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December 20, 2005
The Semi-Bogus Dilemma of Democracy versus Mosque & State
[A long and boring essay, written with all the arrogance I could muster out of being male, foreign to the region, and American.]
A "Semi-bogus" dilemma, I call it, because the issue of what type of rulers might emerge from real democratic processes in MENA is a fair question. My real target for discussion is more the Western progressive, since those are my own people (though I am more right wing “libertarian” than progressive). I speak about their fears and those of many MENA-ites as well, who express endless reservations about MENA democracy. They do so because democratic empowerment has a real risk of empowering retrograde Islamist/traditionalist forces, e.g. the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. To give away the ending, my message below is basically: shut up and get over it.
My more complex message directed towards MENA-ite advocates of liberal or social democracy is derived from reflections upon the insightful work of Mona Eltahawy regarding Egypt's last election rounds, and the harassment of the Coptic minority. This ugly American’s (meaning me) more complex message to MENA-ites is: don't shut up, but do get over it. . . for now, at least. The following is a look at why.
The Debate: The Harsh Reality and Hope
At the core of the debate is the simple question: what if democracy results in the rise to power of groups that one doesn't like, and for good reason, groups and individuals who might abuse minorities, free speech, and women? And who might even threaten my freedom personally?
The answer is cold water in the face: welcome to democracy. It means accepting, though not validating their goals, such public choices if honestly counted.
To a certain extent, however, there is fundamental long-term good news despite that downside. Democracy's requirement of accepting the temporary empowerment of disliked and frightening positions and people because the majority has so ruled does have a deeper subversive and liberating secondary effect for the political society. This extra good side helps undercut the tyranny of the majority, if democracy holds. It even liberalizes the political participants. I shall get to this vital beneficent secondary effect below in the Good News section. But first let me show that to expect democracy to deliver the ideal just society flies in the face of experiences where democracy has been successful.
Democracy Sucks Too
Today, for example, in the American democracy (and more or less it is one, relatively speaking, let's not get into that argument), I can find positions that I, or others, find reasonably and massively outrageous to human rights, freedom, and dignity today, or at least within living memory. (I can do this without even addressing the grand American race question). Here’s a short list ranging from daily serious annoyances to mass policies:
1) if I were pro-life, I'd feel that mass murder happens every day in my democracy
2) if I were pro-choice, I would feel that there are too many limits on the reproductive choice, the fundamental life decision of millions, and I certainly would have felt that way about my democracy 35 years ago
3) if I believed in controlling my own process of dying, my final moments on earth, I am denied by my democracy key pain medication and effective palliative drugs like marijuana for certain diseases
4) if I believe in choosing my own pleasures, I would be jailed for smoking a joint. Thousands are.
5) if I believe I should go into a public place and smoke a tobacco cigarette, I am denied it by my democracy
6) OTOH, if I want to go into a place and be protected from second-hand smoke, I might have no choice
7) if I believe basic health care is a fundamental right, it is certainly not provided for all or many by my democracy
8) if I believe otherwise that government should stay out of health care, I nonetheless have to pay for Medicare, Medicaid, and jump through expensive hoops to get vital prescription medicine by the will of my democracy
9) if I were gay, I can't get a legally sanctioned marriage, and ten years ago, legal prosecution for my sexual behavior would be constitutional and enforced; discrimination is still legal in most places according to the will of my democracy
10) if I were a citizen suspected of direct terrorism, I might not get basic due process, but be summarily detained
11) if I like to play cards for cash as multiple thousands do, in most places I could have my house raided by the police
12) if I volunteered for national service, I may have to kill and die in a place I don't even think we should be
A little older in time on religion -- try being a Mormon in 1830s or so America, they'd beg to be a Copt in Egypt today.
