the problem with analyzing the US government is that their actions make no sense at all. But it does appear they fund Sunni extremist/separatist covert action against Hizbollah and Iran while supporting Shi'ites in Iraq. Some master plan.

Evidently Robert Fisk has taken Hersh's theory seriously. The crowd at The Thinking Lebanese thinks that's all the worse for Fisk. (Entry mostly about Fisk rather than Hersh)

The key paragraph from the Hersch report that's been quoted over and over:

"Alastair Crooke, who spent nearly thirty years in MI6, the British intelligence service, and now works for Conflicts Forum, a think tank in Beirut, told me, 'The Lebanese government is opening space for these people to come in. It could be very dangerous.' Crooke said that one Sunni extremist group, Fatah al-Islam, had splintered from its pro-Syrian parent group, Fatah al-Intifada, in the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp, in northern Lebanon. Its membership at the time was less than two hundred. 'I was told that within twenty-four hours they were being offered weapons and money by people presenting themselves as representatives of the Lebanese government’s interests—presumably to take on Hezbollah,' Crooke said."

Ever since the parliamentary elections a few years ago, Asad Abu Khalil has been alleging that Hariri and co sold out to extremist sunnis in Tripoli as part of his get out the vote operation.

See also this, drawing on a story from Al Quds al Araby, about a month ago.

Badger's posted an update more recently and if you go to his front page, he's kept it up.

Alaister Crooke seems to be the only guy to go on the record about the US/Saudi/Hariri funding of the group, and even he's talking about "what he's heard"; on the other hand, we ARE talking about a covert, deeply secret etc. program, not something that will have an official web site and a full-time press officer.

And by the way, "Alaister Crooke" would be a kick-ass pseudonym for a humorous political blog if it weren't someone's real name.

Oh, and Anecdotes has been good lately.

Oh, and Michael Young argues that the fact that the Hariri family has openly given money to Fatah al-Islam is still further proof of the nefarious presence of Syria's guiding hand.

Not fully on topic but not unrelated, Lebanon should seize this opportunity to establish Lebanese rule over the camps. Palestinian camps in Lebanon are run by mafias today, and even if they weren't there's no excuse for having a state within the state. Palestinians deserve full support when it comes to Israel, but letting their criminals roam freely or weaken other Arab states isn’t going to be of any help to anyone.

Hashemite legitimacy is debatable, Hussein wasn't a friend of Arabs, and arguably, he wasn’t even a friend of Jordan’s, abandoning the country’s claim on its Western Bank. A strong majority of Arabs would probably add to this list Black September, but there I’d disagree. A lot could be criticized in the way Hussein established his authority then, but it was nonetheless necessary.

Imposing Lebanese rule on the camps is long overdue. A Lebanese Black September wouldn’t be needed, it can probably be done through negotiations to a large extent, but if force is necessary, then let it be.

"Oh, and Michael Young argues that the fact that the Hariri family has openly given money to Fatah al-Islam is still further proof of the nefarious presence of Syria's guiding hand."

No, he argues that the Hariris giving money to Fatah al-Islam members means that the source of Fatah al-Islam's funding is murky.

Lebanon descends into the kind of violence that Syria seems to manufacture so effortlessly
how easy it was for a gaggle of pro-Syrian Lebanese operators to manipulate investigative journalist Seymour Hersh
The argument is now being picked up by media belonging to senior members of the Syrian regime
the movement is undeniably doing Syria's bidding today and has received Syrian logistical assistance
Fatah al-Islam may be operating in collaboration with, rather than as a direct extension of, Syria's security services. This gives Syria deniability.
Shaker Absy (….) was briefly arrested by the Syrians before being sent to Lebanon
Between the fighting in the North and the bombings in Beirut, Syria is sending a very plain message
Syria wants more than merely to undermine the tribunal. It wants to have a decisive say in who becomes president of Lebanon at the end of summer
unless the Security Council, the Europeans, and the Arab states show that Syria will pay a heavy price for what it is doing in Lebanon

etc., etc., etc.,
Young forgot to mention Saturday nights car accidents, the budget deficit, AIDS, Georges Wassouf and the toothbrush Mohamed lost last night as part of the havoc Syrians are bringing on Lebanon.

He must have been reading the Protocols of the Elders of Sadnaya again.

Well, Michael Young notwithstanding, it is a bit suspect that they splintered out of Fatah al-Intifada. If that's not a Syrian-run group, then the Baath isn't either.

What I'm saying is, there are possible -- plausible -- connections, and there's a huge grey zone here. Syria needn't control the movement or even be at peace with it to supply it with arms, or look the other way as it smuggles them across its border, or whatever. And the trouble does come at a very suitable moment.

