Economic Development Archives

March 26, 2008

Fear & Food - MENA Inflation (Open Commentary)

I have (as our site authors can verify) a draft on the issues of dating a month - an indictment of my writing time - on this issue (generally), but sadly this has to wait for more free time. At the same time this is a hot and frankly useful topic. Thus, while I haven't done up my proper commentary, an open note on this issue I think useful.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:52 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

March 02, 2008

Explosions and MENA - never mind the political bollocks

A rather overlooked article, if I am not mistaken, and certainly complementary to my last post from The New York Times on basic cost of living inflation in MENA.

While it is easy to be critical of some simplistic details in the article, never mind background economics, the reality is clear and this anecdotal article conveys it. Basic cost of living in both oil and non-oil states is escalating at rapid rates, agiven global commodity prices in food and basic goods (and, yes, energy), and that is hitting an emerging lower and proper middle class hard.

Worse, this is coming off of barely realised gains in the past 5 years (for the 'new' professional or semi-professional middle or quasi middle classes).

I don't care much for the whanking on about party political manoeuvres in any given country - but if readers want to worry, bloody well worry less about momentary ebb and flow of political liberalisation (damned bollocks if you ask me, cart before the bloody horse). Rather worry about basic cost of living inflation hitting an emerging class of people that could, with a bit of time, actually support and drive economic and secondarily political reform knocking back the rent seeking elites. This is, to be blunt, fundamentally dangerous. Micro-cosmically, a domestic driven development like this in Egypt in the 80s helped driven a minority of Egyptian 'up coming almost middle classes' into radicalism. Flat line poverty and stagnation is less dangerous, ceterius paribus, than almost comfortable people being pushed suddently into stagnation and declinging fortunes. Sadly the American Administration seems incapable of intelligently and pro-actively managing its own (self generated) economic problems, let alone global risks.

Leave aside whanking on about the Awakenings, and other Iraq rubbish - dig into the background on cost of living pressures in MENA - not optimism driving.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:33 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

February 25, 2008

Economic Development, Foreign Investment and the War on Terror

Oddly via one of my investment robots, I ran across this Op Ed from Zenpundit favourite Thomas P.M. Barnett - a Strat Studies type - on the necessity to focus on promoting growth in MENA, and imp. of FDI. More important than making things go boom.

I shall leave this open to comment. I have some own reactions, which may really resolve to quibbles, to details in the Op Ed, but it is interesting to see this argument.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:15 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

February 24, 2008

Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism

Worthy of reflexion on larger tensions between economic and political reform in MENA, Bahrain seems to be going through an awkward spot in terms of political and economic reform although it is Bush ibn Bush's Khaliji wunderkind for democratisation. Nothing surprising in this, other than perhaps the qualified support of the opposition (and even that is not terribly astounding as such, given the way publicly expressed opposition generally occurs in Monarchies).

Continue reading "Bahrain: Reform and Liberalism"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 29, 2007

Happy Holidays, Your Flats Flattened, Off Plan Of Course

While the headline news for "the Broader Middle East" if one accepts including Pakistan in that is certain to attract much learned and unlearned comment (1), some fundamentals of real estate market development, or lack thereof, attract my attention. Flats flattened, off plan, if I may indulge in grim humour as the death toll from a Christmas Eve apartment collapse continues to rise nearly a week after. This hearkens back to a "classic" as eerie signs it: Cairo's Collapsing Buildings. Again, a story of a collapsing block of flats, and doubtless gross underlying corruption.

However, gross corruption is not all, as without any question the heritage of Egyptian State Socialism is as much behind the sad, indeed grossly depressing tale of Egyptian economic and social development since Nasser. Under such circumstances, where secularism was historically effectively synoymous with the ded hand of the vampire state, it is no surprise American efforts at backing faux democracy trickled away into the sand in the face of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Continue reading "Happy Holidays, Your Flats Flattened, Off Plan Of Course"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 11, 2007

Releasing Built-Up Labor Tension

The floodgates have opened. It is the beginning of the end for serious labor repression in the UAE, and the rest of the Gulf is likely to follow. Dubai's employers have been forced to negotiate with (illegally) organized labor and come out second-best.

