'Aqoul: Morocco: Pimping Pleasure or Stalling Out? (Economist)

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April 11, 2006

Morocco: Pimping Pleasure or Stalling Out? (Economist)

The present Economist contains an intriguing article covering part of my brief, and a somewhat neglected corner of the MENA world, Morocco. Morocco attracts rather little attention in the "Anglo Saxon" world, despite having racked up some interesting political and economic wins in the past year, so perhaps a quick commentary then on the article, and the state of things in this rather strategically located country.

In his father's shadow
Morocco's faltering transition to democracy under King Mohammed VI
Apr 6th 2006

(for more royal photos see http://www.marocinfo.net/royal/)

First, rather like the "faltering" story that The New York Times ran as a comment on the Bush Administration, I find it more than a bit pat to be calling Morocco's political progress 'faltering." Of course, my first contact with Morocco was back in the dark "days of lead," well nigh 20 odd years ago, so perhaps I suffer slightly from a bit of telescoping.

That being said, it seems far fairer to call the Egyptian "reforms" faltering than the Moroccan. (Jordan, touched on in the NYT arty is another case entirely).

Moving to the article, the opening is certainly upbeat and I think accurate:

FOR visitors to Morocco's twin capitals—one political, the other economic—it is hard not to think that they represent the exception to the political decrepitude that seems to plague the Arab world. The bright mimosas and bougainvilleas of Rabat and the bustling business centre of Casablanca form a striking contrast with the dreary shabbiness and laissez-aller encountered elsewhere in the region. So does the political atmosphere: where else do truth and reconciliation commissions discuss torture cases on public television, or newspapers publish critiques of a head of state along with details of his private finances, or women live (at least on paper) under a more progressive family law?

On the last, the Mouddaouana, has seen a 40 percent decline in divorces - "on paper" is not a snide remark I would attach to this law. Indeed, while it was criticised for not going far enough etc. etc. from the usual whinging suspects, I have the sense the revised (Sharia) law is a winner.

“Morocco is advancing at a slow pace, but it will get there in time,” says one Western diplomat. “It's a model for reform—the best we have in a bad neighbourhood.”

I don't know about that, but in political terms, well, maybe. Economic terms, eh..... I have my concerns.

Regardless, the next paragraph is right to draw attention to proper frames of reference:

For most Moroccans though, the point of reference is not Algeria's brutal military oligarchy or Tunisia's police state. It is not even “les années de plomb” (the years of lead) of the 1970s and 80s when political repression in Morocco was at its fiercest. Rather, it is the expectation of democratic transition first promised by the late king, Hassan II, in the early 1990s and reinforced by Mohammed VI's accession to the throne in 1999. But, despite some important milestones, Moroccans remain dissatisfied. For some, the country is democratising too fast, straight into the hands of Islamists eager to impose a reactionary moral order. For others, a cabal of former royal schoolmates in key public posts is simply exploiting Morocco's slowly liberalising economy for their own ends.

Emphasis added.

I can attest that when I am in town among the business crowd and among the coterie of friends I have built up over the decades, I have begun to hear some echos of the first type of complaint, as well as more general complaints that the momentum of the early 00s is or has petered out.

The issue of economic liberalisation is a rather more fraught one, as French intellectual influence is balefully strong in Morocco (as the rest of the Maghreb), and intellectual support for real liberalisation is thin. Mercantalist quasi-demonopolisations are another matter, and I might yet work up a rant as to the sheer lunacy of the "accordian" operation the Moroccan government pulled off with one of the state banks (which unlike in Egypt are economically insignificant wastes of time that would be better fully privatised) with a split share pricing (one "market" and one "state" with a vast difference in pricing - an operational idiocy in my opinion rendering the "market" operation a farce - might as well have saved themselves some bloody lawyering and bankers fees and done a straight-out state recapitalisation),)

I digress, but as throughout the MENA region but especially in the Maghreb where the idiocies of French dirigisme are still influential, real liberalisation remains a dream that too many Maghrebines consider a nightmare.

But more on this later.

