Last week before being sucked into a project I had a quick open item re changes in MENA policy. Some follow on perhaps is warranted given the American press, I am told, is finally using the phrase "civil war" and the last Right Bolshevik delusions (so stunningly reminiscent of the original Left Bolsheviks delusional agitprop) are disolving. The idiotic use of the Ukrainian phrasing (Orange Revolution) to apply to the Lebanese situation (soi-disant "Cedar Revolution", as pimped by the dimwit Totten) has blown up in their faces and Iraq's down-draft begins to have the exact inverse effect that the delusional Right Bolsheviks predicted.

Of course the Maliki snub reminds me of my old Agency amigo coming out of Baghdad late '03 - early '04 with the eternal classic for me: "We ain't no kinda pimps when our own whores don't wanna be seen with us."

However, this is merely obvious (except in the apparently increasingly desperate corners of the pre-fooled Right Bolshy dupes).

The tipping in the wrong direction for the United States is painfully clear with respect to Lebanon where American engagment has remained typically driven by a fantastical misreading of the political dynamic in the Levant, from the over-reading of the anti-Syrian reaction post Hariri assassination to the Hezbullah-Israel confrontation.

Some illustrative items from the linked FT article on Lebanon:

Hizbollah’s Shia followers and Gen Aoun’s Christian supporters appeared to have only partially overlapping political agendas but they were united in their disapproval of the Sunni Muslim leader of the anti-Syrian camp, Saad Hariri, the son of assassinated former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. “Die, die, Saad die,” several groups of demonstrators chanted.

Charming, but then the Hariris' canonisation (to be ironic) has been rather overdone in the West.

Hizbollah’s supporters mainly voiced anger at what they described as the government’s “betrayal” of the Shia during the movement’s war with Israel in July and August. “I am here for our dignity. Siniora supports Israel and America,” said 63 year-old Fatemi Nasri who had come from the south of Lebanon together with her granddaughter

Many demonstrators took up the theme of the government’s alleged pro-Israel bias, with some disparaging chants taking aim at anti-Syrian minister Ahmed Fatfat, calling him “a Jew”.

Banners demanded the resignation of the “Feltman government”, in a reference to the US ambassador in Lebanon, Jeffrey Feltman.

Well, well. The excellent results of the clumsy idiocy that has been American policy towards Lebanon and Syria.

Gen Aoun’s supporters were more focused on the alleged corruption of the cabinet, with many referring to it as “a government of thieves.” But their main reason for attending the demonstration appeared to be a demand that has so far remained unvoiced by either Hizbollah or Gen Aoun’s movement. “We are here because we want the general as president,” said a group of demonstrators sporting orange umbrella’s on their heads.

Aoun as President.

And meanwhile, of course, all analyses suggest that Iraq is simply spinning farther and farther into chaos

What can the Americans do to get out of this?

Hard to say with respect to Iraq - nothing really than perhaps withdraw and try to support a stable Kurd zone and prevent the Kurds from engaging in too much nastiness.

For the remainder of the region...more tomrorow