Organized labor has never had it good in the Gulf. The armies of foreign construction workers - there are 700,000 in the UAE alone - live in overcrowded and unhygienic quarters, work in unsafe conditions, have no political rights, and are banned from collective bargaining. They can't even switch jobs when their employers fail to pay them, as happens all too often. Over the past couple of years, a depreciation in the value of local currencies pegged to the dollar has meant they have been able to send less money home than ever before, rendering many unable to support families they were forced to leave behind, even as high inflation has eaten into their purchasing power in the Gulf. Meanwhile, demand for workers has surged with a building boom brought about by high oil prices.

Continue reading "Releasing Built-Up Labor Tension"

Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 11:17 AM | Comments (18) | TrackBack

November 18, 2007

Development Idiocies & Developing Business in MENA

A short note, a rant, a bit of despair on the sheer idiocy of "economic development programs" and the combined worst of private and public sectors.

The following of course is not family friendly but does represent the frustration of one man trying to finance useful things in MENA. However, I do believe it important to discuss in a fairly brutal manner my observations (and ill-informed thoughts) on promoting investment and growth in MENA.

Continue reading "Development Idiocies & Developing Business in MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:46 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

October 18, 2007

Iraq: Lessons in Risk & Investment

I was amused to read this New York Times arty on US military "concern" over Iranian and Chinese contracting and investment in Iraq.

Aside from providing a certain amusing lesson in economic interest, there are two key lessons here:
(i) That in high risk environments, private capital is cowardly (and rightly so),
(ii) that the US has and still is trying to "do" Iraq on the cheap and without real effort - not national mobilisation despite the Good & Evil rhetoric and calls to Second World War Hollywood imagery. No, drip, drip in billions of just enough for the moment to give the semblance of serious effort to the domestic audiences.

It makes the failure in Iraq sadder, but also more amusing to have the Chinese giving lessons in risk. It also makes more ridiculous the various ill conceived and half baked "economic initiatives" the Americans have launched in MENA, and Iraq - driven more by ideological wishful and magical thinking about magic entrepreneurship and private initiative springing full-formed out of Zeus's head than real effort to drive change, their "key word" parroted constantly and tiresomely in every bloody conference they bloody show up at.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:41 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

October 09, 2007

Melting Gold and Other Financial Transactions

Having had enough of my ridiculously over-regulated stiflingly bureaucratic and extortionately expensive UK bank account, I decided to take the advice of a relative and use a highly suspect and loosely regulated local ‘hawaala’ system in order to send my monies abroad. Somewhat embarrassingly, I had never visited a hawaala branch despite at some point completing a post graduate thesis on informal money transfer systems. And here, when I say ‘branch’, I actually mean some incarnation of tertiary industry on a street corner where you can procure slightly suspect fruit and veg, go online for a pound and grab some milk at an ungodly hour when all the decent market chains had shut down.

Continue reading "Melting Gold and Other Financial Transactions"

Posted by Meph at 11:24 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack

October 02, 2007

Victory of Image and Capital: Emirates & Hollywood

Quite frankly while not entirely surprising, the Time Warner - Abu Dhabi Entertainment Hub (or city in Dubai parlance) does not strike me as a match made in heaven.

On one hand the Emirates are sucking in a certain kind of talent, but I have a hard time believing that the cost issues in the Emirates plus the lack of a vibrant real culture, a salon and artists culture as it were, can make this anything but "a 6,000 acre theme park" rather than a space "to produce Arabic-language film, TV and video games" (well maybe video games, although I still imagine doing video game Arabization is likely cheaper to do in say Cairo or even better Amman, although maybe one puts HQ in Abu Dhabi for money raising purposes).

But that the idea is being floated speaks to the problems of getting investment off the ground and also, ahem, doing business in much of the region.

Continue reading "Victory of Image and Capital: Emirates & Hollywood"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:42 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

September 29, 2007

Regarding Maghreb & Bread

Riots that is, an interesting exchange on recent disturbances in Morocco over basic staples rising prices (in French, sorry monolinguals and non-Francophones, go bloody use a substandard online translator).

Real reform, not make up...a good comment made by EcoMaroc (the blog). Important.

Meanwhile, online I read that Abbas el Fassi, mediocrity en chef is talking about ditching the Jettou government's budgetary rectitude for "investment" (i.e. likely senseless wasting of the ratepayer's money on corrupt schemes, and raising more funds domestically, crowding out of course productive investment).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:24 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

WB: Doing Business - Egypt tops reform

Well, I am most surprised: as Egypt, despite the Shrimp Eater tops the easing business race as measured by World Bank, which is to say that it's undertaken more operational reforms to make your average small business set up and running moderately less of a nightmare. I note also that there is a short and useful profile of MENA regional reforms available on this page as well as other regions.

