This aside, at the same time there is a real occasion for MENA emerging markets (see e.g. in FT here, with Wolf here and in a rather more short term view, but with value - maybe not once in a lifetime, but fairly close - to make changes that might generate enough non-clienteliste "middle class" and elites to slowly drive real political change. Perhaps not warm and fuzzy Western European low-cut jeans political democracy and maybe rather more Victorian Era royalist democracy, but one should be realistic in one's goals. [1]

That being said, there is a difference between realism and self-deception or realistically based compromise. Sadly the Americans who are driving MENA "reform" haven't the slightest bloody clue and quite frankly are combining the worst of airy aspirations and language - let us call it Democracy Theory - and vulgar semi-realist whoring. I call it semi-realist as it rather seems infected with a nasty combination of wishful thinking, superficial realism (i.e. Moubarek is our friend of the moment so we'll bloody well get buggered for him) and short-termism of a highly mediocre nature. The first parts rather resemble the worst parts of the French engagement in their colonies - unlike the self-interested exploitation by England, with some facade (and I would opine governance suffered where self-interest was weak and self-fellating lies were strongest) of "civilising"

I would rather prefer pure out and up front vulgar opportunism over the same dressed up in "Democracy Promotion" that would tend to discredit the same - in the same manner that I found the insane, utterly magical "market promotion" of the American "Coalition Provisional Authority" disastrous as it gave a stick for Left Bolshy illiterates like Naomi Klein to make a point (and sadly although she was off in fantasy land as usual, her critiques sadly hit home as the cartoonishly ... ideological Bush Administration (whose Bolton only confirms what a dangerous and bloody Bolshevik like lala land they are in).

But returning to the FT analysis - or article rather - that I lazily prefer to work off of:

When King Mohammed named Abbas el-Fassi as Morocco’s new prime minister, some saw it as a positive sign for the north African state’s fledgling democracy. He was after all the leader of the party that won most parliamentary seats in September elections.

That would no doubt be this crack smoking silliness.

The long-awaited announcement of a new government last week has, however, confirmed the view of government critics that reform is off the monarch’s agenda.

They regard many of the 34 cabinet members as palace appointees with little or no relation to the four parties that make up the ruling coalition.

“We didn’t advance in terms of democracy, the government was not chosen by the prime minister, it was chosen by the king’s advisors,” says Omar Balasrej, a member of the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP). “Eleven posts are not party members…and even within the other posts you have several who just have the colours of a party.”

Well, let me comment that the sad-sack government that the Moroccan monarch appointed is not a sign of flagging reform because the incompetent cretins of the USFP were not appointed to positions, or that several Ministerial posts were filled by technocrats rather than the mediocritities of the party system (although as Ibn Kafka rightly pointed out if I recall, the mediocrity of the parties is very much encouraged and promoted by the Makhzen system, of course of which the Ahl Fassi are the superb products).

Rather, by all accounts, this government with one or two exceptions looks rather like the worst of both worlds, a combination of time-serving cretins from the parties and time serving cretins from the palace circuit.

The nuking of the talented if massively ego-centric head of Attijariwafa Bank, behind which was clearly Palace oriented politics, suggested that the Palace servitors who value boot licking cretinism in Morocco have the upper hand over those with a modicum, however limited and dim, of perception and sense of future.

Others say the formation of the government – which has new finance and foreign ministers - highlights the weaknesses of Morocco’s political parties.

The four parties have a total of 146 seats in the 325-member assembly. The system ensures that no single group can achieve a majority, forcing the leading party, in this case Mr Fassi’s traditional and conservative Istiqlal, to form a coalition.

It took a month to form the cabinet, during which some politicians were accused of switching affiliations to gain positions, while parties drew criticism for making little mention of policy as they divided up the posts.

I can almost id who are FT journo is channeling here.

Of course the government does indeed reflect the bankruptcy of the parties as well as the myopia of the current political elite (whose sad self-fellating is regularly seen in the francophone press). Myopia.

USFP, which was one of the main losers in the elections, falling from first to fifth place in terms of seats, accepted five cabinet posts even though some members see the government as devoid of power.

Et quelle surprise. This is about rents, not ideology.

Now, mind you, I am no fan of ideology as such, preferring pragmatic flexibility, but utter absence of any standards at all, other than seeking more rents to extract while piously mouthing fake slogans in "solidarity" with the populace that is taxed purposelessly by the very image of Leviathan, well, that has nothing to recommend it - not even competence sadly.