Also, Hersh's argument about how the Bashar regime is Alawi and wouldn't knowingly aid Salafis who see them as infidels -- well, you'd think that holds true for certain reborn Christians too.

Now, enough said about that. The White House spin is even dumber, but there I think everyone agrees.

Yeah, I don't buy the argument that Syria would never, ever aid fundamentalist salafis.

Well, Michael Young notwithstanding

so what's the deal with Michael Young? explain for the plebs please.

I don't hold any particular grudges against Michael Young, I just didn't want to seem to defend his arguments (since I haven't read them, and secretly suspect I wouldn't like them).

He's the opinion editor of The Daily Star in Lebanon, by the way, and seems to be mostly on the neocon side of politics. Except he knows a lot about the Middle East.

"He's the opinion editor of The Daily Star in Lebanon, by the way, and seems to be mostly on the neocon side of politics. Except he knows a lot about the Middle East."

He's an accidental neocon, not an ideological one. For him, of half-American, half-Lebanese Maronite background, all evil comes from Syria. He therefore sees US involvement in the region as necessary. Otherwise, he is not knee-jerk pro-Israel or even anti-Muslim like alot of neocons, and is sort of a libertarian-Liberal.

I don't see why you guys are so dismissive about US conspiracy theories if you're enthusiasts about Syria conspiracy theories. After all, with much less means, both in terms of dollars, muscles and neurons, and give the scrutiny, Syria is less likely to do anything in Lebanon than the US.

Now, have you considered the fact that what happens in Lebanon is just the result of internal Lebanese politics and chance?

Frankly, I am tired of Lebanon - except Leb Sluts, which are an excellent product excepting their tendency to hirstuteness before waxing which is exceptionally unattractive (although the mates are bloody chimps) - but Shaheen's note is a good one. However. I think he's missing an item - it's clear that multiple games are going on in Leb Land.

The fact that Lebanese are -almost without distinction- total whores (or let me be more polite, highly commercially minded), outside plots (even dumb ones) may gain traction where otherwise they might not.

Of course, I might be biased by personal experiences.

Well, one of the big ongoing questions in Lebanese internal politics is "who should our foreign sponsor/sugar daddy be?"

Lebanese factions are always reaching readily for foreign support... The theory suggested by Hersh doesn't seem that likely, though.

This item might factor into the current theories, or spout a few more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6690751.stm

shaheen -- I don't see why you guys are so dismissive about US conspiracy theories if you're enthusiasts about Syria conspiracy theories.

I'm not dismissive of them, I just said you shouldn't be dismissive of the Syrian conspiracy theories: in terms of muscles, dollars etc, Syria is no less a player than the US in Lebanon. However, the US support (through clients) theory seems perfectly plausible to me. For all I know, it's quite possible Fatah al-Islam has been encouraged by both at one time or another, for their own murky reasons.

shaheen -- Now, have you considered the fact that what happens in Lebanon is just the result of internal Lebanese politics and chance?

Agree with Tom. But chance, yes.

L., actually I'm aware of the games in which outsiders are involved. My point though was that it's always perceived as the responsibility of said "patrons" (putting aside the fact that many make it sound like the US is kosher as a patron while others aren't).

The Lebanese should be held responsible for their own games without if's and but's, and without bringing the possible external leverages that every single Lebanese party might be using.

Shaheen: I also am somewhat irritated at the tendency to boil everything in lebanon down to external intervention (one reason I liked Warlords and Merchants). I'd be at least as apalled at the Hariri government if it turned out they had supported this group (which seems plausible to me - there is a definite domestic constituency for a Sunni militia, sad to say, and at least according to Hersh's narrative, this group had splintered off from a more explicitly Syria-backed faction, and I could well believe that they'd gone shopping for New Best Friends at the time). More so, really, because they don't have the limited excuses the Americans do in terms of unfamiliarity with the ground.

I'd be more sympathetic to the idea that Lebanon needs to get the camps back under control of the central government if I thought (a) that the south of the country, or for that matter the Shouf, were under the control of the central government and (b) if Lebanese policy were anything but 100% shitty towards the Palestinians living in the country.

BTW, the Books and Media section really needs a way (or a more obvious way) to see the whole archives. I wouldn't have been able to find that review if I hadn't known the exact search term.

I'd be more sympathetic to the idea that Lebanon needs to get the camps back under control of the central government if I thought (a) that the south of the country, or for that matter the Shouf, were under the control of the central government and (b) if Lebanese policy were anything but 100% shitty towards the Palestinians living in the country.

