« "Macaque" Ado: North African Linguists Needed | Rigidities & Employment: Small Details, Large Effects »


August 17, 2006

MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans

While I confess this note is in part motivated by my desire to have an excuse to share this cartoon from the Moroccan business daily, l'Economiste from yesterday's - 16 Aug edition. This was emailed to me yesterday, and is worthy of a good laugh, I thought it also worthwhile to undertake some reflexions on both the subject matter and some generalisations about practical issues.

[Crossposted from The Lounsbury]

The text, by the way, reads roughly, "Let's go, don't be so timid." I presume everyone gets the allusion.

The subject matter is the fairly substantial non-impact of the much ballyhooed - in US circles - and much feared -in Maghrebine circles- Free Trade Agreement with the United States.

Utterly unsurprising, I may add, despite the rather overdone expectations on the American side (based on painful conversations with earnest American officials I have had from time to time) and fears on the Maghrebine side (who delusionally feared the US was going to come in and buy everything. If only.)

I have commented on this before, so this really merely serves to illustrate that a half-year in the my expectations were on target.

The initial data are clear, despite more than a year of preparation, rather obviously American firms are generally uninterested in the market - which is understandable although in some ways leaves money on the table as despite the drawbacks, there are interesting things to leverage on the south side of the Med basin.

Rather more shameful is the clear inability - and in no small part, lack of desire and will - on the Moroccan side to leverage the agreement to boost exports.

Yes, one can say six months in is not much time to judge, and that's a fair comment, but on the other hand this was delayed somewhat over a year beyond its theoretical effective date, plenty of time for Maghrebine actors to prepare plans and take action.

That they have not, however, is not particularly surprising despite the overdone expectations all around.

I see the same thing, for example, in Jordan where almost a decade into an FTA the most active parties leveraging that FTA and the similarly structured US-Israel-Jordan special industrial zone scheme (known as QIZ) are in fact foreigners. Not Jordanians that is. Not even Palestinian-Jordanians.

As I have argued in the past, too much of the southern Med basin commercial and business culture is impregnated with two nefaste influences: (i) the doukakine spirit (or if we're to put this in Egyptian terms, the ba'al spirit), a business approach based on passively sitting around waiting for business to come to you, maybe arranging your wares a bit according to your convenience, but never paying much attention to making things truly convenient for the customer (this is a retail approach, but by analogy one can extend it to the entire business community's habits across the region), (ii) the nanny government expectation, that is the Sulta should/will/has to bring me business, and protect me from my own passivity and generally weak initiative - as part of the social contract that also has historically severely punished the boundary pushing, prospecting spirits - what Keynes called "animal spirits." The MENA governments have historically preferred, favoured and rewarded tame behaviour (and arguably in most cases despite public lip service to entrepreneurial spirit, continue to prefer), while punishing-sometime severely independant initiative.

These patterns - some of which are 'ancient but many of which really date from the combination of the Colonial period and the post-Colonial continuation dressed up in "Nationalisation" clothes - are hard to undo, even presuming that the various governments really want to do so. Which is a bit of a stretch.

Now, mind you, if there is one area where I think that the Americans have a proper policy -if one that is infected by unrealistic and magical thinking- it is in the area of fighting for economic liberalisation in the MENA region, for despite the weak traditions of individual initiative, there is a lot of talent and decent infrastructure that is being very poorly leveraged in economic terms in the region. The American push for economic liberalisation is spot on correct, whatever the whinging on by the domestic Left, although it is simultaneously truly poorly conceived as they seem to completely misspecify the blockages, expect returns on their efforts in ridiculously short terms, and set benchmarks that - as in Iraq - are utterly magical; rather than looking at reasonable incremental change. They also seem to have no fucking clue at all that their views need to be sold and sold well to the South Med Basin populaces who are NOT Eastern Europeans looking to shake off the yolk of Soviet masters (a common and utterly moronic misconception and misframing both in economic and political terms by Americans in region), but rather more resembling Russians with a divided sense of what the old system did for them - sure it clearly doesn't work anymore, but the "savage" liberal markets are scary and the old system was "native" to them, not imposed by imperial foreigners.