The harshest critics say that the reform process is a lure—a distraction from the fact that power is still concentrated in the hands of one man and abused by a coterie of technocratic yes-men. “They swindled us,” laments Abou Bakr Jamai, editor-in-chief of Morocco's most irreverent magazine, Le Journal Hebdomadaire: “Mohammed VI had enormous political capital when he began. But he squandered it.”

I know where Jmai is coming from, but that's way too overstated. Squandered?

In February, Mr Jamai was sentenced to pay the largest fine ever imposed in a Moroccan libel case after he alleged that the government had paid a Brussels think-tank to produce a pro-Moroccan report on the Western Sahara conflict. Another French-language weekly, TelQuel, was likewise sued for libel—twice—and given disproportionate fines shortly after publishing articles critical of the monarchy, though the matters were officially unrelated. The Moroccan judiciary is notoriously subservient to the crown.

Actually one of the Tel Quel fines was related to a fat idiot of a cow of a "represenatative" and not the Crown. The Fat Baggara, however, has connexions.

On the first item, there are two items to retain:
One the accusation re a Bruxelles based entity. Belgian think tanks are often thought to be corrupt. Indeed, Belgians suffer a most atrocious reputation in this area. Triviality.

Second, the Western Sahara ridiculousness - for which Morocco pisses away important sums to control some very shoddy desert for the dream of some oil deposits and to make sure the Algerians don't get ahold of it (it is hard to say which is actually more important, I'd tend to say the later) - one of the last areas of no-go for conversations and where Moroccan communications skills regress back to turgid 1960 style Sov agitprop. It's both pitiful and hard to explain. Pitiful as the Moroccans could tell a decent story - hard to explain for the same reason.

Now, moving on to a point that I have to say irritates me to no end, that hypocritical lying neo Salafi cunt Nadia Yassine:

The most egregious example of this judicial revanchisme is the case against Nadia Yassine, daughter of the leader of a banned Islamist group, Adl Wal Ihsane (Justice and Charity). She is on trial for insulting the monarchy after making an off-the-cuff comment to a magazine asserting that Moroccans “would not die if we didn't have a king”. The media-savvy Ms Yassine is now using the trial to publicise her fierce criticism of the regime, denouncing its “superficial democratic reforms” and advocating her Sufi-inspired brand of Islam “as an antidote to violence”. She is demanding the abolition of Article 19 of the constitution enshrining the king's role as Commander of the Faithful.

Sufi inspired?

That's something new for the addle minded Western reporters. Her Father's connexion with Sufism notwithstanding, I would hardly called Adl wal Ihsane "Sufi inspired."

It was probably a tactical error to put the cunt on trial, but typical of the clumsiness of the old guard, the Makhzen.

Ahmed Benchemsi, TelQuel's editor-in-chief, is more sanguine about the considerable reforms achieved, seeing the occasional backlash as par for the course. But he remains worried. “The monarchy doesn't understand that it needs to democratise for its own sake,” he says: “The status quo is not sustainable.” Moroccans feel frustrated. The high hopes they had in the new “king of the poor” have not materialised. Despite progress, Morocco is still an absolute monarchy where dire poverty coexists alongside lavish wealth. An average growth rate of around 5% over the past five years has done little to create jobs or alleviate the plight of the poorest.

True, true, true.

You have two economies. A modern economy that is just showing signs that it might know how to compete (although solving issues such as an utterly dysfunctional port dominated by dinosaur trade unions constantly bickering over issues of the 1960s, various commercial infrastructure issues, and a bit of a doukakine mentality among Moroccan businessmen - including entrepreneurs - that dovetails with visa challenges to make for low aggressivity) and an off the books economy that is getting the life squeezed out of it by cheap chinese manufactures.

Something near half the economy is off the books. Call it grey, call it black, call it informal. It is a problem. A rather De Sotoesque kind of problem really, of capital and entreprenurial energy trapped in the economic scale of the "Really Small Enterprise" by both obstrusive and idiotic regulation copied from France without much thought to appropriateness or cost-benefit analysis, and by the Old Boys Club. more on that in a minute, it is a bit more insidious than the more obvious challenges.