I don't think the situation in the South and the one in the camps is comparable. The idea here is that of jurisdiction, the legal authority of one single state over its soil. Camps are de facto bantustans controlled by Palestinian mafias. The Lebanese police can go into the South, enforce Lebanese law there etc. It doesn't in the camps, by choice, to no one's benefit.

As for the Palestinians, taking over the camps would definitely be in their benefit too. They would be placed under the government's responsibility instead of their current lords and the proposals to remove all those restrictions that plague them would have to be considered a little bit more seriously.

The current situation is just not sustainable. Lebanon can't keep the Palestinians rightless and a challenge to its authority when it has the means to do something about it, then whine about them everytime something bad happens.

There are a lot of places and people that are not under the Lebanese law. Places where, eg, the electricity company can't come to collect their bills. The big difference is that most of these places are under the patronage of parties that are part of the political process, such as it is, and so there are ways to sort out who gets to rob whom.

They do need to figure out a better way to pull the Palestinians into the Lebanese system, it is true.

The Lebanese police can go into the South, enforce Lebanese law there etc.

But the Israelis argued last year that the Lebanese army did not control the south, and so they had to wipe out Hizbollah themselves, except that that was a false argument, because too little time had passed since Syria pulled out to assert control?

While we're walking down Conspiracy Lane, consider this whopper: The 'Welch Club' (Geagea, Jumblatt and Saad Hariri) is behind Fatah al-Islam, but lost control of them/is embarrassed by them and now needs to eradicate them.

Over a year ago Hariri's Future Movement started setting up Sunni Islamist terrorist cells (the PSP and LF already had their own militia since the civil war and despite the Taif Accords requiring militia to disarm they are now rearmed and itching for action and trying hard to provoke Hezbollah).

The FM created Sunni Islamist 'terrorist' cells were to serve as a cover for (anti-Hezbollah) Welch Club projects. The plan was that actions of these cells, of which Fatah el-Islam is one, could be blamed on al Qaeda or Syria or anyone but the Club.).

To staff the new militias, FM rounded up remnants of previous extremists in the Palestinian Refugee camps that had been subdued, marginalized and diminished during the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. Each fighter got $700 per month, not bad in today's Lebanon.).

The first Welch Club funded militia, set up by FM, is known locally as Jund-al-Sham (Soldiers of Sham, where "Sham" in Arabic denotes Syria, Lebanon, Palestine & Jordan) created in Ain-el-Hilwa Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon. This group is also referred to in the Camps as Jund-el-Sitt (Soldiers of the Sitt, where "Sitt" in Sidon, Ain-el-Hilwa and the outskirts pertain to Bahia Hariri, the sister of Rafiq Hariri, aunt of Saad, and Member of Parliament).).

The second was Fateh-al-Islam (The name cleverly put together, joining Fateh as in Palestinian and the word Islam as in Qaeda). FM set this Club cell up in Nahr-al-Bared refugee camp north of Tripoli for geographical balance.).

...).

According to members of both Fatah el-Islam and Jund-al-Sham their groups acted on the directive of the Club president, Saad Hariri. So what went wrong? "Why the bank robbery" and the slaughter at Nahr el-Baled?).

According to operatives of Fatah el-Islam, the Bush administration got cold feet with people like Seymour Hirsh snooping around and with the White House post-Iraq discipline in free fall. Moreover, Hezbollah intelligence knew all about the Clubs activities and was in a position to flip the two groups who were supposed to ignite a Sunni ­Shia civil war which Hezbollah vows to prevent.

Guy who wrote this, Franklin Lamb, at least went into Nahr el-Bared to research the piece. Full article at Counterpunch, of course. [WARNING: SITE CONTAINS HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF LEFTINESS. FLAKIER THAN A CROISSANT. APPLY A #10 OR HEAVIER BIAS FILTER TO EXTRACT ANY USEFUL CONTENT. OTHERWISE YOUR HEAD MAY EXPLODE.]

On Tory's topic, see this transcript of one of the phone calls involved,

Dear AT,

I'd read that article as well. There are a lot of holes in it & he is contradicting his own "rule": In Lebanon, believe nothing of what you are told and only half of what you see!

Clearly, he believes everything people tell him ... if it fits his own ideological bias.

"According to members of both Fatah el-Islam and Jund-al-Sham their groups acted on the directive of the Club president, Saad Hariri." -- I don't even know where to begin ...

So he went into Nahr al-Barid ... but physical presence does not automatically translate into understanding what's going on.

Oh well ...

--MSK

MSK, I hope I didn't give the impression of swallowing this guy whole. He has a fine tendency to give unattributed quotes as 'proof' of his pet theory and, er, basically everything you said.

