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Economic Policy Archives
May 07, 2008
Bread & Riots
If you follow MENA news (and indeed news generally) rising food prices, coupled with rising petrol prices, have provoked for the first time in years serious concerns about food availability to the poorer segments of the population. And demos and riots. And when mass demos occur in the Middle East and North Africa, fear of regime stability gets in the air. Serious challenges for a region where the emerging free(er) markets are yet fragile. Nevertheless, the FT's arty today, Mideast reels as hunger outgrows oil earnings is bothersome.
Perhaps the lead is what is the most irritating:
For years, food policy in the Middle East and North Africa was very simple: hydrocarbon exports paid for carbohydrate imports.
A quote that then segues into issues of the non-oil exporters. My irritation is always raised when all MENA is written about as if it were the Gulf. This is not merely sloppy, it leads people, even Sr. persons, to dangerously misconstrue developments.
Continue reading "Bread & Riots"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
March 22, 2008
American Tantrums - Don't Talk to the Iranians
The Americans increasingly shrill tantrums about doing business with Iranstrike me as entirely self-defeating. Rather like the Cuban sanctions, they are likely merely to give the regime a foreign enemy and scapegoat an excuse on which to hang the consequences of its own economic incompetence. Never mind they are likely to be as successful as those stunningly successful Cuban sanctions (whose main purpose seems to be preventing Americans from vacationing on the cheap, but no matter, all the better for the aficionados of non-tradable products Cuban).
Childish idiocy and tantrums, wishful thinking and gradiosity seem to be what one is in for until this current band of incompetents in the US is out of power. Nine long months, if the cretins don't drive themselves into a currency collapse.
Meanwhile, I would think the US Treasury has better things to do with its time than haranguing the world about the risks of doing business with Iranian financial firms. It might do well to worry about the risks of doing business with American financial firms.
Continue reading "American Tantrums - Don't Talk to the Iranians"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 03, 2008
Dollars, Gulf Politics & MENA Economies, tip, tiptoeing...
Without extended commentary, I draw attention to The Financial Times report that Qatar is considering breaking the dollar peg, following Kuwait and certainly if it does so putting a nail in the coffin of the original vision of the unified Gulf currency zone.
The report, which if realized, would make Qatar the 2nd after Kuwait to break the strict dollar peg, highlights a feedback between the current American Administration's profligate fiscal policy -itself tied to a frankly delusional foreign policy that has by evident incompetence as well as imperial overreaching damaged credibility generally [never mind the exact politics]- and regional politics and policy. Make no mistake, the dollar peg has long been as much a politic as an economic statement.
Of course taking such a step in an environment like the present is economically rational - above all if one believes that one is entering a period of long term dollar weakness or instability, although a more flexible exchange regime is generically usually a better thing regardless of the specific dollar issues.
Continue reading "Dollars, Gulf Politics & MENA Economies, tip, tiptoeing..."
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:51 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
December 11, 2007
Releasing Built-Up Labor Tension
The floodgates have opened. It is the beginning of the end for serious labor repression in the UAE, and the rest of the Gulf is likely to follow. Dubai's employers have been forced to negotiate with (illegally) organized labor and come out second-best.
Organized labor has never had it good in the Gulf. The armies of foreign construction workers - there are 700,000 in the UAE alone - live in overcrowded and unhygienic quarters, work in unsafe conditions, have no political rights, and are banned from collective bargaining. They can't even switch jobs when their employers fail to pay them, as happens all too often. Over the past couple of years, a depreciation in the value of local currencies pegged to the dollar has meant they have been able to send less money home than ever before, rendering many unable to support families they were forced to leave behind, even as high inflation has eaten into their purchasing power in the Gulf. Meanwhile, demand for workers has surged with a building boom brought about by high oil prices.
Continue reading "Releasing Built-Up Labor Tension"
Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 11:17 AM | Comments (18) | TrackBack
November 10, 2007
MENA Reform: Dead Hand of the State & Great Cairo
Returning to issues financial and economic, and in homage to our classic Cairo building post from 2005, I draw attention to a fine, if short, article in The Financial Times on the nefast influence of the dead hand of the Egyptian state, and the politics of pious posturing on the living standards and housing quality in Cairo, the Great Dump.
A few key items to highlight, as they are general lessons for the region, and indeed for emerging markets, largely around the failure of socialist and unrealistic, indeed wooley headed "progressive Left" interventionism.
Continue reading "MENA Reform: Dead Hand of the State & Great Cairo"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
September 04, 2007
Incentives and Accountability in Gulf Labor Markets
If the penalty for shooting someone was a $12 fine, and a warning that repeat offenders might lose access to firearms, what would happen? The murder rate would shoot up. We rely on incentives and disincentives to promote or dissuade against all sorts of things, from charitable giving to compliance with the law.
