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July 2006 Archives
July 31, 2006
The Economic Side of the Lebanon War
A bit back on my sub-blog I shared some musings on the economic impact of the conflict, which perhaps should be highlighted as the dogs of war are clearly out of the control of their master, and as dogs are wont to do, rather running amok against their own interests.
Some thoughts then on the impact of war regionally, from an economic perspective, and related thoughts on where the various markets may head. Very much seat of the pants by the way, and not profound.
Continue reading "The Economic Side of the Lebanon War"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:44 PM
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Filed Under: Economic Development
, Gulf
, Levant
Gross Incompetence & Contempt: Blindness on Lebanon
Although the macabre dance that is the war in Lebanon continues a depressingly predictable shuffle, the utter dilettentism that is the current American administration's diplomatic efforts - although efforts almost grants their clumsy, amateurish statements and reactive myopia too much dignity - continue to be breath taking. This AM, after the fine little Qana Bis blowing up of little girls (unsportingly exceeding certain understandings), I find myself greeted by the news that the amazingly incompetent Rice - I do officially take back everything positive I said with respect to her - suddenly finding that the time is right for a ceasefire. I am not sure that circumstances more detrimental to the image of the Americans in the region could have been fabricated by an enemy (except perhaps a 'transformation' statement). Of course, to be fair, at least she had that modicum of sense to stop the "permanent conditions" as a "pre-condition" idiocy.
Continue reading "Gross Incompetence & Contempt: Blindness on Lebanon"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:36 AM
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Filed Under: Foreign Policy & MENA
, Levant
, US Foreign Policy
Lebanon: Bloodletting at Qana
I badly underestimated the impact of the bombing in Qana - just one more building full of people. Yes, ironic that it should happen in the same village as the 1996 massacre, but it seemed to be just one more cruel irony added to this war, not the earth-shaking event it has turned into. Hizbullah has taken definitive advantage on the domestic political scene, and a return to the status quo ante looks less and less likely.
Asad Abu Khalil calls it a "coup d'etat":
Continue reading "Lebanon: Bloodletting at Qana"
Posted by tomscud at 05:20 AM
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Filed Under: Levant
July 30, 2006
Lebanon and the outlines of a ceasefire
The possible shape of a conflict-ending ceasefire seems to be swimming into focus, as Lebanese PM Fuad Seniora has gotten Hizbollah to sign on to a plan that includes an Israeli withdrawal from the Shebaa farms and ceding to Lebanon of some water rights; the takeover of security responsibility for southern Lebanon by an international force of some sort; an exchange of prisoners between Israel and Lebanon (possibly through Hizbollah turning over the Israeli prisoners to the Lebanese government so that Hizbollah and Israel don't have to suffer the mutual ignominy of negotiating with each other); and some sort of eventual disarmament of Hizbollah's armed wing.
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Posted by tomscud at 04:53 AM
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Filed Under: Levant
July 28, 2006
Be Saudi: Hire a Saudi
That is the message on a billboard that towers above Saudi cities and attempts to call upon the patriotism of Saudis when the many Saudisation schemes have failed. "Saudisation" is the process of mandatory government-sponsored affirmative action that aims to end the monopoly of expatriates, mainly in the fields of banking and government bureaucracies. The scheme initially was launched in order to get Saudis into middle management white-collar jobs but has recently descended into the realms of (shock, horror) retail businesses and supermarkets. As the Israel-Lebanon issue has now descended into the wrist-slashing realm of the depressing, I thought 'Aqoul would turn its attention to the merely-banging-head-against-the wall realm of the depressing.
Continue reading "Be Saudi: Hire a Saudi"
Posted by Meph at 10:48 AM
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Filed Under: Economic Policy
, Society & Culture
July 26, 2006
Vital reading
Sadly not yet available for review in Aqoul's books section, but certainly sorely needed by many international policymakers:
Continue reading "Vital reading"
Posted by secretdubai at 12:51 PM
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Filed Under: Foreign Policy & MENA
Slowly, Slowly into the Morass We Return (Updated)
The agonising replay (is it farce this time or tragedy?) of 82 continues. The New York Times article Israel Finding a Difficult Foe in Hezbollah amply illustrates the idiocy that is this Guns of August replay.
It is hard to decide what is most depressing. The predictability of the slow, inching back into the morass only exited in 2000, the delusional commentary from America which seems to have utterly abandoned critical thought, or the certainty of nasty blow-back as time goes on in this utterly (except for Hizbullah) Pyrrhic battle.
