First, of course, there is the idiocy of the political angle that Totten rather typically laps up like the gullible cretinous poodle that he is. Rather obviously the Zaim ('Leaders' - effectively "Big Men") system based on a corrupt and sectarian based partition of power giving Sunni and Christian (esp. Maronites, who esp. love the system) Arabs excess power over their numbers, at the expense of Shiites etc is hardly a "model" for any political system - except if one is a hair's breadth away from civil war. So, in that case, maybe a model for Iraq, but certainly not the rest of the bloody region.

However, Beirut residents, living in their weird little corrupt bubble world (long subsidised in part via the same corrupt Syrian axis they now piss and moan about like the corrupt little hypocritical cynics that they are) and their gullible cretinous western hangers-on like to cling to the fantasy that Beirut is Lebanon and that Lebanon works. (Well, it does, via the Zaim spoils system. Rather crappy political system, but better than civil war to be sure) Anyone who thought the Leb Intefada was anything but sectarian politics never knew Leb Land or was part of the delusional little Beiruti spoiled brat clique.

But this is not my main objection to the Leb Land as a model idiocy.

My main objection is that Leb Land is an economic basket case running on the fumes of the Hariri-run debt binge. As IMF notes, government debt is " ($37 billion or 167 percent of GDP) ... on an upward path and, in the absence of fiscal adjustment, it would snowball, reaching 210 percent of GDP by 2010" - let's just say 167 percent of GDP ain't encouraging. Even worse given an economy that is a mirage, a bubble built on corruption and debt binging. The country is effectively two economies... no make that three. There is the real domestic economy for most of the country, which is primitive and low productivity. Then there is the Syrian mafia economy. Smuggling, corruption and other things Lebs are very good at. It's not a bad deal for Leb Land, except for the whole rule of law thing - terrible deal for Syria, but what the fuck, if the Syrians don't overthrow the Baath-Asaad clique.... Then there is the debt driven rebuilding and related monetary shuffling bubble.

The whole bloody thing is a fucking house of cards, in part sustained by the Syrian-Saudi corruption axis (quite profitable really, despite some hypocritical Leb whinging on, since the Beirutis still can't seem to understand they can't have their cake and eat it too - well maybe they have understood, but figure they can pimp the line to gullible cretins like Totten as means of accessing more gullible foreign capital - come to think of it, in my long experience with Lebs, this is probably the angle). This is not an socio-economic model for anybody (unless one desperately wants to engage in a hare-brained damn the consequences debt-fueled economic system... well come to think of it, most Americans fall into that category. Perhaps that explains Totten's idiocy.).

But lest you think I am being too harsh, let me quote from this fine International Crisis Group note that pratike helpfully cites to, enabling the lazy such as myself to merely support my rant.

To quote from Middle East Report N°48 – 5 December 2005 on the economic policy front:

LEBANON: MANAGING THE GATHERING STORM

(omitting citations: my editorial comments in square brackets)

"Lebanon lives well beyond its means. Its sovereign debt tops $40 billion (nearly twice its GDP) government spending exceeds revenue economic growth has been stagnant since 2000; and [rampant, senselss] government borrowing puts pressure on interest rates. Combined with burdensome red tape, this is so discouraging that despite a relatively liberal and open economy, investment rates are lower than in most economies of the region.

My, what a brilliant fucking model!!!

Why, were I an Arab, I might run right out and say "Yes, let's run up debt of well nigh double GDP so we can make our capital city pretty again and fill it up with dollarised shopping malls and the like so that idiot gullible non-Arabic speaking cretins residing there will be fooled into thinking we have an economy and thus encourage more foreign aid and the like for our corrupt little selves. Oh yes, and never mind investing in the rest of the fucking country." Brilliant idea. Absolutely fucking brilliant.

Moving right along to some juicy data:

Exports of goods and services account for barely 13 per cent of GDP, while the traditional balance of payments surplus (largely due to remittances from the diaspora) shows signs of strain since 2003. There is 20 to 30 per cent unemployment while thousands of well-trained youths emigrate each year in search of jobs. The industrial and agricultural sectors are stagnant, a consequence of high production costs and shrinking comparative advantages. Added to this are significant income disparities, on both a per capita and regional basis.

In short, an economic basket case - and let's not forget this is all driven by the "model system" that gullible semi-literate cretin Totten thinks should attract all Arabs.

At least this keep Dubai well-supplied with skilled Lebanese managerial and technical classes, as well as key financial people for the ever more sophisticated money laundering operations. Lebs are very good at this. (ceteris paribus, allowing for the odd incompetent Leb financial crook - normally the Pakis are the incompetent money launderers.)

Because of course, having a night life and looser morals in the government subsidised capital are obviously signs of broad socio-economic and political progress. At least to shallow semi-literate cretins.

Skipping over the required but futile commentary on the Paris II accords. (Clever Lebs agree to all, and then never implement. It's a good tactic, IMF et al need only have some smooth talking technocrats put in front of them to be convinced "progress" is being made)

Rampant corruption, from high-level malfeasance to petty graft, has deterred foreign investment, deepened the national debt, undermined public confidence, and encouraged capita flight. On Transparency International’s perceptions of corruption index, Lebanon is 97th, behind Syria, Egypt and China.

Woo hoo! More corrupt than Syria and Egypt!!! That takes some doing.

Well, in fact, I don't like the Transparency index as its too subjective and I have the sense it sometimes captures heightened social condemnation of corruption as "increased corruption." Serious measurement problem.

I further think that Syria is in fact much more corrupt (but in a more primative and unimaginative manner) than either Egypt or Leb Land. I'd even say I think Egypt is more corrupt. However, the Lebs typically have panache, which in my book counts for a lot.

Of course the pious Beiruti elite will pretend it's all the Evil Syrians (tm) doing, this corruption. Never mind the cunning Lebs regularly fleece the poor backwoods Syrians (well at least so the Syrians say, in my experience. I like to credit such baseless slurs because they amuse me)

Past anti-corruption campaigns (such as Prime Minster Salim al-Hoss’ in 1998-2000) have been ineffective, politically motivated (in that instance, by an attempt to undermine Hariri and his patronage network after he was pushed out of his premiership) typically involving dismissal and prosecution but not conviction of senior public servants and leaving administrative structures intact. Most importantly, they failed to address the political roots of corruption.

Actually the indicting and prosecution but never actually finishing corruption cases is a model adopted throughout the region for conveying the image of progress without unduly upsetting relations.

Good to the Lebs for developing this key fleece the foreigners operation. (Okay, perhaps it was developed independently, but no matter, I like to give Leb Land credit on these issues)

If the new government is to pursue a genuine anticorruption policy, it should consider, in addition to enforcing strictly existing measures: ensuring the independence of state watchdog institutions, including the Central Inspection Board, the Court of Audit and the Civil Service Board, empowering them to take punitive action and publish their findings; reviewing and implementing procurement and conflict-of-interest legislation.

You know, the idea of these things is so ... well, unrealstic as to be fantastical. Actually makes me smile reading them.

Aoun has proposed inviting international auditors, an interesting idea but not a substitute for local mechanisms, including new public procurement regulations. Clear and enforceable conflict-of-interest guidelines are needed, at a minimum compelling senior officials to disclose their assets and examining and learning from successes under comparable conditions elsewhere.

Ah, international auditors. Preferably ones who speak no Arabic and can't easily get into certain kinds of documentation. They're the best kind.

Well, you get the point.