And in the recent and not too distant American past (and again I am not even touching on racism), within some living memory, the majority had elected the Muslim Brotherhood apparently: women could not vote until a majority of men said so in about 1920, alcohol could not be bought or sold, gambling was illegal almost everywhere (still is in most places); America between 1900-1930, looking at different times, probably had less legal gambling, women voting, and alcohol legally sold than certain parts of Cairo today. Abortion was thoroughly illegal (take your pick: "thank God", or "oh my God").
Such is democracy and its discontents. Yet, democracy continued to advance and attempts by outside parties to impose such substantive rights on America would have been resisted and resented.
If the choice is between no democracy, or some progress while being made to wear a hijab in public and not too publicly swigging a bourbon: it may be wise to wear a hijab and do your drinking at home. Use the system to object. If the choice is between no democracy or fewer divorce rights and fewer abuse-protections for women and minorities, take the democracy, then fight to preserve the system, but work to change the laws. Democracy is hard and boring work; it’s a relationship, not a revolution, it is more like dating or marriage than the liberating thrill of copulation.
The Evil Paradigm
I think in recent times, the awful paradigm of rejecting democracy was Algeria. I do believe many Western feminists practically ululated like Bedouin women celebrating a rescue when the military of a decaying corrupt regime about a decade and a half ago ousted the properly elected, and corruption-challenging, Islamic Salvation Front from properly taking their seats as a government. As a result, a grisly murderous civil war followed; meanwhile, despite the coup, violent and misogynist Islamist movements have not been stopped in MENA (from al-Qaeda to the Ikhwan). Meanwhile, a Sunni Islamist movement taking shape in relatively pluralist somewhat Francophile North Africa might have been better than one nurtured in the basements of Saudi Arabia and the caves of Afghanistan. They also might have learned the humility and compromise that comes with power and led others to it.
In Algeria, villagers all over were hacked to death by roving gangs, but at least, feminists can console themselves, no one was forced into the horror of wearing long skirts, to cover their hair, or to unjustly lose child custody and inheritance disputes, which, by the way I am sure never happened, oh no never, during the military regime. Nor did censorship or torture, oh no, no no.
(Right now local government and party Turkish nationalists are legally and physically assaulting a writer there for telling the truth about the Armenian genocide; the somewhat Islamist-lilke government seems indifferent to enforcing the censorship.)
When Western liberals and governments went mum over the outrageous hijacking of democracy in Algeria (I don’t know the details but I suspect the French government actively helped encourage the anti-democratic coup), democracy was helpfully discredited or discarded to some degree among those who may have been tempted to combine an Islamist polity and democracy.
The Good News
But let’s turn to the good side, why is the mere fact of democracy actually worthwhile, even with an Islamist or oppressive face? It is, because democracy itself, when adhered to, slowly and painfully nurtures a wondrous revolutionary idea, namely, the conscious or subconscious concession that your neighbor and your fellow citizen across the social divide is a meaningful valuable entity because his or her voice counts. Democracy is a procedure, and procedure can be more important than substantive rights, as any student of the very substantively liberal Soviet Constitution might tell you. Or as any Guantanamo inmate may know.
Democracy, the mere process of it, with good results or bad, is actually not the ability and willingness to vote; it is more beautifully subversive: it means the ability and willingness to respect OTHERS' votes. The implication of democracy is that your neighbor and other fellow citizens, as well as you, COUNT. Gradually that means that the 70 year old patriarch is more likely to come to realize and accept before he is 80 -- even while he is voting for honor killings to be protected -- that his 10 voting daughters and granddaughters outweigh him in political life and power. One person, one vote -- the mere process of it -- both needs and nurtures this idea: one person equals one significant meaningful entity with rights. This may take a while to internalize, but it does, if democracy the process is nurtured, come what may.
Liberal or progressives in MENA cannot and ought not stop denouncing the oppressive policies of various reactionary movements. More importantly they must resist, as pro-democracy forces, any anti-democratic steps – closing down of elections, open debate on candidates and issues, by any party. But neither can they say that democracy should wait until their fellow citizens -- the traditionalist or theocractic peasants, proletarians, organizations and intellectuals -- wise up, die, or dissappear.