Egypt, well given the coverage of this initial data release I have to congratulate WB with coming up with the benchmarking idea. Very useful, cross comparative (as in "what, Egypt is doing better than us" is useful. Above all as much signs of backsliding on liberalisation in the Maghreb stomping grounds (and Libya, who the bloody hell knows...)).

Continue reading "WB: Doing Business - Egypt tops reform"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 22, 2007

America's Crusade to Drive Away Arabo-Muslim Investment

Senator Schumer, ignoramus and fear-mongerer at large whose understanding of Dubai, whore entrepot of the Gulf, is that it's Al Qaeda central: "Dubai has been cited as a nexus for terrorist financing and money laundering and a 'potential crossroads' for shipping and trading linked to Iran's drive to obtain nuclear materials and technology"

Evidently despite representing New York, his literacy in matters financial is also terribly limited (or he merely is one of those Phobics post 11 Sep who are smart enough to dress up their fear of all things Islamic in other clothes), for Dubai taking a stake in NASDAQ really means fuck all (other than they're likely to be soaked just like the Japanese were in their Rockefeller Centre / NY buying spree...).

Continue reading "America's Crusade to Drive Away Arabo-Muslim Investment"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

September 04, 2007

Incentives and Accountability in Gulf Labor Markets

If the penalty for shooting someone was a $12 fine, and a warning that repeat offenders might lose access to firearms, what would happen? The murder rate would shoot up. We rely on incentives and disincentives to promote or dissuade against all sorts of things, from charitable giving to compliance with the law.

Continue reading "Incentives and Accountability in Gulf Labor Markets"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 12:15 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

September 02, 2007

Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows

My favourite newspaper, as a running dog of an anglo saxon ultra liberale as the francophones like to style me (well except the running dog part, it not being in the idioma) The Financial Times has a fine series on Remittances, or in more ordinary language, money sent home by 3rd Worlders working outside of home country.

Funny these terms. Leaving this aside, remittances is quite a hot topic in the financial world, both in policy and in the money making parts, because the volumes are huge and our grubby little minds always think there must be ways to do interesting things with cash flows. More prosaically, the development people are all atwitter that:

In many developing countries today, more money comes from remittances than from foreign aid, foreign investment or even traditional exports. In Central America, remittances have long eclipsed traditional agricultural mainstays such as coffee and bananas. Migrants send more money to Morocco than tourists spend there. In some small countries – Lebanon, Serbia, Haiti, Tonga, Albania and Jamaica are all examples – remittances generate more revenues than all merchandise exports put together. The latest World Bank figures list 14 countries where migrants’ earnings account for 15 per cent or more of economic output, ranging from Moldova with 38 per cent to Jamaica with 16.4 per cent.

So there must be ways to make this money work better than merely supporting consumption, they say!

On the other side, and this is particularly true for marginally financially literate American government officials, there is this huge obsession with hawala (their mot phare, having just learned it, and thinking it applicable everywhere in - what do they call it, the silly little American provincials, BMENA or GMENA (Broader / Greater MENA), (1) and transfers (informal or otherwise) as terror financing. Apparently insensible to the data indicating nothing much in the way of money laundering as such has been involved in al Qaeda acts despite much fevered talk.

Continue reading "Remittances & MENA, a brief reflexion on money flows"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:25 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

August 27, 2007

Economic Development, Risk Taking & Culture (or excessive attention to culture)

Taking cue from from my own Lounsbury comment, a slightly modified and updated set of thoughts on this IHT article: Egypt searches for a balance that rewards risk-takers while valuing the past, although as I said on The Lounsbury, to be fair it is an AP article.

While it has aspects of breathless gullibility, it's not without a discussion of evolving business culture...or aspirations of evolving business culture. But in advance of my comments, a few thoughts.

Continue reading "Economic Development, Risk Taking & Culture (or excessive attention to culture)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:11 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack

August 25, 2007

Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place

I must say something nice about the Washington Times, which normally has MENA-related fare along the lines of FoxNews and this type of swill. I saw this story a short time back of a travel-writer's visit to Syria in the dead-wood version, but not online. Now I see it is online. Amazingly, the writer actually seems to have taken note of the place and reported it and experienced what normal travelers there would notice, although one might find it too saccharine for its non-comments on the ubiquitous Leader & Family photos, or the pervasive poverty. Still, entitled sincerely and without guile The Kindness of Syrians, it is well done and refreshingly rooted in relevant reality; excerpts for you link-avoiders below the break. (Elsewhere on deeper questions of wealth and poverty, AbuFares has this to say; more on that at another time. Now back to the W. Times.)