However, Americans, like the British Victorians, seem infected with the unique blindness that their ideas are uniquely self-evident and not requiring any real sales and explanation job, for everyone who has any sense would want to be just like them.

Which of course is not self-evidently the case.

Leading the US, in this economic field as in its other policy initiatives in region, to gratuitiously piss away good will and opportunities.

It's maddening really, as this is as an area - economic policy - where (ceteris paribus) Americans are actually pretty decent in, the advice proferred - when it is not magically assuming transformation overnight - is not bad.

But it is never explained well, and not in a manner aimed at the general populace.

I would add, however, that the completely incompetent, magically delusional American FP at present in re MENA certainly is also acting as a clear brake on making its economic FP work.

Posted by The Lounsbury at August 17, 2006 07:25 PM
Filed Under: Business, Private , MENA Region General , North Africa , Society & Culture , US Foreign Policy

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.aqoul.com/movabletype/mt-tb.cgi/2904


Comments

this is a retail approach, but by analogy one can extend it to the entire business community's habits across the region

This is so true. I usually call it the grocer mentality, which you'll find even in high tech sectors.

the nanny government expectation

Yep, you know how much I think this is an obstacle to the region's advancement at every level.

They also seem to have no fucking clue at all that their views need to be sold and sold well to the South Med Basin populaces

I don't think it really needs to be sold to the populace, who doesn't have much economic thought, as much as it should be pushed through its client elites. Not that I generally believe in top-down approaches, but populaces in the region have zero economic litteracy in general and are pretty neutral to whatever direction economy heads to, as long as their stomach is full. I would even say that, there are chances Arabs would be very receptive to economic liberalization since the most tuned among them to economic policies happen to be very entrepreneurial in spirit (so many want to do business that is, even though their matching proceeding, knowledge and training is seriously lacking).

Speaking of free trade agreements which I know better than the US-Morocco one, the EU-south med agreements sucked big time imo. Free trade is without any doubt the way to go, but it has to be done on an equal footing if it isn't to be a one way flow at the detriment of the receiver side. The EU agreements with Morocco and Tunisia for example suffer two major flaws in that sense:

- One is due to the troglodyte Morrocan and Tunisia policies of currency control and exchange prohibitions, which makes moving capital out theoretically extremely difficult if not outright impossible in practice. This is not related to the trade agreements per se, but it completely eliminates many of their potential benefits. Something as simple as opening a foreign commercial office is nearly impossible just because of this for a Tunisian or Moroccan SME.

- Another is due to the fact that, Tunisia and Morocco should have negotiated a free movement for their businessmen (and their intellectual/economic elites) as a condition sine qua non for those agreements. Sure, the wealthiest can get visas relatively easily when compared to the rest of the populace. But it's still a serious source of insecurity to many businessmen who don't know if they could enjoy any right in case of contention (you can't defend yourself if you can't move to where the court is, can you?). It's also a serious hassle to have to go through the whole additional bureaucratic process of visas (besides, a few legitimate small entrepreneurs in search of opportunities don't get them anyway). And someone who needs to start up in Europe should be able to do so, just like the opposite is already true.

Posted by: Shaheen [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 17, 2006 11:52 PM

Shahine Bey:

Good comments, you should write your own comment on this, we'll turn this into a MENA biz blog yet.

Re this I don't think it really needs to be sold to the populace, who doesn't have much economic thought, as much as it should be pushed through its client elites:

I disagree, although my thinking was unclear.

In speaking to the populace, I was thinking of a population beyond the narrow elite the Americans (and others) usually talk to - if only because they can being English speaking.

The working classes - that's beyond the scope, but if the US wants to sell its vision of liberal economies (and it should), it needs to get the middle cadres -the quasi middle class- on board. I suppose they are an elite as well, but the lowest layer as it were. These people certainly have economic thought, just semi-literate ones. Which is fine, however if one wants to sell one's economics, you want to make sure it's your semi-literate version that is out there.

Re the visas, you are right. I have a blindspot there as of course I rarely need a visa. However obtaining such is a surprisingly large barrier to prospecting markets. Time, money and uncertainty.

