Mideast Course At the Mercy of Local Factions

"The theme in this region is the reality of a foreign military power that comes in with great determination and overwhelming force, defeats people, subjugates a nation and then gets completely lost in the local maelstrom of interests and the irresistible force of indigenous identity -- religious, ethnic, sectarian, national. People act in a maniacal way when they assert these identities, which includes nurturing and protecting them," said Rami Khouri, a U.S.-educated Arab analyst and editor of Lebanon's Daily Star newspaper.

"Every single foreign power that has been in this region since Alexander the Great -- through the Romans, Greeks, Ottomans, British, French and now Americans -- has learned the same lesson," Khouri said.

Clearly, the US seeks to project an image of non-interference throughout the constitutional process, to give Iraqi actors greater legitimacy (particularly in the eyes of Iraqi citizens). Unfortunately, this has resulted in Sunni marginalization at the hands of Shi’a and Kurdish factions. All groups are demonstrating a strong tendency to pursue factional interests, rather than endorsing a national contract. Imposing a Western-style liberal democracy is obviously not the answer, as it reinforces the “puppet government” perception that is already so pervasive among ordinary Iraqis. Dodge supplies us with a relevant quote from Sir Henry Dobbs, British High Commissioner in Baghdad during the Mandate period:

[The ruler of Iraq] has to keep his eye constantly fixed on possible developments after our departure and to guard above all against the allegation that he is a puppet king, propped up by our bayonets, who is willing to sacrifice the true interests of the country in order to keep in our good graces. He can hope to strike roots in the soil only by an attitude of independence and we must therefore look with indulgence upon any opposition on his part to our wishes, when those wishes run counter to popular clamor.

For the US, this means watching Iraqi factions attempt to disenfranchise each other by endorsing a constitution that does not represent all segments of Iraqi society. It also means accepting a democratic government that adopts anti-Western views, rejects religious pluralism and endorses Islamic jurisprudence as the basis for family and personal status law.

Being a cynic’s cynic, I tend to believe that elections, constitutions and other democratic rituals have a superficial effect in Iraq and largely serve as “sovereignty markers” for US audiences anxious about troop withdrawals. During the Mandate period, British officials had to deal with a Parliament that strongly opposed long-term engagements in Mesopotamia, in addition to waning military strength and funding pressures (at the time, foreign and military commitments abroad amounted to about £300 million out of a total budget of approximately £1 billion). This eventually led to a decision to severely curtail Britain's long-term involvement in Iraq through the Mandate system. Instead, Parliament proposed taking on an advisory role to help build a viable state as quickly as possible. Britain subsequently accelerated Iraq’s entry into the League of Nations using “lipstick on a pig” solutions to satisfy entry requirements. These were largely cosmetic changes that implied substantial progress where little or none had been made. It would not surprise me if the American administration pursued these political milestones for the same reason: make Iraq look viable enough to justify significant withdrawal in the near future, regardless of whether or not the Iraqi government can maintain force monopoly or create/uphold legislation.

The question is: will the American administration be able to pin state failure on Iraqi politicians after US troops leave? Of course, I'm assuming Iraq (a) descends into Lebanon-like civil war or (b) is taken over by a strongman that shifts all power to the Presidency (or a Supreme Council) and effectively eliminates all popular representation by establishing a sham assembly.

Maybe there’s a more optimistic Scenario C? Anyone?