Continue reading "Syria's Consideration: A Realistic Travelogue in A Surprising Place"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 15, 2007

MENA, Credit Crunches, Sovereign Funds & Fear Mongering: Expanded Thought

Expanding on an earlier Lounsbury post or three, that is the preceding on Lounsbury on Credit Crashes & MENA as well as a brief note on what I expect to be a source of fear mongering (although I may be wrong), a few thoughts on the credit melt-down and MENA. Brief and semi-stale.

Continue reading "MENA, Credit Crunches, Sovereign Funds & Fear Mongering: Expanded Thought"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:13 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

July 25, 2007

Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Stability and Investment

Some time back a good friend of mine in the Maghrebine banking community asked me my thoughts on what would happen if The Parti la Justice et le Développement (Justice & Development Party), the moderate Islamist party in Morocco won the upcoming elections - as they would clearly do in any free election, from an investment flow point of view. Or more succinctly - would people like me take money out of the market, re-balance to Tunisia, etc.

My answer was "depends" - although Moroccan politics is not something I follow terribly closely, PJD actually in the economic sphere has always struck me as being fairly economically liberal (given the francophone and Arab world benchmarks that is) - and I opined that us Anglo Saxon investors would actually like to see a government with better roots and thus probably better ability to move economic liberalisation forward. I was worried, though, that this answer might be too me. I submit, then, the results of the Turkish elections and London's reactioin as partial indication my gut read is on target.

(See also Abu Aardvark's thoughts on Arab world reaction to the elections and in particular re the pseudo-secularist "Moderates")

Continue reading "Islamist Election & Moving MENA Forward: Stability and Investment"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:17 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack

July 22, 2007

Dubai's New Erection Penetrates Foe China Entry's Position

Why are you looking at me like that? Stop it. The internal structure of the new under-construction Burj Dubai tower has just passed the height of the rival entry in the world's tallest building competition, Taiwan-Republic of China's Taipei 101 tower. The Burj is now 1,667 feet (sorry, I don't do metric). The question: is there any value or significance to such structures? It looks horrible at this stage; is the final version decent? And no. The caption wrote itself. Grow up. (Update: Taipei 101 - I think it's ugly too.)

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 02:45 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

May 23, 2007

The never ending list of new bans in Islamic finance

Before I mention this amusing theoretical case of a usurious zero interest rate, a few comments about today’s FT Alphaville’s entry on Islamic finance:

Islamic finance - based on a strict interpretation of the Koran that bans the use of interest in transactions

Usury. The Quran bans usury. What the Quran explicitly bans isn’t the topic of the Islamic finance debate. It’s whether any amount of interest constitutes usury.

Concepts such as derivatives and hedge funds, for example, are considered particularly controversial, given the Koran’s ban on gharar (speculation).

Ben Smith, the author of this entry really needs to get his info outside Tora Bora, because there’s no such ban whatsoever in the Quran. The discussion about gharar comes from some hardly known jurisprudence, and it's not even a prohibition. Even the obscure ramblings of those yawn provoking troglodytes have a more nuanced (well, confused) view on it than the one presented above.

Continue reading "The never ending list of new bans in Islamic finance"

Posted by Shaheen at 12:31 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

May 07, 2007

Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union

Sarkozy’s proposal of a Mediterranean Union have been discussed a lot by French media, but with little substance. The fact is, there aren’t many details in the proposal anyway. From his party’s website:

Je favoriserai le développement des pays pauvres, en cessant d’aider les gouvernements corrompus, en mettant en place une Union méditerranéenne avec les pays du Sud

I will favor the development of poor countries, by stopping aid to corrupt governments, by creating a Mediterranean Union with southern countries

Since most countries of the South happen to be Arab and corrupt regimes, I wonder how his pro-colonial, pro-Israeli, “anti-corrupt” attitude is going to help him cooperate in building any kind of union with them.

Continue reading "Sarkozy: The Mediterranean Union"

Posted by Shaheen at 02:54 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack

May 05, 2007

The Forex Wall

I’ve hit it again. The Lounsbury and I have had a brief exchange about this some time ago, and I just discussed it with a Moroccan acquaintance. The guy’s an accountant. Morocco or Tunisia, to quote only those examples among many other Arab countries, impose trade restrictions when it comes to foreign currencies.