Indeed, let me add that in region - Maghreb or MENA one constantly runs into pious whinging on about politicians only looking after own interests.

Well, welcome to the bloody real world. Looking after the idealised greater good only exists in abstract political texts. So when one looks for "greater good" oriented politicians, one is looking for unicorns. Rather better is to have a political system that aligns those politicians real incentives with the national incentives - however roughly - and reduce the opportunity for them to seek rents to extract.

However, pious quasi Leftism is deeply soaked into the political framing in region, so we have this constant chorus of disappointment - constantly seeking the impossible of activist government without rent seeking. Leaving this aside, oddly the question of just plain competence is rarely raised. Doubtless as it is hard to openly question the basic competence of actors without getting oneself in court.

And of course the only people who seem to focus on the issue of competence are the Islamists (who, whatever their own magical thinking about religious piety resolving corruption, contrary to thousands of years of contrary empirical evidence, at least at an operational level seem to put real effort into competence, at least some modicum of a semblance of the same).

The Justice and Development Party, a moderate Islamist party that came second, remains in opposition, where, its members say, it will be more active and take its opposition to the streets.

Indeed it is likely to be more effective... although I am worried that in Moorocco and Tunisia there is not enough of a safety valve - and riots over rising prices is going to put pressure on the Maghrebine states to take anti-liberal market measures. Hopefully this will be minimal to cover the basics rather than massively distorting and unwind the long-term good of the baby steps of liberalisation to date.

Many Moroccans displayed their displeasure with politicians at the polls - turnout was at a record low of 37 per cent - and some are already questioning how long the government will last.

A key player, observers say, will be Fouad Ali al Himma, who is close to the king and stepped down from his position as one of Morocco’s most powerful men to run in the elections. He now heads a bloc of parliamentarians who support the ruling coalition, giving it a parliamentary majority.

“The politicians in the government have less and less influence,” says Ali Amar, editor of Le Journal. “There’s no more democratic transition.”

But others are more positive, saying the cabinet includes able technocrats and pointing out that the representation of women has risen from two to seven.

Women....

I grow ever more sick of the "Representation of Women" - virtually all from privileged elite backgrounds - as a sign of "progress."

Some pet bloody Fassi women in Parliament do not progress make. It changes fuck all in reality. But the superficial whankers in the outside world - plus the equally superficial pseudo-secular elites are seduced by this superficial symbolism (as if, for example, having a Benazir Bhutto did anything at all for the "status" of Paki women - and to be clear, no I think it did fuck all).

Women and gays. Why, unless MENA societies are aping immediately the latest cutting edge mores and habits of elite Western society (or rather their elites are aping the other elite), we can't really be having progress...

Morocco’s business elite sees the king as better able to push ahead with economic reforms than politicians who are often viewed as incompetent, says Hassan Alaoui, president of Success Publications.

He says the king has a 12-year plan to tackle the massive economic and social challenges facing Morocco, and democratisation will occur as the political parties and the population mature in a country with high levels of illiteracy and poverty.

“Whether we have Abbas el-Fassi or we have another prime minister who is more brilliant, the king, the palace, will remain the driving force behind development,” he says.

“We have understood that the political community does not have the guts you need to take on the economic and social challenges. They don’t have the knowledge to drive the economy… they don’t have the strategy, they don’t have the human resources to plan and move to action.”

Not entirely unfair, this comment, although he glosses over the why, nor am I certain that the market oriented business elite with which I deal is genuinely convinced the King is better than sliced bread.... given certain recent events and queer interventions where competition touched on his interests.....

But compared to most party cretins, well... it is an unfair competition.

One western diplomat says the elections were the most transparent the Arab world has known and that the process of forming the government has simply highlighted that overall democratic reform cannot take place in the absence of internal reform among the parties.

You know, I think I know who said this...

There is much to be said for the second part of the observation (although of course internal reform of the parties has Makhzen interference), but the first part... eh. Whatever.

1. I should note that I am not i any way seduced by any more than Abraaj's attempt to exit its BCCI logic via an IPO - quite the contrary, these efforts rather represent the downside...and anyone who sucks up either's explanations is a fool. Mind you none of this is to support the shrieking hysteria of Dubai Ports World is a threat from the port investment period, but "not a security threat" and "good investment for a minority investors on a home market controlled listing...", well that is a different analysis.