I sympathise with the EU zone in note granting visas, given I know there would be abuse, but an expedited visa program for businesses vouched for by some service would be brilliant. Indeed, it's an idea I should start mentioning in the cocktail circuit.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at August 18, 2006 04:45 AM

Let me also echo this:
ne is due to the troglodyte Morrocan and Tunisia policies of currency control and exchange prohibitions, which makes moving capital out theoretically extremely difficult if not outright impossible in practice. This is not related to the trade agreements per se, but it completely eliminates many of their potential benefits. Something as simple as opening a foreign commercial office is nearly impossible just because of this for a Tunisian or Moroccan SME.

Absolutely right. I deal with the currency people all the time, and while they are well-meaning (not something I normally say about the Arab bureaucratic corps) their vision is CONTROL and even for a foreigner such as myself, getting sums converted back is a fucking pain. And I am sure I get better service than normal.

The funny thing there is that the absence of real black markets rather clearly suggests that (i) the capital that was going to flee, has fled, (ii) the losses from some capital leakage from lifting capital controls are likely to be rather strongly offset by the efficiency gains from freeing up smaller firms from the ponderous bureaucracy they have to go through to export and import.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at August 18, 2006 04:50 AM

an expedited visa program for businesses vouched for by some service would be brilliant. Indeed, it's an idea I should start mentioning in the cocktail circuit.

How would you have this work? Something along the lines of the Business Executive Program already functioning at certain other U.S. consular posts? Or would restricting it to companies with a high volume of visa applicants defeat your purpose? Or do you think it would be feasible to somehow expand the Business Executive Program to smaller and/or less established companies, and if so, how would you deal with the legitimate fraud and visa overstay concerns?

Posted by: Eva Luna at August 18, 2006 10:37 AM

You shouldn't have to ask this question: Or would restricting it to companies with a high volume of visa applicants defeat your purpose?

It is hard to imagine start-ups, SMEs or even not-large firms having a high volume of applicants.

The Biz Exec item you cite serves those who don't need it. It's a convenience, not a deal-maker. I also do not believe it exists in MENA; could be wrong as obviously American visas are not me speciality nor concern.

As to how such a thing would work, I don't know, the general concept I would suggest is a private organisation acting as "Guarantor" and selector for the consular service, as part of an export assistance program.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at August 18, 2006 11:00 AM

The Biz Exec item you cite serves those who don't need it. It's a convenience, not a deal-maker. I also do not believe it exists in MENA; could be wrong as obviously American visas are not me speciality nor concern.

In some cases (as with the India link above), the convenience may well be the deal-maker in some cases; it's not unusual at certain times a year to have an appointment backlog of 4 - 5 months or longer, so expedited appointment making is a big deal in the business context there.

I checked a few of the MENA US consular post sites, and don't see any info on similar programs there. But given that I hardly ever deal with MENA-based consular posts (except on behalf of Indian nationals born and/or previously residing in MENA), and given that IIRC some of the 9/11 hijackers obtained their U.S. visas via an analogous expedited program for obtaining visas via a travel agency (which no longer exists ), my guess is that there are region-specific security concerns with such a program, of which I don't know the concrete details. (And for that matter, looking at the Riyadh website, I see that Jeddah is no longer issuign visas, so I'm assuming there is a security-related reason for that.) But maybe the current requirement for applicants to appear in person to be fingerprinted would alleviate some of the security concerns, if not the other fraud/overstay concerns.

Even given the above, though, I imagine one could tailor a program like the Business Executive Program to regional needs, and I don't know that 100 visas a year per company needs to be the floor; just how small a business do you have in mind to take advantage of the program you are envisioning?

Posted by: Eva Luna at August 18, 2006 11:57 AM

if the US wants to sell its vision of liberal economies (and it should), it needs to get the middle cadres -the quasi middle class- on board.

You might have a point there, but I have an interrogation. I'm unsure of how relevant those are. Even though this might change quickly, they're neither significant enough in numbers, nor in influence. One of the things that make me think you can start imposing economic liberalism without preparing the populace for it is that you won't meet significant opposition to it. There are no group of interest (organized or otherwise) who might be concerned enough by this to get in the way. So while I can see the point in making sure this remains so, I don't see having them convinced as a prerequisite.