The argument I’m given in support for those restrictions is invariably the same: everyone will rush to buy foreign currencies, and the country will have a shortage of it. That such an argument comes from an accountant is puzzling. It totally ignores the fact that markets would automatically balance that demand. If some little buddy is ready to sell his house for a couple of euros, then he must be a moron of epic proportions. And if one’s worried about the resulting exchange rate, then there definitely are ways to control them through market mechanisms.

Continue reading "The Forex Wall"

Posted by Shaheen at 01:11 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

April 28, 2007

France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy

As per The Lounsbury's suggestion, and following Ibn Kafka's extensive coverage of French elections, here are my two cents about them, Beurs, France and the MENA region and related economic bits.

Sunday's [May 6th] second round will most probably bring Sarkozy to French presidency. I have to say I'm very mixed up about this election. This round's vote is a matter of either gambling on Sarkozy, and risking what happened with Arab Americans, who happen to have voted George Bush in 2000, or choosing an economically destructive but marginally more risk averse community-wise choice with Segolene.

Continue reading "France reflections: elections, Beurs, MENA, economy"

Posted by Shaheen at 04:21 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

April 26, 2007

Finance 101 for Muslims

It is sad to say this, but finance is to today’s Muslims what medicine or astronomy was to medieval Europeans. I’m so sick of coming across people condemning themselves to poverty because they decided to follow the widespread confusion promoted by ulemas who are criminally ignorant about finance and even about traditional Islamic jurisprudence itself. So here, I decided to write this intro to finance in the hope that it will enlighten at least some of the Muslims who are hesitant when it comes to dealing with interests.

I’ll try to make it as simple as possible and will avoid circus monkeys jargon, sometimes even overly simplifying for clarity’s sake. It’s for lay people, so finance geeks look away, or your eyes are going to hurt. This is very long, so here are the sections:

I The law of gravity: supply and demand
II Money’s just an asset
III The time value of money
IV Risk
V Putting it together: interest rates
VI You do want that loan: why borrowing is necessary
VII The fallacies behind Islamic finance
VIII Islamic jurisprudence and the case of the last Caliphate
IX Pass it on

Continue reading "Finance 101 for Muslims"

Posted by Shaheen at 03:12 AM | Comments (29) | TrackBack

April 05, 2007

Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town

Youssef Boutros Ghali, Egypt's Minister of Finance, will be giving his take -- perhaps a bad choice of words -- on the economy of Nile-dom right here in Potomac River City, aka Washington D.C., on Thursday, April 12 (reserve at the CATO Institute by 11 April). Full details are below the break, and here, the most important of which is "Cato Forums and luncheons are free of charge." D.C area Aqoulites are required to go, if they are below 32 and in any kind of University. Meanwhile, informed comments from all on the subject, including from our own regional finance hyperinformed but Masrophobic resident Id, are welcome.

Continue reading "Well, Golly: Egyptian Finance Comes to Town"

Posted by Matthew Hogan at 08:16 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

February 03, 2007

Khaleejization: Background Information

The Arab Gulf countries have long relied on foreign labor to keep their economies running. Nationals largely work in cushy government jobs that pay above-market wages and require relatively few hours. This was part of the bargain the royal families struck with their populations- no representation, no taxation. By contrast, private sectors in the Gulf are dominated by expatriates. With the partial exception of certain kinds of managers, the latter are compensated poorly and work long hours.

Continue reading "Khaleejization: Background Information"

Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 08:52 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Abu Dhabi Strikes Back

For generations, the rulers of the Arabian peninsula have been rivals. In the past, they vied for the loyalties of the nomadic tribes of the region. Today, their competition centers around their economies. Flush with oil revenues, they have striven to outdo one another in building businesses and cities.

Continue reading "Abu Dhabi Strikes Back"

Posted by dubaiwalla at 12:58 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

December 30, 2006

Eid Mubarek and Economics

On the occasion of wishing, to the extent I am capable of such, readers Happy Holidays, Eid Mubarek and similar canned sentiments, a quick suggestion.

For the Islamic world, the Eid is a great time to reflect on the current inefficiencies in the markets, on why one can't do haouli forward contracts for an Eid delivery on a sheep, and generally on how consumption spikes in MENA reveal failures in the subsidies systems.