Almost daily, unemployed graduates protest in front of parliament to demand government jobs which, although low paid, are at least secure. In December, several students set themselves on fire, screaming “a civil-service job or death”. None actually died, but many were badly burned.

Actually these kind of demos have become far rarer over the years, and the whole lighting oneself up struck everyone as a rather outre gesture of the desperate, clinging onto a dream (guaranteed state jobs for uni graduates) that everyone has long understood was dead.

The protests make nice foreign journo colour commentary but are really indicative of nothing except the remaining influence of French dirigiste thinking, for all that among the most popular TV show last year domestically was a show focused on entrepreneurship.

However, this analysis is spot on:

A failing [ed: public] education system does little to prepare Moroccans for life in the private sector. A landmark education law, aimed at remedying the situation, was passed in 2000.But it has never been implemented. The opposition from teachers' unions and other entrenched interests was too strong. Politicians are generally seen as either unwilling or unable to carry out reforms without the king leading the way.

The teacher's trade union position on educational system reforms is scandalous and frankly the entire apparatus deserves to be abolished. As most of the public trade unions, they're stuck in a strange time warp, as if they're in the 1970s, fighting the same battles. Disgusting really.

As for the actual content of the educational system, the upper levels of the public education system are just fantastically over rigid, both from the perspective of the potential employer looking for potential staff, and for the student. Again, very French modelled, only in many ways worse.

Many students of modest families take supplementary studies in private schools, either full time or part time. An extraordinary, jaw droppingly extensive waste of state resources, the entire educational system.

Even the current favourite to win next year's parliamentary elections, the Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD), plays by the rules of ba'ya, the traditional pledge of allegiance to the monarchy. So far, the party has offered few new ideas to distinguish itself in the political field. Its most innovative contribution to the economic debate has been to suggest that Morocco specialise in tourism and retirement homes for European pensioners rather than seeking to attract young (and morally lax) travellers.

Actually, re PJD proposal (who despite the venom they attract from all the secularists, at least show themseles more realistically engaged with the real problems in the country - but this refrain is what one has to write again and again with respect to the Islamist parties in the region, while the secularists are clownish sideshows, has-beens, or out-right stalking horses of the regime) , it rather makes sense and could have a lot of knock on development effects if done in an integrated way.

A similar lack of imagination marks the intractable dispute over the Western Sahara. Reformists have long argued that a large degree of autonomy for the region within a more decentralised and democratic Morocco would give the government a powerful argument against Sahrawi secessionists and their growing number of international supporters. Ahead of this month's UN deadline for the resumption of the stalled peace process, the king asked all political parties for their views on how to solve the conflict. Predictably, they reiterated the king's own vague ideas for limited regional autonomy. Even on such a crucial question, all eyes look to the king, either to assign blame or to provide an impetus for change.

Well, noted above already on this, but I am not sure I would characterise the Western Sahara puppet game as gaining international support, one way or another.

Rather, the issue rightly joined is the degree to which Moroccans naturally look to the Big Guy for cues on change in areas like this.

A weakness, but neither something changed overnight either.

The article extends this to a fairly strong statement

By keeping most of the levers of power in his hands, King Mohammed has perpetuated the emasculation of the body politic established by his father. The king, and not the government, controls the ministries of defence, foreign affairs and the interior as well as countless commissions and authorities. He is the country's most important farmer, biggest banker and most active venture capitalist. Most of the innovative ideas over the past few years—the Equity and Reconciliation Commission's investigation into human-rights abuses under King Hassan, an ambitious human-development initiative designed to eradicate poverty, a report marking last month's 50th anniversary of Moroccan independence that offered an unprecedented independent critique of government policy —have been royal projects.

Some exageration there, but Royal holdings (non-transparent and touching on virtually every sector) are the dominant players historically, in terms of economic activity. The new slogans, adopted from France, fresh cut from de Villepin's gardens, touting National Champions smell like old wine in new bottles.

But none of the oligarchs - not just the Royal ones - like the rising level of competition, and with trade barriers coming down, most are feeling pain. The challenge is to develop responses that envigorate or better enable the entreprenurial spirit that genuinely bubbling in the country. Easier said that done, to be sure, as the Oligarchs don't like to lose.

