September 26, 2007
Abu Aardvark on The Surge & The Sunni Leadership
A personal favorite political magazine's blog presents a personal favorite political institute's video of an Aqoul favorite blogger Marc Lynch, aka Abu Aardvark, speaking at a conference at the CATO Institute on THE SURGE. The professorial Father of Aardvarks opines about the recent Iraq Sunni insurgent-US military cooperation, but bases his insights on Arabic language media and internet communications of Sunni community leaders. The conclusions he arrives at are basically that the Sunni leaders are stating to their very anti-US constituency that cooperation with the USA is merely tactical and the result of insurgent victories which forced the US to assist them in certain common aims of fighting al-Qaeda and fighting some Shiite militias. They view the government and al-Sadr as "Iranian" and they eventually want the entire US occupation out. In addition, the conditions are such that further sectarian fragmentation is underway and no matter how long the US stays, it appears the conditions will remain ripe for sectarian war. Informed readers, have at it.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at September 26, 2007 08:48 PM
Filed Under: Ethnic Minorities , Foreign Policy & MENA , Iraq War , Media , Political Development , Religious Minorities , Society & Culture , Terrorism , US Foreign Policy
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I daresay that I called this in late 04 when I pulled out of Iraq deals. All the signs were there.
I don't see any question that the tipping point was passed long ago, and the only thing the US is capable of now is being a dupe for one faction or another.
Were the Americans somewhat better informed - or better had a sharp, well informed operator in genuine control (that is, a unique control point, rather than a multiplicity of centres of authority within the US requiring reporting from Iraq to them - one of the evils I think of too much technology and a highly technologised approach is opting for data as an illusion of understanding and control) then perhaps something could be rescued.
But as this condition is not obtaning, and will not be so, it's fucked into a cocked hat and that's all there is. They'll be whiplashed about with various manipulations, and as no Iraqi party is strong enough to be dominant yet, a nice long Lebanese style war doped by petrol is in the offing with the Americans as dupes in the middle.
Posted by: The Lounsbury at September 28, 2007 03:20 PM