'Aqoul: NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

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December 09, 2007

NIE Iran Nuke Report Roundup

A quick round-up on likely reactions of interested parties to the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke dreams by TIME is here.

All sides of the Iran nuclear dispute are working hard to make their own reading of the report the accepted one . . . Israel and Washington hawks want military action against a grave and gathering threat; the Bush Administration is pursuing coercive diplomacy; the Europeans want to avoid war. And it is those agendas that will shape each player's response to the NIE in what promises to be a furious battle over Iran policy in the months to come.

Have at it. My 2 cents below fold.

The NIE thing may or may not be true in its assertion that Iran is not seeking to develop nuclear weapons at the current time. I tend to think it more likely than not to be accurate in that assessment. The document, nonetheless, is certainly a clearly political act of revenge by the Washington Advisory Intelligence Wonk establishment for the Administration's dissing of accurate skepticism about Iraq, which skepticism might have restrained the Iraq debacle. In any event, It is indeed a further reflection of the downgrading and demoralization of the hawks inside and outside the Administration, due in part to Administration lame-duckery and in greater part to worse than lame Iraqery.

Posted by Matthew Hogan at December 9, 2007 09:18 AM
Filed Under: Central Asia , Foreign Policy & MENA , Gulf , Iraq War , Levant , MENA Region General , Political Development , US Foreign Policy