And that is unrealistic. And possibly as dangerously corrupt and totalitarian as the existing systems. The simpler practical message is also this: pick your battles. When the vise of state and mosque are closing in, aim straight for democracy, come what may. That is the path of multiple benefits and in life temporary setbacks are inevitable.
Resisting Hypocrisy and the Smackdown Impulse
Democracy, consistently adhered to, is only a start to a liberal society but it is a necessary one. (Attention lefties: even prior to that, the best start is property rights, along with freedom of commerce from corruption, official nepotism and trade barriers, but that’s another subject for another day). The doubts about the merits of democracy because of the risks constitute, at worst, shameless and discernible hypocrisy, ridiculable by political adversaries, by the corrupt state, and by all enemies of democracy and progress. Adhering to democracy means that progressives and liberals have to practice what they preach -- democracy means respect for others' choices and their participation. Yes, the public choices of those who frighten you with their bigotry and intolerance. Democracy means, at its core, inhibiting the urge to do a smackdown.
The Challenges
The hard work of democracy, as noted, will not be grand visions but tedious electioneering and vote-counting vigilance. It will involve defending freedom of expression for jerks and promoting universal literacy and basic education. (The defending of disagreeable views is easier than it looks: I am not sure, for example, that Coptic Christianity in Egypt has views compatible with feminism (abortion, anyone?) but that oughtn't stop one from standing up against harassment or discrimination, and in favor of their full democratic participation.)
Creating respect for democracy is hard enough for one movement and it cannot spread itself too thin. Frankly, the brutal fact is that societies of MENA are not all that keen on democracy, and that's the real reason it's not happening quickly. More traditional in character, the people tend to see proper social values as dictated from above, mediated by tradition and religion, and validated by fate and power; this means that there is little of the experimental skepticism that leads one to concede power and validity to one’s set of neighbors who don’t share one's faith, one's opinions, one's tribe, or admire one's charismatic leader. Winner should take all, in that thinking, in fact, the loser, if it is “our” side, should still be the winner (hence coups, etc.).
Just pushing the democratic outlook into permanent life is the challenge of a generation. Democracy, the mere process of it, ultimately yields more than one benefit: it removes or reduces the old restrictions of corruption and tyranny, while quietly informing all members of society that every individual matters (women, other sects, other classes), that they have a valid existence and say. This view can not be imposed (sorry Mr President of USA) and must come from within the region.
The challenge for the MENA liberal is to show his/her traditional fellow citizen that democracy means that that fellow citizen's own values -- yes even the bad ones (misogyny, sectarian supremacism) -- will have a fighting chance to win in a non-corrupt playing field, exactly the opposite of what happened in Algeria. The progressive must show that the democracy game yields better prosperity and values; in the course of that, the other person quietly imbibes the notion, implicit in a functional democracy, that his or her fellows do matter. (Again, the economic libertarian in me stresses that property rights and free commerce may even be more important.)
A Lower Downside
To be a democrat in an unfriendly social and political environment means to fight one war at a time. That one should be for popular participation, whatever the choice that results.
As to the downside: how much really is to lose when risking the success of the reactionaries? It's not like tyranny and gangsterism are not pervasive today . . . or misogyny, or corruption, or censorship or sadism. Forget MENA, that's just New Orleans! More seriously, a secular dictatorship can do all the same as the Islamists when necessary to accomodate interest groups, but without democracy, there is no recourse.
[Final note: In the West, the negative counterexample to unfettered democracy is always the fact that the Nazis were democratically elected in Germany. That's not quite true, actually. They never got the majority. They were a plurality able to pull a coup because anti-democratic violence in the form of their own gangs and communist-led street battles during a time of economic ruin led to a burning of the parliament (the Nazis didn’t fake it, a real communist did it) and they murdered democracy with the declaration of emergency law. Fighting to preserve orderly democracy remains the constant challenge in any example.]
