We can once again be thankful that most terrorist cells seem to be a bit rubbish. These guys seem to have a propensity to detonate at rather inopportune moments.

Since the first blasts were the result of a police chase, connected to the bombing chez Faiz, they could hardly have been planned to coincide with the Algerian attacks.

But given the half-silly, half-serious media spin that followed ("Is North Africa heading for another round of fundamentalist warfare? Stay tuned!") I suppose this is an excellent opportunity for local cells to pop off whatever they've got, while media attention is there. That doesn't even take any real coordination, just a decent grasp of strategy in their scattered local commands, enough to see that there's a window of opportunity. So perhaps we should expect more?

(Note: Moroccan suicide bombers so far get very low marks for execution. Was the Casablanca 2003 strike beginners' luck?)

I would suggest that the recent bombings in Casablanca are signs of desperation - Algeria was prepared, Morocco they are neither prepared nor acting - they are reacting under pressure. Running before the security forces.

However, the media spin is not merely spin. Clearly the suicide oriented nihilists are reconstituting themselves.

Okay, not spin in the larger sense, but some of the media commentary has sounded as if Algeria and Morocco are about to turn into new Iraqs within weeks. Often combined with pinning the bombs on bin Ladin, as if it was necessary for him to give orders for these things to happen.

Morocco: well, I hope so, but this last attack seems to have been anything but defensive or reactive. More like if they decided this was their chance to make a difference -- I believe that thinking is the main risk faced now.

Since Qaida-style terrorism will be a fact of life for the forseeable future in the Maghreb, at some level, I think what is important at this point is what will be made of this particular window of opportunity. The jihadis have got the world's attention now, and can claim to have the initiative, but it won't last forever. Both random copycat attacks and concerted strikes to squeeze more effect out of it, are possible.

But in the longer perspective: say there are a few more attacks, perhaps also in Tunisia as you suggested. It may chill the region, and provoke much alarmism in Western press. But then what? If it all burns out after that, with no enduring damage to government structures and life back to normal?

Sure, the jihadis will have made their mark powerfully, but so what? I could easily see a popular backlash against them following, since this is all so sudden, pointless and unprovoked, and with no real gain despite exhausting their organizations. Right now, in Morocco at least, they just seem to be making enemies fast, and long-term, that's not a winner's strategy. They'll need a huge fucking boom to make this worthwile, perhaps a Luxor-style strike at tourism or something similar.

On the overseas spin, you would follow that better.

Morocco: well, I hope so, but this last attack seems to have been anything but defensive or reactive. More like if they decided this was their chance to make a difference -- I believe that thinking is the main risk faced now.

I fail to see the difference.

They're under pressure, they made a desperate attempt.

Right now, in Morocco at least, they just seem to be making enemies fast, and long-term, that's not a winner's strategy.

No its a desperation strategy. The revulsion is palpable.

I think alle is talking about headlines and articles that speculate whether Algeria will return to civil war as in the nineties, or not. Which is not going to happen, of course. So while serious, the loss of the image of security is far worse, and it makes sense to push back against the civil war narrative.

From Reuters, for example: Two suicide bomb attacks killed 33 people and wounded more than 200 in the port city on Wednesday, raising fears that the north African country might return to the intense political violence that gripped the country in the 1990s.

That kind of thing. Here's some pushing back.

Charming.

Of course Algerians officialdom is going to react in such manner.

For Algeria, "the narrative" I give fuck all of care about, that's bloody intellectualisation.

The reality is the armed groups have reconstituted and have been organised enough to fight running battles with the police and army, and then still penetrate the Security Zone and blow the fuck out of the government HQ.

Call it whatever fucking "narrative" you bloody well fucking want. I call it Algeria too dangerous for real business, and leave "narratives" to whankers.

I do not believe that either the May 16 bombings or the last ones have much to do with Al Qaïda, except for the copycat element and the general ideological affinity. The police have been unable to produce any hard evidence for a serious link between May 16 and Al Qaïda, although this would of course be in their interest - official Morocco would be delighted to be part of the "good guys" in the Global War On Terror.

As for the last suicide bombings, it would really seem to be a very amateurish local inititative. According for example to the guard in front of the American Language Center, the suicide bomber turned away when asked about his membership card, walked away a dozen of metres and blew himself up at a distance, making sure to be at distance from any bystander. He evidently didn't want to kill anyone - any Moroccan, that is. I don't need to stres how different this attitude is from that of your average Al Qaïda bomber... Event those bombers who blew themselves up last Tuesday apparently were at pains not to blow themselves up amid bystanders, and they only targeted the police.

Al Qaïda has nothing to do with those events, whatever lazy spin some Western journalists and Moroccan commentators want to put on this.

Ibn Kafka

I largely agree with you, with respect to Morocco. Algeria, not so much.

I should be clear that what seems to me is happening is an issue of copy-catism and inspiration, not actual networks - excepting perhaps Algeria. There, a different issue. But then there already existed a bloody-minded tradition and network in Algeria, whereas in Morocco there is not.

You're absolutely right, and I didn't have Algeria in mind when writing my comment. Algeria is indeed a different story, the GSPC having joined into Al Qaïda.

Oh goody - the U.S. Consulate in Casablanca is closed to the public until further notice for a "security review."

Not that this is surprising, but still a pain in the neck.

Yeah, I just heard about this, I wouldn't give a fuck myself, but in the event some of the Moroccan financiers I deal with have to go to NY....

But fuck it, financial business is more and more moving to London. The US has become an enormous pain and if you're positioning for the new globalised markets, it's far more effcient to be in London or Dubai or Hong Kong.