Continue reading "Incentives and Accountability in Gulf Labor Markets"
Posted by dubaiwalla at 12:15 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
September 02, 2007
Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows
My favourite newspaper, as a running dog of an anglo saxon ultra liberale as the francophones like to style me (well except the running dog part, it not being in the idioma) The Financial Times has a fine series on Remittances, or in more ordinary language, money sent home by 3rd Worlders working outside of home country.
Funny these terms. Leaving this aside, remittances is quite a hot topic in the financial world, both in policy and in the money making parts, because the volumes are huge and our grubby little minds always think there must be ways to do interesting things with cash flows. More prosaically, the development people are all atwitter that:
In many developing countries today, more money comes from remittances than from foreign aid, foreign investment or even traditional exports. In Central America, remittances have long eclipsed traditional agricultural mainstays such as coffee and bananas. Migrants send more money to Morocco than tourists spend there. In some small countries – Lebanon, Serbia, Haiti, Tonga, Albania and Jamaica are all examples – remittances generate more revenues than all merchandise exports put together. The latest World Bank figures list 14 countries where migrants’ earnings account for 15 per cent or more of economic output, ranging from Moldova with 38 per cent to Jamaica with 16.4 per cent.
So there must be ways to make this money work better than merely supporting consumption, they say!
On the other side, and this is particularly true for marginally financially literate American government officials, there is this huge obsession with hawala (their mot phare, having just learned it, and thinking it applicable everywhere in - what do they call it, the silly little American provincials, BMENA or GMENA (Broader / Greater MENA), (1) and transfers (informal or otherwise) as terror financing. Apparently insensible to the data indicating nothing much in the way of money laundering as such has been involved in al Qaeda acts despite much fevered talk.
Continue reading "Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
July 25, 2007
Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Stability and Investment
Some time back a good friend of mine in the Maghrebine banking community asked me my thoughts on what would happen if The Parti la Justice et le Développement (Justice & Development Party), the moderate Islamist party in Morocco won the upcoming elections - as they would clearly do in any free election, from an investment flow point of view. Or more succinctly - would people like me take money out of the market, re-balance to Tunisia, etc.
My answer was "depends" - although Moroccan politics is not something I follow terribly closely, PJD actually in the economic sphere has always struck me as being fairly economically liberal (given the francophone and Arab world benchmarks that is) - and I opined that us Anglo Saxon investors would actually like to see a government with better roots and thus probably better ability to move economic liberalisation forward. I was worried, though, that this answer might be too me. I submit, then, the results of the Turkish elections and London's reactioin as partial indication my gut read is on target.
(See also Abu Aardvark's thoughts on Arab world reaction to the elections and in particular re the pseudo-secularist "Moderates")
Continue reading "Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Stability and Investment"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:17 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack
July 22, 2007
Dubai's New Erection Penetrates Foe China Entry's Position
Why are you looking at me like that? Stop it. The internal structure of the new under-construction Burj Dubai tower has just passed the height of the rival entry in the world's tallest building competition, Taiwan-Republic of China's Taipei 101 tower. The Burj is now 1,667 feet (sorry, I don't do metric). The question: is there any value or significance to such structures? It looks horrible at this stage; is the final version decent? And no. The caption wrote itself. Grow up. (Update: Taipei 101 - I think it's ugly too.)
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:45 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
May 23, 2007
The never ending list of new bans in Islamic finance
Before I mention this amusing theoretical case of a usurious zero interest rate, a few comments about today’s FT Alphaville’s entry on Islamic finance:
Islamic finance - based on a strict interpretation of the Koran that bans the use of interest in transactions
Usury. The Quran bans usury. What the Quran explicitly bans isn’t the topic of the Islamic finance debate. It’s whether any amount of interest constitutes usury.
Concepts such as derivatives and hedge funds, for example, are considered particularly controversial, given the Koran’s ban on gharar (speculation).
Ben Smith, the author of this entry really needs to get his info outside Tora Bora, because there’s no such ban whatsoever in the Quran. The discussion about gharar comes from some hardly known jurisprudence, and it's not even a prohibition. Even the obscure ramblings of those yawn provoking troglodytes have a more nuanced (well, confused) view on it than the one presented above.