In countless public buildings, cafés and shops, gold-framed portraits of King Hassan still dwarf those of the present monarch.

Do they?

I do not know.

I do know that one can draw political conclusions about one's interlocutor by the relative size and placement of the Hassan II versus M6.

I am not sure I have the data to assert that Hassan's portrait's dominate.

In the 1990s, Moroccans eagerly awaited Mohammed's accession, hoping he would usher in a real transition to democracy, as had Spain's King Juan Carlos, just across the straits of Gibraltar, two decades earlier. Morocco has no blueprint for its transition.

Eh.

I'd give that entire statement a toss.

The king is a notoriously bad communicator, granting few interviews and seeming ill at ease when delivering royal speeches. A Juan Carlos may have been a bit too much to expect, but Moroccans would at least like a clear a vision of future governance—if only to know where they stand.

Notoriously bad communicator? Rubbish. He speaks well, when he has to. The real issue is does he want to be a ruling, active king or a hands off king? Delegate or rule? At present, by all accounts, he's rather the latter by instinct and habit - he likes his jetski - but the structures in place that he has left in place in fact, require an active ruling king.

Paralysis can result, often does.

When it comes right down to it, M6 needs a Richeliue sort - a positie emminence grise. I would state without hesittation that in common with most of the Maghrebines, the Moroccans are not yet there in terms of political society development, but the maturity of Maghrebine society with respect to institutionalisation of political forms and economic forms. Certainly the personal aspect exists, but to take an example, when you deal with a Maghrebine bank you are largely dealing with an institution. In the Machreq, I can only rarely say that. Tribe and personality dominate (although institution is not absent).

I personally consider that to be an important step forward in establishing the kind of modern institutions that can engage in fair play (usually).

The conclusion here, if I may take one on, runs back to the core Lounsbury observation that (i) Economic liberalisation is job one, (ii) political liberalisation puts down its roots from that, and only where the real spectrum of opinion is brought into the game, (iii) may in the short run be rather inconvenient for short term Western interests. That is worth it, if genuine pluralism is established.

Faux pluralism made up of "Modernisers who look just like us, talk our language and ignore the real idioms of the masses" is mere whanking for the coffee sipping diletante.

On the issue of pimping or stalling out, well, I don't know. The King's whores still want to be seen with him, but do America's whores? The problem back east, as described in Democracy in the Arab World, a U.S. Goal, Falters is that the US wants to dress up some old whores in new outfits, and pretend things have changed. The US needs to recognise some new girls on the block - and maybe even a few eye catching indies willing to play on the side - are needed to even really have the game.

Posted by The Lounsbury at April 11, 2006 06:13 AM
Filed Under: Business, Private , Economic Development , Economic Policy , North Africa , Op-Ed , Political Development , Society & Culture

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Comments

Thanks, Lounsbury, nice analysis.

In re the "core Lounsbury observation", I assume it's political liberalization that you think may be a short-term inconvenience for the west. Or do you mean economic liberalization is, too? If so, how? Because it upsets the oligarchs and makes current relationships more difficult?

Posted by: robert at April 11, 2006 04:12 AM

I did mean political liberalisation, although economic liberalisation is also a short-term challenge as it upsets the oligarchs' apple-carts and if it is not done in a way to support "the small scale economy" it can end up being not liberalisation but mercantilism.

There are clear signs of that emerging in the MENA region, and too few of the UK, US and EU policy makers in this area are aware and/or worried (in the case of the French, they're aware and fine with it, believing in Dirigiste mercantilism).

Posted by: The Lounsbury at April 11, 2006 04:23 PM

I read that article myself. This struck me as being a very intriguing idea.

Its most innovative contribution to the economic debate has been to suggest that Morocco specialise in tourism and retirement homes for European pensioners rather than seeking to attract young (and morally lax) travellers.

Becoming the Florida of Europe could be a huge money spinner. I can really see this working. Morocco isn't going to get into the European Union so it's not going to be able to address unemployment by having people emmigrate. Europe needs service workers and that demand is only going to increase as its population ages. If you can't send unemployed Moroccans to the pensioners, why not send pensioners to the unemployed Moroccans?

