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March 24, 2011
Useful thoughts on intervention: realism, not pessimism re Libya
This note in The Best Defense | FOREIGN POLICY is very useful and adult, given the hyperventilating "ohmygod we're in Iraq part II or Somalia"going on (and perhaps also useful also to the dismissive types that think that putting Western troops in is a great next step):
Everybody's going all wobbly over Libya, except those who never liked the idea in the first place. Tom's advice: Calm down. We have done what we set out to do in Libya. We kicked the door down, and with radars and SAM sites degraded, have made it possible for lesser air forces to patrol the skies over Qaddafi.
We should now say, OK, we have created the conditions, time for you all to have the courage of your convictions. The goal now for the United States, I think, is a negative one: To not be conducting a no-fly zone over Libya 5 years or even 5 months from now. If the French and Italians want to park the good ships Charles de Gaulle and Garibaldi off the Libyan coast, good. And if the Arab states want to maintain an air cap over Benghazi, fine. Step right up, fellas.
As for the American military, let's knock off the muttering in the ranks about clear goals and exit strategies. Fellas, you need to understand this is not a football game but a soccer match. For the last 10 years, our generals have talked about the need to become adaptable, to live with ambiguity. Well, this is it
Illustrative of the challenges, from yesterday's Libya crisis: live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk
10.30am: Time magazine has a good piece on the difficulties - understandable enough - the rebels in Benghazi have in cobbling together an effective alternative government and fighting force at the same time.Emphasis added: very obviously this is something that the Guide has promoted from the get go (the distrust among parties) and something that is not easy to solve. On the other hand, Western advisors on the ground may be helpful in (i) hammering some sense into the activist types with their fuzzy beliefs, and (ii) helping act as a spine stiffening to discourage disintegration / side switching.
"The big problem here is that most of the revolutionary guys don't trust the military people because a lot of military guys were with Gaddafi from the start," says Najla Elmangoush, a criminal-law professor at Benghazi's Garyounis University and an activist at council headquarters. "We welcomed them when they joined," she adds. "But people are concerned that maybe they'll try anytime to change sides." The regime is trying to encourage that fear, spreading false rumors last weekend that rebel commander Younis had returned to the regime's camp.
Also worthy of attention, this report
In Tripoli, Airstrike Damage and a More Outspoken Population - NYTimes.com which I note by the fact that officers in Tripoli were willing to hint at ... support to the Coalition airstrikes, is very indicative that while not entirely mercenary (as some would have it, lapping up the Rebellion propaganda) it is fragile.
But Capt. Abdul Baset Ali, a Libyan naval officer, said no one had been injured or killed because the Libyan government had expected the attack and evacuated.Emphasis added.
“Nobody was here because we knew this place may be targeted, so we went far away,” he said. Asked what the future holds for Libya, he said: “Nobody knows. We hope it will be good.”
One military officer, asking for anonymity so he could speak openly, said that he respected the Western goal of establishing a no-fly zone to protect Libyan civilians, but that the broad scope of the attacks risked creating a backlash. “This is not the way to shift out Qaddafi,” he said.
Though the airstrikes do not appear to have led to any new uprising against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi here, there was evidence that they had had a significant psychological impact. On an organized stroll through the old city with Qaddafi government minders, several Tripoli residents approached foreign journalists to offer their disdain or impatience with the Qaddafi government. Sometimes they spoke within just a few yards of a government representative.
Offered the bromide that it was a beautiful country, one man replied in perfect English, “It will be after we change the system.”
This is all the more reason to not engage either in magical thinking about the nature or capacity of the Rebellion, or in undue pessimism. A dash of realism and thus an ability to address the Rebellion's weaknesses (CLANDESTINLY forGov's sake I hope the governments suck up the negative press and keep things on the down low) can make this happen. In any case, one has to be equally realistic about the actual menu of choices, which do actually include Libya just slipping peacefully back into slumber under the chaos of the permanent revolution. Those eggs are broken.
Posted by The Lounsbury at March 24, 2011 06:32 AM
Filed Under: Foreign Policy & MENA
, Libya Civil War
, Maghreb
, The MENA '48
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