Continue reading "The never ending list of new bans in Islamic finance"
Posted by Shaheen at 12:31 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
May 05, 2007
The Forex Wall
I’ve hit it again. The Lounsbury and I have had a brief exchange about this some time ago, and I just discussed it with a Moroccan acquaintance. The guy’s an accountant. Morocco or Tunisia, to quote only those examples among many other Arab countries, impose trade restrictions when it comes to foreign currencies.
The argument I’m given in support for those restrictions is invariably the same: everyone will rush to buy foreign currencies, and the country will have a shortage of it. That such an argument comes from an accountant is puzzling. It totally ignores the fact that markets would automatically balance that demand. If some little buddy is ready to sell his house for a couple of euros, then he must be a moron of epic proportions. And if one’s worried about the resulting exchange rate, then there definitely are ways to control them through market mechanisms.
Continue reading "The Forex Wall"
Posted by Shaheen at 01:11 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
April 26, 2007
Finance 101 for Muslims
It is sad to say this, but finance is to today’s Muslims what medicine or astronomy was to medieval Europeans. I’m so sick of coming across people condemning themselves to poverty because they decided to follow the widespread confusion promoted by ulemas who are criminally ignorant about finance and even about traditional Islamic jurisprudence itself. So here, I decided to write this intro to finance in the hope that it will enlighten at least some of the Muslims who are hesitant when it comes to dealing with interests.
I’ll try to make it as simple as possible and will avoid circus monkeys jargon, sometimes even overly simplifying for clarity’s sake. It’s for lay people, so finance geeks look away, or your eyes are going to hurt. This is very long, so here are the sections:
I The law of gravity: supply and demand
II Money’s just an asset
III The time value of money
IV Risk
V Putting it together: interest rates
VI You do want that loan: why borrowing is necessary
VII The fallacies behind Islamic finance
VIII Islamic jurisprudence and the case of the last Caliphate
IX Pass it on
Continue reading "Finance 101 for Muslims"
Posted by Shaheen at 03:12 AM | Comments (29) | TrackBack
April 05, 2007
Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town
Youssef Boutros Ghali, Egypt's Minister of Finance, will be giving his take -- perhaps a bad choice of words -- on the economy of Nile-dom right here in Potomac River City, aka Washington D.C., on Thursday, April 12 (reserve at the CATO Institute by 11 April). Full details are below the break, and here, the most important of which is "Cato Forums and luncheons are free of charge." D.C area Aqoulites are required to go, if they are below 32 and in any kind of University. Meanwhile, informed comments from all on the subject, including from our own regional finance hyperinformed but Masrophobic resident Id, are welcome.
Continue reading "Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:16 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
March 06, 2007
Iraq Oil Law Discussion
Somewhat tardily, but at reader request, a note on the new Iraqi oil law bill in cabinet, as reported in the FT.
My quick reaction: meaningless bollocks. My longer reaction, bloody idiotic meaningless bollocks just like the fucking schools painted and other such nonsense that only idiotic innocents with no fucking sense of fucking reality will get excited about. There are no economics to discuss. There is no way to model having your pipelines constantly cut and if you're in Kurd Land, the Kurds losing control of their production, a political threat of no small probability.
Reader reactions welcome.
[NB: corrected some idiotic early AM grammatical blunders, linking idiocies and the like-CL 7 march]
Continue reading "Iraq Oil Law Discussion"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:19 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
February 17, 2007
Arab unity, saved by the dinar
In the latest of Qaddafi's changes of mood, it has been decided to impose a visa to Maghrebi citizens visiting Libya among others. This is not the first violation of the agreements that guarantee freedom of movement in the Maghreb. But while violating agreements in MENA is a common sport that might have little impact in practice - most of them haven't been worth the paper they're written on since their inception - this one in particular could have seriously hurt the interests of both Tunisia and Libya itself.
Continue reading "Arab unity, saved by the dinar"
Posted by Shaheen at 07:09 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
February 03, 2007
Khaleejization: Background Information
The Arab Gulf countries have long relied on foreign labor to keep their economies running. Nationals largely work in cushy government jobs that pay above-market wages and require relatively few hours. This was part of the bargain the royal families struck with their populations- no representation, no taxation. By contrast, private sectors in the Gulf are dominated by expatriates. With the partial exception of certain kinds of managers, the latter are compensated poorly and work long hours.
Continue reading "Khaleejization: Background Information"
Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 08:52 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Abu Dhabi Strikes Back
For generations, the rulers of the Arabian peninsula have been rivals. In the past, they vied for the loyalties of the nomadic tribes of the region. Today, their competition centers around their economies. Flush with oil revenues, they have striven to outdo one another in building businesses and cities.
Continue reading "Abu Dhabi Strikes Back"
Posted by dubaiwalla at 12:58 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
January 12, 2007
Pan-Arab Trade: Never Missing an Occasion to Miss...