This is something that would benefit European governments, too. The cost of pensions and health care is going to kill them over the next few decades. I bet they could save billions by encouraging people to take up residence in North Africa and setting up "branch" hospitals under their national health schemes.

Pensioners are the ideal immigrants for a place like Morocco. Every one of them is a walking cash machine.

Posted by: Anonymous at April 12, 2006 12:17 AM

The Cyprus plan. It could work.

Posted by: Tom Scudder at April 12, 2006 02:31 AM

Cyprus plan?

Posted by: The Lounsbury at April 12, 2006 06:55 PM

Get a lot of rich pensioners to come down and drop lots of money to sit on the beach and sip drinks with umbrellas in.

(Plus maybe some off-shore financial stuff, maybe optional).

Posted by: Tom Scudder at April 12, 2006 07:44 PM

Ah, you refer to Cyprus' econ development.

Well, I am not sure what Cyprus actually gets in terms of UK pensioner business. Do you have a data source on that? I had the impression that their flows in this area were more dominated by Yobos getting piss drunk in Limasol and the like.

The off shore financial services are not going to cut it, no Russia & Ukrainian mob business.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at April 12, 2006 08:13 PM

No data, just a sense of there being a hell of a lot of old british-types moldering away in little villages all over the place - a lot of them ex-army who had been stationed at Akrotiri back in the day. I think they're getting priced out, these days.

Posted by: Tom Scudder at April 12, 2006 08:24 PM

Re Anon (and can't you bloody people just make up a bloody name for yourselves? It fucking annoys me. Anon. Anon. Anon. Be a bit creative you lazy whinging stupid gits. Why not "Super Anon," "Lazy Scum Anon"? Waste of human flesh, the lot of you.)

Quite right regarding the appropriateness of the general plan.

Frankly, the PJD is spot on that as a relatively conservative country, Morocco can't win at the Sex and Beach angle. Other places will out do them. Simple as that. Mind you, Moroccan beaches (and I mean the ones which only Moroccans go to) are quite... 'advanced' and often would put an American beach to shame with respect to outfits (and certainly with ease with respect to the ratio of appropriate body type to appropriate outfit).

However, being pretty damn stable, having lots of appropriate and fairly attractive real estate, and a decent (if imperfect) infrastructure base, they can certainly offer up excellent retirement villages.

Taking your comment: Becoming the Florida of Europe could be a huge money spinner.

Not only a huge money spinner, but also an ideal way to generate win-win infrastructure across the board. Roads, medical facilities, etc.

I can really see this working. Morocco isn't going to get into the European Union so it's not going to be able to address unemployment by having people emmigrate. Europe needs service workers and that demand is only going to increase as its population ages. If you can't send unemployed Moroccans to the pensioners, why not send pensioners to the unemployed Moroccans?

Precisely.

Distances involved are trivial: West Euro pensioners will be within easy flying distance of family and friends in Europe-Land, as well as any cutting edge treatment they need.

Costs relative to Euro Land are trivial, huge saving for the pensioner, plus you get to have servents and all that.

Languages a bit of an issue. One does not want to be stuck with just French pensioners, crabby cheapskates that they are. Ideally German and Scandinavians could be pulled in. Moroccans are solid in languages, training is a real possibility.

Absolutely, plus you could work in a "social side" and mandate some percentage of the medical infrastructure be opened to Moroccans, both on a for pay basis and for some indigents.

I think it would be feasible for private ventures to do this. Main profit centers would be the Euro pensioners plus some Moroccans, but you have knock on effects by keeping more Drs in country, training up the nursing pool, and to make sure there isn't the political blow back, offer some percentage of treatment to low-income Moroccans.

One would have to finesse the Moroccan medical staff versus expat staff issue as well, but a well-run facility could do it.

Pensioners are the ideal immigrants for a place like Morocco. Every one of them is a walking cash machine.

Absolutely, and the "retirement cities" or the like would be perfect for northern shore developments.