So denounce the evils of retrograde tyranny but keep the eyes on the prize, which is participatory democracy. Come rain or shine, fresh air is good.
Posted by Matthew Hogan at December 20, 2005 09:53 PM
Filed Under: Islamism
, MENA Region General
, Op-Ed
, Political Development
, Society & Culture
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Comments
Good work mate, good work. [edited slightly to correct some errors, add a thought or two]
Realistic acheivable goals, not messianic transformational rubbish.
Or don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Had the idiots with the CPA understood half of this, they might have done a less fucked up job. Stupid "women's empowerment" seminars and other claptrap when they did not even control the roads.
Bloody feel good nonsense for the Lefty dreamers and Right Bolshy transformationalists.
For anyone who wants to see real change, you have to have realistic benchmarks (and you rightly point out the Lefty human rights twits and Right Bolshy transformationalists forget that many of their benchmarks are new to the West, never mind the restof the World). An irony I may add I find among the Right Bolshies and among the Righ Islamophobes generally is they often select standards that they'd never go for in their own society.
Ah yes, I forgot to add that for strange reason I have developed a desire to try to sleep with Mona. This despite my Egyptophobia.
Posted by: The Lounsbury at December 20, 2005 11:56 PM
You know, I was just going to ask Matthew if he wanted to have sex with Mona. How many times has he cited her in the last three weeks?
Men are amusingly transparent at times.
Posted by: eerie at December 21, 2005 12:15 AM
Hmm, she's got a big nose...
So reassuring I find, following a long and profound post, to cut to the chase. Precis of reaction to date, 'Good job, I probably would sleep with Mona.. Do YOU want to sleep with Mona?...Hmm she's fat'
Posted by: Meph at December 21, 2005 04:53 AM
dear m,
the question is "what is your goal?" is "democracy" a value in itself? or is it part of a larger ideal?
i personally am all for participatory democracy, and thus agree with your post on that account, but i am also weary of a "dictatorship of the majority".
you seem to stand for cultural relativism - as you wrote "democracy means that that fellow citizen's own values -- yes even the bad ones (misogyny, sectarian supremacism) -- will have a fighting chance to win in a non-corrupt playing field". i don't. i think that participatory democracy is only desirable if it also comes with protection of civil (incl. minority) rights.
and i don't want to have sex with mona.
--raf*
Posted by: raf* at December 21, 2005 07:36 AM
#1: The Mona Issue
" I was just going to ask Matthew if he wanted to have sex with Mona. How many times has he cited her in the last three weeks?"
Oh, how rude! I am shocked, shocked I tell you that there could be a libido going on in this establishment. Actually, textual intercourse sounds proper and respectable.
And at least (cough, cough) I have posted something in the last three weeks (cough, cough, ahem, ahem). I am looking at some people here.:-)
However, not even for sex with TWO lovely journalists AND a midget would I write a post this long (plus I have a wife who wields a very sharp knife to consider), you see: I have very very high, almost religious, standards of indolence and inertia, and especially I would not write such a piece that's rather intermittently critical of the alleged target of my libido.
Alas, this column comes from the heart and not the romantic heart.
(Mona does have a nice picture and nose I must say in her defense, you rude people. As do Eerie and Eva by the way. And the L, if he is indeed Pierce Brosnan, but I am not into the wild side.)
"Men are amusingly transparent at times."
"At times"!? Please, we are constantly obvious.
#2: The Serious Issues
On more serious things: I am not a cultural relativist -- just a cultural realist. Being a "libertarian" I think alot of things are outrages even when done by relatively liberal democracies. But I am not going to get drug legalization, the end of eminent domain, legalized gambling and prostitution, the end of tariffs and protectionism, the end of excessive taxation, the separation of health care from state overnight or for a long while, if at all. In fact, many or most of you would vote against my efforts, you fiends! But that's democracy, accepting that, at least as a practical reality.