Rather than go on with the stunningly depressing issues of American blundering about in the MENA region and environs, I am off a mood to poke a stick in the eye of Pan-Arab cooperation, or perhaps better, Pan-Arab whinging on about cooperation without any real intention to cooperate.
The underlying article here is in French, from the Moroccan business journal, La Vie Eco, a decent enough publication, and discusses the problems that several much ballyhooed (or feared, depending on the perspective) free trade agreements between the Arab Med and generally Arab states have gone nowhere. Amusingly I recalled the head of Al Ahram al Iqtissadi telling me several years ago that all these agreements would go right into the freezer. Sadly that appears to be the case.
The why of the rather predictable fate of these efforts is perhaps a more interesting question than the actual failure, as the failure of cooperation - even on the relatively limited sub-regional scale - often surprises, but worse than surprises, is a positive drag on the region.
Continue reading "Pan-Arab Trade: Never Missing an Occasion to Miss..."
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:48 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
December 01, 2006
Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy
The slow motion disaster that is Iraq has come to bore me, now that I have written off personal interests there (although as an aside, now one doesn't cease to get offers to take part in US reconstruction - sorry boys, too late. In '03 I would have done it. Now you're 3 years down the road to utter catastrophe, not a bloody chance).
However, as part of the larger wreckage of US policy, that remains sadly a major but largely negative driver in the region (not due to overall intentions, but realism of how and on what schedule said intentions can be implemented - which is to say due to the utterly magical fairy-dust approach they insist on taking) one has to be interested in Iraq and US MENA policy which surrounds it and is in part driven by the fiasco.
Continue reading "Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
November 12, 2006
Dirty Little Secrets: Labour Exploitation in the UAE
To get away from US centered whanking on, and away from the depressing subjects of Iraq or Palestine, a quick reference to a very timely article in FT on labour exploitation in the UAE .
An open secret of course, if one can say a secret at all.
Continue reading "Dirty Little Secrets: Labour Exploitation in the UAE"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:38 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
October 22, 2006
Memo from Dubai
It seems worthwhile to draw attention to an interesting article in NYT on Dubai and culture clashes, one which I think despite some superficialities is actually quite interesting. Stemming from a recent local Expat paper's admonishment to respect local culture a bit, it appears to have set off some reaction. I frankly agree with the admonition.
I also found the illustrating image amusing as the inappropriate couple behind the Emirati clique is so very clearly Leb.
Continue reading "Memo from Dubai"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:14 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
October 06, 2006
Dubai, the Attraction
A quick note to draw attention to a recent arty by Roula Khalaf of FT on Dubai and the why behind its success to date: Dubai cultivates oasis of calm where Arab business life can flourish.
The main thrust of the article is to highlight some of the why behind Dubai's success to date, beyond just stupid amounts of capital. Although that is a clear major condition, it is not a sufficient one as the other petro-giants of the region never managed to achieve Dubai's success (even if we mitigate our appreciation of the success by noting a definately unsustainable aspect doped by too much liquidity chasing too few quality assets).
Despite my own critical attitude towards Dubai - much is clearly illusion and can not survive, there are also clear lessons with respect to the ability of the Arab/MENA region entreprenurial classes actually being able to flourish when a moderately liberal (quite liberal for the off-shore aspects) business environment is established. I do note that some of - indeed in some ways much of Dubai's liberalism is rather Potemkin liberalism insofar as it is all of a very temporary, Enlightened Despot Suffrage quality. That being said, if one takes Dubai with a grain of salt, it does illustrate via its off-shore business services sector the degree to which Arabo-Muslim entrepreneurship is seeking a place to flourish away from the dead hand of the state, and the degree to which even in the temporary, Prince-dependent liberalism of Dubai seems vastly attractive in a world where the West is growing stupidly more hostile to Arabo-Islamic money.
Continue reading "Dubai, the Attraction"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
September 27, 2006
Solidarity, Reg: Maghreb, Outsourcing and Reaction
One of the issues that the United States has gotten right in MENA is its sometime concentration (when the gross fabulists that are political leadership of the Bush Administration are not dreaming up imaginary and magical transformations of a New Middle East, in time to render themselves ridculous and fools, e.g. Lebanon) on economic liberalisation as means to grow the region and provide new opportunity. It would do better to focus more on seeing real liberalisation see the day, and let its completely magical thinking about democratisation fall by the wayside.