Continue reading "Slowly, Slowly into the Morass We Return (Updated)"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:18 AM
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Filed Under: EU Foreign Policy
, Levant
, US Foreign Policy
The Lockless Monster: Suez Canal Crisis 50th Anniversary Note
On July 26, 1956, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal Company, the operating company of the Suez Canal. Today's 50th anniversary of the lockless canal's main historical controversy may get lost due to all that noise currently going on over in the Levant. But the Suez Canal Crisis was pivotal for the modern Middle East/North African (MENA) region, climaxing in a war later that year that reoriented fundamental political perspectives and arrangements. By the Crisis's end, the old colonial powers were in full retreat, the superpowers of the US and USSR were the decisive big kids on the block, Israel and Egypt had lost any hope of near-term accomodation, and Nasser had become an area demigod by knowing how to lose on the ground but win in perception. And Ahmed Zaki later got an entire movie to play him, excellently made up as the Big Man by Lebanese makeup artist Marina.
Continue reading "The Lockless Monster: Suez Canal Crisis 50th Anniversary Note"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 01:31 AM
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Filed Under: Political Development
July 25, 2006
Magical Thinking, Purely Wishful
North Korea. It lacks exactness, but that is the precise analogy to the utterly bizarre, divorced from reality, unrealistic and wishful thinking world in which US policy on Lebanon and Israel is occuring. Magical, wishful and eventually will be forced to meet hard reality. Sad that hundreds will die pointlessly in the process, but c'est la vie, ach ghdi ngoulek, larab fqet, hmir bla qma.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:13 PM
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Filed Under: Op-Ed
, US Foreign Policy
July 24, 2006
Skillful Asymmetry & Spin (Israel-Lebanon Land War)
In the twilight realm that is the competing spin on the Israeli-Leb crisis, it is hard even to know where to begin, when our own yellow satire barely outdoes actual American commentary justifying civilian massacres.
However, I would suggest that the Superpower's bizarro-world approach to the crisis, infected as it is with utterly magical thinking as it reportedly is shopping for a 'coalition of the willing' [my term my dears] to "disarm" Hizbullah, and uniquely confirm its own allies as Quislings... [link restored]
The Financial Times, with fine understatement reports this evening that Rice ideas for peace disappoint in Beirut, although that may be about as much news as Israeli and Arab leaders don't see eye to eye.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:36 PM
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Filed Under: EU Foreign Policy
, Foreign Policy & MENA
, Levant
, US Foreign Policy
July 22, 2006
International Convention Needed on Blowing Off Little Girls' Faces
With little girls’ faces in the Middle East being blown off , and dangers of it continuing for a while longer, our clandestine correspondent has learned of a rare ultra-secret “face to face” meeting that has been going on to limit it. With the aid of an international mediator, an Israeli representative and a Hizbullah representative have gotten together to discuss the parameters of a Fifth Geneva Convention on Standards for Ripping or Blowing Little Girls’ Faces Off. Some of the text has leaked to ‘Aqoul, below. (This is not to be mixed up with little girls being encouraged to sign death messages on artillery shells that might blow off little girls' faces.)
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Posted by Top Secret Anonymous Guy at 07:18 PM
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Filed Under: Levant
, Op-Ed
July 21, 2006
Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)
Although less impressive than the scenes you can catch of the Arab Sats, this Al Jazeerah arty (Arabic) Continued Criticisms of Israeli Hostilities Against Lebanon and Palestine / استمرار التنديد بالعدوان الإسرائيلي على لبنان وفلسطين conveys in pictures (and of course text) the Islamic world reaction after the Friday prayers. The demos shown on the telly in Amman, Cairo, and Damascus were particularly large relative to the security presence. The article also notes the khutub (sermons) in particular in Baghdad; oddly perhaps the Israelis will provide Iraqis an inter-ethnic rally point.
Continue reading "Lebanon-Israel Crisis: The Demos Start (Updated)"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:24 PM
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Filed Under: EU Foreign Policy
, Foreign Policy & MENA
, Levant
, MENA Region General
, US Foreign Policy
July 20, 2006
Spin, US Diplos and Delusions (Leb Land Encore)
While my preference might be to blither on about some Islamic finance developments, it strikes me no one will pay attention presently given all the fun everyone is having with the exciting spectacle of Israelis and Lebs poking each other's eyes out, so let's get back to that.
