In any casethe Arab & Egyptian perception of Obama Adminstration acquiesence to the Mubarek regime approach, and thus the enabling of its savaging of the opposition, has consequences in pushing the moderates aside and seeing the Jihadi wing come forward - they very much worship violence:

A Divided Egypt (9)

A large group of the ones organizing them yesterday were people in galabeyas and long beards shouting "Al Jihad fe Sabeel Allah (Jihad in the name of Allah), you have to continue fighting, we will win this war, if you die here today, you will be a martyr and go straight to heaven, don't stop, fight, fight, fight".

NO! This is NOT why we werein the streets on Friday being tear gassed and dodging rubber bullets and it is not why we have been going to Tahrir everyday to be heard. The reason why this revolt went through and became successful was because it was not religiously or politically charged. Don't let the ones who have been watching this unfold in the shadows ride this wave and hijack what you have been fighting for. I saw on Monday Taalat El Sadat (a dodgy fame hungry politician) ask people in the square to get aggressive. He was met with one loud message by everyone, "Selmeya, Selmeya" (Peaceful, Peaceful) - which is how all of us want it.

The calculation on what is occuring seems to me summarized by rolling up these quotes from today:
As protesters clash, Egyptian military's idleness raises questions - CNN.com

Egyptian state television on Wednesday went so far as to portray the protesters as members of a radical fringe and bluntly stated: "Let the military take over and protect you and Egypt."

"We have confirmed reports that there are radical elements heading to cause internal strife. They have balls of fire and they want to start fire in the Tahrir (Liberation) Square," Egyptian television said.

.....

"The military's refusal to act is a highly political act which shows that it is allowing the Egyptian regime to reconstitute itself at the top and is highly, utterly against the protesters," said Joshua Stacher, assistant professor of political science at Kent State University and an expert on Egypt.

.....

The absence of military action serves two purposes, Stacher said.

"Make the protesters go home, and two, scare the population that isn't protesting," Stacher said. "They want the Egyptian people to submit to the police state, and they want the people to pine for their police state, so that they have stability back."

"It's getting really ruthless," Stacher added.

....

U.S. officials are suspicious that Mubarak loyalists unleashed pro-Mubarak forces to intimidate protesters, the U.S. official said. "Perhaps" Mubarak is making a mess that only he can "solve," the source added.

.....

Robert Kagan of the Brookings Institution said the military appears to be helping the pro-government demonstrators in Cairo.

"It tells me that the military doesn't appear to be playing the neutral, benevolent role that we hoped it would," Kagan told CNN. "It does appear to be not only allowing these brutal pro-government thugs to come in and attack the protesters but maybe even facilitating it, which raises very serious questions about what role the military intends to play in this whole period of transition.

"It's a very cynical move which I hope the rest of the world, and particularly the United States, don't fall for," Kagan said.

Exclusive: The bloodbath in Tahrir Square | FP Passport

The second cordon is also pro-Mubarak demonstrators, who are just beating up the demonstrators inside Tahrir. They have swords -- I'm not exaggerating -- they have things that look like machetes with a 12-inch blade or longer, sticks, pipes, automatic weapons. This is why people [are] saying they're actually police. They're in very large numbers, not just people who collected. They're generally all men between the ages of 20 or 30.

Among them are some pretty thuggish types. I walked down a street into a crowd of about 10 of them and I was so uncomfortable with the look on their face that I just turned right around. It literally looks like their job is to just beat people up. They're working their way into Tahrir an inch at a time with the cordon behind them keeping everyone out, specifically the press. They're confiscating cameras. They'll take things away and break them. They're throwing stones. They mean business in a way that hasn't been the case so far.

I hope tomorrow is calmer and massive demos return to peaceful behaviour, and I can catch up on real work, and get to my analysis intention when not dead tired. />Egypt: Obama's caution

COMMENT HERE

What I want to know is, how does the current, more cautious, US policy actually harm US interests? OK, it runs the risk of giving Obama a 'black mark', which I assume is serious. But substantively, what is the damage?

Maybe there's a risk that, by not cutting Mubarak loose, Obama looks suspect in the eyes of whatever government takes over. But Obama has said enough to indicate where his sympathies lie. What's more, the US is a huge aid donor to the Egyptian Army and a major player in the region, so it's unlikely the US will be permanently sidelined.

The Obama Administration's approach — as described here, with quotes from a 'senior Administration official' — sounds about right to me. It conforms to one of the cardinal rules of diplomacy — never put your interlocutor in a position from which they cannot retreat without losing face:

POST TEXT COMMENT HEREINTRO

As protesters clash, Egyptian military's idleness raises questions - CNN.com

COMMENT HERE

Egyptian state television on Wednesday went so far as to portray the protesters as members of a radical fringe and bluntly stated: "Let the military take over and protect you and Egypt."

"We have confirmed reports that there are radical elements heading to cause internal strife. They have balls of fire and they want to start fire in the Tahrir (Liberation) Square," Egyptian television said.

POST TEXT COMMENT HEREINTRO

As protesters clash, Egyptian military's idleness raises questions - CNN.com

COMMENT HERE

"The military's refusal to act is a highly political act which shows that it is allowing the Egyptian regime to reconstitute itself at the top and is highly, utterly against the protesters," said Joshua Stacher, assistant professor of political science at Kent State University and an expert on Egypt.

POST TEXT COMMENT HEREINTRO

As protesters clash, Egyptian military's idleness raises questions - CNN.com

COMMENT HERE

The absence of military action serves two purposes, Stacher said.

"Make the protesters go home, and two, scare the population that isn't protesting," Stacher said. "They want the Egyptian people to submit to the police state, and they want the people to pine for their police state, so that they have stability back."

"It's getting really ruthless," Stacher added.

POST TEXT COMMENT HEREINTRO

As protesters clash, Egyptian military's idleness raises questions - CNN.com

COMMENT HERE

U.S. officials are suspicious that Mubarak loyalists unleashed pro-Mubarak forces to intimidate protesters, the U.S. official said. "Perhaps" Mubarak is making a mess that only he can "solve," the source added.

POST TEXT COMMENT HEREINTRO

As protesters clash, Egyptian military's idleness raises questions - CNN.com

COMMENT HERE

Robert Kagan of the Brookings Institution said the military appears to be helping the pro-government demonstrators in Cairo.

"It tells me that the military doesn't appear to be playing the neutral, benevolent role that we hoped it would," Kagan told CNN. "It does appear to be not only allowing these brutal pro-government thugs to come in and attack the protesters but maybe even facilitating it, which raises very serious questions about what role the military intends to play in this whole period of transition.

"It's a very cynical move which I hope the rest of the world, and particularly the United States, don't fall for," Kagan said.

POST TEXT COMMENT HEREINTRO

Exclusive: The bloodbath in Tahrir Square | FP Passport

COMMENT HERE

The second cordon is also pro-Mubarak demonstrators, who are just beating up the demonstrators inside Tahrir. They have swords -- I'm not exaggerating -- they have things that look like machetes with a 12-inch blade or longer, sticks, pipes, automatic weapons. This is why people [are] saying they're actually police. They're in very large numbers, not just people who collected. They're generally all men between the ages of 20 or 30.

Among them are some pretty thuggish types. I walked down a street into a crowd of about 10 of them and I was so uncomfortable with the look on their face that I just turned right around. It literally looks like their job is to just beat people up. They're working their way into Tahrir an inch at a time with the cordon behind them keeping everyone out, specifically the press. They're confiscating cameras. They'll take things away and break them. They're throwing stones. They mean business in a way that hasn't been the case so far.

POST TEXT COMMENT HERE