Luckily PJD is tabling the proposal before a Tourism minister who used to be in Private Equity.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at April 12, 2006 08:28 PM

Right, well they're less a strategy than accidental leftovers of Empire.

I'm thinking more along the lines of major developments business.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at April 12, 2006 08:30 PM

And no one had questions about the Royal photo?

Bloody Aqoul.

Post about sex and shaving the privates, oh 40 odd responses and every other kind of debate.

Some noodling about economic development.....

Posted by: The Lounsbury at April 12, 2006 08:33 PM

M6 is rather dishy, but I believe I've mentioned this before.

Posted by: eerie at April 12, 2006 08:48 PM

Afraid I don't see it myself, but bloody hell, that's not what I meant.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at April 12, 2006 08:57 PM

And no one had questions about the Royal photo?

Fine. What's up with the royal photo?

I have philosophical issues with faux internet personas. Or I'm shy. Or whatever. Will it kill you, Collounsbury, to just respond to the content of the bloody post? And you say I'm a lazy, whinging git.

My thoughts exactly. I completely agree with all your infrastructure points, as well. The key, I think, is to tie the deal in with Eurpoean national governments. Once you get a plan in place for Germany or England (or even France) to reimburse/pay for health care, you've got a license to print money. I would invest in this. How much is beach front property going for in Morocco?

I actually know some people who are building retirment villages in Hawaii. They have to beat off the pensioners with a stick and Hawaii is not at all cheap. Of course, Hawaii doesn't have the infrastructure issues. But those "infrastructure issues" are actually just another way to make money providing things pencil out.

Posted by: Anonymous at April 12, 2006 09:59 PM

And no one had questions about the Royal photo?

Fine. What's up with the royal photo?

Ah fuck off, that's not a question, that's humouring me. Stupid bloody Anons.

I have philosophical issues with faux internet personas. Or I'm shy. Or whatever. Will it kill you, Collounsbury, to just respond to the content of the bloody post? And you say I'm a lazy, whinging git.

Damned right you're a lazy git. Okay, from now on it's Lazy Scum Anon for you.

Now, as to the idea:
I think it would be feasible for private ventures to do this. Main profit centers would be the Euro pensioners plus some Moroccans, but you have knock on effects by keeping more Drs in country, training up the nursing pool, and to make sure there isn't the political blow back, offer some percentage of treatment to low-income Moroccans.

Depends on where on the coast and the like. I haven't any figures in my head, but my JV partner, who does RE does. Should check. Generally speaking dirt cheap.

The challenge is the formal EU hook up.

However, a short-cut is to start with the medical people and the various pensioner services that already exist. Already some medical outsourcing goes on (not called that, of course, the media would go crazy - overseas retirement services etc), tie those in and you create a core.

True, the issue is initial fear. Obviously with the French and Spanish communities there are already a group who have bought into the idea. I am less conversant with the Scandinavians, but am convinced they would be generally the most lucrative. Requires a bit of research.

But as a general matter, if the Government provides a "Center" - say Tangiers Retirement City to seed with the basics and enough security to a private developer, you can get the first model off the ground. Dubai style with enough splash and size as to get attention to leverage for expansion.

The right mix in terms of distance is also key. I am thinking the Tangiers area where coastal prices should be less than farther south, and with the new autoroute, accessibility is better. Bring in one of the Supermarket chains and you are set.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at April 12, 2006 10:37 PM

I would think language would be an issue - part of what made Cyprus work as a pensioners' dream home was that you can get around quite handily there in English - I don't know Morocco very well, but I'd think that you'd be better off targeting French and maybe Spanish speakers, at least to start with.

Posted by: Tom Scudder at April 13, 2006 08:54 AM

Damned right you're a lazy git. Okay, from now on it's Lazy Scum Anon for you.

I suppose I could write a monograph, In Defense of Anonymous Posting. In the alternative, you could save me time and you tedious reading and just take my word for it.

Ah fuck off, that's not a question, that's humouring me. Stupid bloody Anons.

Pshaw. What are we supposed to do? Play twenty questions? If you're not going to spill, I'll just assume that Mrs. M6 is your JV partner's cousin and that you are, therefore, perfectly positioned to advance our scheme to factory farm German pensioners on Moroccan beaches.