I sympathise with the EU zone in note granting visas, given I know there would be abuse

Actually, abuse is very easy to spot here. Rare exceptions aside, potential or actual entrepreneurs are usually skilled people (or else they're retailers or construction workers - in which case a record of success in the local market could classify them as skilled as well in a way). So we're back to the issue of fucked up EU immigration policies. A once in a lifetime (or so) screening process mainly along education lines and/or professional record should be more than enough to give a clearance to move around as they feel fit. Not very different from what Australia, Canada - and now the UK - for example do in terms of permanent residency. In the end, skilled people being allowed in in Europe can only beneficial to it, even if they end up working as employees rather than doing business.

an expedited visa program for businesses vouched for by some service would be brilliant

Would I call a company for its services as a small start up entrepreneur to get a visa each time I wanted to do some prospective work in Europe? I'm not sure I would when busy in action. Imagine yourself with few initial beans to dispose of and a heavier administrative charge than you'd want to worry about already (including collecting necessary paperwork for the people to whom you're going to delegate that). I've known countless young entrepreneurs in that situation. Besides, it wouldn't solve the question of being able to start up in Europe. That can be a better choice for many kinds of businesses, leveraging whatever advantage your knowledge of the southern shore can give you in the process.

Posted by: Shaheen [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 20, 2006 12:28 AM

Regarding practical questions on Visas:
just how small a business do you have in mind to take advantage of the program you are envisioning?

Any size restriction rather defeats the point. The US loudly states in region it wants to promote SMEs and SME based growth and exports.

If that is in fact its goal, the only requirement re firm structure would be whether the firm is properly incorporated or not (i.e. it has to be in a legal form that can truly aspire to exports - although Shahine will note that informal firms do manage, and I am aware of that. However one has to have some standards)

Regarding Shahine's note: A once in a lifetime (or so) screening process mainly along education lines and/or professional record should be more than enough to give a clearance to move around as they feel fit. Not very different from what Australia, Canada - and now the UK - for example do in terms of permanent residency. In the end, skilled people being allowed in in Europe can only beneficial to it, even if they end up working as employees rather than doing business.

Well, I have a bit more sympathy for the consular official who can see his or her career ruined over one leakage. Of course you are right, EU majority could adopt an... Anglo Saxon approach and all would profit.

Further, regarding his objection to the suggested program: Would I call a company for its services as a small start up entrepreneur to get a visa each time I wanted to do some prospective work in Europe? I'm not sure I would when busy in action. Imagine yourself with few initial beans to dispose of and a heavier administrative charge than you'd want to worry about already (including collecting necessary paperwork for the people to whom you're going to delegate that). I've known countless young entrepreneurs in that situation. Besides, it wouldn't solve the question of being able to start up in Europe. That can be a better choice for many kinds of businesses, leveraging whatever advantage your knowledge of the southern shore can give you in the process.

Agreed and understood. I was trying to propose something practical - let's not let the perfect be the enemy of a good thing.

Some expedited services or the like is more likely to happen then most of Schengen Zone suddenly realising their immigration and visa policies are completely counterproductive.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at August 22, 2006 04:31 PM

Rather more shameful is the clear inability - and in no small part, lack of desire and will - on the Moroccan side to leverage the agreement to boost exports.

This is unfair. There were big increases in a lot of Moroccan exports to the States: electrical machinery (up 11% at $50 million), woven apparel (up 81% at $24 million), preserved food (olives)(up 98% at $16 million), knit apparel (up 95% at $15 million), footwear (up 96% at $5 million), fats and oils (up 254% at $5 million), and edible fruit and nuts (up 72% at $5 million). The reason why the overall Moroccan export result was disappointing (on a year to year basis, but still up 7.5% on the 5-year average) was that Moroccan exports of mineral fuel/oil were zero, down from $30 million in the same period of 2005; this is a volatile category, and also one that doesn't create so much employment, whereas the industries that greatly increased their exports are far more labor-intensive and accessible to entrepreneurs. There's a long way to go, but this is a good start.

Posted by: Carl Dawson at August 23, 2006 07:05 AM

Comment Subscription

Email Address: