so than to the global market, is so important for giving real opportunities to the populations here. And by doing so, providing alternatives to the ever more attractive nihilism of Salafist Takfiri ideology.

Continue reading "Creating Opportunities - Liberalisation & MENA, The Micro Level"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:16 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

July 07, 2005

An extended comment on IMF, Jordan discussion

As this is rather long for comments, a small entry on the IMF, Jordan and Liberalism discussion based on our esteemed co-author, ridemycamel, who again hopefully will pardon my poor manners, sharp tongue and the like.

I also note that due to popular outcry, I am introducing block quoting. I dislike it, but have to maintain some pretension to customer service or our financier will dump me. (Although it was such a pain to add I can't promise consistancy here)

Continue reading "An extended comment on IMF, Jordan discussion"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 04, 2005

IMF, Jordan and Hegemony: A Rebuttal of Sorts (Updated)

Let me engage for the first time a co-author, in particular ridemycamel in regards to his entry on the IMF.

I’ll say first of all it is intelligent, well-written, clear and concise. Incredibly wrong-headed and trapped in leftist twaddle, but well-written. I thank the author in advance for what I am sure will be an interesting reply and while I am going to whack him up side the head a number of times, it is with all due respect.

From the top then:
Financial Aid, the IMF, and Historical Structures: The Case of the Bread Riots in Jordan

Continue reading "IMF, Jordan and Hegemony: A Rebuttal of Sorts (Updated)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:56 AM | Comments (23) | TrackBack