The challenge is the formal EU hook up.

Yes. On reflection, I can see one possible downside for EU governments. All that pension money being spent at home provides an economic stimulus for their economies, too. On the other hand, while I haven't tried working it out, I bet the savings would be too huge to ignore. I've seen seen statistics on this and, IIRC, home care is a winner all around, it's (potentially) much cheaper to provide and provides a much better quality of life. The problem is, it's typically inefficient and there aren't enough providers to go around.

But by creating a critical mass of well-off elderly pensioners in a place with a relatively poor, young population, you can solve all these problems at a stroke. Your point about having "servants" is excellent. Most people aren't forced into institutions because they need complex medical care but because they can no longer cope with the difficulties of day-to-day living. Having a "service infrastructure" designed around that solves a whole host of problems.

Perhaps the Government wouldn't even need to do that much. Ideally, I'd imagine a "retirement zone" sort of like the Panama Canal Zone except, of course, still under the control of the Moroccan government. The idea would be to provide a secure area (only authorized people allowed in) but large enough for substantial expansion so you can leverage all the infrastructure you have to put in initially. Is this politically feasible?

If you could get the legal relationships in place and done correctly, raising the capital ought to be relatively easy, even for putting in the basic infrastructure. I don't think the Moroccan government would have to put up a dime.

Posted by: Anonymous at April 13, 2006 12:46 PM

It's not my fault. The board kept telling me my posting had failed.

Posted by: Anonymous at April 13, 2006 12:57 PM

On Anon Posting
CL: Damned right you're a lazy git. Okay, from now on it's Lazy Scum Anon for you.

A: I suppose I could write a monograph, In Defense of Anonymous Posting. In the alternative, you could save me time and you tedious reading and just take my word for it.

Rubbish.

First, for the time being abusing you for posting anonymously amuses me.

Second, Adding a slight differentiation to the Anon, such as Lazy Scum Anon shows a certain panache.

Royal Pics
Ah fuck off, that's not a question, that's humouring me. Stupid bloody Anons.

Nope, I shall not comment on the photo out of pure spite.

The challenge is the formal EU hook up.

I believe some link ups are perfectly workable. There is only so many pensioners who would be willing to undertake such a scheme, an option as it were.

Presented to the English and Scandinavians as an optionality, you should get less of the nationalist / mercantilist backlash.

Problem, of course, is the initial language hurdle. On the other hand, that seems not to have been too much of a hurdle in the fringes of Costa del Sol.

Precisely.

CL: But as a general matter, if the Government provides a "Center" - say Tangiers Retirement City to seed with the basics and enough security to a private developer, you can get the first model off the ground. Dubai style with enough splash and size as to get attention to leverage for expansion.

If you marry up with the Islamists and the liberal reformers, I think it is more or less feasible.

I don't think one can do "exclusion" but one can find ways to have proper investment in security.

And largely speaking, Moroccans love old people. Doddering old foreigners are their favourite kind of tourist (being easy to dupe on the prices but also generally "cute" in a way that appeals to traditional Moroccan veneration of age).

One can also look at including "dialogue centers" for fuzzy east-west exchanges and the like.

I think they'd have to contribute capital in the form of real estate as the procedure to buy up larger tracts is just maddening.

Regardless, as a private venture it needs proper due diligence on the portability of benefits issue, and the like - although my general impression is most West EU nations already have high degree of portability, even ex-EU territories.

After that is defined, location. Tangiers area with its new rail and highways put in, and investment due to flow in due to the massive Tanga Med container port development (on line shortly), plus its historical charm could be perfect.

A core center could probably be done for 30 odd millions.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at April 13, 2006 02:33 PM

I just skimmed your article L., I'll try to read it more in details later when I have more time. Very good analysis anyway. Some random thoughts: Moroccan democratization pace is good enough as far as I'm concerned. I like Tel Quel a lot for example, but they sometimes look a bit unrealistic to me in the sense that they seem to think that Moroccans would act like British liberals if given the chance right now (and you can clearly see the French influence and contradictions in their thinking too).