The political support for such liberalisation contrasts favourably with the absurd double talk Europe engages in with respect to economic policy, above all France (which of course is no worse and in many ways better informed than the self-decieving fabulism the Americans are engaging in on the political 'democratisation' front). The Financial Times has an important article, although one not likely to be noticed by many, on the clash between Axa unions in France and the company over its plans to outsource to the Maghreb.
Continue reading "Solidarity, Reg: Maghreb, Outsourcing and Reaction"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:47 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
September 25, 2006
Leb Land & Recon, Back to Networks
Returning to a hint I made a month ago, I find on the newswires confirmation of the scheming re buying some street cred in Lebanon after the disastrous backing of 'transformation via Israeli shells' did such a lovely job of fucking American reputation into a cocked hat.
The USD 250 million of course is better than zero, but I am having a hard time seeing effectiveness given zero on the ground networks.
Hezbullah won, and even the backstopping effort isn't very good.
[Updated with links to actual entries supra, just to prove The Lounsbury is ahead of the curve]
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:17 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
September 15, 2006
Futile Bollocks and Banking
Although I remain rather too busy to contribute as I would like and should, the Generator is too embarassing to have as the lead item, so a comment on an important piece of idiocy by the Americans: their attempt to shut the Iranians out of the financial markets unilaterally: US threatens further action against Iranian banks.
I frankly find such interventions borderline retarded, as well as self-defeating, leaving aside the willy nilly confusion of Hezbullah with al Qaeda in such rhetoric. Incoherence.
Continue reading "Futile Bollocks and Banking"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
August 22, 2006
Rigidities & Employment: Small Details, Large Effects
In my small note last week, on MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans our colleague Shaheen rightly raised the issue of negative effects of apparently small issues as well as the negative impact of what I might call "sand in the wheels" - such as heavy visa regulations that can kill time sensitive deals - an increasingly common issue in a world of accelerating decision cycles.
Aside from the conversation in comments on the challenges of visas for the entrepreneur looking to build exports (as I note, supposedly a key policy concern for the US), my own suggestion with respect to visa services was rightly critiqued for the remaining bureaucratic braking effect.
Continue reading "Rigidities & Employment: Small Details, Large Effects"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:44 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
July 28, 2006
Be Saudi: Hire a Saudi
That is the message on a billboard that towers above Saudi cities and attempts to call upon the patriotism of Saudis when the many Saudisation schemes have failed. "Saudisation" is the process of mandatory government-sponsored affirmative action that aims to end the monopoly of expatriates, mainly in the fields of banking and government bureaucracies. The scheme initially was launched in order to get Saudis into middle management white-collar jobs but has recently descended into the realms of (shock, horror) retail businesses and supermarkets. As the Israel-Lebanon issue has now descended into the wrist-slashing realm of the depressing, I thought 'Aqoul would turn its attention to the merely-banging-head-against-the wall realm of the depressing.
Continue reading "Be Saudi: Hire a Saudi"
Posted by Meph at 10:48 AM | Comments (20) | TrackBack
June 19, 2006
Hariri's Clever Scheme
Or, where the Lebanon debt crisis came from in the first place.
So I see that Executive magazine finally has their web edition up (disclaimer: they give me money, but not to blog), which means I can point to this Nick Photidiates article on the Lebanese national debt and how the banking sector is tied up in it. According to him, it all came down to decisions Rafik Hariri made when he originally took power.
Continue reading "Hariri's Clever Scheme"
Posted by tomscud at 08:23 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
May 29, 2006
On Iraq, Dinars & Informed Comment: Some Reflexions
Due to some misunderstanding, I thought I would make a follow-up comment on a semi-private email exchange on Iraq
The context then: I wrote Professor Cole of Informed Comment regarding a relatively tangential statement there regarding Iraqi dinars, monetary policy and some statement by Amer Taheri regarding the stability of the currency. Cole withdrew his original characterisation re Taheri, but then followed up with further comment, mentioning yours truly in both. Given the excuse, I thought I should correct some misapprehensions, as well as abusively ramble on, these being my core competencies, about currency valuation, Iraq and the like, perhaps secondarily some gratuitous abuse of various parties for my own personal entertainment.
Continue reading "On Iraq, Dinars & Informed Comment: Some Reflexions"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:21 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
May 23, 2006
Dubai Glitter - Union troubles
While not having much substantive to add, I thought that before this aged too much, that some attention should be brought to a recent FT article on on unions, entitled "Union troubles start to emerge from Dubai's glittering facades' published 19 May.
The article covers material that we here at Aqoul have touched upon, effectively the signs that the impoverished sub Con workers who make up the spine of the vast construction site that is Dubai are finally starting to crack under the pressure of low wages, rising costs, and just plain near slavery conditions.
