The EU’s sustained engagement has not significantly improved growth in North Africa, nor has it moved the region closer to EU income levels. Since the Barcelona process was launched fifteen years ago, the income gap between each North African economy and the EU15 has barely narrowed.

In their influential study, “From privilege to competition: unlocking private led growth in the Middle East and North Africa,” a team of World Bank economists examined the region’s lack of private-sector development. They highlighted the prevalence of two obstacles—patronage networks and connected lending, which limits access to capital to regime-friendly enterprise owners.