I'm in Beirut now, so if anyone wants to take a look at my blog, ahlan w sahlan.

In lieu of an actual post, I'm going to point to this document from a year an a half ago by Amal Saad Ghorayeb for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Hizbullah's objectives in Lebanon's (then) political struggle.

I am not a Shi'ite, but I think it is clear that the current system of representation in Lebanon relays on a very outdated demographic picture of Lebanon.

I do not agree with the idea that the government should be split up into sectarian fiefdoms, but if you are going to do that at least make sure it accurately mirrors the realities in Lebanon.

We are argue all day about HOW Hizb'Allah is going about it, but it is VERY clear that the Shi'ites are massively under represented in Lebanon and that must change.

Also, I should point out this highly-accurate simulation of Lebanese politics.

Sadly bou sinan must change in Lebanon means upending established power blocs. And in Leb Land, that means gunmen in the streets....

Sure Abu Sinan, the system must be changed.

But don't be fooled for a second that HA is doing what it is doing today because it wants to change the system.

M.,

Whether you like HA or not, whether you believe they really are a resistance movement or not, anyone with half a brain should be able to understand that shutting down its communication network equates to making its leadership Hamas-like sitting ducks for Israeli F16s.

You might get hundreds of different views about intentions/causes, etc., and those views may vary according to whether you're pro or against [pick your favorite Lebanese faction]. At the end of the day, the only possible objective comments revolve around the stupidity of epic proportions of whoever so deeply misread the balance of forces in Lebanon and thought the HA leadership would sit around doing nothing while a potential death sentence is being signed against them.

That's for you too Sean.

Mate, you sound like the anti-HA people who immediately get a knee-jerk reaction with people who defend HA by saying "anyone with half a brain." i.e. ad hominem absurdum.

We can rationalize why and what and how things have become what they are, but at the end of the day only one thing counts: that the current situation has opened pandora's box. Discussing intentions is completely absurd, since all that ever matters is the outcome. And as for the communication network, well, that is now the least of anyone's concern. Or as you would put it, "anyone with half a brain."

isn't winning control of Lebanon kind of a consolation prize? Sure, it's a beautiful country, but really, would any sane person want to *run* Lebanon? That sounds like babysitting your suicide-bomber neighbour...

You haven't seen the share of government revenues you can pocket...