I was amused to stop by The Belgravia Dispatch and read that one of the Right Bolshy loons at the National Review Online has it from "someone very close to U.S. policy-making on the Mideast" that the " Lebanese government is happy to see Israel pound Hezbollah, but can't say it out loud." Djerejian then links to the very FT interview with Siniora that I quoted previously.
Continue reading "Spin, US Diplos and Delusions (Leb Land Encore)"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:18 PM
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Filed Under: Levant
July 19, 2006
Diminishing Returns, UK comment on Israel-Lebanon madness & Leb PM interview
My colleagues more closely involved in this Guns of August reminiscent fiasco that is the current Leb-Israel violence - Tom and Raf Bey - are better placed to comment on immediate things, but I wished before turning attention to Arab media to highlight some further Times commentary worthy of notice:
First, Britain fears assault on Hezbollah will backfire rather captures my own sense of the irrationality of the extent (nota bene: extent, not fact) of the Israeli response. Air raids and the like, nor even likely an invasion and occupation (as the period 90-00 showed), will not break Hizbullah, above all not in a dynamic where "degrading infrastructure" on a country-wide level is simply going to generate (except in the surreal US media) less and less sympathetic imagery.
Continue reading "Diminishing Returns, UK comment on Israel-Lebanon madness & Leb PM interview"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:47 PM
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Filed Under: Levant
America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary
I sometimes wonder what it is about American media that leads to quite such utterly delusional commentary on the Middle East. Following up on my initial gut reaction, some more thoughts on the utterly surreal American whanking. (see also Lounsbury)
Drawing on The Times commentary blog, Times News Desk: World comment: how does it end?:
Continue reading "America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:00 PM
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Filed Under: Foreign Policy & MENA
, Levant
, US Foreign Policy
July 18, 2006
Lebanon: Refugees
"Refugees" seems to be the word for the day. While European countries and America are arranging sea-borne evacuations of citizens, many have already taken the land route out to Syria. A lot have gotten out; some didn't make it. UNHCR is reporting that the majority of those crossing the border into Syria are of Syrian nationality.
In the meantime, more than 60,000 Lebanese are trying their luck within the country, and other Lebanese are helping them out. Anthony Shadid has a piece in today's Post that expands on dispatches yesterday by Brian Whitaker and Chris Allbritton (no doubt among others).
Continue reading "Lebanon: Refugees"
Posted by tomscud at 10:31 AM
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Filed Under: Levant
July 17, 2006
The Shaykh, the "Other Guys", and Lebanon in the Middle
When, last Friday, I saw my fellow 'Aqoulite Tom's post on "What was Hizbollah thinking?" my immediate reaction was "Dude, what are you TALKING about???" and I was about to start writing a reply when ... well, life kinda got in the way.
So, with a little delay, my answer to Tom and take on the 2006 Summer War:
Continue reading "The Shaykh, the "Other Guys", and Lebanon in the Middle"
Posted by raf* at 08:36 PM
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Filed Under: Levant
Lebanon: Sectarian impact, sectarian reactions
Anthony Shadid continues his fine work from Lebanon, surveying four neighborhoods in the city and people's different reactions, especially to Hizbullah. A Shi'ite doctor in Dahiya expresses his admiration for the culture of resistance; a Sunni architect sees two cultures in Lebanon: a culture of resistance and a culture of accommodation; a bar-owner in Gemayzeh says he's had it, and isn't willing to give up his own happiness for someone else's principled struggle; and a couple 20-year-old kids in Achrefieh, the heart of Maronite Beirut, openly cheer for the Israelis to "crack their heads".
Continue reading "Lebanon: Sectarian impact, sectarian reactions"
Posted by tomscud at 08:00 AM
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Filed Under: Levant
July 15, 2006
Lebanon Roundups & Open thread
I'll start a new thread some time, but for now this one will do. There will be some new material after the flip, since Eerie seems to have been a bit irritated at the spammy nature of my last update. So pure linkage before the flip, and some comments afterward, along with all the old links.
Sunday PM:
A conversation with (someone's) dad
Letter from Beirut at 3 quarks daily
Round-the-world protest schedule from lebanonexpats.org.
Billmon has some big-picture analysis (part 1 and part 2), as does Chris Allbritton
Continue reading "Lebanon Roundups & Open thread"
Posted by tomscud at 08:26 AM
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Filed Under: Levant
July 14, 2006
What was Hizbollah thinking?