You might take time to reflect if an Islamic MBA would help introduce such ideas into conservatives venues, or ask what private investment may actually be doing. Regardless, the region is tipping on the edge of catastrophe due to the Americans' incompetence, but I remain hopefull that other trends, like massive amounts of capital and investment will tide things over.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:27 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 01, 2006

Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy

The slow motion disaster that is Iraq has come to bore me, now that I have written off personal interests there (although as an aside, now one doesn't cease to get offers to take part in US reconstruction - sorry boys, too late. In '03 I would have done it. Now you're 3 years down the road to utter catastrophe, not a bloody chance).

However, as part of the larger wreckage of US policy, that remains sadly a major but largely negative driver in the region (not due to overall intentions, but realism of how and on what schedule said intentions can be implemented - which is to say due to the utterly magical fairy-dust approach they insist on taking) one has to be interested in Iraq and US MENA policy which surrounds it and is in part driven by the fiasco.

Continue reading "Tipping the Wrong Way: MENA & US Policy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

November 24, 2006

Labor Rights in the UAE: An Update

In the UAE, a new agreement means middlemen are to be cut out of the labor supply chain bringing workers to the country from four countries that serve as major sources of manpower.

If the agreement works, it will go a long way towards bridging the gap between what workers expect when they leave their home countries, and what they actually receive. However, this is a big 'if,' especially given the the number of regulations regarding workers that already exist but remain unenforced. Nevertheless, the agreement would serve the interests of both workers themselves and the companies that hire them. Workers are often cheated by unscrupulous agents into illegally paying large sums of money to secure jobs, and these funds are often secured by pawning the family jewelry or through loansharks charging exorbitant interest rates. When the workers in question find out how much they will actually be paid, they are not happy. All too often, low morale- also caused by poor working conditions- has led to work disruptions, as workers have put down their tools in protest.

Continue reading "Labor Rights in the UAE: An Update"

Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 10:20 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

November 11, 2006

Arab Media: Al Jazeera Newspaper

Likely lost in the American elections noise and the Israeli Gaza invasion, an interesting item reported in the FT among other sources on Al Jazeera planning a competitor to the hoary old pan-Arab dailies, Al Hayat (my personal favourite), Asharq Al Awsat (All Saudi views, all the time...) and of course Al Quds Al Arabi (old school Arab nationalism, I found them shrill and boring when I bothered to read it).

A worthy concept, but I am afraid the very physicalness of newspapers make them too easy to ban (by the way, I remain puzzled why Hayat hasn't been found in Maghreb for decades) or pressure.

Continue reading "Arab Media: Al Jazeera Newspaper"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:55 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

October 22, 2006

Memo from Dubai

It seems worthwhile to draw attention to an interesting article in NYT on Dubai and culture clashes, one which I think despite some superficialities is actually quite interesting. Stemming from a recent local Expat paper's admonishment to respect local culture a bit, it appears to have set off some reaction. I frankly agree with the admonition.

I also found the illustrating image amusing as the inappropriate couple behind the Emirati clique is so very clearly Leb.

Continue reading "Memo from Dubai"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:14 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

October 06, 2006

Dubai, the Attraction

A quick note to draw attention to a recent arty by Roula Khalaf of FT on Dubai and the why behind its success to date: Dubai cultivates oasis of calm where Arab business life can flourish.

The main thrust of the article is to highlight some of the why behind Dubai's success to date, beyond just stupid amounts of capital. Although that is a clear major condition, it is not a sufficient one as the other petro-giants of the region never managed to achieve Dubai's success (even if we mitigate our appreciation of the success by noting a definately unsustainable aspect doped by too much liquidity chasing too few quality assets).

Despite my own critical attitude towards Dubai - much is clearly illusion and can not survive, there are also clear lessons with respect to the ability of the Arab/MENA region entreprenurial classes actually being able to flourish when a moderately liberal (quite liberal for the off-shore aspects) business environment is established. I do note that some of - indeed in some ways much of Dubai's liberalism is rather Potemkin liberalism insofar as it is all of a very temporary, Enlightened Despot Suffrage quality. That being said, if one takes Dubai with a grain of salt, it does illustrate via its off-shore business services sector the degree to which Arabo-Muslim entrepreneurship is seeking a place to flourish away from the dead hand of the state, and the degree to which even in the temporary, Prince-dependent liberalism of Dubai seems vastly attractive in a world where the West is growing stupidly more hostile to Arabo-Islamic money.