Yes, democracies should be liberal, (ie protect individual freedom, I value that more than democracy actually, and liberal democracies allow undemocratic judiciaries to protect the liberal values). But you need to get the prevailing social contract to approve that whole system. Just getting that process going is enough of a start where societies haven't imbibed the core values. It isn't even easy where those values are widely accepted.
If you can get it all at the start, dropped from the messiah and heaven, or accepted by a pre-developed educated populace, do it. But it's not likely right away (that doesnt mean give up). At least, if one sticks to a strategically wise and morally superior point like democracy (and that's not relativistic), and holds to it, the social system will start to imbibe specifically liberal and pluralist values, a point I made down in the essay well after most readers dozed off.
Right or wrong, the absolute values of political freedom (and are they the most absolute, and do we agree on all? Another philosphical question for another day (and another Mona link:-)), but let's stipulate for now they are the top political values as I really do think so) -- those absolute values require a social contract to make it work. Democracy, and I would add, probably more importantly, economic freedom are the steps to get there.
In a war against deeply-entrenched tyranny, one doesn't get a victory up front.
Posted by: matthew hogan at December 21, 2005 09:43 AM
PS -- "I was just going to ask Matthew if he wanted to have sex with Mona."
A little outrage: Mona works in Egypt where human rights abuses are prevalent, especially now and for critics. Do you think I am so low as to want to subject her to additional unspeakable horrors?
As an attractive human rights activist said to me a few years ago when I suggested a liaison: "No, not even if it would help stop waterboarding."
Posted by: matthew hogan at December 21, 2005 09:59 AM
And at least (cough, cough) I have posted something in the last three weeks (cough, cough, ahem, ahem). I am looking at some people here.:-)
Frantically checked the date of my last posting and am now resting on my laurels. (Cough, cough) think he was referring to someone else, but tried to mollify said person by saying she(or he)had a lovely nose.
On a serious note, I do agree with the statement that 'meanwhile, a Sunni Islamist movement taking shape in relatively pluralist somewhat Francophile North Africa might have been better than one nurtured in the basements of Saudi Arabia and the caves of Afghanistan. They also might have learned the humility and compromise that comes with power and led others to it.'
Although Sudan's loosely Islamist government was initiated by a military coup and employed Islam for propaganda purposes rather than due to ideological conviction, the Islamic nature and hardline stance has been tempered over the years by the realities of power and the temptation of unsanctioned economy hard currency.
Posted by: Meph at December 21, 2005 10:36 AM
For all the attempts to mollify holders of noses, sheesh, don't you people think site maintenance counts for anything?
Posted by: Eva Luna at December 21, 2005 11:16 AM
"...don't you people think site maintenance counts for anything?"
Mere housework? In the post-feminist era? Come on.-- M. "Oink" H.
Posted by: matthew hogan at December 21, 2005 02:34 PM
And at least (cough, cough) I have posted something in the last three weeks (cough, cough, ahem, ahem). I am looking at some people here.:-)
Fine! Fine! Tonight.
Posted by: eerie at December 21, 2005 02:56 PM
Mere housework? In the post-feminist era?
In my personal version of feminism, it's all about choice - whether that choice is "mere" housework or particle physics, the important part is that the woman chooses it for herself.
(Besides, some of us actually like "women's work" of various sorts - I happen to be a pretty good cook, dammit.)
Posted by: Eva Luna at December 21, 2005 05:18 PM
I agree. In order for democracy to flourish, people are going to have to (potentially) make their own mistakes. And who knows, perhaps an Islamist government that everyone thinks will be a bad idea would actually be tempered by the process of democracy, and the concerns of re-election. Of course, new democracies are always rife with abuse and problems, as are even old ones.
