Pakistan expects remittances from overseas workers to fall between 10 and 20 per cent in the financial year July 2009 to June 2010, according to the president of one of the banks, who says: “This is the stark reality of a trend that is outside our borders but will hit us soon.”

The returnees must find alternative employment in a tight job market and face an unprecedented domestic slowdown. Some economists believe the economy may grow by just over 2 per cent in the financial year to June 2009, below the population growth rate of just under 3 per cent.

Azeem Khan, a taxi driver who has just returned home from Dubai, finds it a blessing that his wife and five children stayed in his impoverished village in northern Pakistan.

“In the village, there is no rent because my family stays in our two-room mud house. But saving on rent and paying lower school fees for the children helps a lot,” he says.

Within a week of his return to Karachi, the main business centre, Mr Khan was hired at a monthly wage of Rps7,500 ($93.75), or less than a quarter of his income in Dubai.

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Professionals in the financial sector also face a difficult situation. They have returned home to a banking sector in the midst of a slowdown, while stock market investors are looking for opportunities to cash in their portfolios, which are worth less than half what they were a year ago.

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Engineers and hotel managers face a similar situation in a market where their local counterparts have recently been laid off. The plight of such returnees is exacerbated because they have become used to an affluent life in the Middle East.

The number of returnees is likely to grow at the end of June, when other professionals laid off in the Middle East pack their bags once their children’s school year ends.

There is no single prescription for such people, although some of the returnees and Pakistani businessmen believe it is time to consider fresh ideas.

In Karachi, a local businessman is planning a network of high-quality car maintenance workshops, to be managed by professionals with qualifications in mechanical engineering.

“This idea will fill a big gap. I want to hire engineers returning from the Middle East to offer a service that is currently virtually non-existent,” he says.

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Professionals with experience in sectors related to banking, finance and the markets, face the toughest challenge. However, some believe they should try diversifying into other sectors, such as companies selling consumer goods.

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A recently returned banker, who dealt with a company specialising in food products, has made contact with his former client, promoting the idea of representing its business interests in Pakistan.

“In this environment, you have to be imaginative. Pulling out your contact book and getting in touch with everyone worthwhile is vital,” he says.  ...

The Indian Sub-Con backflow is going to be harder to absorb by size, however for a stable country, like India (relatively) it may be very useful. For Pakistan with its current issues, that is harder to see.

For the Maghreb, the first backflow is going to be unskilled recent emigrates; in Morocco there may be enough infrastructure building to cushion that blow, but the remittance losses will be keenly felt.

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