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March 24, 2011

Libya: American hand wringing, the Iraq Complex

I saw this on Kevin Drum's blog, Libya's Thousand-Man Rebellion | Mother Jones and left comment, reacting to:

A thousand men? If that's true, then there's virtually no chance of Qaddafi losing this war. For this and other reasons, Adam Garfinkle believes it's almost a certainty that the French and British will have to send in ground troops if they're genuinely committed to expelling Qaddafi, and this in turn could spell trouble for us:

So what happens if the French and British try but do not succeed in a reasonably expeditious way? What happens is about as obvious as it gets: not Suez happens. The Americans come and save the day, as they demurred from doing in October 1956. The French and British know in their heart of hearts that we cannot let them fail miserably at this, or that’s what they suppose. I suppose they’re right.

What this means is that the President may before very long be forced to make the most excruciating decision of his life: to send American soldiers into harm’s way to save the Western alliance—even from an operation that is not explicitly a NATO mission!—in a contingency that has no strategic rationale to begin with; or not, leaving the alliance in ruins and Qaddafi bursting with plans to exact revenge.

What's worse, even if Garfinkle is being unduly pessimistic and we manage to oust Qaddafi successfully, we still don't seem to have any idea whether the rebellious tribes are really any better for Libya or for us than the tribes currently aligned with Qaddafi. Helluva war we have going here.
Emphasis added.

My comment is quoted below as well, but I would preface it by two further remarks. First, Qadhdhafi already as early as the first declarations that he "had to go" by the West (before intervention, in the early days of the protests that mutated into rebellion), was already bursting with plans to exact revenge. Indeed, as my Tunisian colleague can confirm, there were credible reports that he had already begun to fuck with Tunisia by funding / supporting agentes provocateurs from the old regime, and saw Tunisia and Egypt as Western plots. I further note that one has to be extraordinarily ignorant to propose that there is an equivalence between the Rebellion and The Guide.

Regardless, as I lay out in my comment, the Libyan Eggs of Stability were already broken by the time Sarko forced intervention, pissing and moaning as if the choice was about some form of stability or intervention (as was the case in Iraq) is sheer idiocy. This without even counting the negative influence of the image of the West moaning about Qadhdhafi as he massacred the opposition, leaving the inevitable insurgency in the hands of the 'Told you so' Takfiris.

It is fine to argue against intervention, but advance alternatives to actual reality, do not piously pretend that Humpty Dumpty had not in fact fallen.... My comment then:


Well, what can one say....

First, as someone who does business in the region and has had the distinct displeasure of doing business with the Qadhdhafi regime, I find the hand-wringing about 'who would be better' surreal. The Guide is a living disaster for Libya, much more so than Sadaam was for Iraq. His permanent revolution is constant chaos, removing one of the few advantages of dictatorship, the modicum of stability. As I also dealt with the Iraqi situation pre American fiasco, I have a benchmark for comparison.

Second, this hand wringing rather presumes there is was a CHOICE between say restoration of status quo and all things fine under a charming Qadhdhafi dictatorship (with nothing more than a wee massacre in Benghazi) OR intervention. That is not the case. Libya was already by the time the decision point came, awash in arms. A Qadhdhafi restoration, besides being marked by massacres on an impressive scale, is also almost certain to be marked by the emergence of an ongoing insurgency against him (but sans W. intervention, veering entirely into the hands of Al Qaeda fil Maghreb), and by The Guide pursuing what was already seen pre-Rebellion: support to Agents Provocateurs in Tunisia (and likely Egypt). Looking at Libya in isolation of its two neighbours is myopic and betrays a lack of familiarity with their connections (much more than say Yemen with its neighbours, or Bahrain with even the KSA situation).

Saying there is no strategic rational betrays profound ignorance of the Maghreb, and of North Africa, and the huge potential spill-over into the very strategic neighbours (there is no doubt of the Guide's inclination and capacity to fund and promote bad actors in either Tunisia or Egypt to destabilise revolutions or democratisations that are at once demonstrably threatening to his own rule and detested ideologically). This is not even to count the profound economic dislocations to Tunisia and Egypt from Libya driven by not only substantial lost business (although the civil war will continue) but by the hundreds of thousands (yes, high six digits) of dislocated Egyptian and Tunisian guest-workers / expatriates.

As for the numbers of fighters, I doubt anyone actually knows. It is not particularly surprising, given this situation did not arise from an organised armed movement or rebellion, but organically from spontaneous demonstrations (and reaction to bloody repression it must be recalled). That without any semblance of organisation several thousand young men are even trying to fight against an organised army without any compunction to slaughter both fighters and suspected fighters is impressive.

A bit of bloody realism is required, not romanticism nor hand-wringing gloom and doom. Contra the comment supra, the rebellion and stubborn resistance in the Western cities (Zawiya, Misrata, etc) and even Tripoli amply shows that despite enormous personal risk, there is a seething dislike of the barely organised chaos that Qadhdhafi has inflicted on Libya these past 40 years.

To advance the idea that leaving the Guide in place is in any way comparable to even the unknown of the inchoate Rebellion is to indicate one has no sense of how awful the Guide is in fact, operationally.

I do not see, I would add, that the choice presented is Br & Fr (and then American) boots on the ground or non-intervention. There are a number of intermediary actions before this gloomy act (and futile act I would say). The pre-emptive "Oh we Americans are going to have to ride in" combines the worst aspects of pessimism and American parochialism.

Not everything is Iraq.


I would add that it is quite reasonable to look to the non-trivial chance that Qadhdhafi will beat the rebellion despite the air strikes. Certainly in private I assume that the Parties to the intervention are feverishly trying to work out support to the Rebellion so that their armed forces can be formed out of the inchoate masses. They should not be talking that up in public, however much it makes PR more difficult - I find the reporters going on about this to be more than a bit precious. In addition I very much hope that they are looking to ways to get arms to the Western rebellion, notably the folks in the W. foothills / mountains. 




Posted by The Lounsbury at March 24, 2011 09:14 AM
Filed Under: EU Foreign Policy , Libya Civil War , Maghreb , The MENA '48 , US Foreign Policy

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