March 18, 2011
Guide's countermove: Well-played so far
Apparently someone in Guidedom is reading the fine print of the Security Council "much more than No Fly" resolution, and realized that just about any assertion of force by the Qadhdhafoids could invite a full scale external counterattack and arming of the Benghazi countergovernment of Libya. Calling a ceasefire may neutralize that immediate threat while holding a superior position.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at March 18, 2011 12:25 PM
Filed Under: The MENA '48
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Although by many accounts nothing has changed on the ground.... hmmm, make that little has changed. Doubtless moving with more caution.
Posted by: The Lounsbury at March 18, 2011 12:55 PM
So - what are the odds that the ceasefire will stick, and if so, for how long?
Posted by: Eva Luna at March 18, 2011 01:38 PM
Well played so far, perhaps, but hopefully too little too late.
This resolution gives carte blanche for pretty much everything short of an occupying force. But that restriction is really pointless verbiage. There is not, nor has there ever been, an "occupying force" in Afghanistan. On the contrary, foreign forces have, at all times, been assisting the "legitimate government" of Afghanistan at that government's request.
The Americans are dithering -- very embarassing -- but the French seem to think that this might just be something they can handle on their own. They may be right. But even if they are not, they will have a trip-wire force on the ground within hours, so any further attacks will involve French casualties, thereby forcing the hands of a whole host of international players.
I don't often find myself cheering for the French, but I have to admit, I am looking foward, with gleeful anticipation, to the French asking the American to supply a ground force for their "coalition of the willing".
Posted by: at March 18, 2011 03:29 PM
Above me: I wish you'd sign your posts with some consistent handle or another!
Posted by: Eva Luna at March 18, 2011 03:54 PM
Eva, the cease fire is a fiction.Talking of it holding is thus besides the point.
Posted by: The Lounsbury at March 18, 2011 04:33 PM
Reports seem to indicate the cease-fire is just verbal. In that case, external powers can and probably will intervene pretty much at readiness and at will at any time.
Posted by: matthew hogan at March 18, 2011 04:49 PM
Was hoping you weren't going to say that, but suspecting you would. Sigh. Sadly, can't stay glued to the news all day - have other people's local problems to solve.
Posted by: Eva Luna at March 18, 2011 05:22 PM