August 03, 2006
Creative Destruction & Own Goals - "The New Middle East is Already Dead"
The entry title comes from a radio report I just heard on RFI. The above is from a Moroccan business journal online, l'Economiste, normally a fairly liberal publication. Fairly amusing in the end, and illustrative of the spill over effects of the public US diplomatic position.
Returning to the analysis on RFI that struck me this afternoon, RFI correctly noted that a good weathervane for the politics and effect of US policy are the Kuwaitis. As they noted, Kuwaiti commentary has turned to the Israeli-American aggression type phrasing. Of course, certainly the nicely emerging (now that it is admitted in public) Iraqi civil war is a fine lesson on the profit one takes from tieing up with a bumbler and a bunch of deluded incompetents.
Like a particularly grotesque car wreck, it is hard to refocus away from the self-inflicted disaster that is the Israelo-American offensive. I note that I use the term Israelo-American deliberately, insofar the transparent clumsiness and simple-mindedness with which the American government has virtually cheer-led the futile Israeli half-replay of its last Lebanon invasion merits the usage, it is after all in the rather typically shallow and deluded usage of the American president part of the 'global war on terror' - I look forward to the global war on drooling dilettantism myself, insofar as it is as likely to succeed and has more entertainment value in the interim. I might add it would be nice if someone occasionally informed the American Bumbler when his mates are losing, it might have saved the Poodle in Chief his current freefall from the mere association & of course Poodleness).
Some observations, then, on current situ:
Ah, where to begin?
I suppose it would be uncharitable to go back to early comments when this idiocy began, speaking to deterence of Hezbullah and the like. First, although this has certainly gotten play in the past several days, this amusing quote from Haas is worthy ofagain highlighting, for it underlines the strangely deluded nature of the current American's administration's position:
Haass, the former Bush aide who leads the Council on Foreign Relations, laughed at the president's public optimism. "An opportunity?" Haass said with an incredulous tone. "Lord, spare me. I don't laugh a lot. That's the funniest thing I've heard in a long time. If this is an opportunity, what's Iraq? A once-in-a-lifetime chance?"
Well, the once-in-a-lifetime chance to see singularly incompetent and delusional foreign policy by a bunch of Bolshy Right deluded ideologues who make the dupes of Soviet agitprop or even the drooling remnants of the comically deluded hard left look positively rational.
I suppose there are now dozens of stories emphasising the same as this FT one, that Hizbollah digs in for long fight as Lebanese support grows although the Americans and Israelis seem to be afflicted by some oddball delusion that contra the entire 90 to 2000 experience, somehow Hezbullah is 'crushable' militarily, in a useful sense. With, as the redoubtable Anthony Shadid (btw, for ages I kept reading his name as Shahide) reports, highly motivated Hezbullah fighters taking about fighting for their own territory and homes, "drawing on the deep anger among many in southern Lebanon over lack of support from Arab governments and, more sharply, the perception that the United States has encouraged the Israeli attacks", quoting a fighter making the kind of statement Americans usually love to hear "There are no borders to our self-defense", the US' inherently unlikely set of 'conditions' for a cease-fire, and opposition to somewhat more realistic French efforts (which at least start somewhere closer to reality) strike me as mere posturing, empty silly posturing. The kind of diplomacy one expects from third rate powers with leaderships unaware of the give and take of horse-trading necessary to make deals. And their own interest in seeing compromise over empty posturing.
But then as Roula Khalaf noted in FT, confirming plenty of other observers similar observations, the US diplo in chief seems to be largely concerned with burying America's image deeper into the pits, generating headlines such as France and Iran Step Into Diplomatic Vacuum.
So, dominating my TV and radio consumption, whether I like it or not, "The Israelo-American war" on Lebanon.
Where the Cedar Revolution leaders get to see where they are in the pecking order, no doubt to the immense encouragement of quasi-Liberals throughout the region.
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thats a damn fine cartoon, L. it made me laugh out loud at work!
Not sure where this ought to go, but this here is a mighty fine takedown of the bolshy-right's "Qana was faked" conspiracy theories.
Posted by: Tom Scudder at August 3, 2006 05:47 PM
seriously, L., easy enough for you lather the great bumbler and his error cascade, but what would you do? lets give you infinite power.
do you like the scowcroft solution?
or feel free to be creative and come up with your own.
i think it is far easier to critique than to create.
Posted by: jinnilyyah at August 4, 2006 10:45 PM
Well, it seems to me you're a drooling little internet troll, so I don't give a bloody fuck what you think or rather idiot empty stupidities such as "easier to critique than create."
Had you some vague reading comprehensive, idiot, you would have divined my suggestions already.
However, as you are bordreline retarded, a resume made explicit for your dimwitted self:
(i) The Americans should have engaged publically for a cease-fire early on, without the transparent public reservations, so as to better position itself for negotiations and preserve a freedom of action as well as plausible positioning;
(ii) Made it clear Israel did not have a blank cheque, for Israel's own benefit in the end;
(iii) Developed political position realistically tied to the Lebanese political situation to support own allies in the so-called Cedar Revolution (better known as certain Zaims against Syria) - i.e. none of this utterly khayali magical Hizbullah has to disappear nonsense;
(iv) Not engaged in the idiocy of directly linking its already failed 'War on Terror' nonsense.
That's the start.
As to the details, that would have depended on a stronger diplo position and a better reality. Scrowcroft certainlhy provides the Americans with a more realistic and grounded framework than the sheer idiocy that is current positioning.
And as to this for once, the right backed down its own conspiracy theory. One whanker is not 'The Right.'
Bloody Lunatic Bolshy Right in the US still has plenty left.
Posted by: The Lounsbury at August 5, 2006 10:38 AM
no, you did not answer my question.
those are all just more critiques of bumbled opportunities.
you don't have a time machine.
what would you do at precisely this point in the spacetime continuum? if scowcroft is a better framework, what would you add?
plz, give us the benefit of your vast intellect and MENA expertise/insight.
Posted by: jinnilyyah at August 5, 2006 03:07 PM
I answered your question, moron. That you want to run around in circles like the yelping dog you are is uninteresting to me.
Now, as to your insidious reframing, we don't have a bloody fucking magic wand either, so time machine or not, it's all bloody fucking hypothetical.
However, from this point in time forward it's more fucking complicated because it's all fucked into a cocked hat by the bloody damned idiocy to date.
A back-peddling operation is already in process, so it's rather a case of getting to the situ I already sketched out. The obvious difference is now its even harded, but rather as obviously one has to stop magically pretending that one can get change without negotiating with the concerned parties - Syria, Iran and Hezbullah. Talking in secret if necessary.
Posted by: The Lounsbury at August 5, 2006 04:37 PM
that was quite pragmatic.
Posted by: jinnilyyah at August 5, 2006 08:56 PM