The article bears a quick reading, as well as pondering whether UAE aspirations (to US FTA, to other goodies) will force change. I would bet that the government takes a bail out angle. After all, among the drivers of the last few weeks of unrest has been that labourers have been crushed between escalating housing and general living costs, and low wages.
An obvious Dubai type solution is to have the Emirate provide mass worker housing somewhere, allowing companies to externalise housing costs (or continue to do so to be more accurate).
Part of the usual indirect and obscure subsidy approach the Emirates have grown to love. Might even be an efficient solution.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
May 20, 2006
Islamic Finance - Scholar Shortages
Some weeks ago one of your fine 'Aqoul authors raised the issue of Islamic finance, and its present situation.
While perhaps less sexy than the faux-reports of Iranian Nazi-esque clothing restrictions on minorities, understanding a bit about economic developments in the region is more useful to readers wanting to actually have a sense of MENA developments (as opposed to merely whanking on in general ignorance about the horrors of the Arab world, etc), and The Financial Times has been running quite a number of interesting articles on the region - well actually about the Gulf, but the confusion of Gulf with all of MENA/Arab world is so general I almost cannot complain.
Continue reading "Islamic Finance - Scholar Shortages"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:31 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack
May 16, 2006
Maghrebine Media II
Now that we have had our little side trip on Somali-Dutch immigration politics (fulfilling all desire on my part to touch on the same, although at Reason.com one can pursue one’s desire to comment on the irrational reactions) , I thought I might return to something rather more profound, that being media in the Maghreb and the recent Moroccan steps to liberalisation.
Continue reading "Maghrebine Media II"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
May 15, 2006
Maghrebine Media Makeovers: Morocco Issues Radio & TV Licenses - Liberalising or Potemkin Media
Following up on some prior exchanges with Issandr Bey of The Arabist, I thought I might take a moment to give a summary of the results of an item we touched on, liberalisation of the Moroccan broadcast market. Let me also try to do some value added original commentary as well, if only for the novelty value – I have terribly neglected such in my long-whinging on about tumours and the like.
The Conseil supérieur de la communication audiovisuelle (CSCA) issued the first approvals for private broadcast licenses (excepting some limited prior efforts), one television via satellite by the Médi 1 group, Médi1 Sat, and 11 radio projects.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:43 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
May 11, 2006
Dubai: Economic Cannibalisation?
FT's William Wallace - a reporter working from Cairo who I am coming to look forward to - has an interesting article on Dubai, Building ambition raises Middle East financial stakes, that merits a read by those of us who follow the place.
The shortest version, speculation that the Dubai model of free zones and specialised development "cities" is reaching the end of its logic with its proliferation in Dubai and copying of the concept among on the part of neighbours, as in Qatar. I beleive there is something to this, the issue of diminishing returns off of the strategy.
Continue reading "Dubai: Economic Cannibalisation?"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
May 04, 2006
Morocco, Journos and Media bis, a reply
Encore comment
This is a bit tardy, but Issandr Bey of the Arabist had a comment on my somewhat ill-tempered take on the Moroccan journal, Le Journal Hebdo libel case judgment as well as more generally on the media there and some related developments.
As a distraction from working on a market proposal which I haven’t got the proper information on regardless, I thought I might expand on my comment on The Arabist reply.
Continue reading "Morocco, Journos and Media bis, a reply"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:47 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
April 29, 2006
Dubai Buy II: Revenge of the UAE
According to the New York Times:
President Bush is expected on Friday to announce his approval of a deal under which a Dubai-owned company would take control of nine plants in the United States that manufacture parts for American military vehicles and aircraft, say two administration officials familiar with the terms of the deal. . . .
Continue reading "Dubai Buy II: Revenge of the UAE"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
April 11, 2006
Morocco: Pimping Pleasure or Stalling Out? (Economist)
The present Economist contains an intriguing article covering part of my brief, and a somewhat neglected corner of the MENA world, Morocco. Morocco attracts rather little attention in the "Anglo Saxon" world, despite having racked up some interesting political and economic wins in the past year, so perhaps a quick commentary then on the article, and the state of things in this rather strategically located country.
Continue reading "Morocco: Pimping Pleasure or Stalling Out? (Economist)"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:13 AM | Comments (26) | TrackBack
April 06, 2006
Labour Rights in the Gulf
For decades now, the Gulf countries have built themselves up using a combination of abundant capital and cheap labour. Owing to their relatively small population bases and large oil revenues, importing workers from poor neighboring countries has been easy. Since the 1960s, each decade has seen a large rise in the numbers of expatriates in the Gulf. Proportions vary between the various countries, but the numbers are highest in the UAE, where non-citizens account for some 85% of the population and over 90% of the workforce (including 98% of the private sector).