However, the same theory is being put forward by 'a [nameless] Lebanese think-tank,' as quoted by that bastion of reliable reporting, Iranian Press-TV.
(The direct link might not work, in which case search Fatah al-Islam from their homepage.)

Update: The Dutch journo blog Sietske in Beiroet has been wondering about this lad, too.
Verdict: Appeared from nowhere, seems fishy. Might be a shill for HB, but on the other hand, might just be very good. Certainly associated with pro-Palestinian groups in the US but that may or may not mean anything.

Quick q to the cogonscenti --

What has been Hizbollah's public comment on the whole thing, if any?

Nasrallah gave a long, rambling speech on the topic that didn't really have anything outrageous or unusual to it. Basically, "attacking the army is bad but attacking the Palestinians is bad too." As'ad AbuKhalil wrote a characteristically long, tangential, but amusing analysis of the speech.

Dear AT,

no, I didn't for a moment think that Lamb is your cup of tea ...

He's a law prof, but I couldn't find out from where. Sietske saw him around the country ...

His organization has a website but that doesn't say who they are or anything. It's not a shell for HB. It's more on the line of Cindy Sheehan - they mean very well & have their hearts in the right place ... but are not knowledgeable enough to avoid being taken for a ride. They're very similar to the neo-cons that way.

So it doesn't surprise me that F. Lamb repeats verbatim what his FI and associated "anti-American" friends tell him. He's a bit like Michael Moore that way ...

Look, I am as pro-Palestinian as it gets, but that doesn't mean that I stop using my brain.

I am looking forward to browse through his upcominig book on Hizbollah ...

--MSK*

So I gather we have a Michael Totten of the Left, eh?

Ya khayya,

who would that be? Franklin Lamb? He's not prolific enough ... ;)

--MSK*

Some echoing though that Hariri had been funding Sunni radicals to offset HB, but that the Future Movement decided to dump them (possibly because FM woke up one morning and realized they were dangerous wackos) and thus this episode began. See Ahmed Moussalli, "an expert on Islamist movements at the American University of Beirut," quoted in The Weekly Ahram. Also funny business reported in The Friday Lunch Club. And some (French language) Lebanese pubs smell something fishy: http://www.rdl.com.lb/2007/q2/4107/1sujcouv.html
, http://www.magazine.com.lb/index.asp?ArrowIndex=0&HId=&HIssueNum=2585&Category=1&DescId=6462&DescFlag=1, http://www.lorient-lejour.com.lb/page.aspx?page=article&id=342977

This core of the Lamb story I find somewhat plausible. I wouldn't even be surprised if there were American money behind it somewhere, because it is the kind of overly clever imbecility the US gov't specializes in, at least when run by Reagan-Bush II clowns. Fund Sunni groups to offset HB, realize that, oops, thay are AQ-style nutters even worse than HB, drop funding, start shooting.

Dear AT,

all sorts of things are plausible. But there's a huge difference between "there are quite plausible stories, that ..." and "this is EXACTLY how it happened".

--MSK*

PS: Moving to Beirut in 2 days. Will update you from there. ;)

MSK,
Well, quite. Hope you can shed some light from the center of events. I don't know if anyone on Aqoul has ever played a game called Call of Cthulhu, but trying to figure out what's going on in Lebanon reminds me of 'trying to figure out what's going on' in a session in that game. Eventually your Sanity score hits 0.

There's at least two of us I suspect have. (Myself, and most likely M. Homais.) And yes, I'm off resting to get my SAN points back up...

Sheesh, what IS the gamer geek overlap around here? Not that there's anything wrong with that, of course, but perhaps a formal survey is in order.

Eventually your Sanity score hits 0.

On the other hand, your Mideast Mythos score goes up. Fhtagn!

"Evidently Robert Fisk has taken Hersh's theory seriously."

I admit, I did as well. I still don't see a substantial reason not to keep his comments in a hold queue to compare notes at a later date. Like everyone is doing now with Sadam's WMDs.

C'mon... look at the facts, in 2002 Sadam was a major threat now he's dead, Iraq is riddled with war and we never found any WMDs. Sure this comment was as subtle as American Football but it gets to the nut of it all, or at least much of it.

Dear HA,

yet again I'd suggest to keep Sy Hersh's story on the "quite possible" desk and don't move it over to the "that's EXACTLY what happened" desk just yet.

My basic take on him still stands: He's brilliant when it comes to internal U.S. machinations but simply doesn't know the non-U.S. aspects & actors of the MidEast well enough to write authoritative articles based on sources whose trustworthiness he cannot evaluate.

Btw, from Beirut both Tripoli/Nahr al-Barid and Saida (Ain al-Hilweh) feel far, far away ...

--MSK*