Continue reading "Dubai, the Attraction"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 27, 2006

Solidarity, Reg: Maghreb, Outsourcing and Reaction

One of the issues that the United States has gotten right in MENA is its sometime concentration (when the gross fabulists that are political leadership of the Bush Administration are not dreaming up imaginary and magical transformations of a New Middle East, in time to render themselves ridculous and fools, e.g. Lebanon) on economic liberalisation as means to grow the region and provide new opportunity. It would do better to focus more on seeing real liberalisation see the day, and let its completely magical thinking about democratisation fall by the wayside.

The political support for such liberalisation contrasts favourably with the absurd double talk Europe engages in with respect to economic policy, above all France (which of course is no worse and in many ways better informed than the self-decieving fabulism the Americans are engaging in on the political 'democratisation' front). The Financial Times has an important article, although one not likely to be noticed by many, on the clash between Axa unions in France and the company over its plans to outsource to the Maghreb.

Continue reading "Solidarity, Reg: Maghreb, Outsourcing and Reaction"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:47 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

September 25, 2006

Leb Land & Recon, Back to Networks

Returning to a hint I made a month ago, I find on the newswires confirmation of the scheming re buying some street cred in Lebanon after the disastrous backing of 'transformation via Israeli shells' did such a lovely job of fucking American reputation into a cocked hat.

The USD 250 million of course is better than zero, but I am having a hard time seeing effectiveness given zero on the ground networks.

Hezbullah won, and even the backstopping effort isn't very good.

[Updated with links to actual entries supra, just to prove The Lounsbury is ahead of the curve]

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:17 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

September 10, 2006

They'll Estonia When You Try to Trade Some Goods: Transition Model?

Estonia, the Model? (Title apologies to Bob Dylan.) It seems everybody must get Estonia'd. In this excerpt of a behind-the-firewall op-ed by John Tierney in the New York Times, we learn of the transtion from an economically totalitarian society to a free market one in the ex-Soviet state of Estonia. Assuming -- and tragically some you don't, I know -- that a free market-based state and economy is a generally good thing, does Estonia provide an example for MENA (Mideast North Africa) states, and if so which ones? Alas, our main economics contributor in the region is currently bailing out sinking enterprises so the expert answer may be harder to come by. Meanwhile, I suspect Estonia fails as a model.

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August 27, 2006

Published: World Bank Report on MENA - 2006

Perhaps I will make this a tradition, but let me draw your attention to the semi-newly published (June, hey I didn't notice) World Bank report on MENA economic prospects, for 2006.

Last year's got me all inspired to rant on a bit and otherwise criticise a noble if somewhat flawed effort. It also inspired some parties to suggest I write "Development Porn" - I suppose writing the following engendered this:

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:44 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 24, 2006

Giddiness: MENA Private Sector & New America Foundation

In reading the first paragraphs of a Washington Post Op Ed by a fellow at the New America Foundation, entitled The Real 'New Middle East' I thought I was going to be pleased, sadly though the author took real observations and mixed them in with simple-minded swallowing of corporate and governmental PR spin to produce absurd tripe typical of the wide-eyed neophyte or the paid propagandist.

A pity as the author's main thesis in a less over-done and gullible form has merit.
_{Cross posted from The Lounsbury}

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 22, 2006

Rigidities & Employment: Small Details, Large Effects

In my small note last week, on MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans our colleague Shaheen rightly raised the issue of negative effects of apparently small issues as well as the negative impact of what I might call "sand in the wheels" - such as heavy visa regulations that can kill time sensitive deals - an increasingly common issue in a world of accelerating decision cycles.

Aside from the conversation in comments on the challenges of visas for the entrepreneur looking to build exports (as I note, supposedly a key policy concern for the US), my own suggestion with respect to visa services was rightly critiqued for the remaining bureaucratic braking effect.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:44 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 09, 2006

Frothy: Fund Developments, Private Equity & MENA

A queer indicator of the amount of froth that characterises the MENA capital markets at present, my very own self got a call from an American firm looking to enter the MENA market for the first time and raise a private equity fund. Looking for a "face."

Quite frankly, they need someone grey-haired and I told them that right out, for the kind of investment they're thinking of; but on the other hand, I would be a decent face to give an image of.... "best practices" given me rep as Mr Clean.

This being said, this is not really about me, but the froth. With oil at nearly USD 80 and likely to remain well above USD 70, the amount of money flowing into the Gulf - and to a lesser extent places like Algeria and Libya - is astounding and looking like a replay of the 1970s. [Crossposted from The Lounsbury]

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 31, 2006

The Economic Side of the Lebanon War

A bit back on my sub-blog I shared some musings on the economic impact of the conflict, which perhaps should be highlighted as the dogs of war are clearly out of the control of their master, and as dogs are wont to do, rather running amok against their own interests.

