Did you catch this and this? The plot thickens.

See also this summary of the Turkish situation: pretty thorough (though I confess to not following all the links).

This has been brewing for so long, it would be strange if something didn't blow up soon. But an all-out invasion seems very unlikely, to me. The US wouldn't just argue against that; they would be forced intervene somehow, not just to preserve stability, such as it is, but to preserve their reputation as an all-powerful ally (of the Kurds, in this case). But certainly Turkey could make a point by simply violating the border a bit and thrash about, showing who's the boss and satisfying Turkish nationalist opinion. Could also serve as a useful reminder to the US who their best friends are, or should be.

Also interesting is the powerplay between the Kurdish factions in Iraq. Barzani, who heads the KRG, has been acting much more Kurdish militant than Talabani, who is president in Iraq. To some extent that reflects their institutional roles and perhaps ideological issues, but it also derives from their constituencies (Kurdish, Iraqi and foreign) -- and, most importantly, Barzani wants to steal some core support from Talabani, who has his hands tied by being president. Also, this connects to the Kirkuk referendum question, which is supposedly meant to be settled this year, but must in reality be postponed (Kirkuk is now de facto more or less in the hands of Talabani/PUK, although not at all de jure). Will be interesting to see how they react to real crisis, because the fiction of a united Kurdish administration is precisely fiction.

As for the deal between Baghdad and Turkey, in Klaus's links, well -- Baghdad would also have to invade northern Iraq to be able to have any say in those matters. As long as permission to enter isn't coming from a Kurd, or preferably two Kurds (PUK + KDP), and an American, it's useless. Though perhaps not as pretext...

And this ny review of books piece that was sidelinked earlier & goes into the background (in particular the nature of the secularists & AKP) in somewhat more, and better-flowing, detail.

An interesting connection: many many Kurdish bands acted as the Ottomans' Janjaweed during the Armenian Genocide.

Seeing how much fun the US is having in Iraq, I'm not sure why Turkey is in such a rush to join the party.

if the PKK is going to go after the politicos like they must be gambling big.

Certainly the US-Armenian lobby groups must have recognized the impact of passing this bill right now.

Personally, I'm a bit conflicted. Confronting one's uncomfortable past is important, but the US/French genocide bills strike me as counterproductive to that end because they only serve to embarass/infuriate the Turks.

The US bill also reeks of political opportunism (please the local constituency at the expense of a key ally's reputation) and doesn't really serve US interests in the region.

Speaking of which, here's a BBC article on the US-Armenian lobby.

Reminds me of DPW, when Bush & co. were actually the voices of reason.

It's kind of a unique opportunity for the Armenian lobby this year: by this time next year, the Democrats will have a single presidential candidate, who might feel obliged to weigh in against the bill for the usual diplomatic reasons.

Plus, they (the Armenians) probably couldn't be arsed. & Turkey being pissed off is at least 10% of the point for them.

I'm wondering if the PKK attacks aren't at all related to the fact this last government has had even more popular support among Kurds than Kurdish nationalist parties themselves.

That kind of group lives out of conflict. Remove the conditions for it, and they need to recreate it. I hope the Turkish government will be wise enough and not react. The all time lows reached in Basque nationalism and terrorism were reached when the Spanish governments understood that the best way to fight was to give Basques enough autonomy to respect their specifities while ignoring their most extreme elements.

By "ignoring them", I obviously didn't mean let them rampage, but instead of giving a military response targetted at a given group, deal with terrorist acts like they'd usually deal with other crimes.

having the opening prayer led by an armenian orthodox dude was also a nice touch.

tom scudder:
"Turkey being pissed off is at least 10% of the point for them."

er, try a bit more. The Armenian prez later (or was it before) gloated about how last year Turkey said it was going to boycott France and about how trade between the countries increased by 1.5 afterwards(of course, trade increased across the board last year). The french bill was inherently stupid because it criminalized denial. In fact, one rhetorical defense the government is too insecure to use is the argument that the slain journo Hrant Dink himself opposed the use of genocide acceptance for political leverage saying he would go to france and deny the genocide just to see "which country arrested him first". One amusing thing that happened last year was that MPs threatened to pass a resolution declaring France committed genocide in Algeria. I think someone reminded them that Turkey had voted against Algerian independence and in favor of France back in the day...

Shaheen:
I'm wondering if the PKK attacks aren't at all related to the fact this last government has had even more popular support among Kurds than Kurdish nationalist parties themselves.

Well, thats why its a big gamble for them. If they get the gov to launch a major offensive, hide out, and pick off a few guys afterwards, the gov's popularity is going sink regionally and nationally. Thats why a handful if not all of the AKP's southeastern MPs already declared they would vote against a parliamentary measure approving a cross-border offensive.

BTW, re Klaus's #1, al jazeera's reporting has been carrying this boilerplate:

Turkey and Iraq signed an accord last month to combat the PKK, but failed to agree on a clause allowing Turkish troops to engage in "hot pursuit" against rebels fleeing into Iraqi territory, as they did regularly in the 1990s.

"ne amusing thing that happened last year was that MPs threatened to pass a resolution declaring France committed genocide in Algeria..."

Sounds like there is a full blown competitive genocide race going on; alot of people may be fearing a "genocide gap".

Perhaps a GALT is needed -- a Genocide Accusation Limitations Treaty.

Canada also acknowledged the Armenian genocide in a resolution in 2004.