You could argue that there's a trade-off with civil rights due to cultural differences, but there are trade-offs in civil rights in a dictatorship as well, obviously. In a militant dictatorship there is the problem that there is no recourse to correct those problems, save violent opposition. A democratic process would at least allow the people to change things according to how they actually want it, over time. In a hypothetically democratic MENA, if several Islamist governments are elected, and they turn out badly, then a democratic process will eventually allow the voters to realize that, and move for change. Without that empowerment of the people, however, if someone tries to make that judgement call for them, the process fails, and nothing changes.
Of course, there are some serious problems related to the limitations of democratic discourse. How well do democracies do in countries that do not have a homogenous culutural make-up? How much actual debate and change can there be if ethnic and religious divisions dominate poltics, divisions that hardly see any defectors and converts? If people stick to tribal/religious/ethnic loyalties, and see those as the only real issue in representation, then we basically get a deadlock, an unchanging government, only affected by birth and death rates. What has to happen is people in countries with such divisions is the people have to let go of those loyalties to a certain extent and try to consider what is best for the entire country as a whole, what can benefit everyone, so that the issues become more universal, and more easily accomodated by a democratic system. In other words, general social issues. It doesn't mean abandoning your culture or beliefs, but instead being secure about them (in so much as they don't violate civil rights, which would become an issue), and starting to discuss the more general and useful responsibilities of a good government. That, however, is not going to be easy, and will take time if it does happen.
Posted by: zurn at December 21, 2005 06:05 PM
I am too whacked to give a proper response, to the intellectual arguments, but in re sleeping with Mona, her picture is enticing enough to merit the reflexion.
Second, for my poor rejected collegue. Well, sorry mate. Perhaps if you had gone for the expat scum angle. Everyone seems to find that attractive. Well, almost. Or maybe women travelling are more sporting.
Third, re that pic, let me note for the record that our dear editor in chief put that up to amuse herself. I actually did not notice for weeks (or months perhaps), but I also found it amusing, su did not ask for it to come down. Should have a disclaimer of course. My ego is quite large, but using Pierce as a stand in is not something I would do.
In any case, select people here know what I really look like, having seen me in my natural habitat (being expat scum), so can opine or not. I care not.
Meanwhile, these new narcotics are really quite fun. I like the new dosage. I think, however, this docy I have to edit for the Titanic is going to come out utterly fucked. Ah fuck em.
Also, gotta ring Boston. Have to see what angle to take on the Boston Boys, maybe the opp is live.
ah yes, democracy sucks eggs. Opportunity counts.
I should come up with a pithy Lounsbury Doctrine on that.
Posted by: The Lounsbury at December 21, 2005 07:56 PM
OK, not to sound too hostile, but what really differs your position from that of Reuel Marc Gerecht or the neocon transformationalists of the AEI swamps? Other than you don't want the U.S. to go about invading people?
Let us not forget that Iran is far more democratic than Egypt, but Iran also kills a lot more people than Egypt does and is far more aggressive towards its neighbors and in the region as a whole. It's also much more socially conservative.
Let us also not forget that just electing whomever does not necessarily secure democracy but rather can end it rather definitively. "One man, one vote, one time" and all that.
As for Mona: if I wasn't just married, I'd definitely hit that.
Posted by: Tequila at December 22, 2005 11:02 AM
Tequila
The fact that Iran is more socially conservative than Egypt says nothing about its validity as a democracy.
Also, the elections in Algeria for example and the fact that they were overturned did not signal a death knell as upon closer examination (due to the type of balloting involved) the results were not comprehensively representative.
Lastly, if you had been married for some time (as opposed to just), would you then 'hit' that?
Matthew
I attribute your failure with said human rights activist to the fact that you did not use such terms as 'hit' as it indicates a much more sensitive, mature and non chauvinist attitude to women in general. All of which females find very attractive.