Some thoughts then on the impact of war regionally, from an economic perspective, and related thoughts on where the various markets may head. Very much seat of the pants by the way, and not profound.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:44 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack

July 04, 2006

Google Expansion & MENA - Market Interest in MENA

A rather quick note to draw attention to what may be a somewhat under noticed story, from FT: Google looks to expand in Middle East.

I noticed this when my usual robot searches brought up this on both the career angle and the news site searches. An interesting development.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:38 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

June 01, 2006

Rambling Thoughts on Public Space, Community, and Culture in Dubai

Dubai has long been the commercial capital of the Gulf. But much as it would like to pretend otherwise, most of what little culture it contains has been imported, and anything that looks historical only does so by virtue of a good façade. The rulers have always focused first and foremost on attracting business, and have been rather successful at this; most of the city's population has moved there from somewhere else for money. It thus differs in many ways from its next door neighbor Sharjah, whose ruler has put far more of an emphasis on retaining traditional and Islamic values, and where there is a 'decency code' and a prohibition on all alcohol.

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May 23, 2006

Dubai Glitter - Union troubles

While not having much substantive to add, I thought that before this aged too much, that some attention should be brought to a recent FT article on on unions, entitled "Union troubles start to emerge from Dubai's glittering facades' published 19 May.

The article covers material that we here at Aqoul have touched upon, effectively the signs that the impoverished sub Con workers who make up the spine of the vast construction site that is Dubai are finally starting to crack under the pressure of low wages, rising costs, and just plain near slavery conditions.

The article bears a quick reading, as well as pondering whether UAE aspirations (to US FTA, to other goodies) will force change. I would bet that the government takes a bail out angle. After all, among the drivers of the last few weeks of unrest has been that labourers have been crushed between escalating housing and general living costs, and low wages.

An obvious Dubai type solution is to have the Emirate provide mass worker housing somewhere, allowing companies to externalise housing costs (or continue to do so to be more accurate).

Part of the usual indirect and obscure subsidy approach the Emirates have grown to love. Might even be an efficient solution.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

May 20, 2006

Islamic Finance - Scholar Shortages

Some weeks ago one of your fine 'Aqoul authors raised the issue of Islamic finance, and its present situation.

While perhaps less sexy than the faux-reports of Iranian Nazi-esque clothing restrictions on minorities, understanding a bit about economic developments in the region is more useful to readers wanting to actually have a sense of MENA developments (as opposed to merely whanking on in general ignorance about the horrors of the Arab world, etc), and The Financial Times has been running quite a number of interesting articles on the region - well actually about the Gulf, but the confusion of Gulf with all of MENA/Arab world is so general I almost cannot complain.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:31 PM | Comments (16) | TrackBack

May 16, 2006

Maghrebine Media II

Now that we have had our little side trip on Somali-Dutch immigration politics (fulfilling all desire on my part to touch on the same, although at Reason.com one can pursue one’s desire to comment on the irrational reactions) , I thought I might return to something rather more profound, that being media in the Maghreb and the recent Moroccan steps to liberalisation.

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Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Census and Sensitivities: UAE & Its Minorities

Towards the end of last year, the UAE carried out its first census in 10 years. Given both the rapid demographic changes here and the promises to share the (usually classified) general data collected with the public, things sounded promising- the information gathered would be invaluable to any number of people. As my colleague SecretDubai has documented, things didn't turn out exactly as planned, not least because those being counted feared the enumerators might report them for any number of offenses ranging from cohabitation to various kinds of illegal occupancy, despite government promises to the contrary.

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Posted by dubaiwalla at 12:46 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack

It's a Magical Kingdom - the No-Loss Stock Fund

The Saudi king, in a shrewd political move, although one that does nothing to address the actual issues, has announced a risk free stock fund for Saudi citizens of modest means or maybe not so modest means. Actually it sounds like I win You lose trading scheme as described.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:14 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack

May 15, 2006

Maghrebine Media Makeovers: Morocco Issues Radio & TV Licenses - Liberalising or Potemkin Media

Following up on some prior exchanges with Issandr Bey of The Arabist, I thought I might take a moment to give a summary of the results of an item we touched on, liberalisation of the Moroccan broadcast market. Let me also try to do some value added original commentary as well, if only for the novelty val