Speaking of languages, importing aged europeans n all, languages follow the market. Morocco has yet to really industrialize and exploit its touristic/second residence/health outsourcing potential the way Tunisia did. And like in Tunisia, the moment they get it, even your semi-illiterate working in the sector will "speak" 5 languages. The only hurdle I can see here is... the popular image of Islam in Europe and the related political events, to which the industry is very sensitive. It clearly sets a limit to the development of this market. Maybe looking to the rich Gulf could be a nice source of revenue too.

Posted by: Shaheen at April 14, 2006 02:20 PM

Shaheen

Absolutely agree re Tel Quel.

Re the outsourcing, the current image problem is a serious hurdle, but when one looks at the tourism figures, they're okay. One clearly with Europe have something of a core of tourists that are not the piss-in-their-pants types like the Americans.

Build off of that, see what you can do.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at April 14, 2006 03:21 PM

Lounsbury,

u've a real good look about our situation.
Thanks for this post.
nice analysis.

Posted by: crucivore at April 16, 2006 04:41 PM

Ok I've had some spare minutes so I read your entry a bit more in details. I don't think a Richelieu might do it (one could argue there have been a few Richelieus in Arab countries). In fact, Juan Carlos didn't usher any transition in Spain, he merely folowed what a whole bunch of pro-democracy technocrats prepared in the last years of Franco. At the time of his death, the dynamic was there for them to take over. Hoping to enter the European club helped a lot too. With the exception of Lebanon maybe, I don't see this dynamic in any Arab country. Any advance in democratization has been a top down approach, and this is pretty much why they've all been a failure so far imho. There hasn't been a critical mass of individuals abiding by principled, winning rules, even in their own personal interest, to lead to significant change.

Back to Morocco and what we were discussing.

when one looks at the tourism figures, they're okay

Yes and no. It's been a while since I saw the stats, but unless it evolved a lot, Morocco is doing much less than Tunisia despite a greater potential. Last time I checked, Morocco was receiving 2 million tourists a year which is not bad in itself. But at the same time, Tunisia was receiving 4-5 millions, and investment in the tourism industry was - if memory serves - only 10% that of Tunisia's (granted, Tunisia is wildly overinvesting the mass tourism sector).

One clearly with Europe have something of a core of tourists that are not the piss-in-their-pants types like the Americans.

Well. Morocco has indeed a hard core of tourism which isn't the kind of easily scared cheap charter visitor, but the latter is an important chunck of Moroccan tourism. If you look at the stats, you'll see huge hits everytime there's an international crisis related to Muslims (1st Gulf war, 1998 Baghdad bombing, terrorist bombings, intifada 2 and 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.) - and yes, that includes Europeans unfortunately which make most visitors.

Now I see two possibilities. First, diversify the origin of visitors. Gulf visitors would make good candidates. They are rich, they spend a lot, and they wouldn't be easily scared. Second, find a way to disconnect Morocco's image from the Islamtroubles association, and build a critical mass of European residents and visitors - kind of like German and British retirees in southern Spain. It would take some effort I guess to achieve this, but the return might be greater than any other source of revenue for the kingdom.

A last point. I really really really agree with your comments about France and how Morocco is aping it. That's the case generally in all of the Maghreb. It's so pathetic I sometimes wish it was Britain which colonized North Africa, really. The French model predominates, and the Maghrebi elite with all its inferiority complexes doesn't even realize that it's aping a model whose only survival is probably due to France's inherited wealth.

Posted by: Shaheen at April 26, 2006 02:13 AM

vive le maroc et le roi mohamed 6 et son famille

Posted by: hassan at November 28, 2006 11:37 AM

And you were moved to post this months late for what reason? Mind you I like M6 mate, but 1940s style nationalist sloganeering ain't very interesting.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at November 29, 2006 08:45 AM

I still have yet to see a months-late post that contributes anything but comedy of the unintentional variety.

Posted by: Tom Scudder at November 30, 2006 02:20 PM

April 11, 2006

Morocco: Pimping Pleasure or Stalling Out? (Economist)

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