The question of the day (or at least the question that I can answer from across a comfortable amount of mediterranean from where things are actually happening) is "What was Hizbollah THINKING?" There are a number of speculations of how the kidnapping of the soldiers is part of a scheme by Syria or Iran to upset the region, regain influence in Lebanon and give Israel a black eye. I'm not going to totally count these explanations out, but I'd like to consider how a group like Hizbollah could have come to this decision without outside pressure. Bear in mind that I don't claim any knowledge of the party's inner debates.
Continue reading "What was Hizbollah thinking?"
Posted by tomscud at 05:48 AM
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Filed Under: Levant
July 13, 2006
Season of Migration to the West: Gulf London
Ah summer in London town, it wouldn't be the same without the Arabs parading down Oxford Street and patronising the cafes of Mayfair. Grossly made up Gulf women tottering in their high hooker heels buying perfume in Selfridges and Harrods and then finishing off a day of shopping with some strong coffee or even the illicit sugary alcoholic drink. The casual observer reels from passive amusement to sickening anger at the decadence and the smugness of the swarm that descends on the city and with its prams and shopping bags and Bentleys, generally getting in the way and giving the proverbial middle finger to honest nine to fivers trying to grab a quick lunch before they get back to their grind and contemplate the exorbitant taxes they have to pay for the privelege of living in Great Britain.
Continue reading "Season of Migration to the West: Gulf London"
Posted by bint ash-shaitan at 09:23 AM
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Filed Under: Op-Ed
, Society & Culture
July 11, 2006
French Immigration Policy: Proactive vs. Endured
Editor's Intro: While the subject matter of our commentator, Shaheen, may seem far afield from our Middle East-North Africa concerns, in fact the problems of French immigration laws, French labour laws and the like are really 'domestic' to North Africa. French models are slavishly copied by the North African states, and the environment in France especially has large echoes back in the Maghreb where hundreds of thousands of French residents return like lemmings every year. Both directly then, and indirectly, this has a large social, political and legal echo in the Maghreb, and especially in connexion with the lack of economic opportunity and cancerous growth of ghettos - in France, in Europe and yes, in the Maghreb itself. Certainly this editor deeply believes that 'social exclusion' tied to ethnicity is a key driver of extremism. Eerie, our benevolent Editor in Chief and myself are grateful to Shaheen for taking the time to comment with an insider's view of the situ. - The Lounsbury
Continue reading "French Immigration Policy: Proactive vs. Endured"
Posted by Shaheen at 07:17 PM
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Filed Under: Ethnic Minorities
, North Africa
, Religious Minorities
, Society & Culture
July 07, 2006
How Islamic credit works
From Adventures In Dubai, a practical example of modern Islamic finance:
Continue reading "How Islamic credit works"
Posted by secretdubai at 06:04 PM
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Filed Under: Gulf
July 04, 2006
Google Expansion & MENA - Market Interest in MENA
A rather quick note to draw attention to what may be a somewhat under noticed story, from FT: Google looks to expand in Middle East.
I noticed this when my usual robot searches brought up this on both the career angle and the news site searches. An interesting development.
Continue reading "Google Expansion & MENA - Market Interest in MENA"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:38 PM
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Filed Under: Business, Private
, Economic Development
, MENA Region General
July 02, 2006
Jihadist Prudence: Gitmo Tribunal Decision
For those interested, a text of the Hamdan v. Rumsfeld decision can be found here. That's the very recent U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down the military tribunals President Bush established by Executive Order for prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The decision is a bit convoluted given that the Court had to first torture the interpretation of a very specific law which prohibited courts from hearing these habeas corpus petitions made by Gitmo prisoners. (The Court reasons that the prohibition doesn't apply to those petitions, such as Hamdan's, which had already been filed when that anti-habeas law was passed in 2005.) While I favor the overall result of the case, I do share dissenting Justice Thomas' pique at the majority's sleight of hand jurisprudence and their evasion of the application of plain language and common sense on that particular issue.
Continue reading "Jihadist Prudence: Gitmo Tribunal Decision"
Posted by Matthew Hogan at 09:38 AM
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Filed Under: Foreign Policy & MENA
, Terrorism
, US Foreign Policy
July 01, 2006
New Month Happy Birthday Thread
In keeping with tradition, an open thread for new readers to introduce themselves and ask questions. Regulars may continue wanking on in the usual fashion.
Also, July 4th is Aqoul's first birthday. Gushing praise and/or ideas for improvement are welcome. Real life permitting, I am planning a retrospective of sorts (most popular or controversial posts, etc). Readers are free to suggest their favourite entries, just drop me an email sometime this weekend.
Posted by eerie at 10:40 AM
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Filed Under: Site News