Posted by: Meph at December 22, 2005 11:17 AM
"OK, not to sound too hostile, but what really differs your position from that of Reuel Marc Gerecht or the neocon transformationalists of the AEI swamps? Other than you don't want the U.S. to go about invading people?"
It doesnt sound hostile, it's a fair question to, um, hit on.
For me, the fact that the US doesn't do it is enough of a distinction to be the whole thing, as that is my home turf.
But the broader distinction is this: they tend to believe that the Middle East is ripe for an instant liberal democratic revolution, like Eastern Europe is alleged to have been, and that that change only needs a spark and a push, this being based on a sort of belief in universal and identical freedom aspirations.
I think there is no critical mass out there for that in MENA, though I do think that most MENA people would probably prefer democracy and a greater measure of liberalism to the extent it required little sustained effort or sacrifice or watching one's despised neighbor prosper in a better system.
Finally, I am more indifferent than not, unlike the neocons who think it is necessary for ultimate virtue and US national security, to whether the Mideast transforms or not in general, with the sincere proviso that as a generally nice person, at least some of the time, who knows people from the region, has been there and likes it and them, I would like to see a better life, and fairer, decent political and social values for all.
Emergent democracies can be more warlike than old dictatorships, but I consciously avoided the foreign affairs risks for another day.
In the end, I think political communities should govern themselves and not be at the mercy of predators and idealists, each of whom tend to devour, but with different levels of awareness of it.
Posted by: matthew hogan at December 22, 2005 12:58 PM
Meph -
With regards to the hittability of Ms. Eltawahy and the length of time married, I'd have to say that was a regrettable entry on my part --- having a newlywed's naive faith, I will say the length of the marriage would NOT matter.
On the Iran vs. Egypt comparison, I did not imply that Iran's social conservatism had anything to do with its democratic legitimacy pro or con. Simply that the democratic process does not necessarily subvert beautifully as Mr. Hogan put it --- increased democracy in Iran with the Revolution led to far greater social constriction and less recognition of the inherent rights of the individual, especially in terms of freedom of thought, expression, etc. most especially for women. An elected Ikhwan government in Egypt would, I posit, lead Egypt down a similar path.
Matthew, I'd agree with you that unfortunately there is no critical mass and that a variety of cultural, economic, and historic factors conspire to ensure that there will not be one for decades to come.
In the end I sort-of agree with your ultimate prescriptions --- that the U.S. and liberals must insist on democratic processes, and try to ensure their spread, etc. I just sincerely don't think it will make all that much of a difference in the long run, and even if a sort of democracy did arrive (as it has in Iran) it would almost certainly be harmful to the U.S., liberalism in the region, and the rights of women.
Posted by: Tequil at December 22, 2005 06:27 PM
Um, you guys know that Mona probably reads this, right?
Posted by: aardvark at December 23, 2005 09:21 AM
No, never crossed my mind, but it adds to my underlying charm.
Posted by: The Lounsbury at December 23, 2005 10:08 AM
Tequil, I have to say I'm baffled by your assertion that democracy would not make a difference in the long run. Quite the opposite, democracy would not make much of a difference in the short run, as all the current problems (eg. women's rights and hating the US) would be going strong and in fact probably be issues to defend at the ballot. If a true, proper democracy were allowed to eventually develop after a long tortuous process (just look at the blatant corruption in US history, as compared to the paltry corruption of the present), then a moderate political movement will be able to emerge after a decade or three that, finally uncoerced or suppressed by a partial "democratic process" as in Iran, would have its voice heard. (They'd have to allow anyone to run, not just council-approved non-reformists.) So really, the long is where we can see potential rewards, it's the short run that's scary.
And yes, a democracy may be short-lived if a coup overturns the results, or if the elected leader is declared dictator. I don't see that as a failure of democracy, though, but rather a failure to defend democracy. But for any country for which a transition to democracy was not a foregone conclusion, a violent transition is the norm.
Posted by: zurn at December 23, 2005 12:23 PM

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