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February 27, 2006
Lebanon: A Fairy-Story
Let me tell you a story:
Once upon a time, there was a tiny kingdom where the people lived in freedom, prosperity and happiness. If they had any fault, it was that they were too busy enjoying their freedom to notice that the tyrant who ruled the neighboring kingdom hated them and was scheming to bring them down.
He schemed and built his armies, and one day he invaded, and his armies ground the nation down under the wheels of their fell war machines. The great nations of the world looked on, and made speeches about "sovereignty" and "freedom", and did nothing. And the tyrant's rule fell over the kingdom for a generation.
It seemed that nothing could be done, that the tyrant was too strong, and would rule forever. Some, full of greed or hatred for their fellow-citizens, went into the tyrant's service, and profited mightily thereby. Most simply tried to make the best of a bad situation, living as best they could under the tyrant's rule or moving away to other countries across the sea. But a few, a very few, kept the faith and resisted in every way they could. Many were killed, and many more were cast into the tyrant's prisons.
But one day (and in the end, it happened faster than any could have imagined) the revolutionaries won the day, and the tyrant's armies retreated in disarray. And so the kingdom could look to its own affairs again, and try to rebuild the freedom and prosperity that it had known before. And that's what we need to do today, because of course we live in that kingdom.
But there's another part ot the story. What happend to the traitors, the people who sold their fellow-countrymen out to the tyrant without a second thought? Were they hung from the lamp-posts by angry crowds? Were they cast into prison to rot? Were they driven across the sea, to skulk in exile forever vainly plotting the day of their return?
No, they are still here today, their power scarcely diminished. And they are looking to sell us out again, to betray the revolution; out of greed, or hate, or simple delusion. So we must be always on our guard, and if it comes down to it, if it is all that will guard against another betrayal of our nation, we must be ready to fight.
---
This is a story being told in Lebanon today: the same story, but with two diffrerent sets of names. It's this story that the young men who will fight the next civil war will have grown up on.
God help us all.
Posted by tomscud at February 27, 2006 12:02 PM
Filed Under: Levant
, Op-Ed
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Comments
dear tom,
how sure are you that there will BE a "next civil war"? and if you are, on what do you base your certainty?
--raf*
Posted by: raf* at February 27, 2006 03:00 PM
Human nature. Or something like it.
I'd like to be wrong. I really really don't want to have to move. It would be inconvenient.
Posted by: Tom Scudder at February 27, 2006 03:09 PM
dear tom,
Human nature. Or something like it.
that's IT??? oh ... puhleease. you base "the next civil war" on THAT?
that's ... laughable.
--raf*
Posted by: raf* at February 27, 2006 04:20 PM
Tom, you may not want to move, but at least you have that option - without needing to apply for political asylum, anyway.
Posted by: Eva Luna at February 27, 2006 06:21 PM
I do think sectarianism is becoming more institutionalized as time goes on. Having said that, I don't believe a civil war is likely anytime soon (esp while memories of the previous one are still relatively fresh). Maybe if one side suddenly felt they had the upper hand (or if another became worried about the same thing), but even then...
Of course this post is somewhat cryptic and I'm not entirely sure what is being said here.
Posted by: eerie at February 27, 2006 07:14 PM
I don't have enough on-scene experience to predict the liklihood of civil war but all informed appearances and persons I know of on many sides concur, intentionally or not, in yielding a picture of a country that has simply been restored back to its old sectarian-tribalisms, like Yugoslavia without Tito.
Tom's description sounds like current Maronite-speak with Syria as tyrant or Hizbollah-speak with Israel as tyrant.
Posted by: matthew hogan at February 27, 2006 08:35 PM
Well, yes. That's what I got out of it. Not exactly a hard interpretation.
The question is, what's happening inside Lebanon that would inspire this? Are the divisions being sown since Hariri getting deeper and deeper?
Posted by: pantom at February 27, 2006 09:10 PM
The question is, what's happening inside Lebanon that would inspire this? Are the divisions being sown since Hariri getting deeper and deeper?
That's what I'm wondering. I haven't seen any indications lately.
Posted by: eerie at February 27, 2006 09:14 PM
"The question is, what's happening inside Lebanon that would inspire this? "
Wouldn't it be fair to presume this is simply the communal default position (of each group) and they are being merely repeated with a more open and renewed [literal] vengeance now that all foreigners are, at least overtly, out.
In other words, it requires no prompting or special provocation, it is the habitual state simply more openly expressed now that people see opportunity to act on it post-Syrian (and a few years back, Israeli) withdrawal.
Posted by: matthew hogan at February 27, 2006 09:55 PM
Also, I think there is reason, and personally from other than mere speculation, to believe that Maronite organizations feel confident that the USA is primed or primable to follow and enforce their party line, and the party line is like the post; among many now is currently a state of mind wherein Aoun is now considered a dismissable moderate or sellout.
Posted by: matthew hogan at February 27, 2006 10:00 PM
No particular triggering-event for this rant. Just wanted to get it out there.
I probably should have mentioned that I really DON'T think the "next civil war" is going to be SOON. Too damn many people with visceral memories of the last one, in positions where they can do something about it. More like on a one-generation kind of timescale.
And as someone else told me, "there's a lot of water that will run under that bridge in fifteen years".
Posted by: Tom Scudder at February 28, 2006 12:07 AM
dear tom,
i'm not a political "scientist" - i don't make predictions about the future.
fifteen years is a ... LONG time.
let's talk in 14 1/2 about this and see what we think.
--raf*
Posted by: raf* at February 28, 2006 05:58 AM
Raf, I hear you.
But this IS the dynamic that's being set up, right now. And if it can't be changed (and changing it will be hard, very hard. You can't just hold a "meeting of national reconciliation" and invite a half-dozen photographers), well.
Posted by: Tom Scudder at February 28, 2006 06:15 AM
When I read the story, I assumed it meant 5-10 years from now. Obviously it's not likely soon, and I hope not in 10 years either. But the undercurrents that let a civil war boil over can take a long time to develop, especially if it's going to do so along sheer sectarian lines. Before Hariri's death, I wasn't sure if the nation was really learning, just trying to forget the war. Maybe that can change now, while trying to avoid the inherent volatility of the situation running things off course.
Posted by: zurn at February 28, 2006 09:06 PM
