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February 08, 2011

Egypt: the Mamlouk Market

An analysis from Daily Dish that 'gets the game' of what I have been calling on Giraffe, The Waiting Game:

The "Manufactured Safety" Of Egypt's Army - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

The basic facts: 1) The military profits handsomely from the current power structure. 2) Mubarak's unpopularity threatens to bring down the govenment and therefore put the military's spoils in jeopardy. 3) The military can't make Mubarak leave yet - otherwise power would transfer out of the military's hands. 4) The military can't crack down on the protesters because that would cause an internal rift - some members of the army would likely refuse to fire - which would risk mutiny. 5) For Egypt's veep, Omar Suleiman, to assume power he needs to either change the constitution or wait until the next election and rig the vote in his favor.

The private hostility and the public neutrality of the army makes sense if the military elite's main goal is to maintain its access to the treasury. The army is not neutral - it's tactical.

Quite.

Posted by The Lounsbury at February 8, 2011 02:05 PM
Filed Under: Egypt Mamlouk Coup , Foreign Policy & MENA , North Africa , The MENA '48

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