March 07, 2012
Bad Libyan Developments
My cautious optimism in the area of Libya was a bit damaged of late, the reporting on this yesterday out of the Maghreb was somewhat more discouraging than this: Eastern Libya Demands Measure of Autonomy
Although one can make a nuanced argument for Federalism as a good choice for Libya, intellectualising the situation doesn't hide the underlying reality of what is driving this, local particularisms that are armed and not learned in the ways of compromise (thanks to the Guide to be sure).
If the National Council does not get rather more wise, Libya may well go to Civil War Phase II. A few weeks ago I would have given this only a 15% chance. I'll double that now, given what I am hearing.
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