Continue reading "Labour Rights in the Gulf"
Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 12:42 AM | Comments (16) | TrackBack
March 10, 2006
DPW, Some Round Up Thoughts on the Blow Back
I shall make this briefish note as the DPW fiasco continues to steam ahead. In many ways this is good for me personally as I expect increased in-region / non-US flows for MENA money. But it is bad for investment in the US, bad for US MENA policy and reveals as clearly as clear can be the deep vein of anti-Arab bigotry hiding beneath the surface in the United States. A loss for moderation, a loss for state security interests and a loss for economic efficiency and investment in key assets. Yes, bravo to ignorant know-nothing racist jingoism. This blows back not only to commerce, but also to our pious middle conversation, make no mistake about it.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:35 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
March 09, 2006
Score One Own Goal for US Know-Nothing Nativist Bigotry & General Islamophobia
Well, the irrational forces of bigotted know-nothing nativism and bigotted Islamophobia won out, DPW has finally said fuck it, keep poorly run ports, we'll take the profitable parts of P&O , or as the statement went,
“Because of the strong relationship between the United Arab Emirates and the US, and to preserve that relationship...DP World will transfer fully the US operation of P&O Ports North America Inc to a United States entity,” Edward Bilkey, the company’s chief operating officer, said in a statement.
Only yesterday the head, Mr Sharaf,
acknowledged ... that the US facilities were a small part of the deal and less profitable than other P&O container terminals. His remarks came as the White House appeared to soften its support for the deal and the House of Representatives pressed ahead with plans to block the transaction.
It is also of note that private equity groups, smelling blood in the water,
have approached DP World about buying the US operations, people familiar with the matter said. Industry observers said logical candidates included Blackstone and Macquarie, the Australian bank.
Well, mark one of up for the forces of blind bigotry and irrational anti-Arab xenophobia with all the dark hand waving about "connexions" and "associations" and the utter inability to distinguish between Saudiyah and the rest of the Arab world.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:08 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
March 05, 2006
Dubai: Some Background
For those members of our readership who hadn't come across Dubai before the P&O deal hit the headlines, here is some basic information about the city.
If you were to arrive in Dubai and look at all the glass and concrete buildings, you might easily believe yourself at first to be in a medium-to-large American city. This is not true – the city runs along rather different lines from any in the West, and similarities are often only superficial. However, there is one important way in which Dubai resembles the United States: the business of Dubai is business.
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Posted by dubaiwalla at 10:43 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
Bedfellows & Commerce: Israel's Zim Lines Supports DPW (Updated)
Sadly my work is distracting me from the fun of the ongoing Bigotted Know Nothing Nativist Ignoramus Mob Madness surrounding DPW's takeover of UK's P&O and the incidental acquisition of the operating leases for port operations at six major US ports (although in the UK and globally sanity has prevailed*), I wanted to augment my dear friend and colleague, Secret Dubai's post on Israeli support for Dubai and DPW with specific reference to the Israeli shipping line Zim's statement of support; I should say it comes as no surprise to anyone with experience in the region that some Israelis would step forward on this, even in a politically delicate situation - not so oddly it is the moderates on all sides trying to do business that know each other.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:57 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
February 25, 2006
Right Punditocracy Defends UAE Port Deal
Not to sully Aqoul too much with USA domestic blustery, but it appears some of the heavy weight right punditocracy is weighing in against knee-jerk opposition to the Dubai Ports World indirect purchase of US ports operations via its purchase of a British company's interests.
Bill O'Reilly: "For now, the cold truth is that the U.S.A. will not win the war on terror without the help of nations like the United Arab Emirates. We simply cannot afford to fire that nation. If we lose these people, we'll lose the war."
Lawrence Kudlow: "This whole brouhaha surrounding the Bush administration’s green-light to a United Arab Emirates company slated to manage six major U.S. ports has nothing to do with protecting homeland security. Allow me to give it its proper name: Islamophobia."
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Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:17 PM | Comments (25) | TrackBack
February 20, 2006
Invert This! Dangerous Yield Curves, Global Economy & MENA
Not to distract from the hot and overheated issues like the UAE -- excuse me, the {dramatic music} ARAB -- firm acquiring US port operations for its greasy Semite terror-mitts; or the obscure Danish cartoons wherein Muslims worldwide have found a cause for disproportionate outrage, in preference to their own local horrible conditions, or the tens of thousands of insulting movies, texts, speeches and fiction already out there.
But am I the only one noticing -- ok I am not, but it's sure quiet -- that the US Treasury yield curve is doing one of its periodic dangerous inversions? In a world of hyperliquidity and low real return (UAE equity market as MENA example?), and undervalued pressurized Chinese currency (my prediction for a bigger than expected global shock when the renminbi is properly revalued), could this mean a downturn that will affect the current climate in MENA, not to mention worldwide?
Eco-people: help me out. Should the prudent be stuffing their dirhams in the mattresses?
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 03:24 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack
February 19, 2006
Ports, Prejudice & Cartoons: On Hypocrisy, Xenophobia and Danger
The emerging US controversy over Dubai Port World (an atrocious name I may add, even DP World is bad - hereafter at 'Aqoul, DPW) buying out historic UK port operator P&O - which incidentally includes a portfolio of US assets.
That unfortunate fact - a portfolio of US assets, which is to say management interests in six US ports on the United States Eastern Sea Board - has occasioned the exposure of a vein of ugly sentiment and public commentary, as well as typical for the "blogosphere" blind and ill-informed reaction. Another confirmation that Right and Left blog authors’ sneering with respect to the real media is badly misplaced.
This post – which will be updated and moved forward as I develop it – is intended to correct the poorly-informed xenophobic knee-jerking on Left and Right.
(I note in the interim that the fine American habit of turning everything into a lawsuit has emerged already as Maimi "Firm Sues to Block Foreign Port Takeover" per the WP, which pimps the security fallacy.)
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:00 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack
On Morocco, Investment & Islamist Promotion
Without further comment In Morocco, a Gray Area for Growth, by Hoagland, a not bad op-ed (if superficial factually) that at least poses challenges to some of the more simple minded phobia with respect to Islamism.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 17, 2006
MENA Investment & FDI: Oh my, they control our ports (Updated: Dubai & US Ports)
Foreign direct investment often provokes among the less than economically literate frightened reactions about loss of control - sometimes justified but in general, not. That politicians exploit tribal fears of foreigners controlling the jewels of the nation (whichever nation) is perhaps not surprising. It is always depressing. As we pass through a small storm of Islamic versus Western tensions, it is not surprising that the forces of unreason, emotive fear sweeping MENA, etc. have had an influence.
[Update: related post chez my Lounsbury den of iniquity, with respect to blog commentary and xenophobia, a small obs and question posed.]
[Update II: My coyness aside, a discussion of the Dubai Port World - US Ports issue broke at at the above commentary linked at Lounsbury - after some obligatory beating of a sensless commentator sensless.]
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:56 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
February 01, 2006
Foreign Workers and Labour Rights in the Gulf
Last year I attended a Sunni-Shia wedding for an old friend of mine (this is an entry on its own, but for another time). It was a truly international affair with guests from North America, Europe, the Mideast, Africa and Asia. One of bride’s relatives flew in from the UAE with her husband, two young children and two nannies in tow. One nanny for each child of course: a young south Indian man for the boy and a Filipino woman for the girl. Both children were absolutely insufferable and threw tantrums constantly, only to be whisked out of sight or amused in a desperate fashion by their respective nannies until they settled down. After a time I began to suspect the boy was developmentally delayed (this is not simply because he was supremely irritating, there were clearly speech issues), but it seemed as though neither parent had noticed. His nanny, barely literate and sweet-natured, was tasked mainly with keeping the child happy, clean and well-fed. He clearly did not have the authority to discipline, a fact that the boy realized and used to his advantage. The girl was somewhat quieter, but the dynamic with her nanny was largely the same. Both nannies were subjected to verbal and physical abuse by their tiny and tyrannical charges, but they bore it gamely, if at times wearily. The parents, while not overtly classist/racist, were still very condescending when interacting with "the help". Naturally, their children noticed and imitated this behaviour.
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Posted by eerie at 09:35 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
January 25, 2006
Maghreb & Islamic Liberalism: Superficialities & Hope for a Liberalising State, Islamic Feminism, etc
Returning to commentary, although forewarning this is post chemo and may lack a certain clarity:
Via Daniel Drezner's post on That's some interesting Islam in Morocco, I found this article from Der Spiegel on Morocco - one of my favourite countries in the MENA region - discussing Mohammed VI's efforts to modernise the socio-political culture:
The Quiet Revolution: Morocco's King Aims To Build a Modern Islamic Democracy
by Helene Zuber.
Compare, by the way, to this article from almost six years ago:
New Hope, Old Frustrations - Morocco: the point of change
by the ever Left Ramonet.
An interesting, but rather flawed article I would say.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:06 PM | Comments (2) |